308 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion 5/23/2025”

1. Dan …… did you see Ottenbreit to the 7 day IL retro May 19.

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   1. I did not. What an odd series of events.

      Since it’s the 7 day, maybe it’s just like a blister or something.

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2. “In the modern era, the player with a long and prosperous career peaks at 30 stays relatively stable until age 33, declines gradually (around two or three runs per year) after that until age 38, and then declines by around five runs per year after that.”

   https://tht.fangraphs.com/how-do-baseball-players-age-part-2/

   Kyle is having a great year. Amazing. But a player’s peak is age 28-32 and he is 32. Anything beyond a 3 year deal is a non-starter for me. I would go $90/3 max offer.

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   1. Would you consider an extra year for a lower AAV like 4/96?

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      1. Kyle is already of the mindset past a 3 yr contract extension imho. On this team, he has an easy argument. I’ve heard him say/be quoted that he is off the mindset extending his prime years with skill,dedication to his craft, how he treats his body, and sports medicine. We may not agree,but it’s his stance. Similar to what Harper has been saying. A 3 yr contract extension wouldnt get to done. Youre look at 4 minimum, and your also talking about a 5th year. He will be the 2nd best bat on the market .. maybe the top Bat…. He will get 4 from someone. Im thinking 5/150 is the max he’ll get.. but i think it can be done for either 4/110-120 . I would be happy as a fan for 3/90 but I dont see him siging that. He’s got a lot of leverage imo to get more.

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         1. I’ll add…he’s going to want a 5yr deal, so he has a shot at the 500 hr club. He’ll be within striking distance if he can get near 50 this year. Hopefully 4/108 can get it done. It shoudl since he is just a DH, but MLB is famous for crazy contracts.

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            1. 5yr/$145M should do it…..$29M AAV.

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               1. Yeah I was thinking 5 yrs $136. $28 per first 4 yrs then $25 for the 5th yr.

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               2. Romus – you’re probably in the right zip code and my guess is they WILL give him close to $30 m per year and they WILL give him at least 5 years. Why? Because that’s how DD rolls – over extending and overpaying is his schtick – that’s why he’s only a good GM and not a great GM. He always pays too much and gives too many years.

                  Now, SHOULD they do this? That’s a more difficult question. V1’s general analysis about when players peak is spot on. Schwarber is a bit more difficult because he’s clearly improved quite a bit as a player, even during his time with the Phillies, and right now is as good or better than he has ever been. In a perfect world, you give him 3 years, but that will never get it done. In a less than perfect world, you pay more AAV and give him 4 years – that’s the deal that should get done. Personally, I think the deal is going to be 5 or 6 years with a slightly lower AAV, which is far too long, but I think it’s going to happen.

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               3. I think if Schwarber really likes the Phillies, he might give the Phillies a discount. If he’s chasing 1 last huge payday, he’s headed elsewhere.

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      2. I think I would rather 3/96 than 4/96.

         I think he is dead weight on the roster in his age 36 season.

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3. If the Phillies are truly interested in Tucker, would they want to hold off on extending schwarber at a big number for luxury tax purposes?

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   1. I seriously doubt that the Phillies are interested in Kyle Tucker at his price. I think the Phillies would rather re-sign Schwarber, but bidding for his services will be fierce.

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4. Easier said than done I know but you have to take the emotion out of it.

   Yankees again are a pretty good example with Soto shunning them. You may not get all those runs back with one player but you still have Harper and Turner and if you just improve the OF a little bit

   LF 706 OPS; RF 721 OPS; And the perpetual Achilles Heal CF OPS 606 and 657 respectively with the pitching we have we’ll still be very good.

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5. Who can lay claim to being the greatest catcher in Phillies history?

   In terms of WAR as a Phillie over the last 50 years, it’s:

   Realmuto 23.1 WAR

   Daulton 22.5 WAR

   Ruiz 21.7 WAR

   Lieberthal 15.6 WAR

   Boone 13.0 WAR

   I’d give the edge to Chooch because of the WS title. Is there an old-timer who was better than the guys above?

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   1. Who would have thought Mark Leiter Jr. would still be going as a BP weapon at age 34.

      He’s had some really up and down seasons but since last year his K/9 is over 13 LOL

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   2. Jack Clements…..24.9

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   3. It’s between Ruiz and Realmuto. Ruiz can really handle a staff but Realmuto was a hitting machine in his prime.

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   4. It’s very hard to choose among Ruiz, Daulton and Realmuto – all have very distinct selling points. At his peak, I think Daulton was the best of the 3, but he was hurt a lot and inconsistent year to year. Ruiz had that magic behind the plate and was incredibly clutch. Realmuto is the best athlete of the 3 and is the most consistent. All 3 were/are leaders but lead in different ways. The WAR numbers accurately reflect how difficult it is to choose among them. You certainly couldn’t go wrong with any of them.

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   5. Andy Semenick had a 16.3 WAR while in Philly, if my math’s right.

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   6. Having watched them all, but Boone, I’d go Realmuto, but if you’re going in a short span.. Dutch. He had the best 3 yr OPS run of the bunch. Ruiz was the most clutch from memory. I didn’t check his playoff stats, but he really seemed to get his hits when the team needed it or in the playoffs. He was the Phillies version of playoff Danny Biere. I will say, I think Lieberthal is a bit under appreciated. He batted .300 twice… one year, .300/31 hrs/.914 OPS… only 80-ish SO… with 44 walks. Hellva season.

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      1. I’ll add … Best arm, defense, & game calling I will go Realmuto for the win. Going to be a high bar for Catcher going forward.

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6. Keith Law was in Allentown for Painter’s latest start and had a write-up. Scouting Andrew Painter, George Lombard Jr., The Password, and more MLB prospect notes – The Athletic

   Key takeaways.

   Delivery is “fantastic”
   Called his curveball “Hilarious” and a “widowmaker”
   Fastball “plays” and he can throw it for strikes
   Slider/cutter is still a work in progress and needs to get tighter and it’s ready yet for major league hitters

   Was also disappointed that he didn’t throw any change-ups. Also indicated it was a tough night to pitch with cold temperatures and a steady drizzle.

   Also commented on Crawford who he still thinks hits too many ground balls for a guy with his power potential.

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   1. Slider is *Not” ready yet for major league hitters.

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      1. 3Up, ……. define “hilarious” for me …. don’t know what to make …. could be + or -!

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         1. In context of the article, basically it was so good it was hiariously good.

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            1. 👍

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7. The Rockies are currently 8-42. It’s hard to project after only 50 games but it’s looking like it’s a given that they will be worse than the White Sox last season which is mind boggling. But can the Rockies really lose 135 games?

   For all those who think that Castellanos’ contract with the Phillies is bad (2.1 total WAR so far), at least it’s not Kris Bryant’s contract with the Rockies. Bryant is hurt (again) and he’s still owed 3/81! Bryant has given the Rockies -1.5 WAR for his services. The Rockies have to be praying that Bryant does the right thing and retires soon.

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   1. You’re not wrong – and the Bryant contract seemed a huge mistake the day it was signed. It’s probably the worst contract in MLB history – at least Pujols and Cabrera did something under their contracts. Bryant has done nothing. They just gave that money away, plain and simple.

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      1. Man, remember when we wanted the Phillies to go after him?

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         1. Whoa, I wanted no part of Kris Bryant. He was going to be a DH soon enough (his defense was poor) and Boras was his agent.

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      2. Stephen Strasburg (7/245) is the worst contract ever. I criticized this deal when it was signed. Even though he retired, Strasburg will still get all of his money. Why? His original contract was already heavily deferred, but they deferred it even more in exchange for him receiving the remaining money on his contract.

         That’s a good retirement present from the Nationals.

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         1. At least Straburg helped Washington win a title and they were the beneficiaries of his earlier years; LAA with Rendon & Col with Bryant can’t point to either of those positives.

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            1. Rendon had one quite good (abbreviated) season at the start of his Angels tenure in 2020.

               But yeah, it’s been disastrous since then. And at least to Bryant’s credit, he says all the right things and acts like he wants to turn things around. Rendon is pretty clear about the fact that he doesn’t even like baseball.

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      3. Anthony Rendon says hold my beer.

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8. I wouldn’t have a problem giving that 5th year to Schwarber at this point. He’s improved each year he’s been here, is a team leader, and frankly who are you replacing his production with other than Tucker. There are no in house candidates in my opinion either. If you want a recent comp, look what Nellie Cruz did from his age 32-40. If he can do it so can Schwarber.

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   1. It’s easy to point to a unicorn like Nellie Cruz or David Ortiz and say that Schwarber can do it too, but the reality is that very, very few players actually can, including players who play well in their early 30s. It’s a crapshoot and the odds will be against him doing well past his mid-30s.

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9. It’s a thin market for teams in search of an arm for the rotation at this year’s trade deadline. I’m wondering if DD can free up some salary space by trading Taijuan for prospects if he Phils eat perhaps $12M total on Walker’s remaining deal.

   The savings could be applied to upgrading the pen in the near term and improve the 2026 budget picture.

   If DD could move Taijuan, I’d be content if the team held on to Ranger, even if they almost certainly lose him to free agency.

   It’s a strange position to be in advocating for a trade of Walker. But 1) the reduced life/burden of his contract, 2) Taijuan’s improved performance and 3) the thin market for SP makes it conceivable in a way I never would have thought previously.

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10. Did I read this correctly? I thought I saw an article that Realmuto would take a salary cut to stay in Philadelphia. If so, what would that be? Would you do 2 years at a total of $25M.? Would Luzardo take 3 and $45M knowing that his career could end at any time via injury.

    Schwarber has it over Cruz and Papi, IMO, because he runs really well for a DH. He blundered the other night but overall he goes first to third when he can. Cruz played 1B late into his career but was less than average. Papi played 1B because there was no DH in NL parks.

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    1. Huh? You need to recalibrate. If everything went perfectly, Schwarber would be the equal of Cruz and Ortiz after their 32nd birthdays. Cruz was a beast from ages 33-38, with OPS+ numbers frequently in the 140-160s – insane. David Ortiz’s age 40 season he was over a 1.000 OPS. These are extreme outlier older player numbers that Schwarber, even if he does very well, is highly unlikely to equal. If he does it will be an outcome you could not reasonably anticipate.

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    2. I think Realmuto understands his next contract isn’t going to be the $23 million per year he’s making today.

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11. Don’t understand why people get so hung up in contract lengths with guys like Schwarber or Turner.  The contracts are made with an expectation that the last couple of years will most likely be bad.  The goal is the fit the AAV into an overall annual payroll.

    The Mets gave Soto 15 years.  They certainly don’t expect him to be worth $50 per year when he’s 39/40.  Same with Vad at 14 years, Betts at 12 years, etc.

    Teams like the Phillies that live at the top of the tax threshold are looking for ways to minimize their tax year-over-year so carrying some dead $$ in the out years doesn’t matter that much overall. 

    Sure, it’d be great if they could sign a guy like Schwarber for a shorter period but that’s not what the market dictates.

