The latest player profile will cover a guy that a lot of people are talking about, outfielder/DH Jeremy Slayden. The Phillies, especially over the last two seasons or so, have seen their system produce very few position prospects even worth talking about, after graduating all star caliber talent like Jimmy Rollins, Pat Burrell, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. With Slayden, many feel we may actually have a true hitter on our hands, as opposed to the “quality athletes who can’t play” that the system has produced an abundance of in recent years. But as Kevin Goldstein pointed out in his Q/A for us, most great players are quality athletes, the trick is just teaching them how to play the game and how to become baseball guys. With Slayden, it seems he already knows how to play, but the question is, does he have the tools?

The Phillies selected Jeremy Slayden in the 8th round of the 2005 draft out of Georgia Tech, a year after he was selected in the 18th round by Athletics, and 4 years after he was drafted by the San Diego Padres in the 20th round of the 2001 draft. Slayden’s college career started off with a bang, as he set a freshman HR record at Georgia Tech, slugging 18 bombs in his first collegiate season. He had gained a bunch of steam heading into his sophomore year but slumped to a .294 batting average in 2003. In 2004, his junior year, he suffered a torn rotator cuff in his throwing shoulder and logged only 35 AB’s. He rebounded a bit in 2005 as a redshirt junior, posting a .352/.450/.593 line, leading to the Phillies drafting him in the 8th round and signing him for $95,000. Slayden was ranked the #25 prospect in the Phillies organization after 2005, and the #26 prospect in the org after 2006. So, let’s dig into his numbers first…

College (I’m omitting his 2004, since he only had 35 AB)

2002: 310 PA, .348/.442/.625 — 89 H — 38.2% XBH — 39 BB (12.6%) — 51 K (16.5%)
2003: 244 PA, .294/.394/.523 — 64 H — 46.9% XBH — 26 BB (10.7%) — 54 K (22.1%)
2005: 238 PA, .352/.450/.593 — 70 H — 31.4% XBH — 24 BB (10.1%) — 47 K (19.8%)

So, really, his career did kind of go downhill in most areas after his sophomore struggles and his shoulder injury. While he did hit 13 HR in his junior year (4th season, as he redshirted), he had only 9 2B and 0 triples, and thus, the lowest extra base hit percentage of his college career. His walk rate also remained the same as his 2003 year, and he barely cut down on the strikeouts. His .352 average showed the contact skills, but overall, nothing overly impressive here, especially for a guy who was an equivalent senior in terms of age. After being drafted, the Phillies sent Slayden to Batavia, where he accumulated these numbers…

2005:  228 PA, .268/.373/.464 — 52 H — 38.5% XBH — 28 BB (12.3%) — 45 K (19.7%)

Some promising signs here. The New York Penn League is a brutal hitting environment, with an average batting line of .255/.335/.368 in 2005, so Slayden’s slugging % looks much better in that context. Batavia inflates doubles, but almost equally suppresses home runs, which makes his numbers look fine when adjusting for the league and park. The problem, though is that he was 23 and raking against high school pitchers and a few college guys with dead arms. After a brief stay in extended spring training, Slayden was sent to Lakewood…

2006: 454 PA, .310/.381/.510 — 124 H — 46.0% XBH — 41 BB (9.3%) — 89 K (19.6%)

2006 was a pretty interesting season for Slayden. At age 24, he was 3 years too old for the South Atlantic League, but he tuned up Sally pitching and posted an .893 OPS in a tough hitter’s park. The average line in the SAL was .255/.331/.376, and Lakewood’s park greatly suppressed offense, with the lowest runs scored average in the entire league, while also proving to be the toughest park in the SAL to hit home runs. In an ironic twist, Slayden actually had better home numbers than road numbers….a head scratcher to be sure. His extra base hit percentage shot up to the highest mark of his career, either pro or college, while his walk rate hit a low mark, and his K rate remained fairly constant. If we can look at his 5 full seasons and draw any conclusion, it’s that his swing and miss percentage has remained nearly the same regardless of level. The contact skills were there in 2006, but the walk rate dropped….was he just facing pitching that was too inferior, and he didn’t wait to get walked?

His small sample size for 2007 looks like this

2007: 187 PA, .318/.444/.517 — 48 H — 35.4 XBH — 34 BB (18.2%) — 33 K (17.6%)

First off, the Phillies decision to not start Slayden in Reading, in his age 25 season, is beyond puzzling. A 25 year old should be destroying the ball in the Florida State League, and Slayden’s numbers, while good, don’t really scream “monster” at this point. His extra base hit percentage is down, but his walk rate has shot through the rough, while his K rate has come down a bit. Are teams now just pitching around him? Is he just becoming a more selective, patient hitter? Maybe it’s a bit of both. You’d have to assume a promotion to Reading will come before the end of the year, and then we’ll have a better idea of where he stands.

From a scouting perspective, the book on Slayden is simple. Because of the arm injury, he’ll never have a good throwing arm. The thought is that he’ll be passable in terms of throwing in left field, but he also has below average speed. We can deal with Pat Burrell’s tortoise-like pace in left because he has a strong, accurate arm. Slayden probably projects to have Burrell-esque speed, but doesn’t have the same arm, which means he ideally would be a DH….but of course, the NL doesn’t use the DH. So while he isn’t athletic and doesn’t have a good defensive profile, his bat will have to carry him, and he’s hit so far at every level, even if the Phillies are moving him too slowly.

Last week, I offered up a poll question to try and garner opinions on what you thought of Slayden’s career path and likely role going forward, and here are the results, from the 27 of you that voted;

Career minor leaguer: 0 (0%)
Four A player: 8 votes (30%)
4th/5th OF: 11 votes (41%)
Average starting OF: 1 vote (4%)
All Star Corner OF: 7 votes (26%)

The majority of you see him as either a 4th/5th OF or a 4A guy, while 26% of you also felt like he had all star potential. Looking at everything in his numbers and his scouting profile, I personally lean toward 4th/5th OF as well. Slayden’s plate discipline this season raises his stock a bit, but not a great deal. He’s facing largely inexperienced pitching, and he should be raking and drawing as many or more walks than strikeouts. The extra base hit percentage has dropped, and he’s gone to a more friendly hitting environment, which doesn’t really add up. The big thing, though, is that he is 25 years old. Most excellent prospects are in the majors by age 23, most good prospects have made the show by age 25, and if you haven’t made it by age 25, the chances of you being an impact player in the big leagues in your career is very remote. Sure, a guy like Ryan Howard was still toiling in the minors when he was 25, but he was blocked at the big league level. Slayden is in High A, and won’t make a big league impact until at least the age of 26, and let’s face it, he doesn’t have Ryan Howard level talent. If he continues to draw walks and hit for some power, he could be a good 4th OF/pinch hitter, or even a starter on a poor team, but he ideally profiles as a DH. That could ultimately lead to him being part of a trade if he can’t adapt to playing 1B and being used to pinch hit. It’s hard to imagine he will have big trade value, based on his age and lack of defensive position, so the Phillies might be best suited to using him as a reserve OF/1B if he can handle it, getting what they can out of him, and calling it a day.

I’m curious about feedback and what people think. 7 of you think he has all star potential, and I’d like to hear why, because this is a really interesting topic to me. Also, if you have an idea for the next profile, suggest away. Click the player profile tag on the left side to see the guys we’ve covered already.