Brrr…Wintery. Perhaps we should gather around a stove of some sort.
Discuss.
Maikel Franco’s Contact
There has been a lot written and said about Maikel Franco‘s swing over the course of the season. There have been talks about the shape and length as well as how much power it is going to generate. Overall scouts have questioned how the swing as a whole will translate to the next level. Franco has big time raw power and he has elite bat speed and hand eye coordination. He has demonstrated the ability to make contact, but the quality of that contact has begun to come into question lately. The goal is to explore if that is true and what that deterioration in contact might look like.
Contact Type:
So the first question is what kind of contact is Franco making. Here is a break down of his percentages across each level Franco played at this year (sample size of 228, 249, and 88 balls in play respectively).
The first thing that jumps out is the spike in ground balls in AA that coincided with a drop in fly balls. The next thing is that outside of a spike in winter ball, his line drive rate is very low (for example the lowest LD% among qualified 3B in 2013 was Todd Frazier at 18.1%), given that line drives have the highest probability of being hits, that is troubling. The decline in flyball rate is troubling as well because that is where the HR power is coming from. Overall it is an indication that Franco is not making the best contact possible, but given that minor league ball in play classifications can be off lets look at some spray charts. Continue reading Maikel Franco’s Contact
Phillies Trade Rasmussen and Kratz for Brad Lincoln
Yesterday the Phillies made a small little trade that could end up being a small victory or it could be a net zero.
The Phillies shipped out Erik Kratz, who is a below average back up catcher with some pop and a good throwing arm, along with Rob Rasmussen (acquired for Michael Young) in exchange for Blue Jays reliever Brad Lincoln.
Rasmussen who I wrote about recently shows 4 averagish pitches from a really small frame. He has an outside shot at being a #5 starter, but his most likely role is middle reliever or LOOGY. Continue reading Phillies Trade Rasmussen and Kratz for Brad Lincoln
General Discussion – Week of 12-2-2013
Non-Tender Deadline is today. This team probably shouldn’t let go of John Mayberry for nothing. If they eventually sign a backup CF, he should be tradeable, even if it is just to dump what will likely be a reasonable contract for a bench bat with pop, and they already have one 40-man roster spot available for a rule 5 guy if they find one. No harm in keeping him right now.
Bastardo has been discussed in the comments as a possible non-tender. I really don’t see it, unless he truly hurt Rube’s feelings over Biogenesis or something. Otherwise, he’s a real MLB bullpen arm, and there’s no reason not to keep him.
Frandsen is a bench guy who can hit a little and he will make almost nothing in 2014, even if he goes all the way to arbitration and wins. Kendrick is your #3 or #4 starter next year. In a perfect world, you wouldn’t need to keep a questionable arm like him, but there’s no depth to let him go and he’s been very durable, if nothing else. And Revere is a no-brainer – he will be tendered.
I predict five tendered contracts. In an ideal world it would be two, Bastardo and Revere, but as we all know, the 2014 Phillies will be far from ideal.
Discuss.
Something to Dream On: The 2017 Phillies
Last week I started exploring the future of the Phillies with a luck at what could be in 2016. The series continues with 2017 as some more money comes off the books and a couple more guys arrive in the majors. Just as before here are the starting assumptions.
- The Phillies are not trading away any players
- Minor Leaguers will progress as “normal” and will not have any career ending injuries.
- The Phillies will be rational about resigning players
- I am not accounting for FA acquisitions and Draft Picks, however I will have a salary total that can be used to dream on FA acquisitions that could fill in the holes
- Arbitration figures for salaries are taken from similar players
Catcher: Tommy Joseph and Andrew Knapp
This isn’t going to be a great defensive pair but it should provide plenty of offense. In this scenario Knapp is likely in a back-up position given his inexperience, but he could overtake Joseph depending on how his hitting progresses. More than anything else this pair should be really cheap. Salary: $1 million Continue reading Something to Dream On: The 2017 Phillies
General Discussion – Week of 11-25-2013
Did anyone else get this is the mail today?
Discuss.
Phillies Add Joseph, Dugan, Altherr, and Rasmussen to 40 Man Roster
Not a lot of in depth analysis here, the three position players were must-adds due to their upside. The Phillies acquired Rasmussen for Michael Young and saw enough to add him. Rasmussen in a starting role is more of a #5 starter, but out of the bullpen the stuff could tick up more.
More on the Rule V and who could be in danger when we get closer to the Winter Meetings.
Something to Dream On: The 2016 Phillies
For Phillies fans this offseason really has been a continuation of what has been a rough 2 years. The amount of hope left dwindles by the day, and the confidence that tomorrow will be better than today. If you have hope, the year to target is 2016, it is when the contracts start to fall off and the first wave of prospects starts to arrive. On the suggestions of John Stolnis (@FelskeFiles) and Corinne (@Ut26), rather than just start with 2016 or look at the end result in 2018, this is the first part of a step by step transition of a rebuilding team.
In working on this activity here are the starting assumptions:
- The Phillies are not trading away any players
- Minor Leaguers will progress as “normal” and will not have any career ending injuries.
- The Phillies will be rational about resigning players
- I am not accounting for FA acquisitions and Draft Picks, however I will have a salary total that can be used to dream on FA acquisitions that could fill in the holes
- Arbitration figures for salaries are taken from similar players
Obviously these are a lot of assumptions that will not hold true because prospects are unpredictable, draft picks especially the 2014 #7 overall pick could have large influences, and the front office will not be static for the next two years. Continue reading Something to Dream On: The 2016 Phillies
Scout.com Phillies Top 20
Kiley McDaniel is the Minor League analyst for scout.com and he has just released his Phillies Top Prospect list. Given that is usually behind a paywall that many of us venture beyond it hasn’t always been a well covered list. But this year the list is free http://sbb.scout.com/2/1348329.html and so we will take a look at it. A note he has left off players with significant MLB or professional time like MAG, Cesar, Asche, De Fratus, Pettibone, Aumont, Savery, and Galvis
General Discussion – Week of 11-18-2013
Last week I tried to predict/propose something and it totally backfired and like the opposite thing happened. This week’s prediction? Ryan Howard and Jonathan Papelbon will both not be traded.
Discuss.
