Phillies Discussion 4/21/2025

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The Phillies completed a home stand with a 4-3 record against the Giants and Marlins that frankly should have been better.  They travel to New York to face the Mets in a three-game series that will complete a stretch of 16 games in 16 days in which they currently have a 6-7 record. 

The Phillies overcame their difficulty with starting pitchers, scoring early but not often against the Marlins’ starters.  However, their bullpen continues to struggle.  Paul Casella, an MLB reporter covering the Phillies, wrote that the Phillies’ bullpen’s 5.81 is the second worst in baseball behind only the Nationals.  They lead baseball with 6 blown saves.

Casella also points out that the Phillies’ bullpen was equally bad at the start of last season.  They rebounded to have a top ten bullpen from May thru the end of the season.  However, that group which included Hoffman and Estevez, went on to choke badly in the NLDS against the Mets.

In addition to their bullpen woes, the Phillies exhibited an inability to tack on consistently against inferior pitchers from the Marlins’ bullpen.

This is your Phillies discussion.

A few more “too early” observations, continued.

  • Dombrowski is on record stating that Painter will be used as a starter not out of the bullpen.  Their approach with his rehabilitation would seem to support that statement.  The Phillies have been extremely careful with Painter.  The daily workouts for a starting pitcher differ from that of a reliever.  It does seem unlikely that the Phillies would remove the “bubble-wrap” from their future top pitcher for a role as a reliever any time this season or post-season.
  • Mick Abel is rebounding well from his struggles last season.  We will differ on the cause of last season’s difficulties.  However, he has shown the ability to maintain his velocity deeper into games.  His command appears to have improved, too.  Continued improvement could be his ticket to the show at some point this season.
  • On the bullpen, Thomson has said as recently as after Sunday’s game, “We’ve got the pieces there to get it done”, and “I know we have really good arms, really good stuff out there. We’ve just got to keep working at it, keep grinding through it”.  I’d like to believe him, but I don’t.  I hope to be proven wrong.
  • CF looks to be in Johan Rojas’ hands for a least a week.  But I do question Thomson’s decision to pinch hit for him yesterday with Cal Stevenson.  Stevenson didn’t merit an at bat in such an important point in the game.  He sucked at Lehigh Valley (.192/.328/.288/.616) and sucked in spring training (.179/.313/.333/.646).  Rojas is batting .375 against right-handed pitchers.  But if you must pull him for a pinch hitter and are loathe to allow the hitless Kody Clemens (0-5 with one walk) to bat, what about Edmundo Sosa who is hitting .500 against right-handed pitchers.  Or even JT Realmuto who is hitting .292 against right-handed pitchers.  Now, Stevenson did come through with a game-tying RBI on a “hit” that should have been scored as an error on a ground ball that would have ended the inning.  And Stevenson should not have batted as the final out in the tenth.  I find I question Thomson’s decisions more and more lately.

Minor League News

Griff McGarry took the loss when 2 unearned runs he allowed swayed the decision against him.  Through 3 starts he has compiled the following line: 12.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 7 BB, 16 K.  The 7 walks are worrisome.  He is doing this against Double-A competition.

Ranger Suarez will likely make his next rehab start with one of the affiliates playing at home. Possibly on Tuesday since his last outing was last Wednesday.  Lehigh Valley and Jersey Shore both fit that bill.  Steward is scheduled to pitch for the BlueClaws on Tuesday.  TBD is going for the IronPigs.  So, maybe at Triple-A?

Andrew Painter is scheduled to throw three innings or 50 pitches on Thursday for Clearwater.  I hope to make it to the ballpark to watch.  I don’t how much longer he’ll be pitching at this level.

Important Dates

  • April 4, 2025: MiLB roster limits decrease from 175 to 165 players
    • April 4, 2025: MLB optioned players begin counting against player limits
  • April 7. 2025: Start of XST
  • April 14, 2025: First XST game
  • May 2, 2025: Last XST game
  • May 3, 2025: Opening of FCL season, Phillies host Blue Jays
  • July 24, 2025: End of FCL regular season
    • July 26, 2025: One-game FCL semi-final
    • July 27-29: Best of three FCL finals
  • July 31, 2025: MLB trade deadline at 6:00 P.M. EST
  • Note: These dates will be used unless/until notified differently.

Transactions

April 2025
4/20/2025 – Phillies placed CF Brandon Marsh on the 10-day IL retroactive to 4/17, hamstring strain
4/20/2025 – Phillies recalled CF Cal Stevenson from Lehigh Valley
4/20/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated RHP Michael Mercado from the temporarily inactive list
4/18/2025 – Phillies signed FA C Colton Bender to an MiLB contract
4/18/2025 – C Colton Bender assigned to Lehigh Valley
4/18/2025 – Reading activated RHP Mitch Neunborn from the Development List
4/18/2025 – Clearwater activated RHP Marty Gair from the Development List
4/17/2025 – Lehigh Valley placed C Lou Albrecht on the 7-day IL, left wrist hamate fracture
4/17/2025 – C Lou Albrecht assigned to Lehigh Valley from Clearwater
4/17/2025 – Clearwater transferred RHP Cam Brown to the Development List
4/16/2025 – Reading placed C Caleb Ricketts on the 7-day IL
4/16/2025 – C Jordan Dissin assigned to Reading from Jersey Shore
4/16/2025 – Jersey Shore placed RHP Micah Ottenbreit on the 7-day IL
4/16/2025 – C Kehden Hettiger assigned to Jersey Shore from Clearwater
4/16/2025 – RHP Josh Hejka assigned to Jersey Shore from FCL Phillies
4/16/2025 – Clearwater activated C Guillermo Rosario from the 7-day IL
4/15/2025 – Phillies sent LF Weston Wilson on a rehab assignment to Lehigh Valley
4/15/2025 – Reading placed CF Marcus Lee Sang on the full-season IL
4/15/2025 – Reading activated RF Felix Reyes from the Development List
4/15/2025 – SS Cole Roberts assigned to Reading from FCL Phillies
4/15/2025 – Clearwater transferred OF TJayy Walton from the 7-to the 60-day IL

205 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion 4/21/2025”

    1. Man that is brutal.

      Guess this is the luck evening out from them having a never-ending string of successful call-ups for a few years there.

      Baseball giveth Acuna and Albies on bargain bin contracts, and baseball taketh away Strider.

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  2. I’m more and more in your camp about Thomson, Jim. I think he is an uninspiring and poor in-game manager and his comments about the bullpen getting better are inane. The Phillies have not replaced the departed core with similar pitchers. Romano is a joke with only two pitches in his arsenal. With both the Braves and Mets sweeping their weekend series and the Phillies blowing the final game against an inferior opponent, I don’t think this portends well as the season progresses. And, finally, the use of Stevenson in high leverage situations yesterday was criminal. He shouldn’t sniff the majors.

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  3. I largely agree with Jim here about the manager. If you justify L-R lineup construction by numbers, why you pinch-hit Stevenson for Rojas is hard to understand. And if Stott is actually hitting leading off, and if it’s clear protection for Harper matters, moving Stott off of that for anything would really be a bit stupid. And I’ve liked Thomson in the past.

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  4. Always thought the Roberts and Moyer lifetime homerun records were untouchable….. but, maybe not the case, huh?

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  6. Another couple of starts for Nola like the previous 6, and I think they will look to shut him down for awhile on the IL for some reason…Ranger may be ready in by then. Also like to see Mick Abel called up if he gets a few more quality starts in at LHV..