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    1. Well, I get hung up because, in some of these deals there are a LOT of dead years and some of these dead years overlap which will effectively limit the team from using a good chunk of its allotted salary ‘s money on players that could help the team. This is going on right now with Castellanos and Walker – that’s $38 million with two guys that are very marginal. The Turner deal is the worst – with as many as 4 or 5 years where the team will have $27 million tied up on a guy who adds little to nothing. The Nola deal could be similar – we’ll see. If it were one superstar, you’d live with it. But it’s not one guy and it may end up being several guys – so, yeah, it’s probably going to be a problem and perhaps a big problem.

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       1. Except Castellanos and Walker aren’t dead money, they are actively contributing. You can argue they aren’t playing up to their full salary, (although 2025 Walker is certainly earning his $$$), but they aren’t dead money contracts on the books.

          We will see how much of Turner’s contract will add nothing at the back end, same with Nola.

          But fact is the Phillies have one of the best teams in the league with those “bad contracts” included.

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          1. You’re actually making my point for me. The point is that it’s bad enough with seriously underperforming bad contracts which is seriously tying their hands right now (they need another big hitter and relief pitcher and they are up against it on salary). It will be far worse when it’s truly dead money, and I expect a lot of dead money and more underperforming money.

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             1. No, I am hardly making your point for you. Your problem is with specific players, not that they are dead-money contracts. Were you happy that they signed Castellanos at all?

                We don’t live in some fantasy world where every player on the roster is playing up to their contract. That doesn’t happen anywhere is baseball and every team (except maybe the Dodgers) has a maximum payroll. If it was the NFL without guaranteed contracts, then you could just release them and not worry about it.

                Yes, the Phillies could choose to stay out of the top end of the FA market, but I would argue they also wouldn’t have the record they’ve had over the last 3 years without doing so.

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                1. My problem is with BOTH. DD both overpays players (which is its own problem) and then compounds the problem by making the deals too long. Nobody expects every player to live up to his contract, but the good teams and smart owners tend to sign many more good contracts than bad. I was not a huge fan of the Castellanos deal when it was signed. I thought the Walker deal seemed far too long and far too much money for a 3/4 (which was correct). With Turner I thought the deal was at least 4-5 years too long and I’m still very concerned about it – I hate that contract. I was pretty neutral on Nola and Realmuto. My view with DD – and it has proved true as a general rule – is that he does his best work when he has less money and his hands are tied. That’s what gave us Luzardo. But on the whole, I don’t really think DD is especially good when his pockets are full.

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                2. Everyone seems to love Castellanos the guy – I like him too. But he’s very mediocre and his contract is a problem. The Phillies signed him coming off a career year and he’s basically been a below replacement level player since then. Like Turner, his contract is both for too much money and is too long – if it’s not dead money, it’s damned close.

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                3. So, then your problem is/was the individual players, not the contract terms specifically, which was my original point. Don’t argue that they could have signed those guys for fewer years because if they could have it would have happened.

                   last point, are you good with Harper’s deal and will he be worth the $$$ when he’s 38-39 (the last 2 years of his deal)?

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             2. Giving out large, long deals is the nature of the beast in this current market and in the foreseeable future. It’s not our money and Middleton shows no signs of slowing spending or reducing the payroll where it currently stands.

                I’d much rather spend money to have a productive Harper, Turner, Tucker, Vladdy, type player for 6/7 years of a 10 year deal over a 2-3 year deal to a Joc Pederson. I”m 46 and have no desire to got back to the garbage we endured from the late 80’s to early 2000’s.

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    2. 3up…I see your point. And it can be to larger degree valid since the expectation of the last few years, lets say, 1/3rd of the last years of those contracts, will be less productive than the first years. Also , assuming the threshold does not stagnate, due to US economic issues, the threshold should continue to rise, which will also soften the blow for the contracts like those of Turner and Harper..

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       1. I don’t think the threshold is going to rise as much as you think. There are way more “have not” teams who are complaining about the spending and even now, teams are affording larger team salaries by deferring contracts. What’s going to happen if MLB puts an end to deferred deals?

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          1. Ending deferred deals would actually help the Phillies since they have rarely use them.

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       2. Yea Romus, the assumption is that the tax threshold will continue to rise. If it stagnates or falls like what happened to the Flyers in the NHL during Covid, then it’s a different matter.

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12. Outside of the segment of commenters in these chats talking about trading Walker for prospects by eating money (not happening) the most annoying theme is the WAR gospel. Look, im a data guy. I’ve been selling Analytic software for over a decade. (The software they use is some combination of Qlik, PowerBi, Looker, Tableau to make sense of their data that sits in a data warehouse like AWS, Snowflake, GCP or Azure).

    But this Isent math class it’s sports and doesn’t need all this context to make a point. It’s a man made data point that can only quantify surface level production based on interpretation. There is literally not even a definition of WAR. Just a couple research rags that have their own WAR numbers. Can’t quantify reality. Case in point:

    Ryan Howard: Age 26: 5 WAR:

    -58 HR
    -150 RBI
    -313 BA
    -425 OBP
    -1.084 OPS
    -84 XBH

    Joe Mauer: Age 36: 4 WAR:

    -7 HR
    -71 RBI
    -305 BA
    -384 OBP
    -801 OPS
    -44 XBH

    The WAR is very close because of defense apparently. This is a complete joke. Ryan Howard had 10 more errors than Mauer playing in 400 more innings playing first base (Joe DH a bit too). Plus maybe a couple more picks in the dirt? That gives them almost the same WAR???

    It’s offensive to Howard. The gap between their WAR should be infinity not 1. Who cares if Howard had 2 more errors a month and Mauer picked one ball in the dirt a week that Howard wouldn’t pick. It’s stupid.

    To that point, Casty has not been the stud bat I hoped we were getting but idc about his defense it’s fine. Makes all the plays that should be made. His WAR is where it is because he doesn’t flag down a ball in the gap once a week that a replacement player would apparently make? Yes, that’s why his WAR is where it is….

    Stop living by WAR. It’s not a baseball stat it’s a man made stat that is very very biased an subjective and not quantifiable and fluid.

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    1. You do have a point, WAR does have its inherent faults…..and can also give a false sense of precision, and it lumps together batting and defensive value without fully acknowledging the confidence levels in those areas. However what is a better all-inclusive and broad metric that involves the comparison of peer baseball players….WAR does provide the fan the comprehensive measure of a player’s value by considering their contribution across all facets of the game, from hitting and baserunning to fielding and pitching. But what it also does, on an equal comparative basis, provides team leadership and assist them in various team decisions, including player development, scouting, and strategy, how…..providing them a quantifiable measure of a player’s worth. 

       Your example above Howard vs Mauer…….Howard had 160 more PAs in that season, than Mauer in his age 34 season–his last-2017. A WAR for a player may increase based on longevity…the more games he plays in a season or even the longer his career.

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       1. My math was off…..on the example, Howard had just over 100 PAs that season than Mauer.

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       2. Baseball teams do NOT use WAR in any way, shape, or form. They have their own internal usually proprietary applications for team decisions, player development, scouting, etc.

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          1. Ok……seems MLB network Brian Kenny likes to bring up whenever he can to make his point, whenever he has team reps on with him.

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             1. MLB uses WAR (fWAR, I think) for some post season awards, the rookie ones (?). Years ago, I used to ask the scouts and dev people at the Complex about WAR. The more polite people explained that teams did not use WAR in favor of their own apps. The others actually laughed at me for thinking WAR was anything more than a stat for fans. Maybe those baseball people felt threatened by WAR and analytics.

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                1. Yeah……..wonder if teams will ever give an insight on what measurement tool they use vs bWAR or fWAR. Or even how they compare their own system to metrics like wRC+ or OPS+. Tom McCarthy on the telecast use to bring up all those metrics in the past…..have not heard him mention it much lately.

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    2. For someone who claims to be a data guy, you don’t talk like someone who knows about numbers. Your assertion that there is, “no definition” of WAR is patently false and very telling of what you actually know about it.

       It’s not an exact measure, but it is an EXTREMELY useful tool. And anyone that knows about it knows that it’s actually NOT gospel, but just a general overview that should be used in conjunction with other stats.

       By the way, ALL stats are man-made. At least in the way you’re talking about WAR. WAR isn’t just made up on the spot based on how someone feels about a player. It’s a composite of other stats. You can agree or disagree with whether the numbers they use are the best number to use, but they’re not just randomly assigning them. They’re all based on what happened in the actual games.

       Oh, and finally; RBIs are a team stat, not a player stat. Or do you actually think Garrett Atkins (.301/.367/.486, 111 RBIs) was a better hitter than Utley (.332/.410/.566, 103 RBIs) in 2007?

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    3. If that’s the best you got, you shouldn’t be critical of ideas others come up with. If there was an idea in what you posted, it died of loneliness.

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13. Now that the statistical WAR is over, so to speak ……… I am wondering about Aidan Miller’s prowess in the field. I see he already has 7 errors and we are still in May. How have the experts rated him?

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    1. I was wondering thebsame thing. Also how has he looked at the plate for anyone that has seen him?

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       1. No one seems to want to talk about his defense. I think his bat is improving, he seems to K a good deal, but I think it is getting a little better. Many say he is traditionally a slow starter ….. I can’t say one way or another.

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14. Crawford 3-4 with 2 more SB (18)

    .326 now

    getting redundant now… what to do

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    1. ……. with a BB to boot.

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15. If the Phils let Schwarber walk this off-season, then either Castellanos or Bohm could slide to DH and the team either shop for or promote a player to those spots. With that said I doubt there is anyone who would actually replace that power and you would be changing the dynamics of the line up.

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16. Just when I thought Jordan Romano had turned it around….3 hits and a walk in less than an inning….last night he let me down….thank goodness for Banks and striking out Butler.

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    1. Romano seemed to be struggling with the mount. Wheeler commented after the game that he was having trouble getting good footing because the mound was so hard.

       Romano seemed to be landing odd and falling off on his follow through.

       Apparently, it’s been a reoccurring issue with multiple pitchers from many different teams.

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       1. Especially pitchers who really use their legs like Wheeler. He said he couldn’t push off correctly with his left leg. I saw that Romano’s velocity was down. Hopefully it was just the mound. Just got out of that place with 2 more wins and healthy pitchers.

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    2. Well after Sunday they will not have to worry about ever going back there. Assume the new Vegas park will be in use, the next time they have to play the A’s

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       1. Doubtful. We’ve played them each of the past three years and their Vegas stadium isn’t scheduled to open until 2028. Can’t imagine we won’t have to play them again before then.

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          1. Well just maybe they will have their mound issues corrected by next season.

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17. It looked like Romano slipped on several pitches at that.

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18. Abel 6.0 innings 3 Hs 1R 1 ER 4 BBs 8 Ks W/L 6-2

    Crawford 1 — 3 2 RBI 1 BB

    Mercado 3 — 3

    Game 2

    Tyler 6.0 innings 1 H 2 R 2 ER 1 BB 6 Ks W/L 5-2

    Crawford & Kemp* 1 – 2 w/2 RBIs 1 BB *HR#12

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19. Is Langeluers a guy we should target?

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    1. No resign JT.

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       1. Perhaps…but for two years max.

          Need to groom or get a younger catcher.

