After I wrote last Friday’s article about the draft, Jim Callis at Baseball America posted his first mock draft, trying to predict where everyone would go in the first round. Here are his picks from 13-23
13. CLE – Blake Beaven, RHP
14. ATL – Jason Heyward, OF
15. CIN – Kevin Ahrens, SS/3B
16. TOR – Matt Dominguez, 3B
17. TEX – Julio Borbon, OF
18. STL – Matt Wieters, C
19. PHI – Devin Mesoraco, C
20. LAD – Josh Smoker, LHP
21. TOR – Pete Kozma, SS
22. SFG – Casey Weathers, RHP
23. SDP – James Simmons, RHP
This is a real interesting 11 picks here. Heyward would be a dream guy to get, based on his package of tools, but it’s highly unlikely both he and Smoker slip past ATL, since both are Georgia products, and Atlanta has an affinity for taking local products. I’ve been reading more about Ahrens, and I like him more now than I did before. Dominguez seems to have slipped a bit, but I think it’s a similar case to Chris Marerro last year, where scouts fell in love with Adrian Cardenas and Marrero’s stock slipped, as Dominguez’ teammate Mike Moustakas has garnered all of the attention over the last two months. I do NOT want the Phillies to draft Borbon, which means they probably will if he’s available. Another speedy outfielder without power, not what we really need. The most interesting name on the list is obviously Matt Wieters. Like many of the premium guys in this draft, he’s advised by Scott Boras, and Boras is doing his usual routine, basically demanding major league contracts for his college guys. Wieters is the 2nd or 3rd ranked talent on most everyone’s board, but like Andrew Miller last year, Stephen Drew and Justin Upton before them, he could slide down the draft until someone is willing to give him the dough. Callis has him pegged for the Cardinals, but how eager will they be to give him a major league deal with a young catcher in Yadier Molina locked up for a while? If he slides to Philadelphia, Gillick has worked with Boras in a better fashion than Ed Wade did, so I don’t see the Boras factor being a huge deal. Wieters probably would need at least a year and a half in the minors before he’s ready, but not much longer. Switch hitting catchers with power are rare, and he’s also been better than expected defensively.
The true gem on that list, in terms of guys that are more likely to there at 19, is Josh Smoker. Baseball America just released their capsules on the Top 100 guys available, and Smoker ranked as the 16th best prospect, on pure talent. Here is the scouting report:
Scouting Report: It was apparent Smoker was bound for success when, as a freshman in 2004, he set a school strikeout record with 126 in 62 innings. He broke the record in 2005, when he amassed 137 in 75 innings, helping his team win Georgia’s 2-A championship. Smoker was named co-player of the year in the state, sharing the honors with Buster Posey, now at Florida State. He has been a mainstay on the wood bat and showcase tour for years, and has a portfolio as deep as any player in the draft, including college players. He’ll warm up with six pitches and uses them all in games, though his 91-92 mph fastball, 74-76 mph curve and low- to mid-80s split-finger fastball are his bread and butter. He also flashes a changeup and slider. When he stays over the rubber and doesn’t attempt to overthrow, he shows above-average command of all of his stuff. He’ll run his fastball in on righthanders, snap his curve for a swing-and-miss pitch and lean on his splitter for strikeouts, as it at times can be unhittable. He pitches with fervor and guile, endearing himself to teammates and scouts alike. Smoker isn’t expected to get much bigger, but he’s athletic and durable, profiling as a No. 2 or 3 starter. He could go as high as No. 14 to Atlanta.
I like pretty much everything I see there. Minorleaguebaseball.com hasn’t posted a video of Smoker yet, but there are videos of a bunch of other guys, and more are being added, so keep checking back. Let’s look at some videos of guys that will possibly be there at 19
Blake Beaven, RHP (High School)
Beaven throws a hard sinker and a good slider, but I’m not so sure I like his delivery. He seems to sling the ball a bit, and I wonder how that will translate to wear and tear on his arm.
Kevin Ahrens, SS/3B (High School)
Ahrens will move to 3B after being drafted, and he profiles as above average defensively, and he’s learning to switch hit, showing the ability for power from both sides. I like him a lot, and he’s definitely gaining steam as the draft gets closer, which means he might not be available at 19.
