Winter Meetings Week

Other Stuff

The Phillies and 29 other organizations will descend on Orlando this week for their annual winter meetings.

I went for a day when they were last here.  I may drive out, maybe not.  It wasn’t as interesting as I thought it would be.  We watched the Hot Stove in the main lobby and that loud guy rom NY in one of the adjunct hallways.  All the baseball people were on the second floor and off limits.  We did have a long talk with Jim Salisbury.  And I later spoke with him and Jon Heyman.  I had a tidbit for Jim that I neglected to pass on during our earlier talk.  Jon seemed surprised that I knew what I shared.  Other than that, it was a long ride for a somewhat disappointing experience.  I’m glad I went but don’t know if it’s worth going again.

This will serve as your Phillies discussion.

The MLB Draft Lottery will be televised on the MLB Network on Tuesday, December 9th, live at 5:30 PM.  This is of little interest for Phillies fans.  Not only don’t they get to be in the lottery, but their draft position drops ten slots due to their spending overages.

The Rule 5 Draft will be held on Wednesday, December 10th at 2:00 PM.  It will stream live on MLB.com.  It runs pretty quickly, much faster and shorter than the Rule 4 Draft.

Baseball America posted an article listing “every player eligible” for the Rule 5 Draft.  The article is not behind their paywall.  They list 35 Phillies players.  It is not accurate.  I’m not sure if it is their version of the Lehigh Valley (Triple-A) roster as stated in the article or every draft-eligible player which is also stated in the article.

You know I track this stuff as well as rosters, transactions, and injury lists.  It’s a little tedious, but I find that I’m pretty accurate, sometimes even 100% accurate.  If it’s supposed to be the roster going into the draft, it isn’t accurate, off by a handful of players.  If it’s supposed to be all draft-eligible players, it’s off considerably, by about almost 12 players.

The Phillies guard this like it’s gold.  But I think there are anywhere from 3 to 8 openings on the roster going into the draft.

Major League Free Agency

2025-26 Free Agent Position Players (updated 12/6/2025)

2025-26 Free Agent Pitchers (updated 12/6/2025)

These files will be posted on the menu above – Agreements, Rules, Rosters, etc.

Transactions – no December transactions yet.  They signed a pitcher back in November.  The transaction posted a few days ago.  He’ll be Rule 5 Draft-eligible.  Not the waiver claim.  He goes onto the 40 for now.

11/21/2025 – RHP Daniel Robert elected free agency
11/21/2025 – RHP Michael Mercado elected free agency
11/21/2025 – Phillies claimed RF Pedro León off waivers from Baltimore
11/18/2025 – LHP Adam Seminaris assigned to Lehigh Valley
11/18/2025 – Phillies signed FA LHP Adam Seminaris to an MiLB contract

Important Dates – Bold text is used for the dates I’m pretty certain are accurate.  Italics (and a date range) are used for those which I don’t have solid dates.  Select dates listed here.  The complete list is in the article posted on the menu.  A separate article with dates only will be coming out shortly.

  • November 18, 2025: Deadline for XX(B) free agent players to accept or decline qualifying offer by 4:00 p.m. ET. 
  • November 15-19, 2025: Last date to ask Outright Waivers on an injured player
  • November 18-20, 2025: Quarterly owners’ meetings in New York
  • November 18, 2025: Rule 5 Protection Deadline – Reserve lists for all Major and Minor League levels filed by 6:00 p.m. ET (Transactions MUST be entered by 5:30 p.m. ET)
  • November 21, 2025 (8:00 p.m. ET): Non-Tender Deadline – Final day for clubs to tender/non-tender contracts to unsigned players on the Major League Reserve List (40-man roster) who have less than 6 years of service time including arbitration eligible players.  Non-tenders become free agents.
  • December 4-8, 2025: Last date to request Outright Waivers to assign player prior to Rule 5 Draft
  • December 7-11, 2025: Baseball Winter Meetings, Orlando Florida
  • December 9, 2025: MLB Draft Lottery
  • December 10, 2025: Major League Rule 5 Draft – Winter Meetings, Orlando FL
  • December 15, 2025 (5:00 p.m. ET): International signing period closes
  • January 15, 2026 (9:00 a.m. ET): Opening of the 2026 international signing period
  • Mid-February: Spring Training begins
  • July 11, 2026: 2026 MLB All-Star Futures Game, Philadelphia PA
  • July 12-13, 2026: MLB First-Year Player Draft, Philadelphia PA (Phillies drop 10 slots)
  • December 1, 2026 (11:59 p.m. ET): MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement expires.

Note: These dates will be used unless/until notified differently.  (Note that there are many more dates to add from Spring Training through the end of the 2026 season and calendar year.  I will add when I have accurate dates for them.)

254 thoughts on “Winter Meetings Week”

    1. It’s good for baseball that the Pirates spend money, but a 4 year deal? Schwarber already got paid by the Phillies ($80M) so he’s looking to get paid AND go to a contender. The Pirates should know that 4 years is not going to cut it. If they went to 6 years, then that’s a serious offer.

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    2. The Pirates spending money is a good thing but a 4 year deal? They had to know that 4 years is not going to get it done. The Pirates would need to overpay to sign Schwarber, at least a 5 year deal but more likely a 6 year deal.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. A team like the Pirates with a very minimal payroll and no worry at all about a Luxury Tax hit could offer 4 years at an insane AAV.

        It’s not likely to work of course but if I could make a $160 mil in 4 years instead of 5 why wouldn’t I?

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  2. So Jeff Kent (55.4 WAR, 1 MVP, 377 HRs) was voted into the HOF. Will that improve Chase Utley’s odds (64.6 WAR)? That MVP award looms large.

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      1. Talked to my buddy about Jeff Kent going to the HOF and here’s what he said:

        First, it’s a travesty that Kent is in before Whitaker. Second, Kent had more WAR in his early to mid 30s (during the steroid era) than when he was in his 20s. You can infer whatever you want about that.

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    2. Lou Whittaker, with a WAR 20 points higher than Kent’s, should be in before Utley.

      It strikes me that this is the same HOF committee that waited until after Dick Allen had died before granting him admittance.

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      2. I am a huge Lou Whitaker fan and it’s a crime that he’s not in the HOF, but, for my money, I do not rank Whitaker ahead of Utley. Whitaker was a very fine, often outstanding, ballplayer who was consistent and produced good WAR over a long career. Utley’s career (at least while he was healthy) was shorter and was impacted by injury. But Utley had a 6 year period where he was arguably the best player in baseball. And Utley had the star quality where he raised his play in the most high pressure, high profile moments. When I watched Utley play, I absolutely thought he was a HOFer. But Lou Whitaker was also a fine player and both should (and I hope will) end up in the HOF.

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          1. There are a bunch of guys who totally flew under-the-radar and deserve to go in. Whitaker is first – just as Bert Blyleven was when he went in (and, after him, Larry Walker, who deserved his call to the Hall). After that, excluding the steroid dudes (I’m not touching that subject here with a ten foot pole), Bobby Grich and Graig Nettles both deserve to go in and I am totally fine admitting Don Mattingly who, at his peak, was one of the finest baseball players I’ve ever seen.

            I am curious what will happen with Buster Posey. Not a lot of career WAR, but, without him, do the Giants even win one WS, let alone three? Perhaps not.

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            1. I don’t think Buster Posey will get in. Only 45 WAR but he has a MVP and 3 titles. He can hit but he never had the HR numbers (like Piazza) or the glove (like Rodriguez) and he retired early.

