Yours truly got his question on the Rule 5 Draft answered by Jim Callis at BA, and hopefully it clears up some questions we had here on who is eligible and who isn’t. I haven’t even looked who the Phillies will have to make decisions on yet, let alone looking for possible targets. But, here is what Jim said on the issue.

Under the new collective bargaining agreement, college players have four years and high school players have five years before they have to be protected on a 40-man roster, correct? Is this from when they sign, or from when they first play? For example, Brad Harman of the Phillies signed out of Australia in 2003, when he was 17, but he didn't make his debut until 2004. So he wouldn't have to be protected until after 2008, right? Jason Jaramillo, who was drafted out of Oklahoma State in 2004 and then played that summer, he has to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason, correct?

James Moyer
Washington D.C.

James is correct on the status or Harman and Jaramillo, but the recent change to rule is a little more involved. First, it’s based purely on the player’s age at the time of his signing, with those 18 or younger in one group and those 19 or older in another. Under the previous CBA, a player’s 40-man clock started ticking when he began playing, so a club could postdate his contract to the following year and buy an extra season before it had to protect him. Teams had to place a 19-and-older signee on the 40-man roster after three years, and an 18-and-younger signee after four years, or risk losing him in the major league Rule 5 draft at the Winter Meetings.

Now the rule gives clubs an additional year before they have protected players, though it no longer allows teams to postdate the contracts to buy extra time. Teams get the best of both worlds for players signed before the new CBA went into effect after the 2006 offseason, as they can take advantage of not only the added year, but also a postdated contract if one applies.

Link

Before I get to the new tidbit about the Phillies interest in Francisco Rosario, I wanted to dig into the construction of the 25 man roster a bit, as it was mentioned in depth in this mlb.com article. The article basically outlines the makeup of the Phillies opening day roster, barring any more unforeseen developments. If Jon Lieber starts the season on the DL, the two open spots in the bullpen will likely be filled by Clay Condrey and Jim Ed Warden. The two bench spots will likely be filled by Karim Garcia and Greg Dobbs, with Chris Coste being the odd man out, mainly due to logistics and his hamstring tweak. It also appears that Jason Jaramillo will stick with the team if Carlos Ruiz isn’t ready for opening day, and that Michael Bourn could stay up with the team for the first few games if Freddy Garcia starts the year on the DL, allowing the Phillies to carry an extra player.

So, are these the right decisions? First, I think keeping Condrey over Segovia might be a mistake. However, if Condrey is going to just be a mop-up guy, then I guess it’s understandable. Segovia is still young and still has some promise, Condrey is your typical AAAA pitcher who is easily replaceable. Warden, because he’s a Rule 5 guy, is a bit of a different case. He’s had some rough outings and some solid outings this spring. Again, my hope is that the Phillies work out a trade with Cleveland where they get to keep Warden and option him to the minors so he can get comfortable before being thrust into the majors. The Phillies should contend for the division from Day 1, they can’t afford to use a 24 man roster and just hide Warden for the season like they did with Fabio Castro last year. As for the outfield, I’d prefer they kept Bourn over Garcia, mainly because I don’t think Garcia is going to sustain any type of success in the majors over the course of the season. Then again, if Aaron Rowand is traded, which has been a rumor basically since the winter meetings, then Bourn will almost assuredly get a spot in the OF. Dobbs has performed well this spring and has almost been the 2007 version of Chris Coste. Hopefully the Phillies can catch lightning in a bottle for the second year in a row.

Also, according to the Inquirer, the Phillies had scouts at the Blue Jays game keeping an eye on RHP Francisco Rosario. Rosario is out of options, which means if he isn’t kept on the Blue Jays 25 man roster, he must clear waivers before being sent to the minors. Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus ranked Rosario as the Blue Jays #5 prospect, saying

The Good: Tommy John survivor thrived in a move to the bullpen at Triple-A and finally reached the majors after a minor-league career that was long in years, but consisted of less than 500 innings. Rosario’s velocity is the best in the system, sitting at 93-95 mph and touching 98. As a reliever, his other primary pitch is a hard slider with good depth.

So, there is some talent there. Rosario, who turned 26 in June, has been slowed down with injuries, and as noted above, Tommy John surgery, hence him being out of options before he’s really made a mark at the big league level. He proved to be fairly unhittable at AAA last season, allowing only 29 hits in 42 innings, while striking out 50 and walking 13. He also kept the ball in the park, allowing only 2 HR, and posted a 50:28 GB to FB ratio. His big league debut wasn’t very good, largely because he allowed 16 walks in only 23 innings, but we can write that off to nerves and adjustment.

Rosario is a guy that can probably step right into the major league bullpen, and might be a better option going forward than a guy like Warden or Condrey, but the question is going to be what will it cost. With so many teams starving for arms, he surely won’t clear waivers, so the Phillies would need to make a deal for him. Stay tuned.

UPDATE ——> Per delewareonline, the Phillies released Karim Garcia. That puts an interesting twist on things, and could clear the way for Bourn as the 5th OF, or could assure Coste of a spot on the roster.

UPDATE 2 —-> The Jim Ed Warden experiment has ended, as he was re-claimed by the Indians today.

