Of all the pieces in this series this is the least about looking back at the individual players and the most about looking at the community and the discussion generated here. I think the community’s list is on of the best in recent years and shows the growing knowledge of Philadelphia prospect watchers as a whole. Here is your 2013 Reader Top 30 prospects.
This is a retrospective back on the Top 30 prospects list I wrote before the start of the season. My opinion is that anyone who puts their opinion out there should be accountable for that opinion, in this case rather than just ask whether I was right or wrong, but more why was it right or wrong. The goal is to explore things in the development of a prospect that can point to growth or regression. Additionally just because a prospect fails to live up to or exceeds expectations does it mean the base analysis was wrong when it was written.
The first thing I see when looking at this list is that all 5 of these guys did not step forward. Four out of the five dealt with some sort of physical set back (injury/illness). In reality it comes down to you just can’t predict a lot of things and sometimes it all breaks the wrong way. This certainly does not excuse us from our duty of making good analysis, but we do need to acknowledge things out of our control. As always the original list is here https://phuturephillies.com/top-30-prospects/mattwinks-top-30/2013-top-30/.
5. Ethan Martin
Martin has a ton of upside if he can prove his new control is real, though the lack of a good changeup is concerning. This ranking reflects the raw stuff that Martin has; a plus plus fastball, a plus breaking ball, and another average breaking ball to pair with what profiles as an average changeup. I believe the new command is legitimate and even if the changeup does not develop Martin as at least a dominant reliever. Continue reading Top 30 Accountability: 1-5
This is a retrospective back on the Top 30 prospects list I wrote before the start of the season. My opinion is that anyone who puts their opinion out there should be accountable for that opinion, in this case rather than just ask whether I was right or wrong, but more why was it right or wrong. The goal is to explore things in the development of a prospect that can point to growth or regression. Additionally just because a prospect fails to live up to or exceeds expectations does it mean the base analysis was wrong when it was written.
When I wrote up the Top 30 I had Biddle and Morgan in their own tier followed by Quinn and then a bunch of names you could have argued in any order. In that scenario I find the ranking to not provide a lot of information, because at the time the difference between 3 and 7, and as far down to Tocci at 10 was miniscule. It is the problem with doing a numerical ranking is that you create an artificial hierarchy where none exists. So the emphasis is much more on the reports and analysis than the order in which the names appear. As always the initial list can be found here https://phuturephillies.com/top-30-prospects/mattwinks-top-30/2013-top-30/
10. Shane Watson
Watson is very polished with two plus pitches and an average changeup under development. He should easily handle a full season assignment and could move quickly through the system. Watson’s limited debut due to diabetes should be behind him and he impressed in instructs. With a good year Watson could be near the top of this list. Continue reading Top 30 Accountability: 6 – 10
This is a retrospective back on the Top 30 prospects list I wrote before the start of the season. My opinion is that anyone who puts their opinion out there should be accountable for that opinion, in this case rather than just ask whether I was right or wrong, but more why was it right or wrong. The goal is to explore things in the development of a prospect that can point to growth or regression. Additionally just because a prospect fails to live up to or exceeds expectations does it mean the base analysis was wrong when it was written.
The 11-15 range was filled with disappointment. There are a lot of high risk high rewards guys present and it did not go out well. Additionally I was flat out wrong in my evaluation in some places. As always the full list can be found here https://phuturephillies.com/top-30-prospects/mattwinks-top-30/2013-top-30/.
15. Dylan Cozens
Cozens is a freak athlete with plenty of raw power. He has a stiff long swing that will likely have plenty of miss in it, but he has some semblance of an approach. In the field he can stick in right with his plus arm for now but as a giant already it is hard to project him long term in the outfield. Even if he has to move to first the bat will play. He is likely destined for Extended Spring Training and Williamsport but could find a way to Lakewood at some point. Continue reading Top 30 Accountability : 11-15
This is a retrospective back on the Top 30 prospects list I wrote before the start of the season. My opinion is that anyone who puts their opinion out there should be accountable for that opinion, in this case rather than just ask whether I was right or wrong, but more why was it right or wrong. The goal is to explore things in the development of a prospect that can point to growth or regression. Additionally just because a prospect fails to live up to or exceeds expectations does it mean the base analysis was wrong when it was written.
