Baseball America is rolling out their League Top 20’s, and both Carlos Carrasco and Josh Outman made the list at #6 and #14 respectively in the FSL, while Kyle Kendrick and Mike Costanzo made the Easter League Top 20. Check the list here and here. Kendrick’s inclusion has to be an oversight, as he clearly broke the innings limit that BA places on it’s qualified guys.

Carrasco

Carrasco is a long ways from a finished product, but he does have a pair of major league pitches. He throws a plus fastball that sits at 91-92 mph and touches 95 with good life, as well as a quality changeup. His mechanics are nearly picture-perfect, as he looks like he’s throwing an easy side session while popping 92s and 93s.

Carrasco’s biggest concern is his consistency. When he begins a game with good stuff, he usually leaves hitters helpless. But when he doesn’t, he has yet to show the savvy to win with less than his best. He tries to overthrow, which results in him leaving vulnerable fastballs up in the strike zone.

He also needs to refine his curveball. Carrasco shows some feel for it and occasionally snaps off a plus bender, but he struggles to locate it.

Outman

With Outman, it’s all about control. He struggles at times to control his fastball, which explains why ranked among the minor league leaders with 77 walks in 159 innings. At times he struggles to control his emotions, which explains why he overthrows and is prone to big innings and bad outings.

But there’s also a lot to like about the lefty, who led the league with a 2.45 ERA and earned a promotion to Double-A. Outman’s fastball sits at 92-94 mph and he pairs it with an 84-87 mph slider. He’s working on a changeup that still has a ways to go.

A good athlete, Outman has reworked his mechanics and developed a more conventional delivery since turning pro. He also has added some deception, as he now hides the ball much longer, and his fastball has picked up some life. One manager who saw him in low Class A in 2006 said has made significant strides since last year

Kendrick

Kendrick never had pitched above Class A prior to 2007, but he entered the postseason as the Phillies’ Game Two starter, and his 3.87 ERA ranked second among their starters. He got started down that path in the EL, as he harnessed his command and stopped trying to pitch up in the strike zone with his fastball and down with his slider.

The athletic Kendrick repeats his delivery, pumps his two-seam sinker to the bottom of the zone and spots his harder, low-90s four-seamer down and away. He also has a hard slider that’s more of a groundball pitch than a strikeout offering. His changeup plays up because he locates it well.

“He realized strikeouts are over-rated,” Reading manager P.J. Forbes said. “He’s pitching at the knees and when he misses, he misses down. He made hitters hit his pitch, because his command was that good. To give up just three home runs, playing in our ballpark, that’s all about executing your pitches, and he did.”

Costanzo

Costanzo finished second to Larish with 27 homers despite a horrific start. For the second straight year, he finished with a flourish, hitting .358 with eight home runs in the final month. He earned comparisons to Russell Branyan for his prodigious lefthanded power and erratic play at third base, where he committed 34 errors.

Costanzo evokes Branyan also for his strikeouts (157 in 508 at-bats), and his grooved swing will continue to produce holes that pitchers at advanced levels can exploit. He has the athletic ability to adjust and the raw power to hit homers even without squaring up the ball, but he must show the ability to make more adjustments and lay off pitches he can’t hit.

Defensively, Costanzo has the tools to play third, most notably a plus arm. But he has yet to make the adjustments that would make him an average defender. He lacks consistent footwork, and scouts question his agility and infield actions.

Not surprisingly, I have to disagree with PJ Forbes here. Strikeouts are not overrated, and they are a good indicator of future success. I was mildly surprised that Donald didn’t make the back end of the list on either the SAL or the FSL Top 20, but I guess it’s because BA still doesn’t view him as more than a fringe regular in the majors. So far, our representation looks like this

Joe Savery, #2 NYPL
Dominic Brown, #15 NYPL
Adrian Cardenas, #13 SAL
Carlos Carrasco, #6 FSL
Josh Outman, #14 FSL
Kyle Kendrick, #14 EAS
Mike Costanzo, #19, EAS

In an article Friday (which is an insider/pay article), ESPN writer and former Blue Jays special assistant Keith Law ranked the Phillies farm system 29th out of 30 in baseball. He used the following criteria

• Players who have lost their rookie eligibility don’t count for this exercise.

