Phillies Discussion (8/13/2026)

Here’s a new Phillies Discussion. 


The Phillies have played eight series since the All Star break.  They lost 3-game series against the Mets (1-2), Dodgers (1-2), Yankees (1-2), Marlins (0-3), Blue Jays (1-2), and Cardinals (1-2).  They won series against the Orioles (2-1) and Nationals (3-1).  They have won just 10 of 25 games.


The Phillies’ playoff chances lessen with each loss.  Atlanta and Los Angeles have comfortable leads in their divisions.  Milwaukee and Chicago are separated by three games.  Either would have a comfortable lead for the top wild card.  San Diego has moved ahead of Arizona and the Phillies by a game.  Arizona currently holds the head-to-head tie-breaker over the Phillies 2-1.  The teams meet in Arizona at the end of the month for three games.  Should they end the season in a tie with the Padres, the Phillies hold the head-to-head tie-breaker, 6-0.

The Phillies poor play has brought other teams back into the wild card race.  Miami and St. Louis are within three games of the final spot.  Washington, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh have pulled closer but are still five to six games back and probably not realistic threats.


Here’s a quick look at some rotation stats.

Sanchez has 25 starts, a 15-4 record, and a 2.54 ERA.  Of his 6 No Decisions (ND), he pitched well enough to win four of them.  He gave up 1 earned run (ER) in 5.1 innings pitched (IP)of his first ND, 2 ER in 6.2 IP of his third ND, 0 ER in 8.0 IP in his fourth ND, and 0 ER in 6.0 IP of his sixth ND.  Of course these things sometimes balance – he gave up 11 ER on 10.1 IP of his other two ND.

Sanchez has allowed 0, 1, or 2 ER in 20 of his 25 starts. He allowed 6, 4, 5,9, and 3 ER in his other 5 starts.  With a little better support, he might have several more wins.

Nola has 24 starts, a 3-9 record, and a 5.47 ERA.  Of his 11 ND, he pitched well enough to have 3 or 4 more wins.  He gave up 3 ER in 5.0 IP twice, 2 ER in 5.0 IP four times, 3 ER in 6.0 IP once.  He also gave up 3 ER in 4.2 IP twice and 6 ER in 3.2 IP and 5 ER in 4.1 IP.

Nola has allowed 0, 1, or 2 ER in 9 of his 24 starts.  He gave up 3 ER in 8 of his starts, 4 ER in one start, 5 ER in 3 starts, 6 ER in 2 starts, and 7 runs in one start.  His inability to go deeper in games leaves him at the mercy of four relievers each start and keeps him from logging more wins.

Luzardo has  24 starts, a 10-5 record, and a 3.32 ERA.  Of his 9 ND, he pitched well enough to win 5 or 6 of them.  He gave up 1 ER in 4.2 IP, 0 ER in 6.0 IP (the Suarez game), 2 ER in 5.1 IP, 1 ER in 6.2 IP, 1 ER in 5.0 IP, and 2 ER in 7.0 IP.  But, he also escaped with ND after giving up 5, 5, and 6 ER in 3 other ND.

Luzardo has allowed 0, 1, or 2 ER in 18 of his 24 starts.  He gave up 5 ER in 3 starts, 6 ER in 2 starts, and 8 ER in one start.  He was victimized by blown saves in 3 of his starts.  With a little better support, he certainly could have another 6 or 7 wins.

Wheeler has 20 starts, a 10-4 record, and a 2.89 ERA.  Of his 6 ND, he pitched well enough to pick up another couple wins.  He gave up 2 ER in 5.0 IP in his first start of the season.  He gave up 3 ER in 6.1 IP, 1 ER in 6.0 IP, and 0 ER in 2.0 IP in a game that had a long rain delay.  He gave up 4 ER in 4.2 IP and 5 ER in 3.0 IP in his other 2 ND.

Wheeler has allowed 0, 1, or 2 ER in 14 of his 20 starts.  He gave up 3 ER once, 4 ER four times, and 5 ER once.  He pitched well enough to have one maybe 2 more wins.  He has given up 4 or more runs in 3 of his last 4 games (the other was the rain-delay game).  If the trend continues, maybe they brought him back too early?  Or his age is showing?

Painter has 15 starts, a 2-8 record, and a 6.27 ERA.  He also has 2 games where he followed an opener.  Of his 7 ND, he pitched well enough to pick up a couple more wins.  He gave up 1 ER in his first game following an opener.  He was the victim of an Alvarado blown save.  He gave up 1 ER in 5.0 IP in a game that was tied when he departed.  He gave up 2 ER in 6.0 IP and was the victim of a Keller blown save.  He gave up 2 ER in 6.0 IP and was the victim of a Kerkering blown save.  He gave up 1 ER in 4.0 IP before leaving due to thigh tightness.  He gave up 4 ER in 4.0 IP and 5 ER in 5.0 IP in his other 2 ND.

Painter has allowed 0, 1, or 2 ER in 8 of his 17 starts/appearances.  In his other 9 games, he allowed 3 ER twice, 4 ER twice, 5 ER twice, 6 ER twice, and 8 ER once.  He has been effective in his last 3 starts since returning from Lehigh Valley – 5 ER (2-1-2) in 15.1 IP.  He has pitched well enough to have more wins.

I’m goin to pass on the other 11 games – Walker (4), Backhus/Walker (1), Mayza/Rangel, (2) Rangel (3), and a bullpen game (1).  They have been 1-9 with a ND in those games.  Rangel pitched well enough to have 1 (maybe 2) wins in those games.

Sorry to put you all through this but a comment spurred me to look something up.  The data presented was the end result.  I think it shows that the record attached to the fifth or fourth/fifth starters by media and others is not quite accurate or at best doesn’t present a clear picture.  Not that the above stuff is all that clear.

I’m aware that 3 ER in six IP has been considered a quality start since 1985.  (Thank you to John Lowe of the Philadelphia Inquirer.)  I don’t know why I focused on 0, 1, 2 ER.  Probably twofold.  First, I randomly started with Luzardo and was amazed that he either gave up 2 or less ER or 5 or more ER.  He hasn’t given up 3 or 4 ER in a game this season.  Second, I wanted to convey the impression that if the Phillies had just scored one more run than the starters gave up in those games they would have won them all.  I felt that it was more reasonable to expect 3 runs than 4 runs from our daily lineup.  Of course, I know that they would also have to cover the runs the bullpen gave up.  But, the point wasn’t to show the bullpen’s shortfalls but rather to focus on the solid pitching (if applicable) from all five starters.


