Phillies Discussion 9/19/2025

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Division clinched!

With nine games remaining, the Phillies’ magic number to secure the second seed and the accompanying wild card round bye is four, any combination of Phillies’ wins and Dodgers’ losses.

The Brewers’ magic number for the top seed is six, any combination of Brewers’ wins and Phillies’ losses.  The Brewers’ magic number to clinch home field throughout the entire post-season is four.  (Home field for the world series is determined by the best regular season record.) 

I’ve got nothing else except that, as has been mentioned here often, I too am concerned that the Phillies sometimes have trouble with established starting pitchers.  Look at their inability to hit Ohtani and Snell this week.  I was reminded that the Phillies hold the distinction of being the last team no-hit in the world series.  Seven current Phillies were in the starting lineup that day – Schwarber, Harper, Realmuto, Bohm, Castellanos, Stott, Marsh; eight if you count the starting pitcher – Nola.

I’ll leave it there.  I’m celebrating a birthday that ends in a zero today.  For the past two decades I have annoyed my wife by telling anyone who asked that I was “going on x0 where x was the number of my next decade.  For example, the day I turned 50, I began answering that I was going on 60.  When I turned 60, I was going on 70.  As of today, I am going on 80.  Tracy no longer finds this funny which heightens the enjoyment for me.

This is your Phillies discussion.

Transactions (End-of-season housekeeping has begun.  Players are being activated from the 7-Day Injury and Development Lists)

9/18/2025 – Lehigh Valley transferred RHP Andrew Painter to the Development List
9/18/2025 – RHP Griff McGarry assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading
9/16/2025 – Phillies placed 2B Edmundo Sosa on the 10-day IL retroactive to 9/13, right groin strain
9/16/2025 – Phillies designated CF Brewer Hicklen for assignment
9/16/2025 – Phillies selected the contract of 2B Rafael Lantigua from Lehigh Valley
9/16/2025 – SS Erick Brito assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading
9/16/2025 – RF Felix Reyes assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading
9/16/2025 – Reading activated SS Carson DeMartini from the 7-day IL
9/16/2025 – Jersey Shore activated LHP Mavis Graves from the 7-day IL
9/16/2025 – Jersey Shore activated RHP Paxton Thompson from the 7-day IL
9/16/2025 – Jersey Shore activated RF Nick Biddison from the 7-day IL
9/16/2025 – Jersey Shore activated RHP Sam Highfill from the Development List
9/16/2025 – Clearwater activated SS Robert Phelps from the 7-day IL
9/16/2025 – Clearwater activated OF Carter Mathison from the 7-day IL
9/16/2025 – Clearwater activated OF TJayy Walton from the 7-day IL
9/16/2025 – Clearwater activated RHP Luis Gonzalez from the Development List
9/16/2025 – Clearwater activated LHP Raymon Rosario from the Development List
9/16/2025 – Clearwater activated RHP Eli Trop from the Development List
9/16/2025 – DSL Phillies Red activated LHP David Hernandez from the 7-day IL
9/16/2025 – DSL Phillies White activated LHP Juan Parra from the 7-day IL

213 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion 9/19/2025”

  2. Jim: Going good (…on 80), oldtimer, … don’t need to worry til Doc sez, “don’t buy any green bananas!” 👍 Happy BD!

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    1. Jim, Happy Birthday, as well. I’m celebrating my own birthday tomorrow and, for the record, I can tell you that you’re still a kid.

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    1. Jim. Likewise. Happy Birthday. Many more. I really appreciate all that you do. I enjoy this site immensely being maybe the only Hoosier aware of it though I have showed many some of the posts. Thanks for all you do. I know it is a chore to put up with all of us at times.

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  5. Eric Longenhagen posted an extended report on Painter in response to a question in his Q&A on Fangraphs today:

    Eric A Longenhagen: Painter is wrapping up a season that is disappointing in light of the perhaps overzealous expectations laid out for him by people like myself, who posited Painter might kick down the door and play a meaningful role in a contending team’s rotation by the end of this season. He’s struggled to the tune of an ERA and FIP over five at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, and is missing fewer bats with his fastball than I would have guessed if you’d have told me Painter would be sitting 96 all year (more on that later) coming off surgery. But in a vacuum his season has been fine. This is a 22-year-old who hadn’t thrown a pitch at an affiliate since 2022 and yet was aggressively pushed to Triple-A and has been able to keep his head above water, plus Painter has pitched better of late.

    When you look at the 2025 season as a whole, Painter’s stuff has performed like it’s made of average or below components across the board, but his stuff still *looks* good, and Painter is making adjustments. Since the All Star break he’s nearly tripled his changeup usage, and that pitch is improving rapidly. Both it, and his slider, are playing more like plus offerings in terms of miss and chase, during the last six weeks of the season. Painter has feel for backdooring his harder slider (impressive for a pitcher his age/size) and for burying his curveball in the dirt, but less so for creating lateral chase off the plate with his breaking stuff. It’s a nice toolkit of secondary pitches for a giant 22-year-old.

    If there’s a real issue looming here it’s Painter’s lack of fastball playability. This is a 6-foot-7 guy who is only generating a little over six feet of extension, he’s not powering way down the mound. This is having dual negative impact on Painter’s fastball because not only does the generic extension make hitters appear more comfortable, but a shorter stride and therefore more upright style of delivery is causing Painter’s fastball to approach the plate with downhill plane, which is often not great for missing bats. When we last had affiliated pitch performance data from Painter (2022) his fastball was utterly dominant (29% miss, .645 opponent OPS), but this year has been pretty bad, with a 17% miss rate and an opponent’s OPS over 1.000 (pending update after final start). Has there been a post-surgery mechanical change here that might explain the huge dip in the fastball’s bat-missing performance? I’d say so.

    Painter’s newer delivery features a good bit less tilt in his torso and a slightly lower arm angle. The current release point looks easier for him to execute and repeat than the one in 2022 and this newer slot probably helps Painter move the ball laterally more than his old one, but these changes have also sucked some of the pure vertical life out of his pre-surgery fastball. Here we have visual evidence that reinforces what the data suggests; that something here has changed and negatively impacted the bat-missing ability of Painter’s fastball compared to when he was last pitching for an entire season.

