Thinking about prospects who will make it to the bigs in 2012

Here’s our new discussion topic. Which prospects will crack the big league roster this year, and how much time will they log? I figure we can also discuss guys who have a cup of coffee under their belt already and who figure to be more prominent players in 2012.

Domonic Brown, OF – Brown had a rollercoaster 2011, and his stock seems to have dipped, but the raw ability is still there. His defense is obviously the biggest obstacle standing between him and a big league job. If the Phillies do not sign a 1B this winter, the presumption may be that Mayberry will play 1B in Howard’s absence, which may open up LF for Brown. Of course, the entire offseason is ahead of us, so nothing is assured or known, and Amaro has spoken of getting Brown a full season in AAA in 2012, which could be a smokescreen.

Michael Schwimer, RHP – Schwim got a brief cup of coffee in 2011 and had mixed results. He showed potential, and when he threw strikes he was tough, but he does have to sharpen his control and hone his approach against lefties. With the Phillies figuring to go with a young bullpen (outside of whoever they sign to close), I figure he’ll have a shot at a bullpen job in spring training and should spend a good chunk of time in the majors.

Justin De Fratus, RHP – If Schwimer got a cup, I suppose De Fratus had a sip. Like Schwimer, mixed results. His velocity was only 91-92, but you could definitely see the swing and miss potential of his slider, and the velocity may have just been him tiring out at the end of a long season. Like Schwim, he should have the chance to grab a spot in spring training. Like Schwim, he figures to spend a good chunk of the season in the bigs.

Joe Savery, LHP – Savery had one of the more remarkable seasons of any Phillies minor leaguer, going from the brink of retirement to a brief September appearance. His arm strength appears to have bounced back, and going with the “young bullpen” theme, he might get a look as the 2nd lefty. The bullpen is in complete flux, so this is pending, and like the above relievers, he could spend a little time to the entire season in the majors.

Phillippe Aumont, RHP – Now that he’s firmly established as a reliever again. Aumont logged 22 innings at AAA and will be protected on the 40 man roster this winter. On raw stuff, he’s probably a notch ahead of everyone above (with the possible exception of De Fratus) and if his improved command and control carry over, he could be the closer of the future. I expect he’ll have a shot to win a bullpen role.

Austin Hyatt, RHP – The only starter that seems to be worth mentioning is Hyatt. After initial struggles at AA, he turned things around in the second half, noticeably decreasing his home run rate while maintaining his excellent strikeout numbers. With Kyle Kendrick due a big arbitration raise, and the Phillies (Dubee’s) apparent lack of faith in him, he may actually be non-tendered. Blanton’s arm could blow up again at any moment, which means Hyatt could be first in line. I expect he’ll get a few looks in spring training, and he should be #6 or #7 at worst on the SP depth chart.

Cody Overbeck, 1B/3B/LF – Overbeck has almost 250 PA in AAA. After a slow start he brought his average up to .279 and ended with 18 extra base hits. He swings and misses a lot, meaning he’s not likely to hit for average, and the Phillies still have to protect him on the 40 man roster. But could he possibly fill a bench role? Its highly unlikely the Phillies would count on him from Day 1, but if there are more injury needs, he may get a look, and if he gets off to a good start, he could be the first call-up, depending on how things shake out. I think he could sneak in 100+ PA in 2012, depending how the chips fall.

Freddy Galvis, SS – The hot button item is the Phillies SS position. Should the Phillies sign Jose Reyes (yes), should they bring back Rollins (no) or should they save a boatload of money and go with the untested rookie? Galvis has a major league glove that could save 30+ runs over the course of a full season, but his bat is likely to offset almost all of that positive fielding value. The Phillies may look to make a big splash (Reyes) or sign a stopgap (like Furcal) to bring the gap to Galvis. Or they could bring back Rollins on a medium length deal. If the Phillies go external, short of an injury, Galvis will likely spend the entire year in AAA. If the Phillies bring back Rollins or go with an external option than Galvis becomes really good insurance or a big trade chip, possibly for a third baseman.

Carlos Rivero, 3B – Rivero’s glove is well behind his bat, and he struggled in his brief AAA stint in 2011, but he did show plenty of potential at AA. I expect he’ll start at Lehigh Valley next year, and if the need for a utility guy is there, he might get a look, especially if Polanco continues to deal with injuries. The Phillies have a few quality 3B prospects now, but they are well down the ladder. Rivero is a long shot for significant big league time in 2012, but I’ve seen stranger things.