Important Dates

  • July 27, 2026, 5:00 p.m. ET: Deadline to sign 2026 draft picks
    • Deadline applies to players drafted out of 4-year colleges and HS
  • August 3, 2026: MLB trade deadline at 6:00 P.M. ET
  • August 7-8, 2026: Date players who signed on July 23-24 have to placed on a roster (15 days after signing for both draftees and UDFAs)
  • August 13, 2026: Field of Dreams Game, Thursday game from Phillies at Twins series
  • December 1, 2026 (11:59 p.m. ET): MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement expires.

Note: These dates will be used unless/until notified differently.  (Note that there are many more dates to add from Spring Training through the end of the 2026 season and calendar year.  I will add when I have accurate dates for them.)

Transactions

08/12/2026 – Jersey Shore placed 2B Tyler Pettorini on the 7-day IL
08/12/2026 – Jersey Shore activated OF Joel Dragoo from the Development List
08/12/2026 – Clearwater placed RHP MT Morrissey on the 7-day IL retroactive to 8/10
08/12/2026 – Clearwater activated RHP Cole Gilley from the Development List
08/12/2026 – 2B Juan Medina assigned to DSL Phillies
08/12/2026 – DSL Phillies placed RHP Albertt Medina on the 60-day IL
08/11/2026 – Phillies recalled RHP Alex McFarlane from Lehigh Valley
08/11/2026 – Phillies optioned RHP Alan Rangel to Lehigh Valley
08/11/2026 – Lehigh Valley placed RHP Daniel Robert on the FS IL
08/11/2026 – C Mark Kolozsvary assigned to Reading from Jersey Shore
08/11/2026 – Reading transferred C Guillermo Rosario to the Development List
08/11/2026 – RHP Brandon Beckel assigned to Jersey Shore from Lehigh Valley
08/11/2026 – SS Romeli Espinosa assigned to Jersey Shore from Clearwater
08/11/2026 – Jersey Shore transferred OF Joel Dragoo to the Development List
08/11/2026 – SS Reece Moroney assigned to Clearwater from FCL Phillies
08/10/2026 – Phillies placed RHP Caleb Kilian on the 15-day IL, left oblique strain
08/10/2026 – Phillies recalled RHP Chase Shugart from Lehigh Valley
08/09/2026 – Phillies optioned RHP Chase Shugart to Lehigh Valley
08/09/2026 – Phillies recalled RHP Alan Rangel from Lehigh Valley
08/09/2026 – Lehigh Valley transferred LHP Kolby Allard from the 7-day to the 60-day IL
08/09/2026 – RHP Brandon Beckel assigned to Lehigh Valley from Jersey Shore
08/09/2026 – Lehigh Valley released C Lou Albrecht
08/09/2026 – Clearwater released RHP Peyton Havard
08/08/2026 – Clearwater placed SS Owen Clyne on the 7-day IL
08/08/2026 – SS Romeli Espinosa assigned to Clearwater from FCL Phillies
08/07/2026 – Phillies signed FA RHP Lou Trivino III to an MiLB contract
08/07/2026 – RHP Lou Trivino III assigned to Lehigh Valley
08/07/2026 – Lehigh Valley placed LHP Kolby Allard on the 7-day IL retroactive to 8/6
08/07/2026 – Lehigh Valley activated C Payton Henry
08/07/2026 – Reading sent 3B Bryson Ware on a rehab assignment to Jersey Shore
08/07/2026 – Jersey Shore activated RHP Ryan Dromboski from the 7-day IL
08/07/2026 – Jersey Shore placed C Alirio Ferrebus on the 7-day IL retroactive to 8/6
08/07/2026 – Jersey Shore sent SS Brady Day on a rehab assignment to Clearwater
08/07/2026 – Jersey Shore activated LHP Kevin Warunek from the 7-day IL
08/06/2026 – Lehigh Valley transferred C Jordan Dissin to the Development List
08/06/2026 – Lehigh Valley transferred C Lou Albrecht to the Development List

214 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion (8/13/2026)

  1. This is only being published because I had written it before catching up on the comments. If it hadn’t already been written, Phuture Phillies might have gone dark with the last article remaining open for more comments forever.

    I’m tired of snowflakes like colorado phil calling me a bully when I comment on an incorrect statement. The snowflake took exception to being corrected even waving the “differing opinions” and “free speech” flags.

    You cannot counter a fact with an opinion. That’s like saying an opinion that the earth is flat is a valid argument against the fact that the earth is round.

    I’m tired of providing a Phillies discussion on a site titled Phuture Phillies. I don’t really want to go back to providing nightly minor league updates. I’d prefer doing what I was “hired” to do which was report on the Gulf Coast League (now the Florida Complex League) and other things going on at the Complex. My Twitter profile was and remains “Writer at Phuture Phillies based in Clearwater covering Phillies prospects in ST, XST, FSL, FCL, and Instructs”. I didn’t sign up for all this other stuff.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Hi Jim

      We all appreciate all of the work you do to keep this community alive and thriving. Ignore the negative stuff. It’s noise.

      That said, we all understand it can be a grind. Why not bring on a partner to help? I think that Mitch Rupert would be a great partner. He puts out so much great content on our pharm.

      Like

    2. @Colorado Phils Fan – The point made was not the need to SHELTER tax, it was to AVOID tax, two COMPLETELY different things. The avoidance of tax also allows him to use the money as he sees fit for short term needs.

      When you SHELTER money, it’s not usable, think retirement income as a form of sheltered income (401(k). Once you use it, you pay tax.

      I’m a 30 year CPA … you’re way off base in relation to what Steve and Jim are talking about. Jim is right, this is NOT about free speech, it’s about what’s right. And Steve has WAY more knowledge than most everyone on here, he’s probably stated it at least 10 times.

      The Phillies are doing the right thing for the player, i would think in a multitude of ways. It’s no easy transition coming over, so it’s OK to let him have success. But having that money available to him, and more of it by not paying US taxes, is HUGE for him. I applaud the Phillies for setting him up financially. Appears to me they are playing the longer game with him and that’s fine.

      And I REALLY appreciate Steve for explaining all this, because from a pure baseball perspective, there is an argument to be made to bring him over now. But with Steve’s words, I really appreciate how the Phillies are handling it.

      Like

        1. Francisco Renteria. Steve has said on MANY occasions that he will not come over and ONE of the reasons is so that his bonus will have fewer tax consequences. if he comes over this year, it would harm him finanically.

          Like

  2. Here here!

    Marsh with the swim move, Michael Phelps out there.. nice to see Schwarb deposit one into the Corn, HY Kyle!

