Phillies Discussion 5/12/2025

Other Stuff

Hopefully, the Phillies had a winning road trip.  They return home to face the Cardinals and Pirates.

I may still be unavailable, so I set this up the same as last week – publish automatically on Monday and comments open in the two previous discussions just in case this doesn’t work.  It has in the past, but you never know.

This is your Phillies discussion.

Important Dates

  • April 4, 2025: MiLB roster limits decrease from 175 to 165 players
    • April 4, 2025: MLB optioned players begin counting against player limits
  • April 7. 2025: Start of XST
  • April 14, 2025: First XST game
  • May 2, 2025: Last XST game
  • May 3, 2025: Opening of FCL season, Phillies host Blue Jays
  • July 24, 2025: End of FCL regular season
    • July 26, 2025: One-game FCL semi-final
    • July 27-29: Best of three FCL finals
  • July 31, 2025: MLB trade deadline at 6:00 P.M. EST
  • Note: These dates will be used unless/until notified differently.

 

242 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion 5/12/2025”

  1. MLB Pipeline updated its Top 100 prospects list

    5. Andrew Painter

    25. Aidan Miller

    56. Justin Crawford

    77. Eduardo Tait

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Totally makes sense. Miller is going to have to step it up at the plate to stay there. Escobar, I’ll bet, is coming sooner rather than later. And we keep having to remind ourselves that Tait is 18 years old, which is amazing.

      Liked by 1 person

    2. it’s fun that some of our top guys are in aa and aaa now too. More interesting guys in aaa like kemp and abel too. We will see where it goes and if some can help the big club later this year

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      1. Okay, yeah, I get it, but does it really matter? We know he appears to have turned it around.

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      2. When you talk about pitchers, I have to say it’s pretty amazing what Zack Wheeler is doing. The guy throws like 5 pitches, all of them are above average to plus plus and he commands them impeccably. When it comes to execution, he’s hitting his spots like Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee or Max Scherzer. It’s astonishing to watch. The very definition of an ace, and he’s earning his money in a big way.

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        1. Considering that Wheeler is making $42M per year which is the second highest for a pitcher, he better be doing what he’s doing. The Phillies are essentially paying him to be a 5 WAR pitcher this year AND the next 2 years.

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          1. Wheeler. by WAR, could be the greatest free agent signing in Phillies history…..27WAR in his 6th year. Harper also a great signing….24WAR in his 7th year as a Phillie.

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            2. Are we doing total WAR, WAR per dollar, or WAR per game played?

              Total WAR it’s currently between Wheeler and Schilling (who signed with us as a FA after we traded for him and put up over 27 fWAR before we traded him away). For the others, Werth comes into play. Phils paid him just $12.55m for 4 years and 18.1 fWAR. Even accounting for (baseball) inflation, that was a steal of a deal.

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          2. Yes, he’s being paid to perform at the highest levels, but it’s still absolutely amazing to watch him work and carve up batters. Agree the Phillies are paying him to be a 5-6 WAR player, but he’s pitching ahead of even those lofty projections so far.

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          3. Curt Schilling may be the only person who has not made the HOF because people did not like his opinions and his personality. He was not part of any baseball scandal. There’s no evidence he was ever on steroids. He didn’t bet on baseball. He wasn’t a criminal. He wasn’t charged with domestic violence or other violence. He was just a guy a lot of writers didn’t like because he was obnoxious and held many unpopular views (many of which I don’t agree with either). But on the merits he was an 80 WAR player. There is no objective basis for keeping him out of the HOF – he was truly a great player for a long time.

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            2. Well he wasn’t indicted or convicted of anything, but there is that little issue of him accepting over $100M of tax funds to create a video game that never came out.

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  2. I don’t put much stock into the top 100 or the Club’s top 50 or whatever. Just a guesstimate on where people are in the mix at the very best.

    When individuals start arguing about where they have people slotted, well that is just amusing to me.

    One thing for sure, Mick is looking really good this year. Hope he stays on the rails!

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    1. Skeet……….Willing to bet Mick Abel makes his MLB debut prior to Painter…another 3 or maybe 4 quality starts like the last few and he may get the call up by the first week in June…not sure who gets moved aside to make room for him in the rotation however.

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      1. I hear you ……. getting really interesting …… if DD is entertaining going to another gig, now would be a good time and no need to pull the trigger on a El Grande type of deal, you know!

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  3. Not sure if you all saw, but George Klassen was hit in the head with a liner last night. Sounds like he’s improving, but these things are always scary. Hope for the best for his health, season, future etc.

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/45118524/angels-klassen-improving-apparently-being-hit-ball

    Makes me wonder. Any big injuries to our prospect pool to start the year that I haven’t noticed? I don’t follow the transactions as much as others…

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    1. Pans out for the year with TJ, you may already know that though. I know John Spikerman is dealing with some issues but is expected back soon

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    3. Christian McGowan had his 2nd TJ in March. He’s obviously out for the year and you wonder how effective he will be in 2026.

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  4. What a predicament the FO finds itself in … here is what I am seeing they have to navigate:

    1. Not selling low on prospects (Abel, Kemp, Rincones, Crawford)
    2. What to do at the deadline… pretty close to all in or a bridge year?

    the Yankees just had an unfortunate injury – trade them Bohm. On the surface it makes sense, unless they have their own minor league replacement. They trade for bohm, no long term financial commitments. Phillies slide Sosa into everyday 3B or Kemp gets his chance.

    For the pen… Helsley likely wont be available if SL keeps playing this well.

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    2. Phillies aren’t trading Bohm to make space for a AAA undrafted FA who doesn’t hit breaking pitches.

      Kemp had a terrific first month of the season which was greatly added by playing 12 games vs. the worst team in the International league.

      In those 12 games, Kemp hit .370 with 5 hr and 18 RBI. Against everyone else, he’s .297 with 5 hr and 18 rbi. He feasted on bad pitching but the warning signs are there. His K-rate this year is over 27% with a BABIP of.418.

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      1. I feel like we have to let the Kemp thing play its way out. Some are overly optimistic about him while others are very critical not fully taking into account that this guy probably needs time to adjust to AAA given that he didn’t even have a full year in AA before this. The truth about what he can become is probably somewhere in between these extremes. But at this point, you cannot rely on him to be Bohm’s replacement – I don’t see Bohm going anywhere for the balance of the season at least.

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    3. The Yankees are not in desperation mode yet so they will try their internal options first.

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      1. agreed… but … its DD’s job to make Bohm look … “attractive”… I hear liquor can help with that sometimes 🙂

        On Kemp, I need more info. So, the Nancy’s say he can’t hit the breaking ball.. how bad is it? Can he hit hanging breaking balls? What about off-speed/Changeups? Can he square up a fastball like schwarber or is it lucky contact?

        If he were to hit .225, with 20-25 bombs, slugging .475, .775 OPS with lots of SO…. Are you taking that over Bohm? Let’s give Kemp better Defense too. if not, you got Sosa.. and another offseason to fix it. IMO, Bohm’s days are numbered here. Whether is Kemp, Miller, Turner, or Escobar… he’s no longer in the plans. I think the rest of the league sees it too… I’d make that trade to make room for Kemp, or Sosa.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. ‘Bohm’s days are numbered here’…… you may be correct, but not sure Dave D will disrupt the locker room right now by trading him…chemistry is a tricky thing. Things may change in July, but more than likely it will be November. Another regressive ending and for sure thigs will change…not just for Bohm.