Who did I miss? I didn’t include Tyson Gillies, as he needs to stay healthy first. Tyler Cloyd (if protected) could get a mention, and he’d have the advantage over Hyatt because he’d be on the 40 man roster. Jacob Diekman could make it as a LOOGY, but he needs to show a bit more control before he’s considered anything more than Juan Perez.

On another note, the Phillies bullpen competition in spring training should be fascinating to watch.

118 thoughts on “Thinking about prospects who will make it to the bigs in 2012

  1. I just took viagra bro I ve been rock solid for 5 hours. Im about to hit the doctors up to get my wood down when I get back ill talk about the best ballpark food

  2. I think you pretty much got them all, seeing as how, outside the guys mentioned, there’s pretty much nothing in AAA/AA.

  3. I wouldn’t be surprised if Julio Rodriguez was on the SP depth chart. His stuff probably doesn’t have a lot of development left and the Phillies currently lack many options in the rotation.

    1. I had just typed out a long post about how you are a complete moron for thinking this highly of JC Ramirez. Good thing I re-read your post before posting haha. I 100% agree, this kid seems to really fool hitters and I’m ok with being high on him until he gives us a reason not to be

  4. Dom Brown will be in Philly again in 2012. Hopefully the light switch goes on and we get the prospect who we have been hoping for. After that I see DeFratus spending the most time in the majors. I think he nudges out Schwimer. Something about Schwimers stuff. Not sold on. Next after that is Savery. If we get the Savery who was pitching at the end of 2011 he has a good chance to spend most of the season w/the Phils. Aumont is a September call-up/injury replacement and then a long time fixture in the pen afterwards. I think Hyatt will get a few starts in 2012 somehow. Overbeck maybe a September call-up/maybe bench player w/Howard out. Galvis is a September call-up. Not sure about Rivero. I almost think we need to replace Polanco next year. Does Valle get a September call-up or do they sign a veteran C for AAA or call up Tuffy in September.

  5. The thing people forget about JC Ramirez is that scouts have long predicted him to be a reliever in the Rafael Soriano mold. So basically, he’s getting hammered because he’s being miscast as a starter by the Phillies (he has no third pitch). Until he gets the same opportunity as Aumont, who everybody loves now (rightfully so) but hated a year ago, I’m not writing him off.

    1. I agree. He should be the set up guy for Lehigh Valley. Move him to the bullpen and forge the pitch to contact approach.

  6. I like Galvis as a prospect but suspect he’s at least a year away from being a serviceable MLB hitter. A 21 yr old SS slashing .278/.324/.392 with good defense in the high minors is probably going to be a nice ML player. Just not at age 22.

  7. Harold Garcia. He has a leg up being on the 40 man roster. If an injury or two strikes, I could easily see him getting a cup of coffee in the bigs.

  8. Think that Schwimer has the best shot of sticking with the big club first and also the longest. After that, I Galvis (even though not ready) may only be a pulled calf/sports hernia away from becoming bench depth.

    1. JC Ramirez, Rizzotti, H. Garcia, Julio Rodriguez and Trevor May are all dark horse candidates. Diekman looks like he might be turning the corner – if so, he and Savery could compete for playing time.

      To me, the real question is this: which of our young pitchers are going to be traded? It’s going to happen – I just wonder who will go and what we will get in return.

      1. I don’t think they trade Trevor May or Jesse Biddle. There’s nobody out there to really trade for and there isn’t a huge need out side of third base.

        Maybe a Joakim Soria if the Phillies strike out on the free agent market.

  9. Things could get tricky. Suppose Savery hits his butt off in ST and/or not pitches well. To me Savery while not the key to the bullpen could set a tone pinch hitter as well.

    Harold Garcia Hmmm How ready is he to play? Has be been working out and/or lifting like a fiend?
    Is he playing anywhere?

    1. Savery is not going to make the Phillies or any other roster based on being a mediocre pitcher with the ability to pinch hit. I know people like to speculate about all of the unique situations it could create but is ain’t gonna happen.

      If Savery makes the club at any point its going to be because he can get hitters out.

      1. I agree completely, his abilities as a pinch hitter will have nothing to do with whether he makes the roster (I wonder if he will even take batting practice in spring training, since they’ll want him to work out with the pitchers?), but I do think the fact that he can hit a little might make for some interesting strategic decisions in-season if he makes the team. You could see it coming into play in an extra inning game–if it’s the 10th inning, the pitcher’s spot is up in the next frame, choices in the bullpen down to him and Herndon, does Charlie consider going with Savery knowing that he might be capable of providing a professional at bat, allowing him to conserve someone else on the bench? Could be kind of an interesting little subplot.

