294 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion (12/16/2025)”

1. I am not understanding, this off-season so far. Same team, minus Ranger and Wheeler is a question mark.

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   1. rocco….not over yet….I expect a trade from Dombrowski at some point to cull the OF herd. The fat lady has not sung.

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      1. not nice,I date a fat lady. 5″3 320 she is hot

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         1. Is she good at bowling!

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2. Anyone know about a 16 year old in Venezuela that we are supposed to sign next month that won a HR derby recently with multiple MLB players in it. I heard Jack Fritz mention it on WIP a week ago or so.

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   1. Francisco Renteria…..6’3″, 200 LBs….Hit: 60 | Power: 65 | Run: 60 | Arm: 55 | Field: 60 | Overall: 60

      Born in Maracaibo, Venezuela, Renteria has been a longtime participant on the travel ball scene since a young age. Evaluators have pointed to those experiences and his maturity as positive marks in his favor as he gets his professional career underway. At just 15 years old, Renteria went 8-for-28 with three doubles – collecting hits off two former big leaguers – during a stint in the Venezuelan Major League this summer. He trains extensively with César Suárez at CJ Baseball Academy, a member of MLB’s Trainer Partnership Program. Renteria earned comparisons from one evaluator to Konnor Griffin, the Pirates’ 2024 first-round pick who ascended to No. 1 overall prospect status in his first year of pro ball. Others see even more in the tank for Renteria’s right-handed hit tool due to his advanced offensive approach and considerable bat speed. He’s presently a contact monster, which when coupled with his excellent understanding of the strike zone and his plus-plus raw power, leads to him having one of the highest offensive upsides in the 2026 international class. 

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      1. I’ve got a sneaky feeling that Renteria is the elite outfield LA prospect we’ve been waiting for for like 40 years. I’m dead serious. I can’t wait until he gets to full season single A ball, which would likely be in 2027 (you only learn so much from short season ball with a hitter, but certainly, a good showing would be encouraging). Boy is it ever time that we hit on one of these prospects.

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      2. Pretty exciting write up. Hope he is for real.

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      3. I literally cannot remember the Phillies’ last 60 grade position prospect (maybe Dom Brown was at some point? But otherwise, maybe Scott Rolen?). And if he turns out to be better than those projections – damn!!!

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   2. https://www.mlb.com/video/top-int-l-prospects-f-renteria-of

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3. MLB trade rumors has an article saying that the Phillies OF is set with Marsh/Crawford/Garcia being the main guys. Castellanos is most definitely gone.

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4. guess they see something in garcia they can fix/tweak/harness, his D will be better and stronger arm so whatever.. he he starts thwacking he can out homer Bader and shorter risk term.. Painter is the Ranger replacement i guess

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5. “Catcher is really our main focus,” Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said in a Zoom call with the media on Tuesday. “We just continue to grind along and see if we can come up with a solution,” Dombrowski said. “We talk about, consistently, about trying to sign J.T., and we remain that way. But we haven’t been able to get it done so far. I think as far as our everyday positional players, other than catcher, we’re pretty well set,” Dombrowski said.

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   1. I think we got our answer on the financials… this team is maxed payroll wise. I think any FO would like to add a OFer to this team where it stands currently, if money was no issue. They were around 283 with Schwarber’s resigning … they just added 10, and realmuto is in the 15-20 range. Thats over the 300mil CBA threshold.

      Bregman may still be possible, but I’m starting to think they Phillies will wait til next year to dive back into the FA pool. They could have 73mil coming off the books with expiring contracts, promotions, & trades – Casty & walker = 38 gone. Bohm 10, Alvarado 9, Strahm 7, Marsh 5, Stott 5…or Sosa 4. Plus Garica could add 10 if he stinks, or cost a whole lot more.

      I will say, i think CBA politics maybe creeping in… how do you win a CBA showdown with the players “union” when you ADD to payroll to a team that claims they are losing money? That may not be 100% but it’s close enough to give the players union a lot of ammo.

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      1. I think Billionaires, in general, complaining that their asset isn’t profitable when it’s valuation does nothing but go up year after year is probably enough ammunition.

         Oh yeah, and that’s not counting the fact that they play in a tax-payer-funded stadium, get “X” dollars from whatever local television deal, “X” dollars from ESPN every year, “X” dollars from TBS, “X” dollars from Fox, now “X” dollars from Netflix……. you can research and add the numbers and pretty easily see that “Billionaires losing money” sounds like a problem we would all sign up to have.

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      2. The Phillies are not signing another big free agent outside of the organization, like Bregman. I just don’t see that happening. Aside from signing JT or another catcher, the biggest move (and one I hope they make) is extending Luzardo. Aside from that they will be working at the margins, which, by the way, is where DD often does his best work, so stay tuned.

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         1. Ranger’s 157 IP need to be picked up. If Painter comes back to form his 118 IP last year should move to the 150 Range based on typical protocol

            We’ll see what happens.

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      3. And $42M for Wheeler comes off the books. Just Casty, Walker, and Wheeler is $80M.

         By the way, I read Dombrowski’s comments about being pretty well set for position players, except for catcher, as implying that they are NOT set for pitchers. Maybe they finally land a Japanese starter?

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         1. Wheeler’s deal ends AFTER the 2027 season.

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         2. alvarado and bohm add an extra 20ish million

            a lot of FA names for 2027. Not sure there’s a tom of quality outside of Skubal.

            best bet might be locking up luzardo

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            1. Agreed – lock up Luzardo. I bet they sort of regret not signing Ranger when they could have. Now is their window to get a Luzardo deal done before he does something crazy like win a Cy Young award – he definitely has the stuff to do that.

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6. Brad Keller for 2/$22 not bad….

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7. That works – now we need one more high leverage arm…

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   1. where are you slotting that high leverage arm (and who would it be)?

      left side: strahm, alvarado, banks

      right side: duran, keller, kerkering

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8. Keller has some similarities to Kerkering, 97+ mph fastball and a sweeper. I wonder if Kerkering is being shopped?

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9. Interesting that Keller had thoracic outlet syndrome several years ago.

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   1. Was it the same TOS as Wheelers?

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   2. Not the same TOS as Wheeler’s……… Brad Keller and Zack Wheeler were diagnosed with different types of thoracic outlet syndrome (TOS). 

      Zack Wheeler was diagnosed with venous thoracic outlet syndrome (vTOS). This type involves compression of a vein, which caused a blood clot in his throwing arm. Venous TOS is less common but generally has a better long-term outlook for pitchers’ careers than the neurogenic type.

      Brad Keller was diagnosed with neurogenic thoracic outlet syndrome (nTOS). This is the most common type and involves compression of the brachial plexus nerves, which can cause pain, numbness, and muscle weakness. Neurogenic TOS has historically been more difficult for pitchers to return from successfully, but Keller has had a successful comeback as a reliever after his surgery. 

       Brad Keller and Vinny Velasquez both had thoracic outlet syndrome (TOS) that required surgery, and both involved the removal of the first rib to address the condition. This is the standard surgical procedure for the specific type of TOS that affected them. 

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      1. Thanks, I didn’t dig into the details on Keller’s surgery, just saw it noted on the signing story.

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         1. Could be encouraging for Wheeler’s recovery and return to form.

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10. This Keller signing is a really smart move (although, again, super expensive at their tax level). Rather than having to give up a some ridiculous assets to get a reliever at the trade deadline, they got a really solid guy now. I like this a lot.

    I’m still curious about whether they are going to move Bohm.

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    1. By the way, these contracts bring into clearer relief just how good of an acquisition Tanner Banks has been and is likely to be going forward. Great pick up.

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11. Trading Bohm, Stott, and Kerkering to D Bags for Marte.

    Sign Fairbanks and JT.

    Trade Casty to Cincy for Joe Morgan’s left nut.

    That’s a winning offseason.

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12. I want Sandy alcantara . Does kierling, Rojas , Nori get it d0ne

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    1. rocco…….he only has one year left on his contract and then possibly a free agent in ’27 along with Jesus Luzardo. Sandy A has a team option which would be beneficial for the Phillies.

       Kerkering, Rojas, Nori for him……they may only want Wood ilo of Kerkering.

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13. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/47285604/2025-mlb-winter-meetings-manager-survey-rules-challenge-system-players Interesting responses.

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14. I could see the Phillies trying to offload Schwarber somehow in 2030.

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    1. If Schwarber doesn’t have an NTC in this contract, he’ll have ten and five rights after the 2026 season. There’ll be no offloading after next season without his agreement to any potential deal.

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       1. Thanks. I just looked. It seems like the Phillies plan on carrying dead weight salaries from whenever Nola starts to be ineffective permanently to 2033 when Trea Turner is off the books. I believe 2025 was a down year for Nola, and he will rebound in 2026. In 2030, the Phillies face the possibility of paying over $100 in dead weight salary. If I was Realmuto, I would be wanting to get a piece of that.

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       2. IMO and its a roll of the dice but players are always tradable even with a NTC. Especially if you can get them to a team where they have a real shot at a Championship. (most of the time)

          Assuming we get to a season where its obvious we are no longer competing for divisions let alone playoffs.

          That’s not to say you aren’t eating money to get those deals done but who cares.

          A team with the Phillies market cap should never stay down for too long. With the right GM of course.

          We think in terms of racking up WS titles and while JM does as well his priority is keeping the Bank loaded.

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15. Who is the best prospect that you would attach to a package of Taijuan and Casty to entice a bottom feeding team to take their contracts for one year in full. That would free up $40 mil. We could use that to bring back JT and sign Bregman or Bichette.

    I would trade anyone besides Miller, Painter and Wood.

    How about your?

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    1. Remember when the Braves essentially bought top 150 prospect Touki Toussaint from the DBacks for $10M?

       I don’t even think Crawford, Escobar, Nori is worth $40M. So if you’re keeping those 3 guys, the Phillies won’t have enough prospects to do that type of deal.

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    2. I think the ship has sailed on casty. It is likely a buyout or getting gut. Attaching a prospect to Walker is probably a more realistic goal at this point.

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    3. I’d add Escobar to that list. I’m just going to bite the proverbial bullet and let that money rot.

       Painter Miller Wood Escobar throw Nori in there too could all not amount to much but I wouldn’t trade any of them to spend money on aging fading players.

       If you go back and look at the deal DD did when he was in Boston to get Chris Sale OK I’m listening…

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16. It looks like we may be looing at Tyler Mahle on a 1 year $18 million dollar deal. Jimmy any truth to that rumor?

    I like the idea. He doesn’t strike a lot of guys out but he put up a very respectable 1.13 WHIP and .5 HR/9 last season with TX.

