139 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion (2/2/2026)”

1. Sal Agostinelli interview on Renteria.

   https://www.mlb.com/news/phillies-scouts-on-recent-signee-francisco-renteria?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

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   1. Interesting read. Im going to say … Sal thinks he’s the best player he’s seen this young. He really puts him ahead of Miller, Crawford, Escobar… he just doesn’t want to risk having it go to his head.

      I’d say Painter has that 6th tool they talk about – makeup. He’s mature beyond his years, or its a good act at minimum

      its crazy they are scouting these kids at 13/14. I better get my boy on the move!

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      1. It’s funny (and, frankly, a bit unfair), but pretty much the last guy I want to hear from about how good an outfield prospect is going to be is Sal Agostinelli. He was the leader of international scouting for the Phillies for like 25 or 30 years and I don’t think, during that time, we signed even ONE outfield prospect that became a first division regular, let alone a star (Sal’s track record with middle infielders, pitchers and catchers is much better). He could have signed guys almost randomly and done as well. So while I’m also very psyched about Renteria, who does sounds like a great prospect, Sal, of all people, telling me that does nothing for me.

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         1. I was thinking the same about good Ol Sal. However tools are about all you can look at with someone so young but coachability is right there with it.

            The fact that his dad had a 16 year MLB Career doesn’t hurt either.

            We’ll all be watching how he handles each of his levels as he moves through the system.

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2. Jim – If you can do me a solid, my schedule is wide open from Feb 11th to Mar 26th… Just saying… if the club has any unused “invites” … im happy to show them what I still got! In this day of “specializing” .. im sure I can at least be the mop up pitcher, pull double duty as the clubhouse vibe guy. I got awesome playlists! Appreciated!

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   1. Agreed! I can give the club unlimited “innings” and will be great in the clubhouse.

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      1. You guys are both going after the “Big Bucks”! You both have to have an ERA less than 15.75 to get an invite. Stubbs set the high water mark in 2024.🤨

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         1. It’s tough to beat that ERA… but… I think my playlists more than make up for the difference. That clubhouse would be bouncing off the walls with my 80s list!

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         2. Be nice Ruff. It is almost Spring. 15 ERA sounds better. LOL

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3. I don’t think this has been mentioned yet but the Athletic had a really good piece on Crawford working intensively with Eric Davis on CF defense. Very educational both about Crawford (great attitude) and CF defense in general.

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   1. Was Eric Davis a center fielder? I thought left fielder

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      1. Majority of his career games played were as a center fielder. Played mostly left and right from age 34 on.

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   2. v1 posted a link to the story in the previous thread just before it got closed, so most people didn’t get to see it.

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   3. Eric Davis was one of the most physically talented players who ever played in the big leagues. But, due in large part to injuries, you never quite knew what you were going to get in a given year, but when he was good and healthy, he could play like a Hall of Famer. He was blazing fast, could field, tons of power, good hit tool, great plate discipline, stole bases – everything. But even with all the injuries and inconsistencies, he still put up almost 35 WAR, which isn’t too shabby.

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4. Fangraphs have projected that the Braves will win the division followed by the Mets then Phillies. They are only giving the Phillies a 4.5% chance of winning the World Series but a 65.7% chance of making the playoffs.

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   1. Fangraph is good . Think Marlins could get rhird

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5. Not sure if this was posted before, but a deep dive into the Phillies farm by BA:

   the link is taking long to load,but seems like an interesting watch.

   7 days old ,title is :

   Philadelphia Phillies Top Prospects Deep Dive.

   4,900 views… so I guess most of us have seen it, but just in case not.

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6. I went to the Complex Tuesday. Aaron Nola threw the first pitch of my 2026 “spring” training.

   

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7. Dave and Rob watching Nola’s bullpen. There were also about 20 Phillies’ scouts in attendance.

   

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   1. Is this normal that there are so many eyes on Aaron Nola? I understand that people are anxious to see him rebound from last season but it’s not like he’s going anywhere without his permission.

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      1. A long cold off season will get me every time LOL. Two weeks into ST and I’ll be completely over it…

         This year maybe a little different with the WBC happening simultaneously. I tried watching some of that Caribbean season and its just awful baseball.

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      2. Our scouts. They are in town for meetings. DD had just arrived from the airport. Was wheeling his bag in to his office and stopped to watch Nola and talk with RT. Impeccable timing. Normal viewers this early would be me, Steve Potter, a couple of other fans and 3-4 autograph seekers with maybe a handful of Phillies’ staff inside the fence.

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   2. Jim, my wife and I are in Clearwater this coming weekend. Where is the best place to go just to get a feel for the facilities, etc and maybe see some players getting work in?

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      1. There are about 60 minor leaguers attending a high-performance camp at the Complex and maybe another dozen or so guys on rehab. The early reports, like Nola, usually work out in left field on Ashburn Field. Pitchers like Nola will throw on the half-field in front of the stadium. Position players will do their stuff inside the stadium out of our sight for another week or so. Pack something heavy, we are expecting another “cold” spell this week or next.

         So far, the high-performance guys are taking fielding practice and BP in the mornings between nine and noon. Pitchers throw long toss during the same time. They throw bullpens every 2nd or 3rd day. They have the weekends off.

