168 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion 5/19/2025”

1. Good to read from u Jim.

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2. So someone asked about Ottenbreit in the last thread. I guessed that they may have just moved his start back because of the weather, and just wanted to confirm that he did pitch yesterday. So good news on that front.

   On a big club note, are we still pretending Casty is okay at defense? Because he just let a guy get to second on a bloop single, and then that guy scored because he played a (should be) flyout on a hop.

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   1. I guess I wasn’t the only one that was angry at that Casty play. I’ve said this many times, Castellanos is a DH playing RF. He’s been negative dWar every year of his career, which I think is hard to do.

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3. Any educated guesses as to when Tait and Escobar will be promoted?

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   1. Maybe they will let them play in their leagues all-star game first, since they will be selected I am sure. Then again, in the past they have promoted guys in June prior to July all-star games.

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      1. Tait is settling in as an 18 year-old and there is absolutely no reason to rush him as he gets used to full season baseball – I think his promotion will be late in the season. I expect Escobar to spend at least half the season with JS and outside chance of a cup of coffee with Reading. I think they really want to know if they have a future star in the wings. And they might.

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         1. After watching JT decline offensively this season (and his ABs yesterday were awful), I wouldn’t mind the Phillies push Tait a little bit…

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            1. He’s 18 – and he’s very far from being JT’s replacement – 3 years under a best case scenario. Rushing him won’t help anything.

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   2. Brought to my attention…..I was informed, there are no longer minor league all-star games.

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      1. Romus. Sometimes things just sneak up on us now. LOL I asked this question. Is there a limit to how many times using Abel as an example he can be brought up and sent down during the season? I think this season counts only as one of his options, but I could be wrong there. Thanks.

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         1. There’s a limit of five times they can be optioned per year. If you do it more than that they need to be outrighted instead.

            But this would have counted as one of his option years even if he hadn’t been called up because he’s on the 40-man.

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            1. Thanks Dan. I think I had heard there was a limit but could not remember. I did not know the 40-man counted as an option. That is good to know. You guys are so well informed on these things.

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4. Welcome back Jim, great post with new insight on Abel. I have to say I was very impressed with his stuff during this outing, but to your point, for this kid to endure what he did last year and come out and do what he’s done this year, has to say something huge about his mental toughness now and in the future.

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5. Welcome back Jim.

   In a way Mick is a year younger than his league age in my eyes. Many a 2/3 starter types and even some 1’s didn’t start out that way. They often grow into those pitchers. Somewhere around the ages of 25/26 and sometimes a little older.

   Which means Mick has time.

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   1. DMAR…agreed. The best usually evolve into those dominant roles….some faster than others.

      BTW…….two Micks with Philly ties last two consecutive games…..Mick Abel on Sunday, and Mickey Moniak last night making the final out.

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   2. Mick does have time because he’s only 23, and I don’t have a problem if he spends the entire year at Lehigh. The issue is 2026. If he’s ready by the end of the season, there’s nothing for him to prove in the minors so putting him back to Lehigh is a disservice to him. Ideally, he should have a rotation spot for him in ST.

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6. It is pretty cool that our organization has this kind of starting pitching depth. Gotta imagine that this deadline is going to be action packed for us. I don’t think the veterans on this team are going to be okay with another deadline like last years. There’s going to have to be a splash move.

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   1. A splash move? Does a pen arm mean a splash move? Seems that may be it. There are few, if any, positions left to be replaced….Max Kepler in LF would be the only one I could see at this point.

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   2. Pundits seem unified in the belief that the Phils should not panic with the loss of Alvarado and that now is not a good time to “overpay” in a trade. (I personally think that there is a good chance today will offer good weather so long as the sun continues to shine). When is it a good time to “overpay”?

      Honing in a little, the Phils have their current and near term needs for the starting rotation well in hand. I’d put any prospect not named Painter or Abel on a list of availables if the Phils shop for a late inning reliever before August.

      Other prospects I’d hold onto are Miller, Crawford, Escobar, Tait and Kemp. People will debate whether they have the potential to be blue chippers. By the end of this season, I think we’ll know the answer for each. By holding back some prospects, there’s a tier of relievers that will be unavailable. I’d work on adding from the next tier.

      To me, the Phils could use a spark from any source. I think Abel provided that to the rotation. I’d love a spark added to the batting order; and hoped maybe Marchan could provide it. So far, no.

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      1. I agree, there’s no need to panic here. Looks like the Phillies are giving Carlos Hernandez a long look to see if he’s part of the solution. Also, as people on this board have been wanting for a while, Max Lazar has been called up. And Seth Johnson is still finding his way as a reliever at Lehigh. The Phillies have some internal options.

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   3. Starting Pitching Depth is fleeting just ask the Dodgers LOL

      But you make a good point. I just hope they don’t do anything dumb again for RP.

      Let it ride or use your internal pieces to sure it up.

      I still remain open to trading some guys off the 26 man I am not as open to trading many prospects though.

      I remain anchored to the fact that Stott is the only younger player likely to extend. Bohm and Marsh probably not, therefore whatever their maximum value is for controllable talent I’d consider cashing it in.

      If not in season then in the off season.

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      1. As much as we like to think that we know our team (and prospects), the other teams have full time scouts that know our team also. So if the Phillies want to get rid of Bohm and Marsh, the other teams know their limitations. This means that their value may not be as high as you think it will be. The Phillies might get some lotto tickets or maybe an expensive reliever, but that’s about it.

         Bryson Stott has 2 more years of arbitration left, and his agent is Scott Boras. Aside from a very good 2023 season (4.3 WAR), he’s been mostly just starter level. Unless he ramps up his production, he will likely not get a second contract with the Phillies.

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         1. A thing we know from the Christian Pache experience is that Topper needs 2 guys who can field CF even if they offer little offensively. Marsh’ spot seems secure during this season unless Crawford makes a big push.

            CF should be wide open for Crawford in 2026. If the Phils can’t envision him in that role, they’ll have to make an off-season move. They shouldn’t run it back next year with Rojas and Marsh. Rojas can be a 4th outfielder. It’s ‘do or die’ time now for Marsh. Being a locker room guy wasn’t enough to keep Stubbs on the 26 man, and it won’t be enough for Marsh if he remains a high strike out, middle average, low power performer. Not a great time for Philly fans to buy Marsh paraphernalia.