        1. Not only can he PH.
          He could play 1B or OF in a REAL PINCH.
          (Think Injury Sub in an Extra Inning Game and a Depleted Bench)

  10. Of all the names I kind of like Diekman and DeFratus. Diekman to fill the Loogy role and DeFratus to fill the Lidge role. There is a wealth of FA closers I’m sure we wind up with one of them if not Madson. I prefer to bring Madson back as he is very effective against LH bats but we’ll see.

    One thing is for sure it will be a hot, hot stove for us…If I counted correctly we have no less than 8 of our 25 Man who are FA’s.

    1. I count 6: Baez, Ibanez, Madson, Rollins, Schneider, Gload. If you’re counting the guys who’s options they bought out, then Lidge and Oswalt makes it 8. That may be misleading though as we won’t sign FAs to replace Baez, Lidge and possibly Gload.

  11. The word was “suppose”. Nothing with Savery out of the question because there is little frame of reference. He may add speed to his fastball over the winter rest. Then again he may add overall strength. And wish we could bet because I believe he will make the roster by June 1 at the latest.

  12. 2B-361, 3B-96, SS-87, LF-44 .314 .374 .418
    I want Cardenas back rather than some useless FA. Ruben make the trade. I have seen all the MM I care to.

    1. Cardenas would be nice to have coming off the bench. He is not even in Oakland’s top ten prospects. Maybe we can get him cheap.

    2. I don’t mind Cardenas, but I think MM is going to surprise a lot of people and become a halfway decent player. Not a starter, mind you, but a nice little useful, flexible piece on a great team. There’s no reason to cast him aside as he costs the team relatively little.

      1. First half I might of agreed with you but the second half Bruntlett imitation was proof this was a bad idea. It is not like he is a youngster. And besides his help in the outfield will probably not needed

  13. I forgot about Diekman. A left handed specialist is always good to have. Hell it hurts us all the time with our bats. I saw him pitch for Reading last yr and he was throwing some nasty stuff to lefties and he seems to be holding his own in AFL.

    1. I agree that Diekman has a good chance of seeing the big league roster in 2012. Just don’t think it will be until he shows some consistent command in AAA for a few months.

  14. I think Rube should get a stop gap at SS (Furcal) who can fill our leadoff role well and play good defense. Then Galvis in 2013 along with Valle playing catcher. May and Biddle should be untouchable and at least 1 if not 2 of the “baby aces” should be ready to take a rotation spot in 2013 as well. (I’m salavating at the thought of them learning from Doc/Lee/Cole) I think Savery and Diekman battle for the Loogy and we should go young and cheap in the bullpen. Let Aumont, DeFratus, and Schwimmer earn those spots and try to re-sign Madson. If not I could see Ruben taking a flier on Joe Nathan. Nathan seemed to be gaining his arm strength up in the 2nd half of the season. Use that extra money to lock up Cole, upgrade the bench, and sign Cuddyer to play 1st until Howard comes back, then 3rd after that. (Polly as a super utilty guy.) Maybe even trade Dom(while he has value) and other prospects for a 3rd bagger.

    1. Not sure why people think that a guy like Furcal would be a “stop-gap” signing at SS. He’s also going to command significant $$$ from someone.He’s coming off of a bigger per year contract (3-$30M) that what Rollin’s had.

      Those people advocating for a stop-gap SS until Galvis is ready need to set their sights more on someone like Gonzalez from the Braves or Jack Wilson. That’s the type of player who’s going to sign a 1-year deal for little money. Not an appealing option to take while also hoping the Galvis repeats his 2011 season and is ready by 2013…

      1. Furcal is a stop gap because he’s 34 and here are his stats for this season. He only played 87 games hit 8 hrs, batted in 29 runs, while he bated .231 with an OBP of .298. How is he going to command top dollar just because he’s coming off a “bigger per year contract (3-$30M) than what Rollin’s had.”? He’s not going to command anything close to Rollins and Reyes for $ or years.

        1. So why do we want a player who is coming off of a .298 OBP season, even for only “stopgap” purposes? Is Galvis really worth the suffering?

