191 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion 3/31/2025”

1. Noticed Jim on Reading you have Keaton Anthony in the OF…still assume they will have him shuttle between the OF and 1B. Which is a good thing for him… versatility will help him in the long run.

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   1. Anthony will not play the outfield – strictly first base

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   2. I only saw Anthony play first base in the ST games he made the field for the Phillies. But they listed him as OF on their webpage and their press release. Agreed, it sucks to be first base only in this organization. Especially with Harper anchored there for the foreseeable future. We only have to look at Darick for a reminder.

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      1. With Schwarber still hitting HRs, it’s a near lock that he’ll be re-signed to at least a 2 year deal. So any 1B/DH prospects will be blocked for a while.

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2. Jim. I agree on Kepler. I have always liked him from his Twins days. Hope he can stay healthy and have a great season. Yes, keeping the regulars healthy will be important this year. Injuries are always an important factor to success.

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3. To your thought about Sanchez, Jim, they said on broadcast that it was precisely because they wanted him to start at home because of his splits last year. I’m pretty sure those splits were an anomaly. But hey, if it works it works.

   And yes, thank goodness we don’t have a repeat of Merrifield this year. Kepler’s swing has looked very good thus far. Just gotta keep him healthy.

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4. Think they wanted to have Sanchez start the home opener mainly because there is some prestige with getting that assignment. I suspect the home/road splits played some factor.

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5. Romus. Are you singing these Torpedo bats? They seem to be the Hot topic these first few days.

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6. Kepler’s swing reminds me slightly of Chase Utley’s but perhaps that is just because they are both left handed. He has a short quick swing that is deadly against inside pitches…he just pulls his hands in and drives the barrel through the zone. What are the chances he puts up 30 hrs? If he stays healthy, I see him likely hitting 20-25 with a .250 – .265 average.

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   1. Stranger things have happened, but Kepler’s career slash is:

      .238/.318/.430

      After his age 26 season (where he posted his highest WAR of 4), he’s been barely starter level (~2 WAR per season). I think we need to temper expectations a little.

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      1. Every time I saw Kepler play the Phillies over the years he hammered the ball and was a thorn in their sides. Kepler is a fine athlete from what I can see and he has filled out significantly in a good way (he’s just strong – not overweight or too bulky). It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he put up a 3-5 WAR season this year – I think he has that in him (one year he hit 36 homers for the Twins). It would be nice if he were a righty, but otherwise, it appears that was a smart signing (and supports my point that DD makes his best moves when his hands are tied, which is counterintuitive but seems to be true).

         Look for all of our (legitimate complaints), the Phillies put a line-up out there where the number 9 hitter (Marsh) is like a 4 WAR player or a legitimate super sub (Sosa). It’s an unusually deep line-up.

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7. Who is the minor league reliever or two, that could be a sleeper to be a high end, late inning arm late this season? I’m not counting Painter here but someone else?

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   1. Andrew Bechtold, Daniel Harper, Luis Avila, Tristan Garnett and Titan Hayes

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      1. What do you think about Andrew Baker if his control comes around?

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   2. I got nothing personally, but I’ve been told that Daniel Harper is a guy worth keeping an eye on. Big arm. Command and secondary will dictate how far how quickly.

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8. I think in 2025 and 2026 combined, we will see six position players originally signed and drafted by the Phillies make their MLB debut. I think you have to go back to the 70’s for a similar two year period. I’m confident Lee (Tigers), Crawford, Miller and Rincones will have their MLB debuts before the end of 2026 and I think Kemp and Kroon are probable.

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9. Jim: How long do you expect Tait to be at Clearwater?

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   1. Eduardo Tait is 18, he’s almost a full 2 years younger than Dante Nori. Looking at the spring breakout game, his defense has a long way to go. Unless he turns into Buster Posey, I think the Phillies will take it easy with him. He’s at least 3 years away.

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      1. I came to the same conclusion that you came to watching that game, even wondered if maybe he was better suited for a different position. Just wondering if Jim being closer to the subject had additional takes on his development.

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         1. He’s 18, he has an enormous offensive upside, he has a great arm and he is much, much, much more valuable as a catcher than he would be as a left fielder or first baseman, so I expect them to give him every chance to develop and succeed. And they should!

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   2. Me? I don’t have a problem with one level per year. But it appears Luke Merton likes to test prospects with early promotions. He may be more aggressive than Mattingly. So, maybe another late July promotion this year. If his catching continues to improve as the Phillies have said, an ETA of 2028 seems reasonable, even mid 2027 seems in play.

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      1. I wonder how the ABS will change what teams value regarding a catcher. Up until recently, receiving has been paramount. Stealing strikes. But that may all change starting next year.

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10. I don’t like the torpedo bats at all. It gives an unfair advantage to the hitters. It’s the almost equivalent of a big barrel bat from youth base ball. Granted you need to find the barrel. I do think you will see exit velos increased with the possability of increased injuries to pitchers with balls coming back up the middle. JMO

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    1. I love it!!! The pitchers with their high velocity improvements have made baseball boring again and offense has been anemic league wide. More hits and homers, please. It’s about the time that the hitters took back the spotlight.

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       1. Agreed. It is within MLB specifications and is totally legal. One of the ESPN shows this afternoon pointed out that there were only 6 or 7 who hit .300 last season. The torpedo bat helps but there is more needed to bring balance to the pitcher/hitter confrontation.