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  7. Watching Nola pitch last night was almost reminiscent of Roy Halladay to start 2013. If Aaron can only sit 90-91 its going to be a long season for him. He maxed efforted a few 92’s but still.

    I have seen Aaron in seasons past start off with lower velocity only to start ramping it back up mid-season so let’s hope that will be the case.

    The thing that amped most about last night in our early ABs against Megill is that they all seemed to be trying to guess along with him. That guy has too much fast ball not to stay on it.

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  8. I’m not overly concerned about Nola, he’s continuing his trend of being good/bad every other year. Looks like a bad year this year. If he finishes near 200 innings with an ERA high 3’s low 4s I’ll be fine with that.

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    1. Nola has had 5 starts and his current ERA is 6.43. For him to get back to the low 3s, he would essentially need to throw 5 shutouts just to offset his 5 poor starts. He has already served up 6 HRs. I think a mid-4s ERA would be a better outcome.

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  9. But wait, I thought people weren’t concerned about Nola’s long contract because he would age well since he relies on reduced velocity?

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    1. Personally, and I could be wrong, but I think Nola will be fine. I think his velocity will inch up over the year and I think his command will improve. That said, the Halladay experience taught me something. It taught me that you really don’t know which pitchers can and cannot sustain even a small loss in velocity. When Halladay could no longer sit at 93-94, he was effectively done. I didn’t see that coming. So, honestly, we don’t know with Nola, but I think he will get through it and be fine. I also think that from inning 6 (even inning 5) forward, Nola needs to be on a VERY short leash. Nola’s career has suffered continually from him being left out there a batter or two too long. When he starts to fade, get him the hell out of there.

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      1. Thomson baffled me last night sending Nola out for the 7th. Up to that point the tides of war can change. After the 1rst guy gets on the “leash is taunt” IMO …. but, he gets to face another before the exit and the drum beat to bring on one of the R’s (Reprehensible’s). The pinch hitting for Rojas with Clemon’s and than insert Cal 🙄 huh! If we are going to take our lumps we can do it just as well with Rojas as Clemons, whom I see no need for on this team.

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      2. The problem is that the Phillies are paying Nola to be a 180-200 innings pitcher, not 160-180 innings. Not only that, his starts will tax the bullpen because he’s not going as long as he should be.

        The only pitchers I know who were able to navigate reduced velocity (low 90s or less) are Zack Grienke and Bartolo Colon. Grienke was a savvy veteran and Colon had a rubber arm.

        Verlander and Scherzer are in their 40s and they’re both still throwing 93-94.

        Yet another reason why I’m not re-signing Ranger Suarez.

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        1. Greg Maddux racked up a ton of WAR in his early to mid 30s barely breaking 90 – although he’s an extreme example.

          FYI – they aren’t sending Nola down or putting him on the IL unless he’s truly hurt. Odds are great that he bounces back and does just fine. Whether he was worth that contract is a separate discussion.

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          1. This is sour grapes on my part, but I remember Maddux getting 2 inches off the plate on either side that the opposing pitcher wasn’t getting. His catcher would set up with his glove off the plate, Maddux would hit the target, strike. I’ve always felt that home plate umpires deserved an assist on Maddux HOF entry. It was particularly galling to watch a Braves-Phillies telecast back then and see our young pitcher not get the same strikes Maddux was getting. See, I told you, sour grapes.

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            1. Yes, sour grapes, but also correct. Glavine lived off the plate, low the same 2 inches. Maddux at least had some great movement. I think Glavine benefited more than Maddux did in those days.

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            3. In their World Series against the Indians (one of the best starting 9s ever), all their starters got what seemed like 6 inches, on both sides of the plate.

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            4. That Indians team was probably the best hitting team I can recall and I thought so at the time. They had:

              Kenny Lofton – should be in the HOF

              Jim Thome – in the HOF

              Eddy Murray – in the HOF

              Manny Ramirez – one of the best hitters ever

              Albert Belle – HOF caliber hitter at his peak whose career was ended by injury – a holy terror with the bat

              Carlos Baerga – well above average hitter that year

              Paul Sorrento – well above average hitter that year

              Omar Vizquel – not a great hitter, but one of the best fielding SSs ever

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            5. I remember that. And Bobby Cox would start complaining in the first inning to make sure he got it.

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          2. They probably will put him on the IL–injury or not…anything can be conjured up….. if his next 3 starts are emblematic of these last 5…..Ranger should be ready to step in……and IMO, Abel if he continues with consec. quality starts will also be an option if they want it to be.

            Exactly how do you know what their plans are for Nola if he continues with poor perfomances? Run him out there to go 0-10

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            1. I don’t really KNOW any more than anyone else. But I do know a few things. First, he’d due another $145 million and I’m sure they aren’t eager to pull the plug on that investment. Second, he has years and years of productive performances and durability and they will rely on that sample size rather than a month worth of stats. Third, his velocity often comes along as the year goes on and he’s not crazy far off those numbers and so it’s very early to do anything rash. So, while they COULD do something crazy here, I would tend to doubt it, at least in the next month or so.

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  10. Taijuan Walker’s generous 4-year contracts expires after the 2026 season, at which point 4 more years remain on Nola’s generous contract extension. Yeesh! Phils pay and pay for guys to play in a city they say they love to play in. Just think of what the team would have to pay otherwise.

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    1. Nola should not have gone out for the 7th, BUT look at the options in the Pen.

      Is Spencer Turnbill (or a reasonable facsimile) available – that is a guy that is experienced, who can go 2ish? Take pressure off Aaron and CY-waun Walker.

      Second not necessarily ‘redesign’ the Pen, but drive ‘urgency’ to the Pen – Alvarado / Closer, Kerkering and Strahm 8th, then slot Romano to 6-7th.

      Find an ailment for Hernandez or Ruiz to visit the 10-Day – for a blister, and use the time to fix mechanics.

      Replace with someone on the 40-man from Farm for this weekend.

      Rent a bus and begin the Iron Pigs / Reading Phils shuttle. Somewhere on the Farm there’s a Brusstar / Seranthony / Kerkering waiting to be unleashed.

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  11. I agree with Catch above – Nola has often been left in too many games for 1 or 2 batters who have pulverized him. I agree with those that think he will be fine because his velo will pick up – and his era metrics so far have not been helped by a week bullpen that has allowed inherited runners to score – particularly Ruiz who has followed him in 4 of his 5 losses. Moreover, he lost one game to LA after giving up 2 runs early and a 3rd run in the 6th inning – only to lose 3-1 when Phillies batters never showed up. If you look at that game – he pitched well enough to win. His next outing was a 2-0 loss to the powerhouse (???) Cardinals when he gave up 2 earned runs and the hitters stayed home again. He should have won that game even though he only went 5 innings. His next outing vs SF was a stinker – 6 earned runs in 5.1 innings – but that team was hitting early in the season. Last night’s Mets loss was another reasonably pitched game, gave up runs early, but then the bullpen allows inherited runs to score and the 5-4 loss looks much worse than it really was.

    I would submit that the above is still SSS but he is a control, finesse pitcher who will right the ship – but he has to get some offensive support and have some decent follow through by the bullpen – so far he has had neither in 3 of the 5 games he has pitched.

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  12. I agree with the above. Nola had given up two solo homers in 6 IP against a top team. He didn’t look great, but TMac even mentioned that it was the 100th quality start of his career. Not so fast! Topper sent him back out for the 7th and it turns into NOT a quality start.

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    1. Unless he was on complete cruise control for the whole game, there’s no way I’m sending Nola out for the 7th inning anymore and, even then, he would be on a short leash.

