211 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion (11/6/2025)”

1. Just using rough math the difference between season ending payroll and the $178 million now is $126 million.

   That’s a heavy lift of an offseason for JM DD and company…

   Spend wisely grasshopper!

   6 more years of BH and 8 more of Turner

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   1. I have documented the Phillies expenses in the last two articles I posted. Your $178M is both misleading and wrong. It covers just 9 players’ contracts and ignores the sunk costs that they have EVERY year. It also doesn’t take into consideration the arb and pre-arb players on the roster. The Phillies are already projected to be over the first CBT threshold of $244M and still have active roster spots to fill. To claim that that the Phillies have $126M available to reach last year’s salary expense creates unreasonable expectations by anyone who believes such a statement.

      Your “rough math” statement would be more accurate if you wrote that the Phillies have under $100M left to reach last season’s ending salary (if your implied $304M is accurate which I believe it is not) to fill 17 active roster spots with free agents, arbitration players, and pre-arbitration players.

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      1. Sorry Jim not sure why I had a figure of $304 million in my head. Perhaps its more dire than I thought for those fellas.

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         1. I went through it based off Jim’s numbers, it’s a little disappointing. There is not a lot of money to address needs. The biggest pain point is not winning it when Ranger was pretty cheap & effective.

            Will see what they do, but Schwarber coming in at a projected 30mil kills the budget unless they are willing to the top tier CBT limit… even then… its not going to feel enough which is kind of crazy.

            What if the Phillies sign this 3B/1B from Japan? JM has been saying it’s a goal to bring in a Japan star…. So maybe.. Let Schwarber walk? Sign Bader & Crease? I bet people will be upset but there isn’t enough money to make significant changes unless they blow by the thresholds.

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      2. If the projection is around $244M and the expectation is that the Phillies won’t be going over $300M, that means the Phillies have around ~$40M-45M to play with. That’s not a lot.

         Cots is projecting Alec Bohm to have an arbitration number of $10.6M Are we signing up for that?

         Casty and Walker are adding up to $38M. If DD pulls out a miracle, maybe he can save $10M?

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         1. $244M is the first CBT threshold. The projection is around $251.7 with openings in the rotation (depending on the readiness of Wheeler and Painter), bullpen, catcher, outfield, and DH.

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2. MLB Factoid:

   In MLB, infielders get injured more than outfielders, particularly with lower extremity injuries, while outfielders have more injuries related to the shoulder and ankle. Both positions experience more game-related injuries than pitchers, but pitchers have a higher rate of non-game-related injuries. 

   Infielders

   Higher overall injury rate: A 2020 study from PubMed found that infielders experienced injuries at a 1.6 times greater rate than any other position group, particularly ankle and lower leg injuries.

   Most common injuries: The most frequent injuries for infielders are elbow, lower back, and knee injuries.

   More injuries overall: Infielders also have a higher number of shoulder and head/neck injuries compared to outfielders. 

   Outfielders

   Lower overall injury rate: Outfielders have a lower injury rate compared to infielders, with injuries being less frequent in all body regions.

   Most common injuries: The most common injuries for outfielders are shoulder, ankle, and hand injuries.

   Lower extremity injuries: Outfielders are less likely to sustain lower extremity injuries than infielders. 

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3. The Phillies have reportedly signed Bryan De La Cruz to a minor league deal with an invite to ST.

   Note that Weston Wilson has no more options left.

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4. Phillies Show today has Josh Norris from Baseball America for his takes on our prospects.

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   1. Miller is the new BA #1

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5. Dave Dombrowski on Rincones…….”I really like Gabriel Rincones, who’s got a lot of pop in his bat and really hits right-handed pitching even better.”

   Wonder if Marsh could be moving on and Rincones will be replacing him in the OF…perhaps in a platoon with Kemp.

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   1. I’m surprised he didn’t just come out and say, “He’s a real angel”!😇

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   2. Norris from BA was relatively high on Rincones as part of a platoon. The power is real, but he just can’t hit LH pitching. He also says Crawford’s metrics in CF are terrible, though he allowed that the Phillies have been forcing him to play unusually shallow. He’s also very concerned about the ground-ball frequency.

      The real eye-opener for me was his comments on Nori’s potential. He’s definitely a centerfielder, and the bat might play, especially if he doesn’t try to hit the ball over the fence. That comes on the heels of the insane speed he showed this week on his inside-the-part HR in Arizona. You can see it on the Phillies’ web site.

      Last, he explained Painter’s struggles this year as a fatigue-induced drop in his arm slot. He’s EXTREMELY high on Painter, so long as his recovery continues.

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      1. Rincones not being able tohit lefties is not that mush dissimilar to Marsh’s struggles vs lefties……Rincones is also about $5M cheaper against the threshold.

         That is good news and good vibes on Nori. Being in Reading this season will be interesting.

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6. All the transactions I reported above have been posting all day today. The MLB interns are finally caught up.

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7. For those that want to play musical chairs with the roster:

   Strahm – 7.7, Sosa 7.5, Marsh 5.5, Stott 5.5, Walker 18, Casty 20, Duran 8, Luzardo 12.

   These are the salaries that think have value, could be moved. Duran is a super long shot, but it’s on there for your crazy scenarios.

   I can see the Phillies trying to trade Strahm to bring in a different BP arm. I can See either Sosa or Bohm getting moved, as you really only need 1 of them. I can see Stott & Marsh both being moved, with Marsh more likely. Donovan in place of Stott could be someothing to lookout for. Walker I hope goes & they don’t hang onto for insurance. Hopefully the minors can provide the safety net there. Casty is as good as gone imo. Luzardo.. could be gone for a piece, and then reuse that money towards FA… say like Cease/King/ maybe even Framer or Ranger. Will see. It’s “Dreaming” season.

   For what its worth 2027 has 64.6 million coming off the books, which would drop if they traded Walker & Casty, while eating some money

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   1. Why move Sosa……..he is one of those ‘glue’ guys people have commented on…..Phil’s version of Kiki Hernandez.

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      1. Agreed, but ultimately to create payroll space + not to run it back. Of the players listed, one of Bohm or Sosa is likely to go. I also think Trading Casty & Marsh could make room for Bader. Not sure he wants to return though. Early thoughts so far.

         it’s out there, but maybe it makes sense to bring in the 3B Japanese star? I’d do that could make both Sosa & Bohm expendable, bring in Donovan for 2B, and then turn Stott into the super utility player? Throwing it out there as a way to shake it up.

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      2. can’t imagine why we would move Sosa. Versatile player, good soldier, not that expensive makes no sense to me…….

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8. On the question of who will be Thompson’s bench coach ? Don’t look now but Don Mattingly asked for his walking papers from the Blue Jays and they were granted. Now he and the Phillies Mgr worked together on the Yankees for years – might we see Mr. Mattingly installed as the new Bench Coach ? I would say that is a strong likelihood. I would imagine DD would rubber stamp that one. Just sayin’—- like son, like father, or is it the other way around ?

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9. I am amazed, With all the bad contracts for guys who don’t produce, Nola, Casty, walker, We want to move sosa? Why? The winter rumors are funny.

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   1. to clarify I was more mentioning the following contracts, as they are the ones that are reasonably tradeable. Im assuming No one will go for the LT large money contracts. Those are reserved for Big market teams. I like Sosa, would be willing to move him to an everyday player … see if he can sink or swim before Aidan Miller is promoted. Now, I can also see him being traded .. if say they needed to make room for Bregman after resigning Schwarber. It’s 17mil in Bohm & Sosa you really don’t need if you’ve got Bregman. Thats just one scenario.

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10. I rather keep Sosa and move Stott. If Sosa contract is around 5 million

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11. MLB rocked with a betting/ fix scandal….Cleveland’s Clase and Ortiz. Do they really need the money!

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    1. sounds like they were doing it to help family and friends make money rather than trying to make themselves money.

       much too easy to fix outcomes with all the prop bets.