              But if Harold Baines can get in with 38.8 WAR, then anything is possible.

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            2. Yeah, but typically short catcher career, ROY, MVP, 7 time all-star, 7 year peak above average HOF catcher . . . he’s a dark horse for sure, but it’s a closer call than you might think.

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            4. Yes, he did.

              Don Mattingly had similar WAR numbers, but Mattingly wasn’t a catcher and wasn’t a centerpiece on three championship teams. But there’s no doubt that, having less than 50 WAR will work massively against Posey’s candidacy.

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  3. 8 open spots on the roster for the Phillies and if anyone gets traded or released those spots would also get a new face.

    The line up still needs a very good right handed and left handed bat added. Most likely at OF, DH, 3B.

    JT is likely the best option at C

    A very good RH RP and depth there along with another SP is likely on the shopping list.

    At least 2 OF are needed but I would not be surprised if Rojas & Marsh are shopped too.

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  4. Bit of a side note, and I do understand offering the most money usually helps… but it guys like Schwarber & Realmuto do resign with the Phillies… that says a lot about this team. Whether you agree if it’s a good move or not is a different story. Both these players could likely sign with just about any serious team. It’s their last realistic chance to pick a team they believe will give them the chance to win a championship. If they sign with Philly, thats a big mindshift from about a decade ago. Take out the golden years of Rollins,Utley, Howard, & Hamels… I think you gotta give credit to Middleton for making that happen, as well as the nuts (Phans) that have made Red October so fun. Players, given the chance, want to be here. Having Harper has helped as well.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I’d like to add to that. I could be wrong on some of the details, but didn’t Cliff Lee take less to be here? We know Wheeler did. I know I’m forgetting someone else.

      But the point is, I think Middleton deserves a lot of credit for the Phillies organization being a first-class one. From what I’ve seen and heard, it really seems like they care about the community, their player’s, their player’s families, etc.,. A lot of players that leave heap nothing but praise on the organization. And yes, we have guys taking less money to come here.

      I think all those things can be attributed to Mr. Middleton.

      Liked by 1 person

      2. I don’t recall if Wheeler took less to come to Philadelphia (5/118). He was a good (not great) pitcher when he hit FA and he had TJ years ago. Whatever discount Wheeler gave the Phillies, it was paid back when the Phillies gave him 3/126.

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      3. As a supplement to your comments – I believe I am correct in saying Jason Werth influenced Harper to come to Philly because of the organization and its strong points. I also think there are other players who have encouraged free agents to join the Phillies family, particularly in the last five years.

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      4. The bottom line is that top to bottom, the Phillies are a nice and decent organization. They treat their players, employees and fans like extended family. This attitude goes right down to the ticket office. If you call them and ask for a reasonable favor, guess what, they will pretty much always do it if it’s not too difficult. And you get the exact same feeling when you go down to spring training.

        They genuinely care and are genuinely nice and they have a well-deserved reputation for being like that.

        Liked by 1 person

  5. I have been following this site for a very long time. I remember when Jim took over. I don’t say much, I prefer to read what others have to say, right or wrong. For example, we talked about Freddie Galvis’ hit ability for what seemed like everyday from 2009-2012. Most were wrong about Freddie Galvis, he hit over 100 MLB career homers.

    I’m old enough to remember when the Phillies thought of themselves as a small-market team in the late 1980s/early 1990s. It was much worse to be out of it in July than losing to the playoffs the last few years., IMO. I work in the hospitality industry, and took care of Mr. Middleton regularly for about a year. A good guy. We talked wine more than we talked about baseball. He has a similar goal as the Eagles: to be competitive each and every year, and to create a family atmosphere where players want to be.

    Middleton (and Lurie) don’t want to ever have to “rebuild” again. It used to be the same for the Flyers under Snyder. And as a player, I think the family atmosphere and chance to winch and every year is a real draw for players. This is a good business decision: keeps the seats full, and attracts the best talent. Star players are willing to sign a 7-yr deal when they know they will likely have a shot each and every year. Middleton is going to spend. If spending another 20 million will get him a World Series win, he will do it. Players know that, and it makes the team even more attractive. The atmosphere at the stadium is also a major draw for many players. And though the downtown Philadelphia has not been what it was pre-COVID, there is still a vibrant night life and restaurant scene that you won’t find in St Louis or Detroit.

    On a side note: I’m moving to Tampa in a few weeks. Is there an Phillies/Eagles bar for games? Looking forward to catching as many spring training games as possible this year. Jim, would love to buy you a beer, or at least some sunscreen.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Pismo55 – thanks for your note – I really enjoyed reading it and wish you well in Tampa. I am a snowbird and spend half my year in Sarasota and attend as many spring training games as I can – usually at least 15 or more. Don’t miss a game or two at the Pirates complex if you want an interesting “away game.” If you ever go to Ed Smith stadium in Sarasota for a Phils/O’s game look me up. Thanks again…

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  6. Some of my thoughts this off-season:

    • Schwarber vs. Alonso: Love Schwarber, but it’s looking like the Phillies will need to give him 5 years to get him to stay, and I think that’d be a mistake. IMO – Schwarber seems a bit over-valued in this market. Alternatively, Alonso to me is under-valued and also provides a RH power bat to protect Harper. I’d prefer giving Alonso 4 years / $120M > Schwarber 5 years / $140-150M.
    • Bohm vs. Stott: If the Phillies decide to shake things up in their infield, I’d be more inclined to trade Stott > Bohm. Bohm seems to have low trade value. He’s also their best RH bat not named Turner and I think there’s still upside with the bat. The locker room concerns with Bohm I think are overblown. Stott having an additional year of control makes him more valuable. If they can package Stott + Escobar + mid-level prospects (if necessary) for Ketel Marte, I’d do it in a heartbeat. To get a Marte-caliber player in a trade for Bohm, you’d need to package Painter/Miller in that deal. I’d opt towards trading Stott > Bohm if that can prevent them from selling the farm.
    • Other buy-low targets: Brenton Doyle, Sandy Alcantara, Adley Rutschman would all be guys I’d at least call about if I were DD. If they can get any of those guys for a combination of Marsh, Strahm, Alvarado, Rojas, Nori, Escobar, Burkholder, Cabrera, etc., I’d pull the trigger.
    • My ideal off-season:
      • Re-sign JT to a 2 year deal
      • Sign Alonso 4 years $120M
      • Trade Stott + Escobar for Ketel Marte
        • Update: sounds like the D-Backs want young pitching, so perhaps this is off the table unless they give up Painter (which I wouldn’t).
      • Trade Marsh + Burkholder for Brenton Doyle
      • Longshot: sign Imai

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    1. Believe it or not, that’s not enough for Doyle. The Rockies are holding out for more.

      I don’t get it. After three mostly full seasons, he’s a career .235/.284/.394/.678 hitter with an OPS+ of 78. He averages 173 strikeouts per year. He averages 27 SB and 19 HR and has 2 GG.

      He had one good offensive season in 2024 with 4.0 WAR. He posted 0.8 in 2023 and 0.1 in 2025.

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    2. should still sign pete, mets are a more de facto choice for NBP guys i feel as they’ll try to be the LA of the east since Yanks don’t have that build. what was the old saying

      “We’re going into this expecting to spend money, and maybe even be a little bit stupid about it.”

      Lets Do This!

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  7. I don’t know why y’all think that Lee gave the Phillies a discount. He was the highest signed free agent pitcher out of the 2011 class at 5/$120M and the third highest player overall behind outfielders Carl Crawford 7/$142M and Jayson Werth 7/$126M. He had the highest AAV among all players signed that offseason at $24M.

