Phillies Discussion 9/15/2025

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Sometime this week the Phillies will clinch the division.  Hopefully in the first game of the Dodgers’ series.

The Phillies have a 4.5 game lead (4 games in the loss column) over the Dodgers for the second wild card.  As long as they can avoid being swept, they should be able to hold off the Dodgers.  The Phillies look to have the better schedule down the stretch.

After this series, the Phillies play at Arizona and come home to face the Marlins and Twins.  The Dodgers play 4 games against the Giants then finish on the road at Arizona and Seattle.

If the Phillies win 2 out of 3 in the Dodgers series, they will have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dodgers.  If they only win one, they will finish tied head-to-head and the Dodgers would have the edge in the second tiebreaker – intradivision play.  The Phillies are 29-20 against the East with 3 games remaining against Miami; the Dodgers are 31-14 against the West with 7 games to play against the Giants and Arizona..

The Phillies trail the Brewers by two games.  The Brewers play the Angels at home, the Cardinals and Padres on the road, and the Reds at home.

This is your Phillies discussion.

Transactions 

9/15/2025 – Phillies sent RHP Matt Manning outright to Reading
9/13/2025 – RHP Tommy McCollum assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading
9/13/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated RHP Tommy McCollum
9/13/2025 – Reading activated RHP Jack Dallas from the 7-day IL
9/12/2025 – Reading activated RHP Gunner Mayer
9/12/2025 – Phillies placed LHP José Alvarado on the 15-day IL retroactive to 9/11, left forearm strain
9/12/2025 – Phillies designated RHP Matt Manning for assignment
9/12/2025 – Phillies selected the contract of RHP Walker Buehler from Lehigh Valley

191 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion 9/15/2025”

    1. Quite a season. Can’t wait for Trea, Alec and Edmundo to make it back. Our bullpen is not infallible but hopefully the lights aren’t too bright for those not accustomed to playing meaningful games this late in the calendar.

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        1. Agreed. I think you give him a chance to show something but for me Kemp might be the better offensive player at this point. I’d have no issues with making that move in the offseason (non-tender or trade) given the priorities the Phillies have at DH, OF, and SP.

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          1. From Matt Gelb’s article today in the Athletic

            “Robertson, summoned after Duran blew a save when he shook off J.T. Realmuto and hung a curveball, “

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            1. The good news, a veteran team like the Phils overcomes adversity to become the first MLB team to secure a 2025 division title.

              But since being a Philly fan means that ‘every silver lining has a touch of gray’, I can’t help but notice how contending rivals like the dodgers, Brewers and Mets have an effective pipeline to their respective farm systems, bringing able young players, notably pitchers, to the fore.

              Meanwhile, the Phils seek to find cast-offs in free agency to plug and play and we fans ponder which ones the Phils should retain, and at what price.

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            2. Props to Robertson. Bases loaded and one out. Pop up to Stott and ground out to Bryce. That is a veteran save. I have been critical at times, so he has proved me wrong. Someone mentioned other night if teams might do more of this bringing a veteran pitcher back the last couple months. Forget who was talking about it. May have been the Sunday night crew.

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          2. Also from that article

            “More shouting ensued in the middle of the room. Realmuto was content to be in the corner now. He didn’t want to talk about Duran shaking on the fateful 0-2 pitch to Andy Pages in the ninth inning. Duran will learn. There is so much left to do. Everyone knows the stakes.”

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          3. I think they were trying nto get the hitters off the fastball, he had a great knuckle curve that wasn’t called a strike.

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            1. missed check swing too… that curve that JT stood on and that call can’t happen in playoff baseball.. bring on the bots

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  3. I got up at 2 and watched all the highlights in about 5 minutes on Quick Pitch on MLB. I have mentioned this a few times to Ruff. Duran likes to minimize the numbers of pitches he throws. But usually to end the game with 2 strikes it is OLE #1 at 102 or so. I did see the HR was the first given up as a Phillie and only the 2nd all season. Not too shabby. Both came at Dodger stadium. Possibly it was an 0-2 fastball before. Do not know.

    Here is how I see things at this point. Phillies have an opportunity to now capture the #2 seed in LA basically. I then see them going after the Brewers at least until the first of the week and see where things stand at that point.

    Just pointed out to Ruff that 2 things do amaze me at this time. Padres have not been able to overtake Dodgers. They get close and then lose 2 or 3. Same for the charmed life the Mets are living. Reds, Cards, Giants and now Dbacks have their shot at Mets. Only 1 1/2 back. Giants got to a half game and now lost 3 in a row. Reds have done that a couple times. Mets may sneak in again. Though I believe in 23 Dbacks may have got in on the last day.

    I may end up being all wrong on these.

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    1. Brewer’s last six games…….3 @ San Diego and then the last three at home vs Cincy….so it could come down to seeding then, for a few teams.

      Mets coild also l be pushing it hard ay the end…..last six…3@Cubbies and then three at Miami.

      Phillies will go into the desert on Friday vs the Snakes for three……that will be tough games since the DBacks still are breathing life.

      Those wild card standings are really tight.

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      1. Romus. They are tight. But no one has been able to get over the Mets yet. Dbacks probably not thrilled Philles are next either. They are only 1 1/2 back and Reds and Giants 2 but neither seem to be able to get over the hump. They get close. Should be a fun 2 weeks.

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  4. Congrats to the team.

    Gotta ask… lol I guess the team installed led strip lights in the dodgers visiting clubhouse? Or were they already there? Hilarious either way. Like it’s a nightclub.

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  5. I like the fact that the Phils have things to fight for until season’s end. There’s no time for complacency. It’s hard to slow down and then turn it back up later. This is a terrific stretch of baseball, let’s keep it up.

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  6. I understand that this wont happen, but I really don’t want to see Bohm back in the lineup. Feel like Kemp is just better right now and has a little more of that “it” factor. Really like the lineup with him in it. I know that Kemp and Castellanos are not objectively terrible players, but I just like the flow of 1 through 9 when they are not in it.

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    1. Bohm is quietly having a terrible season.

