Just some musings to think about…
* Adrian Cardenas has kicked it into high gear. Check out his splits from April and May
April: 85 AB (91 PA), 4.4% BB, 18.7% K, 26.1% XBH
May: 39 AB (45 PA), 8.9% BB, 8.9% K, 36.4% XBH
That’s more like it…
* Josh Outman’s control has been really rough, and as I highlighted over the winter in his prospect grade, his command/control would be the biggest hurdle for him to overcome in his effort to gain elite prospect status. He’s allowed 27 walks in 41.2 IP, a terrible ratio, and only has 35 strikeouts. More troubling is the fact that lefties are actually tuning him up more than righties, hitting .303 against him, compared to only .270 against RHB. I had high hopes for Outman, but I worried that either he’d be excellent or below average…so far, below average.
* I have a feeling that Gus Milner is going to become the new “Jeremy Slayden”…a guy who rakes in a league he’s too old for, but isn’t moved up for whatever reason. As of now, he’s hitting .322/.395/.504, with 14 extra base hits and unlike Slayden, is a solid defender in RF. While Pat Gillick has been quicker to promote guys in seasons than Ed Wade, he still has missed the boat on a few guys in the last year, including Slayden, Maloney, and now Milner.
* The next three promotions I’d like to see: D’Arby Myers from extended spring training to Lakewood, Andrew Carpenter and Jeremy Slayden to Reading. By mid June, Donald and Milner should get the bump to Clearwater, and maybe send Brad Harman back to Reading to give him a change of scenery.
* Speaking of Harman, he’s been one of the biggest disappointments of the 2007 season. I had him pegged for a big bounce-back, as the tools are clearly there, and his 2006 seemed more a product of off the field stuff out of his control. However, he’s really scuffling at Clearwater, having drawn only 4 walks in 130 PA’s, and compiling only 6 extra base hits. He’s still young, but at some point, the results are going to have to show up, or he’s going to slide out of the organization.
Phuture Phillies 
No question Slayden should be promoted yesterday. I’m not sure he shouldn’t be on the radar for a September callup if he hits at Reading, which I suspect he will. Even if he doesn’t have a defensive position, getting him some attention as a potential trade sweetener is worthwhile.
Exciting to see Cardenas getting it going with the lumber, but I still wish he’d boost the walk rate a little more. He drew a bunch last year. Still, that performance at 19 in full-season is very encouraging. He might be the best prospect in the organization now.
Given Carpenter’s experience and command, I agree he could be due for a challenge promotion. If Golson draws some walks (I think he had a bunch this weekend), I’d suggest he could get a shot at AA too.
Do you know anything about how Myers is doing in Extended?
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Nothing at all. I’ve put out a few e-mails, no one seems to know what’s up with him. I really wanted him to come to Lakewood in May, and after a month, if they felt he couldn’t handle full season ball, then send him to Williamsport. The thing is, he’ll play all of 2007 at age 18, so even if he’s in the NYPL, he’s still ahead of the curve for an elite prospect. The number of 18 year olds in full season ball you can probably count on 2 hands or 3 hands.
On Cardenas, I have a feeling he ends the season in the 10-11% BB rate, that’s just fine at this point, and the fact that his K rate is dropping is also quality.
Slayden, I’m going to do a profile on him later this week, but needless to say, I’m probably less optimistic on him than most Phillies fans are. Carpenter, I still don’t know what to make of him. He turns 22 in a few days, and he’s in High A. The top pitching prospects in High A are normally 20-21, so he’s a year old for the league as far as being an elite guy, but he’s still ok in terms of regular prospect years. His performance has been good, above average, but not dominant. I’d bet he gets promoted to Reading before the end of the summer, but we’ll see. I’d like to see him get a few more GB (currently at 1.37 GB:FB), that number should be around 1.75 or so for me to be happy. Decent K rate (7.21), but I’d rather it be above 8, closer to 9, and 2.71 BB/9 is workable for sure. I liked his chances this year, he’ll certainly be in the Top 10 for the Phillies next year, but he’s not looking like a front of the rotation guy quite yet.
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Though Lakewood lost 8-4 and Drabek had a somewhat rough outing, Cardenas jacked another one today, #6 on the year and something like his fourth in the last 10 or 11 games. Me likey.
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5 walks and 3 HR….OUCH. Donald also 2/4, dude is flat out raking it over the last 3 weeks or so.
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Hey James, Do you have any idea why Carrasco was pulled last night after facing only 3 hitters? No one seems to know on any of the messageboards, so I figured I might ask you here.
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No idea, and I won’t post hearsay or unfounded rumor. There was nothing in the game writeup on why he left, it could have been anything.
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Rough night for Carpenter last night… rough night for the Threshers last night.
Carp gave up 3 in the first, then looked like he was settling down in the second, but the third yeilded 2 more, and it all came unhinged in the 4th, with Carp giving up 4 and Charlie Weatherby allowing 4 more for an 8 run inning. Charlie gave up a few more in the 6th and 7th before Eude Brito came in to start the 8th and threw 2 innings of no hit ball.
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