            As the team on the field ages, the Phils have to get more production from their OF.

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7. I was disappointed we didn’t get s chance to see Lazar yesterday, it was a good situation, they went with Banks.

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   1. I was surprised he didn’t go to Lazar once we had a comfortable lead. Perhaps he didn’t join the team until pretty late so Topper wanted to give him an extra day to get settled.

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8. Miller’s last 7 day numbers look fantastic 353/450/1.038 OPS. Even his May numbers for a 20 y/o about to turn 21 in AA are solid 275/351/782 OPS.

   K rate is a little high but his 11% BB rate is a very acceptable number.

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9. Iron Pig report. I was @ today’s game, and Kemp continues to impress. He hit a HR, a single for an RBI, had 2 walks and a SB. I was really watching the relief pitchers to see if there was anything there. Except for Schulfer, there were too many BB’s. I was hoping to see fireballing Zuniga . The Pigs have a GOOD team. I also like the stadium.

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10. Forgot to mention…Kemp played 2B and made 2 very good plays.

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    1. Perhaps Kemp will be showcased and used in a trade. A few years back they did it with Dunn to get Mendez and Moore…all minor leaguers however. May be there is a Triple A reliever in an org that they may want and see if Kemp would be a good exchange.

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       1. They definitely sold high on Dunn but I don’t think Mendez or Moore are MLB caliber players.

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       2. Kemp for a AAA reliever would be a travesty

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    2. At a certain point you can’t waste that kind of production in AAA. You have to find out if it translates to the MLB.

       I’d be playing him everyday in LF because that is where they really could use his Right Handed Bat. I’ve likely seen worse experiments out there.

       And if its that bad in LF well then you have 2 choices. Move BH to LF and Kemp to 1B (he’s a little short but) or yeah you have to see what his trade value is.

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11. Really hoping the same thing as you guys, that they dont make a “Prospect Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson” type deal just to get another reliever. I always say stuff like this and get the “prospects dont usually work out” rebuttal, and its fair; when all was said and done, they hardly lost anything in the packages in the deals for all the guys they got in the late 2000s and early 2010s. But I still am not a fan of potentially losing a guy like Abel because the org didnt spend a few more million over the offseason.

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12. I think the best thing DD can do right now is be patient and not make any trades, as there are several things that we need to find out as best we can prior to making trades, such as:

    1. We should know a lot more 60 days from now how much or little we can depend on Nola to be Nola in October.
    2. We should have a better idea if Seth Johnson or Lazar or Carlos Hernandez can be counted on to pitch meaningful October innings or not.
    3. We should have a better feel about Ranger’s health (back) heading into the playoffs.
    4. We should know alot more about Painter and what type of impact he’s going to have late in the season.
    5. I am very cautiously optimistic about Abel after Sunday, but we should know more about his future based on what he does over the next 2 months, whether it be at AAA or MLB.
    6. I know Romano looks “fixed” but he’s had a few good weeks after a few terrible weeks, so let’s see what the whole picture looks like come July.

    On the super optimistic side, we could be heading towards October with 7 guys that you could trust to start games in October – Wheeler, Nola, Luzardo, Ranger, Sanchez, Painter, and Abel. The most you need is 4, so 3 of the above names could be key arms in the bullpen come playoff time. Again this is an optimistic, best case scenario, but imagine a playoff bullpen of Romano, Kerkering, Abel, Walker, and maybe Seth Johnson from the right side, and Strahm, Ranger, and Sanchez from the left side. If that group was pitching well, I would not feel inclined to go make any trades for the bullpen and I’d keep the next wave of prospects that could positively impact this franchise for the next 10 years – Miller, Crawford, Painter, Abel, Kemp, Tait, and Escobar.

    If the worst case scenario presents itself – Nola looks like someone you can’t start in October, Romano is completely inconsistent all year, Abel starts to struggle again, Ranger’s back is an ongoing issue, etc well then if you want to win this year, they will have to make some tough calls on moving some prospects for higher end arms.

    Personally, I like where things are at: a staff of Wheeler in Game 1, Luzardo in Game 2, Nola in Game 3, and a Painter/Sanchez tandem in Game 4? I would not feel good as another team going up against that starting pitching lineup.

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    1. not sure why you wanna give away game 3

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13. RHP Lucas Sims was signed…plenty MLB experience….I think he played on the same HS team in GA with O’s Cedric Mullins.

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    1. Phils apparently have had discussions with 40 year old David Robertson who had a good year last year with the Rangers. Everyone has an opinion on him. I’d kick the tires on him and give him time to ramp up. Desn’t foreclose later moves and if he can reproduce his 2024 season, then the third time could be the charm.

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       1. I’d pass. Only if another player goes down. I’d use a number of players before him. I’d also try to cover Abel to a reliever before signing him. Abel is sitting in the upper 90s. I think he’d be better imho than Robertson. No hate on him but I thought he was toast a few years back. Much like Kimbrel was

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          1. I’d take Robertson over Sims if we’re being honest. Granted Robertson will cost more; the only reason he’s still a FA is that he’s unwilling to take a deal that he thinks is below his value. And we know that valuation is over 7.5M, because he turned that down from the Rangers.

             Granted, it’s always possible Cotham sees something he can fix/improve with Sims. In which case I take it back, because Cotham is apparently a pitch doctor.

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          2. Agree ……….. Robertson …. no mas!

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    2. I saw the Sims signing. Do the Phillies have any other Lefties that might see the majors this year other than Graves and Walling who aren’t doing great?

       Also with Sims and and now Crow, do these countries against the organization cap in terms of player numbers? And does Alvarado suspension mean they had an opening and they now need to 60-day a guy or release someone from the overall org?

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       1. I question the promotion of Lazar who looks to be a shadow of what he showed last year. Before him, Daniel Robert just wasn’t ready.

          I think Dombrowski and perhaps Topper are taking the simple and making it complex. Abel looks more than ready to help this team in some capacity. These others look half-baked. And that reflects badly on management. I may have over-estimated Dombrowski.