      • He doesn’t take walks
      • Has 30 grade game power
      • Has a 51.6% ground ball rate this year.
      • Is slow as molasses on the bases
      • Is a mediocre defender. Doesn’t have good range but doesn’t make a lot of errors on balls he gets to.
      • He has one good quality as a baseball player, he doesn’t strike out a lot. Besides that he is mediocre at best across the board.

      Give me Otto all day, every day over Bohm. Otto can pop a homer anytime and he plays the game with passion and energy. He is also fast and a good baserunner.

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      1. I am in shock V1 you think Otto can play third? He is terrible. Watching him play third isn’t pretty. Bohm is better fielder. Not that he is great. Adaqute at best but Otto isn’t a upgrade

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        1. I think he is absolutely a slightly worse defensive 3b (though not as bad as he looked his first go-round, could have been nerves) but his contributions in the line up more than make up for that. The team is going to live or die by their bats and their ability to score enough in October.

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        2. Fair point. The metrics say that Kemp is a bad 3rd base defender. It’s a small sample size but has made 5 errors already. That said, he has been moved around a lot.

          Imo Bohm’s slight defense benefit over Kemp doesn’t justify not having Kemp in the lineup. He has real game power.

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          1. Otto Kemp is a lesser version of Weston Wilson.

            Wilson has a higher HR Rate, Higher BB%, Lower K% and he’s a better defensive player at more positions.

            Seems people are experiencing some recency bias with Kemp who had a great last week. Take away the past 7 games, and his numbers are bad. Due to a small sample size, his numbers fluctuate easily.

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            1. Sheesh man, did Otto steal your wife or something? What you said works both ways though in regards to his small sample size. His numbers got pretty bad after a two week honeymoon and he struggled immensely, I agree. But hes always hit; every level at the minors, in MLB spring training, and most of the time hes been up. Its completely understandable that after a few weeks in the bigs, MLB pitchers made some adjustments and it took him a little bit to make re-adjustments. Im willing to go with what I have seen from him at every level and excuse his slump, as many players experience that type of adjustment period when the tape gets out on them and pitchers adjust. Seems to me like he has done a great job of fixing that and I dont see much reason to think he wont keep getting better as he gets used to this level.

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            2. Forgive me for not joining the Otto fan club. If you want to believe he’s an everyday regular, then good for you.

              I see a guy with a high k-rate, low walk rate, who isn’t a good defensive player and think bench bat.

              Time will tell which way it goes.

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            3. Dan, I generally agree with you.

              Even when he wasn’t hitting, his approach was excellent, his place discipline seemed sound and he has a nice simple, compact, repeatable swing with a lot of power. He’s also surprisingly fast and athletic. If he can competently field an outfield position or two, he has a chance to at least be an extra outfielder or short term infield replacement and if he really hits, he could turn into quite a bit more and, from what we’ve seen, he really might hit. He’s cheap, he hits, he has good mojo and he has as much potential as you could ask for from an UDFA. There’s a lot to like there!

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            4. did you really just complain about small sample size and then make an argument to take away a 7 game sample? lol.

              they have interviewed him and he said when he first came up he was nervous and pressed. he went back down and the second time around he has been much calmer and more locked in.

              In the second half, his hitting line is 253/.319/.506/.825

              A .506 slug is really good power. In the minors he has a walk rate near 10%. I like his bat and the way he plays. I think that Miller is the long term answer at 3rd, but I am cool with Otto as a stop gap instead of Bohm.

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            5. It’s not about taking away his last 7 days. The point is the sample size is very small, so a good week/bad week cause extreme fluctuations. People are seeing the last week and overreacting. Like wanting to sign Bader to a long-term contract because of his post-deadline numbers.

              You then give me his 2nd half numbers based on less than 100 plate appearances as if that proves anything other than his last 30 at-bats have been very good.

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            6. One of them is in his age 25 season and the other is in his age 30 season. This year Kemp has a higher average EV and higher hard-hit rate than Wilson. And Kemp is 30th in all of baseball in sprint speed; Wilson is 174th. Huge difference there.

              But both have small sample sizes in the majors this year. So let’s look at their upper minors performance.

              Wilson: in AAA he has 1688 career plates appearances with an .802 OPS (his numbers this year are slightly worse). In AA he has 559 career plates appearances with an .728 OPS

              Kemp: in AAA he has 397 plate appearances with a .931 OPS. In AA he has 272 plate appearances with an .829 OPS.

              Plus, Kemp has put up those much better numbers when he was much younger than Wilson was.

              In other words, Kemp is a better version of Wilson. And it’s not close.

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        3. rocco…….surprisingly in college he played 2nd base, another kid manned third base—had a better glove. But that aside….he does work hard at the defensive game with the coaches.

          If looking at next season, he may be used as an OFer—LF or RF, Cab utilize his speed, arm and overall athleticism.

          This season….looks like it will be Bohm once he is good to go…the last part of the regular season. But if Bohm slumps come play-offs…Top will do what he did last year…..let him sit it out.

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      2. Agree with all of this. Ive always hated having both Bohm and Casty in the lineup. I know that they are respected veterans who have had success, but both guys strike out a lot, hit into double plays, dont walk much, and when they do get on base it usually takes two hits to score them. They just clog up the lineup and make it very hard to have rallies with their skillset. I actually applaud Thompson for moving Casty to a platoon role even though he is almost surely unhappy about it, and this team has had issues with being too loyal to veterans. I hope they do the same with Bohm when he gets back, but I don’t think they are going to.

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      3. This is a perpetual problem with Bohm. He’s not really very good at anything and he’s affirmatively not good at a number of things (speed, power, OBP). The result is that everything has to go almost perfectly for him to be an above average player and when it doesn’t, he’s a second division regular, at best. People keep waiting for a breakout season but at this point, I think we have to assume that he is what he is . . . and that’s not all that great. With Sosa and Kemp around and Miller in the pipeline, I probably move on from Bohm this winter.

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        1. I think they tried to move on from Bohm last off-season and found no takers….or no takers willing to give up in return, anything the Phillies valued. This off-season may be different….Phillies may bite the bullet and take lesser value for him…whatever that value may be.