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        2. Tac3 …. I was with you as far as Sosa ……. I don’t see him being an everyday solution especially defensively …… did you catch him at 2nd last night?

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            2. 100% Have also thought McMahon would be a solid replacement. But he’s really struggled. I was thinking Abel for him prior to the season but now I don’t think thats a good trade at all.

              Plusnid like to hold on to Abel if possible.

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          2. I always liked him as a defensive replacement for 3B… Maybe Bohm just makes him look good 👍

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        3. Otto Kemp’s 2025  AB Breakdown (based on the pitch that concluded each AB)

          Overall : 49 for 152 – .322

          Fastballs : 19 for 60 – .317

          11 outs in the air 

          11 outs on the ground 

          19 hits

          5 HR

          19 K’s

          Off-Speed : 30 for 92 – .326

          21 outs in the air 

          10 outs on the ground 

          30 hits

          5 HR

          31 K’s

          Liked by 1 person

          1. Hmmm… good enough for me! Nice info, appreciated. To dive deeper… are they lumping breaking balls into “offspeed”? Im assuming so. I can understand the claim he mopped up against a junk pitching squad…. But he did Also have the AFL, and last year.. so im bullish that he’ll continue to make adjustments. Trade Bohm, promote Kemp.

            Liked by 1 person

            1. there is no “they”. I went thru every one of his AB’s myself – here’s the hit breakdown :

              Slider – 17

              Four seamer – 12

              Change Up – 8

              Sinker – 7

              Curve – 3

              Cutter – 1

              Sweeper – 1 

              Liked by 1 person

          2. I like the fly outs.. can still be productive for moving runners along and sac flies. The SO are what they are. Hopefully he can minimize them. Basically he’d fit right in on this team

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    4. What about Fairbanks from Tampa? I just feel the cost of Hesley and his end results won’t be satisfying.

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      1. Helsley is a FA next season.

        Fairbanks and even Cleavinger from Tampa would be decent options. However, Fairbanks has an affordable team option for 2026 and Cleavinger is still under arbitration. Both would likely cost just as much as Helsley.

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      2. Trenton Guy- I agree with you on Fairbanks of the Rays. He is a reliable experienced closer. He also makes $3.6K this year and has an option that could be $7K next year with a $1K buyout – depending upon various games pitched etc. etc. For the Rays team $3.6K is a king’s ransom and he could be moved for $$ if no other reason. I also think every team is going to want Helsley – so his price will be higher no matter due to competition.

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  5. Shoeless Joe Jackson and Pete Rose had the lifetime bans removed as well as others involved in the Black Sox Scandal. One owner ……. guess the team?

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    1. I’ll help you out ….

      William Cox owner of the Phillies was banned for betting on baseball. He was forced to sell the team.

      Robert Carpenter bought the team and essentially handed it over to Robert, Jr. (age 28) to run. In 1944 — 1946 they used the nickname Blue Jay’s to indicate a new infused “spirit”. In 1949 Sr. died and Jr. became sole owner. He ran the team until 1971, when he turned the team over to his son (Bill?). The Carpenter family had control of the team until 1981. FWIW.

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  6. Today is an important day for the Phillies. They’ve played well lately, but the Mets keep winning, the Braves are coming on, and the offense has scuffled the last few games. The Cardinals have handled the Phillies this year and we’re already 1-3 against them. I think the Phillies need to beat good pitching today and sweep to keep the heat on the Mets and for their own mental state. I do think they may have under performed in the first game of the Guardians series and the Cardinals series due to travel getting them in late. There should be no excuse with an off-day yesterday and an off-day tomorrow, all hands on deck to win two important games.

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    1. I think the Phillies just need to make the playoffs and have their pitching going on all cylinders – then anything can happen. If they win the division, that’s great. But if not, oh well.

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  7. I think the guy teams will now lock onto is Abel, knowing the team won’t move Painter or Miller or Escobar. My view is that this team has more starters than it can start in the playoffs. Wheeler, Sanchez, Nola (yes, Nola) and Luzardo are going to be locked into rotation spots – so Ranger and Painter can be in the bullpen (or Painter can be a 3 inning opener if they don’t want to mess with him). There are a lot of creative options available here short of trading Abel.

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    1. In fact, once we get toward the middle/end of August, Abel could be a BP option. I just hate the idea of this team buying high on a BP arm when it has an overabundance of starting pitching, including a starter (Suarez) who used to be a shut down bp guy. Think out of the box a little, people!

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      1. catch, everytime I think outside the box another one finds me!

        the FO has some sorting to do, with the meter being stuck in the middle. Not so clear answers on Abel, kemp, and Crawford.

        We are all pretty pro-prospect around here and Abel … is re-emerging. Feels like the Gavin Floyd/Hamels era again. This time… Abel & Painter seem to be legit. The FO has to be careful not to sell low on him even though they have enough starters.

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        1. if Abel is ready, I’d lean towards trading Ranger +
          prospects (Bohm if I’d help) for a upper level BP arm. Keep Abel and his controllable years. No way does Ranger resign, might as well not lose 2 arms in the process for what likely is a rental

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          1. Ranger is 3-1 with a postseason ERA of 1.43 – to me, he’s way more valuable in any capacity in the playoffs than whatever he brings back in return. The answers to many of our problems are sitting in house in my humble opinion.

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            1. its a good opinion. I love Ranger’s cold as ice demeanor in the playoffs. Tough to trade, hate doing it,but it is the right call if Abel is ready +Romano & Kerkering are right. Painter imho, will be a GM4 opener in the playoffs. 2-3 innnings. Trade Ranger and others for a top tier BP arm, thats the best move. If you keep ranger, and trade Abel for a rental.. you basically lose 3 pitchers for the championship window which is looking to get reset with the emergence of the next wave of prospects & a Schwarber extension (Hopefully). Technically.. you could lose 4 MLB arms if Romano bolts at the end of the year. Trading Ranger, helps you keep at least 1, realistically 2 of the 3. Will see but that is how I am looking at it. is it really the all in year? Not yet for me.

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            2. As for Romano leaving – he’s a rental. Maybe he signs and maybe he leaves after the year is over and they sign somebody else.

              I would be positively shocked if they traded Ranger and if they do, I hope it’s for a young position player, which is really their biggest area of need going forward and perhaps even this year. But I expect him to play the year out and try to help them compete for a championship. He’s the only pitcher they have who has a good track record as a starter and reliever, which makes him very useful.

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  9. This is for those who think that it’s easy to draft and develop:

    Justin Crawford went #17 in the 2022 draft. He currently is slashing .319/.386/.411 at AAA. He’s the #56 prospect.

    But what about the OFs that were drafted before him?

    #2 Druw Jones .279/.376/.310 at A+

    #5 Elijah Green .157/.242/.259 at A+

    #9 Gavin Cross .183/.228/.286 at AA

    #16 Chase DeLauter is on rehab at rookie ball but he’s the #52 prospect

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    1. No doubt. If Justin Crawford becomes an above average big league starting outfielder, then that draft pick was a huge success.

