2025 Phuture Phillies’ Prospect List

2024 Reader Top 30

This will also serve as your Phillies discussion.  Go Eagles! 

There was no interest in holding a Readers’ Prospect Poll last year.  So, I prepared the 2024 Phuture Phillies’ Prospect List.  I prepared a top 15 list this year.

I view prospects a little differently than most lists.  I tend to favor youth more.  I tend to develop prospect fatigue for those who are on lists for what seems like forever.  I’m skeptical of prospects who are older.  I tend to favor our guys over guys from other organizations.  I tend to push relievers further down the list.

I’m sorry it took so long to publish another discussion.  This article was supposed to be a lot longer.  I actually started it before Christmas.  I finally just deleted huge chunks to publish this.

Phutures Phillies Top Prospects – Unsure where Painter starts the season.  Doesn’t matter.  He’s our top prospect. After the top 4-5 prospects, who could be considered elite, prospects may be interchangeable.

  1. Andrew Painter should make his debut sometime before the All-Star break.
  2. Aidan Miller was the one prospect that a team could ask for that would end negotiations.  Future Phillies shortstop.
  3. Justin Crawford is going to be a starting centerfielder hopefully for the Phillies.
  4. Eduardo Tait can hit and has improved behind the plate.  Let’s hope he doesn’t outgrow the position.
  5. Alex McFarlane is healthy and ready to go.
  6. Gabriel Rincones can hit.  Hope he can stay healthy for a whole season.
  7. Jean Cabrera (on the 40) was the top pitcher in our minor league system a couple years ago.
  8. Griffin Burkholder produced a very small sample before his injury, but I’ve seen him at the Complex and his bat impresses.
  9. Aroon Escobar has taken groundballs at multiple infield positions.  I’m impressed with his bat, too.
  10. Mick Abel (on the 40) looks healthy.  I haven’t given up on him.  This has to be his year.
  11. Devin Saltiban is a youngster with some pop in his bat.
  12. Moises Chace (40) and
  13. Seth Johnson (40) – these two pitchers look like a steal for Soto.
  14. Dante Nori was last year’s top pick by the Phillies.  He’s put on 10-15 pounds of muscle.
  15. Alirio Ferrebus is a promising DSL player with a good bat.

So, what about some known guys who didn’t make the list.

I didn’t consider McGowan and Pan because they are going to miss the whole season.

Keaton Anthony, Otto Kemp, and maybe even Matt Kroon might be helpful to the Phillies at some point this season. Caleb Ricketts, too.

I like Micah Ottenbreit but don’t know what to expect from him this season.

Michael Mercado (on the 40) and Tyler Phillips (on the 40, no options) made debuts last season.  They’ll likely be among the first wave from Lehigh if needed.

I didn’t really see enough of Carson DeMartini, Carter Mathison, and John Spikerman to form an opinion.

Mavis Graves may surprise, and Dylan Campbell is a mystery.

Transactions

1/30/2025 – Clearwater released C Brahian Silva
1/30/2025 – DSL Phillies Red released OF Yonkelvin Polanco
1/30/2025 – DSL Phillies Red released C Declan Speirs
1/30/2025 – DSL Phillies Red released SS Leny Carela
1/30/2025 – DSL Phillies Red released SS Renair Manrique
1/30/2025 – DSL Phillies Red released OF David Freitas
1/30/2025 – DSL Phillies Red released OF Joseph Diaz
1/30/2025 – DSL Phillies Red released RHP Jousten Venegas
1/30/2025 – DSL Phillies White released RHP Edwin Castillo
1/30/2025 – DSL Phillies White released SS Denilson Aguila
1/30/2025 – DSL Phillies White released SS Cristobal Bena
1/30/2025 – DSL Phillies White released RHP Emmanuel Nunez
1/30/2025 – DSL Phillies White released OF Jose Marchan
1/30/2025 – FCL Phillies released CF Yemal Flores
1/30/2025 – FCL Phillies released RHP Eliecer Bata
1/30/2025 – FCL Phillies released LHP Claudio Gatier
1/30/2025 – FCL Phillies released SS Yemil Rosario
1/30/2025 – FCL Phillies released 1B Junior Marin
1/23/2025 – 2B Samuel Salcedo assigned to DSL Phillies Red
1/20/2025 – Phillies signed FA RHP Maicol Lauriano to an MiLB contract
1/20/2025 – Phillies signed FA RHP Albertt Medina to an MiLB contract
1/17/2025 – RHP Koyo Aoyagi assigned to Lehigh Valley
1/17/2025 – Phillies signed free agent RHP Koyo Aoyagi to an MiLB contract
1/17/2025 – CF Dylan Campbell assigned to Jersey Shore
1/17/2025 – LA Dodgers traded CF Dylan Campbell to Phillies for Future Considerations
1/15/2025 – OF Leonardo Carpio assigned to DSL Phillies Red
1/15/2025 – OF Dayber Cruceta assigned to DSL Phillies Red
1/15/2025 – SS Maykol Fernandez assigned to DSL Phillies White
1/15/2025 – C Luis Hernandez assigned to DSL Phillies White
1/15/2025 – C Gabriel Azocar assigned to DSL Phillies White
1/15/2025 – 3B Domingo Morla assigned to DSL Phillies White
1/15/2025 – SS Roiner Cespede assigned to DSL Phillies White

251 thoughts on “2025 Phuture Phillies’ Prospect List”

  1. I like this list Jimmy 🙂

    I’ll be looking for guys at Jersey Shore to see since that is now the closest MiLB park for me to see our prospects.

    I miss having Trenton with an MLB club. Just 15 minutes away I used to catch a lot of AA Phillies games each season.

    In doing so I also saw some really good players such as Aaron Judge. Heck if I want to date myself I even got to meet Nomar Garciaparra when that place first opened up and they were a Red Sox affiliate before becoming the Yankees affiliate.

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      1. Ok I can’t tell if you are joshing me Romus but no…

        I did not know RAJ directly but I’ll say I was pretty close with some who were in the circle at one time.

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          2. It would be nice to have have another option in Nj besides the shore… saw a few games up in Trenton, always enjoyed it… plenty of population, would figure teams would all want their AAA within very short distance of the pro facilities.. leigh is 65 miles so not far but not close.. would figure a potential strategic edge (maybe it’s banned) would be to get that AAA/Pro locations so close you can blur lines easier… an exercise i’ve never undertaken would be to search all franchise AAA/Pro facilities by distance and sort them then check performance etc

            interesting theory anyway, somebody else can have that one and run with it if so desired

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  2. I dug in more on Crawford…Most of the negative takes on Crawford have been centered around his high ground ball rate. That piqued my interest. How big of a deal is his 60% ground ball rate?

    The first thing that I checked was productivity of Ground Balls vs. other batted balls. Here are the stats:

    Type AVG ISO wOBA

    GB .239 .020 .220

    LD .685 .190 .684

    FB .207 .378 .335

    Looking at these states, I have two takes: 

    1. While a ground ball clearly has a much much lower ISO, it produces a higher batting average than a fly ball. So if you really had to choose, then it is better that an 80 grade runner hits a ground ball than a fly ball. 

    2. The only thing that really matters for a non-homerun hitter is line drive rate. 

    Imo, the second take is really the key point. Focusing on a player’s ground ball vs fly ball rate is really a distraction. The key to a hitter’s productivity is his line drive rate. MLB average for LD% is 21%. Crawford had a LD% of 19.7% as a 20 yo in AA. Here is the math of a player who has a 20% LD%, a 60% GB%, 20% fly ball using league average BABIP:

    PAs: 600

    Walks: 36 (6%)

    Sacrifices: 10

    ABs: 554

    K’s: 111 (20%)

    Homers: 12

      LD: 59 (20%)

      GB: 62 (60%)

      FB (x-homers): 18 (20%)

    Hits: 139

     – calculated BABIP: 0.323

    BA: 0.251

    OB%: 0.311

    Those stats alone with 70 defense (according to KLaw) and 80 speed stealing bags is a very productive player. Again that is basically a center field version of Brice Turang. Brice was a 4.7 bWAR player last year. That is certainly better than anyone else we have in the OF right now.

    That said, the BABIP on ground balls is based on the average MLB hitter, or should I say the average MLB runner. But Crawford has 80 grade speed, so you would expect a higher BA on ground balls than the average. As an example, Elly De La Cruz who also has 80 grade speed has a BABIP of .359 last year with a line drive rate of 20.7% and a ground ball rate of 46.3%. So there is upside from those numbers. 

    After digging in, I don’t care if Crawford improves GB%. Really, I am more focused on his walk rate. IMO the biggest improvement that he can make is drawing more walks. He has a low swinging strike rate and a very good contact rate. So I would like to see him be more patient. 

    I think that he is a really good prospect and has a real chance to be a multiple time All-star. 

    Liked by 1 person

      1. sometimes this is why you have to push at young age and possibly strike when the iron is hot. All bodys age different and a “prime” for many athletes is that 18-25 and not so much that 24-30 that mlb really seems to push still

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      2. Uh, Carl Crawford had 39.1 career WAR. If Justin even comes close to that, we would all take that in an instant.

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        1. The ceiling others have described is like a 25-40 WAR player (I’m not sure I agree but that’s how it’s been articulated), but, yeah, of course we would all take that.

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    2. I’m wondering if the modified shift since the rule changes is causing the negative outlook on Crawford. The follow-up question I woudl think is not neccessary the number of ground balls he hits vs if he is spreading those ground balls out to all parts of the field. As a scout, if he as consistently pullling the ball to one side, I’d be concerned that a MLB defender + a shift defense could nullify his bat. His elite speed should help him get some hits back, but that might be the source of the negativity on him. I do remember him getting a fair amount of 2+ hit games in a row. Im not concerned about it because of that. He still has to develop but he is trending in the right direction from what I can see. That defense needs to be for real though too if he’s going to be a GB/LD hitter. Defineltly an intriguing player since he coudl make up for a lack of line drives with a high stolen base total. That basically turns a single into a double. Thats pretty nice for run scoring.