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11. The Clearwater roster has been released. I inserted their roster information in the article above.

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    1. Jim:

       “Outfielders: Carter Mathison, Dante Nori, Avery Owusu-Asiedu”

       …any word on Griffin Burkholder’s location to start?

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       1. Burkholder started last fall at Clearwater, it seems likely he would go back there. He was impressive in ST.

          By the way, I’m saying again that a lot of guys impressed me in ST, but three who really stood out (among others) were Dante Nori (this guy is like a Lenny Dykstra clone – I love him), Devin Saltiban and Aroon Escobar. The Saltiban BP was in the “take your breath away” category – he positively pounds the baseball and has a great, strong athletic build. He has serious star potential if he can consistently make contact, as does Escobar who can pound the ball and is very reminiscent of Jose Ramirez.

          And don’t completely lose site of Cade Fergus – he’s incredibly far off the radar I know, but nobody consistently hit the ball farther in bp than he did.

          Nothing here takes away from the higher profile guys we all know – Miller, Tait, Kemp – still have high hope for all of them and didn’t see all of them in BP or games (did see Miller – he fit the bill).

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       2. Romus, Burkholder had all of 2 plate appearances before he was shut down by a leg injury last year. He was cleared to play this spring and suffered another injury. He’ll be in Clearwater once the training staff clears him again.

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          1. Thanks Jim…….hope he does not keep getting the injury bug.

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12. I hope Nori is a Lenny Dykstra clone without the personality defects.

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13. Interesting to me that Hen-Wui Pan is on the Reading roster after missing most of last year.

    Jim, do you know if he will be healthy to start the year?

    Thanks!

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    1. Sorry, typo … Wen-Hui Pan

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       1. never mind, I see now that he will miss all of 2025 as well.

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    2. He won’t. Pan Wen-hui is starting the season on the 60-day IL.

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       1. Thanks … this is what I saw that was the foundation of my comment that he would miss the entire year.

          https://philliesminorthoughts.com/phillies-2025-top-prospects/#pan

          2025 Outlook: Pan will miss all of 2025 while he recovers from surgery. His timeline means that he likely won’t appear in any formal game settings.

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          1. Also reported by Matt Gelb

             https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5904868/2024/11/07/phillies-offseason-trades-free-agents/

             Wen-Hui Pan, a hard-throwing bullpen prospect, will undergo Tommy John surgery this month. Pan, 22, was slated to pitch in the Arizona Fall League but never made it there. The righty complained of elbow soreness near the end of the minor-league season. He will miss all of 2025.

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          2. I don’t read and answer comments from the articles. I read and answer from a comments section available to me as the editor. My “He won’t” was in answer to your question if Pan would start the season healthy. You should be able to tell from the indenting of the comment. I knew about Matt’s projection and the other Matt’s article. I also knew Pan was having season losing surgery well before either of them posted their stuff.

             And to be clear, you can miss an entire season from the 60-day IL. Teams sometimes hedge their bets with a 60-day posting until they need the spot for another 60-day post (there’s a 15-player limit in the minors). Then an older 60-day post that will miss the full season will be posted on the Full-Season IL. Why do it this way? A player on the 60-day is still eligible for the AFL, Full Season IL aren’t

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14. Not sure if it went unnoticed but Crochet signed for 6/$170 and Jackson Merrill signed 6/$135

    I’m Skubal is happy about that as the fewer SPs on the market in 2027 the better for him.

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    1. The Merrill deal is great for the Padres, he looks like a star already at age 21/22.

       There’s not that much of a discount for Crochet but he’s still young at age 25/26.

       Who is Skubal’s agent? Scott Boras. No early deals which means Boras will likely ask for Gerrit Cole money (9/324) for Skubal.

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    2. Interesting on Merrill…at 20 he toiled in San Anton—AA ball and was not particularly outstanding, but good metrics…273/.338/.444 in a little over 200 PAs….but last year the Padres took a gamble on him after spring training and it has paid off so far.

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       1. How often I wonder is it that all that stands between a prospect being a really good MLB player is their belief in self and the orgs ability to share full on in that same confidence.

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          1. It has worked out well so far for both parties. He was a late first round pick—27th—so there was a good book on him come draft time for the Padres.

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          2. There’s a lot more luck involved. Teams just don’t know how players will react/adjust once they get to the bigs.

             Dylan Crews was the #2 prospect and he’s struggling so much the Nationals had to drop him to 9th in the batting order.

             Remember Carter Kieboom? At 1 point, he was a top 25 prospect. His career minor league OPS is .820. He slashed .303/.409/.493 as a 21 year old at AAA. We would be going crazy if any of our prospects did that. Last March, the Nationals DFAd Kieboom.

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             1. Yes there is a measure of luck involved…there are those high picks that just do not make it as expected when drafted and then someone like an obscure late drafted HS player like Logan O’Hoppe shines.

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             2. I remember Carter quite well…

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15. What are your thoughts on Jordan Viars development and did he make any improvements in his contact rate?

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    1. Jordan Viars (currently age 21) has now spent 4 years in the minors and the highest level he’s reached is High-A last season. His career minor league slash is .228/.330/.374. He needs a change of scenery.

