The hottest Phillie in the minors right now, I felt it was time to give Jason Donald some face time. It’s tougher to write player profiles for guys just drafted last June, especially if they aren’t heralded prospects, which is the case for Donald. Nevertheless, his hot start won’t be ignored by this author, and we’ll try to figure out what to expect going forward. At this point, I’ll also take requests for the next batch of player profiles, but I don’t know when I’ll get to them, as I’m still busy tweaking and adjusting my projection/evaluation system. But, post away, let me know what you think of this profile, and let me know which players you’d like to see profiled in the near future.

The Phillies selected shortstop Jason Donald in the third round of the 2006 draft, #97 overall, out of the University of Arizona as a junior. Donald was drafted out of high school by the Los Angeles (then Anaheim) Angels in the 20th round of the 2003 draft and offered a sizable bonus, but he chose instead to go to Arizona, where he felt he could raise his profile and become an eventual first round pick. Donald did help Arizona reach the 2004 College World Series, but didn’t help raise his draft stock. A solid all around shortstop, Donald was known early on for his rocket arm, which rates anywhere from a 70-80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. The offensive side of his game wasn’t as polished, and that was the area he hoped to improve, which would lead to him climbing everyone’s draft board in 2006. Well, the offense never developed the way he hoped, he never became the eventual first round pick he hoped to be, but the Phillies popped him in the third round and signed him for $400,000. Donald’s other tools were considered average except his speed, which was already considered a tick below average. He was ticketed as a future utility player even upon being drafted, which normally never gives you much hope or reason for excitement.

Let’s take a look at Donald’s three years at Arizona, then his Batavia debut and try to sort out his numbers

FRSH, 2004: .322/.381/.475 — 21 XBH (25%) — 18 BB (6.1%) — 63 K (21.4%)
SOPH, 2005: .288/.398/.473 — 26 XBH (41%) –22 BB (8.3%) — 51 K (19.3%)
JUNR, 2006: .332/.401/.528 — 29 XBH (38%) — 19 BB (7.3%) — 48 K (18.3%)

All things considered, these are fairly consistent numbers. His extra base hit percentage jumped in his second and third seasons, which indicates a bit more power. His ISO rates were .153, .185, and .196, which again indicate an increase in power. He improved his walk rate from his freshman year to his sophomore year, but dipped a bit his junior season, though he was still above his freshman year rate. He also cut down his strikeouts in both his sophomore and junior seasons. When I look at those numbers, I see a guy who improved offensively, not major jaw dropping improvements, but more sustained growth, which is a positive.

Batavia, 2006: .263./.347/.362 — 17 XBH (30%) — 23 BB (9.5%) — 42 K (17.4%)

Some really interesting things in that line, things you wouldn’t necessarily gain by just looking at his three slash numbers. His extra base hit percentage dropped to 30%, but that’s an area that isn’t surprising at all, considering the adjustment from aluminum to wood, and considering the New York Penn League is one of the tougher hitting environments in baseball. He was generally facing very good college pitchers, or guys who already had a year in the rookie leagues and were making their first appearance in a short season league. Factor in the fatigue factor of playing a full college season, and the power drop isn’t surprising at all. However, the best part of that line is his walk rate actually improved in pro ball to a level he didn’t reach in college, and his K rate dropped to a career low for him. When you add those two factors together, it gives you a lot of reason to hope. Now, let’s take a look at his SMALL SAMPLE for 2007

Lakewood, 2007: .369/.429/.523 — 10 XBH (24%) — 10 BB (7.9%) — 19 K (15.1%)

Hmmm. His XBH% has continued to drop, his walk rate is a bit lower than his 2006 debut, but his K rate continues to drop. While you’d like to see the walk rate up around 9% and the XBH% up around 35%, the fact that his K rate continues to drop means he’s making consistent contact, and that’s evident in the .369 batting average. I suspect his average is going to come back down a bit, but it will be interesting to see what happens to his walk rate when that happens.

The book on Donald was that he was a grinder type player, average across the board in tools, but with decent skills, a howitzer for an arm, and a strong work ethic, but not much of a ceiling in terms of being an everyday major league player. Well, that might still be the case, but he has shown improvement in the key areas you look for in terms of projecting future success, and he is hitting the cover off the ball. He’s 22 now, and he honestly shouldn’t be in Lakewood all season. I’m sure the organization’s plan was to have him and Cardenas together all year, but at some point, Donald is likely to force the Phillies hand. There’s no rush to get him to Philadelphia, as our middle infield is spoken for at this point, but there is a desire to find out just how good he can be, and we won’t really find that out while he’s beating up on weaker competition.