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      1. again speed is such a fleeting skill that if that is the high tool you really have to capitalize sooner rather than later as it’s the first to always go when talking position players

        if the OF keeps pace at putting up no WAR out there come July (after they have seen Marsh and trotted Rojas out again) you have to watch crawfords numbers and the deadline and see if they want to put him out there a spell or trade him while value should be high still and we’ll need to fill whatever other hole has emerged from the grind

        his spring training invitee here should be fun to watch play out

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      2. Fangraphs doesn’t have direction by hit type, just direction of all batted balls, but he sprays the ball around. You can’t shift him. His 2024 stats:
        – Pull: 31.5%
        – Center: 25.1%
        – Oppo: 43.4%

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        1. Good info. Im not seeing the poor outlook that these scouts are projecting. Elite speed and SB skills are an amazing combo to have. If he is a ++ defender, he will push Marsh & Rojas out if they don’t bust out this year. Im just about sold on him. Just need to review his SO/BB ratio (I believe is good enough) and throwing arm … If all good I’d start penciling him in CF by mid season.

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  4. Appreciate the post Jim.

    Nice to see a few new names being tossed around.

    How is everyone feeling about Nori? From my perspective, seems like there is little excitement about him, like it’s a bit palpable as well. Not knocking him, just not seeing him name get thrown around yet. Obviously wish him well. Sounds like hes got a good work ethic if he put on muscle in the offseason.

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    1. I never feel great about older HS picks but way too early to say he can’t become a contributor at the MLB level.

      If he is going to be special at the MLB level then he will make JS before June ends. If he doesn’t that will be a negative tell. For me anyway.

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      1. Perhaps all the talk about Nori being ‘an aged HS pick’ and the downsize of that fact, has become a large motivator for him….he has bulked up more, so maybe more strength.

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    2. Jonathan Mayo mentioned on The Phillies Show that scouts just rave about Nori. He also didn’t seem to supportive of the older high school draftee criticism. I would give him a bit more chance to play before starting to worry.

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      1. Ha! I shoud’ve waited longer to post that! Very happy to be wrong. Im not sure if it’s a product of the pipeline being better than it has been in decades (possible the best ever) or we are all just focused on the top guys. It’s odd to be talking so little about our 1st round draft picks with this group. Hey… I don’t mind being wrong on this one at all. Glad to hear it’s just in my head

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        1. As I recall, the selling points on Nori were outstanding athlete, excellent hit tool, great plate discipline (we tend to undervalue this – we shouldn’t – it’s enormously important, especially for a contact hitter), excellent fielding. It’s not a bad combination of attributes.

          Liked by 1 person

  5. Alejandro Kirk of the Jays is a hefty fella. Hopefully Tait doesn’t get that big. I didn’t realize until we came into this seasons write-ups that he struggled defensively.

    Every club wants a C who is really good both ways but if I were running a franchise I would first and foremost want the defense, catch/throw and pitching staff management types. And I would never tie up large sums of money at the position.

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    2. Many catchers…especially the Latin ones…are on the hefty size…JTR and Stubbs are probably rare in that regard….both plus speed and trimmed. Marchan has got bigger since he was a teenager, as most players do, but he is not really a hefty guy either. They probably have Tait , or recommended a diet plan for him. I do not think he needs Ozempic just yet!

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  6. Good list Jim. I agree with most of the rankings but I am actually not very bullish on Rincones Jr. He has struggled to hit LHP in the minors and that is usually a big red flag. Last year he hit .189/.250/.243/.493 against LHP. As the saying goes, if you can’t hit minor league LHP then you won’t hit major league LHP.

    He strikes me as a platoon 5th OF type. Hope that I am wrong.

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  7. Kiley McDaniel’s top 10

    Philadelphia Phillies
    Farm system ranking: 17th ($188 million)

    Top 10 prospects
    Rank Name Position MLB rank

    1. Aidan Miller SS 13
    2. Andrew Painter RHP 21
    3. Moises Chace RHP 90
    4. Justin Crawford CF 114
    5. Eduardo Tait C 185
    6. Aroon Escobar 2B NR
    7. Bryan Rincon SS NR
    8. Griffin Burkholder CF NR
    9. Jean Cabrera RHP NR
    10. Dante Nori CF NR

    Name(s) to watch in 2025: Burkholder and Nori

    Nori was a big surprise last summer when he was selected with the No. 27 overall pick after he was generally expected to go in the second round, then the Phillies took Burkholder, a comparable prospect, with their second pick (63rd overall), paying both the same $2.5 million bonus. Nori is a year older than most of his peers but has every-day center fielder tools, and Burkholder was tracking like a first-round pick before injuries limited how much teams could see him last spring. Both could be top-100 prospects by this time next year with loud 2025 seasons.

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  9. Wondering aloud if now that MiLB rosters are drastically shorter than 5-6 years ago if the level of play/competition has drastically improved?

    Especially in lower levels where it seemed we would get many false positives on some guys.

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    1. The more MLBPA threatens strike with their more than over the top demands at CBA time…..the fewer minor league players there will be in the future……that is the logic of it.

      Just look at the draft…used to be 50 rounds or more just 25 years ago…..that is reduced to 20……in the future that may be 10/15 rounds. So the union demands more…..the total players in a system gets trimmed.

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      1. The reduction in the total players in the system was not a MLBPA issue. Rather, that was an issue of the owners trying to cut costs at the minor league level after they had to improve the treatment of minor leaguers following legal action.

        The MLBPA could care less about the minor leaguers – really, it’s entirely irrelevant to them, which in some ways makes sense (it’s not their constituency), but in other ways just seems callous and disturbing given the horrible way in which the owners treated minor leaguers (most of them didn’t really make a living wage and were treated like feudal serfs).

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        1. Domino effect…..cutting costs is part of capitalism to maintain a product or service’ s profitability. And agree….MLBPA does not represent minor leaguers and does not consider them a priority in the grand scheme of things…..just lately they are showing some empathy to their situation. But the owners have every right to maintain a profitable company……and lets face it…..they employ hundreds of FTE……players are the product and also just contractors.

          And as far as owners treating minor leaguers in the past…that is history….it is a whole lot better these days. In fact it keeps getting better for them, of course the total numbers are getting smaller every few years however.

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        2. I always looked at that differently and in the same way as college or trade school or military or any other training institution when embarking on a career.

          Interning is another parallel example.

          If we say there are 780 jobs (26×30) up for grabs or even if you want to extend that to 1,200 (40×30) you have to prove your mettle.

          I think about the vast number of careers some go into six figure debt for or their parents do and I don’t think the comparisons were the same.

          These kids were getting a unique opportunity others were not. Its not like they were being water boarded or anything and they could tap out whenever it was too much for them.

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          1. If we want to consider a theoretical framework, the fact of the matter is that the vast majority of minor leaguers never reach MLB. If we knew how to perfectly predict who would or would not succeed in this endeavor, we would need far fewer minor leaguers than we have at present. As we all know, predicting major league success for prospects is a far less than perfect process. The real question is, what is the minimal quantity of minor leaguers in development that a team could get by with without detracting from the quality of the major league product?

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            1. “The real question is, what is the minimal quantity of minor leaguers in development that a team could get by with without detracting from the quality of the major league product?”

              …in actuality, the fewer the players the keener the competition and only the most skilled players rise to the top. By expanding the number of teams, that a product gets watered-down.

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          2. What I could not fathom is how all 30 MLB teams…who all have their own academies in the DR…..maintain their profit margins from each academy. With all th service they provide for every person affiliated with the academy…from players, to coaches, to medical personnel, to administrative personnel, ….room and board and schooling for the kids…how do they break even. I cannot see the DSL play attracting many paying customers.

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            1. My guess is its not all that expensive to provide those services in the DR…

              Pennies on the dollar compared to what it would cost to provide the same services here in the US.

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  10. Keith Laws 20 https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6095809/2025/02/06/phillies-2025-top-20-prospects-keith-law/

    1. Andrew Painter, RHP (No. 12 on the top 100)
      Height: 6-7 | Weight: 215 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 22
    2. Aidan Miller, SS (No. 13 on the top 100)
      Height: 6-1 | Weight: 205 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 21
    3. Justin Crawford, OF (No. 41 on the top 100)
      Height: 6-2 | Weight: 188 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 21
    4. Eduardo Tait, C, Philadelphia Phillies (Just missed)
      Height: 6-0 | Weight: 175 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 18
    5. Aroon Escobar, 3B/2B
      Height: 5-10 | Weight: 180 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 20
    6. Devin Saltiban, 2B
      Height: 5-9 | Weight: 180 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 20
    7. Moisés Chace, RHP
      Height: 6-1 | Weight: 213 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 22
    8. Dante Nori, OF
      Height: 5-10 | Weight: 190 | Bats: L | Throws: L | Age: 20
    9. Mick Abel, RHP
      Height: 6-5 | Weight: 190 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 23
    10. Bryan Rincon, SS
      Height: 5-11 | Weight: 185 | Bats: S | Throws: R | Age: 21
    11. Griffin Burkholder, OF
      Height: 6-2 | Weight: 195 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 19
    12. Gabriel Rincones, OF
      Height: 6-3 | Weight: 225 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 24
    13. Carson DeMartini, IF
      Height: 6-0 | Weight: 197 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 22
    14. Seth Johnson, RHP
      Height: 6-1 | Weight: 205 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 26
    15. Alex McFarlane, RHP
      Height: 6-3 | Weight: 215 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 24
    16. Mavis Graves, LHP
      Height: 6-6 | Weight: 205 | Bats: L | Throws: L | Age: 21
    17. Hendry Mendez, OF
      Height: 6-3 | Weight: 175 | Bats: L | Throws: L | Age: 21
    18. Jean Cabrera, RHP
      Height: 6-0 | Weight: 145 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 23
    19. Wen-Hui Pan, RHP
      Height: 6-3 | Weight: 220 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 22
    20. Tjayy Walton, OF
      Height: 6-1 | Weight: 225 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 20

    2025 impact
    Painter
    Seth Johnson

    The fallen
    Griff McGarry

    Sleeper
    Escobar If he hits like I think he will, he’ll be in the top 50 next winter.

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      1. I think he was just talking about who might contribute to the big league club this year. He only mentioned that we might see Johnson coming out of the bullpen at some point.

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    2. Escobar top 50!

      Wow he really has a high projection for him. I can understand coming in the 80s or 90s if he hits like is expected……just did not see a jump into the top 50 .

