So this will be the kickstart to my look at position player prospects across baseball based on the SONAR score statistic that I’ve come up with. If you’re unfamiliar with it, I’d suggest starting HERE. As I’ve mentioned a number of times, the score is not meant to replace scouting reports or looking at a player’s physical tools. The score is meant to give another perspective, to evaluate what the player has done statistically, and how his numbers stack up based on his age, what league he played in, and his home park. As with every evaluation system, there will be guys who score very high and very low that won’t end up going in that direction as a prospect. This could be for any number of reasons, whether it could be injury related, switching to a new position, or anything else that impacts season to season changes. As I’ve stressed a number of times, prospect status is very fluid and subject to change quite quickly. After next season, I’m going to release a second version of SONAR, maybe called SONAR2, which will be a weighted score that takes two years of data into account, instead of just 1 this year. But I don’t have the time to go back and retroactively score all of 2008, so I’m just using the 2009 data for year 1, and then next year there will be regular SONAR scores, as well as SONAR2 scores. And again, even though I’ve stressed it a number of times, this is not meant to replace anything, its simply another data point, and something we’ll have to wait and see on to determine its effectiveness or use.

Check below and we’ll get started.

Before getting into the scores, just a very brief outline.

* The SONAR score is a hybrid of both counting and rate stats
* It takes into consideration age, league, home park, and number of PA’s/IP, the latter of which helps to remove some of the noise from small sample sizes
* The higher the score, the better the prospect
* This is a one year score, it represents only what happened in 2009.
* There is no input bias, the numbers are the product of a detailed formula

Now, onto First Base. For me, this is one of the toughest positions to judge a prospect. First base is the last stop on the defensive spectrum, at least for players in the National League, and because of that fact, the offensive standards at the position are the highest. The common notion is that you can “hide anyone at 1B”, even if that’s somewhat untrue, but generally this is the graveyard for lumbering sluggers who don’t have the foot speed for the outfield, or catchers who’ve finally fallen apart physically after years of abuse behind the plate. That’s not to say defense doesn’t matter, as the best defensive 1B can save their team plenty of runs in a season, but you generally have to hit to play 1B. When applying this to prospects, 1B is generally not a place you want to start out, because you’ve got nowhere else to go. Because of this, the demand of a prospect at 1B offensively is higher than at any other position.

So here’s how we’ll do this. I’m going to give the chart for the top 20 prospects at the position, then go over them individually. On the chart, you’ll notice there are cells shaded green, and in some cases red. These are little “indicator lights” if you will, which give a quick snapshot as to whether the peripheral stat was above or below average. Above and below average isn’t really scientific. For BB%, anything above 10% is green, anything under 5% is red. For K%, anything over 25% is red, anything under 13% is green. For XBH%, anything over 40% is green, under 20% is red. For ISO, anything over .200 is green, anything under .100 is red, and for SecA, anything over .350 is green, anything under .250 is red. These lights are more for confirmation or to alert you to possible red flags. After the 15, I’ll also make notes on notable guys who aren’t on the list, guys who get lots of hype and talk from other outlets, and explain why they maybe didn’t crack the list. After this, if there is anyone you feel is missing, let me know in the comments and I’ll be happy to look up their score.

Important display note. If you can’t see the entire image on your screen, right click the image and click “view” or click on the link to open it in a new window so you can see the entire image. Thanks.

The top 20 (click here for link)

01 – Chris Carter (OAK) – SONAR 98.88

As I mentioned, if you’re a 1B you better hit, and Carter sure has hit. After being traded twice in two weeks at the end of 2007, he’s coming off back to back impressive seasons. In 2008 he posted a line of .259/.361/.569 in the Cal League, but he took things up a notch in 2009, posting a cumulative line of .329/.422/.570 between AA and AAA. Four of his five indicator lights are green, the only non-green being his 20% K rate. The 133 strikeouts are high, but he is what he is, and that is a slugging power hitter who will draw walks. His average could drop at the next level, but the 13% BB rate appears to be for real (only 2 IBB), so I don’t expect any dropoff. He’s produced at AA and AAA, so there aren’t any other red flags here.