Matt Harvey, RHP (High School)
Harvey entered the spring as the top prep pitcher available, but was surpassed by Rick Porcello, more on the strength of Porcello’s spring pitching for Seton Hall Prep than his own shortcomings. The biggest knock on him is that he is a Boras client, but there is a lot to like in his power stuff and delivery. Harvey throws in the low 90’s now and has a ton of projection left.
Michael Main, RHP (High School)
I might be the only one around here that likes Main, but there’s just something about his delivery that strikes me as being very good. He throws real hard, and still has some projection left. Some are bothered by the fact that he’s a standout two way guy, and that the Phillies always seem to choose the wrong path, but they stuck with the right path on Kyle Drabek, and I’m convinced they’d do the same with Main.
Devin Mesoraco, C (High School)
Mesoraco is picking up a ton of steam and rising up draft boards. While I thought he might be a reach at 19, it looks like maybe that is the right range for him. A potential 5 tool catcher is quite rare. He might actually have more upside than Wieters.
Casey Weathers, RHP (Vanderbilt)
The top college reliever, Weathers throws hard and likely will move quickly through anyone’s system. Then again, if any team would keep him in A ball for two seasons, it’s the Phillies.
The other interesting area to ponder is the compensation round. The Phillies have the 37th overall pick, the 5th in the compensation round, for the Indians signing David Dellucci. There could be a bunch of really interesting guys available here, and here are my early favorites..
Nevin Griffith, RHP (High School)
Griffith has really raised his stock this spring. He has a real whippy arm motion and already dots the low 90’s, with room to add even more velocity. He has good mound presence and baseball aptitude, which should bode well for steady growth and improvement. I just really like the look of his stuff and the projection here. Based on his pure stuff, he could be a 1st rounder, and if he drops to 37, I really want the Phillies to take him.
Aaron Poreda, LHP (College)
Pordea is real raw for a college pitcher, but he has a huge arm, and just needs to learn how to set up hitters and get them out, as well as refine his secondary offerings. Despite that, he regularly throws in the low-mid 90’s and his fastball has a ton of life on it.
Will Middlebrooks, 3B/RHP (High School)
I like Middlebrooks more as a 3B than a pitcher. He’s a quality athlete despite below average speed, but should be a defensive asset at 3B as well as an above average hitter with power. Because he pitched in high school, no one has to doubt his arm strength at 3B.
Jack McGeary, LHP/1B (High School)
McGeary comfortably threw in the 86-90 range and has more when he needs it, plus there is still a bit of projection on him, even though he’s already 6’3, 200lbs. He’s likely to be able to pitch comfortably in the 89-91 range, and hit 93 at times, so I’m not overly worried about his velo. He has a clean delivery and a good curveball that will be plus, but the key is the changeup. He has a scholarship to Stanford, so the key will be getting a read on his signability.
That’s all for right now. What the Phillies do with their first pick will determine what I’d like to see them do with their supplemental selection. If they take Wieters or Mesoraco, then I’d prefer Griffith in the supplemental. If they take Josh Smoker in the first, then I wouldn’t mind Middlebrooks in the supplemental. It’s going to be an interesting few weeks to be sure.
Phuture Phillies 
Having viewed all the video clips and even thinking back on the prospects I’ve seen in person and on TV over the past couple of years, there isn’t anybody who impresses me more than Mesoraco did in his short video clip. The natural strength and quickness, both defensively and at the plate, is rare. I mean, 4.3 home to first… for a catcher? Ridiculous. I’m generally not big on HS catchers being drafted this high, but after seeing this clip, I’d be ecstatic if the Phillies took him. If not Mesoraco (and assuming Heyward is also gone), then Ahrens is my choice at 19… assuming he isn’t gone too. If they’re all gone, then maybe Brett Cecil or Matt Dominguez, with the hope that they can fix his swing.
With the supplemental pick, I’m thinking that rhp Kyle Blair would be a nice pickup. The other day I rewatched his performance in last summer’s Aflac game and, while his line wasn’t great, his fastball (90-92 with good sink) and, in particular, his curve (upper 70’s) were outstanding. My preference is Chris Withrow, but it looks like he’s risen above this pick.