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       1. I thought some early injury issues may have delayed his development. I’m sure this is a big year for him and if he can get consistent playing time and improve his contact rate he may have a chance to move up in the system because of his power.

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          1. I don’t recall Jordan Viars every being on an Injury List.

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    2. Jordan Viars can hit a fastball. He needs to recognize and hit (or layoff) the other offerings in order to survive.

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       1. I believe he incurred an ankle injury in his first season. I have seen some videos of his hitting homers off offspeed pitches. So there is always hope.

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          1. Okay, he has never been on an injured list. Is that clear enough for you? Go check his player page if you’re not going to believe me. And if you’re going to insist that he can hit off-speed pitches off a couple videos, then you obviously know better. Don’t ask for the opinions of others if you’re not going to listen.

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             1. why so hostile. Baseball America prospect handbook from a few years ago when he was rated a # 13 Phillies prospect mentioned an ankle injury. I was just keeping the conversation going and light.

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                1. I’m very careful when I reply. My opinions are really facts disguised as opinions. You want to engage with someone, don’t try it with me.

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16. The positive: Taijuan Walker went 6 innings and looked great

    The negative: Walker was facing the Rockies, a team that will get close to losing 100 games

    Any time Walker does well, I’ll take it. And thankfully, he’s missing the Dodgers and his next start will be against the Braves.

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    1. Assume you need your 5th Starter for 25-27 starts, we’re 1-1 in “A Grade” Starts.

       ANYTHING better then 5IP / 3R is a blessing.

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17. Well said, I can’t argue with anything you said!

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18. Good to be 5-1 heading into a matchup with what is likely the best all around team in baseball.

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    1. A good test for the Phillies. Nola, Luzardo and Sanchez will have to be on their game. Hopefully they can shut down the hot Ohtani and Conforto, who gas come on for the Dodgers. And believe it or not, Tommy Edman leads them in HRs

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19. How volatile are relievers? David Bednar was an elite closer that generated 6 WAR in 3 years. Pretty sure a lot of discussions were had here about the Phillies trading for him. He had a bad year last season and with a poor start this season, the Pirates have demoted Bednar to AAA. Now there’s talk about some teams trying to do a “change of scenery” trade for him.

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    1. If Pittsburgh would eat about $4 million of his salary, this would be a nice gamble for the Phillies to take. I think they are short one BP arm just as they were at the beginning of law year – which is why they had to make the trade for Estevez last year at the trade deadline. If Bednar works out, they won’t have to do another Estevez type of trade.

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       1. I meant to type at the beginning of last year.

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20. Freddie Freeman to the IL. Don’t know how important this is for the Phillies’ series; he hasn’t played since March 29th. They went 3-0 and swept the Braves without him.

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21. Rich, sorry for being so short with you. I did further research and found that Viars did indeed suffer an injury when with the Threshers but wasn’t added to the IL or the transaction was wiped since then.

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    1. No prob.; my “Home Team” is Jersey Shore (I have been a partial plan holder for years) and I met JV a few times last year. He’s a nice kid and I just hope he improves and stays in the Phillies Org.

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       1. He needs to get going ..this is his 5th year in the system and turns 22 in July. He needs a big year and a promo to Reading after the mid-point. Then he can get back into the prospect talk. His slash up to now in approx 1000 PAs is .228/.330/.374 and he needs to really push up his BA and SLG %. If he cannot, it could be his last year in the system.

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          1. Agree 100% – fingers crossed

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          2. It’s not impossible, but a homegrown guy NOT in the team’s top 30 and making it as a starter is rare. More so when the player in question is still in the lower minors.

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22. Alvarado really makes things interesting, doesn’t he? He seems more relaxed in a hold situation than a save situation. I was surprised they went to him after having pitched the night before. I was convinced they would use Strahm. Is there any word on Strahm being held out the past few games?

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    1. No (none that I’ve heard), but they have basically said it’s like he’s back in spring training, so extra rest while he rebuilds his stamina and velocity is to be expected.

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    2. Strahm pitched on the 2nd and threw 30 pitches. Guessing that’s why they didn’t want to use him back-to-back.

       And prior to yesterday, Alvarado had been unhittable.

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       1. He also went back to being unhittable after giving up the run.

          Obviously not ideal to give up a run, but him being able to lock in and strike out 3 people swinging to get the save is at least encouraging. It feels like last year he would have just unraveled after the walk.

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          1. Sometimes Alvarado reminds me of the closer Earl Weaver had years ago who he nicknamed along the pack of cigarette role. Forget exact. Weave would always say he would smoke that many while he watched. It was funny but long ago. Alvarado has those moments.

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23. Phillies Dodger game on Apple TV tonight……it appears I will be listening to Scott F and Larry A and getting the highlights off MLB Network when they occur..

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    1. Worth mentioning to people that Apple TV offers a free 7 day trial. Just set yourself a reminder to cancel before they auto-renew and charge you for a month.

       Also, if you watch on Apple TV, do yourself a favor and utilize their option to watch the broadcast with the local radio team calling the game. Maybe it’ll be better this year, but the broadcasters they used in the past were awful.

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       1. I did the Apple TV free trial twice last year, it doesn’t look like I can get a free trial again this year. Oh well, I’ll keep track on MLB.com.

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       2. Thanks Dan for that information

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       3. Thanks Dan for that information.

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          1. I tried to hook up with them last year, but the game was over by the time I was able to get service. So, I said ….. nah I don’t think I really need this!