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    1. Agree….Lee rejected the Yankees over the Phillies. IDK what the Yankee offer, but the Phillies paid him well. Understand his wife went to a Yankee game and decided she rather not have to endure that atmosphere especially when her husband pitched.

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    2. Like many others, I’d like Schwarber back on a reasonable deal. I’d give Schwarber till December 15 tp pull the rip cord. That’s as long as I would wait to jump in the off-season pool.

      My thought is that Plan B involves getting younger and turning slightly Japanese. December 22 is the deadline date for signing Murakami and I would turn my attention to signing Murakami and Imai after December 15.

      Murakami competes at 3B with Bohm and Kemp with 1 of the losers becoming the DH.

      With those signings, I’m content with the Phils running it back with Realmuto and Bader on 2-year deals and a Luke Weaver or Tyler Rogers as a right-handed set-up man.

      With no Schwarber, I have no monster free agent signings but spread money around among these 5. It’s not an inexpensive roster but could compete in 2026 and in 2027 when $38M comes off the books. And it gets the Phils into the field of view of top Japanese players.

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        1. If that’s the case, he’s not returning back to Philadelphia.

          I don’t think the Phillies will rely on an OF of Kemp, Marsh, Crawford. They will likely bring in an OF on a 1 year deal, similar to Max Kepler.

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        2. Nightingale reports that the Phils are about to sign Schwarber for 5/150 M, so Murakami would appear to be redundant.

          If “longer than two years” encompasses two with an option for a third, I could be in on that. 3 years @ 15 M is too rich.

          I still like Imai as a way to break into the Japan market. If the large market Dodgers continue to corner the Japan market.I count on the Phils’ leadership to be smart enough to realize their competitive position is untenable.

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    3. Jim hope I am not being redundant , what are you thought after seeing ,Crawford, Painter would you move them .

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      1. I would not trade Crawford. If the Phillies are not going to play him every day next season though, then they may as well trade him. He has nothing left to prove in the minors.

        Regarding Painter: He came back from TJ retaining his velocity. He took his lumps battling command issues but that may still return. He’s been throwing in south Florida, and the Phillies know how he is coming along. Much like Abel the previous year, he continued to pitch all season. Therefore, he has built up his arm strength to pitch even more innings this season. No, I would not trade him unless the reports the Phillies are receiving are negative. I remember watching his sides on the seven mounds at the Complex. His command was something to behold. He would motion the catcher’s glove to a spot and hit the glove. He may not ever recover such unnatural command, but we can hope.

        Liked by 3 people

    4. He turned down more guaranteed money/years from TEX and NYY I believe, would have to go back and confirm. I think both teams were in on him at 6.

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      1. From what I remember, it wasn’t so much that he gave us a discount but rather that he really WANTED to play here.

        The story I remember being told was that Lee’s agent and Amaro were in constant communication. The Phils initial offer wasn’t close enough to what Lee was getting from other teams, but Lee didn’t want to pull the trigger on those larger deals because he didn’t get the same feeling from those teams/cities as he did from Philly. So his agent said something like, “is it killing you as much as it’s killing us that we’re so close but still apart?” So the Phillies upped their offer to be more in the same range as his other offers and Lee immediately jumped on that without asking for counter-offers from the higher bidders.

        Liked by 1 person

  8. John Morosi saying the Phillies are one of two teams in on Marte.

    https://x.com/SleeperPhillies/status/1998089259421745397?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1998089259421745397%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

    Also Zolcki says their is mutual interest in Don Mattingly joining the team as the bench coach job.

    https://x.com/ToddZolecki/status/1998151183664308304?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1998151183664308304%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

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  9. Morosi suggested the Phillies and Blue Jays had inquired about Marte two weeks ago. An Arizona writer reported that as many as 7 teams were interested a month ago and that he wasn’t being shopped the D-backs were just listening. Since then, the list of known interested teams has grown to include the Red Sox, Rays, Tigers, Mariners, Pirates.

    It’s going to be an expensive get, they will likely want controllable, MLB-ready young pitching. Only Painter in the Phillies organization fits that description.

    Marte has played second base almost exclusively the past 4 seasons.

    Marte is owed $91M over the next 5 years. He has deferrals. His yearly salary increases by $500K for 500 and 550 plate appearances, $750K for 600 and 625 plate appearances, and $3M for a top three finish and $2M for a 4th through 7th finish in MVP voting. Note that he was 4th in 2019 and 3rd in 2024 in MVP voting and has exceeded 550 PA the last 4 seasons and 650 PA in 2023.

    So, there are more than 2 teams interested in Marte and he is entering the expensive years of his contract with incentives that can increase his salary from one year to the next.

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      1. As Rick Hahn (former White Sox GM) said last night as a GM you may not be shopping a player but you takes calls to see if someone wants to get stupid LOL

        I enjoy the Network most I think when they have former GMs on at this time of year. I haven’t seen Dan O’Dowd in a while and he was absolutely my favorite.

        It was also said last night I believe by Heyman that Schwarber would be the first major chip to fall and then others will fall in behind that market once its created.

        Seemed to also state that its the Phillies and no one else really. He’s been plenty wrong before but I have always agreed Kyle was coming back.

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        1. Yeah DO’D has been absent…wonder what happened. He ws always pleasant to listen to when talking GM stuff.

          Listened to Tigers PoBO Scott Harris yesterday…..so young. They are stacked with young prospects coming up.

          Liked by 1 person

        1. Nope. The D’backs want/need young, controllable, MLB-ready starting pitching. Sanchez would get it done, but why would we trade him? The only other healthy pitchers that fill the bill are Painter and Cabrera. Cabrera is not enough to move the needle and Painter … Well, I guess it would depend on how much more would be needed to complete the trade. I’m not advocating we trade Painter (I wouldn’t), but I don’t make the decisions.

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  10. Im at the point of the offseason, that i don’t even know what I want the Phillies to do anymore! Just do something!

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  11. It also looks like what was obvious will happen which is Don Mattingly will become bench coach. Not sure what a bench coach really adds other than someone like Don heats up Thomson’s seat.

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    1. My speculation is that Mattingly can take the role that Topper seems to avoid; rushing up and getting ejected before a player can.

      Topper does a lot of things well, but protecting his players from ejections is not one of them.

      Liked by 2 people

  12. just saw the Phillies page post… Imma take a shot in the dark and say its becoming clearer:

    Schwarber resigns – imm a say between 5/150 – 5/162.5, i hope it’s less but unlikely. You got the pirates working on some sneaky owner tactics throwing out 4/100+ plus

    Realmuto – resigns – imma a say 18.5mil for 3 years. (Sorry Rocco)

    Mattingly is the bench coach, gets announced after they resign both Schwarber & Realmuto

    Kemp is the LF, Crawford is the CF or LF.

    Castellanos is dumped, Phillies essentially have to eat the entire salary (Crazy)

    Walker stays

    The FO knows they have to push the budget, and I think they do so by flexing the 38mil tied up in Walker&Casty. In doing so, they sign either Bregman or the Japanese player. Then you deduct Bohm or Stott’s salary with Strahm, and it comes down some more. Anyway you cut it, it’s at or over the final CBT threshold.

    After this, we keep an eye on Wood, McGarry, and McFarlane for midseason+ bullpen help. That is of course if McGarry doesnt get snagged in the rule 5.