    He still has a very favorable overall forecast as a mid-rotation workhorse with good secondary stuff and command, but it’s tough to project him as a contender’s no. 1 or no. 2 starter without Painter having an impact fastball, and so he slides an FV tier on this end-of-season update. He made his final Triple-A start on Wednesday (the Phillies were shortening his rest between starts until the last couple of weeks when they let him go on a full week’s rest) and I think you could argue he’s the Phillies’ fifth best starter right now, or at least that he’s in the mix with Taijuan Walker and Walker Buehler in that regard, but it would take a ton of depth-killing 40-man roster maneuvering (plus altering Painter’s day to throw to get him in lockstep with Walker and Buehler) for Painter to be elevated proactively. Despite Zack Wheeler’s injury, Painter is unlikely to impact the playoff race unless the Phillies have a couple more injuries during the final few weeks of the season.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. So I’m interested to hear everyone’s feelings on Painter now. I never felt he should have been “untouchable” but the return would’ve had to be great. It would be nice to see how he does next year after having a normal off-season.

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      1. Unfortunately, DD didn’t help the cause with his aggressive timeline but now it seems the pendulum has swung too far the other direction.

        Look at Strider’s return from TJ with Atlanta. Looks a lot like Painter’s where the velocity is mostly back but fastball command is still lacking. He’s sporting an ERA pushing 5.

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      3. My feeling on Painter is he is still very young and nothing he has done this year has changed my opinion on him. The stuff is still plus across the board. But he is not a finished product yet. No worries.

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  7. “Tracy no longer finds this funny which heightens the enjoyment for me.”

    This is the definition of my marriage, Jim. Just substitute my wife’s name for Tracy. Happy birthday to you, and here’s to many more.

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  8. Oldruff – If I read Jim’s age post correctly, he’s 70 going on 80. Maybe he could set us both straight.

    I thought that the Iron Pigs had a chance for the playoffs. If so, Painter could pitch again. Am I wrong?

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    1. IronPigs are out of the playoff picture. They had a chance to win the first half but went 3-11 in the final 14 games of the half and finished 0.5 games behind Jacksonville.

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  10. Jim has mentioned events and times of his life. I know I was 11 for the Phillies 64 team. I believe Jim mentioned where he was at then back when they were discussed. But I have a hard time remembering what Ruff said to me an hour ago so I may be all wrong. LOL

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    2. I was 8 that summer, turned 9 when the Phillies were 89-60 with a 5.5 game lead over second place St. Louis. They lost 4-3 to the Dodgers in 16 innings on my birthday in LA. RAJ’s dad went 4-7 in that game. The winning run scored when Willie Davis stole home.

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  11. You may be correct Romus. May have said around age 9 during the Bunning/Short Mauch discussion. 9 + 61 years since = 70. Math adds up.

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  12. Andrew R – To weigh in on your question, I believe most of us here on PP are so desperate for a homegrown top of the rotation pitcher that we all drank the kool-aid about Painter and are hoping/praying that he delivers the goods. I think the last time we actually saw a draft choice rise to fruition it was Nola. We can’t count Suarez because he was a Latin signee.

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    1. I’ll admit, I was pretty high on Painter until the TJ surgery. Once he came back and did well in AFL, I thought that was the best time to try and swap for a similarly ranked position player prospect. I don’t think there were any catchers up that high on any top-100 list, but there were some CF’s.

      I think we’re “stuck” with him now, which may not be a bad thing. His value has plummeted, so hopefully we stick with him and he figures it out.

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      1. First time that I saw ,Painter all I could say was wow. That curve and fastball were elite. I don’t know if he will get it back.

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    2. Of course you can count Suarez – he was signed and developed by the organization. I think you can also count Sanchez because he was in the minors for 4 years here and we developed him. And there was no Kool-Aid drinking with Painter, before the TJ surgery he was as good of prospect as you could find. He still might get there, by the way, but it’s just not as certain as it was before.

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  13. Dodgers last six games of the season are all away…..three with the Dbacks in the desert, and finish up in Seattle with the Mariners. They now have the Giants for three in LA….maybe the Giants can win of these last three.

    Phillies magic number for a bye is four. Marlins for three and Twins for three next week at home. Maybe they will get that bye before next weekend.

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  14. First of all, happy birthday, Jim.

    Second of all, what an odd game that was… Did anyone ever expect to see Brandon Marsh of all people be intentionally walked? Oh well, good win. We pick up a game on the Brewers and keep the Dodgers at arm’s length.

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    1. Nick Casty’s post game ‘player of the game’ interview was a bit awkward-terse and curt …..one or two word answers for a few questions….TMac and Ruben scrambled for the last question or two.

      Easily can see Casty is not a happy camper…even with his 250th HR…..hope he stays mad for the next six weeks.

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      1.  Nick post game in the locker room …..Asked if he knew why his role has changed, Castellanos said, “I don’t really talk to Rob all that often. I play whenever he tells me to play and I then I sit whenever he tells me to sit. Communication over the years has been questionable, at least in my experience. But also, I grew up communicating with somebody like my father which was really blunt and consistent. There’s been times when things have been said and then over the course of years I’ll have expectations because I’ll latch to what’s being said and then actions will be different. And then I’m kind of left, just thinking and whatnot. It is what it is. I have to do what I can. At the end of the day we’re here to win the World Series. I have a good relationship with the guys in this clubhouse. I’m here to win. John Middleton is paying me money so that I can help the Philadelphia Phillies win the World Series.”  

        .

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        1. Can’t believe that over his tenure with the Phillies that conversation with Casty is a pleasant experience unless he wishes it to be. I think the company line that he is just a great clubhouse presence is inconsistent with the sullen, moody personna that we see on camera. So, if you want to sell me that he is different than what is displayed …… back up a dump truck of “Morton Salt”!

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        2. That interview pretty much guarantees that Casty will be in a different uniform next year. There’s no way that he’s going to be in a platoon for 2026.

          The Phillies might as well start scouting the Marlins lotto ticket prospects.

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      2. agree the interview was bad but would also say that their questions were bad. Not sure continuing to ask about the reduction in his playing time serves any purpose.

