307 thoughts on “How Would You Fix the Phillies?”

1. Good analysis Jim. Now just up to Dave D to make his moves, assume after the winter meetings but before the holidays.

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2. Ty Jim, that’s a lot of info

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3. For me the team needs a good righty hitter behind Harper. Bregman or Alonso fits the bill best from the Free Agents. Trout may become a legit trade candidate but a long shot at that but it would be worth the talk for DD (they would make some serious merch $$ with him). Once they get that right handed hitter settled then they can make the other moves. DH spot/ Schwarber is tied to this issue.

   IMO Marsh and his high SO rate needs to go. He was only 25% this year but career he was always over 30%. He either got better or more likely a one year fluke.

   For OF I would attempt for the better fielders first. Kwan would be an interesting add as long as they can find a right handed OF for one of the other spots. Refsnyder is an interesting possibility, love his OBP/BA with a bit of pop. He would be more of a platoon with Marsh if he remains.

   One good right handed reliever should be on the shopping list.

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4. 1. Let schwarber walk and sign bo Bichette 7 years 182 million you can give him an opt out after three years.
   2. trade for Adonis Garcia for Rojas and a mid tier prospect.
      then give Crawford and miller every opportunity to win a starting spot.

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   1. Signing either Bo B. or Kyle T. negates the Schwarber QO signing by another team……so it is a push for the compensation draft pick.

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5. Great post Jim, pushes the margins. I’ll post more later, but I want to ask the general thoughts on if the offense is better with Turner, Bregman, Harper, Alonso vs Turner, Schwarber, Harper, Realmuto? Assume the obvious on how the roster fills out. Im asking because if Schwarber does sign with the Reds,it’s a reality, but it may wind up having a more balance line up. Benefits of that, it could really tax the pitchers mind. Having a lengthened lineup, vs having to just avoid turner, Schwarber, & Harper…. Much different mindset imho.

   I do believe Crawford’s bat will be part of the fix from the stone cold offense come playoff time. Him & Turner or him & 2023 Stott is what the offense needs imo to compliment the big guns.

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6. You guys know how I feel.

   A. JM is willing to blow past the cap or

   B. He caps the spend at last years figure.

   If A Schwarber is Priority 1 Alonso 2 and a solid starting pitcher 3. If JT is willing to take 2 years around $15-$18 do it. If not I roll with Marchan and a Danny Jansen type back-up.

   I tender Bohm and get 1 more year out of him unless someone makes me a semi decent offer for him. I roll with Crawford everyday in CF Move BH to RF or LF and have a Marsh/Kemp Platoon in the other corner.

   As for the elephant in the room Casty. If you can’t save any of his salary and he he is adamant about not platooning then I have to release him.

   If he does want to stay and platoon with Marsh then focus has to shift to moving Bohm and Bobby Dickerson will have to work his magic on Kemp. Miller isn’t even a thought for me in 26 unless he is going great in AAA and even then it would be late season before I even consider bringing him up.

   Not sure what all of that is going to cost me but I know I’ll get $38 million+ back after 26 from Casty Walker Bohm and by 27 maybe Miller and Escobar are your 3B and 2B.

   If JM gives us B then you basically punt. You still bring back JT as his deal length should be pretty short (maybe not) but I don’t chase the market for him. Ozuna as a RH DH wouldn’t command much and there should be a plethora of SP for innings you can grab on short term lower AAV deals.

   But basically you’re taking 26 as a lets see what happens. If its looking good for the playoffs great. If not you start trading off pieces to reload for 27 and beyond.

   What you don’t do is worry about some imaginary window because you have Harp and Turner on these long terms deals.

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   1. 18 million for a defensive 35 yr old catcher. That’s as bad as Nola contract

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      1. LOL Rocco. Even though he wasn’t the offensive JT we got used to he also wasn’t horrid.

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      2. rocco……wait and see , you will see a new Nola in ’26.

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7. For me, I would rather predict what the Phillies will do instead of me saying what the Phillies should do, since really nobody in Phillies management will listen to anything we say.

   Since I believe the Phillies will hover around $300M (and not go into the next tier), I think their main goal is signing Murakami for DH. If that doesn’t happen, then it’s likely Alonso or Schwarber, whoever is cheaper.

   I know that Murakami can play 3B but from I’m hearing, his glove is not great. Miller is not in play for 3B. I’m leaning towards Bohm coming back for 1 more year.

   I don’t think Marsh is going anywhere. Right now, I think Kemp/Crawford/Marsh is the starting OF. Casty is as good as gone. If Bader comes back, I think that pushes Crawford to RF and Marsh/Kemp platoons LF.

   I think Realmuto comes back on a 2/28 deal. The Phillies don’t really have options here unless they pry Harry Ford from the Mariners.

   On the pitching side, I don’t think any of the relievers under contract will get traded. Aside from that, no idea who they will sign to improve the bullpen.

   I don’t really believe that Imai will sign with the Phillies. If that happens though, I can see the Phillies trading Luzardo. Luzardo will bring back something interesting (catcher prospect?). Wheeler, Sanchez, Imai, Nola, Painter, Walker would still be one of the best in baseball. Otherwise, I don’t see any movement here for the rotation.

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   1. I would hope there is zero chance Luzardo is going to be traded considering it’s almost certain Ranger is gone.

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      1. I agree that losing Ranger is going to be difficult. But this narrative I see here that the team doesn’t have good starting pitching is a little confusing. Yes, Wheeler is a risk, but signs point to him bouncing back and being at least very good. Sanchez is a superstar – nobody EVER mentions that here. He was an 8 WAR pitcher – that’s Roy Halladay territory (Cole Hamels was great, but he never had an 8 WAR season and Cliff Lee only had one such year). Tremendous. Luzardo had a few hiccups but was otherwise a top 10 starting pitcher last year and that’s exactly how he pitched in the playoffs. If they can extend him, they should. Nola was hurt and had a terrible year, but by the playoffs, he looked like the same 2/3 we’ve seen in recent years. Painter and Walker are risks. So, right now, we’re definitely not as deep as we were the middle of last year, but this promises to be a very solid to excellent rotation. And I expect them to pursue some additional arms below the radar that could help – they’ve done a pretty good job at this recently.

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         1. While we are at it, I’ve been posting on and following this site for almost 20 years now. Cristopher Sanchez is, by far and away, the most pleasant surprise of any of our prospects over the last 20 years.

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            1. For me he is presently a notch below Shane Victorino,

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            2. After the Phillies last title, drafting Aaron Nola in 2014 and generating almost 35 WAR (3rd behind Trea Turner and Matt Chapman) was huge. I don’t think anybody saw that coming. Heck, I heard rumors that the Phillies were interested in Nick Gordon.

               Sanchez still has a long way to go to reach Nola’s heights, but he’s on his way. I remember when Sanchez was walking guys all over the place. I wanted Sanchez in the bullpen. Good for him to put in the hard work and make the adjustments.

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               1. Well, nobody thought Aaron Nola was going to be that good, but he was a pretty well regarding first round pick and was the seventh player selected in the draft. He was a pleasant surprise for sure, but Sanchez, was a very lightly regarded prospect, so much so that the general thought for many years was that the trade for him was a bust. The idea was that Sanchez might be a 5th starter or 7th inning bullpen option down the line. Nothing in his background could prepare us for what he has become – a superstar.

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   2. Japanese stars seem to avoid Philadelphia. The other large and major market teams have had success in signing them. Philly not quite. It might be they have an aversion to Philly cheese steaks,,,,,no Kobe beef in the sandwich. No matter how much Philly fandom yen for that Nippon star….it is sayonara.

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      1. Philadelphia has a history of fans making their feelings heard by booing their own players. Once upon a time, I booed Pat Burrell at the Vet. Asian players are not used to that so competing teams might say that they shouldn’t play in Philadelphia because of their boorish fans.

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         1. That definitely could be one reason.

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         2. Didn’t Masataka Yoshida say he idolized Harper a few years back? Pretty sure a lot of those guys could do worse than playing in Philly. You can argue the fans are as tough or tougher in Boston, Chicago, and NY. I just don’t think this latest regime wanted anyone badly other than Suzuki and Yamamoto.

            I once too heckled Burrell in LF at the vet. I listing out popular watering holes at that time asking him if that was on his mind rather than the game. It elicited him to perk up his ear and turn his head a bit. Those were the days.

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      2. Funnily, Ohtani specifically mentioned how much he loves the cheesesteaks he’s given when playing in Philadelphia. He wasn’t even asked about it, he just outright said it unprompted.

         Maybe we can use that endorsement to get a Japanese player of our own.

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         1. Yes indeed…a video of Ohtani holding a Philly cheese steak with the Championship trophy behind him….saying ‘you can’t get an authentic Philly cheese steak in LA’

            Seriously…. Boston, both New York teams, Cubs, Rangers, Dodgers, Seattle et al….all have signed NPL posted stars. Actually the Sf Giants signed the first Nippon star back in the 60s.

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            1. Hey, he needs all the money he can get until those deferrals kick in. Why else would he sign with New Balance?

               Does paying a player to be in ads count against the LTT?

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8. Im not 100% that Ranger is gone just yet. There are a few ways to do it imo. Let’s assume Ranger gets 27mil:

   Trade or Release Bohm & his 10mil + trade Strahm 7.5mil. Fill in with Kemp While waiting for Milller, Escobar… maybe even turner? Replace Strahm with a prospect. McFarlane, McGarry, Wood, etc. Next year, Casty & Walker’s full salaries come off the books for 38mil. It’s doable.. especially if they then trade Luzardo for a catching prospect or maybe Rutchsman. This would also save the 15-18mil Realmuto is expecting to get. I still see the Phillies bringing him back, but you get the idea. The FO can continue to play to the strength of the team by resigning Ranger. Now, another pitched might be just as good for a cheaper price GIVEN the opportunity. So will see. Either way, the philies FO should be able to keep up with any teams SR. The bullpen may suffer until the deadline however.

   Im hoping for another BP are to pair with Duran. I think it could be lights out with Alvarado/FA/Duran going 7th-9th in the playoffs with Wheeler, Sanchez, Ranger/FA/Luzardo with Painter & Nola available.

   The team really needs to sacrifice some pitching thought for a better offense imo. It needs more balance. Too many easy playoff outs.

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   1. I don’t disagree that this team needs much better hitting, but I really don’t see how your plan advances the ball. They need better hitting starting this year. If we wait until 2027 or 2028 for internal promotions to take off, you’re likely to see declines from Harper and Turner weigh down the offense and offset all or some of those gains.

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   2. I’m convinced of things I can’t prove:

      • That the Phils tried to extend Ranger long before they started negotiation with Christopher Sanchez. Why would they not lock in Suarez, if they could, who was further along in his career at the time and closer to free agency?
      • -That the Phils traded for Luzardo out of recognition that — not that they needed 3 lefties in the rotation — but that Ranger was a real long shot to sign before entering free agency.

      The only way Ranger comes back is that a soft market encourages him to accept a 1 year pillow deal. But, for a host of reasons,I don’t see that as less than a 5 % likelihood. I’ve not heard any supposed insider suggesting that he will be back.

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      1. I do agree on this Flea, something I forget here and there but… technically they could still bring him back… it depends on Schwarber & any additional moves. It really stinks that Walker is such dead money because if they coudl off load him, for his full salary … there you go… its very possible to bring him back.

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   3. Tac, releasing Bohm doesn’t save any money. He still has to be paid. They’ll save league minimum when someone else signs him but still be on the hook for about 90% of his contract.

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      1. ahhh, that makes sense. I’d figure we’d of been talking about it by now if so. Will in this case… gotta find a dancing partner as they say. He’ll need to be traded. if the target is Bregman, he’s not technically as expensive if you can count Bohm’s money towards him… once bohm is traded .

         To clarify, it wasn’t necessarily my plan to fix the Phillies, just a potential chess move. At this point, too many ways this team could go, but Id lean on weaking the SR, to beef up the offense & BP. Whatever moves accomplish that.. at it really only seems like the only way to do that, is too be above 300+

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9. I applaud all the work Dr. Jimmy put in to enlighten us. What he heard (?) about a Castellanos/Arenado trade caught my attention. NC will be 35 when the season begins and NA will be 36.

   In 589 PAs Casty whiffed 133 times. Arenado Kd 49 times in 436 PAs. WAR was 1.3 vs -0.8. If I’m correct, Arenado made 5 errors for the season. Castellanos is owed $20M and NA is due $37M.

