All posts by Matt Winkelman

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

Checking in on Severino Gonzalez

Ever since his breakout last year, Severino Gonzalez has been a source of much discussion. There have debates not just about his ceiling and profile, but also about how that profile fits into the value scale of a major league team. Last night Severino made his 6th start of the season, and while it is too early to write any conclusions in stone, we can start to look at emerging trends.

So lets start with the overall stats:

G IP ERA FIP BABIP HR/9 BB/9 K/9
2013 25 103.2 2 2.23 0.31 0.43 1.91 10.33
2014 6 34.1 3.67 3.23 0.311 0.52 1.83 6.82

Continue reading Checking in on Severino Gonzalez

10 Names For Draft Day

In past drafts there are definite tiers of players, often headlined by a true first overall pick who projects as a can’t miss beast.  The 2014 MLB draft offers a little less of that flash at the top, but what it does have is incredible depth, especially among prep pitchers.  I am going to kick off our draft coverage by looking at 10 guys who appear near the top of many boards.  Given the volatility of the draft this year, these names could shuffle many times over the next month plus.

Carlos Rodon (NC State):  Rodon came into the Year as the near consensus 1:1 pick.  He has been very inconsistent so far this year.  The fastball has been anywhere from fringe average to plus and the command has been all over the place.  The slider is still an incredibly nasty pitch, and the changeup has flashed potential.  When he is not on he looks more like a 2/3, but when it is all clicking he is a no-shit monster on the mound. Likely Outcome: Top 3 Continue reading 10 Names For Draft Day

Phillies Making the Most of Bad Injury Situation

It is no secret that the Phillies system came into the 2014 season with a long list of injuries.  Coming out of spring training the system was relatively thin, with normal depth players forced into starting roles for many affiliates.  Since the start of the season, the injuries have gotten worse, not better.  The Phillies have made the most of this situation and been aggressive in pressing young players into challenging roles while they work to get the regulars healthy.

Catchers:

The Phillies entered the year with two catching injuries in Andrew Knapp and Chace Numata.  The extended spring roster was composed of 5 catchers who had never played above the GCL.  When Cameron Rupp went down the Phillies bumped Sebastian Valle to AAA and Chad Carman to AA.  Rather than get an org filler catcher to fill the gap, the Phillies reached down to Extended Spring Training and brought up a pair of teenagers in top catching prospect Deivi Grullon and 19 year old Jesus Posso.  Both were above their head, but in the safety of the Clearwater complex. Continue reading Phillies Making the Most of Bad Injury Situation

Joseph and Dugan to the Reading DL, Moore & Lino Promoted

As per Mike Drago of the Reading Eagle

Continue reading Joseph and Dugan to the Reading DL, Moore & Lino Promoted

Jesse Biddle #2 On BA Hot Sheet

Jesse Biddle coming off a pair of dominant starts was #2 on Baseball America’s Hot Sheet.  Over the two starts Biddle went 14 IP and gave up 4 hits, 1 earned run, 2 walks, to go with 21 strikeouts.  If Biddle puts up another start or two like this Biddle could be in Lehigh Valley soon.  Biddle was blocked from the #1 spot by Ranger’s masher Joey Gallo‘s .409/.500/1.091 line (yes that is a 1.091 SLG).  Gallo has been on fire this year so far.  Coming in at #4 on the list was Red Sox LHP Brian Johnson who went 6 IP 0 H 0 ER o BB 5 Ks for hi-A Salem.  Johnson was selected with the Phillies pick forfeited for signing Jonathan Papelbon, he is 23 and in hi-A though.

Full Hot Sheet is here – http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-april-25/

Bonus: A scout’s take on Maikel Franco so far this year

Some Stat Lines That Intrigue Me

All of the stat lines are still very small sample size, but here are some stat lines that are intriguing me for a variety of reasons.  These stats may not continue, they may improve or decline, but nevertheless they are things that are showing me something now.