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    1. I haven’t heard much on the pitching side. I’ve heard several plans for when/if Realmuto accepts a three year deal elsewhere. One convoluted series of moves includes acquiring a catcher via trade and the eventual signing of a big ticket free agent. But if JT accepts two years or the Phillies budge on three, the Phillies are likely done except for some window dressing.

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17. If JT isn’t willing to take what we’re offering maybe pivot to Jonah Heim. He’s considered a solid if not above average defensive catcher and a switch hitter with some pop.

    We should be able to get him at a fraction of what the JT offer is.

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    1. And guess what…besides being a GG winner and switch-hitter, the 30-year old Jonah H. has a WS ring already and may want another.

       I wich you on this.

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18. Good Morning All,

    I have been reading this site for over a decade and finally felt it was time to contribute to the conversation. Thank you Jim for this platform and the “hidden in context” information that provide regularly in these posts. I have 2 questions for thought….

    Is this the year the Phillies finally enter the Japanese market? Specifically for Imai? I know the internet is what it is, but the other day she did just follow Zack Wheeler on social media and then later on in the day, Zack’s wife posted a picture of Japanese candy and snacks. Maybe a coincidence, maybe not.

    2nd thought stems from Dave’s press conference and made an interesting comment about Crawford. He stated that they would like him to win the centerfield job but wasn’t sure that was the best combination. Jim I know you alluded to these in an early post but how Dante Nori finished the year in AA and in the Arizona fall league, are we underselling him as a prospect and should we view him in the same vein as Miller as a possible midseason call up?

    Thanks,

    Pat

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    1. Well, you didn’t ask me, but I’ll give you my thoughts anyway.

       On the Japanese pitcher, I really do think the Phillies want to get into the Japanese market. But my guess is their first choice is to extend Luzardo, but if that isn’t going well, it wouldn’t at all shock me if they signed Imai. Not at all. In fact, they offered Yomamoto the same money as the Dodgers but just had no chance because of the cultural favoritism of Japanese players for that team. But the team is willing to spend on high end Japanese players and Imai could be in play, but it will be hard to get him if a more well known team in Japan (Cubs, Yankees, Mets) wants him. In the Japanese culture, as we’ve seen play out, reputation is a big thing to players.

       As for Crawford, a team never wants to tell a young player that he has a spot secured before he’s done anything at all in the majors. They want him to compete for the spot, but he’s the presumptive favorite. As for Nori, I doubt seriously that they are relying on him at all to be promoted this year or even to start next year. I think they are just going to let his performance dictate his progression. I can assure you, however, they are not relying on him AT ALL this year, although they could change plans if he turns out to be a special player. Garcia being on a one year contract helps with this flexibility.

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       1. Agree Dante just turned 21 in October. JC will turn 22 next month. JC interestingly had more PAs at Jersey Shore than he did at Reading as a 20 y/o.

          Spent his entire age 21 season at AAA 334/411/863 OPS. Despite what the scouts say about his GB rate that is near elite IMO.

          So while Nori may have found something to unlock his upside it will still have to show up next season for him to be considered viable as future every day option in Philly.

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          1. There are a few critical things that it seems that nobody is talking about when it comes to Crawford, despite the serious (and somewhat legitimate) criticism of his groundball rate.

             First, and this for is me, by far, the biggest development for Crawford in the last year – his walk rate nearly doubled. Walk rate, particularly for a player whose OBP is especially critical to his success, is massively important. And it’s not just the walks. The walk rate improvements mean that he generally swinging at better pitches and laying off bad pitches, which, in turn, improves his average and slugging. This positive trend in walk rate has improved all of his numbers, not just his OBP.

             Second, watching the videos, I saw a much improved ability in Crawford to drive the ball and not just put it in play. I was concerned about that, because early on I saw Crawford just sort of spray the ball around when I felt he could do more.

             If his fielding can become above average (there have been critiques of his fielding recently), he’s got a chance to be perennial 3-5 WAR player – not that much different from his father. I’ll take it!

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             1. Agreed. I am concerned about the swing path, but not about him growing into his body more. One thing that strikes me in recent photos is that he has broad shoulders–NOT a Ben Revere body. That bodes well for more leverage once he fills out a but more.

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          2. You know, it’s too bad Nori can’t play second base. It’s much harder to find a permanent spot for him in the outfield, especially if Crawford takes centerfield. I’m curious to see how he will develop. It also wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up being traded.

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             1. Why is it hard? Our outfield is terrible. Nori can play right or left or center, And if Crawford pans out . From what I heard he is a really good center field.

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                1. Because, you want sluggers and run producers at your corner outfield positions. If Crawford is in center (reports on his defense are actually not that great – but I hope that’s wrong – but whether it is or not, that’s where I think he will play), do you really want Dante Nori is left or right? To me, it’s not an ideal fit at all. He would have to hit for a really high average and get on base a lot to justify a corner outfield position – the bar is pretty high.

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                2. Brewers are going that route with Sal Frelick in RF….good bat, but 45 power.

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       2. to piggyback on the Japanese player market. I understand that Philly has not real precedent for signing such players… but these players need to wake up a bit. If you watch their games in Japan. The fans look like they have full on rabies. Its loud. That atmosphere is not in too many places in the MLB. CBP certainly gets there, i get it, a handful of other teams are loud… but once you get past LAD, NYY& NYM… Phily should be #4. My two cents free of charge!

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          1. I think the Phillies shouldn’t worry too much about the 154-pound Imai. If my choice this offseason is Bregman or Imai, I’m going with Bregman. If they want to jump into the Japanese market, that’s great. Go all out when the next special guy comes along. Maybe their offer should’ve been $350+ to Yamamoto if they really wanted him. But I don’t want to spend big money in our best championship window on a potential #4 or #5 pitcher.

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             1. I really, really, really do not want Bregman.

                Yeah, he’s a good player and all, but, he’s going to be expensive, he’s going to require a long-term deal, he’s already declined quite a bit, and the Phillies are likely to have plenty of depth at third, where Aidan Miller will almost certainly land. You sign Bregman and now and in 2 years you have 4 players in the mid-thirties, with huge salaries declining at the same time. No way. I’ll be super upset if they sign Bregman.

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    2. The Phillies want to get in on the Japanese market but it’s hard because the other teams have such a head start on them. They will need a player who wants to go to a different team (to blaze his own trail) or take a chance on a lesser player and hope he breaks out. I can see them going after Imai if the Phillies feel that won’t be able to extend Luzardo. I thought the Phillies had a serious shot at Murakami with Schwarber being a FA.

       The Phillies are basically giving Crawford the CF job but they haven’t announced anything yet. Nori is likely not in the picture in 2026 unless he breaks out. The Phillies will have Kemp, Marsh, Crawford, Garcia. I think Wilson and Rojas will still be in the mix.

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    3. I don’t believe either Nori or Miller will be called up at anytime this season. I know I’m in the minority here, but doesn’t matter when I’m right.

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       1. It’s hard to see a scenario where Nori gets a call-up. It would seem to take a combination of unforeseeable performance on Nori’s part and unforeseen injuries of others. They wouldn’t bring Nori up to play part time.

          Aidan Miller could play his way into the Phillies 2026 plans. I’m not predicting it or saying it has as much as a 30 % chance. But there is an easy to imagine succession scenario at 3B if Miller plays 3B with the Iron Pigs to start the season.

          If Bohm holds down 3B for the entire season and leaves in free agency, the Phils likely get nothing. But if Miller looks MLB-ready by the trade deadline, that transition could be advanced.

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       2. like you were right about Crawford not being a thier centerfielder going into the season?

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19. “The best available [left-hander] is Matt Strahm, who is likely to be traded by Philadelphia.” –

    @JeffPassan

    https://x.com/PhilsTailgate/status/2001658295443214358?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2001658295443214358%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

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    1. If this is true, then there would have to be another move in the works. They are not going into 2026 with Alvarado and Banks as the only lefties in the BP and there’s no high end lefty ready to be promoted from AA or AAA.

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       1. JoJo may be coming back.

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          1. I guess that’s possible, but what’s your basis for saying that? Have you heard rumors of a JoJo trade or is it just hopeful thinking? By the way, he would be a perfectly acceptable substitute for Strahm, but I’m wondering if this is a realistic possibility.

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20. Old O C – Speaking of lefties. Nori will never play 2B because he throws left -handed.

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    1. Good point – thanks for pointing that out. I forgot about that. Unless he’s a guy who is routinely getting on base at like a .375 clip or better, it’s very hard to see him and Crawford in the same outfield long term.

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21. Since we’re talking about the Phillies trying to get into the Japanese market, I can give some slight good news; someone did a poll of favorite teams in each Japanese prefecture, and the Phillies were the undisputed favorite in Niigata.

    Now obviously that pales in comparison to the Dodgers (who were the overwhelming favorite in most of Japan, of course). But that does make us one of only 7 teams to be the sole favorite of an entire prefecture. And Niigata has over 2 million people living in it, so it’s not nothing.

    Progress.

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22. i will never understand, you want power hitting outfielders. If you have power hitters at SS. Dh. First base, catcher. Why can’t your outfielders be high obp guys. ?

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    1. They can, there’s many ways to build a team.

       The high power OF is just an archetype because power hitters tend to be big guys, and big guys tend to be slower. So the small, fast guys tend to be your middle infielders with good defense and little pop.

       But sometimes you get players who break the mold, and sometimes you get a drought of players who fit the archetypes. In which case you make do with what you have and/or think outside the box.

       When it comes to predicting success of prospects, though, people are going to hedge their bets on the non-prototypical players. It doesn’t mean they can’t be successful. Just that their path to success might just be a bit tougher.

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    2. In the words of Tevye…..Tradition!

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    3. Generally speaking or the Phillies as they are currently constructed Rocco?

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23. Tevye? That’s the Russian poet?

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24. The late great Tony Gwnn played 20 seasons. He hit over 10 homeruns only 5 times in his career and only as many as 17 once. His total homerun number was a scant 135.

    Five times he had 200 hits or more. In 10,232 plate appearances he walked 790 times and struck out 434 times. In those 20 seasons he batted under .300 ONE time, his first year.

    In his 2326 games he played RIGHT field in 2144 games. He was a corner outfielder with only enough power to put the ball over the fence just 135 times, yet he played RF.

    My point is that if Justin Crawford ends up playing a corner, we can look at Gwynn’s career there. Of course, I’m not saying/writing that Crawford will ever be as accomplished.

    The kid has not played a single major league game. Yet, we as Phillies die-hards are all wishing that in some way, shape or form he has a fraction of the success Tony Gwynn had.