   If St. Louis threw in $7M to bring down Arenado’s salary to $15M a year, it’s not so bad. It is a definite upgrade at 3B defensively for sure. It is contingent on moving Bohm as it stands now.

   Will somebody trade for Bohm? Maybe. What he is due ($10M) goes to pay NA’s salary and the team is saving $20M on Casty’s take. And who knows, maybe Arenado is rejuvenated.

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   1. Arenado is not an upgrade at 3b and certainly doesn’t improve the offense for the extra $$$, not to mention the extra year.

      They would be better off just DFAing Castellanos completely, tendering a contract to Bohm and saving the 5-7 million difference in 2026 plus the $30+million in 2027.

      Hard pass on any trade for Arenado.

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      1. Misread Jim’s assessment of Arenado’s remaining contract amount. the $37m is both years combined so the money is basically a wash but still not interested in adding a declining Arenado to a team that needs more offense.

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   2. Arenado is a bad gamble. His numbers have trended straight downward for the last 4 years and he’s going to be 35 this year. Let’s not double down on the Castellanos bad contract by taking on a bigger contract for another declining player. On top of that, Trea Turner isn’t moving from SS (he’s a 6 WAR player there, why should he?), which means that third is Aidan Miller’s most likely destination. So, on top of Arenado’s big salary and questionable performance, now you’ve got Arenado blocking Miller. No way. Hard, hard pass on Arenado.

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      1. I have no idea what happened to the Cardinals – they used to be among the most astute organizations in baseball. But about 6 or 7 years ago, they started to make the most daffy baseball decisions and they stopped pumping out great prospects with regularity the way they used to do. By the way, I’m good with all of this. I like the Cardinals in baseball about as much as I like the Cowboys in football. Keep failing fellas!

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         1. They went thru some managerial changes that just did not work out…Methany , to Shildt, to Marmol-who is there now. But maybe the PoBO John Mozelliak is the issue, he has been there close to 20 years now.

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            1. This isn’t about managerial decisions, it’s about talent development, stupid trades and just overall poor organizational decisions. They are a floundering organization right now, which is something that I can never remember them being during my lifetime.

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            2. Supposedly when Jeff Luhnow bounced from the Cardinals to the Astros he took with him a wealth of information on talent evaluation software. I believe he even sued the Cardinals for their continued use of that proprietary platform and won.

               I think there was some evidence that suddenly the Astros started being better in the talent evaluation as the Cardinals started going downhill.

               I don’t know it was quite a few years back so my mind may be a bit fuzzy on that.

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               1. That said big John is gone and Chaim Bloom is getting another shot at rebuilding a franchise…

                  Even more crazy is that the guy Jonah Hill played in Money Ball John DePodesta and for whatever reason wouldn’t allow his name to be used in the movie.

                  Anyway he has been with the Cleveland Browns, yup the NFL since 2016 trying to ply analytics to building a football team. That obviously hasn’t gone so well so the Rockies are giving him another chance in the MLB.

                  I suppose you can’t get any lower than the Rockies

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               2. I suppose you can’t get any lower than the Rockies….very good….Death Valley?

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      2. Nolan Arenado is declining fast. This is his last 3 years of OPS: .774, .719, .666. He still has some value because he’s still positive defensively but he’s not getting paid solely for his glove. It was a terrible contract by the Rockies which they managed to pawn off to St. Louis. Arenado has 2/37 left because the Rockies are still helping to pay down his contract. The Phillies should still not want any part of Arenado.

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      3. Don’t rule out 2B as a landing spot for Miller. If Bregman is indeed their target again, he will block Miller at 3B. As long as Turner is at shortstop, he’ll be blocked there. So you either trade him or find another position. I don’t think Stott has been so good that his increasing cost will block Miller if 3B and SS are taken.

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         1. they can kick this can down the road for another year, correct? Turner was good at SS last year but who knows what 2026 will bring. Maybe he gets moved to the OF and miller ia the SS – but thats probably not a forced issue in 2026. Miller is probably only pushing to start if there is a) an injury or b) poor performance and then its kinda decided anyway.

            Jim, is that a correct read?

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            1. I think it is. They don’t have to make any changes in the infield. They could certainly run Harper, Stott, Turner, and Bohm back out there. If that were to go to spring training with no changes among this group, Miller would be blocked for the 2026 season. Even with changes (the most obvious being a Bregman-like free agent in and Bohm out), I don’t see Miller breaking camp with the Phillies. Nor do I see him playing in Philadelphia unless something catastrophic were to occur.

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10. Jim, thank you for your taking the time to produce your excellent analysis. I was surprised that Otto Kemp didn’t find his way into your write-up.

    The Phils non-tendered pitchers Michael Mercado and Daniel Robert. I repeat my call for them to add Griff McGarry and Felix Reyes to the 40-man. There is room.

    My off-season priority is the DH position. Were it me, I’d press Schwarberto indicate if he’s ready to sign a very good deal to remain with a contender. Or indicate that he’s looking for the most $, with a contender or non-contender.

    My back-up plan would be to strive to get younger by signing Murakami. I’d avoid Alonso. If Murakami is not interested in coming to Philly, it opens the door to Bo Bichette being the big off season free agent signing. But not primarily as a DH.

    My Plan C for the DH (with Bichette in hand) is to go to Castellanos and offer him a chance to compete for the DH spot. If Castellanos is intent on playing in the field, then full steam ahead by trading or releasing him. He’s not part of my OF plan going forward.

    My big trade would be with the Orioles for Adley Rutschman and Tyler O’Neill — now more available than ever with the O’s trade for Taylor Ward. My package is Bohm, Marsh, Stubbs and Jean Cabrera or another prospect of comparable value. The O’s are in need of pitching. Obviously, I would not then bid on JT. Again, it’s about getting younger and less expensive.

    If these stars align, I’d re-sign Harrison Bader as my full time center fielder. My outfield would look like Crawford, Bader and O’Neill with Kemp, Rojas and Wilson in reserve.

    All else failing my DH(Plan D) would rotate between Kemp, Rutschman, O’Neill and Perhaps Bichette.

    The position players:

    C – Rutschman, Marchan

    IF: Harper, Stott, Turner, Bichette, (if no Schwarber/Murakami), Sosa

    OF: Crawford, Bader, O’Neill, Kemp, Rojas

    Weston Wilson or

    DH: Schwarber/Murakami/Castellanos/choice of 4

    My batting order would definitely include Rutschman, Harper, Stott, Turner, Crawford, Bader and O’Neill with the possibility of Schwarber, Bichette, Nurakami, Castellanos, Kemp.

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    1. Rutschman has not been catching full-time, and his numbers are much better as a DH, so having a full-time DH with him as the main catcher doesn’t really work.

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       1. Rutschman’s an All Star catcher for 2023 and 2024. The Phils won’t find better to replace the aging All Star they would be losing. Under different circumstances in Baltimore Adley would be untouchable. If he caught 110 games and DH’ed in 20 more, I think he’d be great value.

          By the same token, Bohm is, or has been, an All Star.

          Lots of teams could stand in line for Rutschman. Not as many can take the off-load of O’Neill who is now a depth piece in Baltimore, and not a cheap one for a thrifty franchise.

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    2. I am not opposed to Adley for a deal like that but I think Baltimore would want a good bit more for him even with his numbers not being great.

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    3. Personally I’d forget about Adley Ruts and try to pry Harry Ford away from the Mariners……he will not be replacing Raleigh out there any time soon. Bohm could be a starter in the conversation since Suarez is gone, and then maybe some added value,

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11. 18 Pitchers 14 Fielders = 32 total players on 40 man roster. 8 open spots

    Pitchers on the fringe of roster or trade candidates are Hoffman, Rangel, and Walker. They will likely add a SP and at least 2 RP plus any Pitcher spots they trade away.

    Fielders on the fringe of roster or trade candidates are Castellanos, Bohm, Rojas, Wilson, and maybe Marsh.

    They will add a catcher, an infielder, and at least 2 outfielders plus fill any spots they trade away.

    For the lineup they will add at least 1 good right handed bat but not sure if that will be at DH, 3B, or OF. Once that is settled the roster comes into focus a bit better.

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12. Mets wasting no time…traded Nimmo to the Rangers for Marcus Semien. Mets PoBO David Stearns needed to make changes and looks like he is doing it right away.

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    1. I liked Marcus Semien for the Phillies a few years back. He was at the top of the league for Total Bases. Need people on base to score runs. its also should end up netting the Mets a defensive upgrade. The other shoe to drop is for them to bring in an OF. Bellinger, Tucker, etc. im not liking this move so far.

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       1. Well they may lose their best power and RBI guy in Alonso…so they will need to find some power. So Bellinger and/or Tucker would seem to be who they may target.

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    2. It’s an odd deal for the Mets because Semien is already 35 and still owed 3/72. His OPS the last 2 years: .699, .669. He’s positive defensively but as I mentioned before about Arenado, he’s not getting paid solely for his glove.

       Nimmo will be 33 (didn’t know he was that old) and still owed 5/102.5. He’s also in decline and his defense is below average but still a serviceable player.

       Production wise, it’s about a wash so the trade is going down because the Mets want to save money? Trading a for a 35 year old that still has years left on his contract is not usually a recipe for success.

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       1. Yes…would appear on paper to be a wash. And just not sure it really moves the needle for them, which is just fine with me. The Mets also face a decision on Edwin Diaz following his opt-out with two years and $37 million remaining on his contract. Díaz recently put his chances of a Mets return at “50-50.” The question is whether Stearns is willing to give four or five years to a closer who will turn 32 during spring training. On one hand as a Phillie fan…..you may want that decision to resign Diaz to 4/5 years.

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13. My take on fixing the Phillies, with a few qualifiers (going over 300m+ payroll, 2027 CBA, & DH flexibility)

    SR; Teams strength is SR, so i let Suarez go, and bank on one more year of Wheeler at a top tier pitcher. I go with to battle with Sanchez, Luzardo, and an emerging Painter. Nola imo bounces back, but not 100% needed.

    Bullpen: I focus on some help from the minors to get us over the hump. Some combination of McGarry (yes), McFarlane, and Wood to boost the bullpen Cheaply.

    Trade: I replace Strahm with a flame throwing FA signing to pair with Alvarado & Duran. 3 guys throwing 100mph+ at the end of the game. I also bring back Sir A as depth. I essentially want Strahm’s salary off the books to make signing a FA more palatable/possible.

    Positional players: I have Sosa & Kemp battle it out for 3B, with expectations of Sosa winning out. Kemp is your LF. Winner holds down the spot for Miller.

    Trades/promotions:

    I have bohm shipped out. Likely for a catcher/prospect. Promote Crawford to CF, and pair in the lineup near turner of Stott.

    I say goodbye to Schwarber and Bader. He has a great bat, clutch bat… but… a more balanced team should go farther imo. this team is only 3 deep in the lineup come playoff time. Once you get past them, it’s too many easy outs. IMO, it’s a good reason the team goes so cold in October. A team with a lengthen lineup, finally stops the offensive headsaches in October.

    So… sign Tucker & bring In the Japanese slugging positional player. JM wants to tap into that market, i think he does this year. I’d bring back JT… if you can fit him in. Unlikely, so trade Bohm/‘Cabera for Ford or Rutschman (BAL).

    Trade/release Castellanos. Keep Walker. For the sentimental crowd, bring Hoskins back in for 1b/DH duties. Rotating. It will help ease the sting of losing Schwarber, Realmuto, and Suarez.

    Curveball trade; Stott for Donovan (STL). Hoping for 2023 Stott to re-emerge but Donovan could make me swap him out.

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    1. ”if” the phils can sign the Japanese slugger, it moves Sosa to bench unless he can beat out Kemp for LF. Kemp, could be the RH bat neeeded to protect Harper. im thinking this is what DD is “hoping” for.

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14. I know this doesn’t answer the question of the thread but, I don’t see how the Phillies are going to keep payroll about the same, bring back JT and Schwarber, not trade away our top-3 prospects, AND shake it up. Releasing Castellanos and perhaps trading Bohm doesn’t really feel like a good shake-up to me and leaves us with more question marks.

    Something will have to give. Either payroll will expand into the $310-$320 range, or we will have to get very creative with trades and might have to make a hard choice on one of our prospects.

