Tyler Mach seems to be the man of the hour. Everyone knows that I wasn’t found of the pick when it was made and said as much in my draft review, and now folks want to know if I’ve changed my mind, and they want to know why he’s still in Williamsport and hasn’t been moved up. So, I’ll try and tackle those questions and give you as good an answer as I can. Before that, just to add there is nothing new on the Joe Savery front, as far as I know, but he’s going to sign. I’ve also got nothing new to add on Brandon Workman and Julian Sampson, but I have a feeling that nothing will happen there until Savery is signed. Now, onto Mach-Mania..
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Rotoworld’s Top 150 prospects
Midseason report released today.
29. Carlos Carrasco – RHP Phillies – DOB: 03/21/87 – ETA: June 2008
Previous rankings: 2007 #936-2, 2.84 ERA, 49 H, 53/22 K/BB in 69 2/3 IP for Single-A Clearwater
3-0, 3.48 ERA, 15 H, 14/12 K/BB in 20 2/3 IP for Double-A ReadingThe lack of a strikeout breaking ball hasn’t prevented Carrasco from holding hitters to a .199 average this season. That’s because he has nice movement on his 91-94 mph fastball and one of the top changeups in the minors. An improved curveball would give him top-of-the-rotation potential, and he still looks plenty good enough to succeed as is. The Phillies could choose to hurry him to the majors next month if they’re still in contention.
Pitchers ranked ahead of Carrasco
4. Clay Buchholz (BOS)
12. Max Scherzer (ARI)
14. Adam Miller (CLE)
16. Eric Hurley (TEX)
19. Joba Chamberlain (NYY)
21. Gio Gonzalez (CHW)
22. Nick Adenhart (ANA)
24. Wade Davis (TBD)
27. Jacob McGee (TBD)
That would make double C the 10th best pitching prospect in baseball. Not bad.
Adrian Cardenas checks in at #93 which is low, considering the names above him. Mathieson was ranked #125, and Josh Outman #130.
Matt Rizzotti article
Yesterday I linked up an article on William Harris written by Donald Leypoldt, and he was kind enough to share an article he wrote on Matt Rizzotti as well that hasn’t made it’s way online yet. If you missed the Harris article, you can find it here. Below is Donald’s article on Rizzotti…enjoy.
Jonathon Mayo from MILB.com on the Phils
Head on over to a new blog that covers all things Philly sports, spliterati.com and check out a podcast interview they recently did with Johnathon Mayo from milb.com. Lots of good stuff here, check back on these guys often.
Odds and Ends
A few notes for today.
* I’ve updated the prospect tracker to include all the links for guys in the GCL. Just a note, the links are to minorleaguesplits.com, which gives more info than you can find via minorleaguebaseball.com, but the numbers are not as up to date. If you want up to the minute stats, go to minorleaguebaseball.com, but if you want more in depth split info, use the latter. I’ll update the Williamsport guys either today or tomorrow.
Tuesday morning thoughts..
Some things that I find interesting, but maybe you won’t.
* Adrian Cardenas has quietly put together a very big June and July to bring his season totals up to a solid .307/.366/.449. His month to month splits indicate he’s taken some time to adjust, but he’s getting into the swing of things now
April: 91 PA — .271/.297/.388 — 4.4% BB — 18.7% K — 26% XBH
May: 112 PA — .273/.339/.485 — 8.0% BB — 11.6% K — 37% XBH
June: 99 PA — .360/.434/.465 — 10.1% BB — 11.1% K — 29% XBH
The more telling number, however, is his home/road split. As I’ve talked about in the past, Lakewood is a pitcher’s park, and greatly reduces home runs hit. Cardenas’ split looks like this
Home: .264/.321/.382
Away: .333/.395/.512
That indicates, to me, that he should see his numbers improve when he moves to Clearwater next year, especially in the power department.
* Why are the Phillies still haggling with Joe Savery? The kid has huge ambitions, which may or may not need to be tempered, but get him signed and into the system, and then worry about how quickly he’ll move up the ladder. It’s logical to assume the Savery negotiations are affecting the Workman/Sampson negotiations, so just get the freakin’ deal done and move on.