        Everyone knows he’s not happy about it. He had a productive night and the focus should have been about hitting hr #250 and the push for the playoffs and bye. Think McCarthy is better and those post game interviews.

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      3. I don’t think it was that bad. Both questions and answers. Clearly he’s frustrated but i appreciate the “I’m not going to say anything to be a distraction.”

        I think its clear that he doeant want to be here next year under Thompson. However, i think he’s trying to separate the now and the later

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  17. I’d like to know opinions relative to the Walker/Buehler tag team approach to starting pitching. Do you see the relative to the roster formation for post-season?

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    1. Skeet….I can see Buehler also as an option out of the pen, like Roberts did last year in the WS with him. Since a majority of starters now only go less than the full 6 innings in play-off games, Buehler could be an asset in those regards.

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    1. I’m thinking more post-season where the matchups are of shorter duration …. win the matchups and no need for a #5. Not realistic, perhaps, but you get my gist. Anyway, Walker/Buehler don’t equal Wheeler, but we need to iron out what we are going to do …. and Rob is scheming I’m sure …. what would you do?

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    2. The Phillies already scheduled the pitching for the last 8 games of the year. Back to a 5 man rotation and Walker/Buehler tandem will pitch only once more.

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      1. Saddens me to say cause I respect the guy, but, in dollar terms, I envision the Nola extension as the absolute worst signing in Phillies history. He no longer provides what the team needs and 5 ++ more years of this involves more forbearance than many of us are capable of.

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            1. A couple of things on Nola.

              We are a long way from saying this was the worst contract ever (the Howard, Walker and Castellanos deals look far worse to me). Nola completely pitched to the contract last year – he was a 3.7 WAR – he was good. Obviously, he was terrible – and he was hurt – this year. He has time to at least pitch competently under this agreement, so we will see.

              Yes, the contract was too long. Way too long. It’s a DD thing – he overpays and, but worse, consistently overextends. It’s why the Trea Turner contract is just nuts – and Turner has been amazing this year. But will he be amazing years 36-40 (?) – the odds are so far against this. Dead years kill organizations and their payrolls – DD is the master of dead year contracts; among the worst in baseball, and perhaps the very worst. I’m not saying he’s a bad GM, he has many things he’s very good at, but long term contracts is generally not one of those things.

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            2. I would like to hear a reporter ask Dave one time, why he believes in offering lengthy contracts—at least 25% longer than one would expect- to players at the 29/30 years of age range. I really like to know his thought process.

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            3. Right now, the 5/125 extension for Ryan Howard is still the worst. Howard was negative WAR in 4 out of the 5 seasons and not surprisingly negative WAR for the length of the contract. And it was for $125M which is more than Taijuan’s and Casty’s contract.

              Potential contenders are Trea’s remaining 8 years and Nola’s remaining 5 years. I think Harper’s remaining 6 years won’t be that great, but overall his contract will likely be passable because of the WAR he’s accumulated already.

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  19. I’m going to say this about Nola, and I maybe wrong… but i wouldn’t recommend putting that nail in his coffin just yet. He’s had off years before. Specially, early on in his career and he bounces back. He is a pitcher, he will figure it out. Now, i can’t image all the remaining years of his contract are trash. He’s been a big game pitcher for us. Even going back to 2022… Did anyone really have faith in him to shut down the Astros to even get into the playoffs? Don’t forget the Astros were a juggernaut then too. He’s had 10 postseason starts, 3 of them 0 runs allowed. He’s missed too, but i think we need to pump the brakes that his career is done. He’s made multiple adjustments throughout his career. He’ll be fine as a 3/4. If Painter does what is expected, with Sanchez … it doesnt matter. Salaries washout. I look at the pitching staff as a whole, vs Individual salaries. Are you getting value from SP1 to SP5? Last night, he gets into the 6th against a pesky team, only giving up 2 runs. Cut his leash at 5 IP this year. Let the bullpen take it home. He’s the 4th playoff pitcher for sure over Walker/Buhler etc

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  20. As players age, there’s a danger in sentimentalizing their most successful past performance. In small markets, it gets GM fired. In wealthier, larger markets it gets alibis from apologists,if they’re lucky.

    I’m not saying Nola is no longer an MLB quality pitcher. But the rosy spectacles you need to welcome the 5 more years of Nola at $24.5 + M a year are ones I don’t possess. No discussion of the Phils going forward can ignore their luxury tax situation.

    Shorter, less expensive contracts awarded some others draw the ire of participants here. I can’t give the Nola deal a pass. If he’s the Phils 4/5 starter. think of how little critical help he can provide in the playoffs now or in general going forward.

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    1. Absolutely no one should get a pass. And baseball is a business, there shouldn’t be any loyalty anymore. Everybody is trying to get the best deal they can.

      But the Nola contract, I get the feeling that Nola’s agent asked the Phillies to go 7 years else he would have went elsewhere (like the Braves). That’s what it feels like to me. It’s similar to when the Phillies had to give the 3rd year to Raul Ibanez to secure his services. And that 3rd year was a disaster.

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  21. I didn’t think Nola’s effort last night was all that bad, actually showing some improvement. Rob did his customary slow jerk, in fact didn’t have anyone up at one point when the range timer was going off. Bohm doesn’t drop the pop in the first we are still tired. You guys all make good points, but we have the resource and will for awhile so we need to learn to manage it. As usual, when Nola pitches the bats need singeing and Rob should take the seat belt off.

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    1. Nola was better last night and obviously, this year has been forgettable for him. But considering that Nola is 32 and in year 2 of a 7 year deal, it’s frightening to consider how his remaining 5 years will look. The Phillies will have no choice but to pencil him in as starter for 2026 and hope for the best. The Phillies’ hands are tied.

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      1. I get it, but let’s not forget that Nola just blanked the Mets the previous start. Was that not a big game? Will see how the contract turns out, he’ll likely be overpaid but I doubt he’s this bad all year for the next 5

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    1. rocco …hard to believe, but last month Tigers were sailing along, now Cleveland is only one game behind them. Tigers are 6-16 in last 22 games…yikes.