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20. Looks like the mound is an issue for Sanchez / he can’t throw strikes !

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21. WoW! What a game. Max Kepler game tying HR. Bullpen bending but not breaking and without their top 2 arms! Logan Davidson with a RoUgH debut.

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22. Reading and Jersey Shore are having terrible seasons so far while Clearwater is playing 500 ball (thanks to only two guys). Only a few guys in the system are playing well to date. Lots of underachieving taking place so far. Let’s hope things turn around soon.

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    1. I remember 5/6 years ago, out the end- of -a- season presser, John Middleton was talking how great the farm system was……how all the teams were virtually in their respective minor league play-offs……it produced basically three position players…Bohm, Stott and Rojas……and pitcher Sanchez.

       I would not get too disappointed in a minor league team struggling. Nice to have them all with winning records…..but sometimes they are made up of older, college prospects beating up and playing against younger players.

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       1. ….and suppose Marsh could be counted in some way in that production, since O’Hoppe begat Marsh.

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    2. Reading has Marcus Lee Sang/Keaton Anthony/Henry Mendez off to good starts. Mike is struggling. Ricketts is injured. If Miller turns it up then i could care less about their record.

       It looks like the Clearwater rotation isn’t horrible. It’s the relievers it seems.

       what’s most concerning is the 2024 draft class is currently not providing much. Hopefully they turn it around.

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       1. Miller not Mike

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          1. He has come on…last 20 games he is slashing …..265/.342/.382….discount the first week of April games and he is having a respectable season for a 21-year old facing AA pitching.

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    3. I differ in your opinion that Clearwater has only two players doing well. Obviously everyone can see that Aroon Escobar and Eduardo Tait are both having success but others have also progressed. Brady Day has been solid at third base all season both offensively and defensively. Raider Tello in a limited role has produced. Avery Owusu-Asiedu has shown marked improvement over last season. On the pitching side Ryan Dromboski, Luke Gabrysh and Ryan Degges have all done very well as starters/bulk relievers while Jose Peña Jr, Kevin Warunek, Saul Teran and Titan Hayes have pitched very well as regular bullpen relievers. 

       Jersey Shore is short on offense which is why Matt Higgins and Cole Roberts were added as veteran bats to try to kick start em.  Bryan Rincon has been inconsistent but still shows flashes of the skillset that makes scouts intrigued. Carson DeMartini has been solid, is challenged defensively but can swing the bat. Devin Saltiban suffered a really tough injury and will be out for awhile. The outfield there is open for someone to step up, Elio Prado was sent down from Reading to reset. On the hill Casey Steward has battled some mechanical issues but he’s got talent, has shown it in spurts. Jaydenn Estanista has been solid and will bump up, likely for the second half. After a slow start Alex McFarlane has thrown well in May – big arm and great kid.

       At Reading Aidan Miller has had some nagging injuries but will never make that an excuse, he’s old school in that he plays thru stuff without any worries, he’s been inconsistent defensively but I’ll chalk that up to growing pains, offensively he’s been better this month – is just young, anyone who watches him sees the talent but he’s still gotta produce the numbers, he’s an incredibly good person, one to root for.  Hendry Mendez has been solid all year as has Keaton Anthony – Hendry has an awkward swing but if everyone were the same it’s video game baseball, right 🤓.  Keaton is purely a first baseman, doesn’t have the athleticism to play the outfield regularly but he sure can hit. Felix Reyes has produced when given the opportunity.  The catching corps has been banged up most of the year.  On the mound there’s not been a lot of upside consistency however Tommy McCollum is back with Reading and throwing well.  Jim and I watched Griff McGarry and Daniel Harper throw their first live BP’s this week in Clearwater – they will help but are a few weeks out still.  

       Lehigh Valley has been outstanding – Otto Kemp homered last night again, hit a sweeper – a pitch some say he can’t hit 😂. 

       That’s my take – it’s not always about the numbers – just sayin.

       Steve Potter

       Happy Day, Happy Baseball ⚾️ 

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23. There are only a handful or two of contributing major leaguers in the farm system. The rest of the players are there because the prospects need teammates (need nine guys on the field).

    Crawford up to .328 and Kemp at .323 with a 1.043 OPS. Abel with a strong start, 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 8 K, but with 4 BB.

    A lot of folks thought Nori was an overdraft in the first round, especially given how old he was. Now, as a 20-year-old in A ball, his production (.610 OPS) is not good. Hope he turns it around.

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    1. I feel the whole 24 draft is a mess.

       Why would you draft a guy in the first round that scouts are listing into 0 power tool?

       Just don’t get it, even with the under slot deal, I feel any pitcher available woulda have been better.

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       1. Agreed. Going HS the first 2 picks then 18 straight College bats. I still have faith some of these bats will turn it around.

          Titan Hayes and Ryan Degges have shown signs of success.

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          1. Agreed on those two. And Carson DeMartini might turn into a player. And who knows about John Spikerman?

             With Nori, he needs to show signs of life over the next 12 months or so or it is VERY unlikely that he will develop into a useful major leaguer. On the one hand, there is the saying “don’t scout the stat line.” OTOH, it is exceedingly rare for a player to not be able to hit at any level in his first, say, 700 plate appearances in the minors and then turn into a MLB-quality hitter. To use a current example, we’d all bet that Kehden Hettiger (.185 hitter in his first 428 minor league plate appearances, never above .200 at any level) won’t be a good MLB hitter. By the way, he was another old high school pick (19 at his HS graduation) but in that case at least it was the 11th round, though about a $400k bonus.

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             1. That was the knock on drafting older HS players…say 19 years old ….they beat up on HS players who are 17 or 18. And I can tell there is quite a bit of difference in athleticism as teenagers in that two year span. Nori will need to adjust, and can be done with plenty of hard work. I remember the Mets draftig an older HS player from Texas….Brett Baty, 3B player…he made it to the majors but is struggling.

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    2. The Phillies have 4 guys in the top 100, with Painter and Crawford who are close. Abel will get another shot in the bigs soon enough. Kemp will eventually make his debut, maybe this year. All any team can hope for is giving opportunities to their deserved prospects and hope for the best. Nobody knows how they will react/adjust when they get here.

       I’ve mentioned previously that you’re doing your job if you get 1 starter in a draft. But there will be years where you get no starters, that’s the nature of the game. There’s a reason why FA exists.

       That said, the Phillies farm system has improved to the point where this is probably their best list of prospects in the last decade. So we’ll see what happens.

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       1. Guru, part of my belief of a successful farm isnt just producing MLB players. It’s also trading prospects that other teams seem to want for needs either elsewhere in the system or at the major league.

          Drafts like the 2012 really set teams back and that was after the 2011 draft that delivered more promises and hope than results.

          I’m not writing off 2024 at all. But Guys like Mike Costanzo, Jason Knapp, and Michael Taylor didn’t have majored league careers but we’re vital parts in trades to get better players.

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          1. 2012 was 13 years ago. Are we really complaining about something that long ago?

             The Phillies have traded their share of young players away:

             Curtis Mead (for Sanchez)

             JoJo Romero (for Sosa)

             Sixto Sanchez, Jorge Alfaro (for Realmuto)

             Logan O’Hoppe (for Marsh)

             Starlyn Caba (for Luzardo)

             Garrett Cleavinger (3 way deal for Alvarado)

             William Bergolla (for Banks)

             And this is just for players on the current roster.

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             1. Most of the guys you listed weren’t drafted but International signers.

                Yes the Phillies have made quality trades with prospects but one of the reasons they hit their downfall was poor drafting. That’s why the rotation and pen were a mess for years.

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                1. Only the small market teams have a lot of prospects on their roster because they don’t want to spend. Most big market teams traded away their prospects.

                   Were the Phillies poor at drafting in the past? Yes. Are they getting better now? Yes. Could they be better? Of course. But check out the other big market teams and see who on their roster are home grown talent. Outside of maybe the Braves (who don’t really want to spend), most teams don’t have more than 6 drafted players in their main 14 players (9 main hitters and 5 starters).

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          2. And I’m not sure if you know this, but Michael Taylor wasn’t the reason why Roy Halladay was traded to Philadelphia. Halladay told Blue Jays management that he wanted to go to Philadelphia and nowhere else. My buddy, the Blue Jays fan, was pissed because he knew that Drabek and Taylor were crap. If the Blue Jays were able to trade Halladay elsewhere, 100% he’s not getting traded to Philadelphia.

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             1. True. Fair point.

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          3. Just an FYI there are currently 62 players who were originally signed by the Phillies as draftees or amateur free agents on the rosters of other major league organizations with 15 of those players on the active major league roster. 

             Dominguez

             Eflin

             Martinez

             Gilbert 

             Maton 

             Bergolla

             Cerny

             Urias 

             Leiter Jr

             Carrasco

             Hernandez 

             Leibrandt 

             Rumfield 

             Pacheco 

             Vierling 

             Lee 

             Aldegheri 

             d’Arnaud

             O’Hoppe

             Klassen 

             Brogdon 

             Kingery 

             Waguespack

             Seabold

             McArthur

             Crawford 

             Medina 

             Leverett 

             Ruffcorn 

             Gowdy

             Marcano 

             Yanez

             Anderson 

             Buchanan 

             Williams 

             Hughes 

             Brown 

             Caba

             Boyd 

             Valdez 

             Moniak

             Burch

             Gose

             Rios

             Schreffler 

             Hoskins 

             McWilliams 

             Martin

             Y Garcia 

             L Garcia

             Simmons 

             Falter 

             Hall

             Gutierrez 

             Pichardo 

             Duran 

             Davis 

             De La Cruz 

             Romero 

             Gomez 

             Santos 

             Miller 

             Ragsdale 

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             1. This is a good yard marker. Another would be the number of starters on MLB teams. Another would be the number of All Star appearances by Phils’ signees, currently and over the past 60 years, Ditto for the number of Hall of Famers.

                I gradually came to a realization that the Phils haven’t been strong in talent identification/player development, As Guru pointed out, the Phils compensate in free agency. Some food may be better than it tastes. Some music may be better than it sounds. Maybe the Phils’ record in this area is better than it looks.

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24. By my math, if you’re only averaging 1 starter per year from the draft , you have to have quality intake of youth from some other source. That means Latin American or other international signings. I don’t see the Phils excelling in any of these areas going back to 1965 and the first draft. Not with starting pitching or closer-quality relievers, catchers or outfielders. They have a pretty good track record with infielders.

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    1. I don’t disagree with what you’re saying, that’s why the Phillies have a lot of FAs on their team.

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25. Kemp with 15 HBP in the first two months of the season…he may set a record for the season at this pace. In the MLB modern era, Ron Hunt with the Expos had 50 in one season.

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26. Can always tell when the Phillies are playing well. The bitching turns to the team’s draft history.

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    1. Ha! Well in fairness… there is a lot of meat on the bone to still pick at. Moniak’s lack of development really hurt this team. They’d have o’hoppe if so. That would be a major swing for this team. Im not crying because I enjoyed the short term gain, but now the long term pain is setting in. Looks like he is one of the few prospects that may sting. I can deal with that. For instance, Brown to CHI… no pain whatsoever… other than Robertson sucked.