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       1. Oh that’s great.There we’re helping people fix games, for friends. That makes it okay. Play ball

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          1. Who said anything about it being okay? If proven true their careers should be over along with whatever jail time they get for the criminal charges.

             betting is infiltrating all sports and the leagues are joining in.

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             1. The odds today on FanDuel that they get permanent suspensions. ……-135

                The over and under…..1 year.

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          2. rocco…their reasoning for the family and friends plan…..”hey….what is a pitch in the dirt on an 0-2 count when the team is leading by 5 runs and there are two outs in the inning!”

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12. Not being a sports better, or much of a better of any kind it’s hard for me to understand the lure of it. That being said the advent of all “prop” bets in all sports seems to make it impossible to police. Hard for one player to “throw” a game completely, pretty easy to make a few bad pitches or a few swings and misses, or take a few “ill advised” shots on goal, or air mail a few three point shots. The leagues are certainly complicit in encouraging all the action. With the huge amounts of money involved it’s hard to see an end to the current situation. As someone who has loved watching all sports for a lifetime it’s discouraging to think that what we’re now seeing may not be everyone’s best effort…….of course I’m old, I go back to the day when most college athletes actually went to classes. Players involved should be banned for life, but I’m afraid this is the tip of the iceberg.

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    1. Look what happened to boxing decades ago. The sport took a long rime to get back cred.

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    2. Dave47. I made my first bet on football at 11, with a bookie, my dad used to cut his card game, in my case gambling is more about the high then the money. The reason I believe they cheat is under the table money, it’s like football and basketball players. Giving there guys money to put on street for drug deals. Untax return you have to realize 50 percent of there salary is taxes. And they still in most cases make a ton. But it’s greed

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       1. Rocco, I agree, total greed. What really drives me insane is any sports figure making 10-20 million a year who announces that they need to test that market for”the sake of my family….”

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          1. It’s not just greed, they are fraudsters and as stupid as they come. Clase is going to lose $60-80 million, his profession, his reputation and perhaps his personal freedom for a long time (i.e. jail) to do what? Pick up $100k from fixed prop bets? What a degenerate idiot!

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             1. I will say this, however. It is not surprising that this is happening. Professional sports have encouraged the growth and expansion of public betting and it has become entwined with these sports. This is a consequence of those decisions which bring in millions of advertising revenue for teams and leagues. Yes, the players and other people who fix events are ultimately to blame, but the temptations there are now greater than ever.

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13. Ok here’s a total shot in the dark here for off-season moves.

    Trade Aroon Escobar and Kerkering to Tampa for Yandy Diaz and Chandler Simpson.

    Trade Bryson Stott to the Angels for Taylor Ward.

    Re-sign JT for $15M per.

    Sign Devin Williams for 1/$12M.

    Payroll would be $301M and 2027 luxury tax payroll would be $180M.

    Turner-Simpson-Yandy-Harper-Ward-Bohm-Realmuto-Sosa-Crawford.

    I see a lineup with a lot of speed and a lot of contact. Maybe that could work this time around?

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    1. No thanks. Not a fan of these moves individually or in the aggregate.

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    2. Chandler Simpson and Justin Crawford are identical profiles.

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       1. Yeah after looking into Simpson more, I was disappointed that he wasn’t a legit CF.

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14. Dave47 – About college players going to classes: Read somewhere that Deion Sanders’ son said that all the time he was at Colorado, he never stepped into a classroom one time. Claimed he did all his classes online.

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    1. I remember the days of the Blue Book exams, ….,,,long gone.

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       1. No, blue books have come roaring back, thanks to AI. I never abandoned them, and college faculty in general are so frustrated with dealing with AI-generated work done outside the classroom that exams are experiencing a renaissance.

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          1. Well I’ll be, that is something. I guess before you know it…people under 40 will be using cash again.

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             1. I’m a little short ……. do you have any pickles and pennies? I’m not that far from forty.🤭

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                1. nickels, nickels …

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15. Andrew – I believe Taylor Ward will be making $10M this year in his last year of arbitration. FA in 2027. And I think D. Williams has seen his better days. If you can get him for $7M, that might work.

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16. Well… I’m damn thankful that the Phillies didn’t trade for Clause

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17. ty to all that served.

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18. I saw this tweet about the best tools in the system

    https://x.com/PhilsTailgate/status/1987985375793479809

    and this one jumped out at me…”Best Slider: Gabe Craig.”

    So I looked him up. I had forgotten that he was our 5th round pick last year. He had 51 strikeouts and only 3 walks in 32 IP as a Junior at Baylor. He threw only 3 IP after being drafted but had 5 Ks at Clearwater. His fastball hits 97 but he has a 70 grade slider.

    This is definitely a guy whom we could see in our pen in 2026. Could easily be a fast riser. Great command and a 70 grade slider paired with a 97mph heater. A name to watch!

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19. I saw this tweet about the best tools in the system

    https://x.com/PhilsTailgate/status/1987985375793479809

    and this one jumped out at me…”Best Slider: Gabe Craig.”

    So I looked him up. I had forgotten that he was our 5th round pick last year. He had 51 strikeouts and only 3 walks in 32 IP as a Junior at Baylor. He threw only 3 IP after being drafted but had 5 Ks at Clearwater. His fastball hits 97 but he has a 70 grade slider.

    This is definitely a guy whom we could see in our pen in 2026. Could easily be a fast riser. Great command and a 70 grade slider paired with a 97mph heater. A name to watch!

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    1. Wonder why he lasted to 5th round?

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       1. Because he is definitely a reliever.

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          1. ok . I think in today’s game. We should have a premium on relief pitchers. Starters only go 6-7 innongs

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             1. His comp is Kerkering, who was also a 5th rounder. Might not be a back end reliever. More like a 7th/ 8th guy. Very valuable, but not worth a top 4 round pick. 5th round is pretty good value.

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                1. we need all the value youth we can get in the coming few years while the window is closing.. getting cold out there

                   nobody else concerned our franchise player is entwined in battle with mlb to the point of whats been going down.. surely this will go well… papelbon ready for bench coach?

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                2. For some inexplicable reason…Phillies’ 5th round selections seem to do well.

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       2. DeGrom was a 9th round pick. Skubal 9th Rnd, Strider 4th Rnd. Pitching gems can be found after the first couple rounds….

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          1. Brewers also find pitching gems below the first or second rounds…Burnes and Woodruff for two.

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20. Nori on the adjustments he made to achieve better results: https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/phillies-top-prospect-reveals-small-changes-that-turned-his-first-pro-season-around/ar-AA1Qe7Ai?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=01ad682a25cb4191ba5387e9c074f6e5&ei=31

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    1. Hard to believe Nori circled the bases in less than 15 seconds. I wonder what Crawford’s time would be.

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       1. Did you see the exit velocity on that ball?

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    2. Good share. So fascinating to me when a player who has struggled makes a minor change and has success. Baseball has such a small margin of error. The difference between a line drive and a pop up is a quarter of an inch. Hopefully he maintains success. We need prospects.

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21. Romus you remember today? Your unit was fighting battle of bulge. Your a hero

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    1. rocco……a salute out to the ‘greatest generation’.

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22. Two young Latin catchers are hi-lite today in Steve Potter’s article….Anderson Araujo and Cesar Mujica. They could be the next on the rise from the Caribbean region. Both seem to be catchers to watch. If you get a chance have a read.

    Anderson Araujo Minor Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

    Cesar Mujica Minor Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

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    1. You don’t find too many 6’2″ catchers. Doesn’t appear to me Cesar can hit based on those numbers but Anderson’s stats show he has an idea at the plate.

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23. Is it a forgone conclusion that Don Mattingly ends up the bench coach?

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    1. Dmar210, I think Romus, has his people checking that out

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    2. Donnie Baseball reportedly is weighing how much travel he is interested in doing. Nothing should surprise us.

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       1. So, basically, his son will be his boss, even if it’s an indirect boss . . . hmmmmm.