          1. That’s the question with a stop gap. We won’t know what we have in Galvis until he’s probably had a full year at AAA but his numbers project out to be a nice player. There are pros and cons to big names and stop gaps. It was just my opinion that Reyes and Rollins demanding big money and long contracts would handcuff the team more than taking a flier on a Furcal/Gonzalez type and maybe they produce. I don’t want a team full of washed up players making large amounts of money, I want a Braves-type run in this division and in order to do that we need to get younger at some point. I’m more of a Gillick type guy though where you plug holes and not so much the big splash.

        2. Furcal only played in 87 games due to a significant injury at the start of the season. He is still a ML starting SS who’s going to get more than a 1-year deal. Wouldn’t be surprised if returns to Atlanta on a 2-year deal.

          But as others have pointed out, you seem to be arguing on one hand that Furcal sucks so he could be had easily on a 1-year deal while at the same time, saying he would be a good stop-gap for the Phillies because he can bat lead-off and play good defense?

          A SS who can hold down the leadoff spot and play good defense command significant money. Yes, Reyes and Rollins will get more but Furcal will get paid as well.

    2. Nathan is fairly old and coming off injury….would he be willing to take a 1 year with option year deal?

      1. That’s the question we’ll have to find out. But he’ll definately generate some interest around the league. I could see teams (including us) offering up to 2 years with vesting/team options.

      2. I love the idea of signing Nathan to bride the gap for one of Aumont, Bastardo, or DeFratus… but his flyball/home run rate really scares me.

  15. De Fratus was throwing 95 in the last game of the regular season in which he got the W…Slider looked nasty as well. Strikeout stuff is def there, hope he has an awesome spring training. He is more dominant than Schwim. Should be a nice addition to the pen.

  16. Schwim might be better served in LV again for the early part of the year, working on something to beat a left-handed bat. Otherwise, he’ll own the mop-up role and nothing else until he proves Somethjng in his arsenal can beat a lefty.

  17. I believe they will be able to trade some players, and they may have to create some room and some salary to make any kind of roster projection worth much.
    As the roster currently stands you got either Kendrick or Blanton as the 5th starter, so one will be in bullpen. Then you got Contreras. Ruben Amaro Junior talks of bringing back Oswalt. If that is true and they get the salary they want Oswalt starts , and you got Kendrick, Blanton, and Contreras in the bullpen,
    You offer arbitration to Madson and if he doesn’t accept or work something out , you leave room for a veteran closer type. You would think Bastardo and Stutes return, and you add Blanton, Kendrick , and Contreras. If the talk of returning Lidge at a reduced fee works out,
    Then that’s a 7 man bullpen, or 12 pitchers overall, or a full boat, or no room at the Inn.
    So, Where , exactly, do all those young pitchers fit in ?
    Good idea to re-arrange the deck chairs, before figuring the pitching situation.

    1. marfis, first of all the decisions regarding those player aren’t independent decisions. Just to name one example, if Oswalt is back, Kendrick is more of a non-tender or trade candidate and Lidge a less likely signing target. They are also far from certain (e.g., I do not think that Oswalt will be back). Also, I know I criticized your “trade Blanton” post, and I stand by that – he is currently untradeable – but if he is healthy, a big if, then he does become a trade candidate during the year (albeit not one where we can expect to get much salary relief or a decent prospect in return). And so on.

      Of course on top of that, you have inevitable injuries as the season progresses. Last season we started with a full pen, and look how many rookies of near rookies got chances.

      I fully expect that at least 3 of the guys mentioned above (just talking about the relief pitchers) will get meaningful innings before rosters expand next year, mostly likely more.

    2. Who in their right mind would have a $10,000,000 middle reliever (Blanton)? I assume Kendrick might get something like $5,000,000 in Arb. If you resign Lidge for $2,000,000, sign one of the Closers on the market for, conservatively, $10,000,000, you would now have a $30,000,000 bullpen.

      Instead, say farewell to KK, make Blanton the #5 (which he’ll do fine as, if healthy). Adios Lidge. Roughly $2,500,000 for Stutes, Bastardo, DeFratus and some combination of Savery, Schwimer, Aumont or another rookie. plus $2,500,000 for Contreras, plus a closer at $10,000,000. I just built a good bullpen at half the price ($15,000,000).

      1. Well to be fair to marfis, he isn’t in advocacy mode this time, but in prediction mode. He sucks at both, but in this case you’re dinging him for the wrong one.

        Actually, though, I’m not sure predication mode is even accurate. He’s mainly being cantankerous, as I don’t think even he thinks that that’s what the bullpen will look like.