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8. This is great, thanks for the pics. For anyone who has never been to ST and who loves prospect watching, Clearwater is one of the most enjoyable experiences you can ever have. While it’s not quite as easy to see all the action and interact with the players as it once was (they have roped off certain areas fans used to be able to access – especially where you can watch bullpen sessions – that’s something you really can no longer see) you can still get a really good view of all the workouts and games. The facility is very compact where the games are held. 4 fields around a smallish (size of a row house) central building – where you can walk from one game to the next in a matter of 30 seconds (at most). I don’t think I am ever more happy or more relaxed than I am watching ST workouts and scrimmages. It’s the best and if you haven’t gone, I encourage you to go – they don’t charge (or didn’t as of last year). Try to combine it with a game as the stadium is maybe 300 yards away from the facility. Instant happiness.

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   1. One day I will get there…

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      1. i am going next yr. My mom said it’s okay, if romus watches me

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         1. Figures you’d go during a lockout. 🙂

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            1. Jim and Rocco. That is really funny. My only time to Spring Training was either 72 or 73. Whichever it was the gates were locked. It was before we got married so had to be one of those 2. Maybe I can line up a trip for next season. That would be my luck. But I am really happy for all of you who get the opportunity to go and have some fun, enjoy the weather and some Phillies baseball. My congrats to all of you. Plus, Jim thanks for keeping this site going. I enjoy it a lot.

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      2. It’s pretty low key. If you can find an affordable flight, the rest does not need to be too pricey (easy for me to say, I know) – just a hotel somewhere in the general area (tons of options) and a rental car, and spring training is yours to enjoy!

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         1. The flight are high now. I am taking a uber

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9. I grew up in Clearwater and played my ‘Babe Ruth’ games at the Carpenter Complex. Pretty sure Rocco umped first base. I hit my only dinger in practice there. Used to ride my bike down to Jack Russell stadium for spring training games.

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   1. Did you ever see Jim’s mansion on Gulf Blvd? It’s beautiful

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      1. I wouldn’t live on Gulf-to-Bay if it was free.

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10. ESPN put out their Phillies top 10. I hope Rincones hits but man, he made a big jump in their rankings. Other than that, no surprises other than they ranked Renteria 8th. First list I’ve seen with him included. Seems about right. Same top 10 minus Abel amd Tait and Renteria and Rincones included

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    1. I think Rincones was 4 because of his proximity to the bigs. He has power and he can take a walk but you worry about his contact ability and his defense. He’s probably a backup/platoon OF to start so it will be interesting to see if he will be able to make the team out of ST. Even though Rincones will soon be 25, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he starts the year at Lehigh. Best case, he rakes at Lehigh, makes his debut in the summer, and in the mix for RF in 2027.

       I think the top 10 for the Phillies is accurate.

       Outside of the top 10, the lack of depth is concerning. Chace is recovering from TJ, Burkholder and Saltiban both got hurt and weren’t the same afterwards.

       Right now, it’s hard to see if any of these guys outside of the top 10 will take a step forward and boost their prospect profile.

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       1. Barber was named scouting director following the 2019 season. Abel I guess you can say was a good pick in 2020 if you use the trade for Duran.

          2021 you might say should be his first real draft and Painter maybe rewards him this year but the rest of that draft was really bad.

          2022 again maybe he gets rewarded with Crawford but again the rest of of it yikes. Aside from maybe McFarlane that draft is pretty much done.

          2023 you have Miller and I liked Klassen but they used him in a trade for a closer that failed miserably in the Mets playoffs.

          2024 gives us Nori who is showing signs of life but how do you feel about the rest of it?

          No point in talking about 25 yet but Wood is a high risk high reward guy.

          Not pointing any fingers at Barber as he is only a piece to the overall puzzle. Just saying overall our domestic drafting since he assumed the role has been lackluster/mediocre IMO at best.

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          1. Drafting doesn’t seem that hard but it really is, that’s why FA exists. It has been mentioned many times that if you can get 1 starter (out of 20 drafted players) in a draft then the GM is doing his job. Anything more than that is a bonus.

             Ask yourself this, how many elite players are there in any given draft? Maybe 5 if you’re lucky? And most of these guys are drafted in the first 5 rounds (but mostly in the first round).

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             1. Ahhh I see what you did there raising the bar to elite level players…JK

                No I get it. Just saying PP has a long history now of covering drafts and regimes who drafted them and we haven’t always afforded those regimes any level of kindness or patience.

                Also I have never really put drafting on the GM. Managing the MLB team and what is already in the system is a mammoth undertaking and responsibility in and of itself.

                Drafts themselves really come down to a pool of guys in that department pushing information upwards to the GM.

                Looking at a teams ability to draft well is more a holistic venture than it is giving one guy the credit or noose.

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                1. Drafting is ultimately the GM’s responsibility, perhaps not in any given year, but over a period of time. If that isn’t going well, the GM needs to change horses either with the folks who do the drafting, the folks who develop talent or both and when he changes horses, it’s up to him to select the correct replacements.

                   On the Phillies and the draft, 65-75 percent of the value of the draft is how you do in the first round or first two rounds. As I explained the other day, this is about drafting future stars. If, every year, you drafted a future first division player or a mid-rotation or better starter and another player or two who had complimentary big league roles (like an Orion Kerkering), then you did pretty well. In the last 5/6 years, I think the Phillies have done very well in the first round – the best they’ve done since the Rollins/Rolen/Hamels/Utley days. But like those days, the drafts have been somewhat shallow after the first round. So, knowing they have done well at the top of the draft, so far, I’d give the Barber administration about a B, and I’m a pretty tough grader.

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                2. Drafting is hard but the GM will always be the scapegoat if there are too many misses, and fair or not, that’s part of their job.