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    2. I saw that when I was looking at the upcoming schedules the other day. Guess I will be scroller watching. I can always get on the computer and keep track. I am hoping the Phillies can win 2 of 3 this weekend. I have had the Phillies announcers in 3 of the 6 games so far. That is good for early season games.

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       1. Don….MLB is racking in the revenue by selling some of the season’s game rights to Apple TV, ESPN+, Hulu, Peacock, Facebook et al.

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       2. Just Apple alone…..MLB has entered into multiple streaming deals, including a seven-year, $85M annual agreement with Apple TV+ for “Friday Night Baseball”. 

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          1. Everyone knows you can sign up for these services on a month-to-month basis, right? It’s not a contract. If you don’t want to miss the game, pay the $8-10 for one month, then cancel your subscription. People cycle through streaming services all of the time and just watch the shows they want to watch when they want to watch them and then cancel the monthly subscription.

             You could watch Phils/Dodgers on Friday, then watch Shrinking, Severance, Bad Monkey, etc. at some point over the next 30 days. Definitely not the worst use of $10.

             Go Phils!

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          2. They are all doing this. I am not signing up for all these things as mentioned below. But no issue for those who do. I miss enough due to other commitments to have a bunch of things. My Extra Innings is so good most of the time. I will ride with it. A game here and there I can deal with. When I was looking for other day, I also saw many games this week are on Fubo.

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    3. Romus, as a subscriber to ML.com, I get upset that I pay $25 a month to watch baseball games then get blacked out on the various pay TV games. I wish MLB would treat its subscribers better and live up to their promise that we can receive “all out of market games.” The consolation is that the radio guys are more fun to listen to.

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       1. I can sympathize with you. For me it is a principle thing. You can be nickel and dimed until it becomes plenty of quarters, And agree….listen to the radio guys is a better alternative. If I need the high lites of the games CSN runs them back and MLB. Network will also….like JT’s throwing out Ohtani to end the 8th and Taylor to end the 9th.

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24. Love it when a plan comes together!😅

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25. To the people who said we didn’t add to this roster, does Luzardo count? Btw, I said on Opening Day that between his twitching and poor results, Romano is going to be the most disliked man in the city.

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26. 3-1 tonight on the first full minor league night.

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    1. Big Casey Steward pitched a great game to start his season with Jersey Shore…one hit over 5 innings. Hopefully he continues this and gets the promo to face AA hitters by the end of the season.

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27. Could Otto Kemp be playing so well by June he becomes the 3B, with Bohm moving to 1B, Bryce to RF, and Nick to LF?

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    1. Could Crawford be playing so well that we need to move some people by mid-summer?🤔

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       1. Skeet….if the Phillies are sitting comfortably in first place come mid-July, I do not think Dave D will alter the chemistry of the roster by trading someone off it. He will do what he has done in the past…prospect or two in the system, for another MLB player.

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          1. I suspect you are right, if we are in a comfortable position, but wouldn’t want DD to get in the move the kids syndrome. We finally got some real talent and 2026 really isn’t that far away.

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    2. Unless somebody really struggles, there shouldn’t be any crazy movement like that.

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28. And is this Dromboski kid a distant cousin or nephew of that Dombrowski guy?

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29. List of Phillies FAs at the end of the season:

    Schwarber, Realmuto, Kepler, Suarez, Romano

    If the GM was Howie Roseman, we know what he would do. But with DD, I think he will try to re-sign Schwarber and Realmuto to 1-2 year deals. Kepler will be replaced by Crawford, Suarez with Painter, Romano with another FA.

    I think Kemp will get a chance to be a backup (taking Kody Clemens’ spot). Anything more than a backup, not sure if the Phillies will really entertain him taking 3B over Bohm unless he goes nuts at Lehigh, like 30 HR kind of nuts.

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    1. None will or should be resigned midseason. We need to see how the season and the FA market shakes out. Tucker will be highly sought after as will a certain 1B from Toronto. Howie would absolutely wait as well.

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    2. Guru, Sounds like a plan.

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    3. Kemp is growing into a true slugger. His homers aren’t cheapies – yesterday’s shot was 111 mph off the bat and 429 feet – that’s what a Harper or Schwarber homer looks like – literally.

       Good teams work in their best young players – he has a chance to really be something.

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       1. Kemp needs to have a breakout season. That’s the only way he’ll force the Phillies to trade Bohm.

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          1. Saw a replay of Kemp’s HR yesterday and it was impressive. The ball was a little down and Kemp dipped a bit (similar to what Trea can do) and golfed it out.

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30. This is year 5 for Mick Abel in the system and I’m not sure what kind of leash he will have to be a starter but I imagine it can’t be that long. If at the AS break, the results are not there, he needs to be moved to the bullpen. That’s now his best path to make it to the bigs.

    Thankfully, Michael Mercado’s experiment as a starter is over. Not sure if he will make it in the bullpen, but that’s ultimately where he belongs.

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    1. Perhaps Abel will be able to unlock it in another organization if the next few months he struggles…..Mariners seem to do well with developing young pitchers….and that is home area.

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31. Abel’s line today so far: 6 IP, 4H, 0ER, 0BB, 7Ks

    Kemp with his 3rd dinger of the season, now slashing 300/1.100.

