We’ve started to look at the 2007 draft here, and at about a month away, things will begin to take shape over the next few weeks, with players raising and lowering their respective stock and settling in somewhere on the overall board. Baseball America has updated their draft tracker, and a few guys in our general area have changed spots. Lets see who has moved up and down, who might be within reach, and who has probably moved out of reach.
The previous draft tracker for the picks in and around our pick at #19 looked like this
13. Blake Beaven, RHP (High School, Texas)
14. Matt Dominguez, 3B (High School, California)
15. Beau Mills, 1B/3B (Lewis-Clark State, Idaho)
16. Mike Moustakas, 3B/C (High School, California)
17. Phillipe Amount, RHP (High School, Canada)
18. Matt Mangini, 3B (Oklahoma State)
19. Jarrod Parker, RHP (High School, Indiana)
20. Joe Savery, LHP (Rice)
21. Casey Weathers, RHP (Vanderbilt)
22. Brett Cecil, LHP (Maryland)
23. Josh Smoker, LHP (High School, Georgia)
The current draft tracker of picks 13-23 looks like this
13. Phillipe Amount, RHP
14. Matt Dominguez, 3B
15. Blake Beaven, RHP
16. Josh Smoker, LHP
17. Beau Mills, 1B/3B
18. Matt LaPorta, 1B
19. Michael Main, RHP/OF (High School, Florida)
20. Casey Weathers, RHP
21. Brett Cecil, LHP
22. Julio Borbon, OF (Tennessee)
23. Nick Schmidt, LHP (Arkansas)
So, here’s where we stand. Amount has moved up 4 spots, Dominguez has stayed the same. Beaven slid a few spots, Smoker up a few spots, Mills and LaPorta are slipping a bit, Borbon’s stock is dropping more quickly, and Main’s stock is rising quickly. Main is a freakish athlete, throwing in the mid 90’s consistently, as well as running incredible times to 1B as a hitter. He’s still somewhat raw, but clearly has a huge arm. Borbon is a guy I don’t want to see drafted, because he’s more of a contact guy with speed and little power, we don’t need more of those guys. Mills and LaPorta are almost certainly not going to be picked by us if they are there. Smoker is a guy I like a bit, but I don’t see him getting to #19, same deal with Dominguez.
The true wildcards in the draft are Andrew Brackmann and Matt Weiters. Both are top 5 talents, but might slide in the draft because they are advised by Scott Boras. If they slide out of the top 5, it could greatly alter who is available at our spot. While it’s highly unlikely either guy will slide to #19, surely they’d be at the top of the wish list, especially Weiters. Right now, my “wish list” would look like this, in order of preference, not counting Weiters and Brackmann
Dominguez
Beaven
Main
Smoker
Weathers
Weathers, a college closer, is intriguing, and he has good stuff, but I worry that the Phillies would take him and not fast track him, like you should do with most college closers. Our bullpen could obviously use the help, but if one of the other 4 guys on my list are there, I’d prefer to go that route. Another intriguing name to watch is Devin Mesaraco, a high school catcher from Punxsutawney PA. He’s a potential 5 tool catcher, and is listed at #30 on the BA Tracker. It was previously thought he might be available in the sandwich round, but that doesn’t look like the case at this point.
In the coming weeks, I should have a Q/A with Jim Salisbury, who does a great job covering the Phillies and the draft for The Inquirer, and maybe he can shed some light on what the Phillies are planning to do. Until then, stay tuned..
Phuture Phillies 
We need a 3B and a C, would be great to go for a position player in the first round, but how great would it be to have a Lefthanded outman named Smoker!
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What about this two-way player out of Albany State University; DeMario Cash. He has the prototypical body at 6’1, 200.lbs.P/3b. DeMario was effective at the Division II level this season with a 10-2 record on the mound and lead his team at the plate leading his conference in homeruns and RBI’s. His strongest attributes is his powerful arm and consistent bat with quick hands. He has been overlooked by some clubs but worth the time. A fierce competitor with impressive instincts. contact;dcashusa@yahoo.com
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I don’t like Main, in principle, because he’s one of the two-way
guys who are very difficult to peg as either a potential pitcher
or hitter. Given the Phillies’ track record with guys like that,
I say stay away from Main.