                   Every year when the draft rolls around, people here make their first round predictions for the Phillies. I would bet that most predicted players haven’t lived up to expectations or failed miserably. That’s the nature of the MLB draft.

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11. Moffo – Don’t depend on Romus to keep an eye on you. Once he starts focusing on baseball, you are going to be like the kid in “Home Alone”.

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    1. That kid being Kevin McCallister. Who is, unfortunately, mourning the loss of his (movie) mother this week (actress Catherine O’Hara).

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12. Dan K – A beautiful woman inside and out.

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13. Matt Winkleman, who has been less enthusiastic about Crawford than some, does a deep dive and comes away more optimistic:

    https://philliesminorthoughts.com/a-deeper-look-at-justin-crawford/

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14. Thanks, Robin, for sending that “breath of fresh air” with Matt’s analysis. That is a welcome report to see.

    On the comments above regarding the Phillies drafts – Steve Potter, on this site, gave a very thorough rundown of which Phillies drafted players are in the bigs and with what teams within the last 3-4 days. What it shows is that there are a lot more players with other teams probably drafted in rounds 3-9 than one would think. So to the old statement that if you can get one player from each draft makes it a successful draft – Mr. Potter’s study sort of shows that – however, those draft picks just don’t play for Phillies any longer.

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15. Still think there must be some high stakes poker games being played by the number of decent pitchers remaining out there in FA. Gallen, Bassitt, Quintana, Giolito, Jon Gray, Buehler, Verlander, and Valdez. In the BP group – Nick Martinez, Coulombe, Scott Barlow, T Kahnle…

    Phillies desperately need a backup starter to fill in for Painter, Wheels, maybe Nola etc. I get Valdez and Gallen require draft compensation and are not appealing , but the rest don’t and if you would experiment with Buehler around the playoffs – why not take him on as the backup pitcher – unless these guys are looking to have bonafide spots ? Anyway – some teams are going to get a reasonable pitcher for a minimal investment.

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    1. I can see the Phillies adding a SP for depth. On the Phillies side, I wonder if there is a big exhale that Valdez went to the Tigers, and not the Mets. 38mil, or 76mil was a cost the Mets said no to. Interesting, DET & BAL imo are stepping closer to the Front of the AL. The NL imo is still stronger.

       We need to decode if it’s better to spend the 54mil (CBA pentalties included) now or at the deadline. Mostly likely it’s a combo. I say the Phils add what is consideredvthe best of the cheapest arm left once the market is set for these guys… shorter deal too… then save the rest for the deadline

       Something else to think about – DD has generally always taking big swings on trading prospects. He hasnt really done that yet. My guess is because of Middleton’s never rebuilding request. Now that those stars are about here.. the offseaon seems a bit more clear. Not siging bader over Crawford. Bichette still works in this plan because you likely trade bohm or Stott to fit in Miller’s eventual promotion. Im sure DD would blow his top if they decided to let him trade those guys now …after holding them for so long. Painter/Crawford for Crochet is one deal that might haunt them if those guys don’t pan out.. but i think in the end the Phils FO wins that no deal

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       1. What $54M? Are you referring to the money they would have spent on Bichette? If you are, part of that money ($15M plus incentives) was used to sign Realmuto once the Bichette deal fizzled. If that’s not what you’re referring to, from where is this approximately $27M (before penalties) coming.

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          1. Jim, nice catch. Yes, I refereeing to the money that was seemingly there for Bichette, the 27mil… but really it’s 54mil because of the CBA pentalties. I didn’t take out Realmuto’s number, so I guess the reworked number is 12mil, but really 24mil that it will cost the Phillies. I know the FO said it was one or the other, but I really wonder that they wouldn’t have bought him back. I’m sensing some bluffing going on there, but that’s my speculation.

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             1. It wasn’t a bluff. They were moving on to their Plan B when Bichette changed his mind, and they had to do a hard pivot to recover. They were fortunate that Realmuto didn’t hold a gun to their collective heads for more than he got. BTW, while disappointed, I don’t blame Bichette for changing his mind. $42M per year for 3 years with 2 opt outs is an offer you can’t refuse.

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                1. The $12M that appeared to be available might also have been a mirage since it included savings from trading a player to acquire a catcher. The amount saved depended on whom the traded player was to make room for Bichette (we all assumed Bohm, but that’s not certain).

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       2. I think this season is mostly going to be about getting a feel for Painter and Crawford in the MLB and then Miller and Escobar’s ability coming more into focus.

          If Bohm for sure is gone next season and then Stott possibly the year after plus salary relief that is coming they will want to know who and what area of the team they need to address in FA.

          If Miller sticks at SS you can slide Turner to 2B and Escobar can play 3B or 2B.

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          1. ST games haven’t started yet and I feel comfortable saying that Bohm won’t be a Phillie in 2027.

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             1. The 27 FA Class is weak on position players but pretty heavy on pitching.

                I would think based on projections they would really want a star corner OF if they can find one.

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          2. Turner isn’t moving until he’s no longer at least an average fielder at shortstop. It’s not happening anytime soon because Turner was quite good in the field last year due to his incredibly hard work. Miller will need to slot in somewhere else. The obvious position, at least to start, is third base. He might flip over to second down the line.

             I think there really is a chance, based on everything I’ve been hearing, that Miller could be legitimate contributor at the big league level this year. Let’s see how he’s doing by the end of May/middle of June.

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    2. A backup starter? Where will the Phillies stash this backup starter? On the 26 man roster?

       There’s multiple reasons why these pitchers are still on the market: QO, price too high, still want to start.