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    1. His best start ever. Stubbs caught him. Coincidence?

       Miller not playing today. Was he hurt yesterday in 1st game?

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    2. His best start ever. Stubbs caught him. Coincidence?

       Miller not playing today. Was he hurt yesterday in 1st game?

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    3. https://x.com/MLBPipeline/status/1908611704528810040

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       1. Interesting that most of his SOs came on non-fastballs. How was his velocity?

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          1. After a glimpse through Statcast, it would be safe to say he sat 94.x – 96.x. He threw a 92.0 once and one or two 92.x during his outing, as well as touching 97.x once.

             He was still a solid 94.x – 95.x in the sixth. He throws a sinker 92.x – 94.x.

             His slider runs about 84.x – 86.x.

             BA had 16 swings-and-misses, 8 on his slider.

             His strike ratio was 67.42%, very good and one of the best he’s produced in the past year.

             And he’s got a low 80s curve.

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             1. Like to hear what he has to say about his outing, and maybe what he hopes to lie ahead for him this season.

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32. That is good to see. LHV has come out hot.

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33. And, on Kemp – those homers weren’t cheapies. Yesterday’s homer had an exit velocity of around 111 MPH and went 429 feet – folks, that’s what a Harper or Schwarber home run looks like. EV isn’t everything (and the homers don’t necessarily mean he can hit big league pitching), but it’s pretty good indicator. Great work to sign him as an UDFA. He’s 25 so his developmental stage is not over at all. Ryan Howard didn’t get regular big league ABs until he was 25. Utley didn’t break out until he was 26. Just saying.

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    1. He may be competing with Wes Wilson when the time comes-perhaps later this season I assume…..what role both will play will be interesting. As to beyond this season for 2026, now that could be challenging trying to get them enough playing time on the big club, barring any injuries to the starters. That is if they are still here and do come north with the team.

       Sosa did take advantage of Turner’s health absence if only for a week or so.

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    2. Hitting a ball 111 mph is no joke. That’s impressive at any level.

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34. lol … Glasgnow with a complete temper tantrum on the mud…

    it’s rain bro… how long you been playing baseball? My lord… what a baby

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35. Just the messenger …. no shoot’em por favor! Sporting News suggesting a Roberts for Crawford, Rincones, Jr. and Escobar. Would you do it?

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    1. Robert is off to a real slow start so the Chisox may not be interested in selling low on him. I think the Sox would be slow to move him now and teams would be wary to spend a lot on him.

       An outfield depth chart with Keppler, Robert, Castellanos,Marsh and Rojas looks in need of a move to subtract someone.

       How is Robert without his power and his price tag a step up on Crawford? I’d keep Crawford out of any trade package at the moment. In July the world could look differently.

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    2. Skeet….no way.

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       1. My sentiment as well, …….. I think you and I were in the same boat in Free Agency on Hernandez, quite a game today.

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          1. He is a good player.

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36. who is paying Robert’s salary ?

    I would promote Kemp or Ricones before making that trade. See if it’s even necessary.
    second I’m out because I want Tucker over Robert’s. I’d rather clear money for him.

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    1. Phillies

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37. I see we’re already at the point in the season in which I question why Thomson puts so much trust in mediocre and/or struggling relievers.

    I figured the silver lining of yesterday’s loss was that Strahm, Kerkering, and Alvarado would be available today. But the first two relievers in were Ruiz and Romano. In a 2-run game.

    I’m not sure I’ll survive this season.

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    1. Giving Schwarber the green light on 3-0 pitch was a mistake. Yates was missing with his splitter. After that I knew it was going to be trouble.

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       1. Agree, also didn’t like our situational baseball in the bottom of the 8th.

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38. There are some guys just destined to play for non-contenders and can’t square up in the brightest lights. Jordon Romano, I’m looking at you. I’ll say it now, the Phils do not have the BP to go deep in October. I see an upgrade there as priority 1. Let Robert and the need for a bat simmer.

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    1. Jordan Romano looks finished. He doesn’t have the velocity and he’s not throwing with any conviction.

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       1. It’s clear he doesn’t belong in any type of high leverage role. That was clear before today. If they lose, this one is on the manager.

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       2. I’ll push back on this a bit… im not 100% in this.. but there is some hope. I watched the 1st game. His velocity is obviously down, but it does tick up from time to time. I’m wondering if it’s going to take him longer to get back to the 95mph-98mph range from his injury. What is the book on him? Does he gain velocity in the season? IDK … it stinks though.. because the Phillies would be 2 bullpen arms short if the playoffs started today.

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          1. I am concerned your last sentence may be correct. I was a little concerned that BP might be an issue from the get-go. Time will tell.

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          2. Not sure how short they will be in a playoff series where guys like Ranger and Painter will most likely move to the pen.

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             1. Not sure how willing Ranger will be to go to the Pen in a walk year… it’ll be interesting. His current injury makes it more likely …but if he has the same success as last year.. just later into the year… thats going to be an issue imo

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39. I guess this is the new normal. The Rockies, desperate for pitching, has called up their top 25 prospect Chase Hollander. He was drafted 9th overall in 2023 and has a grand total of 122 career minor league innings under his belt.

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40. Andrew Painter will start for Clearwater this Friday. He’s scheduled to go 2, maybe 3 innings. The target for him to be ready for the bigs is July. It’s going to be interesting to see what happens when July comes around. It’s not like the rotation is the problem…

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41. Good series, nice to win against what is perceived to be the best team in baseball.