02 – Ryan Wheeler (ARI) – SONAR 86.36

Wheeler, a 5th round draft pick in the June draft out of Loyola Marymount University, had one of the best debuts of any 2009 draft pick. Wheeler’s score got a big bump from his very impressive .361 batting average across two stops, but he backed it up with a 13.3% BB rate, slightly better than Carter’s number. Unlike Carter, he only posted two green light indicators, BB% and a very low K rate, which ties in with the batting average. His XBH% and ISO aren’t bad, just not elite, and his .346 SecA is very good, but not eye popping. The impressive thing is he managed to score only 12 or so points lower than Carter, yet he had only half the plate appearances. Wheeler turned 21 in July, so he should open in A+ to remain age appropriate for his level. Its likely that he’ll see a dip in batting average, but with a great contact percentage, he should be able to hit for average as he moves up, and he might have more power to come.

03 – Matt Adams (STL) – SONAR 53.48

Adams was the first guy I looked at and said “hmmmm” when seeing his score, because I knew very little about him. He was a 23rd round pick in 2009 out of baseball powerhouse (not really) Slippery Rock in PA, and at 6’3, 230, he appears to be well put together. He split his time almost equally between the Appalachin League and the much tougher New York Penn League, but he put up big numbers at both stops. More impressively was his performance in the very pitcher friendly NYPL, where he posted a batting line of .346/.394/.523, with 15 extra base hits in only 130 AB. The one caution here is the lack of green lights, zero to be exact, which is somewhat of a concern. None of his periperhals are bad, or below average, but none jump out either. He struggled against lefthanders (.701 OPS), and you can expect some regression in 2010 based on balls in play. This is one that certainly seems to be on the high side.

04 – Anthony Rizzo (BOS) – SONAR 51.38

Rizzo is one of the best stories in the minors. He lost the bulk of the 2008 season to injury, as he had to undergo treatment for Hodgkins Lymphoma, and was eventually declared cancer free in the fall of 2008. He spent 2009 making up for lost time, putting up a .297/.368/.461 between A and A+. He saw his power drop off a bit after the promotion, but it could have also been a case of him running out of gas in his first full season back. He’ll play the bulk of the 2010 season at age 20, likely starting back in Salem and hopefully ending up in AA. Like Adams, all of his indicators are neutral, though he was very close with a 9.9% BB rate (see, its not really scientific)

05 – Ike Davis (NYM) – SONAR 51.14

The Mets took Davis in the first round of the 2008 draft, and he surprised everyone by struggling in his debut, with a .652 OPS in the NYPL and 0 HR in 215 AB. He rebounded in 2009, putting up a .298/.381/.524 line across A+/AA and 20 more HR than in his debut season. Davis has 4 green lights, a very positive sign, and though his 23% K rate is elevated, its not enough to really peg him down. He did struggle against lefties this year (.672 OPS), which is the concern that scouts seem to have on him.

06 – Chris Marrero (WAS) – SONAR 43.68

Marrero, a former first round pick and high school teammate of former Phillie prospect Adrian Cardenas, posted a solid bounceback year after missing a chunk of time with a broken wrist in 2008. His overall line of .284/.358/.452 doesn’t really jump out at you, but he does a little bit of everything at the plate, and his numbers were solid in the Carolina League before a late promotion to AA. The 9% BB rate is solid, and more importantly he still has time left to develop, as he’s likely to spend the first half of 2010 as a 21 year old in AA. Coming out of high school, he was projected to hit 30-35 HR a year, and while that type of power hasn’t really emerged, he does have a good hitter’s frame (6’3, 220) and some secondary skills.

07 – Logan Morrison (FLA) – SONAR 41.33

If you polled scouts, Morrison would probably be ranked ahead of everyone on this list at this point, even though he winds up down here at #7. His calling card is his patience, as seen in his .408 OB% this year across A+/AA, and his 18% BB rate. He’s shown excellent bat control, and though the power hasn’t fully emerged yet, scouts think he has 20-30 HR power, somewhere in that range, with tons of doubles. Morrison’s score was negatively impacted when he broke his wrist, which cost him probably 200+ PA’s and slowed down his path to the majors. For Phillies fans, Morrison is going to be a nuisance for years to come, or at least until he makes more than the league minimum and punches his ticket out of Florida. If he doesn’t exhaust his rookie eligibility in 2010 (and he might), he’s a candidate for the top spot on this list next season.