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      1. It’s obviously very early in his career, but he’s 20 likely entering Clearwater. If he stays healthy and hits anywhere close to what he did last season, he’ll be top 100 for sure. Top 50 is a very generous projection.

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    3. For those who don’t have a subscription, KLaw was very high on Escobar and Nori. But not so much on Tait. Said he has a bad body for a catcher and his blocking and receiving is not very close. Implied that he may not be a catcher at MLB level but was very high on his bat.

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      1. That’s interesting.

        I raised concerns on this site about Tait’s body/frame and was sort of shouted down (he’s not fat and is very fit and just strong, blah, blah, blah), but I think it’s a legitimate concern. I don’t know much about his fielding prowess, but note the guy was the age of a high school junior playing with grown men, so maybe we can give him a temporary pass to see how he does this year.

        Glad Law loves the bat, but let’s say he’s not a catcher – what is he? You don’t exactly want a 19 year-old DH and maybe he’s a left fielder, but the value proposition is entirely different if he’s not a catcher. I get the concern there too.

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      2. True. However, I don’t know when KLaw or his people saw Tait last. By the end of the summer, the Phillies were very satisfied with Tait’s continued development at the catching position. I agree with Law that enthusiasm should be tempered for now regarding his position, but regardless of position he remains a prospect.

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        1. Agreed. I was one of the first people on this site who said, when he was 16, that his stats were the kind put up by an impact prospect and that he could be one of the team’s best prospects soon (and he now is!). His ceiling as an offensive player is extremely high.

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          1. Didn’t we have another biggish young prospect that could hit and not much else.. jahlyin ortiz or something i think it was? guess that didn’t pan out too well, hope this Tait fella fairs better

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            1. I think the difference between Ortiz and Tait is that Ortiz pretty much only had BP prowess. He never really translated that power to in game performance on a night in night out basis.

              Thus far Tait has shown his ability in game performance. Through almost 500 PAs he’s 313/371/867 OPS

              And doing all that at a very young age…

              Liked by 1 person

  12. Okay. Are you guys aware that the MLBPA negotiated with MLB to create a Basic Agreement for the minor leagues? Minor league players are now clients of the MLBPA.

    Regarding the capitalism part of the equation, there will be more minor league jobs lost. An outside hire came in and suggested cost cutting changes. Some have been put into effect already (lower limits on minor league personnel, fewer draft rounds); some are still to come. I think we could still lose one or two stateside levels (like Complex and Low-A).

    How? Well with NIL money becoming available to ball players continuing in college could become an attractive alternative. The NCAA loosening limits on coaches etc., MLB could turn the development of players over to the universities. And they can lower the number of draft rounds and lower the limits on minor league personnel again.

    I didn’t think they could eliminate Low-A due to the lengthy agreements with the affiliates. Seems they can incorporate more Draft Leagues for college age kids. Guess what? The players in the Draft Leagues are NOT covered by a CBA.

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    1. The next CBA may see more changes to the minor league scene. I think negotiations begin for that in the fall of next year-2026. It will interesting to see how the give and take between the union and owners play out.

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    2. That would be sad as I think it is perfect the way it is now. Diversity comes from having many opportunities to hone ones skills.

      No one path college or minors is best for all to develop.

      Seems like we are nearing or have reached an inflection point in the game. Especially when single players are being deemed worthy of nearly a billion dollars.

      And add the amount of hedge fund money that is pouring into ownerships of these franchises.

      Maybe it never breaks but it feels really stretched at the seams right now.

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      1. Let me be clear. “Allowing universities to take over development” is a concept I came up with to justify the lower player limits and fewer affiliates imposed by MLB. Otherwise, I can’t imagine why reductions are necessary. Development is costly. An outside firm might blanch at the high cost and the relatively low results of baseball development.

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          1. Manfred, I am guessing, would prefer baseball go the way to player development like the NFL and to some degree the NBA…where colleges pick up most of the early years of the so called professional development. Makes sense…..players at 20/21 years old are more mature….both physically and emotionally

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    3. Yes, I totally understand they settled the minor league dispute. My only point was that this is likely one of the reasons that they are reducing the number of leagues and number of players – it’s not the only reason, but I think it’s a significant causal factor.

      As far the MLBPA improving the lot of minor league players all I can say is that this has NEVER happened. The MLBPA is focused on improving the situation and benefits of their constituency, major league players, and nothing else. Historically, they cared nothing about the plight of minor leaguers. As I said, the changes in the minor leagues occurred due to law suits brought against MLB largely for allegedly breaking the law in numerous respect – which I think they did.

      The NIL money is very interesting. I don’t think it’s going to affect top draft picks, but if you’re a guy who might go in say the mid to later rounds and you’re getting good NIL money, maybe it does make sense to go to college and stay there until you’re done.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Actually, you had more than one point. You also stated that the MLBPA “could care less about the minor leaguers”. I think you are wrong, and that the existence of a minor league basic agreement makes minor leaguers a separate constituency for the MLBPA.

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        1. Jim – thanks for the information. I’ll admit that I don’t know the new mechanics of this arrangement. Are you saying that minor leaguers are now part of a CBA controlled in part (or in whole) by the MLBPA? How does that work?

          As for historically, my firm view was that the proposals focused on what was in the best interests of major league players.

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          1. Hey, I just looked that up, and admit that I was wrong. I hadn’t realized that minor league players are now part of the CBA, which historically was not the case. So, yeah, if they are part of that union, then I agree it is relevant and the union is obligated to protect their interests.

            Day of learning for me. Thanks for the information.

            Liked by 1 person

          2. Sorry for the delay responding. I’ve been under the weather the past couple days and am only today getting back to my laptop.

            My understanding is that MLBPA has taken on representation of the minor leaguers with this document. A group has been created within the MLBPA to oversee the needs and requirements of minor leaguers and is comprised of several of the former players and lawyers who represented the minor league players in recent lawsuits against MLB.

            I’ve attached a link to the agreement. I’ve only read through it twice. Some (most?) of the language is beyond my understanding. A couple more readings will be necessary before I can wade through the legalese of it. And I agree that historically, the MLBPA has sold out the minor leaguers for the benefit of its own constituency.

            Click to access 4d23dc_0a4c30c6387a4d8dbbf1707e7c4d6e2c.pdf

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    4. Jim. I agree completely with you and the NIL and colleges going forward. Plus, beginning this year schools now have more scholarships available as well for baseball and softball athletes. The NIL is crazy for basketball and football and there are some in the non-revenue sports who are doing really well in the NIL era as well.

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  14. Romus. These would be the players you played against. LOL Saw a Phillies card of Connie Ryan I think it was.

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  15. Actually, rumored that Romus mentored Ryan’s 4-16-1953 performance with Phillies to his 6 for 6 game (a record at the time) including 2 doubles, 3 runs and an rbi ….. There is much more to Romus than just “singeing bats”.😉

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    1. I was a baby. 6 for 6 is really good. No wonder his card is on this list. Bet it stayed the record for quite some time. Romus must have really done a great job on the bats that day. Connie Ryan’s was smoking hot.

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      1. In fairness to ROcco, the MLB offseason has been a dud to all teams with the exception of the NYY,NYM, and LAD. PHI, AZ, and TOR got thrown a bone.

        MLB needs to fix this. Too many of the last 5+ years have now felt like this. I propose they try to replicate the trade deadline by grouping players into tiers. Tier A must sign by a specific date as to not hold up setting the market, if they can”t agree by X date, then they lose the ability to sign for a max deal. The market should be somewhat set imo, to prevent such crazy deals. Tell the teams what you are looking for at the start, if no one signs you, you drop your price by 15%… move to the next tier. Keep repeating.

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  17. Usually my favorite part of the Super Bowl being over is that baseball is not far behind but last night was a very special gift and bridge to my favorite sport season.

    The story lines for 2025 are still set on the back burner but I’m trying to remember a season where you had 3 major contributors on the final year of a deal.

    JT, Kyle and Ranger are all very loveable guys but I’m not sure we should extend any of them.

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    1. DMAR….I think JT and Kyle will be brought back with team friendly AAV two year deals……Ranger looks to be a goner to greener pastures. I am sure he wants a 6 or 7 year contract length.

      Now the question remains....who will wear the Mummer’s Custom this time on Friday. Maybe Kelce will bestow the honor to friends Johnson or Mailata.

      Liked by 2 people

      1. My money is on Mailata,or Kelce being bought in to do it again. He was basically with the team the entire year anyways.

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          1. Thought that as well, but if he comes back, from what I heard you don’t have the same offseason signings – SB, CJGJ, Baun. Your best argument would’ve been to trade Reddick and keep kelce, but Huff was supposed to be good so. It all worked out minus Kelce getting a 2nd SB ring. I’ll take it!!! Back to Phillies talk

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      2. AJ Brown ……. visualize …… Brown in a Mummer’s costume ……. bicycling with his book “on excellence” in one hand with all the pandemonium of the event …. sweet!

        Liked by 1 person

      3. Tucker is the only impact FA I see for next year and I imagine there will be competition for his services probably starting around the $33-35 AAV mark.

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    2. Schwarber is no brainer for me. He’s a DH. The only reason you wouldnt, would be if you think the ability to put other players in the DH spot would increase the teams chances to win.

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  18. Devils advocate time … 20/20 hindsight …

    What team is better… current team .. or

    Trade 1 – Bohm, Cabrera,+ prospects to get Tucker minus the Top 5.

    Trade 2 – Schwarber for BP arm + middling SR

    Sign Bregman

    Turner/SS, Harper/1B, Tucker/RF, Bregman/3B, Castellanos/DH, Realmuto/C, Stott/2B, Marsh/LF, Rojas/CF

    Rotation minus Luzardo, plug in a #4 for him. Bullpen, still has Romano,plus a Robert Suarez type player.

    My asterisk is Kepler. Not sure the Phillies could sign Kepler in this scenario, but would that tip your hand to this team configuration?

    This proposal is a result of a slow offseason, alright.. tell me how crazy I am.. My take is I’d prefer Tucker over schwarber. Bohm and Bregman are about a wash minus the plus defense for about 2 seasons. I Iike this lineup in the playoffs over the current team, especially with Kepler. The defense is improved as well… even the pen. I feel the currentt team is an arm short there, but there is the deadline so i assume it gets fixed then or one of prospects steps up.

