The Phillies ended a 5-game losing streak with two wins over the Chicago Cubs this past weekend. Luzardo and Nola pitched very well in both victories. They are off today and start a 6-game homestand with 3-game series against Washington and Arizona. The Diamondbacks’ series is important because they could be a team with whom the Phillies will be contesting a wild card berth. The Phillies trail the Mets by four games and are 2.5 games ahead of last place Atlanta and Miami.
I’m a little late with this discussion piece. Sorry, I got caught up in the DFA discussion.
Designated for Assignment versus Non-Tendered.
My understanding regarding any player who has reached arbitration is that, once he reaches the offseason, the decision is whether or not to tender a contract. Designation would not come into play.
Designation gives the team the option within seven days of trading the player or placing him on waivers. If a player clears waivers he can be outighted to the minor leagues.
The player who has been discussed in the previous week’s comment section entered the season with about 4 years and 106 days of service time. A player with five years of major league service time can reject an assignment to the minor leagues in favor of free agency.
If the designation were to occur during the regular season before the player reaches five years of service time, the rejection would not be in play. If, the player clears waivers he would be unconditionally released. In that case, the player can sign with any team for pro-rated league minimum and the Phillies would be on the hook for the remainder of his salary less the pro-rated amount of the league minimum salary.
This is your Phillies discussion.
Minor League News
Ranger Suarez had another strong outing on Sunday. Reached 74 pitches. He should reach Thomson’s started goal of 90 pitches in his next outing and then be ready for activation.
Andrew Painter looked good in his Thursday start for Clearwater. If his next start is with Clearwater, it will occur in Dunedin.
If the Phillies are indeed shopping for relief help from outside the organization, teams will likely start by asking for Painter, Crawford, or Miller. Actual prospect cost after turning those “asks” down will likely be from among Rincones, Tait, Abel, Escobar. This is the cost of not signing replacement arms during the offseason. I’ve read the articles where the Phillies made competitive offers, but I also read the Gelb article which dug deeper into the offers. This is a bed of their own making and the cost to correct will probably be painful.
Important Dates
- April 4, 2025: MiLB roster limits decrease from 175 to 165 players
- April 4, 2025: MLB optioned players begin counting against player limits
- April 7. 2025: Start of XST
- April 14, 2025: First XST game
- May 2, 2025: Last XST game
- May 3, 2025: Opening of FCL season, Phillies host Blue Jays
- July 24, 2025: End of FCL regular season
- July 26, 2025: One-game FCL semi-final
- July 27-29: Best of three FCL finals
- July 31, 2025: MLB trade deadline at 6:00 P.M. EST
- Note: These dates will be used unless/until notified differently.
Transactions
April 2025
4/26/2025 – Phillies traded 2B Kody Clemens to Minnesota for cash
4/26/2025 – Jersey Shore activated RHP Micah Ottenbreit from the 7-day IL
4/26/2025 – OF Griffin Burkholder assigned to Clearwater from FCL Phillies
4/26/2025 – Clearwater transferred RHP Ryan Degges to the Development List
4/24/2025 – Phillies sent CF Brandon Marsh on a rehab assignment to Lehigh Valley
4/24/2025 – OF Joel Dragoo assigned to Clearwater from Jersey Shore
4/24/2025 – Clearwater transferred RHP Enrique Segura to the Development List
4/23/2025 – Phillies activated LF Weston Wilson from the 10-day IL
4/23/2025 – Phillies designated 2B Kody Clemens for assignment
4/22/2025 – Phillies sent LHP Ranger Suárez on a rehab assignment to Lehigh Valley
4/22/2025 – OF Cade Fergus assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading
4/22/2025 – RHP Andrew Baker assigned to Reading from Jersey Shore
4/22/2025 – C Colton Bender assigned to Reading from Lehigh Valley
4/22/2025 – Jersey Shore sent LHP Erubiel Armenta on a rehab assignment to Clearwater
4/22/2025 – Clearwater activated LHP Kevin Warunek from the 7-day IL
4/22/2025 – C Yhoan Escalona assigned to Clearwater from DSL Phillies White
4/22/2025 – LHP Raymon Rosario assigned to FCL Phillies from Clearwater
4/21/2025 – Reading placed RHP Griff McGarry on the 7-day IL
Phuture Phillies 
I’d like to see a little more of him and I really want to see what he does in high A ball (I won’t have too wait long), but Aroon Escobar might be the second best prospect in this organization.
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I agree, and its going to stink when hes traded for Kenley Jansen
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A bit confused… and seemingly a poor use of assets from the FO.
If the Phillies weren’t/didnt want to sign a FA due to the CBT doubling the cost, then why can they add during the season?
The logical response is … “because the trade is for a short term finanical commitment” That now costs us double their salary & prospect capital
its tough.
The team should do a youth infusion now, and see if its even neccessary to trade such prospects away for bullpen help. Put Ranger & Johnson in the pen now. Promote Kemp, let him play everyday. Harper to RF or Turner to LF to make it happen.
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Also … I hope Sosa is working hard on learning the OF.. that could alter the season for the better. He doenst need to be Rojas out there, but if he can be Marsh… with the glove. Will take it
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Sosa is a super-sub. Kind of like Ben Zobrist was with the Cubs, although probably not as high caliber. Hes a great player and any team would be lucky to have him, but I also think that this is what he is and he should not be playing every day. Every year he has a few torrid streaks and we have this discussion about how to get him in the lineup, but personally I think thats the best way for him to be exposed. I love him to death as the super utility guy, but would not like him as an everyday player. Hes old enough that I dont believe he’s suddenly become a different player and is now a starter on a competitor.
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Jordan Romano seems to think he may be coming around as the pitcher he once was a few years back……Phillies sure hope so, they need him to.
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I agree with Jim here. To get any legit OF help or upper end reliever is going to hurt prospect wise pretty badly. Painter, Crawford and miller should not be moved for anything other than a controllable young player (Painter is probably untouchable). However, to get legit help we probably could lose two of Chace, Tait, Escobar, rincones etc. Whereas, Hoffman would have just cost money. I do think we have to get an OF in July if they are serious at all about this season.
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As others have noted – there is no way I trade Aroon Escobar for anything ! After Painter he may be the best part of the future !
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I think keeping Otto Kemp in AAA is negligence at this point. The dude is on fire, bring him up! I don’t need to see any more of Joe Ross either. AAA has a lot of pen arms who have been real good; would really like to start seeing some of them get a chance. I believe a healthy MLB environment is one where players are not comfortable, and I think the Phillies need to start having this mindset. Obviously, Harper can go 0 for 50 and hes not going anywhere, but way too many players are being given too long of a leash. If guys arent doing their job, lets see if some of the younger guys can.
Also, is Cade Fergus something? He was never on my radar at all but hes ripping the ball in AAA. And yes I know that my post is all “this guy is good in AAA, lets give him a shot” and i know that AAA success doesnt always lead to big league success, i just want to see what some of these guys have. There are just a few too many players currently on the big league roster who I dont believe have any business on a MLB roster for a team with championship aspirations
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Cade Fergus has also struck out in 46% of his PAs between Reading and LHV this year- probably not a recommendation for readiness to face MLB pitching.