I actually am going to cut today short, but if you check back later, and again tomorrow, I’m going to update the prospect tracker (found at the top of the page) with all of the guys in short season ball.
Pitcher or hitter?
This debate is one that goes back a bit, as the Phillies have had their share of two way players, and invariably, they always seem to pick the wrong route for that guy. This question is again at the forefront with Jiwan James. James was a gifted two way player in High School, and turned down a commitment to Florida, where he was set to play Wide Receiver, in order to sign with the Phillies. Most were unsure which way he would go, and the Phillies have decided to put him on the mound. There’s no way of knowing if this is permanent, but it likely is. Not surprisingly, I think this is the wrong way to go.
Futures Game thoughts
I’m sad to say, I missed most of the game yesterday, but I did happen to catch Carrasco’s inning. His fastball looked good, he was adding and subtracting from it, throwing it anywhere from 89-95, and it had good movement on it. The one mistake he made was to Jay Bruce, but he just challenged him with a high fastball and Bruce turned it around….that happens from time to time. His changeup looked good, as did his curve, though it appeared a bit loopy at times. He could probably get by in the majors for a little while with just his fastball and changeup, but in the long run, he’ll need for his curveball to become at least a major league average pitch. It’s going to be really interesting to see how the Phillies handle him going forward. His last appearance in Reading was solid, going 4 innings and allowing only 1 hit and no runs. With all of the injuries right now, I wouldn’t be shocked if they brought him up. I think if they do bring him up, they need to stick with him for the rest of the season. Carrasco had confidence issues two years ago, and I’d hate to see him get brought up for a start or two, then get sent down and it set him back. He has a phenomenal arm, and I think the coaching at the top level could help him, but it’s a tough situation and certainly a difficult decision for Gillick.
So, what did you think of his performance? What do you think the Phillies should do with him for the rest of this season?
My top 3 hitters and pitchers
You’ve weighed in and given your reasons, now I’ll give it a shot.
Pitchers, excluding Carrasco
01. Josh Outman, LHP – There are a number of reasons why I think Outman is our best pitching prospect outside of Carrasco. #1, he’s lefthanded and has a low 90’s fastball. It’s rare to see LHP consistently pitch in the 91-94 range. He has 1 real good secondary pitch, his slider, and it’s a pure swing and miss pitch. He lacks a plus changeup at this point, but he’s putting up solid numbers at A+, and the only thing lacking is his overall control, but his BB/9 numbers have dropped every month since April, a positive sign. We also have to remember that he drastically changed his pitching motion before being drafted, and 2007 is only his 3rd pro season. I think he still has potential to be a #2 starter if he can hone his command and control and develop at least a major league average changeup.
02. Kyle Drabek, RHP – I think despite his arm soreness now, Drabek is #2 on the list. His April was excellent, with 9.23 K/9 against only 2.88 BB/9 and solid groundball tendencies. He struggled a bit in May, then came down with the injury, so it’s tough to really put a gauge on him right now. I think he’ll be back in August, and it should be a good indicator of where he stands. 3 months in Lakewood in age 19 isn’t a lost season by any means. He showed the good fastball curveball combination, and from everything I’ve read, the mental aspect of his game took a big leap forward this year. A healthy Drabek pushes Outman for the top spot.
03. James Happ, LHP – His debut didn’t go as planned, and he’s walked way too many guys this year, but he has shown that the strikeouts from last season across multiple levels weren’t a fluke. He needs to throw better quality strikes and not fall behind, but he has an average fastball with late life and two above average secondary pitches. You really can never judge a guy on 1 start, good or bad, but I think he’ll be back later this year, and I think he still has the potential to be a #4 starter in the majors.
And now, the hitters, sans Cardenas
Top 3 hitting prospects, in your opinion
Similar to the pitching prospect post from a few days ago. This time, exclude Adrian Cardenas from your list. Give your top 3 and why you think they are in the position they are. I’ll give my top 3 pitchers and hitters tomorrow at some point.
Also a note. I really enjoy the discourse back and forth in the comments section. I think we’ve had something like 1600 comments since the blog started, which is awesome, in my opinion. However, try to remember that you can’t edit your comment after you’ve submitted it, so think before you write, and try to remain civil, that’s all I ask.
Phuture Phillies 