Phillies took 2 of 3 from the Atlanta Braves.
This is your Phillies discussion.
Comments during/after the Braves series are approaching 300. Time for a new discussion.
I don’t think we’ve heard either of our extension candidates’ representatives say they would not negotiate during the season. So, we can expect that negotiations are still being held and that that we may get the good/bad news of extensions sometime this summer.
Recent comments have led me to do a way-too-early look at the 2025-26 offseason roster and payroll information. Here’s some preliminary information.
- 7 guaranteed contracts: $162,882,618, CBT cost is about the same (Wheeler, Harper, Turner, Nola, Castellanos, Walker, Sanchez).
- $22,666,667 in sunk costs (player benefits, estimated salary for the minor league players, “zero-to-three-year” bonus pool).
- 9 arbitration eligible players: $43M estimate (Luzardo, Bohm, Stott, Marsh, Sosa, Ruiz, Hernandez, Banks, Marchan).
- Minimum salary for pre-arbitration players is $780K (at least three – Kerkering, Rojas, and Painter or Abel, and maybe Wilson).
- 2 options to consider
- Strahm: Club option for $4.5M with additional $1M for 40, 50, 60 innings in 2025 guaranteed $7.5M if reaches 60 innings in 2025 (23.1 IP as of 5/29).
- Alvarado: Club option for $9.0M with a $500K buyout. (Decline option and offer to re-sign for less?)
- Painter and Crawford lead the way for inclusion on the 40-man roster
- 6 free agents that will need to be replaced (Realmuto, Schwarber, Kepler, Suarez, Romano, Ross). Extensions for Schwarber and Realmuto and promoting Abel or Painter to the starting rotation in place of Suarez/Walker, reduce needs to 3 players.
If they extend Schwarber and Realmuto, we can expect a combined salary in excess of $40M. Which would bring their costs up over $280M.
The active roster would look something like this –
- SP: Wheeler, Nola, Sanchez, Luzardo, Abel or Painter
- RP: Kerkering, Strahm, Walker, Ruiz, Hernandez, Banks, PLUS 2
- C: Realmuto
- INF: Harper, Stott, Turner, Bohm
- OF: Marsh, Rojas, Castellano
- DH: Schwarber
- Bench: Marchan, Sosa, Wilson, PLUS 1
Ideally, the PLUS 1 on the bench would be a right-handed power hitting left fielder that would push Marsh and Rojas into a platoon in CF and the fourth bench guy.
Ideally, we would like one of the PLUS 2 relievers to be a closer. And, we would probably be able to make a case for upgrading 2-3 of the incumbents.
Realistically, if Schwarber and Realmuto are extended, then the Phillies will likely be shopping from the bargain bins again to fill out their roster.
Important Dates
- April 4, 2025: MiLB roster limits decrease from 175 to 165 players
- June 2, 2025: DSL league play begins
- August 19, 2025: End of DSL regular season
- Playoffs TBD: 8 teams, 3 best-of-three rounds
- 6 division winners, 2 wild cards
- July 24, 2025: End of FCL regular season
- July 26, 2025: One-game FCL semi-final
- July 27-29: Best of three FCL finals
- July 31, 2025: MLB trade deadline at 6:00 P.M. EST
- Note: These dates will be used unless/until notified differently.
Transactions (Bold text indicates transactions that posted after the date listed)
5/29/2025 – Toronto Blue Jays traded LHP Josh Walker to Phillies.
5/29/2025 – Phillies recalled RHP Brett de Geus from Lehigh Valley
5/29/2025 – LHP Josh Walker assigned to Lehigh Valley
5/29/2025 – Lehigh Valley sent 3B Matt Kroon on a rehab assignment to Jersey Shore
5/29/2025 – Reading placed RHP Wen-Hui Pan on the FS IL
5/29/2025 – Reading sent RHP Griff McGarry on a rehab assignment to Clearwater
5/29/2025 – Jersey Shore transferred RHP Micah Ottenbreit from the 7- to the 60-day IL
5/29/2025 – Jersey Shore BlueClaws activated OF Jordan Viars from the Development List
5/29/2025 – Clearwater placed LHP Kleyderve Andrade on the FS IL
5/29/2025 – Clearwater placed RHP Tegan Cain on the FS IL
5/29/2025 – Clearwater Threshers placed RHP Kyler Carmack on the FS IL
5/29/2025 – DSL Phillies Red placed RHP Geremi Delpino on the 60-day IL
5/29/2025 – DSL Phillies Red placed OF Esterling Rodriguez on the 60-day IL
5/28/2025 – RHP Lucas Sims assigned to Lehigh Valley from FCL Phillies
5/27/2025 – Lehigh Valley placed RHP Nabil Crismatt on the 7-day IL retroactive to 5/24
5/27/2025 – RHP Gabe Mosser assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading
5/27/2025 – Reading activated LHP Andrew Walling from the 7-day IL
5/27/2025 – Reading transferred RHP Jack Dallas to the Development List
5/27/2025 – SS Cole Roberts assigned to Reading from Jersey Shore
5/27/2025 – 2B Trent Farquhar assigned to Jersey Shore from Reading
5/27/2025 – RHP Maicol Lauriano assigned to DSL Phillies Red
5/26/2025 – Phillies signed FA 1B Alex Binelas to an MiLB contract
5/26/2025 – 1B Alex Binelas assigned to Reading
5/26/2025 – FCL Phillies activated SS Nolan Beltran from the 7-day IL
5/24/2025 – Clearwater activated RHP Orlando Gonzalez from the 7-day IL
5/24/2025 – Clearwater transferred RHP Ryan Dromboski to the Development List
5/23/2025 – Philadelphia Phillies signed free agent RHP Cristhian Espinosa to an MiLB contract
5/23/2025 – Reading placed RHP Moisés Chace on the FS IL
5/23/2025 – Reading sent RHP Eiberson Castellano on a rehab assignment to Jersey Shore
5/23/2025 – Reading sent LHP Andrew Walling on a rehab assignment to Jersey Shore
5/23/2025 – C Angel Mata assigned to FCL Phillies from Clearwater
5/23/2025 – RHP Cristhian Espinosa assigned to DSL Phillies Red
5/23/2025 – C Nelson Prieto assigned to DSL Phillies Red
5/23/2025 – DSL Phillies White placed RHP Richard Reyes on the 60-day IL
5/23/2025 – RHP Filippo Sabatini assigned to DSL Phillies White
5/23/2025 – C Deivis Velasquez assigned to DSL Phillies White
5/22/2025 – Jersey Shore activated OF Eduardo Lopez from the 7-day IL
5/17/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated C Yhoan Escalona
5/16/2025 – Philadelphia Phillies signed free agent C Rey Cruz to an MiLB contract
5/16/2025 – C Rey Cruz assigned to DSL Phillies White
5/03/2025 – Lehigh Valley transferred RHP John McMillon to the Development List
5/01/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated RHP Daniel Robert
Argh! I didn’t get my comment in fast enough on the last thread.
This is now the 4th season in a row that we really haven’t had any outfielders to be proud of. I would love to see at least one of these three (fine, two…as I roll my eyes) holes filled this trade deadline.
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This team needs a freaking right-handed power hitter. The type of guy a pitcher is truly afraid to face. Casty is NOT that guy and his non-hitting skills are non-existent.
Let’s be honest, we are desperate for this type of guy, but that doesn’t mean we should do crazy things like trading a lot for a Mike Trout contract black hole – it’s like all of these NFL teams thinking that Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson will solve their problems. Spoiler alert – they won’t!
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They had their chances to get a guy like that ….Jorge Soler…but decided to pass on him. The feeling they did not need to go that road. Soler has plenty of power, not much of a BA. And he has been well traveled, on 5/6 teams in the last 4 years.
They can still trade for a Luis Robert of the WSox….but it will cost them. But yet another guy who came on strong early in his career and now is not what was expected.
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But Soler isn’t even a league average hitter. It’s easy enough to say we didn’t fill a hole, but I’m not upset we didn’t sign a bat-first (read: bat-only) player who forgot his bat just because he’s right-handed.
Also, if Robert costs us anything other than lottery tickets he’s not worth it. His numbers last year were concerning. His numbers now are downright frightening. It’s entirely possible a change of scenery gets him back on track, but it’s not worth giving up a top prospect on a gamble.
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Yeah….that was exactly my meaning above. Right hand power bats are there…..but are they worth it. They come with other warts. These guys are just not falling off trees.
One guy in the past who seem to be in that category but then did well in the right circumstances when teams took a chance on him was Adam Duvall.
I am not sure there is one out there no was a free agent who is worth signing…..in a trade it can cost one or two from the farm system.
Wilson may yet come around to what they want.
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I still say the Phillies are the mix of 4 teams that can win the WS; The Dodgers, Yankees Mets and us. Maybe throw in a 5th sleeper team that gets hot late but not likely this season.
With where we are with payroll and 3 major players going to FA I don’t see it as wise to trade any of our best prospects.
Sometimes you have to eat a little crow and retreat some.
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This will be an interesting 10 months for the front office. So many directions they can go with extensions, trades, free agents, and prospects. I’m hoping they smartly utilize their internal resources and don’t trade or sign for silly contracts that block the likes of Crawford, Miller, Abel, and Painter (whoever is left of this core 4 after the deadline/offseason). I’m in the camp that, as much as I like him, would only like to see JT brought back if it’s a 1-2 year deal for no more than $10 million/yr. And if he’s back, he should play 4x/wk and Marchan 2-3x. Schwarber should be brought back, but not if he’s asking for guaranteed 5 years.
We need to prioritize some youth and cheaper contracts to keep sustained winning going.
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This season may be a probation season for some of the key players…..Marsh, Bohm, and /or JTR . Max K. probably moves on, unless these last four months he becomes a mini-Ut;ey at the plate. And maybe Walker is traded.
You are correct……many directions await them. And if they fail to live up to expectations again at the end, changes have to be made.
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its a tough call, for sure.
Unpopular take but maybe this is the last year you run this group out, record be damned. Next year you comeback with Tucker, Crawford,Kemp (3B), and Hoskins (DH) vs Schwarber, Realmuto, Bohm, Marsh. Maybe you do trade for Contreas to replace Realmuto, or another young prospect at the deadline. A lot of ways to go, that shoudl focus on keeping the SR at its currently level. Fade out Wheeler,Nola, Ranger for Painter, Luzardo, Sanchez & Abel. Most have Schwarber getting resigned. I’d be all for it, but when it starts getting into 5 years… seems like that could go bad real fast for 2 years of limited roster moves. That’s when i start looking at Tucker & his cost long term. Tough call…
Stott,Turner, Harper,Tucker,Hoskins,Castellanos, Kemp, Contreas,Crawford -I kind of like it.