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Great point, I was genuinely asking since i dont look at all the stats, just mostly game recaps. Yeah, that wont play in the bigs.
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Kemp needs to play LF every day in LHV, that is malpractice. There is nowhere in the ML lineup foir him to play/bat in the infield. Sosa isnt getting enough bats right now. Fergus has tremendous power but Ks way too much to ever be a ML. I could see him one day take a chance in the far east and possibly have success there.
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If there’s going to be changes, it won’t be across the board changes.
Kepler is starting to heat up, so LF is his for now.
The likely changes will be at CF (Crawford) and 3B (Kemp) if the Phillies don’t like the production from the current placeholders.
Carlos Hernandez is likely out once Suarez pushes Taijuan to the bullpen. I think Jose Ruiz is in more danger because his salary is lower than Joe Ross. Lehigh has a bunch of relievers who can take Ruiz’s spot.
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Joe Ross has pitched well especially compared to the guy they signed to more than double what they paid him(Romano). Hernandez will be DFA and then Ruiz is definitely the next up; we need someone in LHV to put up high k/IP #s; McMullen has been a disappointment and Lazar has been inconsistent. The ne extension should be burning up considering how poorly the pen has performed at the ML level.
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I’m curious to see if DD gets creative at the deadline. If Bohm and Marsh are better – would a team trade a reliever for one of them (with Kemp and Crawford as potential replacements this year?) but definitely with the thought that Crawford and Miller/Kemp are replacing them next year? Like, Bohm may not be a stud, but have you seen the Angels 3B depth chart? would they trade Kenley Jenson for 1 year of Bohm? Or depending on what they are looking at, do you trade Ranger for a reliever?
Also, the bullpen sans Alvarado are all below expectations at this point. If they get a little better, you still need arms but not neccesarily a #1 reliever. In the postseason, you are only running 4 SP’s anyway. So Wheeler, Luzardo, Nola, Sanchez. In a postseason series, Painter is potentially your RP stud. and who knows what Abel does out a the BP in a series?
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I was thinking Marsh to the Rox for Jake Bird.
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Well hopefully they don’t go that route again at the trade deadline that of giving up solid prospect capital for relief pitching help.
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Once Marsh gets healthy, I wonder how that will work out for him getting regular playing time. Kepler , if he continues to warm up, will have LF to his own……Marsh then goes to CF splitting with Rojas.
Personally I think they need to see what value Marsh will have in a trade. ILO, of top prospects being used as trade bait, maybe Marsh will bring back a legit reliever.
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Marsh is a 4th OF, strikes out at an extreme rate for a 12-15 HR hitter, poor defensive CF. Cannot hit LHP; teams willing to deal RP want nothing to do with a guy who is not making league minimum pre-arbitration. He is trending towards a non tenure in the offseason as his salary rises based on his years of service.
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Bohm is a home grown high draft pick, a right-handed bat in a lefty dominated lineup. He’s a decent contact bat who uses the whole field and has a history of driving in runs and performing well with RISP. His fielding has improved somewhat through hard work. As well as I know my name, I know that if Bohm picks up his game from a slow start (and a weak 2024 finish), he won’t be going anywhere at this year’s trade deadline..
He’s more valuable to the team if he can fulfill 80 % of expectations than as a trade chip. Those behind him on the organizational depth chart (Sosa, Kemp, even Miller) can play other positions.
I believe that organizational insiders believe that one thing that separates them from even the most avid of fans is knowing when to show loyalty and support and when to pull the plug on players who are not/not on the downhill slide based on age and declining skills.
It’s far easier for me to see them pulling the plug on Marsh — who has never been a pillar let alone an All Star — than Bohm. Marsh, Ranger and a (fill in the name) 2nd tier prospect I think will be the trade chips this time around.
Could this be Bohm’s last year in Philly? Could be. But no one’s handing the Phils a ready replacement and he stays so long as there is no successor waiting in the wings. If it’s Kemp, a change won’t happen soon and only if they’re convinced that Kemp is not a fill-in but, instead, an every day player.
The Marlins or Rays can play fast and loose with their pieces, gambling on a prospect and economizing at every turn. A team ‘all in’ like the Phils won’t play their cards or their chips in that way..
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Romus …. I see ya got over to Lehigh to singe their bats ….. wow .. get the married men off the field. Abel another good outing.
6 innings 4H 1R 1ER 2 BBs 6Ks.
Kemp 3 – 4, 2B 2 hrs 1BB
Mercado 2 HRs, Arroyo HR, Breaux HR. ….. only bottom of 7th, 18 runs in!
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Crawford 1 — 3 w/3 BBs
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So you want to be a big league closer? The Phillies needed Orion Kerkering to step up and he looked shellshocked out there. Don’t get me wrong, the defense did him no favours but he looks like he can’t handle the heat. The Phillies need to put him back into a 7th inning role, which unfortunately means that the Phillies have no choice but to turn to Romano as the setup guy.
I would argue that Kerkering not being able to pitch in high leverage situations is hurting the Phillies more. The Phillies expected him to step up into a high pressure role in 2025.
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There was a while there when the analytics folks insisted there was no difference whether a guy was closer or was pitching in earlier innings. They also said there was no reason to make someone a dedicated closer. Having watched baseball for long enough, and while the analytics information is often correct, they are wrong about these things. Many guys either can’t handle or need to get used to pitching at the end of the game. Yeah, it makes a difference. Also, having a closer, a guy who can handle that pressure reliably, makes a big difference. Is Kerkering choking? Can he get used to the pressure? Does he need another pitch? I don’t know, but his stuff really is as good or better than ever, but he’s not ready for that role right now. He just isn’t and we don’t know if he’ll ever be that guy.
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Kerkering’s issues are entire mental. He has a sweeper, high 90s 4 seam, mid-90s sinker. His arsenal is complete.
He looked like he didn’t want commit to his sweeper early on and he looked afraid to hang it. And of course, he shouldn’t be shaking off JT. He’s way too talented to be negative WAR right now.
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You could be right, I’m wondering if he has command issues as well (I haven’t really spent a lot of timing analyzing that). The stuff is definitely very good.
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I think too, that he has good stuff. FB has good velocity, but doesn’t seem like he wants to throw it as much as the breaking stuff. Is the FB too straight? Concur with shaking off JT ….. don’t think he’s earned that distinction yet.
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Kirk has the straightest fastball you can have and has a get me over slider that is easy to see it’s coming out of the hand
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A starter with a 4-pitch arsenal can play with his repertoire and figure out a glitch over the course of several innings.
A late inning reliever in Topper’s scheme is getting one inning to figure it out and keep a lid on. A reliever with a smaller arsenal and a primary pitch he’s not controlling on a given day is behind the 8-ball. If he looks uncomfortable in that situation, it’s understandable. Not necessarily uncomfortable or unequipped for a late inning role but uncomfortable like a soldier in a firefight without his best weapon.
A reliever logging 65-70 innings in a season it seems to me as time to adapt and refine his repertoire on the side. Some guys are relegated to the BP because 2 ‘plus pitches’ can’t be made to work 3 times or maybe 2 times through an order. But a guy — without a Mason Miller heater — does himself a disservice if he allows himself to be predictable in a tight spot. Cause tight spots are what high leverage relief is all about.
