The Phillies took 2 of 3 from the Nationals. The game three loss was a little disappointing. It was nice to see the Phillies power break out in the first game of the Diamondbacks’ series. Nice catch by Rojas in the ninth inning.
I’m going to be unavailable for a while. I’ve set this up to publish automatically on Monday. I’ve left the previous week’s comments open just in case this doesn’t work. It has in the past, but you never know.
I’m doing the same thing with the following week, too.
This is your Phillies discussion.
Important Dates
- April 4, 2025: MiLB roster limits decrease from 175 to 165 players
- April 4, 2025: MLB optioned players begin counting against player limits
- April 7. 2025: Start of XST
- April 14, 2025: First XST game
- May 2, 2025: Last XST game
- May 3, 2025: Opening of FCL season, Phillies host Blue Jays
- July 24, 2025: End of FCL regular season
- July 26, 2025: One-game FCL semi-final
- July 27-29: Best of three FCL finals
- July 31, 2025: MLB trade deadline at 6:00 P.M. EST
- Note: These dates will be used unless/until notified differently.
Transactions
May 2025
5/03/2025 – Phillies activated LHP Ranger Suárez from the 15-day IL
5/03/2025 – Phillies placed RHP José Ruiz on the 15-day IL retroactive to 5/1, neck
5/03/2025 – Phillies activated CF Brandon Marsh from the 10-day IL
5/03/2025 – Phillies optioned CF Cal Stevenson to Lehigh Valley
5/03/2025 – Lehigh Valley transferred LHP Nick Vespi to the Development List
5/03/2025 – Jersey Shore sent OF John Spikerman on a rehab assignment to FCL Phillies
5/03/2025 – Clearwater sent RHP Orlando Gonzalez on a rehab assignment to FCL Phillies
5/03/2025 – Clearwater sent C Angel Mata on a rehab assignment to FCL Phillies
5/03/2025 – C Yhoan Escalona assigned to FCL Phillies from Clearwater
5/03/2025 – FCL Phillies placed RHP Wilmer Blanco on the 7-day IL
5/03/2025 – FCL Phillies placed RHP Naoel Mejia on the 60-day IL
5/03/2025 – FCL Phillies placed OF Jaeden Calderon on the 7-day IL
5/02/2025 – Lehigh Valley sent C Payton Henry on a rehab assignment to Jersey Shore
5/01/2025 – Phillies optioned RHP Daniel Robert to Lehigh Valley
5/01/2025 – RHP Tommy McCollum assigned to Reading from Jersey Shore
5/01/2025 – RHP Eligio Arias assigned to FCL Phillies from DSL Phillies Red
5/01/2025 – RHP Alexander De Los Santos assigned to FCL Phillies from DSL Phillies Red
5/01/2025 – RHP Joel Heredia assigned to FCL Phillies from DSL Phillies White
5/01/2025 – RHP Naoel Mejia assigned to FCL Phillies from DSL Phillies Red
5/01/2025 – RHP Brad Pacheco assigned to FCL Phillies from DSL Phillies Red
5/01/2025 – RHP Fernando Ramos assigned to FCL Phillies from DSL Phillies Red
5/01/2025 – C Francisco Loreto assigned to FCL Phillies
5/01/2025 – C Cesar Mujica assigned to FCL Phillies from DSL Phillies Red
5/01/2025 – 3B Meylin De Leon assigned to FCL Phillies from DSL Phillies Red
5/01/2025 – SS Jose Familia assigned to FCL Phillies
5/01/2025 – OF Jaeden Calderon assigned to FCL Phillies from DSL Phillies White
5/01/2025 – OF Victor Cardoza assigned to FCL Phillies from DSL Phillies Red
5/01/2025 – OF Jorge Julio assigned to FCL Phillies from DSL Phillies White
April 2025
4/30/2025 – Phillies traded RHP Enrique Segura to Texas for RHP Daniel Robert
4/29/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated 2B Christian Arroyo from the 7-day IL
4/29/2025 – Reading sent C Paul McIntosh on a rehab assignment to Jersey Shore
4/28/2025 – Lehigh Valley transferred RHP Jose Cuas to the Development List
Phuture Phillies 
solid week for the Phillies. They’re going to have no choice but to bring Kemp up soon. Guy is forcing their hand with ridiculous hitting. Does anyone know if he profiles as at least an average fielder or no?
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Unless something happens with Bohm as in an injury or a trade, I can’t see Kemp coming up. I maybe wrong ,but you don’t bring a bat like that up to play him once a week. He has a total of 2 games this year in the outfield and his other posistions are 2nd and 1st base a non-starter on this team.
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Nothing is constant, change always has its way …… stay tuned!😉
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Alec Bohm currently has a .550 OPS. No doubt the Phillies will give him time to break out of his funk, but I doubt they will give him the entire year to do so. I’m guessing here, but I think Bohm will have up to the AS break. If he’s still struggling at the break, Bohm will lose his starter job to Otto Kemp.
That said, I would not be surprised if Bohm loses his job sooner. He’s just not producing as a starter.
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I disagree, he’ll have the entire year. This is a guy who has hit every season. He’ll figure it out.
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Bohm has a WAR of about 8 in 5 years in the majors. Thats barely starter level over the course of his career in value.
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Kyle Schwarber has a WAR of 16.5 in 10+ years in the majors, barely starter level.
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Don’t get hung up on WAR. It overvalued defense in the calculation. Bohm has averaged 280, 16, and 90 the last three years and Schwarber is obviously a DH.
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Oh, I agree murrayfein on WAR. It overvalues defense and speed, but many use it as the one-stop shop for player evaluation.
That was my point with Schwarber.
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Hit every season is a stretch for a 3B hitting .274/.324/.409 and doesn’t have the glove to overcome offensive shortcomings.
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Bohm has a .740 OPS since mid-April and is hitting close to .300. He has broken out of his horrible start with the exception of hitting for power.
At what point does this same conversation every week finally become old?
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Yes, some folks seem to want to award the World Series to stats rather than the actual playing of the game on the field. You can utilize numbers/stats when comparing/contrasting players, but far too many live and die by a player’s WAR.
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My favorite poster child for WAR was from the 2023 team where Christian Pache and Schwarber had an identical WAR for the season (according the baseball reference)
Schwarber’s 720 PAs with 47 hr and 104 RBI and .343 OBP were worth just as much as Pache’s 95 PAs with 2 hrs and 11 rbi an .319 OBP.
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Does Bohm have options if they would decide to send him down for a period of time to “fix things” while giving Kemp a 30 day look?
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Yes, he still has options. But this is the dude you can see sulk in real time when he’s not having a good day. Do we really think he’d take a demotion well?
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No, and neither would a “Ben Simmons” type personality. So if Alec couldn’t handle a deserved demotion, then he might not have the right mentality to be successful long term. Having said that, I don’t think he deserves to be demoted at this point. It’s only May 5th and while what Kemp is doing is super impressive, the Phillies are not in a position of desperation in any sense. Alec, for all his flaws, seems to work very hard and cares a lot, so to me he deserves at least June 1, if not the All Star Break, to turn things around. While Kemp may very well turn out to be a great player, the best probable outcome here is for Bohm to return to his best offensive form.
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My guess is that they package Kemp with Walker and money to get a relief pitcher back.
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I haven’t seen Kemp play 2B , how bad or how good?
Abel is picking up as well, might be an opportune time to make a trade and to get Walker’s salary off the books
spitballing but kemp,Abel, walker for hesley (sp)(Stl) and Arenado
Trade Bohm for something else.
I like kemp a lot though, it would hurt
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No, Bohm for a reliever and Kemp to 3B.
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Thats the ideal trade, I just don’t think STL goes for it. You likely need to add Kemp to make this happen.