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      1. it would be a better than they had for replacing their catcher. I would think if takes the bench job, that’s it’s just a matter of time for him. The FO seems to like Yankees

        Liked by 1 person

    2. Casty being dumped and listing two potential LFers means you’re moving Marsh over to RF?

      That could work, but his arm might be an issue over there.

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      1. it was a typo, I meant RF or CF. I can see Casty & Marsh potentially platooning …since no one seems to want Casty… even if he is basically “free”. That has to hurt his ego a bit. Maybe he stays, but it’s not full time like before. I have seen the mariners OFer Azorenza (SP?) mentioned as a trade target, that could be nice as well. Will see. Thats the master position at this point.

        Liked by 1 person

    1. That’s a lot of money. But at least Schwarber is a guy I enjoy rooting for.

      Certainly makes the rest of the offseason trickier to navigate, though…

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    2. I guess it is not my money being spent there. I don’t pay for tickets or subscriptions to be passively entertained by athletes either. I do like the feeling of being associated with a winner though. I am afraid this is sacrificing a bit of the future to have the same good but imperfect team we had last year this upcoming year. I hope it works out for the best.

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    3. 5/150? He’s a good guy and all, but hard to see how he will replicate those numbers as he ages. The Phillies are paying him to be a 4 WAR player every year. And this pretty much locks in Harper at 1B for the rest of his tenure.

      I guess the Phillies will be out for any of the Japanese players, although I think they had a chance at Murakami.

      I’m not sure how the Phillies will be able to pay Luzardo. This probably means he walks after this season.

      So for the best 5 years, the Phillies will ride (or die) with Schwarber, Harper, Turner, Nola.

      Get ready for a bumpy ride!

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      1. Well let’s see… the first shoe has dropped. I could make the argument for or against Schwarber. I really did like the idea of the DH spot being open/rotation of players. I do think Schwarber is different. He truly does hit in big spots. For example… Bobby Abreu was ragged on for getting meaningless hits. Schwarber is the opposite of that. If Crawford, Miller, and Kemp can be what the Phillies think they can, than his 30mil a year is very affordable.

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        1. Expecting Crawford, Miller, Kemp to be starter level is asking for a lot. I want those guys to succeed but history says that prospects fail all the time.

          You can argue that Nola was the best Phillies prospect DRAFTED in the last 12 years. Second? Probably Bryson Stott and some people here want him gone.

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    4. Yeah, this is exactly where I thought it would be (5/120 was a pipe dream) – you’re welcome! LOL.

      Is he worth it? Maybe. We’ll see. We do know he’ll give it and his training 100 percent.

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  14. Most estimates are that free agents nowadays get $10M-ish per WAR, so the Phillies are paying Schwarber to average 3 WAR per year over the life of the contract. I think that’s a reasonable bet.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I’m more in the camp of 8-9M per WAR so 3-ish WAR per year is doable I guess, but he had his highest career WAR last season at age 32. If he evens slows down a little bit, the Phillies are in trouble because he adds no value defensively as a DH. He has to be all HRs for the next 5 years.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. A HR is almost worth $1m per HR these days.. getting close.. they figure he’ll hit 200 HR over 5 years…. i do too, hope they have men on base and in the cold oct/nov weather… 2 year window to ride it out into player/coach roles for a lot of guys

        let’s go get pete now.. mets don’t really want him anyways.. let them take the NBP guys

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  15. Thomson extended through 2027… I thought he wanted to retire? Sounds like even more confirmation that Mattigingly will be the bench coach. Can’t have a lame duck manager with Mattingly sitting there.

    Well let’s hope… Bellinger, Bregman, Tucker, or Marte are to follow once they announce Realmuto. I bet him & Schwarber were basically a package deal. I coudl get excited about that offense with Crawford, Kemp, & Miller added.

    The Mets just lost Diaz, so im a bit concerned that has them signing Ranger now. Hopefully Ranger goes to BOS.

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      1. Rotate the DH like high school volleyball with Schwarb/JT/Pete/Harp/whoever etc, time to get funky and just have at it out there. crawford has to play FT… do whatever with Casty doesn’t matter.. maybe he’ll care/perform and try to get another contract.. doubtful but who knows how a man will react in the face of adversity like that and hey do i ever make more money or don’t I

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    2. If the Mets know what is good for them, they will sign Ranger. I would hate to face him the playoffs – he has ice water running through his veins.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. lol – it’s the HOPE-ganja! To clarify … one of those new additions… so Schwarber/Realmuto + one of Bellinger, Bregman, Tucker … Alonso , the Asian player. They NEED someone other than Schwarber to make this Offense go…. In the playoffs.

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  16. The DBacks are not going to give Ketel Marte away but this is a byproduct of how the DBacks can’t compete with the money being thrown around by the Dodgers. Marte is still productive with a decent salary. There’s no reason for the DBacks to do this. Trying to replace 4 WAR at 2B? Good luck with that.

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  17. Also, doesn’t it make sense to just spend stupid money now before the inevitable contract shiz and a cap comes into play and nobody can then spend stupid money?… Let these billionaires open their wallets for our entertainment… Let’s get nuts!

    Liked by 1 person

        1. Yes, after an MLB lockout ends and a new agreement is reached (or existing terms renewed), players typically get prorated salaries for any missed regular season games, but this is a major point of negotiation; the MLBPA pushes for full pay/rescheduling, while owners prefer players only get paid for games actually played under a new deal, similar to the COVID-shortened 2020 situation where players accepted prorated pay for fewer games, naturally if the lockout ends before the season starts, players get paid normally; if it extends into the season, their salaries are affected by the new terms, often meaning prorated pay for cancelled games, In essence: …players don’t get paid during a lockout itself, but once an agreement is reached, any future cancelled games will likely see their pay prorated according to the new deal, unless the MLBPA successfully bargains for full compensation or rescheduling which probably will be a negotiated agenda item for the new CBA,

          Like

        2. Yes, after an MLB lockout ends and a new agreement is reached (or existing terms renewed), players typically get prorated salaries for any missed regular season games, but this is a major point of negotiation; the MLBPA pushes for full pay/rescheduling, while owners prefer players only get paid for games actually played under a new deal, similar to the COVID-shortened 2020 situation where players accepted prorated pay for fewer games, naturally if the lockout ends before the season starts, players get paid normally; if it extends into the season, their salaries are affected by the new terms, often meaning prorated pay for cancelled games, In essence: …players don’t get paid during a lockout itself, but once an agreement is reached, any future cancelled games will likely see their pay prorated according to the new deal, unless the MLBPA successfully bargains for full compensation or rescheduling which probably will be a negotiated agenda item for the new CBA,

          Like

  18. With regards to Schwarber, it didn’t seem like much of a negotiation to me. Word was that he wanted 5/150 and he got that. Where was the back & forth? To me he should have got the years or money, not both. DD loves these contracts that hardly ever end well. I just think we would have been better off spreading the money around. The last time I checked good character and locker room guys alone do not win championships, like it hasn’t the last 4 years. 

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    1. The Phils offer a kind of ‘protection program.’ The Schwarber extension is protection for the investment made on free agents made earlier this decade. As was the Nola extension. Now let’s what the Phils have in mind for a right-handed bat to order protection to Harper in the batting order.

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      1. Yes, I totally agree with you. If we don’t get a strong right handed bat to protect Harper we essentially are running it back once we sign JT. I would like a Bregman or Bellinger signing now or a trade for Marte. I don’t know who else can move the needle for us. Meanwhile the Dodgers just got alot stronger by signing Diaz. 