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  10. Just saying….in the last 7 appearances…Romano 1.35 ERA….Hoffman 16.50ERA

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  11. I am thinking they will let Stubby get about another 75 to 100 PAs with the Iron Pigs, in which he seems to be doing very well, and bring him up and let Marchan get some steady work at LHV to get more rhythm for him..

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    1. Marchan is on the team to begin with because he’s out of options. If Stubbs takes his spot, it’s because the Phillies have given up on him or he’s on the IL.

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      1. Forgot all about that little detail with Marchan. You are correct…unless Marchan gets injured or DFA (which I do not think they want to do that with the hope he passes thru waivers), Stubby stays in LHV.

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  12. Nola did a great job of protecting a 5-1 lead coming out of the first. Now averaging 1 homer per inning tonight. But dont worry, remain calm, nothing to see here. Paid like a #2 starter, pitching like a number 4 opener

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    1. Nola was bad but Thomson was worse just sitting there watching that mess happen. Was obvious Nola had nothing by the 2nd inning. When they tied the game on the Schwarber hr he needed to make the move.

      Managerial malpractice.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. What if Nola is our consensus #5 starter by the time Painter is ready for a promotion? It was a bad game, sure. It’s been a bad season, sure. But it’s a bad trend over years.

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        1. Aaron Nola is in year 2 of a 7 year deal. Unless he’s hurt, the Phillies are stuck with him, no matter how poorly he performs. He’s not going anywhere and he’s not leaving the rotation unless Nola says there’s something wrong.

          The only thing I could see is MAYBE the Phillies skip his spot in the rotation due to days off.

          But this is the danger in giving a 7 year deal to pitchers in their 30s. The Phillies rolled the dice and now they’re stuck with his contract.

          Liked by 1 person

          1. Nola is a pitcher. He will be fine. Tough stretch of adjustments to go through for him, but he will put it together yet again. People wrote him off so many times already. His detractors need to relax, the guy can pitch.

            Liked by 1 person

            3. I’ll let the numbers speak for themselves:

              9 starts, 49.2 innings, 6.16 ERA, 1.51 WHIP

              His SO rate is slightly down and his walk rate is slightly up. It’s not something that he hasn’t had in his previous years. The issue is the HR rate and hit rate, they are both at the highest of his career. So he’s giving up more hits and more HRs.

              So let’s just say that his next 49.2 innings (9 starts), he has a spectacular run and only gives up 1 run per game. His ERA now becomes 3.89. But who here thinks he’s going to do that in his 9 starts?

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          2. As I mentioned weeks ago…..if Abel gets another 3 or 4 quality starts under his belt bring him up…which will be around the first week of June……and if Nola cannot come up with good consistency, then put him on the IL, with ‘dead arm syndrome’ and let him try to work things out.

            Further once Nola starts to lose it in a game, which is pretty obvious to all by now, Top has to yank him, even if it is in the 4th or 5th inning…there was no excuses yesterday of letting him stay in the game, even with an off day today.

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            1. I have a couple of problems with this. Nola is getting paid to go 6-7 innings, not 4-5 innings. Second, if the Phillies won’t allow Nola to work through these issues, but let the other starters go 6+ innings, then there’s going to be friction.

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    1. The diminished velocity and effectiveness have been evident – sounds like he might be on his way to TJ surgery in the near future.

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  14. The Phils need a young corps of Luzardo, Sanchez, Painter and Abel. It’s never been clearer that they need to hold on to that core of starters — getting as much as they can for as long as they can from Wheeler, Nola, Walker and Suarez.

    I don’t see how they can interest Ranger in staying past this year. They’re playing a game to prolong Taijuan’s usefulness in whatever way they can find it.

    There’s no easy answer on Nola. He’s here for the long haul. His performance will determine how he gets used and how he is relied on. If the Phils make the playoffs this year, will Nola be among the 4 starting pitchers whose name is called. Walker showed already that drawing a big paycheck doesn’t assure use.

    While Abel might help bring back a quality rental for the pen, I now feel that would be a bad move. The Phils need to find another way to stitch together a bullpen for the post-season. Maybe that pen incorporates Painter, Abel and — who knows? — Nola.

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    1. Luzardo will be entering FA at age 29. Before people here start talking about giving Luzardo an extension, note that his injury history is very long. He’s only pitched over 100 innings twice in his career.

      Ranger is gone, he’s looking to get paid.

      Nola is a homegrown guy, he’s going to get way more leash than Walker. But Nola’s decline in year 2 of his deal is very worrisome. My buddy, the Blue Jays fan, is busting my chops about it.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Luzardo, much like Wheeler, Suarez, Sanchez, Walker and Painter, has an injury history. Each case is different. The Phils have extended starters with an injury history and I expect they will try to extended Luzardo if he’s healthy for the season — they’d be nuts to let him go to free agency after the 2026 season.

        And they should retain Abel who has a clean health history on an injury-replete ward.

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        1. Wheeler and Painter have TJ history, and even then, the Phillies gave Wheeler a 5 year contract. Walker got a 4 year deal. If Luzardo wants a 4-5 year deal, I can do that. If he wants a 7 year deal, he can go elsewhere.

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          1. If Luzardo continues to pitch like a Yamamoto,, then Yamamoto becomes his comp in salary negotiations.

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            1. No, he doesn’t. Yamamoto got a 12 year deal because he was 25. Luzardo will be 29 as a FA.

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  15. I’m a hockey guy but long time Phillies fan, was wondering if this makes any sense, I know there has been talk about going to a 6 man rotation but in the past Wheeler I believe has said he’s against it. Could you go to a 6 man but for Wheeler just pitch him every 5 games. If that doesn’t make sense it won’t hurt my feelings, just a thought. Maybe the extra rest will help Nola and keep some of the others fresher for when the playoffs start.

    With Wheeler, Luzardo, Sanchez man have they been impressive, just got to make the playoffs and hope they all stay healthy.

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    1. Do you really want Wheeler, who’s getting paid $42M, to pitch less? Not only that, you’re down to only 7 relievers. If one of the starters exits early, then you’re going to tax your bullpen. And who has 6 reliable starters anyways?

      You can get away with a 6 man rotation for a short period but not for a full season.

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  16. You can go with a 5-man or a 6-man rotation but the system doesn’t work perfectly if Wheeler pitches on regular rest. Somebody at the back end, maybe two somebody’s, get off schedule.

    The Phils are load-managing Painter but not Abel, to my knowledge. Bringing up Abel soon makes sense only if the team has in mind a mid-year 6-man rotation, or to fill for an injury.

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  17. Nola is good every other year this happens to be his off year LOL

    Which got me thinking about this years draft and whether or not a high quality college arm might be available where we pick.

    Miss Hinkie for that stuff.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I think they should so what they always should do, which is to draft the guy they think will be the best major league player. That said, I’m hoping the best future major league player for them is not a starting pitcher – they’ve got plenty of starting pitching. I’d love a power hitting corner outfielder, thanks. And I wouldn’t mind an all-star catcher, either.