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I think his FB has plenty of movement and it’s mostly a command issue. But something about the slider makes it easier to hit than I think it should be and I think you’re onto something there – they know what pitch it is out of his hand. I think he needs another breaking pitch that makes it tougher to tell when the ball out of his hand is going to break like a slider or not. That slight moment of hesitation could be everything because the slider is not an unhittable pitch.
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Oh boy, good win but if Stott’s pinkie finger requires a long IL stint, you might see Otto Kemp getting the call.
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I really would like to see what Kemp can do, but not at the expense of Stott. He’s the hottest player we have right now and I believe he’s starting to come into his own.
In order to see Kemp someone’s got to go because he’s not on the 40 man roster. So anyone of Bohm, Sosa, Marsh, or Weston Wilson has to go if Kemp is on the roster. The rest are probably safe unless a block-buster trade.
My one hope is they don’t trade Kemp for some washed up reliever and he becomes a star somewhere else.
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Stevenson is also on the active and 40-man rosters. He may lift out easier than some of the others you list.
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Kemp and Stott are not vying for the same roster spots – it’s more like Kemp and Weston Wilson. But if Kemp keeps hitting like this, he needs a shot to hit in the majors. The dude is seriously raking.
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I agree. Especially after being baffled by a very mediocre pitcher last night.
I for one have always been a backer of Bohm, but now he seems to be a no power waste of a big body. Also he’s painfully slow on the basepaths. Maybe lower expectations in a trade.
Kemp might be the bat in the middle of the lineup they need, and from what I hear he has a solid glove. It’s a move that could turn out very bad or very good. I say do it. Their not going anywhere at this point.
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Buy low
to the Phils – Kyle Finnegan
to the Nats: a bag of balls
Finnegan needs a change of scenery. He’s no closer but Romano is highly doubtful and stock in Strahm and Kerkering is down. Who do you trust now for the Phils in a set-up role?
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The Phillies have no choice, the setup guy has to be Strahm or Romano. Even if the Phillies need to call up a reliever, that guy won’t be put into a setup role, at least not right away. Somebody has to step up and get the job done.
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Rochester is hoping they call Kemp up ASAP
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Remember last season when Trea Turner helped the Phillies get a win but seriously strained his hamstring and missed a boatload of games? I’m getting that feeling with Stott. Best case, strained ligament. Worst case, broken finger or torn ligament. I think we’ll know soon enough if somebody (likely Kemp) gets called up from Lehigh.
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Matt Gelb reports that Bryson Stott’s left hand is ok, no damage.
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Turner is often one of the worst shortstops I’ve seen in a long time. I increasingly get the sense that he simply doesn’t have the mental focus to play short. The articles on the game somehow manage to mention the bad throw, but neglect the he failed to step on second right before it.
I miss Jimmy Rollins more every year.
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He has aged ……but he was never really a Gold Glover down there at shortstop. One year he had a 10 DRS, as a Nat in 2018…basically he hovers around negative or 1 or 2. He has to be moved off the position and next year would be an opportune time to do that. Hope it is LF.
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Trea Turner was a decent SS because he had great range and a decent arm. But he was never known as a slick fielder and now he’s aging.
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Abel with another good start. Getting concerned that Miller is still under the Mendoza line.
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I think teams like that when prospects struggle in the minors….they want to see how they handle the adversity knowing full well once they reach the majors they will face the same slumps at some point. I think he eventually comes around.
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For some guys, that’s also the best way to get them to make changes that they might otherwise be resisting.
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I’m cautiously optimistic about Abel. He’s posting his lowest SO rate (9.4) but it’s above 9 which is perfectly acceptable. His walk rate has went down to 3.4 which is decent and it’s the lowest of his career.
At age 23, I have no issues with him spending the entire year at Lehigh.
Wheeler, Sanchez, Nola, Luzardo are locks for 2026. Painter and Abel battling it out for 1 starter job? It’s going to get interesting.
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cautiously optimistic I am ok with but at worst he reestablished himself as a prospect and valuable trade bait for Helsley or another high leverage reliever Before the start of the year his value was at its lowest
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Phil Maton has actually been better than Helsley. I’d be kicking the tires on him.
My next guy up after I DFA either Hernandez or Ruiz would be Castellano.
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My good friend pointed out the other day that both the 1980 and 2008 team had virtually the same record going into yesterday. File that in the FWIW category.
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Yes, but the 2008 Phillies had Brad Lidge, were tied for the 4th most saves at 47, and the 2nd fewest blown saves at 15 (the Yankees had a league low 9 blown saves, wow).
https://www.mlb.com/stats/team/pitching/saves/2008
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And the 80s’ team had Tugger (57 games, 20 saves and 92 innings pitched)…..he was more than a one inning pitcher like today’s relievers are for the most part.
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Phillies fans today would’ve hated McGraw. I believe he blew three saves alone in the NLCS.
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The Mets have a +55 Run Diff which is scary good and good for the best in the MLB.
What’s interesting is how Soto 250/374/772 OPS has effected both Lindor 302/364/885 OPS and Alonso 346/462/1.126 OPS
Our +1 Run Diff after 29 games is actually a feat considering how poorly the BP has performed.
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Someone who knows the minors better have a read on what’s up with Raylin Heredia? At one point, I feel like he was a prospect we were excited about, but then I read somewhere that he’s only in a part time role? I think it was Winkleman’s latest posts. The numbers are good for Jersey Shore. Is he an OF prospect or not?
There are lots of issues with the big club and they’ll need reinforcements. I really hope they don’t gut the farm.
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DeMartini, Hettiger and Heredia only players in today’s lineup with respectable batting averages. 12 ks as a team, 3 hits. Heredia with 3ks no hits.
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Saltiban and Rincon are really off to tough starts with Jersey Shore. It’s been a cold, windy, and somewhat wet April so hopefully they start heating up with the weather.
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You learn a lot from ST batting cage sessions, but what you cannot see is how players handle advanced pitching. I was blown away by Saltiban in ST and impressed with Rincon. But, clearly, both are having a tough time with high A pitching (which is pretty good as a rule). Hopefully Saltiban and figure it out, because his tools are very good.
I also commented on Fergus in ST. Nobody hit the ball as consistently hard or far as he did. As it turns out, I wasn’t imagining it. He obviously, has contact issues, which is not a good thing, but when he hits it, he crushes the ball. Two of his AAA homers had a 114+ MPH exit velocity. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber rarely hit a ball that hard. So, he’s a guy you need to keep an eye on. Like a guy who routinely throws 98 or 99 MPH, here’s always some value to someone with a power tool like that. You never know whether or how much he could develop.
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Not really, he has Kd throughout the minors at a higher than 40% level. Had same extreme K numbers at GW in college. He is someone that could have a career in the Japan/Korea, but not in ML.
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What was to like…..Alex McFarlane…pitched very well. 67% strikes of his 54 pitches….6Ks, 3Hs and one BB in 4 innings. He is coming around now.
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Trea Turner with another horrible play in the field. This is exhausting.