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  13. Unless Nola says that he’s hurt, he’s not going anywhere. He’s going to stay in the rotation and he’s going to try to work himself out of it. I seriously doubt he’s going 0-10 but a 4.5ish ERA and 1.5 WAR is unfortunately a definite outcome for him if he doesn’t turn it around. And like it or not, he’ll be judged by the contract he signed ($24.57M AAV).

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    1. Lets hope he works himself out of it…..but I am not optimistic. He did something he never did before….walked runners in on a bases loaded ball four….twice this year…never did that ever in the past. He is missing his spots. Execution now, is not what was his standard from the past.

      IMO, the next three starts have to show improvement. Ranger should be ready by then and they may want to see him in there …of course Walker would be the logical guy to drop out.

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  14. 100 % agree. Look at the leash given to Walker and multiply it by 10. Nola won’t feign an injury. This could be a bad year unlike any previous year for Nola. With a strong bullpen, you can remove Nola at the first sign of trouble. But that strong and deep BP ain’t here. Look for Topper to take a lot of criticism for how he handles his relievers. Maybe he can get more out of them by teaching them to be ambidextrous.

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  15. Justin Crawford….though his GB% still hovers around low 60s, which has ticked  down from previous years, his LD% is the highest in his career to date at 23%, while his FB% is also at the lowest at 15%. He is barreling up the ball more it appears so far this year. Granted it  still is less than 100 PAs so basically a SSS. But so far encouraging metrics. Another 50/75 PAs will tell us more and a more definitive evaluation.

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  16. This is not directed towards your Justin Crawford comment, Romus, but I think the below “stabilization” thresholds are interesting because they indicate that Schwaber’s (20.4% versus career rate of 28.8%) and Nick’s (19.6% versus career rate of 23.3%) lower strikeout rates in 2025 may be “real” — may indicate a sustainable improvement — since they are well beyond the stabilization threshold for strikeout rate:

    (From Fangraphs) “Stabilization” Points for Offense Statistics:

    • 60 PA: Strikeout rate
    • 120 PA: Walk rate
    • 240 PA: HBP rate
    • 290 PA: Single rate
    • 1610 PA: XBH rate
    • 170 PA: HR rate
    • 910 AB: AVG
    • 460 PA: OBP
    • 320 AB: SLG
    • 160 AB: ISO
    • 820 BIP: BABIP
    • 80 BIP: GB rate
    • 80 BIP: FB rate
    • 600 BIP: LD rate
    • 50 FBs: HR per FB

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      1. It could be that. It could also be the team-wide effort to see more pitches.

        Your chances of striking out lower dramatically when you start 1-0 as opposed to 0-1. So the fact that a lot of our guys are no longer swinging at every first pitch leads to many more hitter-friendly counts (relatively speaking, not necessarily in a vacuum).

        I think it helps Casty especially because he’s guessing wrong at first pitch sliders way less if he’s trying to take more pitches.

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  18. Crap, Sanchez left the game with left forearm soreness which is obviously not good. Suarez just pitched 5 innings at Lehigh. We will know more in the coming days.

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    2. For some players this is a legitimate part of their game. At his peak, Utley was hit by about 25 pitches a year, which great improved his on base percentage (amazingly, Utley was hbp about 1/4 the amount of walks he received – which is crazy). Utley was a master at this. He definitely moved before he was hit by a pitch, so it looked like he was getting out of the way, but he wasn’t moving out of the way at all. He just twisted his body so it looked like he wasn’t trying to get hit and he would also be hit on a part of his body that would not cause an injury (he usually got hit in the back). Of course, it didn’t always work and what probably would have been his best season ever, 2007, was marred by an injury caused when he was hit by a pitch.

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  20. There are opportunities everywhere for players everywhere. I’m getting the Mets broadcast of this game and the announcers are reporting on the Phils like a dumpster fire. With Wheeler going tomorrow, they’re talking about a Mets’ sweep.

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  21. Ranger Suarez pitched five innings for Lehigh Valley tonight. His line –

    5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K. He threw 59 pitches, 49 for strikes for a very solid 67.8% strike rate. He had 8 whiffs.

    17 4-seamers, 90.1 to 92.9, avg 92.0, one whiff

    22 sinkers, 89.9 to 92.3, avg 91.3, 3 whiffs

    12 curveballs, 73.2 to 76.9, avg 75.2, 2 whiffs

    7 changeups, 79.8 to 81.7, avg 80.8, one whiff

    1 cutter. 85.8, one whiff

    He will pitch again for Lehigh Valley on Sunday per Thomson tonight.

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  23. Why would a right handed pitcher throw anything but sliders to Castellanos? Maybe a fastball here or there out of the strike zone to set up the slider.

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    1. I am pretty sick of seeing the same old Phillies offense movie. Yes, they can score runs in bunches at times which makes their overall offense look good, but against even decent pitchers they seem to always struggle mightily and they go into crazy bad funks where nobody hits so you know, during a given postseason, at some point, they will just stop hitting and out they go. I am less pessimistic about the bullpen and at some point they will do what they always do, which is to acquire a big bp arm before the trade deadline and overpay like crazy to do so. I think Mick Abel is as good as gone – let’s just pray they don’t trade Escobar.

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      1. The problem is that out of the main 9 hitters, only 4 are making LESS than $19M per year: Stott, Bohm, Kepler, Marsh/Rojas.

        Stott is doing fine, Kepler will get a leash because he’s making $10M per year. That really only leaves Bohm and Marsh/Rojas for improvements.

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        1. It is definitely a problem – and it calls for innovative solutions, including eating salaries, making unexpected moves and like. But just throwing the same old guys out there again and again – geez – that really does not seem like the answer here.

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          1. You have to be able to make the hard choices for the good of the team. I’ve said this before, you can’t give everybody $10M. Then you’re stuck with contracts that nobody wants when the inevitable decline happens.

            It will hurt but I have no issues letting Realmuto and Schwarber walk if they’re asking for big money.

            The Phillies need to stop giving veterans big money and start giving young guys a shot.

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            1. I think you just have to pick and choose. They should probably move on from Realmuto and sign Schwarber who has unique abilities and seems to still be at his peak. But for the love of God, don’t give him a 5 or 6 year contract when he’s going to be 33 next year. The length of these contracts make them albatrosses and make the player and the contract (even with partial paydowns) almost impossible to move. Also, don’t sign Bohm to a long-term deal – he’s just average-ish. Giving average or okay guys big contracts is what bad organizations do.

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  25. Dombrowski has painted the team into a corner from which it’s hard to see an escape. The maintenance left unattended in the last off-season becomes more costly at mid-season, long after the free agent market has dried up.

    Depth in the starting rotation has taken a hit and depth in the bullpen seems largely non-existent. Vets that appeared on a downward trajectory last year continue on that trajectory. The timeline, the window for success, team leadership has in mind doesn’t square with performance on the field.

    Some help may be forthcoming from prospects in the coming months but will the team still be in contention by then? And, finally, the wallet of ownership seems closed in the near term.

    Some of this — primarily the ‘dead money’ embedded in overly generous long term deals, lies squarely with Dombrowski. If the team is forced to retool in a major way, this off-season, will President Dombrowski be entrusted to carry it out?

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    1. We have seen this Dombrowski movie before. He has his strengths as a GM, but he has some very distinct weaknesses and one of those weaknesses is a troubling tendency to leave teams with stupidly long contracts that tie their hands for years. It took years and years for the Tigers and Red Sox to dig out of Dombrowski land. If we’re not careful, we’ll end up there too.