Vs
Stott,Turner,Harper, Schwarber,Castellanos,Realmuto, Bohm/Sosa, Crawford, Marsh/Kemp
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Tac…..you pretty well strategically mapped out the plan for the next decade. That is what John Middleton wants…a man with vision.
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Ha! Well if you could put in a good word for me… I’d sure appreciate it! I can also help the players with blurring the ethical lines… like Alvarado… no way he gets caught with me on the payroll!
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Tonight Abel’s turn to face that loaded Tides team and lineup.
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Abel is really having a great season. So refreshing after last year’s disaster.
https://x.com/Mitch_Rupert/status/1928610735543779574
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Someone may have already touched on this but I’m really excited. The Phillies may have potentially hit on back to back 1st round picks. And pitchers no less. Ferguson Jenkins -> Cole Hamels -> Aaron Nola -> Abel & Painter? Did I miss someone? Now if Escobar can be the superstar Latin player we have struggled to discover that would be awesome.
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Abel really on tonite……6Ks in 4 innings so far….shutting out the Tides.
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Phillies seem to be on sedatives. I’m glad Abel’s having a good night. The big team could use a shot of adrenaline — it was ‘Walkerized’ tonight.
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Abel 4.2 innings 4 Hs 1 R 0 ER 3 BBs 8 Ks 91-59
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Scott Kingery is now an Angel. 1 for 3 in his first game.
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If you have to know …. it is “the uniforms” they just affect me with a blue feeling that I could not shake. Everything went ground under, just depressing!
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This morning I’m reading comments by Thomson that suggest Abel might be back this week to replace Walker.
We’ll need every bit of pitching we can get, because it’s clear that this lineup will not consistently score. Of the nine hitters you’re only getting adequate production from 4 (I include Stott in the 4, but won’t die on that hill). You can carry a defensive specialist at CF or C if you have more power elsewhere, but when your 3B, LF, RF are already more for singles and doubles, or don’t hit for average, it’s difficult to score when Harper or Schwarber are out.
Marsh is not a starting OF on a first division team. Bohm is just frustrating.
I hear Stark this week saying that the Phillies pitchers depend on JT so much now that JT will almost certainly be back.
The Phillies haven’t drafted impact bats since Utley, Rollins and Howard. And that’s a while. If you buy the bats, you usually have to wait until they are already about to decline.
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Hoskins?
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well in fairness… the scouting team did, they just had big whiffs at the wrong time. Rudolph to Moniak – Haslely really hurts. IMO, those 3 players lack of development cost the team O’Hoppe. Any one of them prevent the Marsh/O’Hoppe trade.
I can see Realmuto back for the reasons stark mentioned. Wheeler is making 42mil a year. Im sure he has a say in Realmuto coming back. Not sure you’d want to mess with their playoff success. Realmuto is setting up pitch sequences during the season for the post season. A rookie isnt doing that. Greg Maddux would do that crap.
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Hard to say that the Moniak pick was a whiff, given the alternatives. It was a terrible draft year. Look at the first 30 picks in the 2016 draft — Moniak is a few homers away from passing Nick Senzel (who is now in the minors) for most homers hit by a player picked in the first 30 picks of that draft. It’s 9 years since that draft and the first 30 picks don’t have a single 9 WAR player yet, and only five players even at 5 WAR. Sure, with hindsight, the best pick available by far was the 32nd pick, Will Smith, and there was the 59th pick, Bryan Reynolds, or the 64th pick, Pete Alonso, or the 111th pick, Corbin Burnes . . .but in June of 2016 no one with the 1st pick in the draft would have picked any of those guys.
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thats fair… but I am saying … they missed 3 years in a row… or at least on 3 OF in a row. Cornelius, Moniak, and Haslely. If any one of them developed, you likely still have O’Hoppe. I get the trade, and tht you can’t win all them all. That one to me stings a bit more in the win now mode than it would during a rebuild.
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The baseball draft is the biggest crapshoot in sports. And it was worse in 2016 because it wasn’t considered a strong draft class and there wasn’t a consensus #1 pick. The Phillies rolled the dice with Moniak to save some cash to give to Gowdy and it didn’t work out. It happens. You would be very surprised to learn that it happens way more than you think. And it’s going to happen again in the future.
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Yes, forgot Hoskins. That said, he was a later round pick, so his development was fortuitous, not planned.
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Really great breakdown of the Phillies salary situation, Jim. It only underscores the importance of drafting and developing impact players. I am higher on the current group of prospects than I have been in a long time.
I think that we have 2 legit starting pitchers. Painter is a clear 1 and Mick is a 2 or 3. You have to hold on to both unless you are getting a young controllable player back.
Crawford looks MLB ready for me. Aidan is at least a year away and Escobar and Tait are 2-3 years away. But all 4 look like impact MLB players. You cannot trade any of them for a rental. The only deal for any of them would also have to be for a young, controllable player.
I am also very intrigued by Otto and Keaton. Frankly, I don’t understand why people are ignoring Keaton. He won a gold glove as a first baseman and the kid rakes everywhere he goes. I know it is doubles power right now but the hit tool is exceptional. Obviously, Harper is blocking him at first, but I see Harper as a DH pretty soon. Resigning Schwarber complicates that. But still Keaton is a real prospect imo.
That’s not to mention the other lottery tickets like Burkholder, Nori or Chace. And our upcoming draft. We really have drafted well.
I am pretty high on our prospect pool.
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I like to think Keaton cold have a similar progression like Norristown’s, DBack’s and now Astros’ first basemen Christian Walker. He broke out in his age28 season, after spending over 3 years in AAA ball. Keaton does not have the HR power Walker showed in the minors but he does have a notch better hit tool with the peripherals.
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could vs cold
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I honestly don’t understand his lack of homers. Keaton is a big man. And he barrels the baseball often. I guess his bat path is too flat?
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Yes…it would be nice if the Phillies are aware of anything about his swing path that produces a good amount of a LD% but a lower elevated launch angle, and in those regards, if they recommended any changes. Before this current pro-development group, they would recommend changes for some of their prospects, for example OFer Adam Haseley for one…was not successful in the long run.
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Miller has now crept up to 241/704, with his 5th HR last night. Given how abysmal his first month was, really not bad. KLAW’s recent high ranking stressed his slow start was nothing to worry about. But still I can’t see him ready for the big club next spring.
If Abel is traded for a relief pitcher–especially without trying him just for this year as one, a la rookie David Price–I’m going to scream.
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Yes, Jim’s analisis points to zero flexibility, everything is pending on the farm.
You have to wonder if a major shake up is in order this off-season.
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Devils advocate:
Status quo moves: Resign Schwarber & Realmuto. Let Ranger walk. Promote Crawford in SP. Pick up Alvarado’s option.
Major Shakeup moves: Let Schwarber, Ranger, Possibly Realmuto walk. Trade Nola, Bohm, and Marsh (means you can’t trade Abel now), Bring in Tucker to a crazy deal. Promote Crawford and Kemp. Turner goes to OF or 3B when Miller is ready the following year. Bring in a bat for DH.
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If your shake up moves don’t occur until the offseason, you can’t just trade Nola. Depending on the interpretation of the rule, Nola reaches full 10-5 rights on June 30th or July 15th. He started the season with 9 years and 76 days of service time. The following three statements in quotes are from MLB’s definition of service time.
“Each Major League regular season consists of 187 days, and each day spent on the active roster or injured list earns a player one day of service time.”
“A player is deemed to have reached “one year” of Major League service upon accruing 172 days in a given year.”
“Players with at least 10 years of Major League service who have spent the past five consecutive seasons with the same team earn “10-and-5″ rights. Under these circumstances, a player can veto any trade scenario that is proposed. In essence, 10-and-5 rights function as a full no-trade clause.”
The season started on March 27th. Nola reaches 172 days of service on June 30th (the 96 days from March, April, May, and June – 5 +30 +31 + 30). If the interpretation is that he needs 187 days because it occurs mid-season, then the additional 15 days pushes his accrual date to July 15th. In either case, Nola will have 10-5 rights before the deadline and certainly by the offseason.
Things change, but I can’t believe that the Phillies signed Nola to a virtually untradeable contract with the intention of trading him. However, they did make provision for a $1M assignment bonus in that contract if a trade occurs in 2024 or 2025. So, they’re saying there’s a chance, but the window of opportunity is closing.
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A lot to say, because they could go a lot of ways. Ultimately, i believe one of the goals of the FO should be to reset the CBA tax penalties for the upcoming retool window. Only so many moves to do that. I dont see Nola getting traded as likely, and I’d find it pretty ballsy for DD to trade him at the deadline. He’d Likely want to extend Ranger if he did soon after. Gotta wonder if the FO would have let him walk if they knew Wheeler, Luzardo, Painter, Sanchez, Abel was probably,, with a decision on Ranger looming. One of the few teams I could see… are the Orioles. DD knows them, and it would be a retool move for the obirds. It’s exactly what they need. They had Burnes, but he bolted… which is kind of telling how poorly run they are. I’d expect the Phils to have to throw money in as well. Still don’t see it, but thats one of the few major shakeup moves to be had other than coupling Walker with a top prospect to take the salary dump at the deadline. Im sure that woudl go over great with the fan base! If the FO doesnt go that way … i see them running it back for the most part. Not the end of the world, but Im not going to get excited.
For what it is worth, I am a Nola Phan too, one of the few its seems. I think he can bounce back. He’s made a lot of adjustments over the years. Just feel like he’s been around forever so the teams all know his Aresnal too well. He needs a new tweak to keep the hitters honest even if his ankle was truly bothering him.
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I don’t think the Phils match up with the Orioles this time around but they do with the Guardians. Money is a consideration for them as they can’t pay for non-performing players the way the Phils can.
To the Guardians:
Ranger Suarez, Brandon Marsh (OR less likely Weston Wilson), Keaton Anthony and Jean Cabrera
To the Phils:
RP Cade Smith, OF Lane Thomas, C Cooper Ingle, and OF Jaison Chourio
Thomas isn’t the player he was formerly and is on an expiring contract. If a return to the NL revives his career, he can platoon in LF. Smith is a #3 in the Guardians pen and could be that or better in Philadelphia. He’s under team control.
The prospects back and forth address team needs.
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Not bad. Personally Im either looking to double down on this group and basically run it back… or you gotta have a major shakeup. I love Nola, but he would be a major shakeup. I think the SR is strong enough to make that move. The orioles matchup because they can easily afford the contract, they need pitching bad, and they are considered a poorly run organization. Hard for them to attract FA. Getting Nola’s salary off the books is the motivation. Orioles have a lot of players to deal. My target would Basillo or Westburg. Orioles maybe way out of the race but you gotta expect this is a blip. They won 100+games 2 years ago. Pitching is what is missing. Should be a move they would do …if the Phils are looking to deal Nola before the 10-5 kicks in.