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After a month of Phillies baseball, here are the things I think I know or predict:
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Agreed on Nola. He is great at making adjustments. Painter per DD said no bullpen. He’s not built for that. He sounded “firm” but will see
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I agree on Painter during the regular season but if they make the playoffs and the big 4 of Wheeler, Nola, Luzardo, and Sanchez are healthy, I’m not sure Painter cracks the rotation, especially with his innings limit. Having said that, if he is this year’s Skenes, one of those 4 will be in the pen, probably Sanchez.
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Now if Rays’ Kevin Cash were the manager…..and he had Painter as a rookie with innings limitations…..he may very well just use him as an ‘opener’ for two innings at a time late in the season and eventually into the play-offs….especially if Painter was opening for lefty behind him.
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The least likely of these to happen by FAR is Topper using a defensive replacement for Trea.
For as awful as he can look out there, Trea has never been the worst defensive SS in the league. Meanwhile, we have Casty out here being two times worse than the next worst RF and even he never gets replaced at the end of games.
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Interesting observations – I agree with a bunch of this.
I don’t think Sosa will replace Turner defensively, even if he should. They won’t want to piss him off with that big contract so I don’t see that happening.
While I think they’ll trade for a closer, I’d be really surprised if they trade Bohm during this season. They think he’s a lot better than he actually is so I expect he’ll be here.
I don’t think this outfield has the potential to be anything more than average, but I would take average. What they need is for Bryce Harper to hit like Bryce Harper.
Hope Stott wins a GG. I think he’s a very good player; a winning player.
Agree the bullpen is entirely in flux – I think they’ll be better but have no idea how they’ll end the season. I think the BP cost them the WS in 2023 – no way they should have lost that Arizona series.
I think we all assume Painter is on the team, but let’s see what happens. I think they are too scared of screwing him up to put him in the BP and his stuff really is not quite where it was before he was injured, although it’s not terribly far off.
Not sure what happens with Kemp and when, but he sure looks like a future big leaguer and perhaps a very good one.
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The Phillies have traded for Rangers RHP Daniel Robert for RHP Enrique Segura. Robert has been option to AAA Lehigh Valley in the move.
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Did they have an open 40 man spot?
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Robert is now listed on the Phillies 40 man roster on their site.
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Yes, they had an open slot after the Clemens DFA/Trade
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https://www.nbcsportsphiladelphia.com/mlb/philadelphia-phillies/phillies-trade-reliever-daniel-robert-option-him-to-triple-a/663888/
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I find it impossible at the moment to assess any role the Phils will give to Painter this year It’s too hard to project what type of pitcher he can be in the near term. Once he’s appeared for a bit at LV, one can see what kind of piece he might be and how he fits in the 2025 puzzle.
In a similar vein, I can’t project what Marchan will be going forward. I wish Realmuto good health and success but if either is lacking,I see no reason why Marchan couldn’t push through the door and become an acceptable starter. We just haven’t seen enough to identify his ceiling — at least I haven’t.
I’m seeing improvement in Rojas. So much so that I don’t see a role for Marsh going forward beyond a bat coming off the bench. I’m ok with Rojas hitting righties. I’m definitely not ok with Marsh hitting lefties. Barring a debilitating injuryto Rojas, I don’t see an opportunity for Marsh to show he can be part of the plan going forward. It’s not hard seeing Marsh being moved at the deadline.
Kepler seems to be making more consistent hard contact. Barring an injury to Kepler, I don’t see a role for Marsh in LF.
Taijuan remains too expensive to be a useful trade chip. He’s likely here for the year.
Is Ranger intent on being a Phillie or being a starter? The Phils talk about a 6-man rotation but you know Wheeler will pitch on regular rest and use of the 5th/6th starters would suggest Suarez would do well to log 20/21 starts for the season. With that usage, he wouldn’t draw offers for top of the rotation money this off-season. So if you look at the current roster, he’s the pitcher I see most likely to be moved at the trade deadline.
Kemp? I think he’s competing for a 2026 roster spot — possibly as a starting 3B-man or a platoon in LF. His immediate competition is Weston Wilson but that’s for a very small role — the 25th/26th guy on the roster. It’s easy to make the case that Kemp is better served playing every day at LV.
Bohm? They won’t give him away but he’s playing for his future in Philly. The Phils apparently didn’t like the return offered for him this past off-season. Hard to say that he’s raised his value much and now he’s hitting 7th and 8th in the batting order. But he’s ‘paid for’ currently and will stay unless/until they find better.
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Give me Rojas over Marsh in CF 5 days a week and let Marsh play 1-2 days in LF/CF a week. Like Stubbs, enough with the clubhouse vibe guys. Its about Ws. Marsh is a 4th OF tops. Most players would never receive the extended playing time he has received the past 3+ years with the results. Striking out around 35% with 12-15 HR skills is something you dont see for 3 straight years. Plus playing below average CF defense.
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We have a really selective memory when it comes to Marsh and a ton of recency bias. I am not discounting the troubles he’s having now – they are really and problematic and I’m not sure . But Marsh played to a 3.4 and 3.1 WAR the last two years – that’s solid regular or better performance. So let’s not pretend he never did that.
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Well, where and when do you play Marsh and where does he hit in the order? I think you’re missing what the Phils are telling you. The player YOU see fills a current team need which the Phils set out by saying they’d try Marsh as an every day center fielder.
That ship has sailed. Kepler is a better choice in LF and Rojas looks better in CF. The left-handed Justin Crawford is coming along.
Amidst discussion of past history and recency bias, a good GM recognizes not only emerging but also declining assets. If the GM is smart, he figures out before the whole world that Marsh is a declining assets,a platoon corner outfielder you slot into the 8-hole in the batting order.. He’s not a prospect on the rise.
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facts
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Yeah, but that’s not what I was responding to. I agree it’s difficult to know what to do with him now, but your point was that he hasn’t been a good player the last three years. That’s simply false – he has been quite good up to this year.
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Perhaps Marsh needs a change of scenery.
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Marsh already got his change of scenery when he got traded to the Phillies. If he gets traded a second time, it’ll be for pennies on the dollar.
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Couldn’t get O’Hoppe back for Marsh, Realmuto, & Marchan
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I am not a slave to WAR
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He strikes out way too much for having such little power and is a bad CF, plus cannot hit LHP
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So Ranger gets his 2025 debut this weekend vs the DBacks…..hope he is on his game.
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Andrew Painter made what is likely his last start for Clearwater on Thursday. He pitched four innings but only threw 42 pitches. He was perfect thru three innings but got tagged for 3 runs in his fourth inning. Up to that point, he had thrown 4-seam fastballs on 2/3 of his pitches and as the first pitch to all 9 batters. Blue jays’ batters must have been set to ambush his first pitch fastballs as they homered on the first pitch of the inning, doubled on the second pitch of the inning and later homered on the first pitch of an at bat, all 4-seamers.
Painter’s line – 4.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 42 pitches, 31 strikes (73.8%)
He threw
28 4-seam, 91.3-98.3, 95.4 avg, 1 whiff
4 sliders, 82.8-87.9, 84.9 avg, 2 whiffs
10 cutters, 88.3-91.6, 89.6 avg, 2 whiffs
His 2 Ks were swinging, one on a slider and one on a cutter.
Two of his fastballs (91.3, 91.4) were low enough to look like Statcast misread cutters.
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Perhaps Jersey Shores’ Saltiban, Rincon and Mavis Graves have turned the corner…all with good games last night.
