This is a retrospective back on the Top 30 prospects list I wrote before the start of the season.  My opinion is that anyone who puts their opinion out there should be accountable for that opinion, in this case rather than just ask whether I was right or wrong, but more why was it right or wrong.  The goal is to explore things in the development of a prospect that can point to growth or regression.  Additionally just because a prospect fails to live up to or exceeds expectations does it mean the base analysis was wrong when it was written.

The 11-15 range was filled with disappointment.  There are a lot of high risk high rewards guys present and it did not go out well.  Additionally I was flat out wrong in my evaluation in some places.  As always the full list can be found here https://phuturephillies.com/top-30-prospects/mattwinks-top-30/2013-top-30/.

15. Dylan Cozens

Cozens is a freak athlete with plenty of raw power.  He has a stiff long swing that will likely have plenty of miss in it, but he has some semblance of an approach.  In the field he can stick in right with his plus arm for now but as a giant already it is hard to project him long term in the outfield.  Even if he has to move to first the bat will play.  He is likely destined for Extended Spring Training and Williamsport but could find a way to Lakewood at some point. Continue reading Top 30 Accountability : 11-15 →

The report card for outfielders in the top half of the organization. Remember, grades are based against pre season expectations of that player, not against each other. Next up is the report card for the outfielders in the lower half of the organization, coming up over the weekend.

Lehigh Valley

Leandro Castro, 24, Signed as a free agent in 2006; .256/.280/.368 in 438AB’s; 8HR 55RBI; 20SB; .328 vs. LHP; .228 vs. RHP; .308 with RISP; .226 Post All Star Break; 3%bb/17%K rates; 115 games in the OF with 8 errors; 8 OF assists; Castro performed better than I thought that he would at the AAA level and was a consistently clutch performer for the IronPigs.  He lowered his strikeout rate to a very manageable level and stole a respectable 20 bases.  The negatives are the continued very low walk rate and the fact that Castro is prone to enter outer space for periods of time causing some real head scratching plays.  All that said, 2013 was a success. Grade: B; 2014: Castro is a guy that could realistically be plucked in the Rule 5 if not protected.  Frankly, I was designate Gillies for assignment and protect Castro to give him another year to progress. He very well could become a capable 4th OF.

Steve Susdorf, 27, Phils 19th round pick in 2008 draft; .313/.390/.403 in 310AB’s; 2HR 36RBI; 11SB; .279 vs. LHP; .321 vs. RHP; .293 with RISP; .269 Post All Star Break; 11%BB/15%k rates; 64 games in the OF with 3 errors (.970); 3 OF assists; Also played 1 game at 1B with 1 error. Susdorf had an excellent year with the bat for Lehigh Valley. The only negative is the laack of power but Susdorf gives you perhaps the best at bat throughout the minor league system.  Problematically, his defense is passable at best. Grade: A; 2014: Again, trying to separate my feelings as Susdorf is a super guy…I would be surprised if Susdorf is not exposed to the Rule 5 draft and could easily help a team, giving very capable major league at bats in a limited role. I am hoping he is back and the Phils give him a chance to earn the 25th spot on the roster in a role similar to Greg Gross, who Susdorf reminds me of…Realisitically, either another organization or Lehigh Valley. Continue reading Report Card–Outfield, Upper Half of System →

This is a retrospective back on the Top 30 prospects list I wrote before the start of the season.  My opinion is that anyone who puts their opinion out there should be accountable for that opinion, in this case rather than just ask whether I was right or wrong, but more why was it right or wrong.  The goal is to explore things in the development of a prospect that can point to growth or regression.  Additionally just because a prospect fails to live up to or exceeds expectations does it mean the base analysis was wrong when it was written.

Continuing on with the next group of 5 players including a pair of HS SSs turned third basemen who are trending in the opposite directions.  As always the original list lives here https://phuturephillies.com/top-30-prospects/mattwinks-top-30/2013-top-30/

25. Tyson Gillies

So the good: Gillies is a great defensive center fielder with good range and a plus arm. Gillies makes good contact and currently has good plate discipline. The bad: Gillies cannot stay healthy and there seems to be a consistent hamstring problem. Unless he develops better game power (and a swing to pair with it) his on base and running ability (if it comes back) will be severely reduced. Overall it is a package with some upside, but it is limited by the large injury risk. Continue reading Top 30 Accountability: 21-25 →

Onward to the report card for Catchers throughout the organization.  Remember, grades are based on pre-season expectations against themselves NOT against each other. Prospect rankings are based on which players will potentially have the most impact for the Phillies as major leaguers. Look for the next report on outfielders in the top half of the organization (LV, REA, and CW) coming Wednesday or Thursday.

Lehigh Valley

Cameron Rupp, Soon to be 25, Phils 3rd round pick in 2010; .258/.318/.437 in 325 AB’s between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 14HR 45RBI; 5%bb/21% k rates; Hit .269 for Lehigh Valley; .404 vs. LHP; .215 vs. RHP; 84 games caught with 6 errors (.991)and 6 passed balls; Threw out 28 of 82 base stealers (34%); A very good year of progress for Rupp who hit for power and was very good defensively.  His production was pretty much exactly what we would have hoped pre-season.  Grade: B+ ; 2014: He will see major league time, just a matter of when. Until then, Lehigh Valley. Prospect Ranking: 14

Steven Lerud, 28, Re-Signed as a free agent in 2013; .217/.353/.311 in 180 AB’s; 3HR 21RBI; .212 vs. LHP, .218 vs. RHP; .241 with RISP; Hit .167 Post All Star Game; 16%bb/23% k rates; 60 games caught with 8 errors (.982); 10 passed balls; Threw out 18 of 51 would be base stealers(35%); Very pedestrian numbers for Lerud with the caveat that he does get on base because of a good eye at the plate and did very well gunning down base stealers.  Grade: C; 2014: Another organization.  Continue reading Report Card–Catchers →

End of the season report card on all 2B and SS. Remember, grades are based upon what pre-season expectations were for each player, measured against actual performance NOT against each other. Next up will be catchers on Tuesday.