          Perhaps a ‘lottery ticket’ prospect in A or AA ball. However, if they could get Hendry Mendez for Oliver Dunn…..they should be able to get a half-way decent prospect for Bohm.

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        2. I think Bohm sticks around for 1 more year at $10M. Miller has taken no reps at 3B and I’m not sure if the Phillies are ready to give 3B to Kemp yet. Will the Phillies take offers on Bohm over the offseason? Of course. But not sure who wants to give anything significant for an average glove at 3B with middling power.

          Best case, Bohm gives the Phillies 2-3 WAR and then he walks.

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          1. If it’s me, I get rid of Bohm, and find some way not to pay him because he’s a mediocre player who can be replaced for much less money that could better be used on more important needs. This is a WWHD (What Would Howie Do) moment? Bohm is basically Marcus Epps or TJ Edwards. Good players and everything, but, no, they’re not getting a big contract if I’m the GM – let someone else pay that freight.

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        3. Excellent evaluation on Bohm. I thought he would bust out and show his power by now. Though he’s no Gold Glover, but I have to give him credit for much improvement in the field.

          Kemp, I don’t know that he’s ever going to be a major league 3rd baseman, but stranger things have happened. He strikes out a lot, but he has power and decent speed and more importantly he has some clutch in his game. That means he’s not overwhelmed by the moment. He just needs a position. A future problem.

          That’s the wonder of baseball a first rounder could be replaced by a player that wasn’t drafted at all.

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  7. Winning a WS now is more difficult than ever in the new WC era. 162 is in and of itself grueling. So I consider winning your division an adequate success for a MLB franchise. Congrats boys.

    I like to check in on who’s doing what throughout the league in their L-10. The Jays are 7-3 and sit at 88 Wins not really a powerhouse club IMO. Detroit has pretty much been able to coast all season they are 5-5 85 wins. Last you have the Mariners at 9-1 82 wins.

    Things are setting up nicely from a trending perspective for the Phillies.

    A Phillies Jays WS with a redemption of the 93 Loss would be nice. Especially if you have Duran out there for that last out in Philly 🙂

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    1. Agree about the difficulty to win now. Believe both Rangers and Dbacks got in on the last day in 23. Dodgers were down 2-0 to Pads last season and came back to win. May have had 3 straight shutouts if I recall correctly. Then they were in control rest of way pretty much.

      Blue Jays BP with Hoffman has been a major issue for them. They have a very formidable lineup.

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    1. He’s become good at fielding balls hit his way (and kudos to him for working so hard on this), but his range is not good. At the plate, he’s average-ish and has been for a while. Honestly, I think Edmundo Sosa is a better player than Bohm. I’m not advocating that Sosa become a full-time starter, but, on the whole, I think he’s a better player than Bohm because the hitting is roughly a wash and Sosa’s a much better fielder.

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      1. Sosa also has a little Bryce Harper (being a Showman in the clutch) about him. Having said, Bohm is a pretty reliable bat, sans significant power,

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  9. Romus when are we going to get some help from minors? Next year we sit with three bad contracts Cast. Walker, Nola we need painter and Crawford to be good players

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    1. A fully healthy Phillies team presents roster challenges. Bohm comes back and replaces Walton. That’s easy. But who does Turner replace on the roster? Stubbs? Kemp? Wilson?

      When Bohm is healthy, I expect to see him brought back as the starter at 3B. You don’t have to love Bohm or project him to have a long future in Philly to see that there is no advantage to burying the guy on the bench. If he falters after having been given time to get back in the flow, he could lose a start or two in the playoffs.

      If everyone’s healthy, somebody getting playing time in the field currently will get left off the post-season roster. It’s not the worst problem to have, that much depth.

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        1. Agreed, Stubbs will stay with the team as an “extra” player in case of injury but they don’t need 3 catchers. JT will call all the games anyway.

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          1. They have to drop Stubbs plus drop someone for Turner for the postseason roster. I think they might actually drop one pitcher to keep Kemp.

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          1. Stubbs was on the 40-man roster all season. One of the reasons Marchan won the backup job was because Stubbs had an option and Marchan did not.

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    2. rocco…lol…..Crawford and Painter may not be the only minor league players to make a contribution. I am thinking they still like Gabriel Rincones, but dang the OF is getting pretty crowded. Even Darth Bader may be coming back if he carries his play thru the play-offs up to the WS.

      your concern for minor leaguers coming up…Crawford, Miller and maybe Rincones are on the cusp. For me, it is pitching that would be a concern…losing Wheeler for a good portion of 2026, and maybe even losing Ranger also, and Nola’s inconsistencies…sheesh. Pitching is worrisome.

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        1. I really do not know what kind of a defender he is in the field. However this year he did put up some high Philly minor league system numbers….second in HRs, second in RBIs, third in walks, OBP was near the top at .373–walks help there…..fifth in SLG% at .441, and fifth in OPS at .815. He does have some good power numbers with an .196 ISO. He just does not have the great contact skills And he will be 25 years old this spring.

          Whether or not the Phillies see him in a major league role remains to be seen. He could be added in a package in any of Dave D’s off-season trades.

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          1. People forget that he is a rookie. So of course there will be an adjustment period this season. I expect him to get better. But from what I have seen the bat will definitely play at the MLB level. We also need “free” players in our every day lineup. Crawford in RF, Otto at 3rd, Stott at 2nd and March in Left are all really cheap players. That will allow us to retain JT, Bader, Ranger and Schwarber all of which will get a healthy raise. Maybe even eat some contract to get off Casty.

            I would be comfortable going into next year with Otto and Sosa as the 3rd base competition and trade away Bohm for a bag of seeds.

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      2. Pitching is worrisome. John Middleton must back the money truck up for next year. But lets hope they have enough to win it all this year.

        That Rincones kid has really come on strong the last half of the year and that bat is his calling card. Light Tower Power, but can he hit enough to be in the Major Leagues and where’s he going to play?

        I think Crawford, Painter and possibly Miller will be on the 26 team, if their not traded in the off season.

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  10. If the Phillies can win 2 of the next 5 games, they will end up 41-40 on the road. I’d be happy with that.