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      1. He most definitely will sign Schwarber to a 4/100-120M contract then ride off to Nashville.

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    2. Sure it appears Dave D has a ‘painted himself into a corner’…..but the silver lining, he has not purged the farm system, yet. And that could be the saving grace in the long term. He missed the contract boat on both Walker and Castellanos…years and money……and also in a few years Turner…but as long as he doesn’t start trading top prospects there is the light……took the Red Sox awhile after he lf that org. I hope it will not be the same in Philly.

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      1. Not sure how DD created a mess in Boston. They won the WS in 2018 with him as the GM. next season 2019 they were over .500 and he was then gone.

        2020 Covid year they were bad, but they were a 92-win team in 2021.

        Their issues starting in 2020 fall on everyone’s golden boy Chaim Bloom who took over as GM and immediately screwed up the trade for Betts.

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        1. Yeah…I probably painted a wrong pix with Dave D there in Beantown after he left. Though Cherington did help secure many of the players that won the series…..Martinez however was DD and that have been the difference maker for the Sox that year..

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  26. I’ll throw this out there on DD. When you are tasked with winning a championship… you almost undoubtedly are going to overpay. It’s going to happen, it’s the price of business. When you do pay, you expect to increase your number of real chances at a chip… while obviously hoping to win at least 1.

    That said… let’s take a look at every bodies seemingly favorite whipping boy. Now, I am a Nola fan…but this point applies to other areas of the team as well. As a fan, we look at individual salaries and say … “he’s overpaid, not worth it, etc” I think DD/FO looks at it more like … The SR is producing for its cost/% of the team salary. In other words, I don’t care who gets paid out of the starting 5, as along as they produce as a group. If Nola is under performing but Sanchez is exceeding the expected production… Doesn’t matter to me. you can essentially average out their salary/performances. DD’s job is to keep the equation in the “exceeding production column” It’s when the group as a whole is not doing what is expected of it. Once you replace Walker with Painter.. the group will likely be underpaid as a whole compared to the % of salary allocated to it. It’s supposed to be a strength. The lineup, bullpen, and bench have there % as well.

    This team needs what Harper stated a few years back… they need to produce … in the prospect department. This team really needs Painter, Crawford, Miller, Kemp, and others … at this point in the “window”

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  28. Speaking of Harper, he is as responsible for bringing in Turner as Dombrowski is. Harper wanted Turner so Dombrowski gave him the massive contract. Now, I like Harper a lot. He’s a bulldog, a tough kid (at my age, he’s still “a kid”) but he can’t be allowed to dictate who to sign. Let me ask you all this. Who would you rather have playing SS for the next 8 years – Turner or Lindor?

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    1. I hated Turner’s contract the second it was signed. I was furious. Giving 11/300 to a 29/30 year old at a position where players don’t age well?

      Lindor got 10/341 but at least he was 28.

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      1. I hated it too – yes, the moment it was signed. If you went back on this site and look at the comments, I believe I complained that it was at least 3-5 years too long, which remains my primary complaint. That said, I expected he would be worth the contract for the first 5 or 6 years, but so far, even that has not been true, although he hasn’t been terrible. They paid for an excellent player and have gotten a good to very good player – in a few years they will be paying a lot for a barely average player. After that, it’s ugly.

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    1. I don’t know if Johnson to the bullpen is a permanent move. This could just be a result of Suarez starting on Johnson’s day. He may return to the rotation once Suarez is activated by the Phillies. Johnson pitching out of the bullpen before Sunday (Suarez’ next scheduled start) would be very telling.

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  30. Ownership and GM bought into the bear rally which begun when we got bounced by the D-Backs. Now we’re left to wallow in our frustration.

    Thankfully DD and JM have restrained themselves from dealing any more prospects.

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    1. Aroon Escobar has to be untouchable. He hit another HR today. He’s currently slashing an absurd .393/.477/.696 in the Florida heat after 14 games.

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  31. When the Phillies decided to “run it back”, they weren’t running it back with a 95-win team. They were running it back with a .500 team (33-33 after the All-Star break) that went 1-3 in the playoffs.

    Aside from the addition of Jesus Luzardo to the rotation in lieu of Taijuan Walker (eventually?) and the option-driven decision between Rafael Marchan over Garrett Stubbs, I think we are in 100% agreement that Carlos Hernandez, Jordan Romano, Joe Ross, and Max Kepler were never enough of an improvement over Kolby Allard, Carlos Estevez, Jeff Hoffman, and Austin Hays (these guys were on the 2024 playoff roster).

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    1. No, they are running it back with a 95-win team. Can’t cherry pick 2nd half of the 2024 season and say that’s the real team.

      Time will tell if it was the correct decision was made in making bigger changes for 2025 but trying to make that claim in April can’t be done.

      Liked by 1 person

  32. I was agreeing with Jim. The Phils limped to the finish line. The Mets sprinted. Execs going into the off-season resting on the laurels of a 95 win division-winning season deserve the fate that befalls them. There’s such a thing as a late season ‘eye test.’ With the 2024 Phils and the 2023 Eagles. Sorry, sup, couldn’t disagree with you more.

    Liked by 1 person

  33. Okay, hear me out on this radical line of thinking.

    If the Phillies continue to play themselves into a second-division team (I did say radical), they become sellers at the deadline.

    I don’t know who they would have of value to sell or who they wouldn’t want to move, but that would likely protect the prospects we fear they could move in desperation moves to make a playoff run. Might even provide some big-league playing time for some of the more promising prospects. It would be good to get a look at guys like Kemp, Crawford, Rincones and maybe even Moore, Ricketts, and Anthony from Reading. Plus any promising pitchers depending on openings in the rotation and bullpen like Abel, Cabrera, Chace, Johnson, Kuhnel, and Lazar.

    Like

    1. Eiberson Castellano only has 10 IP so far at Reading but his WHIP is .90 and his K/9 is 9 over a 1.8/9 BB rate. He hasn’t started any games so maybe option someone in the BP not getting it done and give him an extended audition.

      It would also be nice if someone grew a set and told Casty we’re going to a platoon. You can do that with he and Casty or be bold and let Rincones get an extended audition.

      I mean just do something because this LU is lifeless right now.

      Like

      1. If you want an unhappy Castellanos, that’ll do it. Then you might as well eat $15M and trade him somewhere else at the end of the season.

        Like

        1. Who the hell cares what Casty thinks. He’s horrible against rh pitching and is a liability in RF. Did signing him to a 5/100M was outrageous.

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          1. You’re angry and I get it, but this isn’t fantasy baseball. You have to deal with the egos of players. Baseball managers are part babysitters, more so than other sports largely because of the contracts.

            Like

    2. If it came to that, you figure any of the upcoming FAs will be available like Realmuto, Kepler, Schwarber, Suarez, Romano. Alec Bohm should be on the block again. Taijuan Walker should be available.

      I think if somebody comes with a good offer, Alvarado and Sosa should be available.

      Like

      1. Yes, I was thinking along these lines, too. Also, if Castellanos continues to produce as he has been, maybe a team pushing for a playoff berth takes a chance if the Phillies toss in a sweetener. Hey, they were able to unload Soto last year.

        Like

    3. Well the valuable pieces we have to sell would be Ranger, Alvarado, and Strahm. Also Wheeler, if we’re going into a rebuild.

      Schwarber would also get us a legitimate prospect, but a smaller return overall than those guys. JT might get us an actual prospect, or multiple lottery tickets.