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    1. You don’t make trade 1 unless you are ready to give Tucker $30m AAV for 12 years. I don’t think that they can afford that deal along with paying Bregman.

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      1. In this scenario – thought process was to go for it, without sacrificing too much of the future, while slightly increasing team payroll. It’s revisionist history but for fun…

        Schwarber,Kepler,& Bohm =38mil. Tucker & Bregman are 40-42.5mil depending if Bregman gets 24 or 26 mil a year. Add 8 mil to the payroll since it’s 100% penalty. In 2026, you have Bregman still, but I’d give tucker that money. It’s tied up in Walker & Castellanos now.

        It’s a more balanced team, at least for 1 year. Better OF defense. Schwarber, hate to lose him, but for tucker I’d do it. Lose some hrs, but overall improves team. Bregman vs Bohm probably a wash, minus the improved Defense from Bregman. You still have 4. SP that can win the Playoffs, and I probably put Painter or Ranger in the Pen for the playoffs to strengthen the pen.

        So do you want that team, or another top tier SP in Luzardo, but with worse team defense? You can make a few arguments either way.

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    1. That is very interesting….if I am reading it correctly….at age 30, a player who’s WAR was 6 at age 29 , is expected a WAR to be approx. 5.4 in his age 30 season with that 10% decline. Is that correct?

      Liked by 1 person

  20. Harper’s deal is looking like a steal at this point. He’s signed through 2031 where he will be 38. How tempted are you to do right by him and add those years to get his AAV up?

    Turner on the other hand probably won’t look so good at 40 in 2033..

    If you added Tucker in his age 29 season at $35 AAV for 10 years can you absorb those costs and capture a WS or two? I believe Tucker is a Tampa guy so we have a shot but the Yankees may outbid us which is fine.

    I think the Dodgers have a good chance of declining fast with Freeman and Betts aging, maybe not the next season or two but after that for sure.

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  21. The Phils seem intent on repositioning themselves vis a vis the luxury tax. I expect essentially no moves that would stand in the way of salary restructuring next off=season. This means they only pick-up expiring contracts this year, including at the trade deadline if a rental can be a difference maker for a contending team.

    If I’m right, we can put aside consideration of renewing Schwarber, Relmuto or Suarez before the end of the season. No Bregman signing. And no move for Tucker.that would only make sense if he were immediately extended. If Tucker gets consideration, it will only be in the process of weighing him along with other free agents next off-season.

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    1. With the Super Bowl fresh in the fanbase’s mind, I don’t see a carryover to a World Series without a tweak. Change nothing ……. nothing changes. That’s my take.

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      1. Skeet……speaking of changes…..Painter and Crawford could be late season spark plugs…..then there is Jesus Luz. to the rotation.

        Five Guys have to come around at the end …..Harper, Turner, JT, Schwarber and Castellanos.

        Plus maybe Bohm and now with local gal friend, along with Grizzly Adams Marsh and Stott will progress further.

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        1. Romus. Good post. Stars have to shine bright. The next line needs to make progressive steps. And some newbies need maybe surprise. Those all happen good things will take place.

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      2. Here is a positive outlook for the Phils this year. 2 years ago the Eagles lost in the Super Bowl. Last year they tanked at the end of the regular season then went out with a whimper in the playoffs. This year they won it all? Sound a little familiar?

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          1. I also saw that it is felt that Eagles will be able to bring most back in 25. We will soon find out if the Phillies have done enough to move into that area. Only time will tell. Agree with Romus some of the youngsters must make some headway this season. We are soon going to find out.

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  22. I saw last night on MLB Network that the Red Sox did an inside the locker room type special which is going to be aired on Netflix in April. It looks interesting from the trailer but we’ll see.

    My buddy got us great seats for the 3/31 home opener against the Rockies. Hopefully we break camp in full health. You can’t get anymore extreme than a series with the Rockies followed by the Dodgers.

    And hopefully we break camp without Walker.

    17-11 is my prediction for the first month of the season.

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      1. I like this deal, a lot. Specifically for team building & the fans. The players can make out with the teams not getting burned if a player has a significant drop in performance

        Short 3 yr deals with high AAV fit better in team payroll. It minimizes a team being strangled by the CBT penalties, forcing them into a rebuild. You can cut dead weight much faster, and one or 2 dead contracts wont kill you as much. I still like turner, I know some dont, but it woudl be nice to have an opt out well before 13 years, No?

        Everybody’s favorite pitcher did this, Trevor Bauer… which who btw is still available (unbelievable to me), thats a good trend imo.

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  24. Sox plan on playing Bregman at 2B because Devers wants to stay at 3B rather than 1B or where he should be, DH. They’re playing one of the best 3Bmen in the business out of position. Not smart.

    Now that the Padres have signed Pivetta I think they will be more motivated to move Cease more than ever now. Cease can bring back a lot and seeing that next year is his FA year, it makes sense.

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    1. DMAR……IMO Bichette is going the Cody Bellinger route…..began his career on fire and has more or less fizzled down a bit. Last year was a disaster for him…calf injury–missing a few months- then the broken finger at the end. So this year is critical for him. His best years were 2021 and 2023, he is looking to recapture that magic again in his walk year..

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      1. Bellinger dislocated his shoulder and he was never the same after that. Not sure what Bichette’s issues were last year but this is a big season for him and for Vlad.

        I wouldn’t sign either of them but that’s me.

        This GM seems to like hanging onto aging players. He can’t help himself especially when they are fan favorites.

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  26. Walker’s velocity is a good sign. He needs to get back to 95+ imo, and then maybe then he can quiet the haters. He is sitting at 90-92 at the start of spring. Cheering for him

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  27. I don’t mind overpays. But Alex Bregman is NOT a $40M a year guy. Not for 3 years, nor 2 or even 1. Glad he’s up in Boston. Let that Yankee-Red Sox rivalry get brewing again. I’m so sick of everything being about the Dodgers.

    If Walker is looking decent, all throughout the Spring, why not go through April with a 6-man rotation. This is now 3 years in a row of our staff pitching a lot of innings with a shortened off-season. I don’t see any downside to giving the guy a few turns through the rotation (if a deal can’t come together by the end of spring).

    It took me a few years, but I think I’m ready for someone else to lead off. That might be part of the shake up we need. I love Schwarber putting us up 1-0, but I’m ready to try something else. And I hope Thomson isn’t afraid to stack the lefties when it comes to Harper and Schwarber.

    Ok, just a few random thoughts for now.

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  28. Bregman’s contract has deferrals and the impact is an AAV of 31.9, not 40. Still too much for what is likely to a declining player, but Boston needed him.

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    1. If he produces at above a 4WAR player like he has been in his last few years….he probably will opt out after this season, at 32- years old, and test the market again. IMO, he will have to settle then for an AAV in the mid-to-high $20M range and he will not get his 6/7/8 year contract length. I can see 5 years max. But if he does not opt at all…..he enters the free agent market in his age 34 season…probably then becomes a one or two year mercenary for whatever team is interested. Boras worked this contract and will be interesting to see how he handles the future with Bregman.

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      1. Look, anything is possible, and good for him to be able to negotiate this truly ridiculous deal that is made even more ridiculous by an opt-out. I think the odds that he opts out are very low because this contract is truly stupid money and far above his inherent projected value. He is still a good player, but he is a declining player going into his steep declining years.

        One other thing. There are many reasons the Eagles are so good. But one of the biggest reasons is that they have very few bad contracts and have the courage to cut ties with a player before you are paying that player way more than he is worth. You don’t double down on a good contract by extending the player on a bad contract (which is why Reddick was traded). So, for Realmuto, this year should pretty much be it – he’s just about at the end of his rope as an above average player. Yeah, maybe a much lower dollar one year deal or a year with a second buyout year, but that’s about it. And you DON’T sign him to play another position – that’s just silly. He’s valuable as a catcher. His offense alone is barely average.

        But, sadly, the Phillies don’t always think like this. And that’s why they’re the Phillies and the Eagles are the Eagles. When I look at a situation I think WWHD (What Would Howie Do?) and if you look at it like that, you typically get the correct answer. Yeah, it’s a different sport, I get it. But so many principles are applicable across sports. Just saying.

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        1. MLB wishes they could structure their contracts in line with the NFL…but not going to happen with the MLBPA dictating what they want. Trying to compare MLB contract negotiations and outcomes with NFL contract situations is tough.

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          1. Of course it’s different!!!! If your point is that it’s different, I agree and already admitted as much.

            However, it’s different in a way that makes it EVEN MORE IMPORTANT that you don’t enter into long term deals in MLB that cannot be voided and where you have to eat a lot of money paying a player who no longer is worth the money you are paying and whose pay is guranteed. This is why the last 5 years of the Turner contract are insane. That contract threatens to become the Phillies’ version of the Albert Pujols contract or Miguel Cabrera contract (which DD also negotiated).

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  30. Realmuto played last year with a knee he injured in May. If he bounces back healthy, we may all have a different take on his situation.

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    1. They need to get through this year and see where they are and they need to limit his games behind the plate. But they need to be really careful with him moving forward even if they do proceed. As a pretty fast rule, catchers’ performances – even those of athletic catchers – fall off a cliff at around age 33 or 34 – a very, very steep cliff.

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    1. I am fine with him starting in the field or at DH occasionally against a lefty pitcher – DH, 1B or LF would be fine. He probably shouldn’t start more than about 110 games behind the plate.

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      1. I agree with you. And i was really hoping that this winter, we would’ve targeted a young, back up catcher who could possibly learn from JT and then take over in 2026 and beyond, or at least be a bridge to whomever is next. I fear an overpay for JT’s services the next couple of years is what’s going to have to happen.

        But there’s a lot of time before that happens, so who knows.

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        1. You don’t know. That’s the bottom line. But if Marchan is healthy (always a big “if”) he is more than capable of holding that position down for a few years. Again WWHD (What Would Howie Do?)? Almost certainly, if the team thought Marchan’s health was good, he would be the back-up this year and, if that went well, would be the starter next year. He is an elite defensive catcher and his offense is a lot better than you might think. On the whole, he would be very good and very cost effective. I think this is the position where you could save a lot of money to be used for other needs. Think about the Eagles replacing Javon Hargrave after SB 57 – that’s the analogy.