08 – Chris Parmleee (MIN) – SONAR 39.81

Its been a rocky road for Parmelee, a first round pick in the 2006 draft. After a nice half season debut in 2006, he struggled in the Midwest League in 2007, and was forced to repeat the league in 2008 while dealing with injury issues. In what looks like his breakout season, he hit .258/.359/.441 in the Florida State League, a very tough league on hitters. His 13% BB rate and 40% XBH rate both work in his favor, as does his .336 SecA. The Twins have been patient with him offensively, allowing him to repeat the MWL after he struggled in 2007, and it looks like it helped. He played almost an equal amount of RF in 2009, and has a strong arm, so that could potentially increase his value as a prospect if he can do a serviceable job there defensively.

09 – Ryan Strieby (DET) – SONAR 39.47

The Tigers took Strieby in the 4th round of the 2006 draft, and he’s steadily produced as he’s climbed the ladder. That, however, seems to be the knock against him, as Detroit has chosen to go year to year with him, having him spend a full year at each level as he’s moved up. In 2009, he spent the season at AA at age 23, a year older than ideal for the level, but he put up a solid .303/.427/.565 line in only 362 plate appearances. He shows 4 green indicators out of 5, with the only blemish being the 22% K rate. His .262 ISO ranks him near the top of the list, and his .463 SecA is tops among 1B. He missed a bunch of games over the last few months of the season, I’m presuming due to small injuries, which is one of the reasons for his lower score. Scouts don’t seem convinced, yet 2009 was his best statistical season, and he did it at AA. All of the indicators look good, and to me, he’s a pretty underrated prospect.

10 – Jon Singleton (PHI) – SONAR 37.25

I’ve written about Singleton a bit since the draft, expressing my general optimism about his prospect status, and that’s obviously based on his excellent debut. The GCL is one of the toughest hitting environments in the minors. The weather in Florida in the middle of the summer is brutal, many of the games are played in the early afternoon, right as the heat is reaching its apex, and the heavy air helps to punish hitters and help pitchers. Singleton’s line, .290/.395/.440 offers a number of big positives, the most impressive being his 15% BB rate and his 10.9% K rate. Singleton played the entire season at age 17, another big plus for him, and he’s likely to be young for his level at every stop along the way. So far, the power hasn’t really jumped out, but 37% XBH and a .150 ISO is certainly fine for his brief 119 PA cameo. Singleton is one of the most intriguing prospects in our system.

11 – Jonathan Rodriguez (STL) – SONAR 36.66

The Cards grabbed Rodriguez in the 17th round of the 2009 draft out of Puerto Rico, and he performed very well in his debut across two levels. After posting a .915 OPS in the GCL, he held his own with a .250/.363/.412 line in the NYPL. Rodriguez was 19, old for a high school prospect, but was still solid in 197 PA sample. The walk rate is what jumps out, 14.7%, with the rest of his numbers in the middle of the pack. Rodriguez fared better against LHP in his short sample, going .350/.409/.525 in 40 AB, with a .281/.410/.368 line against righties. This would indicate the power is still a ways off, but the discipline is still there.

12 – Brandon Allen (ARI) – SONAR 36.17

Allen came to the Diamondbacks for middle reliever Tony Pena in June, and the Diamondbacks seem to have gotten the better of this swap. Allen spent his first two pro seasons in rookie ball and stuttered in his first shot at Low A in 2006, posting a .637 OPS in the SAL. He repeated the level in 2007 and rebounded with a .283/.337/.483 line. His breakout came in 2008, where he put up a .278/.367/.555 line between A+/AA, and he followed that up by posting a .298/.373/.503 line between 3 different stops in 2009. Allen’s BB rate is solid (10%) and his .206 ISO was excellent, while also keeping the strikeouts manageable at 16%. The D-Backs gave him a callup near the end of the year, and the results weren’t impressive; .202/.284/.385 in 104 AB, and he struggled in the Arizona Fall League, going .177/.316/.274. Much was made of his struggles against lefties in the majors (.091/.231/.136), but he hit .317/.392/.538 against lefties in the minors this year, and has a career .257/.337/.463 line against lefties in 568 career minor league AB’s. Allen seems like a guy who will be a bit of a late bloomer, and its likely he’s going to need time to really break into the big leagues, but I actually think hes now slightly underrated because of his late season struggles.