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       1. That’s the nature of the trade. Most prospects will fail, but some won’t. You can’t expect the Phillies to always trade away prospects that fail.

          And just a year later, the Twins drafted Royce Lewis #1 in 2017. What has he done? 3.2 career WAR. He currently has a .464 OPS for the Twins. Does it suck for the Twins? I’m pretty sure any Twins fan will say it does.

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27. Now that Luzardo’s day is (almost definitely) done and he officially can’t pick up his first loss of the year, I feel it’s safe to say this without it coming off as sour grapes:

    MLB should be absolutely EMBARRASSED that they allowed the A’s to subject players and fans to this field. It’s bad enough that they let the owner get away with negotiating in bad faith to relocate the team. But then allowing them to use a sub-standard facility just in the name of saving/making a little more money is a travesty. At least the Rays have the “act of god” excuse.

    And no disrespect to the grounds keepers of the park; they’re trying to do an impossible job. This is squarely on the A’s and MLB as a whole. They have more money than a lot of countries, but they act like penny pinchers. The only silver lining is none of our SP hurt themselves trying to adjust to it.

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28. If Strahm continues to struggle, the Phils are really going to need another left hander out of the pen.

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29. For myself, I posted on this in the off-season when the Phils’ record was 0-0.

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30. Looks like Aaron Nola still has a sore ankle and won’t be reinstated the first chance the Phillies get. ESPN has Walker starting Tuesday vs Atlanta and Sunday vs the Brewers.

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31. Rob Manfred makes me pine for the days of Bud Selig

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32. Reference has come up with a single quantifiable number to identify a NFL player’s likelihood of being a Hall of Fame selectee. Wonder if they will do that with the baseball side of their site….as an addition besides WAR.

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/hof/hofm_QB.htm

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33. The coming weeks offer a chance for the Phils to assess the need To go outside the system for bullpen help. Intelligent decision-making and strong performance on the field reduces the cost in prospects or otherwise for what they need.

    The Phils have expressed a plan for Andrew Painter during this time window. He’d be introduced into the rotation on a pitch limit, and likely an innings limit. Makes sense to me. He’d come into a rotation with, hopefully, at least 5 healthy starters — from Wheeler, Luzardo, Sanchez, Nola, Suarez, Walker. Some bumping will take place there.

    Nothing new there. But is there a plan for Mick Abel, whose path forward in the rotation seems pretty well blocked. If the bullpen was strong, you could justify putting Abel on the back burner, to further develop his pitch arsenal and prepare for 2026. But it (bullpen) isn’t and I think the Phils are unwise to ignore what Abel can offer this year. I’d want to know if Abel could be a reliable 6th/7th inning piece in the pen. I wouldn’t hope for more.

    If, by this means, you reduce what the Phils need in the pen, maybe you reduce the cost — including the prospect cost — of the Phils ‘shopping at the deadline.

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    1. Agreed. I have 2 outlooks for how Abel can best help this team. 1st, if he is going to be traded, I’d prefer he is traded for a longer term solution in Catcher. If LAD or BAL’s catching prospect are on the trade market… Abel or Ranger should get it done as one or 2 of the main center pieces, not both. Then you can let Realmuto walk or Negotiate a great contract if he wants to stay. Then Tait is trade bat later on in the upcoming years for upgrades or the traded for C.

       if thats is not possible, I want Abel in the pen. He can do the 6-7th imo no major issues… or no worse than what we have. I roll that dice and try to get an additional arm depending on the cost. If it is super high… you really have to consider Painter out of the pen, but not in the traditional roll. He can pitcher as the opener & bullpen days he would be available. Adjust his availablily with how the playoff series days off go.

       You don’t necessarily need a LH bullpen arm… you just need someone who can get LH out… Will see.. to me this is NOT an all in year. It’s a setup for the next 4 if you can get schwarber resigned.

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    2. Agreed. I have 2 outlooks for how Abel can best help this team. 1st, if he is going to be traded, I’d prefer he is traded for a longer term solution in Catcher. If LAD or BAL’s catching prospect are on the trade market… Abel or Ranger should get it done as one or 2 of the main center pieces, not both. Then you can let Realmuto walk or Negotiate a great contract if he wants to stay. Then Tait is trade bat later on in the upcoming years for upgrades or the traded for C.

       if thats is not possible, I want Abel in the pen. He can do the 6-7th imo no major issues… or no worse than what we have. I roll that dice and try to get an additional arm depending on the cost. If it is super high… you really have to consider Painter out of the pen, but not in the traditional roll. He can pitcher as the opener & bullpen days he would be available. Adjust his availablily with how the playoff series days off go.

       You don’t necessarily need a LH bullpen arm… you just need someone who can get LH out… Will see.. to me this is NOT an all in year. It’s a setup for the next 4 if you can get schwarber resigned.

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       1. I don’t see the Dodgers trading Rushing anytime soon. I also don’t see Ranger being traded this season.

          I’m in favored of bringing back JT on a reduced salary. His work with the pitchers in my opinion is worth his roster spot.

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       2. It’s Memorial Day and here are perhaps 8 teams that are no longer “all in.” By the trade deadline, there likely will be about a half dozen more. The Phillies are “all in.” Meaning,every move they make contemplates their competitiveness this year.

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          1. by all in, I meaning they need to trade marginal prospects for a lower tier rental vs our better prospect chips for a piece that supposedly could really help them this year. I personally do not believe this team is THAT close. I want it to be true, but this team could be up a creek with some go for it moves in 2026 & beyond. Will see, im just an armchair QB over here, but thats the way i see it now. They needed 2 BP before Alvarado went down… now 3.

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34. If there ever was a season to go all in, this is it. What would an all in trade look like?

    Oneil Cruz + Bednar for Rojas, Aidan Miller, Mick Abel and another prospect in the 11-20 range.

    Thoughts?

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    1. I don’t believe in ONeil Cruz, either. Wonderful athlete, but he really struggles with elite pitching – I don’t think that trade would get us over the top and we would come to regret it when Abel emerges as a legit #2 and we would wonder what a Painter/Abel due would have looked like. No thanks.

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    2. O’Neil Cruz has too much swing and miss in his game. And for some reason he’s negative dWar the last 2 years.

       Relievers are volatile and Bednar looks like he’s lost it. And he’s not that cheap ($5.9M this season). He’s probably looking at $7M for 2026. The Pirates will be motivated to trade Bednar at the deadline. I think Jean Cabrera alone can get Bednar.

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       1. I was actually thinking that Boston might want to move Chapman at the deadline and Cabrera might be the right package for him too.

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       2. Cruz, defensively, leads the league in errors- 6- as a CFer in less than 45 games this year. That will reflect in his poor DRS and dWAR.

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35. I think the Phillies have all the pitching they need in-house. This is just a matter of planning and allocation of resources. If they can’t figure it out when the answer is staring them in the face, shame on them.

    I believe the bigger problem is hitting. For 3 years in a row, this team has just gotten so cold at some point in the postseason. And not just cold. Frigid. Ineffectual. And they really don’t have any new players – they just keep running it back on offense.

    They need more hitting. While I believe in certain individual hitters, on the whole, I really don’t believe in this offense very much.

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    1. They really could use one more solid RH bat…..preferably as an OFer. Like to see if Wes Wilson could be that guy….he has nothing to prove in the minors anymore.

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       1. I saw Hoskins name being floated out there… lol you wanna run back 22’ again? Hes the kind of the bat they do need… just more defensive ability. Maybe Harper in the OF, and in the late innings Harper to 1st, Rojas in CF, shift the other guys Betwenn LF& RF

          On O’Neil … he does look like he may have turned a corner… his BB to SO ratio is much better through the 1st 50 games. Did he figure something out? His WAR is up for those who look at that… 11hrs .. and finally an OPS over .800. I’d like to see a better OPS if im giving that much up. That said… if you made this move, you’d have to belive in Kemp as well … Because I don’t see Bohm at 3B long term anymore. If you believed in Miller, you could likely move Turner to 3B or 2B and rotate Stott & Milller were needed. On Bednar… not sure how much i believe in him, his SO/9 are up but smaller sample size. His ERA is pretty damn high too for the last 1.5 years. Again… just makes me want to pull back and tip toe this year to really make a big push the next 2-3, possibly 4 years.

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          1. Hoskins should be a DH. If the Phils lose Schwarber in free agency, it would be a PR nightmare. If the Brewers bought out Hoskins’ ’26 option, there are worse things than a Hoskins reunion on a 2-year deal. By 2028, I see Harper as the Phils’ DH, at least part-time.

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             1. Yes, there would be worse things than having Hoskins as the DH in 2026, but let’s be clear, that’s an enormous downgrade if they lose Schwarber (which I don’t think will happen).

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36. I commend Steve Potter’s write-up on Justin /Crawford in “A Fan’s View.” I hope the Phils see Crawford the way Steve does because it means Crawford won’t get traded and that he’s seemingly close (Steve doesn’t exactly say it) to making a real contribution. To me, the left-handed Crawford could provide the spark in the lineup the team needs.

    It would be an “all in” move for the Phils to free up room on the big roster for Crawford now. With elite speed and bat-to-ball skills (in MiLB in the case of the latter), you’d love to see if Crawford could be the first brick in the rebuild of an OF in need of strengthening.

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    1. The only way Crawford will get playing time in 2025 is if there is a serious injury (oblique or worse) to one of the starting OFs or somebody really goes into the tank offensively. Otherwise, we’ll see Crawford in ST 2026.

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    2. Here’s the article https://www.philliesbaseballfan.com/post/5-25-25-phillies-minor-leagues-week-in-review-5-19-5-25

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37. Phillies have another chance to KO the Braves for the East Imo. Win the series, 9.5 game lead will put the divison out of reach. With our bullpen in flux and Acuna & Stridor back, great time to capitalize. I hope they smell the blood in the water.

    On the upcoming deadline, im not optimistic that the parts the Phils need are out there for a reasonable price. Same goes for the next FA period. I hope DD infuses the youth, and adds at the margins. On the bullpen, i’d start kicking tires on Sir A over Robertson. Robertson is a guaranteed late inning lead change at this point.

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38. Abel is the winningest pitcher in AAA baseball. Doesn’t include his MLB victory over the Pirates. Crawford and Kemp have the 6th and 11th highest batting averages in AAA. There are other supporting stats for the three.

    This is exciting stuff. It would be even more exciting if we had an inkling of how the Phils might incorporate them, aside from as trade chips. Kemp is 25 and was undrafted. Crawford displays no power. Abel has only recently discovered his command of pitches. Probably every prospect has a blemish.

    I hope the Phils retain them (and Painter) and find other ways to improve the team. Abel is one of the innings leaders in AAA. If they’re budgeting Painter’s use to benefit the big team, Iwish they’d do the same with Abel. I’d love to see him as next man up with the thought of strengthening the pen.

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    1. If Kemp and Crawford are that good, they need playing time to maximize their talent. It makes no sense for the Phillies to promote them and sit on the bench getting 1 start per week. And Abel is very clearly the next starting pitcher up if somebody goes down RIGHT NOW. This may change in July when Painter might be ready.