       If you’re lucky, they get desperate and they’re willing to sign a minor league deal. But I think a lot of them are just waiting for starters to get hurt.

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    3. Last year we picked up Buehler for September, and he was above-average. Guy has a relationship with Cotham, would seem like a logical fit.

       Then again, we’re dealing with an org who gives 35+ Catchers $15m. But on the sunny side, Phils are some much easier on the eye than the Eagles offseason.

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16. Does anybody realize that Alec Bohm has a .305/.354/.507 split against lefties? I would love to see if he could just be a platoon bat at 3B, or see if he could handle LF? But that would probably lead to pouting and tears and his numbers would fall.

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    1. The Phillies are paying Bohm $10.2M which is pricey for a platoon bat. Not only that, who’s the LH bat at 3B? Bohm at LF? Nobody wants to see that, it would be Casty all over again: Casty couldn’t handle 3B and then moved to the OF where his defense has been subpar. It also happened to Ryan Braun but at least Braun could rake (with PEDs).

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       1. I realize it’s a little late in the process to try and find a LH platoon bat to play 3B, so perhaps just run a Bohm/Sosa combo out there. And Bohm playing LF is a total shot in the dark. I was just presenting a “what if” type of scenario.

          But I don’t think $10M on Bohm as a platoon bat is pricey. Not when we’re famous for giving out $10M contracts to complete unknowns three offseasons in a row.

          What I would realistically like to see is if Starling Marte would be interested in playing some part-time LF for us. He always seems to hit well against us, so for $2M, I’d like to see if he would well with us. Maybe even stick it to the Mets a little bit. I just don’t have a ton of faith in Otto Kemp.

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17. Well Tigers getting Valdez for 3/$115 is fairly aggressive. Skubal’s arb case isn’t settled yet unless I missed something but I think the team is asking for $19 while Skubal’s camp is asking for $32.

    Pretty nice hedge by them perhaps to trade Skubal if the right offer comes along.

    Griffin and McGonigle are both pretty exciting up the middle prospects to build around.

    No juggernauts in that division from their POV the bar is pretty low to remain a playoff team.

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18. Well Tigers getting Valdez for 3/$115 is fairly aggressive. Skubal’s arb case isn’t settled yet unless I missed something but I think the team is asking for $19 while Skubal’s camp is asking for $32.

    Pretty nice hedge by them perhaps to trade Skubal if the right offer comes along.

    Griffin and McGonigle are both pretty exciting up the middle prospects to build around.

    No juggernauts in that division from their POV the bar is pretty low to remain a playoff team.

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    1. The Tigers should be asking for the moon for Skubal but you have to know that Skubal will be looking for something like 10/400 when he becomes a FA. Not a lot of teams can make an investment like that.

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19. Now’s the time for the Dodgers to swoop in and trade for Skubal.

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20. I am thinking of this season. As a guy who is always upbeat, and positive about the phillies. I don’t know if I am be so positive this yr. Trying to keep you guys excited about this year. Like I always do, but it’s hard.

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21. Jim, Any news on Beltre and Oviedo, who were mentioned that the Phillies were after in the International Signings? They didn’t sign. Did they use up too much money fro Renteria? I still can’t get back into the site to make a comment. Thank you, Fred

    >

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22. Keith Law out with his Phillies top 20

    Philadelphia Phillies 2026 top 20 prospects: Aidan Miller, Andrew Painter lead the way – The Athletic

    This was his overall view

    “The Philadelphia Phillies’ system starts off with a couple of potential stars, then a couple of other guys with significant upside and then it tails off very quickly into “extra guy” territory — relievers, utility infielders, platoon bats, etc. They had a tough year on the injury front as well, and it wasn’t all injuries to elbows.”

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23. Biggest takeaway for me was he has Keaton Anthony at #15 and see’s him as a fringe ML player at best. Not enough power for 1b and won’t hit for enough average to make up for it.

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    1. That’s exactly right. He’s a contact-first hitting first baseman – limited tools, not “twitchy” at all; little power; no positional flexibility. #15 is really good for him – he wasn’t even drafted, so the fact that he has an outside chance to play big league ball is a big win.

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    2. I have seen him play in person a few time. A few things stand out on Keaton:
       1. He is a big man. His size stands out. He’s thick
       2. He has a beautiful swing and is on plane a lot.
       3. He hits the ball hard (90 mph average EV).
       4. He hits a lot of hard hit line drives. His 33% line drive rate last year is insane. To put that line drive rate in perspective, Luis Arraez has a career 27% line drive rate. Remember, line drives have a BABIP .616.
       5. His swinging strike rate was under 8% last year. He doesn’t swing and miss much.

       As I watched him, I kept thinking, if he could get a little more loft in his line drives many would go out. Again a 33% line drive rate is insanely high. Unheard of.

       I am actually high on Keaton. I like him. I think he has a real chance to be one of those out of nowhere guys who becomes good.

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       1. It’s funny, time has seemingly passed the average power, high average, good on base percentage first baseman by, but, in reality, there’s no reason why someone with that profile could not continue to succeed. Good examples of this back in the day included Dave Magadan (21 WAR), Mark Grace (46 WAR) and, the ultimate example, Keith Hernandez (60 WAR). Unfortunately, unless he could somehow play left field and succeed there (unlikely with all the candidates we already have in left), Anthony has no path forward here at first or DH. A long time ago, a really good, but odd fitting part like Anthony could stick on a big league roster as a pinch hitter and utility player, but that role no longer exists – relievers have replaced that role on the modern big league roster. But could I see a guy like Anthony becoming a second division regular on a team like the Marlins or Rockies? It’s definitely possible.