• Both ability and performance count when looking at individual players, and both ceiling and depth count when looking at systems.

• I’m a strong believer in the “time value of prospects” — the idea that a prospect’s value increases significantly as he gets closer to the big leagues. So an organization like Washington, with most of its best prospects in short-season ball in 2006, scores poorly here, because those prospects are four or five years away from the majors, and the attrition rate on those kids is going to be high.

One other thing to bear in mind is how volatile these rankings are. Matt Garza finished the last season at 50 innings, so he’s a rookie in 2007 by the slimmest of margins; without him, the Twins would rank a few notches lower. By the middle of ’07, a number of these teams will have moved around as players have “graduated” from their farm systems to the big leagues.

The third point is the key point when looking at the Phillies system. We have maybe two legit prospects above High A, in James Happ and Michael Bourn. Our three best prospects, Carlos Carrasco, Kyle Drabek and Adrian Cardenas, are all at High A or lower. Also, the great strength of our system, pitching, was concentrated mainly at Low A this season, with a few guys like Bisenius and Segovia making their way to AA. I follow the minors as a whole fairly closely, but maybe not enough to know the 30 best prospects in every organization, and how they stack up to our top 30. But by Law’s criteria, it’s not surprising to see us ranked that low. He doesn’t just throw it together, he explained his criteria for analysis, and it makes sense. His capsule on the Phillies reads

29. Philadelphia: Thin system which got thinner by the sudden rise of Cole Hamels. The closest solid-average prospect to the majors here is Carlos Carrasco, who spent the year in low-A.

Again, makes sense. Carrasco, if his rise in 2006 is for real (and I think it is), should be a Top 30 in baseball prospect after 2007, and if Drabek and Cardenas perform in full season ball like many expect from top draft picks, our system will jump well up the charts next year. Also consider another year under the belt for Outman, and if he continues to improve at the rate he did in August, he’ll be considered an above average prospect, we could be looking at 4 potential Top 100 guys. Even if Bourn loses his eligibility, which he probably will, our system still looks strong.

I won’t analyze every team in the rankings, but just looking at the 9 ahead of us, Pittsburgh, Oakland, Florida, Washington, Toronto, Seattle, Texas, San Fran and St Louis, I like our depth, especially in pitching, over all of those organizations with the exception of Florida, who have five potential quality big league pitchers in the Low A/High A teams. Pittsburgh has Brad Lincoln and not much else, Oakland doesn’t have a real impact guy other than Daric Barton, and he doesn’t really have a position. Florida I mentioned, Washington has three impact guys in Willems, Marrero, and Ballester, but the former two are in the same position as Cardenas and Drabek, and Ballester has plenty of question marks. Toronto’s best prospect will be ineligible next year (Adam Lind) and they lack little else. Seattle has a few intriguing guys in Morrow, Tillman and Jones, but Jones will lose eligibility as well. Texas had three of the most talked about young pitchers, in Danks, Diamond and Volquez, but they traded Danks, Diamond looks like a bullpen arm, and Volquez was awful in his short big league stint last year. San Fran has the worst system in baseball, in my opinion, and in all likelihood, Lincecum, their best prospect, will lose eligibility this season, as well their second best prospect, Johnathon Sanchez. That leaves only St Louis, and they only really have one bona-fide star in their system, Colby Rasmus, and a few promising guys like John Jay from the 2006 draft.

So really, we could have easily been a few spots higher, and if things progress as they did in 2006, we will be higher in 2007. Our system has two main weaknesses, one being glaring, and that is the lack of position prospects. Michael Bourn would probably be in the 13-16 range in most good farm systems, but he’s a top 5 guy in our system. Outside of him, we can hope and pray Costanzo has really figured it out, and that Cardenas is on the fast track. The Phillies made a slew of good picks in Utley, Howard, Rollins and Burrell, now we need to hope the next crop is somewhere in Batavia or Lakewood. Our second weakness is a lack of an impact prospect at the higher levels. I love James Happ, but I don’t consider him an impact prospect, did Segovia or Bourn. A lot of teams ahead of us have a real good prospect waiting at AA or AAA to get his shot, and that increases their value as a system. We’ll have to evaluate ourselves in that area, and all areas, at this time next season, and I’m sure we’ll be higher in the rankings.