          If they really think Preston Mattingly is the future leader of this team, I proceed carefully before I hire Don to be the bench coach. If he ends up getting replaced it could sour the Preston relationship. For real. I’ve seen this scenario play out in other circumstances and when you fire one family member, the other family members typically do not take it well, to put it mildly.

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          1. Well he is going to be 65 next year…..he may not be looking at it for a long term commitment, but then again most MLB management on the field jobs are not long term anyways. He may just be around until Dave steps aside or Rob Thomson is not extended after next season.

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24. Wonder if Dodgers trade for skenes or just wait for free agency in couple of years

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    1. Hah…already saw today, where he mentioned the Yankees in a conversation.

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       1. Kershaw retires, tigers will trade with dodgers. They can’t pay him. Then Paul, what a rotation

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    2. Nobody has enough to trade for Paul Skenes, including the Dodgers. Skenes is not going anywhere.

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       1. really ? The pirates can’t sign him

          They will take best bid after next yr. And that will be the dodgers. It’s very possible Dodgers will win almost every yr.

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          1. Well, there are few other teams that could, but the Dodgers are always at the top of the list.

             As for the Dodgers winning almost every year, I’m going out on a limb and saying it will not happen because the other owners won’t let it happen. Exactly how that will occur is subject to debate but the revenue inequality in baseball is so extreme that it’s horrible for the game. Some teams like the Pirates are so outmatched and unable to compete they might as well be relegated like a Premier League soccer team. That’s soooo bad for the game. They are going to have to fix this without screwing the players too badly – I think MLB is in for some very major financial changes in the next 5-7 years. We shall see.

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          2. rocco…Ben Cherington would need a king’s ransom in return if he ever intended to move Skenes,…….for example from an AL team also…..there is the Tigers, and for  their top four prospects, Bonner’s McGonigle, Max Clark, Rainer and Briceno. But my guess it would be the Yankees or Sox putting in their bid.

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          3. Paul Skenes is under control for 4 more years. I think the price would be 1 young controllable player and 3 top 100 prospects to start, with one of those prospects in the top 25.

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             1. Epic fail by the Pirates to both lose a year of Skene’s service time and not get the extra draft pick (due to his ROY award). Worst of both worlds? Welcome to Pirate land! How the mighty have fallen.

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                1. Forgot to mention that even though every team would be willing to pay it, Paul Skenes might set the record for arbitration money for a pitcher when his time comes.

                   In 2010, Tim Lincecum asked for $13M coming off consecutive Cy Young awards.

                   Another crazy year for Skenes in 2026 and I wouldn’t be surprised if he asks for $18-20M for 2027.

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                2. Since Skenes throws in triple-digits….the likelihood of UCL tearing becomes more a reality every time he goes out there. Though he is a large fellow, the UC ligament probably is bigger and stronger, but you just never know when the tear can occur. Pirates would be wise to trade him after 2026 and get as much as they can.

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       2. Glad I read up so I didn’t repeat this thought…

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          1. Weird this reply didn’t go to Guru who states nobody has enough to trade for Skenes…

             But it is thought provoking on a number of levels

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       3. Glad I read up so I didn’t repeat this thought…

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25. Romys they can’t pay him. What choice do they have? Heard tigers made a very low ball offer too

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26. Bohm again out there….from Jon Morosi less than month now from the winter meetings.

    “If the Phillies were to move Bohm, in my judgment, it would have to be because they think there’s a chance of getting a Bregman or they’re one of the teams potentially that could look at a Bo Bichette at a spot that’s not shortstop,” Morosi said. “There’s different ways they could augment their club, but you would have to have a clear upgrade on Bohm if you’re gonna go ahead and make that trade.”

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    1. -Is Crawford the Phils’ 2026 center fielder?
       -Or a corner outfielder?
       -Is Kemp a corner outfielder, possibly in a platoon with Marsh?
       -Is 3B the only IF position in play for a change?
       –Is Marchan worth consideration as more than a back-up?
       -Can the Phils add a big ticket free agent this off-season and still sign Schwarber and Realmuto?
       -Will Castellanos be the first chip to fall?

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27. -Is Crawford the Phils’ 2026 center fielder? – Realistically, for your #6 question to be “yes” and somewhere near a 300m payroll. He basically has to be.
    -Or a corner outfielder?

    -Is Kemp a corner outfielder, possibly in a platoon with Marsh? Yes. I have a feeling the FO is expecting him to have a breakout year. They’ve discussed he was hurt, so im watching this closely.
    

    -Is 3B the only IF position in play for a change? Probably, but this is the question. How much are they really going to shake it up. Donovan at 2B from STL could be one way to do it, or is Suarez the big FA signing?

    –Is Marchan worth consideration as more than a back-up? No, I see realmuto back for his catching abilities, not hitting.

    -Can the Phils add a big ticket free agent this off-season and still sign Schwarber and Realmuto? Only 1, and it requires removing 2 players from a list i posted earlier (Strahm, Sosa, Stott, Bohm, Luzardo, Marsh) “if”the not going over 304m-ish CBT matters.

    -Will Castellanos be the first chip to fall? –He hast to to be gone. It’s more likely Walker stays imo.

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    1. Some MLB teams lost money in 2025. In a recent Phillies Talk podcast, Ruben Amaro declared emphatically that the Phillies lost money. My I don’t see that supported elsewhere. Maybe ‘break even’ season? AI genie reports that Phillies’ revenues in 2025 were “around $400 million.”

       Making the playoffs is a moneymaker as the salary sunk costs are sunk in almost every instance.

       The Phils don’t seem hamstrung financially in making the moves they want to make so long as low cost players in the pipeline develop to expectation.

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       1. its kind of crazy to think they could lose money…but maybe… the team pulled in 3.3 million in attendance. Unless that ticket sale that could be anywhere from 66mil at $20 a ticket avg to 247mil for a 75 ticket average.

          They receive 100 mil roughly in TV rights. The questions is how much do they make on food & merchandise sales? Plus whatever they got to pay to the bottom feeders like the Pirates.

          then the real kicker is how much they have to pay in taxes. I bet that is what makes them “negative” if so. Anyway you look at it, it’s pretty WILD that the Phillies could lose money but im opens to hearing it. It’s surprise me, but not shock me. Running a business is expensive – utilities, plane rides, hotel stays, all the staff at CBP just to name a few. Sure, a lot of it is not taxable, but it’s still an expense they need to make to get the break even point. Crazy.

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          1. Uh, you really don’t lose money on taxes (for the most party), unless you are making a profit. If they aren’t making a profit, the tax issue generally wouldn’t be a big deal. And I am sure they have many other tax write-offs and credits/depreciation that reduces any tax burden they might have.

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       2. Perhaps the narrative for 2026 is that a majority of MLB teams are losing money…….seems logical assumption to make prior to a lock-out.

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          1. Baseball has massive financial inequity problems among its owners. It’s a problem that must be fixed for the league to be healthy. The good news is that there are significant revenues and they have fixed the problems with the games themselves. But when they try to “fix” their problems they will do so in way that will significantly affect players (how could it not?) so I’m expecting some serious overhauling in the next 5-7 years and probably some serious labor issues.

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             1. This time next year the CBA war will begin.

                My advice to the commissioner, avoid the Phillies locker room next summer.

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       3. I’m willing to bet Reuben has no clue what he’s talking about. Between the ticket revenue, stadium concessions, merchandise, TV rights, advertising, etc., I’d be shocked if the Phillies lost money in any year in this century. I’ve never heard of this as a problem with any team in the sport, let alone a big market team like the Phillies.

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          1. I stand corrected: https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterchawaga/2025/11/10/mets-lead-mlb-losses-after-record-setting-season-insider/

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             1. That’s fascinating stuff. So, when the Phillies lose $85 million in a year, we really shouldn’t be complaining to much if they don’t significantly up their payroll. Granted, spending that money and keeping the team relevant helps the franchise maintain or increase its value, so it’s not money down the drain . . . but still.