      2. And What makes you think he will be healthy?
        He chose not to have surgery to move the tendon.
        Next year it will likely get aggrevated again and he could be gone for the year.
        You owe him regardless.

        You would not SIGN a guy to BE your Middle Reliever, but if his sole role is to be the Long Man when a starter faulters, he will likely need to warm up very little and see far less innings than as a starter.

        Furthermore, you cannot COUNT on his arm as the #5. So you still need to have a #5 around. It is far easier to fill a Long-Man than a #5 role. And when #5 goes down he could spot start.

        The Blanton money simply needs to be considered DEAD money.
        If you get some value from him in 2012, feel lucky.
        However, Constructing your team with the assumption that someone with a bad elbow who chose not to have surgery to correct the issue will be healthy is just just not useful.

        1. Though with Blanton’s contract next year….his last…it is insured …and it kicks in when/if he should be DL for 90 days or more during the season..

  18. Phillies catcher Tuffy Gosewisch finished with a .227 batting average for Team USA in 13 games over the course of the Pan-Am Games and the IBAF World Cup. Gosewisch had a homer and nine RBIs.

  19. Harold Garcia is an interesting name. At the start of last season it was thought he could push for an injury call up or bench spot late in the season. Wonder how his recovery is coming along? I thought I saw his name on one of the Latin American fall league rosters.

  20. I don’t think Garcia has played yet. Maybe he will make it at a later date to keep the public off his back.

    1. Harold is on the Aguilas De Zulia roster with Galvis. I read that he is preparing to make his debut down there. I keep my eye on the boxscores everyday to see if he has started playing. nothing yet.

  21. All of those at the op are possible but a few others. Dark Horses

    JC Ramirez- if injures occur and he able to be effective maybe a spot start or more. Also,
    September bullpen arm possible
    Rizzotti- If he not ruled 5 or traded he can make a ST run at 1B or a PH spot.
    Goosewich- May see him due to injuries or maybe 3rd Cather in september,
    RICH THOMPSON PEOPLE!

  22. I can see Ramierez as an injury replacement. He looks stronger now than Kendrick did going into the season in which he was initially called up. I thought Ramierez was hurting this season, so if he’s healthy next year, we could see a lot more out of him. He and Hyatt should be at LV, but with a strong Reading rotation biting at their heels. Kendrick was callled up from AA, with only about half a season of AA experience, so a good start by May or Rodriguez could vault them ahead of the AAA pitchers on the call-up order.

  23. I think Galvis is definitely going to get some time in the MLB, especially if he continues playing well in Spring Training. The Phillies might go after Reyes, but I wouldn’t be too sure since Reyes is disliked in Philly and I’m not sure if he likes Philly too much either, although we all know that money talks. I’d just be worried about Reyes’ health problems if the Phillies went out and signed him and if he would turn out to be the next Carl Crawford.

      1. Their careers are pretty similar.

        Crawford: 1365 games, .293/.333/.441, 105 OPS+
        Reyes: 1050 games, .292/.341/.441, 106 OPS+

        Just as recently as 2010 Crawford was performing better than Reyes.

          1. I agree. I am only responding to your point that Reyes is the player Crawford should be. Unless you mean Crawford should be a SS, I can only assume you meant offensively and thus made that comparison.

  24. I see 5 spots to be open for the yound relivers next year: Bastardo as the only definite with Stutes, Schwimmer, DeFratus, Aumont, Savery, Herndon, and whoever doesn’t start between Blanton/Kendrick. So any 3 of those guys could make the team and when/if others will get a shot. That counts Contreras and a Closer as the other 2 spots. I forsee Kendrick being offered arbitration even if he ends up in pen or 5th starter. He would be valuable. If none of the young relievers can crack the roster next year then Rube will be making midseason trades.

  25. The Phils hopes at SS likely are in the 2011 draft and 3-4 years away. Hmmmm Rollins 3 yr contract??? I could see that. Galvis a backup is more likely

  26. Aparently there’s chatter of the Phillies internally discussing the possibility of going after David Wright…

    I’d drive Domonic Brown up there personally (and I’m like the biggest Domonic Brown guy here). So to the guy who originally asked who’s going to get traded, I guess nobody’s safe now who wasn’t drafted this year.

    1. I’m the biggest D Brown fan. But anyway although David wright would significantly increase production at third base, he has a heavy contract and if we traded for him we would most likely not sign Madson or Rollins.

      1. I’d take David Wright over Rollins at this point. Last year was Rollins’ first good year since 2007… gotta think that’s more of an aberration at this point.