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A Yelich resurgence comes just in time for the Phillies series. I watched him the past 3 games versus the Red Sox on NESN and he made Boston pay at every turn. The only thing that was holding this guy back the last few seasons is injuries. I hope that Luzardo and Suarez can do what Banks couldn’t. There is a reason he is a former MVP. Who was the other outfielder when Yelich was out there with Stanton in Miami? That was a formidable trio.
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Yikes, Marcell Ozuna.
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And also on one of those teams for at least one year with Yelich, Stanton and Ozuna…..was HoF Ichiro and also Jeff Frenchy Francouer as 4th and 5th OFers.
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I think it was Ozuna, could be off on that one. That marlins team should’ve won. Had a young Realmuto as well.
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https://x.com/Cory_Nidoh/status/1928597937539502552?t=-5BGmiC9enhW045ruGNXlw&s=19
https://x.com/Mitch_Rupert/status/1928626265843437835?t=Y6fOGNyPOWBuEw8HnmZxSg&s=19
https://x.com/Mitch_Rupert/status/1928603707953815895?t=vRVLHQGpbsTTgsWdY9oA_Q&s=19
https://x.com/Mitch_Rupert/status/1928591500675355072?t=0hHN9oZwI9Ovy6PDTaRL3Q&s=19
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Anyone else share my sense that Rob Thomson will hang it up after this season, win or lose? With the media he gives off the sense that he has heard every question and delivered every answer.
I know he’s under contract through 202ario6 but these 1 year extensions seem designed to show that ownership doesn’t want him to appear a lame duck. It’s likely that he feels he’s had more time at the he
Wlm of a big league team than he could have imagined pre-2022. There are lakes to fish in the summer in Ontario and I think Topper would love a title but has surpassed his own realistic expectations. I don’t see anything bringing him back after this year.
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Word Press is one pissass platform making editing nigh on impossible. But I wasn’t content to see the above post deleted in the interest of proper editing.
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👍😉
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Flea, I can see that, I don’t think that Thomson is actually driven to have a WS title, but I also don’t believe he is giving any less effort in that regard.
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thanks, Steve – appreciate these !
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Since the OHoppe lament has started yet again, please realize that he Ks A A LOT (34.8%), walks little (4.3%, just what we need, right?), and has so far graded out as at best a mediocre catcher defensively (to put it charitably). Sure he hits dingers. But you need more out of your catcher that that, especially with so much money invested in pitchers.
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I’m sure there are people on this site who are gonna roll their eyes at this statement but Brandon Marsh is not an everyday player. Not even close. And neither is Rojas. I wish they were and root for them but no. We had our window and a chance at a championship but that has passed. There is no way DD will get out in front of this. Everyone with value should be moved and hopefully we can turn this around quickly.
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Get the married men off the field ….. this would be a Shellacking!
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Good Kepler threw that guy out at the plate or this would really have gotten out of control and looked bad.😒
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Well a lesson learned day today……
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Didn’t get a chance to watch today. Was Luzardo just off? Is anyone concerned? 12 ER is…. a lot of fricken runs.
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Luzardo was off, but the Brew Crew was “on”!
Rhys celebrated his return to CBP with 2 long HRs. The ERs were on Thomson who was ejected in the 4th inning for protesting a balk. Don’t know why he didn’t hook Luzardo earlier. Ruiz gave up 5 in an innings work. Wilson had 2 clean innings in relief… say what …. yep, Mr. WILSON!
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Crawford 3-4, 2 SBs (19) .332
Kemp 3-7 in double header, DBL (18), HR (13) .322
A.Miller, k. Anthony both 2-4 in loss
Anthony. .329 with his 19th dbl
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May be my hometown bias but I really see Bobby Whitt Jr in his swing and defense. Not as fast as Bobby. But otherwise feels very similar to me.
https://x.com/Mitch_Rupert/status/1928950008440664519
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Anything close to Witt would be a fantastic outcome. And no one is as fast as Witt — per Statcast he is the fastest player in the majors this year. FWIW, Turner is 4th fastest and Rojas is 5th fastest
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v1 – looking at his stocky legs I believe he is going to hit for more power as he matures and gets more legs/lower half into his swing. I see him as more of a Scott Rolen type of player.
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Yes…. he does have the Rolen swing and approach at the plate….and a shorter height but still a sturdy build. Come Sep he probably get a taste of AAA pitching before the off-season break…also assume he is headed for the AFL this time around.
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Gelb: Ruiz DFA, Seth Johnson called up
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I predict that in this stint with the Phillies, Johnson will lower his career ERA.
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It was the right move to make, but man, Seth Johnson is wild.
Also, this should be a reminder to pitchers that if the Phillies ask you to go to the bullpen, you should just switch. Looks like Johnson is getting rewarded for that choice.
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Saturday’s loss was ugly indeed but it could’ve been worse. They could have lost 17-1. Luzardo’s outing reminded me of his third start in spring training. After his first two good starts the Blue Jays lit him up pretty good during his 2 (?) inning stint. Kind of wish Thomson pulled him after two innings yesterday.
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Naaaa… it helps lower his eventual extension.
DD “Well.. is shows here that your ERA was 4.00+, what youre asking for is more inline with a 3.00-3.50 ERA”
Boras” Well if you take out that one start from the Brewers, he is at 3.00 ERA”
DD” Well, i need someone to pitch those innings, are you saying your client needs to pitch less innings or needs to give up more runs… because we’d need to factor that into the contract :)”
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Matt Gelb also states that Abel will be starting on Thursday with Walker moving into the bullpen as a 1 inning reliever. I’m guessing Lazar headed back down? Or Carlos Hernandez getting DFAd?
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There’s speculation that Nola won’t be back into mid June at the earliest. This means Abel will get 3 starts? Let’s hope that the Phillies feel that he’s part of the solution and not a trade chip. Even if Abel is a 2/3 pitcher, those guys don’t grow on trees either.
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Just what the Phillies don’t need when they are trying to avoid getting swept and losing 4 games in a row: Jose Quintana. He almost always seems to stiffle them.
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MLB top prospect performers:
Justin Crawford, OF, Lehigh Valley (PHI No. 3/MLB No. 56)
Triple-A Lehigh Valley’s leadoff hitter played the part to perfection during the second game of the IronPigs’ doubleheader. Crawford singled three times, swiped a pair of bases, collected an RBI and scored once. Crawford has hit safely in 14 of his past 15 games and finished May slashing .378/.440/.489 over 90 at-bats. The son of former big leaguer Carl Crawford is second in the International League in hits (65) and fifth in average (.332).
https://www.mlb.com/news/top-prospect-performers-for-may-31-2025?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share
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Don’t they even realize….with all the ground balls he hits….he is a worm killer, the worm terminator.
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Crawford looks ready, I think he will make his debut this summer. Ideally, the Phillies gives him CF full time and let him leadoff.
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Note that Marsh has 2 options available so if Crawford comes up, he’s likely the one going down.
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Since the ground balls seem to be the issue the naysayers have on him being an MLBer.. my question is, is he spreading the ground balls out? Reason being, will an MLB team but the shift on him causing him issues?Lastly, does the MILB incorporate the shift the same way the MLB does? If those questions check out… he has to be pretty darn close. With the OFers this team has.
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I mentioned this before but focusing on Crawford’s ground balls is a lazy analysis by the naysayers (not you).
BABIP by Batted Ball Type
• Line Drives (LD): .685
• Ground Balls (GB): .239
• Fly Balls (FB): .207
If Crawford had 20% line drives 20% K and 60% ground balls his batting average would be .280. That’s assuming he has league average BABIP on ground balls. With his ability to take walks, steal bases and his 70 grade defense in CF that’s an all-star.
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I agree that there’s no point assuming he’ll fail just because he puts the ball on the ground a lot. But I disagree that your hypothetical would lead to him being an all star.
The closest comp this year to that hypothetical distribution is Luis Rengifo. He’s at 20.8% LD, 55.7% GB, and 15.8% K. His line so far is .213/.249/.270. He’s been unlucky with BABIP, but even his expected .272/.308/.376 line is very much below league average.
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You didn’t read my full post.
1. Crawford is an elite base stealer. Rengifo has 1 stolen base this year.
2. Crawford is a 70 grade defender at a premium position. Rengifo has negative DRS.
3. Rengifo has a .248 BABIP. Last year with nearly the same line drive and ground ball rates, he had a .339 BABIP and a line of .300/.347/.417 for a wRC+ of 117. It is kinda cherry picking to use his half of 2025 and ignore his 2024.
Rengifo is a terrible comp for Crawford. Completely different players with different skills. Totally unrelated. The best comp to Crawford at the MLB level is Chandler Simpson. Who has a .285/.315/.317 line with 19 stolen bases. That said Simpson has -5 DRS which is pretty bad. Reports that I have read is that Crawford is a 70 defender.
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That’s why I only compared them offensively and included his expected (BABIP-equalized) stats. His expected stats last year were even worse than this year’s. So it feels safe to say that, as a hitting profile, that distribution turns into a below average hitter.
There’s plenty of use for a glove-first, fast CF. But an All-Star they are not (excepting for outlier years with the bat, of course).
I’m not even saying I think that’s who Crawford is. Just that putting the ball on the ground 60% of the time isn’t likely to result in an All-Star player. He would have to be a major outlier to do so.
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3-5 today, with BB and 20th SB, 4 rbi
now hitting. .338
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So as of his 2 PA against Quintana, Weston Wilson officially has as many PAs against lefties this year as Marsh does. And he’s hitting them worse than Marsh (and Kepler, for that matter) has.
Has he done enough in his career that we keep trying this experiment? Or is it time to find a new platoon partner?
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NIMO …… I see little difference in the results of any of our leftie righty matchups. Until I see new faces, I don’t expect any changes in results. Marsh, Kepler, Rojas, Wilson are all on the bubble.
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Amazing…….when Judge is out of the Yankee line-up they search for run production….with Harper out of the Phillies line-up is virtually the same effect.
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A veteran team — no need to panic,
Or
A complacent team in need of a jumpstart.
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A flawed team (not enough hitting!) now playing good teams and not the very worst teams in baseball, perhaps baseball history.
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Gotta love the ebbs and flows of the MLB season …
Jubilation followed by 3 swift kicks to the “balls”… to bring you back to reality.
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on May 7th I made a prediction that Bohm would have a higher OPS than Stott by the end of the month. As of May 31st, Bohm Ops is .692 and Stott is .690. Neither of those numbers are good but one is going up and the other is going down.
everyone wants to replace Bohm but Storr is a golden boy.
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I guess it is because people think Stott is a more complete ballplayer….in the field defensively and just not at the plate.
Bohm’s in his sixth year and he has a cumulative 3.7WAR, though a career OPS+ of 103
Stott’s in his fourth year and he has an 8.5WAR….however career OPS+ 93
I think the defensive aspect of each of their game is one of the reason for the different outlook
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My thoughts on the two players are simple. I don’t think Bohm extends because I think he would rather play somewhere else. And if that’s the case and I get something for him now better than what I think I can get from just letting him walk I do it.