Tommy Joseph: 8.6% BB% 12.1% K% .220 ISO

Joseph is a guy that had a ton of helium last spring coming off of Spring Training.  He started slowly and then injuries ended his year.  Joseph’s line so far is a little bit pedestrian .240/.328/.460, due to a .220 BABIP.  Joseph’s hit tool is never going to be an asset, but if he can keep the srikeout rate under 20% and show the plus power, he is a big leaguer.  The reports on the defense are a bit cooler, he still has trouble with recieving, but the arm strenght is still there.  I am cautiously optimistic on Joseph.  I want to see more from him, but a full year in Reading will be good for him. Continue reading Some Stat Lines That Intrigue Me

The Reading Mirage: Pitching Overview

Yesterday we took a look at the hitting trends as hitters progress through Reading on the way to AAA.  The goal today is to give a much shorter overview for pitching stats.  There are more gaps in this group of players, and it is further muddied by the combination of starters and reliever.  Additionally the group as a whole is fairly week due to trades and burnout before reaching AA.

For this study we followed Jon Pettibone, Kyle Kendrick, Trevor May, Vance Worley, Phillippe Aumont, Jake Diekman, Justin De Fratus, J. A. Happ, Michael Stutes, B.J. Rosenberg, Tyler Cloyd, Austin Hyatt, Jesse Biddle, Carlos Carrasco, JC Ramirez, David Buchanan, Adam Morgan, and Joe Savery.  For the stats we are looking mostly at fielding independent statistics, so BB/9, K/9, HR/9, and FIP.  Continue reading The Reading Mirage: Pitching Overview

The Reading Mirage: Hitting Overview

Every year a prospect emerges in Reading and puts up huge numbers that excite Phillies fans.  Sometimes those players sustain their surprise, but more times that not, the player fades off to mediocrity.  For this study I took 18 players that played for Reading in the past 6 years.  Those players were Cameron Rupp, Darin Ruf, Derrick Mitchell, Leandro Castro, Cody Asche, Matt Rizzotti, Jim Murphy, Mike Costanzo, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez, Sebastian Valle, Maikel Franco, Tuffy Gosewisch, Michael Taylor, Steve Susdorf, and Domonic Brown.  All players were chosen for playing both Clearwater and Reading, and in all but two cases in Lehigh Valley.  The sample sizes across the levels are not equal and individual stats may not have stabilized enough to make individual declarations at this time.

In terms of stats, I started with the triple flash lines (batting average, on base percentage, and slugging) and their derivatives (OPS, ISO, BABIP).  Then I looked at defense independent statistics, strikeout percent, walk percent, and home runs per plate appearance.  Lastly in cases where batted ball data existed (seasons 2011 or later), that data has been included.  Additionally the age of each prospect was recorded.  In cases of multiple seasons at a level, I first looked for the larger sample size, if not, then the season preceding the promotion to Lehigh Valley.  In terms of aggregate numbers I am looking at pure unweighted averages of rate stats and percentages, this is an effort to weight each player equally. Continue reading The Reading Mirage: Hitting Overview

Weekend Spotlight: 4/19 Reading v Harrisburg

The goal is to each weekend profile the most interesting matchup and give you a preview of the Phillies prospects involved and a glimpse at the opposing players. 

In a weekend devoid of premium matchups, Saturday’s matchup in Reading is probably the most interesting.  The Fighins are off to a hot start with an 8-4 record to begin the season.  On Friday night Jesse Biddle will take the mound for Reading.

Pitching Matchup:

Taking the mound for Reading will be RHP Severino Gonzalez.  Gonzalez is coming off what might be his worst start over the with 5IP 6H 3ER 3BB 4Ks against Richmond on the 18th.  There is a lot of mixed opinion on Severino, and still a very limited data set, so every view is worth a lot.  On the mound Severino will bring a 4-5 pitch mix of average pitches and a fastball that will sit 88-91 and touch 92.  He normally will display plus command a good feel for pitching on the mound that helps the arsenal play up. Continue reading Weekend Spotlight: 4/19 Reading v Harrisburg

Monday Roster Shuffle

Normally roster moves don’t make their own posts unless it is a big promotion, but today was a bunch of shuffling with impact.

Lehigh Valley:
Added: Sebastian Valle (REA), Justin De Fratus (PHI), Tyson Gillies (CLW), Brad Lincoln (PHI)
Lost: Mike Nesseth (REA), Cameron Rupp (DL), Andres Blanco (DL), Justin Friend (Released), Luis Garcia (PHI)

Reading:
Added: Chad Carman (CLW), Mike Nesseth (LHV)
Lost: Aaron Altherr (CLW), Sebastian Valle (LHV)

Clearwater:
Added: Aaron Altherr (REA – DL), Deivi Grullon (EST)
Lost: Chad Carman (REA), Tyson Gillies (LHV) Continue reading Monday Roster Shuffle