    Like

  3. God game Nola. Posting his starts he still has, 6 Quality starts out of 27 post the whole picture. He is a overpaid starter. A 5th at best

    Like

      1. curious why Nola was more effective this start. I noticed he may have found a new tunnel for his knuckle curve. it was down more than I’ve seen it in a while. Maybe his sequencing was better, or it might just be the Twins aren’t familiar with the crafty vet at this point but … that is a good run he’s been on … will see. he might have already started that reinvention of himself, yet again, much to Rocco’s dismay 🙂

        Like

          1. You’re all good Rocco. Keeps the dreamers like me in check. This felt like a turning point for him. The gopher balls didnt seem as immenent as in his other starts. His location with his knucklecurve was great yesterday. His success agasint Bell is a good indicator. He’s had his fair share of success versus Nola, he’d of taken him yard if Nola was off.

            Like

    1. There was a pretty good Japanese 3B last offseason to replace Bohm that we passed on. Hopefully this scenario plays out, although I’d rather see Trea in LF vs RF

      Like

      1. I’d rather see Turner in CF. He should be able to play at a high level there. Move Crawford to RF. Bohm is the obvious update candidate for the INF & offense. Surprising after it looked like his Allstar half was a new leaf for him. Here we are. Catcher is the next offensive upgrade candidate, but the defense & pitching staff take a dip. I’d also look at trading high on marsh, he might be falling into Bohm’s Allstar lull. If so, an OF upgrade would be nice as well. Something to monitor.

        I also hope Harper and Schwarber split 1B during the Season. Like 85/15% of the time, get harper off his feet, maximums the days off. Schwarber plays 1B the game before a scheduled off day, then immediately gets a rest day. Harper in turn gets 2 days off his feet in a row. Best way to manage that imo.

        Like

    2. If all else stays as is and Bohm is gone…I’d go:

      Schwarber dh

      Arraez 2b

      Harper 1b

      Sato 3b

      Turner cf

      Marsh rf

      Realmuto c

      Stott ss

      Crawford lf

      That’s a seriously heavy lefty hitting lineup. We’d need a strong righty bat or 2 coming off the bench, assuming a platoon in RF and LF is in order.

      Liked by 1 person

  4. Two things can be true: Nola is overpaid and he’s pitched pretty well since the break (4.09 ERA in 6 starts/33 innings). If Nola and Painter pitch to 3.00 – 4.00-ish ERAs and the rest of the rotation stays healthy, this team will make the playoffs, despite its maddening, inconsistent offense.

    Like

    1. You forgot the 3rd truth ….. in order to win the game, you must score more runs then the opposition! Its never been about our starting pitching! It’s the BATS!

      Like

  5. Another slow start for a Phillies team … DSL Phillies ONLY score 11 in the first. Parra and Renteria both 2-2 in the inning, Renteria with his 10th HR

    Like

  6. Here’s a little nostalgia for you if it’s okay with Dr. Jimmy: I thought of this after watching Cody Clemens play catch with his father. In 1983 Roger Clemens led the Texas Longhorns to the College World Series championship. He was 13-5 for the season with a 3.05 ERA.

    The Red Sox drafted him and he immediately went to A ball in Winter Haven where he pitched 29 innings in 4 games (3-1) with an ERA of 1.24. They moved him up to AA New Britain to finish the season with a 1.38 ERA in 7 games (4-1) with 52 innings pitched.

    Here’s where I come in. Reading had a monster team that beat out Lynn (MA) by 18.5 games for the league championship. Juan Samuel was on that team. The BritSox came in 4th and had to face Reading in a best of 3 series. I went to the rubber game in New Britain.

    Clemens pitched them to a win in the playoff’s deciding game. From there they went on to beat second place Lynn 3 games to 1 for the Eastern League crown. Here’s a guy who pitched a ton of innings for Texas, then 29 in A ball, 52 in AA and I don’t know how many in the playoffs. Those were “the good old days” that are unheard of in today’s game.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Let me finish this off quickly. Clemens started the next season (1984) at AAA Pawtucket. He pitched 47 innings in 7 games with a 1.93 ERA. The Sox called him up at that point and the rest is history.

    Like

    1. I liked Cody. He seems like a good hard working young man and very grounded for a player who’s father was as accomplished as his.

      Liked by 1 person

  8. Marquez with his first start for the giants. 4ip, 4er, but 8ks. Sorry if this was already posted about.

    Like

  9. I would never go to someone’s house and insult them. Its not in my make-up. I’ve been away a few days but just reading Jim’s post without asking any questions I can piece it together.

    Lines sometimes get blurred I get that but if I drew that type of ire I’d surely apologize.

    I come here for information and to posit observations and frankly to feel a part of a community that cares about the Phillies more than the average person.

    I was recently laid off after 20 some years and it dawned on me how long I’ve been coming here. Which has been at least that long. I quickly got snapped up by one of my vendors. Thankfully experience still means something in my industry.

    I’m building my business back up and recently connected with a gentleman who low and behold was drafted by the Phillies in 2011. He’s now working in my industry and it was fun reminicsing about Larry Greene and Roman Quinn. the only two players I could remember off the top of my head from that draft.

    This guy was a late round pick no one here would remember. And a stark reminder to never take this game or oneself too seriously.

    Liked by 1 person

  10. iomus did you see . Dsl wins on late field goal. 19-18. Renteria can do it all 60 yr fg to win it. 14 walked

    Like

  11. Gelb today with the bleakest assessment of Miller’s situation yet:

    “My sense is the Phillies do not know what to expect with regards to Miller’s future. They have operated conservatively for six months now, but the root of his back problems dates back longer than that. … I do not think the Phillies will enter this offseason banking on Miller being a part of their 2027 plans. Maybe the yearlong pause in his career will benefit him in the long run, and he emerges in 2027. But they cannot plan around that when constructing the roster. It’s a brutal situation for everyone involved.”

    And still no sign of Nori either.

    Liked by 1 person

      1. it’s tough to hear, but let me try to add some positivity to this …

        I’m not a doctor but ChatGPT basically is.. and well AI doesn’t believe it to be career threatening injury. The issue is, it’s multi-tiered recovery. More than one area of his back is impacted by the injury. It can be difficult to determine the correct path for recovery because first they had to rule out if the actual surgery worked, then fix the 2nd & 3rd issues causing irritation & pain. I wouldn’t count on him for 2027. You’re likely looking at 2029, possibly 2028. I hope of the leg shuts down he still gets the treatment plan.

        to give some perspective- Kris Bryant & Don Mattingly had very similar injuries. I’d image its something Miller can get through much like Chase got through his knee pain. Not exactly the same but similar approaches

        Like

        1. If Miller misses 2026, 2027 and 2028 he is done. There is no coming back from missing 3 years of development as a hitter. He would be done if that scenario plays out. Frankly missing 2026 is a massive set back. But 2 more years is a baseball death sentence.

          Liked by 1 person

          1. I hear ya, for me… im not worried yet. Concerned yes. but after going through all these players injuries over the years (all sports) I think they figure it out. I don’t want to jinx anything but there are few people playing now that gave off the ” career ending injury” vibes. He’ll be fine.