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                1. Yeah I don’t know… $100M from Comcast, $30M from TBS, how much from ESPN and Fox? You can easily say they have $150M coming in before selling one ticket. How much for all the advertising in the stadium? How much did they make from parking!?!

                   But what I think we all want to know is….. How much do they get from Fanduel and DraftKings sponsoring literally EVERYTHING.

                   MLB is trying to write the narrative before going to war with the players union. If everybody lost money, then a lot of owners will be looking to unload their team. Who want’s to keep losing money?

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             2. Hold on, not so fast…….the figures were released to Bob Nightengale! The timing is all so strange to me.

                And like he said…it was paper money losses. The value and worth of the teams will still ascend.

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                1. The team losses are Hollywood accounting. They’re just setting the stage for negotiations after next season and starting the publicity machine to get fans on their side instead of the players.

                   There are a shockingly small number of owners in sports who are in it for the love of the game/the desire to win. If teams were actually losing money, there would be way more owners selling. The fact that basically no one ever sells a team (what… one team gets sold every 8ish years or so, usually after the death of the original owner and the sale is by their children?) says everything we need to know about their ability to generate profit.

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             3. The Phillies lost $85M but they probably gained that much in the value of the team. That’s why owners are still holding onto their teams. Now if the Pirates lost as much as the Mets this past season, there’s no way that the Pirates gained $300M in value from this past year. I don’t even think the Phillies gained $300M in value, that’s a large number. Just 2 years ago, the Phillies were worth around $2.575B. The Pirates are worth 1.32B.

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                1. Now that I’m beyond the initial shock of seeing those numbers, I’m in agreement that they probably are skewed and not very accurate and are certainly taken a bit of out context. My sense is that most of the big money clubs are doing more than alright in many ways. But baseball really does have a serious, serous problem with the financial inequity among the teams. There’s a whole bevy of teams that just have no chance of getting good and staying good. And you’re seeing this in many ways. It’s not good for baseball. If a casual Pirates fans knows with virtual certainty that his team will never be good for an extended time, why should he or she regularly go to games? I know I wouldn’t.

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                2. Remove the revenue sharing and you could see many small market owners sell.

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                3. According to estimates from ’19, the Marlins received about $70M, while Rays were typically in the $50-$60M range……in 2025, the A’s were set to receive 100% of their revenue-sharing allotment, which was estimated to be around $70M after meeting a spending threshold. And also MLB’s national TV contracts are split evenly among all 30 teams, providing a consistent baseline revenue stream for even the smallest clubs. As of 2022, each team receives a guaranteed share of approximately $60M from national television deals alone.. 

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28. Evan of the NY Fan states the Phillies may be the biggest player in he Kyle Tucker sweepstakes.

    Morosi leans Bregman.

    Waiting to see who predicts Bellinger.

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    1. In the non-cap pro sports — basically baseball in North America — the pundits need to devote more attention to team profitability.

       If the Phils’ book value grew $525 M over the past 2 years, that’s a growth accelerent. $ 85 M in 21025 operating losses is a brake.

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29. From USA Today….. Boras highlighted Suárez’s reputation in October:

    “There’s no doubt that anyone that looks at the playoffs, the last three, four years … that Suarez’s playoff quality is, well, frankly, the Lone Ranger in that category,” he said. “If you’re interested in acquiring a postseason pitcher that has proven himself, I would suggest you don’t want to miss the Suarez postseason soiree.”

    …teams better open up their pocket books.

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30. Looks like Ranger is going to be a dodger

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    1. Kemosabe do heap good job in Philly uniform ……huh?

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       1. Ranger will be shouting out Hi-Oh Silver after he gets his new contract.

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          1. Dodgers will pay him 25 million just to pitch in playoffs. Rest of year he will rest

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31. Thirteen players with QOs:

    Kyle Tucker (Cubs, OF)

    Kyle Schwarber (Phillies, OF/DH)

    Bo Bichette (Blue Jays, SS/2B)

    Framber Valdez (Astros, LHP)

    Dylan Cease (Padres, RHP)

    Ranger Suarez (Phillies, LHP)

    Edwin Diaz (Mets, RHP)

    Zac Gallen (D-backs, RHP)

    Shota Imanaga (Cubs, LHP)

    Michael King (Padres, RHP)

    Trent Grisham (Yankees, OF)

    Gleyber Torres (Tigers, 2B)

    Brandon Woodruff (Brewers, RHP) 

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    1. I wonder if Woodruff accepts or declines his QO…

       He missed all of 2024; Only threw 65 Innings in 25 but looked really good in doing so .912 WHIP over 11 Ks per 9.

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       1. The 65 innings pitched may be all that is needed from a club to offer him a 4/5 year deal…probably somewhere close to the mid-20sM AAV.

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    2. Brandon Woodruff, who is 33, has made 30 starts once in his career, and is coming off TJ surgery, gets a QO and there’s a good chance he’s going to reject it and get a multi-year deal. It’s unreal how the pitching market has morphed and, my goodness, Ranger is going to get paid a lot of money – but it likely won’t be the Phillies signing that contract.

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       1. The starting pitching market is out of whack. You’re giving a crazy amount of money to pitchers into their late 30s (where decline will eventually occur) and they have the added bonus of getting easily injured (like TJ). I think there’s only been 1 pitcher who received big money into their 30s, performed like an elite pitcher AND stayed healthy: Max Scherzer. We all know the many ailments of Jacob deGrom. Gerrit Cole is now recovering from TJ.

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          1. Verlander came close with the Stros….2019 and 2022.

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       2. Will anybody feel comfortable giving Tarik Skubal 9/360?

          I don’t think we feel comfortable with Wheeler’s remaining 2/84.

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          1. I’m more than comfortable with Wheeler’s remaining contract

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          2. Personally I would do it (especially with the team friendly deal Sanchez is on… depending on Luzardo’s contract) but I think a lot of the larger market teams would in the current economic state. That said, we don’t know what the CBA will look like next off season when he becomes a FA so does he get that kind of money? Are there new limits?

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          3. I think if I were running a FO I would be hyper focused on my LU in FA. A starter can only help you win once every 5th day. That’s not to minimize their importance to championships but you’re better off trying to draft them or find them on value deals such as how we were able to land Zach.

             Not to mention how the Tigers found Tarik in the 9th round. Unfortunately his timing didn’t coincide with them having a strong enough group of position players.

             But either is a good gig if you can get it…

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32. Josh Naylor just signed a 5/92.5 deal and it looks decent. He’s not the best defender (he’s better suited to be a DH) but he’s still only 28 and his bat has started to come around as he ages. I think it’s a good move for the Mariners.

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33. Just last year Burnes got 6/$206 from the D-Backs and pitched 64 Innings. If all goes well he may be back on the mound in July.

    Cautionary tales abound perhaps but you always miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.

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    1. Well, yeah, but it’s all about risk tolerance and talent evaluation. I find it interesting Billy Beane’s position (I’m paraphrasing) is that he’d much rather make a bad trade than sign a bad contract (of course, he has a small market team, so consider the context). This is one reason why the Dodgers are very intentional about not giving long term contracts to anyone but superstars. They would much rather overpay a little on a 3-5 year contract for a good player than do what DD does, which is to extend the contract to a ridiculous length and lower the AAV (like the Turner contract). So, for the Dodgers, their good players (T. Hernandez, Muncy, etc. . . ), even really good pitchers (Glasnow, Snell), are generally signed for 3-5 years so they don’t get stuck forever in salary purgatory where they are overpaying a not very good player. They are really smart like that.

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       1. Of course, they Dodgers did do a long term contract with Will Smith, but they got him for way, way under market – a $14 m AAV even though he’s a better catcher than Realmuto (it’s not even close right now). They spend like crazy but they also know what they are doing.

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          1. The Dodgers did with Will Smith what the Phillies did with Trey Turner, signed him to a long-term contract to reduce the AAV.