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Teams that sell at deadline don’t want a player making $7 million and due $9.5-11 million next year. They want young, cost controlled players. That’s why Marsh and Bohm kill any chance of a deal. People need to look at trades from the point of the team selling. That’s why 99% of the deals fans dream up and DOA.
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I have to say what is happening right now when we look at the Phillies as an organization is pretty exciting. The possibility of next year’s roster including Crawford, Miller, Kemp, and Painter is a very real possibility. The stocks of Rojas, Abel, Escobar, Tait, and Stott have all improved in the first 5-6 weeks, and the performance of Walker and Castellanos give a glimmer of hope that with some continued success, a little luck, and some sly front office maneuvering, we could get off one or both of those contracts with a little incentive added on each.
I see a possible ‘26 lineup of 1) Stott 2B, 2) Turner LF, 3) Bryce RF, 4) Schwarber DH, 5) Bohm 1B, 6) Realmuto C, 7) Miller SS, 8) Kemp 3B, 9) Crawford/Rojas CF, with a bench of Sosa, Marsh, Marchan, and Wilson
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You don’t want Harper back in RF. His range was poor years ago and I’m sure it’s gotten worse as he’s gotten older. Let him stay at 1B.
Re-signing Schwarber will likely put the Phillies over the next luxury threshold and I think he’s going to get at least 4/120 at his current production. I think some team will give him Schwarber a blowout offer and it won’t be the Phillies. It would not shock me if he got a 5 year deal at age 33.
If Realmuto comes back, it should only be for a 1/15 deal max. His defense may still be decent but his offense is in decline.
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I hear that…. Schwarber is going to break the bank… I can easily see him getting 5 years… It was a mistake to let him get into the season without an extension. The Phillies have to resign him. The thing that does stink about it, is that he clogs up the DH spot. He can be paid but it will cost somebody – Kepler, Realmuto, Bohm, Suarez … unless you they can dump Walker’s salary at the deadline. Tall ask but will see.
I think it’s a little soon for Miller, probably teh following year.
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Trade Bohm to Boston to play first base there. Bring up Kemp. He can’t be worse than Bohm.
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Okay, yeah, why does Boston want him? Cmon!
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Amazing how far Bohm’s stock has dropped. He was an ALLSTAR last year … and right about now.. he has next to no value. Probably couldnt even trade him for David Robertson at the deadline straight up
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Has his stock dropped? The Phillies were asking for a ridiculous return for him in the offseason but it doesn’t seem like the rest of the league was very interested.
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Bohm can be traded….but at a cost…consideration with added value….most teams may take Bohm as long as a Phillies top pitching prospect is included-GMs all want pitching……Painter is a no brainer, Dombrowski is no idiot, but I can see teams now taking a chance on Mick Abel as he has seem to turn around his career.
But what can the Phillies get in return…not a whole lot….probably another teams lottery ticket prospect or maybe a tier two reliever.
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At this point, it makes no sense to move on from Bohm. It’s about one month into the season and his trade value is so low he’s not going to get you anything that makes a difference. He was an above average regular last year and you may continue to need him if he turns around his season. At best, he continues to be your starter and at worst he’s insurance if you go in another direction if Kemp becomes the solution (folks, that’s not a foregone conclusion – we’ll have to see). I don’t see why you move him now. Walker is another story. I’d move him if you can.
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If you want to move on from Bohm I don’t think you need to include a really good pitching prospect. I also don’t think he brings you a ton back in terms of MLB talent but there is likely a market for him.
Some history with us and the Angels so maybe Perry feels like he owes us a solid for rooking us on the Estevez deal. LOL
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The inability for DD to make a deal in the offseason when everyone knew the Phils were trying to move him spoke loud and clear. Financially he will make more but teams don’t appear to value his skill set to offer up a fair return. He is an ok defender but has below average power. He is fully developed physically so that isn’t room for continued growth. Plus he is not a leader and appears to be viewed negatively by his teammates at times. He could be waiting a long time when he does hit FA after 2026 season.
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I’ll admit I always thought that Bohm would develop more power as he aged . He’s certainly got the body for it. At 28 going on 29 I don’t see it now suddenly showing up. I think this is the best your going to see from him . Time to unload.
Kemp could be a dud, but I don’t think so. Take a chance Sosa could fill in the rest of the year if it don’t work out and adjust in the off season.
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Prospect A;
Prospect B:
Prospect B is Justin Crawford.
Prospect A is Chander Simpson
Want a comp for what Justin Crawford could look like in the majors, watch this: https://x.com/Jomboy_/status/1919756471409029452
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Due to massive age differences and Crawford’s interesting tools, we have the good side of this comp.
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Yeah. There are many ways to make an offensive impact when you run that fast. That is why his ground ball rate doesn’t bother me. He can beat out a routine ground ball.
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Im horrible at these but I guessed Crawford correctly
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What do you think of the comp?
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It’s good but the 3 year age difference skews it some
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Sure. But the point is here is an elite speed guy with a high ground ball rate that is making an explosive impact.
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I come at the Phils’ 3B situation through the lens of a team which, if it makes t he playoffs, offers an invitation to quality opposing teams to push out a string of lefty starting pitchers. Bohm — power down to non-existent; Turner — power down to non-existent; Realmuto — power down; Castellanos – power at level but not dominant. How do the Phils counter this production shortage from their right-handed bats?
Is Bohm in a slump or is he now what we can expect going forward? If he doesn’t rebound, does he figure in the Phils’ plans? Do they offer Bohm in the current version arbitration for 2026?
If they have to get it right, do they wait until the end of the season with the chance that by then they will have gotten it wrong?
Otto Kemp, the International League player of the month for April, needs protection on the Phils 40-man roster after the season. An X-factor now, are the Phils content to let Kemp be an X-factor this December?
The Phils need a path that protects the team, respects Bohm and offers hope to Kemp. The Phils can’t wait till the end of the season to sort out Bohm. To me, they need to know by the July 31 trade deadline whether Bohm is a keeper, a placeholder or expendable.The Phils need a Plan B if Bohm doesn’t rebound. So I’d pencil June 15 as the date Bohm has to get himself right, meaning to at least be the player he was in 2024.
If Kemp continues to fire on all cylinders and Bohm flounders, then Kemp gets a June 15 call-up and the six weeks till July 31 to audition for the 3B job. If he succeeds,then the Phils have a right-handed contributor to an otherwise lackluster batting order against left handed pitching. If Kemp isn’t ready, the Phils still have Bohm.
Either way, the Phils have useful information for making a decision about 3B going forward.
I don’t see a more clear way of addressing their right-handed hitting needs in the near term.
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I was @ the Pigs game today….Kemp drove in the tying run with a single after K’ing his 1st 3 ABs. Crawford had 2 line drive singles, Stubbs had 2 soft liners over the infield for singles…The Columbian pitchers did well. Crismatt only 1 hit in 6 inns with soft stuff…Zuniga 1.1 inns with hard stuff. They lost on Blake Sabols 2nd HR a Grand Slam
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Is Zuniga someone who can give us some help ….. no nothing about him.
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His numbers suggest no. Hasn’t been good the past couple years, and he has almost as many walks as strikeouts so far this year.
Maybe Cotham could work some magic with him, but there’s a few pitchers I’d rather see get a shot before him.
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Nick Castellanos has played in every game this season, he’s played in every game last season, why would you play him 200 games without a day off?
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To keep him happy.
Whether it’s the correct choice or not is certainly debatable. But Topper plays him every day because Casty specifically wants to.
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You can get on Casty for a host of things, but he’s a gamer. He want’s to be out there no matter who’s pitching.
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I wasn’t try to ding the player but more the coach, as it doesn’t seem like the best approach to manage their health and bench.