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  32. The success or lack thereof of this upcoming season to me is about 3 areas of improvement:

    1. The existing lineup needs to fundamentally buy in to changing their approach at the plate and work counts, put the ball in play, and improve situational hitting performance.
    2. The Phils need some contributions from 1-2 young players from the minors in the second half of the year – Painter, Crawford, Abel, Miller, and others.
    3. And finally, for as great as DD has been here and for the last 25-30 years, his deadline performance has been poor, and pretty bad last year. He needs a 2008 Gillick level performance and we haven’t seen that yet.

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    1. 2008 Pat Gillick performance netted us Pedro Feliz before the season, and Joe Blanton and Scott Eyre at the deadline. These are moves that are feeling very much like the types Dave Dombrowski has done. And for every Jayson Werth find, there was an Adam Eaton signing.

      It’s a crap shoot and sometimes you need the right mix for it to all come together.

      Liked by 1 person

    2. I will tell you that, as a general rule, by the time a player is established it’s extremely hard for that player to fundamentally change his approach at the plate and substantially improve his plate discipline. It sounds straightforward and easily accomplished, but it really is not. And I think there’s a reason for that – hitting a 90-100 MPH pitch with great movement is extraordinarily hard and so much of laying off a pitch has to do with reaction time – there’s virtually no time to think. We should be realistic about this. Casty is going to be Casty, Turner is going to be Turner and they won’t be drawing the bulk of the walks (Harper and Schwarber still will) – they are not suddenly going to develop some newfound ability to lay off pitches – but a little improvement from a lot of players could make a difference I suppose.

      That said, now that the offseason is over, I think between Painter, Luzardo and Romano, the team is set up incredibly well on the mound, especially the rotation Still, it would be great to have some big surprise in the line-up – be it from the minors or otherwise.

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    3. I will tell you that, as a general rule, by the time a player is established it’s extremely hard for that player to fundamentally change his approach at the plate and substantially improve his plate discipline. It sounds straightforward and easily accomplished, but it really is not. And I think there’s a reason for that – hitting a 90-100 MPH pitch with great movement is extraordinarily hard and so much of laying off a pitch has to do with reaction time – there’s virtually no time to think. We should be realistic about this. Casty is going to be Casty, Turner is going to be Turner and they won’t be drawing the bulk of the walks (Harper and Schwarber still will) – they are not suddenly going to develop some newfound ability to lay off pitches – but a little improvement from a lot of players could make a difference I suppose.

      That said, now that the offseason is over, I think between Painter, Luzardo and Romano, the team is set up incredibly well on the mound, especially the rotation Still, it would be great to have some big surprise in the line-up – be it from the minors or otherwise.

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      1. Turner’s plate discipline has regressed since his first 6 seasons in baseball with the Nats…then it hovered close to 8%. After he went to the Dodgers it began on the decline, until what it is now. Perhaps if Top decided to lead him off once again. it would go back to his Nats days. Since OBP may be one of his main objectives at that spot in the line-up

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      2. If what you say is true and I am in no way disagreeing with your position ……. if you can’t change the zebra’s “stripes” and you have too many zebra’s ….. then, trade some zebra’s for quarter horses.

        Problem is …….. when you paid too much for one of the zebra’s and that particular zebra isn’t particularly good at roping or cutting, but down in the corral you have a quarter horse who may be chomping at the bit! What the “heck” do you do with the Zebra?

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        1. Well, you raise a good point. This is one of my problems with DD. He doesn’t just sometimes make questionable moves, he often doubles down in a big way – giving too much money and too many years. Casty’s 5 year contract is a gigantic exercise in dealing with the Zebra – he’s paying a very average player too much money over too many years. Turner’s contract is also not very good, although Turner is definitely a good player – it’s just that the contract is far too long.

          I like the Dodgers’ model much better. The Dodgers will pay GREAT players ridiculous amounts of money and give them a lot of years. But great players are deserving of these contracts. For good players, they are very disciplined. Teoscar Hernandez gets a three year contract. Max Muncy gets a two year contract with a team option. Trust me, they wouldn’t sign a guy like Casty to a 5-year contract. No freaking way.

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        2. Seems you are an old cowboy at heart. Just take the stripes off the zebra and make him your quarter horse after all. Zebras are expensive these days. Everything is expensive.

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  33. i agree to an extent on not being able to change their approach but you can at least target/head hunt pitches certain at bats/moments way better and plan your approach better…. especially when it matters most… what got them there in 2022 is what they’ve lacked since… nuannce and playing in the moment not trying to make the moment.. i read some blurb from Casty about how now nobody expects anything of them again and that is a nice place to be.. hopefully there is truth to that but come october the heat is on and expecations will be there again for sure…

    Want to change a hitters approach to avoid low and away… get a piece of plywood a big one.. put the wood on the outer edge of the the plate vertically align the board… have pitchers pitch just like normal.. who cares if it hits the wood…. have the batter hit… go ahead.. try to swing low and away.. break your damn hands if you want.. you’ll change your approach… now that is hyperbole and extreme but you can train your muscles to do amazing things with the right training.. cough cough hitting coach cough cough.. though i did like hearing him say he is willing to piss people off and make them uncomfortable this year.. hope so

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    1. You need to get in touch with Kevin Long and pass this message along.

      Seriously, don’t blame the hitting coach. He’s actually a pretty good one. First of all, it’s not that easy and I’m sure these guys have a ton of drills that they do with willing players. Second, you as the hitting coach getting paid a couple of hundred thousand dollars – if you try to lay down the law with these wealthy multi-millionaire athletes you’ll either get ignored or fired. The coach is only as good as his audience.

      Like I said, if you get a lot of small improvements in plate discipline across the whole team that could have a significant cumulative effect, but asking for much more than that is just not realistic. It won’t happen here because it doesn’t happen anywhere.

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      1. true… guess won’t see the fine folks at driveline using my approach anytime soon

        maybe stand in the big metal dog bath bucket.. my pops used to love that one… tie the feet together to limit overstride…. all sorts of tricks but if the old dogs don’t want to learn, ole dave gonna have to take yeller out back soon enough

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    2. steved….Casty may say that about how nobody expects anything of them again….but right now they are tied with the Mets at 4th behind the Dodgers, Yankees and Braves respectively, to win the WS. And out at Vegas their over/under win total is now 91.5, tied with the Yankees also at 91.5….Brave are at 93.5 and Mets are at 90.5……Dodgers at a whopping 103.5.

      So Casty may think no one expects anything from them. but the people in Vegas think otherwise.

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      1. Yeah i think he meant the people of the general region ie philly fans… odds makers in vegas don’t sit behind you booing at you and telling you you suck or whatever other heckles may come your way

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      2. The Phillies are still a good team but making the playoffs and winning the WS are obviously 2 separate things that we know about.

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      3. I’ve actually grown to like Casty the person. I think all things considered he’s probably a decent dude. And I’ve also come to respect that he tries to get himself into a mind set that works best for him to produce. I think that’s all he’s try to do – relax and see the ball and hit the ball. That’s how he excels. I think he tried doing other things and it just didn’t work.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. same, any man who will represent himself is A OK in my book, granted he knows Dombo from Detriot so level of comfort certainly a factor in paying % for representation but Casty is a heady cat.. any fella swallowing down ayuhusca is warrior i want in my clan.. got his blue belt recently too.. staying flexible and limber like that is good for the joints/tendons…. Rock on Casty, always love to hear what he has to say, nobody in that room will give it to you any straighter

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    3. This is the problem that big market teams have: players with large contracts who are underperforming. You can try to get them to change, and they will IF they get desperate enough. But another thing is that most of these players are now 1 year older. You now have players who are more prone to injury and who are slowing down. Not great when you’re playing 162 games and trying to hit a 98 fastball at the top of the zone or a 94 slider down and away.

      There’s now talk about Realmuto wanting an extension and playing LF! Seriously?

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      1. or harp and his lil contract jabs here and there still… dude, you did what you did.. you can’t expect John to feel like he should pay you/elongate your contract to be what an ambassador basicaly or a player coach? Get back to us when you have a ring… none of that stuff was extended to Chase, Jimmy, Cole… none of those guys got the kind of “star” treatment harp has gotten/does get with picking some guys and guiding direction for a few years there

        “If that gets done this year or any other year, we want to get that done.”

        who is “We”? Boras and Harper Co.? i certainly don’t want them paying more for the years of a guys 38-41 years or whatever it is he’s trying to accomplish without some hardware on that hand

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  34. Phillies-A Fan’s View Steve Potter has plaudits and compliments on how Mick Abel looked today at the complex. If he should turn it around then that will be a big plus for the organization. Also talked about RH relief pitcher Andrew Baker….another arm that could progress to CBP sometime this year…assume he will start at Reading then work his way up the ladder. Baler always had hi K/9 rates…maybe now he will have the control to go along with that.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Both guys have good arms but have stalled big time in the last few years. Hitters are somewhat predictable, but with pitchers, you never know when (or if) the light will go on and they will suddenly surge forward. It could be now, 2 years from now, 4 years from now . . . or never.

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  35. Let’s get ready for baseball!

    Castellanos seems to be very relaxed which is a good thing.

    The Phillies won 95 games and won the NL East, not sure how much better than they can be with an aging team. So hoping that those players who had 3+ WAR will at least holds serve, where’s the improvement going to be?

    As always, I will focus on the starters and not the backups because the backups won’t play enough to matter. Edmundo Sosa did get 2.3 WAR when Trea got hurt but I don’t think the Phillies should be banking on that every year.

    No doubt we need Castellanos to be better but he hasn’t posted 3+ WAR since age 29 when he had a career high OPS of .939 for the Reds. I guess the hope is that soon to be 33 year old Castellanos nets the Phillies 2 WAR and even that seems like a long shot.

    The biggest improvement should hopefully come from Kepler getting playing time over Rojas. Rojas has a career OPS of .653 and even though he’s only 24, the Phillies can’t afford to wait for him to blossom. Kepler says he’s now healthy so we’ll see what happens. He’s decent defensively so maybe he can surprise and get to close to 3 WAR.