As most of you know, the Phillies selected Jim Ed Warden in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 draft, held at the Winter Meetings earlier in December. It should be said right away that for every Johan Santana, there are probably 50 Chris Booker’s taken via the Rule 5 draft. In the baseball economy, a $50,000 dollar gamble is a drop in the bucket, even for the smallest of small market teams. Pat Gillick has a history of using the Rule 5 draft to pluck diamonds from the rough, with the most famous case being the pickpocketing of George Bell from the Phillies when he was with Toronto. Every year, you hear substantial amounts of rumors surrounding the draft, proposing names that could be taken, trades that could be made, and normally, the event fails to live up to the hype. With the changes made to the Collective Bargaining Agreement, prospects who normally would have been eligible this year were given an extra year of protection to their team, and thus, a thin crop of players available. Josh Hamilton, the troubled former Devil Ray alum, made the most headlines, but the Phillies were active, taking Warden and catcher Adam Donachie in the major league phase, then trading Donachie to Baltimore for former Phillies farmhand Alfredo Simon. I’m going to take a look at Warden here, and possibly Simon at a later date.

Looking at history, it should be immediately noted that the odds of Warden sticking all season are less than 50/50, and the odds of him actually being a positive contributor is probably 30/70, at best. This process is a crapshoot, and every once in a while, you strike gold, but more often than not, it’s just another piece of coal. I follow the minors pretty closely, and not just the Phillies system, but I hadn’t ever heard of Warden prior to him being drafted. He was a 6th round pick in 2001 by Cleveland, drafted out of Tennessee Tech University, a member of the Ohio Valley Conference. I don’t have access to his college stats, but since his first year of pro ball was way back in 2001, I think we have enough data to draw some conclusions.

Based on scouting reports, Warden is a tall (6’7), wiry (195 lbs) righty that throws with a sidearm motion. Sidearm and submarine pitchers appear to be making a comeback (ok, not REALLY, but they still exist), but it’s important to realize what comes with a sidearm pitcher. Most guys only thrive against batters from the same side as they throw. Righties (like Chad Bradford) tend to dominate right handed batters while struggling against lefties, and vice versa (see Myers, Mike) so they need to be deployed properly. Warren’s overall minor league stat line is quite extensive, and looks like this:

187G, 371.1 IP, 8.10 H/9, 5.14 BB/9, 8.51 K/9, and 0.87 HR/9

At first glance, he gives up a tick less than 1 hit per 9, walks waaay too many batters, has a solid K rate, and is a tick or two above average in terms of home run suppression. I’m more interested in his recent track record, as he only started 1 game since the beginning of 2004, when he became a reliever exclusively, which is surely the role the Phillies see him playing. So, his 2004-2006 stat line looks like this

146G, 186.1 IP, 7.40 H/9, 4.59 BB/9, 9.04 K/9, and 0.87 HR/9

Ok, we’re getting somewhere now. He allowed about a half a hit and half a walk less per 9, he upped his K rate a tick, and his HR/9 rate was identical. He still walks waaaay too many guys, but his hit rate is tolerable, and his K rate is solid. Thanks to the slice of heaven known as minorleaguesplits, we can take a deeper look at his 2006 performance. If someone knows where I can find minor league splits for 2005, please let me know. So, here is Warden’s 2006, and also the league average for the AA Eastern League, just for comparison’s sake

EL Average: 3.23 BB/9, 7.37 K/9, 0.76 HR/9, .252/.323/.381 allowed

Warden: 4.42 BB/9, 7.17 K/9, 0.46 HR/9, .171/.304/.259 allowed

Ok, so let’s look at it. Warden still walks waaaaay too many guys (you’re picking up on a trend here, right?), his K rate is about league average, home run suppression is better than average, and his OPS allowed was a good deal lower than the league average. Not too shabby, really. But, here is where Warden’s numbers really come alive. As I mentioned above, guys with a “funky delivery” (TM, Wheeler) usually are able to tame hitters from the same side, and Warden is no exception. Look at his 2006 splits v LHB and RHP

vs LHB: 25.0 IP, 6.12 H/9, 6.84 BB/9, 8.28 K/9, 0.72 HR/9, 24:26 GB to FB ratio

vs RHB: 34.0 IP, 4.76 H/9, 2.65 BB/9, 6.35 K/9, 0.26 HR/9, 51:26 GB to FB ratio

I think we’ve found Mr Warden’s niche…..he really can get out right handed batters. Having never seen him throw a single pitch, my guess is that he drops down in his motion, and creates very violent tailing motion in to right handed batters, and because of this, gets a lot of balls in on the hands and generates a lot of weak swings. He doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters, but has a nearly 2:1 GB to FB ratio, which is very impressive. Against lefties, like most sidearmers, he’s more prone to hard hit balls because of the natural tailing motion, this time the ball coming back across the middle of the plate. He probably has a decent changeup, which he throws to lefties, and when he makes his pitch, can generate plenty of swings and misses, but when he gets under the ball, he leaves it up in the zone. Couple that with the tailing motion away from a lefty, and you get a lot more solid contact against.

So what does this mean? If Warden is used strictly as a situational righty, he can probably stick at the major league level. Bring him in to face Miguel Cabrera, but don’t let him face Mike Jacobs. Bring him in to face Ryan Zimmerman, but don’t leave him in to face Nick Johnson. Etc, etc, repeat. Now, does Charlie have the sense to use Warden in the proper spots? That’s left to be seen. If he is used in these spots, he can be successful. Warden will be 26 on opening day and turns 27 in May, so he isn’t really a “prospect”, but this is the way you build a solid bullpen, not by giving out free agent contracts to guys like Joe Borowski and Keith Foulke. The odds of Warren sticking are 50/50, the odds of him succeeding are 30/70, but with the Manuel Factor, probably more like 20/80, but who knows, Gillick may have caught lightning in a bottle here.