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    1. So I guess to answer the question, I say we have to be bold. I would put Painter on the block for a catcher. Whether it’s Ford, Goodman, Quero, or Teel. I want a good, inexpensive catcher for the next 5-7 years. I know what JT means to the pitching staff and I love the guy as well. But if you want a shake up, then let’s start here.

       Next I try to send Matt Strahm, Alec Bohm and $3M to the Royals for Kris Bubic, which will help bring some stability to our staff.

       Sign Bichette to play 3B for $28M per year.

       Resign Schwarber for $29M per year.

       Trade away Nick Castellanos and hopefully save $5M

       Bring back Bader at $15M per year.

       That puts us right around $314M

       Lineup goes:

       Turner – Schwarber – Bichette – Harper – Goodman – Stott – Bader – Marsh – Crawford

       Rotation goes:

       Wheeler-Sanchez-Luzardo-Nola-Bubic

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       1. Wheeler-Sanchez-Luzardo-Nola-Bubic……..didn’t Dave D already say , barring any setbacks in his recovery, their hoping Wheeler will be back l end of May/first part of June?

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          1. Correct. Back to pitching in games by the end of May is what Dombrowski said. No where did I say we were getting rid of Taijuan. He did fine filling in last season for short periods and he will probably do that again. Unless you want to go target another ace or something?

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       2. Always find it interesting in various trade proposals how the Phillies manage to get all-star players for guys the poster doesn’t want.

          Why would KC trade Bubic who still has multiple years of control to the Phillies for Bohm and Straham who will both be FA’s after 2026?

          Even if KC wanted to move Bubic, they would be looking for prospects, not guys on the verge of free agency.

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          1. This time of the year, the Christmas Wish List fever takes hold.

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          2. Bubic has one year of control left, not two. In 6 years, he’s had one season where he’s been worth more than 1.3 wins. That was last year. In 20 starts, he threw 116 innings and was worth 3.1 wins.

             The Royals were 82-80 last year and would add a good bullpen arm for cheap, and Bohm can occupy 3B, 1B or DH. They have floated the idea of Maikel Garcia shifting to 2B, although I don’t know how much of an option that is after he received the AL GG this season.

             So for about $8M added, they become a little more competitive and should have some money to address their outfield.

             I’m not sure what kind of prospect (or in your case, prospects) they would be getting for Bubic. Nothing that would help them be better than 82-80.

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             1. Kris Bubic has 1 year of control left but his arbitration number will be reasonable, likely around $6M or less. He’s only 28, was an AS this season and had 3.1 WAR in 20 starts. If the Royals put Bubic on the trade market, he’ll get you a top 150 guy.

                Bohm and Strahm alone will cost the Royals around $17M in salary.

                Teams will be interested in Strahm but his value is not as high as you would think. He’s not Duran. Nobody wants a light hitting 3B who’s going to get $10M in arbitration.

                If I was the Royals GM and DD offered this package, I would laugh and then tell DD to call me back when he gets serious. It starts with Aroon Escobar and maybe another lesser prospect.

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                1. Im not trying to punt here, but it is a tricky time to predict what the Phils will do. The FO has to have a pulse on what the CBA is going to look like, since they have an inside track to the one of owners. It has to weigh in…

                   the only other really big roster move is to trade either Turner, Harper, or Nola. All of which seem super unlikely. So, is it a retool year to see what happens with the CBA? Or are they “going” for it?

                   What if the CBA is a big enough change you can’t really just “out LA Dodger” every team in terms of payroll? How do you look at Wheeler now? There is a very real possibility you have only one more post season run with him. Another scenario… if you sign Realmuto for 2 years… you might really only be getting one… since there maybe a lock year again. i hope its a shortened season but from the sounds of it, its going to be an impasse for an extended period. How does that work for Schwarber? Would you just give him a 1 year $55 million dollar deal? Vs 5 years … knowing you might only get 1 prime year out of the 5?

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             2. You are correct that Bubic has 1 year of control left. I need get my brain moved to 2026.

                But beside the extra $$ they would be taking on, the main issue remains, why would KC want Bohm, when as you note, they have a GG, all-star at 3b now. They also have Pasquantino at 1b who hit 30+ HRs in 2025 so he’s not being replaced.

                Bohm’s only spot would be as their DH but his value is at 3b because he doesn’t have enough power to justify being a primary DH.

                If KC wants to trade Bubic they would find a better trade match that fits their needs not that fits the Phillies needs.

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15. Mets make a cost-saving trade. Hal Steinbrenner is talking fans off the idea that his franchise is making money. Can there be a frantic off-season free agent market without the New York teams in the middle of it? Put another way, for whatever reason could this be a more cautious ownership on display this off-season as the expiration of the CBA draws closer?

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    1. it probably should be… if they truly are losing money… who’s going to believe them if they are giving out 150mil contracts to a DH. You got a player making 70 mil a year. You gotta do something to cry poor

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16. Addition: Bo Bichette (Turner’s gotta move to another position)

    Subtraction: Bohm and Casty

    Resign if he’ll agree to two-years: JT; otherwise, bye-bye. Then try to get Rutschman.

    Resign: Schwarber

    Pitching: Leave it be.

    If the Phils are inclined to trade for a true star at any position, I’d be agreeable to sending Painter, but it has to be a true, established star without an injury history. Also that would put a premium on resigning Ranger.

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    1. That scenario would be Christmas coming early with Santa making the delivery. The money’s not there.

       I believe the Phils see Painter as a franchise prospect with a ceiling above Nola or Hamels. I believe any other team would wait to be shown that Painter, at this stage of TJ recovery, is “that guy.” Given the imbalance in perception, I see no way Painter gets traded any time soon. I’ll come here and acknowledge how wrong I am if such a trade happens.

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       1. Agree that a deal satisfactory to Phillies management is unlikely, but I’d still try if there’s someone out there they think can be the key piece to finally going all the way.

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17. The Phillies have a good chance of bringing in Imai now after his latest comments about how actually wants to compete against the Dodgers. The signing might seem excessive for the Phillies in 2026. It would still help them in 2026, and it would make even more sense for the Phillies starting rotation looking beyond 2026.

    Maybe they will bring in another player from an Asian league also. https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/sports/mlb/philadelphia-phillies/phillies-international-mlb-free-agents-2026-targets/4307013/

    I like Schwarber, but I don’t like these big dollar amounts I read being considered for an older designated hitter. Schwarber will probably play well in 2026, but for how much longer beyond that is a question. If the dollars he wants start to get too high, I would rather have the Phillies get other players who are capable of helping in the field, and they could use the DH for lineup flexibility.

    I hope they can bring back Realmuto and Bader.

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    1. Not sure I understand all of the enthusiasm for Bader. He had a career year and I wouldn’t bet on a repeat for a guy who turns 32 next season. Again, liked his enthusiasm, but…

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18. Didn’t realize Merrill Kelly was out there as a FA. He’d be perfect on a 2 year deal for rotation insurance. He put up up a 1.11 WHIP last season over 185 IP and is playoff tested.

    Also and interestingly I believe he is the last player to have had the surgery Wheeler just had and came back throwing as well as he had if not better than before the surgery.

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    1. Yes…he would be ideal to have….and good for Wheeler to have discussions with during rehab and recovery.

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    2. Not to rain on any parade – I agree with Merrill Kelly – he would be ideal except – he went to high school and college in Arizona and has very strong ties to the area. He returned from overseas ball to Arizona and I have to think he left for Texas in the mid season trade knowing he would be returning as soon as he could. But he is one very good pitcher despite the age.

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19. My dream offseason scenario:

    1. Re-sign Schwarber: 4/$160
    2. Sign Tatsuya Imai: 6/$150
    3. If sign Imai, then trade Painter for Wyatt Langford
    4. Trade Bohm and Casty to Seattle for a bag of seeds. They want Bohm so they have to take Casty on 1 year deal instead of sending back a prospect or a player. Casty can DH for them.
    5. Sign Bregman for 5/$160
    6. Resign JT 3/$45

    Lineup:

    1. Trea
    2. Harper
    3. Bregman
    4. Schwarber
    5. Langford
    6. Marsh
    7. JT
    8. Stott
    9. Crawford

    Rotation:

    1. Wheeler
    2. Sanchez
    3. Luzardo
    4. Tatsuya
    5. Nola
    6. Walker

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    1. If it is Seattle in that trade…..then not seeds, but weed.

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    2. I encourage you to forward these recommendations to John Middleton. To help your thoughts be seen as sincere and in the best light, I encourage you to enclose a certified check for $55-60 million.

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       1. LOL. It’s always easy to spend other people’s money, right?

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    3. I believe signing JTR to a 3 year deal is more nightmare than dream.

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       1. It really bothers me that they are forced into a corner on JT and did not adequately plan ahead there. JT is still good defensively but otherwise is on the way down. Signing 35 year old catchers – even JT – to big contracts is how your team declines quickly.

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          1. Let’s put it this way, would you resign Darren Daulton at age 35? Most of us would for his leadership. I get the sense that Realmuto is just as important as Daulton would be, but mainly for the pitching staff…. I will tell you… im not willing to gamble on that one to find out.

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       2. JT is easily a top 15 catcher in MLB. And the bottom 15 are really bad. Have you looked at the other options? It is the weakest position in MLB. He’s still an elite catch and throw defender who controls the running game. Pitchers trust him and his game IQ is elite.

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          1. Agree, if you’re only looking at free agency. They need to make a trade if JTR wants more than 2 years. Additionally, have you looked at his workload the last 5 years vs other catchers in similar age range? The odds that he’ll be healthy for the bulk of years 2 and 3 of your proposed deal are slim and none. It’s the same “hope” strategy that people think Wheels is going to come back at his age off this injury and not miss a beat from his former self.

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          2. Yeah, I hear you. It’s not a great situation. But what I think is pretty much irrelevant. My view is that Rob Thomson absolutely wants him back – period. And, therefore, I expect it will happen and it will happen with a contract that I anticipate will look bad at some time in the not-too-distant future, perhaps even when it is signed.

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    4. Omg 3/45 that’s nuts.

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       1. Three years, or maybe two years, does give the team time to invest into a younger catcher in the pipeline or trade for one , like a Ford, KC Jensen, Mitchell or Cards’ Bernal . I’d still offer slightly less, $12M or $13M AAV, not $15M,

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          1. The offense was terrible. Realmuto, Stott, and the outfield terrible. So you want to keep good defensive players like Realmuto and Stott. Not me. I sign Ranger. Bergman, package Marsh, bohm and prospect to get Marte if possible. Then offer two yrs 20 million to badger,

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             1. two yrs 20 million to badger, ……..is that Honey Badger?

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    5. Langford 151 K’s last year not a player you normally like, why trade a possible 2 starting pitcher for him?

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       1. In his age 23 MLB season, he had a 13% walk rate along with 22 homers and 22 stolen bases. His 26% k rate is not a concern at all to me. He’s also an excellent defender with + 16 DRS. And he is a right handed batter.

          Honestly, I am not sure Texas does this deal. But DD would do it in a second.

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          1. I think Texas would want more than Painter – perhaps also wanting someone like Escobar as well as McFarlane. That would be a big give up by the Phillies and could seriously backfire, but Langford is really good and fits perfectly into their line-up. He put up a 5.6 WAR in 134 games while hitting .241. That is really hard to do. It shows that he is doing everything other than hit for average at an extremely high level. Langford is probably a borderline star already, but could easily develop into one of the top 20 players in baseball as soon as next year. He is a wholly terror at the plate. Honestly, if they trade for him it’s going to start with Painter or Miller and then some other players.

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             1. I meant to type holy terror – I wholly missed on my word choice, lol.

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    6. v, we are simpatico.

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20. Hah….could help, but the luxury tax threshold determination comes from a different pot of money. Steve Cohen of the Mets, not the Steve Cohen of PhuturePhillies, has experienced that…he could easily sail thru the threshold if he wanted, but would lose partial drafting privileges among other things.

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    1. Dam Red Sox got gray plus 20 million, wonder if they would want Nola plus 39 million for a fresh turkey

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       1. And the Sox appear not to be done just yet…..Bregman, Schwarber, Alonso have been linked to the Sox this offseason, and there’s been some reporting that they’re looking at JTR as well….according to MLBTR.

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          1. Hope jtr signs there. Romus does Stott and Marsh get us Marte?

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             1. rocco……well the DBacks are listening to offers. If the DBAcks want to save money and invest it elsewhere ….maybe they would take that trade. Ketel Marte has a 6yr/.$116.5M contract, which began in 2025 and runs through the 2031 season.  Why not another aging LTC to the Phillies list that in two/three years from we will probably regret.