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I do not understand what is expected from Rincon. Yes, he is only 21, but except for a small sample at Jersey Shore in 2023 when he hit .258 (and hasn’t been able to repeat that bit of success in subsequent years), he hasn’t shown that he can hit minor league pitching. He does draw a lot of walks and that props up his OBP which in turn props up his OPS. I just don’t get what is expected from the kid.
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Year, Lev, PA, AB, R, H, HR, BB, SO, BA/OBP/SLG/OPS
2022, Rk, 42, 34, 7, 6, 2, 6, 7, .177/.317/.412/.729
2023, A+, 77, 62, 13, 16, 0, 9, 13, .258/.364/.323/.686
2023, A, 348, 276, 49, 63, 8, 59, 63, .228/.369/.370/.739
2024, A+, 140, 114, 25, 23, 2, 23, 44, .202/.336/.333/.669
2024, A, 8, 7, 1, 1, 0, 1, 2, .143/.250/.143/.393
2024, Fal, 73, 64, 10, 12, 0, 9, 15, .188/.288/.250/.538
2025, A+, 90, 74, 17, 16, 3, 15, 25, .216/.344/.392/.736
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Yeah….MLB analyst like his tools…they have ranked 14th on the Phillies Top 30. Though so far his metrics , vs. A pitching, do not jump out and scream. Just a guess, but think maybe the Marlins passed on him in favor of the higher ranked Caba in the Luzardo deal.
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Logan O’Hoppe is 25 this season. He’s having a nice season so far hitting 280 with 9 HRs and a 890 OPS.
He was worth far more than brother Marsh. Again not saying we should of held on to Logan but here we are. JT and Marsh are likely on their way out and he is about to be a solid performing backstop for the next 4-5 years.
D-Backs doing us a solid taking a series from the Mets…
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You win some, and you lose some, …..Marsh did hit a HR last night….maybe if healthy and improving at the plate, he could be moved at the deadline for pitching. For awhile, a few years back, he looked like the real deal.
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O’Hoppe has shown impressive power this year, possible red flag is that he is striking out at 35% and walking at only 4% this season…..those are some Moniak numbers
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Okay, so we are having a bunch of actually different discussions at the same time. Let me try to disaggregate them.
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I had no issues with the O’Hoppe trade. He was blocked and the Phillies needed to give value to get back value.
Marsh has been a good, not great player. I think after he posted a 3.4 WAR season at age 25, everybody thought he was going to be the breakout star that the Phillies have desperately been waiting for in the OF. It obviously hasn’t happened, and he has his flaws. He’s under arbitration for 2 more years so he’s not going anywhere, but he needs to get healthy and start producing. He’s looking like a platoon LF (with Otto Kemp?) in 2026.
I don’t understand the negativity towards Marsh. Even with Marsh’s slow start, he’s posted 6.5 WAR as a Phillie. Castellanos has posted 2.3 WAR and he’s banked $60M+ already from the Phillies.
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Agree completely!!!
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It’s a very weak oF, particularly for a contending team. No other contending team would swap out their OF for ours
In trading for Austin Hays at last year’s trade deadline, the Phils were telling you all you needed to know about how they felt about the need for an upgrade in LF. Hays didn’t do well against righties, was sick and injured.
Unaccountably, the Phils declared that Marsh was being slotted into an every day CF role this year. This is the root of my problem as it represents to me, malpractice in the front office.If I’m wrong I’ll admit it but I see no evidence that Marsh comes close to filling the bill as an every day CF’er for a contending team.
But it’s more than Marsh. Kepler looks like a platoon outfielder for a contending team. Castellanos continues to be overpaid for what he provides.
Dombrowski had a chance to improve this picture in the off-season and he blew it.
I’ll leave to another discussion what Dombrowski did or didn’t do to improve the bullpen.
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I’m not sure what you wanted the Phillies to do. They are now 4th in payroll and they clearly didn’t want to go over the next luxury tax threshold. They took a chance giving Kepler $10M, and Kepler has been decent for the Phillies. Kepler is not the issue in the Phillies OF.
The only way the Phillies would have made a splash was trading for Kyle Tucker. However, Tucker plays almost exclusively RF which is inhabited by Nick Castellanos. And the cost would likely have been Aiden Miller, Alec Bohm, and somebody like Jean Cabrera for 1 year of service. And you know that Tucker will likely get a $500M contract. I’ll pass on that.
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“…. And you know that Tucker will likely get a $500M contract. I’ll pass on that.”
….but wondering if l John Middleton will pass on that. He may jump right in on the 29-year old OFer.
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Remember when there was talk that the Phillies should trade for Mike Trout on this board? Glad that didn’t happen.
Mike Trout is a surefire future HOFer. He graciously moved over to RF from CF in the hope of staying healthy. Now he’s headed back to the IL with a bone bruise in his left knee. Before he got hurt, Trout had a .727 OPS which would be one of the lowest of his career. At age 33, his body is breaking down.
Unfortunately for the Angels, he’s still owed a whopping 5/185 (which is more than the entire value of Nola’s contract).
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The “trade for Trout” WIP narrative is low hanging fruit, least common denominator of baseball talk for a group of people who are completely naive too anything outside the Philly region.
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Guru, these are good points you raise.
In each of the last 2 off-seasons, the Phils have pulled what I’ll call “big money feints” . They entered the high stakes bidding for first Yamaamoto (’23) and then Soto (’24’). A signing of either would blow through the luxury tax 3rd tier. There’s an old joke I’ll borrow and analogize from here: “Madam, we’ve already established what kind of woman you are’ now we’re just haggling over the price.” A team prepared to ‘go big’ should have been prepared to ‘go small.’
Middleton told the media the Phils were not averse to spending money. Having painted themselves into a corner with some long, expensive contracts, the choice to me was to find a way out or to remain stranded in the corner, as key players age.
I never spoke out for Tucker for the very reasons you gave.I will admit that Pete Alonso is the only free agent linked to the Phils this off-season who is earning his contract. And I never pushed for Alonso for a variety of reasons.
I think not signing Kirby Yates on a 1-year deal was a false economy the Phils will pay for with substantial interest in some form by July 31.
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Considering how many teams are NOT spending money, Middleton is spending money since the Phillies are 4th in payroll. You could argue that the current Phillies payroll for this season (around $290M) is “stupid” money.
So people are unhappy that they are not spending more than the Mets and Dodgers?
The Phillies are spending money. Whether they are spending it correctly is another story.
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Show any proof that the Phillies didn’t sign Yates because they were unwilling to spend the money to do so. Otherwise, it’s pure conjecture based on nothing but you wanted them to sign Yates and inventing a reason they didn’t.
They were never getting Yamamoto and were not outbidding the Mets for Soto. No other big $$ FA’s made sense for what the teams needs were.
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Let me try it this way. The Phils signed Jordan Romano on a 1-year $8.5 M in December deal while Yates, Hoffman and Estevez were still on the market. That’s not conjecture. Amidst your own conjecture on Dombrowski, you can verify these pieces of information.
Hoffman and Estevez ended up getting multi-year deals which I guess the Phils weren’t up for. That’s defensible.