    On the pitching side, it’s all about the health of Luzardo. If he’s healthy, he’s nasty. The Phillies easily have a top 3 rotation with Luzardo. And that’s not even talking Andrew Painter. If Luzardo can get 3 WAR which sounds totally doable, the Phillies should be very good here.

    Relievers are notoriously volatile but it’s not hard to see that the Phillies might be due for a letdown here. Phillies lost Hoffman who had a crazy year and can we bank on another great year from Strahm? There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Romano (to stay healthy) and Kerkering (to take another step forward to being elite).

    Let’s see what happens!

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      1. Castellanos will likely not give more than 2 WAR, since his defense will bring his value down. Kepler is the unknown but he hasn’t posted 3+ WAR since he was 26 (he’s now 32). So I’ll be generous and give him 2.5 WAR. Marsh had 3.1 WAR but we know that he’s talented enough to be better. He could easily be a 5 WAR player, but I’ll be generous again and give him 4 WAR.

        So I’m projecting around 8-9 WAR for our starting OF. Will this be enough? It will have to be since Justin Crawford won’t be making his debut until summer 2025 at the earliest.

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  37. I’m not seeing how the Braves are going to be better than last year. The Mets yes probably a lot better with Soto in that LU but only if their starting pitching holds which is a bet I would make that it doesn’t. Montas is already down 6-8 weeks with a Lat strain.

    So really you have a very jumbled or tight NL East race this year between the 3 teams.

    Our SP was pretty darn good last year and so was the BP. The LU cost us in the end.

    So without drastic improvements to the LU I don’t see a different result. On paper I don’t see the BP as being better. Is Romano better than Hoffman if healthy? probably but not substantially.

    DD and/or Middleton are just clutching pearls at this point. They like their club and the Vibe at the Bank and with constant sellouts why make a bunch of changes.

    I get it especially when faced with the payroll constraints. They can cross that bridge next year assuming they have the discipline not to extend contracts to certain guys beyond a year at very favorable AAVs to the club.

    Frustration should never weigh more than expectation.

    Like

    1. I’m not sure why you don’t see the Braves being better than last year. Imagine if a team added a former MVP in his prime (Acuna) and a former Cy Young candidate in his prime (Strider), have the current Cy Young winner on its staff, and have a first baseman who was an MVP candidate primed for a comeback year. That’s the Braves. I expect them to be excellent this year. I still think the Phillies make the playoffs, but they have a really tough road ahead of them.

      Like

      1. Braves pitching shoule be a concern. Sale will have a regression-to-mean season. His 177 IP in ’24 was the most since 2018.

        Strider coming off another injury. Schwellenbach and Lopez? Good 3-4 guys, not 1-2 guys.

        Braves offense will be potent. But I see a ‘group’ of stars, and not a ‘team’ of stars,

        Buy the UNDER in Braves wins

        Like

        1. The over/under is around 93 – that sounds about right.

          And I agree you have to plan for some regression with Sale. But I think they will be very good and very dangerous. They also added Profar, which was a nice little FA move on their part – he helps fill out that line-up.

          Like

          1. I can also buy into JT and Stott being much better offensively this year.

            So kind of a wash in the NL East.

            Soto will be an interesting case study in how one very dynamic hitter can effect an entire line-up.

            Like

            1. Really need to buckle down and win series that they should handily win.. whenever the duldrums come with this group ove the years seems to be them downplaying to competition

              Like

      2. Agree with dmar that I don’t see the Braves as being better in 2025 than last season. They should be an 85/90 win team.

        Acuna’s return will certainly be a boost. Strider is back but coming of TJ, his innings will be limited. Is Sale going to have another completely healthy season? History says probably not. Olson had a career year in 2023, his 2024 season was much more in-line with his typical season.

        On the negative side, Osuna isn’t going to have another career year, and they lost 2/5ths of their rotation in Fried/Morton.

        Their wildcard is how well Profar plays in 2025. If he has a repeat of his 2024 season, they will be improved, if he returns to career norms, then they are slightly weaker.

        Like

      3. I’m not sure Sale holds up again, Strider coming off TJ, Acuna coming off another severe knee injury Fried gone would be my reasons al beit I grant you they could also be reasons for them to be better in the W column.

        We’ll see what happens

        Like

        1. Second TJs are almost the kiss of death for pitchers…..few have come back stronger than prior….however in Strider’s case he and the Braves are hopeful in that this second time was more of the ‘internal brace’ procedure. …it was only necessary because his UCL became compromised by the unavoidable development of a bone fragment. Because the ligament didn’t have a significant tear, his doctor did the internal brace procedure…..so they are hoping a faster healing and recovery and an earlier return to the mound. Now will he still get it up to 98/99 and still able to have that plus-plus slider….will shall see this season.

          Like

          1. Romus. That is interesting. I am aware of at least a handful of kids here in Indiana who have had TJ as 14-15 years old. Wonder if that will have an effect on long term success or failure. I mentioned one who played with my grandson at one time is now pitching both right and left-handed. I have not seen him left-handed but have been told he is not bad. A right-handed kid who bats left-handed so he may have been ambidextrous to begin.

            Like

    2. At the end not scoring many runs and then letting the Mets score many did them in. Lots of the same players so we will just have to see how the season plays out. But I am ready for some baseball. Been a long cold winter here in Indiana.

      Like

    1. Don……if Miller does what is expected at reading this season….he will be up there in the low teens by the end….also can see about a dozen in front of him now making their debut or playing themselves out of the prospect category in 2025 with their respective MLB teams.

      Like

      1. Hi Romus. I just saw list and knew you guys know so much more about prospects. Saw my Indiana kid is 11 on list. I am sure you are right on some moving up and off this list.

        Like

  39. Hi everyone,

    I have a question that is going to come out of left field, but I think it is appropriate for this forum as it relates to the draft scouting report that I recall for one of our current MLB pitchers, Aaron Nola. I swear that I recall reading that Aaron Nola is double jointed or something to that effect. Is that true or do any of you recall reading the same? I’ve searched online but cannot find old articles about that. I am asking because a friend of mine has an 18 year old son who is double jointed, 6’4″ tall, 190lbs, 18 years old, and is now throwing 87mph. He’s never had a major injury and is still thin with plenty of weight to add onto his frame. He has been offered by around a dozen Division II schools and many division threes. His pitching mechanics, arm slot etc. look very similar to Nola’s.

    Like

    1. Rafe. I am no expert, but I have never seen Aaron do somehing like that. I have known a few people who are. Maybe the kid can be AN2. My grandson is going to go to a D3 school in Ohio near Cincy.

      Like

      1. Looked at one of Nola’s scouting reports from LSU 11 years ago prior to the draft…and found it interesting on KLaw eval:

         Each of (his) offerings are commanded impeccably, which – according to many reports – is quite possibly Nola’s best asset as a pitcher. On the 20-80 scale, most have him rated at a 65 to a 70. Keith Law disagrees, however, projecting Nola’s future command as an above-average 55. He also believes it’s the curve that has the potential to be Nola’s second-best pitch, while the change could be nothing more than average…. most scouting reports seem to insist that Nola is a magician with his command, and that it’s what will allow him to reach his potential. But other reports, such as Law’s, believe the command won’t mature and that, ultimately, it will expose his mediocre stuff.

        Liked by 1 person

  40. Thanks for the responses! Great find Romus. KLaw was both correct “the curve” and hugely incorrect “command”.

    Like

    1. The internet is forever! it can make you look a whole lotta ways too. An 11 year glass window … kinda of funny. Thanks for posting

      Like

  41. Many are high on Tait as the future catcher, and that is justly so……but that kid from the Ven….Alirio Ferrebus…seems to be turning some heads. Good size and seems to be able to deftly handle the bat…good contact ability. I like to see how his defense is rated behind the plate.

    Like

  42. Crystal ball time. The SR is crazy good. The Bullpen is better than most, and has a few opportunities to improve before the playoffs with promotions & trades.

    The LU, is the asterisk in competing for that WS. ATL, NYM, LAD, NYY are all easily better, likely BAL. CHI, PIT,MIL and AZ are in the mix for being on par or slightly better than the Phils. Phils had a top 4 run differential in all the MLB last year, but if we broke that down by month, i think it would be less of a boast

    Feels like this year is on the players, if they end up going all the way. I’d expect it to be a lot closer to the 22’run vs the 24’ run, as in limping into the playoffs vs waiting for the playoffs.

    This team looks significantly different next year imo. They feel to be missing a big bat…. IMO, it will be Tucker. Turner is moved to the OF, Realmuto & Schwarber are both extended, and Crawford & Miller are promoted. Daycare part 2 – that lineup, improved defense, and SR can beat the Dodgers & Yankees.

    Like

    1. by extending Realmuto & Schwarber – I meant at reasonable short terms deals, 2-3 years for Realmuto.

      Stott, Turner, Harper, Tucker, Schwarber, Bohm, Miller, Crawford, Realmuto after trades. I would think Castellanos is tradeable with 1 year left and a decent year this year.

      Like

      1. Kyle Tucker has averaged over 5 WAR his last 4 seasons, he’s going to get something like 10/300 if he gets 5 WAR again with the Cubs.

        According to Spotrac, the Phillies already have the 3rd highest team payroll. They didn’t make any large FA signings during the offseason presumably to stay away from more luxury taxes. I don’t think the Phillies can afford to sign Tucker AND Schwarber AND Realmuto.

        After the 2025 season, this is what the Phillies will still have left in terms of large contracts:

        Wheeler 2/84

        Turner 8/218

        Harper 6/153

        Nola 5/123

        Note that all 4 players above will be at LEAST age 32 entering the 2026 season. The Phillies need to get younger.

        Liked by 2 people

        1. I hear ya. My math maybe incorrect, but I’d bet that “tucker” is the right player Middleton has talked about. The 2027 FA class doesnt look like they have that impact bat, but it’s ultra heavy on pitching. Without going into specifics, I got the Phillies payroll at $245mil, with Tucker at 30mil a year. This is basically the tax threshold, So 33.5 under where they are at now, with a Walker’s 18mil coming off the following year. Again, I could be wrong, but I believe it’s a highly likely scenario. Unless they see younger cheaper talent to replace a player like Kyle Tucker. What’s interesting is that the teams that don’t;t have pitching now, have a hellva opportunity in 2027 to catch up.