Stott doesn’t overly excite me for a long term deal but he is BH’s boy so he’s more likely to sign a team friendly deal. I don’t think either player is commanding a $100MM plus extension.
And add for both of those players you have in your system some minor leaguers of interest: Escobar, Kemp and possibly Miller.
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Personally, I think he wants to stay in Philadelphia but he wants to get paid (Boras is is his agent). And the Phillies don’t feel he’s worth what he’s asking.
I think the Phillies are waiting for 2023 Stott to come back. His agent is also Scott Boras so Stott signing a team friendly extension is likely out of the question. But Stott needs to start producing at the plate.
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1 is an elite defender and works counts to get SP out of games and the other (although improved) is slightly below average in the field and plays a position that is supposed to have more power.
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Phillies need to shake up this lineup now!
Trade Ranger, Bohm, and Marsh to the Yankees for Devin Williams, Ben Hess, and Bryce Cunningham.
Then call up Kemp, Crawford, and Painter.
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Hard to evaluate this proposal in isolation; which means one could mount arguments pro and con.
Phils wouldn’t elevate Crawford or Kemp to sit either. The way they handle rookies,they’d bat 8th and 9rh in the order. So, can you see the Phils stick 2 rookies back-to-back in the order while seeking to contend for a title? If you can’t see that, it answers the trade issue for the Phils. For the Yankees, it bolsters areas of need in their rotation and 3B. Phils would still have to address needs in LF. A back of the order of Kepler-Realmuto-Kemp-Crawford with Stott slotted back against southpaw starters is something you can’t take to the bank.
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I haven’t posted about Crawford enough so I thought that I would share this nugget
https://x.com/PHI_HR_Tracker/status/1929308832687116314
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is Crawford playing CF? I thought the video I saw of him in the field was him playing LF.
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I think they move him around to keep him flexible. But he is clearly a CF imo.
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According to Fangraphs, Crawford has 277 innings in center and 112 innings in left this season.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/justin-crawford/sa3020240/stats?position=OF
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Thanks. I didn’t realize Fangraphs had that data.
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*for milb
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I certainly ripped the Orioles for letting 30 year old Corbin Burnes sign for 6/210 with the DBacks. Now Burnes just left his start with right elbow discomfort. It doesn’t sound good.
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as you should’ve. I was really surprise he wasn’t resigned by the Os, pretty annoyed because a slam dunk move for them but it ended up strengthening the DBacks…. Ranger to the DBacks?
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If Ranger gets traded, it’s likely to an AL team. But first, a lot will depend on how Abel looks when he comes back up. If he shows that he can be successful at the ML level, it would make trading Ranger a lot easier.
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I honestly think in watching interviews with Burnes he wanted to be out west. Orioles may or may not have made a similar offer but what is often unbeknownst to the common fan is a players desire to be in a certain part of the country.
Sure its mostly about the money but not in 100% of cases. And its not like $200 mil is something to toss under the seat cushions.
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When it’s a player’s first FA contract, it’s pretty much all about the money (very close to 100%). And considering how cheap the Orioles are, I find it hard to believe that they wanted to give Burnes $200M. Note that the Orioles only have $17.5M in guaranteed money to be paid for 2026 which is insane. So he went elsewhere and got paid.
As a comparison, the Phillies have $163M in guaranteed money to be paid for 2026.
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I believe Burnes lives in Arizona – it was like going home for him.
I think O’s did offer him alot of $$ – but I think your destination idea is correct.
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The Orioles offered 4/180. So the DBacks offered more money and he can stay at home which was a no brainer.
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no way are they trading Ranger. Nola is shut down and hasn’t won a game this season. Walker is now a bullpen piece and Abel in his only MLB start shutout the lowly Pirates. Sanchez is showing signs of fatigue. Painter hasn’t faced a major league hitter in a real game. Luzardo and Wheeler are coming off very rough starts. As of June 1st, Suarez is the surest hand in the rotation and even if all the other starters are perfect from now on and Ranger is no longer one of their top five starters (which won’t happen but if it does), Alvarado is out of the playoffs and Suarez becomes the bullpen arm they don’t have to trade for to take his place. And this is Ranger’s contract year so he’s extra motivated to pitch his ass off and earn a big deal in the off-season. And who do you trade him to? Only a contender would trade for him as he’s a rental and then you’re taking a huge risk that you’ll face him in the playoffs with him feeling ready to show the team who traded him how stupid they were. Feel free to continue devising mock trades but Ranger is not getting traded so long as the 2025 Phillies are still in playoff contention.
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Agreed. If everything goes perfectly with Abel and with Nola’s return, Ranger down the stretch and in the playoffs can be that lefty out of the bullpen that the team needs.
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Well it might be the reason you do trade him. If they could have extended Ranger they would have done so by now. I don’t really care what either side is trying to feed the media.
And again if you get more for him trading him than just the QO pick the smart play is to do it and reload for the next 4-5 years runs.
Is it possible Ranger is the reason you get all the way to a WS this season and possibly win it? With this line-up?
I don’t believe so personally…
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That’s two of us …… DMAR.
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I can’t foresee the future better than anyone else.I’m impressed with how much there is to learn about all 8 starting pitching candidates (well, not Wheeler) between now and July 31. To say categorically that the Phils will or won’t trade Suarez is saying you know the answers that no one else does . I would be shocked if the Phils did not have a scenario for trading Ranger, along with other scenarios.
I’m confident the Phils have tried to extend Ranger long before now. I believe the Phils ha.e an idea of how willingly Ranger would move to the pen in his walk year. If the Phils keep him, they’ll use their pieces to maximize chances for team success. But it’s very hard to picture Ranger in any long term role in Philly.
If they moved him, it would be to a contender, presumably in the AL. The package coming back I believe would include a key piece in a position of need, someone with team control beyond this year. The only other likely way that happens is by the Phils unloading top prospects, devalued by some other contending team in win=now mode.
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I think as a start, the Phillies need to promote Crawford to see if he can be a spark at the top of lineup. Stott at the top is not doing enough.
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Barring injury, promoting Crawford requires a corresponding move, likely that of a left- handed bat. What if Marsh is part of a package you want to move in July? Do you demote him now and reduce his value? But if Marsh is an insurance policy in case Crawford proves not ready, the only way you know that is by giving Crawford a reasonable audition.
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Normally you wouldn’t want to devalue Marsh as you say… but he already do that with his 0 for April. He got sent down. Thats going to come up in the talks where you bring Crawford up now or not. How much more woudl it devalue Marsh is the question… I would say not much more. I cant see many teams seeing him more than a 4th OFer. he is more valuable to the Phillies than anyone else at this point.
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*did and whether… arrrrgh
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Which is why that trade proposal nailed it.
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Trading Ranger is a must. That trade proposal is spot on.
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Disagree! That trade proposal is excellent.
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Not that prospect rankings mean a whole lot, but McDaniel in his updated Phillies top ten moved Escobar down 4 spots. Tait and Abel jumped him. And . . . Hendry Mendez. Also into the rankings at ten is Robert Moore, the 23 yrd old hitting .218 w 5 hrs in Reading. . . I mean, not a great start for Phillies prospects so far but the raitonale of moving those two guys up and not, well, Otto Kemp is crazy to me.
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When it comes to prospect rankings, age matters. Kemp is already 25 (turning 26 in September) at Lehigh. Hendry Mendez is 21 at Reading.
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Just a ridiculous ranking
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Mendez is an interesting prospect whom never gets talked about. He is 21 in AA with a 11.4% walk rate and a 13.5% K rate. Both are great. His biggest issue is no power. But still has time to fill out the 6’3″ frame.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/hendry-mendez/sa3015727/stats?position=OF
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Matt Winkleman recently expressed skepticism about Mendez
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Like what?
His power is suspect right now…SLG and ISO, but he still has time to develop that…his contact rate appears to be plus—peripherals are very good. But more importantly….against AA pitching he has dropped his GB% 10 points from the previous two years….from approx 60% down to 50%. His defense will never be ‘Rojas’ type, but a very adequate LFer is a good possibility.
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Like Crawford without the speed and defense, but a better eye at the plate.
He probably has a lot of work to do to become an impactful hitter, which he kind of needs to be if he’s LF only. But there are some skills there that are interesting and he’s fairly young, so maybe there’s a chance.
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Not sure which OFer has more upside at this point…the 21-year old Hendry Mendez (.740 OPS) or the 24-year old Gab Rincones (.774 OPS). Both are corner guys and most likely one may eventually be moved in a package deal.
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While some of this seems absurd, also highlights how top heavy our system currently is. Very good top (Painter, Miller, Crawford, Escobar, Tait . . maybe Abel), then it’s pretty rough. You have some upside youngsters (Burkholder, Nori, Ferribus) some hurt guys (Chace, Spikerman, Pen, Ottenbreit), and some slow starters/hurt (Saltiban, Rincon) but woof, pretty rought apart from that.
VERY EARLY, but the 2024 class looking a bit rough. Burkholder just getting healthy and I like Nori but a little rough after that
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19-year old OFer Victor Cardoza could be the next hot Latin prospect in the system. He is adjusting right now to the stateside move and low A ball. Hopefully the light goes on for him soon.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cardoz000vic
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Moore at 10 is absurd, dropping Escobar 4 spots considering his stats and reports of his ABs is mind-boggling.
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McDaniel has George Klassen as the Angels #1 prospect.
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Still early….come after July a few more former Phillies prospects could be in the Angels’ top ten.
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while running an ERA at almost 7. but I guess someone HAS to be their #1 prospect
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The real shame of it all, for him personally, is that the phillies system is real good with guys of his pedigree (nasty stuff, but poor control) and i think being traded away from the system hurt his potential.
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I don’t know how to evaluate this other than just simply looking at guys in their system, but the Angels may have the worst pitcher development track record in baseball. If I was drafted by them and had an option, I’d go back to school.
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Cardoza really would have to adjust quite a bit. He has 22 Ks in 56 PAs. I guess we can always be hopeful.
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DSL Phillies Red lost their opener 28-5 to the Marlins. FCL Phillies have been outscored 153-87 and are 5-16 on the year. The state of the rookie ball teams, generally filled with recent LA signings, is abysmal. Something needs to change there.
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You need to look at the rosters, are our DSL/FCL which are filled with teenagers, losing to teams with players in their early 20s? Wins and losses do not matter at those levels. In the past we have had plenty of over-aged players in the DSL, whats the point? Play the kids and see if 1 or 2 pop.
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Exactly, scores don’t matter at all. Aroon Escobar had .643 OPS as an 18 year old for DSL White 2 years ago. We know what he is now as a 20 year old.
They all can’t be Eduardo Tait (who had .917 OPS as a 16 year old).