Lehigh Valley

Cesar Hernandez, 23, Signed as a free agent in 2008; .314/.378/.406 in 401 AB’s; 2HR 37RBI; 33SB; .321 vs. LHP, .305 vs. RHP; .264 with RISP; .325 post all star break; 9%BB/19% k rates; 79 games at 2B with 9 errors (.976); 4.56 R/F; 24 games in the OF with 4 errors (.948); 2.54 R/F. Hernandez far exceeded all expectations in 2013 and solidified himself as a top 10 prospect entering 2014.  Even while being flip flopped from 2B into CF, Hernandez continued to perform at a very high level offensively, hitting well above .300 all year and was among the league leaders in SB’s.  The question at the major league level: where does he fit.  Grade: A; 2014: Philadelphia; Prospect Ranking: 4

Michael Martinez, 31, Acquired in the 2011 Rule 5 draft; .300/.352/.407 in 243 AB’s; 3HR 28RBI; 6SB; .343 vs. LHP; .283 vs. RHP; .311 with RISP; .275 Post All Star Break; 7%BB/14% k rates; 46 games at SS with 9 errors (.954); 12 games at 2B with 2 errors (.968); 10 games in the OF without an error; 2 games at 3B with 1 error. I desperately try to separate my feelings for MiniMart as a major leaguer as opposed to the season that Martinez had as a minor leaguer.  Put simply, Lehigh Valley could not have asked for anything more out of him.  He hit for average and was a offensive catalyst for Lehigh Valley (words I thought would never be associated with Martinez). His versatility was an additional plus as well. Now that said, I hope and pray never to see him in a Phillies uniform again (all due respect)Grade: A-; 2014:  He could be back in Lehigh Valley and just as easily could be with another organization. Continue reading Report Card–Middle Infield →

Before we get started, a couple of notes to try to keep the discussion on track. Each player that is on a final minor league roster or has less than 130 major league at bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on a major league roster will be graded.  As far as grading goes, players will be graded against their own pre-season expectations as opposed to grading them against others in the organization.  While I will be positing Top 40 rankings attached to the appropriate players, a final Top 40 list will be published for discussion when the report cards are done.  To be considered for the Top 40, the same rules apply as above (less than 130 major league AB’s; 50IP and 45 days or less on ML roster). My hope is to get a new article out every three days or so, finishing up the entire system by mid October.

Lehigh Valley

Josh Fields, 30, SIgned as a free agent in 2013; .289/.337/.406 in 377 AB’s; 4HR 45RBI; 10SB; .348 vs. LHP, .264 vs. RHP; .330 with RISP; .258 Post All STar Break; 7%bb/27% k rates; 31 games at 1B with 3 errors (.987); 7.29 R/F; 12 games at 3B with 1 error (.964); 10 games in the OF without an error. Fields had a very good year with the bat, showed his versatility, and was a good guy to have in the clubhouse.  Grade: B+. 2014 projection: Another organization.  I am sure that from Fields perspective having been left out of the callups, he needs to focus his career on a situation where he may be able to get some roster time at the major league level. Continue reading Report Card–Corner Infielders →

A big part of the development cycle is winter and fall ball.  This post will track all players (who project to have prospect eligibility) participating in various offseason leagues as the information becomes available.

Major Leagues:

Mauricio Robles, Cameron Rupp, JC Ramirez, Cesar Hernandez

Florida Instructional League:

JP Crawford, Shane Watson, Larry Green Jr, Delvi Fransisco, Carlos Tocci, Kevin Walter, Zach Cooper, Mitch Walding (rehab) Continue reading Fall/Winter Assignments →

The final edition of “hot or not”, spanning from August 22–September 1.  Zach Collier has made the decision as to whether to keep him on the 40 increasingly difficult with his strong finish…Quietly, Dylan Cozens had a very solid season in Williamport…Larry Greene ends the season where it began, on the not hot list…Drew Anderson’s numbers this season for WIlliamsport were as good as anyone in the organization…I am nervous about Adam Morgan and not convinced he is healthy after watching several of his post injury starts…After a fairly miserable season, Kyle Simon finished stronged…I have always liked Mike Nesseth. He knows how to pitch, and will be a major leaguer…The 2013 season of Kenny Giles has to go down as one of this season’s true disappointments.

Hot Hitters: Deivi Gruillon (.400); Zach Collier (.354); Willie Carmona (.333, 8R 6RBI); Aaron Altherr (.333); Andrew Knapp (.333); Dylan Cozens (.325, 9R 2HR 8RBI); Art Charles (.324); Michael Martinez (.322); Robinson Torres(.320, 5RBI, 2SB); Maikel Franco (.318, 9R 4HR 8RBI); Honorable Mention: Perkins, Lino

Not Hot Hitters: Jon Roof (.040); Nick Ferdinand(.105); Logan Moore (.111); Justin Parr (.115); Trey WIlliams(.133); Carlos ALonso (.139); Larry Greene (.143); Wilmer Oberto(.160); Albert Cartwright (.172); Sebastian Valle (.172) Continue reading Hot or Not →

The final number is 3 years 12 million with a 4th year vesting/team option.  Negotiations hit a snag with regards to injury concerns.  Gonzalez has been placed on the 40 man roster and John Lannan has been moved to the 60 day DL to make room.