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Yeah, when I first head DM’s name, I assumed it would be a reach in the latter part of the first round, but at this point, it looks like we might be lucky to land him if that’s the way the Phillies decide to go. Ahrens has been compared to Chipper Jones….not a bad comp. BA has Withrow ranked #44 overall in terms of talent, so he might still be there. He’s apparently got a decent commitment to Baylor as a two way guy, not sure what his price will be.
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JE, what do you think of Justin Jackson? I think he’s suffered from a case of “draft fatigue”, where scouts have seen him so many times (especially when they were coming to scout Maybin), that they started nitpicking and looking for reasons to not like him. He was viewed as a first round talent up until this spring, and it seems he’s slid a bit. If we could get him in the 2nd round, I’d be thrilled. Seems like a quality athlete with a great arm and good bat speed with first round talent. Thoughts? Scouting video below..
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2007/index.jsp?mc=jackson
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Not just Maybin, but Josh Thrailkill, too. I hadn’t thought of the “draft fatigue” angle, but three straight years under heavy scrutiny from scouts is quite a burden. As for his skills, he has everything you want in a shortstop, defensively – size, range, arm strength, soft hands, actions. BA reports that he may be a bit “flashy” and that’s turned off some scouts, but as far as I know, his character has never been an issue. His bat seems to be his potential weakness. He drew a couple of walks in the Aflac game and my impression of him watching the game was that he was a patient hitter. After re-watching the game a couple of times, he seemed more reluctant than patient – the dreaded Abreu “passive walk”. His swing needs work, but it isn’t that bad that it can’t be fixed. IMO, he has a heck of a lot more raw talent than just about any other pure shortstop in the draft – I exclude kids like Ryan Dent and Nick Noonan, because I think they’ll move to another position. I like him and would be perfectly happy with his selection, at 37 or 84.
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I’m real interested to see what happens with Latos and Walden as well. Latos is considered a Top 30 talent, Walden a Top 50 or 60 talent, and that could make things a bit more interesting. The more I watch the Mesoraco video, the more I like him.
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Where did you see the video for Mesoraco?
As for Justin Jackson- while he looks like a fine athlete, he just doesn’t look too proficient as a hitter- he looks a lot like Carl Henry coming out of highschool to me. There isn’t a shortstop out there i’d pick before the third round- and oh if someone would only let me do the picking!
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http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2007/index.jsp?mc=mesoraco
Go there, then click the “Watch Now” button.
As for SS, Kozma is really the only true shortstop worthy of a first round pick, but the Phillies won’t go that way. Right now, my dream order at 19 is
Heyward
Parker
Smoker
Mesoraco
I think we can grab a great C prospect in the comp round if we don’t take one at 19, and I still think I’d rather have one of the 3 guys above him, and maybe even Kevin Ahrens.
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Didn’t really put on much of a show with those throws did he. Nice swing though, looks like he’s gonna be a Varitek size guy as he fills in. Very rare that you find a catcher who as described with ‘fast-twich’ muscle athleticism. The only real drawback you can seen to count against him is that he’s got limited exposure to good competition playing in Puxatawney. Mighty tempting to pick him though. Geez if Heyward or Wieters slid anywhere’s near the phils on draft day that would be one exciting 10 minute stretch. Heyward has got to go top 10 though.
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Those throws were filmed over the summer when he was just beginning to throw after TJ surg. He has fully recovered and his throws are much more impressive now than in the video shows.
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Jim Callis from BA answered my question today in his chat, dealing with this topic…
I’d still prefer Smoker, but I’d be happy with any of the 3 at this point.
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I was reading in the Punxsutawney newspaper this morning that Pirates GM David Littlefield was in recently to check out Mesoraco, a lifelong Pirates fan. The Pirates also moved one time “catcher of the future” Neil Walker, another local kid, to 3b during FIL or spring training, potentially clearing the way for Mesoraco as the club’s new “catcher of the future”. Our only chance at Mesoraco may be if the Cubs pass on Vitters at 3 and the Pirates pick Vitters over Mesoraco.