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    1. Tony Gwynn was a true outlier and really shouldn’t be compared to anybody. He won 8 batting titles (.338 career BA), 7 silver sluggers and 5 GGs. The closest I’ve seen to Gwynn is maybe Rod Carew in terms of hitting.

       If we’re lucky, Crawford becomes Michael Bourn with a little more offense.

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    2. My point is not necessarily that you need a slugger in the corner outfield position, but that you need a very productive offensive player, which in most (but not all) cases means you want someone who can drive the ball and do damage (of course you want them to get on base too). You don’t want your corner outfielders to be hitting like a typical shortstop. And you’re right that nobody should expect that anyone who is a contact hitter will end up hitting like Tony Gwynn or Rod Carew, Wade Boggs, or even Pete Rose – those guys are rare, rare commodities.

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25. On Nick Castellanos:

    “I’ve been trying to check around seeing if anyone was interested in Nick Castellanos,” Phillies insider Todd Zolecki said on his podcast this week. “I couldn’t find anybody, I’ve heard people say, ‘I’m not interested at any price in Nick Castellanos.’ They mention the defense is a big reason why. Another person I talked to said if Nick is traded at all, it’ll happen much later in the offseason, when every other option falls off the board,” Zolecki added, “maybe the last team standing that still needs a right-handed bat might want to make a trade with the Phillies.”

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    1. Totally not surprised by this. I wanted him gone by the end of last season. He’s one of the worst defensive RFs in the last 20 years.

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       1. Yeah……..he could be an albatross this season for the team……Dombrowski giving those way- too-extended contracts has put himself in a conundrum.

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26. Bohm, Kerkering, and Stott for Marte and bat him second.

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27. 3 open spots on roster, 4 if Castellanos is moved, 5 if someone is traded (Strahm). I could see additions to C, RP, SP, and OF. Refsnyder, Pham, Andujar could be decent adds to OF mix. JT as Catcher.

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    1. If JTR moves on…Strahm could be traded for Royal’s Carter Jensen, Dodgers’ Dalton Rushing or Brewer’s Jefferson Quero….all are among the young backstops currently blocked at the big-league level.

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       1. Love to get young catcher . Save Realmuto money , use it to move Casty, pay most of his contract

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    2. Clubhouse doesn’t need Pham.

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28. Heard Strahm traded

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29. Strahm gone for another bullpen piece and cash savings to pay Keller. Still need now 2 more bullpen pitchers – Danny Coulombe ? A lefty who has been effective ?

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    1. hmmm… my spidey senses tell me Realmuto could be gone. Jensen should be included in that trade unless the pitcher they got in return was a high level prospect. Strahm is worth more than that. He’s not a salary dump.

       If they don’t get a catcher in return, Im thinking Realmuto is definely back then. If could be trying to make way for Bregman or Marte.

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       1. I’m not the biggest Strahm fan but he was extremely productive for the Phillies during his tenure. He’s already 34 but this seems like a salary dump to me.

          The only way the Phillies sign a big name FA is on a pillow contract. I don’t think the Phillies are in the market to give yet another $175M+ deal.

          Marte makes sense but he’s going to cost a lot and I don’t think the Phillies want to do that either. I don’t see how the Phillies get Marte without Painter or Miller.

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          1. If I remember correctly, there were rumors of Strahm not being the greatest clubhouse guy. I could easily be wrong, I forget exactly where I read it… but I don’t think Strahm was too happy with his Hoffman buddy not coming back. So is it a salary dump or a salary dump & a clubhouse move?

             On another big contract… i disagree. I think the FO could be looking to add. They have to see the offense is not up to par, regardless of results. It’s pretty glaring. They can look at FA this year or next. Who is the best option to add? if its this year, i think they bite the bullet and so less next year… or vice versa. I think it depends on who they are targeting. Casty crapping out really hurt. They lost Hoskins product & a decline Realmuto. They definetly need another bat.

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             1. I’m projecting what the Phillies will do and not what I want. I didn’t say that the Phillies don’t need another bat, you can never have enough bats. But it looks like the Phillies are operating to try to stay under the next luxury tax tier, whether you like it or not. I do think they are willing to go over the next tier, within reason. I just don’t think they will go after another large contract.

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             2. In the play-offs…..something like this, Kerkering fumbled a grounder….Strahm mentioned maybe they should do more PFP…..Dombrowski said they do, Strahm just elected not to do them. Do not know if that is what you are alluding to.

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             3. It seems to be seeping out that Strahm may have been something of an issue in the clubhouse. Heard Loud Outs commentators talking about it this afternoon on Sirius radio station MLB. They seemed to think it was addition by subtraction and was “management’s” view to move him. We won’t know if this trade was made to accomplish several goals – money room, more change for change sake, or a malcontent removal. Any which way I think it is a modest improvement because as good as Strahm was for the first 2 years he was losing velo and had lost his former ability to pitch clean innings in year 3. He cost the team several games – in key moments and in playoffs in 2025. Hopefully they will find a suitable replacement.

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          2. Ideally my preference is Marte, but I agree, the Phillies have a light trade package for him compared to other teams. Ex – Redsoxs. So it would have to come down to the Phillies willing to offer up the best prospect, much like the Marlins/Realmuto trade with “Sixto”

             at this point… Im wondering why Bohm & Strahm couldn’t have gotten Ford from Seattle. That would’ve been a big Money swing – 10+7+18 (realmuto’s money) – 35mil. Will see what DD is cooking up

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             1. I think giving up Sixto was a much easier proposition for the Phillies. I don’t believe the Phillies were happy with his lack of conditioning.

                Painter and Miller have pretty much done everything the Phillies have wanted them to do. Those 2 have very high projections and I think they are untouchable at this point. The Phillies will give them every opportunity to succeed in a Phillies uniform.

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             2. Why would Seattle want Bohm and Strahm? How does it help them giving up a young catching prospect for 2 players who will be FA’s after the 2026 season while also taking on $18m in payroll.

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       2. I see this as more evidence that JTR is returning and they freed up some payroll space to make it happen.

          Straham always made me nervous, but he was generally effective in his time with the Phillies. Looks like they got cheap, middle innings guy as the return.

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          1. I suspect that’s right. Because of their tax situation, every dollar saved now is like saving 2 dollars. So, taking $7.5 million off the payroll is like saving them $15 million. This move certainly improves the odds Realmuto will be back. Whether that is the right move or not is another question.

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             1. If the Phillies are playing a cat and mouse game with JTR…who is the cat..and who is the mouse…and who gets the chee$e?

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                1. I think JT is probably asking for more money, more years (or both) than he should be get, so I’m pretty glad they are trying to negotiate carefully with him. They are trying to take care of business while that sorts itself out. I don’t blame them one bit.

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30. Salary dump? Middleton is broke starting go fund me. On paper this deal stinks

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    1. As long as Middleton is around, I believe the Phillies will be top 5 in payroll. But asking Middleton to throw his money around (and paying a lot of luxury taxes) is asking for a lot. Even Steve Cohen realizes that type of spending doesn’t work.

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       1. The Guru. My point is when your GM gives out stupid deals. E.g. Casty overpaid in yrs, 18 million for a stiff pitcher. You don’t give away a left hand reliever. Who are tough to find for a relief pitcher who has been up and down the minors. To save money.

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       2. Especially also when the end result is losing international funny-money ………and dropping slots in the draft and losing allocation draft slot money.

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31. think Washington poaching their new GM from the Phil’s FO will cause it problems?

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    1. Or….maybe Keibert Ruiz is over his conxussions and could be the Phillies catcher thru a trade.

       https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ruizke01.shtml

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       1. Ro.us that guy’s numbers are terrible

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          1. rocco…….he may need a change of scenery…then again he should not cost much.

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32. Phils add another left hander with minor league optionability to the bullpen in Kyle Bachus for a minor league OF. I think these bullpen moves today is all about acquiring players who can be optioned up and down to mix it up in the pen and to also add more flexibility to the roster. This fills the 38th slot on the 40 man. Looks like there will be more to come.

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33. Sorry – Kyle Backhus.

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34. Shane Baz going to the Orioles….looks like they are making their move on pitching.

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    1. Baz is 26 and under control for 3 more years. He didn’t have a good year last season but the Orioles still gave Tampa their 6th, 10th, 11th, 30th ranked prospects. That’s a lot of depth that Baltimore gave up, let’s hope that doesn’t hurt them in the future.

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       1. The two I would be nervous about on coming to haunt them are pitcher Forret and OFer de Brun,…catcher Bodine still has a way to go, and he is from Haddon Heights NJ…..not sure about OFer Overn.

          deBrun may be in the Corbin Carroll mold as a hitter. Well that is what the Rays are hoping for.

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35. Rumors that Phils are in on Bo Bichette. Let’s have fun and play it out. No need to talk about money. Maybe DD has another salary dump lined up.

    1. He hits both handed pitches well but LHP particularly well.

    2. Low strikeout rate.

    3. High energy guy who performs in the playoffs.

    4. Negative, he isn’t a good shortstop. So where could they play him? If we keep Stott and Bohm, then here’s a crazy idea, how about left field? Then Marsh, Crawford and Garcia make a 3 player platoons for CF and RF.

    Lineup could be:
    1. Trae
    2. Schwarber
    3. Bo
    4. Harper
    5. Bohm
    6. Stott
    7. RF platoon (Marsh/Garcia)
    8. Catcher
    9. Crawford

    That’s pretty interesting

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    1. Bichette would likely come to replace Bohm to help offset $$$

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    2. I think they get one of Bregman or Bichette … t

       For me, Bichette to 3B, but that does get complicated with Miller’s promotion. That would mean Stott to the bench or LF. I’d tweak this to be that they still trade Bohm… I think they not only the position open, but the money too:

       1-Turner, Schwarber,Harper,BO,Garcia,Kemp (LF), Realmuto,Stott, Crawford

       or if no Realmuto… which i could see at this point IF they got Bichette, the catcher likely is the #8 hitter. I like having Crawford & Turner back to back for the times the lineup turns over. Seems to have a good amount.

       *I also don’t care about the L or R bat, these players should be able to hit whoever 🙂

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       1. but to throw cold water on this… id be super surprised if Bo left TOR. He’s pretty much on record saying he wants to play with Vlad Jr. It’s basically the Schwarber scenario for TOR/Bichette. Soooo it’s Bregman imo.

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          1. money talks…he will go to the highest bidder. they always do. that other stuff is fun for fans, but the players want to get paid.

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             1. Yep…..virtually every time it comes down to $$$$$.

                Would have Schwarber come back if the AAV was $28 vs $30M?