Continuing on with the next group of 5 players including a 2 relievers, 2 players who had disappointing years, and a player with decent potential in the low minors. As always the original list lives here https://phuturephillies.com/top-30-prospects/mattwinks-top-30/2013-top-30/
20. Sebastian Valle
Valle has no real approach and just sells out for power at the plate. This leads to a high strikeout rate with a really low walk rate. At the major league level that approach will be completely exposed. Behind the plate Valle is a very good receiver, but he does not have a good release making him below average against the run game despite a plus arm. Overall Valle will need to improve greatly to have a chance as anything more than a marginal back up. Continue reading Top 30 Accountability: 16-20
This is a retrospective back on the Top 30 prospects list I wrote before the start of the season. My opinion is that anyone who puts their opinion out there should be accountable for that opinion, in this case rather than just ask whether I was right or wrong, but more why was it right or wrong. The goal is to explore things in the development of a prospect that can point to growth or regression. Additionally just because a prospect fails to live up to or exceeds expectations does it mean the base analysis was wrong when it was written.
Continuing on with the next group of 5 players including a pair of HS SSs turned third basemen who are trending in the opposite directions. As always the original list lives here https://phuturephillies.com/top-30-prospects/mattwinks-top-30/2013-top-30/
25. Tyson Gillies
So the good: Gillies is a great defensive center fielder with good range and a plus arm. Gillies makes good contact and currently has good plate discipline. The bad: Gillies cannot stay healthy and there seems to be a consistent hamstring problem. Unless he develops better game power (and a swing to pair with it) his on base and running ability (if it comes back) will be severely reduced. Overall it is a package with some upside, but it is limited by the large injury risk. Continue reading Top 30 Accountability: 21-25
I started this series with players who didn’t make the list, and now will be stepping through the list 5 at a time. The list itself can be found here https://phuturephillies.com/top-30-prospects/mattwinks-top-30/2013-top-30/
30. Gabriel Lino
This is a tools pick, it came down to three catchers for the last spot in Lino, Grullon, and Rupp. I aimed high on the projection because he is a pure boom or bust player. Lino has huge holes on offense and defense that are not allowing his monster tools to appear in game action. Lino is still very young so there is time, but there is a lot that can go wrong here. Continue reading Top 30 Accountability: 26-30
Part of learning to be a better evaluator and writer is examining your past work for mistakes and successes. Now that the minor league season is essentially over, I am going to be working back through the Top 30 published at the beginning of the season. The goal is to relook at guys in the system and how they have developed as well as look for evaluation trends and keys to things that caused misses along the way, as well as another opportunity to bring up 30+ individual players for discussion. The original post is here https://phuturephillies.com/top-30-prospects/mattwinks-top-30/2013-top-30/
The first group is to focus on the players that didn’t make the list but had enough intrigue to warrant a write up. Not all of the players were big time prospects and few are now, I have also only selected players who provide room for commentary.
Cameron Rupp – He just didn’t have enough upside for me, he just missed the list because of the safety, but he isn’t more than a backup. Continue reading Top 30 Accountability: Off the list
A big part of the development cycle is winter and fall ball. This post will track all players (who project to have prospect eligibility) participating in various offseason leagues as the information becomes available.
Major Leagues:
Mauricio Robles, Cameron Rupp, JC Ramirez, Cesar Hernandez
Florida Instructional League:
JP Crawford, Shane Watson, Larry Green Jr, Delvi Fransisco, Carlos Tocci, Kevin Walter, Zach Cooper, Mitch Walding (rehab) Continue reading Fall/Winter Assignments
The final number is 3 years 12 million with a 4th year vesting/team option. Negotiations hit a snag with regards to injury concerns. Gonzalez has been placed on the 40 man roster and John Lannan has been moved to the 60 day DL to make room.
Phuture Phillies 