For$4.5 M more than the Phils paid for Romano who was coming backfrom injury, the Dodgers signed Yates on a one-year deal to be not a closer but a 3/4 in their bullpen. The Dodgers have a solid pen looking at it now while the Phils don’t. That’s my point and it wouldn’t have cost much then to make it competitive.
The Phils sat down at the high stakes table to await the bidding on Yamamoto (2023) and Soto (2024). I don’t know why. Maybe you do. A team dancing around the luxury tax threshold is not credible in high stakes bidding.
So I stand on the point a contending team for which standing tall was a feint should have been equipped to stand slightly taller and pay the luxury tax on the overage, if necessary. The luxury tax penalties aren’t assessed until December 2 so it’s not like there isn’t time to get into competitive balance/luxury tax compliance. Dombrowski knows this, it just seems as if he didn’t act on the knowledge he had.
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my 3 cents 🙂 …
FO did its job well enough, players didnt. Thats how I see it. The Dbacks series will haunt this fan base for a long time (aka the 93 team) if they don’t win one in in the next few years. The window should reopen with the infusion of Painter, Kemp, Crawford, and Miller.
Remember when we thought the FO woudl ship out all these prospects when DD was hired? How’d that workout? We basically lost O’Hoppe. Not bad. Just need the title to show for it in the next few years.
I took a peak at the FA classes in the next few years… NOTHING jumps out. Tucker is the best, and the Phillies don’t technically need Skubal or that pitcher the CWS traded. A lot of Meh in the upcoming classes… the Phils need to hit on these prospects!
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Garrett Crochet signed a 6/170 extension with Boston. Tarik Skubal is still under arbitration for 1 more year but his agent is Scott Boras. I’m fully expecting Skubal to eventually sign a $300M+ deal.
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Gelb reporting Painter’s next start will be Thursday in Lehigh (?!)
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I don’t know why Lehigh, but I can offer a few guesses.
Maybe they want him to face better hitters, and Lehigh is at home and Reading is in Binghamton.
Maybe they want to skip over the losing environments in Jersey Shore and Reading.
Maybe they want him close to Philadelphia so the brass can watch him.
Maybe they like the manager/pitching coach/catcher combination at Lehigh (Stubbs is at Lehigh).
Maybe July-ish has a chance to be June-ish, signaling that they are open to trading a rotation piece?
Painter has the stuff to pitch at Lehigh. Command might have been a concern, but it looks like he has that under control. Sequencing needs to be better. He started every hitter with a first-pitch 4-seasm fastball in Dunedin thru the first three innings. They hit the first two for a HR and double in the fourth. He switched over to cutters the next two hitters but when he threw a 4-seam to the start the next batter it was another HR. I have to believe a catcher wouldn’t let that happen at the higher levels.
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“Maybe July-ish has a chance to be June-ish, signaling that they are open to trading a rotation piece?”
…..the only one that comes to mind, once he starts pitching again and proves he is healthy with quality pitching again , is Ranger. Tai Walker’s contract hinders any trades.
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amaro on the radio said that one of the Phillies scouts told him Painter is not working on sequence. They are working on location and throwing multiple of the same pitches in a row. They aren’t at the point yet where they are trying to fool any hitters. They are extremely happy with Painters outings and control.
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Stevenson is playing like he doesn’t actually want to be on the MLB roster.
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probably won’t be by tomorrow. Sounds like Marsh is ready to return.
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I went to Reading tonight and I wish I could give you a good report, so I will …… they were able to put 9 players on the field! While there my mind wondered and I saw that Kemp was 4 — 5 with a bb. Crawford 2 — 5 with a bb. Lantigua 3 — 4 with a bb 2 2b & a HR. Marsh 2 — 4 with a bb. The pitching not so much with Zuniga the only one with clean work.
Earlier discussions suggested platooning Kemp when he comes up ……. really, what do you have to do to get a shot?
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To get a shot you have to be good AND be lucky. He’s got the good part down, now he’s just waiting for the luck.
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I think you are spot on!
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Miller has a 16 on base streak with Reading. Escobar had been on base every game until last night. That’s 19 game streak.
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I’m going to be away from my laptop for a while. I’ve created discussions for the next two weeks that are scheduled to publish at noon this Monday and next. I’ve used this feature before and it has worked. Just in case, I’ve edited the comments section on this discussion to stay open past the normal 7 days. Hopefully this works or this comments section will become cumbersome with a couple hundred comments or more.
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Aidan Miller’s last 12 games: 52 PA, .256/.385/.302, 8 K, 8 BB. Progress.
He got off to a slow start (first 8 games he had 15 K in 38 PA), but it’s his age 21 season in AA, I think he’s going to be fine.
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Kepler for $10M is fine. But here’s what I don’t get about the Phillies: they have an insane reluctance to platoon players. Here are Kepler’s 2025 splits:
vs RHP: .276/.375./.474 for an .849 OPS
vs LHP: .174/.208/.217 for a .426 OPS
Sure, 2025 is a small sample size. How about for his entire career:
vs RHP: .244/.328/.452 for a .780 OPS
vs LHP: .220/.290/.359 for a .649 OPS (over 1100 plate appearances vs LHP)
It reminds me of when the Angels had Pujols very late in his career, and he was terrible, and then the Dodgers signed him for league minimum and just batted him against LHP and he was good. Anyone could see that he no longer could hit RHP.
It’s the same problem with the Phillies’ plan to start Marsh everyday in CF. He can’t hit LHP at the major league level. Or, should I say, there is no evidence that he can hit LHP at the major league level (career .578 OPS against LHP)
Kepler should not start against LHP. Weston Wilson, Otto Kemp, whatever, but having a leftfielder with a career .649 OPS is not acceptable.
Think about this: the Phillies went into the season with a plan, a strategy, that any time the opponent threw a LHP, the Phils would play a left fielder with a .649 career OPS and a centerfielder with a .578 career OPS
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Yep, then he wouldn’t be able to hit HRs against LHPs like Castillo, huh?
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What? He didn’t homer against Castillo, he homered against Pfaadt, a righty.
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Oh, yesterday, yes, a homer off a leftie. Giving him one for the year, 28 for his career. Compared to the 138 he has hit off righties.
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Won the game didn’t it.
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Fun fact: Kyle Schwarber has 61 career homers against lefties. 43 of them have come since joining the Phillies in 2022.
He hit 18 in 584 PAs (1 in 32.4) before playing for us, and now he’s hit 43 in 782 (1 in 18.2).
It’s entirely possible Long (and the staff) is showing these guys something in their swing/stance to make them more effective against lefties. We’ll have to wait and see about Kepler, but this is now a pattern for Schwarber.
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Interesting article this morning, Kepler ask Long (a lefthander) to throw batting practice to him before that game.
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Skeet:
Sampling-MLB Averages..LHBs vs LHPs slash:
2008-2010……234/.312/.347
2017-2019……232/.306/.349
2020-2022……216/.302/.317
Pretty significant decline of late. But managers do bring in that LHP to face that LHB,…….and since 2020, also two more hitters regardless of what side of the plate they hit from. Kepler has seem to benefit from K Long’s suggestions.
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With Marsh and Kepler, I agree with your points about a team seemingly defying both performance history and a simple eye test. Thomson seems to want to give his bench just enough AB’s to avoid rust setting in.