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    2. I don’t have an “e” in my last name. It’s Cohn. I also don’t have several billion in my bank account.

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       1. Sorry about that…..and maybe a billion awaits you .

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21. I’m probably in the minority, but I expect Nola to bounce back next year and be just fine. If he pitches like a true 3, then he’s worth that contact (or at least his AAV for next year).

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    1. Your not ininority. Lots of guys on Here think he is ace.

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       1. I didn’t get the sense that anybody thought of him as an ace anymore, but opinions on him are all over the place. As much as any pitcher I can remember, Nola’s career has been seriously impacted by managers keeping him in a batter or two too long. When he loses it, you’ve got to get him out of the game ASAP or next thing you know, he’s getting hammered for a three-run dinger.

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          1. more than any other pitcher I’ve seen with the Phillies Nola is really dependent on a couple of mph in his velocity. At 92-93 fastball has sharper movement and his curveball doesn’t flatten. At 89-90 all of his stuff becomes pedestrian.

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             1. I’m a Nola fan. I think he bounces back. Why?

                1. I think these deep post season runs have taken a toll on his arm. I think he gets the rest his arm needs this winter, in addition to the lighter yer this year
                2. he’s a pitcher, not a flame thrower. Having to miss bats with movement is not new to him. He’ll do it again
                3. he’s already had to reinvent himself twice in he’s Phillies career. I’m sure he’ll figure it out

                he’s easily capable of being a top tier 3rd starter, now he just has to do it. My money is on a bounce back for next year.

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22. Interesting trade speculation here involving Painter makes me wonder what level of use readers expect Phils will get from him and what level of success in his rookie season. My idea is 10 wins over 171 innings.

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    1. I think nobody knows exactly what to expect out of Painter. Last year didn’t pan out the way anyone expected, but the velocity was pretty good for a guy coming off of TJ surgery. He showed so much promise before he got hurt that you’d really hate to give up on him too soon. Next year, I’m really only concerned about his continual improvement. If he’s a solid 4/5 to start but shows consistent improvement, that would be fine. Unless he’s on fire during ST, I expect he wouldn’t be promoted before mid-May or so. He has yet to dominate AAA – far from it.

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    2. Personally, I think alot of you who are hyped on Painter are going to be sorely disappointed. If we get 10 wins out of him, I will have been wrong. If the right deal comes down the pike, I trade him!

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23. For those who are proposing trades involving Painter, I offer a question and a comment.

    The question: Using 20/20 hindsight, would you have traded a young Ferguson Jenkins?

    The comment: Having seen Painter pitch in person [his last start for Lakewood], he remains the best Phillies pitching prospect since Jenkins, who went on to have a Hall of Fame career. That’s the caliber of pitcher you are proposing to trade.

    Personally, there are no circumstances under which I would trade Painter. Period.

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    1. I think Cole Hamels was their best pitching prospect since Jenkins, but Painter’s ceiling is very high and he’s among the best pitching prospects they’ve ever had. The question is what to make of last year. It did happen and he was very hittable. Just an adjustment period? A new normal? I don’t know but given his ceiling and his recovery process, it would be hard to part with him now.

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    2. Hi velo pitchers coming back from TJ will always have questions about their return to pre-TJ. Thor, among others, did not make it back fully. Then you have many success stories also.

       July will be three years from the surgery, that is plenty long enough to determine if he will be the pitcher everyone expects him to be.

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       1. Three yrs is long time. Hope he gets his stuff back

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       2. Three years is a long time, but sometimes guys don’t reach their peak until many, many years after the surgery. Zack Wheeler was out for surgery around 2015 but really didn’t become a dominant pitcher until 2020 or so. If Painter lacked velocity, I might agree with you – because the guys who lose velocity have huge problems – like Syndergaard. But his velocity is pretty similar to his pre-surgery speed. My sense is that his delivery has changed – in a way that is not helpful to his abilities as a pitcher and makes him easier to hit. Whether that’s permanent or not, whether he can recapture his ability to command a baseball the way he once did or not – who knows? But I get their reluctance to trade him because his upside is enormous.

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24. I’m somewhat intrigued by Ivan Herrera of the Cardinals. He’s a righty that crushed lefties last year, and has a pretty strong obp. I wonder if Kevin Long could untap some more of the bat.

    The downside is that he seems like a DH only.

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25. The disastrous contract given to Anthony Rendon (7/245) is now nearing it’s conclusion. The Angels are trying to negotiate how much money Rendon will get (1/38 left) if he decides to retire. There is just no way around it, the Angels got zip out of this deal. The first 6 years of the deal, Rendon delivered 3.9 WAR (not a typo). And for that, Rendon banked $207M. Rendon and Boras should be ashamed of themselves for their production.

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    1. And the other LTC that was not that great of a return on investment for them was the Albert Pujols signing. Though better than a 3.9WAR for sure…..Pujols generated about a 14WAR for them in his 10 years with them.

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       1. i know if I owned a team 5 yr max on contracts. I pay more per yr. But those 10-12 yrs deal are terrible

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          1. rocco…you would need to have an extremely good minor league pipeline running…….the top free agents would look elsewhere.

             Then again the Braves only give out those contracts to young stars like Albies and Acuna…..buying out their arb years and then tacking on 2 more of their free agent years. And they won their WS, so they got a pass for awhile with their fanbase.

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          2. And your fanbase would constantly complain about how cheap you are since your team would never have top players.

             you would be owning the Marlins or Pirates.

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26. The Phils would have liked a buy out clause in the contract they signed with Scott Kingery. I don’t think complacency was the problem so much as his single-minded pursuit of being a power bat, a different kind of player than what he was cut out to be.

    Phils can’t touch the 76ers for contracts offered with a wish and a prayer.

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    1. Flea, you mean the 70 Sick Bays, don’tcha?

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       1. I think maybe that is what I must have meant. Something about thoroughbreds afraid to leave the barn. But still getting fed.

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27. I am shocked that the Blue Jays made a big splash by giving Dylan Cease 7/210 (with deferrals). I did not think the Blue Jays had it in them to throw out money like this (after Vlad’s deal), but it’s well known that the Blue Jays have had to overpay to sign FAs. Cease will soon be 30 but he’s been alternating good and bad seasons. His 6.4 WAR season in 2022 is looking like an outlier. Cease is durable but the Blue Jays are paying him to be a 3-4 WAR pitcher and he’s not consistently that. It’s a big overpay in my opinion.

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    1. its surprising but… the Blue Jays are in the AL EAST. Thats a rough division. They will never win without spending against the Yankees & RedSoxs. If you recall, they were Apparently players for Ohtani… they weren’t bluffing. They paid Vlad Jr 500mil and now Cease 210mil… in an odd twist, you can argue they technically got Ohtani, just in a round about way. 2 roster spots but will see if Vlad Jr & Cease > 2 way Ohtani

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       1. The Blue Jays went after Ohtani, but he’s a superstar and Toronto has a large asian population.

          The Blue Jays have always been behind the Red Sox and Yankees because they haven’t spent enough. Now that they are trying to be one of the big boys, we’ll see how long that lasts.

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28. Wonder if this sets the Market for Ranger.? Maybe 6 / 150 ?

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    1. Could set the market, though Cease does not have Boras as an agent…Boras will shoot higher I would think. I am thinking he will ask for 6/$175M

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       1. 29 million a yr, Wow his injury history will scare some away.

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          1. Boros always sets a higher bar. It works, but sometimes the player ends up signing late at a lower price.

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       2. Romus you bring your turkey to Cascia yet?

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          1. LOL……no. Heading up to son’s and family. Happy Thanksgiving rocco…and enjoy the day….maybe Andy Reid will win one for the Birds in Dallas.

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             1. Happy Thanksgiving

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29. Does anyone think the pending labor contract inflates the value of prospects? If the owners are successful getting a salary cap, do teams concerns with being “under the cap”influence their thoughts on trading prospects? Or is the thought of a MLB salary cap unrealistic?

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    1. There is one thing you have to remember if a ‘hard cap’ is ever established, there will be a hard floor to go along with it…….so those small market teams that try to go really cheap, will need to pony up to meet the floor. And I can see MLBPA demanding that floor to be pretty darn high.

       I do not think the thought of trading prospects for established player will change. It will continue as it always has been.

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       1. I don’t see a hard cap being established. If MLB tried to do that, it would result in a major work stoppage because players simply will not accept that – it could literally ruin an entire season. But I could see MLB setting a floor (the players wouldn’t mind that if it was reasonable and was not accompanied by a hard cap) and I can see the tax threshold becoming more and more punitive (much higher taxes, but more than that, significant losses of draft picks and other punitive measures). I think we are on the verge of having the more plentiful small and mid market teams turn on the really big market teams in a major way – and why shouldn’t they? They are in the majority and the system is so tilted against them. This haves and have nots model is extreme and is biggest problem in MLB right now – the small market teams have no shot of staying competitive for more than a few years before they need to rebuild again. It’s horrible for the entire sport. Ultimately, I think what happens is that the owners and the majority of the players end up with a new CBA that is focused on the majority of MLB teams and the majority of players, to the partial detriment of the biggest market teams (Phillies included, although it really will mostly impact the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees – but don’t worry about them, they will be fine and will still be able to spend more than anyone else) and the biggest stars whose top end contracts will be curtailed to a degree.

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          1. There’s talk that the Brewers don’t want their 2026 payroll to be over $130M. Hard to compete when the Phillies are pushing $300M, let alone the Dodgers.

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30. Questions, if there is a major league lockout will the minor leagues still be able to play? is there a realistic shot that the Phillies will be able to sign an Asian player?

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    1. That’s a good question.

       Historically, the MLBPA only represented major leaguers and work stoppages did not affect the minor leagues (or minor leaguers), which kept playing on during strikes and lock outs. But under the new CBA with the settlement of the minor leaguers’ prior law suit, they are covered by the CBA and are represented by the MLBPA, so the answer is yeah, it actually might affect them, although my guess/hope is that the minor leagues would keep playing on. It’s a great question.

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       1. I wonder if they stop the dodgers, deferring money

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          1. rocco……..I don think they can stop it…..they may just try to alter the ground rules, ie limiting the total number a team can carry under that venue.

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       2. Thank û, I as well hope that the minor leagues will still be playing if a lockout happens.

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          1. The answer is . . . there are no strikes or lockouts per the minor league CBA assuming, at the time of the big league stoppage the minor league agreement remains in effect (even if it did, there’s very little incentive for minor leagues players to strike or clubs to lock them out – everyone gets hurt by this with not much upside).

             ARTICLE XXII—No Strike / No Lockout During the term of this Agreement, the Association, on behalf of Minor League Players, will not engage in, authorize or threaten a strike. The Clubs will not lock out Minor League Players during the term of the Agreement.

             So good news for you. If there’s a work stoppage in the big leagues while minor league agreement remains in effect (through at least 2027), our other boys of summer will keep playing on!

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             1. Nice, thank û

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       3. Not 100% sure, but it looks like the minors can still operate. However, any prospects on the 40 man roster will NOT be able to participate. That would be a major issue for Moises Chace as he would be missing valuable time to get his arm back in shape.

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          1. If not being able to rehab at the Complex, maybe he can go down to the DR and do it there .

             Though, if I am mistaken, players on LTIR are still afforded medical coverage.

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          2. Well that’s not so nice

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    2. During the last lockout, the minor leagues proceeded as usual. The only minor league players affected were those on the 40-man roster. They were not able to take part in minor league spring training or the subsequent minor league season.

       This lockout, the minor leagues have a negotiated basic agreement in place for the 2023 season through the 2027 season. The major league basic agreement expires in December following the 2026 season (the term of the agreement is 2022-2026). So, yes, there will be a minor league season in the very likely event of a major league lockout.

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       1. Oops, didn’t see the other responses before responding. Good to see we’re on the same page.

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          1. Jim….what about the guys who were initially on the 60 day IL at the end of the season, then the administrative change was made, but still have not recovered and must go thru rehab…..can they go to the Complex and do they continue to get medical treatment?

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31. sorry if I am a little off topic but when we talk about prospects I always think of Mike Anderson. I was too young to follow him when he was in the minors. Recently looked at his age 20 triple A season (1971). 330 average, 36 hrs, ops 1086.
    I think he got hit by a pitch. Was wondering if some of the old timers on this site can shed some light on his prospect status. Was he hyped? The real thing?