            Like

    1. Dante Nori will begin a rehab assignment today for CW in Fort Myers. Matt was answering a question in his Q&A – he is speculating – the Phillies will make a statement when they feel appropriate about Aidan but I can tell ya he’s making progress and continues to work on his rehab in CW.

      Like

  12. Jim – I’d support you moving this site back to a Phuture Phillies site, like it was in the old days. Let’s talk prospects again! The Miller news is depressing but not that surprising either. Back issues do t typically go away for ever.

    Like

    1. With what’s going on with Miller that’s what made the Spangler pick so curious. Like everyone is saying, to have back issues @ such a young, û just never know and it’s such a big risk

      Like

      1. Age*. And yes, let’s get back to making this a prospect site and if people want to talk about the Big League Phillies, there is other websites for them to entertain.

        Like

        1. We have tried that. There is a reason this site morphed into what it is now.
          1. Making it a prospect site requires well written articles on a constant basis. No one wanted to do that.
          2. Even when they did, there was not much engagement from community. People started leaving MLB comments on the minor league posts
          3. We tried to enforce no MLB talk on minor league posts and there was basically no community engagement. So Jim made a once a week post for MLB. That is what everyone engaged with.

          So this is where we landed.

          Liked by 2 people

  13. In all of the years of watching prospects. I can’t recall another Phillies prospect who consistently hits the ball as hard as Bogenpohl. 3 more 100+ EV tonight with 117 as the top EV. 117!! That’s insane.

    I am all aboard the Bogenpohl band wagon.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Especially at 21 years old! Otto Kemp (max EV of 115.5 mph) and Felix Reyes (115 mph) have gotten close in AAA, but 117 is Schwarber-esque (max of 119.7 mph). Very impressive!

      Liked by 1 person

    2. V1 …… your take? Is exit velocity a result of technique or strength (forearm development)? It seems Schwarber’s swing arc is short to me and he appears to have quick wrists as does Kemp. So, what do the experts recognize as the ingredients for plus exit velocity and does someone with exit velocity of say 112 have the ability to increase it by changing technique or physical conditioning? What is the highest exit velocity ever recorded, by whom?

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Physics 101…velocity = mass x acceleration. Which is to say that I think it is a combination of both factors. Clearly, mass alone isn’t enough or we would see a lot of bigger players. Bat speed (velocity) is directly correlated to exit velo. Players go to programs like Driveline to specifically improve bat speed. But it also requires barrel accuracy. Doing it once is cool. But great hitters control the barrel enough to find the sweet spot a lot.

        Like

        1. Yes, Yes …… and while we are not talking about Crawford here …….. if he could acquire that barrel accuracy discipline and find the “sweet spot” more frequently ….. IMO, he would be one heck of a hitter. Thanks for responding.

          Liked by 1 person

          1. Did they track exit velocity when Dylan Cozens was making hay in Reading?

            If so, how does he compare to Bogenpohl? Still kind of hard to believe he did get a better MLB run than he did. His Reading numbers had me hyped… and once Hoskins had his initial run, I was thinking Phillies’ Bash Brothers… Well… another good laugh on the Philly Phan base from the Baseball Gods!

            Like

  14. Renteria is now leading the DSL in SLG (.674) OPS (1.138) and wRC+ (174) while maintaining a 15.8 K% and 13.6 BB%. That’s top in the DSL, not just 17 year olds.

    Batted Ball profile is insightful

    LD% 13.9 GB% 51.7 FB% 34.4 IFFB% 7.7 GB/FB 1.50

    Pull% 49.7 Cent% 24.2 Oppo% 26.1

    swings and misses 13.3%, averages 3.254 pitches per PA

    Like

    1. His metrics are all excellent…..the 52% GB could be a notch lowwer…..but as a 17-year old no worries there. The league-average GB% in MLB hovers right around 42% to 44% of all batted balls in play.

      Like

  15. Three games today. Phillies eagles ,and lhv. Feel sorry for people. Not from philly. Getting a Angelis pizza, federal donuts and water ice from Johns. Forgot to get city pretzels they close at 11 dam.

    Like

  16. Renteria hit his 11th HR of the season today, also has 3 walks, 2 SB, 2 Runs, 2 RBI’s. His OPS is now 1.159

    Like

  17. I know I could look this up… but .. do the Philies still have Klause? The pitcher they got in the Syndeguard trade with the Angels?

    (Stirring prospect talk)

    Like

    1. I think you’re misremembering. We only got Syndergaard (and Marsh in a separate trade) from the Angels.

      Are you thinking of Klassen? One of the pitchers we traded to the Halos for Carlos Estevez.

      Like

      1. lol that was it…

        the memory is starting to fade…

        ahhh who needs “Google” when you got a phuture Phillies posters!

        Like

  18. This kid Bogenpohl reminds me a lot of Dylan Cozens from about a decade ago. They are both 6’6″, bat left, and play the OF. Too bad Cozens didn’t make it. Hard to believe he’s only 32 years old now.

    Like

    1. It’s a small sample size on Caden, but one really important difference between the two players is the ability to make contact. Cozen’s always had contact issues. His contact rate was only 51%. That is horrible. Massive red flag.

      Caden has a 64% contact rate. Not great but materially better. Something to watch going forward.

      Like

  19. It would be nice if one of our guy’s made a big splash like Joshua Baez, 3 Hrs. in his 1rst 3 abs., however it’s not about the splash, but about the stick and the time in the pool. Maybe, Caden is that guy!

    Like

  20. Cardinal got some young talent. I hope there is minor league baseball next year. I think the phillies have at least three infielder, that are interesting. Villavicevenio, De Marini and Rincon.

    Like

  21. Gage Wood 76 IP, 0-4, 4.38 ERA, 112 K’s, 17 HRs anyone concerned about his effort yet and his tendency to give up the long ball about every outing and only at AA?

    Like

    1. I hadn’t check his numbers in awhile because they always seemed to be good. As they said with painter .its better for him to struggle now than at the bigs leagues, being able to work through this is good for his development… assuming he develops past it. Not worried yet

      Like

    1. and generally not at the same time. That’s always been the tease. The “if” they all put it together in the postseason . . .

      Like

      1. Marsh played really well for a whole year and then hit a wall. He’s a good player but has real problems with platoon splits. Bohm is hot now but he’s no better than okay and often bad. Stott is such a good fielder that, when he’s an above average hitter, it makes him a very valuable player and his platoon splits this year are outstanding. I think maybe they just want to keep him at third next year and re-sign Arraez for second – then at least you’ve got first, second and third accounted for. I doubt they re-sign Bohm and hope they don’t.