       Crawford has a clear path to CF in 2026. It’s almost undeniable at this point. I doubt he’s getting traded.

       Kemp is shakier. His best path is 3B and he’s blocked by Bohm. But I can see Kemp fighting for a bench job in ST, if he doesn’t get traded.

       Abel seems to have the turned the corner. But the Phillies have a numbers crunch for starting pitching for 2026 (which is a good problem to have). Also, Abel is doing so well that I seriously doubt the Phillies will ask him to go into the bullpen. I don’t think the Phillies want to trade Abel, but if a trade comes along that makes sense, he could be gone.

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    2. Abel….innings limitation!

       He has pitched over 100 innings each of the last three seasons….he turns 24 in August-physically he should be able to handle a larger workload ……he very well could be labeled someday as an ‘innings eating’ pitcher. I think he could go to 120/130 innings this year. He has about 60 innings already in the first two months…..another 60/70 innings, maybe another 10/12 starts should not be a large concern.

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39. I had hoped for a 4 of 7 road trip so I’ll take the 6 of 7 as a huge door prize. Given that there are many seasons within the season the next step for this roster as constituted is how they play against the better competition.

    I’m not expending any more energy trying to conceptualize why or why not this team is equipped to win a WS. Nobody cares and nobody pays me to do so.

    For now I intend to just enjoy the baseball they are playing. If I fall off the wagon slap me.

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40. Two of the very worst trades in the modern era — Ryne Sandberg and Ferguson Jenkins — were trades the Phils made of players who had a cup of coffee in the big leagues but were essentially prospects they barely knew and appreciated. Hope Abel isn’t the third.

    I think the Phils now believe in developing arms and buying bats. I hope they apply that to Abel.

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    1. That may be true, but if they are waiving the white flag on developing bats, they should stop taking them in the first couple of rounds of the draft, which is what they’ve done the last few drafts. Based on what I’ve seen recently, the Phillies are still struggling with identifying and drafting position players, although it seems to be getting a little better and their international efforts really seem to have improved.

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    2. As we are seeing with Escobar and Tait….and Caba before the trade……they may be starting to ID Latin future position stars. Rojas made not be the star impactful player people would have likes to see, but he does play a very key role on the team.

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       1. Escobar and Tait are perhaps the best L.A. hitting prosects we’ve had in decades. Seriously, decades.

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          1. Since Julio Franco?

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             1. …and also Juan Samuel…the 80s. Cesar H, could have been but, fell short

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41. JT dropped to 8th in the lineup tonight, Bohm back up to 5th.

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    1. Casty and JT should be batting 7th and 8th every day.

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42. The Phillies had a glorious chance in the second inning Sunday when Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Max Kepler drew three consecutive walks to load the bases with nobody out. But J.T. Realmuto, batting seventh, hit into his team-leading 10th double play of the season. That’s tied for second-most in all of baseball.

    Realmuto’s previous season high in double plays is 13, in 2017 with the Miami Marlins. He’s averaged eight per season since joining the Phillies in 2019.

    He hasn’t had his proper timing at the plate for much of the season. Teams have attacked Realmuto with spin; he entered Sunday batting .135 with a .311 slugging percentage against non-fastballs. He’s hit fastballs from righties, and that’s about it. Realmuto is batting an unfathomable .098/.148/.137 in 54 plate appearances against lefties.

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    1. For all those who don’t believe that catchers fall off a cliff in their 30s, this is what I’m talking about. Realmuto, age 34, has a .684 OPS which would be one of the worst of his career over a full season. He’s looking at a 1.2 WAR season.

       Another catching peer, Salvador Perez has been very good for the Royals. But he too has declined:

       age 33: 0.4 WAR

       age 34: 2.5 WAR

       2025, age 35: -1 WAR!!!

       Pretty sure the Royals are not picking up Perez’s team option for 2026.

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       1. Even future HoF nominee…Yadier….with 9 GG, Platinums, numerous all-star selections and silver slugger awards….his.last 8 years (age 32-39) with the Cardinals…total 10.9WAR…..or 1.3WAR average per year….

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          1. I’m sure this is true, but as devils advocate… I’d bet there is a decent chance that Realmuto could fade more gracefully for a 1-2 year period. I’d take that bet because be can run & is not overweight. Now, anything more than 2 for less than he is getting paid now is ideal … unless they are so far below the cap by pushing the young bucks that his salary doesn’t really matter for the time period … so be it… that said I’m pretty adamant about getting one of the top catching prospects out there with either Ranger or Abel

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             1. Fade more gracefully? He’s fading gracefully right now. Thankfully his defense is still intact. It may not be next season at age 35.

                That said, the Phillies don’t have options at catcher. I would still give JT 1 year, $12M with a team option of $14M for 2026 (buyout of $2M).

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                1. They will probably do something like this but they shouldn’t. The end of each Phillies glory period is littered with stupid big contracts with old, declining players. I think it’s crime they don’t let Marchan play more. That’s on Topper.

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                2. I think 2yrs $24 million is more than fair to JT. He’s a GIDP machine but he’s still i think an above average receiver. And as much as some think Cotham is a magician, JT has to get some credit over the yrs here. I say keep him. Heck $12/ yr is still saving the team money based off his salary this yr!

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       2. I love JT but I think that he’s washed. I would not pay him in the offseason unless something big changes.

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          1. V1, I have a question. In that trade you proposed, why Bednar? Why not Santana? He’s cheaper, a year younger, under control for one more year (2), has the same number of saves as Bednar, and a much lower ERA.

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             1. I think with Bednar you also get the lefty you are looking for to replace Alvarado.

                I think Santana would cost just as much in terms of prospects.

                I also think they both have the same amount of control remaining.

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                1. Bednar is a RHP as is Santana. Bednar reaches free agency after the 2026 season, Santana after the 2027 season.

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             2. Santana is a journeyman with no track record of success who is having a great year. His ERA is 1.54 but he has a 4.09 xERA. and he only has 7.71 K/9.

                Bednar is the opposite. Long history as a closer. Elite K/9 of 12.96. xERA that is 1.2 runs less than ERA. Getting unlucky with a .429 BABIP.

                I would bet on Bednar over Santana. but that’s my pov.

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                1. Thank you.

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                2. You do the deal I proposed? You like Cruz? He is 26 so entering his prime. Walks a lot. Good power and steals bases. Electric arm in CF. It’s a bet on him mostly becoming an all-star during his prime years.

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                3. I don’t know. Cruz fascinates me. But he does strike out a lot (over 30%) and he doesn’t seem to have a position. He’d another left-handed bat in a lineup that sorely needs a right-handed bat.

                   I’m guilty of being too attached to our prospects. But I can part with Rojas. He’s not being used correctly here, IMHO he should be the everyday starter in CF. If he’s not going to be used that way, then trade him. I like Miller, too, but he’s not exactly tearing it up at AA in a way that gives any confidence that he will be successful in the majors. The 11-20 range includes Johnson, Cabrera, Escobar, Rincon, McFarlane, Castellano, Pan. At least a couple of those guys I would hate to trade. And finally, Mick Abel. I’ve always liked him. I wasn’t surprised he threw well in his debut. I was surprised at how well and how deep into the game he threw. Looking ahead, although we have depth at starting pitcher, I believe that even if Suarez survives the trade deadline, he will be lost to free agency. I don’t think the Phillies will extend him. Nola’s injury is worrisome. Walker is at present a positive rotation piece, but for how long. Luzardo is a free agent after the 2026 season. Abel could be an important, inexpensive part of the rotation by 2026, but who knows how to predict future performance based on one appearance.

                   I would hope that a less expensive prospect package could be offered.

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          2. I think JT’s receiving skills and his relationship with the pitching staff is worth a reasonable contract extension.

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             1. with catchers it always is about alternatives. there are not a lot of great ones. but really, his hitting is a mess and has been for a while. It all depends on his contract I guess. but I would not pay $20m AAV even for 1 year.

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                1. Agreed. JT would have to take a pay cut. $25 for 2 yrs.

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       3. Article is from 2013 but I suspect the results today are similar.

          Catcher Aging is a Curve, Not a Cliff | FanGraphs Baseball

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    2. should credit Gelb if you’re going to cut/paste large parts of his article.

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       1. it was in there. Must of not gotten copied before I pasted. Was picking up kiddos at school.

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43. Not including playoff games and games this season the Philles are 56-64 versus the Braves since 2017. Against the Mets they are 98-131 since 2012.

    They need to play at least 7-6 or 6-7 during the season against these two teams. At present they are 1-2 with the Braves and 0-3 with the Mets.

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    1. These last half-dozen years with the two greatest ever free agents on the Phillies…Harper and Wheeler….wonder what the records are. Has to lopk better.

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       1. look..vs lopk

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       2. Slightly below .500 against both since 2020.

          40-45 against the Braves, with a 5-5 record in 2020 and then the Braves literally winning one single game more than us in each subsequent year.

          36-45 against the Mets, with most of the damage coming in 2022 (5-14). We’ve won the season series every other year (although we’re currently being swept this year).

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          1. Ok…thanks Dan.

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44. Might be Kemp time with Harper likely having a bruise on his elbow

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    1. yep, they should probably just release Harper so Kemp has a place to play. Why are they holding him down.

       Kemp is reaching Rizzotti status…

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       1. Ha! You know that’s not at all what I meant. Harper leaves the game, it’s likely bruised and he’s going on the DL since the team will likely be precautionary with this HBP. Great time to call up Kemp, play him at 3rd, Bohm at 1st. Could be a preview of sending Bryce back to the OF for the stretch run if Kemp shows hes ready. Will see today how bad the bruise is, but it could be a cup of coffee for Kemp or possibly Anthony

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          1. I’m not sure why people still want Harper back in the OF. He was terrible defensively back in 2021 when he was 28. He had declining range and people seem to forget those missed catches near the warning track. He’s not going to be better at age 32. Harper’s next stop should be DH not the OF.

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          2. Yea Tac, I know that’s not what you meant :). As for Kemp, he’ s not on the 40-man roster so they would have to add him and fill that last open spot.

             Also, if Harper would go to the DL, Sosa would take over playing 3b with Bohm moving to 1st.

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45. Bold move going with Romano. Not many other options though.

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    1. Romano was always going to be the best option because of his closing experience. The good thing is that Kerkering is looking like his normal self again.

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46. Why do you say stuff like that? You’re better than that.

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47. Phillies should take a shot at Scott Alexander. Just released from Colorado. Only will cost league minimum.

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48. On pace for 105 wins. Best starting rotation in baseball, eight-deep (Wheeler, Luzardo, Sanchez, Suarez, Nola, Walker, Abel, and Painter). No other team has a rotation like that.

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    1. Weather permitting…Painter I believe starts tonight at LHV.

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       1. And its free on the app to watch…

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49. Do we retaliate today?

    Braves were playing dirty even with the slide straight at Stott.

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    1. Yes….

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    2. Historically, the Phillies rarely retaliate. I think the A’s hit 3 guys and I don’t believe the pitchers retaliated.

       That said, Harper going off the field is a bad look. I think if Schwarber or Turner gets hit, you might see a pitch at the hip for Ozuna.