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But he shouldn’t be out there every day. That’s the problem.
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We are trying to get our monies worth!🤨
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Ask Ripken, or Olson with ATL. Never going to ding a player for taking pride in posting every day.
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Looks like Bohm and Casty read all the negatives comments earlier today and decided to respond.
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well if that’s the case … 🙂
Casey… WTH…. Where is that CIN hitter we thought we signed in FA? 40+ 2B and 40+ hrs … Schwarber is living up to his… where you at? Come on bro!
Bohm… 1 hr … you’re getting out slugged by Rojas!!! Let’s go. Eat those damn wheates already. Tell your teammate Turner to do the same thing
let’s pick it up here a bit
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That’s the spirit Tac. WTG!
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My hot take prediction. Bohm has a higher OPS than Stott by the end of May.
His exit velocity. hard hit %, and barrel rates are significantly higher than Stott’s which will eventually produce more base hits
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My hot take prediction. Bohm has a higher OPS than Stott by the end of May.
His exit velocity. hard hit %, and barrel rates are significantly higher than Stott’s which will eventually produce more base hits
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That may very well occur, but what may have a bearing on that, is if Top decides to sit Stott in favor of Sosa against LHPs. Up to last year and now, Stott’s split were equal, almost reversed….but last year and so far this year they have turned and Stott is having his issues with LHPs.
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I would much prefer he allow Stott to play regularly against lefties. They need to learn if guys like Stott (and Marsh) can be everyday players or if they really are platoon players.
Stott has shown in the past he can handle lefties, Marsh not so much yet.
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You’re wondering, after 3 1/2 years and 2/3 of the way through a long term contract, whether we will ever see the Cincinnati version of Casty? Really? I think the big sample size of data gives you the answer.
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Casty is an old school baseball player, for 150 years guys played every game when they were the starter. Like he said when he signed, he didn’t go to college. He gets paid to hit the baseball.
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Schwarber out of the lead off spot is finally starting to look like what I had imagined. Stott is doing fine there.
The hitting may finally start to settle in and BH hasn’t even got really hot yet and he will.
A strong month of May by the offense will go a long way to taking some load off of the BP and the Starters.
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DMAR….true…..and just hope Ranger and Taijuan are able to hold their own and stay above water as the 5th or extra starter.
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I have few concerns about Ranger. The bottom line is that he was perhaps the best pitcher in baseball for about half the season last year and then I believe he was hurt and wasn’t himself. He needs to stay in the rotation because when he’s on, and I think at some point soon he will be, he can be dominant for long periods of time. In September, they can decide whether he would be worth more to them in the postseason as a starter or a reliever, but he’s a mercenary this year as he’s not signed for next year – so whatever role they need him for is how they should use him, without any hestitation.
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Yeah…whatever role they need Ranger to perform in, they will use him there. Hope that first start was just a blip on the radar and he is able to make the corrections and adjustment.
These guys though view Ranger as to be gone after August,
https://athlonsports.com/mlb/philadelphia-phillies/all-star-believed-to-be-trade-candidate-ahead-of-2025-trade-deadline
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I read that article and it provided no new information or insights. Just a bunch of uninformed guessing.
I don’t see the Phillies trading Ranger this year regardless of how well Painter pitchers.
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It is so hard to get a base hit at the MLB level. Defenders are so good. Which is why MLB teams focus on power. Hit it out of the park and they can’t get you out.
But the opposite of that works too. Elite speed with great contact ability works at the MLB level too. This is a great highlight reel imo. Shows all the tools I want to see. I am higher on Crawford than I have ever been. If he can stay in CF and Keith Laws’ defense grade proves true then this is a 4-6 WAR player.
https://x.com/IronPigs/status/1919769216921772149
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I’m generally high on Crawford but my cautionary comp would be Billy Hamilton who had a very similar AA season at age of 21. He didn’t hit for the same average in AAA that Crawford is doing now but he needs to have a full season to see if his results are sustainable.
Crawford appears to have a little more power which is a positive.
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Another comp would be Juan Pierre who had a minor league career slash of .331/.379/.393. Here’s Crawford’s slash: .317/.374/.439.
Crawford is taller and bigger than Pierre, so the hope is that he fills out more.
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Could a Crawford comp be his dad? Justin actually has slightly better stats than his dad did in the minors. That would play just fine in my eyes.
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It shows bloodlines and pedigree, and they are both swift outfielders, but have a completely different body type. I think the Dad comps are not all that spot on here, but they probably also do show some athleticism that is shared.
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Interesting counterpoint. Billy had a 2.7 fWAR season and a 3.7 fWAR season, but overall a pretty mediocre career.
Here’s a follow up, Billy’s ground ball rate for his career was only 42%. He had a 35% fly ball rate.
I have been saying for a while, that Crawford’s ground ball rate isn’t a red flag. on the contrary, it is a positive. The BABIP for a ground ball is higher than that for a fly ball across the majors. For a player with elite speed it is even higher.
Line drives always have the best BABIP, but for a player with 80 grade speed you want any non-line drive to be a ground ball. a perfect hitting season for Crawford would be 25% LD rate and 75% ground ball rate. If he could do 8-10% walk rate that would be an all star profile for a guy like Crawford.
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The hope is for a Michael Bourn-like outcome. I’m not down on Crawford but still want to see how that swing and approach play with big league pitching (the swing and the way he hits balls is odd – you just don’t see a lot of successful big league players who hit the ball like that – not that it can’t be done, but it’s very unorthodox). I’m just not sure. The defense is a big thing too and is great to hear. A cheap 4 WAR player would be a very helpful thing.
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Only time and body maturation will tell but it is quite encouraging to have a pedigree 1st rounder at age 21 in AAA doing what he is doing. 325/390/811 OPS.
I get the GB rate but when you see some of the LD lazers he sprays around the field I think you can project that there is more of that to come as his confidence grows.
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Bourn is an interesting comp. from 2009-2012 (his age 26-29 seasons) he had 18.1 fWAR. an average of 4.5 fWAR per season.
Interestingly Bourn ha a career ground ball rate of 54% and a BABIP of .339. Elite speed guys need to hit it on the ground. Hitting it in the air, if it is not a line drive is a bad outcome for an elite speed guy.
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A little over a month in we hold the 3rd WC spot. The Giants the 2nd and the Friars the 1st. I suspect when its all said and done we either win the East or grab the 1st or 2nd WC.
Around the league some interesting things are happening. The Tigers are storming right now with a +63 Run Diff which leads all of baseball. Behind Skubel and Mize they are formidable.
The Padres play hard nosed baseball, I really like Mike Shildt as a manager. Imagine having to manage in a division with that kind of payroll disparity $331 to $210.
Speaking of payroll disparity the Dodgers $331 playing a $68 Marlins team. That’s a dollar ratio of 4.87 LOL.
The Orioles OTOH are sinking like the Titanic. What a waste of a good young core. I thought new ownership there would loosen up the purse strings to allow them to add the pitching that they desperately needed. They did absolutely nothing to replace Santander and Burnes.
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The Orioles should be among the best teams in baseball and they are a disaster. Incredible.
By the way, the Phillies are on pace to win 92-93 games. They are exactly who we thought they were.
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The Orioles cheaped out. They only have 1 short term contract and it’s Tyler O’Neill (total $33M).
I understand letting Santander go because I think they have enough hitting. But you can never have enough pitching and letting Burnes walk was a mistake. And it’s not like their pitching was that great last year either. The Orioles have enough prospects/young players to go after almost any pitcher they want. They should have went after Garrett Crochet. If I was an Orioles fan, I would be pissed.
