Looking at the 2nd round of the draft

If you’ve been following along for the last few weeks, I’ve begun to dissect the 2007 draft and started to ponder who the Phillies may end up with. While my belief is that you take the best available player all the time, our system is so devoid of position prospects, you almost hope that the best available guy is a position player, simply because of our lacking, but at the same time, pitching is still at a premium all around baseball, and this draft class is stocked with pitchers, especially prep pitchers. In previous entries I pondered the first round and the compensation round, hoping we’d be able to land guys like Devin Mesoraco and Nevin Griffith, and now we’ll look at who might be there in the 2nd round.

With the changes in the CBA, the compensation round this year is the longest in history, 35 picks, which means it will be longer than the actual first round and longer than the 2nd round. The Phillies will have the 84th overall pick, and based on Baseball America’s Top 100, here are the players we can expect to be available somewhere in that area. I’ll add a link for every player, click on their name below and it will load their page at minorleaguebaseball.com, some will have videos now, some won’t.

80. James Adkins, LHP, Tennessee (No Video)

Adkins has a great slider, but his curve and change are well below average. I’m not generally a fan of college pitchers this early unless they are elite and just coming off an injury or a slumping season. Adkins has been good, but probably lacks the ceiling you’d want in a 2nd round pick.

81. David Kopp, RHP, Clemson (Video Available)

Kopp is another solid but unspectacular pitcher, but he has more upside than Adkins. He has three good pitches, but his control is spotty. He has a slinging motion with the ball from a lower arm slot, which gives his fastball good movement, but the control is worrisome. Some view him as a bit more raw with more projection, but also more risk.

82. Danny Payne, OF, Georgia Tech (No Video)

In Payne’s bio, they compare his body to Lenny Dykstra, and say he’s a “real ballplayer”, ie, he gets dirty and crashes into things……sounds like a Gillick guy. Payne is a good contact hitter, but doesn’t have a lot of power and isn’t fast, but he does have a good arm.

83. Matt Thompson, RHP, Santa Rosa JC (No Video)

Thomson, or Thompson (it’s spelled differently at BA and milb.com) is more projection than anything at this point, but does have a good low 90’s fastball and pitches off of it, which is good. His control is average, as is his slider is good with a chance to be better.

84. Jon Gilmore, 3B, High School, Iowa (Video Available)

Gilmore has gained a bunch of steam this season, mainly because of his offensive potential. I look at his swing, and I’m not a big fan. Couple that with his already questionable defensive ability, and I’d say he’s not really a 2nd round pick.

85. John Tolisano, 2B/SS, High School, Florida (No Video)

Tolisano is being looked at mainly as a 2B because he probably lacks the range for SS. He has good arm strength and offensive potential, but scouts don’t see a lot of projection in his body.

86. Travis Banwart, RHP, Wichita State (No Video)

Banwart’s profile isn’t on milb.com, so here’s a brief idea. He’s got an average four pitch mix, but his changeup is his best pitch. He’s 6’4, 205, so he has a durable pitcher’s body, and he’s been fairly consistent and actually pitched real well against other top prospects. He kind of reminds me of Andrew Carpenter, our 2nd round pick last year. Solid all around, nothing spectacular that really jumps out at you.

87. Corey Kluber, RHP, Stetson (No Video)

Kluber also doesn’t have a profile. He’s another 4 pitch guy with easy low 90’s velocity, but doesn’t really have the ability to consistently put guys away, and BA thinks he’s more of a 5th starter than anything else. They predict him as a 3rd rounder, but he could go late in the 2nd.

88. Sean Morgan, RHP, Tulane (No Video)

Morgan has one of the best sliders in the draft, but also has a very violent delivery, and because of it, he lacks good control/command. His other pitchers are average, with an 88-91 mph fastball. Again, not much here in the way of upside unless you can turn him into a reliever and fast track him, which might be the best bet with his violent delivery and his lack of a good 3rd pitch.

Other interesting guys to consider here

Eddie Kunz, RHP, Oregon State (Video Available)

Kunz has a great fastball with a lot of life, as you can see in the video, and his slider is good as well. The problem is that he lacks a changeup or a split to get out lefties. If he can learn something to keep lefties off his fastball, he could be a closer. If not, he’s probably more of a setup guy used primarily against right handed batters. He might be a reach in the 2nd round.

Victor Sanchez, 3B, High School, California (Video Available)

Sanchez seems like an interesting guy to me. His value will be tied to whether or not he can stay at 3B. Right now, he looks fine defensively, and his biggest asset is his power potential down the road, as he has a fluid swing. The 3B crop is real strong with guys like Vitters and Dominguez out of California almost locks to be Top 3 and Top 15 picks, so Sanchez gets overlooked a bit.

