All posts by giventofly41

Bill Conlin is a bitter, angry old man

In case you haven’t read Bill1Chair’s latest nugget of goodness, you can find it here. As Bill often tends to do, he exaggerates and sensationalizes things to try and sound like a voice of authority, when in reality, he really provides very few facts and even less context. Here is the money excerpt from his latest piece, where he basically says taking Kyle Drabek was a mistake;

Drabek became the latest first-round draft pick to join an ill-starred list of can’t-miss righthanders who became damaged goods early in their Phillies careers and never amounted to much.

The list includes Roy Thomas (1971, No. 6 pick overall), Brad Brink (1986, No. 7 overall), Tyler Green (1991, No. 10 overall) and, now, Drabek (2006, No. 18 overall.) It turned out Thomas and Brink were injured before their signings. Green had been shut down in both high school and college. I am tempted to add Brett Myers (1999, No. 12 overall) to the list, but this was the first arm injury of his career and the jury is still out on the long-term implications of history’s longest-running shoulder “strain.” Lefthander Cole Hamels (2002, No. 17 overall) had back issues in the minors, but does a rigorous daily program that has kept him healthy as a major leaguer.

Bill attempts to paint the Phillies as incompetent because we’ve drafted 3 (4 if you count Drabek) guys who had major arm trouble in the low minors, over a 35 year time period. That’s right….4 guys in 35 years, considering the position and the unstable nature of amateur talent, and Bill is convinced the Phillies do no leg work on their draft picks. He somehow tries to sneak Brett Myers into the conversation, even though Myers hasn’t been hurt at all up until this year. Also, if you notice, he’s including Drabek in the same sentence that concludes with “never amounted to much”…do you think he knows that the recovery rate from TJ is high? Wanna see an organization that can’t draft pitching? Check out Pittsburgh over the last 10 years. Jon Van Benschoten, Sean Burnett, Brad Lincoln and Bryan Bullington were all first round picks who would up with major arm problems requiring surgery, and all were picked within a 4-5 year span.

This type of irresponsible journalism isn’t new, especially from Conlin. Every once in a while he spins a good yarn about the incompetence of the Phillies ownership group, but many times, like this instance, he’s way off base. I’d recommend sending him an e-mail, his address is right at the bottom of the article above. Just a warning, you may get a snappy return that does or does not mention his timeshare in the Dominican Republic.

Kyle Drabek to have Tommy John surgery

Yep. Honestly, I’d actually prefer he just have the surgery now, fix what’s wrong, and then come back stronger and not have to worry about it anymore. Rehabbing does not seem to work, the majority of the time, so have the surgery and just be done with it. Recovery rate is very high, nothing to panic over, probably just better that it happened now rather than later.

On Workman and Sampson

The Phillies two picks remaining of their first 15 to not sign are 3rd rounder Brandon Workman and 12th rounder Julian Sampson, both RHP prepsters. I wouldn’t be overly concerned just yet, even though we are less than a month from the signing deadline. Half of the first round has yet to sign, and the general consensus is that teams wait as long as possible, as to not anger the Commissioners office. If you’re going to bust slot, you generally wait till the end, as to not set a precedent for other prospects who haven’t signed. The rumored numbers are about $600,000 for Workman and $250,000 for Sampson. Personally, I feel like the former has a very good chance of happening, the latter, I’m not so sure. If both guys sign, it will turn this draft into a B- in my book. I’m still not thrilled with how rounds 3-10 played out, but signing Jiwan James and Jacob Diekman is a definite plus, and if they grab Sampson as well, that’s a nice haul. We’ll see…

Phillies make a splash in Latin America

Tip of the cap to reader SQUIRE for pointing out that the Phillies inked Dominican shortstop Carlos Valenzuela, paying him a reported bonus of $200,000. I’ve got a few e-mails out, I’ll see what kind of info I can find on him.

I’ve got that he’s a plus fielder, plus arm strength and accuracy, plus range and some projection in his bat that could see him develop average power. His bat is also more advanced than Galvis, for what that’s worth.

Jason Donald and James Happ

My picks for biggest step forward and biggest step back are Jason Donald and James Happ, with honorable mentions going to Quintin Berry and Greg Golson and dishonorable mention going to Zach Segovia. The suggestions thrown out in yesterday’s discussion were good, but I can’t see listing Cardenas and Carrasco on the step forward side, mainly because they were elite prospects and expected to perform. On the flip side, I can’t mention CJ Henry on the step back side, because I don’t think anyone really expected anything great out of him. Berry and Golson have both taken nice steps forward, but I want to see more patience from Golson and a bit more pop in Berry’s bat before I get too excited. Here’s why I chose the guys I did…

Continue reading Jason Donald and James Happ

Biggest step forward/backward?

Another open discussion question. Which propsect (or two) do you feel has taken the greatest step forward this season, and on the flip side, which guy has taken the biggest step backward? My answer will come tomorrow.

Are the Phillies buyers or sellers?

Open discussion question today. The trade deadline is 2 weeks away. Should the big league club be buying or selling? If they are buying, what prospects do you think should be considered off limits? Keep in mind, you normally have to give something to get something. In my mind, the Phillies are constructed to “win now”, in the sense that much of their talent is at its peak or getting close to its peak, and they aren’t really in the beginning of a 5 year plan or something like that where they have a bigger window of opportunity. So, what do you think? Who shouldn’t be traded?

Joe Savery signs

Well, maybe. This article has a headline that includes the word “reportedly”, yet it comes from Phillies.com. So, did he or didn’t he? I’ll assume he did, and if so, that’s one step closer to this draft being at least average, and probably a bit better. Maybe we should insert Savery into the rotation now.

Phillies sign Brazilian prospect

This excerpt comes from the New York Times

Brazilian Baseball Confederation officials say one of their main goals is to make the game popular — or at least known — among other Brazilians. As a result, programs to encourage youngsters to play baseball have been organized in recent years on the hardscrabble outskirts of some major cities, and new leagues and tournaments have begun.

That effort has already yielded a promising player who will be competing in Rio. Gilmar Pereira is a strapping 19-year-old right-handed pitcher with a 95-mile-an-hour fastball who was recruited from a poor neighborhood eight years ago, sent to Japan at 14 for three years of nurturing, and is now a Phillies farmhand.

“My dad thought at first that this was a sport with no future, but thanks to baseball, I’ve received a good education and gotten to know other cultures,” Pereira said. “I don’t know where I’d be today without baseball, because there is a lot of crime and drugs in my old neighborhood, and baseball has calmed me down and given me a focus in life.”

That’s all I know, but everyone likes a 95 mph fastball.