      And Reds are getting close to the Mets……Reds starters are very good……not sure it would be wise for the Phillies hitters to face them. Abbott, Lodolo, Greene and Singer would give the Phillies hitters problems…Mets staff is not as good as the Reds.

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  23. Romus. Just saw a notice that if Cleveland beats Detroit, it will be biggest comeback ever. Think Tigers had a 14-game lead at one time. Like Mets, Dodgers the Tigers bullpen has not been good. Gave up a lead yesterday. Were trailing earlier today. Amazing Reds are that close. They have scored so few runs. Greene threw a complete game shutout Friday night. There is a flash of the past.

    As of now Dodgers will face Mets/Reds survivor. Rocco. I traded my 2008 Duramax couple years ago.

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    1. Don….the Reds may not score much, but their starters are exceptional….one of the best as a group overall in the MLB and fairly young. They have been hot lately….winning 9 of their last 14. Hope the Phillies do not have to face those starters in the play-offs.

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      1. Yes. Win 1-0 today. They must have tie breaker on Mets. Listed now above Mets. Dbacks will only be game back after today if they keep lead. Also, Marlins on path for 6 straight wins. May not be easy for Phillies this week.

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  24. Tigers suck. I hope Nola goes to triple a next yr. He could win there. I am so tired of these fifty yr old stuffs at lhv. Rangel. Mosser. They give you nothing

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        1. No problem. After all, we were on the cusp, as the astros (lower case) say. And today, were are, excuse the expression, Librated.

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  27. Interesting final week. Lots of teams jockeying for spot or position. Zona and Seattle for Dodgers. But Zona also has SD. Tigers at Cleveland and Boston. Next Monday they could be out of playoffs. Cincy has Pirates and Brewers. Mets Cubs and Marlins.

    Do not see Philles jumping Brewers, but they most likely go for it till decided. Phillies need to take care of the 2 seed and get ready for playoffs.

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    1. Yes, agreed. Getting the 2 seed and a better record than the the Blue Jays is actually more realistic and important than trying to get the 1 seed.

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  28. Any time the Phillies go west and finish 3-3 versus the Dodgers and Arizona one has to be satisfied. However, they won 3 of the first 4 games so I was a bit disappointed. The good thing, I feel, is that they ended up 41-40 on the road so it shows that they could play okay away from home.

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    1. Saw one chart on MLB last week they had the 3rd worst since that date. Rockies and Pirates were worse I believe. Their BP has really been bad at times.

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    1. Skeet……conundrum….rather Phillies face the Mets pitching staff and not Cincy’s. …….OTOH, rather Phillies pitchers face the Cincy hitters, than Soto, Lindor, Alonso et al.

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            1. Rocco. You are not being nice to Deb. I was only kidding Romus. I think either Zona or Cincy nudge out Mets. Just a feeling.

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    1. Kiley McDaniel fails to mention the Phillies wild card….Ferris Buehler. He could make a big difference…been there before in the pressure cooker and seems to be coming around. He will get to pitch again this week, so will see what happens..

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  34. Happy belated birthday Jim! Pushing the wife’s buttons is one of the greatest bonuses to marriage lol! Best part is … the longer you’re together the better you get at it. My wife can’t tell when I’m being serious or joking. Its awesome.

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  35. I’ll say this before it gets bought up…

    The bye letdown, specifically hitting wise… IF it continues, I think the MLB should heavily consider playing all teams in the 1st round, in a best of 5 series. Give the team with the best record 2 wins, and the team with the second best 1 win. Let them play… essentially the bye gives them that now, in a best of 3… but everyone is cold. Something to consider.

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    1. Always been curious about this one. Is the better team, the deeper team the one that has played well enough all year at a disadvantage in a 3 game set?

      Anecdotally it seems the hot team the one that for lack of a better term sandbagged all season long then fired up in the last few months has held the advantage.

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      1. Think it depends on how they get there. Take the Detroit Tigers as an example, they are the “better” team in the AL Central based on overall record (at least for now) but have been fading fast post all-star break.

        Are they going to be able to turn it back on once the post-season starts? Same issue the Phillies had last year where they jumped out early and then cruised to the end of the season playing .500 baseball.

        Playoffs are all about team matchups and who gets hot at the right time. There’s always some player or two who goes on an extended streak at the right time for the team that wins it all.

        Last year WS it was Freeman with 4 hr and 12 rbi in the WS.

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  36. Did some looking at the playoff schedule. Assuming we get the bye, no matter how many games each series go, we’ll only need a 4th starter twice – Game 4 of the NLCS and WS, assuming Topper tries to avoid using a 4th starter by pitching our 3 LHPs on 4+ days rest. So I’m not worried about Nola at all – Walker Buehler will be ready and they can almost make those mostly bullpen games if need be because of the off days. Nola for 3, Buehler for 2, and an inning each out of Banks, Strahm, Robertson, and Duran sounds not too bad.

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      1. Nola and Buehler are coin tosses. Either of them are capable of putting up 4-5 innings of shut down pitching but for either of them the wheels are always minus 4 lugs after that.

        And then Luzardo scares me as well. His season has been as enigmatic as I’ve ever seen from a pitcher with his stuff.

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        1. Yeah DMAR……pitching does have its unknown concerns going into next week. Most of all the play-off NL teams have some concerns with their pitching…..though the one time that could be a problem for the Phillies hitters if they face them….is Cincy and their starters.

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    2. Interesting thoughts. The only thing I have on that is you hear guys say many times when a team does a so-called bullpen game or whatever you want to call it is it only takes one of the 5 or 6 pitchers to be bad for it to fail. Hopefully it works if the Phillies choose to go that route sometime.

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      1. Don, that seems like it makes sense, sort of like playing Russian Roulette. John Smoltz doesn’t like it for that reason, or at least he said a few years ago. He might have changed his mind since.

        At any rate, given all the stats today, there’s got to be stats on that. Maybe somebody can dig ’em up.

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  38. Really stinks not to have Wheeler… and in another way, it’s unfair but with the expectations(preinjury) … Painter as well. Would have been a crazy good SR for the playoffs. Hopefully next year on that one.

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    1. I agree and also disagree. Missing out on Wheeler totally stinks. But if we had him, I’d be nervous about who Thomson uses and where.