13 – Gerardo Rodriguez (ATL) – SONAR 30.53

Rodriguez was originally signed by the Yankees, but was released for unknown reasons after the 2007 season. The Braves picked him up, and he looks like a decent find. Last year he hit .253/.310/.507 in the Appy League, and this year he put up a cumulative .269/.315/.487 line across A/A+. While that might not seem impressive, his score is elevated because of his performance at Advanced A Myrtle Beach. The Carolina League is a pitcher’s league, and Myrtle Beach is one of the toughest hitting parks in the league. Rodriguez went .281/.331/.500 in 242 PA’s at A+, a very impressive line considering his relative inexperience heading into 2009. His performance at A+ actually was significantly better than at single A Rome in the Sally League. Rodriguez started as a catcher, but was moved to 1B, and that looks like his long term destination. Rodriguez does come with a big red flag, the 28% K rate, and his 5.4% BB rate also raises flags. His raw power is impressive though (.218 ISO) and he’s still young enough to have potential as he moves up. He’ll need to make some adjustments and control his swing, but he’s definitely someone to keep an eye on.

Note: The word on the street is that the Blue Jays are going to use Brett Wallace as a 1B next year, which most people assumed would happen at some point. His score was 29.78, so he’d slot in right here. I’ll do a full writeup on him for the 3B prospects section.

14 – Matt Clark (SDP) – SONAR 28.79

The Padres selected Clark in the 12th round of the 2008 draft, and he’s another guy that wasn’t on my radar at all, but who has put up pretty decent numbers so far. Last year he put up a .279/.384/.443 line in the shortseason Northwest League, and the Padres conservatively started him in Low A this year, at age 22. His .266/.352/.484 line was decent for the MWL even at 22, but he upped his game after promotion to the Cal League, posting a .292/.367/.524 line in 286 PA. Lake Elsinore, his home park in the Cal, is one of the tougher hitters parks in an otherwise hitter friendly environment. Sure enough, at home he put up a .267/.341/.392 line, while putting up a .328/.404/.642 line away. Clark boasts 4 of 5 green indicators, including a 10.6% BB rate, 44% XBH, a .225 ISO and .351 SecA. He stands 6’5, 215, so I’m going to go out on a limb and say that his power is a product of a strong frame, not just the thin air and small ball parks in the Cal League. The one big flaw in Clark’s game appears to be his performance against LHP. He put up a .219/.291/.372 line in 137 AB v LHP, compared to a .307/.388/.557 line against RHP. The walk rate against lefties is encouraging, and this is a case of wanting to see more data, especially at AA, to confirm his status or see if this was a one year mirage. But he’s on my radar now, and that’s kind of the point of this whole system.

15 – Mike Zuanich (COL) – SONAR 28.31

Zuanich is even more obscure than Matt Clark, a 28th round draft pick in 2008 and possibly the first case of “true noise” in these rankings. Zuanich was poor in his short season debut in 2008, posting a .185/.327/.284 line in the Pioneer League. The Rockies started him in the Northwest League this year, another shortseason league, and he put up a .340/.476/.809 line in 63 PA before being quickly promoted to Low A. Arriving at Asheville, he put up a .362/.450/.616 line in 170 PA, equally ridiculous. He’s a big dude, standing 6’4, 225, and he absolutely crushed LHP in 2009; .447/.542/.723 in 47 AB, compared to .326/.434/.645 against RHP. Asheville is one of the best hitting parks in the SAL, and he was also helped there, posting a .451/.523/.686 line at home, compared to a .310/.413/.575 line on the road. The reality here is that he was horrendous in his debut, and at 22 in 2009, was way too old for shortseason ball, and really old for A ball. But that is factored into his score, and if his score wasn’t age adjusted, his score would be off the charts, because lets face it, those are video game numbers. Zuanich is the type of guy I expected to pop up, older guys who put up huge numbers, but his numbers were in another galaxy. Obviously you’ll need to see what he does at A+/AA/AAA before calling him a legit prospect, but he’s someone to watch. His .459 SecA was tops among all 1B prospects, as was his .308 ISO.