Brandon Hamilton, RHP, High School, Alabama (Video Available)

If I had confidence in the Phillies in terms of “teaching and instructing”, this would be my pick. Hamilton has been in the mid 90’s consistently, but he lacks command and control of most all of his pitches. BA calls his delivery “violent”, but it doesn’t look too bad in the video above. The Phillies are better at developing pitchers than hitters, so maybe he’s my guy.

Travis Mattair, 3B, High School, Washington (Video Available)

Mattair is a really good athlete, and is already 6’4, 215 lbs. He is more projection than substance right now, but the belief is that he’ll succeed at the next year, mainly because he has a wood bat geared swing and he is a superior athlete. His makeup is also rated off the charts. Looking at his swing and doing more reading about him, I really like what I see here.

Jonathon Bachanov, RHP, High School, Florida (Video Available)

Bachanov is a tall, projectable RHP who throws anywhere from 88-96 mph. He is more projection than anything else, but at times has had an overpowering fastball and excellent curve, but the key will be consistently, repeating his mechanics, and focusing on command/control. His delivery reminds me a little bit of Jake Peavy, from a slightly higher arm slot.

Matt West, 3B, High School, Texas (Video Available)

West was better defensively than offensively up until this season, when he started to rake, especially at the beginning of the year. He’s trailed off a bit, which means he will probably go in the 2nd or 3rd round. West is still raw offensively and has hitting issues with pulling off the ball, and that scares me a tad, because the Phillies track record with developing raw hitters isn’t the best.

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Ultimately, what the Phillies do at 1 and 1A will determine where they go with this pick. I’d love a guy like Hamilton, who has future #1 potential but is very raw, but the more likely option is one of the safe college pitchers. Mattair and Hamilton would be my two preferences, with Bachanov also a decent risk.

11 thoughts on “Looking at the 2nd round of the draft

  1. I think Adkins would be a very good pick and Gilmore is very intriguing if we don’t get a 3B in earlier rounds.

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  2. Words truly cannot express just how much I don’t want Adkins. Nothing personal against the kid, but he seems to me to be the classic example of the overused (dare I say abused?) college pitcher….. I like Payne and appreciate the way he plays the game – he’d be a fan favorite in Philly, no doubt. I look more for tools, but I wouldn’t mind his selection in round 2 if there are no better alternatives….. Gilmore’s actions are much too long for the infield. He’s a decent athlete, but I don’t think he runs well enough for RF….. Tolisano’s actions make him look like a legitimate ss/2b prospect, but he always seems to make mistakes. I belive their already projecting him to the outfield….. If he’s still available in round 2, I’d take Mattair no matter who the Phils took with their first two picks. He sounds like another Scott Rolen – I mean that in a positive way.

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  3. Glad I’ve got some backing on Adkins. What are your thoughts on where Mattair will go? BA had him ranked lower than I thought he’d be. Would he be a drastic reach in the comp round?

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  4. Seen Adkins pitch on the telly- total junkballer, if he ever makes it- it will be after a surgery or two and sometime in his late 20’s I think.

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  5. As for Gilmore, I like him, but his swing doesn’t look like he can take the ball to the opposite field very well.

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  6. PGCrosschecker.com just put out their Washington state report and Mattair is now the 2nd rated prospect, just behind Hagadone of UW and Sampson. He might not be there at 84. But, the really interesting thing in this report is the 12th rated prospect is Ryan Verdugo, the Phillies 43rd round pick in 2005. I remember he was going to go to a D-III school out of HS, but decided at the last minute to go the juco route. The D-III coach was pretty bummed about it. Verdugo blew out his elbow, tranferred to another juco and has done so well this spring that he’s now committed to LSU. And… he’s unlikely to sign because he has such a high price tag. It’s interesting how things work out sometimes.

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  7. Nope. Taylor is the only guy I can see signing, but for some reason, he’s not getting any recognition by the big sites. He had a pretty good JuCo season.

    This was interesting from a chat with Callis today

    greg (toronto): Any word on who the Blue Jays are targeting in the 1st round?

    SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:31 PM ET ) I keep hearing they want infielders and catchers. They might even take two high schoolers with their two picks. In an ideal world, they’d get Devin Mesoraco (Pennsylvania HS C) and Kozma, but not sure both will fall to them.

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    Mesoraco has really rocketed up draft boards.

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