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I don’t know, everything I’ve read about Main I like. It’s not like he’s just a decent prospect both pitching and in the outfield, he’s a first rounder in either spot. This was the report from Perfect Game on Main last summer
6/2006 — Perfect Game National, Fayetteville, Ark.
Mussina Body. Arm is lightning quick, live and produces electric stuff. FB tops at 97 and sits at 94 mph with good, late, heavy arm-side bore. Knocked the bat out of some good hitters’ hands here. Curve 77-79 mph with hard, tight rotation with downer action. Changeup 76-80 mph, late at the plate, arm-side fade with heavy sink, good arm-speed and deception on the pitch. Weaknesses are he overthrows at times to try and light up the radar guns and at times leaves the ball up and over the plate. Can pitch at 94 though. Stuff projects down the road to have three plus pitches with command, can be a No. 1 type starter in the future. Needs to work on maintaining delivery, it has some effort in it now.
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And here’s a video of Main. Offense in the beginning, pitching near the end. I like his arm whip and deception
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2007/index.jsp?mc=main
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Well, I understand, but I see it as a crapshoot. Of course I
know nothing about the guy other than what you just quoted. I
am just very leery about two-way prospects.
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Plenty of elite high school guys are two way players though. I think most people see his future as a pitcher. I understand the concern, for sure. However, I think high school guys are a bit different than college two way guys. Like, they may have messed up with Costanzo, but he wasn’t a blue chip guy one way or the other, he was pretty decent at both. If they’d have turned him into a reliever, for all we know he’d just be another Nick Evangelista.
I’d love a good power bat, either a 3B or OF, but I honestly don’t think a sure fire guy like that will be available.
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I wouldn’t touch Michael Main with a 10-foot pole. Sounds like a guy whose arm problems will reocur. Jarrod Parker looks great.
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Parker will be gone in the first 12 picks. He won’t get past Florida.
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Baseball America just projected Matt Wieters to fall all the way to the Cards at 18. That seems shocking, but if the Boras ties led him all the way to the phils that would be (obviously) a fantastic pick.
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I have the same negative vibe about Main as well- thought at this point perhaps its just arbitrary- though I havn’t liked the motions of a lot of guys projected for the first round that i’ve seen in scouting video.
Has there been a number out there for Wieter’s salary bonus? I’m sure Boras is probably looking for something near 10 million. I’m not sold that Wieter’s can hit, but I wouldn’t mind a good old fashion holdout- though nowadays that would last about 2 months, and a major league contract for something around 6-7 million. Though i’m sure most teams will not have much interest in committing to that. He’s a guy that comes with a lot of hype, who hasn’t really played up to that billing.
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Switch hitting catchers with power are rare. Wieters might have been overhyped a bit, but he’s still a solid talent, and is probably only 2 years from the majors. While he won’t be Ivan Rodriguez defensively, he’ll probably be at least an average defensive catcher, and the ability to hit .290 with 20-25 HR from the C position is a really valuable asset. My guess is that he’ll want a total package of about 6-8 million. If he’s there at 19, I think it’s a no brainer to take him.
I guess I’m one of the few that like Main. His mechanics seem ok to me, and they can always be cleaned up after he turns pro. It’s tough to really knock a lot of high school pitchers, because many will have their deliveries altered upon turning pro. I’m more concerned with arm strength, arm whip, and overall baseball aptitude. Main is a freakish athlete, and he already throws consistently in the mid 90’s. I’d take him at 19 over a lower ceiling guy.
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IF..Parker is available, don’t pass because of size. He’s a “big” 6-1 and will weigh 185-190 next year.
Jarrod Parker is the most finished product of all the high school pitchers.
See Keith Law’s column from a few days back.
Compact delivery, great control on the corners and is very good in tough situations. ERA as of today is under 0.15. One earned run in 48 innings. Best control of all the 92+ mph prospects out there including Price.
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