                I doubt it……he would have taken the higher AAV even though it would have been only $2M more.

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    3. V, my first reaction was that Bichette recently expressed a willingness to move to second base. My second was that I would rather he hit behind Harper. We have already seen that the present collection of RHB on the Phillies can’t provide protection for Harper.

       According to the MLBTR article, Bichette’s range is what the stat nerds credit as his failing at shortstop, not his hands. He’s coming off a knee injury that may further limit his range. Outfield might not be his best position. Third base? Gotta trade Bohm. Second Base? Gotta ask Harper for permission to trade Stott. Or Stott to third and still have to trade Bohm?

       Anyway, I like Bichette in the lineup if he bats behind Harper.

       Now, I have a question. Does Bichette playing second base affect his contract? Would he garner as many dollars as he would as a shortstop? Essentially, I guess you’re paying for his bat. But it seems to me that a second base contract should pay less than a shortstop contract.

       Bichette as a second baseman would leave third base open for Miller or Turner if Miller stays at shortstop. Although I think if the Phillies sign Bregman, Miller starts taking reps at second base at Lehigh or becomes trade bait as a shortstop. However, I think either signing is unlikely if the Phillies cave and give Realmuto that third year at $15-17M per year.

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       1. agree that to me Bichette is the pivot option if they don’t sign JTR and can reallocate that money. They can then use Marchan and Stubbs/cheap veteran as the catchers for 2026.

          Think he would replace Bohm and his $$$ and the JTR $$$ covers the salary.

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          1. Like DMAR posted the other day……go for Jonah Heim as the catcher to sign…..3yr/$33M

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             1. Whoa Romus LOL

                Yeah I’d take a flier on Heim but not sure he’s worth more than 1-2 years and not sure about $11 Million either…

                Jansen got 2/$14.5 I don’t think Heim is worth much more than that.

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       2. Hah…..getting Harper’s permission to trade Stott. That sums it up. Though trading Stott to the A’s, who are on their way to Vegas in two years, may be a viable option which would be agreeable to all..

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       3. Yeah. I think they want to keep Stott and clearly they want to move on from Bohm. I think they need to keep Miller in the mix. Teams desperately need surplus value players and Miller has the ability to be one starting in 2027.

          I agree that retaining JT makes the money hard. Last week I wondered out loud if they would pay a good prospect to get someone to take Casty’s 1 year contract. Maybe a package of Bohm, Casty and Nori could get done for a team that needs a 3rd baseman.

          Personally, I like Bo over Bregman. He is 4 years younger and has more position flexibility.

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36. Is there any updates on the Japanese players ? Not that I expect the Phillies to sign him, I believe the deadline is on Monday for Murakami to sign. Imai is January 2nd and Okamoto is the 4th. 

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    1. I haven’t heard anything. But I must confess that I don’t follow the posted NPB players since it seems very, very unlikely that the Phillies would be able to sign one.

       However, your question made me think about the actual cost to the Phillies if they were able to lure one of these players to Philadelphia.

       The Phillies currently stand at about $300.5M CB Tax Payroll without a catcher (Realmuto). The next and final tax threshold is $304M. Signing Realmuto and a Japanese player would surely place the Phillies over the threshold unless/until they offload salary.

       Signing a Japanese player to a 5-year contract for $100M (for simplicity’s sake in this example) would cost the Phillies $16.9 million in posting fees ($5M for the first $25M (at 20%), $4.4M for the second $25M (at 17.5%), and $7.5M for the final $50M (at 15%)). Then the Phillies would be taxed at 110% for any salary over the threshold, for this year – a total cost of $42M for salary and tax. This would be calculated separately each season.

       The total cost for 2026 would be $42M plus the posting fee of $16.9M which I don’t believe figures into the CBT. But almost $59M for a player who only pitches about 32 games seems like a lot.

       For what it’s worth, Imai will likely command a salary well north of $100M but probably for more years.

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       1. 😳…

          thats a bit ridiculous … even for the top tier of the baseball world. These Japanese players need to start coming through the draft, which im sure they won’t like.

          On the payroll… I like Bichette. He had one off year, but I hope the FO decides to pay CBA Tax knowing they have relief coming in 2026 & 2027 (theoretically)… I think they do. Which is why i see either Bregman or Bichette.

          The year to get him is now. Before the CBA talks. You could very well lose a year of Harper/Schwarber/Sanchez etc‘s prime. Gotta go for it. Then, Hopefuly the prospects can carve out their spot on this team as well. That shoudl be a recipe that can be the best in baseball.

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          1. Just raise the age and service time……age to 27 years old and/or 8 years NPL service. You will not have the next Ohtani until he is 27 vs 23 years old

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             1. Some of Japan’s top prospects have started transferring to US high schools to avoid the NPB entirely.

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                1. Dan K….perfecto, that means they go into the Rule 4 draft just like all the North American (US and Canadian) kids and kids from Puerto Rico.

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          2. What’s ridiculous? My math? I didn’t take a position other than to suggest that my example would be low on salary and years for Imai.

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             1. I don’t want to speak for him but I think he means the whole system and what is would cost the Phillies to sign him. I tend to agree and even though I would like them to sign him, not @ the price. Thank û for explaining that, I had no idea it would cost them that much.

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             2. Jim, to clarify – I was referring to the actual true cost it would take for the Phillies to sign a Japanese player, not your math or position. It was an eye opener. That’s a lot of money for a player who may or may not translate to the MLB.

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                1. Thank you for the clarification. In hindsight, I should have realized that.

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             3. Most things you say turn out to be incorrect. You also violate your use of the WordPress site continuously.

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                1. You want to explain, provide examples.

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                2. Never mind. You appear to be connected with the commenters I chastised a few weeks ago for attacking another commenter without any actual work to prove their assertions.

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37. MLBTR is saying the BlueJays are interested in Bregman.Im assuming they can’t sign both Bregman & Bichette. It could be a sign that Bichette is not as much of a lock to resign with TOR as previously reported by MLBTR.

    Will see. Bichette would be a nice Christmas present for the Greater Philadelphia Area!

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    1. If Bichette is signed…that means Stott moves off 2B or off the team. Then there is the Bohm situation if Stott tries it at third or Bichette goes to 3B.

       Personally I’d sign Jonah Heim as a the catcher first, then deal with Bichette. Taking this much effort and time for JTR means they are still not settled…Heim probably can be had for three years at $11M AAV.

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38. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the White Sox have agreed to a two-year, $34 million contract with Murakami….WOW !!! Reports were way off on his potential contract. Does this change anything for Okamoto and now might he be in play for the Phillies ?

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    1. Seems like a lot of teams were wary about giving him the money when there’s a lot of unknown about him being able to hit ML pitching AND his glove at the corners. Going to the White Sox for 2 years allows him to play every day and go for the bigger payday in 2 years.

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       1. Good move for the White Sox but I figured some team would gamble on his “potential”. As recently as last week it was being said he would get 8/160. 

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          1. It’s a great deal for the White Sox. They get a young, high potential player at a low cost.

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39. Penn State signed Japanese baseball player Soto today.

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    1. LOL

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40. Is anyone buying that Strahm was a bad clubhouse guy? I think they more so worry about the optics of saying we need to shave payroll…

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    1. Yeah, a little bit. I think the Strahm and Castellanos moves show the very strong power of Rob Thomson in the clubhouse and the organization. If you’re not rowing in the same direction as Rob and you don’t respond to his pretty polite nudges to get with the program, he’s going to ask the club to move on from you if you’re not essential personnel and neither Strahm nor Castellanos was essential personnel. That’s my take, in any event. By the way, I actually like Strahm the guy, but I think his lack of being with the program helped them to move on from him, although I don’t think it was the only consideration here.

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       1. I think his remark about Kerkering fumbling the little grounder in the play-offs and costing the game, and Strahm giving it up to lack of PFPs for the pitchers…….then Dombrowski had to respond…sealed his fate.

          Same way with Nick Casty and his response to Thomson sitting him.

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          1. I have no problem with Casty getting pissed. He was promised to be a starter at RF and that was taken away from him this year. However, he obviously could have handled it better. Hold your tongue and be a good soldier for the rest of the season and then ask for a trade during the offseason.

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             1. Was he though? If Harper doesn’t get hurt he’s the starting RF on this team. Casty was supposed to split LF/DH with Schwarber when he was signed.

                He has no one to be upset with but himself. He was one of the worst players in the sport last year and has under performed the majority of his contract. $20 million players don’t get benched without being afforded every possible opportunity.

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                1. JL, I think you got it right. Neither Castellanos nor Walker was promised anything but a paycheck and the handling of Walker provided evidence for anyone watching that a reduced role would accompany reduced performance.

                   I’m not seeing the evidence that Topper runs a lockstep operation. I don’t know why Strahm was moved and will wait to see how the off-season puzzle pieces fit together — or don’t. I don’t think that Ketel Marte and Luis Robert — both guys the Phils reportedly have had interest in — are lockstep guys. Like Castellanos, they’re fairly expensive commitments in either case. You can hire lockstep guys for less, if that were the criterion.

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                2. I don’t hate Castellanos and don’t think fanhate is the issue. I think he has overstayed his welcome in Philly. He thinks he is still an every day position player you can stick in the field somewhere in the face of a lot of evidence that he no longer is. You can say there are 2 sides to the story but the baseball world is offering its tacit point of view. Castellanos is not in demand. He and Walker carry the burden of having salaries that hamstring the improvement of a team bumping up against the 4th luxury tax tier. Castellanos is a smart guy. He has the ability to see this if he chooses to.

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             2. I DO have a problem with Casty being pissed. He massively underperformed his contract. He sucked and there he is getting all arrogant and nasty with the manager, who is a decent guy and just trying to win games? Casty – keep it real. Be glad you’re getting paid so much when you haven’t earned that salary and just keep a low profile rather than making it about you. He’s lucky the manager didn’t rip him a new one in the press – Topper’s too classy (and smart) for that for being disruptive and unproductive on the field, but he deserved it!!!

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                1. The hate toward Castellanos is unjustified. He didn’t stink in Philly but did underperform the first and fourth year of the contract. But he was great in the second year and good in the third year of his deal, averaging 26 HRs and 96 RBI with .454 slug. And he had a bonkers NLDS against the Braves in 2013. What was it, 5 HRs in four games? Overall, his contract probably rates as a C or C-.

                   And regarding his public feud with Thomson, just remember there are two sides to every story.

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                2. I don’t hate Casty, but when the Phillies are giving him $100M and he has 1.4 WAR to show for it, I’m not happy about that. It’s not as bad as Ryan Howard’s disastrous $125M extension but still.