             Smith will be 31 to start next season and is signed through his age 38 season. You are comparing his production at age 30 with JTR at age 34. Compare JTR’s production at the same age and they are very similar. Will Smith be worth his $$$ in 5 years? They are paying later for his production today.

             You can’t talk about how great the Dodgers do business without recognizing that both their payroll is significantly higher than everyone else and they have a geographic/demographic advantage when it comes to signing players from Japan.

             They pay higher AAV to sign players because they can afford to do so more than everyone else and they also have 4 players on 10+ year contracts so they also do those deals when they need to.

             Just like every other big market team, they miss on big $$$ contracts that they end up eating. They just overload their roster with enough high-priced talent to absorb the dead weight.

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             1. Dodgers are a little more creative with their LTCs for their star players. For example, Ohtani’s is deferred $68M per year from 2034 thru 2043—ten years. So they can absorb many of their 4/5 year high AAV contracts. Plus they are banking on the lux. tax threshold being sky high by then.

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                1. Except they are paying tax on Ohtani’s contract today. The deferred money doesn’t make his AAV $2 million per year. For tax purposes, Ohtani’s contract counts as $46m vs the threshold even though most of the salary is deferred.

                   The deferral of salary only changes the actual total cash value of the deal and saves the Dodgers and especially Ohtani significantly on state taxes.

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             2. Except that isn’t quite true. The Dodgers got Will Smith at a massive discount and signed him to one year less and through his age 38 season. The Phillies paid Turner roughly market value and signed him through his age 40 season. If the Phillies had signed Turner to the 10-year $140 million contract that Smith received, I would have rejoiced.

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                1. They were able to sign Smith to that deal because he hadn’t hit the open market yet. They purchased multiple arbitration seasons at a higher price in exchanges for cheaper AAV.

                   Also, you are always going to pay more in the FA market vs. signing own player early. Phillies did the same thing with Sanchez.

                   Besides, Smith is a catcher and as you’ve stated repeatedly, catchers don’t age will into their mid to late 30s

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                2. If you want a better Turner comparison, the Dodgers signed Mookie Betts for 12 years, which takes him through his age 41 season.

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34. OF Francisco Renteria will get a $4 Million signing bonus when he signs with the Phillies on January 15. The Phillies entire bonus pool for the 2026 signing period is $6,679,200. Renteria is the #3 overall international prospect, according to MLB pipeline.

    https://x.com/PhilsTailgate/status/1990832566501298285?s=20

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    1. And from Japan…… 25-year old Japanese infielder Munetaka Murakami, is being posted as an MLB free agent for the first time, is reportedly getting a lot of interest from the Phillies, who have scouted him.  That is to Nikkan Sports, the Phillies are “keen on him,” along with the Mariners. He slashed .286/.392/.659 last season and has a ton of power — boasting 265 career home runs over eight seasons for the Yakult Swallows.

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       1. I’m always suspect that those numbers translate to the MLB. Besides many are saying he is not an MLB caliber glove at either 3B or even 1B so DH?

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          1. If Murakami signs with the Phillies, it’s going to be as a DH and Schwarber is going elsewhere. Murakami will only be 26 for the 2026 season. He’s almost a full 7 years younger than Schwarber.

             And if the Phillies want to be known as a destination for asian players, it starts with this.

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          2. DMAR…that could be an issue…..but look at it this way…the guy has played over 750 games at third base, he must have some experience there.

             And trust me…….the sources of these negative defensive woes he has….,perhaps are supporting another agenda….have teams wary of going after him. Put up red flags……I am sure if the Dodgers signed him…he would be at third base and miraculously became a decent fielder.

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    2. Renteria has exactly the type of profile you would want – above average in every phase and plus in power and hit tool. It’s time we get a grade A LA prospect and the team needs desperately a young, righty power hitter. On the surface, I love this signing.

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    3. Cross your fingers and hope he does not end up like Jhailyn Ortiz from the 2015 class…also for $4M or so..

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35. Josh Naylor 5/$92.5 pretty good deal for the Ms…

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    1. That is an excellent deal. I think eventually he’ll have to move to DH from 1B, but he’s still only 28 and his bat is really starting to come around as he ages.

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       1. It shows also what a bad contract the Castellanos contract turned out to be.

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          1. I’m probably in the minority on Casty’s deal. At the time we signed him he was coming off an age 29 season where he slashed 309/362/939 OPS

             He totally crapped the bed with us the next 4 seasons

             Speaking for myself I don’t fault the FO for that. I commend them actually for going for it.

             Where I would find fault is that they allow it to preclude them from a pivot.

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36. In December 2024, the Mets gave 32 year old Frankie Montas a 2/34 deal. The Mets just DFAd Montas (eating $17M) because he won’t be able to pitch in 2026 due to elbow issues.

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37. A couple of news items:

    Philly Voice: “Japanese infielder Munetaka Murakami, who is 25 and being posted as an MLB free agent for the first time, is reportedly getting a lot of interest from the Phillies, who have scouted him.”

    The Inquirer has a feature on Dante Nori, whose season turned around when he made an adjustment in his swing and started using a torpedo bat. I’m starting to think that if the front office believes in him Crawford is definitely trade bait.

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    1. Does. or has Crawford to date, participated in any off-season Phillies sanctioned work-outs at the Complex…or even including the AFL?

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       1. Crawford was given the offseason off other than the work he performs on his own or at a facility near home. He spent almost all of 2024 playing or practicing baseball starting with the high-performance camp in January 2024 and a pre-camp invite for certain minor leaguers, then spring training, regular season, time with the national team, back for the same team stuff in January 2025 through ST and the regular season. That’s 21 months without a break. He had nothing to prove in the AFL this year. The only team sponsored workout was the high-performance camp that ends tomorrow (70 players including rehabbers). And, contractually, the team cannot run team-sponsored events between the week before Thanksgiving and sometime after the new year. There is no reason to think the team has soured on him or that they are looking to trade him. He also has nothing to prove in AAA. He WILL be in the Phillies’ starting outfield to start 2026. Probably CF unless Rojas is not traded and cracks the opening day lineup, two big ifs. When the time comes that Nori is ready to jump to the majors, Crawford will likely move to a corner. But that’s a year or two away, if ever. You don’t trade a Crawford now hoping a Nori or any other prospect is ready in a year or two.

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          1. Thanks for that info. Dave Dombrowski did say a few weeks ago he is looking for Crawford to be in the OF next season.

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    2. As good as Nori has been, Crawford has been better at every stop and still only 22 for the 2026 season. Nori is at least a year behind and there’s no reason why Nori and Crawford can’t be part of the same OF, especially if either of them starts slugging. They are both positive defensive players in the OF which the Phillies sorely need.

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       1. Yes.

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38. Shocked that Woodruff accepted the QO. He must really like it in Milwaukee because I think he could have easily gotten a 3/60 deal.

    The rest of the players that accepted the QO, I can see why. They each have their warts and getting $22M for 1 year, it’s a big number.

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    1. I’m not shocked. For a pitcher like Woodruff, declining the offer could have significantly lowered the price a team would pay, knowing they will be surrendering the pick and know that Woodruff has a horrible injury history and a short recent track record of success. Well played by the Brewers.

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    2. I’m a little surprised but he can use 2026 to establish he’s healthy and can’t be QO’d again next year so will have chance at bigger deal.

       bit of a gamble on his part to stay healthy.

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    3. I was kind of hoping Woodruff would test the market and maybe we could take a run at him.

       Can’t let deals of the past haunt you from trying again.

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39. The Phillies have selected the contracts of right-handed pitchers Alex McFarlane and Andrew Painter and outfielder Gabriel Rincones Jr. to the 40-man roster.

    https://x.com/Phillies/status/1990920967195910528?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1990920967195910528%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

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40. With the addition of Rincones on the 40, and the way Dave D talked about him a few weeks ago, would not shock me if he decides to move Marsh in a trade. Rincones is more than capable of manning a corner OF position. Though, his bat is susceptible to left handed pitching, but then again so was Marsh’s. But Rincones does have some major pop in his bat when he connects. Rincones turns 25 in spring training so may be it is his time.

