All posts by Matt Winkelman

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

Phillies Trade Rasmussen and Kratz for Brad Lincoln

Transactions

Yesterday the Phillies made a small little trade that could end up being a small victory or it could be a net zero.

The Phillies shipped out Erik Kratz, who is a below average back up catcher with some pop and a good throwing arm, along with Rob Rasmussen (acquired for Michael Young) in exchange for Blue Jays reliever Brad Lincoln.

Rasmussen who I wrote about recently shows 4 averagish pitches from a really small frame.  He has an outside shot at being a #5 starter, but his most likely role is middle reliever or LOOGY. Continue reading Phillies Trade Rasmussen and Kratz for Brad Lincoln →

Something to Dream On: The 2017 Phillies

Other Stuff

Last week I started exploring the future of the Phillies with a luck at what could be in 2016.  The series continues with 2017 as some more money comes off the books and a couple more guys arrive in the majors. Just as before here are the starting assumptions.

  • The Phillies are not trading away any players
  • Minor Leaguers will progress as “normal” and will not have any career ending injuries.
  • The Phillies will be rational about resigning players
  • I am not accounting for FA acquisitions and Draft Picks, however I will have a salary total that can be used to dream on FA acquisitions that could fill in the holes
  • Arbitration figures for salaries are taken from similar players

Catcher: Tommy Joseph and Andrew Knapp

This isn’t going to be a great defensive pair but it should provide plenty of offense.  In this scenario Knapp is likely in a back-up position given his inexperience, but he could overtake Joseph depending on how his hitting progresses.  More than anything else this pair should be really cheap. Salary: $1 million Continue reading Something to Dream On: The 2017 Phillies →

Phillies Add Joseph, Dugan, Altherr, and Rasmussen to 40 Man Roster

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Not a lot of in depth analysis here, the three position players were must-adds due to their upside.  The Phillies acquired Rasmussen for Michael Young and saw enough to add him.  Rasmussen in a starting role is more of a #5 starter, but out of the bullpen the stuff could tick up more.

More on the Rule V and who could be in danger when we get closer to the Winter Meetings.

Something to Dream On: The 2016 Phillies

Other Stuff

For Phillies fans this offseason really has been a continuation of what has been a rough 2 years.  The amount of hope left dwindles by the day, and the confidence that tomorrow will be better than today.  If you have hope, the year to target is 2016, it is when the contracts start to fall off and the first wave of prospects starts to arrive.  On the suggestions of John Stolnis (@FelskeFiles) and Corinne (@Ut26), rather than just start with 2016 or look at the end result in 2018, this is the first part of a step by step transition of a rebuilding team.

In working on this activity here are the starting assumptions:

  • The Phillies are not trading away any players
  • Minor Leaguers will progress as “normal” and will not have any career ending injuries.
  • The Phillies will be rational about resigning players
  • I am not accounting for FA acquisitions and Draft Picks, however I will have a salary total that can be used to dream on FA acquisitions that could fill in the holes
  • Arbitration figures for salaries are taken from similar players

Obviously these are a lot of assumptions that will not hold true because prospects are unpredictable, draft picks especially the 2014 #7 overall pick could have large influences, and the front office will not be static for the next two years. Continue reading Something to Dream On: The 2016 Phillies →

Scout.com Phillies Top 20

Prospect Rankings

Kiley McDaniel is the Minor League analyst for scout.com and he has just released his Phillies Top Prospect list.  Given that is usually behind a paywall that many of us venture beyond it hasn’t always been a well covered list.  But this year the list is free http://sbb.scout.com/2/1348329.html and so we will take a look at it.  A note he has left off players with significant MLB or professional time like MAG, Cesar, Asche, De Fratus, Pettibone, Aumont, Savery, and Galvis

  1. Maikel Franco
  2. J.P. Crawford
  3. Jesse Biddle
  4. Ethan Martin
  5. Aaron Altherr Continue reading Scout.com Phillies Top 20 →

40 Man Roster Decisions – Part 3 – Position Players

Rule 5 Draft

So we reach the end of our journey through the 40 man roster decisions, with position players.  If you missed it I already discussed the players on the roster and the pitchers eligible.  The position prospect list is actually quite small due to the Pence trade (Jonathan Singleton), Kyrell Hudson and Gauntlett Eldemire no longer being with the org, and Cameron Rupp‘s recent addition to the roster.