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I think we are past small sample sizes. I think we’re past overly emotional reactions. The reality is nobody has taken over LF or CF to the point that they deserve an everyday role. Not Kepler. Not Marsh. Not Rojas. And certainly not Wilson.
So I say now is the time to call up Crawford, bat him 9th for now, and play him every day in CF until late July. Maybe give him a day off against a tough LHP like Sale but play him against just about everybody.
We need an impact bat. We need controllable players with low salaries moving forward. So rather than trading a controllable young player for that impact bat, let’s find out right now if maybe that impact bat, spark plug guy is playing in Allentown right now.
Let Rojas, Wilson, Marsh, and Kepler earn playing time in LF. Maybe somebody gets hot and they earn the bulk of the playing time. In the meantime, I’m going to dream that the first Phil to come to bat in the bottom of the first at CBP in Game 1 of the NLDS vs San Diego is Mr Crawford.
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My question is if the Phillies are going to have him re-tool his swing. If he’s going to redo his swing, they might as well have him make the adjustment now. If it’s an offseason thing, there isn’t really any harm in calling him up now. Worse comes to worse, he struggles and is convinced he needs to change his swing. With his current swing, I’m not sure what he has left to prove at AAA. If he was changing it, then sure, keep him down there and let him work on it.
Keith Law’s writeup on him the other day was that he absolutely needs to change his swing but if he does, he’s a star (might have said superstar) because he things he has decent power potential.
He seems like he’s hitting lefties alright and even if he struggles – Wilson and Rojas aren’t exactly lighting it up vs lefties. I like Weston Wilson and have been dying for him to get an opportunitiy. But now he has it and well, not much to show for it.
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Right, we need to change his swing …… seems to me another guy who changed his swing ….. Scott Kingery, destined for fame and fortune, only the fortune materialized.
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If I remember correctly, Kingery changed it to get more loft but it was a line drive swing before. So he went from line drive swing to more of a power swing.
The criticism of Crawford is that it’s a severe ground ball swing. I think they’d be thrilled with a line drive swing.
Also seems like the intanglibles around the swing with Crawford are better – pitch recognition, less swing and miss, than Kingery had. Law kind of implied that you change it if you want him to be a star. He could still probably be an average OFer with his current swing but I’d hope they’d be shooting a little higher than that . . .
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In Kingery’s defense, got a bad case of Covid and sap much of his energy for a long while.
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Honestly, I think Crawford is a bit of a unique talent and that, if they try to change his swing, they are playing with fire.
Crawford, I believe, has exceptional bat-to-ball skills – perhaps near elite skills. He’s fast and said to be a great fielder. Very importantly, his plate discipline this year has been much better. I don’t think it’s easy for a player to change his swing and it could lead to a long and unproductive detour. I’d rather he become the next Kenny Lofton than a failed Christian Yellich. Just saying.
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I get that. Just reading the things about his makeup, he might have the ability to make adjustments well. I’m not against letting him try it and see if it works.
For the sake of argument, Kenny Lofton is a good outcome. Or, he’s Ben Revere . . .
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I can pretty much guarantee he’s not Ben Revere – he may not be Kenny Lofton, but he’s not Ben Revere.
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I don’t think he is either but that would be worst case. Maybe a more realistic floor is Doug Glanville with more OBP?
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this is kind of a funny request… in the sense that Crawford is batting above .330 in AAA… how does he advance through the levels of the minor leagues with it becoming a problem at AAA? Does the development team disagree with KLaw, or did they just believe that Crawford was never going to make it or get traded so it wasnt their problem to fix? Crawford has said he’s not reworking his swing… so there is that to contend with IF he really has to alter the swing.
A fair test would be to shuttle him to Philly for a few days.. let him hit off Wheeler, heck throw steroid arm out there… see if the supposed increased range of a MLB infielder craps his avg down to .225 – .250. Of course, move Stott to SS and put Sosa out there. See if he really needs to alter the swing
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That’s why I’m ok with throwing him in Philly for a little and seeing how he does.
I think Gelb had it in an article that the Phillies are kind of waiting for him to struggle and then have him impliment changes but he just hasn’t struggled. Could be no swing changes are neccesary. Above my paygrade
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Mets are hot again. Beat the Dodgers last night. Blackburn is back and Montas and Manaea will soon return. And Soto hasn’t done anything yet. YET.
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And another thing: The Phillies run into another hot team this week. I don’t know the Blue Jays starters for the 3 game series but Berrios pitches our boys tough and Bassitt seems to always baffle them. If Gausman is on, he is one of the better pitchers in baseball.
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The Rays Pete Fairbanks, mentioned as a target for Phillies. Looks the part. 3rd yr arb, making 4mil-ish. Rays are in the WC hunt though. So they’d have to drop back. If they do, what is a likely package for him…
The cards I’m willing to trade:
Roster: Alvarado, Walker, Ranger, Wilson, Kepler, Marsh, Bohm, Rojas, Nola (if Ranger is retained)
Prospects: Nori, Buckholder, Rincones Jr, Chace, McFarland, Cabera, McGowen, Ricketts
Is any of this enough to get it done?
Alavardo+Rincones Jr? If not Alvarado, then Ranger, Rincones, and Ricketts?
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Hard to imaging the Rays wanting to pick up Alvarado’s option next year at that price. Ranger, maybe, if they were able to negotiate an extension. If not, he’s a rental so why would they? So functionally Ricketts and Rincones and I think they’d say no. Swap Ricketts for Feribellus and maybe?
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revisit the Alvarado side, same deal, with same 4 mil added. They come back with a top bullpen piece to replace a Fairbanks who likely will get more than the 4mil, and they get an OF…. Does that get it done?
The Rays have no pithing prospects in the top 100. They might bite on Alvarado, +cash, and either Chace or Cabrera.
Helps them cost control a upper level BParm, with a rising prospect arm
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I’ve been saying Faibanks for some time. I also think it would cost more has he should be in demand. Plus there’s an affordable team option on him for 2026.
Fairbanks + Jansen
for
Marchan + Keaton Anthony + ?
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Paint me as one shocked buckaroo if Nola or Alvarado get moved. Jim has pointed out that Nola earns 10/5 rights in a matter of weeks. The Phils aren’t putting him in a fire sale to meet that timing.
Nobody wants Alvarado and his contract until he comes back clean and performs. That’s weeks after the trade deadline. Except maybe the Phillies, Alvarado doesn’t meet the need of any team — big market, small market, contender or non-contender. They’ll let the gamble that is Alvarado remain where he is.
Suarez only meets the needs of a team in active, current contention. Nobody acquiring him can bank on him past this year. He’s not giving up free agency.
I’d love to see Crawford get a call-up but I can see the Phils being conservative and giving him another month at Lehigh Valley. By early July, more evidence is in and I can see the Phils start to shop by the All Star break.
I wonder if anyone envisions Marsh, Kepler and Wilson in a Phils uni next year. Kepler is too well paid for what he produces and Marsh and Wilson aren’t getting it done. Rojas,to me, at a minimum has value as a defensive outfielder. If he can hit .250 (on a .260 hitting team), he’s worth what he’ll get paid.
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Kepler won’t be re-signed because Crawford is going to push Marsh to LF.
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I don’t see Kepler or Marsh with us in LF next year. Neither one seem to offensively add any value.
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Fairbanks is the guy I’m really interested in, mostly because of team control to go with quality. But I think any deal for Fairbanks starts with Mick Abel.
Of the minor league pieces you mentioned you’re willing to trade, none are particularly playing well, or have enhanced their value this year. Value costs value. Getting someone as good as Fairbanks is going to cost someone you don’t want to part with.
If you go after a one-year rental (Helsley, Jansen, etc.) I think you have a better chance at getting away with offering up the likes of a Rincones or Cabrera. But it may also cost someone like Alirio Ferrebus, too.
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Exactly, you have to give talent to get talent. Fairbanks is good AND controlled for another year. The trade needs to hurt for the Phillies if they want somebody good. That’s how deals are made.
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I like Mick Abel but if your confident in Fairbanks, I’m not sure you don’t do it. He doesn’t hae a place in the rotation next year, most likely, and having a contributor this year is better than not having a contributor
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If you think Mick Abel can be a good solid ML pitcher (not an ace… just a good #3), I don’t trade him for a relief pitcher. I think Ranger will be gone after this season via free agency and that, potentially, leaves a spot open for Abel. I know people will say that spot is for Painter but until he comes up and gets people out, I don’t lock him in anywhere. Besides, people get hurt and we never have too much starting pitching.
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It’s one thing to have a veteran depth pitcher (looking to get back to the bigs) or a rising prospect that hasn’t proved himself yet at Lehigh. It’s another thing to have Painter or Abel waste his bullets at AAA in 2026 when they are clearly ready.
If you don’t feel that Abel is part of the solution, you trade him. If you want Abel as a foundation piece, then you do the hard move, like trade Luzardo in the offseason.
And forget about trading Nola. The Phillies wanted to give him 7 years, now they are stuck with him.
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I understand the concern with Painter but I’m not sure the Phillies share your concern and we’ve only witnessed Abel do it once. SP depth will likely be a little thin next year but if they think that they are potentially 1 reliever away (this year and next) I think you have to do it. I wouldn’t do it for a rental but for the right reliever, I’d think about it.
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Tough call on the pen. I get you gotta give to get, but i don’t want to give. I feel like this team needs more than their record shows. Part of that is Alvarado’s roid issues. Do you trade for Fairbanks to pair them together mainly for next year?… Im not likely the idea of trading Abel at all… but he is theoretically expendable “if” Luzardo is extended. Abel Looks like he really turned the corner, and I’d want more than Fairbanks for him. I guess I’d tip toe at the deadline. I’d probably go target some retreads for the team. I’d assume Sir A would be available… hopefully cheaply for one of our prospects outside the top tier…
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The kind of stuff Steve Potter reports on…….The American Association named their Players of the Month. Hitter, Kyle Martin..Pitcher Konnor Ash, both Phormer Phillie Pharm Hands
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Not sure how ‘in’ non-Phils fans, baseball people, are on Abel. Everyone would know his history. Is he a gem or fool’s gold? I’d think other teams might be dubious if he was put on the market this time around.
For myself, I think he’s legit. Would love to see the Phils build off a young core of Luzardo, Sanchez, Painter and Abel and don’t think they’ll regret it. Phils lose Suarez after this season, Walker (and perhaps Luzardo) after 2026, Wheeler after 2027. There should be room.
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With Zack Wheeler on the paternity list, Mick Abel will be pitching tomorrow instead. Wheeler will be pitching Friday vs the Pirates.
Classy move by the Blue Jays with a video tribute of Jordan Romano.
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McCollum? Legit? Might be in AAA soon with the way he’s going.