        Like

        1. If I can kind of piggy-back this. I like that idea for the offseason. I am also proposing a Brandon Marsh for Isaac Parades trade. Houston gets a lefty outfield bat they want, we get righty infield bat that we want. Both are arb eligible for 2027. Maybe we can do Stott to SS, Parades to 3B and Turner to the OF. Or, we can give Marsh and a little more to try and pry Jeremy Pena away from them to play SS for us. He’s also arb eligible for 2027.

          Either way, I think our main focus should be to get a catcher who can back-up JT and learn and take over full-time in 2028 and beyond.

          Like

          1. The Astros scout their players really well so I doubt they trade Paredes (who has 2.8 WAR) unless they have a definitive succession plan for 3B. And I just checked on Pipeline, the Astros don’t have a 3B prospect who’s close. Considering that it’s easier to find an OF than 3B, if I was the Astros GM, I wouldn’t do this trade.

            Marsh has trade value but not as much as you think. He’s slumping down to 1.1 WAR and his splits vs lefties is now .629 OPS.

            Like

          1. Romus, he might get 2/$20m tops. Essentially a 1b who hits with gap power won’t have a big market.

            Like

    2. That’s pretty much the truth, tho I think Stott has had a pretty solid year …. he seems to add whatever is needed at the moment. In fact, it occurs to me that the bottom of the lineup with maybe the exception of Schwarber has more to do with run production than the money bats.

      Like

      1. Stott is on a good run with now, to that point where getting to 3 WAR is a possibility. Obviously, the offensive bar at 3B is higher than 2B, so if he stays at 3B for 2027, we need to temper expectations. But if he delivers say Placido Polanco type production, I don’t think people here would complain too much. And before people think about giving Stott a team friendly deal, his agent is Scott Boras. It might sound crazy, but Stott is looking like he can get a $18M per year deal.

        Like

        1. It depends whose WAR you believe; on Fangraphs, Stott is already at 3.4 WAR, which puts him ahead of all of the Phillies other position players, including Harper and Schwarber. Now, do I think he’s been better than those two guys? No, I don’t. But he’s been pretty good.

          Like

  22. If speculation that Dombrowski will be extended in the off season is accurate, I doubt seriously that the Phillies will be “moving on” from the bulk of the current roster. Falling flat in the playoffs will only intensify the collective call for DD’s departure. And with the overall weakness of the farm system, how can Middleton justify one more run with this squad UNLESS this team catches lightning in a bottle come late September into October?

    And rumors of Cora replacing Donnie Baseball only give me that Joe Girardi vibe…an overbloated reputation as a cutting edge field manager who happens to be available. Not that I’m sold on Mattingly, but the sexier pick isn’t always the best one. I never confused Charlie Manuel with Tony LaRussa as a tactical genius, but a lot has to be said for a guy who connects with his players.

    Like

    1. You’ll have to navigate the new CBA while maximizing the final year of Wheeler’s contract. Depending on how this season ends, Wheeler may still be the Phillies’ most impactful player. This is the last chance to make a big move with this group. I think they saved ammo for it to be honest

      Assuming a CBA deal is reached for 2027, the Phillies could have roughly $72M coming off the books between Alvarado, Walker, Castellanos, García, Bohm, Sosa and others—not even counting rentals.

      Arraez is probably a priority to bring back, but at $12M now, his next deal could easily land around $20–25M annually. Then they still need to rebuild the bullpen and upgrade the offense. Unfortunately, you can’t plan around Aidan Miller being that upgrade anymore.

      As for Dombrowski, I think Middleton waits until after next season. He can extend him or move on, but keeping him through the CBA transition probably makes the most sense rather than changing leadership while navigating uncertain waters.

      Like

      1. Schwarber’s salary jumps from 18M to $33M and Luzardo’s goes from $11M to 27M. Duran, Stott, Marsh will all get decent/significant raises. The Phillies’ payroll for 2027 will be close to what it was this season.

        Like

  23. No matter what Arraez’ batting average ends up being he is still basically a singles hitter. That’s the reason why he’s been playing for a lot of different teams and sent on his way from one organization to the next. Second basemen don’t get a lot of respect in MLB.

    I believe, and this might really be naive, that the next team that signs Arraez will be at 2/26. That’s if a team is willing to even go 2 years. MLB Trade Rumors Steve Adams knows what he’s writing about and this falls into the category that Adams has been preaching.

    Like

    1. Agree…..Araez IMO could possibly be brought back…and based o the generosity of the owner I can see him coming back at a 3 yrs/$48M deal….$16M AAV. Phillies seem to like to negotiate against themselves.

      Like

      1. Schwarber is already at 30mil, I could be wrong but it’s on spotrac that way. Luzardo does get his bump. I’m not sold on marsh coming back if he starts to look like he’s having half a season …. Will see.

        On Arraez he’s already getting 12m, he banked on himself … I guess it determines how the CBA goes but .. salaries almost always go up.. you got guys making 45 and 60 mil a year some crazy numbers, I can’t see him getting less than 18… probably 22 is the number. My early guess. I mean.. people are saying “Tony Gywnn” when they talk about him… that doesn’t hurt whether it’s true or not!

        Like

  24. If I’m looking at this correctly, both Alcantara and Perez won’t be pitching in this upcoming series. The Phillies really need to cash in if that is indeed the case.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. not as much as however many years of Nola and Turner for their $’s.. Wasn’t the best 3 year deal but they didn’t do a good job in developing any catchers either the past decade +

      Like

    2. But this was so predictable at least on offense. For about the last 5 years a few of us kept saying, you don’t sign JT after 34 because catchers at that age drop off a cliff offensively. And that is EXACTLY what has happened even though people said “oh, he’s a good athlete, he will still be able to hit at that age” – the stats on catchers don’t back that up even if the guy is a good athlete – IT DOESN’T MATTER. There are rare unicorns but you don’t sign guys to contracts expecting they will be a unicorn.

      I will say this, if there’s one guy I’m going to overpay for defense it’s probably Realmuto. I think the one thing that has not been fully quantified yet (that I’ve seen) is the value of calling a good game and in that regard, JT is as good as anyone. And if there’s one thing this team needs is great pitching so I’m not as pissed about this as I am about someone like Turner (7 more years!!! WTF?!!).

      Like

  25. a baseball nuiance I saw. I don’t want to pick on Bohm but.. I saw what I saw. I didn’t play first but I’d imagine this would’ve helped. In the 9th, on the lead off slow dribble single… bohm’s footwork (imho) may have cost them that run. His footwork was in the middle of the bag + he didn’t seem stretch out for a person of his sizes. If his footwork is better here, and he’s extended.. I think they get the 1st out there. Now it didn’t burn them. But stuff like this is the reason they moved on from Hoskins at 1B, or at least it was part of it. Bad 1B defense really hurt in the 22 WS. Maybe I’m nitpicking, but if the Phillies don’t get that insurance run (yes by Bohm), that’s a blown save in the playoffs.. for basics

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Rhys Hoskins had terrible range, that’s the primary reason why Hoskins was negative dWar his entire career. And it didn’t help that he couldn’t pick up most of the bad throws either.