    Speaking of perception two pitching lines, one perceived as doing a bad job and one perceived as doing a good job.

    5.2 inn 6 hits 4 runs 4 er 1 BB 9 Ks 2 HRS

    6.0 inn 7 hits 3 runs 3 er 1 BB 2 Ks 2 HRS

    Personally, I think both lines are good, how about you?

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    1. I was a little surprised that the 5.2 did not finish the inning. Guess one won and the other lost the game. Team won.

       Good for team to take 2 of 3.

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       1. Don……it was certainly touch and go in that last game. Not sure what they will do with the pen down the road. I look at the Dodgers pen and they seem to miss the strike zone themselves. Maybe it is early in the season for relievers to get unwound.

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          1. Romus. Could be. The ever-changing weather I am sure does have some issues with consistency. One day 70 and the next in the 40s. It will get better. I have only seen Romano in the games now in the season. But I have concerns going forward. Hopefully he comes around. I saw Devin Williams today in last inning for Yankees. Who did they give up for him? He got beat in the bottom of 11th with that gift runner. Dodger’s pitchers today reminded me of what I watched two summers ago on an almost game by game basis. Not fun.

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    2. I think I’m fine with both performances considering who the opponent was.

       For Sanchez, it’s a little out of character. He doesn’t typically give up HRs. For Nola, it continues a worrisome trend of being HR prone. But if he limits the damage like that, he’ll be fine. He just did NOT limit the damage in his previous start.

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42. McGarry with 4 perfect shutout innings and 8 Ks!!

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    1. Wow! 38 strikes, 17 balls, awesome! Between McGarry and Abel, that was a good weekend for arms on the pharm.

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       1. I will take it, but will withold excitement on McGarry. It’s Double A. I wonder if his confidence is higher to throw over the plate or he has turned the corner on his control issues. Again will take it, but still a long way to go for McGarry… . That said it woudl be awesome as heck if can be a solid piece in the BP this year.

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43. It was just reported that the Blue Jays gave Vlad Jr 14/500! This will take him to age 40. I just don’t understand how teams are doing deals like this. Vlad jr would have to be 4 WAR every year just to be worth the contract. This is just not going to end well at all…

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    1. Vlad’s body-type will age badly.

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       1. A stupid deal by a desperate organization. The last half of that deal will probably be a disaster. He’s a perfectly good player right now, but he’s not the guy I want from ages 34-40. Yikes!!!

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          1. IMO – the MLB is going to have to allow for teams to write these contracts off at some point. Still pay the player, but just not have the same impact on the payroll. These are insane contracts. Once again, Bryce Harper looks like a steal by Middleton. I hope he just throws him money under the table vs redoing his deal, to keep him happy.

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             1. To heck with that! Let them sleep in the beds they made. Why should those teams benefit from their stupid decisions when team like the Pirates and Rays don’t have enough money to stay competitive?

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                1. If they are going to give a way to lessen then impact of these deals, then they need to significantly raise the payroll thresholds or… player deals need to not be avg payroll hits… let the Jays take a 45mil hit in the 1st so many years and then in year 14… take a 15 mil vs 35mil hit. Something has to give on that front imo. It’s crippling.

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             2. I think there’s next to no chance MLB will restructure the rules to forgive teams for their foolishness. Far more likely are moves in the direction of an NFL-style hard cap once the current player agreement expires after the 2026 season.

                So far the competitive balance support system is as far as the sport goes. But baseball has a problem other pro team sports don’t have when some teams have payrolls 3-4 times that of other teams.

                The NFL and NBA have amateur drafts that allow for the worst teams to right their ships. The amateur draft in baseball doesn’t have that immediate impact.

                If I’m the commissioner of the MLB, there’s no issue that concerns me more than that of competitiveness among the 30 teams. It has a bearing on revenues across the sport, the viability of the franchises and the remnants of the claim that baseball is the “national past time.”

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       2. yes but the blue jays had no choice, nobody wants to go there as a FA and they had to strike now since VBlad’s value will only rise. Also a reason so many young guys are signing extensions now is because a lock out will be here after next season. With the haves and the have nots financially moving farther away, this is going to drag on, players’ agents are advising their youngsters to get that $$$ now(except Boras clients). FA will continue to thin out and the ones that do go to market(Boras’ clients) will see their riches multiple by lack of supply.

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          1. And yes, VLad may float tro the Arctic Ocean by the time he gets halfway through that deal, cause he is gonna balloon up.

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          2. That’s ridiculous. Of course they had a choice. They would have been way better off to trade him and get a good return and then use the money on other free agents. He’s not the guy you give a 14 year contract to on a team that barely competes. It makes no sense.

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          3. The Jays had a choice. They could have approached him early, which my buddy (the Blue Jays fan) says they should have done. Or they could have traded him last trade deadline and gotten a haul from the Yankees.

             Now the Blue Jays gave him the 3rd highest contract in MLB history. For a DH? This is just terrible.

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             1. Right now, the template for Vlad Jr’s career should be Miguel Cabrera. Great hitters, similar body types. Contracts into their age 40 season. And Cabrera cratered at age 34 but not before having a HOF WAR career. Will Vlad Jr do that? Personally, I doubt it.