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          1. While I generally agree that the guys the Phillies are throwing in there now are not doing all that great, I disagree entirely on the bad management theory. They are auditioning guys to see who can stick and they are doing it in games where the Phillies are ahead by a bunch of runs and are unlikely to lose. They need to be careful with trading away key prospects so this is precisely what they should be doing right now. I think this is excellent management. See if you have solutions in-house before you sell the farm. This is just the first step. After that, you can start mixing in starters and your better prospects – it may or may not be Abel or Suarez – we’ll see.

             Lazar’s problem is that he just doesn’t throw hard enough for a righty reliever without a true out pitch. Right now, he’s a classic AAAA pitcher.

             Ruiz is rusty but has looked very good in the past – they’ll just have to use him and see what happens.

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             1. catch, we don’t always agree — and I doubt you’ll agree here — but I respect your point of view even in disagreement.

                To preface, some will say “Don’t hand wring. The Phils have the best record in the NL.” Well, they did in July last year as well and the season ended leaving a bad taste. I look for signs that things have changed and I’m not convinced.

                On Dombrowski and the bullpen, I see him unnecessarily putting himself and the team in a box. I’d love to be wrong but I see him setting up to pay a high price for a reliever at the deadline. That happens when you compete with a hand tied behind your back.

                One wall of the box is legitimate — DD can’t spend $ for $ with a team like the Dodgers in buying a deep, talented, expensive pen.

                Another wall is Dombrowski’s aversion to offering multi-year deals to free agent relievers. The consequences of this is that the team has to develop its own relievers or acquire those with years of team control.

                The third side of the box is that the Phils don’t have a great track record of developing closers in-house. Kerkering is the closest to that but he’s not there and he may never be more than what we see currently.

                The next side is that Dombrowski thinks conventionally and treats back end relievers as a unique breed of cat.

                Translated, with Alvarado suspended and Nola on the IL, now would be the perfect time to take stock of what the Phillies have in hand and how quality arms will be used going forward. Bringing up Painter “July-ish” and assuring that Abel will be back “at some point” looks like a plan written on the back of a napkin.

                The Phils can hand hold Painter and justify it on the basis of his medical history.

                But you can only justify demoting Abel if you have waiting in the wings someone who can help the team in the pen or somewhere. Lazar, Robert; these guys might be borderline major leaguers holding their own on a team like the Rockies. But the Phils need better and Dombrowski has to see that.

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14. Did you guys see those yellow and blue flashes coming off Schwarber’s spikes when he scored from 1rst on Kepler’s double …….. awesome!

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15. Please God No!

    For the Phillies, Robertson is Bad Luck Schleprock (“Woesey Woesey Woo Woo”).

    Leave it be – there’s some bad mojo there.

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16. Best record in the National League. I’d plan on having Abel and Painter on the staff after the All Star break. But wouldn’t make a trade now.

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17. Amidst all the hand-wringing, Phillies suddenly have the best record in the NL. As I said to my wife a few minutes ago: Phillies with best record, so WIP-callers are angry about the bullpen.

    I’m seeing rumblings that Sosa has returned to playing a bit lazy, like he did in San Diego. One picture I saw this week seemed to show him a bit heavier than last year. We just might have dodged a bullet there.

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    1. What do you mean “dodged a bullet”? Sosa was never in play for the Phillies – not even close.

       By the way, I think we’ll see within the next year or two what the Mets have gotten in Sosa, but if I were a Mets fan, I’d be pretty livid that he’s not even hustling.

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       1. Who’s this Sosa guy? If you are talking about Juan Soto, he’s struggling under the spotlight that comes with the big contract in a major media market.

          I suspect he will eventually settle in but the pressures that come with being “the” guy are hard to handle. He’s always had someone (Harper, Machado, Judge) who took focus off him and allowed him to just play.

          He’s always been prone to not always running hard and being a little lazy at times but now, everyone is paying attention.

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          1. As Dan O’Dowd said…he is no longer chasing a contract, and that first year after the signing a large contract, can be a challenging one for a player with the pressure they put on themselves to instantly produce.

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       2. I meant to type Soto.

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       3. I meant to type Soto.

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          1. Yea, I know. Was just having a little fun with it.

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18. One of the best things that ever happened to the Eagles was Jerry Jones and Daniel Snyder. Welcome Steve Cohen…

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19. Of all of the moves DD has made, Luzardo for Caba might be the all time best of his career. I am not saying Caba is done, but sheesh, he is in Low A batting .200 with no power and on the injured list. Meanwhile, Luzardo is the leading candidate for Cy Young. Those type of lopsided deals don’t happen often.

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    1. Agreed….has to one of his best moves as a Philly GM…as far as his career, Sale was a good one for the Sox on their way to the WS. I just hope Luzardo stays healthy and productive for the entire season into the play-offs

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20. Another HR, single and 2 walks from Kemp yesterday. At some point you have to get him up and just figure out how to get him in the lineup.

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    1. Guess they see Kemp as a 3B/2B where what the Phils need is the platoon complement to Kepler, an upgrade on Wilson. I’d love to know how the Phils honestly see Kemp.

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21. Luzardo needs to learn to go deeper into games; personally I know Blake Snell won multiple CY pitching 5.1 every 5th day, but give me the guy like a Wheeler. Dude has been an absolute stud for 5+ years and then turns it up to 11 in the postseason. Is this the year he wins the CY? We shall see….btw, Matt Klentak made some shrewd moves for someone who cant get a sniff at another GM job; Sanchez for Mead along with the Wheeler deal.

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    1. Shame Klentak could not get a bullpen straight…each season, he tried every which way, but really never succeeded.

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    2. Yes Klentak made a couple of good moves, but signing Santana to play 1B and putting Hoskins in LF, while smugly proclaiming “value at the margins” is still a disqualifying decision to me. Plus, then you wind up allowing Mackanin to let Galvis to play SS instead of seeing what you got in Crawford because “Freddie wants to play every day.” Combine the two and you get Crawford included in the deal to the Mariners so they’ll take Santana, where Crawford wins a Gold Glove and becomes a very popular player (I’ve been to games there). Because you don’t have a young promising SS you have to sign Turner. Because you signed Turner you don’t have money for….