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                3. I don’t hate him either, but the narrative that he was a good player for part of this contract is false. His highest overall WAR was 1.5 which is below replacement level and a few years he was negative for a $20 m/yr player. I don’t think he has dogged it (he definitely tries hard), and I don’t blame him for taking the huge contract the team gave him. I do blame him for being combative and difficult when he was not much better than any random guy they could pluck from AAA. If I were the Phillies I would also move on from him.

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                4. Also anyone with eyes knows Castellanos should have been subbed late in games for defense MUCH sooner than when Topper finally did it. The only reason they did not sub him out for defense was because they knew he was an oversensitive guy and his attitude/ego would become a problem, which it did.

                   If I were them I’d be looking to attach a prospect to his contract and try to get one of the bottom feeders to take on his deal.

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                5. The Phillies have tried this. They negotiated with a team but weren’t even willing to part with a pitcher who isn’t even in their top 30.

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41. Phillies sign Zach Pop to a major league contract. Does he have minor league options left?

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    1. Why?

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    2. I see he was optioned in 2022, 2023, and 2024 so I would think not.

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42. So what are the Mets doing? They didn’t re-sign Alonso and Diaz and they traded Nimmo and McNeil. Salary dump or not?

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    1. I think Bellinger or Tucker or Bregman may still be on their radar.

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43. Moffo – Pop’s numbers are really pretty bad. If they are hoping he will be stashed in the minor leagues for depth, I could see it. I imagine they can start him in the minors because I’m almost certain no team will claim him off waivers.

    If he’s on the 26 man list that breaks from spring training, that means the guy they got in the rule 5 draft goes back to the Marlins for half the $100K they paid for him. I guess they’ll see how he does in spring training. I can’t figure out this front office.

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44. Phillies should go hard after Adley Rutschman. He is a perfect buy low guy.

    I am firmly convinced that he has been remarkably unlucky the past two seasons. He is a great hitter.

    Let’s look at last year:
    – 11% walk rate. Great
    – 15.6% K rate. Excellent
    – average EV 89.4 best of his career
    – barrel % 7.5%, same as his career year of 2023
    – hard hit rate 38.6% same as 2023
    – soft contact, 11.6% lowest of career

    But his batting line was terrible due to a .240 BABIP. It’s inexplainable imo besides bad luck.

    Actually if you dig into his handed splits (as a switch hitter), he had a BABIP of .304 vs LHP but only a .212 BABIP vs RHP. Despite even K rates against both sides. He actually had a higher percentage of hard hit rate vs RHP than LHP, 37% vs 31%. And a lower soft contact vs RHP. 10.7% vs 13.8%. His low BABIP vs RHP was an outlier imo.

    He is a perfect buy low guy. I would offer Baltimore a strong package.

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    1. If Painter/Crawford and Miller are off the board, it will still cost a quality minor league pitcher…Wood I would think, and maybe a player like Aroon Escobar.

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       1. Romus you know he is first yr arb. Free agent in 28. That’s two yrs.I ain’t giving up two top prospects for two yrs of control

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          1. rocco……..if the Phillies made the trade, they undoubtedly would sign him for 5 more years.

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       2. Nori & Cabera? (Phils #6 & 11)

          Or

          Rincones & Fisher (Phils #9 & 10)

          Would Hopefuly get it done, but I doubt it. Rutsch is basically the Face of their rebuild.

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          1. Wood and Nori would do it to start. The others would probably be added value to a basic package.

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             1. First, I don’t sense the Orioles are looking to move on from Rutschmann, but if they were, they would seek a huge package. I think something like Wood, Nori and Escobar or Miller, Escobar and a couple of other top 10 prospects. I’d love to get him, but it’s not looking as if it’s likely to happen.

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                1. Well… if they signed Bichette…. I’d easily send them Wood, Nori, & Escobar for Rutshman then .

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       3. Not sure Wood + Escobar would be enough.

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          1. Yeah…may have to add another prospect piece to the deal.

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             1. I’m not sure a trade for Rutshman moves the needle that much. For me, I think I’d rather roll the dice with Marchan/Stubbs or add a Caratini or trade for another defensive catcher. If you upgrade from Bohm to Bregman (for example) that’s a 2 win upgrade at 3B. I’d like to hang onto Wood with Wheeler only under contract for 2 more seasons and Nola’s deal not looking great initially.

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45. Genei Sato a potential first round draft pick, is the kid who transferred , to penn State baseball. He is a pitcher

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    1. Shame he cannot throw a football.

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       1. Bigger shame he’s not at Temple or UPenn so he could go to Phillies games in his off time and fall in love with the team.

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          1. Sorry Dan…Temple no longer has a baseball team……Hockenberry one of the last Owl baseball players.

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             1. Yeah, I know. I was actually attending the year they cut it.

                Still ridiculous to me that they dump millions into a football team that is never all that good, but can’t just take a little loss to keep the baseball team going.

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46. Mets seem to be gearing up for some big moves…

    I can see them adding Tucker pretty easily now, to pair with Lindor & Soto. Thats a good move by them, if they have prospects to fill out the rest of the roster. Hopefully they can’t trade for Skubal, and the dodgers for that matter. I would toss out a hellva package for Skubal if he would sign an extension. Painter, Miller, Wood, Kerkering, Stott or Sosa, and probably Luzardo if DET still wants to be able to try for playoffs. I sure it would take some more.. but glad to give to get i this scenario. Need to replace the expected drop off from Wheeler. Swap their salaries at some point

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    1. I agree. I don’t think we should judge the Mets’ move too quickly. The may be adding high price talent and also believe in their farm system. They could actually end up being better than last year – we just have to see how it plays out.

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       1. In New York sports….nothing stays hidden for long.

          Did not realize Lindor and Jeff McNeil came to blows in 2024 in the clubhouse….Lindor grabbed McNeil around the neck…cooler heads stepped in. Then last June vs the Phillies , a defensive screw up in the field……Lindor shortstop, McNeil 2b….led to them again having a heated discussion in the locker room. Come the end of the season, McNeil wanted out. Apparently the team suffered, and now not surprised Polar Bear did not return.

          Ever since the Bronx Zoo days , the New York baseball scene takes a life of its own.

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          1. Romus – none other than Ruben Amaro had a podcast last week about the Phillies, of course, but the Mets winter actions were questioned by both Todd Z and Jim Salisbury (sp?}. In the podcast Ruben clearly stated unequivocally that Mets have had severe locker room problems – stemming mainly from Soto and Lindor absolutely disliking each other. While they are both LA players they come from different cultures. The team members had apparently sided with one or the other. I suspect what we are seeing is this division being slowly taken apart. It seems Diaz wanted out, as did Alonso. McNeil was also part of it clearly.

             We don’t know what the Mets will do – and the winter is still young – so it is hard to say they will be better or worse than last year – but I would guess they need another big bat behind Soto ; more pitching in both the pen and in the starting corp. They have the $$ but their GM is tight with the years and the money – he is too used to being the Brewers GM. Cohen is going to have to tell him to step it up or the players will have signed by the time they figure it out.

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             1. RU……the drama probably continues in the Big Apple and Flushing. Soto is probably on his way to the Hall of Fame…..what hat he wears will be the mystery since I think he will be that rare Hall of Famer that will be well traveled thru his career. I still think the Mets will move on him, to get a boatload of prospects,, in a few years -before he is 31-and he will still be relatively young.

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             2. Yikes. Soto and Lindor are both there long term. Hard to believe that the Mets will let this discontent go for that long. Lindor is still productive, I’m surprised they haven’t considered trading Lindor.

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    2. I’m not so sure about that. I do think Tucker’s price will have to come down before somebody bites, but even with their subtractions, the Mets are still hovering around $285M payroll (Soto and Lindor are a combined $94M for 2026). The Mets are paying Soto be a 5 WAR player.

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       1. Jpn Heyman of The New York Post, per MLBTR, has tne Mets interested in signing Austin Hays. I liken this to, back in the day, my interest in going down to the nearest news stand to pick up a newspaper. Why announce this? Something unexpected is happening this off-season if the Mets are registering interest in Austin Hays rather than backing up the Brinks truck for Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger.

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          1. If the Mets sign all three…Hays, Tucker and Bellinger…may cost them $70M plus AAV for this season alone. I could see Hays and Tucker to the OF, Bellinger to replace Alonso at first base and Soto as the DH.

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47. Philly.com haa a story about the tradition of Harry Kalas reciting T’was The Night Before Christmas with a link to a video of his recitation. It’s worth the couple of minutes to listen and watch and remember how fortunate we were to have Harry and Whitey for so many years.

    Merry Christmas, all.

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    1. I love it. That should ring out some more production out of him. Lock in his focus a bit more. Im sure, even he will admit it. He’s a family man now, and I’d bet he lost some focus along the way. A kick in the ego, nothing wrong with it. Looks like those comments worked to me.

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48. Harper posted a pic of himself on his TikTok with a “Not Elite” T-shirt taking batting practice in a cage. I think we will be getting a very motivated Harper next year.

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    1. The reality is Bryce remains more elite at what he does than the guy who said it is at his job.

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       1. you mean the future HOF GM who’s won WS championships in multiple cities? Yep, he’s terrible at his job.

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49. I like Dave Dombrowski more than Bryce Harper.

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    1. Steven……I do think Bryce will now temper his opinions on personnel matters in the future. Plus this season he may be more motivated to rebound.

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       1. This proposed behavior if carried out would make me like Bryce Harper more than I do now.

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          1. I would love nothing more than Bryce to have a top-5 MVP season so he can “stick it” to Dave and Co. However, when there was talk in August of Bryce not having the best year and if this was “Schwarber’s team,” Bryce commented something like, “I know the kind of player I am and I’m focusing on the postseason and you will all see me when the lights shine the brightest” (or something to that effect). That got me hyped up. I love when guys talk smack and back it up.

             Then he didn’t really back it up against the Dodgers.

             So even though he wants to make statements, I’m fine with it. Just back it up. But to be “elite” I think we are going to need strong defense, double-digit steals with a high success rate, and probably something like .290/.390/.500. I just don’t know if he can get back to that. And for me, that’s OK. He can still just be above average/very good.

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             1. If Harper can get a .900 OPS or higher I will be very happy.

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                1. Yeah, stick “to the man”! How dare they pay him only $26 million a year and speak the truth about his performance last year! He’ll show them!

                   I like Bryce Harper a lot as a guy and player (I think he truly is a good person) and his extreme competitiveness and views of his performance and abilities are what drives him to be great.

                   I don’t doubt he was hurt by what was said, but while this was an unforced public relations error by DD (he should have said nothing that could be perceived as being critical), but nothing he said was mean-spirited, buried Harper or untruthful!