Kemp is having the kind of season that forces executive decisions, maybe decisions the team didn’t anticipate having to make. Is Kemp a 3rd baseman or a left fielder? Can he contribute for the big team this year and, if so, how? As a platoon performer? And how do they prepare him for that role? Full-time at AAA or an early call-up, to do what?
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Historically, if the Phillies promote a top prospect NOT due to injury, they are there to stay. So If Kemp comes up, I believe the Phillies will try to give him regular ABs obviously at the expense of somebody else. Same with Crawford.
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Can’t find out if he’s a LF if he never plays there
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Kemp is a 3Ber……Phillies have tried him in LF this season on occasion at LHV. They have done that experiment in the past with Hoskins, Hall and a few others, along with Sosa.
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Rhys/Sosa were at the ML level, playing Kemp in LF in AAA is a completely different scenario. Plus Rhys/Hall were strictly 1b; Kemp can play multiple Inf positions. No idea if he can pull it off, but it’s mind-boggling he doesn’t get reps there in LH , especially the way he has hit and the absolute lack of ABs for him at the majors as an infielder.
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Marsh put the ball in play 4 times tonight and collected himself two hits.
So of course the ball he hit over 100 MPH was an out and the only ball under 90 was a hit. I’ll never stop saying it, but baseball is weird.
Welcome back, Swamp Man. Hopefully the time off was just what he needed to make Topper’s lineup decisions more difficult.
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With a abundance of key left handed bats in their lineup….Harper, Schwarber, Marsh, Stott, Kepler…the team as a whole are doing fairly well vs LHPs….ranked 5th in MLB at .264 BA. Mets are ranked 2nd……bat have fewer key LHBs…Nimmo and Soto hold their on vs LHPs.
https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/team-batting-averages-vs-lefties-this-season
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People on here love to beat up Dave Dombrowski for his moves that don’t work out. But Luzardo and Kepler have been amazing moves. Luzardo is an elite SP right now. Cy young candidate at 27 and under team control. Meanwhile, Caba is batting .200 in low A. Still very young and plenty of time. But come on. A clear win for the Phillies.
Kepler has been a great signing too. He’s on pace for a 3 WAR season and has the 22nd best OPS of MLB outfielders. Amazing value for a 1 year $10 mil contract.
Those are two massive upgrades over last year’s team. Obviously signing Romano over Hoffman was a mistake. But still got to give credit when it is due.
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Kepler could also make Marsh expendable. Also add in the fact Rojas has seem to find his bat pf late. Kepler is a free agent after this season, so they could bring him back at age33 next season on a two -year offer…..maybe $12M AAV for two years.
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Luzardo has not been a major innings eater, we need to hold off the CY talk. Folks did it with Ranger and then his back locked up and he was awful in 2nd half of season. I agree though that both moves have had positive early season results. Kepler could be similar to Tosha’s Hernandez signing w/LAD on a 1 year prove it deal.
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Teoscar
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Wha..? Luzardo is 12th in the MLB in IP, 3 behind the league leader (Fried), and 2.1 behind the team leader (Wheeler, who is 2nd in MLB).
It’s fair that there’s still a long way to go, but to this point he’s a leading CY candidate.
Although I’m still hoping Wheeler finally gets his this year.
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Luzardo has 41.2 IP in 7 games. On par with all of the other top SPs.
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I meant throughout his career, I don’t think he’s ever thrown 200IP in a season. Loving what he’s doing so far, just cautious because of his past injury issues
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I’ll give DD credit When due. The Christopher Sanchez extension deserves praise.
If Kepler provs a stable every day LFer against all types of pitching, I’ll tip my cap and admit I was wrong on this ‘economic al’ signing.
I’ll do the same if the Phils don’t need to do some BP patching by the trade deadline. To me, it’s delayed maintenance in the name of economy.
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How about not over paying for Ranger last year? Also a good decision.
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I would have lost it if the Phillies gave Ranger a long term deal.
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While the big club sputters today with this strange lineup — those on the Kemp watch *** after 6 innings 3 — 4 1 HR (10) 3B BB. Abel 5 innings 4H 0 ER 4 BBs 6Ks Stubbs on the cusp of .300 Fergus 2 — 4 HR Arroyo 3 — 5.
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Kemp is smokin’…..they have to be thinking on how to get him up.
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And Crawford 3-3 in game 2
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https://x.com/MLBPipeline/status/1919190841387630853
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If you watch the video, it shows Crawford’s speed but also the oddness of part of Crawford’s offense game. He has good bat to ball skills, but he’s a bit of a slap hitter at times. I realize the point of the video is to show his speed, but it’s hard for me envision exactly how his game will translate to the big leagues. This isn’t to be negative or to raise a red flag, but there are some question marks with him. I do like that he is walking more this year. That’s a very favorable development and he’s handling AAA pitching pretty well, which is another good sign. Overall, he’s doing very well.
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Looks like he got fooled on the outside pitch but he was still able to poke it into LF. He has good contact skills.
At age 21, the hope is that Crawford can still add weight to his tall frame. Currently, his comp is closer to Michael Bourn (22.8 WAR) / Juan Pierre (17.3 WAR) which is solid, just not great. But considering how it seems like the Phillies have been searching for a CF since Shane Victorino, I think we’ll be happy to take our chances with Justin Crawford (and push Rojas to be the 4th OF).
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V1….if you have chance today send the video to Johan Rojas. Thanks
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Kemp had 2 errors today and mainly is playing 3b; where would he get ABs in Philly? We know in the offseason DD tried to trade Bohm, his value was less than DD thought. That stock has further dropped. He has 0 HRs and and slugging <.285. So you can’t trade Bohm and we already have a utility RH infielder in the majors who is a much better defender than Kemp. I would love to see Kemp playing every day in Philly, unfortunately unless an infielder gets hurt, it ain’t happening.
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Trade Bohm to Boston to play first base there. Bring up Kemp. He can’t be worse than Bohm.
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Who wants to trade for Bohm? He has a .550 OPS and he’s not a great fielder. Not only that, he’s making $7.7M this season and will probably make over $10M next season in arbitration. And his agent is Scott Boras.
I doubt the Phillies would want to pay Bohm $10M+ to be a backup so just non tender him at the end of the season. Make 3B a competition in ST between Kemp, Sosa, and Weston Wilson.
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In my view, once Kemp gets another 75-100 ABs, if he’s hitting anywhere close the way he has this year, he’s going to be ready to try to hit MLB pitching. We need to see if his bat translates to the big leagues. If it does, they will need to find a way to get him into games because a big RH bat is the exact weakness of this team. The team is going to have to think creatively and be open about how to get his bat into the line-up. The one thing I loved about Topper when he started was that he was not afraid to start young players. Now, I see a trend where he seems more reluctant to make changes, which is not a good thing. Almost immediately, with his good start to the season, I’d try to move Walker – there may be a market there. If you have to pay 1/3-1/2 the contract, so be it. Move on and get some financial relief. I bet you could find a suitor in the Orioles. They are dying for starting pitching.
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Matt WInkleman had some incredible info last night on his website
https://philliesminorthoughts.com/phillies-minor-league-monthly-retrospective-april-2025/
read the Kemp stuff and he explains why OK may not succeed at the ML level.