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      1. Im hoping the FO can pry away the orioles catching prospect for Ranger. Feels like a good deal for the near future.

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    2. Phillies drafting at 26th and 63rd in the second round. The two arms that could be there at 26 are RHPs Riley Quick of Roll Tide and Tyler Bremner of UC Santa Barbara…they are ranked pretty high by MLB.com.. possibly first round picks. And correct….miss Hinkie’s annual draft reports.

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      1. Long time reader, infrequent poster.. I too miss Hinkie’s insightful posts..

        I also miss LarryM, who used to be a frequent poster (he was a lawyer as I recall, maybe going back a decade). Thanks to Jim and the others that have helped maintain this site over the years..

        Liked by 2 people

        2. I’ve been following this site pretty religiously since 2008 and there were quite a few regulars back in the day that no longer post. Hoping most of them are still in good health. Who all remembers these names: supra98x, AnonomousVOR, Mike Honcho, Bellman, Handzus, Puddinhead, Andrew Cleavland Alexander, allentown1, bradinDC, Rei De Bastoni, Buddy Biancala….

          Liked by 2 people

          1. Yes remember them also….and one who caused quite a stir at time…….marfis.

            And that bradinDC was a doctor down in the DC area if I remember correctly.

            Buddy Biancala still posts…last week I think I saw his post..

            Liked by 1 person

          2. Well, some of them may be posting with “new handles”, as the Word Press Software has a strong arm tactic that can demand a new name.

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  18. Lots of talk on Nola, as he bombed last night. To make matters worse he was spotted a lead. It’s a hurtful loss… doesn’t mean Nola can’t pitch. Here is my take FWIW:

    Nola has been written off at least 3 times

    1. Once early in his career, big down year after a high
    2. After Bauer exposed spidertack (not saying he used it btw)
    3. Start of the pitch clock

    Each time he has bounced back, to near the top in the league. This would be the 4th time… Here are my thoughs. He’s not a power a pitcher. He needs a good pitch plan, proper mechanics, and spin rate etc to be effective. When For whatever reason, Stubbs is good with him. It’s likely one of those 3 issues… as the league has seen him a lot. They have the book on him. He’ll get it. I’d like to have him confirm it’s not an injury. Maybe it’s dead arm already and he’s laboring from the past 3 extended seasons due to the playoff runs. Maybe he finally does stink… but I’d wager he finds the answer again, as long as hes not Hurt. Give him 2 more starts, let’s see if he turns the corner like Kerking & Romero seem to have done… if not … Send him down, bring Abel up, and let him rest.

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    1. *put Nola on the IL to rest/figure out issues not send down to minors. If Abel does well, happy problem.

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      1. IMO, a couple more consecutive starts like last night, and he may very well ask to do that himself…..that is, figure it out on his own. He knows when he is hurting the team.

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  19. Hey Steve P – have you seen the kid Angel Lirzano pitch? His numbers look great so far and he’s still only 18. Thanks

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    1. Yes he signed as an international free agent –  1/15/23 – Sanchez, Dominican Republic – came stateside on 5/10/24 but went to work with the rehab team at the complex recovering from a back ailment, he spent the entire summer there, we saw him in a couple live BP sessions in August – he was activated and placed on the Clearwater Threshers roster on 8/31/24 and made his stateside debut on 8/30/24 in Fort Myers going 2.1 innings allowing one run on one hit and three walks.  Liranzo had caught our eye (actually Matt Winkelman of Phillies Minor Thoughts was the first to notice) by his 2023 performances in the DSL where he posted a sparkling 0.89 ERA going 5-0 in 10 appearances (4 starts) totaling 30.1 IP with 30 K’s and just 8 walks – a stellar 0.79 WHIP as a 16 year old 😳.  Minor league pitching coordinator Travis Hergert told me that summer that Liranzo has a “Ranger Suarez type delivery and build. Fills up the strike zone with three to four pitches. Change up is solid. Exciting young arm.” He currently features a low nineties sinker, four seamer, a really good change up and hard slider – is a strike thrower who competes each and every pitch – athletic with an easy motion – I’ve seen him twice this year in FCL games – scouts I sit with remark on composure and command – backfield games can be tough to watch as often kids can’t throw strikes but this young man has shown he can throw quality strikes – internally there’s always been a buzz about what he might become.

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    1. …. also @ that mark a pick off……. and Crawford 2 — 3 with a dinger ….. yep I know “slapped” one into the stands!😅🤣😂

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        1. I don’t think anyone doubts that Justin Crawford can hit a ball hard. The issues are whether he can hit a fair share of fly balls that can leave the yard (as opposed to line drives and ground balls) and pull balls in the middle, inside of the plate rather than hit them the other way. I don’t think anybody expects Crawford to hit 25 home runs, but it wouldn’t be good if he only hit 3 or 4 per year. EV is very important, but it only tells part of the story. Some very mediocre players have great EVs..

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  22. Two month early mock draft: MLB.com

    26. Phillies: Mason Neville, OF, Oregon (No. 62)In 2018, Trevor Larnach was a college outfielder in the Pacific Northwest (Oregon State) who rode a huge performance up boards in a hurry to land in the first round. This year’s version could be Neville at Oregon, he currently leads all Division I hitters with 26 homers.

    Ranked 62nd…..another Vegas guy.

    https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/draft/mason-neville-702563

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    1. If Neville is there I’m not sure you could pass on him. He has a terrific profile https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=nevill000mas

      I still lean grow the arms and buy the bats for the simple reason front line starters are a ton of money for the number of games they can impact. Not to mention you can almost guarantee a lost year for TJ.

      We got really lucky with Wheeler. I haven’t done the math on Cole but the Yankees have had him on the shelf for a ton of games so far.

      Like

      1. Gerrit Cole (Boras client) signed a monstrous 9/324 at age 29. In the first 5 years of his contract, Cole accumulated 19.8 WAR his first 5 years so the Yankees got their money’s worth even with Cole missing almost half of last season with injuries.

        Now the last 4 years of his deal is where it gets dicey. Cole underwent TJ this past March so he’s going to miss the entire 2025 season. Now who knows how well he will be able to recover at age 35. Not only that, he’ll likely be on an innings limit in 2026 (similar to what Andrew Painter is going through now). So you can argue that 2025 and 2026 will be more or less lost years for Cole.

        In general, the only FA pitcher deal that I’ve seen that was actually worth it for the team was the Max Scherzer deal with the Nationals. And he was extraordinarily healthy for that deal.

        You have to be very careful giving long term deals to pitchers in their 30s.

        Like

        1. Cole had the TJ Mar ’25…..the surgery included an internal brace, but was still a full UCL reconstruction, meaning his recovery time is still expected to be around 14-18 months. So more than likely he will miss the first half of next season.

          Like

        2. Skubal is going to be the next blockbuster FA pitcher deal. Also a Boras client but definitely older. If my math is correct he will be a FA at 31.

          The Tigers are firmly in the drivers seat with him, controlling him for the 2026 and 2027 seasons.

          Skenes will be a FA in 2030 at 28 it appears. 5 years is a long way off for any starting pitcher.

          Wheeler says he’s retiring after the 2027 season so figure us to be players for anything good that year. Unless they extend that’s both Skubal and Mize.