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                2. “……unforced public relations error by DD….”

                   From what I have seen of Dombrowski, he carefully measures everything he says about his players. I think he got his message across. And they did eventually speak a few weeks later at the GM meetings and clarified things between themselves. Will have to see what happens this season.

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                3. No, I’ll stick with what I said. I think, regardless of whether he carefully measured out that statement or not, it was a stupid thing to say to Bryce Harper and didn’t help things one bit. Harper has a ton of pride and the last thing he wants is to be is publicly embarrassed (which he obviously was). What he said was not incorrect, but it was not a productive decision to get his point across to Harper, in my opinion. That could have been better done in a private conversation with Harper.

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50. Thanks, Andrew – that was well put and sort of sums up my sentiments too.

    Meanwhile, hoping Don from Indiana is ok – he seems to be in hibernation lately ?

    Back to the slow drip of the off season. Are Phillies done ? other than JT ?

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    1. RU. I am fine. Just chilling here in Indiana and texting with Ruff. It was 64 yesterday with a tornado watch, severe thunderstorm warning, heavy rain and now really strong winds and 15 degrees. Indiana!

       Just waiting to see what Phillies end up doing. Do wonder if JT may go elsewhere since this has gone on so long. He may feel disrespected for what he has done and what others are receiving. Who knows. It will all play out in the end.

       Thanks for asking. I almost posted on Christmas Day but couple others had.

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       1. Don…is it Roll Tide or Hossiers?

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          1. Have to go IU. But Bama will be a handful just like OSU and PSU. Losing defensive end will really hurt IU. I think IU can get by Bama but then if Oregon and OSU happen to be next that would be difficult. Most likely the team with the best players will win the title. One team has the best players and that is OSU. I recently saw a mock draft for 2 rounds. It had Oregon with 7, OSU with 5 though all 5 in top 20 or so. IU 2. You could throw Georgia into the mix as well.

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             1. OSU pays well.

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             2. OSU pays well.

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                1. Deep pockets. But lots of those these days. Really basketball and football are simply pro ball now at the college level.

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       2. Hi Don, it’s my understanding that the Phillies are the only team likely to meet his years and dollar requirements. FWIW, I’ve heard they have already caved in on the years (great! another old guy on a “too long” contract) now just waiting for the inevitable overpay.

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          1. Hi Jim. Hope all is well. Philadelphia Geritols. LOL Does look like this team may be really old really soon.

             I think Geritol is the correct word.

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       3. Don- glad to hear all is in good order and you are fine. Thought of you the other day when I saw a 1952 Bowman baseball card of your old coach, Eddie Stanky. The “Brat.” The original on base percentage player !!!

          I guess we need to recall that when JT was a free agent last time he didn’t sign until end of January. I imagine the agents are walking around his offer from Phils to see if they can improve upon it ? But there is some solace that – this will end some time sooner than later.

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          1. Thanks RU. Coach Stanky was a really feisty guy. But I really liked him. Can not say that for his assistant coach. I went through some old baseball cards yesterday that I found just to see if he might be in one. My buddy Ruff took care of me last year with some Coach Stanky cards. Very nice of him.

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51. Will the Phillies end up signing Tatsuya Imai on Friday? I read that last week that he hasn’t met with NYY and somewhere else that the Cubs could be out if the price tag gets up to the 150-200M mark.

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    1. There are rumors coming out that no team has given him a formal offer. This might work in the Phillies favor if he’s willing to accept a shorter contract (2/36 or 3/50) similar to Murakami.

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    2. Sorry dude…Braves signed him a few hours ago.

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       1. Just hoping this is an incorrect rumor.

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          1. looks like it is, it would’ve broke by now imo.

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52. If I was DD, here is how I would finish off the offseason:
    1. Sign Tatsuya Imai 5/$100 (basically the AAV that we had earmarked for JT)
    2. Trade Painter for Adley (Adley is cheap this year and next. Only $6.8 mil this year). Baltimore has Adley’s replacement already in Basallo. They desperately need pitching and Painter has Ace potential. I think they do this deal.
    3. Trade Casty, Bohm & Nori to Reds for Gavin Lux and a low A lottery ticket prospect. Yes, I am giving up a legit prospect to get off Casty’s 1 year $20 mil. Reds need a DH. It’s only a 1 year deal. Homecoming for Casty so maybe it lights a spark. Reds also need a 3B. Their current projected 3B is Ke’Bryan Hayes, who is had a .290 OB% last year with a .306 slug. The worst offensive regular in baseball. Lux is a utility player anda high energy guy. He’s cheap too.
    4. Take Casty and Bohm savings and give Bichette or Bregman. Personally I like Bichette, but would be happy with either. Whomever you pick is your 3rd baseman.

    Ok so here is what I just accomplished:
    – Swapped Imai for Ranger from last year’s team.
    – Swapped Adley for JT from last year’s team.
    – Swapped Bichette or Bregman for Bohm from last year’s team.
    – Added bench/utility Lux to last year’s team

    I also got much younger.
    – Imai is only 27. Ranger is 30
    – Adley is 27. JT is 34
    – Bohm is 29. Bichett is 27

    New lineup:
    1. Trea
    2. Schwarber
    3. Bichette/Bregman
    4. Harper
    5. Adley
    6. Stott
    7. Marsh
    8. Garcia
    9. Crawford

    That’s a major upgraded lineup.

    What do you disagree with?

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    1. Actually, my lineup would be:

       1. Trea
       2. Schwarber
       3. Bichette/Bregman
       4. Harper
       5. Adley
       6. Marsh
       7. Garcia
       8. Stott
       9. Crawford

       This is so much better of a lineup than last year’s team:

       -Bichette/Bregman over Bohm is a big upgrade. I love either of them sandwhiched between Schwarbs and Harper

       -Adley is really due for a big bounceback year. I noted above that his BABIP has been unlucky the past two years. He hits the ball hard at a high rate and has a low K rate. I love him in the 5 hole after Harper.

       -I am the high man on Crawford on this blog. I like him a lot and I think he is going to surprise a lot of people. His comp is Chandler Simpson.

       This is a really good lineup.

       SP staff is:

       1. Wheeler
       2. Sanchez
       3. Luzardo
       4. Nola
       5. Imai
       6. Walker

       That squad is an upgrade over last year and can compete with LAD.

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    2. I’ve beaten the drum for Rutschman this off-season and would love to have him. All the while, it’s not clear whether Rutschman is expendable and whether the Orioles see Basallo as the long term answer for them behind the plate.

       Losing Painter (and Ranger) thisoff-season would hurt but signing Imai would ease the blow.

       Your proposed trade with Cincy is key for getting the chips that make 1, 2 and 4 (above) conceivable. I would do this deal if/if if the Phils reach the point of salary agreement with Bichette (my preference) or Bregman. I would do 3 and 4 together even if 1 & 2 don’t work out.

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       1. I wouldn’t classify Adley as “expendable” by any means. I am offering the best RHP starting prospect in baseball for him. Elite SP prospects don’t get traded often. It’s a rare and valuable asset. And if Painters hits his ceiling, it would be a bad deal even if Adley returns to 2023 form. So I am offering real value in return.

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          1. Yes, Painter is a valuable asset that should not be traded for a declining player with only 2 years of control.

             Everyone complains the Phillies are getting too old so adding a 28-year-old catcher who’s already regressing makes little sense, especially at the cost of a top prospect in all of baseball.

             maybe Adley had a down year, but so did JTR if you look at his most recent numbers compared to 2025. I would rather gamble on a JTR bounce-back and keep the cost-controlled, potential TOR starter as well.

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             1. Adley isn’t regressing. Look at his stats more than just his batting average. He had a terrible BABIP the past two years. But besides that his hitting metrics are very good. All in line or better than his 2023 season when he was the best catcher in baseball. He is a switch hitter who walks a lot, strikes out at a low rate and has a high hard hit percentage and a low soft contact rate. Look beyond the batting average.

                Also, don’t pretend that Painter is a guaranteed Ace. He was so bad with his command last year that they changed their plans and didn’t bring him up. He obviously has injury risk. He clearly has elite upside. But there is risk with Painter too.

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                1. JTR consistently has had a higher hard-hit rate than Adley, even when Adley was “the best catcher is baseball”

                   And no one said that Painter is a guaranteed ace, nice strawman attempt. I said he was a potential TOR starter which is exactly what he is.

                   Not giving him up for 2-years of a hopeful bounce-back candidate.

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                2. The last three years:

                   JT’s K rate / BB % / HH %
                   25.6% / 6.5% / 32.9%
                   24.7% / 6.5% / 35.8%
                   23.5% / 6.4% / 31.9%

                   Adley:
                   14.7% / 13.4% / 29.9
                   16.1% / 9.1% / 28.6%
                   15.6% / 11% / 35.6%

                   Adley walks ~2x more. Strikes out ~40% less. And has similar hat hit rates. Adley is a better hitter and it’s not really close. How’s that strawman?

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                3. Strawman was the statement about Painter being a “guaranteed ace” which was never what I claimed.

                   If you are arguing that Adley is a better hitter than JTR you get no argument from me, I take that trade straight-up, but your argument is that Adley is better than JTR & Painter which is where I completely disagree.

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                4. It seems that we are going to have to over pay JT in both AAV and years to get him. IMO JT is definitely a declining player. Whereas, Adley is approaching peak years and his stats normalizing for BABIP are great. He is young and cheap and an all-star. Getting him now would be akin to when we first got JT.

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                5. Also, who’s stats do you use because those numbers don’t match what Baseball reference shows for K% and HH%.

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                6. Fangraphs

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53. Jonah Heim, 30 years old…the catcher for me. Jonah Heim was non-tendered by the Rangers in Nov 2025, making him a free agent after struggling offensively for two seasons following his standout 2023 WS year, leaving the Rangers thin at catcher but creating an opportunity for him to find a new team needing a starting catcher.  Maybe get him for three years on the cheap.

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    1. Heim and Marchan are the same players.

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       1. Well, I understand what you mean, but Heim actually had 2 years where he was a fairly decent offensive player so he could always bounce back. He’s also handled a starter’s load whereas Marchan has always been injured in a starting role. They are going to need a back-up better than Garrett Stubbs who can’t hit AT ALL. So what’s wrong with signing Heim and making him and Marchan fight it out for playing time? I don’t think you have to give Heim 3 years at all. Maybe one year and an option.

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          1. Plus he has a Gold Glove, handles pitchers very well and like Marchan, switch-hits……..I can see 3/$30M. until the next best catcher comes available.