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          1. Two points here:

             1. It takes elite barrel control to have a 33% line drive rate (32% the year prior as well). that is really off the charts. As a benchmark, the top Line Drive % in MLB over the past 10 seasons was 27.4%. Over the last 10 seasons, here are the top LD% hitters:

             LD% / BABIP / BA / OPS

             1 Harold Castro 27.4% .345 .278 .669

             2 Luis Arraez 26.9% .329 .317 .777

             3 Freddie Freeman 26.8% .344 .307 .929

             4 Domingo Santana 26.6% .354 .259 .798

             5. Joe Mauer 26.2% .328 .283 .762

             6 Donovan Solano 26.0% .353 .289 .754

             7 Eric Sogard25.8% .290 .255 .700

             8 Alex Avila 25.7% .325 .215 .738

             9 Victor Reyes 25.7% .332 .264 .673

             10 Adam Frazier 25.6% .296 .264 .709

             Remember, a line drive has a BABIP of over .600. So if he is able to replicate that in MLB, he will be a good MLB hitter.

             2. However, if he is able to tweak his swing just a little to get more loft, he could become a real power hitter.

             As for position on the Phillies, you are right, he is clearly blocked. But just grading him as a prospect, I have him at either 6 or 7. I am not sold on Nori and definitely not sold on Rincones, Jr. (who is a platoon only). Keaton can hit and he will hit MLB pitching. And he hits the ball hard. I really think that with a little focus he can get a little more loft on his hits and start hitting more homers and fewer doubles.

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             1. I definitely hope you are right – it will be interesting to see what happens. I’ve seen him in person, but not as often as you have. The list you created is also interesting. Usually when you list important stats like this (and, for sure, line drive percentage is important for the reason you mentioned), the list reads like an all-star team. Interestingly (and it really surprised me), this list runs the gamut from nobodies to solid players to superstars. As for elevating the ball, I guess we’ll see too. I am more optimistic about a line drive hitter driving the ball and putting in the air a bit more often than a player suddenly learning plate discipline or greatly improving contract skills. But it will be fun to follow.

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                1. he is blocked at 1B, but it also says he can play RF? Not sure how well … let’s quantify it…. How bad of a LFer would he be? Worse than Schwarber? Same as Schwarber? What about compared to Burrell? LF is seemingly always open on the Phillies …

                   the way I see it …. you got Marsh, Kemp, Sosa, and possibly Anthony fighting for LF one way or the other. You also have an outside chance of Rojas pushing Crawford to LF (super unlikely) or the reshuffling of the players in INF going to LF. Turner,Stott Bohm, Miller… Unlikely, but if the OF replicates the last few years of performance, when Miller proves himself ready someone has to move to LF if not him or get traded. Will see. If Stott is hitting, it makes it a harder decision. All hypotheticals, so hold the tomatoes.

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24. If Anthony ends up being good enough, I don’t see why he’s blocked per say, as they could always give him more time this season in AAA and then bring him up later in the year if he’s raking, he could back up Harper and then if he shows enough, they could opt to have Harper in RF for the ’27 season if there is one and of course Anthony looks good enough to force that move since Harper did say this off-season he would be willing to move off 1B if need be.

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    1. Harper isn’t returning to the OF. He said what he should say, “I’m willing to move if it helps the team “.

       They aren’t moving him to accommodate their 15th ranked prospect. IF Anthony suddenly shows signs of power, he will be traded for a position of need.

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       1. I agree, people should stop wanting Harper to go the OF. Harper is now 33 and the last time he played the majority of his games in the OF, he was 28. And he was a terrible defender in RF, his range was poor and people seemed to forget that he had issues tracking fly balls near the OF wall.

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25. lol is Casty still TBD here, they can’t find anything for that clown and are just going to suck down 20 mil aren’t they

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    1. Strange that they have $30 mil allocated to RF in two RHBs that don’t offer much in an offensive profile for the position. One is a really good defender and the other is not.

       If Garcia replicates his 29 or 30 y/o season it will look like a great move.

       If the Garcia move goes south in the way Merrifield or Kepler did well….

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       1. Yes, situations like this are why long contracts are so scary. It is better to possibly overpay a productive player on a short term contract than to give a contract that is too long and may have dead years. The Castellanos contract is a dead weight contract. They’ve gotten very little from him and it just weighs down payroll and makes everything else more difficult. But it’s a sunk cost so you have to look at the Garcia contract on its own. I literally have no idea what will happen with Garcia, but the Phillies’ one-year contracts for veterans (mostly outfielders and relievers) have been horrendous, almost without fail, even when the contracts seemed like a good idea at the time (I wasn’t down on the Kepler contract at the time, but it didn’t work out). Some of these were bad signings, but some were just bad luck.

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          1. It’s a given that we’ll be revisiting the theme that long contracts are scary for the foreseeable future. The Phillies have plenty of those: Harper, Turner, Nola, Schwarber.

             I’m silently praying that Wheeler will recover because writing off his remaining 2/84 will be brutal.

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26. I know we are Phillies Phans…. But what the heck are the braves doing? Literally nothing it seems like after the Phillies & the Mets.

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    1. According to spotrac, the Braves payroll is 8th (Phillies are 4th). They are trying to pay the least amount of tax possible.

