Phillies Discussion 8/1/2025

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The Phillies started their road trip by taking 2 of 3 games from the Yankees.  Then choked in Chicago losing 2 of 3 games to the White Sox, one of the worst teams in the league.

They came home to an off day and PoBO Dave Dombrowski and his staff became the main attraction as local baseball media and Phillies fans fixated on the trade deadline.

This is your Phillies discussion.

The Phillies successfully upgraded their bullpen with the acquisition of Twins’ closer Jhoan Duran.  They later completed a deal that added another platoon partner to their outfield in the person of Harrison Bader.  They also traded for a recovery project by getting pitcher Matt Manning.

They DFA-ed RHPs Devin Sweet and Brett de Geus to make room on the 40-man roster.  They optioned CF Johan Rojas and placed RHP Daniel Robert on the 15-day IL to make room on the active roster.

The Phillies activated a minor league player from the 60-day IL and then transferred another player from the 7-day IL to the 60-day IL.  They have 14 minor league players on the 60 (the limit is 15 stateside) and 10 on the Full Season IL (no limit).  These players do NOT count against stateside, minor league player limits.

I have the Phillies with 154 players activated on stateside rosters (plus the 24 players I counted above plus a player on military leave).  They have 17 players left unassigned, 16 draft picks and one UDFA.  They have 15 days from the date they signed drafted players to assign them to a roster.  The UDFA should already be assigned.  (Note that transactions are sent to the MLB main office.  They don’t always keep up with all the transactions they receive.  Good interns are hard to find?)

Important Dates

  • April 4, 2025: MiLB roster limits decrease from 175 to 165 players
  • July 24, 2025: End of FCL regular season
  • July 28, 2025, 5:00 p.m. ET: Deadline to sign some 2025 draft picks
    • Deadline applies to players drafted out of 4-year colleges and HS
    • Players drafted out of JUCO are under a draft-and-follow policy, they can sign between the end of their JUCO season and the beginning of next year’s Draft for up to $225,000.
  • July 31, 2025: MLB trade deadline at 6:00 P.M. EST
  • August 12, 2025: Final day to assign draft picks to a roster
    • Draft picks must be assigned to a roster 15 days after signing a contract
    • UDFAs must be assigned to a roster when they sign a contract
  • August 15, 2025: Date prospects can be promoted and still retain rookie status
    • A player retains rookie status if he does not exceed 45 days on the active roster
    • A player retains rookie status if he does not exceed 130 at bats
    • A player retains rookie status if he does not exceed 50 innings pitched
  • August 19, 2025: End of DSL regular season
  • September 7, 2025: End of Threshers’ regular season
  • September 7, 2025: End of Threshers’ regular season
  • September 14, 2025: End of Reading’s regular season
  • September 21, 2025: End of IronPigs’ regular season
  • Note: These dates will be used unless/until notified differently.

Transactions 

August 2025
8/01/2025 – Phillies placed RHP Daniel Robert on the 15-day IL retroactive to 7/30, right middle finger blister
8/01/2025 – Phillies activated RHP Jhoan Duran
8/01/2025 – Phillies activated LF Harrison Bader
8/01/2025 – Phillies optioned CF Johan Rojas to Lehigh Valley
8/01/2025 – Phillies sent RHP Aaron Nola on a rehab assignment to Lehigh Valley
8/01/2025 – Phillies sent RHP Joe Ross on a rehab assignment to Lehigh Valley
8/01/2025 – Lehigh Valley sent 2B Christian Arroyo on a rehab assignment to Clearwater
8/01/2025 – Clearwater activated LHP Camron Hill from the 60-day IL
8/01/2025 – Clearwater activated RHP Matt Manning
8/01/2025 – Clearwater transferred SS Brady Day from the 7-day to the 60-day IL

July 2025
7/31/2025 – Detroit traded RHP Matt Manning to Phillies for OF Josueth Quinonez
7/31/2025 – Phillies reassigned RHP Matt Manning to the minor leagues
7/31/2025 – Phillies designated RHP Devin Sweet for assignment
7/31/2025 – LF Harrison Bader roster status changed by Phillies
7/31/2025 – Minnesota traded LF Harrison Bader to Phillies for RHP Geremy Villoria and OF Hendry Mendez
7/31/2025 – Phillies designated RHP Brett de Geus for assignment
7/31/2025 – RHP Gabriel Barbosa assigned to Reading from Jersey Shore
7/31/2025 – Jersey Shore activated SS Diego Gonzalez
7/31/2025 – Jersey Shore placed RF Nick Biddison on the 7-day IL
7/31/2025 – Jersey Shore activated OF Jordan Viars from the Development List
7/31/2025 – RHP Matt Manning assigned to Clearwater
7/31/2025 – RHP Sean Youngerman assigned to FCL Phillies
7/30/2025 – Minnesota traded RHP Jhoan Duran to Phillies for C Eduardo Tait and RHP Mick Abel
7/30/2025 – Lehigh Valley transferred RHP Gabe Mosser to the Development List
7/29/2025 – C Yhoan Escalona assigned to Lehigh Valley from Clearwater
7/29/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated CF Brewer Hicklen
7/29/2025 – RHP Brandon Beckel assigned to Jersey Shore from Reading
7/29/2025 – RHP Sam Highfill assigned to Jersey Shore from Clearwater
7/29/2025 – Jersey Shore activated RHP Brandon Beckel
7/29/2025 – Jersey Shore sent C Jared Thomas on a rehab assignment to Clearwater
7/29/2025 – RHP Ramon Marquez assigned to Clearwater from FCL Phillies
7/28/2025 – Phillies sent RHP Ryan Cusick outright to Lehigh Valley
7/28/2025 – Lehigh Valley placed C Josh Breaux on the 7-day IL
7/28/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated RHP Ryan Cusick
7/28/2025 – Reading activated C Lou Albrecht from the Development List
7/28/2025 – Jersey Shore released RHP Josh Hejka
7/28/2025 – Clearwater released SS Cole Roberts
7/28/2025 – LHP Zuher Yousuf assigned to Clearwater from FCL Phillies
7/28/2025 – 2B Tyler Pettorini assigned to Clearwater from FCL Phillies

369 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion 8/1/2025”

  1. I’m glad that Rojas is being sent to LHV. I’m sure that he will play just about every game until the end of their season. This way everyone will get to see if he can hit the ball on a consistent basis.

    If he can be successful in that setting, he might become a trade chip as part of a deal in the off season. This would be good both for himself and for the Phillies. I hope he is up to the challenge.

    Liked by 2 people

  2. Anyone who read the previous discussion would have noted that I included a new entry in the Important Dates section. It was (and still is) in bold text.

    “August 15, 2025: Date prospects can be promoted and still retain rookie status.” It was/is followed by three qualifiers.

    This is only important to teams who want to preserve a prospect’s rookie status so that he will still qualify for the Prospect Promotion Incentive draft pick should he win the ROY award.

    I am not saying that this is why the Phillies are delaying Crawford’s (or Painter’s) promotion. I don’t know if they are even aware of this date or care about it. It’s just something about which I’m reporting.

    Liked by 2 people

      1. We can hope. I’m reminded of a date that Amaro missed when he signed Papelbon. I forget the particulars, but people here remembered it for years. Had to do with timing I believe. Had he waited a week, the Phillies would not have had to forfeit a draft pick. Or something like that.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. Correct, they changed the way compensation worked for losing a player to free agency. Amaro signed Papelbon the week before they changed the rules, and under the new rules we would not have forfeited a draft pick.

          He may not have known what the rules were going to be changed to, but he definitely should have known that they COULD have been changed and just asked Papelbon to wait a week to sign.

          Liked by 1 person

    2. I am sure they are aware of it and it makes sense to wait. They are not in *need* of either player right now. So why burn this opportunity?

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  3. Nola has pitched 3 scoreless innings thus far at AAA. He’s thrown 47 pitches with a BB and 3 Ks.

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    1. If Gamecast is to be believed, he does NOT look ready to come back. He’s barely cracking 90 MPH and he’s missing way outside to righties.

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      1. And of course after I post this, Gameday shows him throwing 93-94 to the next 3 batters. Still not locating well against righties, though.

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        1. Typical first rehab start. That’s why three starts were planned. Control always takes a little bit of time.

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  4. Trenton Guy,

    As of July 5th (I haven’t had time to update my list) about 23 new guys are Rule 5 eligible this season. That’s in addition to anyone who was eligible last year and isn’t on the MLB 40-man roster. Kerkering and Kemp if they are removed from the 40-man roster will be eligible.

    Others include: pitchers – Harper, Painter, Dallas, Fausnaught, Walling, Garrett, Karaffa, McFarlane, Ottenbreit, Pena, Rao, Thompson, Wilkinson, Pulido; catchers – Ricketts, Dissin; infielder Moore; outfielders – Rincones, Fergus, Mendez (traded), Biddison, Heredia, Viars.

    Liked by 1 person

      1. ??? = maybe Daniel Harper. He has a big arm and might have been able to help the Phillies out of the bullpen this season. But a lengthy trip to the IL early in the season (about8-9 weeks) and a return trip a couple weeks ago slowed his further development. The IL time might discourage other teams from selecting him, but you never know.

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        1. Marsh, Casty, Crawford-assume if called up in the next two months, Kemp-also assume protected as an OFer……..what if they pick up Bader’s option. And he decides to take the $10M, -though I think they should let him go at that price, and then finally there is Rojas. If they decide to protect Rincones, they may just DFA Rojas.

          Liked by 1 person

          1. Bader has a mutual option which almost never gets picked up. And as much as we like Bader now, he has a career major league OPS of .706 and he’s already 31.

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            1. Yeah…I do not see them even going in that direction. Now they will let him go to free agency , and if he isn’t picked up by June 15th, they could try to resign him for $2M or $3M if the current OFers are not working out or injuries happen. I think they are restricted from signing him out of ST thru June, since they declined the option, and will have to wait until the June date.

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  5. I’m still hoping that Kepler has a short leash and that Crawford stays ready to go up. He will play LF with Rojas there.

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  6. Nola is done at LHV for today. Relieved by Ross who pitched one inning, gave up a hit, no walks and two Ks.

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  7. Ciada,

    Yes, I’ve seen Crawford play. He looks like a fine centerfielder to me. I don’t think he’s as good as Rojas, but that’s a moot point now. I have known for a while now that the Phillies see him as a corner rather than a centerfielder defensively. That probably decreases his trade value slightly. But if the Phillies think that, then I’m sure teams that still have scouts (and they all don’t) would have reached a similar conclusion.

    While he has played LF just 18 times in his career, all 18 have come this year. He is likely still seeing most of his time in CF because he is still better than the options in Allentown and/or the Phillies are hoping that continued play there will help him read, recognize, and route better.

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  9. ciada,

    I believe the Phillies would not be able to trade a QO accepting player until after June 15th unless the player gave permission. The following is from the current CBA,

    ARTICLE XX—Reserve System
    B.  Free Agency
    (6) Miscellaneous
    (a) Any Club signing a contract with a Player under this Article XX(B) after the expiration of the Quiet Period described in subsection 2(b) above may not assign his contract until after the next June 15. However, notwithstanding the foregoing, such contract may be assigned for other Player contracts and/or cash consideration of $50,000 or less prior to the next June 16 if the Player gives written consent to such transaction.