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DMAR…Orioles, just a natural evolution of a younger based team. Once they straighten out their pitching they should turn it around….probably not this year however. Losing Grayson Rod, and Corbin B. to free agency has hurt them. This year may be a learning lesson for their GM on an abundance and depth of starting pitching. He may be thinking now about the trade pf Johnson and Chase
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I disagree. What I think we are seeing is a new ownership group that doesn’t know what the hell it is doing and is probably cheap, sadly for Orioles fans. They had everything teed up perfectly to add FA talent to a young roster and instead, they went to the bargain bin to resuscitate guys like Kyle Gibson. Their starting pitching is horrible. They also didn’t retain the guy who made all of those amazing draft picks, which is incomprehensible – like the Eagles parting with Roseman. Right now it looks like the next era of Orioles baseball will look more like the Angelos era than anyone would like. We are lucky Phillies fans – our owner really wants to win and commits money to do so. The Orioles, I fear, are lost again.
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Agree they appear to be a bad combination of both incompetent and cheap.
They have 3 contracts over $10 million and only one of them goes beyond 2025. They have $17.5 million committed total for 2026. Their young stars are all still in arbitration or pre-arb.
They should have been all over the FA market for starting pitching, or if they didn’t want to go that route, trading from their deep prospect pool to get top-end starters (Luzardo would have been a prime target).
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Don’t look now, but the Mets have lost 6 of 10 and Phillies are only 2 back. Dodgers starting pitching is problematic, to say the least.
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Considering how old the Dodgers are, it’s shocking that their hitting has held up this long. But Teoscar is now injured and Muncy is starting to decline.
The pitching side is a disaster. Snell and Glasnow are hurt again. Dustin May hasn’t developed possibly due to all his previous injuries. Sasaki is more down than up. Th Dodgers have 1 healthy good pitcher and that’s Yamamoto.
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Dodgers…one starter under 30….Pages. Most of all the utility guys also 30 and older. And Freddie these last few years has come down with extended IL time. They may limp into the play-offs this season.
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New Baseball America ratings on top 100 prospects just out :
Painter # 14 ; Miller # 48 ; Tait # 67 Crawford # 88
Kemp nor Aroon Escobar not in the list
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Kemp doesn’t surprise me – he’s the type of guy who gets no love in the modern prospects era. As for Escobar, it’s probably just a matter of time if he continues with his current trajectory. Ranking is high for Tait and low for Crawford, but overall sounds about right.
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I think Painter is to high on that list, should be top 10, pushing towards #5-8
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Once you get in the top 15 or so, it’s quibbling, especially since his lower placement relates more to his injury history which will always be a concern. He’s up there – it’s all good.
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RU….no matter what the peripheral metrics are with Crawford….apparently some scouts and the BA analyst, for whatever reasons, have their concerns with his offense…..and my guess, it is primarily is his higher GB%…and why he has not been able to significantly reduce it down to league average. Of course they may have other reasons for letting him slip down the board but I do not see anything else. His tools , outside of power, are plus.
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It’s fun to debate these lists, but in the end, it doesn’t matter. Once Crawford, Kemp, Painter make it to the show, it’ll be up to them to show that they belong.
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Another amusing thing about this list is – Starlyn Cabo who was traded for Luzardo never even made the list – and was formerly a low “80’s” to mid “70’s” prospect as I recall……at that time – that was a very aggressive evaluation.
I believe he is hurt and not hitting very well ?
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Phila Inquirer with a really interesting piece today on how Escobar is conquering the mental side of the game, to go along with his physical maturation.
FWIW the Inquirer is available as part of Apple News+, which is really worth it if you have had subscriptions to lots of different publications.
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Another young Ven Latin player who may start his ascension to on-the -radar prospect status very soon is 19-year old OFer Victor Cardoza…..good power and good speed. Currently he is on the XST team at the complex…..maybe we can see him, near the end of the season, get some ABs with the Threshers.
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Hoskins was just a little under 25 when he came up to the Phillies. Kemp will be 26 in a few months if he makes the jump. I don’t believe the team will bring him up if he can’t play fulltime similar to the case of Hoskins.
I’m probably totally wrong but I think the Phillies are showcasing Suarez. They’d like for him to do well the next half dozen times out so they can trade him and put Walker back in the rotation until (if/when) Painter is ready.
Walker has done okay thus far and the organization would like nothing more than to have Walker continue to do pretty well and keep him mostly to help the team but also to justify the signing and to save face and stretch out his existence into next season.
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I think the Phillies have enough starting depth at Lehigh (Abel and others) to allow the Phillies to trade Suarez. However, the Phillies have never been that team to trade an asset at the deadline.
They traded Dominguez and Soto last year but you can argue that both of them needed a change of scenery. They both were done in Philadelphia.
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Trading Suarez at the deadline….assume if it happens…he will go to an AL contending team. He would be a two month rental, so the return will probably only be a second-tier reliever or one prospect from a team’s 30. More than likely in the 10 thru 15 range on their top 30 board.
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Tomorrow will be interesting with Painter getting the start for Lehigh Valley. If he appears to be on track for a Julyish call-up, then it’s hard to see how the Phils retain a slot for Suarez.
Wheeler-Luzardo-Nola-Sanchez-Painter-Walker
Alvarado-Strahm-Romano-Kerkering-Ross-Banks– Suarez/Ruiz/Hernandez/Abel/Johnson
Phils need to be all in on a proven high leverage reliever
Kemp starting in LF tonight. Maybe the Phils are contemplating a platoon in LF on the big team before too long. Kemp vs. Wilson?
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Have to laugh that the guy everyone wanted the team to DFA all winter because he was done is now the guy that supposedly makes Ranger expendable.
Phillies have to expect they will need 7 starters at some point. Ranger, Luzardo, Painter, and Walker combined can get them the 360 innings they will need from the 4th/5th starters. None of them individually are giving them 180 innings.
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If Suarez can get back to 80 % or better of what he was in the front half of ’24, he’s a keeper even if it’s in a 6-man rotation. But he’s no innings eater.
Luzardo, despite his history, is a better bet for 180 innings then Sanchez, with his history, was in ’24.
Painter and perhaps Abel, are x-factors. A ’60 %’ Suarez won’t cut it or deserve a spot in Philly’s rotation and wouldn’t factor in the play-offs.
Walker isn’t really the issue for Suarez; it’s everyone else.
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Jim Bowden trade idea:
Phillies acquire RHP Ryan Helsley from Cardinals for RHP Mick Abel
Dave Dombrowski told me during an interview on the “Front Office Show” on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM that the Philadelphia Phillies have a need on the right side of the bullpen. The president of baseball operations made it clear that he views it as their biggest need. Their top righty reliever options, Jordan Romano and Orion Kerkering, have gotten off to slow starts. I think their top target should be Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley, who is considered one of the best in the sport.
Helsley, an impending free agent, is not expected to re-sign with the Cardinals, who should deal him between now and the trade deadline. Dombrowski and Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak are two of the longest-tenured front office executives and have had a strong relationship for decades. So, how about a trade of Helsley for Abel straight up?
Abel, 23, was the No. 15 pick (and the first high school pitcher selected) in the 2020 draft. He’s been slow to develop, as it’s taken him a while to find command and control of his pitches. However, he’s off to a promising start this season with a 2.75 ERA over 39 1/3 innings at Triple A. He’s averaged 3.9 walks per nine innings this season after allowing 6.5 per nine last season. (He’s averaged 5.2 per nine in his minor-league career.)
Helsley, 30, is a two-time All-Star who last year led the majors in saves (49), topped the National League with 62 games finished and logged a 2.04 ERA. This season, he has a 3.75 ERA and ranks in the 97th percentile in fastball velocity.