      You knew that Bohm to 1st, Stott to 3rd, Harper to RF was going to weaken the defense. Everybody saw it coming. We’re hoping that the offense will make up for it.

      Anyways, Bohm won’t be a Phillie next season.

      Like

      1. Mucho years ago when Rhys was at Reading I attended a game where he lost the opportunity for 3 errors, but dodged that bullet thru the benevolence of the scorekeeper. Similar, to our SS missing the opportunity for 4 in a game earlier this year due to the scorekeeper’s bad judgment.

        Yes, the position switches, sure didn’t improve the defense. Like I said before, it doesn’t have to be this way. Harper could still be at 1rst, De La Cruz could be in RF. I’m wondering if someone put starch in Mattingly’s “underwear and he thinks “Cruz” did it!

        Like

  26. Looks like Skubal is looking to sign with dodgers before lockout. Another spread out dodgers contract

    Like

    1. Boras is no dummy, he knows that reduced salaries are coming. It’s a near given that grandfather rules will have to be introduced to make sure that the full value of the contract will be paid. So might as well get Skubal signed now so that he will get the last big contract before the salary cap or more onerous penalties will apply.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. I wonder if the Mark Walters legal troubles affect the Dodgers. Will he have to sell the Dodgers and will he be less willing to rack up those contracts bc of how that may scare off perspective owners?

        Like

        1. Los Angeles sports teams and even the Dodgers seem to be magnets to wealthy troubled owners…before Walters there was the McCourts. Now the Lakers with Jeannie Buss are at odds about the sale of the Lakers.

          Like

          1. Walters is/was the primary owner of both the Lakers and the Dodgers. He has legal troubles – I think it’s fraud-ish related (not my area of expertise) and though it hasn’t come out yet, those charges coincided with the quick sale of the Lakers. Now, he’s getting 12 billion from that sale (I’m sure the other investors get a cut) but I have no idea how deep that will cut him. And if he thinks he may have to sell the Dodgers, I’m not sure if he’ll want to continue to rack up long term contracts.

            Franchises are increasingly because private equity investments and want to win but also squeeze every dime. I’m not sure the appeal for a team with that big of a payroll (plus deferred money) will have as much appeal. Who knows?

            Like

            1. Pperspevtive owners of sport franchises have to go thru some vetting before the vote is cast to let them buy a team…I suppose billionaires get a cursory vetting. I remember what the Mes owner, went thru…..Middleton was one of the deciding votes. And Cohen had more money then half the other owner of teams in MLB had all together.

              Like

  27. Seconding what Old Original wrote that Realmuto is worth his salary defensively. All the pitchers would prefer to throw to him. Nola and Painter seem to be the two pitchers who get the backup when Realmuto rests.

    That brings me to Wheeler. He only really wants to throw to Realmuto. I believe he said he wants to retire after next season because he figured the Phillies weren’t going to sign the backstop after last season.

    Now Wheeler is saying he might pitch one more year after this contract ends. I think the reason for that is he’d like to pad his numbers but mainly because it would be Realmuto’s last season under his contract.

    Like

    1. I didn’t really say that Realmuto is worth his contract (he probably isn’t, but I’m not sure about that), just that, if they are going to have to overpay for someone, it would be someone like Realmuto.

      Liked by 1 person

  28. Tell me on what planet is a 215 hitting catcher is worth 15million a year. I would bet you can find defensive catcher all thru the minors who can hit 215 with little power for under 5 million. He was paid on his previous good yr. Anti e who knows baseball, saw his decline, expect DD. I think right now Fisher might be our best pitching prospect. Pls no gage wood. He has shown that his fast all is very hittable

    Like

    1. That’s an easy question to answer, Realmuto is not worth $15M a year. He’s not worth $10M a year when his current WAR is 0.4. DD was bargaining with himself when he gave Realmuto 3/45.

      Salvador Perez, the only peer to Relamuto in terms of bat and defense, got 2/25 for his age 36 and 37 season. Perez was coming off a 0.5 WAR season at age 35.

      Now Realmuto was coming off his age 34 season with 2.5 WAR. But everybody and their mother knew it wasn’t going to last. Not only that, you saw Perez struggle with the bat at age 35. At best, Realmuto should have gotten 2/30. Giving him that extra year was ridiculous. It’s exactly when Raul Ibanez got that extra year from Ruben Amaro, and not surprisingly, Ibanez absolutely stunk his 3rd year.

      Liked by 1 person

  29. Harper since the Phils got Arraez:

    13 games, .310/.532/.429 for a .961 OPS
    62 plate appearances, 20 BB, 10 K

    Those are elite numbers

    Like

  30. There’s this narrative that Realmuto has fallen off a cliff, and I’m not sure that’s true. Mostly his BABIP (.321 in 2025, and .255 in 2026) is worse. He’s hitting a few more line drives this year than last, although his hard-hit ball rate is down (though still about league average, 47th percentile). Here are some other metrics:

    BB%: 6.4% in 2025, 7.4% in 2026

    K%: 23.5% in 2025, 21.2% in 2026

    BsR (base running runs above average): 0.7 in 2025, 1.1 in 2026

    xBA (expected Batting Average*): .253 in 2025, .256 in 2026

    Bat speed average: 72.0 mph in 2025, 73.3 mph in 2026

    Sprint speed average: 28.4 mph in 2025, 28.2 mph in 2026

    Pop Time average: 1.86 seconds in 2025, 1.85 seconds in 2026

    It’s hard to see a massive physical decline in those last three measures.

    *if you’re wondering, xBA is described by AI as follows:

    “Expected batting average (xBA) measures a hitter’s skill and quality of contact over a season by estimating how often their batted balls should have become hits, removing the random influence of defense.

    What it Measures

    Quality of Contact: It looks at the exit velocity (how hard the ball is hit) and launch angle (the vertical angle at which the ball is hit) of every batted ball.

    Historical Probability: Each batted ball is compared to historical MLB data to see how often similar balls turned into hits.

    Speed Factor: For weakly hit or topped balls, it factors in the batter’s seasonal sprint speed.

    Complete Profile: Real-world strikeouts are added to the equation alongside the average of all expected outcomes on balls in play.”

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Wow – that’s great work by you. Great! So he’s really exactly the same guy he was last year and has just hit in bad luck. I stand (somewhat) corrected!