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If they take Mesoraco over Vitters, well, that would be astounding, and could shake up the first round.
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Here’s Jonathan Mayo’s mock at mlb.com:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070523&content_id=1981250&vkey=draft2007&fext=.jsp
1. Tampa Bay Devil Rays: David Price
2. Kansas City Royals: Rick Porcello
3. Chicago Cubs: Jarrod Parker
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Josh Vitters (though he hints about Mesoraco)
5. Baltimore Orioles: Ross Detwiler
6. Washington Nationals: Matt Wieters
7. Milwaukee Brewers: Daniel Moskos
8. Colorado Rockies: Phillipe Aumont
9. Arizona Diamondbacks: Mike Moustakas
10. San Francisco Giants: Josh Smoker
11. Seattle Mariners: Casey Weathers
12. Florida Marlins: Jason Heyward
13. Cleveland Indians: Matt Dominguez
14. Atlanta Braves: Matt Harvey
15. Cincinnati Reds: Kevin Ahrens
16. Toronto Blue Jays: Devin Mesoraco
17. Texas Rangers: Blake Beavan
18. St. Louis Cardinals: Matt LaPorta
19. Philadelphia Phillies: Michael Burgess
20. Los Angeles Dodgers: Madison Bumgarner
This would be a bit of a nightmare to me because all the prospects that I’ve become totally enamored with at various times over the past year (Vitters, Moustakas, Smoker, Dominguez, Ahrens, Mesoraco) are all gone.
If not Burgess (whose name is being mentioned as a possibility by several sites), these names come to mind:
Andrew Brackman – underperforming, fatigued, Boras client, but huge potential
Brett Cecil – might be the one
Beau Mills – DH-type, no thanks
Madison Bumgarner – too raw for me
Michael Main – quintessential high risk/reward prospect
Will Middlebrooks – too much of a reach?
Chris Withrow – rising up the charts
Kyle Lotzkar – ditto
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Burgess might be the player I would like the least. If the draft broke like that, I’d actually prefer Mills and Bumgarner over Burgess.
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Honestly, I read Mayo’s stuff, and I don’t really take any of it to heart. I just don’t think he’s
a. connected enough to really know
b. well, same as A.
I was thinking about maybe doing a mock here of the first round next week, and getting as many people as possible who want to participate to give me their Top 30 guess as well. If anyone is interested, send me an email, the link is on the right.
Right now, my gut tells me Mesoraco is going to be there at 19. The Cubs love Vitters, I don’t see how they won’t take him if he is there, and he will be. The Nationals won’t take Wieters, in fact, they are the best bet to take Max Scherzer, who Mayo didn’t even list in his Top 20. The Giants won’t draft a high school pitcher I don’t think. Why would the Cardinals take LaPorta, who is a 1B only? They have Pujols for the next 10 years. Taking Burgess would really suck, but it’s a Phillies type move for sure.
Brackmann will be gone in the first 15 packs, I’m relatively sure of that. I like Main, Baumgarner is ok, Cecil, eh, Middlebrooks was my hope in the Comp round, don’t think he’ll go in the first 30 picks. I like what I’ve read about Withrow, but I’ve never seen him pitch.
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Keith Law answered a question for me…
JM (MD): Keith, please, pretty please, assure me the Phillies won’t make the mistake of taking Burgess at #19. Who do you see going at that slot at the moment?
SportsNation Keith Law: (1:21 PM ET ) I don’t know that it would be a mistake, but there will probably be a better player on the board. I think one of the top 10 HS arms will be there (Bumgarner, Beavan, Alderson, maybe Harvey if he falls on signability/Boras), and if they want to try to quick-fix it, most of the college closers will be there (Fields, Cecil, Weathers).
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Another interesting tidbit from Law
Chip (NYC): Where do the Yankees go with the 30th pick?
SportsNation Keith Law: (2:02 PM ET ) I have no idea where it started, but there’s some talk they like Devin Mesoraco, the HS catcher/power hitter from Punxsutawney. I offer two disclaimers: I don’t know how valid the rumor is, and he may not even get to them now.
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