The hits just keeping coming. It’s like being a kid at Christmas, and every 2 hours, you get a new toy. Goldstein has his list of the top 50 talents in this year’s draft, ranked on pure talent, not signability, and based more on projections as a pro. Here is the list, you probably need a subscription to read the full thing, but you should have a subscription to BP anyway 😉
Some highlights..
JE posted this in the comments section of another post, thought it was worth it’s own slot. This looks MUCH better for the Phillies, and it’s quite interesting in some other spots.
1. Tampa Bay Devil Rays: David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt University
2. Kansas City Royals: Rick Porcello, RHP, Seton Hall Prep (N.J.)
3. Chicago Cubs: Josh Vitters, 3B, Cypress HS (Calif.)
4. Pittsurgh Pirates: Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri State
5. Baltimore Orioles: Phillipe Aumont, RHP, Ecole Du Versant Gatineau, Quebec
6. Washington Nationals: Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson University
7. Milwaukee Brewers: Jarrod Parker, RHP, Norwell HS (Ind.)
8. Colorado Rockies: Nick Schmidt, LHP, University of Arkansas
9. Arizona Diamondbacks: Mike Moustakas, 3B, Chatsworth HS (Calif.)
10. San Francisco Giants: Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech
11. Seattle Mariners: Casey Weathers, RHP, Vanderbilt
12. Florida Marlins: Julio Borbon, CF, University of Tennessee
13. Cleveland Indians: Blake Beavan, RHP, Irving HS (Texas)
14. Atlanta Braves: Jason Heyward, Henry County HS (Ga.)
15. Cincinnati Reds: Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Memorial HS (Texas)
16. Toronto Blue Jays: Matt Dominguez, 3B, Chatsworth HS (Calif.)
17. Texas Rangers: Matt Harvey, RHP, Fitch HS (Conn.)
18. St. Louis Cardinals: Jake Arrieta, RHP, Texas Christian University
19. Philadelphia Phillies: Devin Mesoraco, C, Punxsatawney HS (Pa.)
20. Los Angeles Dodgers: Madison Bumgarner, LHP, South Caldwell HS (N.C.)
21. Toronto Blue Jays: Beau Mills, 3B, Lewis-Clark State
22. San Francisco Giants: Aaron Poreda, LHP, University of San Francisco
23. San Diego Padres: James Simmons, RHP, UC Riverside
24. Texas Rangers: Michael Main, RHP, Deland HS (Fla.)
25. Chicago White Sox: Chris Withrow, RHP, Midland Christian HS (Texas)
26. Oakland A’s: Sean Doolittle, 1B, University of Virginia
27. Detroit Tigers: Tim Alderson, RHP, Horizon HS, Scottsdale
28. Minnesota Twins: Peter Kozma, SS, Owasso HS (Okla.)
29. San Francisco Giants: Josh Smoker, LHP, Calhoun HS (Ga.)
30. New York Yankees: Wendell Fairley, OF, George County-Lucedale HS (Miss.)
While I clearly would love Mesoraco at 19, some of the picks above us don’t make an awful lot of sense. The rumors are that Porcello is asking for 10 million dollars in a total package to sign….even with a new regime in KC, I don’t see that happening. If they pass, they’ll likely take Ross Detwiler. At #3, Vitters makes sense, and he’s been linked to Chicago constantly over the last month. I can’t see Milwaukee taking Parker, as they are deep in pitching but kind of shallow in impact bats. This seems like a good destination for Moustakas or Heyward. Nick Schmidt to Colorado seems like the overdraft of the round. Florida loves prep arms, but Borbon would represent an organizational need, so I guess I can see the logic there. 13-24 make sense to me, but I feel like Main is going to go higher than 24. I think Fairley is a big stretch at 30, and I don’t see Arrieta going 18th.
Interesting stuff, no doubt. This is the best case mock for the Phillies that I’ve seen to date.
The info over the next few days will come fast and furious, so I’ll just share it and we can discuss it. Two interesting notes from a chat with Alan Matthews and John Manuel at Baseball America today..
Q: Sean from Toronto asks:
Is there any chance Chris Withrow is selected in the first round? How does Withrow compare to fellow Texan Blake Beavan?
A:Alan Matthews: I first saw Withrow in a showcase at the U. of Arkansas right after last year’s draft, and fell in love with his delivery and projection. He was not invited to attend the Area Code Games last summer in California, which was curious to me because I thought, in terms of projection, he deserved to be mentioned in the same breath with the more-heralded Beavan. He began to turn some of that projection into present stuff this season, and is one of the sleepers of this year’s draft. First round? Might be a stretch there, but certainly I would not be surprised to see him go as high as the Philles at 37 or Dodgers at 39.