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          1. According to BR, both Skubal and Mize are FAs in 2027. They both will also be age 30.

            Skubal is obviously the prize and he’s going to get paid. I’m not the biggest fan of Mize. His career SO rate is 7 which doesn’t bode well as he ages.

            Like

      2. DMAR…have to pass ….big red flag in college….33% K rate…BA just over .300….so contact is in issue vs college pitchers….against major league pitching probably worse.

        Like

  23. Minor talk:
    Any update on Moises? Ferrebus with 2 HRs today, what about the big LA $ signing Arias? Any info on him? McFarlane may be this year’s Klassen, someone who is touted and rises and then DD trades at his peak value. Abel is not untouchable, but I can see them(Painter) replacing Ranger and Nola in the future. Not too mention I would not sign JL to a long term deal, I just do not trust his long term health. Regarding a possible Kerkering candidate for the pen, we have been reading about Baker/McCollum but it aint clicked for them. Mercado/Johnson have struggled. Is there anyone else to keep an eye out for?

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  24. Watched Painter’s start last night. The only two guys who really “handled” him in the Mets lineup were Senger and Meneses, two guys with Major League experience. He dominated the minor leaguers.

    Like

  25. Stupid leadership. It never ends. Nola goes on the IL an Abel is brought up. But the FO states that Walker will take over the 5th spot after only one turn through the rotation. I’m sure there will be some body who will tell me how dumb I am but this is incredibly stupid. They’ve made their bed.

    Like

    2. Somebody could use a little jet coolant. They’re going to a 6 man rotation as there are no off days on the horizon. I’m happy Abel is getting his shot. If he shows he’s ready, he can stick. He would need to be better than 3 of Hernandez, Robert, Ruiz and Banks. Otherwise, he’s back to the Valley with some useful experience in his pocket.

      Wheeler, Luzardo, Sanchez, Suarez, (Nola), Walker, Abel

      Romano, Alvarado, Strahm, Kerkering, Ross, Banks, (Ruiz), Hernandez, Robert

      Like

    2. If you’re gonna bring Abel up because Nola is going to the IL(wink,wink) then give somebody like Abel more than one start. Walker was a horrible signing like Casty and Nola.

      Like

      1. Yeah……it is just a cameo for Abel it appears, since next week in Colorado Walker comes back into the rotation. I am not sure what that is all about. They do now however get another service year latched onto Abel’s control years before he hits free agency…..but that is jumping the gun a little.

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      2. what are you talking about. Phillies aren’t calling up Abel to replace Nola. Daniel Robert’s was called up to take the roster spot.

        what source do you have regarding Abel?

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            1. Kinda sucks. I think I’d prefer keeping Walker in the pen as the long man…unless Abel gets shelled…haha

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    1. So according to the timetable post-TJ…assume if he has the surgery this month or June, then 14/16 months out for rehabbing….he pitches again in the AFL in 2027, similar to how Painter came back in the last AFL season.

      Like

  29. Looks like it is just a cameo for Abel since he may not travel with the team to Colorado and Oakland….at least that is what it looks like right now….which is weird. That cannot be correct…bring him up just for the one start.

    They come back against the Braves after Oakland, was thinking Abel would have started vs the As in Oakland next weekend, family could also see him at there since they are from the West Coast, but not sure Top will be doing that. Who knows what they are thinking

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    1. I imagine the thought process is they wanted to give Walker an extra turn through the rotation to get stretched out again, so Abel starts once while Walker builds up for a week.

      I’ll actually be at the game on Sunday with my dad, so it’ll be cool to see both Skenes and Abel’s debut. But I have pretty bad luck at games I go to with my dad, so everyone be prepared for him to get hammered.

      Like

  30. I’m trying to understand this and the pieces aren’t fitting together for me.

    So, Thomson knew he (Nola) was injured. Let him go out to work his way through it. Nola is getting hammered and Thomson knows why, but doesn’t lift him …… are you kidding me … is this really true? Do the Phillies have a mystery writer to make this stuff up?

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    1. Hah……when you put a player on the IL…it has to be somewhat justified and assume medically certified by league rules…sore backs, dead arms and apparently ankle sprains fall into the realm were it cannot be disproved. To your point, if it were October, he would probably be pitching still. I think he wanted on the IL to work his corrections….and it is the first time on the IL for Nola since 2017. Also, before he returns from the IL, he may get a few innings in with LHV or Reading.

      Like

  31. To me, it sounds like a sham injury to get Nola to clear his mind and get right.

    As for Abel pitching on Sunday, I understand not wanting Abel to make his debut at Coors field. However, Abel making only 1 start doesn’t seem right at all. Taijuan Walker is not part of the solution, unless the Phillies are showcasing Walker in a future trade.

    Like

    1. Mick Abel is still only 23. These are the guys you keep to get cheap production, especially with pitching being so expensive.

      Like

  33. Did Ottenbreit get hurt? I saw he started the game in the boxscore, but threw no pitches.

    Miller showing a little progress lately around .230, hit a HR tonight.

    Crawford keeps hitting!

    Like

    1. They’re in Wilmington where the thunderstorm that hit Philly tonight was even worse.

      I’m guessing they just bumped his start to tomorrow after the delay they had.

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  34. Miller has the tendency to get off to really slow starts so he seems to be following suit. At least that shows he is capable of making adjustments. Let’s keep our fingers crossed. Also Romus, where is Don 52?

    Our boys were very, very fortunate last night. They scored all those runs in the seventh inning without the benefit of a hit. I’m writing that because Pham totally blew that play on a very catchable ball in left field.

    You could see how pissed the relief pitcher was when he exited the game. He knew Pham should have caught that ball. Add to it that Harper did NOT hold his swing and should have been called out. In any event, I’ll take it.

    Liked by 1 person

  35. Have to give credit to Dombrowski. The Phils long time stalwart goes on the 15-IL and the ensuing discussion– how the Phils should deal with the situation — is whether the team should deploy a 5-man or 6-man rotation. Sounds like a first world problem. Dombrowski has built some rotational depth that most other teams would envy.

    Where does this lead? I don’t think they’ll significantly thin the herd. They’d move Walker if they could but they probably can’t. Can they rely on Nola to make a fairly full recovery? What can they hope for from Abel, later Painter? Before I would have slammed the Phils if they didn’t unload Ranger since he’s so clearly gone after the season. Now, I’m relaxed if they retain Ranger. He’s a #4 caliber starter with some flexibility.

    Maybe starters become relievers in the big scheme. It would be great to add a reliable back end reliever but if the price is too high, the Phils should have an abundance of high quality arms they can go to war with.

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    1. Retain Ranger…..that could be a budgetary issue!

      ……Wheeler, Nola, Sanchez, Walker for a brief period now, and in another year or so Luzardo…..are super-maxed contracts for the pitchers they are and will command in salaries……how does a team incorporate Ranger in that mix at probably minimum $25M AAV for 5 or 6 years….Boras is his agent also as of 5 months ago. If Painter and Abel go into the rotation…..that makes it more difficult

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Not only a budgetary problem, but how many years and money do you give a #4 with a bad back?