       While I’m here, I apologize for typing Sosa instead of Soto; I think I’d just seen an article about the struggle to get Sosa enough playing time. And it was too early to be typing. Lord knows what else I might have mistyped %)

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       1. First of all, Crawford was traded because he was clubhouse cancer. I’m sure I reported the 3 instances I was aware of at the time. I would prefer not to rehash them now but will if you need to read them again.

          Second, Santana didn’t force Hoskins to LF. Hoskins was called up in August of 2017 and split time between LF and 1B. He actually started more games in LF as Tommy Joseph was the everyday 1B most of the season. Santana wasn’t acquired until after the 2017 season.

          Third, Crawford was a 2017 September call up and played in 22 games mostly at 3B, Galvis was the starting SS as you mentioned. But, Galvis was traded during the offseason to San Diego and Crawford won the starting SS job in 2018. His season was hampered by an injury in April and another in June. He was displaced at SS by Scott Kingery during his first trip to the IL. The shenanigans I wrote in the first paragraph occurred after he couldn’t dislodge Kingery from the position. I’m not saying one begat the other, just stating the timeline.

          Crawford was traded on merit.

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          1. Thanks for the thorough correction, Jim. Memory sometimes doesn’t work the way one thinks it should %)

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    3. Through 10 starts each Wheeler has pitched 64 innings and Luzardo has pitched 60 innings. Do you have the same expectation of pitching deeper for Wheeler?

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22. The Rockies are beyond description, in the later innings when they game gets out of hand, they appear like my son’s 13U travel team. I read an article on CBSSportsline.com yesterday, that discusses how the Rockies constantly promote from within. So they suck, and then refuse to bring anyone into the FO/manager with an outside view. How prep RH, C & 1b are the most volatile positions in the MLB draft, and the Rockies select someone at the top of the draft from those spots every year. Unlike the Pirates/Rays/A’s, they have spent some $$$ on FA only to see it implode magnificiently. There does not seem to be a plan and they will continue to get pulverized, espcially as the NL west has 4 teams that are good to loaded.

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    1. Agree …….. this is a really bad team …… a team that Casey Stengel would have had fun with ……. “line them up on the base line !

       Bud Black wasn’t Casey, but easier to fire one than 26. Like you said, they should sift the whole organization.

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23. Would 4 years 100 million get it done for Schwarber? I predict he will be more productive than Harper over the next 4 years.

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    1. Slow down with that prediction. Have you looked at Harper’s climbing numbers? He’s one of the best to play this game and he’s hitting the ball hard and getting on base a ton. He also plays good 1B and Schwarber provides no value on defense. Nothing against Schwarber, he’s the man and playing the best baseball of his career, but don’t write Harper off so quickly. Also Schwarber usually starts slow but didn’t this year. Maybe Bryce will continue to heat up.

       The lack of homers is a little concerning, though, I must admit. Baseball Savant isn’t showing top of the line exit velocity, bat speed, and hard hit %, like it does for Schwarber. He has nearly 2,000 more ABs in his career than Schwarber. I know he’s one of your best players, but I’d try to work in a day off for Harper once in a while.

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       1. I didn’t mean it as a knock against Harper but more as an observation that Schwarber is becoming a more complete hitter and I think his swing will hold up. Since Harper is a first baseman now I’d like to see him add 10-15 pounds of upper body muscle. Schwarber has really gotten himself into shape and is getting positive results from it and yes I wish he could play defensively.

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    2. No, it probably won’t get it done. I think Schwarber is going to get close to $30 per year at this rate. He may very well get 5 years/$150 m or in that range.

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       1. I would consider replacing Schwarber with Kyle Tucker, then move Nick to DH.

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          1. You realize that Tucker is going to get a $300m+ contract, right?

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             1. You might be underselling him. Vlad got $500 million but is a couple of years younger. I see Tucker hitting the $400 million mark.

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                1. I think Tucker will get close to $500M.

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             2. Comparing it to Soto’s contract, who is almost two years younger than Tucker…. 15-yr, $765M, the largest in the history of professional sports….including a $75M signing bonus, a full no-trade clause, an opt-out clause after five seasons, and no deferred money….and for 2025-a $62M salary. Tucker at 29-years old next season, more than likely gets a 10 yr/$400M deal-minimum in the salary dept. But there is a limited large market contending team owners that will go that high….maybe the Red Sox, Yankees, , not sure about Cohen and the Mets, who knows with them, Cubs for sure will be there. Even the WSox can do it….but he may not want to be the next ‘Kris Bryant’ stuck on a challenged team for years to come. IMO, total salary max Tucker would get would be $450M.

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       2. Highest paid DH players in 2025……AAV

          1 – Stanton− $32M

           2 – Ohtani $28M ($70M but most all deferred)

          3 – Bryant − $27M

          4 – Devers,− $25.8M

          Assume Schwarber should be in the same discussion as those above.

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    3. He is gonna get more $ per year IMO, he is improving and playing only DH he could age like Big Papi. Plus, he has worked on his body. I see 4/$120

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       1. Yup – it could be in this range for sure.

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24. Phillies sign RHP Wil Crowe and assign him to Reading.

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25. It’s too bad that the Phillies didn’t give Schwarber a 5 year deal and Castellanos a 4 year deal…

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26. Well JC is approaching 200 AAA PA’s he’s slashing 318/378/795 OPS. He has 39 Ks to 17 BBs

    Overall his MiLB numbers are 316/372/810

    Rojas is not JC. He’s 259/319/664 OPS but you keep him because he’s cheap right handed and an excellent defensive OF.

    Marsh is really the odd man out. I hate to say it because I really like the young man and it burns me we gave up O’Hoppe for him.

    The ideal team for me right now is JC in CF and Kemp in LF but I know and understand Kemp might be really bad in LF. I’ve likely seen worse experiments out there though.

    And a platoon in RF (Kepler or Marsh) Casty: I love you man. You lace em up every night and give us your all but I can’t bare to watch you flailing away at the low and away off speed stuff anymore LOL.

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    1. I also don’t like seeing Castellanos and several other Phillies flail away at pitches out of the strike zone. That list would also include Turner, Marsh, Harper, and others.