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  10. Here I was following the game on game day and all the time it is on NESN so I got to watch inning 5. Robertson came in and faced 7 batters: 1B, (SB), GO, 2B, K, BB, 3B, K. He threw 30 pitches and let me tell you, all the balls were hit hard. If he’s working on stuff which I hope, fine. If not, yikes.

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  11.  Thomson indicated today that when Rojas reports to Lehigh Valley, He could spend much of his time playing in a corner outfield spot. Though Rojas is a superior defender than Crawford, Phillies may want Crawford to continue his defensive development in CF. I guess will know for certain very soon, starting tomorrow vs the Red Sox affiliate.

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    1. Jim I was trying to find. Catching prospects. Do you see any? I was looking at Dsl

      Which I have no clue about

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      1. Trade for either Dalton Rushing of the Dodgers or Carter Jensen of the Royals. Dodgers would not part with Rushing this week. Both could be ready to move up to full time MLB playing time. Both will cost prospects. Phillies really have no one who will be ready to catch in the majors in their system for at least 4 years they way i see it. May have to go the way of the Todd Pratt/Chris Coste days if JTR does not come back.

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        1. It’s a near given now that Realmuto will be re-signing with the Phillies, especially with Tait out of the picture. How many years will he sign for is the question, and yes, I said years.

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  12. This is year 3 for Rojas. His career major league OPS is .633. He’s pre-arbitration for 1 more year so that’s good, but we all know who he is by now: a backup OF. In 2026, it should all be about Justin Crawford.

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  13. What an emotionally draining game. But awesome start for the new guys. CBP is gonna have fun with Duran’s entrance for the next few years.

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      1. Watching a relief pitcher start off at-bats with a pitch in the zone was a shock, to be sure. We’ll all just have to learn to live with it.

        Liked by 1 person

          1. I was certain with the entrance last night that the bugs on the screen with Duran and Duran were Romus and Rocco. Moving really well to the music. LOL

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    2. Get used to it.. that is the way this team is designed. Superb pitching, with just enough hitting + Schwarb Bombs

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  14. I was at CBP last night. Great win, and important because the odds of bearing Skubal as slim.

    I was very happy for Kemp, and relieved that Topper pinchhit him and Bader last night, after seeing Gelb post “what the hell are the Phillies doing with their outfield?” on Bluesky after his article on its usage going live. I imagine Kemp might have been trying too hard after the 2-dinger day in NY. The bloop single then relaxed him enough for the scorching drive down the LF line to tie the game again. He seems to be a fan favorite now.

    Of course, the big thing was the Durantula Experience, which was the most fun at CBP in ages. I was hoping they’d let him do the whole dramatic entry thing here, and the crow was ready to whip out their phone lights, with a FANTASTIC video of a giant tarantula walking through flames. Wow. Electric

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    1. Taryn made comment that Topper stated these next 6 games would have platoon in CF and LF. So, I guess it will be Bader and Otto tonight. Hope they contribute like last night.

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    2. Told ya’ll we needed somebody out there in the 9th that would make the hitters pee their pants somewhat.. there it is.. now i hope the offense keeps smacking the ball around so well we don’t need to see him often or ever.. don’t need to burn that roman candle out in august

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  16. Kemp…..needs 12 more PAs to reach 150PAs…..which is usually the magic number from a SSS to what to expect from a hitter…current OPS.712. He will be facing probably the best LHP in the game today…tough task for him.

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    1. Thomson keeps doing the platoon thing and the LH part of it continually comes up small. Only Harper & Schwarber* contribute in a positive manner and they are everyday players. 8 hits, 2 (1)* by LH bats. …….. just play who is hot, as soon as they bring in a relief pitcher the scheme is shot anyway.

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    2. I think it’s still too soon to tell how he’s going to be as a hitter. He has the power but you can see the gears turning in his head when he hits so I’m hoping that he can get better at that. 6 walks/38 Ks is not a good ratio.

      My main concern is his defense. He has the arm for 3B but I don’t think he has the glove or the range. His best position is likely LF.

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      1. Kemp/Marsh in a platoon for LF with Crawford in CF for 2026, I think I’m good with that. Casty in RF is a different story.

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        1. I’ve been hoping for awhile, but maybe this offseason we find a taker for Castellanos. Even if we eat $15M, lets just move on already.

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  17. Jim I know Miller is young for Double a. But has he ever shown at any level. That he could hit maybe I am missing something.

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  18. Red Sox were on a streaming service last night so NESN showed the entire doubleheader of LHV-Worchester. And to boot NESN2 played the Yard Goats versus Reading.

    Got to see Miller for the first time. He played incredible defense and hit the ball hard and drew a walk. He has a good eye. Need to remember he is really young for every level he plays at.

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        1. ……. besides that you have Castro up there. Right now, both are underperformed. Is it time to cut bait with Castro? Miller has a 31% K rate …. I leave him at AA and only send him up for a cameo if I’m entertaining the thought of releasing Castro.

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  19. Saw this in the Longenhagen chat on Fangraphs and the part I bolded is a little concerning:

    “Jackson: When does Crawford get the call up? They hinted at bringing him up, but also said they’d want him to get regular at bats which seems hard unless they move Rojas/Kepler/Marsh around…I guess the alignment of the outfield is just very confusing to me after the Bader trade

    Eric A Longenhagen: I could see them bringing him up late to be a runner and defensive replacement, but that guy’s going to get worked by big league velo if you ask him to hit every day.“

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    1. In an interview Kemp said the single biggest adjustment has been that everyone throws hard.

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        1. i really think, baseball has pass me by. In what universe is a hitter who walks. Steal bases. Creates havoc on pitchers and defenses. Not a good thing to have.?

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          1. You can’t steal first base. The question is will the hit tool translate. I believe it will. I believe the comp for Crawford is Chandler Simpson.

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            1. If Crawford plays corner OF I can see Kwan being a possible comp. He hasn’t struggled at any level and at a young age for that level. I think the man continues to develop and I’ll take his pedigree anyday.

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  20. And then later in the chat there was another Crawford question:

    “chooch: Crawford isn’t ready for the majors, correct?

    Eric A Longenhagen: Arrow way up on defense for me, but as a hitter I think not.

    Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe if you want a nine-hole hitter creating some slash and dash action, fine.”

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    1. In the end, nobody really knows how it work out. Once Crawford gets up here, he’ll need to make the proper adjustments to stick.

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    2. my opinion on Crawford,

      He has hit over .320 at every level he has played at, he is hitting. 330 now and .400 plus against lefties.. 34 SBs

      Does he have an all star arm like acuna, no

      Does he hit HRs enough, no… Rod carew averaged 5 hrs a season, big deal, not every player is a masher, speed is his weapon.

      The ONLY way you are going to know if he will work at MLB level is to play him. He has nothing left to do at AAA…

      you put him in the 8th or 9th spot on lineup and let him set the table, would rather see him hit than Kepler, Rojas or stott all day long…

      just my opinion, but I think they are going to concentrate on marsh, Bader and kemp due to the playoff run. Maybe a call up after August 15 to protect rookie status and arbitration years.

      BTW .. it feels awesome to have a legit closer now , and Nola looked good yesterday

      Liked by 1 person

  21. One more about a Phuture Phillie:

    “DF: Thanks for the chats! Longer term concerns w/Aroon Escobar, or just normal prospect volatility?

    Eric A Longenhagen: I like him, don’t know if there’s enough power for him to be an impact guy, have more of a stable 45 on him right now. Good player, guy you win with, not a star.”

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  22. Whenever I read these articles from so-called talent evaluators and they definitively say what a prospect is going to be moving forward I think back to Derek Jeter committing 56 errors in a season of A ball.

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  23. I believe I mentioned this to Ruff last evening. MLB guys had Tennessee coach on with them at Bristol previewing the game tonight. Apparently, they have around 100,000 for game tonight. Anyway, players drafted were brought up and Coach mentioned that he believes the SEC pitchers Philles selected are capable of helping the BP this year. He would mean Wood and Bowker. He implied with their age and experience he could see them making an impact. I have only seen Wood, but you do not pitch for Vandy unless some people think you are pretty good. This was just his opinion. He was not referencing any info. I have no idea what plans are but thought I would just toss it out.

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    1. see no situation where the Phillies use 2025 draftees in the pen. I know the national media likes to pump that storyline but not something the team does nor do they really have the need.

      Alvarado will return in a couple of weeks as will Nola and Robertson. That’s 3 more big league arms.

      Liked by 1 person

  24. I thought what the Phillies did with the lineup last night was pretty interesting. Starter was a righty. So they started Marsh and Kepler in the 6 and 7 spot.
    Didn’t split them up. In 7th inning the Tigers brought in a lefty to go left on left. So Phils countered with Kemp and Bader. Kemp has a .968 OPS vs lefties. He gets a hit. Bader actually handles both handed well and draws a walk.

    I think that is what we will see for remainder of this year. That said, Kepler has been poor against both sides pitchers this year so I don’t really understand the argument of starting Kepler over Bader for anyone.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Really thought Kepler was going to get moved on deadline day and then finding no takers, he would immediately be DFA’d. Still think it’s going to happen in the next week or so.

      with the addition of Bader, he and Marsh are redundant.

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        1. For as little as they use him, they could just as easily option Wilson.

          Can’t justify keeping him on the roster to play first base when Harper gets himself ejected with a thin bench.

          Their other two options were to play JT at first with Marchan catching or move Schwarber from DH to 1B and let the pitcher bat if necessary.

          Oddly, Marchan has very little time at first base, a few starts in the DSL in 2016. Nowadays, young Phillies’ catching prospects seem to rack up a lot of time playing first base.

          Liked by 1 person

            2. I thought he was gone for sure but they went Rojas so figured they liked the idea of his possible Slug

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        2. We got Rojas sent down so half job is done. Now, bring up Crawford and do with Kepler whatever can be done.

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  25. I would like to correct a comment I made last discussion.

    I used COTS when reporting that Duran had 3 years of control remaining. COTS still lists Duran as reaching free agency after the 2028 season. Roster Resource and Spotrac both state that he reaches free agency after the 2027 season.

    Duran signed a contract this season that avoided his first year of arbitration. Unless he was a Super Two, 2026 will be his 2nd arb year, 2027 will be his 3rd arb year, and he will be a free agent after the 2027 season.

    Duran accumulated 3.0 years of service time during his first three seasons so he could not be a Super Two. Therefore, I think COTS is incorrect and Duran will reach free agency after the 2027 season giving the Phillies TWO more years of control.

    I apologize for correcting a comment by Guru with incorrect information.

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  26. Jim. I have heard some of the media guys say remainder of this season plus two more years of control on Duran for Phillies. Some of this was when they were discussing he and Miller and said Miller has 4 years. Only going on what I heard mentioned.

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    1. UDFA Tyler Pettorini has been assigned to Clearwater and been in the line up the last 3 games (3-10, 3B, 2 RBI, K, SB). The rest are in a Prospects Draft Camp with several holdovers from the FCL team. I’m sure a lot of the new guys will get promoted to Clearwater before too long. Don’t know who or when, though.

      Liked by 1 person

    2. Draft Camp throwing programs for pitchers didn’t start till 7/25 and to my knowledge no one has thrown a side bullpen session yet. They are eight days in on flat ground throwing. Those who will pitch in games this season will likely throw a side bullpen this coming week and likely at least one live BP after that. Those are spaced at two to three days apart depending on the role envisioned.  It means that it’s not likely any pitcher is in a game prior to the week of 8/11/25 at the earliest.  There are FCL pitchers and rehab guys who are throwing live BP’s  ow therefore they are ahead of the draft picks.

      On the other other hand I would expect some more of the new draft class position players to appear with the Threshers this coming week as they have been taking BP and fielding practice every day since Draft Camp opened. Those who played in the Draft League like Pettorini did are further along and more likely to get in games this season however it’s very doubtful that any of the HS selections will play with the Threshers this year.

      There is zero, none, nill chance that any of this years draft selections are going to pitch for the Phillies in the major leagues this season. 

      Steve Potter

      Liked by 3 people

  28. Hard to believe Skubal was the 255th pick, 9th round by the Tigers in the 2018 draft, out of all colleges, Seattle University. Not even rated in the top 200 prospects for that year.

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    1. they got mixed in first round that year. Great draft. I hate this bullpen. I don’t trust anyone they bring in. Besides duran.plus this manager is terrible

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    2. Romus. They said yesterday that he was actually picked two times. The year before in the 29th round. Did not say who. Must have been before the 20 rounds came to be.

      Can we say late bloomer.

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      1. Yes late bloomer as far as prospects go…..drafted by the DBacks in the 29th rd of the 2017 Rule 4 from also Seattle Univ. and then the Tigers  in the 9th rd the next year from Seattle Univ.

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        1. Romus. At the All-Star game guys were talking Skubal at Seattle and Skenes at Air Force as game starters. Baseball is not an exact science. One thing I have noticed just flipping around channels on Extra Innings is that there are not sure several Undrafted guys on teams but at least some. Of course that can change on a daily basis. Otto on Phillies, Morgan a RP for Padres and there are more I have seen. That may be why those college seniors sign for small bonus hoping simply for a chance.

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  29. Why the hell did RT leave Strahm out there with his pitch count and his inability today to get out of it to face Baez? I can’t figure out skipper out for the life of me. Now the game is pretty much over. We officially have zero 8th inning relievers. It’s middling to Duran.

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      1. Top could be on the bubble this year……team has to go further in the play-offs, and not just past the first round but right up to the NL championship round. If not I think he will be let go.

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        1. Wouldn’t be entirely surprised to see Topper leave. He was ready to retire when Girardi got fired. Now he’s had his several years of being a manager and the time might be right, from his perspective, to go home and enjoy a life without the daily grind and travel. And, yes, it would be good to have a manager make better decisions on pitchers during games. On the other hand, he is good at keeping the clubhouse together and players upbeat, which might be more valuable a contribution than most managers make. Think Girardi.

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        2. I’m probably as guilty as anyone for breaking the seal on criticizing Thomson directly a couple of weeks ago. Since then, I’m reminded of some things that should have tempered my critical reaction.

          It’s easy to focus on Thomson. Especially for us older fans who remember when a major league manager was responsible for setting the pitching rotation, making the starting lineups, and all in-game decisions. Thomson and almost all today’s managers don’t get to make many if any of the old decisions.

          Teams, including the Phillies, have huge analytics staffs that submit the starting lineup, choreograph all possible relief pitching scenarios, ditto for in-game replacements. These are submitted as suggestions to the manager but in reality, managers are becoming mostly just figureheads. Their value to a team is in how well they can handle the media in post-game interviews and press conferences.

          When the time comes, the axe may very well fall on Thomson. Not because of merit, but because it’s easier to replace one manager than $200,000,000 worth of players. Perhaps some of the analytics staff should also be sent packing.

          Liked by 2 people

          1. Rocco is probably right …. the game has passed us by. After ABS is implemented, next an electronic device that produces tickets will tell the bench coach who to play where and when to pinch hit and what to do in the bullpen. Evolution of the game …. puke!

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            1. The analytics people are already telling the coaches these things. BTW, I may be old, but I am totally in favor of the ABS. I’m so tired of umpires affecting at bats with a bad call that swings the at bat in favor of one of the participants. I remember watching Phillies/Braves games back in the nineties when the umpires gave Maddux and Glavine a much bigger strike zone then they gave our pitchers. ABS will level the playing field with the same strike zone for all.

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          3. Exceptionally worded and put into context Jimmy and I’m no huge fan of Thomson.

            In fact Friday night when he goes all the way out to confront the 3B ump I thought he should of got himself tossed there.

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  30. We can trash Bohm all we want but he definitely makes that play that Kemp muffed. You’ve GOT to make that play!! First out in the inning, Wheeler on a roll after the two homers, and he probably gets out of the inning unscathed.

    The more we see of Kemp at the hot corner, the more he shows that he’s not a major league third baseman. I like the kid a lot but the position is too difficult and important for him to play. Will be glad when Bohm gets back there.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. My how things have changed. A couple years ago many, maybe most, of us thought Bohm would never make an acceptable defensive third basemen.

      As for Kemp, we all seem to like the kid, but he might not be the guy we hoped he would be. However, I’m in favor of giving him more time to adjust and left field sounds like a reasonable place for him to spend time between at-bats.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Kemp will probably be more of a bench player, fourth outfielder type in the near future….

        BTW I am a Bohm fan, just needs some consistency at the plate

        Liked by 1 person

        1. While it’s always possible, that, out of nowhere, Alec Bohm takes a huge leap forward at the plate, I think he is exactly what he has shown and is always going to be. An okay to good player (it depends on the year) at third and at the plate and a guy they really should not be thinking about giving a long term contract.

          Kemp, on the other hand, has the ability to grow and become a righty power bat. And, if he’s not quite that, then he becomes a cheaper replacement for Bohm at third. I think they really need to give Kemp a chance to grow and become one of the righty bats they need going forward.

          Liked by 1 person

      2. Beginning to look like he is a left fielder, looks very uncomfortable @ 3rd.

        Bohm, won’t be worth the money his agent will want. So, we will need to find one.

        Like

        1. Otto will struggle glove side at third base on balls where he has to move – doesn’t have quick feet.  That being said neither does Bohm but he’s turned into an adequate defender by learning angles and with positioning as taught by Coach Dickerson. Otto has the athleticism to also do that – perhaps even more so than Alec.  I don’t think D is a big problem if it is further developed by coaching – he’s very capable of making plays as he’s already shown by some of the more spectacular plays he’s made (usually on balls to his right side) – it’s what I saw in the minors (particularly at Jersey Shore when he was there).  It’s always gonna be something he needs to work at (like Alec) to find his niche and confidence to handle defense but I believe he’s very capable of doing so as do many scouts who’ve seen him.  

          Steve Potter

          Liked by 1 person

            1. Agree, me too, I think he looks comfortable there and his speed has allowed him to make a few nice plays there!

              Like

    1. His command has been off, and that’s what’s really been hurting him.

      It better not be a potential trend considering how much money he’s still owed, but let’s face it, even though he could be considered to be a late bloomer (not excessive innings pitched), he’s still 35 years old. There’s only a few active pitchers who got it done in their mid to late 30s and almost all of them will be going to the HOF.

      Like

    3. Biggest thing I have noticed is when Wheeler has made a mistake recently the batters have hit it. Most of his mistakes are pitches center cut in the plate. MLB guys can hit those. At 35 it is difficult to know which you speak on.

      He still had a quality start yesterday. Should have been 3 solo HRs. My concern has been all season is that it seems rare that the Phillies BP guys come in and keep the opponent from scoring. Maybe I am seeing something I do not see.

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    4. He came back from kid 4 before those last 4 games.. life is diff after 1 let alone 4.. i’m sure he gets his isolation time but man all those rug rats.. can’t say life doesn’t seep into work.. not placing any blame or saying 1 thing can cause another, just laying out some none statistic variables involved in the players lives

      lot of little little kids around all of our “stars”

      Like

  33. Approximately 36% of MLB pitchers who throw 96+ mph have undergone TJ surgery. This is based on a study that looked at the relationship between pitching velocity and the likelihood of TJ surgery, according to Fangraphs. The study found that pitchers who throw 95+ mph have a higher incidence of the surgery compared to those who throw slower, with those throwing 96+ mph having a higher rate than those just throwing 95-96 mph. 

    Wonder if Tarik Skubel has had a TJ surgery yet!

    Like

    1. Romus. I had that article and pictures on my phone for quite some time. I have had to delete for space and believe it was one of the casualties. Couple things that come out of it also is that the surgeons are hoping to only do the Internal Bridge now. I heard the other night when Ohtani pitched that is what he had. I had not heard that before. I wonder how many guys presently in MLB have had that? That is the route the surgeons are taking now with these young kids if they can. Save the original ligament and much faster recovery time.

      Regarding Skubal I mentioned to Ruff I can see possible injuries ahead simply because he is an all-out pitcher in his delivery. My grandson is huge Tiger fan. I do not believe Skubal has had TJ surgery, but I may be wrong on that. I have never heard that he has. As the guys mentioned yesterday, he is kind of the Tom Brady of baseball at this time.

      You asked how he was missed. Maybe with his delivery he was really wild at the younger and college level or maybe the velo came later. He gives 100% on each delivery. We will just have to wait and see how he does go forward. Really good right now.

      Like

      1. Yeah Don. His delivery is violent to say the least. For long term, usually not a good thing for his health.

        The internal bridge (brace) is the newest development in that area. Braves’ Strider had it also. But for him it was his second operation on his arm. Some pitchers more look into that IB since recovery is faster. Also PRP is still out there….Nola had his in Sept 2016…and seem to work for him, but not for all pitchers. Nola though is not what you would considered a high velo guy – mid-90s and above on his FB.

        The IB is fairly new, so assume long term data is not yet available.

        Like

        1. From what I have learned this Spring with the grandkids and a couple others I am aware of is that the type of surgery is not know for certain until they are inside to see the damage. You cannot tell definite from the MRI as I am told. My great grandnephew they thought the full TJ would be needed but they were able to do the IB as well. I saw one night on the MLB scroller they were able to do the IB on one of the MLB guys about same time as grandson. Believe it was one of the Nats guys.

          Was this the 2nd TJ on Ohtani as well like Strider? The IB seems to be the hot new thing at this time. Grandson three weeks out is already doing fairly well.

          I too have concerns on Skubal long term. Skenes has a much more fluid or effortless delivery. We will have to wait and see how things play out.

          Like

          1. Yeah was the second for Ohtani also. Healing for the older players may take longer, that is, to get it to the level of performance they were accustomed to in the past prior to the procedure. Medical science for athletes, has come a long way just in the last 10/15 years

            Like

            1. So true on the medical advancements of recent years for athletes.

              One good thing happening now. Mets are getting pounded by Giants 7-1 so far. Mets left Montas give up 7 runs before warming up anyone in the bullpen. Maybe it is a division thing for managers to make sure their pitcher gets in his pitch allotment. Only kidding but Phillies may have chance to get back into first.

              Appears it is going to be 7 teams for 6 playoff spots.

              Like

  34. Romus. Aimed to add. Lots of young kids have TJ surgery of some form. I wonder how the IB procedure is going to do long term. I have not read or heard anything on that topic.

    Like

  35. Don’t look now but with an impending win (and sweep) versus the Yankees this afternoon, the Marlins will be a…..500 ball team. This is not your grandfather’s Marlins. This team is young and athletic and energetic and it’s easy to see why they hung on to their top starting pitchers and bullpen. This year’s MLB is as competitive as I’ve seen in years. It’s wide open and a bunch of teams could win it all. Let’s hope it’s our boys.

    Like

    2. They’ve been that before Ciada. If ownership doesn’t step up to compliment that roster with $$$ or if they cannot attract FA’s they will only be able to go so far.

      Like

  36. Ross pitched another scoreless inning this afternoon at LHV giving up one hit. Not so good for Robertson. He pitched an inning and gave up 3 runs on 3 hits, just like he did this past Friday. I hope that’s not $6M down the drain.

    Like

    1. We will see with Robertson but guy hasn’t pitched in a game all year. He’s early in ST vs guys who’ve been playing for months. Will take some time.

      Like

  37. Ross pitched another scoreless inning this afternoon at LHV. Robertson also pitched an inning and gave up 3 runs on 3 hits.

    Like

    1. That was crazy and we definitely benefited some in Morton’s last inning too.

      In my mind its unacceptable to miss some of the calls that ump did late…

      I think there is something better than ABS out there. There has to be a way to have the home plate ump wear a device that receives a vibration on tone to an ear piece signaling a strike.

      Like

        1. I was thinking more of an adjustable electrical stimulation collar for training canines …… as in beezappppp!⚡️Zeus

          Liked by 1 person

        2. I was thinking more of an adjustable electrical stimulation collar for training canines …… as in beezappppp!⚡️Zeus

          Like

  41. Griffin Burkholder…a 2nd round pick who just cannot stay healthy….will be two years in the org., and has played in 35 games at the low A level…turns 20 in a few weeks. Next season he needs to remain healthy, becomes pivotal for his development.

    Liked by 1 person

  42. Well I hope you guys captured your winnings Friday night. What an incredible experience that was for my wife and I and our group of friends.

    Starting with Ed and Jimmy it just set the table for some great theatre. And Duran’s entrance was like nothing I’ve ever seen at a game.

    The only issue I had is that Thomson has to go out there after BH gets tossed and make a spectacle in support of his guy. What a meek performance by him.

    Last for as much crying as I did over the years about Kyle batting LO Turner is really starting to irk me more in that roll. His swing decisions must be in the lower third of the league.

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    1. After Turner’s last AB last night, I am thinking…..this guy really is not a $27M AAV player, and no less, for the next eight years. Because of the guaranteed length, he should be 20 to 25% less AAV. Or the length at that $27M AAV, should have only been a total of 7 years, not 11.

      My goodness…..don’t they use any good judgement in that front office when it comes to finances!

      Liked by 1 person

      2. I’ve been banging this drum for like forever. You give a guy an 11 year deal at age 30 at a taxing position like SS and you’re just asking for trouble.

        Jimmy Rollins was finished at age 36. Derek Jeter was in a steep decline by age 36.

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        1. I think its as simple as Bryce gets what he wants. I’m sure in open water DD and Middleton don’t make that move but they were close to shore when the deal got done and likely felt he was the missing piece to a WS after 2022.

          For better or worse JM loves BH. He gave him 13 years and loved that Harper didn’t even ask for an opt out. Over paying for Turner (BH’s favorite person in baseball) was logical albeit illogical for many.

          Whatever that portends is up to the individual fan to figure out but I’ll never bash the FO on the Turner signing.

          We should all probably prepare for a Schwarber overpay too…

          Liked by 1 person

        2. I’ve made this argument before that the length of the contract is meaningless for large market teams like the Phillies. No one expects the players to perform to value at the end, the goal is to manage the AAV year over year.

          Soto got 15 years, Vlad jr. 14, Tatis jr. 14, Betts 12, etc. Do the Mets, Jays, SD, or the Dodgers expect those guys to be good for the entire term of deal? Of course not.

          What they want is to fill their rosters with as many star players as possible within the limits of their budget with the understanding they will always be carrying some dead money. It’s the cost of shopping at the top end of the FA market.

          Other option is to just never sign the best FA’s or be the Rays or Cleveland hoping your player development system can keep up with your FA turnover.

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          1. I disagree….case in point the Angels. The excessive length of contracts put teams in an abyss in which it takes longer to climb out of. Most players age rapidly after their early 30s….WAR reveals that. The Phillies are counting on Turner, Nola and Harper to be outliers and that they remain the same players going forward….good luck with that.

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            1. The Angels payroll is $200 million. Yes, that’s above average but they are not at the top-end of the market. They are actually only 3rd in their own division so they are not a top market team. They are the Phillies from 6 years ago, afraid of jumping those pesky tax thresholds.

              Also, their only long-term deal was Trout. Rendon was for 7 years which was a disaster from year 1. That’s not a problem with a long-term deal; that’s just a bad player signing.

              But your last statement misses the entire point. The Phillies do not expect Harper, Nola, and Turner to be the same players going forward. They expect they will be overpaying them similar to what’s happening today with Realmuto. He’s still production, just not at $24 million per season value.

              What they expect is that they will have new players in place of Castellanos, Walker, Wheeler, etc. who are top end performers at their salaries that will keep the team competitive.

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            2. Look at it this way. The Angels could have Harper, Turner, and Nola on their payroll today and they would still be under spending he Phillies by about $50m per season.

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            3. it will be difficult to have new players in place in 4/5 years….when I am sure Turner and Harper will be in decline…..then possibly also Schwarber when he resigns this fall for 5/6 years…they are cemented into their positions for the life of their contracts. And will they let Marsh, Stott and Bohm all walk…..or will they also get 5/6 year deals–which can happen in the next few years.!

              Look I know the Phillies are aware of their star players depreciation over the next half-decade or more…and they are willing it seems to let it play out. I think Middleton is of the mind-set, he does not want to see 2012-2018 play out again.

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            4. Why? In 4/5 years hopefully Crawford is in CF, Miller is playing 3b, and Painter will be leading the rotation. They will have signed another FA or 2/3 to fill holes at C/RF, in the rotation, bullpen and Turner, Harper will be overpaid veteran role players and elder statesman.

              They will still have $200 million plus available to spent on guys not named Harper, Turner and Nola.

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          2. Yes, there will always be under performing payroll on the roster, we agree on that. Every roster will have that.

            The issue now is how much under performing payroll you can have AND be an elite team.

            First, the amount of AAV being thrown around now is the most it has ever been. So when you have $50M or even $75M under performing, that’s a lot. Now, it won’t be so bad if the payroll is crazy high so that the under performing payroll is a manageable percentage of the entire team salary.

            Second, I don’t believe the payroll will be crazy high in the future. MLB is headed to a stoppage because of large team payrolls, and if there’s no cap, you can bet that there will be more onerous penalties for going over tiers in the future. For example, doubling or even tripling the tax payable if you go over $300M.

            For this year, you can argue that only Nola and Castellanos are giving no value to the Phillies so that’s about $44M. Clearly the Phillies are absorbing that. Now what happens if Trea goes into the tank next season? Now it becomes $71M under performing and you’re wondering if the Phillies can be a championship caliber team. And the Phillies really didn’t want to go over the next tier (although they just did by signing Robertson) but I don’t think that’s their plan when the season starts.

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            1. Well, we first disagree on who’s providing “no value” so that will always be a matter of opinion. War lords will argue that Castellanos is providing no value based on his WAR but he’s the 4th best hitter on the team right now which certainly has value.

              As to future payrolls, who knows what will happen after 2026. I seriously doubt the players will give in on any type of hard salary cap so at most, the tax penalties will become more severe at the highest levels of spending.

              If that happens, then maybe teams will moderate spending or limit 10+ year contracts but I doubt it. Only way that happens would be for the players to capitulate on contract lengths, which is what happens in the NHL.

              I do expect there to be changes related to deferred money contracts but that won’t impact the Phillies.

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            2. 0 War still has a value associated with it, you can’t simply just write off the entire $ amount when the result is 0. Surely you would at least need to use the avg salary for the posoition to get your baseline to provide 0 War then get the difference to see what is lost when a player simply plays at even?

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            3. I think we all agree that Castellanos should be a DH. Now if you’re a team next year looking for a DH, and if Castellanous was a FA, would you sign him as a DH? And for how much money? There’s his value. If he is signed as a DH, I’m guessing it won’t be much.

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      3. So with a failed Didi Gregorius and Stott playing out of position, we all agreed we needed a big SS. We had our choice of Correa (big money + injuries), Dansby Swanson (smooth glove, not much hit), Xander Bogaerts (big money and even bigger decline) or Trea Turner. The team was/is ready to win…. what were the other options at that time?

        Just like this past offseason: yes, I wish they addressed the bullpen better, but with whom? Hoffmann hasn’t been “lights out.” Estevez seemed to be a very hittable 98-99 mph and it didn’t seem like he would’ve fit in here. But I remember a lot of people banging the drum for either Kirby Yates or Tanner Scott. Looking back, I’m ok with us going this route.

        It’s easy to complain, but let’s not forget how we felt when these decisions were made. The window is not. Wheeler is done soon. Harper, Turner and Schwarber will be exiting their primes soon. JT (everybody agrees in decline) has no replacement in sight… So I’m fine with the window being 2022-2027. That should be 6 solid years of having a real shot at a world series. Yes, we want to be there every year, but with the stupid money, we should always at least be competitive.

        The biggest complaint I have had was Nick Castellanos. He has offered very little to the Phillies. He hits fastballs and mistakes, which good teams don’t offer too much. We outbid ourselves for a mediocre-at-best player that we didn’t need at the time.

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        1. “Harper, Turner and Schwarber will be exiting their primes soon. JT (everybody agrees in decline) has no replacement in sight”….when that happens, fans have to be prepared for mediocre baseball. It could be the reliving of the 2012 thru 2018 era.

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  44. Over Turner’s last 130 at bats, he is batting .252 .299 OBP with 2 Hrs. He’s in a prolonged slump. At this point, the lineup construction is what it is. You could move Schwarber to leadoff, but then you will just have a hole in the #2 slot in the lineup. There just isn’t a good answer. Crawford? I doubt that he is the answer in his rookie season but certainly hope he can come up and provide a spark…that will be at the bottom of the lineup though. From listening to Ruben Amaro, reading comments here, reading Winkelman, it seems that internally they currently view Crawford as a left fielder. That is somewhat concerning to me…If he is called up. Marsh would play CF. We all know that Marsh is at best average in CF…below in my opinion.

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      1. Agree, gotta think they are still mulling over some outfield adjustments to be made after the 15th, ….. maybe.

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        1. I think not maybe but absolutely they are. I can’t see how it doesn’t end with a DFA of Kepler

          Not sure if they ever put players on the IL who are not actually injured but they should try that on 8/15 with Kepler if they don’t want to release him just yet.

          You don’t have to squint really hard to see they would be better with Crawford than they are with Kepler.

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  45. Once Rob removes his head from his arse and plays Bader everyday in CF I don’t know how one navigates LF. Marsh, Kepler and Crawford all lefty. It wouldn’t surprise me if Crawford is not in their plans for this year at all.

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    1. If the Phillies promote Crawford, they want him to play every day (or at least close to it). If Bader takes CF, there’s no way Crawford is coming up.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. I think that’s right although they may just take a flier on him come August 31, thinking there’s no to the promotion and it could help him and the team sooner rather than later. But agree they aren’t looking to him as any kind of solution for CF this year.

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  46. In the last 4 games Turner is 1-17. The guy amazes me! He can carry a team for an entire week like he did near the end of July and then he goes totally in the tank. Fortunately, like last night, he has been playing really steady defense. What will we be saying about him at the end of this decade?

    Liked by 1 person

    1. That’s how a long season works. Every player goes through stretches where they don’t hit. Juan Soto is on a stretch where he’s hitting .175 in his last 95 plate appearances with 5 xbh.

      Harper had a stretch of 60 at-bats hitting .146. Judge hit .195 over 75 plate appearances in June.

      Fan’s just pick and choose which players they want to gripe about vs. which ones they choose to ignore.

      Like

    2. Should have added that St. Otto is hitting .182 in his last 11 games (10 starts) and that includes 1 game with 2 hrs.

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      1. Otto is still a rookie with a OPS of .690 with only 142 PAs…but comparing him to slumps from mega-stars like Turner, Judge, Soto, and Harper is an accomplishment…..he is in select company.

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        1. No, point is he’s not in select company. He’s just like every other ML hitter who have peaks/valleys. Question with Otto is will he actually ever have some peaks or is it all valley.

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  47. The bottom line is that, even with his ups and downs, Turner is having a really good season and has worked his butt off to improve his fielding, which makes him a much more valuable player. His contract being way, way, way too long is another discussion altogether.

    Like

    1. Definitely agree. There is the large body of work that hopefully is enough to get us into the playoffs and then there will be the SSS body of work that hopefully gets us another ring.

      Where it comes from is anyone’s guess.

      Its inexplainable at times that guys who can ops near 1.000 in the regular season barely give you 700 in the playoffs and vice versa.

      Like

      1. When you’re in the playoffs, you’re going to face elite pitching, that’s a fact. So in a 7 game series vs the Phillies, you’ll see Wheeler twice, Sanchez twice, and Duran at least 3 times. Good luck with that.

        But of course, there’s always going to be the unknown guy that can break out and do something nobody saw coming, like Cody Ross.

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  48. Phils should go with Bader in CF, and a Marsh/Kemp platoon in LF.

    Marsh vs RHP this year has a .280/.347/.420 line, for a .767 OPS. Pretty similar to his career OPS of .784 vs RHP. Kemp so far in the majors has a .889 OPS vs LHP. In AAA this year he had a 1.118 OPS vs LHP, over three hundred points higher than his OPS vs RHP. So it looks like Kemp can hit lefties fairly well. Marsh will get 70-75% of the playing time, of course.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. And perhaps Kepler in RF, if he’s still on the roster, late in the game for defensive purposes.

      Like

  49. The Phillies have signed Lou Trivino to a minor league deal. Trivino pitched for the Giants at the start of the season then was signed by the Dodgers when he was outrighted and elected free agency. He had a 3.76 ERA with the Dodgers but also a .293 batting average against (BAA).

    Another project? He had TJ surgery in early 2024.

    Trivino was traded at the deadline by the A’s to the Yankees in 2022, probably as a throw-in with a plus-6.0 ERA and went on to a 1.66 ERA/.222 BAA in 21.2 innings over 25 appearances.

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  52. I see that there is some angst over a possible/probable lengthy contract extension to 32-year-old Kyle Schwarber. I share that concern, mostly over cost rather than length.

    DH-ing adds years to a player’s career. David Ortiz, Edgar Martinez, Frank Thomas, Paul Molitor, Harold Baines, and Jim Thome are a few who extended their careers as DHs and played until 40 or 41 years of age. Most were still productive in their late 30s. Ortiz was the unicorn of the bunch. He posted major league leading stats as a 40-year-old with 48 doubles, 127 RBIs, .620 SLG, and 1.021 OPS. He stole 2 bases in 2 attempts, walked 80 times in 626 plate appearances, struck out just 86 times, and hit 38 HRs. His batting average was .315. He was an All Star, finished 6th in MVP, and was a Silver Slugger.

    And he retired after this pretty good season.

    So, Schwarber for 5 years shouldn’t be too worrisome (his age 33-37 years). He reported in the best shape of his Phillies career this past spring. He’s only batting, not expected to play the field too much. He should (could?) provide 5 productive seasons. The cost is the concern. $25M/year for offense the Phillies will have a difficult time replacing seems reasonable. Are we/they comfortable going that high or even higher?

    BTW, 5 years might line up with when Harper might have to move off first base to the DH spot.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. That’s my only concern with resigning Schwarber to a long deal. They could really use tha DH slot for Harper in a few years..

      Like

    2. Jim – I feel much differently than you do.

      To me, length IS the key. Kyle Schwarber is going to be worth a big salary at this level of production. He’s a 5+ WAR player at DH, which is huge. My concern is another contract that is too long and strangles payroll in the future like the Turner contract may do for years or the Castellanos contract has done. The problem with the Phillies isn’t big dollar contracts (Zack Wheeler is totally worth what he gets paid), but seriously long and underperforming contracts – those will kill you.

      Like

      1. MLB could do what the NHL will try to do in their next CBA…..restrictions on contract lengths, I think in the NHL they are looking for 7 years max. SO they have a hard cap and want a contract length restriction…….MLBPA, under Tony Clark, will never approve of either a hard cap or a contract length restriction. The NHLPA is not as obstinate in contract negotiations when CBA time come around.

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        1. The NHLPA has a guaranteed 50-50 split of revenue with the league.

          You guarantee the players will get a fair slice of the pie and I’m sure they’d be happy to make some concessions on contract standards. But currently, their only way to get at that money is through their contracts.

          In fact, based on reported league revenues and contracts handed out, MLB players currently get the LEAST amount of generated revenue among the 4 majors sports (at around 44%, whereas the other three are all between 48 and 50%).

          The NHLPA is not as, “obstinate” because their 3 lockouts in 30 years led to what players consider a fair share and therefore easier negotiations.

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          1. MLB players do have the better contract deals, longer in most instances and guaranteed…. plus isn’t it that the MLB players received 47% of total league revenues in 2024?

            Bottom line…the hard cap is the primary difference.

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            1. Yes, they have the better contracts which is their primary (pretty much ONLY) leverage in negotiations.

              If the owners want to shift that towards revenue sharing, I’m sure the MLBPA would be perfectly amenable. Guaranteed revenue sharing would be WAY better for the players. Despite how generous baseball contracts are, you still need an owner to SIGN the contract. And that will always be a gamble for players. And it also leans heavily in favor of a small group of players. So yeah, feel free to switch to revenue sharing and let the talent in the league be paid appropriately.

              But good luck getting the owners to agree to a 50-50 split. They know that would be worse for them.

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            2. There’s some conflicting reports on the percentage it reached in 2024. 47% is the high mark, and would also be the highest in about 2 decades from what I remember. It’s been in decline since the early 2000s.

              It’s also all estimated because MLB teams refuse to make revenue public knowledge. I wonder why.

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            3. Why should the owners make revenue public knowledge……players are contractors……when I hire contractors to paint my house, or replace my roof, they do not need to ask what salary I make….I pay them for their services. Of course the MLBPA raises that question every 5 years. when it comes time for negotiation of a new CBA.

              Liked by 1 person

            4. A big difference between you and the owners is that taxpayers didn’t pay for the construction of your house. So, if owners want to use public funds to build stadiums and buy the surrounding real estate, yeah, make that revenue public.

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            6. In addition to Catch’s point, you’re also making an apples-to-rocks comparison.

              Painters are selling a service. MLB players aren’t selling a service. MLB is selling THEM. Painters aren’t essential to your business. It also isn’t particularly skilled labor.

              There is no MLB without the players.

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            7. To add to Jim’s point about public subsidies and transparency (with which I agree), professional sports teams also usually don’t pay normal business or real estate taxes. The Phillies, for example, seem like good citizens, but they pay a PILOT (payments in lieu of taxes), which is a fraction of what it would pay if it were a department store, a factory, etc. These kinds of things are normally reserved for non-profits.

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            8. We agree to disagree……..I am behind ownership on this…..if they choose to lock out, then that suffices for me. When the average salary in MLB topped $5M and marking a 3.6% increase from the previous year, according to an ESPN report. …and this increase follows a 2.9% rise to $4.6M from the last year…I think it is time for the cap. And when the average NFL salary is approx. $3.2M and the physical dangers to players certainly out weigh those in the MLB, then that furthers makes me lean hard cap.

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          1. I’m not in favor of the owners or the players. I’m n favor of the sport of baseball and the fans whose loyalty makes it go. Baseball has a problem more pronounced than other North American pro sports. There is a gap between the ‘haves’ andthe ‘have nots’, more pronounced than in the NFL, NBA and NHL

            Who will care about baseball if the richest teams consistently rule the roost? I’ll say it again, who will give a flying fig about the outcomes in baseball if the richest owner earns the title each year?

            Competitive balance rules haven’t redressed the problem. If Miami, Tampa, Sacramento/Las Vegas, Pittsburgh, Minneapolis/St/ Paul, Denver, Baltimore.can’t compere, it’s not a 30 team league. The Phils won’t decline the rings if they win it all this year. Nut it would mean mean more if they competed in a sport where more teams competed on equal terms. Because I’m a fan and not an owner r player,I favor a salary cap.

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      2. I agree with you Catch. Imo the risk is length, not AAV. I would be happy with $160/4 for Schwarber. Double his last salary. Heck, I think that I would prefer $150/3.

        Liked by 1 person

    3. Those are fair point Jim. I think ons can me make the case that Schwarber will age well. He is tops in the league in bat speed now, and his power is well past most ballpark fences… so if he regress due to age he should still produce enough that his contract isnt a burden. At least that would be the Boras angle. I would worry about his eye sight. Hope those are still top notch for him, Harper, and Turner. Thats a health aspect many overlook.

      25 mil a year for 5 years woudl be awesome, but im thinking its closer 30. I think he def gets more than Turner. Will see how much he gets… I wouldnt be surprised if it hit 35mil a year. If Schwarber left, a realistic plan could be to trade for Rooker & sign O’Hearn for LF…. Not so sure how realistic Tucker could be but if Schwarber left, I can see the Phils making a run at him… Casty seems like he’s on his last hurrah with the team. Def getting traded in the offseason.

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      1. Yeah, I wrote 25M but have heard rumblings of 30M. I don’t think Rooker is an option. I heard that he has an NTC that wasn’t reported to the contract detail sites like COTS, etc. I also heard that he really wants to play in Las Vegas. If both are true, he can veto a trade or demand a large sum to okay one.

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        1. i still figure they pay him per HR and if they figure length of 5 years and him putting up 200 HR’s in those 5 years he’ll want 200m for 5 years but i’m figuring realistic is $180/5

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    4. If I had a guess Kyle is eyeing a number not necessarily years. Say he wants to get another $150 million out of his career 6/$25 is what you might be looking at.

      I think that is a manageable AAV. Of course you could do deferrals too.

      I honestly believe he wants to finish his career here so he will be amenable to any structure that gets him that number.

      If he wants $200+ million YIKES!

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      1. I agree that Schwarber wants to stay in Philly. He is now a LEGEND in Philly. He will not be in Cincy, Chicago or even NY. I am sure he has a high number in mind. He is in the same dugout with some guys with those numbers. But he is a DH so only speaking of one dimension. I like Jim’s comment about the chance for a DH to age well. Not much wear and tear on the body like a position player.

        I have felt from the beginning that they find an agreement for both sides. If I am wrong and say Cohen gives him the moon, I agree that Alonso is a possible fit.

        I do not see Phillies going over 5 years. But time will tell. Saw a piece on JJ Watt yesterday with advice to Jerry Hones. “Sign your stars early“. Looks a bit late for both teams right now.

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      2. I can’t see the Phils signing him up for 6 years as highly likely. But I could see a higher yearly contract value maybe even closer to the $35-40 million per year. 3 or 4 years with option(s)????

        Anyway the Phils get first crack to sign him.

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      3. Schwarber has said he liked to finish his career at home in Cincy….he is from a place about half-hour north of Cincy, maybe that is a negotiation ploy. Middleton will surely outbid the Reds…whether he accepts or reject the offer remains to be seen.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. I’ve also seen Schwarber say he’d like to stay in Philadelphia, mentioning he and his wife have settled into the area and that his kids are in school and he’d like them to continue their education with continuity.

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  53. Mick Abel’s line for first game at AAA St. Paul:

    5 IP 1 hit 0 runs 2 walks 7 strike outs

    I imagine the Twinks will call him up soon.

    Way to go, Mick. Make us proud.

    BTW Tait is 2-9 with a 2B, 3 Ks in 2 games.

    Liked by 3 people

  54. FWIW…..the value of a 1WAR is now estimated around $8 to 10M in terms of AAV. Though some models within the industry suggest the value is closer to $11M to $12M per WAR. However, when considering the actual WAR outputs of players, particularly those producing 2 WAR or more, the average cost has been observed to be closer to $4.8M per WAR. Hopefully that is clear as mud for you.

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  55. Schwarber is amazing. I remember Reuben Amaro predicting a couple seasons ago that Schwarber would get better as he ages because at the time his bat was too quick. Phillies really need some one better behind Harper.

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    2. Not many great hitters coming into FA after this year, unfortunately. You have Kyle Tucker, a 34 year old Eugenio Suarez, and potentially Bellinger. That’s about it.

      May need to dip back into the trading well.

      As for the rest of the season, our best bet is just that Casty gets hot for the postseason.

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        1. Alonso is getting $30 this year and he has a player option for $24 next year so no doubt he is going to opt out of that…

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  56. Bader locked up the CF job imo. Platoon Marsh (against RHP) and Kemp (against LHP) in left field for the remainder of the year. Kepler is our 5th OF.

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    1. I think this makes the most sense moving forward. Unfortunately probably keeps Crawford out of the major leagues for the remainder of the year unless Marsh slumps or they want to have Marsh take some RF abs.

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  57. On a lighter note, how can Schwarber not want to see for the next few years Duran’s entrance in the 9th. Maybe they can come up with a similar display as Schwarber comes to bat. That would fire the crowd up.

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      1. IMO the best form of baseball is the WBC. Electric baseball. If MLB was played like the WBC, it would see it’s viewership skyrocket. The world has changed Rich. People want energy and entertainment. No one from the new generation likes the old school “unwritten rules” of baseball. They want passion and energy. That’s why the Savannah Bananas are so popular even though it is bad baseball. I am not suggesting that MLB move towards the Savannah Bananas approach. But adding entertainment like the Duran entrance is definitely the right direction.

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        1. v1. Well said. I almost mentioned the Bananas when I posted on Duran entrance. It was in jest, but I could see something similar for Schwarber if he continues this pace. Speeding up the game has helped with the entertainment. One of the things I like when Sosa is in the lineup is the team seems to play with more energy. Energy is infectious.

          If Duran can continue his dominance each game in Philly has the chance of real excitement and entertainment as well.

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        2. Harper also mentioned the need for baseball to come ‘alive’ years ago. Add some spice to the game. Always liked the “Beat the Freeze” race at Braves games on the warning track from pole to pole…..finally someone beat him…a cop. Even a little thing like that liven up fan interest.

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          2. Romus. Several teams have some kind of race around the 7th inning or so each game. Those are fun for the fans. Usually have 4 runners. There is no doubt things have/are becoming more of an entertainment venue. One other thing I have noticed especially this year since I have been able to see more games in the evenings is the incredible number of women and young girls in attendance. I am sure the increased popularity of softball and women’s sports are a huge factor. It is really nice to see. I remember the old black and white shots of just all men standing and cheering on their favorite team. Also, the Phillies ball girls do an excellent job during the games. One can tell they are talented.

            Rocco. Not sure about the pole dance but the Bananas guy may be up to about anything, and they are packing the stadiums. I am sure you guys saw pics of CBP in recent days when they were there.

            Finally, I saw a 4 yr and $140M for Schwarber. Any thoughts. Personally, I think it will be a high AAV and fewer years. But I may be all wrong.

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            1. Don…I think Schwarber will get 5 years, maybe a 6th buy-out year……maybe $28M AAV…in the same ballpark as Turner’s AAV. But he may want to go to Cincy……not sure they can match whatever Middleton offers.

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            2. Predict – Aug 5: Schwarbs resigns with Phils – 4yr / $145M. Phillies were not the highest bidder, but Kyle likes the vibe.

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            1. I know I’m in the minority. I’ve just never been able to wrap my arms around the modern day athletes desire to celebrate the mediocre.

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            2. Because it’s a game and it’s supposed to be fun. I never understood the “unwritten rules” of no celebration. Just put your head down and run the bases. That sounds miserable to me. I would love for pitchers to talk smack after striking a guy out and a hitter to talk smack after hitting a tank. Certainly it can go too far. And sometimes it gets out of control. But the old school mindset of no celebration is boring in my book and I am 49.

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            3. Check out Jimmy Piersall running he bases after his 100th HR…not old school for sure. June , 1963…vs Phils…Dallas Green as the pitcher….he ran  the bases backward. He ran in the correct order, but with his back facing home plate….it was his his unique celebratory statement about the lack of attention given to milestone home runs, specifically referencing the relatively muted reaction to Duke Snider’s 400th HR.

              https://sabr.org/gamesproj/game/june-23-1963-jim-piersall-celebrates-100th-career-home-run-with-backward-trot-around-the-bases

              Liked by 1 person

            4. I get it v1. I have no problem with celebrations. It is a game and it is supposed to be fun. There is no unwritten rule about no celebrations. Players have been celebrating success on the field for decades. Doing a little dance before each base in your home run trot in a game in May seems excessive though. Also, 49 is young. I’m jealous. I think I have chicken in my freezer older than that. Haha. Good chat.

              Liked by 1 person

  58. Just saw Gelb says Phillies not bringing Robertson up at this time. Implies they may wait till roster expansion. What a deal he got. $6M for maybe 1 month. Schwarber needs to find his agent. LOL

    Liked by 1 person

    1. i quess you had to be raised in 60 or 70 to understand no celebration. It was considered by some , rubbing in . Showing off was a sign of disrespect. I remember great players like csonka scoring and just handing the ball to the ref. Times change. I watched the disrespect. In NFL. Standing over a guy you knocked down.As I said before the game has passed me by . I quess hitting a homerun and going to to dugout and guys congratuin g. You isn’t enough. You need to rub it into the other team just like Liam roots for his dad. The other teams kids do the same. Rubbing it in isn’t a trait I would teach me kids. But I am old

      Liked by 3 people

      1. Rocco, I remember how much I hated the celebrations by that Jet after a sack. I think it was Gastineau (?). I remember hating that Favre rolled out into that Giant Strahan (?) for a sack on the last play of the season after his line protected him the whole game preventing Strahan from breaking Gastineau’s record. Recently, I learned that Favre hated that Gastineau was living off the sack record after retiring and wanted to take that away from him. I get that and kinda respect it but can’t help but think that he disrespected his O-line with that move.

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  59. Romus. The IU guys who I have some connections with who know Schwarber and are big Reds fans do not believe he goes to Cincy though he has a home and ties to the area. They too agree with you that Cincy will not bid that high. I think he stays in Philly. The only real wildcard I see right now is Cohen and the Mets. If he wants to bid more than Philly or anyone else, he may. I think both stay where they are now, but I could see Schwarber and Alonso flipping teams. I do not see an opt out. I see a certain number of years at a certain $$$ amount.

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  61. v1 – There’s a difference in the sports. Players go head to head in basketball and football and hockey where they can smack the crap out of each other in the trenches.

    In baseball it comes down to the guy with the ball in his hand to “get back” at the player who talks smack. Maybe Alonzo is right when he says let them fight it out like in hockey.

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    2. Hah….Alonso should know, baseball players cannot get their hands damaged in hand-to-hand combat. Now maybe let them put on the base-running oven mitts and then fight it out, that may work.

      HBP data…..the eight seasons with the highest rates of hit by pitches since 1901 are, in order, 2020, 2023, 2021, 2024, 2022, 2019, 2025, 2018. Notice a trend? In 117 seasons from 1901 to 2017, the hit by pitch rate never reached 0.8 per game (both teams combined). Now it has done so eight straight years.

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    3. yeah but that is what is so beautiful about baseball. you have a ball and try to get me to swing and miss and I have a bat and try to hit it out of the field of play. you vs. me. mono y mono. its awesome. there should be a lot of energy in that matchup.

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  62. There is an article out that says Alvarado can return on the 19th. Says he can go to LHV prior. That may be today. Not sure on that.

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    1. Being out this long it is like spring training all over for him. Though, I am sure he has thrown bullpen sessions with different people, of course cannot be affiliated with MLB, and probably has worked out in a gym somewhere. He is allowed to work out in a minor league rehab assignment after he has served a significant portion of his suspension…when that is , who knows.

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  63. Watching MLB Tonight. Reynolds and Plesac think Schwarber stays in Philly. Ansinger thinks Cubs may be a player. Think his number of 6 and $250 is too high.

    Right now, in their MVP race Schwarber has taken over 1st. Top 3 are all DH guys. Ohtani and Yelich next. Also mentioned Schwarber will be motivated going forward. Now 176 HRs from 500.

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  64. Ricky Bottalico is utterly incredulous that Kepler is in the lineup over Bader, especially after last night’s homer. Of course, many feel that way, but it’s nice to hear a pro say that!

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    1. I would genuinely love to know if it’s Thomson making this call or him being instructed by the FO/analytics department.

      Because whoever is deciding that Kepler has earned ANY starts at this point needs to have their contract reconsidered.

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      1. think about it this way… Kepler signed for 10mil for 1 year… but you can argue he really cost 20mil for 1 year, becasue of the CBT, 3 year % @ 50%. Before they dump Kepler… the FO likely wants to exhaust that dinero. Not saying it’s right but .. that’s really what’s going on imho.

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  65. Romus, we could have agreed to disagree, but then you followed that with the average salaries for baseball and football players. The numbers you started from ESPN were +$5M for baseball players and around $3.2M for football players.

    Let’s take that one step further. I’ll use $6M for baseball and $3M for football.

    A baseball player earns an average of $37,037 per game for 162 games over 6 months.

    A football player earns an average of $176,470 per game for 17 games over 4 months.

    The disparity in a single game between the two sports is clearly in favor of football as they earn 4.75 times what baseball players earn per game.

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    1. That’s not really a fair comparison though if you wanted to keep going, you could break it down by plays, etc. However, football is a much more physically demanding sport and takes a much worse toll on your body. Baseball players maybe retire with arm probelsm whereas football players have traumatic brain injuries. You get paid to play less football games because the human body literally couldn’t play more

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      1. No. This is a classic straw man argument. We are discussing payroll caps, average yearly salary, and average per game salary in a capitalist market. You are trying to distort the discussion with a topic that you think makes your position easier to defend.

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        1. I haven’t taken a position, I’m just saying it’s not that cut and dry. Yes, NFL gets paid more on average per game.

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      2. Baseball players regularly retire with chronic injuries, not just arm injuries. Utley has chronic plantar fasciitis, for example. Prince Fielder literally had to have his spine fused. Catchers are basically guaranteed to need knee surgery before the age of 35.

        And just saying, “arm problems” really undersells the pain some of these guys deal with for the rest of their lives. Halladay’s shoulder pain very likely played a role in his death. He was taking pain medication, and it was in his system when he died.

        I’m not here to say baseball injuries are worse than football or vice versa. But you are severely underplaying how much 162+ games a year takes its toll on players.

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        1. I’m not downplaying it, but that’s not CTE. The physical toll football takes is a different animal entirely

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  66. Romus info, pls. Who is run field on Swb? Says we drafted him I never heard of him. And Jones for that team has monster numbers.

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        2. On the whole, Miller has had a disappointing year, but with some silver linings. Silver lining – he plays shortstop and, apparently, quite competently. Silver lining – he draws a ton of walks – which tends to bode well for future value/improvement. Silver lining – he steals a ton of bases. Silver lining – when he makes contact, the power numbers are not bad.

          The question becomes, as it often does, will his hit tool be good enough to allow him to become a starting regular. At this point, nobody knows.

          Liked by 1 person

          1. Another important plus in his favor…he is facing double A pitching at a younger age than most, turning only 21-years old two months ago. He could start at Reading again next season at 21, and still have a promo to LHV prior to 22 years old. Which I can see happening.

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  69. Okay, Guys – You all know what time it was tonight, right? All together now, IT WAS WALKER TIME. And the 3 platoon guys we like to rag on the most each got 2 hits. Let’s give credit where credit is due.

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  70. Don’t want to get sucked into the MVP nonsense. Remember when Embid went through this – all the discussion was on MVP v. Winning Championship. Get the ring!

    Is it MVP – as in most Valuable player – or is it most Vibe Player?

    If truly Valuable, Schwarbs easily wins. He’s been the consistent leader with injuries (1B), and underwhelming play (LF, CF). Take him away, we’re scrambling for Wild Card.

    But in a league where a guy with less than 5 starts got the All Star nod over Sanchez, I’m not calling Emmanuel Classe to place a bet on Schwarbs.

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  71. There was obviously something mechanically wrong with Marsh’s swing in April this year. He went down to the minors and fixed it. If you remove April’s 0 for 29, his stats for the year are:

    BA 0.303

    OB% 0.356

    OPS 0.815

    k% 23.5%

    BB% 8.9%

    An 0.815 OPS would be 42nd best in MLB. Right between Yandy Diaz and Matt Olson. It would be the 16th best OPS among outfielders, right behind Seiya Suzuki.

    As a benchmark, Steve Kwan’s stat line is.283/.345/.744 OPS

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    1. I think the funniest part is that is his OPS… without power. His power numbers (even excluding April) are well below where they’ve been since he’s arrived in Philly, and I can think of at least 7 times he JUST missed a HR (either being just foul or less than a foot short) off the top of my head.

      I really enjoy having Marsh on this team. There will need to be hard decisions about him as he gets closer to free agency, but you really can’t complain about his overall body of work and his willingness to play whatever role (and position…) the team asks of him.

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  72. After watching Kepler’s post game interviews last night, I’m very happy for him. It’s obvious he has been going through a lot this year and really needed a game like that from a mental standpoint. With that being said, I still don’t believe he should be starting any more games in left field. Topper just got his excuse to continue with this platoon instead of starting Bader every night in centerfield, which I believe is the best option for this team going forward.

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    1. Disappointing and odd year for Kepler…other than HRs…metrics have been well below average, and that HR power is virtually only against RHPs. He may have career peaked two years ago.

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      1. Romus, it’s a curse. Every year the Phillies bring in a veteran “professional hitter,” and every year he doesn’t hit.

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  73. Glad to see tall LHP Mavis Graves turn his season around….last 4 starts have been exceptional, especially compare to earlier starts in May and June. Phillies could see another potentially very good LHP prospect in the system. Bolster the farm ratings and also another trade chip for the FO. Assume he will be pitching in Reading next season.

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  74. As they say baseball is a weird game …

    The Phillies have Walker post 6 shutout innings against a struggling BAL, but has some darn good young players…and Painter, the heir apparent to the thrown… needs 90 pitches to get through 4 innings. 4k 4BB 5h 5R. I didn’t think he would struggle this much, but I guess its now becoming expected do to the injury history & workload.

    And switching topics, but curious to what everyone thinks:

    Who is better …Duran or Miller?

    Duran for me.

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    1. Duran for me, he throws just as hard as Miller but he has that nasty “Splinker” pitch. While the Phillies gave up two very good prospects, the Padres definitely paid more for Miller who I believe has an extra year of control. All in all, I believe we got the better pitcher and the better deal.

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      1. Miller has 2 more years of control vs. Duran but I agree that Duran is probably the better pitcher. Miller has higher K-rates but Duran’s biggest advantage is that his gb% is over 60% so he keeps the ball out of the air.

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        1. IMO, two additional factors separated Duran from Miller……walk rate and arm durability. Miller already has had some issues with his forearm un the past and the A’s were aware of that, and his walk rate/9 is over 4-approaching 4.5…Duran has been under 4. Last thing I want to see from a reliever is to come in and put men on base with walks, especially against teams like the Dodgers, Mets, Padres or Brewers.

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    3. Part of my work team is based in Minnesota. We talk weekly. Duran is really good when he is really good but according to them he like many closers have their moments when they can’t find the plate.

      For the price I’ll take Duran every day of the week and 2X on Sunday.

      But how he performs in the playoffs will be all that matters. The past couple of nights are a great sign which is keep the innings on the high leverage guys as low as possible.

      Its like trying to get to the shore from Philly on half a tank of gas…

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  75. v1 – I guess I wasn’t clear enough with my post. What I meant to say/write was that the “guy with the ball in his hand” could throw at a batter and be protected because pitchers no longer come up to bat.

    Liked by 1 person

  76. Tac – From what I can see is that Miller throws extremely hard but it is pretty straight. Major league hitters pound “straight”. Duran seems to have a lot of movement on his fastball. So, I agree with you. Duran for me.

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    1. I love Duran. If you’re going to trade a haul of prospects, you try to get the best guy. I think they did and it will pay off in ways we cannot even begin to understand yet. Now you’ve got a solid closer in the 8th (Kerkering) followed by a lights-out closer in the 9th. Huge. A big key to the 2008 team was that, if they were ahead in the 6th inning, the game was effectively over and the 8th and 9th innings were locked down completely. The 2023 team makes the WS if we have Duran. I’m serious.

      Liked by 1 person

  77. Player A / Player B

    Hitting line:

    Player A: .285/.346/.746 OPS

    Player B: .253 / .333 / .771 OPS

    Homers: 9 / 13

    Stolen bases: 11 / 10

    DRS +15 / +13

    Player A (Steve Kwan) would have costs us top prospects, probably Aidan Miller. Player B (Harrison Bader) only cost us our 12th best prospect.

    I mean those are pretty comparable productivity with a massive difference in prospect cost. DD did a great job adding value without overpaying for the sexy name. I know that Bader is a rental, and Kwan has 2 more years of control. But that doesn’t justify giving up Aidan Miller imo. If we like Bader, then re-sign him to be our CF going forward.

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    1. I think the fact that Kwan didn’t change teams at all says a lot about what it might have cost.

      Cleveland’s GM seems to operate perfectly for the market he is in. Expectations are typically pretty low.

      In 2024, they averaged around 26,028 fans per game. This was a significant increase compared to 2023, where they averaged 22,643 fans per game. In 2022, the average was 17,050

      That’s not bad on a Payroll right around $100 mil

      Liked by 1 person

    2. Not sure if they will be able to move Casty, but I do think that they will be able to move Taijuan this offseason if they want. They may have to eat a little contract, but he is easily a back end starter for a team and he is on a 1 year contract next year. So if we pay him down from $18 mil to $12 mil, that is the cost of a 1 WAR pitcher. I could see some team biting on that.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. I dunno if they can trade Walker. Their depth isn’t great and they’ll need arms to compete and push Painter. Besides Cabrera they don’t have much in the minors. McFarlane isn’t a starter.

        Walker has been a good soldier. He’s bounced between the pen and rotation.

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      2. Casty’s OPS is 745, which almost exactly matches the MLB average for right fielders so far this season of 744. Does that guarantee him that he will play every game?

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        1. Casty should be a DH. He is literally the worst defender in MLB. He is an average hitter. At $20 mil that’s not a great bargain. Maybe they can trade him to a team that needs a DH and eat half the contract. But they won’t get much value for him imo.

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  79. Romus – He’s talking about the Unbreakable Ellie Kemper from “The Office”. As pretty and adorable that she is, she deserves to be DFAd.

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  80. Our lofty perch as the deepest and best starting pitching in baseball has taken some serious hits recently. Abel traded, Painter struggling returning from TJ, Nola horrendous to start the year then placed on IL, Ranger carrying a 4.42 era in last 7 starts, Luzardo falling back to earth as a 4 and Wheeler having an MRI(which scares the hell out of me). I need some therapy.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I think Painter is tired ……. seems like he throws 90 pitches per outing, but 4 – 5 innings is the length. Getting near the end of the year maybe tiring out.

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    2. If they were smart they would give Wheeler a breather the rest of the month.

      Can’t imagine any games in August are going to be as important as games down the stretch and in the playoffs. And if you don’t have a healthy Wheeler in the playoffs you have 0 chance.

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        1. I’m sure it does and if he were 5 years younger I’d say ok a few days is good.

          Risk/Reward I believe the reward for resting him in August is greater than the risk of him wearing down in September/October

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      3. A lot of August games are against soft teams like Washington and Atlanta. But they also have a 3 -game series in Cincinnati who could be a wild card team (we won earlier series 2-1) and a 3-game series in New York against the Mets who lead the season series 2-4. Probably 2 series where you want a healthy Wheeler available. Give him a breather but schedule some of his starts around these two reams. Make sense?

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    3. I think this is the issue with pitching everywhere. And still we have three starting pitchers with ERAs under 3, another guy (Luzardo) who can be a shut down guy on any day and has tremendous potential, a currently workable #5 (Walker), a former CY Young candidate who has been hurt and has been a solid 2/3 for years coming back soon, with another great arm at AAA who has a bright future (Painter). Most teams would KILL for that arrangement.