        Like

  36. Nope, this is Ranger’s swan song in Philly this year. Before, I saw him as a valuable trade chip at this year’s deadline. Sell for whatever you can get. I no longer feel that way. If going all in this year means slotting Ranger in wherever he can fit, that’s fine by me. Luzardo should be extended this off-season with Ranger headed elsewhere.

    Liked by 1 person

  37. Romus and Ciada. Lots of baseball and softball games the last few weeks. I am still watching all the Phillies games I can. Some nights are late getting home and the weather here in Indiana has been less than ideal on almost a daily basis. Very appreciative you asked. I too wondered on Rocco. I also mentioned to someone last night that Matt13 has not been on for a long time. Disappeared around the time Hinkie did. Matt13 and Romus were always so nice.

    Wheeler looks good. I like Cole as an analyst.

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    1. Alright…glad to see you back. Yes Wheeler looking good so far…..Cole has that dry tone but I like it. Hope your grandson is doing well…..I think you said he was going to have surgery on the arm.

      Like

      1. Romus. Good win for team last night. Wheeler was very sharp. But most often is that. The thing I like on Cole since I was a former pitcher long ago is how each pitch has a purpose to the end game of the at bat. He is really good at projecting what is going to be thrown and why. I like him a lot.

        I too like Ruben as announcer. I am old school, and I appreciate when he mentions that maybe this or that should have been done or would have been done back in the day.

        Agree on Kruk. He is just what he is. He is just a fun-loving guy. His at bat against Randy Johnson in the All-Star game pretty much says it all for him. He is very good, and he goes well with T Mac.

        Romus. Grandson has been really good playing. Batting around .500 playing basically with one arm. He began at 1B where he still should be for his arm but 2B was making so many errors they flipped them. Also, brought the best OF in to play SS. So, defense is much better. Problem for him is 2B requires so much longer and harder throws. He has turned at least a half dozen double plays and those are killers for his elbow. One yesterday to end the game. Looked like one Stott turned last night. I feel much better when the ball is hit halfway between bases. He is to have surgery next month. At this point the middle procedure but he may have hurt it more so we will see. Yesterday was the most he showed pain on the last play of the game. Thanks for asking.

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    2. Hamels is infinitely better than Amaro is. Schmidt is also better, but he’s hit or miss depending on what he feels like talking about that day.

      I’m hoping, if they continue this trend of not having Kruk go on road trips, that Hamels will eventually completely take Amaro’s spot. Kruk is the best of the bunch, though.

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  39. Though he sits at 25 on the Phillies’ Top 30 prospect list, and is little talked about….21-year old Hendry Mendez, who came over from the Brew Crew farm system, seems to want to put himself into the top prospect conversation with how his bat is doing in Reading. A career 14-K% and 12-BB% indicates he makes contact and is able to take a walk. he could be a sleeper for sure this season.

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mendez002hen

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    1. Son of a gun ……… I adopted that 7 expresso coffee’s a day regimen ……. and I was missing the additives …. knew for sure it didn’t work!🤪

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    2. But if a GLP-1 like Ozempic got him banned…he needs to appeal thru a medical board……he may have had high glucose levels or blood pressure.

      I sure hope it was not a GLP-1…..seems everyone who wants to lose weight are on the weekly injections…..how can it be banned substance….does not an enhancement drug or steroid….so to speak.

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  41. imo not pitching in postseason is a bigger blow, Painter is gonna need to be Andrew Miller

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  42. Do these guys on PEDs honestly believe they aren’t going to get caught?

    Here’s hoping Able has a better debut than Seth Johnson had last year.

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    1. They probably just think they can get away with it long enough to get a payday or give them a long enough look to stick in the majors.

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  44. Majority of MLB players popped for PEDs are from LA. Don’t know if coming up through those countries they are taught to push the line to gain an edge. Definitely more than a coincidence; also I’m wondering if Abel is being used as a trade chip today. Marquee matchup vs Skenes, more so with news of no Alvarado for 80+ postseason.

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  47. Abel really good performance ……. leaves me nervous and antsy, …… hope it wasn’t a showcase …. that was nice!

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    2. Ruff. Nice to hear on Abel. Been at phone store all day. Maybe. Not good news on Alvarado.

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    1. Noticed that Anthony is having a nice season so far, without too much attention.

      Kind of an after thought really, but I thought Marchan did a really nice job today calling pitches.

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  49. Abel very impressive today. He managed to channel his nerves into adrenaline; first two pitches 98, 99! No walks.

    Liked by 1 person

  50. I’d like to hear the Phillies FO right a wrong in light of the Alvarado bull crap and leave Walker in the pen and allow Abel to remain in the rotation.

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  51. Dave Dombrowski on Jose A…”It’s not something he did knowingly, I believe that, the way he talked to me. Basically the system is a very stringent system in the sense that you’re responsible for what goes into your body. That’s what it really comes down to. I know what he was doing, he was trying to take a weight-loss reduction, he’s always been self-conscious of his weight and working hard on it. Something he took gave a positive result, but ultimately it’s a situation where if it happens, you’re still responsible for it.”

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      1. Don….you cannot believe how many people I know take a GLP-1….be it Ozempic, Maunjaro, Wegovy or any other. Most people I know take. Maunjaro…..and they drop the weight.

        MLB will need to modify their program for foreign ingestible substances……I would think GLP-1s will have to be allowed at some point. I do not think it can be considered a PED or a type of steroid that will enhance a players skill…other that help to lose the weight.

        What if a player is diabetic or even pre-diabetic, or has elevated blood pressure readings….they are given appropriate drugs for those ailments.

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        1. A lot of the stuff on the restricted list aren’t PEDs, but rather things that MASK them in tests. I’m not a doctor, so I don’t know if what Alvarado took falls into that category, but that’s what most guys get busted for these days.

          Either way, anything on that list that also provides medical uses can be given an exemption on a case-by-case basis. We ran into this over a decade ago with Chooch. He got a suspension for Adderall but was later given an exemption to take it in subsequent years.

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    2. Too bad he doesn’t have a nutritionist, or trainers, or workout facility to help him get in shape

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  53. That was a pretty awesome game to see live. I’m pissed that the ump robbed Abel of setting the new record for strikeouts in a debut, but he’s in the record books regardless.

    One takeaway, though, was that his slider and change need some work. His fastball and curve were just cutting through the lineup, but his slider wasn’t fooling anyone. And his change was a show-me pitch at best. But he definitely looked the part of a big league pitcher and I’m really happy that he and his family got to celebrate such an awesome debut.

    Also, Skenes is a monster. Shoutout to Marsh. He didn’t record a hit, but he looked the most consistently comfortable against one of the best pitchers in the game. Everyone else looked silly at least once, but Marsh just kept putting together competitive at-bats.

    Liked by 1 person

    2. Dan…the jinx is broken. Now you guys are on a run. I like Abel’s demeanor on the mound , the early hits did not seem to phase him and he worked right thru those hits. Also liked the fact Marchan who knows him from catching him a lot last year, did a commendable job behind the plate.