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    1. I am very very confused. Maybe it’s old age. But in what universe do you see Rincones being a big league hitter? Is this bizarro world? The guy is terrible.

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       1. Rocco, are you confusing the outfielder Gabriel Rincones with the infielder Bryan Rincon who was clearly overmatched in the AFL this fall?

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          1. Thanks Jim for the clarification.

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             1. I just remember how much Rocco questioned Bryan Rincon based on his poor performance at the plate.

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    2. Brandon Marsh may have his warts but he’s generated 8.9 WAR in a Phillies uniform. Expecting Rincones (who is not an elite prospect) to even replicate that production is asking a lot. Right now, I don’t believe the Phillies will trade Marsh. Rincones will have to fight for a job in ST.

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       1. Yeah, I think perhaps what was said about Rincones might be a confidence booster / build up some trade value. Who knows the real reason behind why things are said.

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    3. The way everything said by a GM gets dissected it could be a ploy to build his value. Not that it would work as too many FO’s have access to the same information.

       By now the league knows what both Marsh and Rincones are as players.

       Rincones as a platoon half in a corner could be something like a 20-25 HR guy with a low average decent enough walk rate guy. If you don’t find a way to move Castellanos maybe that’s your play…

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       1. I’ve wondered if we’re stuck with Castellanos, would that be the worst thing? Is he clubhouse cancer? We don’t know to what extent his issue with Thomson is, but it seems pretty bad. I can only imagine he will become a real jerk if he’s only starting 40% of the time and constantly being replaced late in the game.

          My gut says that even if we can’t find a partner, we just release him. But I sure do hope whoever takes his spot gives us something.

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          1. Casty’s best value is in a platoon which he will no way agree to for 2026. He was ornery for half a season. Could you imagine how he would be for a full season? He’s getting DFAd, it’s only a matter of when.

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          2. What he did with Kerkering after that loss tells me he is probably good with his teammates maybe not so much with management LOL.

             Surely he is a character/enigma but even after most of that drama he played hard.

             For that I think he’s owed some dignity of not flat out releasing him.

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             1. I would be happy if we got some International slot money for him, but I can’t see a team even wanting to give that up for him.

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                1. Could be done……pick up half his ’26 salary, in return for $500K or $750K of international funny money.

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             2. Think Casty is generally liked by teammates and seems to get along well in the clubhouse.

                His problem appears to be he’s stubborn to a fault and doesn’t sugarcoat his opinions to the media or apparently to the manager.

                As noted, his issue is going to be an unwillingness to accept a platoon role and how that festers for a season. Would be shocked if he’s on the roster by April.

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                1. Believe it or not, Castellanos is an important piece in the clubhouse. He mentored Rojas when he was a rookie. He took in mid-season acquisitions/promotions as roommates like Wilson and I think Marsh. (And don’t discount the Kerkering thing at the end of the series). You need more than one “personality” in a clubhouse. You need at least a couple veterans to be welcoming to new and younger players. This is not in a Harper/Realmuto wheelhouse. This isn’t a knock on them. It’s just not in their DNA. Utley was similar and luckily had Jimmy and Ryan to balance out his quiet persona. I worry about this clubhouse in a post-Schwarber and even post Castellanos era.

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41. I’m stunned that the Orioles traded Grayson Rodriguez (under control for 4 more years) for 1 year of Taylor Ward. Rodriguez has been crazy injured the last 2 years but he’s very talented and he’s not making much money. The Orioles don’t want to pay Rodriguez pre-arbitration money and take up a roster spot? Are they really certain that Rodriguez won’t be able to recapture his top prospect form?

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    1. I see it as two idiot teams made a trade with each other. Angels just might have happened to win this one.

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       1. LOL I don’t think much of Perry Minasian as a GM but Mike Elias is pretty good. He may just have too many ownership constraints.

          I’ve also seen that Rodriguez is a bit of a head case.

          Not sure it was money because Ward is slated to get around $10 Million for his last year of Arb.

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          1. You can’t know(only sports radio shock jocks really know) what early off-season moves are made to set up what moves happen next.

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             1. With the recent adds, the Phils are at 33 players on their 40 man roster. That includes dubious prospects like Michael Mercado Nolan Hoffman and Alan Rangel.

                I know they’re not at the deadline for finalizing the roster but I’m surprised Griff McGarry and Felix Reyes haven’t been added. In the right kind of light, you could picture either breaking through and playing some sort of role.

                Can’t imagine what the Phils are holding open so many roster spots for. 4-5 free agents including re-signings? beyond that, t it’s the bad teams that pick up the crumbs that fall off of other teams’ plates.

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                1. Flea, I’ll give it a whirl.

                   The reason the Phillies had 10 roster spots open was because 10 guys on the 40-man roster exercised their right to free agency. The Phillies returned 2 players from the 60-day Injury List (Wheeler and Robert) and still managed to have 10 openings. They protected 3 players leaving 7 open slots. They were going to protect a fourth, but he is likely going to be traded. Another prospect who is garnering interest is also likely to be packaged in another trade. No need to protect guys you are going to trade.

                   Among the 7 remaining spots, the Phillies have to replace Realmuto, Schwarber, Bader, Suarez, and 2 relievers – Buehler and Robinson.

                   Painter is likely to replace Suarez so that would still leave a spot open since Painter has already been added. Another slot is also being held for Crawford who doesn’t need Rule 5 protection but will surely be on the opening day roster. Maybe we consider him Bader’s replacement. That would still leave 6 open spots. Re-signing Schwarber and Realmuto (or their replacements brings the number down to 4. Bader may already be priced out of the Phillies comfort zone in both years and dollars. I can’t see the Phillies matching or competing. They still need spots for a couple relievers if they go out of the org and starter pitching depth would be nice. So, realistically, one opening.

                   They can’t protect everybody. Reyes is an interesting hitter but he’s at least a year away and it is not likely that a team will select him to sit on the bench all year. A reasonable gamble by the Phillies not to protect him. Their best right-handed hitter in the minors is Keaton Anthony but he only plays one position and not very well (and he’s not Rule 5 eligible this year). Other players and pitchers who might have deserved consideration are Carson Taylor, Caleb Ricketts, Paul McIntosh (these 3 especially with catcher undecided at the top level but they can also hit), Felix Reyes, Raylin Hereda (as right-handed hitters), pitchers Gabriel Barbosa, Tristan Garnett, Tommy McCollum, Griff McGarry, Saul Teran, Andrew Walling (from LHV and REA), maybe even Andrew Walling, Danny Wilkinson, Danyony Pulido, and Jose Pena (from even deeper in the system). These are all nice-looking prospects although I just used batting average and ERA to pluck their names from a list.

                   Granted the guys you mentioned could be released and not missed. But their spots would need to be filled with depth that could help the big club next season, not prospects who are more than a year away. Some might be traded, but all teams are going through the same exercise with their roster and minor league prospects.

                   I don’t know if this addresses your question or even helps. I expect a lot of these guys to be added to the Lehigh Valley roster if they aren’t already there to protect them from the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft. They can be moved off later. We won’t ever know who was protected. These maneuvers are hardly ever publicized.

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                2. Jim, I respect your careful analysis and clear expression.

                   I still have some confusion. It’s not a roster loaded with depth top to bottom. It doesn’t have a wealth of promising prospects in need of Rule 5 protection. Instead the roster has filler, largely on the pitching side — guys who could be thrown into a trade and barely missed.

                   I don’t understand the point about not protecting prospects you’re going to trade. The 40th guy protected suggests greater value in a trade than guy #41 who isn’t protected.