Yesterday I attempted to predict what the BA list would look like. Having seen the hard copy list, I’ll just give you my guess, then the actual.

My guess (BA position)

1. Carrasco (1st)
2. Drabek (2nd)
3. Cardenas (3rd)
4. Bourn (7th)
5. Outman (6th)
6. Golson (10th)
7. Happ (8th)
8. Garcia (4th)
9. Sanchez (UR)
10. Maloney (9th)

They ranked Mathieson 5th, I wasn’t sure they’d rank him since he will be 23 and would miss an entire year. All in all, I didn’t do too badly.

It’s that time of the year where every site is churning out their top 10 prospect lists, so I figured I’d make my first “real” post my top 10, and also give predictions for their respective 2007’s. So, without further delay, here’s my list.

1. Carlos Carrasco, RHP. Carrasco had his breakout season in 2006, dominating the Low A Sally League at age 19. His peripheral stats were largely outstanding; 5.82 H/9, 3.67 BB/9, 8.98 K/9 and 0.34 HR/9. The only yellow flag (not serious enough for red) is his walk rate. Various scouting reports have said that his secondary pitches come and go, which is not that uncommon for a 19 year old. Carrasco has fluid, easy mechanics which bode well for his future health. Possibly the most impressive thing he has going for him is feel for his changeup. Changeup control is normally one of the last things a pitcher masters, but Carlos seems to have that down, he just needs to be consistent with his curve. After a tough 2005, which saw him bounce between Lakewood and Batavia, he opened just about everyone’s eyes. My guess is the Phillies will be cautious with him, since he only has one season of pro ball under his belt. He’ll more than likely start at Clearwater, and could possibly move to Reading by mid summer if he gets off to a fast start. Prediction: 163 IP, 7.50 H/9, 3.35 BB/9, 9.50 K/9, 0.65 HR
2. Adrian Cardenas, SS/2B. I’ll state this now to get it out of the way…..I might just be Adrian Cardenas fan #1, so keep that in mind as you read my writeup. The Phillies have a long history of drafting “toolsy” guys who can’t hit, with the hope of teaching them how to actually play baseball later. This method seems to fail much more than succeed, yet the Phillies (and other teams), continue to go this route in the draft. Think of it like playing a slot machine. You know the odds are bad, but it’s so much fun! Well, Cardenas bucks this trend, and I couldn’t be happier. Cardenas won the Baseball America High School POY this year, and he didn’t stop upon his arrival in pro ball. He put up a solid .318/.384/.442 line in the GCL, facing mostly high school pitchers. While Cardenas doesn’t fit the “toolsy” background of your typical Phillies draft pick, he has solid baseball skills, with an advanced approach to hitting and good overall baseball instincts. He played shortstop in high school, and might stay there for a few seasons, but most think he’ll end up at 2B. If he continues to hit as he climbs the organizational ladder, he’ll be above average offensively, which should offset his defensive limitations. Prediction: (A-), .312/.415/.475, 13 HR, 25 2B, 10 SB
3. James Happ, LHP. Many prospect ranking folks have different philosophies when it comes to weighing numbers and tools. Some go 50/50, some 70/30 or some combo in between. Happ is an interesting case, and maybe I’m being too kind, but maybe not. Happ is a tall, lanky pitcher (6’5, 205 lbs) but doesn’t throw very hard, with his fastball topping out around 91, and consistently hitting 88-90. What he lacks in power, he makes up for in command, which is evident in his 2.80 BB/9 rate between A+ and AA in 2006. Though he lacks “dominant stuff”, Happ was able to generate quite a few swings and misses, 9.22 K/9, over both levels, and even more importantly, he kept the ball in the park, allowing only 11 HR in 154.2 IP, including only 2 in 74.2 IP at double A Reading. While Happ doesn’t offer much in the way of projectability, as he’s already 23 and doesn’t look to add more velocity, he does have a good feel for pitching. Normally AA is the biggest test for a pitcher, and Happ passed his first test, posting better numbers across the board at Reading than in Clearwater. You hate comparing a non-flaming throwing lefty to Tom Glavine, but if Happ can mantain his command as he climbs the ladder, he can become a reliable middle of the rotation starter. Prediction: (AAA), 105 IP, 2.90 ERA, 3.15 BB/9, 9.25 K/9, 0.45 HR/9 (MLB), 50 IP, 4.15 ERA, 3.65 BB/9, 7.50 K/9, 1.15 HR/9