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       1. Those gift contracts are about to expire… and they know it…. How much longer do they have Albies & Acuna for pennies on the dollar? Thats gonna be a rough day for them

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       2. My take is Alex Anthopoulos can get away with that in Atlanta because the fans down there don’t really care like they do up here.

          Braves ownership is a holding company publicly traded on the Nasdaq so my guess is the pressure to spend isn’t like what it might be elsewhere.

          They have always drafted kind of well, scooped up those aging FA’s kind of well and traded pretty well too. They kind of like punching up so to speak.

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27. I know some of you guys are on the older, non video games era…. There is something that caught my eye. I was going to get this game “The Show” for my nephew & son since they both have Nintendo. They can play each other. I’m watching the previews… and it looks like the person who put that together is a Braves fan, because they have player rounding a base, after hitting a homerun, staring a Harper, while Harper has his head down. I don’t think it’s coincidence … these games have features where reinact/recreate the same scenarios…. It peaked my eye… it’d be like a Mets player sliding hard into Utley at second base type of thing .

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    1. Lmao older side, Ro.us knew Moses, old stuff fought in civil war. That’s not old. It ancient

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       1. Ha!
          Maybe you can confirm Rocco…. I’ve heard when Romus goes to the ballpark for throwback jersey night…. He wears his Philadelphia A’s jersey. True?

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       2. Is Romus actually short for Romulus?

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          1. Ronald is his name

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28. The Braves are already putting Spencer Schwellenbach on the 60 day IL. That’s a huge blow.

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    1. I see the NL East as a 2 team race and so do the odds makers. They give the Mets a slight edge. Peralta is a huge win but Alonso and Diaz’s production is not going to be easily overcome by Bichette/Williams.

       For us losing Ranger is pretty big and the unknown of Wheeler is pretty big. I think our BP is much better.

       I like the potential upside of Garcia and I don’t think JT could be any worse offensively than his 2025 91 OPS+. I’d take the over on a 100 OPS+ season from him.

       Pick your poison for either team for a lot to go well or really bad.

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       1. I like Mets, Braves, Marlins, phillies

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29. Just reported, Kris Bryant to 60 Day – has only played 170 in first four years of 7-year / $182M.

    I was one who was bummed when we didn’t sign him, only to pivot to Schwarbs and Casty.

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30. Lindor to have hammate surgery out for 6 weeks – and should effect his year I would think.

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31. Santander of the Blue Jays is out 5-6 Months… could Castellanos fit the bill for a trade?

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32. V1again always talks about how in free agency the most money wins out every time. I think a close second place rule that almost always applies Is guys playing better in a contract year than any other season. I’m going to go ahead right now and predict that Nick Castellanos is going to make us all regret trading him or releasing him before this season as opposed to keeping him and either platooning in left field with marsh or starting in right field instead of signing Garcia. I’m not suggesting Castellanos is going to turn back the clock and hit 310 with 30 home runs and become an average defensive outfielder, but when you look at our roster and who could potentially be batting fourth and who could be playing some of those outfield positions, I think there’s an argument to be made for him being the best option at this point amongst other less desirable options. If the Phillies love Kemp so much which I believe they do I’m pretty surprised that he’s not starting at third base every night with Bohm traded and Sosa as a backup plan in case Kemp doesn’t perform. I really feel like Dombrowski and the organization got way out in front of themselves, declaring him as good as gone long before they knew whether they were gonna be able to make the improvements to this team that they wanted to which they certainly haven’t in terms of putting a big bat behind the big three

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    1. Na…. And if he did….seriously it would be super annoying since he has been so below as advertised. His defense really is terrible.. Once you see Garica out there, it’s going to be very apparent. Im thinking Garica can slight best Castellanos numbers,but have a positive defensive war. I think Kemp out plays Marsh for LF.

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       1. For Kemp the worry might be that he only gets to play against lefties and that isn’t a lot of pitchers plus the ones that are out there can be really tough on both RHB and LHB…

          For a young player trying to establish themselves in the league getting only partial playing time and trying to make the most of their limited opportunities can have a very adverse effect on their play.

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    2. I do think that there is something psychological that happens to a player in the offseason before his walk year. I think that he trains harder knowing that there is bigger risk. I think that you are right.

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    3. I think Casty’s issues stem from a breakdown in his ability to get to velocity. His fast twitch abilities are gone. He needs to start really early to catch up to it which is why you see him look so bad on the off speed away.

       He can’t keep his hands inside the ball thus he casts them out and you get this long terrible swing. Sometimes when he guesses right it looks ok.

       I’ve watched him for a long time because I always liked him. When he was in Detroit hanging around Miggy and JD Martinez you could see the influence. He could let the ball get deep and still catch up to it and drive it the other way.

       You haven’t seen that the last few seasons. You see him lose his front side which creates a lot of flailing and weak contact.

       Some call it bat speed or fast hands or whatever. Whatever you call it he doesn’t have it anymore.