      Ross and Bohm would get us lottery tickets.

      Taijuan and Casty would get us salary relief.

      And Romano would get cut.

      Like

  34. When I didn’t see any complaints about the game, I figured the Phillies were winning (which they are) – but for how long is the question.

    Like

      1. Well he does put us out of our misery quickly. He’s in a bad run right now – yikes. Boy that decision not to sign Hoffman – it’s coming back to haunt them in a big way.

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        1. Plenty of blame to go around this series. But the two most glaring (and easy) changes to make to this team right now, in my opinion:

          1. Someone get it into Thomson’s head that left-right matchups aren’t everything. Stevenson is not good. Stop putting him in.
          2. Cut Romano. Do it yesterday. Topper isn’t the best at making bullpen decisions, but he only has so much to work with. And he needs to use what he has. Don’t let him use Romano anymore. Cut him.

          Like

  35. By the way, Brad Lidge would have been absolutely killed by the ghost runner. Just a random thought.

    Like

    1. There’s only a handful of pitchers in all of MLB history that I would trust to regularly strand the ghost runner, to be fair. That’s why it’s basically required to score more than one as the away team.

      Like

      1. Dan…Phillies had the opp…bases loaded one out…..Stott and Kepler fly out. Like to have seen Stott lay a bunt down the third base side. They need something out of the ordinary to spark them back into some reality.

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  36. Just my luck SNY televised all 3 games of this series so I got to watch every single inning. Just my luck! The Mets did everything right to sweep this series and the Phils did everything wrong to get swept. The Mets made all the defensive plays and hit and drove in runners when they needed to. The Phillies ate the apple all 3 games and could not come up with the big hit.

    Even though I think Gary Cohen is the best play-by-play announcer in the business, I needed to turn the TV to mute when the Mets batted in the 10th so I didn’t have to hear him get excited when they got that final run. I’m amazed at how strong Alonzo is to flick his bat on that outside slider (which was a good pitch by Romano) and hit it so far. The winning hit was a flare that just dropped in.

    The Mets play with excitement, confidence, and fun. The Phillies are going through the motions. I hate to say/write this but this was the way they were playing for Joe Girardi at the end of his tenure. Four straight losses is not going to get Thomson fired but the team needs to show a little more urgency in what’s happening on the field. Sooooo disappointing!

    Liked by 1 person

  37. Trea Turner should not lead off for any MLB team. Edmundo Sosa shows no rust. He and Stott are 2 of the best bats currently. Gotta’ figure way to give them both at bats. I’d play Marchan more. Realmuto doesn’t seem to have a handle on the strike. When he makes strong contact, it’s an event now.

    How many Phil’s will hit double digit HR’s this year? 4-5?

    Like

    2. Agree on Turner. Let Stott start every day and let him lead off every day. Sosa should start every day while he’s hot. In his case, I’d rather he play than Topper play lefty-righty decsions.

      Like

    1. i have them at 83-79. Very discouraging. They are worse than we could have imagined.

      SP- only 3 that I trust. Luzardo, Sanchez, Wheeler. Hope Sanchez isn’t hurt. Only hopes are when Suarez returns we get the 2024 first half pitcher not the second half, and Nola figures out how to keep ball in the park.

      RP- again only 3 I somewhat trust but wouldn’t bet my money on any-Alvarado, Strahm, Kerkering. The rest I would trade for a bag of balls. No hope on the horizon here. Not resigning Hoffman was worst off season mistake.

      Batters- RISP trust only Harper, Swarbs, and surprisingly Casty somewhat. The rest of team is batting at replacement level at best.

      Luckily I get to watch all the Pigs home games, so I will give them most of my attention. Abel may have found something, and Crawford and Kemp playing well

      Like

  39. Some revisionist history going on with Turner and Castellanos from where I stand.

    I’d of overpaid for Turner easily too. Why? You were coming off an unexpected WS run, 2 wins away… 2 doiminate players in Wheeler & Harper… now .. you’re going to replace Jean Segura with Trea Turner? Yes. Do it. They did it… but they likely were supposed to have won one by now. Shouldn’t pushed them over …. The teams offensive downfall is when they got rid of Hoskins. Hasn’t been the same since. Id still do the Turner deal. Him and Harper even each other out. Harper is underpaid,Trea is over. .. by the time the deals are over.. they will be OKAY. Money.

    On Castellanos… He was the exclamation point on the offseason. Had a crazy year in CIN. Basically 40 hrs, & 40 2B… thats the Castellanos we all wanted….hasnt been it .. but the OF before Schwarber & Castellanos were added was terrible. So an overpay was justified.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Turner was given the 10th richest deal in MLB history. He’s not even a top 25 player in the current league. It was an awful contract from the start and will just get worse.

      Like

      1. Well he is already the 21st “richest” contract, and 24th in terms of AAV. After missing the championship by 2 games, it was the best add the team could make. In time, his 27mil will be peanuts if baseball salaries continue to rise & luxury tax thresholds. Unfortunately, Hoskins got hurt and ended what was supposed to be a top offense…. Albeit with a crappy defense. Id still do it. It’s not the FO’s fault they squandered the NLCS to the stinking DBacks. The Phillies had 2 of the greatest performances ever in postseason history on the pitching & offensive side of the ball… and couldnt get it done. Not to mention a near perfect bullpen run in 22 with Alvarado & Dominquez. It didnt happen, but Im glad the FO swung. It’s really hard to win a title, and they improved their chances by signing Turner.

        Like

  40. The shortstop market was crazy in the 2022 off-season. The Twins, through patience and good fortune, got the best deal with Correa.

    After signing Schwarber, the Phils doubled down getting a right-handed lesser version — a designated hitter to play RF on a longer deal. You take Castellanos only if the terms are concessional. 3 years at $20 M you could make a case for it if the cupboard was bare. 5 years — no way. Was thhere ever a time the Castellanos 5-year signing looked good? Only if they’d missed out on Schwarber.

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      1. I’m sure I overuse the term “it couldn’t be worse” LOL

        Looking for potential moves on trades from the 26 I don’t see it as selling. Not for us anyway.

        I don’t believe now is time but nor would I wait until the trade deadline. Maybe in another month or two I’d see if we could shuffle the deck some.

        As much as I want to see Crawford up I am mindful that not every prospect that conquers the minors makes it in the MLB. Knowing when a prospect is ready has to be the hardest part of the job.

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        1. Yes agree…the ‘Dom Brown Effect’……I would let Crawford get approx. another 200 PAs in LHV before even thinking of promoting him….then it would be if the Phillies OF production has cratered.

          OTOH, as for Abel……..4/5 more starts like the last two…..I would consider it is his time…..turns 24 years old in August, already made 29 Triple A starts….he may have now turned the corner.

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        2. Selling come July?

          ……perhaps Marsh. They may like what Kepler is doing in LF by then. Not sure what the market would be for Marshy…he is controlled, which is a plus, but is basically now a bat against RHPs…and he also needs to pick it up at the plate over the next two months.

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  42. It’s official, the Phillies have moved Seth Johnson to the bullpen. This means he could be one of the first to be called up if somebody like Ruiz continues to struggle.

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    1. This is smart, they are in triage mode. I wasn’t surprised this offseason when they didn’t sign Hoffman and Estevez, but I was surprised they signed neither.

      Like

  43. I have not seen much of Seth Johnson, but in video that I did see, his fastball looked laser-straight with zero movement.

    Like

    1. actually his induced vertical break average on his four seamer last outing was 18 and reached 20 which is far from straight – it’s in the top tier. I don’t think anyone can see that on a video.