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Here’s an all in trade idea:
Crawford + Abel + Taijuan Walker + Marsh to Arizona for Perdomo + Shelby Miller
For Arizona this frees up SS for Lawler and gets them an elite SP and CF prospect.
For Phillies this allows them to move Trea to CF and gets us a 25yo SS on a 5 WAR trajectory this season who is under control until 2030.
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im not crazy about trading Abel, but here is what I like about this proposal:
it gives more worth to Abel than a rental
walker getting traded to free up FA money sooner
Get a reliver back
Trading Crawford obviously stings too, but im assuming your eventual move is to let Bohm walk as well? Stott, Perdomo,Miller, & Bohm is a crowd with Harper at 1B.
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there are worse ideas but not many.
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Very valuable comment Sara. Productive contribution to the conversation. This isn’t Twitter. In this community we use data to challenge views. If you have an intelligent response, please let me know why you don’t like this trade offer. If all you have a negative pithy responses, then take it elsewhere.
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Rotation next year:
Wheeler, Painter, Abel, Nola and Luzardo if you sign him to an extension or Sanchez if you can’t.
Suarez needs to be traded the Yankees or Red Sox now.
Get Painter, Kemp, and Crawford up now.
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https://x.com/Mitch_Rupert/status/1930073050495459502?t=_nPlZGZD9Pi-sUDfppSEsA&s=19
BTW dombrowski was in the stands to see Kemp go yard
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I don’t know the ultimate solution, but we need that bat in the middle of the Phillies lineup right now. Big questions. Where’s he going to play and can he sustain near that production against MLB pitching.
My concern is Dombrowski unloads Kemp and Crawford for a couple of over the hill vets.
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Sanchez was already extended
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read
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Trading Suarez does not make sense on several fronts –
What we want is a RH Power Bat, so –
Ranger is that kinda of player that gets you over the top.
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Sox and Yankees agree which is why they would give up a lot.
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I need to find out sooner rather than later if
Crawford > Marsh
Kemp > Wilson
In the same vain as
Abel > Walker
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I’m not sure I disagree with any of those assertions.
I think it’s now a mistake not to view Kemp as a legitimate, although limited (in terms of positional flexibility and athleticism) power hitting prospect. I keep hearing he can’t hit breaking pitches, then I see replays of him taking a breaking pitch deep for a home run. And while his power was down a little in May, he hit for exactly the same average and had the exact same number of walks in April and May, suggesting his offense is very much real. And when he hits the ball, he shows great exit velocity. I saw him play in person about 10 days ago, and he didn’t have his best game, but he looked really good out there. If I’m the Phillies, I don’t let this guy get away and I figure out a way to use him and get him ABs and let the problem solve itself over time. Having a guy push for playing time is a good thing.
As for Crawford, the hit tool is so exceptional, the plate discipline is now solid and the speed and athleticism is so great, that I think you need to promote him with the plan of playing him full time or near full time. I think he’s simply a better player right now than the guys who are playing CF – he should be playing on the big league team now or very soon.
My guess is the Phillies are very close to making a move with Crawford and perhaps also Kemp.
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Haven’t run the stats but I wonder if Max Muncy is a valid comp for Kemp. A bit of a late bloomer who defies expectations. If Kemp’s ceiling is Muncy, I wouldn’t mind seeing how close to that Kemp can get.
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Max Muncy was a 5th round pick who made it to the bigs at 24. He struggled for 2 years with the A’s before he got DFAd.
He needed a change of scenery and he spent the entire season at AAA at age 26 for the Dodgers. He broke out at age 27.
Stories like this are rare. If you’re lucky, you might get one of these once in a decade.
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The narrative is that Kemp is really old. But, really, he isn’t, especially considering his career was delayed by injuries in college. He’s killing it as 25 year-old at AAA. When Muncy was 25, he hit 8 homers and .251 in the hitting-heavy PCL. Kemp is not a young prospect but he’s just about a year older than Hoskins was when he made his debut. He needs to get in and get some ABs to see if he is for real. If he is, they need to try to get him in the line-up at least sometimes because we are starved for a real RH power hitter.
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well if that’s the case… the Phillies are due about 4 of those… once in a decade late blooming prospect!
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The Blue Jays shuttle players back and forth routinely to their AAA affiliate in Buffalo. Some are guys on rehab and all have options and are subject to team control.
The Phils seem to treat call-ups as maneuvers not easily undone. I’m coming around to Toronto’s way of doing business. It’s not the end of the world if a call-up like Crawford proves not to be quite ready. He’s 21. We know well the competition he faces on the current roster. It’s not insurmountable.
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The Dodgers apply this same logic. Have for years. Especially with their bullpen and waiver pickups. Keep throwing things at the wall along the edges and see what happens.
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First, the Blue Jays generally don’t spend too much so they have unproven talent at certain spots like 3B and LF. Clement can’t really hit too much but he’s a plus defender. I believe they started Roden at LF who stunk early, and now they are mixing and matching in LF.
Then there are the injuries to Varsho, Gimenez, Santander.
So yes, the Blue Jays have played a lot of players.
For the hitters, the only player for the Phillies who got hurt was Marsh, and he was stinking it up early anyways. The Phillies have been remarkably healthy. Now if you want to complain about players who are not performing, that’s another conversation.
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It’s not another — it IS the conversation. Putting the best players on the field, free of sentimentality or fear of ruffling feelings. It’s not a membership social club, it’s a competitive sports team.
If they’re extending a particularly long leash to a non-performer, you have to ask why. TaijuanWalker has more lives than a cat. Brandon Marsh might as well be a cat, he has no leash. A line-up with Kepler, Realmuto and Marsh at the bottom is a ship with 3 anchors. Marsh, with 2 options is staring them in the face.
Look, teams fall short for various reasons and, each year, 29 teams do. If the Phils fall short this year through a sense that they couldn’t identify their best players and get them in play, then DD might find Nashville a relatively comfortable place to call home.
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I agree. In the early days of the Dombrowski-led rebuild, they didn’t have as much hesitancy about cutting bait and letting young guys play or moving underperformers to upgrade (cut Gregorious for Stott is the most obvious example). I don’t see why the long allegiance to underperformers on the roster especially when they have options. Bohm has been better, Stott plays good defense, and Marsh has been better since his return from injury, but none should have especially long leashes if you ask me or if there is an opportunity to platoon when warranted.
I think if Kemp could play left field he’d have taken Weston Wilson’s job by now. But if there are days you’re not playing Stott and Kepler, why not have Kemp play 2B and have Edmundo in LF? I keep saying this is going to be a fascinating year as a Phillies fan, but it could be a little painful depending on who they trade. It was nice to see them make the move of Walker to the bullpen, Abel up, Johnson up, and optioned. Maybe it shows they’ll be willing to take some risks with younger players this year when the core around them is so good still.
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Marsh is staring them in the face? He was out for 2 weeks and they struggled to replace him. And that was when he wasn’t hitting.
Since he’s come back from injury, he’s hitting .290/.371/.419. Optioning him now is just punishing him for playing well.
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Again, this is a problem of big market teams: under performing veterans. Depending on how many years are left, you’re obligated to play them just because of how much money they are owed. So both parties need to play nice because they are both together for the long run. Benching a veteran at the first hint of problems won’t make the veteran happy and it won’t make the agent happy. And the other FA players will notice this. Who wants to sign with a team where at the first hint of trouble, the manager doesn’t have my back? In this respect, the manager is part babysitter because they have to massage all the egos on the team.
Now this only applies to veterans on FA deals. Arbitration and pre-arbitration players, you can do whatever you want. That’s why there was no blowback from sending Stubbs to Lehigh. This also means that if the Phillies want to demote Marsh, there shouldn’t be any issues.
But if Thomson goes to Casty and tells him he’s going to be in a platoon, good luck with that. If you’re going to do that, you might as well start finding a trading partner or DFA him.
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https://x.com/MLBPipeline/status/1930104638788804776?t=ArbNHXWawniZ-4MVAPJbOw&s=19
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Jersey Shore toot sweet.
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He’s our best position prospect. There, I’m saying it and with no disrespect to Aidan Miller.
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If they bring JC up it should only be to play CF everyday…
Same for Kemp but as time has passed since ST it appears they simply don’t have a place to play him defensively. He must be really bad in the OF because LF is screaming for someone with his offensive profile. That sux!
I don’t see a need for both Kepler and Marsh one of them should be moved…
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Move both of them …. if you have to pick one keep the cheapest one, with options.
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I’d like to see this lineup but I’m sure it’ll never happen. And I’m probably a bit of an idiot.
CF Crawford
SS Turner
RF Harper
DH Schwarber
1B Bohm
LF Castellanos/Kepler
C Realmuto
2B Stott
3B Kemp
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It seems certain Suarez is a goner soon or at season’s end. It seems also certain that the Phillies will give him a QO. Any possibility that Suarez would take up the offer (probably $20M) or is going for the big contract now?
Down on the farm Tate plays one game at C and the next game at DH. The day he catches, Kodey Shojinaga plays 1B and when Tate is at DH, Shohinaga catches. Shohinaga is a Hawiian who played college ball at Kansas.
He is batting .296 in Clearwater, has great bat to ball ability, and plays very good defense. However, he has absolutely no power to speak. He just might be a player that the Phillies will use in a trade coming up shortly.
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If you’re Ranger and you’re less than 6 months away from getting paid with Scott Boras as your agent, and you’re going to take the QO? I think you know the answer to that.
I remember when Nola was a year away from FA and people were talking about how he might take an early deal and I laughed. And Nola eventually got his $172M.
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Suarez on a qualifying offer is trade bait in 2026, headed somewhere he might not wish to go. In free agency, he has a say in the matter. Maybe the Mets would give him Sean Mannaea money ($75M for 3 years).
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Last night @ LHV
CRAWFORD 1 — 4 W/BB 2 runs scored .337
KEMP 2 — 5 Hr. 2B leads int’l league in HRs 14 .324
@ Reading Anthony 2 — 4 2b .338 promote him!
Miller 2 — 5 3 rbis .246 and climbing.
@ Clearwater Escobar 2 — 5 2 Hrs (10) 4 Rbis 3 Ks .324 Tait 3 — 4 1 2b 1 BB .285
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Promotion probably coming out the end of the month. Anthony and Escobar are very good possibilities….I can see Miller getting to LHV in Sept, prepping him for next year.
What to do with Kemp? Maybe to the Angels for Kenley J.
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Anthony tonight 2 — 4 w/HR .342
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Does anyone have any thoughts/ insights into Daniel Harper?
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he looked very good in Spring training games…I’m always looking for the surprise good reliever…..he might be that one
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Throws hard, good stuff, scary command. Looked good in the spring, and seemed his control had gotten better, and then he got hurt.
He’s still in the interesting phase of prospect status, as in you should watch him every time he pitches, but I won’t put any expectations on him just yet.
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Thanks!