       Are you aware that among the 8 everyday players (Realmuto, Harper, Stott, Turner, Bohm, Kepler, Castellanos, and Schwarber) that Castellanos has the second lowest K% at 17.6%? That’s much better than I would have expected. He also has the second best AVG, third bets SLG, and fourth bets OPS among that group of eight.

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    2. Honestly, we’re getting to the point where Kepler is the odd man out, not Marsh. Marsh just raised his season batting average (and OBP) above Kepler’s last night. And he’s a better defender (in the corners) than Kepler is, too.

       If the power starts coming back for the Swamp Man, Kepler will have literally no advantage over him.

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27. I am amazed by the continued criticism of DD. All he has done is produce three straight playoff teams; his signing of Schwarber more than compensates for the Casty contract; and he traded for Luzardo, so far the most dominant SP in the National League this year. Incredible!

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    1. I wrote above about Dombrowski and what I see as his limitations. I won’t repeat that here. DD has made some strong moves for which he deserves credit.

       But with the payroll he has to work with, making the playoffs alone won’t put Dombrowski on a Phils HOF wall. Even if he makes it to Cooperstown on the strength of work performed elsewhere.

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28. Kiley McDaniel just released an updated top 50.
    16. Aidan Miller at same level as Travis Bazzana
    23. Painter

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/45223803/top-50-2025-mlb-prospects-updated-roman-anthony-bubba-chandler-marcelo-mayer

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    1. Interesting, he does not have Crawford or Abel in his top 65 or 70 (top 50 plus notables who missed the cut-off) it appears.

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29. Bohm after a horrid start which was strange after a solid ST last 28 days 329/382/850 OPS 13 Ks to 7 BBs

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    1. yea, but are those Otto Kempian numbers?

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       1. LOL….

          I know your thoughts on Kemp and I share them. No one knows if Kemp’s production in AAA will translate to MLB production. But G whiz its eye popping. You have to find out.

          If we let Alec play out his final years I am fine with that. I am a huge Bohm guy always have been since we drafted him.

          But if the FO doesn’t see a LTC for him ahead the prudent thing to do would be to explore his value with another club.

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          1. Wonder who brings back more in trade…Kemp or Bohm?

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             1. Kemp brings you nothing

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30. Why does no one here talk about Keaton Anthony? The guy absolutely rakes. He’s only 23. Mashing at AA. I get that he has mostly doubles power right now and few homers. But the contact rate and walk rate is awesome. And he won a gold glove for his defense at first base. He is absolutely going to play in the MLB and I think that he carves himself out a good career.

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    1. I like Anthony also….but probably not with the Phillies….Harper will stay at 1B for awhile, and Anthony looks to be only a 1B guy. With Kemp he could be a trade chip, part of a package deal. Shame they do not have the defense versatility of Wes Wilson.

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       1. Catch said it the other day this team really lacks some RH pop.

          If there was any boldness to our brass BH could go to LF to free up a spot for someone like Kemp and then maybe Anthony next year.

          Last season I watched the Yankees throw caution to the wind and move Judge to CF to accommodate Soto.

          Kemps defensive abilities seem to be a huge enigma at the moment. You’re not replacing Stott with him.

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          1. Harper to LF means Turner stays at shortstop, means Miller will not be there and must go to 3B or then again, Turner to 2B , Stott to ss and Miller to 3b, or then also Stott to 3B, Turner to 2B and Miller to ss…whew! Get all those machinations? Nevertheless, Anthony or Kemp or Bohm. in his last year, can swing over to 1B.

             BTW….off subject a little……but like the Phillies to trade for Dalton Rushing of the Dodgers. I think he is ready for fulltime work behind the plate at the MLB level.

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             1. I was thinking about a Tait for Rushing deal recently.

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             2. I wasn’t really looking at it for more than a run at a WS this season.

                If our OF in the playoffs is Kepler/Marsh-Rojas/Castellanos I don’t give us much of a chance.

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    2. Well said, spot on …… think he should be at LHV sooner than later.

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    3. Here’s what Keaton Anthony is doing at AA at age 23/24:

       .325/.383/.535, 2 HRs

       Who’s a comp for a 1B that doesn’t hit HRs? I came up with maybe Gaby Sánchez who did hit HRs early in his career but didn’t later. Here’s what Gaby Sánchez slashed at AA at age 24:

       .314/.404/.513 17 HRs

       Keaton Anthony is having a fantastic season but his profile doesn’t really work in the bigs. And he’s blocked at 1B unless Harper eventually transitions to DH, which won’t happen if the Phillies pony up serious cash for Schwarber.

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       1. Lets see what Anthony does at Reading in June, July and August from the HR perspective. It probably will increase, but it could be primarily from the favorable hot weather park factors at the Reading park. Like Bohm, he is more of a doubles contact guy.

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          1. How about Helton, Votto and Palmeiro for comps of 1B men who could hit, but not with power?

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             1. What makes you think none of those guys could hit for power? Each of them had multiple 30+ HR seasons.

                Anthony has 12 career HRs in 572 minor league PAs. So 1/47.67.

                For their careers;

                Votto: 1/24.57

                Helton: 1/25.61

                Palmeiro: 1/21.17

                And for reference;

                Harper: 1/21.28

                Schwarber: 1/16.19

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             2. Mark Grace too. Not to mention Arraez.

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                1. Mark Grace is probably the best comp.

                   Arraez is an outlier among outliers, though. And he’s also a utility guy, not 1B only. His defense isn’t good, but Anthony would need to prove even that much ability to start the conversation.

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                2. As much as we hope that Keaton Anthony becomes the next Mark Grace, the odds of that is slim to none. Even though Grace was a late round draft pick, he spent less than 2.5 seasons in the minors where he hit 32 HR and had a career minor league OPS of .920. Not only that, he had 46.4 WAR which is no joke.

                   Keaton Anthony will likely end up closer to Gaby Sanchez when it’s all said and done.

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                3. You guys are shooting really high – let’s walk it back a bit. If we are really lucky, Anthony will have a career like Dave Magadan’s – a very good contact hitter and first baseman with limited power and good plate discipline. Magadan was a good player! https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/magadda01.shtml

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                4. Love the Dave Magadan comp. I didn’t realize he had nearly a .400 career OB%.