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    1. Yes …he was hyped…him and the Bull. He had more athletic skills then Luzinski. Great OFer, plus arm and speed….but his bat failed him when he reached the majors.

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       1. thanks Romus.
          Not many 20 year old Phillies prospects have had a year like Anderson’s. .

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    2. I never remember watching Anderson but my guess is that he couldn’t hit major league breaking pitches or well commanded fastballs or some combination of that. His age 20 season in AAA is one for the ages. Very, very, very few prospects hit that well in AAA at such a young age and become big league busts, which tells me that he just couldn’t handle something that big league pitchers do and have always done.

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       1. Gregg Jefferies also had a ridiculously great minor league career and never lived up to those expectations, but in fairness to Jefferies, he was a really solid, and even sometimes spectacular, major leaguer – his two seasons with the Cardinals were fantastic and he was a solid player on the Phillies and Mets – he just never became the superstar everyone expected.

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    3. I do remember watching him- he was our best hitting prospect. Turned out he couldn’t hit a major league curveball.

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       1. Phillies traded Anderson to Cardinals for Ron Reed. That went well for Phils.

          question: was the Curtis Mead for Cris Sanchez the most lop sided (in Phillies favor) Phillies trade since Wise for Carlton?

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          1. Willie there were a few,,,Schilling-Grimsley…. Halladay’s trade…..JTR was a winner,,,,,Garry Maddox was a winner,,,,,Brad Lidge from Houston…….maybe even Cliff Lee…..then there was the Bunnung trade and Don Demeter……they were not all gigantic lop side wins, but they were winners.

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             1. Bunning

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32. • Romus is oldest guy on here. He must know Anderson

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    1. Rocco, ……. Romus, was the guy who convinced Robert Anderson to surrender at Fort Sumter. It’s a long story, but ask Romus about it!😲

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33. My dream offseason scenario:

    1. Sign Bo Bichette to play second base: 6/$180
    2. Trade Bohm, Stott, and Casty to Seattle for Harry Ford and Matt Brash
    3. Sign Bregman for 5/$160
    4. Sign Tucker for 7/ $210
    5. Trade Marsh, Rincones, and Kerkering to St. Louis for Brendan Donovan

    Lineup:

    1. Trea (SS)
    2. Harper (1B)
    3. Bregman (3B)
    4. Tucker (RF)
    5. Bichette (2B)
    6. Kemp (DH)
    7. Donovan (LF)
    8. Ford (C)
    9. Crawford (CF)

    Rotation:

    1. Wheeler
    2. Sanchez
    3. Luzardo
    4. Painter
    5. Nola
    6. Walker

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    1. This is a joke right? If not, then I’m stunned that people still feel that these projections are remotely possible.

       You know that DD already mentioned that a $400M payroll is not possible right? Signing those 3 players will imply a $400M payroll.

       The first trade has no basis in reality. Bohm and Casty has no value. Stott has barely any value. And you want a top 100 prospect AND a good bullpen arm?

       The second trade is relatively possible but if you’re fed up with Marsh, pretty sure other teams know it also. And they know Marsh’s issues with lefties as well. Not that Donovan had that much success with lefties either. Giving up on a pre-arbitration Kerkering seems like an overreaction. I don’t think Kerkering is going anywhere. Rincones is a lotto ticket, he’s not moving the needle in any trade.

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       1. You need to learn math. No where near $400 let alone $300ish.

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       2. Forgot to mention that no one is signing Tucker for 7-$210.

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       3. Bad math, Guru

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       4. That’s actually less than $300, Guru.

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34. Your math is no correct. That’s barely $300 million.

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35. I honestly don’t believe todays owners care that other owners are willing to spend exorbitant amounts of $$$ on their payroll. Today’s owners are in it for the asset. An asset is that is so rare it can’t help but gain in value.

    Additionally they see that you can win enough to make the playoffs and occasionally make it to a WS NOT being the spend leader.

    They say nice things like we want to win championships, spend stupid money blah blah blah but at the EOD they are well seasoned business people. They know their asset is only going to increase in value regardless.

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    1. DMAR…..well, we will have to se what happens next Dec. They may just stop it all, to get what they feel they need. MLB’s constitution requires approval by a majority of the team owners to ratify a new CBA, which means at least 16 of the 30 owners must vote in favor.  While only a simple majority is technically required, historical votes often show strong consensus. For example: The most recent CBA iwas approved by a unanimous 30-0 vote among the owners. Not sure that will happen this time around.

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       1. at minimum, I think the MLB needs a CBT Floor, a pretty high one at that. It woud do a few things…

          Get better players on these small market teams, increase the small market team’s Cinderella story chances :), be a landing zone for players who contracts are what out of line with current abilities. Im not knocking Castellanos, but him or walker, this would be a great thing for the league. Rendon is another one that comes to mind. If gives the team who are able & willing to spend a mulligan. It might also give players who are no longer chasing the ring over a final payday, more teams to negotiate with. So if they want to coast into retirement with more cash, they can do so in the small market teams.

          As I’ve said before, I’d propose removing the sunken costs & minor league salaries from the CBT tax calculations. This is the spenders can keep adding/shifitng players on & off teams. Will see what happens, sounds like the owners are going to get what they want though.

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    2. Of course the other owners care that a select few owners can spend virtually whatever they want and essentially be able to buy WS contenders year after year. They care because generally the people who own teams are incredibly competitive people. They got where they are because they won and they expect to win. Second, they care because the system depresses the value of their teams, especially the small market teams. The team is only worth as much as a its projected future revenue streams. If a team is non-competitive, those revenue streams shrink. People don’t go to games, people don’t watch games on TV, and people don’t buy merchandise. Perpetually bad teams are worth less. So, yeah, they want their teams in the mix so money is spent and the value of their franchises increase. The revenue inequality is baseball’s biggest problem right now. I cannot overstate how big of a problem this is and it must be addressed.

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36. hmmmm…

    What if the Phillies resign Bader, bring in Bellinger, trade for either Tatis or Marte (probably Marte) and bring back Hoskins?

    Is that a better team than Schwarber & Realmuto. Assuming Phils catcher is already on the roster. Adding 3-4 bats. You lose a lot of leadership per se, but you have a pretty lengthened lineup. From what Yankees fans are saying, Bellinger was their MVP. His offense + game saving defense. The outfield would be pretty tight between him, Bader, & Crawford.

    Figure you lose what it takes to get Marte… probably Miller or Crawford is my guess, but not both.

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    1. I’m sure Dombrowski is working off a blueprint supported by ownership. think the mandate is not so much to keep the window of success open a bit longer but instead to spend and manage so that the team is a perennial contender in a sport with ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’.’

       Young talent is what perpetuates a winner. Budget constraints reinforce a need to be more than just a team of well paid veterans playing on their final contracts.

       The Phils became relevant through free agency after a nearly 10-year dry spell. Maintaining the team’s relevance at a manageable payroll level depends upon the retention and development of the life blood, the prospects and other young talent.

       They could likely put Aidan Miller and others in a package for Ketel Marte. The D-backs seem to be rethinking the wisdom of signing him last winter to a 6-year deal.

       That move doesn’t serve the blueprint and I doubt if it gets made, or, if it does, only with a package that allows the Phils to retain their top tier prospects.

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       1. I agree with all of this. The team must develop and feature young talent if it wants to stay good over the long haul.

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          1. Good points Flea, many times the offseason has the mind wondering. I can let Hoskins go and give Kemp a real chance on the everyday roster. Not getting Tatis or Marte, in that case, how are you liking Bellinger, Bader vs Schwarber & Realmuto? The OF defense would be good all the time… minimizing the need for a Rojas type replacement late in the game. Im guessing most would want Schwarber & Realmuto back over Bellinger & Bader. You could likely add another FA to that mix if went Bellinger/Bader. Will see. I expect youth promotions if they are not traded, and 3 FA added. if they swing and miss on Schwarber’s, I expect 4 FA. Will see. Twiddling my thumbs hear, waiting on Schwarber to decide everyone’s future!

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             1. I think the Phils are prioritizing Schwarber just as the Yankees seem to be prioritizing Bellinger. No team will sign both.

                If the Phils are outbid on Schwarber, I don’t see Bellinger as their fallback. Outbidding the Yankees for BellingerI don’t see as a viable off-season goal for the Phillies. The same for trying to outbid the Dodgers for Tucker.

                That’s why the buzz now seems to be on the infield signing a Bregman, Bichette or Marte (switch hitter) as a supporting right-haned bat. Unless it’s via trade, I don’t expect to add better than Harrison Bader or Rob Refsnyder to the OF. I’m ok with that as the market doesn’t offer much in free agent right-handed hitting outfielders this time around. If only Castellanos could fill that need.

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                1. A scenario that comes to mind if the Phils are outbid on Schwarber is that the Phils re-sign Realmuto, sign Bregman or Bichette and offer the DH job in 2026 to Castellanos. And add an outfielder like Bader through free agency or someone else (Tyler O’Neill ?) via trade.

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                2. One of the very last things I want is for Castellanos to be the DH. He’s a bad outfielder. He’s a bad hitter. You need at least a very good hitter at DH – he’s not that; not even close.

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                3. I think the Yankees are waiting for Bellinger’s price to go down, which is hard considering that Boras is his agent.

                   There’s no doubt that Schwarber is likely Philadelphia’s #1 option, but I don’t think Schwarber will sign until after Murakami makes his decision. They are very similar players.

                   I’m actually anticipating the decisions from Murakami and Imai.

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37. And yet another rumor……Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo….Astros outfielder Jake Meyers could be an under-the-radar target and fit for Philly, which has a murky centerfield situation at the moment:

    The Astros are open to moving him for a controllable major-league starter, according to people briefed on their discussions. And the interest in Meyers entering his age-30 campaign is considerable, other clubs say. The Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets and Rays are among the teams exploring upgrades in center field, along with the Orioles, Arizona Diamondbacks and Kansas City Royals. Meyers is an excellent defender. But if the Astros are skeptical of him replicating his offensive performance, they perhaps could get similar production from Zach Cole and/or Jacob Melton.

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    1. ‘controllable major-league starter,‘…maybe Taiwan for a year control

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38. 7/$210 by the Jays for Cease that’s surprising to me…

    thought he would be in the Nola range.

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    1. The Jays are betting on him having his best years ahead of him, just as the Phillies bet on Zack Wheeler at around the same age. No doubt the stuff is there. What’s really interesting is that if you put the two Zack Wheeler contracts together (8 years), you get a contract that is similar to the AAV and years that the Jays gave Cease, not accounting for inflation.

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    2. DMAR…over-payment…..in three/four years they will regret that. Though Cease has pitched more than 165 innings in each of the past five seasons, arms are not guranteed to last at his age by then. He will be mid-30s then.

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       1. Well, yeah, it’s risky for sure and I wouldn’t have given him that many years. But Wheeler and Scherzer were the same age when they did their first big contracts – in fact, this contract is identical to Scherzer’s except for the inflation (which matters, of course).

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          1. When the Phillies signed Wheeler it was three years after his TJ…..and he only pitched less than 475 innings with the Mets in those three years post TJ.

             Cease on the other hand, has pitched close to 900 innings in the last 5 years…..and it has been 12 years since his TJ…..as a senior in HS….and has pitched almost 1400 innings post-TJ (minors and majors).

             So like you say it is a risky signing…..and I am with you.the length is, IMO, two years too long, and the AAV is about $3M more than what I think it should have been. But the Jays must be flushed with money and need to win now.

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             1. A team like the BlueJays, they gotta overpay to get stars imo. Not to bad,but if they want to win now, and convince Bichette times have changed, its not a bad plan.

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                1. The Blue Jays have to overpay to convince American players to play in Canada (which also means moving their families to Toronto).

                   But giving Cease $210M is a bad idea. Like Romus said, he has a lot of mileage on that arm. My buddy, the ex-Blue Jays fan, doesn’t think his arm will hold up. I tend to agree.

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                2. His arm may not, but it could as well. I wanted Cease for the Phillies a while back. Would’ve been nice. If I recall, Painter woudl have been sent out in the deal. Anyways, signing Cease could be the sign Bichette needed to know they are serious about staying a contender. So.. it’s an overpay but it also helps them bring back Bichette. I can see that happening. Luckily the Phillies dont have that perception. It Fyou rememebr, the Realmuto trade was essentially a request for Harper to sign. At least that it helped a lot to show them how serious they were. To a lessor degree, McCutchen as well. Players who are serious about winning, im assuming use that as leverage to sign/resign. A handshake deal thats not sealed until the “Let me see who you bring in” process is completed.