                   Philosophy to the aside, McGarry is a live arm on a team that cherishes guys who bring heat out of the pen. Chace’s hurt but he’s protected out of regard for his potential. In my world, you protect McGarry. Best case: he gets a shot in the Phils’ pen out of camp. Worst case: he goes to Lehigh Valley and plods along in what has to be considered a make or break year for him.

                   Reyes to me is a low probability George Bell. Shoot, because of injury history, George Bell was a low probability George Bell who changed the shape of the Phillies’ destiny by being taken by the Jays. Given the weakness of the Phils’ OF, you can’t say Reyes, Rincones, Rojas, Nori or anybody else is blocked. If you need an outfielder with some pop in his bat, you have to figure a bottom feeder team will have a similar need.

                   I couldn’t care less about safeguarding a roster spot for Crawford at the time of the Rule 5 draft. Guys will be on long term IR or moved in such a way as to accommodate Crawford when the time comes. So you see why I’m confused.

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                3. The 40-man roster is where you include your depth for the major league team. The players there are there so that they can be called up if needed. How many spots do you want to allocate to prospects you are protecting from the Rule 5 draft? These prospects are players not likely to be able to step in to play at the major league level this season. Of the 3 players the Phillies protected, only Painter is going to play at the major league level this season. So, the effective depth of the 40-man roster is reduced to 12 (40 – 26 active roster players – 2 Rule 5 guys who aren’t going to play for the Phillies).

                   The 2 players I referred to in the trade scenario are being discussed in active talks. If you protect them and the deals fall through, you’ve got two more guys on your 40-man roster who are taking away from depth decisions. If you want to move them off the 40-man roster, you expose them to the DFA process and could lose them for nothing. The 40th-41st guy is confusing to me. For the past couple years, the presumptive 41st guy (Painter) carried more value to the organization than a lot of the guys ahead of him not just the 40th guy.

                   McGarry. Yes, he has a live arm. He also can’t throw strikes consistently. Both have been true forever. I don’t think I would have disagreed if they protected him. I DO KNOW that this would not be his FIRST make or break year. He’s going into his 27-year-old season. How many chances does he get? Sometimes a guy is exactly what we see he is.

                   Yeah, I like Reyes too. I don’t think I said he was blocked. I think I implied (inferred?) he’s not major league ready and I don’t think a team would try and stash him on their bench, not even a bottom feeder.

                   I wasn’t saving a roster spot for Crawford now. He doesn’t have to be added until the end of spring training. I was calling attention that he will require one down the road.

                   Of the 3 pitchers you mentioned (Rangel, Hoffman, and Mercado), their value to the team was that they could be called upon to pitch if/when needed AND that they had available options remaining. Now Mercado hasn’t pitched well when called up since his first relief appearance and first start in 2024. Hoffman had one opportunity in 2025 and gave up 3 runs in a blowout win over Seattle. Rangel however pitched to a 2.45 ERA over 5 appearances. All 3 still have an option remaining. The Phillies may not be done with them yet. Unfortunately.

                   Finally, the Phillies don’t have a history of protecting a lot of prospects. Here are the past 5 years. They did select 5 players after the COVID-shortened 2020 season.
                   2025:
                   11/18/25 Philadelphia Phillies selected the contract of RHP Andrew Painter from Lehigh Valley IronPigs.
                   11/18/25 Philadelphia Phillies selected the contract of RHP Alex McFarlane from Reading Fightin Phils.
                   11/18/25 Philadelphia Phillies selected the contract of RF Gabriel Rincones Jr. from Lehigh Valley IronPigs.
                   2024: Only Abel contributed at the major league level in 2025
                   11/19/24 Philadelphia Phillies selected the contract of RHP Moisés Chace from Reading Fightin Phils.
                   11/19/24 Philadelphia Phillies selected the contract of RHP Jean Cabrera from Reading Fightin Phils.
                   11/19/24 Philadelphia Phillies selected the contract of RHP Mick Abel from Lehigh Valley IronPigs.
                   2023:
                   NONE
                   2022: Rojas contributed during the 2023 season
                   11/15/22 Philadelphia Phillies selected the contract of OF Johan Rojas from Reading Fightin Phils.
                   2021: None contributed at the major league level in 2022
                   11/19/21 Philadelphia Phillies selected the contract of SS Luis Garcia from Jersey Shore BlueClaws.
                   11/19/21 Philadelphia Phillies selected the contract of RF Jhailyn Ortiz from Reading Fightin Phils.
                   11/19/21 Philadelphia Phillies selected the contract of RHP James McArthur from Reading Fightin Phils.

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                4. I guess it would be fair to not only list the players protected but also list those lost/gained during the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft.

                   2024:
                   12/11/2024 – Phillies purchased contract of RHP Mike Vasil from NY Mets in the Rule 5 Draft
                   12/11/2024 – Minnesota purchased contract of RHP Eiberson Castellano from Phillies in the Rule 5 Draft
                   2023:
                   None
                   2022:
                   12/07/2022 – Phillies claimed RHP Noah Song off waivers from Red Sox Organization
                   2021:
                   None

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                5. Jim…… “Keaton Anthony but he only plays one position and not very well.”

                   Did he regress? ….won a minor league Gold Glove in 2024 at first base.

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                6. In a recent discussion down here, I had suggested a corner outfield position for him when I was told what I wrote. It was a long conversation, maybe I misunderstood.

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                7. Will add to and attempt to clarify some of Jim’s points. Griff is not a reliever, plain and simple he either starts or struggles, he doesn’t have the frame of mind to pitch out of the bullpen, struggles mightily when asked to do so, it’s well known. His velocity was adjusted downwards to accommodate command and control, falls off the mound glove side when he pumps up the heat and loses the zone. As a starter he’s more tempo and pitch ability with good stuff. The “risk” is that a team selects him and tries to convert him back to a reliever – don’t think that will go well. Most scouts are aware. The hope is he won’t get selected and can be part of the rotation at LHV.  I think there’s a major league capability as a starter there but Griff still needs to prove that.

                   Keaton is a very good defensive first baseman – that hasn’t changed, he’s coming off an ankle injury but is ready to go. His lack of foot speed and athleticism limits him to first base only – he has a big league offensive skillset but there’s sometimes a lack of push. Numbers are great so far but numbers aren’t everything.

                   I am a huge Felix Reyes fan but scouts have reservations about his defensive skills. Big Felix is similar to Keaton in lacking foot speed, I believe he can play 1B or LF and I do believe he can hit at the top level but others have doubts, it’s not seen as likely he gets selected in the draft as there are more doubters than believers. I believe he needs another year of minor league progression to convince the naysayers.

                   Saul Teran is interesting, I truly believe he will pitch in the big leagues, his slider is major league quality, needs to add strength and velo ticks to become what many envision he can become – is there a chance a team stashes him on their active roster, sure – but he’s not quite ready for the majors yet. Needs reps at the upper levels. 

                   In regard to Mercado, Hoffman and Rangel – Mercado has big arm skills, too early to punt that away.  Rangel is solid depth as a starter at AAA, he’s better than what folks who haven’t seen him pitch know. At this point he and Jean Cabrera are the SP depth along with Chuck King and McGarry. Hoffman pitched well at season end – has a funky delivery – teams like funky deliveries again 🤓.

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                8. This falls under the same principle of why teams don’t have 8 lights out relievers. You have to have a long man because eventually, you will need that pitcher to eat innings.

                   The 40 man roster not only has the 26 man roster and the prospects that you want to stash, but the depth players that teams will have to call up, usually due to injuries. Not too many teams will have all their prospects at AAA waiting for an opportunity. Sometimes you will need to rely on Alan Rangel for a spot start or Mercado to eat innings. At this point in his development, Alex McFarlane will not be ready to face big league hitters in 2026 so pretty sure the Phillies don’t want to call him up until he has refined his pitches. They would rather bring up somebody who should be able to handle himself in the bigs, like Rangel.

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          2. Mike Elias is very good at tanking and accumulating talent through the draft. I haven’t seen much evidence that he’s good at actually building a competitive team and developing said talent.