For the Phillies to give up Abel in this deal, it’s only fair that they have a chance to extend Helsley at the time of the trade.
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Helsleys whip is a tough pill to swallow right now. Hope he doesn’t have the Rheal Cormier syndrome.
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…and he has a FIP over 4 with a BB/9 of 5.5…..we already have a few pitchers like that right now.
I see Hoffman blew it last night in Anaheim…so you can’t have everything you want.
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What’s impressive is that he gave up 3 runs on 3 hits with a K and BB on just 14 pitches.
That’s efficiency.
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IMO, Cardinals would need to add a prospect into the deal, besides Helsley,…a prospect who needs no 40 protection for a few years, so it would be an ‘A ‘ball prospect probably in their 10-15 range.
And for some, it would be another ‘Brown for Robertson’ deal.
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Not giving up Abel for Helsley and not looking to extend him if this do acquire him.
His numbers are regressing with his k-rates steadily dropping from 13/9 in 2022 to 12.8, 10.7, and now 9 while his walk rate is also increasing.
He’s still a very good pitcher but appears to be heading in the wrong direction while Abel is trending up.
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I kind of lean that way also. These next two months will give a better line on Helsley.
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Are you the same Romus that comments on PHIHOCKEYNOW!
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I’d do it, especially if you can extended Helsley. Abel & Ranger are expendable because of Luzardo & Sanchez. Add in Painter, the team is good for a bit. Then it’s Chace & Johnson for your top arms in the system. There are a few good pitching FA coming up in the next couple of FA periods. Worth the gamble, unless you believe Abel has really turned the corner. he had a high ceiling. If so,maybe Chace gets the deal done with another top 8-15 prospect, SS Rincon
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Chace has to remain healthy…his velo tops at 93 now, so he is trying to work his way back. As the saying goes: TINSTAAPP.
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Seth Johnson bombed last night in his LV closer role
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Relievers will bomb. The question is how he bounces back from that or it happens too often. Is he the official closer?
Jeff Hoffman was looking like the best reliever in baseball and then he gave up 6 earned runs total in back to back appearances to the lowly Angels. His ERA jumped from 1.10 to to 4.24.
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Recognize that Tampa is not one of the better teams in baseball, but I thought we finally put a complete game on the field last night. Timely hitting, good pitching, a little small ball mixed with some long ball and good relief work. How about TW, 10 batters, 9 outs, 7Ks.😊
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Skeet…….TW has been a ‘good soldier’. When they were in the WS vs the Astros…..did not get into one game but did not complain, I am sure it stung, and he remained on the top step cheering the guys on.
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Taijuan looked great. He looked healthy, he had command of his pitches, and his velocity was up to 93. Maybe he will get some higher leverage innings, since it looks like Kerkering is in the 6-7th inning now.
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I heard something pretty interesting on the radio from Ricky Bo on why Kerkering might not be as effective as he was last year … or at least not going to “break out” this year as expected.
For those that missed it… Apparently Orion & Romano throw the same pitches. To compensate, and give teams a different look… they decided it was easier to convince a young talent than an old dog coming off injury to change his pitches. They tweaked Orion’s sweeper! 😳 into more of a slider. Basically what it did per Ricky Bo was have such a drastic mph between his reworked sweeper and FB, that the FB is now very recognizable to hitters, so they can now sit on it easier. Ricky Bo said this happened to him on another team and his ERA ballooned. You need conviction when throwing those high leverage innnings. He said he expects Kerkering to abandoned the tweak. If thats the case, I’d expect him to get better as the season goes on. reassess him after the Allstar break. As for Romano, his mph is picking up, so hopefully that helps his case.
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I heard something pretty interesting on the radio from Ricky Bo on why Kerkering might not be as effective as he was last year … or at least not going to “break out” this year as expected.
For those that missed it… Apparently Orion & Romano throw the same pitches. To compensate, and give teams a different look… they decided it was easier to convince a young talent than an old dog coming off injury to change his pitches. They tweaked Orion’s sweeper! 😳 into more of a slider. Basically what it did per Ricky Bo was have such a drastic mph between his reworked sweeper and FB, that the FB is now very recognizable to hitters, so they can now sit on it easier. Ricky Bo said this happened to him on another team and his ERA ballooned. You need conviction when throwing those high leverage innnings. He said he expects Kerkering to abandoned the tweak. If thats the case, I’d expect him to get better as the season goes on. reassess him after the Allstar break. As for Romano, his mph is picking up, so hopefully that helps his case.
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Once upon a time great pitching could compensate for a lack luster offense but I don’t think that is the case these days.
Guys are throwing harder for shorter stints rarely completing 6 and 7 innings and the ripple effect of that is bullpens that get taxed sooner rather than later in seasons.
When you look to October November baseball I think its the teams that were able to reduce the number of high leverage innings their BPs had to throw because they had nice leads going through a good portion of their games.
Like last night…
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It’s also more about going a 3rd time through the batting order. Analytics say that the starting pitchers are less effective and they keep a close eye on that.
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JC Responds to his critics https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/phillies-star-prospect-justin-crawford-responds-to-his-critics/ar-AA1Emm0a?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=63123d344495462aaf0b1da0ee1c400d&ei=34
Makes sense to me. The only question left is when to give him his shot to prove it.
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2 deals I would do if linked, at the trade deadline:
To the Cardinals RHP, Mic Abel
to the Phils RHP Ryan Helsley (extended)
to the Orioles LHP Ranger Suarez + a non-top 10 prospect(see below)
to the Phils C, Samuel Basallo
There will be a guaranteed market for Helsley who is likely to be the best back end reliever on the market this time around. The Phils have signaled their major need and won’t get away on the cheap. Abel is not considered a top 100 prospect ioverall and who can say the Cardinals can’t get a top 75-100 prospect from a team all in? The Phils deferred maintenance on their BP this past off-season and such maintenance never comes cheap.
Helsley creates a glut if Painter comes up in July. Ranger wants to start and Baltimore desperately needs help in the rotation. Basallo is a top prospect who is blocked in Baltimore. He’s not having a sensational AAA season but he is team-controlled and presumably close to MLB-ready. Ranger is a starting pitcher in the O’s price range if they extend him.
The O’s would need more than a rental back for Basallo so the Phils protect their top tier prospects (Painter, Miller,Crawford, Escobar, Kemp, Tait, Burkholder ?) and offer one prospect from the rest.
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It’s no secret that the Orioles need pitching and Basallo is definitely blocked at catcher. There’s talk that Basallo can play 1B but his true value is at catcher. Basallo is 6’4″ so not sure if he can stick at catcher.
If the Phillies feel that Basallo can stay at catcher, I would go Mick Abel, Jean Cabrera and another lower tier prospect.
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It like the train of thought, but that’s their NUmber 1 prospect. Im guessing they’d want more, but a deal should be doable. Teams know each other as well. Send Chace back lol. Ranger should be one of the top arms available, if not the top arm. Valdez from the Astros would top him if the Astros are out to the hunt, if not the SD could revamp their pipeline with Cease & King available.
In any case.. the Phillies need to trade Ranger at the deadline.Foregone conclusion at this point. They have moves to make this year,or at least respectable ammo outside their top prospects … Hallelujah!!!
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Everybody else knows that Basallo is blocked. So if the Orioles want to get value for him, they need to trade him this year. He’s already played 38 games at AAA across 2 seasons. I don’t think the Orioles want him to spend 2026 at AAA. He’s their greatest trade chip to solve their starting rotation woes.
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It like the train of thought, but that’s their NUmber 1 prospect. Im guessing they’d want more, but a deal should be doable. Teams know each other as well. Send Chace back lol. Ranger should be one of the top arms available, if not the top arm. Valdez from the Astros would top him if the Astros are out to the hunt, if not the SD could revamp their pipeline with Cease & King available.