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                3. I think the Blue Jays giving Cease $210M is more of a sign that they won’t be able to re-sign Bichette. Bo obviously wants $200M+ but his foot speed really fell off and he probably will have to move off SS in the near future. The Jays have money to spend but they are a public company so they won’t be going too crazy. According to Cots, the Jays are projected to be at $245M for now. I think the Blue Jays are waiting for Bichette to lower his price.

                   As a comparison, the Phillies are at $232M, but no Schwarber, no Realmuto, no Ranger, etc.

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39. Devin Williams gets 3/45 plus 6M bonus. Yikes!!!! Picking up Alvarado’s option looking better and better each day.

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    1. Will he be a Diaz replacement or his set up man ?

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       1. The Mets want Diaz back but they don’t want to give him a 5 year deal when he’s turning 32 in March. Diaz opted out and left $38M on the table. So he’s probably looking for a 5/100 deal. I think if Diaz is willing to go 3/75, the Mets will take that.

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40. I read that Mets offered 5/150. If true, Schwarber is gone

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    1. rocco….you are correct. I think the length of the contract means a lot to him. But if the Mets……with Williams now and Alonso maybe, they will reach another threshold in the tax structures.

       Hey….who needs a hard cap!

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    2. I think the Phillies will match that offer and more. I was just thinking this morning that I think the Phillies will go to 6 years and more than $30 m AAV – think 6/190 or 6/200. Now, I don’t think they SHOULD do that contract, but I think they WILL. If all they have to do is match 5/150 – I think they would do that in a heartbeat.

       By the way, as I’ve said before, I’m perfectly fine with the Phillies not signing Schwarber and signing Alonso instead. Alonso doesn’t hit quite as many homers, but he’s two year younger and he hits for a better average. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s righty where your other big star is a lefty. My view is that, over the expected length of their contracts, Schwarber and Alonso are likely to be fairly close in production. It also doesn’t hurt that Alonso is almost universally viewed to be a great guy and good in the clubhouse – he would fit right in here.

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       1. I like Schwarber, but giving him 5 or 6 years will not end well. Schwarber will be 33 for the 2026 season.

          I too would rather give a 4-5 year deal for Alonso as a full time DH.

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          1. Many of these contracts will not end well, which doesnt matter “IF” the begging & middle are what was expected.

             You can easily have dead money on the books when you are rebuilding, waiting for the Painter’s, Miller’s,and Crawford’s to arrive to replaced the aged out Schwarber type contracts. Not saying that is what’s happening now, but you get the idea. The FO has to be thinking “this is the window we go all in” & this is the “rebuild window” … in the Phillies case it can be the “retool window” … but those conversations have to be happening. The error by the FO is not properly identifying those windows. Ranger is likely gone, Wheeler is a ?, Nola is a ?, Painter is a ?… So how does the FO view this team? Retool vs All in? I’m guessing retool.

             If Schwarber is asking for 6/200 ish … you really got to consider getting Tucker instead. It’s likely less of a ceiling in terms of power, but a less risky move overall.

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             1. We already have dead money on our books: Castellanos and Walker. And you can see how it has already limited the Phillies in terms of not going over the next luxury tax tier.

                If Wheeler can’t recover, his remaining money will be dead money. It’s a near certainty that Nola will have dead money, it’s a matter of how much (you’re hoping maybe 2 years, but after this season 3 is more likely).

                As for Tucker, he wants $400M+. He probably won’t get it but I think $350M is definitely possible.

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                1. And down the line, Turner is going to have a ton of dead money. If we are not very careful, in about 5 years we are going to have about $100 million in dead money – a somewhat frequent byproduct of a DD administration.

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                2. ah yes, the legend of DD and his leaving organization in a shamble of bad contracts. Too bad it’s more myth than fact.

                   He’s been around for many years and he had some bad misses but the constant refrain that he leaves ruin in his wake is simply not true.

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             2. Tac3…..”….rebuilding, waiting for the Painter’s, Miller’s,and Crawford’s to arrive …..”

                That way is passé……..those teams doing it thru the farm system does not really materialize, they come close but….the star free agent signing will have to put the team over the top. The Dodgers seem to be writing another chapter to free agency. I think the Braves were an outliner in the home grown title winner. But they hit the jack pot on Acuna, Albies, Freeman and Swanson….not sure many teams can get those type players, collectively, thru their systems anymore.

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                1. True. The Braves got extremely lucky… arguably twice when their stars were willing to sign way below market value for security. The perfect storm.

                   The Phillies can operate in way other teams can’t, they are a top 5 financial team. Most teams, have to find another way. The Dbacks are interesting study. You see the worst of buying FA in the Mets & Angles. The Dodgers make it work because they have young talent coming through. Look at the Royals, Look at the Tigers. They can’t really do what the Phillies do, they can carry multiple bad contracts. The Phillies can both overpay & go extra years, or at least it seems. Owners are saying they are operating at a loss. In any case, whatever the Phillies can do, it’s the easiest way theoretically to a championship. It’s still difficult, but they definitely have better odds than say the Royals or CLE, year in and year out.

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                2. Romus, I’m not buying it. It’s a cop out.

                   Current homegrown Dodger players include catcher Will Smith, pitchers Bobby Miller, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and Gavin Stone, and outfielder Andy Pages. Other notable former homegrown players who have emerged from their system include pitchers Walker Buehler and Julio Urias, and position players Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger. “

                   Compare that with the quality of the Phils’ homegrown talent over the comparable period. The Dodgers outspend the Phils but also out-develop young talent compared to the Phils.

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                3. Flea…….but who stirred the drink….Ohtani, Yamamto, Freeman, Teoscar, Roki, and thru the big trade Mookie…other than Will Smith, those other players are ornaments to the Christmas tree. Trying to win the WS just thru the draft would be futile. Free agency and deft trades are the key component…..and the large market teams can max out on the best free agents. Small market teams and their poor fans can dream.

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                4. Romus,

                   Braves weren’t an outlier to develop homegrown ws winners. 

                   Astros did it too. 

                   Twice!!

                   2017: Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Springer, Gurriel, Keuchel, McCullers

                   2022: (still some from ‘17, plus had added…) Pena, Tucker, Alvarez*, Framber Valdez, Urquidy, Luis Garcia, Cristian Valdez

                   While the Braves organic build was very impressive!, it’s the Astros that deserve soooo much credit for being the ultimate draft/sign/development org in mlb!   The lists of players above are sick! 

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                5. John K…..thanks for reminding me about that…forgot about the Astros…..they did it the organic way.

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41. You got 25 mil …

    are you signing Ranger or Diaz?

    Alvarado, Diaz, Duran to pair with Wheeler, Sanchez, Luzardo, Nola, and Painter…

    or

    Strahm, Alvarado, Duran to pair with Wheeler, Sanchez Ranger, Luzardo, Nola. (Painter)

    I’m thinking Diaz, if he is open to moving off the Mess. Phillies would be a pitching heavy team but get a more balanced lineup, it woudl be dangerous in the playoffs.

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    1. Neither. I’d sign Emilio Pagan for the pen and put the rest of free agent money into the bats. Diaz is a second closer. Don’t see a need at the price. Ranger I sign only if he can’t get his big pay day elsewhere, if the Phils have not already overspent. This would be a decision to take as spring training begins and not before. If Ranger had been ‘leaning in’ on the Phils and not on the biggest bag, he would have been re-upped 2 years ago.

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       1.  ‘If Ranger had been ‘leaning in’ on the Phils and not on the biggest bag, he would have been re-upped 2 years ago.‘

          Interesting………we do not know if the Phillies actually offered Ranger a year or so ago, who decided to switch to Boras.

          Or, they offered and he refused. I’d liked to know….maybe someone knows that.

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          1. I agree. I think the Phillies could have easily signed Ranger to a longer term deal a few years ago, but likely passed on that chance. While I probably would have engaged if I were them, in their defense, Ranger has often been injured, his innings have been limited, he has been inconsistent year-to-year and during most seasons and, frankly, his conditioning leaves something to be desired. But when he’s “on”, it’s a beautiful thing to behold and he can be as good as any pitcher on planet earth for a month or more at a time. He is one of my favorite Phillies ever and I am going to miss watching him a lot. His transition in 2021 to a very underrated middle/late inning reliever to a shut-down ace (he absolutely was an ace that year) was nothing short of astonishing. He pitched to a 5.6 WAR over 106 innings and a 1.36 ERA. That’s insane. And it all happened pretty much by accident when other starting pitchers were injured – his move to the rotation was not intended to be permanent. But it made Ranger’s career.

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             1. Following on those thoughts, I think projecting Ranger’s career over the next 5 or 6 years with any level of confidence is nearly impossible. I have pretty good idea of what Paul Skenes’ and Tariq Skubal’s next 5 years are likely to look like (short of a bad arm injury that could happen to any pitcher), but for Ranger, who knows?

                If you told me that he would have 2 or 3 okay years and would then would fade out, I’d believe it. But if you told me that he would contend for multiple Cy Young awards and would become a legendary post-season pitcher, I’d believe that too.

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                1. Dodgers may be a team that can afford the Boras’ demands for Ranger……..or for sure their neighbor down the road, AJ Preller. The Padres always take the big chances and seem to come up short in the end.

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    2. Romus,

       “other than Will Smith, those other players are ornaments to the Christmas tree.”

       I’ve been waiting for Christmas for the Phils for nearly 20 years. I was not downplaying free agency. I was responding to the impression you created that the Dodgers were built entirely through free agency. The names of recent Dodger signs are there to be seen. Compare that with Nola, Stott, Bohm, Kerkering, O’ Hoppe, Kingery etc. and it’s not even a meaningful conversation.

       With their player development history, the Phils have a problem they can’t spend their way out of.

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       1. Yes that is a problem, especially with Dave D giving those ridiculous long term high AAV contracts to players like Casty and Walker…and whoever else he does in the next weeks coming up.

          .

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          1. I think Casty was fair at the time. 7 mil below Harper, a guy coming off a .300 season (near it) near 40 double 40hrs. Was he considered the better hitter than schwarber? At the time, probably. Remember, Casey missed a month-ish of the season that year. That player never showed up for Philly but that’s FA. Schwarber was better than expected. Win some lose some. Most knew Schwarber as a red light player for the playoffs. Basically the Danny Biere of baseball. Walker… I got nothing 🙂

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             1. IMO, with Casty and Walker…the length of the contracts were a year or two too long. A four year contract for each would have made it easier trading them after three….but then again they may not have signed originally unless it was for 5 years.

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             2. Tac, remember the real story about Casty. He fell victim to the Ben Simmons curse by taking his old home.

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42. I think the Mets are playing games with the Schwarber talk. Soto will absolutely NEED to be a DH in the very near future. You can’t have Schwarber and Soto on the same team. Although, I give it two more seasons before Soto starts wanting to be traded.

    And no thanks to Diaz. Look at the back of his baseball card. The guy is an alternate year performer. Lights out one year, pedestrian the next. We don’t need to spend big money on a guy like that.

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43. What about Francisco Renteria? 16 year old competing in a home run derby against Salvador Perez and Ronald Acuna. Finished above them and half off the leader. He’s the new and improved Ortiz, our big LA signee.

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    1. I’m glad the Phillies haven’t given up on trying to find a LA star just because prior Phillies’ administrations chose the wrong guys. If they hit on one of the big guys every 5 years, that could change the path of the entire franchise. I’m excited to see what he does.

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       1. Still have my fingers crossed on, Acuna’s cousin, Aroon Escobar…well, at least until DD includes him in a trade.

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       2. https://en.albat.com/thedugout/mlb-venezuelan-prospect-who-snagged-a-4-million-bonus-steals-the-spotlight-in-phillies-20251203-0012.html

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44. Luke Morton in the Inquirer today insists Crawford is CF. The discord between him and DD on this is getting a bit weird.

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    1. I doubt there’s discord. DD is his boss but my guess is they all work together pretty well.