I know that our own draft guru JE is a huge fan of Withrow, so this must make him happy to see the Phillies associated with him at 37. Sounds good to me. Here is Withrow’s profile again, still no video.
And then this..
Q: Sean from Toronto asks:
How would you rank Dominguez, Ahrens, Mesoraco, Noonan, and Kozma based purely on their bats?
A:Alan Matthews: Strictly on the bat, it’s Dominguez, Mesoraco, Ahrens, Noonan and Kozma.
I still don’t think Dominguez will be there at 19, but if both he and Mesoraco are there, and we don’t take one of them, I’ll be ticked. Dominguez is a true 3B, potential gold glove defender, and his bat has improved this spring, according to another tidbit later in the chat. He seems like a lock at 19 if there.
I was really looking forward to Keith’s take on the first round, he seems very informed on the amateur side of the game and probably has a wealth of connections from his prior job. Law’s first round looks a bit different from many of the other mocks I’ve seen, but his logic makes sense on many of the picks. His pick for the Phillies wouldn’t surprise me, but it sure would disappoint me, then again, we’re Phillies fans, disappointment is all part of the game, right? Anyway, here goes…
A bunch of random things on my mind this morning, let’s get to it.
* The Lakewood rotation is in shambles. This article a few days ago mentions that Kyle Drabek is on the DL (why?) and Jarrod Freeman was sent back to extended spring training….presumably because he was having trouble getting guys out. Ben Pfinsgraff, a personal favorite of mine, is back in action after some time on the DL, and could move back into the rotation for the time being. He’s been lights out as a reliever, and I wonder if he will be fast tracked once the new crop of guys from the draft make their way to Lakewood in July.
Jim Salisbury, excellent baseball writer for the Philadelphia Inquirer, was kind enough to answer some questions for me in preparation for this week’s draft. As many know, lots of teams play these things close to the vest, as to not tip their hand before the draft, but Jim had some insight into the thinking within the organization, and was gracious enough to share it with us. This week, I’ll keep posting more tidbits and draft rumors if I can find them, as well as keeping you up to date on the minors. So, here is the Q/A with Jim, enjoy.
This will be fairly self explanatory. Yesterday I attempted to outline the best and worst case scenarios for the Phillies picks, now I’ll take a shot at laying out the entire first round. My guesses are, well, just that, guesses. With so much talent in this draft, one guy sliding or jumping could change the entire composition of the first round. I’ll give small blurbs with each pick as to why I see it going down in that fashion. Only one person sent me their own guess at the first 30, I’ll post that after I give my rundown, then we’ll see who gets closer.
Ok, so we’ve done a lot of discussing, we’ve looked at a lot of different guys, and now it’s time to figure out who the Phillies should take, who they are likely to take, what the best case scenario would be, and on the flipside, what the worst case scenario could be. The draft is very volatile, meaning that one guy going higher or lower than expected could cause a ripple effect and influence many other picks. For that reason, I’m only going to guess the #19 and #37 picks, because, well, at #84, there’s really no telling who may have slipped because of signability. So, I’ll give you my “best case” for both picks, listing 3 players who would be ideal at that spot, in my order of preference, and then I’ll give the “worst case”, 3 guys I really don’t want to see, then I’ll sum it up with my exact guess on the pick. Tomorrow I’ll roll out my complete mock draft of the first round, we’ll see how close I can get. If you’d like to take a guess yourself, check back to last week, I made a mock draft post with the draft order, just copy that into an e-mail, fill it out, and send it to me, I’ll post your results along with mine. On to the picks
Continue reading Final analysis of Phillies’ first two draft picks
If you’ve been following along for the last few weeks, I’ve begun to dissect the 2007 draft and started to ponder who the Phillies may end up with. While my belief is that you take the best available player all the time, our system is so devoid of position prospects, you almost hope that the best available guy is a position player, simply because of our lacking, but at the same time, pitching is still at a premium all around baseball, and this draft class is stocked with pitchers, especially prep pitchers. In previous entries I pondered the first round and the compensation round, hoping we’d be able to land guys like Devin Mesoraco and Nevin Griffith, and now we’ll look at who might be there in the 2nd round.
An idea I tossed around in the latest draft post, I plan on taking a stab at all 30 picks in the first round, probably next week. If you really follow this stuff and want to take a crack as well, I’d love to have your response and we can see who comes the closest. I’ll make the deadline for submission next Thursday, May 31st, and you can send your entries to phuturephillies at hotmail dot com, replacing the “at” and “dot com” with their appropriate symbols. At the bottom of this post, I’ll type out the exact draft order, so all you have to do is copy/paste and then fill in your picks. I’ll post all of the results once I receive them, if you don’t want your name posted with your picks, just give me an alternate display name to use.
Phuture Phillies 