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  19. I meant if he wanted 5 years, it should’ve been @ 25 million or if he wanted 30 million it should’ve been been for 4 years, not both

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    1. yeah but if you take like 28m in year 1 and then give that figure a COL 3% increase by the end of 5 years you paid $148.96m…. $28 a year $25 a year… it’s splitting hairs and shirsey sale numbers… roll that Blunt Tobacco John… eagles could take notice… SAQ been on that Prime TV/Streaming life.. who’s got dat dawg in them around here anymore?

      Donny baseball move makes sense.. but then it’s a next in line.. is Jr. in line to replace Dombo? things getting sticky in who goes where when in the Mattingly lineage?

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    2. I get what you’re saying, the Phillies wanted Schwarber back, and it does feel like the Phillies just gave Schwarber (and his agent) whatever they wanted. I guess it’s better than giving him 6 years, but yeah, it seems like a bit of a downer that he got that amount of money. We don’t how his career will progress in the next 5 years, but thinking that he becomes David Ortiz, it’s a long shot.

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      1. There is no reason why he cannot come close to Big Papi’s metrics….Big Papi’s career OPS vs LHP was .817…Schwarber’s so far is .778….and it is LHP that both faced the toughest bats against…especially Schwarber earlier in his career.

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  20. Thoughts on being pitched around… So we know (I believe) Harper didn’t get many FB in the zone to hit. Likely, many of what he did get where 1st pitch strikes that the team approach asked him to take … at least thats the story im going with …

    How about Schwarber? He hit 56 hrs, how many balls did he see in the zone? I’ll be more optimistic if he was being squeezed as well. If he wasn’t, he definitely will be with the “I’m here to hit home runs 30 mil a year” deal. He has a bigger bullseye on him now.

    This is why it’s imperative that they sign another big bat, preferably OF. The offense is too thin. If not, you’re relying on Kemp to be THAT bat. He should be a bonus.

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    1. The biggest thing was that Schwarber hammered mistake pitches at a much higher rate than Harper. Some pitcher would try to sneak a fastball by Schwarber, boom, it was gone. For Harper, it would be fouled off or he would even whiff at it.

      That’s what I saw this past season.

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      1. A few things have made me feel better about their retaining Schwarber. First, he’s at the peak of his career performance and it’s 2 years running now – that means something. Second, he has an incredible dedication to his fitness level. When he came up with the Cubs he was a bit of a pudge ball – not anymore. Third, he has incredibly quick reactions and bat speed – that bodes well for him performing well as he ages.

        Liked by 1 person

  22. Supposedly the O’s offered Schwarber the same contract we gave him. So the Phils at least weren’t just bidding against themselves or giving into demands for no reason.

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    1. I really don’t understand what the Orioles are doing. I’m assuming that Schwarber will bring the leadership to a young team AND at $150M, the contract will be less than others? They have the money to spend. I would rather give $200M+ to a younger Bellinger (and weaken the Yankees in the process).

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      1. The Orioles are a mess. I think they have no idea whatsoever what they are doing. They had the best run of prospects I can ever remember and somehow they screwed it up and they screwed it up quickly. They had to work overtime to mess that up.

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        1. They had a boatload of top prospects but as you well know, most of them will fail. They got 1 superstar (Henderson), a star in decline (Rutschman), some decent starters (Cowser, Mountcastle, Westburg) and the jury is still out on Mayo and Holliday. Grayson Rodriguez busted a bit due to injuries and Kjerstad has not really hit.

          All in all, getting Henderson makes up for a lot and Rutschman is no slouch either. The Orioles needed to supplement their young core by spending and they haven’t really done that. They should have signed Burnes but in hindsight, it was the right call because Burnes just had TJ.

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          2. Yes, most prospects do not pan out as expected, but it all depends on the prospect. Some are a more sure thing than others. Even accounting for a reasonable failure rate, the Orioles did far worse than one would have expected. Some of it may be bad luck, but I think they did not do a good enough job coaching up the guys they have and I say this in part because some players have even regressed in the current regime.

            But they also screwed up in not investing in pitching.

            On the whole, I think the Orioles are just not a good organization right now. There is no way in the world, with that in-house talent, they should be where they are now.

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    2. So is baseball now where players just go to teams who pay them them the most.  The Phillies had to match the Orioles contract to keep Schwarber. Do we really think he would have left this team, city, teammates and the charities that he started if the Phillies offered him a few million less like Diaz with the Mets? If that’s the case and all he cares about is money then we would have let him go. 4/120 is where they should have stayed and made him make a decision.

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      1. If it’s a player’s first chance at FA, they almost always go where the money is. There are minimal discounts. Second contract, like Schwarber, it’s probably 60-40 for the money.

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  23. I.believe this contract is too many yrs. Only way it okay. Is if they win a title. Other wise not good. Now if they give Realmuto three yrs. Look at the news, if you read fat guy jumped off walt whitman. It’s me

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        1. Will stick you in Mccovey’s cove, let you catch a Schwarbomb. Don’t worrry, you don’t need to know how to swim, just how to float

          Liked by 1 person

  25. Nelly Cruz hung around a long time as a DH only guy too. He banged 244 HRs age 33-38 which was after his PED suspension.

    I think Kyle could do something similar to those numbers.

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    1. That said I’m still of the opinion that if they don’t find that kind of pop from the right side they are just treading water near the top of the East with not much prospect for competing for a WS.

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        1. Hey Romus that’s tempting but no. I still think Painter is going to be very good and I’d rather go into FA for that bat I think we need.

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          1. Hence if it can’t be Alonso because everyone is worried about sending BH back to the OF I am warming up to moving Bohm and bringing in Bregman.

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            2. Hi Romus. I have been really busy, and things have been slow till now. I told Ruff I would get on.

              I watched Mattingly speak on Schwarber and team plans last night on MLB. He thinks team will be able to blend some of these young kids in with these long-term guys. Hope so.

              I am sure you noted IU beat OSU. I was surprised. Doubt it can happen a 2nd time. But we will see.

              I do get on and scan through all the posts. Just thought waiting to see what came about would be good time to get on.

              Hope all is well for everyone.

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            3. Hi Don, thought you would like to know that I rooted against Penn State for the first time since 1971 when they played Indiana. Great drive at the end and a great catch in the end zone to avoid the upset. I too was surprised at the IU/OSU outcome.

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            4. Hi Jim. Hope all is well for you. The PSU game was exciting. It was a great catch. I just saw that the best IU defensive lineman hurt his knee celebrating after the game with fans and is out. I have seen lots have IU vs OSU meeting again. If that happens it will be really difficult to pull it off twice. Nice to hear from you. I really appreciate all the work you do for the site.

              Looks like things are starting to pick up on the Hot Stove front. Probably be active the next couple weeks.

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          1. Buxton will be 32 and still owed 3/45.

            Ketel Marte is 32 and still owed 5/91 and that’s not including a $11.5M player option for 2031.

            Buxton has a well documented injury history but he fits what the Phillies need: a defensive CF who can hit. Buxton’s salary is very reasonable so his trade value is still pretty high.

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            1. If the Diamondbacks are ever going to trade Marte on their terms, now would be the time. He has limited no-trade protection (may block deals to 5 clubs) (may block all trades upon attaining 10/5 rights on 10th day of 2026 season).

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          2. Buxton has always intrigued me. Yes, he’s injured all the time. Yes, the Twins probably don’t want to trade him. Yes, you’d probably have to pay more than you want. That said, he has a good contract, he’s a righty, he’s ridiculously talented and he could be the one magical piece that transforms this offense from good to great and allows them to compete against LA in a short series. You have to think seriously about him even with all the drawbacks.