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                5. I didn’t comp Keaton to Grace. Just pointed out that there are examples of high BA, high OB% and low homer first baseman.

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             3. So, you’re comps for Keaton Anthony are HOF caliber sluggers? Oh c’mon!!!

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                1. Gabby Sanchez as Guru posted seems realistic. Fans just like to dream big on their prospects..

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31. How good is the futute Phillies rotation looking?

    Wheeler

    Luzardo

    Painter

    Sanchez

    Abel

    Decisions need to be made on Suarez & Walker and longer term Nola

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    1. So I think here are the highest probabilities:

       1. Abel is traded
       2. Luzardo is traded in the offseason
       3. Sanchez is traded in the offseason

       Wheeler and Painter are not going anywhere. At the end of this year, Nola will have a full no trade clause so he’s not going anywhere.

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       1. luzardo and Sanchez are starting pitchers on cheap deals. Teams with high payrolls absolutely cannot part with cheap high value players. This is not the A’s or Rays.

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       2. Agree that these guys are all incredibly valuable players and I can’t for the life of me imagine the Phillies parting with Luzardo or Sanchez in the next year – Luzardo is a freaking cheap Cy Young candidate and they may look to extend him. Sanchez is legit 2/3 with a long-term cheap contract and further upside – he’s extremely valuable.

          With respect to Abel, we will see, but I don’t think they will eager to move him absent receipt of a very valuable player in return or an equally impressive position prospect. It’s too bad the Orioles are in such free fall – the Phillies and Orioles could be good trade partners.

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       3. Probably sooner on Nola. A major league season consists of 187 days. A player is considered to have reached “one year” of major league service upon accruing 172 days in a given year. The Phillies season started on March 27th. Nola started the season with 9 years and 76 days of service time.

          So, after 96 days, Nola should reach “full 10 and 5 rights” on June 29th. If the league doesn’t recognize 172 as a mid-year counter, then July 14th. In either case, the Phillies have a very small window to trade Nola if that’s what they want to do. However, I think that’s very unlikely.

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32. Yowzer!!! You guys are really on it today.

    JMills says pay Tucker to play RF for the next 10 years. Let Schwarber go and put Castellanos at DH for a year, then let him go. The savings on Schwarber and Castellanos will pay for Tucker’s contract.

    Romus says maybe swap Stott and Turner at SS and 2B. I think, but I may be totally wrong, that I remember a big reason to sign Turner was because Stott’s arm did not play all that well at short.

    V1 says that Anthony will be in MLB eventually. He probably is all season at AA and all next season and maybe into 2027 at AAA. By then, maybe things are figured out more and Harper goes to LF or DH.

    DMar says let’s find out more about Kemp. He’s probably stationed at AAA all this season or moved in a trade. If they keep him, perhaps they give him more time in LF and we see where it goes from there.

    Like I said/wrote, you guys make this site fun.

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33. So I saw a post today that said the Pirates announced that they won’t trade Skenes this year. Obviously. But let’s pretend for a second that the Pirates actually did say they would trade him at the deadline and they are open for business. I would imagine 29 teams would be making the call to Pittsburgh. If you were DD, and assuming that any of our players that have no trade clauses or 10 and 5 protection would automatically say no to a trade to Pittsburgh, what would you offer Pittsburgh for Skenes at this deadline? What would you be willing to part with that you think would get Pittsburgh’s attention at least and be a competitive offer?

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    1. Skenes is one of the very few players who Painter is on the table for in trade talks.

       It’s honestly a pointless hypothetical because the Phillies CANNOT match what Skenes would get in a trade, but it starts with Painter, Miller, and Crawford. And that would be totally fair.

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       1. I agree on Painter, Miller and Crawford and they’d probably would want Chace even with the TJ surgery as a fourth piece.

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          1. I am generally not a fan of trades where you package multiple top prospects, including a prospect with a true HOF ceiling (Painter), for a young star, but this is one case where I might make an exception. I think I’d do Painter, Miller and Crawford for Skenes. Skenes is the best young pitcher in the majors perhaps since Dwight Gooden. A rotation that includes Wheeler, Skenes, Luzardo, Sanchez and Nola/Abel is about as good as it gets – it would have a chance to be among the great rotations in baseball history and right up there with the big 4 Phillies rotation from 2011.

             But that trade makes sense really only if you’re get many years of firm control, so it would need to happen now or the offseason.

             Also, I try really hard to keep Escobar the heck out of that trade or any trade. It’s not a consensus position now, but I believe Escobar is currently our best position prospect – I think he’s going to be an outstanding big league player, no disrespect to Aidan Miller intended.

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    2. I’ll pass and still recognize that Skenes is a really good young pitcher.

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34. Phillies record at this point…best in baseball….same as last year at this same point. No other Phillies team has ever accomplished that feat….now they just need to win the last game in October.

    As for team hitting stats vs MLB competitor ….Phillies third in OBP, 22nd in striking out, 5th in BBs, (one ahead of the Mets no less), 9th in OPS, and third in BA……only category where they are mediocre to average is HR…..even with the Schwarber explosion….they rank 17th.

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    1. Best record in baseball? I didn’t know you speak so poorly of the Tigers Romus! Would be nice if true, but …DET does field an MLB team 🙂

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       1. Oops……Tigers are doing quite well.

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35. My star gazing:

    -Keppler picks it up or he takes the Austin Hays highway out of town after this season.

    -Phils offer Schwarber 4 years for Harper AAV and seek an early commitment. If Schwarber delays, the Phils turn their attention elsewhere.

    -Ranger leaves in free agency. There’s no longer a fit.

    -Phils pencil in Justin Crawford as their ’26 center fielder

    -Stott is the 2B until such time as he’s pushed off the spot, possibly by Escobar in ’27

    -’27 is the earliest Turner is pushed off SS. Will it be by Stott or Miller? I don’t know.

    -Bohm will remain in Philly through 26, after which the musical chairs are too hard to predict

    -You’ll know the Phils are serious about Kemp if he gets playing time in LF. Otherwise, they see him as a back-up or trade bait

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    1. I’ll one up you with Kepler; he picks it up or he takes the WHIT MERRIFIELD highway out of town.