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  54. Been a few days since I could post… didnt get to see the games, working way too late, so I’ve seen the highlights …

    So Nola did go on the IL. I still think he makes adustments and can be the post season pitcher we all expect/want. Is his ankle truly the issue? Will see… but I tend to believe more than not. part 2 coming shortly

    So … one of my favorite BP arms ever…Alvarado is either a user. I tend to believe when players do get caught .. it’s legit, very low error rate. Especially with the policy.. you’re reasonable for what you put in your body.. shoudlve had it tested. Truly sucks if it is for weight and it’s some off chance an error.. but after my boy Lance Armstrong… each im not believing nothing. Appeal it .. That postseason band is nuts. Never knew that. I think thats a bit harsh but … it is the rules.

    Mick Abel … Wow. Well… damn … now you can keep Nola on the IL long, keep walker in the pen or swap.. since Alvarado got caught … Damn … are you going to trade Abel now? Lol … Sell high if you do! Not say I would .. but DD has really got some tough decisions ahead of him.. hope he navigates it correctly

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  55. Here’s a shoutout to backup Stubby who has probably helped Abel more than can be quantified at Lehigh. It didn’t hurt that Marshon caught him and the kid had worked with him last year.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. The Phils announced early plans to promote Painter “July-ish” to join a rotation with Wheeler, Nola, Luzardo, Sanchez and Suarez with Walker in reserve. I’m not sure what the plan was but now — with Nola briefly on the shelf — they announced plans to return Abel to Lehigh Valley.

      I’m wondering if this thinking reflects a team poised for success and opportunity or one that sees success as carrying out a pre-conceived game plan. Abel produced today as much as the Phils could possibly have hoped for from Painter or any other starter on the roster.

      Now with time before the trade deadline is the time to figure out who the best league-ready arms are and figure out a plan to use them. If Abel turns his ankle stepping off the Iron Pigs’ bus, people will ask why he was on that bus in the first place.

      If Painter is on an innings watch, Abel presumably is not. Put the pitchers in roles they can handle with a workload they can handle. If Walker and Suarez aren’t happy in the pen, remember they don’t figure as part of the long term plan. But if they can strengthen the pen, maybe the Phils don’t fill a BP need by giving up valuable assets at the trade deadline.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. tricky spot for DD, let hope he uses his wisdom to navigate through this. Technically.. if they trade for BP help, they could lose a lot of arms for a shot at the WS… Abel & Ranger to a trade … (or Ranger to FA), whoever the traded for reliever is if its an expiring contract .. and likely Alvarado now. Either he’s not back, or he saved the Phillies money on his contract extension. Plus you have Romano who could now be thrown back into the closer role, have success and he cashes in elsewhere …

        Looking like they should trade Ranger, Keep Abel. I love Nola, but if Abel is for real.. and Painter… thats also a viable route. Eating a decent portion of the contract, getting a reliever and then plugging the young guys in. Again.. tricky spot for DD, but the last scenario Im sure many want. Not sure it’s realistic

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      2. Don’t fall in love with the prospects too much where the big league club suffers.

        If they make the World Series I can justify nearly any move DD makes.

        This whole season, and pretty much the future of the organization really comes down to how in is DD going to be.

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  56. Abel was amazing. Very happy for him. Especially with his struggles and then to perform like that.

    I just get this Gavin Floyd feeling.

    And I go back and forth if I want him as a trade chip or part of the future.

    The Phills didn’t wanna part with any significant prospect over the winter. Do they now?

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    1. Even though Gavin Floyd was a high pick, he was never a high SO guy. Abel may have trouble with walks, but he has always had a high SO rate.

      If the Phillies don’t believe in this new version of Abel, he’ll be traded. Otherwise, a cheap, productive starter is what everybody dreams about.

      I would rather trade Luzardo in the offseason for a top 50-75 prospect and insert Abel and Painter in the rotation.

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      1. Today’s baseball you need a rotation 6…7….8 arms ready. Wheeler/Nola/Sanchez

        I’d sign Luzardo long term if he continues to have this yr.

        And let Walker/Painer/Abel/Chace/ect fight it out for #5.

        That’s assuming no one is traded of course.

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        1. I think Chace just had TJ surgery?

          For me I am hoping they don’t make any panic moves to solve a short term issue.

          From a pitching standpoint I’m starting to come around on Hernandez and maybe, just maybe Cotham can bring him along to be a more reliable 7th/8th guy.

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    2. Baseball and pitchers have changed enormously since Gavin Floyd was a prospect. I remember going to a Gavin Floyd AAA start and he never threw a pitch above like 91 MPH. Yesterday, Abel was sitting in the high 90s. Physically, Floyd and Abel look a bit alike, but Abel has stuff that Floyd could only dream of. Yesterday we saw the Abel that was described to us when he was drafted. He’s taken quite a difficult road to get where he is, but those struggles could end up being the best thing that ever happened to him. We’ll see.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Nice summary Catch. I think you’re correct I just mean that im reminded because Abel is similar to Floyd and the circumstances with him coming up pitching a game and I feel he’ll be gone before too long. Not so much stuff wise.

        Liked by 1 person

  57. While we enjoy the thrill of victory in the aftermath of Mick’s fine effort and that of the relief pitching.

    It is not lost on me that we won that game on 3 hits and were out hit 2 to 1.

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    1. Tough to hit Skenes…..no one can hit the ace……he probably again will be a finalist in the Cy Young, and just barely with double-digit wins. His dominance is Gibson-like.

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  58. .5 Games back of 1st place and 2 series coming against the Rockies and A’s is a prime chance to build up some equity in the division. Let’s hope they take advantage of this soft spot in the schedule.

    My biggest disappointment of the weekend was Schwarber not getting his 300th HR at the Bank.

    Lastly I was hopeful Kepler might provide something but he has been awful of late. Seeing his slash drop to 218/307/675 OPS has me itching for something else out there.

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      2. Fair enough Romus but I can’t check the $$$ at the door LOL

        So my expectation is no less than 4 out of 7 games.

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  59. I look at the Pirates, the Rockies, the Marlins, the Rays, the A’s and, to a lesser degree, the White Sox, but also, teams like the Reds, Royals and Brewers and I think MLB has a very serious problem. Unlike all of the other sports (except maybe hockey), baseball has a pretty significant tier of teams that, due to massive differences in financial capabilities, have either no chance or a very low chance of fielding competitive teams and, even if they can for a short time, virtually none of it is sustainable for more than a year or two. MLB needs to solve this problem somehow. It won’t be easy, but it’s critical for the long-term survival of the leagues.

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      1. No way are the big market teams agreeing to that. So, basically, the small market teams will be relegating and rewarded with a World Series? I don’t think so, but they definitely need to come up with new ideas.

        Like

        2. You are incorrect…..the difference between MLB and all the other major sports….is a HARD CAP period….that brings balance to the sport. MLBPA has vetoed that proposal for the last two decades. The ‘luxury tax threshold’ plan does not work to what a hard cap can do. If what you say is correct, small market teams will ” have either no chance or a very low chance of fielding competitive teams and, even if they can for a short time”.. well that will continue under this present structure.

          And as far as large market teams rejecting it…..that would remain to be seen.

          My solution would work…and needs no MLBPA approval.

          Like

          1. The NBA doesn’t have a hard cap either, they have a tax like system with varied exemptions and advantages to resigning players vs. signing FAs.