4. Kyle Drabek, RHP. Consider Mr Drabek the anti-JA Happ. Much was made of Drabek’s off the field issues leading up to the draft, but few doubted his ability on the field. Drabek dominated on the mound in high school, pitching in the baseball hotbed of Texas, and led his team, The Woodlands, to numerous championships, both with his arm and bat. Drabek’s number one asset might just be his athletic ability, as he was one of the top rated shortstops in the 2006 draft, as well as the second rated high school arm behind Clayton Kershaw. He dropped to the Phillies because of the aforementioned off the field concerns, but the Phillies felt he was worth the risk. His pro debut was less than ideal, but has been attributed to things ranging from immaturity to a heavy high school workload. Drabek went to the Florida Instructional League with fellow draftee Dan Brauer, and reports were that he responded well to the regiments involved with playing professional baseball. Prediction: (SS) 45.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 4.15 BB/9, 10.50 K/9, 1.00 HR/9, (A-) 35.0 IP, 3.75 ERA, 4.00 BB/9, 7.75 K/9, 1.25 HR/9
5. D’Arby Myers, OF. Myers fits the mold of the toolsy guys the Phillies love, and as you can probably figure out from my previous comments, I was skeptical upon his selection, as I am with all outfielders like him. In the 4th round, I felt like it was too early to start “buying lottery tickets”, but I think the Phillies might have picked a winner here. Myers played the entire GCL season at the age of 17, and had arguably the most impressive debut of any Phillies draftee, putting up a line of .313/.353/.430. That may not seem significant, but for a guy with very raw baseball skills, at a very young age, it’s quite an accomplishment. Myers oozes potential and projection, with plus speed, potential for plus power, and a good arm. He still needs to “learn” the more advanced baseball skills like route running and pitch selection at the plate, but his debut showed that he might be further along in this process than most toolsy guys. Myers did a good job of keeping the ball out of the air and using his speed to his advantage. He was 11/15 in SB’s, which again, is quite solid for a guy just learning how to play the game. The Phillies could challenge him by assigning him to Lakewood, meaning he’d be one of the youngest players in the league, but he might start at short season Williamsport. I’ll do two predictions for him, one assuming he starts at Williamsport, one assuming he starts at Lakewood. Prediction 1: (SS), .325/.375/.450, (A-) .280/.340/.400 Prediction 2: (A-) .270/.335/.425, 30 SB
6. Josh Outman, LHP. Outman, in addition to having one of the best baseball names possible, looks like one of the Phillies best picks in the 2005 draft. His 2005 debut was good, if not above average, and his 2006 saw an improvement in just about every peripheral category. His walk rate still needs some work (4.35 BB/9), but his K rate (9.33/9) and HR rate (0.29/9) were both well above average. Outman is slightly old for low A, but the Phillies apparently wanted to keep the core of the team together as they made a playoff push, which means Outman is a candidate for a double jump to Reading in 2007. He possesses above average velocity for a lefty, hitting 94 and working around 91-92 consistently. His changeup lags behind his fastball and slider, but is improving. Outman’s overall line, 155.2 IP, 6.89 H/9, 4.35 BB/9, 9.33 K/9, 0.29 HR/9 is impressive, but his line from July-September is even more impressive, at 72.2 IP, 5.73 H/9, 3.61 BB/9, 9.97 K/9, 0.25 HR/9. If he continues to improve his control, he will quickly move up the prospect lists. The Phillies should challenge him with a double jump since he is a college pitcher and is 22. Prediction: (AA), 163 IP, 3.00 ERA, 7.45 H/9, 3.75 BB/9, 8.85 K/9, 0.65 HR/9