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          2. I got no issue with Heim and Marchan as platoon. Just know that you are getting the same player.

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54. I’m not trading Painter for any catcher but that’s just me. Painters value far exceeds that of Rutschman in years of control alone.

    I like the rest of the plan from the lens of you have to make the finances work but…

    I’d rather not use a prospect to move 1 year of $20 mil to chase something that is very elusive even with a solid paper tiger.

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55. I agree with the commenters opposing a Painter for Rutschmann trade even though I like Rutschmann a lot. The Phillies must balance their payroll and they will only have 2 years of control for Rutschmann whereas they are likely to have the better part of 7 years of control of Painter. If you think Painter has ace potential – and he probably does – I think you’ve got go with that upside. By far the most valuable player in baseball is a high performer prior to free agency – that’s what they easily could have in Painter.

    Also, while I am not a big fan of Bohm (I mean, he’s okay, but he’s not any better than that), you have to keep in mind that Aidan Miller is coming. Most likely, he will play third base as long as Turner is the shortstop. I think there’s a really good chance that Miller turned the corner last August. If that’s the case, he could be a big contributor by the middle of this year. Not next year, this year. And if that’s what they have, and there’s no emergency at third right now, why the heck would they overpay for a guy like Bregman who will weigh down payroll in a 2 or 3 years with other aging stars – such a bad idea. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – I DON’T want Bregman. That is likely to be a very bad contract over the long haul – which is inexcusable if Miller has first division regular upside, which I believe he does.

    As for pitching, if I’m the Phillies, I want to lock up one long-term starting arm this offseason. I think they’ve already moved on from Ranger – that’s life in the big city – you can’t keep everyone. With that ship having sailed, I’m trying to lock down Luzardo who, while he has some inconsistency, has incredible ability and as much upside as anyone on the staff. This is the year to try to sign him, but if they can’t do that, by all means, try to sign one of the Japanese players and then you can just read and react next offseason with Luzardo.

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    1. While we’re looking at the roster, if I’m the Phillies, I’m definitely kicking the tires on Okamoto. Sometimes there are some really fine Japanese players who are a little under the radar but end up being outstanding big leaguers. If the price and years are low, I’m definitely thinking about him. It’s a risk, but he could be a reasonably-priced first division regular for the Phillies. If they signed him, they would have to move on from Bohm this offseason. I’d be curious how well he could play the outfield. I think this guy is really going to hit in the big leagues and he intrigues me, although admittedly, they would need to do some things to make room from him – he doesn’t fill an existing vacancy.

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56. With the air waves gone quiet over Imai and only 4 days to go I hope Cliff Lee’s wife is on the phone to Imai’s camp. Maybe she can sneak another signing over the line for the Phillies ? We know she doesn’t like cold weather (Cubs) and doesn’t buy the big Apple razzle dazzle (Mets, Yankees) so maybe she can pull it off.

    We can only hope ? They need to lock up another pitcher – now !

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    1. Sounds like Imai and his agent Scott Boras have met with 4 teams in LA but they don’t say who those teams are. The Cubs and Phillies have been rumored to be in on him so I would think they were 2 of the 4 teams. I believe I read that Imai said he won’t sign until Friday.

       https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25343138-tatsuya-imai-rumors-latest-mlb-buzz-ahead-pitchers-jan-2-posting-window

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    2. I liked V1’s suggestions because they came with the realization that there may be 72 reasons why a particular move can’t be made — that the alternative for the Phils is to run it back with a team that isn’t young to begin with. The second point is that unless the Phils shed some salary, each addition comes with a 110 % luxury tax surcharge.

       The omelette people seem to want involves breaking eggs recognizing other teams love and value their players and prospects as much as Phillies fans do.

       Paying a premium for a soon-to-be 35 year old catcher to a likely 3-year deal is about as bad a move as a front office can make. If the market demands you overpay slightly for an alternative, to me you go aggressively for the alternative.

       If the Castellanos contract hamstrings the making of moves needed to improve the team the front office has to pursue that possibility aggressively.

       No one on this site will lose his job by folding his arms and scotching any proposal to address some obvious shortfalls. But thePhils could be playing to some empty seats at the back end of the2026 season if Dombrowski adopts that approach. Part of the reason the Phils are where they find themselves currently is because Dombrowski has achieved too little in the past few off-seasons.

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       1. Let’s start with a basic question that is a key part of that that proposal. Why would a Reds team that carries a payroll of around $130 million take on $30 million (about 20% of their total payroll) for Castellanos and Bohm? To get Nori?

          Trades need to include a reason for the other team to make the deal as well and I see no reason Cincinnati would make such a trade, especially when they know there is no market for Castellanos and his $20 contract. They can just wait until he’s DFA’d and pay league minimum instead.

          Phillies are going to eat most, if not all, of the Castellanos contract to move him and Nori isn’t much of a sweetener.

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          1. “Why would a Reds team that carries a payroll of around $130 million take on $30 million (about 20% of their total payroll) for Castellanos and Bohm?”

             Two reasons:
             1. They made the playoffs last year so they are a good team that can add

             2. As I mentioned above, their 3B, Hayes, was the worst hitter in MLB last year. He is terrible. Casty is also an upgrade at DH. It is a salary hit for 1 year but they also add a legit OF prospect. This is a win for them for sure. It makes their 2026 team better and gives them a future asset.

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             1. and again, Cincy knows there is no market for Casty so why not just wait until he gets dfa’d and save about $19 million.

                sorry, but just can’t pretend that’s not the case because the Phillies need that money to make the rest possible.

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                1. That’s why I am offering a major upgrade at 3B and a top prospect. Did you not see that part of my offer?

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       2. Yeah, I think everyone realizes that the Phillies running it back is foolish and won’t work (you could even argue that bringing back Schwarber was not productive) and they need to change things up. But just because someone suggests a proposal that some of us don’t endorse doesn’t mean we think they should keep doing the same thing.

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57. Fun topic V1 – Overall it’s a good plan “if” all the moves worked out. It does shorten the window imo, but i’d counter with a different move for these 2 reasons:

    1- I Believe the Phillies matchup better with the Dodgers in the Playoffs with Painter, than Addy. Yes, this assumes he’s not a bust. The Dodgers SR could cream us…

    2- This teams identity is the SR imo, and keeping painter with the other prospects keeps that run going

    Based off your moves, you are adding 56mil assuming Bregman/bichette is 25m. You are subtracting – 30mil, ultimately adding 26m with 3 new big additions, and 4 subtractions. It’s good math.

    I sign Bichette(25m), trade for Arozerena (16m), and Imai (20), I subtract Casty, Bohm, Nori, Marsh, and let Realmuto walk.

    Lineup is: Turner (SS), Harper (1B) Bichette (2B/3B), Schwarber (DH), Arozrena (LF), Garica (RF), Stott (3B/2B), Marchan (C), Crawford/Rojas (CF) – Plug in Sosa for Stott if Stott doesn’t rebound offensively, Miller takes over 3B. Stott is trade bait for reliever at deadline. Outside the box maybe he’s a CFer or Turner is by the end of the year. Depends on how their hitting is going.

    Rotation: Sanchez, Wheeler, Luzardo, Nola, Painter, Imai…. One goes to the Pen during the playoffs like Yamamoto did.

    Bullpen gets a Boost from Wood or Painter come playoff time.. Gotta wonder If the 42mil man would do it with Duran.

    Plan B to this would be to Sign realmuto over Imai.

    Note: I’d trade Crawford before I’d r trade Miller or Painter, but obviously what to hoard them all.

    LikeLiked by 1 person

    1. • match is the Dodgers not Phillies – WordPress kills me
       • My first plan ultimately adds 26 to the budget (subtract Casty, Bohm,Nori, Marsh – 35mil) + (Add Bichette 25, 20 Imai, 16.5 for Arozrena) – Marsh & multiple highend Prospects go Wood & Eschobar)

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58. Just gonna throw this out there… You can all get your pitch forks ready …

    Sign Imai… (Wheeler, Sanchez, Imai, Painter,Nola)

    Trade Luzardo…For BOS Duran…

    Sign Bichette for an INF position… maybe even OF at some point.

    Resign Realmuto for 17mil a year

    Trade Casty+Bohm+Nori+others for salary dump, Marsh, while letting Sosa, Stott, & MIller

    All these moves add to 28.5mil to the current payroll:

    Subtract 5m for Casty, 10mil for Bohm, 5m for marsh, 12mil for Luzardo = 9m for Walker 41mil

    Adding 12m for Bichette, 20m Imai, 17 Realmuto, & 7.5 for Duran

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    1. Correction:

       Adding 25mil for Bichette, 20mil Imai, 17m for Realmuto, and 7.5m from Duran= 28.5 added

       Next year, you subtract 24mil from Casty & Walker’s contracts dropping.

       Thats my final offseason answer

       Turner, Harper, Bichette, Schwarber, Duran, Garcia, Realmuto, Stott, Crawford.

       Im assuming Painter & Miller survive the Duran trade with Luzardo being a big Piece – Luzardo, Marsh, Escobar, Chace… add either Rincones or Cabrera… or Wood if needed.

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       1. WTH!

          ‘Trade Luzardo…For BOS Duran…‘

          Are kidding me! The pitching staff, as it stands at this moment, is full of ‘ifs and buts’….Wheeler’s return from TOS…..Nola and Painter return from below par seasons……Ranger of course gone……Walker, we know that story. Only Sanchez seems to be the solid returning starter

          Duran is a quality OFer……..but try to get him for another player, other than Luzardo.

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          1. Let me explain the logic:

             I trade Luzardo because we need to make the money work, it’s protects your prospects, and you get to bring back realmuto for not much more than the V1 scenario. Imai & Painter shoud replace Luzardo & Walker’s production

             you add Bichette, Duran, and Garcia to the lineup, with Crawford & miller likely at some point. You resigned both captain schwarber & realmuto…Not bad

             the question is … how much worse is:

             wheeler, Sanchez, Luzardo, Nola, Imai, walker

             vs

             wheeler, Sanchez, Imai, Nola, Painter, prospect ?

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             1. ….and if Imai signs elsewhere, which is a strong possibility, where does that leave a starting pitching staff?

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             2. Look at Duran’s hitting vs LHP and you will change your mind on him. He is basically Marsh.

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                1. Yep…he is very Marsh-like, and like Marsh, his defense makes up a sizable portion of his positive WAR.

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    2. Creative ideas. I just don’t like Duran. He cannot hit LHP. Also Luzardo can get a lot more than Duran. He is an excellent SP. I know that he has one more year left but still he could get more than Duran.

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       1. V1/Romus

          I only trade Luzardo if Imai signs. Keep him if not.