      Does Ranger go to the pen? Does Luzardo? Is Nola the automatic #3 or #4 due to loyalty?

      Things could get muddy and maybe Topper overthinks things. Now it’s easy. Sanchez, Suarez and Luzardo are your best arms. They get the starts. We can worry about the 4th starter when we cross that road. And like previous commenters have said, Hopefully we only have to worry about that two times this postseason.

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  39. Otto Kemp and Griff McGarry named the Phillies Paul Owens Award winners for this year. Guess they will be on the 40 man protected roster but why Kemp over Crawford?

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      2. Why do they keep the Marlins. ? Only team I saw that stayed in town. That uses one bus for the team. I pick my wife up from work and always see teams staying at four seasons. Three or more buses. Cheap skate owner

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          1. Still the question. Why do we have the Marlins. Don’t draw, Teams have to support his cheap payroll. Makes no sense

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            1. Rocco. I heard on a telecast the other day when they were sweeping the Rangers I think that they practice lots more than any other team. They do not have time or the need for extra busses and luxury hotels. They are always on the field. Instead of golfing their starting pitchers are throwing live batting practice. Getting the most bang for their buck.

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            2. Phils GM Preston Mattingly is one smart dude. I go back and forth on how I feel about Dombrowski; not so about Mattingly. Maybe it’s the blood lines but he knows his baseball

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    2. Otto Kemp had a monster year (.987 OPS) at Lehigh, he deserves it over Crawford.

      If Mick Abel doesn’t get traded, I think he wins it over McGarry.

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  40. No more complaining about missed calls by the home plate umpires next year…ABS is in.

    One issue to be wrestled with – top of the zone strikes…all team’s 40 players will be laser measured in spring training….not pitchers I assume..

    Triple A saw more walks and more offense….they had lowered the strike zone in calibrating the ABS device. Origibally it was the ‘letters’, seems that may be altered and will go away.

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    1. If a piece of the ball touches the line now, it’s a strike. However, I have a suggestion. To be a strike, the ball has to be completely inside the box. Touch the line, ball. That would force pitchers over the plate and should increase offense. Not a popular suggestion at the Complex. Pitchers hate it.

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    1. I can see the comparison to Ruf based on batting average and OPS.

      But I think Kemp has reason to be disappointed if his career record is no better than Ruf’s. Kemp has better speed and usefulness in the field. There’s reason to believe that Kemp can be more than a part-time player for some team which Ruf never was. Ruf never had more than 45 RBI in a season which is not great for a guy whose calling cardwas a big bat.

      Kemp strikes out too much for my taste; gives up on pitches in the zone and gets called out.I think he can improve on his pitch recognition. I think by the end of 2026, we’ll have a much better idea of Otto Kemp’s ceiling.

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  48. The last two games Spiderman has appeared in he’s given up a homerun in each. The Phillies do NOT want to limp into the post season. This is going to be a long rain delay if the game is finished at all tonight.

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  49. Phillies gave away chance to secure 2 seed. Phillies gave away chance to gain on Brewers for 1 seed. Very poorly managed and played 8th inning. Sanchez gets 21 outs. One would hope Phillies have guys who could get 6 more with a 3-run lead. Duran should have had a 2-run lead in the 9th. Even he cannot throw a pitch middle middle and expect these guys not to hit it.

    Rocco. Marlins are a ML developmental team. They develop a bunch of young kids and then send them off for more young kids. Once in a while they win enough to make the playoffs.

    Biggest concern for me still is the BP from starter to Duran. Plus, an offense that is very inconsistent like last night. 3 early and then none rest of regulation

    Let’s hope they get the 2 seed clinched tonight. For how awful they have played Mets are back in the playoffs at the moment.

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    2. Yes, IMO his control is too good, his pitches are confined to the strike zone and the hitter can zero into an area and wait. He would benefit from being conveniently wild on occasion and using the high heat more. His economy of pitches per stint justifies my opinion.

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      1. Ruff. I agree. Think we have discussed that he wants to minimize the total number of pitches. He may need to develop a little Bob Gibson in him. No doubt a ML hitter can hit a 100+ pitch down the middle. I did not see the speed last night, but I think it was a FB.

        Last night game for me was lost in the 8th inning as manager you have to be in WIN mode at that point. Your starter has just pitched another gem, and you do are not ready to finish the task. No reason 2 guys were not ready if Sanchez was not coming out for the 8th. I did not see his final pitch count. Shuffling back and forth on the 8-game screen.

        At least the Phillies did not have the complete collapse as Skubal did. 3 runs no ball hit more than 70 feet or so. Skubal himself had a error on a throw under his legs, wild pitch, hit batter, and a balk all in the 6th inning.

        Saw Mendosa used Diaz both in the 8th and 9th. I was wondering if Topper would do the same with the 3-run lead. No matter how far Phillies go I will have anxious moments with the bridge BP guys.

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    1. I’d take 3 out of 5, securing the second seed (and homefield in the WS) just so they aren’t going into the playoffs completely cold, like they did in 2011.

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  52. Mets were just one of a few front runners that came out on top last night…and they after trailing. DBacks came back against the Dodgers…so the magic number for a bye is 1 I think.

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    1. The magic number for the Phils to win the #2 seed is 1. If the Dodgers, with their 69 losses, were to win out, that would get them to 93 wins. With 1 more win, the Phils would reach 93 wins. They hold the tie breaker against the Dodgers.

      The Brewers, with 95 wins, have a magic number of 3 to earn the #1 seed. At this point, 98 wins earns the 1 seed as the Phils, with 65 losses, are capped at 97.

      The #1 seed is likely out of reach for the Phils and is dependent upon the Brewers’ performance which is beyond the Phils’ control. The Phils are like a runner in a long distance race with 2 winners. They need to do the things they are reasonably capable of to remain on pace to earn a bye. They don’t need to play or manage play as if there is no tomorrow because, of course, the playoffs will be their tomorrow.

      If we were in the playoffs, I’m guessing Sanchez goes out to start the 8th if he’s pitching a shutout and is at 91 pitches after 7 innings. The Phils do not have a lights out BP, even if the lights go out for a Duran entrance.