7. Edgar Garcia, RHP. Garcia was highly touted when he signed in 2004 as a 16 year old out of the Dominican Republic. At 6’2, 190lbs, he has room for projection, and already throws in the low 90’s. While he was at the forefront of prospect chatter in 2004 and 2005, he seemed to fade out of the limelight a bit in 2006, yet he continued to produce on the field, putting up a line of 66.1 IP, 8.41 H/9, 1.36 BB/9, 6.24 K/9, 0.68 HR/9 at Batavia. Many people point to his low K rate as a red flag, but in this writer’s opinion, that criticism is a tad overrated. Garcia has outstanding control and feel for his changeup, which as previously stated, is rare for young, raw pitchers. Garcia allowed only 18 extra base hits (13 2B and 5 HR) in 66.1 IP, good for a .369 slugging against. He also induced 87 groundballs, as opposed to 69 flyballs, and also induced 20 pop ups. This data would lead you to believe guys aren’t getting good swings against Garcia. He was equally tough on lefties and righties, and allowed only 1 HR to lefthanded batters, which speaks to the strength of his changeup. Garcia is underrated on other prospect lists, in my opinion, and has the potential to put up a solid season in the Sally League in 2007 at age 19. Prediction: (A-), 150 IP, 2.95 ERA, 1.90 BB/9, 7.00 K/9, 0.85 HR/9
8. Scott Mathieson, RHP. Mathieson underwent Tommy John surgery in November, which is one of the main reasons he slid down the list a bit. If 100% healthy, he’d probably rank 5th on my list. Mathieson throws a mid 90’s fastball, but it lacks movement, which means he needs to command it in the zone to be effective. His changeup is average, and he’s worked with both a curve and a slider, eventually settling on a slider. While he was able to dominate minor league hitters with his offspeed stuff, he didn’t experience the same success at the big league level. Throughout his minor league career, his control improved at every level, but when he jumped to Philly, he saw all of his peripherals take a hit, which isn’t a surprise. He will miss all of 2007 and could make it back in time for the Arizona Fall League next year, but more likely won’t pitch until spring training 2008. Mathieson is still a prospect, but he will remain outside of the top 5 until we see what he looks like post surgery. If he adds velocity, like many TJ survivors do, he could consistently throw 95-96 and hit 98. If that’s the case, he profiles as a middle of the rotation starter or potential closer. He will be 23 this year in spring training, which puts him at 24 when he is recovered from surgery, and he’ll more than likely start in AAA and be the first callup, or he’ll compete for a bullpen spot in spring training. Prediction: Won’t pitch in 2007.
9. Jason Jaramillo, C. I’ll qualify this selection, and the #10 selection, by saying that the difference between my 9th and 13th ranked prospects on this list is real small, and most guys are interchangeable. Jaramillo’s offense has been suspect, and he struggled at AA Reading in 2006, putting up a .708 OPS in his age 23 season. Jaramillo raked in college, with a .900+ OPS, but has struggled since reaching full season ball in 2005. While his bat won’t get him to the big leagues, his glove and presence behind the plate probably will. Scouts rave about his game calling ability and his arm strength, and that’s where his future lies. Catcher is not a notoriously big offensive position, but the Phillies also appear to have little patience when it comes to rookie catchers, though the organization does appear to be high on Jaramillo’s future. As a starting catcher, he probably won’t hit more than .250/.330/.450, but if he’s hit 8th in the lineup and his strong defensive presence carries over, he’ll have a fine major league career. Prediction: (AAA), .260/.350/.445, 13 HR
10. Andrew Carpenter, RHP. Carpenter flew under the radar after being drafted, as his debut was delayed until the end of the summer, possibly because of his heavy college workload. Carpenter doesn’t possess outstanding stuff, with just a 91-94 mph fastball, average change and average curve, but he has superb command (1.53 BB/9 in college) and his K rate is good enough (7.57 in college), while his home run suppression looks just fine, at 0.31 HR/9 in college. He only pitched 11.2 innings at Batavia, so it’s tough to draw any real conclusions there, but he allowed only 1 ER in his 3 short starts. As a 3 year senior, Carpenter figures to move quickly through the system. He’ll likely start at Lakewood, but could possibly start at Clearwater and reach Reading by mid summer. For my prediction, I’ll assume he starts at Lakewood. Prediction: (A-), 65.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 3.10 BB/9, 7.50 K/9, 0.35 HR/9, (AA), 75.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 2.90 BB/9, 7.25 K/9, 0.85 HR/9

11-15, brief blurbs: