Phillies Discussion 7/2/2025

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Two series’ wins after the embarrassing sweep by the Astros where the Phillies managed one run in three games while allowing just five runs and the Phillies appear to have righted the ship.  But have they?  

They opened the Braves series at home with a 13-run explosion.  But all long-suffering Phillies fans new full well that was only a prelude to an offensive struggle the next night.  In fact, they scored one run in a predictable loss the following night and two runs in the series clinching win a day later.  They returned to acceptable offensive production against the Padres with four, four, and five runs resulting in a win, loss, and win in a second consecutive series win.

Now, after an off day, the Phillies host the Reds over the holiday weekend before closing out the first half with a 6-game swing through California against the Giants and Padres before the All-Star break.

The Phillies will return to action with 12 games.  Six against the Angels and Red Sox at home and six against the Yankees and White Sox on the road before the trade deadline.  The Phillies are off on the 31st, so if the roster remains status quo and they continue to play as they have through the first 87 games, Dombrowski and his staff may have a very busy “deadline day”.

This is your Phillies discussion.

The following are just opinions.  Some are certainly based on some solid facts/stats but opinions, nonetheless.

  • Ranger Suarez will NOT be traded.  Okay, probably not.  I’m sure that a team contending for a playoff spot might be able to put together a very attractive offer that would satisfy one or two of the Phillies current needs as well as a sweetener that was a top prospect or two.  But Ranger is a rental.  That will drive any return down.  Teams that will be sellers at the deadline will be motivated to wait until the offseason when they can acquire him for money and a lost draft pick next season.  Of course, they will have to contend with all the deadline buyers in the offseason.  Unless the Phillies receive an offer they can’t refuse, Ranger closes out the season with the Phillies, receives and turns down a qualifying offer, and enters the free agent market.  I don’t believe the Phillies are interested in resigning Ranger at a price or length of contract that Boras would approve.  I believe Ranger would like to finish his career with the Phillies, but his agent won’t allow the hometown discount that Ranger would likely extend.  It wouldn’t be enough anyway.
  • Other than Ranger, the Phillies have few payers on their rosters who are attractive to other teams.  Players who might be able to headline a trade (at varying degrees) would include Kyle Schwarber, Alec Bohm, and Cristopher Sanchez.  Orion Kerkering, Mick Abel, and Jesus Luzardo would maybe draw some interest but not as headliners bringing back difference makers.  Prospects of interest in MLB Ranking order would include – Andrew Painter, Aidan Miller, Justin Crawford, Eduardo Tait, Mick Abel (if optioned), Aroon Escobar, Jean Cabrera, and Alirio Ferrebus.  A few other guys would be attractive if they weren’t on injury lists.  Any others would only be throw-ins.  (Wheeler, Turner, Harper, Nola, Castellanos, and Walker are untradeable due to the size of their contracts, no trade clauses, 10and-5 rights. or performance.)
  • If the Phillies don’t extend Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto, they risk losing them to free agency.  Definitely Schwarber.  Probably Realmuto.
  • Alec Bohm is performing much better than he is given credit.  He had a horrendous start to the season hitting .150/164/.167/.331 after his first 14 starts (15 team games).  Since then, he is hitting .310/.356/.442/.798.  His overall slash is very comparable to his slash for 2024.  The most glaring difference is the drop in his SLG.  This can be explained not by his HR output which is on a similar pace but a dramatic drop off in doubles so far this season.  Additionally, his BB% has dipped a little and his K% has risen but is still comfortably below 20% at 17%.  His ISO is down a lot as would be expected but his Hard Hit and Line Drive percents are up from last year.  Plus, his fielding is so much better.  He has committed just 3 errors, all at third base, where his .983 Fielding Percentage is well above the .962 league average.
  • Playing the left-handed hitters against both handed pitchers to give them a chance to be full time regulars has had two outcomes.  First, it has exposed that the lefties struggle against left-handed pitchers.  And second, it has caused the team to overlook an internal option in the outfield.  This decision as well as the heavy reliance on analytics has had a negative effect on Johan Rojas.  Playing in a part-time role he has sunk to a .219 batting average.  If they had given him the same opportunity as they gave the left-handed batters he may have won the center field position outright.  How, you ask.  Well earlier in the season and before they completely activated their “let the lefties face lefties” plan, Rojas was given the opportunity to start every day for 14 games.  From April 16th thru May 1st, Rojas batted .326/.354/.488/.843 in 48 plate appearances.  He had 3 walks (6.25%), 2 sac flies, 12 Ks (25%), and 4 extra base hits (2 doubles, a triple, and a HR).  He only got the extended play because of a hamstring injury that Marsh suffered.  Now I don’t suggest that Rojas could have maintained that level of production.  But it does seem to indicate that in his case at least knowing that you will play every day can have positive results.

Important Dates

  • April 4, 2025: MiLB roster limits decrease from 175 to 165 players
  • July 13-15, 2025: MLB Amateur Draft
  • July 24, 2025: End of FCL regular season
    • July 26, 2025: One-game FCL semi-final
    • July 27-29: Best of three FCL finals
  • July 31, 2025: MLB trade deadline at 6:00 P.M. EST
  • August 19, 2025: End of DSL regular season
    • Playoffs TBD: 8 teams, 3 best-of-three rounds
      • 6 division winners, 2 wild cards
  • Note: These dates will be used unless/until notified differently.

Transactions 

July 2025
7/02/2025 – Phillies recalled RHP Seth Johnson from Lehigh Valley
7/02/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated 2B Donovan Walton
7/02/2025 – SS Erick Brito assigned to Reading from Lehigh Valley
7/02/2025 – OF John Spikerman assigned to Clearwater from Jersey Shore
7/02/2025 – OF Manolfi Jimenez assigned to FCL Phillies from Clearwater
7/01/2025 – New York Mets traded 2B Donovan Walton to Phillies for cash
7/01/2025 – 2B Donovan Walton assigned to Lehigh Valley
7/01/2025 – RHP Rene Yrish assigned to DSL Phillies Red from DSL Phillies White
7/01/2025 – DSL Phillies White placed LHP Juan Parra on the 7-day IL retroactive to 6/29
7/01/2025 – RHP Yordy Magdariaga assigned to DSL Phillies White from DSL Phillies Red
7/01/2025 – RHP Josias Utrera assigned to DSL Phillies White from DSL Phillies Red

June 2025
6/30/2025 – Phillies designated 1B Buddy Kennedy for assignment
6/30/2025 – Phillies activated 1B Bryce Harper from the 10-day IL
6/30/2025 – Lehigh Valley transferred RHP Nabil Crismatt to the Development List
6/29/2025 – RHP Ryan Cusick assigned to Lehigh Valley from FCL Phillies
6/29/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated OF Keaton Anthony from the 7-day IL
6/29/2025 – Lehigh Valley placed RHP Wil Crowe on the 7-day IL
6/29/2025 – Lehigh Valley transferred C Josh Breaux to the Development List
6/28/2025 – Phillies optioned RHP Alan Rangel to Lehigh Valley
6/28/2025 – Phillies recalled RHP Daniel Robert from Lehigh Valley
6/28/2025 – RHP Wil Crowe assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading
6/28/2025 – DSL Phillies White placed SS Carlos Severino on the 60-day IL
6/28/2025 – RHP Gabriel Martinez assigned to DSL Phillies Red
6/27/2025 – Phillies signed IFA RHP Gabriel Martinez to an MiLB contract
6/27/2025 – RHP Gabriel Barbosa assigned to Jersey Shore from Clearwater
6/27/2025 – Jersey Shore transferred RHP Reese Dutton to the Development List
6/27/2025 – RF Nick Biddison assigned to Jersey Shore
6/27/2025 – Clearwater activated RHP Luke Gabrysh from the 7-day IL

315 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion 7/2/2025”

  1. Don’t know they can do it for both but I would like the Phils to see what they have in Johnson and Rangel before they add to the pen at the deadline.

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    1. At best, Rangel is a 5/6 starter or a long man.

      Seth Johnson is a work in progress. He throws hard but fairly straight. I don’t think the Phillies can fully rely on Johnson this year. I think Johnson needs to incorporate a sinker, something with some movement. Orion Kerkering struck out Machado yesterday on a particularly nasty sinker, which Orion didn’t have when he joined the Phillies 2 years ago.

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      1. what is interesting about that, is if you recall… there were talks that when Romano was added, that their pitch offerings were too similar. So Romano being the veteran got to keep his and they tinkered with Kerkering’s pitches. Romano struggled early due to low velocity, hopefully that’s corrected & Orion struggled at some point and corrected it. Im interested to know if he powered througn the tweaks or said I’m going back to what got me here.

        I will say, Orion’s sweeper scares me in a playoff game, feels like he can easily wild pitch, even with Realmuto back there.

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        1. I think Ricky Bottallico mentioned that Orion will see improved results once he returns to his normal pitches.

          The evolution of Orion just shows how hard it is to stay in the bigs. When he came up, he was mostly sweeper and his fastball was wild. Then his fastball command got better and he started to throw it more but it was straight. Now he’s incorporating a sinker.

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          1. He’s been great. Since May 1, Kerkering has thrown 22.1 innings, with a 0.81 ERA. I have no complaints about his year; he’s been a very solid bullpen piece. Hope that Johnson or Robert or Rangel or . . . can develop, because it is way cheaper (both in terms of salary and needing to trade prospects) to develop bullpen arms internally.

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  2. Good – McFarlane just had back to back starts of 5 shutout innings, allowing zero hits. Did he figure something out?

    Bad – Escobar finished June hitting only 203. Is he just tired or is it something worse? Plus, Miller is still not hitting, Tait has cooled off, and Nori is still at only 250

    There is no hitting beyond Crawford.

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    1. If a team is lucky enough to have 4-5 prospects in the top 100, some of those guys are more potential than current production.

      If you’re going into every year looking for enough Phillies pitching and/or hitting in the minors, then you will be disappointed every year. That’s why FA exists. No team will have this type of elite prospects every year. None.

      Who’s home grown on the Dodgers that’s good right now? Will Smith, Andy Pages. That’s it. 37 year old Kershaw is still pitching, but he hasn’t thrown over 135 innings since 2019.

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      1. That’s an unrealistic comparison as no team is spending like the Dodgers. The Phils have had two big multi year runs in my lifetime that included a championship and both had many home grown players.

        The two Pirates relievers would look good here and are controlled through next year. cost? Abel, Tait, Escobar and DeMartini?

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        1. If you’re not a big market team, then yes, you will have a lot of home grown players on your team to save money. However, these home grown players will NOT all be good.

          Take a look at the Pirates. Cruz and Hayes are not doing that well. It’s really only Paul Skenes.

          You can look at the 2008 team as an outlier. They had 8 home grown guys out of the main 13 starters (no DH). It’s very difficult to get all that at the same time. The 1993 team wasn’t built like that.

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        2. Santana just was suspended for fighting with a Pirates fan and Bednar is the type of RP who will crumble when pitching in a pennant race. He has struggled mightily for past 1 1/2 seasons, except vs us. No way in hell I’m dealing AE and ET for those 2.
          This is where your pro scouts can sway a pennant; there will be a couple RP dealt who aren’t at the top of fans’ wishlists. But they will still play vital roles in October.

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        3. My friend, if they trade Abel/Tate/Escobar AND DeMartini for 2 relievers, they should be relegated out of the MLB on the spot. Lol that is a package for a superstar.

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      2. Agree…..the better teams utilize free agency and trades to remain strong….Yankees have Judge and Volpe as home grown…Dominguez and Rice appear promising but still a progress in work.

        The small market teams are the super-minor league for the large market teams…once their stars reach free agency, they be gone.

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  3. From what i see, Escobar is just about gone at the deadline. DD is going for it, Escobar, Abel, Ferrebus, Marsh, and Rojas should all have their bags packed. More so the 1st three in that list. DD has to trade somebody and that should get him Duran imo. Thats what they needs. Hopefully it’s just about there to add Buxton as well. New OF – Crawford, Buxton, Castellanos … BP … Duran, Strahm, Kerkering, Romano, and either Ranger or Luzardo added for the Playoffs. Probably Luzardo.

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    2. Abel may be there….but pitchers are what many teams want in a trade, they have adequate enough of position players in their systems…..so Cabrera, McFarlane, and Steward now may also be in the trade equation.

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  4. i believe painter. And Crawford are untouchable. I hate to lose Tait. Escobar could replace Stott. Who is great at second. But his bat is weak.

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    1. Escobar is in A ball, at least 3 years away, IF he keeps hitting. He just hit 200 in June so let’s pump the brakes on him. He is a very attractive trade piece to a team like the Pirates though as is Tait.

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  5. I think Rojas’ continuous baseball stupidity drives his teammates crazy; of course the same could be said of Marsh. Considering our core regulars come from one background and Rojas from another, does that play a part in this? IMO yes. Remember the “assistant GM” has major say throughout the organization.

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    1. “Considering our core regulars come from one background and Rojas from another,….”…walking a fine line there with the elephant in the room. IMO, it is a mute point.

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    2. Are we just ignoring Castellanos, 60% of our starting rotation, and Alvarado when we’re talking about the “background” of our regulars?

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  6. not sure who gets traded at deadline, but DD has yet to deal a Phillies LA prospect that had power; swapping Bergolla and Caba was a lot easier than potentially dealing AE or ET. Not saying it won’t happen though.

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    1. Excluding present company Escobar and Tait….what LA prospect was ever shown to have had power in the system over the last five years? Cannot think of any. Maikel Franco may have been the last.

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  7. Rumor mill is saying there is an anonymous GM that thinks Castellanos will get traded at the deadline… pretty funny … pretty sure DD knows “who” the anonymous GM is … so whats the point of being “anonymous”! Of course you can argue a few curveballs in that scenario but… seems like Dave is going to be having a talk with a particular GM soon.

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  8. Bowden supposedly said that multiple GMs have stated Casty may be moved at deadline; so far DD hasn’t shown that type of aggressive move during a season.

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  9. Romus …… I was bad and queried you on the draft blog about Miller. Sorry about that, but what’s going on with this guy? I understand he has/had a medical concern. He was 1 for 7 yesterday, BB 1 R 4 K’s .231 avg. his fielding isn’t much better than his bat. Looks years away to me.

    Meanwhile Crawford was 3 — 4 with a BB and sporting a .341 avg.

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    1. Sorry Skeet…..all I can tell you is prospect development isn’t linear. He still may have a nagging issue going on or just in the midst of prospect growing pains. My neighbors’ boy won Astros minor league pitcher of the year last year…..now he is struggling at Corpus Christi with control after battling some ailments early in the year. Miller still is fairly young at AA level….probably better not to compare him to Crawford.

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  10. I’ve slowed my roll on Andrew Painter making a meaningful contribution to the big team this year. Not making a larger statement about his overall status as a prospect. But it’s not coming together for him at Lehigh Valley in a way that suggests a useful role at this year’s dance.

    At a point where the Phils must have hoped that Painter was ready to give them limited, but valuable innings, I don’t see an indication that that is the case. On an innings limit but not distinguishing himself at his current level, I don’t see the Phils making a roster spot available to him — to do what for perhaps 50-60 innings?

    So much trade talk seems swept up in the notion that Painter is on the runway ready for take-off and I think that assessment needs revision. It would be a great conversation if Painter projected as ready for a call-up to handle 6-8 starts before being slotted into the pen for the post-season. It’s looking more like a conversation detached from reality.

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    1. Painter stuff is elite He was great for three innings. This was my point the other day. He is not ready after injury. Building ack arm strength. Got hot around in fourth after about 59 pitches. Needs more time. But he is elite

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      2. The organization has been working to get Painter to 90 pitches an outing and I expect thatffort to continue.

        As the big team contemplates its rotation post- July 31, it’s hard to pencil painter in. Could the Philsadjust their thinking on Painter and how he gets used for the rest of the year? Sure,at some point but not likely this month. So what?

        The depth in the rotation takes on a different look. With Nola’s return uncertain, Mick Abel begins to look like someone the team needs to keep. I’ve never been in favor of moving him but others have.

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      3. rocco…in three weeks it will be his second year back from the surgery. Every pitcher is different, so who knows when he reaches his full recovery…could be next month or a few months later.

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      4. sounds like he could build his arm back up in the pen the 2h of this year and then work on being a full time starter next year. some people act like its a crazy idea, but wainwright and price both did it when they were top tier starting pitcher prospects on contenders

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  11. im skeptical DD moves big prospects for a RP. Alvarado comes back in a month-ish and that helps you get to the postseason. In the postseason, you are looking at maybe Luzardo and Painter (maybe Abel?) in the pen. I think thats probably on par w most relievers. Id look for a lower leverage arm or to instead

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      1. If you are using Luzardo out of the pen, that’s one from the left side. Just adding even Painter would also free you up for using Strahm differently.

        I mean, maybe they get a “legit” closer. But legit closer last year Carlos Estevez was fine, a 3.38 era but not sure anyone felt fully confident and it didn’t matter. I wouldn’t trust Brandon Finnegan more than Luzardo/Painter. I guess I would Duran but that might be it. I’d get an arm but wouldn’t sell the farm for relievers who tend to be fickel.

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        1. Lot of what you said makes sense. I still think they need a legit closer.

          I don’t think the Twins are gonna be big sellers. I think you basically chose from Chapman/Bautista/Clase.

          I’d take them in that order.

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  12. Abel sent to Lehigh Valley. Another move is coming. Doesn’t change my earlier point that rotation depth is not all we had hoped.

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    1. Seth Johnson. Walker temporarily to the rotation. Might try that to Nola comes back or Painter gets on a role

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    2. It had to be done. Abel needs to refine his stuff and it’s better that he does it at Lehigh.

      It seems every year, people complain about rotation depth and the answer is ALWAYS the same. No team has enough pitching depth. You would be lucky to have 1-2 passable starters at AAA. Most teams don’t even have that. No good veteran is going to sign a minor league deal waiting to be called (and not getting service time). So AAA is filled with prospects, filler and retreads. End of story. So let’s move on from this conversation.

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    3. Abel can also get some work in at LHV during the MLB all-star break……his last outing was a disaster for him, but he was off at least 8/9 days…..threw him out of whack. Many pitchers like their routines not to be disturbed.

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      1. And before the weather caused him to miss a start in Atlanta on 5 days rest, the Mets’ game was the first time in his career he pitched on 4 days rest between starts.

        Starting pitchers are locked into their between game routines.

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  13. Not sure where that was directed but the Phils struggled last year with Taiuan as the 5th starter which satisfied no one; perhaps not even you. No one wanted to run that back and yet, for now, that’s what it looks like.

    No team has too much rotational depth. True. My point is that it’s not time to move Abel.

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  14. I believe the org is hoping Abel pitches well at LHV his next 4 starts so it keeps his value up when it comes to trade time. If he pitches well, I think he’s a goner. I also think that Walker gets another start in hopes that he does okay so they can get 50 cents on the dollar this off season.

    Adding my two cents (that’s about all it’s worth) to this site I also think that Realmuto signs a two year contract for a total of what he’s making this year. That’s about $12M. Then he leaves or retires with Wheeler. Hopefully, he catches 50-60% of what’s he’s catching this year.

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    1. Cida,

      Agree but I think JT makes closer to 2 yrs/$20.

      I think Able’s value is pretty fixed. If he was really good it could have gone up but right now I think he has a safe Floor.

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        1. I guess he was not all into the Phillie Way.

          Wonder why they held onto him this long. His bat was not bad….career slash of 285/.358/.730…but they felt it was time to move on.

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          1. The Phillies do have a Standard to which they require all prospects adhere. They kept him this long because of the size of the bonus. They paid for him; it didn’t cost them much additional to disrupt his career in return for the trouble he caused and continued to cause them.

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    1. I’m assuming about leaving in Luzardo too long? We have the benefit of hindsight, which I hate. If Luzardo gives up 3-4 runs and goes 5 innings, then it’s ok. Taking him out at the first sign of trouble will tax the bullpen and the Phillies don’t have a day off until Thursday. Luzardo is a veteran, he got the benefit of the doubt, and it didn’t work out. It happens.

      Now if that was Mick Abel, then I would have an issue with it.

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        1. rocco……..right now that looks to be the way to go. Come Sep that could change. Luzardo is not a free agent until 2027….so he will be relatively inexpensive next season….a little younger than Ranger-two years…..and did terminate his contract with Boras and went with another agent….will probably be $10/11M AAV in final arb year. Oddly his FIP is a lot lower than his ERA, and Ranger’s is the reverse,,,ERA higher than his FIP. So yuo suggest sign Ranger to a Boras induced contract…..5 plus 1 year starting the negotiations @ $25AAV.

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          1. Romus I just don’t want to lose Ranger. But understand length of contract and money will be key

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            1. Yeah rocco…no one wants to lose Ranger. have to see how Dombrowski navigates this. Having bloated contracts to Walker and Castellanos, though near their end, clutters the landscape. Those contracts are on Dombrowski.

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      2. Guru, well I disagree but I don’t totally disagree. First I disagree that giving up 3 or 4 runs in 5 innings is “OK”. Second, I think the Luzardo trade was a good one, and don’t disagree that you can’t be too trigger- happy but holy Bob Walk…. he did not seem to be locating his off-speed pitches so he had to throw the fastball. Now, if you were watching the game live, like I couldn’t, you would be able to see if he was missing the target badly, but even so, how can you wait to let a pitcher put on 6 straight batters before you take him out?

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        1. When I meant it was ok, that was when he was already giving up runs and in trouble. Ok was damage control. He was missing with his sweeper but as a veteran, the hope is that he rights the ship quickly. Taking him out in the 3rd wouldn’t have been ideal, so Thomson gave Luzardo a long, veteran leash. It just didn’t work out.

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  17. Dang! Can’t believe I’m agreeing with Moffo twice in the same week. I believe that this is going to be Luzardo’s career. He is going to be untouchable occasionally, mediocre a lot, and then have games like today every now and again. When he loses focus and thus the strike zone, this is what you get.

    He’s making $6.6M this season and probably over $8M next year. He would make a good trade piece in the off season. With his $8M and money from Realmuto’s salary chopped in half, it could go to paying Suarez’ first year.

    Wheeler will be gone year after next which means $42M will be there to continue to pay Suarez and find another piece for the lineup. The big thing with Suarez is how many years do you have to commit to him. I think four.

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    1. If Suarez finishes the year strong, there will likely be a bit of a bidding war for his services. I think 5/125 is the minimum. And I think giving him 6 or 7 years would be a mistake, similar to Nola’s contract.

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      1. I don’t like giving huge deals to pitchers with low velo, we already gambled with Nola and it’s bad.

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    2. People couldn’t wrap their heads around how he looked here early this season compared to his career stats. Now they see firsthand that he has too many games where he is a disaster, thus ballooning his season totals. Problem is there’s no rhyme or reason to it and long term cannot be counted on. Still a good deal IMO, I don’t see Caba hitting enough to warrant regrets about the move.

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    3. The only way Ranger and Boras take four years…is an opt out after the first and/or second year….or what Boras did with Pete Alonso’s contract with the Mets……player option in 2026 at $24M…down from $30M this year…he will test the market again I would think in four months. Assume AAV probably starts at $25M and works its way up, with Ranger.

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  18. Suarez is Philly born and bred. He does not want to leave. I know the key is money and years. However, I believe (hope) he takes less of each to stay in the only home he’s known.

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  19. I forgot about Walker’s money coming available after next year (if they can’t deal him off for pennies on the dollar). If the owner is hurting for cash, he can always sell some of the team to Romus.

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    2. ciada, Romus bought two percent of team in 2022. This owner has to eat some money to keep as much as he can of the starting pitching. Hope that Crawford can hit and Anthony can help. I still think if he eats money they can move Nola. Let realmuto walk. Or see if he takes one yr. 10 million tops that gave out these bad contracts. Middleton make it right

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      1. They aren’t moving Nola even if they wanted to(they do not). He just got his 10-5 rights and can veto any trade.

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  20. Walker’s contract was the equivalent of buying an “Edsel”. Unfortunately, the duration of the contract was 1 year longer than the production run of the car.

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  22. Ranger … is going to be tough. I can see the Mets, Yanks, & LAD making untouchable offers for him. Best shot the Phillies have is that Middleton might be able to stretch the dollar until some bad contracts fall off, to hold the fort. Ranger has been here during one the greatest eras in Phillies basbeball… so he’s seen all the good, minus the Championship. Will see, but 5/125 seems like the starting point. Hopefully it woudl get it done I see closer to 27-28AVV then somewhere between 5-7 years…I’m thinking 6… hopefully no one is dumb enough to go 7.

    Luzardo has it. Glad they got him from the Marlins. Thought he was an ace back then. I still see it. He has Realmuto with the game plan so, im assuming he is still evolving as a pitcher. Interested to see how he finishes the year off.

    I think Abel is as good as gone now. Hopefully in a trade package for either Duran or Clause. I’m not 100% sure whos still in the race or not,but one of those arms in the pen would be NICE…

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        1. So this current era is a ‘great’ era…….depends upon what your definition is great, vs good or very good.

          For me until a WS ring is wrapped in it somewhere …it isn’t ‘great’.

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      3. To clarify , i did mean “one of”, not the greatest or best era. He’s been damn lucky in terms of Phillies players career. Not many players have seen the team success that he has.

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      1. just wanted to say i love your work and visit your site daily (as well as this one)

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    2. Prospects? The Phillies have 12 pitchers among MLB’s top 30 prospects for the organization. Painter (#1) and Abel (#5) are at AAA but both are starters. Chace (#7) is on the IL. Cabrera (#12) is at AA and is a starter. Seth Johnson (#13) is already with the big club. Mavis Graves (#18) and Alex McFarlane (#18) are at A+ and McFarlane is just starting back after TJ surgery. Eiberson Castellano (#19), Pan Wen-hui (#20), and Christian McGowan (#22) are at AA but are all on the IL. Michael Mercado (#23) is a reliever at AAA but I don’t think confidence in him is high. And Micah Ottenbreit (#28) is on the IL.

      In addition to the 3 pitchers above, the Phillies have 14 more pitchers at AAA. Twelve of these were added since the end of last season and probably don’t garner much confidence from the font office – free agents Wil Crowe, Adonis Medina (SP), Gabe Mosser (SP), Austin Schulfer, Lucas Sims, Guillo Zuniga; trade acquisitions Nolan Hoffman, Nicholas Padilla, Devin Sweet, Josh Walker; and waiver claims Ryan Cusick, Brett de Gues. Alan Rangel (SP) pitched five shutout innings in relief against the Braves his last trip up. He may be able to provide some long man help. Daniel Harper was a pitcher of interest going into thew season. Ten weeks on the IL have delayed his progress through the system. Still, there’s a chance he could help this season. He was just promoted to AAA, so he bears some watching. Tommy McCollum is pitching effectively but is still at AA.

      That’s problem with prospect lists. They are often times biased. They can miss players like Harper and McCollum.

      I don’t believe Painter, Abel, and other young starters, can easily be converted to relievers. Starting pitchers follow stringent preparation between starts. Disruption to their routine often does not go well. You can’t have them on their normal routine and then toss them into the bullpen in the playoffs. It’s difficult enough that at last year’s trade deadline a pitcher refused to move to the bullpen even if it meant a trade from the 41-121 White Sox to a contending team.

      Like

      2. The salaries of starters are higher than those of relievers by a significant margin. This is an incentive for pitchers to be stubborn in trying to stay on the starters track and throw up obstacles when tasked with being relievers.

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    1. This is the second time a Pittsburgh source has said the Phillies are interested in their relievers. The earlier rumor included Bednar and Santana. That one was wrong. This one is inaccurate. Santana is a reliever of interest but not the Phillies primary target.

      Like

        1. Please, he was sliding to miss the railing and didn’t make a play. Personal dislike for the player isn’t a lack of concentration on his part.

          Like

  27. Ranger…..“I felt it in my last start in Atlanta, my body wasn’t feeling 100 percent, so the pitch limit was because of that, just to see how we progress and how we go forward, said Suárez. “It’s my shoulder and my back overall. I felt a little bit better, that’s why they told me we were going to have a pitch limit. But today was good overall. I felt way better.”

    His effort on the mound, IMO , is smooth and effortless….not sure why yearly discomfort as seasons progress.

    Like

    1. Because he shows up in Clearwater fat and out of shape. I’ve seen it. Still looks chubby during the season. He needs to put in the work in the offseason to get into playing shape and live up to the contract he signs with his next team.

      Like

      1. Maybe that next team is Philly? Probably not. One could make an argument for extending him and letting Lazurdo walk next yr.

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      2. Yeah….looks soft, especially around the waist line. Listed at 6’1″, 217 lbs……that listed weight may be a little generous for him. Some pitchers are able to handle the excess weight….others end up with health issues like lower back strains or knee issues. He also mentioned his shoulder….whoa, that is a new one now. In his contract year, why bring that up! And Boras probably will tell him to keep mum over the next few months.

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      3. This is insightful, Jim. If ‘loose’ off-season conditioning is his norm before he attains the big contract, think of what it might be afterwards. Some pitchers aren’t built to log major innings. I suspected that might be the case with Ranger. Could it be that he doesn’t condition to get the most from what he has? Interesting.

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        1. lack of conditioning is enraging for fans & players these days. It’s not 1993 anymore (sorry kruk!) it’s a sign of disrespect to the dream imho. The information & programs are out there. Very few acceptable reasons for a professional player to not be in shape/highly conditioned these days. You don’t have to be Arnold Swarts, but you damn well better be able to do your job + some. Giving him 100+ million dollars guaranteed isnt going to fix his conditioning. Thats a big red flag. Id bet his 1st couple years are good, then his middle to back of the contract a time of time is lost to injuries as a result of conditioning. he can get away with some stuff now, but this won’t play well for him in the coming years when he needs to do basic workout maintenance just to feel normal, let alone get to professional athlete fitness.

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  28. Ranger has never thrown more than 155 innings in a season. Whoever has him from 2026 onward should not expect him to throw more than that.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. I mentioned that to Ruff the other day. They actually got ahead then back behind for a day now above again. Braves and Orioles both had the same record yesterday. Believe O’s won.

      Like

    1. The prudent move for me is for the Phils to fly west with Justin Crawford as the every day center fielder till the end of the month at a minimum. Give Rojas every day playing time at LV.

      The Phils’ offense is not clicking and if Crawford can’t provide juice immediately, better to know before the deadline. The Phils will hold vets Kepler and Marsh till the last hand is dealt. But it’s either Crawford providing a spark or the Phils have to shop for it at a considerable cost to the organization in prospects.

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  32. Right now Cy Young looks like it will be between Wheeler and Paul Skenes….Slenes is 4-7, and no starter has ever won the Cy Young with a losing record….however, one pitcher has….Dodger reliever Eric Gagne…2-3, with over 50 saves however that season.

    So hope Wheeler can keep it up.

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    1. Romus. I agree on that. Personally, I see no way that Wheeler does not get the start for All Star game. But … So, after Phillies game yesterday, I flipped between Astros/Dodgers and Pirates/Mariners. Skenes went only 5 innings yesterday. Announcers made note he has only 1 win in his last 13 starts. Believe ERA is 1.72 in those. Also, they noted in his first 42 starts he has an ERA of 1.95. Only one pitcher ever in modern era better. I quizzed Ruff on this but got now answer. Vida Blue. He was not bad. Think DeGrom was like 11-11 or so the year he won.

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  34. It’s stunning to me that the Orioles need a catcher but they decide to trade for one (Alex Jackson) instead of promoting Sam Basallo. What the heck are the Orioles doing??? Basallo has a .920 OPS at AAA!

    Like

      1. Good pitching beats good hitting. That old statement so true. Phillies 3-28 with risp this series. Win two out of three. I am on the fence if you have one good move is it a right hand bar or bullpen? Can’t continue to leave runners in scoring position. At this high rate.

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          1. 28th in batting with bases loaded. I believe I read don’t know if Otto is the answer Hate to waste this good pitching this yr. On a rookie that’s a ton of pressure

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            1. 28th in average, but middle of the pack in overall scoring and OBP with bases loaded.

              We have the second lowest batting average on balls in play in all of baseball with the bases loaded, so there’s definitely some bad luck at work.

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          2. Rocco/Romus. I believe they need the 9th inning BP guy the most. But agree that the runners left on base is an issue. JMO but manager can do things to manufacture runs if he chooses to do so at times. There are some teams who do manufacture runs in games I watch. One of the best at that is the Brewers. But many teams are not any different than the approach the Phillies take. One thing a hitter can do is those situations is to look where the defense is playing. Many times, a simple ground ball to either side will do the job. So many times, now either the 2B or SS play right behind the bag and lots of room on the side they leave. That is a pretty big area to use. Oh well. The game is just played much different these days.

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  35. Anyone else think that maybe Harper and the Phillies would have benefited from some rehab games at Lehigh Valley? He has played in 4 of 5 games since his return and has gone 3 for 17 with 3 BB and 9 K. He hasn’t look particularly sharp in the at bats I saw, chasing a lot of pitches sweeping into the right-handed batter’s box.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. It probably would have helped Harper. But I’m not sure it would have helped the team as a whole.

      Just the threat of Harper running into one is probably more offensive production than whatever our replacement for him would do…

      I guess it does take away some game time for Kemp, though.

      Like

    2. I think it could have been beneficial, but believe he marches to his own drum with their blessings. I’m confident Kemp wouldn’t have K’d in all those same opportunities.

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    4. Agree Jim. But I am seeing in these other games that it seems several players are coming back from IL with no rehab. Believe Reds guys said Ashcraft of Reds did not go down for rehab. Maybe that is the new thing. Who knows. I heard someone say that before he hit ground ball to 1B he had 6 straight Ks and that was most ever in his career. No doubt his timing is not very good.

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    5. The last time he did a rehab in Lehigh Valley in 2022 he went 5 for 8 in two games. I think he found it was more beneficial to have the org send minor league pitchers to pitch to him in live situations than it was to actually play minor league games. Don’t forget, that’s how they got Jeff Hoffman onto the roster in 2023. He was the one pitching to Harper in live rehab ABs and Bryce asked why he wasn’t in the big league bullpen.

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  36. I’m not an expert, but I have figured out how to keep the Phillies from scoring runs: Let them put runners in scoring postion.

    Meanwhile, in one of those situations today, Casty swung on a third strike that was so far out of the zone that the ball almost hit a fan.

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  39. Always looking for pitching…..trendy upward are Daniel Harper, Saul Teran and all 145 lb of Jean Cabrera

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    1. Its funny I am pretty well tuned in here but have never heard of Harper til a few days ago and now it seems like hes generating legitimate “could help this year” buzz. Would love an out of nowhere contributor like that.

      Like

      1. He was talked about as a potential dark horse contributor coming into the year.

        He was a late-round pick in 2022 who had a very mediocre first full year in 2023 before taking a massive step forward in 2024. So far he’s been even better this year, so yeah he could be in the big leagues before too long.

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  40. What’s the asking price for 2.5 years of Steve Kwan?

    And would a package of:

    Andrew Painter, Brandon Marsh, and Dante Nori get it done? Or is that too steep?

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    1. I dont think they would move Painter for that. I dont think they want to move him at all, but IF they were to even consider it, it would have to be in a trade for a true superstar. Kwan is good and all, but i dont think he is the type of player that would get them to part with Painter

      Like

      1. I think we tend to overvalue Painter a little bit. Before the surgery, yeah, he looked like he was a superstar path. But since then, he seems to have a problem being great in Triple-A. Why would I trade an everyday “superstar” for a guy with some recent question marks? I’m not giving up on him by any means, but I just don’t like how tightly we hold onto him as if he’s a stud just waiting to come up. Does he have a better chance of being the next Paul Skenes or the next Gavin Floyd?

        Regardless, I’m alright with pulling the trigger for a real difference maker. Steven Kwan is the type of guy that helps teams NOT go cold for extended periods. I’m sure there are better options, but he just stands out as someone who could potentially be a plus piece for our awful outfield.

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        1. Eh not sure I agree he. Hes a future ace. Yes hes not dominating at AAA because hes coming off a serious injury and still building back up. I don’t think his overall outlook as a stud prospect is any different now. And even if you were correct here, that would fall under “selling low” which is a horrible way to do business. Every GM in the league should be on the phone with DD if they felt like a Kwan-esque player would get him

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          1. The term “ace” is perhaps too suggestive. There are only a handful of true aces in the league. Even guys who dominated the minors (Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes, Cole Hamels) never really became “aces.” I just think we’re over-valuing Painter a little bit and I’d be interested to see what other teams would offer for him. And to me, a Kwan-esque player (on pace for his second 5-win season at a very reasonable cost) wouldn’t be the worst option.

            Liked by 1 person

            1. We may be overvaluing him a little bit (and you’re undervaluing Cole Hamels more than a little bit- he was a playoff and WS ace and pitched like an ace for many years, although not ever year – if he had had 2 more solid years, he would have been a pretty good HOF candidate), but you don’t get guys like him in your system every day and you have to be very careful about trading away future, controllable stars.

              The great teams rarely trade away future stars – they hold onto them for dear life. You can’t always be right, but you have to view a future star as being essential to your future success and retain that player. Painter is the one player most likely to be a future star so I’d be very, very reluctant to trade him. I think one of the reasons the Padres always struggle to be dominant is they continually take the bait and trade away future stars. I know WHY they do it, I just typically do not agree with them.

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            2. Cole Hamels was 1/2. He has 59 WAR, every team would kill to have a pitcher who can deliver that. Wheeler has 39.9 WAR, there’s almost no way he’s catching up to Cole if he retires in 2 years.

              Andrew Painter’s ceiling is as high as Hamels. There’s no way you’re trading Painter.

              Liked by 1 person

        2. I think the potential of Painter out weighs the known value of Kwan. If this was the 1st Soto trade I’d agree with you. Heck if this was the Devers trade sure (though his attitude probably makes me say no) but Kwan…I kinda say no.

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  41. Noticed Crawford didnt play for LV yesterday. Wonder if that is something to keep an eye on, or if he was just getting a day off.

    Like

    1. I was wondering the same thing Dan. But I do know he gets days off here and there. I guess we’ll know in a few hours.

      Like

        1. Nah talking about yesterday. They played, and he didnt. Your point about not playing Monday’s is interesting though bc it makes it less likely he was given an “rest” day when he had a built in one the following day. Something to keep an eye on. It is definitely time.

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          1. Ruff is correct. Usually, the AAA teams play 6 games series beginning on Tuesday. I am near Indy so the tv guys are always talking about the Indians homestand, they noted Indy had played at home for 28 straight July 4ths. Like the Lions and Boys.

            So this would be 2 days off for Crawford. No idea what the leadership of the Phillies have in mind.

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    2. Crawford has played all six games of a series only twice this year, and not since early May. It’s 99% likely that it’s just a day off.

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  42. Aggghhhh ………. do you smell the fragrance of “TRADEWINDS” in the air? A refreshing new scent from 1 Citizens Bank Way.

    May the tides of change set gently upon us and be kind to us, rendering to us the fruits of October in due season.

    Amen

    Like

  43. MLB.com did the entire weekend free for all games played Fri-Sun so I got to see it all. Great outing by Wheeler! I even stayed tuned in for the post game interview. And this goes out to Moffo. In the 3 minute interview, Wheeler spoke for maybe 60-75 seconds.

    In that meager amount of time, he mentioned Realmuto probably 5 times. That being about how he calls a great game and how he keeps Wheeler focused on what’s going on and how he knows how to pitch to every batter.

    What better lobbying can Realmuto get for an extension than Wheeler singing his praises? So Rocco, I think we’ll be seeing Realmuto behind the plate for at least 2 more seasons.

    Like

  44. Two undefeated Phormer Phuture Phils pitchers……Spencer Howard is 5-0 with a 1.28 era with Rakuten in Japan, while Matt Seelinger is 8-0 with a 1.89 era with Erie and Toledo in the Tigers system

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    1. Phil Cuzzi behind the plate isn’t exactly a treat either ….. so much for transparency.

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    2. So benching Casty was a farce then if the premise was Thomson thought the team is better served with a defensive replacement for him late in games…

      He has yet to replace him in a game for defense since unless I missed it.

      Like

  46. What a farce, that a guy can take a really good baseball game like this one and turn it into a joke because he has no clue on what balls and strikes are!

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  47. Kerkering struck out Chapman 3 times on outstanding pitches down in the zone. Chapman’s ab turned out to be the key to the entire game. Simply a travesty – that game was stolen by the umpire. Criminal.

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    1. I fell asleep so didn’t see the game but sounds like the ump was hitter friendly last night and we only scored 1 run?

      Managed 6 hits but only 1 XBH. And only 2 hits against their BP after the starter went 5.

      Our OPS numbers just aren’t up to par. Schwarbers 920 won’t make up for a bunch of 6’s and 7’s.

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      2. No, he wasn’t hitter friendly, especially to Philly hitters. Harper specifically has multiple balls called strikes against him over several at-bats but there were many pitches called strikes that were balls.

        Except for Chapman. go figure.

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        1. Shame all these good starters. Pitching quality starts. And the GM does nothing to help the offense.unless they think Crawford can’t hit. Why is he not up at the top, of the lineup ? If he gets on in brings pressure on the defense. Only answer is the GM doesn’t think he can hit

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          1. Rocco. It is a shame. Hopefully Phillies have better trip than last one in regard to scoring. Five of those 6 games were almost nothing. 1 is close to nothing.

            Phillies starters for the most part have been great. Sad, they do not get any support and have to make each pitch as it could be the game winner.

            Know some will disagree but this team reminds me in many areas of the 24 team. Hope I am wrong but woeful scoring does not bode well for October if they can get in. It appears 10 teams still have a shot for the 6 spots in NL. Also, seems Phillies are not doing well on the tie breaker scenario either with most of these teams. Situational hitting has just been almost nonexistent. So many times, the 2B or SS is almost directly behind the bag and our guys rarely use the big area of the infield to drive the ball through. Marsh did move the runner up last night. Ironic, only run Phillies would score.

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            2. The Phillies tiebreaker situation:
              They have won against the Cubs (4-2) and Rockies (7-0).
              They have tied with the Pirates (3-3)
              They are ahead of Atlanta, Washington, and Miami in the division and behind the Mets (2-4).
              They are ahead of LAD, SD, and Arizona (all 2-1 with 3 to play).
              They are behind SF (2-3 with 2 to play) and Milwaukee (0-3 with 3 to play).
              And, they have lost to St. Louis (2-4).

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  48. Cuzzi reportedly missed 20 calls last night, some of them were egregious. He is the oldest ump in MLB at 70, and last night it showed. As I am fast approaching 50, the fact is that the eyes aren’t as sharp as they used to be; last night as the game progressed, Phil Cuzzi got worse and worse.

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    1. Advocate forced retirement at age ___. Other vocations have it where public safety dictates.

      I find my health and apparently others health as well in peril! Rapid heartbeat, urge to throw items through the TV, expressions using words #$%@ unfriendly, etc.

      Periodic eye exams are probably mandatory (annually I hope), so no need to go there.

      Like

  49. I understand that the Larry Bowa “getting furious and throwing things all the time” style has proven to be inefficient for managers in the long run, but my god, go out there and give the umpire hell every once in awhile Topper. The dude missed three strike 3 calls and ultimately cost you the game. Show some damn emotion. Again, I dont want a manager who blows up at every missed call, but sometimes its necessary

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  51. Romus. No doubt those 5 have to do better. But best days may be in the rearview for some. Reds announcers mentioned that Phillies have the 5th oldest team in MLB. I have been wondering who the 4 oldest may be. Guess Verlander and Mad Max add age. They did not say who the 4 were. No doubt it is time to deliver. This is kind of like 2011 with Doc and crew. Dropoff can come fast.

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    1. don….Phillies are embedded for years now with Harper and Iurner, come hell or high water=np getting around that….JTR is now probably going to be brought back also since there are no replacements in site right now….and how did you let Schwarber go…..so only Castellanos appears to be the one who will be leaving when his time is up. So four are here to stay for years.

      Like

    2. We were 6th coming into the season, I suppose someone ahead of us could have gotten younger since then.

      The 5 above us coming into the year (from oldest to youngest) are Dodgers, Padres, Rangers, Blue Jays, and Cubs.

      We’re also not substantially younger or older than any of the other major city teams. Generally the teams that skew younger than us are the small markets/low payroll teams. For obvious reasons.

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  52. We’re complaining a lot about the offense and rightfully so, but isn’t offense down across the sport? The Phillies rank 6th in the NL in terms of runs scored (they’d also rank 6th in the AL). They’re also 6th overall in preventing runs. The Dodgers are SIGNIFICANTLY worse at preventing runs. I would bank on the Phillies’ pitching over the Dodgers’ hitting in the playoffs. Further, some of the teams that are ahead of them in runs scored aren’t even currently in playoff position (e.g., Reds, DBacks). The Mets, Giants, Padres are all worse to significantly worse than the Phillies at scoring runs.

    The point is, they’re a really good baseball team gauged against the current competitive landscape. They certainly should make the playoffs and if they add EITHER a dominant reliever or a bat that can improve the OF quagmire, they are right up there with every other contender for the WS. No one says they have to be mashing the ball to win a WS.

    We’ve actually seen a Phillies team this year that is less reliant on the home run and more capable of stringing hits together to support the pitching staff. To me, that is encouraging. I do wonder if someone like Justin Crawford or Kwan (as another reader posted) who hits for a high average might be just what this team needs this year to get them over the edge. Get on base and keep the line moving. Schwarber, Harper, Bohm, and Castellanos can still drive in runs when there are guys on base in front of them.

    The draft and deadline (and this month generally) are going to be super interesting for their 2025 WS aspirations as well as the future of the org.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I think you are being a little too kind. I know they arent going to win every night 13-3, but they have to be able to score more than one or two nightly, and they have to hit with RISP. The most annoying thing is how many guys in the lineup are prone to strikeouts and double plays. Those two things can kill run scoring opportunities. And when they have gotten knocked out of the postseason, it has always been due to the offense going cold. They just need consistency. Like I said, they dont need 10+ runs a game, but they need a lot less games with 0, 1 or 2.

      Crawford needs to be up. I know, he hits ground balls. Whatever. How many times do we see them in a situation where a ground ball is a run, and they dont get it! The fear is that Crawford comes up and is Ben Revere, but Ben Revere would be better than Rojas or Kepler right now.

      You also, in my opinion, need more hitter variety. Bohm and Castellanos are both fine in a vacuum, but when you combined them with JT, that is three big lumbering slow as hell RH bats who strike out a lot and hit into a ton of double plays. Too many ways to kill a rally there. Would love a scrappy fast guy who makes contact in the lineup. I’m also for the first time willing to move Painter if it brings in Buxton.

      Like

      1. I don’t disagree with you. It could certainly bite them again in the postseason. And it is frustrating to watch the inconsistency. But I’m guessing these other playoff contenders have similar frustrations from a run-scoring or run-prevention perspective. The Dodgers are letting up 4.7 runs/gm compared to the Phillies 3.97. I don’t watch every Dodgers game, but you think their fans aren’t frustrated about their starters’ inability to go deep in games or their bullpen’s blowing leads? I’m certain they are and that those things could just as easily bite the Dodgers in the playoffs as timely hitting could bite the Phillies.

        If I’m Dombrowski, I’m looking for the best all around bullpen arm, bringing up Crawford to replace Kepler (despite the power downgrade), and trading for a RH outfielder to platoon with Marsh and/or Crawford as appropriate. I’d also be willing to trade for a 2B to platoon with, or replace, Stott.

        This team has enough to be in the championship mix, just like a bunch of other teams.

        Liked by 1 person

      2. JT is not a big slow as hell lumbering bat. According to MLB.com his foot speed exceeds some starting shortstops and centerfielders.

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        1. Hes not fast enough to hit the ball right at middle infielders as much as he does lol. 11 GIDPs is not a fluke.

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          1. Jackson Chourio is a 21 year old centerfielder and one of the faster players in baseball. He has 1 fewer GIDP than JT.

            11 can absolutely be a fluke.

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          2. JT’s footspeed is 122 out of 500 major league players. Rojas 3, Turner 4, Sosa 18, Kemp is 31 and Stott 90. ……. and lumbering Mike Trout at 136.😂

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      3. The Phillies are 10th (lowest) in strikeout percentage in MLB. Of the current playoff teams, only the Jays, Cubs, Mets, and Astros are lower. The Tigers, Yankees, Rays, Mariners, Dodgers, Brewers, and Giants all strike out more than we do.

        We are likewise 12th (lowest) in GIDP. The Brewers, Cubs, and Tigers are the playoff teams lower than us in that regard.

        In overall runs scored we’re 11th (highest), which is almost dead center of the current playoff teams (Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, Tigers, Rays, Brewers, and Jays being ahead of us.

        So there’s definitely room for improvement. But you also have a distorted view of what to expect from a MLB offense in the current iteration. Consistent offenses are a myth. The best offense in baseball (Dodgers) has been held to 1 run in 3 of their last 4 games. It’s infuriating to watch at times, but that’s just the reality of baseball. Batters are just going to fail 3/4 of the time.

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    2. Runs scored means nothing when. Your 3- 38 over the weekend that’s is a useless stat. When your 28 th in risp. Excuse for how bad this offense

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      1. Teams slump. It’s hard to watch, but it happens to everyone. As I mentioned above, even the vaunted Dodgers offense has been held to 1 run in 3 of their last 4 games.

        Taking the long view, the Phillies are an above average offense. There’s always ways to be better. But they’re by no means as bad as they’ve looked the past few days.

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      2. rocco….you have a very fair point…..RISP is a critical metric. That is where batting average comes into play. Many think BA is not an effective measuring tool,,,but when it comes to RISP,,,,it is critical. So a 3-38 is less than the Mendoza Line….a large number below it.

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  53. Tough to lose the first game of a series with one of your aces pitching like Sanchez did last night. But tonight is another game and I’m feeling it and I know you all are feeling it. It is Walker time. Walker is going to give the team a solid four innings tonight. I’m feelin’ it!

    Like

  54. Pitching is way up this year, feels like the majority of players are having a bad year.

    Pitching is crazy these days, could it be he new ball?

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I do think hitting is just down. People complain about the Phillies and they had a subpar month of June for sure, but then you look at team hitting stats on MLB from the last 30 days. Phillies in the NL were 4th highest OPS, 6th SLG, 2nd OBP, 2nd AVG. You also look at their ranks with RISP this season and they’re in the top 5 or 6 in every similar stat when they have RISP too. They’re not a prolific offense, but they’re definitely not as dreadful as people make them seem and compared to the rest of the league they’re closer to the top than the bottom.

      Liked by 1 person

  55. JTR is far from a “dime a dozen” catcher, and MLB players who hit .230 are not fungible. JTR is excellent defensively and his pitch calling/framing skills are among the best in the sport. Most importantly, he has become Zack Wheeler’s designated catcher, ala Tim McCarver/Steve Carlton. Yet some super-enlightened posters would discard him like a cheap suit. Incredible!

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    1. No paying him 20 million is incredible. Wheeler is great. Realmuto is his friend but as bad as stubb is .wheeler would still be great. And the money can go to a right hand bar in outfield

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      1. Well JTR’s bat this season has suffered….hopefully if he comes back for two more years he will concentrate in the off-seasons on hitting. The silver lining, his AAV will probably be a lot lower because of his 2025 plate down year. Currently he sits at approx. $24M AAV…..could be offered $15/16M AAV.

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        1. JT the last three years:

          (1) Strikeout rate: 2023: 25.6%; 2024: 24.7%; 2025: 23.8%

          Hmm . . . he’s not striking out more . . . maybe it’s just weak contact . . .

          (2) Average Exit Velocity: 2023: 89.8 mph; 2024: 89.2 mph; 2025: 90.3 mph

          (3) Hard Hit Percentage: 2023: 43.1%; 2024: 46.8%; 2025: 44.5%

          Hmm . . . he’s not hitting the ball more softly than the last couple years . . . So what is it? Well, he’s hitting a few more groundballs, and more importantly a significantly lower percentage of his fly balls are going for home runs — if you’re hitting the ball harder, that last point is mostly a matter of bad luck.

          JT since June 1 (27 games, 109 plate appearances): .304/.349/.363 for a .711 OPS. Yes, the ball hasn’t been going over the fence (and I’ve seen a few homers pulled foul) . . . but the idea that the problem with the team is JT seems off.

          Liked by 2 people

          1. Just to add a little analytics: per Statcast, based on his contact rate and contact quality, JT’s expected batting average this year is .267 and his expected slugging percentage is .406, versus his actual batting average of .252 and his actual slugging percentage of .362. So he’s been a little unlucky.

            Liked by 1 person

  57. You know, while we all lament our lack of reliable bullpen depth Tanner Banks has quietly been pretty good for us. A 3.20 ERA (and 3.14 FIP to back it up) coming into the night is very respectable.

    Not to say that I feel safe with him in high leverage situations or that we don’t need more bullpen help. But he deserves his flowers, at least.

    Liked by 1 person

  58. Just when you’ve thought you’ve seen enough bad losses, the Phillies say “I have another one for you.”

    Oracle Park is just a horror show for the Phillies.

    Like

      1. i know Rob has limited options he can trust, but geez, run seth Johnson kut there. He’s never rpoven he can do it but Romano has proven repeatedly he cant

        Like

      1. True, true!!! But that was Keystone cops outfield play. Last year’s Johan Rojas might have turned that into an out.

        Like

    1. Didnt realize realmuto was hitting 226 with risp. That’s better than I thought. And he is hitting 133 against left hand pitching. 20 million a yr is cheap. He is only one of the problems. Not my money but if he gets two yr 40 million.just adds to the bad Nola contract. Castellanos. Contract . Keep overpaying guys. Next stott will get 6 yrs 150 million.

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      1. First, Realmuto’s lack of production in the last year of his contract was expected. Catchers don’t age well. The Phillies got value from that 5 year Realmuto contract. Yes, it sucks seeing Realmuto struggle offensively, but this is what happens when you give too many years to a contract.

        I hated the Nola and Castellanos contracts the minute they were signed. They both were not going to end well.

        Unfortunately, no arbitration eligible player will be getting a FA contract from the Phillies.

        Like

        1. By the way, I crush DD all the time, but I don’t think they gave Realmuto a contract that was too long. If they had gone any shorter, he would have gone to another team and this has been an excellent contract that has ended PRECISELY the way we expected it would end – with him, at age 34, hopefully, being a serviceable catcher by the end of the contract and he is for his catching alone. He’s just not a star (or close to a star) anymore – so overall this was a very good contract. The mistake here would be to double down and overpay or overextend him going forward because, right now he’s a #8 or 9 hitter with solid defense. It’s worth something, but it’s not worth $15 million a year. It’s a shame they haven’t let Marchan play more because, with more playing time, I think he’d be perfectly fine, both hitting and catching. Personally, I think JT will be signed to a 2 year, $25 million contract or something in that range. Is he worth it? Yeah, maybe or maybe not – but, either way, it’s not the ideal transition plan or best way to manage the payroll, is it?

          Like

          1. I wanted to give Realmuto 4 years but I was ok with the 5th year. At least Realmuto is not negative WAR in his last year so there’s that. 2/25 sounds about right, it would coincide with the end of Wheeler’s contract.

            Like

        2. I dont mind giving a guy a contract when you know he isnt going to be as good in the last few year of it, but you just have to do it to get the deal done. My problem is that it seems like the Phillies like to give the players another contract even after that.

          I have never been the biggest Nola guy, but it is inarguable that they got a ton of value out of his first contract. But I never thought he was a guy you say “we need to lock you up for your career” and give that massive deal to. He was a great draft pick and on his rookie deal and first contract, he was great. But he was showing signs of regression even last year. Let the guys past their prime go! If he signs elsewhere and happens to have one or two more good seasons, it is what it is. Much better than being stuck in this deal until 2030, when hes barely a league average pitcher right now.

          The Eagles do this best; better to let a guy go a little too early than a little too late. The Phillies are the worst at this. When they decide someone in the organization is one of “their guys” they will just keep him around for that reason alone.

          Like

  60. Escobar debut at JS 2/6, 1 BB, 2 RBIs.

    Nori up to .261

    On the other hand, Painter gave up 3 long balls. He’s not saving the big club just yet.

    Kemp now with 5 doubles and broke the Phillies RSIP drought last night. If the Phillies waste trade capital on a veteran who’ll give you the same production I’ll scream. Bullpen bullpen bullpen.

    Liked by 1 person

  61. Cannot see Painter being brought up in July right now…too many speed bumps in AAA…..if he can correct the command over the next two/three starts there is a chance that he can be brought up just before the EOM .He needs to start finding the corners of the plate and stay out of the middle zone…AAA hitters are teeing off on him.

    Like

  62. Well I’m glad I can’t stay awake for these west coast games LOL. Quick Pitch on MLBN gives it to me in roughly a minute.

    I take it Walker pitched pretty good if it was 3-1 going into the 9th.

    I’m less concerned about the big club as much as I am about Painter not looking good.

    Like

    1. ……. but, you missed new ways to lose a ballgame and robbed yourself of that astonished feeling that screams agggghhhhhh!

      Liked by 1 person

    2. Mathematicians must love the sport of baseball…they have stats and metrics for everything. Saw yesterday for the first time in MLB history ….on one official day of baseball…a team started the game on an Inside the Park HR—the A’s…….and another team ended the game on a walk-off Inside the Park HR……you guessed it.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Splain to me:😓😩 You have a runner who they “clock” with a sun dial. He is 437 out of 499 in speed according to statcast. He steals 2nd base barely making it (shock did he really do that)! So, let’s try 3rd, they’ll never suspect he’ll do it again …… Oops …. guess the surprise shock element was lost, huh? Romus, all knowing Karnak, please Splain.

        Like

    3. Walker just did his thing where he throws 92 mph pitches and hoped the opposition hit them at players, and in this case, they did.

      Liked by 1 person

  63. Some guys just don’t come back from Tommy John surgery with the same skill set they had formerly. The Phils’ side of the discussion has been about ‘building up’ Painter to 90 pitches in an outing which might translate to 75 pitches at the MLB. Below that, a guy isn’t really a big league starter.

    I’m shifting to the thought that Painter will expend the 100-110 innings this season with the Iron Pigs. I see him running out of innings more than running out of time.

    If the GM of 29 other teams, I’m on a ‘prove it’ basis when it comes to Painter. If the Phils see Painter as the crown jewel of their future operation, that’s fine. But I’m not giving up players of great value for magic beans. So, the discussion of Painter as untouchable loses relevance. GM’s who pay full price for potential over performance can join Mike Rizzo, who is/was one of the better ones.

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    1. Unless he suddenly takes a huge step forward (always possible) and strings together like 3 dominant starts in a row, I don’t think Painter is going to be promoted this year. As for his performance, while it isn’t great news, it’s not surprising as he continues to gear up and learn the tricks of the trade. People should absolutely make no grand judgments on Painter this year. He’s building up arm strength and, before this year, only had one full year in the minors. He has also shown the ability to throw several innings between 98-100 with a killer curve – so the stuff is there -he’s just a developing player working on pitches and command and building endurance – and while it’s mildly disappointing, his ceiling is still as high as ever. If he weren’t the golden goose (and he still is), they would probably transition him to a relief role, but I think they don’t want to mess with this kid at all (both physically or mentally), so I doubt that happens unless he goes to management as specifically asks to be a reliever for the stretch run and pleads his case.

      Like

      1. And when I reference Painter for a possible relief role, I’m talking about for the rest of this year only, not 2026 moving forward. As I said, the most likely result is that he finishes the year in AAA as a starter, although it’s possible they may place him on the 40-man roster by the end of August (so he’s postseason eligible) and just play it by ear. That wouldn’t be a terrible outcome either.

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        1. Romus, Matt Winkleman had some insights about Andrew Painter especially against lefty hitters. Matt mentioned he needs to work on his Changeup and other secondary pitches as they are waiting for his fastball.

          Like

      2. To earn a promotion as a starter, Painter has to give confidence he can give the Phils 6 RELIABLE innings. But a guy lacking reliable command has no role in the 2025 picture. It has nothing whatsoever to do with Painter appealing for a spot in the pen. He has to explain his value on the 26-man with his performance.

        Like

        1. Well, yeah, if he can’t consistently dominate the minors for 6 reliable innings, he has no place on the Phillies as a starter – no argument there. That said, he has shown the ability to sit between 98-100 for a few innings. If he can do that, and they want to risk transitioning him to that role, he could dominate in short stints with his FB and curve even if his command is not as fine. Whether they want to risk that with their golden boy is another question altogether – I think they will be very reluctant to mess with him and his role.

          Liked by 1 person

  64. But, yeah, Jordan Romano is a problem – not sure at all what they do. That said, Banks and Lazar have more than held their own this year. Banks has been invaluable as the second lefty in the pen with Alvarado’s disappearing act.

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    1. I like Banks and Lazar! Neither are anything special, Banks in particular can get pounded now and then. But both of them attach the strike zone and battle.

      I can’t watch Romano anymore. Gotta do the Familia thing and cut your losses. He is horrible.

      Like

      1. Sometimes they say the great is the enemy of the good. Banks and Lazar aren’t great, but they have been pretty consistently good and this team could use some of that, if only to keep games on track so the high leverage pitchers can be used in high leverage situations. The Romano being blown up in the worst way loop tape is getting old . . . fast.

        Liked by 2 people

        1. Its just so angering to watch. Its like post-season Kimbrel but 10x worse. Its never just a clean inning. Every pitch feels like a prayer.

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  65. The panic on Painter is kind of silly. Hes literally still just coming off a major surgery. I think in todays world, everyone always wants results NOW. Hes working his way back. Maybe he continues to build and can come up and help the team this year; maybe he needs the rest of this year in AAA and a full offseason. But those online (not really talking about here, twitter is a cesspool about this) about how hes now clearly a bust and has no value anymore is just beyond stupid. In fact, one great way in sports to find diamonds in the roughs is to go out and get guys who were top prospects who hit a road bump. Maybe get them for .70 cents on the dollar.

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    1. As an evidence-based person — as I assume you are — it’s getting harder to project Painter having the useful role in 2025 so many of us anticipated. Panic really has nothing to do with it. July 31 will arrive and might reward teams which accurately take stock of the talent they have on hand.

      Like

    2. Worried about Painter’s long term value, nope not at all…

      Did I have a hope that he might be a valuable piece in the BP for the playoffs yes I did

      Like

  66. Wheeler had the complete game on Sunday. Kerkering pitched (and lost) Monday night. Has anyone read/heard why Kerkering wasn’t available to pitch Tuesday night?

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    1. No idea. Kerkering threw 25 high stress pitches but it wasn’t back to back appearances.

      Like

      1. Does anyone know how many leads we have blown in the 9th inning this year. It feels like about 10 to me. We will not go anywhere if we keep trotting out Romano to close. He should be our 6-7th inning guy at most.

        I see the need to get a closer at the deadline. Give up Suarez and Abel for a legit closer with 2+ years of control.

        That would mean TW starting, but that is better than Romano closing.

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        2. 16 (maybe 17 now) blown saves…not sure if all 9th inning…but Phillies were tied with Mainers, and Mets for 6th highest…they had 16 BS. Angels the most with 20 BS…followed by Boston, As, Blue Jays and DBacks

          Strahm and Orion with 4 apiece…..Romano had three, but now 4….Ross has 2 BS…..Banks with one…..the other two BS, who knows

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          1. Romus. Last week vs Reds their announcers stated that 5 teams had not lost leading after 8 innings. Phillies and Tigers were 2. Then Pirates, Royals and forget 5th team. Of course, many of these leads have been blown earlier in the game. I believe Jim may have said a BS can happen as early as the 6th inning last year. Not sure If memory is correct.

            I know it was mentioned during Astros that Phillies had like 15 games where starters had given up 2 runs or less in these games and were only 5-10 in those games.

            Great pitching gives you a chance but do need to score some. Pirates mentioned other day Skenes had a 1.74 ERA in his last 13 starts but only 1 win in those games.

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  68. Realmuto is starting a day game after a night game. This is getting ridiculous. There are now multiple years of evidence that he plays better with more rest. Catchers don’t play a day game after a night game.

    Like

  70. Was a win today. A very nice one. Hope one of you guys had the Phillies in the 13 run pool. Remember those?

    Could’ve won all three in this series. Should’ve won two of the games. Jeckel/Hyde Luzardo was Dr. Jeckel today.

    Moffo – They’re paying Romano so they’re keeping him. I don’t believe we’ll see him in many more high leverage games.

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  71. On the broadcast last night, they put up a graphic that said the Phillies were 45-1 when leading after 7 innings. Of course, by the end of that game, it was 45-2.

    Good win today. Hoping this is the start of a hot streak by Bryce.

    Like

  72. Luzardo could have 11 or 12 days off before his next start…if they decide to restart the rotation with Wheeler on Friday the 18th vs the Angels. Assume Wheeler pitches one inning on Tuesday in his home town of Atlanta..

    Like

  73. Chandler Simpson is a great comp for the type of MLB player Justin Crawford will be. Except Crawford is going to be a better pro. Here is why.

    First, they have very similar stats on AAA with 4 very significant differences. 3 of the 4 differences are in Crawford’s favor:
    1. Crawford is 3.5 years younger than Simpson
    2. Crawford hits the ball much harder. Simpson’s ave EV is 84 vs 90 for Crawford. Simpson’s hard hit rate is 15% vs 42% for Crawford.
    3. Crawford takes a lot more walks. 11.2% vs 5.8%
    4. Simpson strikes out less 9.6% vs 17.4%

    Simpson’s MLB batting line: .310/.341/.396 with a BABIP of .342. That BABIP is in line with his minor league metrics. Elite speed plays at the MLB level too. So that BABIP does not strike me as “lucky.” Simpson has 25 stolen bases in 50 games. He is electric. Energy and speed fires up the team.

    Now let’s talk about the elephant in the room…ground ball rate. Simpson has a GB % in MLB of 57.2%. Again, elite speed plays at the MLB level.

    I continue to believe that over focus on Crawford’s ground ball rate is lazy analysis. BABIP data clearly shows for non-home run hitters, a ground ball is better than a fly ball. Especially those with elite speed. I think Crawford is going to be an extremely productive MLB player for a long career. He is not a trade chip for a rental RP.

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    1. Spot on analysis…….because of his size and projectable muscle gain, Crawford should also have a higher ISO or SLG %- just more power overall in driving the ball. Simpson reminds me of a guy in the mold of Ben Revere.

      Liked by 1 person

    2. I’m hoping to see it in action in the second half nut Kepler has to go to make it work…

      $8 mil last year for Merrifield; $10 mil this year for Kepler is not a productive return on invested dollars.

      Like

      1. Imagine if DD re-upped with Hayes a RHB for $4 mil then took the remaining $14.5 million to find a better RP.

        Maton only got $2 mil from the Cardinals and he was fantastic against us and with the Mets last year.

        Hoffman ended up getting an AAV of around $11 million. Ok so maybe you didn’t want to commit that for 3 yrs but there were other options.

        Basically DD allocated $18.5 million to 2 shots in the dark.

        Like

        1. I can. The fanbase, including many here, would have screamed bloody murder that DD was just running it back with the exact same team that failed last year. Hayes is terrible, Hoffman just got slaughtered in the playoffs. etc.

          It’s really too bad DD doesn’t have the benefit of seeing 90 games being played in 2025 beforehand to know which moves might have worked out better.

          Like

          1. Haha – so true.

            This year, I thought his decision not to sign either of Hoffman or Estevez (not both – that was never going to happen) was odd.

            But I thought his move to sign Kepler was a good one – by all objective measures, Kepler looked like a bounce-back candidate. It just didn’t happen.

            Of course, his occasional lapses aside, the Luzardo trade was phenomenal. Gotta give him a lot of credit for that.

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            1. Kepler really looked like a minor league signing with an invite to Spring Training. The $10M deal blew me away. I would have preferred Hayes at $4M. I knew the guy was better than what he showed us.

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            2. The thing is with the bullpen, if Alvarado hadn’t gotten suspended and continued to pitch like he had prior the bullpen would be a minor issue, not a major one. They might now be searching for depth arm to add depth and not looking for a high-leverage guy.

              DD took a flyer on Romano and it didn’t work but it only became a real issue with the Alvarado suspension. Romano would now be pitching in the 6th inning of most games and a combination of Banks, Kerkering, Strahm, and Alvarado would be covering the late innings mostly effectively.

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    3. Good comp. I wasn’t that familiar with Simpson, but agree that Crawford is a much better prospect.

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    4. V1, agree with your analysis about Justin Crawford. What is wrong with a Juan Pierre type of player – he does everything but hit for power consistently. The Phillies sure could use his base stealing threat when the big bats go silent.

      Like

  74. I didnt get a chance to see the game last night, but i hope the Phillies took some notes. 42 at bats with 9 SO. Not bad for them. I bet those SO didn’t come with runners in scoring position.

    Contact.. put the ball in play. I sense Crawford could help with this, in advancing the runners. He has to be up after the deadline.. unless he is a trade piece. The only reason he could still be down there is to not spoil his trade value imo

    Like

    3. Do they really think his trade value tanks if he doesnt light the world on fire in his first two weeks in the bigs?

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  75. Romus. Just a quick note. Surgery for grandson went well. They were able to repair the ligament with the bridge. Thanks for your well wishes.

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  76. Verlander may be done. I can’t argue that. I’m amazed that teams will still give him and Scherzer $12-15M to pitch for them. But in Verlander’s defense, he did have a quality start yesterday afternoon with 6 IP and 2 ERs.

    With those two still being offered that kind of money even at their age and with very so-so numbers, that’s why I believe there is a team out there that will take on half of Walker’s salary next season.

    Like

      1. Being in last place, 10 games under .500, cannot see the O’s trading for Walker in the next few weeks, but rather in the off-season. And if the Phillies pick up $9M of his ’26 salary, then he is gone.

        Like

  77. Prediction…at the end of the trade deadline…a prospect who is currently ranked 12-20 on our list will be a top 5 prospect.

    DD is going to empty out the farm. All in on the Wheeler window.

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    1. sure hope not. I really think that would be fools gold. I think DD has already told us clearly that some of our starting pitch will be moved to the bullpen for the playoffs. If I was king of the world, I would probably go after Chapman from the Red Sox to close bring up Crawford and put him in centerfield and platoon marsh and Kepler and left. Everyone acknowledges that the baseball playoffs are a real crapshoot now. With our starting pitching, there’s no reason the Phillies don’t have as good as shot as any other team and I think we match up real well with the Dodgers

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    2. Don’t think it will be that extreme, but they have 6 players ranked in the top-100. I expect 2-3 of them will be somewhere else by August.

      My guess would be Miller, Escobar, and Abel.

      Like

  78. V1, I hope not as there are competent players in the Phillies pipeline in a long time. I don’t think John Middleton will allow Dombrowski to empty the minors.

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    1. I think you are wrong. I am pretty sure the Phillies are going to move 3-4 of our top 10 prospects (sans painter). This is a win now situation with this rotation and Harper/schwarber in back end of their primes. It makes zero sense to fall short again.

      Like

  79. V1, Gelb with a trade-deadline piece today reports that execs on opposing teams are saying they’re getting the impression DD will trade top prospects to get players who are more than rentals in order to take advantage of that Wheeler window.

    Liked by 1 person

  80. Read several trade proposals on THE ATHLETIC and others from Jim Bowden who says Phils should not trade Abel for any reason other than to get top drawer talent – he would think Phils would part with Miller and others in a swap for Guardians Classe and Hinkie’s favorite player Steven Kwan. According to Bowden – the two Guardians would be the key to winning a championship for Phillies and that would possibly call for trading Abel and others.

    Apart from Bowden suggestions – I think a great addition would be Harrison Bader – he is having a solid season and can still hit, and run – and is a competent fielder who can play all OF slots. He would – I think – be a modest cost.

    Like

  81. Who can guess the pitchers, both “closers” since May 1st

    Pitcher #1 – 3-2, 23 ip, 22 h, 4 bs, 6.65 ERA 9 BB 29 K

    Pitcher #2 – 1-3 22 ip, 21 h, 1 bs, 5.24 ERA 8 BB 6 K

    Pitcher #1 many wish was a Phillie and Pitcher #2 everyone wants to DFA.

    Yes, #1 is Jeff Hoffman and #2 is Romano.

    Like

    1. Unfortunately, taking the whole season or even since the start of June paints a much bleaker picture for that comparison.

      You specifically cut out one of Romano’s awful stretches while keeping in Hoffman’s worst stretch (by far) by starting in May.

      I’m sure we’d be apprehensive about Hoffman, too, but Romano has simply been worse.

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      1. not advocating for Romano either. Point is Hoffman has been erratic just like Romano has been.

        Like

    2. Now do since June 1st.

      In 15 appearances, Hoffman is 2-0 with 9 saves, one blown save, and a 1.17 ERA as a closer.

      In 13 appearances, Romano is 1-3 with one hold, a blown save, and a 7.71 ERA in what has become a non-closer role (in his last 9 appearances).

      Like

        1. Yeah, but you tried to pass them off as both being closers since May 1st and both being equally erratic. Neither of which has been true for a while now.

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          1. passed nothing off. Closer was in parentheses specifically because Romano was being treated like a closer until he wasn’t.

            And yes, Hoffman was erratic since May, with a bad May and a good June. Not sure I understand the point but not a hill I dying on either .

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            1. sorry, meant quotes. Either you didn’t get the point or I wasn’t clear but no need to be obnoxious in response. Have a good evening and thanks for “correcting” me.

              Like

  82. “After a tough start with Single-A Clearwater, Nori batted .304 in June with a .387 on-base percentage, and he’s batting .280 in July with a .438 on-base percentage.“…..Nori could also be added value in a package deal.

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    1. OR Nori can replace some of the guys the organization is about to lose in the system.

      I’m hoping we get to keep 1 of /Tait/Escobar/Miller pairing that with Painter and Crawford and hopefully thats the next wave of Philly ballplayers.

      Like

  83. If I get it, you guys are boarding the Wheeler train (a chance at a WS 2025 — 2027), emptying the farm, then we suck for the next 5-6 years and watch some of the guys we traded play in the WS .. is that the deal?

    What guarantee do we have Wheeler stays on top of his game? How are Verlander and Scherzer doing?

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Skeet…..you nailed it. Dombrowski need to play hardball with the other teams’ GMs and try to hold the benevolence to a minimum. Lets not harvest the farm too early.

      Like

  84. Here’s one for you, 3up.

    LF#1 240PA 31R 57H 9/2B 6/3B 13HR 32RBI 14BB 58SO .256

    LF#2 306 PA 39R 57H 14/2B 0/3B 10HR 31RBI 34BB 64SO .213

    Like

    2. And Kody Clemens hit his 11th homer today in like 160 plate appearances, so, yeah, you can find Kepler-level production for a lot less than $10M

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      1. problem with this type of comparison is we now know how those guys are hitting. Obviously if it was known that Kepler would not hit they never would have signed him.

        but in December, 2024 which of those 3 players would everyone expect to be better?

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        1. If I had to pick which one would be the better hitter?? Maybe Max Kepler, but only by a little. I think we all expect Moniak to be a 5th OF or in triple-A. Clemens we figured would hit like .220 with some big hits here and there and some pop if used in favorable matchups. And I honestly wasn’t expecting much from Kepler. Maybe .245 with 15 homers. He just seemed like a guy who worthy of a minor league contract with an invite to Spring Training.

          Basically, all 3 kinda stink and I wanted none on the Phillies. Mayyybe Clemens to be a lefty pinch hitter, but what good does that really do this team, ya know?

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  85. If it is the Guardians Clase and Kwan that are on Dombrowski’s wish list to get…….INO, will cost at least 3 top prospects….Aidan MIller, Mick Abel (I assume) and Aroon Escobar.In anticipation if Miller is eventually traded….then they may draft Josh Hammond or Xavier Neyens …both power guys that can play 3B.

    Like

    2. The angle of the video is strange. Can’t tell if it’s a fastball, sinker, cutter or slider.

      Like

    2. Thinking of What D.D might do at trade deadline. I don’t trust him anymore. Most of his winter moves have backfired. I only saw Painter 4 times. And Crawford about 6. Painter 22 yrs old with elite stuff.i don t want to move him. Hate to move Crawford. But if I get back a right hand bat, yes do it. Batista from Baltimore does couple lesser prospects get him . Like Anthony and Cabrera?

      Like

      1. Believe it or not Seranthony-FIP 3.5 and Soto-FIP 3.2, have had decent seasons for the Os…..but like most relievers who knows what tomorrow brings…plus the Os are not playing in any pressure games anymore..

        Like

  90. Anyone but Crawford Painter and Escobar I’m ok with…

    Clase makes a lot of sense but not Kwan. If I can get Clase for Cabrera or Abel sure but I’d much rather have Chapman who is sporting a .78 WHIP over 13K per 9. He should command much less and without Alvarado in the playoffs I’d much rather have him facing the likes of Soto, Ohtani and Freeman in high leverage. Red Sox though could see themselves as still in it and not want to move him. They are 9-1 in their last 10 and starting to find themselves after moving on from Devers.

    And if I can get Buxton for Nori or Tait sure. Buxton in a vacuum is a nice player but he’s hurt constantly, is 31 now and owed $45 million for his age 32-33-34 seasons. His contract also includes up to $11 million in each of those seasons in performance bonuses (whatever those are)

    In regard to judging DD on hindsight that is how its done in the industry. You can’t go WS loss, NLCS Loss, NLDS loss and think that’s going in the right direction.

    At least not in my book when your payroll is maxed out and in everyone of those seasons you are spending prospect capital to solve needs you didn’t fix in the off seasons.

    But then maybe Middleton doesn’t see it that way and his is the only opinion that matters.

    Like

    2. My guess is that the Twins may want a ton for Buxton – it would be WAY more than Tait or Nori – way more. That said, Buxton might be the perfect player for this team. Yes, he’s always injured, but so is Bryce Harper. But Buxton is an elite talent and a potentially massive difference-maker (at a position of need, no less!) for the postseason and his salary is extremely affordable for the next three years. I would do my best not to move Painter or Escobar. But if it costs something like Crawford, Tait and McFarlane – I bite the bullet and do it. It would hurt a little, but there’s no other affordable elite player that I can think who I think is truly in play and could push this team over the top.

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  91. Just saw an article on Oracle Park and Phillies history. Looks like a venue they need to avoid in playoffs. Giants now hold tie breaker if that came into play. Not much success there ever for Phillies.

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    1. big stuff. First full year back from injury. Has thrown 15 straight scoreless innings. Had back to back 5 inning, not hit starts

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  93. I’m not enthusiatic about moving top guys and Painter still off limits but dhuran or clase are under control for multiple years amd affordable. I think id rather do it now than keep giving up prospects for relievers every trade deadline for the next few years. Almost like ripping the bandaid off now than a slow bleed that we die from.

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    1. Phillies farm system isnt a good one to compare it to but our top prospects over the past decade – would you have traded them?

      first, guys we did trade. Amd ignore the return. Whether or not that worked out, the idea is more what im looking at.

      Caba – still young but horrible season this year

      Lee – hitting .245 in AA

      O-Hoppe – good catcher but .230 w a .260 obp (yikes). Still young but doesnt look like a generational talent.

      Guys we didnt trade. Would you, with retrospect, trade these guys for an elite closer?

      Stott, Abel, Spencer Howard, Alec Bohm, Scott Kingery? Obviously I’m being selective and the Phillies have had a bad farm system but all of the guys could have been replaceable and i would, if in contetion and the gift of hindsight, traded for an elite closer.

      The Mets traded top prospect Jared Kelenic and Justin dunn for edwin diaz. They have no regrets.

      Padres no regret trading for Hader even though they didnt retain him long term

      cubs gave up a lot for Chapman but won a world series amd torres wasnt an all star level player. I dont think chapman had term either

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      1. i see the black hole in CF and would love to have crawford solve it. I look at the frustrations w lack of 3b power and want Miller to solve it. I look at the darkness at catcher post JT (and kind of present JT) and love the idea of Tait but. . . . I dont know if any will pan out. Escobar and Miller make each other expendable.

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