      With Turner and Sosa returning, I like the Phils’ chances as a 2-seed. I really like their chances if they win the NL title. I think their chances to do that are about equal to the Dodgers and slightly better than the Brewers.

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      1. Phillies let good opportunity go by last night. Lots of interesting scenarios left this week. I will not be surprised if the Tigers are the one left out in AL. Something tells me Mets find a way to grab the 6th spot. The way the Phillies play at times any of the 5 teams can be a bad matchup if the hitters do not show up and those bridge relievers do not put up mostly 0s. Phillies did not score last night after the 2 till extra innings. That will be a problem going forward if that happens.

        Liked by 1 person

      2. The Brewers magic number is 2 over us not 3, as they hold the tiebreaker. The #1 seed isn’t happening for us.

        We will be playing 1 of 3 teams in the NLDS: 1) the most talented team in baseball (LAD), 2) the team that beat us last year (NYM), or 3) a very hot #6 seed (Cin or Ari)

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    1. Why are you surprised? The Phillies are probably going to finish with the second-best record in baseball, even after the loss of their ace. I mean, maybe you give them a B+, but, objectively, they had a very good season.

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      1. Agreed, if you had said in April that the Phillies would have 95ish wins and a bye through the 1st round of the playoffs I suspect most would have been happy.

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        2. Totally agree 3up, and add in what if people told you Nola would win 4 games, Romano would be maybe the worst reliever in baseball, we’d get zero contributions at the ML level from Painter and Crawford, Bryce would have a mediocre year by his standards, we’d lose Alvarado for most of the season, and we’d lose Wheels for the last 2 months.

          I know this won’t be popular to say but Topper has done a great job. Some of his in game moves are questionable at times but I once spoke to Lee Elia at a Phillies charity event in the 90s and he said the one thing he wished fans understood about managing a ball club is that 90% of the job is made up of the things most people never see.

          Liked by 1 person

          1. I agree that overall Thomson has done a good job. He just has a maddening habit of waiting too long to make pitching moves when they appear to be obvious.

            Reminds me of Charlie Manual who wasn’t the best game manager but did everything else related to the job quite well.

            Liked by 1 person

            1. Sorry Remus but I don’t see much athleticism with Kemp. He seems to have good speed but he’s stiff when moving laterally. It affects him defensively at multiple positions which is why he’s sub-par at all of them.

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          2. Here’s another thing with Topper. Obviously, he’s not perfect and no manager is. But, often I sense that he makes moves with the team’s long term success in mind, which sometimes makes it look like he’s not seeing something, when, in actuality, he’s playing a longer game. Take last night. I GET why he didn’t pull Robertson. Yes, they’d really like to have won that game, but given how likely it is that the Phillies will get the second bye, I’ll bet it was more important to him to see whether Robertson could be relied upon in the playoffs to pitch himself our of trouble or if he was going to have give the guy a quicker hook. If Topper believed he absolutely had to win that game, I think he would have pulled Robertson earlier.

            My view is that Topper is clearly the best overall manager the Phillies have had since I became a Phillies fan in 1993, and I don’t think it’s all that close, as much as we generally love Charlie M.

            Liked by 1 person

            1. Also, notice how he always plays Kemp. I think he believes in Kemp and that Kemp will be a key contributor in coming years and I agree. Charlie plays young guys a lot who he thinks will become good. If he doesn’t think that, they play much, much less.

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            5. Topper overly relies on platoon matchups generally (I don’t care how tough the lefty is, Stott and Marsh are going to give us a better chance to win than Weston Wilson), but as far as playing young guys he’s lightyears better than his predecessor.

              Girardi definitely cost us wins by never letting the young guys take over for struggling vets.

              Liked by 1 person

            6. I completely agree that Girardi was the worst about playing young players and, according to the rumors about him, when he did play them, he extremely tough on them, making them feel as though they could never make a mistake which is just an impossible situation given that baseball is not a sport you can play tense.

              On Topper, I don’t think he overly relies on platoons at all. His star players play against lefties and righties. He only goes to a platoon when it’s clear a player really struggles against same-handed pitching and there’s an option on the bench that might be better. This year, I think the offense really surged forward when he went to platoons and mixed and matched with his role players and stared self Castellanos down and platooned him too. The platoons, which were widely criticized by the public and press. were a huge part of the August/September surge. It worked! I think he’s handled all of his mismatched players and parts fantastically this year. It was such a difficult task.

              Liked by 1 person

  54. Girardi also of course killed pitchers. He won the World Series for the Narlins but the way he overworked pitchers even then was near criminal. And he was a catcher. I was SO overjoyed to see him go!

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    1. Way it shapes up…..need only three starters.

      Game 1-Sat, Oct 4-CBP……..Game 2-Mon, Oct 6-CBP……..Game 3-Weds, Oct 8-Away…….Game 4-Thurs, Oct 9-Away……..Game 5-Fri, Oct 10CBP 

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      2. Romus. I mentioned to Ruff last night that for me it is Sanchez and Luzardo in games 1 and 2 at CBP. Hope you can win 2 and go on road to close out. I will be surprised if it is not those 2.

        Here is another thing I asked. How many pitchers does a playoff team have to carry on the 26 for the playoffs? For me there is no way the Phillies need 13 for a 5-game series. I believe you can reshuffle each series. What would be your order? Also, how would you rank importance of the guys on staff? Sanchez, Luzardo, Duran, Ranger, Strahm, Robertson etc. Just wondering what others think.

        Dodgers concern me the most. Their BP is questionable, but you know it is going to be the starters coming in instead. Phillies did not do very well against them last week. I can see Ohtani and Snell for them in games 1 and 2.

        Thinking Mets and Tigers may back in for the 6 spots. None of the others can win. Reds lose 2 at home to Pirates. Astros cannot score. Dbacks have tough schedule. Dodgers and 3 with Pads. Mets may be able to lose out which they will not do and get in.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. My understanding is that playoff teams are maxed out at 13 pitchers, but can go under 13.

          I think the Phils will go with 12 pitchers if Realmuto returns to health and resumes his regular workload. Then no need for Stubbs on the post-season roster. Unfortunately, competition for the 12 slots I would not describe as’intense.’ My picks: Sanchez- Suarez- Luzardo – Nola – Buehler – Duran – Strahm- Robertson – Banks – Kerkering – Mayza – Walker. On the outside I put Trivino, Lazar, Romano, Robert.