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  13. I was going to stay out of the Kemp/Bohm debate. Then I saw an exaggerated stat.

    Here are the K% of each player on the active roster plus Turner and Bohm. Castellanos and Bohm are quite a way down the list.

    OttoKemp .296
    HarrisonBader .289
    WestonWilson .275
    KyleSchwarber .262
    BrandonMarsh .246
    J.T.Realmuto .236
    EdmundoSosa .222
    NickCastellanos .216
    BryceHarper .212
    MaxKepler .185
    AlecBohm .170
    TreaTurner .168
    BrysonStott .157
    RafaelMarchán .138
    DonovanWalton .111

    Stubbs hasn’t had a K or PA yet.

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    1. Strikeout rate is one of the least important hitting stats when it comes to producing runs at the MLB level. It matters far more what a hitter does when he makes contact and does a hitter take walks. Bohm hits over 51% ground balls this year and is 47% ground ball rate for career. He doesn’t take walks. That he doesn’t strike out a lot makes him playable but he isn’t a a good offensive player.

      https://x.com/KasperStats/status/1946828722025226432

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          1. As Meghan Trainor said “I’ll about that bass” I mean OPS. Give me the guys in the 800’s and sprinkle in a few 900’s and you got something.

            If you have 6 and 7 hundred guys with only a few 800 guys you’re in trouble.

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            1. The Phillies are ranked 4th in team OPS, Yankees 1, Dodgers 2 and Jays 3.

              We all know those stats go out the window in the playoffs as the pitching will get exponentially better when teams shorten their rotations and bullpens.

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            2. “We all know those stats go out the window in the playoffs.” << not true. Go look at last year’s OPS team leaders. They all made the playoffs. Dodgers led league in OPS last year and Yankees were third. It’s not the only thing that matters. Obviously pitching matters a lot too. But it is wrong to say OPS in regular season doesn’t predict success in post season.

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            3. That’s basically the argument for Kemp over Bohm. If you look at Kemp in second stint in majors, he has an OPS over .800. Clearly more power and a history of taking a lot of walks in the minors. Bohm is the opposite.

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            4. Fair enough I didn’t articulate my point very well. What I meant to say is that it is never a surprise that the team OPS leaders almost always make the playoffs or win their divisions.

              And once in the playoffs teams who continue to OPS well generally end up winning their rounds.

              But we have seen teams OPS well all season and then not be able to find that in the playoffs.

              The 2024 Phillies OPS’d 750 for a 7 rank regular season. In the Playoffs they OPS’d a paltry 597

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      2. I really don’t care how stats are bent to support different arguments. I don’t like to see comments that are just plain wrong. My comment was in reply to a comment that “… all they do is strike out …”.

        This list shows that the comment was wrong, that an incorrect opinion was presented as fact.

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  14. Good post Jim. Putting the ball in play has its rewards. Are Bader numbers with Phillies or all season. He did K a lot at the beginning. Kemp does K a lot.

    Another Phillies win. This pretty much puts Dodgers out of reach. Will be interesting to see if Phillies can catch and pass Brewers and how hard they go at it. I think they push for it till at least the first of next week. Phillies did not really rock Ohtani much. 5 IP, 0 H.

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        2. Rocco, I never doubted you. I have a new name for you and Romus and Ruff. The 3 Rs. Kind of similar to the 3 Stooges. LOL

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  15. Middleton was asked after the clinch, “what makes this team different?”

    His answer was, “we handle adversity better than prior teams.”

    I think that is correct. Last night I turned off the game thinking, Ohtani is throwing fuzz, they got a few off Sanchez. This isn’t our night. I am going to bed. Waking up to a 9-6 win felt great.

    This team really has a fight in it. It has depth in the lineup. And great pitching. This might be the year.

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    1. IDK about that. I thought all of the playoff teams were really good and all of them had to handle some form of adversity.

      But I guess when you are asked a question you have to come up with an answer that people will lean into.

      I thought all of the teams under achieved. The 2022 team should not have had to fight and claw their way into a final WC spot but they did overcome the adversity of a poor start under Giradi.

      Each subsequent year had its share of adversity in the form of injuries and poor performance by players you were expecting to make big contributions.

      Let’s get to the last out of the season and make our assessments.

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    2. Hah…same thing I did…went to bed….then saw what happened this morning…and Marchan’s bomb in the 9th. If they can keep playing ths way for the next six weeks I will be a happy Indiana Don camper.

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      1. I simply went to bed and got up about 1:30. You can watch all the important plays in about 5 minutes on Quick Pitch. Similar to Mets the Dodgers have had issues late in games with the BP. Same last night. Need to keep our fingers crossed that they are able to do that.

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    3. Yeah, this team seems to have the “it” factor, just as the 2008 team did down the stretch. They always believe they will win and have the horses to make it happen. This year could be very, very special. It certainly feels that way and there’s no mega team standing in their way – in fact, THEY may be the mega team. We’ll see.

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    1. I fully expect Miller to be at ST taking reps at 3B. I think Kemp will also get time at 3B but I think his best position is LF for 2026.

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      1. I can see Kemp getting a longer look in LF. If they also bring back Bader, overall the OF could be a plus defensive OF. Heck even Kepler, these last six weeks, is hitting.283 with 6 HRs and 18 RBIs and if they can move Casty , they could bring back both Bader and Kepler…I doubt it together, but I never try to figure out what Dave Dombrowski is thinking.,

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        1. There’s no way Kepler is coming back to be part of platoon. I think he could find another starting job for less money.

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          1. I mentioned last week that I could see a Marsh, Bader, Kepler outfield. I am not sure but add Crawford in that mix and not much power. Kepler may actually like how things are playing out. I do think Phillies make every effort to move Casty. But I may be wrong on all of this.

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        2. If thePhils can ‘lose’ the Castellanos contract, lots of possibilities open up in the OF. I actually pondered last night the thought of bringing back Kepler. I grow more comfortable with him as he grows more comfortable in Philly.