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            1. If you thought the Orioles are poorly run, why are the Twins (who traded Duran) now saying that they don’t want to trade any of their guys coming off a 70 win season? Their 2 top hitting WAR guys last season was Buxton and Bader, both age 31+. Their best pitcher is Joe Ryan, who’s turning 30 in June and has 2 years of control. Who are their young stars? The Twins should be trading off their older talent and retool for 2027 and beyond.

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            2. In the past couple years Buxton’s name would come up a lot and I was never really interested because of the injury history.

              And while his remaining 3 years seems reasonable it also appears there are about $11.5 million in performance bonuses he can earn on top of that annually.

              When I say I’m interested its not at the expense of any of our top 5 guys.

              So maybe in that breath I’m not really interested LOL

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        5. Can’t we just let Andrew Painter pitch for the Phils? We waited long enought to get him to the majors.

          P.S. first time to reply on this site…long time Phillies fan.”..Tony Taylor was my favorite player growing up…..so you can figure my age.

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    2. Cruz did most of his damage in Seattle, which was impressive. Cruz’s last season in Seattle was at age 37/38 in 2018, and his salary was $14.25M. We all know Schwarber’s salary.

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      1. In 2018 the highest payroll in the league was $221 million which was the Red Sox. The Phillies were not even in the top 5 that season. The Nats were 5th at $181; Dodgers 3rd at $199. Bonus points if you can guess 2 and 4 without looking…

        Hint it wasn’t the Yankees or Mets either…

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          1. The Cubs are definitely one of them.

            The Angels are a good guess because that was when they were spending exorbitant amounts on too-old players (Pujols). But that’s before Rendon came aboard, so I think they might be just outside the top 5.

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    1. Big dude,……….:”Curet’s calling card is his powerful fastball. His electric heater sits in the mid-to-upper 90s and touched 98 mph last season, featuring life up in the zone that can generate a lot of swing-and-miss despite him throwing it more than 60% of the time”

      You would have thunk they would have learned a lesson with from the Cristopher Sanchez trade.

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        1. I like this move. Curet is 23 (about the same age as Sanchez when he got traded), big kid, has a better SO rate than Sanchez with similar control issues. MLB Pipeline mentions that he has some evolving secondary pitches so he could be another keeper IF he gets his walks under control.

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    1. Why would they want to spend more for Alonso to be the DH vs. Schwarber? Alonso isn’t replacing Harper at 1b, he’s bad defensively.

      If choosing between the two, I would take Schwarber.

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      1. Some of us felt we should have got both and Alonso’s defense isn’t as bad as its made out to be. Its definitely not as bad as Casty in RF or Schwarber in LF.

        Its also not BH who is almost GG over there but I would have taken the added slug that type of line-up would produce.

        C’est la vie. We are basically headed towards last years team which isn’t horrible.

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        1. Yes, Alonso’s defense is that bad and he has the yips throwing the ball.

          If I’m spending that much money on two players, I’m going after Bregman who can play a position other than DH.

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        2. Alonso has been negative dWar every year he’s been in the league. He’s a terrible defender. He has no range at all. He’s a DH and if the Orioles are playing Alonso at 1B, it’s a mistake.

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      2. “Why would they want to spend more for Alonso to be the DH vs. Schwarber?”

        I’m sure they didn’t want to. They learned that $150 M doesn’t buy you what you want in bringing a free agent power bat to Baltimore.

        So much for my idea that teams might exercise fiscal restraint as the end of the current CBA draws near. Baltimore is in the middle of ‘Wild West gold rush’ spending. It’s up to you if you think Alonso represents legitimate gold.

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      1. They need pitching and a lot of it LOL and we still need an arm IMO. There are some good arms out and in a game of musical chairs we should be able to nab one.

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      1. Yeah the Mets seem to be slow playing this off season. That’s a lot of protection lost for Soto.

        Nimmo too was always a thorn in our side.

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          1. So far this offseason the Mets have lost 7 oWAR for (Nimmo, Alonso) for 2.7 oWAR (Semien).

            They’ve gotten rid a 31 and 33 year old in favor of a 35 year old.

            What the heck are they doing?

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  28. I was at a client’s residence who happened to be Mets fan when the news broke. It was pretty sweet.

    Did I rub it in? Na, I need to get paid but … I’m petty sure my 💩eating grin was an indication of how “sad” I was

    it does probably mean they could sign Tucker & Ranger though

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Not thrilled about this one… I thinking maybe Dave would get rid of Casty and protect McGarry. Since apparently nobody even wants Casty if he is FREE… here we are.

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      1. The Phillies left McGarry unprotected not because they felt no one would draft him but because they didn’t want to protect him. It wasn’t a choice between McGarry and anyone on the 40-man roster, they have half-a-dozen open slots. They apparently felt he wasn’t worth tying up a slot. I think they knew he would be selected. They had a deal in progress with a team out west but couldn’t close the deal before rosters were frozen in November for the Rule 5 draft. The team out west probably should have done the deal and not risked letting another team swoop in. Unless they made a deal with the Nationals to pick and trade him.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. Time will tell if he was worth protecting.. its a bit of a kick in the nuts to be down to a Painter post TJ after the Painter, Abel, McGarry trio.

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          1. Yeah, but let’s be real, McGarry has mostly been underperforming for several years. If the team really felt he was important going forward, they could have easily protected him, but didn’t. I mean, they may be wrong about that, but, as a prospect he’s now in a completely different zip code than Painter and Abel.

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            1. Not disagreeing… but I will say I was starting to get late bloomer vibes. Sure, wildly affective? Will that work in the MLB? Probably not, but i was starting to think he was turning he corner.

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  32. Little bit of an interesting rumor, not sure how much I believe it … but here goes.

    Castellanos to the Rockies + Prospect , Rockies in turn cover Castellanos FULL salary …

    I could see the Rockies making a trade for Castellanos but the full salary … what kind of prospect are we talking here? Cabrera?

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  33. Tac – If that “rumor” has any validity at all and with the Rockies (or should I write the Rockheads in this case) taking on the entire salary, the +prospect is going to have to be one of the top Phillies minor leaguers.

    Like

    1. Agreed. It’s not going to be any of top 3. So how high would you be willing to go up. Its gets interesting when you start thinking what can do with that 20 mil of Castellanos. For example:

      Trade him … Possibly Nori… im guessing one fate prospects #6-9. 20 million is cleared… then sign Bregman for 25mil or Suarez. Then you can also trade Bohm, and take of 8mil. So you fill a 3B with more power, upgrade the defense if it’s Bregman…and Bohm hopefully can fetch you a reliver or OF. I believe Randy Arozarena has been mention ed as being on the block, even for bohm. Seems like the Phillies may have to add more for that deal… maybe even Strahm? Randy Arozarena Is arbitration eligible so he shouldn’t have a crazy contract to take on. At this point, let me dream… but maybe you go get Marte at that point and you revamp the team. Stott, Escobar, Chase, and Cabrera. There not getting Painter. Again, let me dream.