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             1. Steve, thanks for taking the time to analyze these prospects. If McGarry has a 10 % chance of becoming a starter on a quality time like the Phillies, I see him in rare company.

                To my way of thinking, the Phils’ ability to develop starting pitching is the envy of no one. I can understand teams not competing for a ring seeing a chance to develop a pitcher with tools like McGarry or McFarlane or Chace. Therefore I’d like to protect all 3. Chace’s rehabbing and he’d be the last one to be taken in the Rule 5.

                15 players pretty consistently get selected in the MLB portion of the Rule 5 each year. It’s hard to know how Reyes stacks up against other prospects with similar profiles.

                I don’t know what the Phils get to keep while exposing Reyes, if that’s what they do.To me it’s a Robert, a Mercado, or a Rangel — each unlikely to log as many as 15 innings in this coming season. At the MLB level, 15 innings would be a career high for any of them. So the Phils are guarding an empty hen house if they protect these guys at the expense of a prospect on an upward trajectory.

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          3. I think the Orioles are out of their minds. Since the team was sold it seems every decision is foolish and short-sighted. This team has already started to sink like a rock and I don’t think that’s going to change anytime soon. This is a study in how to screw up a rebuilding process. It’s hard to imagine the Orioles losing any less than 90 or 95 games next year on their current trajectory (they have no pitching). If I were the Phillies, I’d be kicking the tires big time on a trade for some of their young talent.

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             1. If you are thinking Rutschman, Henderson or Holliday might as well forget about it…..would cost a ransom for either….Painter and Crawford would have to be in the equation for the Os to listen.

                Westburg could come at a reasonable return.

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          4. Medical prognosis on Grayson….debridement surgery on the elbow must have revealed more than they wanted to see long term. I think the Angels are taking the risk…whether or not GrayRod will still bring it into the hi-90s again may be in question.

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             1. Romus, I wonder if the phillies going after Japanese players, has anything to do with new Sushi shop on oregon ave. Near stadium?

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42. Projected contract for Murakami will be 6/160. The Phillies are in the bidding so it’s going to get interesting. He needs to make a decision by Dec. 22.

    I don’t think it’s a given that Murakami goes to the Dodgers or the Yankees.

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    1. The really interesting thing about Murakami is that, as a hitter, he’s a bit of a Kyle Schwarber clone. He generally doesn’t hit for a super high average (sometimes he does but other years not so much), but he hits for a ton of power and draws a lot of walks. If Alonso is plan B, Murakami may not be a bad plan B/C and he’s still very young – only 26. So this is all about how you project the Japanese stats to MLB and what the metrics say about his hitting. But the Phillies have some options here.

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       1. Apparently, Murakami also has Schwarber-like exit velocities. I’m not saying he’s another Schwarber, only that he has Schwarber-like tools and abilities that have played out well in Japan. I think what we’ve seen the last few years confirms that Japanese stars often transition pretty well to MLB.

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          1. Japanese pitchers translate extremely well. Hitters are much more of a gamble. The approach to hitting in NPB is pretty drastically different to that of MLB.

             That said, Murakami, specifically, is very much an MLB type of hitter. So the only concern would be if he was feasting too much on the NPB pitchers who wouldn’t crack an MLB roster. But the Phillies have scouted him pretty extensively. They must have liked what they saw when he was up against MLB caliber pitchers, too.

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             1. Do they though? Going back to Nomo, I bet I can name more that have not translated well to the ones who have.

                My bar is “do it for two seasons in a row” for all players, including Japanese imports with a track-record. Yamamoto might be the best one yet, but I need to see it done next year as he only pitched ~90 innings in 2024.

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                1. Agree…let’s see if he can get to 170 innings first and still be consistent and good for a number of years. Darvish and Kuroda are two he may never catch in total wins.

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                2. I meant the modern Japanese players.

                   But I’ll also take that bet. As of this year, 28 Japanese pitchers have pitched in 100 or more games at the MLB level. For starters, that means they stuck around for at least 4 years and for relievers that means they were either highly effective for 2+ years and/or they were considered effective enough for 3+ years.

                   I’d honestly be shocked if you could name 28 Japanese players overall, let alone just pitchers, that flamed out without doing a decent amount of research. (Nothing against you, just the average person’s memory isn’t nearly that good to be remembering ~30 very forgettable foreign players.)

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43. Phillies apparently interested in
    Tatsuya Imai, Japanese SP who is expected to be posted for mlb soon.

    Between Murakami and Imai they are aggressive in hunt for top H & P from Japan. Hopefully one helps put Philly in the mix regularly!

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    1. Murakami and Imai >>>>>>Ohtani and Yamamoto…..well maybe not, but might be close enough to get a ring.

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    2. https://x.com/PhillyFrontO/status/1990882456807891017

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       1. Yeah, this should an interesting offseason – I think even the Phillies know they can’t just run it back again. They need to make some fundamental changes and I think they are going to chase a few of these Japanese players. Imai is interesting, but he’s a small guy like Pedro Martinez. I’d be concerned about a long term contract (more than 5 years) with a player like that, but another impact arm would be great.

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          1. Interestingly the Phillies were one of the last teams, if not the last team to integrate black ballplayers into the majors back in the 50s The first black player for the Phillies was John Kennedy, who debuted as a pinch runner in Apr, 1957. He was also the last player to integrate a team in the NL, which was decade or so after Jackie Robinson.  Looks like they like to take it slow. So when they ever sign a Japanese player…of quality…..I will believe it then.

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       2. I get that the Phillies are doing their diligence, but I don’t see them going as hard for Imai. The Phillies rotation is one of the strengths of the team (Wheeler, Nola, Luzardo, Sanchez, Painter, Walker). Painter is going to get a shot in ST. Walker is still here. Signing Imai, where does he slot in? Imai’s agent is Scott Boras and there’s a projection that Imai will get 8/190!

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       3. You know… at this point… the way JM can throw money around… i just want to weasel my way into his Christmas party. It’s gotta be worth it!

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44. I just want them to sign really good MLB players. I don’t much care where they come from or what they look like.

    Now if they bat left or right, can run or can defend etc. That’s pretty important LOL

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45. MLB trade rumors has a list of non tender candidates and no surprise, Alec Bohm and his projected salary of $10.3M is one of the highest on the list.

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    1. Are the Philies able to non-tender him? Thats an interesting wrinkle if so. When looking at the payroll numbers, to help reshape the team… there didn’t seem to be a lot of money unless you went to the 300+k threshold … even then.. that was quickly eaten up by Scwarber & realmuto’s expected returns. If you can dump 10mil off the book & trade Strahm, 17 milion can go along way in getting a top tier player…. You might even be able to bring in Bregman or Alonso with with that money…. Or maybe resign Suárez. Will see. Thats a nice path to reshaping the roster. That said, Bohm was very good with moving runners for RBI’s and hitting with RISP. Seemed that way at least.

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       1. Yes, they can non-tender him a contract which makes him a FA. Technically, he doesn’t have a contract with the Phillies until they offer him arbitration.

          Decision date is tomorrow.

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       2. Unless Strahm brings us back a pre-arb reliever or 3B, trading him won’t free up any money. Any decent reliever we get on the open market is going to cost more than he does. Remember that Romano was a reclamation project and still got $8.5M.

          Strahm is a career 2.80 ERA lefty reliever (not counting his ERA as a starter). Getting that for $7M is highway robbery.

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46. Like to see if 29-year old Matt Vierling could be brought back on a pillow contract, if the Tigers let him walk….should be healthy from the shoulder and oblique strains by now. Other than catch, very versatile and can play all of the other positions.

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    1. I mean, Vierling is okay, but guys being okay is what got us into this outfield mess in the first place. I’d shoot higher than that, but he might be okay as a 4th outfield/platoon piece. Just not really excited about him at all.

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47. Closing this down. New article at How Would You Fix the Phillies? | Phuture Phillies

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