          Like

        2. I grant it would be really heartbreaking to watch JT and Kyle go. I can wax poetically for weeks about what great guys they are and players too but Tucker does so much more for the LU.

          Its extremely difficult to win Championships hanging onto guys too long.

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          1. It’s probably better to move on from JT after this year (his shelf life as a catcher is drawing close to an ened), but we will see. In order to do that, Marchan needs to show he can step in or there needs to be another decent catcher on the market who can be a transition to the next generation of young Phillies catchers. Believe me, they are coming and this time, I don’t think it’s a mirage, but it will be a few years. Let’s be real, however. Marchan needs to be the back-up and needs to start at least 35-45 games, for a whole variety of reasons.

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            1. By the way, I don’t see Schwarber going anywhere. I see something like a 3 year extension in the vicinity of like $22-24 M AAV. The guy is a hell of a hitter and very dedicated. He improved his BA 50 points last year as a 31-year old. That takes a lot of discipline and work and he’s in better shape than ever. And I think he loves being on this team. It’s a good fit and he’s still very productive.

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            2. Agree and I get it, offensively capable catchers are few and far between but there are always catchers that are solid game callers and pretty darn good defensively available for cheap.

              It’s usually easier to pick up the OPS you need at another position.

              And yes Marchan is the perfect guy if he can stay healthy but even if he can’t I wouldn’t sink the money it might take to keep JT around.

              Like

  43. For years I thought the technology existed to allow umps to wear a wrist band of some type to alert them if a pitch was a strike, maybe it is maybe it isn’t

    But I will take what they are going to further test in ST which is the 2 Challenge system where only the Pitcher Catcher or Hitter can challenge a call.

    What was interesting about it is that all the data they compiled on the system the past few years in independent and minor ball is that only 51% of challenges went in the challenger’s favor.

    I wish they could extrapolate that further to breakout the Pitchers rate vs that of the catchers and hitters rates of success.

    Like

    1. Thru out baseball history , one constant, was the continuing controversy of the calling of balls and strikes. Virtually every player and fan is unhappy with a call at some point in their lifetime. I guess that is human nature. It seems, you would think, technology could solve that problem. baseball needs greater minds working the problem……get Elon on it!

      Like

      1. Don’t bother Elon, he’s busy firing park rangers and downloading all of our social security information.

        Like

      2. I think it was easier to accept a certain amount of human element until the on screen tech became so prevalent.

        And if you consider using challenges only in high leverage situations it adds a pretty cool strategy factor to the game.

        No more right down the middle for a ball Harry…

        Like

      1. Me too! We must see them exactly the same! One time, I thought I got one wrong, but it turned out to be the replay official ……. it was all over the national newa the next day, he hadn’t read the fine print in 32.x.d.

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  44. Not sure how real it is but saw some reports that they were also thinking of Turner at the leadoff spot. I highly doubt that works. He is too much of a free swinger.

    BH is ideal there but again the bottom of our LU is too weak if you subscribe to the logic that the LO hitter only bats LO once per game.

    Kyle just came up too many times without men on base (or so it seemed)

    Maybe my issue with Schwarber batting LO was that because he walked at an amazing clip.

    Matchups are a big deal and avoiding lefties in the 9 hole especially weak OBP ones is essential especially late in games.

    And Kyle I love you but you are even worse at 1B than you are in LF LOL. Not sure what coming out and saying he might play some 1B was about.

    Like

    1. DMAR….Turner himself talked about it……that is where the bulk of his PAs have been thru-out his career. In the first inning his OBP is .341, and batting first it is .351. So apparently he knows what his responsibilities are when he is positioned in the lineup at that spot. Though I see your point, since Turner’s BB rate at that spot is only 6-to-7%, so he does free swing.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Hey if he wants to do it and commits to doing it the right way I’m all for it…

        I thought I saw a quote once that he said where he prefers NOT to bat LO.

        These guys sometimes say one thing to the cameras but another behind closed doors. So if that was the case why didn’t we stick with that once we signed him…

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  45. I think I would commit to the following for the first 6-8 weeks

    Bohm 780 (I think Alec is capable of more BBs with Harper Behind him and might even see better pitches)

    Harper 898

    Turner 807

    Schwarber 851

    JT 751

    Stott 671 (I think he’s much better than a 671 OPS)

    Castellanos 742

    Marsh 747

    Kepler 749/Wilson 836 (I’d commit to a full on platoon in LF) I might not even mind Schwarber LO with these two in the 9 hole. In which case Bohm 4, Turner 2 and leave BH at 3)

    Like

  46. Since Turner is set to lead off, I think it may make some sense to recreate the Utley/Howard magic with Harper/Schwarber. At some point they’re going to need to double up lefties, I think I want those guys to be back to back until it becomes a problem

    Turner

    Harper

    Schwarber

    Castellanos

    Marsh

    Bohm

    Stott

    Realmunto

    Kepler

    Schwarber will provide the best protection for Bryce in the line up. If Turner’s on 2nd and you walk Harper you’re setting yourself up for a 3 run bomb.

    It also makes some sense to separate Turner & Harper because Trea won’t run. However the line-up construction gets a little messier:

    Turner

    Bohm

    Harper

    Schwarber

    Castellanos

    Marsh

    Realmunto

    Stott

    Kepler

    However if you’re in a late game lefty situation you’re probably comfortable hitting for Stott or Kepler against a LHP with solid RH alternatives so may not be as big of a deal. I like this line up because Bohm is a high contact guy so you could have some hit and runs with Turner and since Bohm is a high DP candidate it may force Trea to steal.

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  47. I kind of agree with a lineup like this from one local beat guy:

    Trea Turner, SS

    Bryce Harper, 1B*

    Alec Bohm, 3B

    Kyle Schwarber, DH*

    J.T. Realmuto, C

    Bryson Stott, 2B*

    Nick Castellanos, RF

    Brandon Marsh, CF*

    Max Kepler, LF*…….(Rojas vs LHP-Kepler to 8th, Marsh sits)

    Like

    3. I don’t think Bohm offers BH enough protection but I guess we’ll see. Good for Bohm if he can develop a deeper understanding of how teams approach him. If Harper is going to take his BBs it means Bohm needs to hone in on very specific pitches he can do damage on because he is going to get them with the right amount of patience.

      And maybe ST shows us a different Rojas but honestly I want to see very little of him in the everyday LU even as a platoon. Late game defense absolutely.

      Like

      1. Bohm is probably on the hot seat this season. It will be great all around if he really explodes. He is a free agent after 2026 so if he does well …….4WAR or better…..could be a valuable trade chip in the off-season.

        Like

        1. While it’s possible that guys like Bohm and Marsh take big steps forward, more likely, they are who they are – which is good, solid players. That doesn’t make them a disappointment.

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          1. Bohm is so big, and has such bat to ball skills i don’t see how with some work to shape his approach/swing path he doesn’t put more balls in the air during July/Aug specificall at home when the air is hot… we all know darn well that thick air and lil shots down the lines GOOOOOooooooOOooooo that balllls outtttta hhhhhheeeeeerrrrrreeeeee you know it, time to bump up your HR numbers BohmOOOOO need some Pat B like numbers from ya… i’ll also take the fly out over him doinking into so many dang DP’s like he was doing the end of 24

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            1. Being a home run hitter really isn’t his game. I’d be happy if he drew a more walks, hit with a slightly higher average and upped his power game a little. If he can improve across the board like that, with his fielding improvements, he could extremely good – maybe a 4-5 WAR player, which is his probably his ceiling.

              Like

        2. I don’t see the reasoning for hoping Bohm develops well enough to be traded. He is reasonably priced, makes good contact. He has some position flexibility. He’s the Phils’ highest drafted pick in the entire system — a testament to somebody’s scouting.

          The Phils should be thrilled if just about any of their prospects turn out as well as Bohm. Can he fit on a diamond with Aidan Miller? Who knows but it’s not an issue for this year and, by next year, Miller could look to be slotted inat SS with Turner moving to LF. No current roster talent is blocking such a move.

          Like

          1. Yeah, I would be completely flexible with Bohm. He’s a good and very useful player and is under team control for a couple more years. But he’s probably not the guy you give a big FA contract. So if someone else can replace him and he has value on the trade market, perhaps his highest and best use is in a trade to help the team get younger. I’m not saying I agree, but I get the thought process.

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  49. Well the Phillies offense is in trouble.

    Walker struck out 5 in a row today …

    🙂

    JK, word on the street is that he is looking a lot a better this year. Hope it keeps up, Last year was tough for anyone to watch, let alone be Walker himself. Hope he figured something out. Selfishly , to raise his trade value.

    Like

    1. Velo is up compared to last Sept-which is not too hard to do since he was hovering around 89/91 ……but many pitchers will be having good velo readings in the earlier going -April/May- will have to see how or if specific pitchers can maintain it s the season progresses.

      Like

      1. Will see. From what I read, and not 100% that it wasnt Phillies spin, but the pitchers are not to focus on anything but control early on. The velo will come. if this is the case, maybe Walker focused on velo in the offseason (who could blame him), so hes a little a head… if he can built to 95+ mph on his FB, really 96-97 … he could be a hellva surprise this year in the pen. Its spring optimism, but I’ll give it a 30% of happening as of now…

        Liked by 1 person

        1. My bet is he’ll be a Cy Young finalist ….. I think we should hold on to him at all costs ($36MM💰).😊

          Like

          1. Save the thread. Oldruff is putting his money where his mouth is. Walker for the 2025 NL CY award!

            what a world that would be…

            Like

  50. Bohm did rate favorably overall vs many of the other NL third basemen:

    Alec Bohm -3WAR…..

    Machado -3.1WAR…..

    Riley-2.9WAR(missed time)…..

    Chapman-7.1WAR…..

    Arenado-2.4WAR…..

    Muncy-3WAR…..

    Suárez-3.1WAR.

    Like

      1. Odd… im not say he’s not a good player… but… this is saying he’s just as good as Machado? I’m not buying that.

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        1. I don’t think it’s really saying that. It’s saying he generated more WAR last year in a low season for Machado and a high season for Bohm. It’s a generated metric, not a subjective appraisal. He’s obviously not expected to be as good as Manny Machado.