16 – Kiel Roling (COL) – SONAR 27.98

Roling, a 6th round pick in 2008, is the classic case of “too old for his level” so far in his two seasons. He started last year in the rookie Pioneer League, crushing to the tune of a 1.057 OPS. He picked up where he left off in 2009 with a .331/.401/.593 line at Single A Asheville. As I discussed with Zuanich, Asheville is a great hitting environment, but Roling actually hit better away from Asheville, going .337/.385/.629 compared to .313/.391/.540 at home. Roling’s big issue, like Zuanich, is lefties, as he hit just .250/.313/.458 in 72 AB’s v LHP, compared to .346/.408/.621 in 269 AB v RHP. Because he turns 23 in January, Colorado really needs to double jump him straight to the Texas League in 2010 to see what they have with him. At 6’3, 240, he’s obviously got raw power, but his BB rate and ISO both rank below Zuanich, though his platoon splits are slightly less of an issue. Need to see him at AA, but definitely somewhat interesting.

17 – Xavier Scruggs (STL) – SONAR 27.53

An obscure 19th round pick in the 2008 draft, Scruggs struggled somewhat in the NYPL this year before being promoted to the Midwest League, where he subsequently posted a big stat line out of nowhere. He struggled to the tune of a .676 OPS last year in the NYPL, improved to a .773 OPS in the NYPL in 2009, but then went off with a .295/.409/.527 line at Quad Cities. Scruggs gets high marks for his patience (13.5%) and raw power (.212 ISO), but his 28% K rate is a big red flag. His MWL sample could be indicating a breakout, or it could just be a small sample flare up. He turned 22 in September, so STL would be wise to jump him to A+ and see what he can do. If he struggles there, he’s likely going to flame out quickly from this list.

18 – Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) – SONAR 27.45

Goldschmidt, an 8th rounder, is basically the template for what an excellent debut from an older college hitter looks like in the system. He posted a .334/.408/.638 line in the hitter friendly Pioneer League, with an eye popping 18 HR in only 287 AB. A 10.9% BB rate is good, but the .304 ISO is what stands out, as does the .432 SecA. A 21 year old in a rookie league is expected to dominate, and dominate he did. An 8th round pick, he doesn’t appear to be a toolshed, though he has an average frame at 6’4, 220. Its easy to write off his performance because of his age, but its tough to completely overlook 48 extra base hits in just 287 PA’s. Like the guys above him, he’ll benefit from an aggressive promotion to start 2010, as he turned 22 in September.

19 – Brandon Snyder (BAL) – SONAR 26.74

Snyder is a familiar name, as he was the 13th overall pick way back in 2005. Originally drafted as a catcher, he took the unenviable road on the defensive spectrum, from toughest position to play to easiest, and while his bat is good, I’m not sure its elite. He struggled after his great 2005 debut, posting OPS numbers of .590 and .776 in 2006 and 2007, far from elite numbers out of a first rounder. But he rebounded with an .848 OPS last year at A+, and this year he posted a respectable .289/.362/.460 line overall at AA/AAA, but his numbers at AA stand out; .343/.421/.597 in 233 PA. Of course he wasn’t so good in AAA; .248/.316/.355 in 297 PA. His peripherals overall aren’t elite; 9.6% BB rate is good, but the power numbers don’t stand out. At just 22 and already with full season in the upper minors, he has some upside, but I think you’ll find him higher on other lists than this one. His poor showing in AAA is a red flag, but not a death blow.

20 – Michael McDade (TOR) – SONAR 26.41

McDade was a 6th round pick in 2007 out of a Nevada high school, and after 2 poor seasons, he showed promise in his first full season. He struggled last year splitting time between the NYPL and the MWL, but he played all of 2009 back in the MWL at age 20, and his .277/.336/466 line is miles ahead of his two previous efforts. His raw power is his one standout peripheral (.189 ISO), but isn’t elite, and he needs to work on cutting down the strikeouts. McDade is listed at 6’1, 270, which would make him fairly massive. 44 extra base hits is something to build on, but it would appear he’s still quite raw and is going to need time. This could be noise here.