       If he’s not hitting better than Marsh by the deadline, then he’s entirely redundant. And there’s no longer a reason to be sacrificing our defense for him to get play time in that scenario.

       I’m rooting for the guy, but at some point you need to justify your roster spot. He’s not part of the future. He’s not especially cheap. So he needs to perform.

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       1. I agree with you on Kepler, in fact I had written this and WP wouldn’t deliver. This is a once and done contract. End of year, end of Philly time (no matter pennant/WS).

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36. Off the wall… but hey thats where I live…

    Phils have needs IMO at 3B and C, coming up. Maybe not this season… the Orioles have SP needs…. Send Ranger there for Basillo or Mayo. What might it take to get BOTH….?

    Ranger,Tait, and Crawford?

    Then Package Kemp & Abel for a reliever not on an ex pricing contract.

    Harper or Turner to the OF solves trading Crawford in a way. Then you can let Realmuto walk.

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    1. Orioles have no interest in Ranger. They’ve almost already played themselves out of the postseason this year, so they don’t want a pending free agent.

       If you wanna get really outside of the box, you gotta offer them Sanchez. Obviously losing Cris would hurt. But we’re not getting Basallo or Mayo without feeling the pain.

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       1. KC might have an interest in Ranger. And maybe you get one of Shields, Beam or Mozzicato from them…

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       2. Wow… I did not realize how terrible of a year they were having… i mean… Mike Trout has a better chance to make the playoffs! I just assume with all the talent they’ve farmed or signed they’d be within striking distance of the playoffs… Wow… well Efflin is their “ace” ….

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          1. I have never seen a team with more young talent botch a rebuild the way the Orioles have. It’s unfathomable. They are cheap, they are poorly run, they are stupid, and they are fast on their way to oblivion. If things are as bad on the inside as they appear from the outside, Baltimore, which seems to have an extremely bad new owner, is going be a very bad franchise for quite some time. It’s a shame really because it’s a good baseball town.

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             1. Agreed. For perspective… they have 1 more win the CWS…. I think Corbin Burnes bolting for the Dbacks was a sign. There must be something really wrong going on in BAL. Once Basillo & Mayo are promoted… if they can’t make it work… id be pulling my hair out as an Orioles fan.

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37. Painter 4 innings 3 Hs 2 Rs 1 ER 0 BBs 7 Ks 71 — 49 pitches night complete.

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    1. The unearned run was caused by an error by Kemp on a sacrifice bunt, and the earned run was an inherited runner that scored after Painter was replaced by an ineffective Seth Johnson. For those curious.

       Also worth noting, the hit he gave up that scored was a leadoff triple. But if statcast is to be believed, that must have been misplayed by Rincones because it wasn’t hit very far.

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    2. Gameday says Painter issued a two-out walk in the third inning, his first base runner of the game.

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38. Did Miller get injured yesterday? Saw he left the game and not in the lineup tonight.

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    1. 3up, Miller bruised his knee on a foul ball in Tuesday’s game. He was kept out of the DH tonight but is expected to play Thursday.

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       1. Thanks Jim. Good news it’s nothing serious.

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          1. If you had 24 hours to live, you could do worse than have these Rockies game announcers visit your bedside. Eternity might seem a welcome option.

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             1. …… also, it would be the longest 24 hours you would ever live!😅

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             2. Well in their defense, how would you like to have to try to maintain excitement calling their games every day. It’s like narrating a trainwreck and trying to convince people they really wanted to be on that train.

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39. Like the analogy, 3up. How can teams (SF and Tor in this case) keep filling the pockets of Verlander and Scherzer to the tune of $15+M? Is starting pitching in MLB that desperate?

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    1. Quality starting pitching is that desperate.

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    2. When it comes to starting pitchers, the Phillies are the darlings of the MLB.

       Want an older, experienced ace? Zack Wheeler – check

       Want a young lefty fireballing ace? Jesus Luzardo – check

       Want a developing but reliable lefty with velocity and an out pitch? Cristopher Sanchez – check

       Want an experienced, crafty lefty who can go through completely dominant stretches and has a great postseason resume? Ranger Suarez – check

       Want a crafty righty who can be dominant on any given day and typically eats up a ton of innings? Aaron Nola – check

       Want a couple of upper echelon AAA arms who have a ton of potential? Abel and Painter – check

       Want an older crafty righty who can give you innings in a back-up starter role? Taijuan Walker – check

       Nobody in baseball has the above with players that are all relatively healthy. They are the envy of the MLB. Not even the Dodgers – due to injury histories – can match them.

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40. My middle son is Denver PD. He picks up shifts at Coors Field for extra money so he’ll get to do his first Phillies/Rockies game today.

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41. The Phillies are in an enviable position where in 2026, they have more starting pitchers than available slots. So how will they deal with this “problem”?

    The easy solution is to leave Abel at AAA for 2026 but I don’t like that solution if he’s MLB ready by the end of the season. He would wasting his pitches at Lehigh.

    My unpopular suggestion would be trade Luzardo and get a haul, similar to when the Astros traded Kyle Tucker and got back Cam Smith and others. I don’t think the Phillies want to give Luzardo $180M+ especially with his injury history. And the Phillies may not have money available for Luzardo if they pony up for Schwarber.

    What if the Phillies offered Luzardo to the Orioles for Basallo (who is blocked) and Mayo (who needs a change of scenery)? Or to the Mariners for Ford (who is blocked) and Montes?

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    1. If Luzardo is a Cy Young candidate and they are expected to be in contention, I cannot see them trading Luzardo, even one year before Free Agency – it’s not what teams who are competing for titles do and seems inconsistent with their entire M.O.

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    2. I don’t see Basallo traded by O’s as he is a bat first – power is huge – player who they are working out at 1B and catcher – although his catcher defense is poor in many ways. He is by most sources a top 10 prospect.
       I like your idea of Seattle’s Ford but he is a glove first player now – offense is weaker. But Seattle need pitching ? Not.

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    3. Great problem to have… Ideally… you’d trade Nola. Im a huge Nola Phan, but I think it extends to window to keep the good younger arms Than him… that said I don’t think its feasible with contract.

