Our good friend JE over at philliesdraft.com has started to do his homework on the upcoming 2007 draft, and he’s prepared his first rough mock draft, looking at who might be available for the Phillies in the first few rounds, as well as taking a look at the organization’s drafting philosophy in past drafts and how we can use that info to predict what will happen this June. This is the first in what I hope will be a number of contributions from Jeff, and next time, I’ll try and get him to write up the report here with his own unique login. For now, check out what he’s got, it’s a great read. I’ll catalog this posting in the “2007 Draft” tag group to the left, and all subsequent posts dealing with the draft will go there as well.

The “Five Week Out” Mock Draft:

With about five weeks left until the 2007 MLB Draft, I want to take a shot at a mock draft for the Phillies, but before I do so, there are several things that I need to take into consideration. They are, in no particular order of importance:

1. The strengths and weaknesses of this year’s draft
It’s been pretty well documented that the strength of this year’s draft is in its high school class, with each position offering solid prospects and depth. Pitching, especially left-handers, and third basemen seem to be particularly well stocked positions to me. College relievers also seem to be in abundance, though there doesn’t appear to be any one pitcher who can make that rare jump to the major league level by the end of the summer. The weakness of this year’s class, in general, is the college class, where there are few stud position players after Georgia Tech C Matt Wieters and right-handed starting pitchers are in uncharacteristically short supply.

2. The needs of the Phillies organization
The Phillies need a lot of help across the board and the fact that there are no true “can’t miss” prospects in the farm system, makes every position a priority. In terms of tools, the most glaring deficiency is the lack of legitimate power hitters, again. Corner outfield, first base, and shortstop, in particular, all currently lack a significant prospect and should probably be viewed as the main weaknesses of the farm system. Lucky for the Phillies that Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard still have many productive years ahead of them or we’d be in trouble at ss and 1b. Third base and catcher have some depth, but, other than C Jason Jaramillo, no one prospect at either position has established themselves as a legitimate prospect. Pitching must always be viewed as a priority in the draft, whether it’s a strengh or weakness or somewhere in between.

3. The Phillies drafting philosophy
Pat Gillick’s influence on the Phillies organization was very evident during last year’s draft when the Phillies not only sought “toolsy” athletic types, but they were also able to sign most of these kids away from college. I would expect the Phillies to continue targeting athletes that they feel they can mold into solid prospects. Mixed in with these athletes, no doubt to temper the high risk aspect of their selection, will be some safe college picks, players who may not project as high, but offer solid present skills and who should advance fairly easily though the system.

Round 1 (19th overall):
Several prospects are very attractive to me at this pick but, for some reason, I can’t get Michael Burgess out of my head. There’s a lot to like about Burgess – good speed, right field arm strength, tremendous bat speed and power (both present and projected), success with wood bats against high level competition – but he hasn’t hit particularly well this springs. What’s drawing me towards him is that he’s likely to fall to us and he’s the type of high risk/reward, toolsy, athletic prospect the Phillies targeted last year… My preference would be somebody like c/3b Mike Moustakas (despite being represented by Scott Boras) or lhp Josh Smoker or even of/rhp Michael Main and 3b Matt Dominguez, if they were to slip… I really like Moustakas’ powerful swing and the fact that he could project to a number of positions – c, 3b, 1b, lf, rf… I believe Josh Smoker is the best lefty in this class after David Price and Ross Detwiler (and ahead of Daniel Moskos and Madison Bumgarner, imho) and would probably be my preferred top pick… I thought the same way about Kyle Drabek last year that I feel about Michael Main this year. Because he’s a legitimate prospect as both a pitcher and outfielder, if drafted, I’d start Main out as a position player and see how he progresses at the plate. If it doesn’t work out, he’s still got that great arm and filthy stuff to fall back on… When it became apparent that Josh Vitters wouldn’t be available at 19, I turned my attention to Dominguez. He’s reputed to be a potential Gold Glove winner at third base and he does appear to have great hands for the position, but I have concerns about his swing… Smoker would be my pick, but Burgess’ power potential and overall tools are a great fit for this organization and, ultimately, CBP.
Pick: Michael Burgess, of, Hillsborough (FL) HS