        … fine I’ll take 2nd biggest fan. I got ripped here a couple months ago for comparing him to Chase Utley.

        1. Define “good.” I think Rollins has spoiled us. Rollins – the whole package, including defense – has been above average as a shortstop every year since 2002 – which was the only year of his career that he was (slightly) below average as a SS. And in 2008 he was very good, it just didn’t seem so given the decline from the MVP year, coupled with a league wide hitting decline. 2009 and 2010 were down years, but he was still as I said a little above average for a SS even then.

          I don’t think he should be signed for 4 or 5 years, so I’m not sure “not being able to sign Rollins” is an argument against the trade, but I’ll tell you what, if we can get him to sign for 3, but wouldn’t have enough money after trading for Wright, that’s absolutely another reason not to go after Wright.

          1. Since 2007, Jimmy hasn’t been able to stay on the field and hasn’t been able to hit much over .260… for a shortstop, that’s good offensive production, but Wright is definitely an offensive upgrade.

            The Phillies can and have won without him, Jimmy isn’t a necessity to the team. I’d rather have .300/25+ home runs/100+ RBIs in the middle of my line up than whatever Jimmy Rollins can give at this point of his career. Wright probably imediately becomes the best player on the Phillies and is the third baseman for years to come.

            It’s not going to happen but it’s a move I’d make and welcome wholeheartedly.

            a 2-5 of Utley/Wright/Howard/Pence is probably the best in baseball.

            1. Player A for the past 3 years has WARs of 3.6, 4.0, 1.9 = 9.5

              Player B has WARs of 3.0, 2.5, 3.8 = 9.3

              Player C has WARs of 3.3, 3.9, 2.8 = 10.0

              Without looking can you guess who is Polanco ,Rollins and Wright?

        2. And if we trade for wright what prospects will we have left?? We need to let the farm recover so we can turn this team over in a few years with the prospects we do have.

          1. I don’t think we even have the prospects that would sniff a trade for David Wright so it doesn’t really matter, just an interesting idea.

        3. What are David Wright’s offensive stats since the beaning? I don’t think they’re anywhere near as good as people think.

    2. I’ve mentioned Wright positively before,, but … he’s a one year rental, his salary is high, which presents an opportunity cost, we’ll have to give up something significant – I mean Brown, yikes! for a one year rental, and he is a shadow of his former self. Yes, het would be a meaningful upgrade as a hitter, but you would lose much of that value on the defensive end. I mean, if the Mets want to pay half his salary and only want a grade B prospect, then sure. Otherwise, pass.

      1. He’s a shadow of his former self because of the ball park and the team he plays on. He’s a one year rental because he can opt out of his contract… I would imagine the Phillies would resign him at some point.

        Why would the Mets trade David Wright for a B prospect…?

        I think the fact that he’s a Met skews everyones opinions of him as a player… same with Jose Reyes.

        1. So you’re not worried about Wright’s steady decline I guess. Also the ballpark doesn’t hinder him all that much. Over 2008-2010 his home away OPS splits are virtually identical. And the reason no one likes Jose Reyes is because of his attitude and he’s no less fragile than anyone else we have on the team. Wright would be the one Met I would want but at what cost? We’re talking about good prospects and taking on a good bit of money.

          1. After I heard this on my home last night was very curious to see the comments this morning. I honestly don’t think it happens. I just don’t think the team can sustain that kind of payroll unless the Mets were willing to take back some of our salary players.

            Suppose you gave up Brown and Blanton in that deal what to do with Polanco and his $6 Mil? Would they do it for Brown/Polanco? From our side I would do it if I couldn’t bring Jimmy back.

            Wright is due $15 Mil next year and has a $16 Mil option for 13 or a $1 mil buyout.

            1. Polanco would be a super utility player… can’t get rid of him especially with all the question marks surrounding Utley.

              The problem with Polanco he’s not an every day player anymore… at least Charlie’s definition of one.

      2. Wright at the ‘BanK’ vs Citi Field….can you just imagine his HR/RBI production…that would be something to see.

        1. The interesting thing here is that what evidence we do have suggests that this is nonsense. His performance in Philadelphia is not impressive compared to his career numbers – somewhere between 5 and 10 percent WORSE than his overall career numbers. OTOH, his performance in Citi Field is not particularly bad. Yes, somewhat worse than his career numbers, but that’s because the Met’s shifted ballparks at the same time that Wright’s career went south. And for those people thinking that his career decline might be related to the park, I’d suggest taking a look at his road performance over the past 3 years.