       I’d do a tip toe year again at the deadline with the emphasis to retool for the next 3-4 years. I have roughly 60 mil coming off the books… 70 if Alvarado is no longer welcome in the clubhouse

       1. Extend Schwarber now, probably takes 30 mil a year For 5/6.Easily done by letting Kepler walk, and promoting a prospect Crawford, Rincones, Wilson, Kemp, etc
       2. Trade Ranger, get a prospect – C, 3B, or 1B
       3. Absolutely extend Luzardo with the money coming off the books.
       4. Harper or Turner back to the OF for next year
       5. Keep Abel, but him the Pen. He is hitting 98mph as SP. I’d rather roll the dice here than to trade him away fro a reliever
       6. Try to trade Walker, stock is “high”for him, but if not he is money that falls off with Castellanos in 2 years
       7. I’d trade bohm, marsh, Sosa for salary relief/lotto tickets in the offseason
       8. I’d promote the young players, and use their low salary to take a shot at a LTD for Tucker. When Wheeler’s salary falls off… Hopefully your staff is Painter, Luzardo, Sanchez, Abel. Would be very nice to have Ranger still but they really need a catching prospect to plug in for the departing realmuto. It helps reset the luxury tax threshold as well IF thye can’t get tucker.

       Lot of time before then… but this is what im hoping for… Its time for the prospects to get promoted and shine. They can’t do that if they get traded or blocked.

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       1. The catching minor leaguer I want, as i said earlier, is Dodger’s Dalton Rushing…he will be 25 next season and seems about ready to make the move up. Smith, at 30, will be there for a few more years, so Rushing may want to go somewhere else to start.

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          1. Im not a fan of making the Dodgers stronger, but Rushing is coming in as the #1 catching prospect. What do you think it’s going to take to swing that trade? I’m sure its an obscene cost

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             1. Two players. Probably Abel now and a position player prospect…maybe a Rincones, or Rincon, or Saltiban or even Kemp.

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       2. There is next to a zero chance that in 2027, Luzardo and Suarez are still here. They traded for Luzardo to replace Suarez next year in my opinion because I’m pretty sure they don’t expect to sign Suarez.

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       3. If the Phillies don’t/can’t trade Nola before the end of June when his 5-10 rights kick in, he will be the fifth member of the rotation when Wheeler’s salary falls off the books with hopefully Painter, Luzardo, Sanchez, Abel.

          As much as I like Abel, I’m not ready to anoint him a member of any current or future rotation. He is a young pitcher who most wrote off during and after last season. I hope he can step up to a spot in the rotation, but I need to see him pitch some more at both AAA and with the Phillies. I believe he can do it but have to pump the brakes a little until I see that this version of Abel is real and sustainable.

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42. Luzardo is not a trade candidate unless he signals he wants to go to free agency. This is the lesson from Ranger Suarez. I don’t know for a fact but am convinced that the Phils would have locked Ranger if they could and extended Sanchez when they realized they couldn’t. So Sanchez is integral to the future and Suarez is marginal. I’m convinced that if the Phils could have extended Suarez, they wouldn’t have shopped for Luzardo. Now Luzardo is integral.

    So Ranger comes off the books. Kepler does, too. Realmuto either doesn’t come back or comes back for less. Castellanos comes off after ’26 as does Taijuan. Perhaps Bohm.

    I think the bean counters can find a way for the Phils to extender Schwarber and Luzardo plus Romano (or his replacement). In time, Luzardo becomes the Phils’ 3rd high-priced arm in the rotation replacing Walker. You retain Painter and Abel which keeps costs down in the short term.

    The big salaries should go only to All Star calibre players. Luzardo is certainly one.

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    1. Personally, I think the Phillies went after Luzardo because Taijuan Walker was really ineffective AND Mick Abel regressed last season.

       Giving money to Luzardo AND Schwarber will almost certainly boost the payroll to over $300M, which I believe the Phillies are hesitant to cross.

       And nobody has given an answer to how the Phillies will deal with 6 starters (Wheeler, Nola, Sanchez, Luzardo, Abel, Painter) for 5 slots in 2026.

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       1. I just looked at the payroll… sportrac. It wont let me see 2027 but extending both Schwarber & Luzardo is very doable and staying well under 300 mil. Phils have 60-70mil coming off the books. Schwarber really only costs you Kepler’s money and promoting a cheap young player. You let Ranger, Realmuto walk that is 30mil. Trade Ranger for a C prospect, and it’s big win imho. Trade bohm & marsh, replace with internal prospects… you got your team. I looked at the FA classes coming up.. nothing to get excited about beyond Tucker imo. Past him… there are a lot of trap contracts. Its really time for these players to step up.

          As crazy as it sounds.. what would it take to get O’Hoppe back from the Angels? Yes, eat the crow and make the move since I don’t want to give up Sanchez for either BAL or LAD’s catching prospects..

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          1. I don’t think the Phillies will make wholesale changes like that to fit in both contracts.

             The Angels are a mess. Logan O’Hoppe will likely cost Justin Crawford, Mick Abel, and Jean Cabrera.

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             1. The Logan O’Hoppe ship has sailed – they need to develop their own prospects – not overpay for a young catcher. They need to sell high and buy low like they did with Luzardo. It’s hard to overstate how good of trade that was – even if he only pitches for them for 2 years.

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43. Jeff Hoffman blew another save today. He’s been awful recently for the Blue Jays. My buddy, the Blue Jays fan, thinks that he’s not 100%.

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44. betting the Phillies chase rates on get-away-days is much higher than it is in other games. Lots of free swinging today but Ranger has held the line.

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45. And nobody has given an answer to how the Phillies will deal with 6 starters (Wheeler, Nola, Sanchez, Luzardo, Abel, Painter) for 5 slots in 2026.”

    Should be the means to add a Spencer Turnbull-type starter/Swingman for depth purposes. Maybe a rising prospect as well. 8 starters are not too many in a season.

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    1. It’s May, 2025 so why does it need to be answered now? Things tend to sort themselves out so nothing has to be “answered“until 2026.

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46. Romano has been impressive..last 7 games, 3hits, 0 runs, 12 k’s

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47. The comments are climbing toward 200 already, so I’m going to close this discussion and open a fresh discussion at Phillies Discussion 5/23/2025 | Phuture Phillies

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