Round 1, Supplemental (37th overall):
Last year, the Phillies took a pitcher and a position player with their two first round picks and I will assume that to be the case this year, as well. Having taken Burgess with my top pick, I’ve narrowed down this pick to high schoolers rhp Nevin Griffith, lhp Nathan Vineyard, and rhp Neil Ramirez with rhps Chris Withrow and Greg Peavey as dark horse picks. None of the college pitchers projected to this part of round one interest me… Ramirez is considered fairly advanced for a high school pitcher and I really like his delivery, it’s so effortless. He’s struggled a bit this spring and he tweaked his back a couple weeks ago, so he isn’t the slam dunk first round pick he appeared to be last fall… Griffith has really come on this spring and has actually dominated Burgess in several high profile match ups… Vineyard is a slight notch below Smoker and would be the rare young left-handed pitching prospect, our first since Cole Hamels… Withrow has the projectability that you look for and a heavy sinker that would be great in CBP. I haven’t seen him pitch and he hasn’t faced the best competition, from what I understand, but I’ve had a good feeling about him for while now… After watching him in the Aflac All American Game, Peavey is a personal favorite of mine. His athleticism and mannerisms remind me a lot of Drabek. There’s some effort in his delivery, but his stuff is really good… If I had taken Josh Smoker with the 19th overall pick, I’d be looking at college outfielders Todd Frazier, Kellen Kulbacki, Grant Desme and high schoolers 3b Kevin Ahrens, ss Justin Jackson and ss Peter Kozma… Frazier has power potential, bloodlines, and versatility… I saw Kulbacki hit a 420 foot home run to dead center field and throw out a runner trying to score from second, among other things, a couple of weeks ago. I was very impressed with him… Desme is having a great spring and has 5-tool potential with a lot of versatility… Ahrens is one of a large number of high school third basemen that are highly rated in this year’s draft. One thing I want out of this draft is one of these high school 3b – Moustakas, Dominguez, Ahrens, Victor Sanchez, Jon Gilmore, Will Middlebrooks… I was really high on Jackson leading up to and shortly after the Aflac Game, but cooled on him a bit over the winter months. After seeing his swing from a different angle, he’s moved back onto my list… Kozma is a solid all-around player who I’ve like for some time now. He also has, what sounds like, a very solid verbal to Wichita State. I’m not sure if he has the physical talent to warrant such a high pick… This is a tough pick, but I’m going with one of the dark horses, rhp Chris Withrow.
Pick: Chris Withrow, rhp, Midland Christian (TX) HS

Round 2 (84th overall):
After taking high schoolers with the first two picks, I should try to keep it realistic and balance things out a bit with a college player. I should also try to balance things out by taking either a right-handed bat or left-handed pitcher. After much consternation, I’ve narrowed it down one player who, according to the last prospect rankings I’ve seen, would have to fall to this pick (3b Victor Sanchez) and another player, who according to those same rankings, would be a bit of a reach (of Mike Bianucci)… As stated earlier, I want to take advantage of the depth at 3b in this year’s high school class and playing the odds (the Phillies historically have favored California kids with their early round picks and there are a ton of good high schoolers in CA this year), Sanchez would be pick among the third basemen. I’ve never see even a small clip of him playing, but I’ve been reading about him since last summer and he’s always had my interest… Two things that draw me to Bianucci – I saw him play in high school and there’s been this Internet rumor that the Phillies offered him 4th round money during the 2005 draft that I can’t seem to shake. Bianucci is extremely powerful, not surprising since his father owns a gym here in Northern Virginia. He isn’t a great athlete, but he’s more than adequate for left field, where I’ve seen him make a several tremendous plays in the couple of Auburn games that I’ve watched on TV this spring… If Kellen Kulbacki fell to this spot, I’d snatch him up in a second. The same goes for Vineyard, but I’m not counting on either to be available at this point… I’m gonna have to hope that Bianucci is there in round 3, because I’m going with the kid, Sanchez, with this pick.
Pick: Victor Sanchez, 3b, Gahr (CA) HS