      Like

  31. I would never trust stats . He is a 227 hitter, 8 home runs obp 289. All the stats in world can’t prove to any one who watches him it’s bad luck. Did you eat h him swing a bat? He is pathetic. He lost whatever offense he had. How in God’s name can anyone defend his offense. It’s crazy.

    Like

    1. The best defense of him is that he calls an elite game and pitchers love throwing to him. In general, catcher is the one position where its really fine to have a poor offensive player if he handles the staff well and plays good defense. I think the contract is ridiculous, but i dont get mad at him the way i do other players; his job is to help the elite pitchers be elite pitchers, as long as he does that im ok with any offensive production being gravy.

      Bohm is the exact opposite. Dombrowski is going to use this 3 game stretch as a reason to extend him lmao

      But that is a major problem with the organization: i am actively rooting against Bohm the rest of the season because I dont want DD to get any wild ideas about an extension. And any time you are actively rooting against players because you don’t trust the talent evaluators at the top, thats a problem

      Like

      1. I agree that defense is the most important thing.

        On offense, he’s walking more, striking out less, and his bat speed is up compared to last year. Do I think he’s GOOD? No, he wasn’t really a good hitter last year. Do I think he’s been a little unlucky, and that he could hit .250 the rest of the way, yes.

        Also, compared to Marchan and Stubbs at the plate, he’s Johnny Bench.

        Like

      2. I don’t ever root against our guys even if they frustrate me extensively. That said I don’t believe there is anything to worry about with Bohm getting some type of LTC here.

        Like

    2. You would never trust stats but you’re using stats to say he’s bad? Interesting.

      He’s not what he used to be with the bat, but he’s also been unlucky. Both things can be true. Realistically, he’s a below average hitter (as opposed to the downright bad one his average and OBP suggest). But you take that from an good defensive catcher that your pitchers love. Especially when he’s one of the most accurate ABS challengers in all of baseball (and THE best when it comes to successes over expected by catchers).

      What it comes down to is he’s better than our other options, and he makes our pitchers better. Demonstrably so. Why do I care that he’s making more than he should be? He’s not blocking anyone. There weren’t better options in free agency. And there’s no one that we realistically could have traded for that would have been an upgrade (based on the catchers who HAVE been traded and what their returns were).

      Like

    3. rocco..shame Louis Arraez cannot give him tips on a two-strike approach. The leg kick probably is something he needs to make an adjustment on. The again, at age 35, you cannot teach old dogs new tricks.

      Like

    4. The criticism of JT is fair but if you want the Phillies to act or behave like other franchises you’re rooting for the wrong team.

      They have always been reluctant to see certain players walk. And despite all the stats that say he isn’t worth it he is a fan favorite if you go to the games.

      We’re here in our little echo chamber but at the bank things aren’t looked at in the way they are here. My hypothesis anyway.

      And there is nothing to say at some point in the last 2 years he can’t be traded.

      Like

  32. Last thing, here’s Realmuto’s BA and xBA the last five seasons:

    2022: BA .276 xBA .273

    2023: BA .252 xBA .249

    2024: BA .266 xBA .264

    2025: BA .257 xBA .253

    2026: BA .217 xBA .256

    So every year the batting average and expected batting average are really, really close — most years a hitter isn’t really lucky or unlucky — except for this year. I dunno, you can think it’s some kind of nerd statgeek conspiracy to justify the Realmuto contract or something . . .

    Like

      1. Romus did you see ,it was bad luck. My head is spinning bad luck. With that logic.DD was great , only bad luck stopped him

        Like

    1. Dan & Westcoast …… I’m of the opinion, and I haven’t come to a complete conclusion yet, but will at season’s end ……. ABS has had an impact on everyone. JT seems to do a pretty good job on the D side with challenges, etc.

      On the O side there possibly has been some adjusting. Another thing, especially with catchers, is the physical beating they take and what impact that has on their game. I am in awe of JT’s ability to take the beating and keep on ticking. So, as the statistics pretty much say ……. he’s still the same guy ….. expensive perhaps …….. but what choice was there …….. Marchan, Stubbs ?? Nah, I don’t think so!

      Like

      1. I don’t think the Phillies were serious about looking at FA catchers and Realmuto knew it. It was either sign him or roll with Marchan/Stubbs.

        Liked by 1 person

    2. If you had a crystal ball before the season that gave you JT’s number’s from today (including OPS, WAR, BA, xBA), would you still have been willing to give him 3/45?

      Like

      1. In that vacuum probably not but in an expanded view given how bad Marchan and Stubbs performed and how some of the availble FA catching unfolded I think probably yes…

        Like

    1. If he keeps raking like that next season…..he could be the youngest player in Phillie history to be at Jersey Shore by this time next season….quick stop in the FSL, then CLW for a few months then JS…as an 18 year old. If that were to happen he may need a chaperone.

      Like

    2. When they signed Renteria, I was overwhelmed by the reviews and description of his abilities and thought to myself “finally, this could be THE GUY” and he has done nothing since but affirm my suspicions. If he continues on this trajectory, he could become the best position player prospect I can ever recall this team having since I started following the team in the early 1990s – Rolen, Rollins and Utley all became great players, but they were not among the best prospects in baseball – Renteria could become a top 10 prospect on this trajectory by sometime next year. We will see, but there’s every reason to be super excited about Renteria right now.

      Like

      1. I take that back – I think Rolen probably was among the top prospects in baseball (and, at one point, so was Dom Brown, but he was never a prodigy superstar like Renteria might become).

        Like

  33. Comparison between two hitters, both catchers. Which one would you choose?

    Player A: 18.3% K rate, 5.1% BB rate, 89.5 mph average EV, 40.6% hard hit rate, 24.8% line drive rate

    Player B: 21.2% K rate, 7.4% BB rate, 89.6 mph average EV, 40.7% hard hit rate, 26.3% line drive rate

    Who do you like based on the above?

    Player A is a bit faster, with an average sprint speed of 28.8 mph, whereas Player B has an average sprint speed of 28.2 mph. On the other hand, Player A has a worse pop time, with an average of 1.91 seconds, versus Player B with an average of 1.85 seconds.

    Like

    1. They might seem pretty similar. Player A is 25-year-old JT Realmuto in 2016, and Player B is 35-year-old JT Realmuto in 2026.

      Like

      1. You may need to explain the WAR difference between the ’16 and ’26 JT…..2.6 vs 0.04 respectively. Then there is also the OPS+…111 vs 70.

        The peripherals may be similar but the resulting final is so different.

        Like

        1. Here is the real kicker. According to mlb he is 32 in framing pitches.he isn’t rated too ten catcher either. Put that with his lack of offense. Man did they screw up with that deal.