       Watching DD do his stuff over these last 5 or 6 years has been interesting. He’s very good at some things (roster building, under-the-radar trades, overall stewardship of an organization) and not always so good at others (like signing FAs to long term contracts). But I have really grown to like DD the person and can see why JM trusts him so much. In his candor, he reminds me a lot of Pat Gillick. I mean, he probably shouldn’t have made those comments about Bryce Harper because there was nothing good that could come of him being so honest, but he WAS honest and what he said was acccurate and was not meant to be a slight of Harper. It’s also been interesting seeing him try to build a long-term winner here and develop young players as part of that strategy. In other organizations, I’m pretty sure they told him to go for it and so he traded young players to maximize short-term goals. He has been very measured about who he trades on this team and I wasn’t expecting that from him.

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       1. Discord was probably the wrong word. In any case, I agree with you. I wonder whether DD has been trying to take pressure off of Crawford by downplaying the CF role.

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          1. I think the Phillies don’t want to hand the CF job to Crawford right away, especially with Bader still more or less in play.

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             1. Defensively, the Phillies see Crawford as more of a corner than a CF.

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                1. That jibes with what I’ve heard about his fielding in center not being all that great. Unfortunately, that diminishes value and more than a little bit.

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45. Romus HELP. This AD at pennstate is a moron

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    1. Head Coach Brian Kelly.

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    2. rocco…let’s see what he can do….did fairly well at ND…..at LSU was just average-and that is not acceptable in Baton Rouge……they only have 6 commits left…most recruits bolted when Franklin was fired….and some of the best went with him…….so transfer portal will be the avenue this year.

       The AD that really screwed things was Sandy Barbou…she gave Franklin that ridiculous contract ,,,,good things Hokies jumped in on him.

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46. My updated thoughts on FA. Give me Bregman and Bellinger to play 3b and RF respectively and let Schwarber sign elsewhere. Bohm can be moved for a prospect or as part of a bigger deal for a catching option. Defense is improved in multiple spots and the combined power between the 2 replaces Schwarber’s numbers.

    Also, would prefer to keep the DH spot available to rotate players through or as an option for a trade deadline pick-up.

    Fine with a JTR signing at a reasonable cost but if they can get a stopgap to pair with Marchan that works as well.

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47. Romus, rehabbing players on the 40 would not be permitted to work out at a Phillies facility nor with Phillies training/rehab staff during a lockout.

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    1. Ok,,,,,,I guess that would make sense.

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48. Cinci averaged a little under 27K fans a night I don’t see Schwarber leaving Philly, I don’t see him leaving Bryce and Trea or even Kevin Long although the hitting coach position is always tenuous.

    Sure he wants to get the most money he can out of JM so all things being close I see him back next year. Plus he is my wife’s favorite player 🙂

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    1. DMAR……,Cincy is home for him…….there could be family issues pulling him back home.

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       1. I still believe, if it’s 5 yrs phillies let him walk

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          1. We may never know, but sense is that the Phillies are at the very least ready to give him 5 years and $150 million and the question is going to be whether they can either go up to 6 years $180 or 5 years and a higher AAV (perhaps $32m for 5/$160). I think the AAV will be very similar for Alonso, but, due to his age, he’s going to get 6 years somewhere and perhaps here.

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             1. But, then there’s the miracle of Cristopher Sanchez. He is easily the most surprising prospect the Phillies have had during the history of this site and he might be the most surprising prospect in all of baseball over the last 10 years, perhaps after Tarik Skubal.

                In 2022, Matt Winkelman, whose views I respect immensely, had him ranked as #29 in our system and he projected as middle reliever. Last year, Sanchez pitched like a CY Young winner, generating 8 bWAR! Amazing.

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                1. Six years ago…..Nov 2019, Rays traded Sánchez for Mead. The site exploded….Matt Klentak was off his rocker. A win for the locals,, while Mead had a limited impact with the Rays before being traded again to the WSox back in July.  Amazing how that all turned out.

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       2. I might change my mind tomorrow nut I wouldn’t hate the Phils running it back with Schwarber (5 years), Realmuto (2 years), Bader (2 years) while losing the Castellanos contract and adding an outfielder like Rob Refsnyder and a reliever like Emilio Pagan. And a Luzardo extension.

          The delta would come from Painter and Crawford with the prospect of a Miller mid-year arrival. And having Bader for a full season.

          I’d prefer to trade for Rutschman and bringing in a younger catcher. But if that becomes too expensive of a deal, my fallback would be the above, And Murakami as fallback if the Phils can’t sign Schwarber.

          Under any scenario, the roster comes in at $300 M or slightly below. Anything above that is a bonus.

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          1. ILO of Bader…’Stros have Jake Meyers on the market….they need pitching, maybe a LHV/Reading arm could bring him in as the CFer.

             Or just maybe Taijuan Walker along with Griff or Jean Cabrera.

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          2. Pagan just re-signed with the Reds at 2/20 which is a fair number but he’s turning 35 in May.

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          3. I don’t know when Miller will be promoted or how he will do once he gets promoted, but if he struggles, they need to stick with him. He has a history of struggling mightily at certain levels and then suddenly, with no advance warning, a light goes on and he goes almost immediately from struggling to dominating. They need to be patient with him and keep putting him in there, even if it’s tough sledding in the early days.

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             1. Agree and that’s why I think, barring multiple injuries on the big-league roster, he is more likely to begin 2027 with the team vs. being a 2026 mid-year addition. Don’t need the pressure of a playoff race mixing with him possibly struggling out of the gate.

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                1. If he does, by a minor miracle, start off the season raking at LHV in April and May, and guys like Bohm or Stott or even Turner are slumping, the Philadelphia unwashed masses of fans, will be clamoring for him to be brought up.

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                2. I mean, if he’s ready, he’s ready. He ended last year in AAA very hot. If it carries over, he could easily be up by sometime in May. I also agree that if he’s not up relatively early (say by sometime in June), he’s not a guy I’d bring up in August.

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                3. Miller being hot for 8 games in September at Lehigh Valley means practically nothing. He is 21 years old. He is currently blocked at all 4 infield positions. Depending on whom the Phillies sign from the free agent pool, he may become even more blocked. His best route may be through second base. I’m going to pay close attention on where he takes reps this spring. I don’t think there is a need to rush him to the majors. Look how the Phillies handled a hot-hitting Crawford with a very mediocre outfield offensively. I don’t expect to see Miller until 2027 unless the wheels come off and the Phillies fall out of contention.

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       3. I hear that and imagine its a great leverage tool…

          But really the distance between Cincy and Philly for someone with that kind of coin is nothing. Also keep in mind the Reds Spring Training facility is in AZ. 4 Hours vs. 2 Hours to CLW.

          Maybe you’re right but I’m just not buying in until a deal is done and he’s not here.

          Not to mention does anyone believe the Reds can spend what it takes to contend over the length of that contract? I don’t and I think he may value winning more than most.

          Reds were 23rd in payroll last season. Not that he will take 20%-30% less to be here but I doubt the Reds are willing to go 20%-30% more than our offer.

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          1. DMAR……money could be the biggest motivator, who knows! Boston could also be a player in the hunt for him.

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49. Phuture Phillies Service Announcement

    Early in the comments thread, Guru questioned the seriousness of a post by Ricky Jordan, not the real Ricky Jordan but some clown who thought he would steal a former Phillies’ name. More on this guy later.

    Guru “showed his work” so to speak on why he thought the comment was not serious. He suggested that the three free agents would imply a $400M payroll and that the suggested trades were not likely to be possible.

    The Phillies are currently at $251,735,438 total costs with at least 4 vacancies on the projected active roster and another handful on the 40-man roster. Adding the free agents would increase the payroll by $92M per year. The suggested trade of two impending free agents (Castellanos and Bohm have one year of control) plus a player with just two years of control (Stott) for a top 50 prospect (3rd highest ranked catcher with 6 years of control) plus an effective reliever (with 3 years of control) is truly laughable.

    The other trade is also unlikely, spare parts and an effective reliever for an all-star second baseman to play in LF.

    So, the Phillies aren’t likely to shed any salary in this guy’s dream scenario, have a new projected payroll of $343,735,438, and still haven’t addressed catcher, the outfield, or reliever depth. I would also go as far to say that prying Donovan from the Cardinals would likely mean the inclusion of Arenado’s contract. Yuck!

    Four new commenters – Lauren, Susan, Suhail, and Mary, all chose this as their opportunity to chastise Guru’s math skills. All four of you are required to show YOUR work when denigrating another’s comment. As you can see from my work, Guru’s 400ish is a lot closer especially when you consider the Phillies still have work to do.

    And another thing, you are required to include your e-mail address as part of the sign-in process. Addresses that include dot-top-level-domain-names are suspect. Baily.me looks like a last name with a bogus extension. And Ricky Jordan you are blocked for using a porn site as your e-mail address. Not funny. For those of you who are curious he entered his e-mail as ducks@vagina.com.

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    1. SMH….

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50. Dam i been on that porn site all morning, I need help

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    1. The site and the dialogue benefit from having accountable participants.

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51. My idea that JM would somehow greenlight spending that took us well over the cap is a farse. I know that.

    It’s meant to instigate a discussion about how spending up to last years budget yields a much better team for 2026. 2025 was a really good team that benefitted from a notoriously weak NL East.

    And if you can’t afford to spend more it stands to reason you can’t afford to deplete what is a pretty weak farm system. As they will have to hope for some really good production out of those guys to settle the payroll down some.

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    1. The farm system discussion is so frustrating. I’ve been on this site for close to 20 years and you know how many years during that time we had a top 10 farm system? I’m thinking it’s probably none. The faces keep changing, and I think things have gotten somewhat better (the mid-2010s, when we blew 3 top 10 picks in a row, was BRUTAL) but we never develop an elite system.

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       1. I look at AJ Preller and the Pads…..their farm system is normally somewhere in the top 12 virtually every year…….and what has it ever got them, second-fiddle to the Dodgers, who go out and buy or trade for the stars. Preller will trade his best prospects for stars and it just comes up short…the one time he traded a very good pitcher named James Shields to the Sox for a Latin kid buried in their farm system, named Tatis, he hit the jackpot.

          Small market teams have to live and die by their farm systems…large market teams can find other ways to work around a poor system. But some budget restricted, but not so much cheap, large market teams…Braves and Astros…have seemed to find their way.

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          1. Don’t start me on AJ Preller. The Padres continue to fall short BECAUSE they trade all of their prospects away basically every single year. The Padres are not a small market team – they are top 10 in payroll – they have plenty of assets. If they weren’t so eager to trade away their talent every year to get talent at the trade deadline, they could be right up there with the Dodgers – or at least damn close. If I were a Padres fan I’d blow my freaking brains out.

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             1. When it comes to trading great prospects, Preller is like Ruben Amaro, Jr. on steroids. He trades virtually everyone and their prospects, as a group, tend to be excellent. I think it’s foolish in the extreme and it doesn’t help them in the long run.

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       2. TOOC – reading your first line got me thinking. I first found this site around the Anthony Gose, Jiwan James, Anthony Hewitt years myself. And yes, we’ve never had a great farm to brag about. We might have thought we did with the Trevor May, Jarred Cosart group, but wow. It’s been a long time of not really truly having a great minors group!

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          1. I don’t think I’ve been here 20 years, but long enough to see V1again’s picture age!

             I think the Phils cracked the top 10 once… during that time… maybe. I can’t be sure… but …. It’s go time. The next wave of propsects are … The new group of Rollins, Howard, Utley, and Hamels are here. Will they be as good? Well, they are here. If they make it to spring training …

             Painter, Crawford, and Miller (mid season realistic/deadline).

             I’d add Kemp into this group. The FO seems to be reallly high on him. I’m even thinking they believe he is a righted bat protection for Harper… potential in their eyes.

             There has to be a few surprises too… Like…. McGarry as reliever. Hopefully it’s for the Phillies and not another team. Plus Wolf could be fast tracked too. Will see… but this is what a lot of us been waiting for… probably damn close to 20 years too!

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             1. LOL…….WOLF!…you thinking of Randy….you must mean Wood?

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                1. ha! Brain fart for me… Randy Wolf. My one time favorite Phil.

                   I was working as a bartender for my ex at a small catering party one year for New Years. I got to serve him a few drinks. Pretty cool moment for my “serving career

                   For the record, I only gushed like a little school girl for a few seconds. I think it was 2004 or 2005

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                2. He was a character….once remember he said he rode the NY subway to Flushing to play the Mets.