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This just in from BA –
Painter # 10 ; Miller # 46 ; Tait # 64 : Crawford # 82 ; Escobar # 94
So 5 in their top 100. I don’t understand why Abel doesn’t get listed in – at least the 90’s – given his improved status.
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….and why Crawford keeps hovering around the bottom 1/3rd. Pre-2024 he was at 63……in the spring he fell to 96 with BA……he went up 13 slots this time. He is at 56 now, up from 64 with MLB.com
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It almost feels like they throw darts at a board. Clickbait.
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Painter line tonight 4 ip 6H 4 R 4ER 4 BB 5 K 2 HR 81 — 59
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correction 85 — 59
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ouch
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I just hope he isn’t hurt !!!!
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ironically could it be possible Abel is the real number 1 and not Painter ?????
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I thought Mick looked good tonight. If Marsh could have made a spectacular catch and if we could score runs with the bases loaded and 1 out he might have got a win.
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Skeet…….it is not all Marsh’ fault….corner OFers need to know when to keep their distance. Kepler was charging and just too close to him.
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Opposite problem of that missed catch by Rojas earlier in the year where he refused to take command of the play but Casty knew it should be his.
I wonder if Marsh didn’t call for it or if Kepler didn’t hear him, but it was a solid effort while trying to avoid a collision.
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Could be, but this feels like a Gavin Floyd & Cole Hamels repeat… Just will Abel progressing faster… and we still have him 🙂
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Painter missed 2 full seasons folks, relax.
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Exactly. He’s probably not even going to be at full strength this year and he is trying to get his touch and feel back on all of his pitches. I am really glad they are not rushing him and I’m glad they didn’t rush Abel.
Also, pitchers are weird. Who would have guessed 3 years ago that Casey Mize would be very good but that the superstar in the Detroit rotation would be Tarik Skubal?
Over the long haul, however, I have a lot of confidence in Painter.
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https://x.com/NCloutierTVA/status/1930293466950709557
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sorry, meant to post the link to Mitch Rupert, Keaton Anthony and Saul Teran the Minor League Hitter and Pitcher of the Month,
https://x.com/Mitch_Rupert/status/1930316738647797799
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A look ahead:SR
I like Abel’s potential, especially in a SR that has a lot of guys getting paid. Cheap productive talent is a must. That would make 3. As of now, it’s an embarrassment of riches, but that could change shortly, one or two ways…
I don’t expect Nola to get moved, but in terms of spreading payroll out amongst others positions & the CBA 50% tax, It would be ideal with the young guys coming up. Unlikely soooo.
Ranger is gone. We’d like Walker to be gone, if not, he’s an overpriced long starter. Hopefully he can be a bullpen pieces this year. If you trade Abel this deadline…
2026: Wheeler, Nola, Luzardo, Sanchez, Painter
2027:Wheeler, Nola, Sanchez, Painter
2028: Painter, Sanchez, Nola…
Skubal, Crocket, and possible Wheeler gets extended if he’s still got it yr to yr. So you could add then, but you gotta assume a few things : They will sign here, Luzardo bolts before then, and the Phillies don’t trade or develop anyone (Cabrera/Chace/Johnson,etc)… Just seems easier at this point to trade ranger now,get a needed piece, keep Abel & Painter, while stashing them in the pen. To keep the rotation strength going. You don’t want to jinx anything … but it really seems Abel could do the bullpen. Sure he’s never done it before, but … come on … plenty of things I’ve never done before that are similar in nature and get it done well. Im sure Abel could be a BP arm… as well as Painter as an opener. Worst case, they don’t win the WS and the young guys get playoff experience. How ruined coudl they get? Like… hey…. Do you guys want to pitch in the postseason? Or do you want to be a bunch of scared cats? “No coach, i think its best if I sit this year out… might ruin my confidence going forward” If that what he says, definitely trade’em
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My handful of issues with last night the first being I would have left Abel out there to try and work through that jam. Not sure the exact pitch count that he was at but it had to be pretty low. Great teaching moment but I guess that is how the league is run these days.
You only score 1 run you pretty much deserve to lose allowing Romano to pitch to his old catcher.
Coupled with bases loaded less than 1 out and you can’t push a run across.
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dmar. I know in the 5th T Mac said his pitch count was very good. Not sure where it was but I like your idea of letting one work out of trouble. One has to learn sometime.
Probably not the best Romano pitching to his old catcher. He made a couple good pitches and last was not very good. Ball kind of said hit me on it and he almost hit it out.
I think I have seen more of that bases loaded stuff and less than 2 outs this Spring than I have in a long time. Not just MLB but different levels of baseball and softball. Seems to me that at times no one is willing to put the defense in a position to fail in those scenarios. I have seen numerous no out bases loaded end up with NO runs scored. Sign of the times, I guess.
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I know a lot of you, are too young to remember Matty aloud. Romua will remember him.guys over 80 saw him play. Had 31 home runs in 14 season. Hit 307. Obp was around 340 had 50 percent caught stealing. Crawford is the same type. But better base stealer. Pittsburg great walker taught aloud to hit into ground and use his speed. Alou won a batting title doing that so I wouldn’t knock Crawford over his ground ball rate
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Roccco……yes Matty Alou…choke, stroke and poke approach with a 4″ choke on his thick handle bat….Ichiro something similar……not sure it works nowadays with pitchers throwing 99 mph….and that is just the relievers.
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Hi Rocco. Good to see you here. I am not too young. I remember all 3 of the Alou brothers.
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Romus + oldruff – If you look at Bichette’s triple, I believe you might see that Kepler had a better chance at that ball. It was more toward left field and he seemed to have a better angle on the ball. I believe he just deferred to Marsh because the CF is the captain of the outfield. Check it out again.
Looks like rocco moffo has risen. Or is it that he is out of witness protection?
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Ciada. I missed the play. Flipping back and forth with WCWS. But I agree outfielders are taught to let the CF get any ball he can get. Sometimes it just does not work out the way we wish it had. I think overall Kepler has done a nice job in LF. I am not into his batting stroke at all. Not the swing I remember from his days at Minny. Maybe they can win the series today.
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The idea of trading Abel seems crazy. Sure, everyone has a price, but, let’s see, a 23-year-old RHP first round draft pick out of HS who developed in the minors, has never had an injury, and looks like a mid-rotation starter (maybe a #2 if things go well), under team control until 2032 . . . I mean, trading that for a bullpen rental seems insane to me.
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Agreed….pure insanity.
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I agree on Abel. Last night was my first time to see him pitch. I liked everything I saw. I like his smooth delivery. I like his demeanor.
I know I will get dissed by some here, but I said most of the winter the Phillies did not do enough to address the BP. Plus, I had no idea Alvarado would be suspended. Appears to me the Phillies have got themselves boxed in a corner. I am a no go on letting Abel or Painter or both going in a trade. As someone has said a team never has enough pitching. Phillies BP right now is a testament to that.
Hi Romus. Grandkid finds out in a few days what surgery he will need.
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Good luck to your grandson, Don…….I cannot imagine all the surgeries these days on HS teenagers. Youth sports medicine must be a booming business……I have a L4/L5 stenosis issue….when I go to the ortho doc….I see many teenagers coming in and out of the office on crutches and/or mobile boots…and many girls.
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Thanks Romus. He is at Wilmington College today for orientation. Sees surgeon on the 18th. He made a lot of hard throws when he went to 2nd base. Was tore around 60% initially. So he will find out if still the bridge or full TJ. I personally know two others who had season ending shoulder or UCL surgery. Kid who beat his team in Sectional had TJ surgery 2 years ago. It is like an epidemic with the young kids. Agree on the girls as well. I am no surgeon, but some are just throwing so much it is inevitable. The elite softball pitcher got hurt on May 6th and was still in a boot and crutches a week ago. Only a freshman.
Appears TJ surgery is a rite of passage these days. I would watch him several times shake his hand out like the Braves young pitcher did last week when he tore his UCL. Saw that response way too many times.
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Here’s how I see it. (I’m sure I am wrong)
The Phillies unwilling to part with Painter.
They pretty much have Milller/Crawford/Tait almost untouchable except for the right player (Crochett).
Leaving Abel the most likely trade chip.
If you don’t part with Abel than Escobar is next in line. But the Phillies have to part with something significant to get something significant.
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I believe you are correct in your assessment. For me the Phillies need OF and BP help. I am not a big fan of the rental route. No doubt they are going to have to give up something of significant value to land the pieces that are most likely needed to make a serious postseason run.
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But will that something significant really tip the scales that much?
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One bad outing no big deal. Two in a row uh oh…
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Abel stays up now…Top said that…..will not be going back down to LHV.
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Ah how quickly things change. Remember when the Phillies had pitching depth to trade? Nola is re-injured, Luzardo is having a couple of rough starts in a row, and Wheeler is on the paternity list. They’re going to have a hard time winning if they’re starters don’t keep them in games because the offense can’t score against good pitching.
Decisions to make are so tough right now, but I’d be willing to trade any position player on the active roster not named Harper, Turner, or Schwarber if they have any value. I would be loathe to trade more than one of our top prospects (Painter, Abel, Crawford, Tait, or Escobar) because I think all could be really good and we need them all.
How then do you obtain an impact bat and a legit closer? No clue. This will be the season to see how good DD is at his job. I really would like to see Kemp up playing some 2B or 3B, more Sosa in LF, and Crawford in CF. Need to find places to get these prospects up and playing. If not, how do you make informed decisions on your needs and who can be traded or not. The guys they have in the lineup at the ML level aren’t good enough.
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Crawford needs to come up tomorrow. Stott has a .313 OBP. Let’s start there.
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I think just last week I was posing the option of trading Luzardo in the offseason to open up room for Abel. Not too many people were fond of my idea. I wonder if people will change their mind now…
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Back to back bad outings, must be the new “dew” …… call to the pen! Tell Mr. WILSON to start stretching, has the “smell” of a laugher!
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Luzardo has already pitched more innings then he did all of last year and if he pitches another 28 or so innings that will be the 2nd most of his career. Perhaps he just needs a trip to IL to rest his arm. No way they are considering trading him imo, they knew there was injury risk with him but I’m sure they will figure something out. Wheeler should be back soon, Nola we’ll see how he looks after all this rest.
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Hard to see a difference maker trade out there. I know some guys I’m tired of seeing in Philly uniforms but these guys have no market.
I’m coming around to the view to just build from within. Create competition for playing time to see how it impacts some of our laconic incumbents. This is a team ;losing some of its fan favorites, based on performance.
I’m convinced there’s a market for Ranger, and they should explore it. Maybe Sosa, too, since they’re not intent on using him. I’d hold on to the top tier prospects. The Phils are not one player away and it’s not as if our top prospects are valued as much elsewhere as they are with us.
This team needs a kick in the butt. I don’t see Topper administering it. He’ll say he saw some good depth in Luzardo’s pitches today and that there’s a lot for him to build on.