          I’m sure his HR totals would go up a little. Would he be a more valuable hitter, overall, in Philly than in NY? No. Not unless Amaro is an inventor in his spare time and has invented a time machine that can bring back the pre-beaning version of Wright.

    3. The David Wright of 2007-2008 was not a good player; he was a great player, the equal of Chase Utley offensively and four years younger. Wright is still a good ballplayer, but don’t you remember what happened to him in 2009? He was beaned, and, ever since, he’s become gun shy at the plate, his strikeouts are way up, and he can now be pitched to. Moreover, his defense is shaky. If you plugged him in at 3B in place of Polanco, the Phils’ defense would suffer considerably.

      I’d take Wright in the right deal for the Phils, but the Mets probably would balk at such a deal.

      David Wright is still a big name, but his performance the last three years does not match the name. The Phils shouldn’t be dazzled by David Wright’s glamor, and, instead, should look elsewhere for an offensive upgrade.

  27. Wright would take a package. Mets would want Brown, Valle, or May to head the package, maybe Biddle. I would not do any of those. Some package of J-Rod, DeFratus (as much as I like him), Schwimer (my man, itching to see him have a career with Phils, but keeping it real), and a hitter or two (Garcia, Rivero, Castro, James, Hernandez, or Rupp to start with, someone like Susdorf or Overbeck could be a throw-in fourth guy?).

    That’s what I’d give up. All depends on how much Mets need salary relief and what other offers they get.

    But, alas, they will likely want a big three. Maybe Colvin would interest them, but his value is down and he has more value with Phils as someone who can rebound and compete with May and Biddle for next stud starter.

    I think Phils do not want to send the best guys and Mets would not want a lesser package, so chances of this getting done are maybe 5% or less?

    1. I’m sorry, but if a player like Sebastian Valle gets a David Wright in return, I gift wrap him. And I don’t see a lesser player getting it done. Except for Domonic Brown (who’s technically no longer a prospect), there’s no slam dunk untradeable prospect in our system. And as far as Valle in particular, I don’t trust a player with that kind of walk rate enough to keep me from acquiring an All Star.

      1. Brown isn’t technically a prospect anymore, and I don’t think he’s “slam dunk untradeable,” either. Based on RAJ’s comments and Charlie’s September usage, I’m pretty convinced he’ll be somebody else’s starting right fielder next season.

      2. I think you should do more homework on Valle. He’s a special kind of player maybe not in his offense or defense but he has the type of make up and intangibles to make the players around him better. Besides you don’t walk your way to the big leagues you hit you’re way there. In 5 Seasons of minor league ball his numbers are what you would expect from a young catcher .272 avg. .325 OBT .418 SLG

        Not bad for a kid who just completed his age 21 season

        1. Believe me I know what Valle brings to the table. I boosted him here LONG before most everyone else did. But his plate discipline is a reality. You may not walk your way to the majors (and I don’t think that’s true) but you certainly don’t get there swinging at bad pitches either. He’ll probably overcome those issues going forward, but there’s a real possibility his outcome is Miguel Olivo.

      3. I will disagree. On a straight up, value for value, blinders-on perspective, maybe. But Phils have traded away a slew of guys who had at least a chance to be stud players and they need to replace pitching, catching, heck, just about every part of the field with fresh blood for both money and energy reasons (I’m big on having a mix of hungry young guys and seasoned older guys). Valle is the only guy in the upper part of the system who looks talent-wise like he could play in an AS game (granted, that’s if he develops his plus-plus tools). He has shown ability to hit for average, hit for power, throw, catch, call a game–all at different times, but all reports are he’s developing, and he has a chance to put all of those skills together one day. I agree he has a good chance to develop better discipline when better pitching makes it mandatory. But the raw tools are AS level and the development arrow is moving up at a highly promising rate.

        David Wright is not the player he once was, and his hitting has not been as intimidating as in the past. I have always liked him, but there’s a chance he could be the next mediocre-performing, nicked-up old guy. I don’t want more of them. I want fewer. I want more youth.

        Love to see him at a lower price, but with respect for your view, I’m for holding onto our potential stud guys today, unless we get someone younger, healthier, talented, lower-risk.

  28. I don’t think we really have the prospects to pull off another block buster trade, it’s just something that’s fun to talk about. I love the offseason with all the speculation and what not…

    I think David Wright is destined to be a Rockie or an Angel.