          I picked Duran over Arozrena/Roberts because of their contracts & potential. If Duran can’t hit LF, that sucks but he does hit 15hrs&40 doubles. That part is pretty nice. I would think the Redsoxs might be willing to take marsh if not unload him elsewhere for salary relief.

          the key is for Imai to sign, then the FO can get crazy as hell reshaping this team.

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59. where is Kemp in all these fantasy lineups? Isn’t DD high on him?

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    1. Excellent question. If he can be the subordinate half of a LF platoon, he will exceed expectations for a UFA.Bonus points if he can hit some right hand pitching and fill at 3B, as needed. If he can provide the right handed bat protection for the lefty bats, the city will be greasing the street light poles in anticipation of a Broad Street parade,

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    2. who?
       🙂 … I hear you… I’ll admit I forgot about him. But I’ll say he is to the Bench to fight his way into the everyday lineup, or trade bait. I do have hype to him again after learning he was injured.

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60. There is a lot of smoke online connecting the Phillies with Imai. Enough to make me think that they are serious about signing him. No guarantees they get it done, but let’s be clear, if they do get it done, then one of the SPs is being moved. It’s obviously not Sanchez or Wheeler. I love Luzardo and would love to lock him up for a long term deal now. But maybe they move him like Tac is suggesting. But what about this idea…Trade Nola with a slight buy down? Nola is making $25m AAV over the next 5 years. That’s rich, but I bet a team would give up a good player to get him at $15m AAV over the next 5 years. Maybe even $20m AAV.

    Would Baltimore (who is starved for pitchers) trade Adley for Nola with a buy down to $15m AAV? Obviously I would rather that path if they would do that deal over moving Painter.

    Don’t get me wrong here, I don’t want to trade Painter if there is another path. But it is very very hard to get a high impact catcher.

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    1. https://x.com/MetCastPod/status/2006147707086225678?s=20

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    2. I traded Nola for a picture of Romus. Without his wig. Would baltimore take that contract?

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    3. Interesting thought. Do you think Nola would waive his no-trade though?

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       1. Middleton would probably have to be the one to waive himself in trading him. Like Monty before him, he fell in love with the ’05-’12 guys and did not want to let them go. Pretty soon business decisions are put aside for emotional and ‘familial’ decisions. Which has its merits, but does come with some disappointed results.

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    4. Imai follows Zack Wheeler on instagram. What if the plan is to sign him, keep some pressure off of Painter and Wheeler returning and then go to a 6 man rotation during the dog days of summer to limit Wheeler, Painter, Imai, Luzardo’s innings? They wanted to do that last year until Wheeler got hurt. Also saw a Painter workout video online today and he was just throwing fastball but it looked like that command was pretty good.

       Herehttps://x.com/CresseySP/status/2006150116411949258

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       1. Maybe that’s the plan.

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61. I love the fact that MLB.com doesn’t view Justin Crawford as an “exciting prospect set for a professional debut in 2026.”

    I hope the kids just slaps the ball all over the place and steals 40 bases.

    20 exciting prospects set for professional debuts in 2026

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    1. Only 5 OFers…mostly pitchers and shortstops on the list…..I think Crawford would do better than a few of those OFers based on minor league production and also his youth.

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       1. Is it too much to ask that Crawford is hitting .280 in July and he gets moved up to the 2-hole? I’d really love to see Turner-Crawford at the top, but Crawford has to earn it.

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          1. It’s funny, after being somewhat unenthused about Crawford, he has won me over. I know the pundits are down on him a bit because, well, he hits the ball on the ground too much, and it’s a legitimate concern. But he is evolving as a hitter. His growing plate discipline is enormous and correlates well with success at higher levels and I think he has a true 65 hit tool. Couple that with the fact that I think he is learning how to drive the ball better and you have very interesting, and improving, young player. I definitely think .265-.280 is possible, with a passable walk rate, and hopefully, good defense.

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          2. Between both AA and AAA pitching…..approx 1000 PAs…his BB Rate was 9% and K Rate less than 20% at 18%. He should be able to make contact and with his speed should have a relatively high BA.

             He could surprise many and be at .300 or better by July.

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             1. I think it usually takes a while before a guy can hit .300 in the majors, especially considering how good MLB pitching is these days. I mean, Turner won the batting title with a .304 average – that tells you a lot. If he’s hitting over .300 by July, then he’s a star in the making. I think realistically, if he’s in the .265-.280 range, he’s way ahead of schedule – I’d be more than happy with that.

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                1. I’d say if the kid is hitting .270-ish in the 9-hole, move him up to #2 hole and see what hitting behind trea and in front of Kyle can do for him.

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                2. The 9 hole is perfect for Crawford. No pitcher is going to want to put him on base with a walk. They will give him fastballs especially since he doesn’t have power. I am very high on Crawford. He will definitely be an upgrade over last year.

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                3. I don’t think moving him up to the 2 hole would really do anything for Crawford (in other words, I don’t see him performing any better or worse in the 2 hole than somewhere else in the line-up) but I think it might do something for those hitting 3 through 6. Crawford has a profile to do well in 2 hole given his contact ability.

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                4. Right Catch-

                   Having him in the 2-spot would help lengthen the lineup. And I know Bryce “prefers to hit in the first inning” but oh well. Sometimes you might lead off the second.

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       2. Apparently Painter isn’t exciting. Or maybe they aren’t sure he makes his debut.

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62. Went to bed last night in 2025 and woke up in the 1970s. Crawford doesn’t profile as a top of the order hitter in a modern baseball line-up anymore. Most teams have their best hitters batting 1st/2nd/3rd and are more interested in power/run production than speed/contact at the top.

    I have high expectations for Crawford but he’s going to be a bottom of the order bat for the foreseeable future. Batting him 9th give him the chance to get on-base for Turner/Harper/Scharber as the line-up turns over which is just fine. Also, as V1 notes, he will get plenty of pitches to hit with the top of the order following him.

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    1. Two interesting comps for Crawford:

       1. Xavier Edwards who does bat leadoff for the Marlins (albeit for a bad lineup). Near zero power. 8% walk rate and a 14% K rate, slap hitter with a 24% line drive rate.
       2. Chandler Simpson who batted leadoff for 300 of his 441 PAs for a good hitting Rays team. Zero power. only a 4.5% walk rate with an amazing 9.8% K rate. He hit ground balls 59.4% of his contact with a 24% line drive rate.

       As a reminder, for BABIP, Line drive rate is really far more important than ground ball rate. The babip of a fly ball is similar to that of a line drive, so for a player with 70+ speed and no power, you would want a ground ball over a fly ball 100% of the time. The key is line drive rate, walk rate and K rate. The rest is noise. Ignore anyone who writes off Crawford due to his ground ball rate. they don’t know what they are talking about.

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       1. What works into a favorable BABIP also is player’s speed, especially to first base…..Crawford with a 70 is a plus.

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          1. That’s why it is better for him to hit ground balls instead of fly balls.

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       2. Shooting from the hip here, but how does Crawford comparre to a young Jimmy Rollins? Not MVP Rollins.. but if I remember correctly Jroll had power concerns. I rememeber him getting ragged on for swinging for the fences, but he eventually did hit for 30hrs. Im not saying Crawford is JRoll.. but he could have a similar batting evolution, maybe with less power. He’s got the genes, so will see.

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          1. I think he’s very different from J. Roll in a numerous ways. They play different positions, they have totally different body types, their swings and strengths as offensive players are very different. I mean, both are/were fast and had some power potential, but, on the whole, these are extremely different players.

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       3. I think Crawford has much more power (or better stated, extra base power) potential than either of these two players. He’s big, strapping kid who, over time, should drive the ball. He also has learned how to draw walks. I repeat this fact because it is extremely important for Crawford. It will improve one of the most important facets of his game – OBP – while also ensuring that he doesn’t at too many bad pitches. Crawford, I believe, also has an extraordinary hit tool – the kind that you just can’t teach – and it will serve him well. His ceiling is basically a mid-career Kenny Lofton – basically, an all-star and possibly generational talent (Lofton should be in the HOF). A more realistic expectation is a less-weird and more consistent Odubel Herrera with a better hit tool and OBP – a really solid first-division regular. That’s not a bad outcome – Herrera had two 4 WAR seasons and I think Crawford can definitely be better than him.

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          1. What is more difficult to tell, for me, is how good Crawford will be this year and I really have no idea.

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    2. I am hoping he will be more than a lifetime ….284/319/.343 Ben Revere hitter,

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63. throwing out some final “what if’s” for the year:

    What if Rojas is better than Crawford? Seems unlikely but… Mr Rojas is Apparenlty having a good offseason. Will see if that translates to this year. If so, would be nice tradebait.

    What if Kemp is a “Hoskins-esque” bat with crappy defense? So basically a Hoskins clone 🙂 Where are you putting him? LF for now, but he could force a trade if does well.

    What if the Phillies do sign Bichette and both Kemp & Miller are ready? Better hold off on that LFer upgrade until the deadline… or the bullpen is going to be nasty for the playoffs.

    Let’s dream, should be a fun year. Imai is the 1st step, really hope they can get him … and he’s actually outstanding.

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    1. Let me give you my responses to your questions (and I’ve modified some of your assumptions that I think are not likely, such as Rojas becoming a solid big league hitter).

       1. If Rojas is better than Crawford then we are in big trouble because nothing we’ve seen suggests that Rojas is any better than a 5th outfielder in the big leagues.
       2. If Kemp can hit like Hoskins, we’ve hit the motherload because Hoskins was quite a good hitter and Kemp is a MUCH, MUCH better athlete than Hoskins and is likely to be able to hold down the fort in the outfield – or at least just be passable. Hoskins wasn’t passable in left.
       3. If the Phillies sign Bichette (not what I want, but there are worse decisions the Phillies could make) and both Kemp and Miller are the real deal, either Bohm or Stott gets traded (Turner isn’t moving off short anytime soon) so Miller can get first team reps, Kemp steals time in left and right and Adolis Garcia is just here for one year (and shares time with Kempt).
       4. You’re welcome – lol.

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64. Red

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65. Red Sox get Luzardo and Bohm

    Royals get Duran and Stott

    Phils get Jensen and Tolle/Early

    Phils save about 25 million on the deal plus the 20 they don’t pay JT. Offload Casty for even 5 in savings you are at 50 million

    Bichette 6-180 and Imai 4-90

    Bichette to 2nd and Sosa/Moncada platoon at 3rd until Miller is ready

    Sanchez, Imai, Nola, Tolle/Early, Painter/Walker until Wheeler is ready.

    incentive laden deal for Kopech

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