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33. I try to keep things simple. These things are good:

    • Low swinging strike rate
    • Hitting the ball hard consistently, so Average EV instead of Max EV
    • Line drive rate
    • High walk rate
    • Low K rate (which is highly correlated to low swinging strike rate)

    There are 24 players in MLB that have a 90 Ave EV and a swinging strike rate of sub 10%. They are:

    # Name SwStr% EV

    1 Maikel Garcia 5.40% 91.3

    2 Alec Bohm 6.30% 90.8

    3 Yandy Díaz 6.90% 93

    4 Gleyber Torres 6.90% 90

    5 Juan Soto 7.00% 93.8

    6 Mike Yastrzemski 7.10% 90.8

    7 Lars Nootbaar 7.60% 91.3

    8 Alejandro Kirk 7.70% 91.1

    9 Trent Grisham 7.70% 91.1

    10 Vinnie Pasquantino 7.90% 90.9

    11 Alec Burleson 8.00% 91

    12 Kyle Tucker 8.00% 90.1

    13 Taylor Ward 8.20% 90.1

    14 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 8.40% 92

    15 Ben Rice 8.50% 93.2

    16 Brice Turang 8.50% 91.1

    17 Paul Goldschmidt 8.60% 90.4

    18 Seiya Suzuki 8.90% 91.3

    19 Bo Bichette 8.90% 91

    20 Ketel Marte 9.00% 90.8

    21 Francisco Lindor 9.00% 90.5

    22 Carlos Correa 9.30% 90.5

    23 Ian Happ 9.40% 90

    24 Matt Chapman 9.60% 92.2

    That’s pretty good company. Only half of that list has a LD% over 20%. so 12 players.

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34. I try to keep things simple. These things are good:

    • Low swinging strike rate
    • Hitting the ball hard consistently, so Average EV instead of Max EV
    • Line drive rate (LD’s have a .616 BABIP, nearly 3x the BABIP of ground balls or fly balls)
    • High walk rate
    • Low K rate (which is highly correlated to low swinging strike rate)

    There are 24 players in MLB that have a 90 Ave EV and a swinging strike rate of sub 10%:

    # Name SwStr% EV

    1 Maikel Garcia 5.40% 91.3

    2 Alec Bohm 6.30% 90.8

    3 Yandy Díaz 6.90% 93

    4 Gleyber Torres 6.90% 90

    5 Juan Soto 7.00% 93.8

    6 Mike Yastrzemski 7.10% 90.8

    7 Lars Nootbaar 7.60% 91.3

    8 Alejandro Kirk 7.70% 91.1

    9 Trent Grisham 7.70% 91.1

    10 Vinnie Pasquantino 7.90% 90.9

    11 Alec Burleson 8.00% 91

    12 Kyle Tucker 8.00% 90.1

    13 Taylor Ward 8.20% 90.1

    14 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 8.40% 92

    15 Ben Rice 8.50% 93.2

    16 Brice Turang 8.50% 91.1

    17 Paul Goldschmidt 8.60% 90.4

    18 Seiya Suzuki 8.90% 91.3

    19 Bo Bichette 8.90% 91

    20 Ketel Marte 9.00% 90.8

    21 Francisco Lindor 9.00% 90.5

    22 Carlos Correa 9.30% 90.5

    23 Ian Happ 9.40% 90

    24 Matt Chapman 9.60% 92.2

    That’s pretty good company. Only half of that list has a LD% over 20%, so 12 players in all MLB have a low swinging strike rate, a high LD rate and consistently hit the ball hard.

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    1. Ugghhh.. the Mutts have 3 of those players… possibly 4. I always thought Matt Chapman would’ve been a great add to this group

       Thanks for the info

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       1. I pounded the table for a long time to trade Bohm and sign Chapman.

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    2. You mean like that Alec Bohm guy everyone wants to get rid of?

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       1. Bohm has a great hit tool. The issues with Bohm are:
          1. He doesn’t walk
          2. He doesn’t hit for power
          3. He is an average at best defender, but I think a below average defender due to poor range.

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          1. He also grounds into a lot of double plays, is not a great baserunner, and just doesn’t do alot of little things well.

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             1. Correct. he is slow. very slow. Bohm is a 1 tool player. good hit tool.

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                1. What counts as “good?” Take away that funky 2020 season, and he is a career 102 ops+ hitter who averages 1.9 oWAR per season.

                   I know I’m trying to split hairs here, but I don’t consider him a “good” hitter. Average to a tick above-average for his one, carrying tool. I’d say he’s a better crier.

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35. @Andrew R.

    In this contact, the “hit” tool might be better described as, “ability to make contact.” Whereas OPS+ and oWAR are stats that account for all offensive contributions. So his “hit” tool carries him to be an average player because all of his other tools are subpar.

    Put another way, Bohm hits for a fairly empty average. But his batting average of .287 last year was well above the league average of .254. So his ability to get a hit is quite good. But that doesn’t mean he’s good at converting that into runs.

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    1. In this context*

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36. Stunned that Chris Bassitt was still able to get 1/18 from the Orioles.

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37. The Phillies have informed Casty not to report, he’s probably going to get released in the next 48 hours.

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38. this kind of thing usually brings out the karma police, but Nick seems so toxic and he’s still being paid $20 million to play elsewhere that I don’t think that will apply this time. .

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39. I can’t recall another season, when the Phillies were a competitive team and relying upon rookies as much as the 2026 team will rely upon rookies. We really do not have a back up plan if Crawford doesn’t hit. I guess it is Rojas, but we really need Crawford to perform. Painter as well. Our backup if Painter fails is Taijuan. And it feels like Aidan Miller will be called upon at some point to play 3rd or SS if there is an injury to either Turner, Bohm or Harper. It is not hard to see a scenario in which all 3 of those rookies are in the lineup in a meaningful game in September or October.

    They are all talented. They all can do it. But we really need them to perform.

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    1. Well the good news for all three is that the roles they’re filling have basically been black holes for us for large parts of the past 3 seasons and the team still managed to win 90+ games each time.

       Not that I’m counting on history to repeat itself, but it can at least be a reassuring thing to tell them. “Don’t sweat it, kid. We survived 2024 Whit Merrifield, Taijuan Walker, and Rojas. You’ll be fine.”