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      2. The way to think about this, I believe, is that, by acquiring Castellanos, the Rockies would be paying for prospects because, standing alone, Castellanos has minimal value (a couple of million dollars) at best and negative value at worst. So if you’re the Rockies, would you pay $20 million for Dante Nori? No offense to the kid, but I think you’d need a lot more than that in prospect compensation. It might have to be someone like Escobar and a lottery ticket for Colorado to do the deal (or Escobar and Nori). If I’m the Phillies, I’m not doing that deal.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. This is a really long way of saying that I think the most likely outcome with Castellanos is that he is either designated for assignment and some team pays the MLB minimum or the Phillies trade him to someone for a low level lottery ticket and pick up almost all the salary. But he’s a headache in the clubhouse at this point while not being a productive player – you can’t keep a guy like that on your team. It just doesn’t work.

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  34. I had expected JT to be wrapped up by now, especially since he seemed more interest in a 2-year contract. I am wondering whether he’s asking for a lot/too much money. He’s a pretty proud guy.

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  35. Would you do 4/$48 do get the AAV down to $12? Knowing at some point over those 4 years he is probably just a back up or your trying to trade out of the 3rd or 4th year?

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    1. Im speculating, but if he doesn’t sign today… that offer is likely only for 2 years. A 2 yr offer before the CBA, is pretty risky. It could easily been seen as a 1yr deal, a strike, then he’s back on the FA market. The CBA might impact his numbers… i bet he’s holding out for 3 years.

      Is he asking for 4 years? Lol thats crazy but I bet he could. It woudl be the last time he could get such a contract

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      1. FYI – the history of catchers declining rapidly after age 34 has little to do with their level of fitness – it pretty much applies across all catchers, although when Bill James studied this, his analysis was that smaller catchers tended to fare better, perhaps because the strain on their knees over long periods of time was not as significant. We already know that JT is likely to be a significantly below average offensive player – basically a guy who hits 7-9 in the order – his OPS+ numbers have gone down consistently and dramatically over the last 3 years. The question is whether he is worth this amount of money for his defense. The answer to that question may be yes, between his behind-the-plate defense and his directing a pitching staff so expertly. I think calling games is the one skill that I’ve never seen translated to WAR but likely has significant value. Obviously, he’s very, very good at calling games and managing a pitching staff so it’s quite possible he’s worth the contract.

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        1. But I don’t want him for more than 2 years. Years 3 and 4 he’s likely to be just a sunk and unproductive cost at a time when their other contracts are also likely to be a drain.

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            1. Not Realmuto. They have two years to figure that out. We can’t repeat being the 2012 and 2013 Phillies. Trying to keep players into their late 30s, especially catchers, is the road to a hard crash and rebuild. I also don’t know who will be in their rotation 2 years from now – they will have a lot of stuff to figure out, just as most clubs do.

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            2. By the way, if for some crazy reason he is great this year and next, they can always decide 2 years from now to do a new contract. Who gives a 35 year old catcher a 3 or 4 year contract? A foolish team, that’s who.

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            3. Middleton’s mantra to his GMs…..5 year out planning. Two years may not be enough time to get a reliable catcher….or if its in a trade, the price will certainly be high. And there will always be the James McCanns, Travis d’Arnauds and the like out there. But they may not get you what you need to get to the WS.

              I would offer JTR 3yrs/$48M.

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            4. To me, signing JT to a 3 year contract is just far too risk averse for a seriously declining player at a position where declines can be fast and ugly. You realize there are a whole bunch of different ways they can address this position between now and 2028, right? Okay, the catcher of the future isn’t in house right now. It’s not that big of a deal. Plenty of lead time to deal with that. I’m not giving him 3 years. DD may, but I wouldn’t.

              Liked by 1 person

  36. Rocco’s rumor (and we all know that YOU started it, Moffo) is 2 years and $34M to get Realmuto back. If that’s the case, and he wants a 3rd year, offer him 3 years and $39M. You have to believe he just wants to be with these guys for as long as he can.

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  37. 4 years … this team is going to be the Philadelphia Grandpa’s at some point. These guys are pushing the envelope … i hope they’re right. I tend to think they could be… because sports fitness as come a long way.. if you’re dedicated you can stretch out some skill and fad into a productive everyday player … after being a superstar. It’s definetly not going the other way. Still … it’s one thing to have a player going at age 40… it’s a completely different thing when they are getting paid top industry dollars.

    What a great time to be a gifted ball player

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  38. What else could be done with JT at this point? His camp said he wouldn’t be opposed to a 2-year deal. We all know about how much he should/will be getting. There aren’t a ton of other available options either.

    Just wondering what the hold-up could be.

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    1. The hold up is probably the number of years. Phillies want him back and Realmuto knows it, he’s likely holding out for a 3 or even 4 year deal.

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        1. I remember when the Cardinals had reached a cross roads with the aging but possibly HoFer catcher Yadier Molina. His last best year was at age 33……next 6 years he had less than 7WAR …barely replacement. A career 41WAR player….JTR now is a career 39WAR player. Phillies are now in that situation with JTR. A sentimental favorite.

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          1. well to be honest, for the longest time there really wasnt an offensive catcher. if can play great defense by holding runners & calling a great pitch sequence… by all means roll the dice. It is really an advantage to the offense to get a boost from the catcher.. but they should be able to do so at other positions.

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            1. Bryse Wilson? After Curet and McCambley. I don’t get it. The off-season won’t be measured by these moves but still.

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            2. For all of you bemoaning the loss of Griff McGarry, understand that the Phillies valued all of these new pitchers (or the opportunity to acquire these pitchers for the ones who Rule 5 selections) more than McGarry. Now, they might be wrong about that, but it gives you an idea of where McGarry stands as a prospect in their eyes.

              Like

  39. Alright time for some perspective … in terms of shelling out OF Contracts Name those players…

    Player 1 – -0.6 WAR

    G/135, PA/461, H/117, 2B/20, 3B/8, HR/24, BA/.270, OPS/.824, OPS+/115

    Player 2 – 3.9 WAR, BB/31 – SO/136

    G/146, PA/501, H/124, 2B/24, 3B/1, HR/17, BA/.277, OPS/.796, OPS+/117

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      1. Interesting……how can a player with an OPS+ of 115 have a negative WAR…which is odd since he , if anything, was a good defender in the field. Now looking at Casty…also a negative WAR OFer, but an OPS+ of 88 – which is understandable.

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        1. Moniak had a terrible year defensively (-2.7 dWar, 7 errors). The number is so bad that you hope it’s going to be an outlier.

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          1. Yeah I was surprised at the war difference between these guys, and also moniak’s power numbers. He likes hitting at Coors field. Must be the batter’s eye there 🙂 71 of 117 hits at Home, 15 of his 24 hrs there too. 14 of his 2B. 5/3B.

            No disrespect to moniak, wish him well, but Bader is the clear pick for this team. More consistent. Just need a hybrid of the two to sign with the Phillies.

            I know we frown on player development sometimes here, but another forgotten home grown player is JoJo Romero. He’s not to doing to shabby for a LHP. He’s goign to get trade imo. The cardinals shoudl be able to get a net gain on that trade.

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            2. Sometimes a player is really good because he does all the little things well. Other times, a player is not very good because he doesn’t do the little things well (defense, plate discipline, base running, etc. . . ). Castellanos is such a player and the same appears to be true for Moniak, who still may have a little time to develop. Perhaps they can find a place for him in the field where he borders on average, but he played all 3 OF positions for the Rockies and didn’t do so well.

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            3. There’s no doubt that dWar can get wonky at times. But it’s an attempt to quantify the defensive metrics of an OF besides the usual “how many errors does he have”.

              We all know that OFs get errors for missing easy catches, booting a ball which allows runners to take an extra base, or inaccurate throws that allow runners to take an extra base.

              How would you quantify the following:

              Taking a poor route or not fast enough (than the average OF) to miss catching a flyball that turn into hits.