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    3. The two Braves that seem to get hit a lot….Acuna and Riley. And Acuna was involved in the past with the Mets pitching staff coming after him….as he thought.

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50. Escobar. 3-5 and SB

    .327 now. Time for promotion soon.

    Keaton Anthony with 17th Dbl… .321

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51. Last night’s game was probably one of the most satisfying games I’ve seen the Phillies play in a few years. Great starting pitching, stellar relief pitching and good defense (with the exception of the ball that fell in between Marsh, Castellanos, and Stott). Played on a Tuesday night in front of 40,000 people in just over 2 and a half hours. Baseball as it should be played

    The team plays the Brewers this weekend with Sanchez, Luzardo, and Suarez starting. Would be nice to have a righthander break it up a little bit to force the opponent to shake up their batting lineup to adjust somewhat. It wasn’t too long ago that the Phillies had one lefty and for awhile NO lefthanders in the starting rotation. I just love watching southpaws pitch.

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    1. The sweeper from a leftie looks crazy hard to hit.

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52. Marsh was only player who could have caught that

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    1. Yeah and he should have, but he was also saying something as he was slowing down, so I was wondering if maybe he couldn’t see it.

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       1. Agree, I don’t think Marsh plays center field very well. Its passable but, that’s about it.

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          1. Yeah, ideally Marsh would be in one of the corners. The most annoying thing (in my opinion) about Thomson’s insistence of never playing Stott, Marsh, and Kepler against LHP is that we basically never get to see Marsh and Rojas in the field at the same time anymore.

             It’s crazy how much ground they cover together. It entirely makes up for the fact that Castellanos has about as much range as your typical boulder.

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             1. I’d play Kepler in Right. marsh and Rojas platoon in center. And Slowfoot in left.

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53. My bad. Earlier I wrote that this coming weekend the Phils are starting 3 consecutive left handers. Not that any one of you noticed, or cared for that matter, but Walker is starting Friday’s game so they are breaking up the 3 straight lefties. Walker hasn’t pitched since May 21st so I guess the other 4 stay on schedule and Walker’s slot is skipped when there is an off day in the schedule.

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    1. Sanchez was suppose to pitch tonight…game postponed.

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       1. I thought it was Wheeler’s turn

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          1. I saw something with Sanchez’ name….but Wheeler last pitched in Cali so he is ready and should be the scheduled starter…..now it will be tomorrow. Also . Sanchez probably tomorrow vs Sale. in the nigthcap.

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54. A lot of rumors online that links the Phils to Cedric Mullins. Interesting name, but not sure that he moves the needle a ton. He’s on an expiring contract, so won’t cost us a huge prospect. Definitely an upgrade over Marsh.

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    1. “Definitely an upgrade”? Why do you think that? His defensive stats are down and his hitting numbers are down across the board the last few years. I’m not sure he’s better than Marsh.

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       1. 1. Marsh is a platoon player. Can’t hit lefty pitchers
          2. Marsh has no power or steals this year.

          Mullins isn’t an elite player by any means. But feels like an upgrade over Marsh to me.

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          1. I’m not sure about that. Not to say we can’t or shouldn’t upgrade over Marsh, but since he’s come back from injury Marsh has been substantially better than Mullins. To the tune of .327/.389/.429.

             As you said the power hasn’t returned (yet), but the speed is still there, too. His SBs mostly seem to be suffering from the “don’t steal with a lefty up” strategy that we apparently are employing this year.

             And while there’s definitely some luck there for Marsh recently, he’s hitting the ball harder and his xwOBA over is last 50 PAs (since coming back) is about 50 points higher than Mullins in the same time frame. Basically every tracking stat we have, Marsh is just slightly better. Pretty much the only thing in Mullins’ favor is that he has a reverse platoon split this year (although not for power).

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    2. I expect Mullins to be moved at the deadline as he3 doesn’t fit the remodeling to be done in Baltimore. He’s another left-handed bat while the Phils could use a strong right-handed bat to protect Schwarber. To me you only trade for Mullins if you can move Marsh in the deal AND if you’re convinced Crawford needs a fill season in AAA. Mullins is Apure rental with his best ball playing behind him.

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       1. Maybe a rental. But Kepler is a FA after the season too. So maybe you like him and re-sign him.

          Good point on him hitting lefty. Agreed that Marsh has to go back in deal.

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55. Blueclaws lost 10 — 7 tonight. Appears they are better than the Phils at K’ing they are the King of K! 19 tonight …… also a lot of hit batters on both sides ….. bean ball battle, … anyone know?

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56. Keith Law’s mid season top 50
    5. Painter (top pitcher)
    9. Miller
    40. Escobar
    42. Crawford

    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6385849/2025/05/29/mlb-top-50-prospects-2025-roman-anthony/?source=user_shared_article Ranking MLB top 50 prospects after 2 months: Roman Anthony remains No. 1

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    1. Re: Painter, says he has a great fastball and a 70 grade curve. Says slider is still a work in progress but all of the ingredients to be a #1

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    2. Re: Miller says only issue is K rate but that has been more because of takes than swing and misses. So not concerned for now.

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       1. It’s very interesting that, in a year where, from a statistical standpoint, Miller has appeared to struggle in a hitter’s league, he has done nothing but continue to climb these lists. I’m not saying they’re wrong, but there has to be a lot about him that shows up in the field or in the batter’s box that is not entirely translating to the stat sheet yet. I’m encouraged but a little puzzled by this. Not at all puzzled by Escobar – I think he’s a star in the making.

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    3. Re Escobar, noted “just a 23% whiff rate…and a 47% hard hit rate.” He loves the hit tool and says 8 homers for a 20yo in FSL is impressive power.

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    4. Re Crawford, “It’s time for Crawford to rework that swing; he’s doing everything else right, showing elite speed, putting the ball in play a ton, playing plus defense in center, but he continues to put the ball on the ground way too often. It’s entirely mechanical, and a player this athletic with this kind of hand speed should be able to make the needed changes. He’s still productive, hitting .328/.395/.437, but I have seen the above-average to plus raw power in there in BP and if he gets that into games he’s a star.”

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       1. I referenced an interview JC did with an Inquirer writer a few weeks back. In short JC was asked the question about groundballs and he said (paraphrase) I’m comfortable with my swing and I am not changing it.

          Same type of interview with Benson of Cincy. Harold Reynolds had noted it a few nights back as well. They tried messing with his swing and he regressed in a big way. He finally said I’m going back to what got me here and he’s been on a tear.

          Not sure why they feel compelled to mess with swings that are producing results.

          Not just here you see it quite often around the league. High Draft picks that are very productive in the minors and then they come up and have some initial success and then they go in the tank.

          Not sure its a mechanical issue as much as it is they don’t understand how they are being attacked.

          Dylan Crews is another one. Not that anyone has messed with his swing, I don’t know. But he’s been god awful in the MLB. Nats also couldn’t transition Carter Kieboom into a successful MLBer after a stellar MiLB career.

          More of what I see is not bad swing mechanics as much as confusion or ill approaches or swing choices.

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          1. Watched Crews play at LSU in his junior year……seemed ready for sure…he does have 10HRs in 70 or so MLB games….so the power is there. Just way to much swing and miss. Lately he has been swinging the bat better….as long as it is not against the Phillies.

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       2. Crawford is a very unique player. In terms of his ability to get the bat on the ball, he’s special. He can hit almost anything. In that respect, he reminds me a little of Ichiro – he makes contact no matter where the ball is pitched even though it sometimes looks awkward and he doesn’t always drive the ball. As far as changing his swing – they need to be careful. I am not saying it’s impossible, but remedy may be worse than the problem. Honestly, I have no idea how he will look as a major league hitter now, or 5 years into the future, except to say that his raw abilities will probably carry him to a great extent. Otherwise, I have no clue.

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          1. This was Laws response to a question about changing his swing to produce fewer ground balls.

             “Yes, that is always a concern and a completely valid point to bring up. I’m taking the upside view, that he could be a more complete player if he can get to the power, but your point about the downside risk is a good one.”

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          2. He is actually pretty high on Crawford overall. Said he would be a star if he can tap into the power more.

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57. @v1again, 4 in the Top 50 is crazy. Any team with more than that?

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    1. If Eduardo Tait got a huge signing bonus, he would be very close to top 50. If Tait was on the Padres, he would be at high-A already.

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58. I’ve seen some mocks where Bremner might be around at the Phillies pick. Love a RHP with a great CU

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59. Ben Davis on WIP this morning thinks that the Phillies will trade Ranger. It makes no sense.

    They’d have to find a team in the playoff hunt who wants Ranger and has the extra bats to off load to get him.

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    1. And will be an AL team that they will concentrate their efforts to…..NOT the Dodgers. Since Ranger is a rental….they may only get a prospect or a team with that extra bat. Perhaps Detroit, Astros or Seattle could be the destination.

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       1. I actually like KC as a pretty good fit…

          They have some minors pitching depth they could part with.

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    2. Agreed.

       Ranger’s market will be limited to playoff contenders because he is a pending FA and why would the Phillies want to help a potential competitor for a playoff spot in the NL. That limits the deal to an AL team only with available relievers.

       Just don’t see why the Phillies would want to give up one of their biggest advantages, the depth they have in their rotation.

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       1. The Phillies will have to make a hard decision when Painter is ready. And it’s looking like Ranger will be the odd man out of the rotation. Whether he heads to the bullpen or gets traded, nobody knows.

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    3. Listen, I love Ranger and have been one of his biggest fans here. My view is the Phillies can sign Ranger or Luzardo long term, but not both. If they’ve already decided they won’t sign Ranger and Ranger continues to pitch like a 1 or a 2, he will command a very large price, even as a rental. Great players have been traded for rentals – Zack Wheeler, Pete Crow-Armstrong, John Smoltz, and others. My hope is the Phillies could trade him for a really good young hitter in the high minors or who has not hit his stride in the big leagues. The Phillies need hitting. Ranger is a very attractive commodity to a contending team. And if they don’t trade him, I’m fine with that too as I think there may be a market for Walker and I’d be eager to trade him now that he’s started hot.

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    4. Hard to evaluate Davis’ observation in a vacuum. My preference would be to move Taijuan for prospects and retain Ranger for team competitiveness.

       But Walker is a hard sell unless he has some more good starts. Nola’s imminent return makes that problematic. Chance of Walker being moved by the deadline — I’d put it at 20 %.

       There’s a better chance of Ranger being moved, particularly if Walker stays. With Painter coming up at some point, the Phils can lard their bullpen only so much with re-purposed starters. They’d have 7 not even including Abel.

       I’m interested in how Keith Law sees Abel and Kemp, not out of homer bias but there may be some of that. Escobar came out of nowhere based on performance. Kemp and Abel have been performing at the highest level, at the highest minor league level. Painter has the pedigree but his performance reflects that he’s been bubble wrapped. Miller appears to have dug out from a slow start. But of the Phils’ top prospects, Miller seems least deserving of an early promotion. I’m not a student of Keith Law so I’m curious how he factors growth potential vs. performance on the field.

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       1. Can tell you Laws comments on Both Kemp and Abel from responses to questions from the chats in his articles.