Round 3 (108th overall):
Wellwhadayaknow, as luck would have it, Bianucci is available in round 3. I’m taking a bit of a gamble by putting his name out there this early in the draft. He’s a draft eligible sophomore with a lot of leverage and indications have been that he isn’t rated this high, but I just can’t get past that rumor from 2005. He’s extremely confident and carries himself in a very confident manner, which I like. The strength he has in his hands, wrists, and forearms deserves some additional mention – he handles a bat like it’s made out of balsa wood. He’s only batting around .300 this spring, but he’s a better hitter than that. While he’s provided protection for Josh Donaldson in the Auburn lineup, he hasn’t been afforded the same luxury. That may change during the last part of the year, however, as the Auburn coaching staff has finally moved 2005 super prospect Justin Bristow out of the starting rotation and back at 3b, where he belongs. I would expect Bianucci’s numbers to improve during the last couple of weeks of the season because of Bristow’s presence in the lineup.
Pick: Mike Bianucci, of, Auburn University

Round 3, Supplemental (114th overall):
A college pitcher is long overdue, but there’s a high school rhp who might be available that I like a great deal, Sam Runion. He pitched in last summer’s Aflac Game and gave every indication to me that he’d be an innings eating, workhorse-type starter. Big kid who’s still carrying around some baby fat (he’s no Tommy Hunter, that’s for sure), but he’s got big strong legs that he uses very effectively in his delivery. His leg drive takes a lot of the strain off his shoulder and because of this, I believe this kid will have a relatively injury-free career. He’s signed with North Carolina, so he may be a tough sign, but this is one of those kids that I really believe will turn into a very good, very dependable pitcher at the professional level.
Pick: Sam Runion, rhp, A.C. Reynolds (NC) HS

Round 4 (144th overall):
This kid has been my top sleeper pick for a couple of months now and the second sentence from this article gives me hope that I’ll hear Marti Wolever call his name on June 7th. This kid is a tremendous athlete, having earned All State honors in Florida in three sports – baseball, basketball, and football. This is so impressive it must be repeated – he’s earned All State honors in three sports… IN FLORIDA! He’s signed with the University of Florida on a baseball scholarship, but has made comments since signing his LOI about also trying out for the Gators football team as a wide receiver. He carries maybe 170 pounds on his 6-4 frame and with the Gators loaded at receiver, I’d be surprised if he went through with this attempt to play two sports. Besides, unlike Riley Cooper, it sounds like James’ first love is baseball, not football. I view James as a combination of D’Arby Myers (physical build, college option) and Dominic Brown (two-way talent, football option – wide receiver). James has probably made more news with his pitching, but it’s hit offensive potential that excites me and like I mention about Michael Main, I’d start James out as a centerfielder and hope his hitting develops. If it doesn’t, he has more than enough arm to be a very good pitching prospect. Anyway you look at it, he could prove to be a tough sign, but well worth the extra money, I believe, if the Phillies are willing to possibly go over slot to sign him.
Pick: Jiwan James, of/rhp, Williston (FL) HS

Round 5 (174th overall):
Over the years, this part of the draft – rounds 5-7 – has been a popular spot for the Phillies to take an unheralded college pitcher and I’m going to predict the Phillies do it again this year. Names like rhp Terry Doyle (Boston College), Scott Carroll (Missouri State), Duke Welker (Arkansas) come to mind, but the pitcher I’m going to pick is Enrique Garcia of Miami (Fla). Hopefully, he’ll still be around at this pick. I saw Garcia out-pitch NC State’s Andrew Brackman on TV earlier this spring and it was an absolutely masterful performance. He did a great job of hitting his spots and rarely left a pitch out over the plate. Though he doesn’t appear to have great velocity, he does have great movement on all his pitches, particularly his two and four seam fastballs. He was originally projected at the Hurricane’s closer and started off this spring in the bullpen, but was moved into the starting rotation a few weeks ago and has flourished in this new role.
Pick: Enrique Garcia, rhp, Miami (Fla)

Well, that was fun. Admittedly far too unrealistic and optimistic, but fun to do, nonetheless.

To recap…
1. Michael Burgess, of, Hillsborough HS
1a. Chris Withrow, rhp, Midland Christian HS
2. Victor Sanchez, 3b, Gahr HS
3. Mike Bianucci, of, Auburn University
3a. Sam Runion, rhp, A.C. Reynolds HS
4. Jiwan James, of, Williston HS
5. Enrique Garcia, rhp, Miami (Fla)