Tommy Joseph – C – Acquired from San Francisco for Hunter Pence

A year ago Joseph was the centerpiece of Hunter Pence’s trade to the Giants and a no doubt Top 10 prospect in the system.  In the spring he looked like the catcher of the future showing huge raw power and an electric arm behind the plate.  Joseph’s season got off to a rough start in AAA, but it ended up being only a 20 game sample size as his third concussion essentially ended his season.  There are some doubts whether Joseph will be able to catch longer term, but he is back behind the plate in the Dominican right now with an eye on a comeback.  If he can’t stay behind the plate he is not a prospect, but if he can stay behind the plate he has value at very least as a backup and that upside makes him a must protect this offseason. MPW: Keep Phillies: Keep Continue reading 40 Man Roster Decisions – Part 3 – Position Players →

Jiwan James’s Agent Spotlights Minor League Free Agency and Minor League Life

Other Stuff

In an article today on Baseball Prospectus Jiwan James’s Agent Joshua Kusnick laid out the offseason for a minor league free agent from his agent’s perspective.  He uses James’s offseason as his example, and it forms a really interesting narrative and rare look behind the curtain at minor league life.  The article is free so you have no excuse not to read it.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22236

Drafts Revisted: 2007

2007 Draft

I have debated writing draft retrospectives for a while but the question has always been, where do I begin?  I have debated going all the way back to the Jimmy Rollins draft but those drafts were incredibly thin and become rather boring after a while.  Seeing the 2007 draft as the first draft James covered for this site it seemed as good a place as any to start.  Obviously I am not going to touch on every player here, but there are some highlights at low lights a plenty in the 2007 draft.

Round 1 Pick 19 – Joe Savery – LHP – Rice

Savery at the time was the ultimate boom bust pick.  In his freshman year Savery was the top freshman in the country and one of the most dominating pitchers in college baseball.  His next two seasons were marred by injuries but when on he flashed at least three plus pitches on a workhorse frame.  The problem is the velocity never came back and the secondary stuff regressed.  By the time Savery reached AAA he was little more than a minor league innings eater.  Savery then spent a year trying to hit, before he returned the mound with renewed velocity and a usable slider.  Since then Savery has started to salvage and put together a career as a fringe LH reliever.  2014 Outlook: LHV and Philly Continue reading Drafts Revisted: 2007 →

40 Man Roster Decisions – Part 2 – Pitchers

Other Stuff

After discussing who is on the roster, it is now time to discuss who might be on the roster going forward.  Pitching is a lot easier for a team to stash on a roster than it is to stash position players because bullpen arms can be regulated and coached without the need for constant in game work.  For the most part teams are looking for players who can provide a solid fastball and command out of the bullpen.  The Phillies have a couple of player who may be able to fill those roles, but more interestingly they have a couple of players who could provide rotation depth to the rate team.

Seth Rosin – RHP – Acquired from San Francisco for Hunter Pence

Seth Rosin is a big pitcher, and he generates good downward plane on his pitches.  Out of the rotation Rosin will show a plus fastball, a slider with good potnetial, and an average changeup.  Rosin will pound the zone with all of his pitches and has improved his walk rate every year.  Rosin wore down towards the end of the year as he passed his previous high in innings.  If he sticks in the rotation Rosin profiles as a back of the rotation starter, however if put back in the bullpen he could be an asset in 2014.  This potential bullpen use could make him attractive to a team in the Rule V draft.  MW: Protect Phillies: No Add Continue reading 40 Man Roster Decisions – Part 2 – Pitchers →

40 Man Roster Decisions – Part 1 – On the Roster

Aumont, Phillippe, Collier, Zach, Gillies, Tyson, Phillies Chatter, Savery, Joe, Valle, Sebastian

One of the first big moves of the offseason is the reshuffling of the 40 man roster.  The Phillies have already made their first round of cuts but they still have some work remaining to get down to enough to protect newly Rule V eligible players as well as sign free agents.  We are going to kick off this series by looking at the players already on the 40 man roster who may be on the bubble.  I have deemed players with established major league roles as safe and won’t discuss them here (this includes De Fratus, Diekman, Pettibone, Asche, Galvis, and Hernandez), I am including players who either are on the fringes or are pure minor leaguers.  I am going to give my opinion on what the Phillies should and give my guess at what they will do.

When it comes to players already on the 40-man roster, removing them subjects them to the waiver process.  This gives each team the option of claiming them, if claimed a player most only then be placed on his team’s 40 man roster.  If you are looking to keep some of these players in the org the big thing to look at is number of options years left.  A player with multiple options and some talent is likely to get claimed purely for a look, other, more fungible players can be snuck through waivers a bit easier. (*All ages are for Opening Day 2014) Continue reading 40 Man Roster Decisions – Part 1 – On the Roster →