          For Abel, his issue is specifically that he is still walking too many hitters per 9.

          for Kemp, that he struggles to hit good breaking pitches.

          He’s also stated multiple times that he’s much more potential over performance.

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60. I would be ok with trading Ranger. This is definitely an area of strength and realistically, we’re looking at getting a pick after the 4th round when he leaves. Let’s hope he continues to kick butt until the deadline.

    Wheeler-Luzardo-Sanchez-Nola-Painter-Abel-Walker

    We still have some good arms for the second half and postseason run.

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61. Phillies have play 54 games or 1/3 of the season.

    Hitters projections;

    B. Stott 78 R 15 2B 12 HR 72 RBI 33 S

    T.hTurner 111 R 195 H 15 HR 69 RBI 42 S

    B. Harper 90 R 39 2B 24 HR 99 RBI 99 BB

    Schwarber 123 R 15 2B 54 HR 120 RBI 126 BB

    Castellanos 72 R 39 2B 12 HR 87 RBI 39 BB

    M. Kepler 66 R 36 2B 18 HR 57 RBI 57 BB

    A. Bohm. 69 R 24 2B 12 HR 60 RBI 27 BB

    Realmuto 54 R 24 2B 15 HR 60 RBI 54 BB

    Pitchers projections;

    Wheeler 18-3 REC 211 IP 42 BB 264 SO .88 WHIP

    Luzardo 15-0 REC 231 IP 57 BB 231 SO 1.18 WHIP

    Sanchez 12-3 REC 195 IP 60 BB 195 SO 1.26 WHIP

    Suarez 12-0 REC 90 IP 30 BB 93 SO 1.19 WHIP

    Walker 6-9 REC 118 IP 48 BB 99 SO 1.30 WHIP

    Nola 3-21 REC 150 IP 48 BB 156 SO 1.51 WHIP

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    1. Not surprisingly – wow – Schwarber – amazing – same with the starters.

       Bryce Harper is like baseball pizza – even when we think he’s been kinda bad (for him, anyway), he’s still very good and, by the way, so is Stott. Of all the guys who I think we should probably move, to me, Stott is not one of them. He’s already very good and I think his best years are yet to come.

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       1. And the interesting thing is, unless he somehow takes his game to yet another level, Schwarber isn’t winning the MVP this year, even if he puts up those numbers – Freeman or Ohtani most likely will.

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62. I don’t understand why people say we won’t get much for Ranger bc he’s a rental. How much would we have to pay if we needed a top starting pitcher for a pennant run ? What prospects would we have to give up ? A lot of people on this site would start with Crawford or Miller. Why can’t we get some other team’s top 3 or 4 prospect for him ?

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    1. I agree, Ranger would immediately be one of the top pitchers available.

       I would trade Ranger to the Mariners. They have a boatload of guys in the top 100 and a trade deal should be easily done.

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       1. Id be good with that, but I was under the impression they didn’t need SP. I was looking at the Tigers, and they don’t need any either.

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          1. The Mariners can easily replace Miller or Hancock in their rotation.

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    2. Conceivably you might. I would look to value quality over quantity though and it will be a chance for our internal scouting to prove their metal.

       Hopefully its not the same people that thought O’Hoppe for Marsh was good value.

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    3. We would also be limited in the teams we trade.

       • Would only trade with an AL team
       • Would want back a current AA+ / Top 10 Catcher PLUS Top 20 Pitcher

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    4. I think what is meant by……’we won’t get much’…it may only be one current player, or one prospect. The degree of quality of that player/prospect on the other hand should be high.

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63. JMills – I think you may be a little off on IP for Luzardo. It should be 201. That might be a stretch for him. With his injury history, I don’t see the Phillies wanting him to pitch even that many innings.

    I thought I saw an article about Suarez saying he wants to stay in Philly and would take a “hometown discount”. I might be totally wrong. I saw Suarez pitch in Norwich CT with Williamsport.

    It was short season and Suarez’ first time in the states. He pitched three innings and was followed by Cole Irvin for 3 innings. I’ve always been a big fan of Suarez and would like to see him stay.

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    1. As much as we all like Ranger, it’s a business and he knows it too when he hired Scott Boras as his agent. Not only that, the Phillies have 2 options to replace him: Painter and Abel. This is Ranger’s last year in Philadelphia.

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64. But how often does a team act as a seller at the deadline then turn around and make a separate trade or trades as a buyer? Teams never do this really. They take their prospects and young mlb guys and trade for known commodities that can boost them to the playoffs.

    It just seems to me a more difficult task make these corresponding trades. Just my thoughts.

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65. Another thing to consider is moving Ranger to the BP. He won’t like it but if that’s what’s best for the team, it should be done. He’s probably better than most of the relief pitchers we can trade (expensively) for.

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66. When you resigned Nola & traded for Luzardo … you openly admitted Ranger as no longer part of the plan. Nola is untradeable, so Ranger is out. He’s going to get paid too. I’m trading Ranger to keep Abel long term. Painter & Abel are both low cost productive type arms that are needed when you got players making 42.5 mil a year on your team. It’s an unpopular move that sustains the window.

    Trade Ranger for a catching prospect is my preference, promote from within to strengthen the BP while also trading fringe prospects (Ricones jr-esque) for a 7thinning- 8th inning BP arm. Royals have a few Catching prospects. CLE’s Cooper Ingle doesn’t look too bad. I’d be targeting the AL Cenrtal for a trade partner.

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    1. Now we’re talking. I wasn’t understanding the ideas above of trade ranger for a prospect. Why would we do that unless there was another move. This team needs to try to win a WS and while he’s a good trade chip, you don’t just trade him and do nothing else. Trade him to keep the window open by acquiring another prospect, fine. But who else from our system are you trading for the bullpen arm or RH OF bat? Because you need to one or both of those trades to try to win a WS this year. If you were going to trade for a bullpen arm, why not just keep Ranger and have him do that. Or make one of your prospect starters a bullpen guy for the second half/playoffs? Commenters above hit on this, but in a vacuum trading Ranger for another team’s prospect in the 3-4 range sounds nice, but makes no sense if that’s the only move. If they want to do it, they need to cash in on him and have other sensible moves that coincide.

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    2. The Dodgers would probably give up catcher Dalton Rushing for Ranger…but in the world would the Phillies trade Ranger to the Dodgers. It is like cutting your own throat if they run into each other come October.

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       1. but…why….

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          1. So here is my train of thought. Team has ST & LT needs. I trade light again deadline for BP pieces to help the team this year.

             I trade Ranger for a C prospect over Abel for a better BP piece to help this year. Replacing the team’s all time best catcher is going to tough, this is the best path to do so imo. At minumum, if Realmuto is resigned, it wont be a crazy $$$ or years contract. It also then makes Tait a trade chip. In a way, you gain a trade chip for one that is expiring. You also keep Abel. So instead of having Ranger go for a draft pick, you get Rushing, keep Abel, and move Tait off the no trade list as a chip for 2026 and beyond.

             Of course if you go for it, and they win it this year, who cares. That said, im not feeling it yet… as if this is an all in year. More of a retool year the way i see it.

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67. Painter so far today vs a lineup with more talent than at least 5 ML line ups
    4IP 2H(both doubles to Cowser) 0 R 1 BB 5 Ks 58 pitches

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    1. That Norfolk lineup has 2 rehabbing players: Cowser and Westburg. Add Basallo and Mayo (who I think needs a change of scenery) and that lineup is one of the better ones at AAA.

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68. What if we traded Ranger for something good, then flip that something good to the Brewers for their Catcher, Contreras? He would be controllable for this season plus two more. Contreras can rotate between DH and C, which would sometimes bump Schwarber to LF, which SHOULD then bump Kepler to RF, and Castellanos would see more time on the bench.

    There would be more platoons than usual. But it would also help with some load management. JT would get more off-days, and Contreras (in a pinch) could play some 1B. It’s ok to give guys rest.

    We would then have a younger, quality C for the next 3 post-season runs and perhaps letting Schwarber go would be more palatable, especially if we look to beef up our OF.

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    1. Why would the Brewers, who are trying to compete, trade a 27 year-old catcher who has generated 1.6 WAR so far this season? Doesn’t sound too likely to me.

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    2. William Contreras is a really good player. He’s under control for 2 more years but his 2026 salary will likely be $12M which could be a lot for the Brewers. If the Brewers are trading Contreras, they are looking to rebuild and they would want a lot for Contreras. I think Escobar would have to be in the deal.

       Do you really want Schwarber in LF? He’s perfectly fine at DH, let him be. And there’s been zero indication that Castellanos will be playing less or moving off RF, so forget about that happening. This isn’t fantasy baseball.

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       1. The general idea is a little far-fetched, I know. Even though I can’t see the Brewers making the playoffs.

          In regards to Castellanos, at some point, somebody has to realize that this guy just isn’t good at baseball. At best, he’s a DH who swings at every slider every time. My logic was to basically flip corner outfielders, and on a part-time basis.

          And I will dispute that every single person that proposes a trade or an idea is engaging in their own form of “fantasy” baseball.

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          1. I don’t have a problem with trade suggestions within reason. Trading for William Contreras seems unlikely but still possible if the Brewers throw in the towel and the Phillies are willing to part with somebody big like Escobar.

             Saying that I’m going to move Harper to RF, Casty will sit, Turner to LF, that’s fantasy baseball. Topper has never made that many moves in season, and he’s given zero indication to do so. The only way Topper sits Casty is if he goes into the tank offensively, and he hasn’t done that yet.

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             1. Trade Escobar and in about 10 years, he’ll replace Ryne Sandberg in the “I can’t believe the Phillies actually traded . . . ” stories. I think Escobar is their best position prospect – and perhaps by far. If he hits at JS the way he has at Clearwater he’ll be virtually untouchable from my perspective. He’s a freaking Jose Ramirez clone.

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                1. I’ve never seen Escobar play — just the videos — but I think you ‘re spot on. Teams are not clamoring for Escobar — let’s keep him.

                   I wonder what a package of Suarez and Marsh brings back in the way of prospects, maybe one of whom gets flipped for BP help.

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69. Smith-Shawver left with an injury? He didn’t make it out of the 3rd inning.

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    1. Yeah, I think Stott hit a liner off his right calf …. he tried to stay in for a couple batters, but took him out.

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       1. Reports are he felt a “pop” in his elbow pitching to Turner. Braves immediately placed him on the IL. Doesn’t sound good if you’re Atlanta.

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          1. Yeah, I just read that in the Athletic. He got a double whammy today for sure. Braves sure having the injuries this year and last!

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70. hey guys help me out here. I have followed the Phillies since the 1960s and never remember them having four prospects ranked in the top 50 for major league baseball. Is anyone aware that we’ve ever had that?

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    1. Nice topic to research…but Im going to say, it’s the 1st time without even looking. A couple things though. 4 in the top 50 for Keith Law’s list, not the MLB top 100 list. Either way, nice to have so many on the list. As for the Top 100 MLB, never in the top 50. 2016-2018 seems to the the best era for having names on the list. 7 being the top # of players, along with 5 & 6 players represented throught the years. I thought going back to the “golden era” would yield more but nope.. 4. There is a typo I believe that shows the Phillies with 8 players on the top 100. I don’t remember a Jorge Lopez but it does have PHI next to his name. In any regards, I think this is easily the best era of propsects for PHI since 2005.