  29. I wouldn’t trade for Wright. He’s past his prime and the price would be prohibitive.
    I would play Galvis at short even if he doesn’t hit. Paying for past performance from the likes of a Furcal is not a better bet and the money can be better spent elsewhere.
    I expect DeFratus to fulfill the Stutes role next year and add to the quality depth in the bullpen.
    Aumont and Schwim will be on the LV/Philly shuttle most of the year.
    Dom Brown MUST live up to the hype because the Phils need his speed and production in the batting order especially if Rollins is replaced by Galvis.
    Let the youth infusion begin!

    1. With a sudden youth infusion…..Roy Hallady and Cliff Lee may have distant memories of Toronto and Cleveland resurrected to their disappointment.

        1. Well I don’t know. Assuming a little above average defense – say 4 runs – and average base running, in order to be a zero WAR player a SS would need to be roughly 30 runs below average as a hitter (assuming full season play). That’s tough to do; the worst mark in baseball last year was minus 25 runs. Y. Betancourt was a plus 0.5 WAR player last year despite being horrible pretty much across the board. Just saying. If my other assumptions are correct, even if Galvis produces 20 runs less than the average major leaguer as a hitter – and that’s worse than Betancourt, essentially Casey McGehee, .223/.280/.346 – he’s a one WAR player. I think he can equal or better that (higher BA and OBP, lower SLG).

          Which doesn’t mean he should get the job. A couple points here: (1) if the Phillies are going so suffer with a SS who gives them in the neighborhood of 1 WAR (Galvis or a stopgap), I’m inclined to be happier to sacrifice a little defense rather than offense, given team needs; (2) all else being equal, Galvis’ long term development will likely benefit from another year in AAA.

          1. And some people might say that this proves that WAR isn’t useful. On the contrary, while WAR has its imperfections, this shows accurately that you’re in trouble if you have to rely on a replacement level SS as a regular. See, e.g., Valdez, Wilson – the very definition of a replacement level SS. And thus fine for a bench role – just not someone you want to see getting 300 PA.

          2. Makes sense. I think, if called up next spring, Galvis’ line would be exactly McGehee minus the power. But, that’s a pretty minor difference of opinion.

  30. If you look at Hyatt’s stats since he’s been in the Minors 27-11 and 441 K’s in 359 IP there is no reason this kid shouldn’t get a look at the Big Leagues in 2012

    1. It’s a pretty thoughtful list. I love that he thinks so highly of Austin Wright – a guy who I think will soar up the prospect lists next year (in fact, I think there’s an outside chance he pitches for the big league team next season). You can quibble with a bunch of the rankings but, all told, they are reasonable.

  31. Ok we have a 23 year old leftfield prospect in Brown who has 280 MLB plate appearances and Reuben thinks he needs a full year in AAA. Assuming they don’t sign Rollins what makes you think the GM would think a 21 year old in Galvis would be ready to play for a contender. If Rollins doesn’t resign I see them getting a SS on a 2 year contract and groom Galvis to start in 2014 or mid season 2013 at the earliest.

    1. I think Galvis in the majors for more than a September call up next year would be a terrible idea and setting him up for failure. Brown was also set up for failure a bit too. Neither of them have ever had a full year in AAA. I don’t think age really has to do with it though it’s more of performance. Brown hasn’t shown much at the major league level yet and also hasn’t had a full AAA season so it makes sense to at least maybe start him in AAA although the Howard injury may mean he gets to be on the big league team to start the season. Galvis on the other hand should not even sniff a shot of making the major league roster at the start of the season. Nothing makes me think he’d be ready for major league pitching yet and as a result doesn’t deserve a starting job. Because of this he should be chilling in AAA getting ABs so his growth isn’t stunted (like Brown’s was) with him sitting on the bench.

  32. Mathieson
    Would like to see him get a fair chance. Threw 5 innings last year, never allowed to get into sync
    Sat for 14 days in the pen to rust. Let him loose or trade him.

  33. Drew Naylor is a forgotten man who could get a sip of coffee out of the bullpen for the Phillies next season. The only other dark horse candidate I find that nobody has mentioned as a potential Sept call-up is Brody Colvin, who could pass Hyatt, Cloyd, and Ramirez, on the Phillies starting pitching depth chart by then.

    1. Add BJ Rosenberg to the list above those two. He even has a shot to make the team in spring training or soon after, as Stutes did last season.

    2. Naylor had Tommy John surgery at the beginning of June, so he is probably out of the picture for a cup of coffee next year.

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