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No way he is non tendered, Marsh on the other hand may face that future scenario.
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I don’t understand this at all. Bohm is negative WAR, he’ll likely make over $10M next season. Are you saying that he’s a lock for 3B next season?
Marsh is also negative WAR, but his cost for 2026 will be in the $5M range. Not only that, he’s a decent defender in LF.
Currently, it seems that Marsh would be better suited to be a backup than Bohm.
So the Phillies should definitely keep Bohm?
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Nope, just that IMO there’s no way the Phils non-tender him
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On Kemp’s fielding. I’ve read Steve Potter praise Kemp’s 3B work several times. Unless one is a preternaturally gifted fielder, changing positions every game will really impeded excellence at any single one. If Kemp were, suddenly, to play 3B almost every day, it would, to me, be a signal that Phillies are getting ready to move on from Bohm after this year (after, because nobody will trade for him now)
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Otto Kemp has started 17 games at 3B, 7 games at 1B, 6 games at 2B, 2 in LF. The 6 games at 2B is interesting, if Turner is willing to move to LF after this season (with Stott shifting over to SS).
Kemp has already played in 32 games, almost all the Iron Pigs games.
It’s going to get interesting if he’s still on this torrid streak at the end of June.
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So many questions surrounding the left side of the IF, now and in the near term. Because there is no clarity, I think the situation will play out slowly. If there’s no easy answer, there won’t be a quick resolution.
Bohm is playing for his future in Philly. He won’t be back if his season plays out like this. There’s no arbitration figure you could reasonably come up with that would be acceptable to the Phils for what is essentially a replacement level player. If that turns out to be all Bohm is, that’s a letter grade of “F” for the Phils’ ability to develop a player chosen near the top of the draft.
If Kemp is seen as the heir apparent, this is where he’ll play this year in LV. In a way, the Phils are showing how they feel about Bohm by how they use Kemp in the Valley. If Greg Luzinski can play LF in Philly, then Kemp is a good bet to be able to do so. So there are alternatives.
3B tends to consume many players in Philly. Everyone reading here knows the history. The Phils have to protect against fan time lines and expectations. Bohm is currently not leaving big shoes to fill but the Phils will need to know that Kemp is up to the challenge. As Kemp has barely 200 AAA plate appearances, I can understand the case for waiting a little longer on Kemp.
If Kemp is destined to be the 3B-man of the future, where does that leave Aidan Miller? SS is the easy answer with Turner transitioning to the OF. The Phils will have to apply the same level of certitude to Miller’s ability to be their SS of the future as they do for Kemp and 3B. That’s not the issue for the moment but it could be a big issue this time next year.
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Developing drafted players is hard. I’ve said this previously, if you can get 1 starter out of a draft, you’re doing your job. It’s obviously not ideal for a high draft pick to fail, but it happens a lot. Alec Bohm went #3 in the 2018 draft, but Joey Bart (#2 overall) and Nick Madrigal (#4 overall) are both on their second teams. Even the #1 overall pick Casey Mize hasn’t lived up to expectations.
As for Greg Luzinski in LF, those days are the past. Defensive metrics matter now more than ever. Teams are realizing that you can’t have DHs in the outfield anymore.
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Yeah its supposedly a quality draft if you get 1.5 starters per draft, so basically 3 starters for every 2 years.
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So if early first round picks (Moniak, Bohm) are the low hanging fruit, and late first and subsequent round picks are higher on the tree and undrafted free agents are at the top of the tree, based on their history the Phils should get out of horticulture altogether.
To say that picking prospects who will shine is not easy is a truism. To say that the Phils are historically bad — maybe the worst — at it I believe is also a truism. One good measure is All Star game appearances by draft picks. Another would be to compare WAR. I don’t know any measure that would show the Phils to be good at the American amateur draft, or Latin American or other international signings.
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Kemp may become a super utility player in Philly, but IMO there’s less than a 1% chance he will become our every day 3b. If he was a 1st round pick like Miller things would be different, but pedigree matters. Guys like Kemp have to over-achieve at every level including the ML before they receive the chances a former 1st round pick would.
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You hit on something that bothers me with the Phillies. At some point, pedigree shouldn’t matter as much. Performance and ability matters far more. Again, look at the Eagles. If pedigree mattered more than ability to them, Zack Baun would have been stuck all year behind Kyzir White. But the Eagles valued ability and stuck with Baun and quick dispatched White. True brilliance. I know baseball is different and guys get hot and cold for long periods of time and it takes some guys with tools a while to develop. But you have to show some guts and find a way to get a guy who hits the living hell out of the ball into the line-up.
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I think you seriously underestimate Kemp and from what I have seen of Aidan Miller he has miles to go before he should be in this conversation.
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I have never seen Kemp field so I can’t comment on that, but people are treating the guy like he’s a 29 year-old prospect. He’s not – he’s 25 and in AAA, which is still a legitimate prospect age (although near the edge of that range). Miller has now gotten off to very slow starts in the last 2 years. I don’t know if he has holes in his game or he’s just a slow starter, but it’s obviously not a good thing. So it’s something to keep your eye on. But Kemp’s production, especially for his first year in AAA, is so extreme that you cannot ignore it – he’s been out of this world at the plate.
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Skeet….Miller has started slow before, I want to see how he does in July and August. Double AA ball is the fork in the road, either upward and onward or ….
Incidentally….when I look at Crawford and even Nori to a lesser extent….I can see the 20/21-year version of Mets Brandon Nimmo…..good contact hitters, but OPS driven by OBP-via speed and good idea for BBs, not SLG%. Still both OFers are young and can still progress further at the plate with more pop to come
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“He’s (Kemp) played really well and he can play all over the diamond,” manager Rob Thomson said last weekend. “He’s got a lot of value, he really does.”..……I think something, to that effect, was said last year about Wes Wilson before they brought him up to the majors..
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100% agree. That’s why Moniak made it to the bigs at age 22 even though his minor league numbers were pedestrian at best. That’s why Moniak is still hanging around even though his career WAR is 0.5.
Kemp will eventually get his shot and that’s all that matters. At a certain point, the Phillies will realize that Kemp has nothing left to prove at Lehigh and they will make room for him.
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“Now batting clean-up for the Philles, Peter Pedigree.” The 5-skills contribute to scouting perception and prospects flashing skills get drafted early. Pedigree is another matter and a wild card. Talk to Barry Bonds, Kody Clemens, Kyle Drabek.
Kemp has probably defied most expectations by doing so well at the level he’s reached as an undrafted player. With the Phils it’s clear that it’s not where you get drafted that is determinative. It’s if and how you improve and adjust.
If the Phils were getting 1.5 ‘hits’ per draft, they’d have a dozen keepers from the last 8 drafts. Even if you credit Marsh (acquired for a good draft pick), the Phils don’t come close to that and haven’t done so in 20 years or more.
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Most large market teams have the money to spend on FAs so the FA signings will take up a larger portion of their roster than say a small market team. Not only that, since they know that they can plug in holes with FA signings, they can be aggressive and trade prospects for established talent. This means even less home grown talent on the 26 man roster.
Who are the home grown starters on the Dodgers? Will Smith, Andy Pages, Dustin May. That’s it.
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DFA Bohm and call up Kemp now.
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