          The other realization I’m coming to is that if Middleton is willing to ante up to retain much of this team, the Phils don’t and won’t have a strong need to look outside the organization for help. Seek improvement from within with prospects who are knocking on the door. That’s a generalization. Here’smyattempt to be specific for 2026:

          Pitchers: Wheeler (with a late start), Nola, Sanchez. Suarez (yes, if possible),Luzardo, Painter, Walker (can’t help it), Duran, Alvarado, Robertson, Strahm, Kerkering, Banks + 1 early for Wheeler

          Catchers: Realmuto (slight pay cut), Marchan

          Infielders: Harper, Stott, Turner, Bohm (if not traded), Sosa +1 (Wilson ? for Bohm till A. Miller)

          Outfielders: Marsh, Kemp, Bader, Crawford, Kepler

          DH: Schwarber

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          1. You’re talking about a lot of players getting raises: Suarez, Bader, Kepler, Schwarber. Even trading Casty won’t cover Schwarber’s raise. You’re talking about $325M+ payroll. The Phillies might even overtake the Mets in terms of payroll.

            I seriously doubt this happens. The Phillies are not re-signing everybody. I think Suarez and Kepler are gone. Bader is 50-50. Schwarber will likely come back. Realmuto will likely be back.

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            1. My moves are in lieu of going after Kyle Tucker on an expensive long term deal, which some might favor. Or Yamamoto whom they were nominally ‘in’ on a while

              The money’s going to the guys who’ve had success and seem to enjoy playing in Philly and trying to extend this window with the pieces they’ve had with some new pieces from within.

              If Realmuto needs to play at his current salary, I’m content to let him go. Suarez was overjoyed when the Phils brought his family to Philly from Venezuela. If Ranger needs max money going forward and some team outbids the Philsm then maybe he will go.

              Bader has turned a corner and seems like an aware guy. He’s caught a flame in Philly and might have a career in media when his playing days are over.He’s re-signable.

              Kepler signed with the Phils mid-way through the off-season. Teams wereb’t lining up for him and likely won’t do so this time around. He’s signable.

              Eomano and his money – gone. Castellanos, Walker and Bohm gone within a year. With low cost replacements in hand or on the horizon, from within the system.

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    2. It kind of looks like Aidan Miller has turned the corner.

      No matter what, I expect Miller to start in AAA next year and remain there for 4-6 weeks at a minimum to make sure he’s ready for the big leagues – longer if that is necessary. And he will need the time because I expect he’s going to start playing third during ST at the latest and that’s his ticket to regular playing time as long as Turner remains our SS (which he will for the foreseeable future).

      Kemp, to me, fights for playing time wherever he can get it – including and especially the outfield. Ultimately, he’ll write his own ticket – and, from what I can see, Topper is ready to play him if he produces – so have at it.

      How the outfield rotation works will depend heavily on whether or not they re-sign Bader (he will obviously opt out of the mutual option).

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    1. Good for Reyes. He should also be at ST looking to leave a good impression.

      It’s no surprise that undrafted players or low bonus signees need to show more to get noticed by the parent club.

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      1. Reyes also has dangerously low walk rates (yes, it matters . . . a lot), but his hit tool and power look good, so let’s see how he develops. It’s found money as far as I’m concerned.

        Liked by 1 person

        2. I saw Felix Reyes several times at Reading and he looks interesting as a prospect. He runs well for a big man, fields his position adequately and hits many doubles. If he could turn some doubles into home runs than he can be very valuable to the Phillies in the future.

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  19. On McGarry

    Interesting development arch. Will see how he does in his second tour of AAA. His biggest issue was control, looks like he has gotten a better control of his repreitore. That said, will see how it plays against better hitters. If I was going to be a negative Nancy, I would say I can see him getting by AAA, but the jumps to the majors,I’d be concerned by his FB. It looks pretty straight, little movement to me. I think MLB hitters would be able to sit on it. Maybe im wrong,hopefully, but when i see his game highlights, thats what jumps out at me. The hitters chase his sweeper type pitch, helps his sneak his FB by them. If they hitters can layoff that sweeper… id imagine that was the success AAA hitters had on him last go around.

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    1. So, do the Phillies protect McGarry in the Rule 5? If not, I would be surprised if nobody grabbed him – if you’re a team with a pitching need, he’d definitely be worth a ST tryout. I could totally see him sticking with a team like the White Sox or Rockies or Marlins or even the Orioles or Nationals. Why not?

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      1. I doubt the Phillies protect McGarry, and I doubt he gets selected. Eiberson Castellano had better numbers at age 23 at Reading and he couldn’t stick with the Twins. At a certain point, you have to get guys out without giving up a crazy amount of runs. Even the long man has to follow that. If McGarry comes in and starts walking guys all over the place, he’s not going to last. I think teams will be able to find other players to take a chance on than a 26 year old McGarry with serious control issues.

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        1. Castellano not working out for the Twins may have been their fault. The Phillies had converted him to a starter in 2024. The Twins drafted a starting pitcher and immediately decided to try him in the bullpen. That plan failed and they returned him to the Phillies. So, he returns to us and isn’t properly stretched out to return to a rotation. Their decision probably set him back a few months. At least a couple.

          Okay, this has nothing to do with McGarry but gives a little insight into Castellano’s season.

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          1. This is an excellent point, and part of a bigger issue that the Rule 5 draft often harms prospects development more than it helps it. You see it all the time: a team sees the opportunity to add a player with intriguing skills that they could see blossoming: but players like that often need reps more than anything to realize their potential. Then the team stashes that player on the bench or in the back of the pen where they hardly play, so they get the opposite of what they really needed.

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            1. There are some success stories, but it’s few and far between. The player should be fine with getting selected because if they make the team, they can make their debut and collect a big league salary. Most players will never get a call up.

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      2. Yes…….I like to sew them protect McGarry. Is there any other current pitchers on the 40 that can be DFA’d? Maybe guys like Trivini, Rangel, Hoffman even Romano could be let go. Maybe even trading T Walker.

        I think Painter will need to be protected…I think he is now Rule 5 eligible.