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             2. Tac, yours is a truly excellent post. I say that maybe because I agree with it completely. I’m not one for ranking prospects within a system or doing a deep dive comparing the strength of competing farm systems. In the heat of a pennant race, these are irrelevancies.

                Give me a stream of young talent that the Phils develop and slot into the roster as they’re ready and as needed. If a guy like Otto Kemp, with little pedigree, can jump the prospect list and contribute, that’s what matters to me,

                One hopes the Phils can identify a prospect in the first or second round each year to advance rapidly through the system. A team that fails repeatedly with its first round picks has a problem. A team that goes long stretches without developing pitching talent has a problem. Ditto for developing outfielders.

                The playing field isn’t level when it comes to drafting prospects. The Phils have lost spots in the order through their free agent signings and payroll excesses.

                Having lost Caba, Tait and Abel recently, I hope they can offer playing time on the big team for Painter, Crawford, Miller and, of course, Kemp.

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                1. Let’s hope! We are going to find out one way or the other.

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    2. The Phillies played well against five of the six divisions, not just the NL East.

       Yes, they went 31-21 against their own division, winning 3 series and dropping one to the Mets.
       They won all 5 series against the AL East going 13-5.
       They won 4 series against the AL Central going 9-6, dropping one series to the White Sox of all teams.
       They went 9-6 against the AL West, sweeping Seattle and Texas, and dropping series against the Astros and Angels.
       They went 20-12 against the NL West taking the Dodgers series, sweeping 7 games from Colorado, tying 2 series, and losing a series to the Giants.
       The only division they struggled against was the NL Central where they went 14-16 dropping series to the Brewers and Cardinals, winning their series against the Cubs, and tying the other 2 series.

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52. I would be happy with one/two right handed outfielder/utility types that hit lefties and two right handed power relief pitchers. Crawford, Kemp, Marsh, Sosa, New guy for outfield. Bohm for last year (unless trade for mlb ready relief/outfield/starter which I doubt). Sosa/Stott platoon and dh rotates.

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53. How would the group feel about Kyle Schwarber at 5/$120M?

    How about JT at 3/$36M?

    Looking at the “major buyers” out there, I can’t see Schwarber really going anywhere else. Sure, Cincinnati would hold some appeal, but they cannot compete in dollars. Maybe they stretch it and go $20-$22M per, so the Phillies would have to beat them by a decent stretch. And since we are “far apart” with Schwarber, I can see us go for that 5th year.

    Same with JT. Everyone says 2/$30M would do it. That $15M luxury hit would hurt. But what if we spread it out a little bit and go 3/$36M?

    If we go by the common rumors, Kyle at $30M and JT at $15M would be a $45M hit to the tax. I believe those numbers to be too high and I think we can spread it out a little longer and therefore make the tax hit $36M. Add that onto the ~$255M payroll, that puts us at $291M. That leaves room for maybe Bader or some depth pieces on the staff? And of course, there can always be a trade somewhere.

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    1. pls no . 5 and 3 pls DD do t do it

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       1. WFAN of NY, talk show hosts are trying to get Schwarber to go to the Mets…they all about have him wearing NY stripes in Flushing.

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          1. Ithink if yankees and dodgers pass, then Mets sign him.

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    2. I’m giving JT max 2 years, to coincide with Wheeler. They both can leave the Phillies at the same time.

       I’m waiting to see if the Phillies get Murakami before getting serious about Schwarber. And even then, I’m asking Pete Alonso how much he wants. I go with the cheaper option.

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       1. I don’t want a guy who can’t hit 95 mph fastballs.

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    3. Schwarber will be paid much more than 5/$120 – I think the bidding starts at around 5/$150m – just my intuition. He’s not coming cheap and certainly not at a $24m AAV. I just don’t see it.

       I would not sign JT to a 3 year contract at the numbers people are discussing. Most catchers fall off a cliff, performance wise, at his age, and his offense is already way down. I’m not even happy they are probably going to be forced, by circumstance, to sign him for 2 years – he’s not going to be worth the contract but they have almost no other options.

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       1. But who’s going to throw $30M a year at Schwarber? The Mets? They already have a DH in Soto and Vientos did nothing to show he deserves 1B. Red Sox? They are prioritizing Bregman and are getting close to their spending limit. Dodgers? Nope. I have been looking at all the teams and I don’t see anybody going to go to $30M. It certainly seems like his agent is trying to strum up suitors. This is why we didn’t sign him last off-season and Dombrowski was perfectly fine letting him play 2025 and we go from there.

          I look at JT getting 3/$36M as 2/$30M with an extra year and $6M. Would that make you feel better? 2/$30M with a team option for a third year at $10M with a $6M buyout? I’m just looking at what could be realistic with an eye towards keeping the luxury tax down.

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          1. I’d be shocked if the AAV for Schwarber is $22m – which is essentially the same AAV as his last contract accounting for inflation. It could be something like 4 years and $120 with a $30 m AAV. Overall, unless somebody offers him a silly 6 year deal, I think the AAV is likely to be at least $27m and probably closer to $30m plus or minus. I also wonder why it surprises you that someone wants to pay a lot for a guy who hit 56 homers and had a 150 OPS+ on a medium term deal? He’s going to get paid a tidy sum.

             As for JT, no, a 3 year contract doesn’t make me feel better and no, it’s not like paying him $6 m for the last year because, for the Phillies, it’s all about the luxury tax and the salary you proposed is for a $12m AAV for a year when he’s projected to be not very productive. I grudgingly expect them to have to sign him for a few years (they’ve left themselves few options), but when he’s gone, I’d like him to be off the books. But, in terms of what the Phillies will actually do, I think, if they do sign him, the contract you proposed is going to look a lot like what they agree to with him, except I think it will be MORE money. DD specializes in these type of crappy contracts – it’s, by far, my biggest criticism of him.

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54. imagine Schwarber & Soto in the same outfield… the Mets can’t be for real!

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55. If I counted right the Phillies have 32 on 40 man roster, leaves 8 open spots. I expect an active week for them. There are already some teams with full rosters and are cutting players. Plus if they trade away any player that spot would be filled in the process.

    Needs:

    Very good right handed hitter (likely @ 3B, OF, or DH)

    Catcher

    2 OF

    very good right handed relief pitcher

    depth for both RP & SP

    And replace anyone who is traded away

    Note* I could foresee a rule 5 pick here – likely as RP

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56. Yesterday on MLB Network Nick Castellanos said he is open to learning to play first base, if “a team or somebody needs me to do that.” It suggests teams have reached out about his willingness to play different positions.

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    1. What could possibly go wrong with having the guy who can’t stay focused in the field playing an entirely new position that is involved in 70% of plays?

       But hey, if another team wants to answer that question I am more than happy to oblige.

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       1. Maybe it will be the only way to move him, along with eating a sizable portion of his $20M owed.

          Two pitchers I think t Phillies should look at next week in the Rule 5….RHP from the Cubs Grant Kipp and local guy from the Pirates amd bishop Eustace big LHP Anthony Solometo…..Solometo will need to have his shoulder get healthy, but you never know how he can turn out.

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    2. Maybe if I were Castellanos and got the idea that teams were now thinking of me as a DH only I would say what he said. The shame of it from a Phils’ standpoint is that, in a weak market for right handed hitting outfielders, my thought is that no one projects Castellanos as an outfielder any longer. The Phils will have to give him away.

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       1. Perhaps if they ate 50% of his $20M, they may , at the least, get a $500K credit line return on international money from another team.

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57. Will Jim be at winter meetings?

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58. How in the world did the Nats only have to give up a middle reliever for Harry Ford? I get that Ferrer is under team control for a while, but there are at least 10 relievers in the FA market better than him. Disheartening that the Phillies couldn’t find a way to get a deal done with the LHRP they have.

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    1. Ford was the guy I was hoping the Phillies could get…..wonder what happens to Kiebert Ruiz now!

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       1. This was a legit trade the Phils could have topped and brought in Ford. I do like JT a bit better right now for averag-ish offense but even more importantly what he brings to defense, running game, and brains.

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          1. Bob D…..a young lefty that throws 97/99 and is under controlled for years to come….Dipoto knows what he will bring to their bullpen.. Mariners wanted pitching…youth, talented lefty and inexpensive contract…..not sure the Phillies had all those traits available in a trade with them.

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    2. Ferrer is a bit more than a middle reliever who hasn’t hit arbitration yet but it’s an odd move.

       guessing the M’s are convinced Ford is a long-term option behind the plate. His defense is lacking.

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       1. is *not* a solution

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59. Reading a report, phillies looking to get Sandy Alcantra from Marlins I take him

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    1. marlins are idiots to trade with. Might as well try to win another one.

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       1. Yeah, sometimes. The Phillies picked their pockets entirely with the Caba trade. Yes, we don’t know what Caba will become, it’s possible the trade backfires, but most likely, that trade for Luzardo was a massive win for the Phillies.

          So if the price for Alcantra is reasonable, I’m down with that. Because his AAV is around $11 M and he had a bad year last year, the cost is probably only a couple of 10-20 prospects (Rincones and Saltiban? Something like that). I do that trade in a heartbeat – you might even try him in the bullpen. Great buy low opportunity, with much more potential upside than downside.

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          1. And they didn’t do so well with their trades of Yelich, Realmuto, Stanton, and Ozuna either.

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60. Question regarding Schwarber. Everyone keeps praising his leadership and his “Great Clubhouse Guy” mantra as the biggest reasons we need to pay him whatever it takes. While I don’t doubt that he brings all that to the table but where has that gotten us the last 4 years ? Do you think that’s overrated ? I would like him back but the Phillies need to take emotion out of it and be smart and not give him 4 or 5 years. 

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    1. The Phillies are probably looking at the value of all alternative lineups with different players currently available. They should be basing what they offer Schwarber off of a comparison of his value to the value that other combinations of players could bring to the Phillies. I am sure these massive contracts being suggested for Schwarber are coming from Schwarber’s agent and his hype guys. The Phillies should be looking to make the best team for all of the phuture and not trying to destroy their next five years just to pay Schwarber for his expected production next year. Schwarber has big games. He can win single games. He goes cold sometimes. He is left handed. The Phillies have too many left-handed hitters. He does not play the field and clogs up the DH spot. He kind of makes the Phillies team more one-dimensional and streaky. His upside is that he can win multiple single games by having big games with his home runs. I actually think the Phillies can put together better lineups for all of the phuture by using the Schwarber money for other players than by using it for Schwarber. I hope the Phillies have it all professionally mapped out in a diagram with actual dollar amounts for each player that would be a benefit for the team in the long run. I hope nobody in the organization with decision-making ability listens to the dollar amounts listed in media reports.

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       1.  ‘I hope the Phillies have it all professionally mapped out in a diagram…… ‘, yes they do, a Venn diagram.

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       2. I’ve been echoing something similar throughout this year. The FO has to at least be thinking this. Here is how I would frame it up:

          Do you think Schwarber is going to hit more than 56hrs in a season? If so, for how many years? His season i think came as a shock to everyone, and left them exposed. I bet they were thinking he was a max 40-45hrs player

          Essentially, what you are really taking about is a 20 hrs differential to replace. I think they can reasonably find a player who can hit 35 hrs. For example. Bellinger, plus has much better Defense (not a DH). You can argue Tucker as well. Alonso, Ozuna.

          So.. will the team be less streaky? Probably. Add Marte via trade, sign Bellinger, and bring back Bader & Realmuto. Your Delta should boost with a better season from Kemp, Crawford, and eventually Miller.

          It’s an argument for sure. I think the team has more flexibility when the DH can be a rotating spot.

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          1. Of course it’s not just hrs, Schwarber is a red light player as they say. At this point, i feel like Schwarber should be the capstone piece … the way Turner was supposed to be after the surprising 22 run. Now, the lineup needs lengthen imho. It’s hard to do when subtracting Schwarber, but it’s still doable.

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       3. The “massive contracts” suggested for Schwarber are coming from baseball people. MLBTR suggests contract years and dollars EVERY year for the top 50 or so free agents. They are usually pretty accurate with the algorithm they employ. They are among those suggesting 5/$135M for Schwarber. That’s $27M AAV.

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          1. Agree…….MLBTR usually are right around the mark. The Phillies should be able to do a Schwarber AAV at $27M /$28M…….what I worry about, when it comes to Dave D negotiations, is the length. For all we know he could go 6 years.

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61. I’m going to close this in about an hour. New discussion at

    Winter Meetings Week | Phuture Phillies

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Comments are closed.