In any case.. the Phillies need to trade Ranger at the deadline.Foregone conclusion at this point. They have moves to make this year,or at least respectable ammo outside their top prospects … Hallelujah!!!
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It like the train of thought, but that’s their NUmber 1 prospect. Im guessing they’d want more, but a deal should be doable. Teams know each other as well. Send Chace back lol. Ranger should be one of the top arms available, if not the top arm. Valdez from the Astros would top him if the Astros are out to the hunt, if not the SD could revamp their pipeline with Cease & King available.
In any case.. the Phillies need to trade Ranger at the deadline.Foregone conclusion at this point. They have moves to make this year,or at least respectable ammo outside their top prospects … Hallelujah!!!
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Trading for a relief pitcher in the midst of a bad year will only make the fan base that much angrier.
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IMO Helsey is on the decline and I still remember his appearance vs Phils in 22 WC round. That is a deal that makes sense on several levels though.
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Tac# – I didn’t get all of that. Can you send it one more time?
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sure no problem … i meant to send it 5 times but word press maxed me out at 3!
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Word press is killing the volume of the thread, if it keeps repeating comments.
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I’m surprised you are still Tac3 ……. Oops, maybe I shouldn’t have said that.🤭
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If you want to talk about a joke organization, it’s the Pirates. They just fired their manager because they are on a 7 game skid. But the Pirates are 26th in payroll and Bubba Chandler is still in AAA. They still have Falter in their starting rotation and they tried to convert Mlodzinski from a reliever to a starter, even though they have Chandler. They have a 37 year old Tommy Pham in LF. The fans should demand that the owner sell the team.
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You can watch Andrew Painter’s AAA debut tonight for free on MLB.com or Milb.
https://www.mlb.com/phillies/news/watch-minor-league-baseball-games-for-free-2025?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
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In the last two games, Otto Kemp went 1-4 with 3 Ks and 1-5 with a golden sombrero. Let’s wait a bit before we anoint him.
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Casty struck out 5 times in one game on April 12, 2025. In the pitch tracking era he struck out in the same quadrant all 5 times. If the big 💰 guys can do it …….. hey bring him up!
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Actually 4/11/25, but he shares the distinction with 12 other Phillies.😉
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So both Schwarber and Realmuto are FAs after this season. So what’s the likely scenario here? Re-sign Schwarber and let Realmuto walk? I doubt the Phillies can sign both.
My buddy, the Blue Jays fan, gave an interesting trade proposition: Sanchez and a non Painter prospect for Adley Rutschman in the offseason.
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For a top 3 catcher on the upside? I think the conversation starts with Luzardo or some 3rd team’s projectable #2 starter, which Sanchez isn’t.
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For me personally I don’t invest big in $$$ or prospects for catchers. I try drafting a decent amount of them year to year and hope one of them makes it. Or I find a decent catch and throw vet who’s cheap.
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I disagree in general and in this specific case. I can’t think of a better use of resources than for a highly-rated catching prospect, not a draft prospect but a guy promoted to AAA by age 20.
It changes the entire conversation as we watch our All Star caliber catcher start to age out. A low cost replacement for Realmuto frees up money that, who knows, might make it more likely that the Phils can afford to re-sign Schwarber.
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Looking at the daily box scores of the Phillies minor leagues one thing has become clear. We don’t have squat for pitching waiting in the wings. I know it’s early and some things can change. Some pitchers may possibly be working on certain pitches and disregarding the results. That being said, woof. Not good.
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Two players to keep an eye out for are RHPs Alex McFarlane and Casey Steward. They may be struggling a bit right now, but have good stuff and could emerge possibly later this season …both in AA after the all-star break..
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Steward strikes out like 2 per 9 innings. And it feels like we’ve been waiting for years on McFarlane(I know he had surgery).
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Except for Sandberg(The Phillies thought Ivan DeJesus was more important to the franchise), I don’t believe we’ve drafted and developed a hall of famer since Schmidt. That seems impossible. Feels like we’re always the bridesmaid. But I’ll keep rooting against my doctors wishes.
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Utley and Rollins are both currently on the ballot (Utley probably gets in 2-3 years from now). Hamels is a fringe case.
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Oh, and Scott Rolen is a recent inductee.
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Forgot about Rolen
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I don’t believe any are hall of famers. Love them all but if you have to debate over and over I don’t believe they are one. Just my opinion, not gospel.
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The only debate with Utley is if his peak was long enough or not. Quality-wise, his peak is one of the best ever for a 2B.
He has a higher fWAR than Sandberg. He’s 8th in HRs all time for 2B… and he has over 1,000 fewer PAs than everyone except Alfonso Soriano above him. He hit for average, walked a lot, didn’t strike out much, was one of the most effective base runners ever, and the fact that he didn’t win multiple Gold Gloves was criminal.
Utley was one of the rare true 5-tool players. There’s some what-if about his injuries, but even without going into what-ifs he was one of the most valuable 2B of all time, and the best Phillies 2B ever by a long shot.
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Look at the mighty Dodgers, over the last decade plus they ruled out there…homegrown Adrian Beltre was the last and only inductee of late….Kershaw will be next….and that will be it for awhile
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It’s really hard to put Rojas in the top tier of center fielders if he doesn’t know what a cut-off man is.
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I was wondering if his arm is still hurting from winter ball or if that was just a lousy throw last night. It isn’t the first throw from him that I had thoughts about.
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You hit the cutoff man if you’re trying to get a guy at the plate, unless you’re Yoenis Cespedes.
Rojas was airing it out trying to get him at 3B. I have no issue with that throw.
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IYO, does he have a good accurate, average, mediocre, or weak arm for a centerfielder. Is he still ailing from the spring?
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I don’t know if he’s still hurt. But from what I’ve seen in the past, he’s accurate and his arm strength is above average (but not elite). Players don’t normally run on Rojas unless they have above average or elite speed.
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Rainy day in my area, blah ……. so I’ll be the catalyst …….. was Painter’s performance last night ……
Great
Up to snuf
About par
Expected better
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Hard to give a short form description. I tuned in shortly after Painter departed after 3 innings. His leash was 4 innings/40 pitches and I guess he had 40 pitches. Back-to-back-to-back walks means you can’t give him highest marks. His catcher, Garrett Stubbs, seemed to delight that Painter pitched himself out of trouble and left the game unscored upon.
If Painter starts once a week at LV, that’s 7 more starts by July 1. I’ll be watching with interest if/how they ramp up his work with each outing. Maybe the Phils have in mind giving Painter no more than 5 innings of work in any outing throughout the remainder of this season.
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You can pretty much guarantee that when Painter starts in the bigs, he’ll be limited to 5 innings or 80 pitches. The problem now is that you’re asking the bullpen to cover 4 innings every time he starts. And that’s the best case scenario. Perhaps Taijuan will piggyback his starts.
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Abel could be in the mix before Painter gets the call up.
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Skeet…IMO, somewhere between ‘Up to snuf to About par’…the three BBs in the inning to load the bases, may have been a little of a new working pitch and/or an umpire impaired vision.
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Well, remember those umpires are training, so that they can miss calls when they arrive at the “Big Show” like the guy did last night!😉
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no, he just lost the strike zone after a good battle with Boston’s top prospect for the 1st walk.
It was a solid outing and I agree with Stubbs, it was good that he worked out of it without needing relief help.
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The Athletic article today has a picture of Painter in full stride, and it’s a very long stride indeed. That, combined with his height, means he’s releasing a fastball at 98 mph that must seem like it starts 2 feet from the hitter’s face. I can see where part of the Verlander comp come in: pure physical intimidation.