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          1. I have some old incomplete needlepoint that mom left me ……. was going to ask if you would consider finishing it? Been away and had to read thru all the posts to catch up …… mostly, Bohmed me out so to speak!😉

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        2. I saw Hoffman in AAA. There’s nothing there folks. He’s a AAA pitcher from everything I could see and I put Rangel in that group too. They are not guys you protect. McGarry is weird because I could totally see a team taking a shot on him because the upside remains tantalizing even though he’s a very old prospect with generally poor control – whether he would stick for a whole season is a completely different matter. Odds are against it if he has regular implosions. My semi-informed guess is that they don’t protect him but he’s still probably not selected.

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          1. I had to ask myself……if the Phillies did not want to protect McGarry, then why promote him to LHV with a week to go in the season. It would have been easier just to leave him at Reading and just not protect him.

            I think they still see something in him…maybe as a late inning reliever at the MLB level.

            Liked by 1 person

            1. I don’t know, perhaps because there’s no downside whatsoever to promoting him for a few days as they look for even more information to make their Rule 5 roster decisions. Or maybe it’s a way to give him an “atta boy” for working his way back up the ladder after falling off of it hard earlier this year. But it at least tells me they aren’t looking to release him and are interested in him in some capacity, which is a good thing.

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            2. moving him to AAA will allow them to protect him from the minor league version of the draft. Team would have to carry him on the major league roster.

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            3. Ok……so they still some hope there for him. I guess that also means that he still may not be protected on the 40 and just hope he does not get selected in the Rule 5 and then he can pitch at LHV next season.

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        3. Romus, there are around a half-dozen pitchers on the 40-man roster who are on one-year contracts who become free agents at the end of the season. Plus, another 8-12 pitchers who are pre-arb and arbitration eligible. There are certainly a few there we won’t miss.

          Liked by 1 person

    1. Hope for similar results. Is there much age difference between when this happened for each? May make no difference.

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      1. Article said that Kelly was 31 at the time. Also noted that Alex Cobb also has the same issue with similar recovery time, but he was much younger.

        Sounds like recovery from vascular issue is much more straightforward than when its nerve related like Strasburg’s was.

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    2. Very informative article. Sounds like surgery is scheduled for Tuesday next week. Maybe if everything goes well Wheels will be pitching again at the Bank around Memorial Day or first part of June. Assume Phillies will take it slow like they do on most all of their players coming back from a surgery.

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  22. I’d like to see Thomson sit Harper tonight. For some reason I don’t like the match up with Snell. Snell has a habit of pitching a “little too inside” to Harper.

    Liked by 1 person

  23. Romus tonight is my favorite bet.betting that a home team doesn’t get swept. I don’t care if say it was Marlins at home against otani and dodgers. Sweeps of home teams are tough

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          1. last start of the year?

            Not the worst, but looking forward to his 2026 campaign. He’ll be further removed and hopefully has the life on the fastball & control he did prior to the surgery

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            2. Tac…… I know he was trying different stuff this year and the hope is he comes back revitalized in 2026, having said that, and trying different stuff would impact that …….. are you at all concerned about the # of pitches thrown for 4 — 5 inning stints and the # of HRs given up or have you just written that off to being part of the development and experimentation of his arsenal?

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  25. Romus 3 game sweeps percentage is 27.4 four game sweeps is 14.3 percent. Two games is 54. Percent. Odds are in dodgers favor.thats what I bet

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  26. not to be a Debbie downer here, but the Phillies scored zero runs against the Dodgers three starting pitch the series and we didn’t even see their best picture. Yoshi

    in my view, the road still runs through Los Angeles Dodgers

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Very good point……and the Phillies did not even see Yamamoto or Glasnow. Ohtani said he be willing to go into the OF and come out of the pen, probably as a closer, since their BP is not doing very well lately. Assume he is talking about when the play-offs begin.

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      1. They haven’t hit good starters all yr. Realmuto clean up. His hot streak is over. Cast. Just sucks. I hope they let Realmuto walk.

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          2. Marchan is adequate with a back up like Danny Jansen. Rays won’t be picking up his $12 million dollar option and he shouldn’t cost more than a couple million.

            I mean we all love JT but replacing a 94 OPS+ wouldn’t be hard. I actually think Marchan playing more often can do that.

            Or JT brings his AAV down to the $8-$12 mark. His almost $24 AAV now could sure up a rotation spot that’s likely going to be needed when Ranger departs or if he resigns.

            Cease has had a really down year but still maintains an 11.5 K/9. Could you see Cease taking a Wheeler type deal here (the first time around Wheeler deal not the current one)

            Regardless of WS or not I would shake this thing up.

            Liked by 1 person

      2. Need to hope Mets or whoever grabs the 6th spot can win 2 games against Dodgers. Might happen. Pirates just recently swept the Dodgers. Anything is possible.

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  27. interesting article in the inky this morning on Andrew painter, discusses how he stopped throwinghis changeup for the most part throughout the rest of the season because he kept developing blisters; hopefully that will resolve itself for the future. I expect we’re gonna see the real Andrew painter next year

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    1. It’s hard to pencil Painter into any role going forward unless/until he shows he can get big league hitters out consistently in spring training. If that doesn’t happen, I hope he’s returned to AAA for seasoning.

      Is he a top of the rotation starter in the making? A 5-inning guy? A bullpen guy with quality stuff? Or like a ship offshore whose horn is heard but never arrives in port?

      Liked by 1 person

      1. I think the Phillies realized early on that this was a transition year for Painter as he recovers from TJ. Thankfully, the Phillies didn’t really need him this year.

        Next year is a different story. With Suarez likely gone, Painter is the top candidate to take his spot. The Phillies need Painter to show up in ST ready to go.

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        1. I think the Phils hope they can rely on Painter just as they hoped that he could be called up “Julyish”. I think we all assumed Dombrowski meant July 2025.

          The rotation for the start of ’26 might look like Sanchez-Luzardo-Nola-Walker-Painter, with Wheeler perhaps returning by mid-May. They might try and re-up Walker Buehler. To me that’s a thin rotation based on injury history. Beyond Painter, I don’t see help coming from the farm. That’s why if I were DD, i’d initiate negotiation with Scott Boras about Ranger as soon as the season ends. 3 solid lefties (Sanchez, Suarez, Luzardo) in the rotation can go a long ways towards papering over 4 iffy righties (Wheeler, Nola, Walker, Painter).