              Taking a poor route or not fast enough (than the average OF) to cut a ball off in the gap that allow runners to take extra bases.

              Have a rag arm which allows runners to take extra bases on hits and/or on fly outs.

              Perhaps it’s a combination of the above which made Moniak have a poor year defensively.

              Note that Rhys Hoskins had -2.9 dWar playing LF in 2018 and nobody seemed surprised about that.

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  42. Jorge Polanco agrees with Mets on 2-year deal @ 40 million. While he was a post season star, that’s a serious drop off from Alonso.

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    1. Ever since Steve Cohen bought the Mets, they are now consistently in the top 5 in payroll. They really only went all out in payroll in 2023 when they were first by a large margin. But after that, Cohen has realized excessive spending is not the optimal way to build a winning team. So yes, Cohen has money to burn but he’s trying to build the farm system so it will lead to a “normal” payroll.

      Yes, it’s a serious drop off from Alonso to Polanco but you have to do it if you want to have a”normal” payroll and avoid the tax, which Cohen has hinted that he wants to do.

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    1. If there were any questions about Castellanos heading out the door this basically seals it.

      Don’t love the signing but at least it makes more sense as a RH hitting OF vs. the signing of Keplar last year.

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      1. I like that he strikes out slightly less.. but you know … will see how that translates on this homer happy mindset team.

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    2. So true. They seem to waste $8-10 m every year on some guy (or guys) who never comes through – be it the bullpen or an outfielder. If Garcia had signed with the Braves he would have become an MVP candidate. But with us? Yeah, I’m not very encouraged.

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  46. Curious to see if there is another OFer coming or that’s “it”

    Would still like to see a Bader, Bellinger or Duran added via FA or trade. Azorena (SP) could be nice as well.

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    1. Hmm, I think I called that FA 1 year OF signing.

      I think the Phillies are done with their OFs: Kemp/Marsh, Crawford, Garcia

      Duran has 3 years of control left. He will likely cost Painter/Miller AND Crawford. Who wants to do that?

      Forget about Bellinger, Bader if he’s willing to come back on a 2 year deal.

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  48. I can’t figure out this front office at all. They have a team with a high chase rate and they sign a high chase guy who went from 29.5% to 35.1%.

    He signs for $10M which means with the tax rate the cost is $19.5M. Add in the $20M the team will lose when Castellanos is DFAd and they now have a $39.5M right fielder.

    But they’ll cover all that when ticket prices, concessions and merch costs go up. Pretty soon rich guys like Romus and Moffo will be the only ones who could afford to go to the games.

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  49. The 32-year-old García is a right-handed bat, a two-time All-Star, and in 2023, was a Gold Glove winner, and also the ALCS MVP. Dave D hoping to capture some past magic with him.

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    1. Between Andrew McCutcheon, Whit Merrifield, Jordan Romano, Craig Kimbrel, Corey Knebel and Max Kepler, the “lost magic” Gods owe us an enormous debt.

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    2. no such thing as a bad one year deal as they say …

      Well… what about 10 one year contracts in a row 🙂 ?

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  50. I’d like to know if any other teams were kicking the tires on Garcia. Smells like a move where we were bidding against ourselves. Could be wrong.

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    1. just FYI from one who knows – there were other teams that made offers. I also know that it’s not as easy to make deals as folks might think – there are other balls in the air – I will post another minor league signing soon. Just sayin.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Thanks for the reply Steve. I completely understand that it’s not an easy task to make a deal however, just because some people are walking into a bad restaurant to eat doesn’t mean you have to follow them in and sit down. This move looks and feels like a regurgitation of previous bandaid reclamation projects that constantly backfire on us. Looking forward to your next post. Really enjoy your site.

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  51. Scott Boras must be a miracle worker because I have no idea how he got his client, Ha-Seong Kim, 1/20 from the Braves.

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  52. Garcia and Castellanos look to have similar stats. Lots of K, a few walks, with some power (Garcia with more). Casty with a better average/OB%.

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      1. True, Garcia better fielder and better arm which should help a good bit. But I will give Castellanos one thing; when he got to the ball he was not prone to errors.

        What I see on the Phillies lineup is they have a good top of order: Turner, Schwarber, and Harper. However, after them it was a lineup of about league average type of hitters give or take at times. Bohm, JT, Castellanos, Marsh, Kepler/Bader, and Stott were around league average hitters none were way above and none were way below (except hold/cold streaks). This line up could really use one more above average hitter from the right side.

        Liked by 1 person

          1. Of those three… I believe Stott is the safest. Kemp is who will replace one of Marsh or Bohm. Reading between the lines from what the FO said… Im thinking they believe Kemp is going to be that right handed bat protection for Harper. I can obviously be wrong .. but if you move Marsh, Kemp is the new LF. That feels like a new OF

            Kemp – Crawford – García

            Pretty sure the FO believes Kemp has another couple of gears. Will see.

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          2. To me, Bohm is, by far, the lowest hanging fruit. Marsh is a 3 WAR player even in a part-time role. Stott is solid in the field and the team doesn’t have a ready replacement. Bohm has the least value and is in line to get paid a big chunk this year. The team can save itself a TON of money by trading Bohm. He is projected to early around $10 m- but they are in 100 percent tax bracket. Therefore, trading him could save them $20 m and Sosa will be a perfectly fine replacement with Aidan Miller coming on mid-year. If they can get a few good prospects for him, so much the better.

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        2. From CSN:

          “Defensively, García remains an asset, even on the wrong side of 30. Across 128 games in right field last season, he graded above league average in Outs Above Average (OAA) and logged a 91.9 mph arm on average, placing in the top 8% of the league. Accprdo=ing to Fangraphs, García was one of the best defenders at the position, finishing with 16 defensive runs saved — the best mark among right fielders and one more than Rawlings Platinum Glove Award winner Fernando Tatís Jr”.

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        3. From CSN:

          “Defensively, García remains an asset, even on the wrong side of 30. Across 128 games in right field last season, he graded above league average in Outs Above Average (OAA) and logged a 91.9 mph arm on average, placing in the top 8% of the league. Accprdo=ing to Fangraphs, García was one of the best defenders at the position, finishing with 16 defensive runs saved — the best mark among right fielders and one more than Rawlings Platinum Glove Award winner Fernando Tatís Jr”.

          Like

  53. Turner – Schwarber – Harper – Bellinger – Garcia – Kemp – Realmuto – Stott – Crawford

    That feels doable … Gotta drop some salary though to get a better lineup (Strahm, Bohm, Marsh, Some money for Casty – he has to be worth 3-5mil)

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    1. or (if Realmuto doesn’t resign/ FO needs his money to sign Bellinger or Bregman)

      Turner – Schwarber – Harper – Bregman – García – Kemp – Stott – Crawford – Marchan

      0r

      Turner – Schwarber – Harper – Bellinger – Garica – Kemp – Stott – Crawford – Marchan

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      1. I know in the past, guaranteeing Harper hit in the first inning was said. And that’s kind of what we’ve seen. But boy, I would love to see Justin Crawford force his way into that 2-hole early in the season. With Turner on base and being held, there’s no reason why Crawford can’t just bunt and slap the ball around and make some noise. Let Harper bat either 3rd or 4th with Schwarber being the other. Bohm and Garcia can be 5th/6th, in whichever order, Marsh 7th, Stott 8th, Marchan 9th.

        I feel the lineup would be lengthened if someone can be a real pain in the butt in that 2-spot.

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