      Steve Potter

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      1. That is very encouraging. Wishing the best for the young man – the Phillies could sure use a boost in the pen right now.

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  44. Panic time? Im not there yet. They just need to make the playoffs. That said… I buy into the .500 team perspective. They need a shakeup… So here it is…

    SS-Stott, CF Turner, RF Harper, DH Schwarber, LF Casty, 3B Kemp, 2B Sosa, 1B Bohm ,C – Realmuto/Marchan

    Like

    2. Besides the fact that Turner is contractually obligated to play SS in 2025, this would likely be one of the worst defensive outfields in the history of Philly baseball.

      Like

      1. Meh, if Kemp is for real. I’ll take it. It’s not as bad as the Schwarzenegger/Castellanos OF we recently lived through. You still have Rojas to come in as a late inning replacement to put Casty on the bench. I’m comfortable with that since it’s one of the few ways to get a shake up on this team. Even peaking at FA … it’s pretty bleak. Phillies need to develop talent

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  45. Only a few teams are buried by trade deadline in regards to a wild card spot; Phils ain’t selling. Doesn’t mean a player from roster won’t be moved(Marsh/Rojas). This group will get the entire year and the final verdict won’t be rendered until October.
    People have short memories; Nats in 19 were awful for 2 months and won the WS. Phils were awful for 2 months in 22, fired their manager, then got to 2 wins away from a title. In 24 Mets were awful for 2 months then reached NLCS. It sucks now but this group’s obituary ain’t getting written in July.

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    1. These journeys through the past are not so interesting or relevant in the current competitive environment. The NL has 2 teams intent on spending like drunken sailors and a Phils team with a rubber band around its wallet.

      If the Phils don’t win the NL East, they’re in competition for a post-season slot in an NL with not just the Dodgers and Mets but the Padres, Cubs, Giants, Braves D-backs and Brewers. That’s sobering.

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  48. When the Phils saved $4.5 M on Jordan Romano over Kirby Yates — 8th in AL Cy Young voting in ’24, it would have spoken volumes to many of us. The Dodgers’ pen was already loaded. The Phils? You tell me. If you don’t like the rubber band reference, I offer the “for want of a nail, the race was lost.”

    Like

  49. Andrew Painter Report

    Painter started for the Threshers in Clearwater and was scheduled to throw three innings or 50 pitches. He threw 43 pitches in three innings. His line was –

    3.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 8 whiffs

    He threw 32 strikes in 43 pitches for an excellent 74.4%. Maybe too excellent. It looked like the Mussels were sitting on his fastball. They hit 3 hard hit balls – two doubles and a fly ball that Carter Mathison leapt to catch at the right field wall.

    Painter gave up a one out double in the first inning and a leadoff double in the second and pitched out of both situations successfully. Both runners were stranded at third base.

    His pitch breakdown was as follows –

    25 four-seamer fastballs – 95.2 to 99.2. 96.9 avg, 5 whiffs

    5 sliders – 84.9 t0 89.2, 87.0 avg, 2 whiffs

    5 cutters – 90.1 to 91.4, 90.6 avg

    6 curveballs – 81.4 to 85.0, 83.2, 1 whiff

    2 changeups – 91.3 and 91.9, 91.6 avg

    Gameday recorded one of Painter’s 4-seamers at 91.2 in the third inning. Probably a misread but it is calculated in his avg.

    Liked by 2 people

    2. Great info … wonder if they are having him focus on the FB and location early on and he’s getting solid results despite “pitching” to any certain situation. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the case. Either way, the results are great so far. Would imagine with the weather warming up, he will move up soon.

      Like

    3. So roughly 59% are fastballs and 11 pitches were CBs and SLs. Prior to the injury those 2 pitches needed some work. Is that still the case or have they improved. Just curious.

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      1. Thought he struggled to get on top of the breaking balls in the first inning last night and they were a little flat, which is why he struggled to put hitters away. Second and third inning the breaking balls looked much sharper. I don’t think you can pull any big sweeping conclusions out of the first few outings, but it’s hard not to be positive about nearly 75% strikes and stuff still looking similar to how it did pre-surgery.

        https://x.com/Mitch_Rupert/status/1915543125310804309

        Liked by 1 person

  50. Its too early to handicap much but I don’t see a WC coming out of the central. I see potentially 2 coming out of the West and 1 in the East.

    The Cubs compete very well I think they are the favorite to win the Central and this will be an interesting series for us.

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  51. Very happy that Painter is doing well in his early starts but keeping in mind that he is doing this against Low A batters.

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  52. Alright, Thomson’s use of Stevenson is bordering on criminal now.

    Are you seriously telling me Stevenson is somehow better than just telling Rojas to bunt? He’s a worse hitter than Rojas, and now we lose Rojas’ defense as well.

    It’s a good thing we have first hand reporting of the minor leagues on the website because it seems like if I wanna enjoy watching a Philadelphia player in the next couple weeks, it’s gonna need to be the prospects.

    Like

    3. Regarding Thomson and Stevenson, Clemens who made the team out of spring training got 7 PA in 25 games, Stevenson has 6 PA in less than a week (5 games).

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      1. Clemens never made sense making the team. He’s a lefty without a position to fill. Stevenson isn’t any good but he can play CF.

        My issue is the rigid devotion to the left/right matchups with a guy who can’t hit.

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  53. If we can’t hit or score runs the RP won’t matter. 4 games 40Ks, we need to start subtracting some of the K producers from the Korp. We call Taijuan the Long Man, but 86 pitches in 3 innings isn’t the long we have in mind. Very underwhelming performance.

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    1. Unfortunately the Phils are starting to look like the Phillies teams I used to root for in my youth , but the owners back then didn’t waste any money on. Can’t blame John Middleton for this. The GM and the manager must pull this team out of this dive in a hurry, this is snowballing rapidly.

      This same old thing everyday isn’t working. LeHigh is like 18-7 so somethings working down there. It maybe too early for Crawford, but try it anyway, also Kemp. Their doing what the current Phillies lineup is not, hitting. Leave them in the lineup everyday for a while if they don’t hit maybe it will light a fire somewhere. It’s better than slow death we see now.

      The farm should be able to supply at least 2 able relievers right now, not closer types, but innings eaters.

      Like

      1. I like your suggestion, but you would have to replace Thomson because that is not in his repotoire. He can’t even leave Rojas get a complete game in without pinch hitting for him.

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        1. Hard to believe this team is .500. If they fall tonight …could be a good message to the club to fire Either Thomson or the hitting coach. I say the hitting coach because it woudl make the players who care for him skirm a bit.

          I proposed the promotions of Kemp & Crawford earlier in the thread. If Johnson is throwing 98mph and locating… add him to the list. Put Romano no the IL. That signing is not going how many expected. Just terrible so far.

          The window is could rapidly be closing on this group. They will argue against it. I dont want to overreact, but it’s possible. This team shouldn’t be .500… but let’s also acknowledge Romano is a decent reason why.

          This team is in the mist of a 10 game evaluation period. Something is brewing. If it craps 3 below .500. Someone is getting fired, and players are switching positions imho.

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          1. Think how bad both NY teams were last year in May and June and how they finished…..sometimes all it takes is a spark, they just should not try to extinguish a smoldering wick.

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            1. I’d like to think that Harper, Turner and the Schwarbarian get this team off the mat, but not without the supporting cast, Stott, Caste, and maybe Marsh even if Crawford doesn’t come up. But it must come soon if their going to at least make the playoffs.