          The Dodgers will be a handful for somebody, I fear. They’ve got Sasaki and certain other starters healthy and available to bolster an erratic bullpen. Think Walker Buehler in 2024.

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          1. I agree as well. Like the Phillies starters have been lights out for the most part the Dodgers have more of them in the wings. I am almost sure they may only use them in the playoffs. Kershaw may be 6th on the list. That is a blessing of plenty. I am fine if someone knocks them out in round 1. Whoever ends up 6. SD almost did last year. Won 2 then got shutout the rest of the way.

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          1. I think you can pretty much book the fact that Nola will be no worse than the 4th starter, at least for the Divisional round.

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        2. All – no need for a 4th starter in NLDS this year as Game 5 is Saturday not Friday. Sanchez would pitch Games 1 and 4, and the Game 2 starter can pitch Game 5 on 4 days rest.

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  56. The difference from last year.

    2024 – from July 1st the Phillies were 40-38 in the second half.

    2025 – from July 1st, so far, they are 43 -30.

    IMO, the acquisition of Harrison Bader has been integral to their success since August 1st where they are now 32-18. Dave D has to be commended on that move.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Romus. I would agree. He found that magic in the bottle on offense for a while. He has kind of got back to normal. Maybe he can find that again for playoffs. Also, the guy’s other night seemed to think the pink seemed to help as to the darker assortment of items. They spoke last night it will be interesting where he falls when Turner is back. He has to be above JT.

      I would think no one here would contest that he is by far the best defensive outfielder for the Phillies at this time. This makes Marsh very good in LF where he probably belongs. Kepler is a good defensive RF. Leaps above Casty. When those 3 are out there the defense is solid.

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  57. Has Sosa done anything this season to convince anyone that he is a future everyday player? My guess is the Phils keep him next year and try to teach him to play the OF during the offseason so that he can spot start in more positions, but does anyone think he could be successful as a 150 game everyday guy?

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    1. 150 game, no I don’t, I find him to be an incredibly fragile player. I like him, where he’s being employed. I think he could play more perhaps, but 150, no, I don’t think so! I understand though why you want to climb on the wagon.

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      1. Ruff. What kind of wagon is he hitching up to for Sosa. Agree he is really good where he is. I am not sure fragile is correct. Guys who play 100% all the time tend to maybe get hurt a little more. His namesake on the Mets tends to take many at bats after the ball is hit to a fielder off. He almost walks down the line to first. Should not get hurt doing that.

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    2. I think Edmundo could earn more field time playing, elsewhere, perhaps for a non-contender. He’s very valuable in the role he’s in, which corresponds to his role in St. Louis.

      Because of his versatility and skill set, he should have a future in Philly irrespective of the retention pBohm or an effort to move him.

      Would Sosa be valuable as perhaps a platoon outfielder? He’d start at the back of a significant line of right hand bats. It would take a number of developments like the trading of Castellanos and perhaps the non-signing of Bader to make this seem possible.

      Sosa continuing ina Ben Zobrist-type role has value to the Phils. If you could stick Sosa in the OF for a couple of innings in an emergency, that would be good.

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    3. Sosa has 1 more year of arbitration and his final year will not be as a starter for the Phillies. His path to being a starter here is if Bohm gets moved. I heard that teams were willing to trade for him although I’m not sure what they offered. Maybe a team wows the Phillies by offering a top 150 guy but I doubt that happens.

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      1. Sosa is an extremely valuable player. In far less than a half season of full-time ABs, he’s played to a 2.1 WAR and this is not the first time – last year he played to a 2.3 WAR. It’s not a fluke.

        Do I think he sometimes gets hurt? Yes. Do I think you could extrapolate his part time numbers to full-time play? Probably not because, in part, he might get injured and his bat might be exposed because he barely walks and he does wear down a bit. But he’s an incredibly valuable player. You put him anywhere in the infield and he’s between an above average and plus fielder and he’s also an above average hitter. I’ve said I think he’s a better player than Bohm and I stand behind that. But he can play anywhere, which Bohm clearly cannot, and that makes him very valuable. I’d try to sign him to a 3 year deal (3 years, $15-18 milllion?) – he’d be worth every penny.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. One will never need to worry about his effort. I really like the way he and Marsh act in the dugout. Those are class team guys.

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        2. I like Edmundo but if he continues to produce in limited time, he’ll eventually get a starters job elsewhere for more money. If Edmundo was on the open market, I think he can easily get 2/20 with a team option to play 3B or SS.

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          1. Well, he won’t be on the open market next year, so hopefully they can slightly overpay him for next year with the hope he can stay on another year or two after that. But I think he’s very underrated and, right now, if he was on the free market, I think he’d have a tough time getting 2/20 (not that he isn’t worth it – he is!).

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        3. I would love to see the Phils sign him after this season to a 3-year deal, team friendly as he loves playing here, loves his teammates, and it guarantees him a payday beyond next year. I think he’d be very interested in doing that and I think at worst, he is a really valuable backup IF, could become a super-sub that also plays the OF, and in a dream scenario, he becomes an above average everyday IF on a huge discount.

          I also think we could spend less money and get more production out of 3B next year going with Sosa and a LH platoon partner vs paying Bohm whatever he’s going to make. Not these types of players but the arrangement Fregosi used with Ricky Jordan to spell Kruk in ’93, the way Charlie deployed Dobbs at 3B with Feliz in ’08, somebody that hits LH and plays decent defense to play against tough RHP’s so that Edmundo doesn’t get too exposed. Fregosi sat Kruk against only some LHP’s and usually the toughest on a lefty, and Ricky Jordan was very effective filling in on those days.

          I apologize for my partial bias, but he is just a great dude and I know we are all always rooting for him.

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  59. sorry . Haven’t been on here for a few days. Would you give Painter a start now since the last few games are meaningless????

    or is he shut sown???

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    1. My sense is that Topper is fully engaged in figuring out roles for the pitchers who can help the team win a ring. That doesn’ t mean removing a healthy pitcher to make room for Painter. Right now they’re prioritizing experience, track record and guys for whom the playoff lights shouldn’t be too bright.