Now for a few of the guys who will rank highly on scouts lists, but who didn’t fare particularly well according to SONAR

22 – Yonder Alonso (CIN, SONAR 25.21) – Alonso, a former first round pick, had a good but not great season in 2009, splitting time between A+ and AA, and also missing time with a wrist injury. His 12% BB rate is good, but his power wasn’t really there, and he loses ground because he missed time due to injury. He is a candidate to move up next season if he remains healthy, and his biggest issue remains his ability to hit lefties (.646 OPS in 2009)

25 – Freddie Freeman (ATL, SONAR 24.71) – Freeman was kind of underrated after last season, even though he blitzed the Sally League as an 18 year old, largely because he was overshadowed by teammate and uber prospect Jason Heyward. Freeman’s 2009 didn’t go quite as well, as he performed fairly well in A+ but struggled mightily in AA after being promoted. His .248/.308/.342 line in AA drags down his overall score, but his very young age does bode well for future success. I’d expect him to move up this list next season if he makes the necessary adjustments in AA.

26 – Justin Smoak (TEX, SONAR 23.81) – Smoak draws universal praise from scouts for his good approach at the plate, his power, his switch hitting abilities, and his defense at 1B. His BB rate stands out (15.9%), but the power wasn’t really there in 2009, with just a .153 ISO and 30% XBH rate. He was promoted aggressively, starting at AA and moving to AAA, but maybe that was slightly aggressive. Like Freeman, he has considerable upside, and will rank near the top of prospect lists for 2010. Its just a case of projection moreso than what he’s already accomplished, at least power wise. Smoak also struggled hitting righthanded this year, which may just be an anomaly.

56 – Allan Dykstra (SDP, SONAR 12.24) – Dykstra, a first round pick in 2008, struggled mightily in the MWL in 2009, even though he was 22 and way too old for the league. His .226/.397/.375 line doesn’t inspire much confidence going forward, even with a 19% BB rate. The power wasn’t there, even though his .279 BABIP suggests he was unlucky as well as poor at the plate. He actually hit lefties better than righties, with an .868 OPS v LHP and a .758 OPS v RHP. Because he carries the 1st rounder tag, he’ll get many more shots to show what he can do, but 2009 was a definite down year for him.

118 – David Cooper (TOR, SONAR 3.98) – Cooper, like Dykstra, was a first round pick in 2008, going 17th overall, and was actually a guy that I liked if he’d gotten to the Phillies. Well, so far not so good. Cooper spent time at 3 levels in his debut season, doing good work in the NYPL (.963 OPS) and the MWL (.936 OPS) before finishing up with a .304/.373/.435 line in the FSL. Maybe the product of an over-aggressive promotion, he never got on track in AA this year, posting a .258/.340/.389 line in 538 PA. The 11% BB rate is nice, but the rest of his line was really empty, including the .131 ISO and the .256 SecA. He’ll likely repeat AA in 2010, and he’ll need to greatly improve his overall game.

130 – Beau Mills (CLE, SONAR 2.67) – Mills was a first round pick (13th overall in 2007), and was drafted as a 3B, but his defensive deficiencies have already shifted him to 1B, and his bat has dropped off. He posted a solid .293/.373/.506 line at A+ last year, but after moving to AA in 2009 he struggled, posting a .267/.308/.417 line in 564 PA’s. His peripheral numbers weren’t good, with a 5.5% BB rate and a meager .207 SecA. BA had him ranked 5th in Cleveland’s system at this time last year, and I expect he’ll tumble out of their top 10, especially with their newly acquired prospects. 2009 was a big bump in the road for his prospect status.