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I watched him on phone AP – he looked tired in his final inning – frustrated that he couldn’t hit his spots – and was off at that point. Took him almost 30 pitches to close out but as Athletic article sites it was a good outing from point that he had to deal with difficult spots. Frankly – I think Stubby behind the plate is an excellent tool to sharpen him. Stubby was calling off speed stuff to force him to be unpredictable to batter.
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I would love to see Thomson start an outfield of Marsh, Rojas and Kepler against a tough righty when it looks like runs could hard to come by. Playing Castellanos every game has not worked.
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The Phillies are paying him $20M to play every day. That’s just the way it goes.
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This just in from BA – with graduations, Aroon Escobar of the Phillies will immediately make the top 100. Article sites aspects of his hitting so far which are all exemplary – k rate ; walk rate ; power ; and ave exit vol etc. are among tops in the FSL and excellent for any minor leaguer.
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I wonder how the Phils compare Escobar and Kemp. Is Escobar their future second sacker? How about 3B?
If you have 3 top IF prospects, including two 20-year olds rated in baseball’s top 100, how do you sort that out? Is it crazy to think the Phils double jump Escobor to LV sometime this summer?
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Sort out the same way they did with Tigers’ current rated number 6 prospect….trade one pf them.
Incidentally, Tigers look to be building a very nice competitive team…..and their three best prospects are still waiting to come up….along with aforementioned 2B Hao-Yu Lee.
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There’s no need to sort it out right now. Out of the infield, the players with long term deals are Harper and Turner, and they both can move off their positions. So nobody is blocked in the infield. The only player that the Phillies will have to make a decision on is Kemp, since he’s at Lehigh and still ripping after 36 games. And even then, barring injuries, I don’t think the Phillies will do anything until the AS break.
At the minimum, Kemp will get his call up in September.
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“There’s no need to sort it out right now.”
True, but everything happening is now germane to a sorting out throughout this season and off-season. Which prospects are made available this time around and who is untouchable. How the team protects itself in the face of important expiring contracts.How the Phils navigate vis the luxury tax, What to do with an aging roster. What addition can add a spark? .
Anyone else pay attention to Nola losing coverage at first base in a foot race with a not particularly fast runner last night? Or Harper cadillacking it to first and getting thrown out on a passed ball third strike?
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First, the Phillies put themselves in this mess by giving out all these long term deals. But they have a chance to start moving away from this by letting Schwarber, Realmuto, Suarez walk. Yes, this will hurt but you need to make the hard decisions if you want to get younger. Look at what the Astros have done in the past. Heck, look at the SB champion Eagles.
The Phillies will not be making a splash at the trade deadline. Sure, they might pick up an expiring contract of a reliever but that’s it. And it won’t cost Painter, Miller, Escobar, Crawford. Abel is most likely to be traded. He’s a former top prospect who is close to making his debut.
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I don’t want to keep playing with your words but it will be a “splash” if they trade Ranger, who was seen as a Cy Young possibility this time a year ago. The big difference this year (compared to last year when no major deal occurred at the deadline) is that the Phils have prospects seemingly close to MLB ready.
Topper speaks often of “the back of he baseball card” as a suggestion that veteran players retain their value and as a justification to be deliberate. But all players decline eventually and lose their “back of the card” value. Will some of this get addressed before the off-season? It will be interesting to see.
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It would be surprising if the Phillies traded Suarez because they haven’t done that type of trade before. But even if they did that, what kind of return are you expecting? Suarez is headed into FA with Boras as his agent, and he now has a history with back issues. So anybody that trades for Suarez is getting a rental and you’re not entirely sure if he can stay healthy. So it’s highly unlikely that the Phillies will get a top 100 prospect back. Maybe you might get a prospect in the team 5-10 range? Is that the splash you’re looking for?
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Saw some highlights of Painter at Lehigh, his curveball looks plus already. The hype on him is going to be crazy once he makes his debut.
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Guru, as to Ranger, there’s likely a history that neither of us knows. By the time the Phils extended Sanchez, I’m guessing it’s likely they had tried to do the same with Ranger — without success — since they had more of a history with Suarez and he had a longer history of success.
So with Wheeler, Nola, Sanchez and the remnants of the Walker contract, the Phils dealt for Luzardo. With Painter coming, I think the Phils were telling you what you needed to know about Ranger’s future. As you pointed out, Ranger had retained Boras as his agent. So barring a real setback with Painter or a disabling injury to someone else, I think Ranger, if healthy, is gone at the deadline. He’d be gone by season’s endas a free agent.
I don’t think I’ve given the impression that Ranger will bring back a transformative return. Could be someone else on an expiring contract for the pen or it could be a prospect. I posed earlier a deal with the Orioles; a team sorely in need of starting pitching. And a team that can be priced out of the high end of the market, which Ranger does not occupy.
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You mean to create room for Painter by trading Ranger? Interesting. I’m sure Boras would be more agreeable to that than having his client slide into the bullpen.
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I do think that if the Phils had been successful in locking in Ranger around the time they extended Sanchez, the Phils would not have seen a need to trade for Luzardo.
Last year’s rotation plus Painter would carry the day. My hunch, worth nothing at all, is that they shopped for Luzardo once they realized Ranger would stick his toe in the free agent pool.
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Marc K.
· 19h 54m ago
Phillies’ 2024 trade deadline deals: one with disaster potential (George Klassen and Aldegheri to LAA for Carlos Estévez) and another with upside potential (Gregory Soto to O’s for Seth Johnson and Moisés Chace). What were your thoughts at the time, and at present?
Keith Law
· 19h 21m ago
STAFF
@Marc K. Disagree on disaster potential of the first deal … probably a reliever and a sixth starter, respectively. Loved the latter trade, Soto was a bad acquisition who never worked out, at worst that’s two better relievers than the guys they dealt to the Angels.
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Tad W.
· 19h 53m ago
Tim Elko and Otto Kemp are destroying AAA. Will they be fantasy relevant this year or in the future? What do you see?
Keith Law
· 19h 20m ago
STAFF
@Tad W. Kemp can’t hit breaking stuff at all … he may be an up-and-down guy who can bounce around for a while because he hits fastballs and has power. Elko’s power over hit and probably a DH. Don’t think he’s a regular either. I can’t speak to fantasy relevance, though.
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I think they should do their research before stating the young man can’t hit breaking balls :
Otto Kemp’s 48 hits :
Slider – 15
Four Seamer – 13
Change Up – 8
Sinker – 7
Curve – 3
Cutter – 1
Sweeper – 1
Steve Potter
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I appreciate your data. But MLB has a similar scouting report on Otto, “He can punish fastballs but has struggled more with softer stuff (40 percent miss rate against breaking balls and changeups last year, according to Synergy).”
https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/phillies/otto-kemp-805249
In my experience following prospects and opinions on this blog, when the scouts have a different take then the data, the scouts usually turn out right. Not 100% of the time. But a really high percentage.
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those reports are not written by scouts.
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https://x.com/Mitch_Rupert/status/1920996886841786750?t=ocE9ZvrhzXgCFb1WqDeKDQ&s=19
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The guy has some strength for sure…built like a football player. He has to be over 210 lbs…short and sturdy. He also seems to be able to run very well for a guy with that physic. His days at Clearwater are probably numbered and headed north to Jersey Shore soon.
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Abel 7 innings 1 R 1 ER 3 Hs 2 BB 9 Ks.
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😳….
O man… it’s getting real interesting around here
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Yes, it is ….. most interesting. Anxious to see how some of this plays out!
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Skeet….here are the 9 Ks from last night.
https://www.milb.com/video/mick-abel-s-nine-strikeouts-x4080?t=playerid-690953
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Abel looks ready. He was still throwing 94-95 in the 7th inning and it looked like he has confidence throwing all his pitches. And he did that against the WooSox, who has 2 top 10 prospects (Anthony, Mayer).