            For MLB, the biggest issue they have and the one they can’t solve is revenue sharing. Because each team have their own TV deals the revenue streams for big market clubs dwarf the small market teams.

            The Phillies local deal with Comcast is approx $125 million per season. The Pirates deal is $50-$60 million. Dodgers deal in approx $200 million.

            Also, not sure how creating a system where small market teams are rewarded a WS spot for being the best small market team makes much sense. They will probably be about worse than about 8-10 teams from the large market league.

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  60. Okay, I keep reading about the Phillies making a trade for a relief pitcher. At some point, I think this may be necessary. However, I don’t think that point is now. This team has a ton of pitching. A ton of it. Fortunately for them, but not for the moment, that pitching mostly takes shape in having too many starting pitchers, a nearly unheard of luxury. The answer is right in front of them. Take one or two of those pitchers and turn them into relievers for this year – and you may not have to do it right now. I would seriously think about taking Abel and/or Ranger and moving one or both of them to the bullpen at some point. BP is not their highest and best use overall, but this year, it probably would be.

    Liked by 1 person

  61. The Phils with the relinquishing of Jeff Hoffman clarified that they weren’t inclined to offer multi-year deals to free agent relievers. Estevez going elsewhere on a 2-year deal is another example.

    If the team sees relievers in that light, they either develop relievers or acquire relievers with team control. Any reliever on an expiring contract and seeking a multi-year deals in free agency will be a short term rental in Philly.

    Rather than consume the seed corn, the top prospects in the system for a rental, the Phils should work between now and July 31 to piece together the best BP they can with existing parts. This involves re-purposing 1 or more starting pitchers — not necessarily trading any.

    Sure, it’s tempting to say “trade Ranger” — whose contract is expiring. But, as a rental, his value is greatest to a contender seeking to bolster its rotation. Proven back end relievers are not what such a team would give up, even if a rental. So unless a 3rd team is brought in, the Phils don’t match up well with teams that would value Ranger the most.

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    1. I don’t think the Phillies don’t want to sign relievers, they simply didn’t want to take on too much more salary with where they are with their payroll tax, which is extremely high – it was one place where, given their payroll, they thought they could save a little on salary and they may have been right, absent the Alvarardo issue which nobody could see coming.

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    2. The Hoffman situation is completely different as he wanted to start and get a rotation spot similar to Clay Holmes did. The Phillies weren’t initially in his market. I believe 100% if they hadn’t already started negotiations with Romano and Hoffman came back down to his Jays reliever salary they would have matched it.

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      1. But perhaps they dodged a bullet – not clear now what the best outcome may have been. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Phillies traded for Hoffman again since the Jays probably won’t be in contention. The Hoffman contract is longish so the compensation may not be significant – maybe Seth Johnson and a lottery ticket? Maybe a guy like McFarlane? I won’t break the prospect bank.

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  62. By the way, I still believe this team’s ultimate biggest need is a serious right-handed bat. Basically, the bat that Austin Hays has this year, not last year. Or the bat Rhys Hoskins is showing this year. I could totally see Hoskins coming back for a stretch run with Harper temporarily moving to the OF. This team needs more hitting. I’d love to say Kemp is the answer but I just don’t see this team relying on an UDFA to answer their hitting needs this year – I just don’t see it, but who knows?

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  63. I’d be astonished if Hoskins returns and causes the daisy chain of moves it would entail. Doesn’t comport with the Phils’ style of personnel management and certainly not the style of the current front office. A Jeff Hoffman return? That’s a possibility, maybe 15 % chance, that I wouldn’t oppose. Might make re-signing Romano more difficult. If Romano continues to perform, he’ll be looking for a Jeff Hoffman type deal.

    I am ready for a platoon in LF since we’re not seeing Max Kepler at his peak. My hunch is that, barring a marked improvement one wouldn’t expect in his case, he’s gone after this season. The Phils haven’t found the answer in LF. It’s a problem they can’t ignore.

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    1. Why is everyone so worried about signing Romano past this year? He was disaster a month ago, now he’s doing okay. Let’s try to win the WS this year and then worry about a replaceable part like Romano when the dust clears.

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      1. If Romano pitches to his career average this year, he’ll get paid in the off-season. If Hoffman pitches to his career average, the Phils won’t want him. Why make it seem like Romano has no track record of success?

        Why worry going forward? That’s what good teams do. In baseball … and football .. and ….

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        1. Yeah, but the good teams in all sports know when to strike early (early contracts for stars like Jalen Hurts, Jordan Maialata, etc. . .) and when to wait things out and not move forward too soon (Josh Sweat, Milton Williams . .). Everything about the Romano situation tells me they should wait this out before extending him. The benefit of a slight discount on paying him now is not worth the risk of locking him into a contract they could come to regret, especially since the discount is going to be modest.

          As for not worrying, yes, they shouldn’t worry with Jordan Romano. Every year there are plenty of reliever candidates on the FA market. If he does well here, they can still sign him. There’s a difference between worrying and making a potentially foolish premature move.

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  64. The Dodgers never seem to amaze me when it comes to money. I realize that when a team averages over 50 thousand people per game it’s easier to spend money and not have to worry too much about it.

    They just released Chris Taylor who has a $13M contract for this year and a $4M buyout for next year. This being mid May, the Dodgers are on the hook for probably $8M for this year and $4M for the buyout.

    That’s my comment. Now I have a question: Alvarado has a contract for $9M this year. I know he doesn’t get paid during the suspension and that’s probably $5-6M that the Phillies are not having to pay him.

    Does that money go against the Phillies’ salary threshold this year or if they get a replacement, is that $5-6M now available to use to pay someone that they could trade for now? Hope I’m not confusing any of you.

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    1. If a player is suspended, the money they would have earned during that suspension period does not count against the team’s luxury tax threshold.  Suspensions are treated as a form of non-salary expense, similar to how a player’s salary is not included if they are on the injured list. Not sure that answers your question.…as far as a replacement’s salary, that counts against the luxury tax threshold or CBT–Comp.Balance tax.

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      1. Does that mean if a player like Harper is on the IL for a month and Kemp or Kennedy is called up, the Phillies are only charged the rookie max compared to a month of Harper’s salary???

        Also, the Pirates look really bad scoring only 3 and 2 runs all series on a couple of homeruns. They look like they are going through the motions. And running O’Neill out there with a bad back!

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  65. I am so happy for Mick. He will be a better pro because of his struggles. Electric stuff and great command. Awesome. So happy for him and for the Phillies.

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    1. It was just one performance, albeit a really good one. Go ahead, pick the next guy (minors) that will impress us if given the opportunity.

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  67. With Hoffman, if two teams turned him down due to physical exams – maybe the Phillies are lucky that he chose another place to play ?? To me – his physical state is a red herring on him – no interest….

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  68. if they can get to the playoffs – teams dont use more than 4 starters. Wheeler, sanchez, luzardo, and probably Nola are your 4 (unless nola remains in the toilet). The FO has said that Painter is a starter but he won’t contribute in that role come the postseason. Ranger in the pen, Painter in the pen. Maybe one or two trades and you look more solid. Check on the price of a bunch of Orioles relievers. But your big late inning addition is probably painter

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