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Our boys are on the verge of dropping 6 of the last 7 games. The multi million dollar lineup has not hit against good pitching as demar210 wrote above. If things play out today, they will have scored 2 runs in 2 games against good pitching.
About that, I am going to toot my own horn. If you scroll up to Jun 3 at 7:59 AM, you’ll see that I wrote that Berrios always pitches the Phillies tough and Bassitt almost always baffles them. It’s a good thing that Gausman didn’t pitch the first game.
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maybe start by getting the dead weight out of the leadoff spot. Setting a bad tone.
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oh, and most teams don’t hit much vs. good pitchers or they wouldn’t be good pitchers.
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Not using Wilson enough era .000 and you can use him everyday! No worries on TJ or blowing up the arm. In my future BP, he is the pen. We will have all-starters except for him.
DD …… you can blow this baby up! It ain’t making it to the “big dance”, they can only play Pirates, A’s type teams. Too inconsistent in their play and bats don’t show up too much of the time.💣
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well, he certainly has been hitting like a pitcher.
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Reinvesting in this team at the trade deadline would be an exercise in futility. I believe the future could be quite bright with a little creative maneuvering. There’s also no way I’m giving Schwarber any kind of long term contract. I love the guy but he will not be enough to put us over the top. 2023 was their chance to grab a championship and it just didn’t happen. I can live with that but to double down over and over again seems to me to be a mistake.
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The most runs than any pitcher has allowed over a two-start stretch in modern baseball history.
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I think way too many people are being over dramatic about a team 12 games over .500
I fully believe the pitching staff will right the ship. Maybe certain guys won’t have the years we envisioned but as a whole I kinda have faith in the Starters & Relievers delivering for us.
I unfortunately have little faith this offense will be consistent and effective.
The offense needs to be the primary target for upgrade at the deadline and beyond. Gotham and the FO have shown their ability to address pitching. They need to fix….find an offense.
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You have faith in the relievers?
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Strahm has a track record. Romano has been pretty good after adjusting initially. Banks has been really good. Kerk has had his ups and downs but has come into big situations with men on base and been clutch.
Yeah the other half of the bullpen is a big question mark. I have faith they will figure it out and make moves to reinforce the pen and fix some guys.
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I don’t blame you for having faith in Strahm or Kerkering. But Romano hasn’t been good recently. He’s now sandwiched his 9 good appearances between a historically bad start with a run of 4 bad games in 5 appearances.
The only thing saving him from having 3 straight appearances of giving up at least 1 run is luck when the Braves couldn’t score off of 3 walks and a hit against him. But he imploded against the A’s, gave up a run against the Brewers, and now got walked off by the Jays.
He’s simply not a good reliever.
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I say bad luck for now…but I’m gonna not forget those outings.
A bunch of pitchers had issues with the mound vs the As. He was one of them.
The Jays’ hitters knew how to approach him.
Plus I feel a Fairbanks type acquisition would push him back to the 8th inning and mitigate his implosion.
I also believe someone on the 40 man roster or at AA/AAA will mature into a descent 6th/7th inning guy.
Seth Johnson? Lazar? Who knows.
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T5 … Crawford 3 — 3 2B 2 Rs .349 Bring him up we can use a few ground balls that actually go thru. 5 hits today vs Bluejays and Casty had 3 of them.
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Add in 3 rbis and another SB (22)
And Tait goes yard for #9
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Crawford just got removed from the game in the top of the 5th. I hope he’s headed to Pittsburgh.
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Hopefully
Dude is hitting .350 now , at some point they just gotta say F it , ground ball rate or not….
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Apparently his quad tightened up and pulled him as a precaution…
( ya get kinda tired when your on base 3 times a night)
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Jordan Romano has a WHIP of 1.63 and no ability to hold runners. Anybody see a problem there?
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https://x.com/ReadingFightins/status/1930760482392023518?t=5dDxwMHPGB_SE77t_ZvJPg&s=19
Aiden Miller flashing the leather
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Wow, he is gonna stick at SS.
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I guess it will come down to Trea Turner’s decision.
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Most of all Dave D’s trades so far…not sure how it all grades out.
Luzardo (for Caba)….
2.José Alvarado (for Garrett Cleavinger)….
3.Brandon Marsh (for Logan O’Hoppe)….
4. Carlos Estévez (for George Klassen and Sam Aldegheri)…
5. Edmundo Sosa (for JoJo Romero)….
6. Garrett Stubbs (for minor leaguer Logan Cerny)….
7. Austin Hays (for Seranthony Domínguez and Cristian Pache)….
8. Moisés Chace and Seth Johnson (for Gregory Soto)….9. Gregory Soto and Kody Clemens (for Nick Maton, Donny Sands and Matt Vierling) ….
10. Michael Lorenzen (for Hao-Yu Lee)….
11.Noah Syndergaard (for Mickey Moniak and Jadiel Sanxhez).
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Forgot Tanner Banks for William Bergolla
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So, in reality, we got very little in value and I’m sure some feel they lost a “sacred cow”, but I see nothing there of value we lost, like the value we got from the Sanchez deal. Your evaluation?
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Skeet…on the whole…it was a positive run for Dombrowski in the trade exchanges. Alvarado, Stubbs and Sosa he came out for the better….Marsh just not sure now.
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lost a sacred cow – 😂. hilariously
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My only gripe is the rentals that never really materialized and got us over the hump.
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Did anyone see the D-Backs come back from 6 runs down with 1 out in the 9th against the Braves?
Is it ok if I am a bit more reserved on Abel? I’m not seeing anything dynamic about his stuff. I’m seeing results that seem more akin to guys haven’t had a good look at him yet.
The hardest part about pitching in today’s MLB is fighting the data and your own tendencies.
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If Abel can maintain 95plus velo thru 6 innings…..with his breaking ball he can be very effective. And naturally he has to have control, and not so much command with the sustainment of higher velo.
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Being reserved is probably better for your mental health.
From what I’ve seen, his fastball and curve are both effective major league pitches as-is. His slider and/or change up need to improve for him to be effective the third time through the lineup consistently.
Considering how many pitchers our staff has implemented a sweeper for, I feel pretty good about that. But even if he can’t develop those pitches, his curve looks good enough that he could potentially pivot into being a high leverage reliever.
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Abel doesn’t have nasty stuff, but he has good velocity and enough secondary pitches to keep hitters honest. He also seems calm on the mound even though it looks like he’s talking to himself when he walks off the mound. I think he’s more of a 3/4 pitcher which is absolutely fine, even those guys get $15M-$20M per year.
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Miller and Kemp each had 3 walks last night. I love that.
The Inquirer’s David Murphy this morning–he’s pretty shrewd and level-headed-has good stats on how the Phillies’ offense has left teams pitchers with no room for error. He thinks the offense is stale, needs new blood, and could use the jolt of Crawford and Kemp.
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Noticed Kemp played LF last night and Crawford hitting over .340.
Phillies are desperate for OF bats. Maybe it means nothing but Wilson, Kepler and Marsh are not contributing to offense. Somethings got to change quickly. We are going down the drain.
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ESPN lists Joe Ross as the opener/starter tonight. Anybody know why?
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bullpen game
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Just read that it is Wheeler’s day and he’s not back yet.
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I wonder how long they wait if Kepler doesn’t turn it around as last year they DFA Whit Merrifield in July, he was making 7M plus a 1M buyout compared to Kepler’s 10M. Kepler in his last 30 gms is hitting .177/.259/.365 but in the last 7 gms .091/.167/.091
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Making matters worse, since May 1st, Johan Rojas is hitting just .178/.260/.267 The good news is Marsh since May 1st is hitting .292/.387/.415
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Maybe it’s just me but Marsh been less than stellar defensively in CF lately. He’s been on Keester tracking down flyballs and I thought that he made a very clumsy attempt at the one flyball that was charged to Mick Abels log as a hit and an earned run the other night. I thought that either Rojas or an inexperienced Justin Crawford would easily track that down.
If it sounds like I’m starting to lose faith in Marsh it’s because I am.
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I mentioned to Ruff that Kepler’s swing looks funky to me. I do not remember him swinging like that back in the Minny days.
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Weston Wilson has been a good soldier, accepting a role that protects the bullpen. With that said, he has 1 option left. I’d bring up Kemp to replace Wilson and let Kemp platoon in LF with Kepler. This is the lowest of low risk moves, perhaps forestalling more drastic moves. Sosa is still there to fill in LF in the case of a match-up seen as unfavorable to Kemp.
To me, Crawford deserves a call-up. But the likely counter-move is a demotion for Marsh. That could be a tougher pill for the Phils to swallow.
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Harper -$27M….Turner – $27M….JTR -$24M….Schwarber -$20M….Castellanos -$20M….Walker-$18M….Total…..$136M.
These eleven teams are below the Phillies Top Six in payroll:Royals, Marlins, Pirates, Reds, Brewers, A’s, Rays, WSox, Cle, Rockies, Nationals
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Baseball is 162 games, not a series. Yes team has flaws.
As a fan we can’t have it both ways – we complain when owners don’t spend, then we complain when they spend wrong. Only contract in that group that I have an issue is Walker.
Nola not mentioned, and that might prove to be the 2nd worse deal.
DD had the reputation of trading away the Farm. Well so far no trade the Farm.
Need patience. Deal will happen.
But also, lets realize – we’re a Top 7 MLB team, with high end Farm talent. This isn’t the 93 Phils.
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Castellanos was a horrible deal, especially when it piggybacked Schwarbers deal the same offseason. Two guys who can’t run or field. Completely redundant. Then you throw in Bohm and it’s a big eye roll. The Walker deal was completely avoidable and I feel a savvy GM would have seen the odds of Nola aging gracefully baseball wise and washed his hands leaving himself a descent amount of payroll to find more appropriate players to fill out the roster.
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Romus. This is just me and I have no data to back up anything. Having the Extra Innings package, I get to see bits of many games and many teams. I realize a team is NOT going to play 162 great games. I get that. What bugs me is it seems to me that the Phillies have many more games like yesterday where they just mail it in and really have no fight or competitiveness than do most of the other good teams. I know the other day when the Phillies gave up 17 the Yankees did 18. I may be way off base on this with say the top 10-12 teams. Maybe playoff caliber teams. All are around 60 games. I wonder how many games have been similar to the one yesterday. Romus this is something you can know in like two minutes. LOL
This does not even address your salary issue above. Over one third of teams less. Kind of wow. Baseball is the most lopsided money wise of the major leagues.
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The lineup has gotten stale.
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Don……..agree, in that sometimes it seems the team gets behind 3/4 runs and then that is it…..go thru the motion until the end. The bats seem to go silent.
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New discussion at Phillies Discussion 6/6/2025 | Phuture Phillies
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Stott last 30 games
.205/.256/.274
That’s a bad 9 hole hitter.
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