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                1. Yeah, Vlad’s good, but I don’t think he’s a Miguel Cabrera, although I do think his career will crater at some point much as Cabrera’s did and the Blue Jays will be saddled with a contract they have to eat.

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    2. Yes it would appear that way based on past contracts like that for players who seem to struggle with weighty issues and less defensive versatility. It may have been better if the Jays traded him once they were out of the play-off picture come July and load up on prospects like the Padres did with Soto.

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44. I see us adding a closer at the deadline. Really only three options: Finnegan, Helsley or Mason Miller.

    My best guess on cost:
    – Finnegan: one of Crawford, Tait or Chace and one other between 10-20
    – Helsley: same prospect price as Finnagan but they might be willing to take no prospects if we swapped Bohm for Arenado. So the deal would be Arenado + Helsley for Bohm.
    – Miller: I think he would cost us all three of Crawford, Tait and Chace. Not only because he is good and young but his contract is so cheap.

    If those are truly the options, I think that I would do the St Louis deal for Bohm. If that doesn’t work then I would trade Chace for Finnegan. Not sure I would trade Crawford or Tait.

    Mason Miller is so tantalizing. Just an elite shut down closer. But the cost is so high.

    What would you do?

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    1. I wouldn’t lose too much sleep over a Chace for Finnegan trade (basically, in the long haul, that’s Soto for Finnegan and Seth Johnson, which is a trade I’d take any day). What’s so dumb about this is that Finnegan was had for $6 million.

       That said, it’s still the first week of April and this team is 7-2 – my God, we have to stop panicking. Romano may still round into shape. One of our minor leaguers could turn out to be a good option. Jose Ruiz could take another step forward. Painter could be a high leverage bullpen arm for us in September and October. There are a bunch of ways this could all work out without us trading a lot of minor league talent. That said, with his reduction in velocity and our deep rotation, Chace is probably the one guy I’d be very willing to trade in the right deal.

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       1. Also if Abel is able to continue thru the season, as he did in his last start, they could bring him up as a BP piece later in the year.

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          1. Yeah, it’s one start – let’s not get ahead of ourselves. But the team really could use another young arm from the minors (not including Painter) at some point this year.

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    2. I have seen Helsley a couple times this season. He looked really good both times. I did not realize he is over 100. He was like 102. He would be my pick if a deal could be done. I do believe the Phillies need the guy you know is going to get the job done almost every time.

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    3. To early to tell imo… since the Phillies finally have internal options to potentially plug their early season weakness…

       That said… im doing the Miller deal if he is still crushing it this year. Phils need payroll leverage, and he is cheap … so it just costs you prospects…that you are supposed to be having a pipeline on. Lastly, the team can make moves internally that can make the loss of Crawford doable. … Chace… super easy to wave goodbye to for Miller… Tait really hurts since Realmuto’s situation is coming to a head.

       But… all that said… it’s a great year to go for it. Just get Schwarber extended, and it lowers the risk of back firing because both moves extend the window. Remember, Alvarado it FA soon as well.

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    4. Every tea leaf that you can read should tell you that the Phils are not currently interested in a Mike Trout, a Nolan Arenado or any encumbering long term contract. Everything the Phils have done since last year’s trade deadline is designed to create only short term commitments to the payroll.

       I expect a fresh look at the end of this season at which point success this season coupled with the development of young players will shape decisions to sign free agents and/or extend current players under expiring contracts.

       In line with this, the Phils will not trade for an albatross contract.

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       1. That’s probably the right take.

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45. 3 Series in to 2025 and holding a 7-2 record. I’m going to resist any temptations to be over reactive. Yes I share some of the same general opinions about the BP but its early.

    The Dodgers are clearly a team that is going to need health to repeat and that is from a bunch a guys that are notorious for being hurt.

    I will say this if you are over the LT and you need to trade some of your best prospects for a closer or even more BP help you should be fired as the GM.

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    1. Yes…….I think that is one of the reasons they may be reluctant to pull the trigger on a top notch reliever come July. Dave D may try the Estevez approach as he did last year rather go all in o a Miller, Finnegan or Helsley….at least that is how I see it.,

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    2. I don’t see “health” as being the key to the Dodgers’ dominance, except as it may relate to truly irreplaceable players like Betts and Ohtani and maybe Freeman. The Dodgers are built on planned redundancy. I don’t think they plan to have all of their guys healthy at any time. If all their guys are healthy they don’t even have room for them. I’ve never seen anything in baseball like this Dodgers team in terms of depth of talent. They are not unbeatable, but I view 105 wins as the absolute floor for them. They could easily win 110-120 games. But as the Phillies showed – like any baseball team, they are vulnerable in a short series.

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       1. Well said!

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       2. Freeman imho, is definitely irreplaceable. Hopefully he is aging, but man… to me … he is one of … if NOT… the purehitter in all of baseball. The dude can hit…. Really wish the Phillies signed him. Him & Will Smith together make that lineup a true PITA for any pitcher.

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          1. Yeah, I included him the possible irreplaceable player category. None of their starting pitchers is irreplaceable. They have like 6 or 7 guys who can pitch like an ace on any given day, especially once Ohtani can start again. It’s more than an embarrassment of riches – it’s hoarding.