              Every team will probably have pitching problems. But the Phillies should have more pitching depth than most teams.

              Like

        2. Thomson taking over for Girardi was the perfect fix for the 2022 team. The players seem to respect him, he has a great clubhouse presence, seems to have an even temperament, but at this payroll you must win also. Just my opinion, but I hope he adjusts because if he doesn’t he’s going to be done soon.

          As you suggested about Rojas I feel there is still a place for him on the team even if Crawford comes up and is effective if DD doesn’t (god forbid) trade either one of them. Two young outfielders serious speed could cover a lot of ground and hopefully can hit a bit.

          Sometimes I think the managers with a good organization behind them should be more like Charlie Manual, less moves the better, get along with the players, have a good time. Charlie never got the credit (awards and stuff) but I thought he was a great manager because he just won.

          Liked by 1 person

  54. Meanwhile “back at the ranch” a guy named Austin Hays after 44 abs is hitting .386 with 5 hrs and a sb w/ a 1.xxx ops.

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    1. Just add him to the list of players we got while they were injured/ill who then went on to be successful elsewhere while healthy.

      Like

    2. I can hear all the crying if Hayes had been resigned. “They are just returning the same team”. If only foresight was 20-20 too.

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      1. Yeah, you can’t complain about the Austin Hays thing – he was terrible here. No way to see this coming. I can’t fault the team for that.

        Like

    3. Well that ruined my day! Just kidding.. I had feeling on that. They need to look into this. Sure he is further removed from injury etc, but Casty also hit much better in CIN… what’s the deal with that? They need to confirm its not just the “player”

      Like

  55. Matt Strahm might be willing to pay MLB his entire salary to get ABS introduced immediately right about now.

    FOUR OUT OF FIVE batters he has faced so far has at least one missed strike call… and all of those batters would have been struck out if the call was made. The only batter the umpire DIDN’T miss a strike call for was the one guy who got a hit on the first pitch.

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  57. I’m as happy as all of the rest of you that the Phillies broke the five game losing streak and got off the snide. They were helped a lot by a couple of bloops that dropped in but that’s baseball and we’ll all take it as long as it’s a W.

    What got me is that Luzardo probably goes seven innings if Turner doesn’t boot that grounder. Then, in Strahm’s inning, Stott doesn’t get the DP and later doesn’t get to a grounder. To top it off, Turner is slow to the ball in the ninth.

    They made a laugher into a bit of a nail biter. This team has to tighten the defense and help these pitchers out. I can almost guarantee that Tucker is going to have a big game against Nola as he usually does after doing little today.

    Like

  58. I guess if Ben Brown shut out the Phillies, there would be more talk about him. Didn’t like the trade for David Robertson when it happened, but the Cubs knew what they wanted. That said, watching the game yesterday was almost like watching 2 separate games. The scouting report was on the money. Brown’s knuckle curve had bite in the first 3 innings and it made the Phillies (who haven’t seen it before) look bad. He ran through the Phillies with 2 pitches. Then the 4th inning started and he started to hang the knuckle curve. But with 2 pitches, he couldn’t exclusively go to the fastball. The Phillies feasted.

    Ben Brown is obviously talented, but if he can’t get a reliable 3rd pitch, he needs to go to the bullpen. At the minimum, he could be a setup guy.

    Like

  59. Austin Hays has an absurd .429 BABIP. He’ll come back down to earth.

    Here’s some optimistic views:

    (1) Luzardo is a Cy Young candidate. Caba is going to take a looong time to develop (hitting .200 in Low A, with an ISO of .000). That trade looks like a win. If the Phils can make the playoffs, Wheeler and Luzardo will be a tough matchup for anyone.

    (2) Abel’s 2025 looks very promising. It’s his age 23 season. He looks like a #4 or #5 starter next year.

    (3) Painter’s recovery is on track. Adding Painter and Johnson to the bullpen would give the big club two more upper 90s arms by July.

    (4) Justin Crawford looks like the starting CF next year, at age 22. Hitting .303 this year in AAA as a 21-year-old. Career .315 hitter in 1062 minor league plate appearances.

    (5) Otto Kemp keeps hitting. .302/.404/.615 this year in 114 plate appearances. Looks like the Phils have found a versatile major league-quality player (maybe not a starter, we’ll see) who is 25.

    (6) Jordan Romano will either pitch better or won’t be on the team in the second half of the year. He’s on a one-year contract, so the Phils aren’t married to him in any sense.

    Like

    1. Luzardo was always good, IF he was healthy. He’s currently 27. The Phillies should look into extending him but not a crazy number.

      Not sure why, but DD said that Painter won’t be part of the bullpen.

      I still think Crawford will make his debut this year, but for sure he’ll be in ST looking for a starting job in 2026.

      Kemp will get a shot IF Bohm doesn’t live up to expectations this year. Bohm will get DFAd if he wants $12M because he’s certainly not worth that.

      The Phillies have too many old guys making too much money. I mentioned that the Astros have let all their aging stars go but they kept Jose Altuve. And finally, at age 34/35, he’s starting to decline and he’s still owed 4/92. Oops.

      Like

      1. Systematically the Astros seem to do it the correct way….first was Correa, then came Bregman this past off-season and then the trade of Tucker for prospects, foreshadowing his astronomical contract next year. They probably can navigate around Altuve’s contract without burdensome other contracts…..also helps that they have two WS rings within the last decade to rest their laurels on with the fanbase.

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        1. little early to determine if Astros are doing it correctly or not. This is their 1st season without Tucker and Bergman and they are 13-13 right now.

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          1. Yeah probably….but what they have been able to do is put themselves in a better position financially for future contracts if free agency is where they may want to go.

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          2. The Astros future commitments are not as onerous as the Phillies. Trea Turner’s remaining contract is MORE than the remaining contracts of these 4 Astros: Altuve, Walker, Hader, McCullers. How crazy is that?

            Like

            2. So? you know that the Mets obligation to Soto is more than the entire Phillies roster?

              That’s what big market teams do and baseball has no salary cap. For years, fans complained that the Phillies were a big market team that cried poor. Now they spend like a big market team and fans complain they are spending too much.

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            3. Juan Soto is an elite player. In the end, it will likely hurt the Mets but for now, all is good in NY.

              Giving Turner that contract was ridiculous, and now he’s already starting to decline at age 31. And before you say that the Phillies can absorb it, they can, but just this past offseason, the Phillies didn’t want to go past a certain luxury threshold and it hampered them.

              For sure, I would rather be a team that’s throwing around money but you can’t give it to everybody. And you certainly shouldn’t be giving it a 30 year old SS. After catchers, middle IFs decline fast. Jimmy Rollins was mostly league average in his 30s before he bottomed out at age 36. Chase Utley handled his early 30s better than Rollins but by age 36, he too was also finished. The Phillies will be paying Turner to his age 40 season.

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  61. Not sure what’s going on, but Cade Fergus has been on fire since he was promoted to Lehigh. 3 HRs in 4 games. He now has 5 HRs across 2 levels in 15 games. He hit 8 HRs total in 72 games in 2024.

    Like

    2. I wrote about Fergus in spring training. It was just BP but he hit the ball harder and farther than anyone else I saw. One of his homer exit velocities this year was 114 MPH – Harper almost never hits the ball that hard. By the way Kemp pounds the ball his exit velocities are often in the 107-112 MPH range. What find Kemp was!

      Like

  63. Excellent bounce back game by Nola. Leaned on his cutter and less on his knuckle curve and it worked. Worked the edges with precision.