          Like

    1. The ones I have hope on are still aways off…..maybe Fisher, or one of the three Asians….Pan, Park or Ho…..and one of my favs has always been big lefty Mavis Graves…..then there is the transfer to LSU, RHP Sheerin. But .who knows right now.

      Like

    1. His arsenal seems polished already and his command is decent. He’s giving me some Jose Berrios vibes which isn’t a bad thing. I think his fastball (94-96) will limit his ceiling but if he becomes a 3/4 pitcher, I think the Phillies will take that.

      Like

    2. I definitely want to believe that our FO knew they had some depth behind Marquez…

      After all they get paid a lot more than I do to know such things LOL.

      Like

    1. It was suggested by Mayo and Callis that Wood could be a bulk reliever behind either Painter or Nola and I think that makes sense.

      Like

      1. I seriously doubt this. With the inevitable lockout coming, any minor league player on the 40 will not be able to participate in the minor league season. Unfortunately, that will include Moises Chace. Wood is not a finished product so letting him be at Lehigh for 2027 would be much better for his development.

        Like

        1. I believe they sad he would not lose his status if called up for one of the expanded 2 roster spots. I could be wrong…

          Like

  34. SSS, but McFarlane will definitely need to bring down his 6.2 walk rate. He has a live arm and I think long term, he’ll be better than Seth Johnson.

    Like

      1. rocco…LOL. He has recovered it appears form the small head tendon tear to his bicep…..sometimes referred to as a Popeye arm….bicep bulges a bit. The surgery was 10 months ago. and the lefty could be a difference maker if the old Yankee Nestor shows up.

        Liked by 1 person

  35. Last thing I remember about Cortez is that after the Yankees traded him to the Brewers he came back to Yankee Stadium and the bombers hit like 5 homers against him in 2 innings. He gives up a lot of long balls.

    Like

  36. Heredia is having a breakout season, wondering why is he not ranked higher and what his ceiling

    Like

    1. He has a brutal K/BB rate that will be exposed at upper levels, plus Reading is a hitters park that always inflates batters’ numbers.

      Like

      1. He has good home/away and R/L splits. His K rate is getting into an OK (not great) range for a power hitter, but his walk rate is abysmally low. If he keeps improving and can get his walk rate up a little bit next year at LHV, I think we might have something.

        Like

  37. totals

    • Record: 3–1
    • 23⅔ innings
    • 22 hits
    • 6 earned runs
    • 8 walks
    • 26 strikeouts
    • 2.28 ERA
    • 1.27 WHIP

    above is Aaron Nola’s stats over his last four starts. Rightfully so we’ve all been critical of him, but this is a terrific turnaround and I for one give him some props and hope he can keep it going.

    Liked by 3 people

      1. No baseballs bouncing off the front porch, don’t need the Eagles helmet on when you sit out ……. life is good!

        Like

    1. My quick take: I’m happy for him, as Im a Nola Phan… I see some changes in his attack plan, but his control has ticked up too. I wonder how much we can attribute to Realmuto vs Nola himself? That, and the elephant in the room is ease of which an MLB player can take him deep. That’s not gonna change unless the mph return in addition to the other tweaks. Gonna be nail bitters in the playoffs, so take your heart medication everyone. Hopefully the can be the Phillies version of Andy Petite, who always seemed to step up in the playoffs regardless of a poor regular season…. at least that’s the way I remember it

      Like

      1. Tac, why do you think he’s been so bad with homers this year? Here’s his average fastball velocity, average EV of batted balls, and percentage of fly balls that have been homers, last three years:

        2024: 92.6 mph average fastball; 88.1 mph average EV; 3.7% of fly balls were homers

        2025: 2024: 91.8 mph average fastball; 89.0 mph average EV; 4.5% of fly balls were homers

        2026: 2024: 92.4 mph average fastball; 88.2 mph average EV; 5.2% of fly balls were homers

        Why so bad in 2026? Maybe the challenge system has forced him to be in the middle of the plate more?

        What the stat nerds would say is the difference in homers between 2024 and 2026 — very close average fastball velocity and super close average EV between those two years — is luck. But posters on here don’t like luck as an explanation.

        Like

        1. That’s easy, unless the hitter is Vlad Guerrero Sr, most HRs are from pitches left in the middle of the zone. Nola is being squeezed by ABS so he’s leaving too many hittable pitches. And since his velocity is slower than most RH pitchers, hitters can really hammer Nola’s mistake pitches..

          Like

    1. Harper, who famously moved from the outfield to first in 2023 (to initially good reviews) was having a down year on defense even before this was incorporated. While he’s been fine at scoops, it’s been more about the non-scooping aspect of this

      …..we all saw this too.

      Like

  38. Can you sign 12 y/o’s yet? Clemente Sevilla Pichardo, a 12-year-old pitcher for the Nicaragua Little League Team, absolutely dominated in his first start of the 20-team tournament on Wednesday. He threw 5.2 innings and struck out 12 batters – a record performance.

    Like

    1. I watched a little of the Canada/South Korea game and it got funny when I started yelling at the tv, yelling at the kids what to do. “The hitter is hanging over the plate, you can bust him inside.” “There’s no way that kid can get to a high fastball.” “Your swing is way too long, you need to shorten it.”

      As a coach, you have to manage making the game fun but at the same time, giving them instructions to succeed. I don’t think I can do that.

      Liked by 1 person

  39. Stott and Marsh could be signing LTCs shortly…..at least before Dec 1st…..Alec may be on the outside looking in when it comes to free agency.Though the other night, post game, Stott mentioned how he and Bohm have been together for 6/7 years now…….hmmm, is he dropping a hint for DD to offer Bohm?

    Like

    1. I think they need to be careful about all of these guys. Organizations sink into oblivion when they give mediocre players big, long-term contracts. How did that Nick Castellanos deal work out? How about Taijuan Walker?

      Bohm should be gone – he’s not a very good player and might not be worth what they are paying him now. Stop the recency bias and move on.

      Marsh has another year before he becomes a free agent – they should wait out that year and see how things play out. He’s a good player, but not so good that they should be signing him now, especially since I believe overall contract values will actually go down after the new CBA.

      Stott is a good player and retaining him would be nice. But he’s not a star and they shouldn’t give him a star contract in value or length. They should sign him if the years and price are right.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. For Stott and Marsh I wouldn’t mind signing them now if the price is right. But I imagine neither will want to give a discount at this point, so wait it out and see in that case. I like them both, but they’re both replaceable.

        And yeah, Bohm should have his bags packed the second the Phillies finish their final game of the season.

        Like

      1. His WHIP is actually better this year than his college days so clearly he’s learned something while pitching for the Phillies. At this point, Bowker’s performance will tell you when he’s ready to go into the bullpen.

        Like

Comments are closed.