I can’t remember the last time the Phillies had 2 high impact arms at AAA waiting for an opportunity.
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With both Abel and Painter….the Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) opportunity, awards a team a high draft pick in the following year if a rookie-eligible prospect wins Rookie of the Year or finishes in the top three of MVP or Cy Young voting……the issue the Phillies will have, how do they get them up and and the necessary innings/time to qualify for the ROY award with a crowded rotation now! Then there is the service time cutoff date which some small market teams especially, like to utilize in order to keep their star player for that added year of arbitration prior to free agency. Not sure how Dave D. will handle these two pitching prospects.
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Last year was a disaster for Abel. He didn’t pitch very well, his command was off and he got sick I guess early in the year and his velocity was way, way down. Boy has he come back. The pitcher I saw in that video has an explosive, moving fastball and really solid curve. I think what’s going to happen is that the team is not going to sign Ranger and he’ll be a mercenary for the rest of this year, which is fine. They will tender him a contract only if they are fairly sure he declines the QO. If Walker pitches okay or well, I expect him to be moved at some point (if not this year, then next). If the Orioles hadn’t acted like complete idiots, Walker to the Orioles makes a ton of sense. As a result, the team goes into next year with Wheeler, Sanchez, Nola, Luzardo, and Painter with Abel riding as the 6th starter, knowing somebody pretty much always gets hurt. With the money saved, they can address other needs.
My view for this year is that if the team looks like they can make the playoffs, September should be about moving a few of those arms into the pen for a pennant run and not making a stupid overpay trade they probably don’t have to make. They only need 4 starters for the playoffs – the rest can slot into the bp – that’s what happens when you have the deepest rotation in baseball (they do – in theory the Dodgers do, but so many of those guys are always injured, so it’s not real depth).
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really excited that Abel is finding the consistency that he needs. Do we think he can help the team this year later even if the SP remains healthy?
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Problem right now is our starting pitchers are all turning in good performances. Ranger with a good show last night, Taijuan with several good starts, our starters are solid. Abel showing he may be ready ……. position players Kemp, Crawford and Arroyo showing well. Others ready for promotions from different levels ….. system in good shape! Hope DD doesn’t start reaching for the phone!
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I have a feeling people are going to be a little disappointed in Kemp if/when he gets his chance. I hope he crushes it but it appears from those that watch him that he has a very difficult time with the breaking ball. If true, that will only escalate when he hits the next level.
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Without giving Kemp a free pass I am going to say that he went through the minors so quickly over the last year that he probably has not seen his share of great breaking pitches and perhaps what he’s going through is an adjustment period. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he really develops in this regard.
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Well I have to believe his trade value has significantly gone up but it would be tough to give up home grown pitching talent.
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Abel seems to have turned the corner. Great to see.
Ryan Degges another good outing at Clearwater. 6 games pitched 0.50 ERA. Anything to see here??
Nori 4 hits and a HR
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Do you believe that Stubbs catching/mentoring Abel has anything to do with Abel’s renaissance?
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Hey, that’s a great question. Not sure, but he’s always been pretty good with pitchers.
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If you define a quality start as 6 innings and 3 or less earned runs then Nola has 3 this year, to go along with his propensity for the one big inning and multiple home runs. The party line was that he will get better in the warmer weather but what will he do in mid Red October and early November. I dont advocate trading him but he would bring a nice short term return and open another spot for one of the young guys
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Trading Nola: There are only a few teams …contenders no less…that could be in the market for him. His age and contract makes virtually all small market teams out of the mix….assuming nL teams are also out of the mix….comes down to the select few AL teams that can afford him and who are seriously thinking of winning the WS…Yankess, Astros, Mariners, Red Sox …do not think any teamin the AL Central willtouch him.
But bottom line……IMO, Phillies are not going to trade Nola no matter what. I thnk they will stick with him for remaining of his contract…unless he himself, asks to be moved.
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Unlike Harper and Turner, Nola’s contract does not include a no trade clause. However, Aaron Nola will soon have 10-5 rights.
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Nola is not going anywhere. Not anytime soon anyways. Maybe in the last year or 2 of his deal. He is a Philly lifer. I don’t understand the hate. The dude has produced in the playoffs. Who cares about how many hrs he gives up in the regular season.
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Pigs win again….shout-out 6-0. Seth Johnson pitched the 9th…2 Ks….velo 95-97.
https://www.milb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-ironpigs/2025/05/11/781143/final/summary/all?affiliateId=mlbcom-milb
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Crismatt with good 7.0 inning effort, fueled by the power hitting of the Club Mascot clad in red & white coveralls ….. go ahead name that guy!😄😅
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Romus, have we ever had this many guys stashed away?
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The farm does seem to be harvesting some quality prospects right now.
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The redundancy in this line up is suffocating. It’s absolutely baffling to watch every player in the line up swing at off speed stuff way off the plate and take fastballs right down the middle over and over. Its almost as if they were cloned.
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I kinda like Schwarber’s redundancy!
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He’s been great
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One quarter of the way through the season, on pace for 97 wins, 5th best record in all of baseball. And some super-interesting prospects in AAA (Painter, Abel, Crawford, maybe Kemp, possibly Seth Johnson). Hard to complain.
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Might want to read your way through the comments 🙂
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Gelb this morning on Bohm: only slugging .389 over the last 365 days. We might be seeing more of Sosa at 3B.
Me: I’m starting to think Bohm is non-tendered this offseason
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I could live with 10 hrs if he can hit 50 doubles. His defense improved but he is the odd man out. You have Sosa, Kemp, Miller, and apparently Escobar coming. Bohm could get traded at the deadline. Crazy… considering he was the 3rd pick overall. Drafting MLB players has the same success rate as the calling out the weather a week in advance
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In the 2018 draft, Bohm went #3 overall. Out of the top 10 picks, only 8 has seen time in the majors. Out of the 8 players, 6 are on their second team! This means that #1 overall Casey Mize and #3 Alec Bohm are still on the team that drafted them.
And if nobody wanted to trade for Bohm when he had 2 years of control left, not sure who wants to trade for him now when he has 1.5 years of control left with a .608 OPS.
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I think the Bohm trade info was very narrow in scope. If we are to believe they were only talking to Seattle for one of their controlled starting pitchers then its a leap to say nobody wanted him.
Mattingly or whomever should consider changing up the ask…
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Agree…..ask for a first round draft choice….oh…thats right MLB does not have that alternative. Maybe Commish and boys ought to work on that.
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If that’s the case, then DD is overvaluing his own players. There’s absolutely no way that Bohm is worth that much.
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Its too early for a lot of things but what the hay Schwarber has a chance at the NL MVP LOL
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Would he do 4 yrs $110? Would the Phillies?
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I think if Schwarber was willing to do that, the Phillies would be all over that.
The way he’s hitting, I think 4/120 is the floor. I think 5/150 is the more likely scenario.
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I love Kyle Schwarber, but giving a lumbering 33 YO DH 5 years and $150 milllion is crazy, But I suspect that’s about what will happen. DD always overpays and overextends. If he could even limit to 4 years, that would be good. The extra years is worse than the extra money.
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I’d shoot for three years $102M. The higher AAV may be what he would take.
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Kyle has likely put himself into $25+ AAV territory so it really becomes a question of years.
I’ve no idea what the open market will value a DH only type of player at. There really hasn’t been a DH like Kyle since Ortiz. Maybe Nelly Cruz.
Hopefully he wants to finish his career in Philly and he doesn’t want to get crazy. The Phillies don’t seem to like playing in deferred money territory but he may be the perfect case for it.
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