    Phillies said that Romano was tipping his pitches and he looked good today. Helped himself by knocking down that ball for the last out.

    We need to stop seeing Johan always bunting in obvious bunting situations. The opposing team knew what was going on and Johan is a terrible bunter.

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    1. That was my issue with Thomson, everyone knew a bunt was coming with Rojas. But at least he didn’t pinch hit with Stevenson I guess.

      Like

  64. Sounds like Marsh had a setback with his hamstring at Lehigh. He’s still arbitration eligible for the next 2 years so he’s not going anywhere, but you wonder if the Phillies will continue viewing him as starter level. Justin Crawford should be ready for 2026.

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    1. Marsh couldn’t hit AAA pitching and is a bad defender, especially in CF. Reads the ball poorly in CF

      Like

  65. Last week Rojas deferred to Sosa on a ball the CF is supposed to take. He heard it from Thomson and everyone else. Probably, because of that, last night he calls for a ball that Castellanos has all the way and Rojas gets nowhere near it. It costs Nola a run and the way the Phillies were hitting, possibly the game.

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    1. With the injury to Marsh, Rojas had yet another opportunity to prove that he’s more than a backup. It’s not going well.

      If Marsh’s injury drags on, you wonder how long the Phillies will wait before they get tired of the non production from CF and turn to Crawford. Would the Phillies be willing to wain until June?

      Like

  66. Otto Kemp has made me a believer. He absolutely rakes. His hard hit % is 54%. He hits lefty pitchers better than righty. He isn’t pull dominant, 33% oppo. He takes walks. Doesn’t strike out too much given power profile. I really think that bat can play.

    I really want to see him against MLB pitching. But I could definitely see a scenario in which we move Bohm for a BP piece and make Kemp our 3B. Again I want to see him against MLB pitching first. But I am very intrigued.

    We need to make a trade to get a bullpen arm. I would rather trade Bohm than Crawford, if we feel that Kemp could be a regular. So we need to see him at MLB level.

    We know what we have with Bohm. A low OB% hitter without power. He still doesn’t take walks or hit for power. He is a mediocre defender. Fine but nothing special. He is a contact hitter. But he rarely changes a game.

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    1. Nobody is trading for Alec Bohm. Teams might be interested in him as a change of scenery candidate but not at his present and future salary. Teams will wait until the Phillies DFA him at the end of the season.

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        1. If Bohm asks for $12M in his final arbitration year and the Phillies are not sold on Bohm as the 3B, will the Phillies really go that route? He’s making $7.7M in 2025. Will the Phillies try to badmouth him to pay him $10M for 2026?

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          1. He had a 3.5 fWAR last year. he is not getting DFA’d because he got off to a slow start. that doesn’t make sense. I think the current value of one win is $8 mil. so $12 mil is equivalent of a 1.5 WAR player. I understand that he is currently at negative 0.4 war, but one bad April doesn’t make him a DFA candidate.

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            1. If Bohm ends the year at 1.5 WAR (which is a stretch at this point), do you really want a $10-12M Alec Bohm for 2026? Or would you rather roll the dice on a cheaper Otto Kemp?

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    2. Why did they refuse to play him in LF???? He needs to play LF every day, his bat won’t get into the lineup in our infield without an injury. Sosa hardly is playing now and he was taking at the ML level already.

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  67. Been wanting to see more of otto since seeing those EV numbers late last summer.. he did enough in spring as so far in AAA… 7 HR’s…. can’t just keep letting HR’s go to waste down in AAA if dude is a dude… make it happen

    Weston isn’t exactly… Proven.. sure he’s fine.. but he’s coming off a injury that makes all motions prone to hurting himself again… i’d like to see Otto as next man up if either Weston doesn’t perform well enough in time or gets injured.. he is 30 after all.. cycle be damned his leash is short with Otto raking

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    1. Even if Otto replaces Weston Wilson, he’ll still be the backup. How many ABs will Kemp realistically have? Edmundo Sosa has an OPS of 1.02 and he’s only played in 13 games. Kemp would be lucky to get 1 start a week.

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      1. I hear you, but you know what really made a difference when the Phillies nearly went all the way in 2022? It was Topper’s willingness to play young guys, give them a real chance and let them develop. Instead of just throwing the same guys out there, he took risks and it paid off rather than just doing what was conservative. If he wants better results this year, then he’s going to have to do that a little and perhaps more than a little. If Kemp is even close to this good, he could be a huge asset in this line-up and they are going to have to find ways to get him at bats.

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        1. somebody has to take over Kody’s late inning heroics.. always gotta have thump on the bench. would be nice to just have it in the everyday lineup really but what are you going to do

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        2. I don’t have a problem with Bohm losing ABs to Kemp. But if the Phillies go that route, there’s no going back. Bohm is done as a starter for the Phillies and there’s no reason for him to be on the roster for 2026.

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  68. Barring additional injuries, I think the Phils will continue to push the AB’s for Crawford, Kemp and Rincones.

    I don’t see the Phils adding any of these 3 to the 40-man unless one completely ‘goes off’ and even that won’t happen until the Phils have seen a healthy Marsh and Weston.

    You know the 4-man bench will include Sosa, a back-up catcher and a back-up center fielder. A healthy Marsh presumably replaces Stevenson. There’s no point to promoting a leading prospect if you can’t figure out a way to give him/them regular use at the MLB level.

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  69. Trading Bohm? They would have a better chance in being able to move him if he is packaged with someone else…maybe Marsh and/or Ranger.

    As for Otto…needs regular playing time, not Sosa time. If Harper is sold on his bat, then I am sold on him. Though apparently the Phillies see something with him this year other than regular duty…. they seem to be prepping him for versatility jobs as he has been mixing in playing LF and 1B these last few weeks.

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  70. I don’t know what the Phillies are doing with the backup catcher role. There’s a solid defensive catcher in AAA, with an OPS of .815. In fact, he’s a career .272/.371/.405 hitter in nearly 900 plate appearances in AAA. They say he’s a good clubhouse guy, too.

    I’m just kidding . . . sort of. It highlights that there is big gap between AAA and MLB. For example, Stubbs’ AAA OPS for his career is 175 points higher than his MLB OPS.

    FWIW, in nearly 900 plate appearances in AAA, Marchan has a .238/.328/.328 batting line. In other words, at AAA, in about the same number of plate appearances, Stubbs has been a FAR better hitter than Marchan. Of course, neither of them is starting caliber at the MLB level . . .

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    1. Marchan is much younger, is an elite defensive player and has more offensive upside. He needs an extended chance. Stubbs is really a marginal back-up over many years. We don’t need more of that right now.

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      1. I’m not suggesting Stubbs come back. Just highlighting the wide gap between AAA and MLB. And also highlighting that Marchan, with a career .656 OPS in AAA, is not likely to ever be a first division regular

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  71. Jarred Kelenic was supposed to be a can’t miss prospect. He was a top 10 pick, eventually became a top 10 prospect. His career minor league OPS is .908. Seattle called him up at age 21. He couldn’t hit. 3 years later, he was traded to the Braves as a change of scenery candidate. He still couldn’t hit. Today he was sent down to AAA at age 25.

    The morale of the story? Nobody knows how prospects will react when they get up to the bigs. Anything can happen.

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    1. Interesting….he really had no red or even caution flags coming up thru the minors….in Triple A over three seasons 2021 thru 2023 was over a .300 hitter…peripherals were good…..K rate under 22% was decent. Perhaps Seattle rushed him at 21 and 22 years old to the majors.

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