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       1. V1/Dan –

          They do need to perform, and I believe they will. As I’ve mentioned before, this is a moment many of us on this site have waited for. The Phillies are going to “hit” on these guys.

          It’s a great point Dan, the black hole… super low bar for them to hurdle over.

          Another aspect to that is the upward pressure their success will have on the team. It’s gotta put a fire under 3 players specifically. Stott, Bohm, & Marsh. The FO has mentioned that changes are coming, and many of us thought it would be through Free agency … but you now have Stott, Marsh, & Bohm looking over their Shoulders with 3+ players chasing their spots – Sosa, Kemp, and Miller.

          T Walker really benefits from Painter’s success, becuase now he gets bumped and doesn’t even have to feel bad about hurting the team. He just gets to collect. He’s got a backup QB esque life style if so!

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    2. Its exciting for me and should be for all of us. Its why we are all here to follow the prospect journey.

       Think about all the names we’ve followed over the years. Kyle Drabek, Jon Singleton, Larry Green, Sebastian Valle, Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez, Spencer Howard, JP Crawford, Jhailyn Ortiz and hundreds of others whom we’ve forgotten.

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       1. I honestly still can’t believe that Dom Brown was a bust.

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          1. The hitters have to constantly adjust or else they will be done. Even winning the ROY doesn’t mean you will have a long career. Jonathan India is on his second team. Kyle Lewis looks finished 4 years after winning the award.

             Former #1 pick Pat Burrell has a career minor league OPS of .969.

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40. Gelb reports Castellanos release

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    1. I hated this signing since day 1. But I thought we were at least going to get 20+ homers, 35+ doubles, and a .280 average every year. But nope. Every GM misses badly here and there. This was Dave’s biggest miss as our GM so far.

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       1. In fairness…. He did about the best smoke screen you coudl do, wiht a .309BA 40+ 2B & 40+ HRS… while still missing a month of the season…

          You swap his 2023 Allstar year with his 2022 season… I feel like they would’ve beat HOU.

          He’s a pure DH at this point.

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41. Passan has good article up on the potential 2027 situation for baseball. Two things stood out for me. Tucker is going to cost Dodgers $119.9M for this season with the tax paid. 2nd that Dodgers in last 2 seasons have signed 9 players for $1.8B. That is a B.

    What Kyle Tucker’s Dodgers contract means for MLB labor peace – ESPNWhat Kyle Tucker’s Dodgers contract means for MLB labor peace – ESPN

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42. From Gelb’s article:

    “Removed for defensive purposes in a game against the Miami Marlins, played in his hometown with family and friends in the seats, Castellanos directed his ire at Phillies coaches. The beer served as a prop. If not in the game, Castellanos was on vacation. He yelled at the coaches and manager Rob Thomson while teammates watched.

    Two players who were not on the field at that time, Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto, intervened. They tried to usher Castellanos out of sight before cameras could capture a player drinking a beer in an active dugout. Howie Kendrick, the former longtime big leaguer and now a Phillies special assistant, attempted to be a peacemaker by snatching the beer. They urged the right fielder to cool down and discuss the issue after the game ended. It was only a two-run game, and the Phillies who were still in the game had to secure a victory. Castellanos ranted more to Thomson before disappearing into the clubhouse.”

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    1. Wait, he had a beer in his hand in the dugout? How did he get that? There’s no excuse for that, that’s totally unprofessional.

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       1. Basically he was using it as a prop to say, “if you’re going to be lax with your players, why not go all the way and let us have beer in the dugout?” So his message isn’t entirely wrong. But the way he presented it was completely unprofessional, and the timing hugely ironic since Thomson was finally making a long-overdue adjustment (defensive replacement for Casty late in close games).

          But even that whole situation in the dugout wouldn’t have been enough for the response by the team since then. So whatever he said in his meeting with Thomson and DD after must have truly and fully burnt bridges.

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    2. The final tally for Castellanos: $100M for 1.4 WAR. The crazy thing is that it’s not the worst contract the Phillies have ever given out.

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    3. My take: report it then when it happened or don’t report it at all. It means nothing now and I couldn’t care less about it today. I’ve moved on to 2026.

       In the history of the MLB there have been all types of skirmishes in the dugout and in the locker room. Its part of the game, part of a 162 game season and really means so little.

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43. So with Castellanos gone, I assume that puts the Phillies 40-man at 39? I guess we are waiting for all the final pitching pieces to fall into place so we can nab someone for about $2M. Buehler…? Buehler…?

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    1. If Buehler wants to start, he’s not signing with Philadelphia.

       Buehler can wait until a starter gets hurt before signing.

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44. Alvardo:

    Gonna call you out bro… you know exactly why… better be a thyroid issue

    Castellanos:

    Im sure it was much worse than the one incident. Its gotta be a hellva lot to have the stones to ask you boss to eat 20 million. I hope some how it’s a business writeoff… gotta wonder if the CBA tax is too!

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    1. Oh no! Are you insinuating Alvarado is fat again!?

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       1. No! Andrew. His clothes are too small

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45. Phillies dodged a bullet in getting Duran vs Clause…

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46. HOF Earl Weaver 1,480 wins along with Buck Showalter, Jim Leyland and a host of others just wouldn’t have been good enough for Casty to play for because they didn’t “carry the stick”! Glad he’s gone, couldn’t stand his “schtik”, low and 12″ outside mostly.

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47. New posting at Phillies Discussion (2/13/2026) | Phuture Phillies

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