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             1. Even though they were wild yesterday they bring in Yates in the 7th who had 33 saves last season. Phillies bring in Romano who did not play last season. It is riches almost everywhere. Plus, they do have some clutch guys in the lineup. Maybe not great players but guys who get it done in crunch time. Most likely NL title is going to have to go through LA. Phillies definitely have a shot.

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       3. They have so many pieces. I did ask last week if 120 is out of the question. Agree in 5 or 7 game series strange things happen.

          Romus. I am not in favor of the Estevez move like last season. That is how you go 1 -3 and done in 4 games. You simply cannot lose those close games when you have a late lead. Just my thoughts. Phillies need the guy who is going to get the job done 9.5 out of 10. Agree that is hard to have. Mason Miller has always been my favorite, but I would be fine with Helsley.

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          1. True….Not many were in favor of the Estevez deal post-play-offs. Though during the stretch drive he was a little above average with 6 saves in 20 games and there was room for hope come the play-offs, but………

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46. Don – I got to watch on NESN Helsley try to close out the BoSox Sunday afternoon. Just like that game in the playoffs against the Phillies a couple of years ago he couldn’t find the plate and walked a bunch of guys, blew the save and the Cardinals lost the game the following inning. Never know what will happen with closers.

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    1. Ciada. You are correct on the closer deal. I had all 8 games on for a bit after the Phillies game and did see it was in the 10th. Did not see him in the 9th. Red Sox pounded them last night. Wow.

       I flipped over to the end of the Yankees v Pirates.
       Devin Williams came in and gave up a hit to Tommy Pham to end that one. That was in the bottom of the 11th, so gift runner started on 2nd.

       You are 100% correct that none are perfect.

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47. Imagine…

    GM1 – Wheeler for 7IP, Alvarado 1IP… with Miller to close

    GM5 …rinse and repeat.

    Phils can beat anyone with that combo.

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48. Last point today …

    Phillies should be smelling blood… a sweep of the Braves could bury them for the season. They are a great team .. but being 9.0 behind this early in the season… is not where you want to be. It would cause some induced stress for sure, maybe some panic moves. T. Walker going GM2 hurts, im not sold on him but really hope they can pull out his start.. then go for the jugular in series finale.. Do it infront of their fans too 🙂

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49. Sweep would be awesome. But 2 out of 3 would put it at 7 less than 2 weeks in. Big hurdle early.

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50. We aint landing Mason Miller, DD has not shown the in-season aggresiveness required to make such a move come true(not that I blame him). Finnegan is a guy I could see here. I dont think I hated the Romano signing as much as I did the Walker one(Not sure I’ve ever been more accurate in my prediction, unfortunately) but to let Hoffman & Esteves walk and bring in someone who missed the majority of 24 only to look like he is still injured……not good. Especially when Esteves & Hoffman are locking down saves for the Royals/Blue Jays.

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51. The Phillies were talking about how Marsh was going to get his shot vs lefties but with the hot start of Edmundo, I can see a platoon happening with Marsh very soon. And obviously this means that Rojas will lose playing time. It’s anybody’s guess how long Edmundo’s hot streak will last, but the Phillies need to take advantage of it for as long as they can.

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    1. As they say….ride that wave for as long as you can.

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52. The best way to build the bullpen for the playoffs from where we are today is to have late innings being handled by Alvarado, Kerkering, Strahm, Painter, and one other starter, likely Suarez, and if a kid from the system makes a Kerkering like emergence, that’s 6. If Romano recovers, it’s a bonus. If Ross can be in the mix, bonus. Maybe you go get one other non-closer option that costs less to acquire, but we’ve had much better luck with kids coming up than “big name” acquisitions.

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53. Sosa in center looks good on paper. Wait till he misreads/misplays a few balls out there.

    Phillies are 7-0 and Nola is 0-2. Versus LA he pitched 6 in and allowed 3 ER. That’s a quality start.

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54. I like Ross for 7th and 7th/8th inning work. If I were ranking on a high to low leverage level of confidence for current bullpen arms, it would be Alvarado, Strahm, Kerkering, Ross, Ruiz, Romano, Banks, Hernandez. It’s hard to put Alvarado at the top of a BP destined for greatness in the post-season. To me, he’ll likely only be a #2 at best. Can Kerkering elevate to a #1/closer?

    I’d be surprised to see Painter play much of a role in the BP. It’s easier to monitor his workload as a starter, even as a 3 inning opener. Suarez? Stick him in the pen in his walk year and watch him go elsewhere next season. Would I still do it? I probably would.

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    1. Suarez is going somewhere else next year regardless of how he might be used in a playoff series where. Phillies aren’t paying him.

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    2. In 2006, the Cardinals put rookie Adam Wainwright in the bullpen and helped them win a title. There’s no reason why the Phillies can’t do that with Andrew Painter.

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       1. And the Braves used a previous great starter for decade like John Smoltz for four years in the pen…..as their closer no less, wracking up 150 plus saves…..though it was a different time and circumstance, and he was in his thirties after his surgery..

          But there is no reason why the Phillies cannot use Painter out of the pen for an inning, every few games.

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       2. Adam Wainwright had his Tommy John surgery in 2011; Painter had his in 2023. Facts being different from what they are, I would agree with you. Painter’s going to pitch in plastic wrap this year. The Phils have said it. You may not believe it.

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55. New discussion at

    Phillies Discussion 4/7/2025 | Phuture Phillies

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