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          1. The Phillies are not going to pay Suarez to have 6 pitchers for 5 spots. No team does that intentionally, even the Dodgers or the Mets don’t do that. It’s a waste of money.

            If Walker isn’t guaranteed a starting spot, he should ask for a trade. Otherwise, the Phillies will roll with Sanchez, Luzardo, Nola, Walker, Painter. Hopefully Wheeler comes back in the summer and the Phillies can reevaluate. Jean Cabrera will be the primary backup at Lehigh.

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        2. Mid-year, someone commented that Painter should be ready by like the end of July (it might have been a different date, but it’s irrelevant to the discussion), and I commented that Painter will be ready when he’s ready and as it turned out and was never ready this year. The same is still true. He may be ready in ST or he may not be ready until well into next year (or, God forbid, 2027), but he’s not ready now and therefore you can’t rely on him, although you can project him as depth. My guess is that they Phillies do not sign Ranger (they can’t sign everyone – something has to give, and this year, I think it’s Ranger – whether it should be or not is a different discussion) and acquire another pitcher in the offseason as a depth piece with upside. Fortunately, this is where DD does some of his best work, so don’t be surprised if it works out well. Luzardo turned out better than anyone could have reasonably expected.

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          1. Much of that decision will become more clear early next year once Wheeler is several months into his recovery from surgery.

            If he’s trending closer to the 6-month window that puts his return sometime in April. If it’s looking like closer to the 8-month timeframe that pushes him into June then more effort will need to me made to add a rotation piece.

            I agree that Ranger isn’t coming back unless something drastic happens. I do think it makes it less likely that Walker is moved in the off-season and he spends 1 more season being that 6th starter/swingman.

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  28. Unless Phillies sweep Dbacks it is rather doubtful that they have much chance to catch Brewers for the 1 seed. Need to lock up the 2 and go from there on playoff plans.

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    1. I’m mixed about this upcoming series. Of course I always want the Phillies to win. However, Arizona is just 1.5 games behind the Mets and AZ winning more only hurts the Mets chances. I wouldn’t mind seeing the Mets ousted from the playoffs entirely. I don’t think the Phillies will catch the Brewers for the top spot… especially since Milwaukee holds the tie breaker over the Phils. I’m fairly confident we get the 2nd seed and the first round bye.

      Liked by 1 person

    1. It’s going to get ugly. But when you have the Dodgers spending over $500M and some of the small market teams barely going over $100M, something has to change. I’m also surprised that some clubs even lost money.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. My idea….two league conferences ..a large and a small market.

        A small market team will always be guaranteed a WS berth against a league market team, once they get thru their conference play-offs.

        And then do away with those Round A and B gifted draft slots for small market teams……though revenue sharing may still have to be an option for small market teams.

        Liked by 1 person

          1. That will never happen.

            But the next CBA is going to be a big deal because the disparity between the haves and the have nots is bigger and more troublesome than it has ever been and it means that so many teams barely ever have a chance of getting and remaining good. I mean, if you’re a Pirates fan, you pretty much KNOW you’re only renting Paul Skenes. How depressing.

            But I see a paradigm shift coming and it will come over vociferous objection and perhaps even a lengthy strike. The way the owners will avoid that is how the NFL has avoided major disruptions recently and that’s to sweeten the package for the average players and appeal to them to get votes. MLB actually did this with the current CBA as well – but things may be approaching a whole new level of acrimony.

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            1. I do not see a strike…I see a lockout by the owners on the horizon. And I am in favor of a lock-out for as long as it takes…..to get a hard cap ceiling….and as Monfort of the Rox said, a floor-which directly affects the small market teams.

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            2. You may be right on the form of the stoppage – it could easily be a lock-out. I don’t mind a cap, but to make a meaningful difference it has to be low enough so that one team can’t outspend other teams by like 4 or 5 to 1. If there is a cap, I think it will be really high and designed only to prevent a team like the Mets or Dodgers from spending far beyond any reasonable limit.

              But I think for real change to occur there needs to be some type of revenue sharing – this is where the average teams need to gang up with the poor teams against the rich teams. You’re so right that the floor is as important as the ceiling. The lack of money is why you are seeing so many teams break or approach loss records. It’s terrible for the sport and last time I check MLB has no relegation rules!

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          2. They may not…then again to fix baseball they may do it. As it stands now, obviously, only two large market teams have a chance to play in the WS.

            If the play-offs started today…only the Brewers are the sole small market team from the NL and the Tigers from the AL in the play-offs. The Reds, DBacks, Guardians and Royals are all hanging in there…but come on, in another 3/4 games they may all fall short. The large market teams are in the drivers seats.

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            1. Those large market teams drive the sport and control a lot. I cannot possibly see the large market teams permitting baseball to organize itself in such a way that structurally ensures that only one of the big market teams will reach the WS. No more Dodger/Yankee World Series? I just do not believe that will ever happen for so many reasons. But I do think that other fairly significant things could happen because the problem you are seeking to solve (massive economic disparities) is a real one.

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          3. The MLB Owners and players can learn much from the NHL. Prior to the NHL strike the wealthy teams (Flyers, Rangers and more) made all the big signings and traded for most of the stars. The NHL is now much more balanced than before with multiple teams winning the Stanley Cup. Baseball needs to do this transformation.

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            2. I think some owners are ready to give up a season. As a fan, I don’t want to see a season go down the dumps but I’m willing to give up a season if it brings more parity to baseball. Parity will likely hurt the Phillies because they have money to spend but I think the in the long term, it’s better for the future of the game.

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            3. This lack of competition will cause baseball to decline in popularity. The price of attending a Phillies game is getting out of reach for most families.

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    2. Don…..this guy hit the nail on the head…..”The only way to fix baseball is to do a salary cap and a floor,” Dick Monfort, the Rpckies owner.

      Another way to bring some equality to the league….all players entering MLB must have come thru a draft….unless those who were not drafted but were eligible for a draft…meaning have to have a Rule 4 and also a foreign player draft.