Lars Anderson (BOS, SONAR -16.72) – Anderson was all the rage the last few seasons, as is typical with Red Sox prospects, especially those that sign for huge bonuses. Anderson did a lot to justify the hype prior to 2009, rolling up an .829 OPS in his 2007 debut at A/A+, and following it up with a .934 OPS at A+/AA last year. But something happened in 2009, as he slumped to a .233/.328/.345 line in a full season at AA Portland in the Eastern League. Anderson maintained his patience at the plate, with a 12.3% BB rate, but everything else fell off the map, as he posted a 22% K rate and more disappointing a .112 ISO and .257 SecA. His .296 BABIP overall isn’t crazy low, but the 54% groundball rate is troubling for a power hitter, as is the low 13% line drive rate. His problems were either mechanical, or pitchers were able to find a weakness in his approach and exploit it. He was poor against both lefties and righties, though he did elevate the ball a bit more against RHP. Anderson is a confounding case. Scouts were almost universal in their praise for him at this time last year, but in just a year those same scouts seem to have turned on him and expressed concerns, now calling him overhyped and overrated. Its tough to figure out what to project for him in 2010. He’s still very young, he was a year young for AA in 2009, and repeating the level would obviously be beneficial for him. If 2009 was the result of a correctable mechanical flaw, then expect him to bounce back in 2010. If not, then trouble awaits.

Eric Hosmer (KCR, SONAR -6.56) – Hosmer was the 3rd overall pick in the 2008 draft, and like Anderson, he fell apart this season. Then again, he logged only 15 PA’s last year, so we had nothing to evaluate him on other than scouting reports prior to 2009. Hosmer was jumped to Low A to start in 2009, common for highly drafted high school kids, but he struggled from the start, and ended up posting a .254/.352/.382 line in 327 PA’s in the MWL. The Royals, for a reason that doesn’t seem clear, decided this merited a promotion, and the results were predictable at A+; .206/.280/.299 in 107 PA. There were reports that he a LASIK type surgery and that he was having vision problems, which I guess could be one reason for his very poor debut. Or he could have been more raw than originally thought, and he just needs to have his time table slowed down. The weird thing is, they’ve already moved him up to A+, so now what? Does he start back there? He’d probably be better served back in Low A. One bad year, especially your first full year, doesn’t end your prospect life, but it was a definite disappointment. On raw tools and scouting reports, he’ll rank much higher.

Here are a few scores for 2009 draftees who weren’t addressed above

Rich Poythress, SEA (2nd round) -4.78
Jeff Malm, TAM (5th round) -4.16 (only 25 PA, I was high on him pre-draft based on scouting reports)
Tyler Townsend, BAL (3rd round) -13.26 (NYPL, 133 PA)

The Sleeper

David Anderson, BAL (Undrafted FA) SONAR 13.10

Anderson was a pitcher at Coastal Carolina, putting up unimpressive numbers, and wasn’t drafted. He debuted for Baltimore in 2009, at age 21, in the GCL. Normally that would put a guy off my radar, because the average GCL prospect is 18, but Anderson put up a .271/.394/.431 line, and he did this after converting to the field. He may have been a two way guy at Coastal Carolina, but I can’t find batting stats for him. Anyway, a 16.3% BB rate, coupled with a 14.5% K rate is intriguing, as is the .354 SecA. His power was pedestrian, and he loses major points for being so old for a rookie league, but that’s why he’s a sleeper, because he appears to be a conversion project, and those types of guys kind of operate outside the normal constraints of age related to level. He’s probably no one, but I thought his situation seemed interesting, so I’m making a note of him here.

Summary: So this is installment #1. I tried to be thorough and go over the various aspects of the system as it applies to individual players. I hope that seeing it applied to individual prospects at the same position, in various leagues and of various ages helps shed some light on the process. If you profile scouts and ask them to rattle off their top 10 first base prospects, it will look radically different from my list. But as I’ve gone great lengths to explain in other spots, that’s kind of the point. I’m not really interested in what scouts say with regard to this system, because its meant to be used as one data point to either confirm or challenge the consensus scouting view on a player based on what he did in 2009. I know that scouts love Logan Morrison, for example, but I’m only interested in how his numbers look. And more interestingly, I’m curious why scouts don’t love some of the guys who scored higher on the list. My goal when looking at anything baseball related is “why?”, and my motives for creating something like this was to raise questions and to confirm or challenge my own notions of prospects, as well as to maybe pick up on a few sleepers/underrated guys, or conversely, identify guys who might be overrated/overhyped.