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    2. The Brewers magic number to clinch the #1 seed is 1 so technically, it’s not over until it’s over. And the Brewers are going into Cincy.

      The Phillies have Nola, Suarez, Sanchez to end the year. If the Brewers clinch, those original pitchers will still pitch but they’ll likely be taken out early, like after the 4th inning. Expect more Trivino, Lazar, Mayza to bridge it to the later innings.

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      1. The second year back could be the charm. After getting TJ, Wheeler also missed 2 season and his first year back, he was not good at all, posting a 5.21 ERA and a 3-7 record with a high walk rate. There’s a lot of reason for hope with Painter, not the least of which is that his velocity was not quite what it was before the injury, but it wasn’t far off.

        Liked by 1 person

    1. Need to be more positive Rocco. Let’s get 4 or 5 good innings. Buehler got 5 last night. He was not on his A game, but one can tell he has an idea how to pitch. JT throwing a strike to 2B in the first helped greatly in a 1-0 game.

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        1. Not really anymore. I still own about 50 acres. Live on 13 or so. We had over 600 acres back in the day. But 7 brothers and sisters. But always a Phillies fan since I was little kid in 1964. That was my introduction year. Always told people other than Tommy Underwood’s family in Kokomo I was probably the ONLY Phillies fan in Indiana for a long time. But I know several now.

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    2. Rocco, chill buddy, Nola’s had all these great years and now one really bad one. Remember Cole Hamels in 2009? Let’s just hope Topper limits Nola’s innings in October and he comes back next year and resumes an otherwise great career for at least another couple years, but let’s not bury him. I have hope and optimism for him next April, and hopefully some good innings next month…

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Yes. Believe Phillies will need some quality innings from Nola and Buehler. If it is the Dodgers and most likely will be Phillies are probably only going to see their starters. They used Sasaki and Kershaw to win the game the other night on Dbacks.

        My 8-game screen on Extra Innings is really nice for all these playoff type games at night.

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      2. Buddy I just hate his contract.but let’s be real. Without a fadtball, his change has to be perfect. Players know he cant blow them away with his fastball. They can lay on off speed pitches. Knowing he can’t break a egg with his velocity.

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        1. Rocco. Like everyone we do not know what the future holds for Nola. But there are some pitchers of his type who did not throw hard and lasted a long time. Can he do it now. I do not know. I hope he can because he seems like a really great person. Jamie Moyer showed lots of Moxy and location and won many games throwing in the 80s. Tommy John after his surgery won like 150 games, I think. I am pretty sure he never threw really hard, but I may be wrong there. Those are lefties. A right-handed comp is not coming to mind at the moment. Sure, some out there. Romus thinks he needs another pitch. I just think he has to avoid that inning where all his pitches seem to be around the middle of the plate. I think he has plenty of pitches now.

          Back in the 60s in Indiana we got 1 tv game a week. Dizzy and Pee Wee and the Game of the Week. It was always the Yankees, so I dislike them. But in 64 the Phillies appeared a few times. So, I got to see Johnny Callison, and he became my hitting replica. Also, on my big standup radio at night after dark I could pick up a few of the 50,000-watt radio stations on a clear night. St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Cincy and Philly. Believe it was WCAU like 1210 maybe. So that is how I became a lifelong Phillies fan.

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          1. You should know this, left hand pitchers get away with less velocity, a left handed has natural movement .

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            1. I agree. But Nola has lots of movement most of the time. But not all of the time. I batted LH but like many today am RH.

              I have a LH granddaughter softball pitcher, and her pitches do have lots of natural movement. So, I agree with your comment. There has to be some other righthanded pitchers similar in style to Nola.

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            2. Speaking of velocity. Every time I watch Jesus Luzardo pitch, I am stunned that we got him for Starlyn Caba. Even with only two years of control (and potential free agent compensation -that has some value too), this is one of the best trades I can remember in Phillies history. Luzardo isn’t perfect but he can dominate any team on any given day and he still has a ton of upside. For Starlyn Caba? What were the Marlins thinking (not that I mind)?

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        2. rocco…..my buddy is an usher at the local church Nola and family attend. As an usher they ask him on occasion to sit at the end of the pew he is in, so others in the congregation do not bother him . I told my buddy, lean over to AaNo and whisper to him…’.learn the splitter’. Of course my buddy is not baseball savvy and says to me, what are you talking about….I said don’t worry about it, Nola will know what you mean..

          Liked by 1 person

  61. Back in the 70s-80s when comedians filled auditoriums, Martin Mull and Steve Martin toured together. They called it the Steve Martin Mull show. What we had last night was the Taijuan Walker Buehler show.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Martin Mull was hilarious. Some of his best work was on Fernwood 2 Night along with the (also) late Fred Williard.

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  62. Eric Longenhagen on Felix Reyes in today’s Fangraphs chat:

    “Guest: Has Felix Reyes hit himself into getting a grade in the next Phillies report?

    Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him last week while i was on vacation, he’s really physical, his data is good (like a 23% miss rate on a guy with a 108 EV90 is pretty good, most dudes hitting it that hard are missing way more). I don’t trust his swing to play versus big league stuff to that level of contact, but I’ll definitely have an above replacement grade on him.

    Eric A Longenhagen: so like a 40? Maybe a 40+ if I really buy it on a deep review? Still a big league piece.”

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    1. He has come on for sure…not sure the Phillies will add him to the 40, which makes it interesting whether or not another lower tier club will take a flyer on him in the Rule 5 in December. He also turns 25 years old during spring training. twenty-six PAs at the Triple A level is not a whole lot of a sample size, but some club may be attracted to him

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  63. I was thinking the other night when Luzardo was pitching that when he is on which has been frequently of late, he may have the best actual stuff of any Phillies pitcher. It is nasty. I missed the inning where he gave up 4 and then retired like 22 in a row or something like that. I also was thinking how he ever gave up all those runs in those think it was 3 outings. Even if he was tipping his stuff is nasty to barrel up. Seems like Phillies got a steal. I have seen where others were scared off by his medicals so hopefully, he can remain healthy going forward.

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