          Like

    2. Muncy played 73 games, Arenado is deep into his decline phase, Machado may be getting there too. Bohm just had the best year of his career by far and just about equaled those guys.

      Like

    1. Does look like they want to build him up…who knows if other teams experience spring training pitching injuries they may come calling for the 33-year old. Did read where TWalker threw this off-season with a weighted ball to increase strength and up his velo. But he is approaching 1700 innings pitched in professional baseball….some arms just do not last that long with the same velo as a pitcher in their 20s.

      Like

      1. He deserves some credit, character wise. He easily could’ve showed up to ST in “Ben Simmons effort mode” or Anthony Rendon attitude. He’s not a fat mess, which a lot of players can’t say (Devers BOS)

        Let’s hope he can appease the baseball gods and have a good year again. Not expecting it though

        Like

  52. Baseball America released a 45 minute podcast on the Phillies prospects. They do a deep-dive into Painter (comments include something to the effect of “if this guy stays healthy, I think he is a hall of famer”, and “he is the best pitcher I’ve seen in my 12 years at Baseball America, and maybe the 3rd best prospect I’ve covered in my career behind G. Cole and j. Fernandez”).

    They then shift to A. Miller, J. Crawford, and a few others. It’s a good podcast – and free to listen to.. Give it a listen if time allows.

    Liked by 1 person

      2. I finally listened to this. Good stuff. Thanks for posting it Romus.

        Saltiban is also my sleeper. 17 homers, 22 stolen bases and at 12% walk rate as a 19yo in the FSL is really impressive. he also had only an 11.5% swinging strike rate.

        That said, his second half numbers are even more impressive. His second half line was .268/.396/.503/.899. That is a wow line for anyone let alone a 19 year old. He had 109 homeruns on 153 ABs in the second half. A homer rate of 1/15 ABs is phenomenal for any age, but again as a 19yo that is outstanding.

        Not sure if he is a 2B or an OF in the future, but that is a very very impressive first full season in the minor leagues. I have him as the 6th best prospect. My top 6 prospects are:

        1. Painter
        2. Miller
        3. Crawford
        4. Chace
        5. Tait
        6. Saltiban

        Like

        1. Nice stat breakdown. Saltiban is very intriguing. I’m interested in seeing how he does this year. And your ranking is certainly credible. After our first 4 or 5 prospects, a lot of guys are interchangeable or somewhat unknown. Not at all strange for Saltiban to be ranked where you have placed him.

          Liked by 1 person

        2. Assume Saltiban will start at Jersey Shore this season. If he really takes off there and also hits with the same ISO, which will be more difficult at ShoreTown Park in Lakewood, he may get to Reading late in the second half of the season to get a taste and a brief acclimation to AA pitching and the city.

          And if that should happen….he then becomes a much valuable trade chip nugget in Dombrowski’s war chest. I would hope he is not moved, but if he is used in a trade package, I hope it is a player that will give the team a little more than a Mike Lorenzen and also for a few seasons more.

          Like

          1. If Saltiban starts bombing HRs as a 20 year old, he’s going to be ranked in the top 100 sooner rather than later. The Phillies have been using him primarily as a 2B. As much as we all like Bryson Stott, he’s 27 (with 2 more years of control after this season) and coming off a down year. And his agent is Scott Boras. There’s no guarantee that Stott will get a second contract with the Phillies.

            Saltiban will most likely spend his age 20 season in the minors. If all goes well, he could make his debut in late 2026. But likely he’s in ST for 2027.

            The Phillies need to keep Saltiban if he develops.

            Like

            1. He and Aroon Escobar are both 20 and slotted at 2B…

              Saltiban may have the edge on power but I believe Escobar is the more refined hitter.

              Like

            2. @dmar, if Escobar can also hit, it’s a good problem to have. If Aidan Miller stays at SS, 3B COULD be a possibility for Saltiban or Escobar.

              Liked by 1 person

    2. Amazing to think that he believes Painter is better than Skenes. For my money, Skenes is the best young pitcher since Doc Gooden. Just unhitable.

      Like

      1. Yes…….that is puzzling…we all know Painter is one tremendous talent, but making comparison and projections…Hall of Fame ….IMO, is just a little premature. And there have been some tall RHPs that have come on strong and flamed out in the past ….Mark Prior, Kerry Woods just to name two alone from the Cubs org.

        Like

        1. Back then, Dusty Baker let Prior and Wood throw until their arms fell off. Especially Mark Prior when he went from 116 innings at age 21 to 211 innings the next season. Prior wasn’t the same after that.

          The Phillies protect their pitchers as much as anybody. They gradually built up Aaron Nola to over 200 innings at age 25. I would be surprised if Painter hit 120 innings total at age 22. Painter won’t be sniffing 200+ innings until age 24 at the earliest.

          Like

          1. Just never know what awaits a pitcher and his arm. Braves are another org that seems to burn them out…Soroka, Wright, Anderson, Touki T., Teheran, and now who knows about Strider once he comes back. Phillies seem to work their pitchers the correct way in their development

            Like

            1. In order to avoid paying FAs (and keeping their costs low), the Braves are one of the more aggressive teams when it comes to promoting pitchers, especially if you’re a 1st round pick.

              Spencer Strider was up after 94 innings. Hurston Waldrep was a 1st round pick of the Braves in 2023 out of Florida. After 122 innings in the minors, Waldrep made his debut last season.

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  53. Well if you ask me……that may not be the best way of keeping a stable of healthy arms on the team and in the majors. Understand Strider is making great progress and wants to pitch earlier than expected…..as a Phillies fan, that may be what one wants in the long run.

    Like

  54. I went to the game today in Clearwater. Not much to be excited about other than the opposite hit to left field by Crawford followed by the bomb to right back Rincones. There was a right handed relief pitcher named McMillon who was hitting 98-99 consistently. It seems he was signed as a filler for Lehigh, but maybe he is someone to watch closely this Spring. He was one of the few pitchers who did not give up any runs today.

    Like

  55. I recorded the game and watched McMillon pitch. I had no idea who he was. Without seeing the velocity, my attention was grabbed by the life I saw on the fastball. I then saw the velo at 98 – 99 and wondered who the heck was pitching. Anyhow, I think the Phillies grabbed him off waivers from the Marlins. He pitched well for them at the end of they year last year but hurt his elbow. He was only throwing 95 last year so if he sustains this, he has added 3 – 4 mph on his fastball. His slider looks good as well.

    -Rafe

    Like

    1. The Phillies do the smart thing with guys like this. They gamble (it’s not much of a gamble really, they are just stockpiling assets) on a whole bunch of big arms and if one turns out to be a gem, it was entirely worth it. This is how they got Jeff Hoffman. It’s one of the things the new regime does really well. Get a good arm in, coach him and and see what happens. Literally, there is no downside here, unless you’re one of those folks who frets about the team losing minor league games. I am not one of those folks needless to say.

      Like

      1. By the way, I listened to the entire BA podcast. With one exception, everything they said pretty much was something the group either already knew or expected. The exception was, of course Painter. I have literally never heard any prospect spoken about with such glowing praise. I’ve said for a while his ceiling is the HOF, but Norris went further than that – he so much as said that, absent, injury, he would be a HOFer. He didn’t mention Skenes, but, really, that’s not a huge deal. What he said was essentially that Painter is or will soon be fully elite in nearly every respect and he applauded the team for backloading his season so he is pitching when they need him the most. Aside from that all the discussion about Miller, Crawford and Tait was exactly what you would expect.

        Like

        1. And they also praised the Luzardo trade saying that to get a great arm like that for a great fielding but very young SS with a lot of question marks at the plate, was a very solid move. I agree!

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          1. The question mark I have about Luzardo is that the Nats drafted him and traded him to the A’s. The A’s love controllable pitching yet they traded him to Miami.

            Now we have him and I even agree getting him for Caba is excellent value on a purely talent and proximity POV.

            I saw him pitch against us in the that playoff game in 2023 and he was on point, Wheeler just happened to outlast him that night.

            He left Boras and went to MVP Sports so he could be a prime candidate for a value extension.

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            1. I think it’s pretty easily explainable. Luzardo was the bait in a mid-season trade by the A’s to acquire Starling Marte, who, at the time, was a top performer during a rare year when the A’s were in contention. This was less about the A’s dumping a pitcher and more about the Marlins being able to pry a top arm from the A’s at the perfect time. Then he went on to have a couple of really good years for the Marlins. This trade may not work out for the Phillies but it was an outstanding “buy low” opportunity for them on a 27 year-old pitcher and, as the BA podcast pointed out, this may have been an outstanding “sell high” opportunity with Caba (time will tell on that one, but I get it).

              I roast the Phillies alive when they screw something up or do something that doesn’t make too much sense. So I have to (and like to) praise them when they do something that appears to make a ton of sense, like this deal does. It’s the type of move value-savvy competitive teams make.

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      2. Gelb mentioned another player to watch who fits the profile in his article this morning. Noted that Guillo Zuñiga is a non-roster invitee who’s right-handed, big guy, throws hard, with control issues.

        Agree that they do a good job of bringing in hard throwers with control issues and attempt to find some control. Good risk/reward moves.

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  57. Heart broken for Weston. I’ve long been a fan of the guy simply because he came in a few Springs ago and showed very well, then he had a great AAA season with his storied MLB debut at 28.

    Who doesn’t like a good underdog story…

    Now I’d like to see Kemp in that role

    Feeling cheated that yesterday got rained out. Any chance I get to see Skenes pitch it is much watch TV. Today’s game not televised.

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  58. Sanchez primed for A HUGE year!

    The Rays’ spring training home isn’t equipped with StatCast, but the scoreboard radar gun clocked Sánchez’s fastball between 97 and 99 mph. Last season, Sánchez’s fastball averaged 94.5 mph. He said his velocity in bullpen sessions and live at-bats this spring has been sitting at 96-97 mph, a byproduct of the work he put in this offseason on strengthening his body.

    “I think that I’m mature enough now to throw hard and also locate in different points in the strike zone as well,” Sánchez said.

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    1. The trio of lefties….Sanchez, Ranger and Luzardo could give LHBs fits this season….hopefully especially Mets’ Juan Soto, who has hit them well over his career with an .857 OPS.

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