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       1. thanks Tac really appreciate it!👍. Also agree that this is really a reset year between our bullpen and the holes in the lineup. I don’t see it happening and I certainly hope they do not sell the farm at the trade deadline better days ahead.

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71. Of course Marchan a the game of his life as I’m discussing trading for a catching prospect … Damn marchan…stop reading the comment section and get your head in the game!

    That’s a dagger for the Braves NL East hopes. 9.5 gm lead should be enough to hold them off. It’s between the Phils & Mets now

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72. Zack Wheeler will have to go deep tonight since Kerkering, Strahm, Romano won’t be available. Who’s the closer for tonight? Banks or Hernandez?

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73. How the heck does anyone send Romano out to pitch ever again?

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74. DD gave this guy 10M? Finnegan cost 6M. Disaster

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75. It’s a crime Marchan does not play more – it’s bad for him and it’s bad for the Phillies and I’ll argue that it’s even bad for Realmuto (who would probably play better on more rest). Marchan is a very fine young catcher with outstanding defensive skills, good plate discipline and a perfectly good hit tool. The smart play is to let him play next year, but I doubt that happens.

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    1. In saying that I do understand that they view Realmuto to be a keeper of their best asset – the starting rotation – and that has some value. I just think Marchan is very competent to do that job and I would expect his offense to grow.

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    2. I saw an interview with JT last week in which he talked about the importance of Marchan playing more, and, duh, the only way that happens is if he tells the manager to do that and admit he needs more time off. So he’s either not smart outside of calling games or he’s being more than a bit disingenuous.

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76. Agree with catch22. I’ve been harping that Marchan needs to play more to get him into a rhythm. He is all of what catch22 writes. If they are going to continue to send Realmuto out there the rest of this year and maybe the next two years, they might as well trade Marchan and bring Stubbs back up.

    Teams looking for a good fairly young catcher will probably give up a good reliever to get him. Which brings me to if Strahm has lost it and Kerkering is no longer lights out and Romano continues to struggle, it’s going to be a long rest of the year.

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    1. Marchan has all the tools…good to plus.. of a very good back-up catcher. His lifetime slash in the minors is average …262/.337/.676….and the way it shapes up he probably will not be any better in the majors. Just does not work out that way.

       Agree…..perhaps a trade would benefit the team and also Marchan. Team may have to look for the Austins of the world…Hedges or Nola…. to back up JTR for the next few years.

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       1. I disagree. I think he has the tools to be a starting catcher. He’s probably close to a 2 WAR defensive player and his offense would be average. That’s a starting catcher and he would be cheap. He carries some risk with injury history for sure and some risk on offense. I don’t think they are going to take a chance on him but if they did, they could save a lot of money and he would be just fine and would not be any more or less valuable than JT. My guess is they spend too much money re-signing JT to a 2 year deal worth $25-30 million that will seriously overpay him, to the detriment of the rest of the team (because it will limit the money they can use for other needs). I hope that doesn’t happen, but suspect it will.

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    2. It’s almost like the Phillies don’t have the best record in the league. The bitching and moaning o here is getting pathetic.

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77. Painter 5 innings 5 Hs 2 Rs 2 ER 1BB 5 Ks 81 — 49

    Kemp 2 — 4 2B

    Kennedy 3 — 3 1 BB

    Second game Ironpigs shutout. Crawford 1 — 1 2 BBs

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78. Regarding the draft Jim Callis has us taking Luke Stevenson, college catcher from North Carolina.

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    1. i saw Kiley Mcdaniel had an Indiana HS RHP named Mathew Fisher

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    2. Stevenson is ranked 20th on MLB.com……if he falls to the Phillies @ 26 then they will probably do it…drafting for need and also best avail player.

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       1. Kiley has him ranked 40 and mentioned other HS pitchers. Seems Phils like they like stevenson most. It does seem like a good pick in my opinion

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79. https://x.com/Mitch_Rupert/status/1928185471441494213

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80. Marchan has a proven track record of never coming close to playing a full season, JTR has a reputation on the opposite end of that equation. The Phillies prize the defensive responsibilities of the C position with greater importance than the hitting side. I agree it would benefit both players if JTR played 1 less game a week and RM played twice. But there has been 1 absolute fact in the entire history of Marchan’s professional career, that he will get hurt and miss multipole weeks.

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81. Ryan Degges due for a promotion to Jersey Shore soon. 33 IP at Clearwater, he’s given up 18 hits and has a 0.81 ERA. Still walks too many — 5.1 BB per 9 IP. But the Phillies have had some success improving strike-throwing (which is not easy to do), e.g., Klassen, and that number for Degges is a significant improvement, as he walked 7.0 per 9 IP at UNC Charlotte last year.

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82. I’m team Marchan all the way and have always thought he can be a MLB starter. The JT situation stinks bc hes going to command more money solely because “Hes JT Realmuto” and while he is amazing at defense and calling games, that bat is putrid and not going to get any better. Don’t get me wrong, hes a good catcher, but hes going to get overpaid because of his pedigree when really going forward hes a defense first guy and wont provide the offensive juice that made him the “BCIB” for so long

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    1. Agree completely. Every time I hear that BCIB nonsense I want to scream – that ship sailed years ago.

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83. Griff McGarry looked great in a rehab stint last night. Man, I know its the longshot of all longshots but if he really is finding some sort of command he could be a pen piece in the 2h of the season. Id honestly rather watch him pitch in the majors today than ever have to watch Joe Ross again

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    1. McGarry was sitting 95-97, which is better than he’s been in the last year or two. For him, it’s all about control, because his pitches have great movement. If he can throw consistent strikes, he can be effective. I’d like to see him do it against AAA hitters, but it’s pretty much a no lose scenario seeing if he can do it.

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84. This discussion happens every year, but now might be the time. Trout’s value is at its lowest level ever. I don’t think that it would cost us that much at all.

    https://thelibertyline.com/2025/05/30/mike-trout-activated-phillies/

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    1. Love Trout but honestly, I don’t think he ever plays a full season again. He’s always….always injured. Always.

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    2. He’s a liability now (hitting .179, .220 last year), so it better not cost anything other than a lottery ticket or two. In fact, if you did that, you might want some salary relief. I have zero idea if he’s in a free fall from which he cannot recover. It’s a very expensive and risky gamble, but if he could be 80 percent of what he once was, he’s exactly what they would need. Gambles don’t get much bigger than this one.

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       1. Trout is still owed 5/185!!! He’s had 1 monster year out of his last 5. He’s pretty much a DH now. The Angels would have to eat half that contract to get teams interested.

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          1. seems like a lot.. but would you want Schwarber at 5 years 150, with no real Defense, or Trout 5/185 with some paid down, with potential to play the field?

             Harper, Trout, Schwarber, Turner, Realmuto …. Basically Team USA

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             1. But you only get about 80-100 games of Trout a year. No thanks. Give me Schwarber. The first 3 yrs of that contract will be worth it. Last yr sunken cost. 4th yr no one knows.

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    3. hes got 5.5 years left I believe at 37mil annual hit. I’d need 80-100mil in salary relief, that offsets the injury risk. I’ll pay 20mil a year for the potential he can add in the postseason.

       Now… whats it going to take prospect wise? Abel, Rincones,and McGowen? How much more to add O’Hoppe in the deal? Thats where it gets a bit intriguing … Im sure the Angels don’t want to give him up… but what if it’s Abel, Tait, Rincones, and McGowen or someone else?

       Tough call… I’d do it. Just because Im tired of talking about it! The issue is you kind of already have Trout on your team.. in Schwarber. Schwarber, Trout,and Harper basically all need time at DH. If you can make that work, do it.

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       1. Ok, how about Abel, Tait and Marsh for Trout and O’Hoppe and the Angels pay 12 million each year of Trout’s salary

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    4. That article lost me when I guess I was supposed to get excited about a lineup with Castellanos batting cleanup!

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    5. I agree with 1 point in the article: “Baseball is better when Mike Trout is healthy.” Otherwise, he’s the wrong guy at the wrong price for the wrong team at the wrong time.

       Others here are far better qualified than I to squelch good, bad and indifferent personnel moves but, within my limitations, I see nothing but sentimentality driving the ‘Trout to Phillies’ train.

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       1. Every player has risk.

          Some players have talent risk, eg Rojas’s and Marsh’s hitting. Or Castellanos’s defense.

          Some players have injury risk like Trout.

          Some players have both.

          But it is easier to bet on a talented player staying healthy than a healthy player with limited talent somehow becoming good.

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85. Marchan doesn’t hit the ball hard — his average EV in his MLB career is 85.2, significantly below league average (88.3). And it’s 85.9 this year. And the hardest ball he has ever hit in the majors was 104 mph. He has a slow bat — his average bat speed this year is 65.9 mph, compared to the MLB average of 71.6 mph.

    Realmuto, OTOH, is averaging 90.6 mph EV this year. Is Realmuto declining with the bat — yes, his strikeout rate is up this year — but I don’t see Marchan as a first-division regular. Not that WAR is everything, but it’s a useful shorthand, and Realmuto was worth 3.5 and 3.o WAR the last two years. I’d bet that Marchan never has a season at that level.

    Of course, Marchan hasn’t played much in MLB, so maybe that’s the problem. Well, look at his performance in AAA. 876 career plate appearances in AAA and he has slashed .238/.328/.328 for an OPS of .656. And last year in AAA it was .229/.340/.297 for an OPS of .637. In fact, his entire minor league career, with 1774 plate appearances across all levels, has produced a .262/.337/.340 line, for an OPS of .676.

    Marchan has an excellent pop time. His defense is solid. He’s 26 years old. Seems to me like a decent backup catcher who is cheap. But I just don’t see a first division regular.

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86. Old heads on here might remember the pandemonium when Jon Singleton broke out as an 18-year-old in Lakewood in 2010. Worth pointing out that Escobar, while older, is putting up even better numbers at a more premium position so far:

    Singleton .290/.393/.479 13.8/16.4 K/BB 18 yo

    Escobar .329/.432/.521 12.1/16.6 K/BB 20 yo

    Really hoping Dombrowski holds onto this guy at the deadline …

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    1. I thought Singleton was gonna be legit.

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       1. The devil is in the weeds…or just weed.

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87. All the talk about Hoskins has me debating this:

    I think Hoskins will be more sought after than people think as the deadline draws near. Teams like Boston could be interested.

    It would really bother me if we traded a player like Abel for Hoskins and we didn’t end up winning it all. I think that would sting.

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    1. Dave D may lean reliever first, RHB second. And may initially look at LH relievers…Strahm and Banks will need to step it up and maintain for the next two months.

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88. https://www.si.com/mlb/phillies/news/phillies-acquire-high-strikeout-left-handed-reliever-josh-walker-in-trade

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89. Comments have become too unwieldy. Sorry, I started the new discussion but took a break to go to the Complex to watch Pacheco pitch.

    New discussion at Phillies Discussion 5/30/2025 | Phuture Phillies

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