      MLBPA has vetoed both a hard cap and a foreign draft.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. By and large, baseball has always been the most dysfunctional sport in terms of player/owner relationships and owner to owner relationships. And I don’t see that ending anytime soon. And it permeates and affects everything – right down to stupid things like not being able to trade draft picks. And no group of owners is more secretive than the baseball owners, which builds animosity and suspicion.

        Liked by 2 people

      2. Romus. I have NO idea what ends up happening. But using the NFL. I remember back in the day whenever the Cap was established Jerry Jones admitted the CAP was not good for him and the Cowboys, but it was very good for the NFL. Jones had to be one of the wealthiest and most to gain by no cap. But he as well as other wealthy owners went along. Probably no sport where you can be a bottom feeder one year and a contender the next. Unless you are the Cowboys who have not made the NFC title game since 95. Poor Cowboy fan.

        Point is do some of the big owners agree. No idea. Sure, the players won’t but we will have to wait and see. I can see a lockout. On that point my only opportunity to see ST in Clearwater I arrived and the gates were locked. My gf at the time felt the beaches were just fine. Must have been 72.

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        1. Hah……the beaches at St Pete and Clearwater are one of the best……but for me, those days are gone, too old now to want to be a beach person.

          I do think a lock-out looms. The Harper/Manfred thing in the locker room indicates how passionate it could become.

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    3. Oh boy here we go. Let’s get ready to hear the average folk share their views where the Billionaires should get more money. Most teams already received a free, tax-payer funded stadium, plus big television money. But that won’t be enough. Nope. It’s the Dodgers’ fault.

      You want a floor and a ceiling? I could be amenable to that. If MLB opens up their books and shows every single dollar that’s made, then I would think a true 50/50 sharing of the pot should be done. The owners need the players and the players need an organized MLB. It’s pretty even. And if owning a team, makes the Billionaires “lose” money, they can always sell that appreciating asset for big money.

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  31. I believe this is Phillies last shot. Mets young starters are pitching great. Couple of bullpen arms. With those hitters will be tough to beat

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    2. I don’t think their arms are that great. McLean is really the only standout.

      Jacob deGrom was way, way better. Even early Matt Harvey was super nasty.

      Remember Generation K? They came up with much hype and flamed out just as fast.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Yep…even Phillies had some minor league hype with the ‘Baby Aces’…..Trevor May, David Coggin, Jared Cosart and Jonathan Pettibone……until stuff happened. At least this group produced Ranger…..Ranger Suarez….Adonis Medina….Nick Fanti…JoJo Romero……. Sixto Sanchez…….And help as trade chips for Sosa and JTR

        :

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          1. Ruff. I think Jon Matlack was on that staff if my memory serves me correctly. I always felt the really good lefty at SA reminded me of him. Big and tall lefty with a slow delivery but the ball got on you quickly. He may not have been in 69 but in that time era.

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  32. I’m really happy for George Springer. I got to watch almost all of his home games here in Storrs when he was at UConn.

    He was a World Series MVP for the Astros and then he sighed that big FA contract with the Blue Jays and pretty much failed to deliver until this year.

    He’s sitting on a .300-.400-.500 season. That’s a .300 batting average, .400 on base percentage, and .500 slugging percentage. Those numbers make for a fantastic season!

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    1. Springer has had a good career, and he’s putting up some crazy numbers at age 35. But that 6 year deal with the Jays has largely been a push (which is better than a loss I guess) and his defense has gotten way worse. He needs to be a DH.

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    2. I’ll say it. McGarry should be placed on the off-season 40 man roster. The Phils aren’t deep on pitchers who can put up that stat line. More to the point, the 26 year of McGarry is not older or otherwise less attractive elsewhere than other pitching prospects the Phils might safeguard.

      McGarry might have a < 20 % of being taken in the Rule 5. Other candidates have even less chance. If the Phils need to move a Noah Hoffman or Alan Rangel to free up a space, you do it with no questions asked.

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      1. Agree on the 40 protection. Though I believe some of the lower standing teams …Rox, Pirates, WSox, Twins, O’s, even the Nats….will take a chance on him. What do they have to lose!

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      2. Agreed – Rangel and Hoffman are career AAAA players – guys who shuttle back and forth among AAA teams and between organizations. Neither appears to be anything special or worth protecting. It’s not a close call.

        On McGarry, I don’t know – I’d need to look through their list of potential 40-man roster candidates and see where he falls. He’s a complete wild card in every way, which is crazy after 5 years in the organization – but he is.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. I don’t know if these columns will hold up. These are the first-time, Rule-5 eligible players this offseason. Kerkering and Kemp, if not on the 40-man roster, would also be first timers this year.

          Dallas Jack RHP REA
          Harper Daniel RHP LHV
          Fausnaught Braden LHP REA FS IL
          Thompson Paxton RHP JER
          Rao Alex RHP JER 60-IL
          Walling Andrew LHP LHV
          Ricketts Caleb C REA
          Biddison Nick OF JER
          Fergus Cade OF REA
          Wilkinson Danny LHP JER
          Karaffa Nathan RHP JER 60-IL
          Rincones Gabriel OF LHV
          McFarlane Alex RHP REA
          Moore Robert SS LHV
          Dissin Jordan C JER
          Pulido Danyony RHP CLR
          Painter Andrew RHP LHV
          Ottenbreit Micah RHP JER FS IL
          Pena Jose RHP JER
          Heredia Raylin OF JER

          There are another 40-plus players who are Rule 5 eligible who have been exposed in previous years. Most won’t get a second thought. But a few notables are McGowan (FS-IL this season), Saul Teran, Felix Reyes, Griff McGarry.

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  34. This year McGarry has averaged 13.3 strikeouts per 9 innings. For his career, he has averaged 13.2 strikeouts per 9 innings. That is a rare skill. He should be on the 40 because there is a CHANCE — not a guarantee but a reasonable chance — that he can reduce the walks per 9 innings down to 3 or 4, instead of the 5.3 he averaged this year. And if he does that, he’ll be a valuable contributor for the big club.

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