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      1. I just feel like we’re using the same paint but with different brushes when describing the current state of our starting pitching.

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    4. This is why talks last month of trading Ranger made no sense. Every team is going to need at least 8 guys to start some games. Phillies have actually been healthier than most teams.

      Everyone is looking for arms that can successfully cover innings.

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  81. I was following painter for two innings. He was at 98 . Throws two fastballs for strikes. Then three straight change up. Goes 3-2 then curve. Only pitch he was getting over was fastball. Really only had control over fastball

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  82. I am anxious for ABS to be implemented, I really am. Not only am I looking forward to the pitch being called correctly, but I firmly believe it will be a tough transition for many players that have “no clue” what a strike really is!

    Liked by 1 person

      2. He did, like DMAR said below he rung Kemp up on ball 4. He had 2 pair of glasses on FWIW …… a case where a guy could use 3 pair!😅

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      3. The ABS initiative may get pushed forward faster after this season. Willing to bet the umpires want it badly, they may be getting tired of all the criticism and abuse.

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  83. i really hate these long term contracts. Boston Signs Roman Anthony to 9 years 130 million could go to 230. Nuts.

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    1. rocco….Braves did something similar with Acuna and Albies way back when…..basically buy-out all six control and then their first two or three years of free agency. Now just hope he becomes a star player.

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      1. It’s a great idea, if the player you sign does not turn into Mikael Franco. Seems like they are making a very reasonable bet on Anthony, although, if it were me, I might want to see a little more before doing a deal of this magnitude (but that’s why the folks in the Red Sox’ front office, and not me, get paid the big baseball bucks!).

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    2. I’d be a little wary handing out nine-year contracts to 21 year old kids. Who do they think he is? Domonic Brown?

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  85. Moffo – The Roman Anthony contract is for 8 years. The AAV is $16.25. I’ve been watching a lot of him on NESN. He’s really good but as the Phillies showed, he has trouble with lefties.

    And to add what oldruff wrote, Nola threw 69 pitches. I would say he pitches one more game (maybe 2) at LHV and then they bring him up. If he can give the team 5-6 innings, that’s great!

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Also, Robertson had 1 inning with 1 hit and 2k’s. Sounds like his velocity was about where he was last year so also getting closer.

      Liked by 1 person

          1. rocco….ready for OFer Dante Nori promo to Jersey Shore for their last 20 or so games in this season, let him get a taste of Hi-A ball before next year? There is that remote chance.

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  86. Big road trip coming up for the boys. I think they will be facing Merrill Kelly, deGrom, and Pat Corbin. All 3 of those guys have been known to give the Phillies a difficult time and the Rangers have plenty to be playing for.

    Arlington is not a place where the Phils have had a lot of success. Opening weekend in 2023 the Phillies knocked out deGrom early but lost 7-11. Then they succumbed 3-16 and 1-2. I hope they don’t get swept this weekend.

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  87. Phillies crush Corbin & deGrom is wearing down as his innings this year equals what he has thrown over the previous 4 seasons combined. We are lucky we dont have to face potential AL CY Nathan Eovaldi

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    1. DeGrom’s WHIP in his last 14 days is 1.452 so yes he may be wearing down. Corbin’s is even worse at 1.875

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      1. For sure, JTR will be long gone by the time Araujo is ready for MLB time…..he is only 17. They may keep him for awhile, build up his case, before they put him on the trading block, probably in three years.

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  89. 13 recently signed picks and a UDFA assigned to FCL roster, only late signee Logan Dawson remains unassigned. Active player count at 166, one over limit. A recent move probably hasn’t reached the Transaction Log.

    Liked by 1 person

  90. Andrew Painter has pitched 83.1 innings this season. His season high was 103.2 innings in 2022, the season before he sat out the 2023 and 2024 seasons due to TJ surgery. He threw just 6.0 innings in 2021 his first professional season.

    I think we’ve reached the point where we can stop anticipating Painter’s debut or any appreciable contribution to the Phillies this season.

    Liked by 2 people

  91. I have come around on Rafael Marchan. I read an article by Tim Kelly of On Pattison where the writer suggests the Phillies acquire Adley Rutschman during the offseason. He points out that although his offense has cratered (my term) he is still putting up solid defense with 7 DRS. Well in exceedingly less playing time, Marchan has 3 DRS. While Marchan’s offense is pretty bad this year, He has had only 21 starts. JT’s offense has picked up, but I have observed that Marchan appears to have a stronger, more accurate arm. His caught stealing percentage of 33.3% is nearly 10 points better than league average.

    I think with more playing time, his offense would tick up and perhaps even the other attributes of his game.

    Additionally, he doesn’t reach arbitration until 2026 and is paid considerably less $780.5K vs, $5.5M. Plus, Rutschman is entering his second arb offseason.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Agree with your assessment of Marchan’s defense. He’s very good. Unfortunately, he’s not a very good hitter — not just this year’s performance, but his minor league stats (career OPS of .656 in AAA) and his metrics like exit velocity indicate that he’s not a good hitter. But a cheap, good defensive catcher is valuable as a backup.

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    2. I love JT and if it wasn’t about $$$ sure keep him around but I’m not uncomfortable moving forward with Marchan.

      Its one thing for a veteran player to still be a productive offensive player with limited ABs but for a young player getting a start here or there its extremely difficult.

      What he might be able to do knowing the job is his might be far better than what we have seen. But the Pitchers have to love him too. That’s a big deal at catcher.

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      1. Still like to see if the Phillies can trade for a catcher with promise, ie Dalton Rushing from the Dodgers or Royals’ Carter Jensen ….both may be ready for MLB time.

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  92. I have always felt that full year numbers for a prospect are not a good way to judge productivity. I prefer to look at progress at a level and give them a pass for any adjustment period.

    Donte Nori is a good example. His second half stat line is .303/.413/.492/.905. With 14 stolen bases. That’s pretty good. I would like to see them promote Nori so he can start adjusting to the higher level this season.

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      1. Assume Miller will start again at Reading next season. Still young for the level at 21 when beginning the season. Expect him to be coming out fast and getting a promo to LHV….I guess that is also what the Phillies expect from him also. His BB rate is excellent at 14%……and K rate at 26% could use a few ticks lower. And I am impressed on his SB skills. In fact thru the whole system the players are encouraged to be aggressive on the base paths.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. Generally speaking an AS MLBer won’t struggle too much in the minors and definitely not repeating a level but if you zoom in he is really not repeating Reading (IMO)

          He did 3 levels last year technically speaking. Low A, High A and 22 PAs in AA.

          I’m still not of the opinion that Miller will become an All Star but I’m also not throwing in the towel on an MLB future.

          He’s sporting a 351 OBP currently and as you call out his BB rate of 14% is promising for a 21 y/o in AA.

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          1. DMAR …… you got me thinking, very dangerous situation.🤔

            When you draft a #1, must he turn out to be an all-star to realize your investment or ….. is it acceptable just to become an average MLB player?

            Carry the thought to #2, #3 etc. What are the expectations?

            Understand there is some riverboat gambling in all of this.

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            1. Drafting high increases the probability of making it to the bigs AND being elite. But the failure rate is still high, that’s why FA exists. You can take any first round draft in any year, there won’t be more than 10 players with > 20 career WAR. 20 career WAR sounds low, but it really isn’t.

              The MLB draft is the biggest crap shoot of the 4 sports. But if a GM gets one starter out of a draft, he’s doing his job. See Tarik Skubal or Jacob deGrom, elite players drafted in the later rounds.

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          2. Honestly, it’s hard to know what to make of Aidan Miller – as noted he does do some things really well and he’s playing short, but it’s really disappointing for a top prospect to struggle in what is typically the best hitting league/level for good minor leaguers. Guys who turn into excellent big league players don’t usually struggle like this, but there are exceptions. Josh Donaldson played parts of three seasons in AAA at a much older age.

            And, although it’s a complete different context, Mike Schmidt’s first half of a minor league season in Reading as a 21 year old – was pretty bad. He hit .211. But in Schmidt’s defense, he made his professional debut in AA, which could not have been easy and by the next season he was showing himself to be an elite prospect.

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      2. The part that drives me crazy about Miller is the inconsistencies. He will stink it up 3 days, go on a tear for 2, do nothing for 3 more, etc. Have a game where he presses all the right buttons and then a game of K’s or errors.

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        1. This is what concerns me most. It suggest that MAYBE he is really only hitting the poor pitching and has no chance against better pitching. I guess we’ll see, but if you don’t have a really solid hit tool, these days especially, it’s almost impossible to become a good major league player. Like we’ve said, it’s unusual for a great hitting prospect to stall in AA Reading. It just is.

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    2. funny i was just thinking about how he was progressing the other day…

      if he found it… Hallelujah!

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  94. What oldruff wrote about Miller having a cycle of 2 good games, then 3 not so good games could probably go for McGarry too except McGarry is older for his level.

    On to something more crazy. Chances are Schwarber leaves (even if Harper lobbies all he can). Does he want 4 years, 5 years? Let him go and get Tucker to replace him.

    Of course, Tucker can’t replace 45 HRs but he can play the outfield very well, he gets on base, and he’ll only be 29 years old. If you can get him on an 8 year contract, it might be worth it.

    The big problem is who’s going to tell Castellanos that he has to move over to left field? Not me! Better yet, move on from Castellanos altogether and get a new DH and another outfielder.

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    1. Personally, I expect the Phillies to re-sign Schwarber. Yeah, the contract will be too long, but what else is new? But if they sign Tucker, let’s be clear, he is a superb player and potential (although not likely) Hall of Famer, so it would be a great signing. He won’t hit more homers, but but he’ll do everything else better and will get paid more money over more years.

      My money is on Schwarber to stay, however.

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    2. Obviously Schwarber is great at the plate and a clubhouse leader… but stinks at fielding. I’ve mentioned this before, curious what the rest of you think. I wonder if the net gain of signing Tucker and having a non permenant DH, or at least one you can play average defense, would strengthen the team overall….

      With the core aging, it’s going to be important to rest Harper. If the DH is permanent player, thats not happening.

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    3. The only way Kyle Tucker is signed by the Phillies is if BOTH Schwarber and Realmuto walks. And even then, I have serious doubts. Tucker is probably going to get at least 10/400.

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  95. For those of us who are following relievers’ rehabs:

    Robertson .1 IP 1 K 5 pitches (finished the inning)

    Alvarado 1.0 IP 2 Ks 12 pitches

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    1. Like Top said, Robertson has to get his velo up, they are hoping in the next few weeks and especially, I assume, by when the rosters expand he will have it up a few more ticks. His cutter is his out pitch….it was at 92 yesterday according to the MiLB site.

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      1. I think Robertson will hover in the 92-94 range. As long as he can locate his cutter and curveball, he’ll be fine.

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  96. Check out this kid at Clearwater. Robert Phelps, a shortstop, was the 19th round pick in the 2025 draft. His numbers are SSS but he looks like a gamer.

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  97. I watched the Reading game and I know Aidan’s numbers aren’t great, but he put together some great ABs. Smoked a ball to center and just missed a 3 run homer by feet. If he keeps having quality ABs I can see why they are so high on him.

    also, McGarry’s fastball is so elite. Man I wish he could put it all together.

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