Phillies Discussion 1/16/2025

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Phillies Discussion.

It has been a couple weeks since the Phillies announced that they were probably done signing and trading this offseason.  And it has been a couple weeks since the Phillies followed that announcement with announcements that they had completed a trade for Jesus Luzardo and reached an agreement with free agent Joe Ross.  When DD says he’s likely done it doesn’t mean the offers won’t keep rolling in.

I have been to the Complex a couple times this week.  I’m happy to report that the repairs have begun.  The RF fence on Ashburn Field has been replaced where needed.  The only noticeable remaining repair is the reattachment of mesh on all four batters’ eyes.

High Performance Camp began this week.  Looks like there are more than 60 players here right now.  That would include campers, rehabbers, and early reporting spring training participants.  When I identify a significant number of campers, I will publish a list.  Among the 40-man guys, in addition to Seth Johnson, JT, and Bohm, I’ve seen or heard that Marchan, Romano, Strahm, and Nola are here.

The Phillies avoided arbitration this year.  All six arbitration eligible players agreed to one-year contracts.

  1. Ranger Suárez: $8,800,000
  2. Alec Bohm: $7,700,000
  3. Jesús Luzardo: $6,625,000
  4. Bryson Stott: $3,200,000
  5. Brandon Marsh: $3,000,000
  6. Edmundo Sosa: $3,000,000

The Phillies invited 23 non-roster players to attend major league spring training.

  • LHP (2): Tristan Garnett and Nick Vespi
  • RHP (9): Nabil Crismatt, José Cuas, Joel Kuhnel, John McMillon, Griff McGarry,  Nicholas Padilla, Andrew Painter, Austin Schulfer, and Guillo Zuñiga
  • C (5): Josh Breaux, Payton Henry, Paul McIntosh, Caleb Ricketts, Carson Taylor
  • INF (4): Rodolfo Castro, Otto Kemp, Rafael Lantigua, and Aidan Miller
  • OF (3): Justin Crawford, Matt Kroon, and Gabriel Rincones

The Phillies invited 15 NRI last spring.  This year’s group includes two returning NRIs – Kroon and McGarry.  Cuas and Castro were on the 40 last season.  Garnett, Painter, Breaux, Ricketts, Taylor, Kemp, Miller, Crawford, and Rincones are first timers from within the organization.  Vespi, Crismatt, Kuhnel, McMillon, Padilla, Schulfer, Zuniga, Henry, McIntosh, and Lantigua were all acquired this offseason.

The 2025 International Signing Period began on the 15th.  The Phillies bonus pool was $6,262,600.  The Phillies have signed 29 players so far.

  • LHP (3): Carlos Duran, David Hernandez, and Reyner Zambrano
  • RHP (6): Deiry Gonzalez, Diego Marquez, Ramon Marquez, Jorge Mitre, Filippo Sabatini, and Geremi Viloria
  • C (6): Anderson Araujo, Gabriel Azocar, Gabriel Flores, Luis Hernandez, Nelson Prieto, and Deivis Velasquez
  • 2B (1): Samuel Salcedo
  • 3B (1): Domingo Morla
  • SS (6): Roiner Cespede, Romeli Espinosa, Maykol Fernandez, Nieves Izaguirre, Elias Marrero, and Carlos Severino
  • IF (1): Rafael Oropeza
  • OF (5): Elian Adames, Leonardo Carpio, Dayber Cruceta, and Yordanis Guerra, Eduardo Guillen

Important Dates

  • January 15, 2025: Opening of the 2025 signing period for international amateurs
  • January 17-30, 2025: Start of the LBPRC Championship Series (best of nine)
  • January 19, 2025: End of the ABL regular season
  • January 23-26, 2025: ABL Finals Series
  • January 30-February 2, 2024: ABL Championship Series
  • January 31 – February 7, 2025; Caribbean Series – participants will be Mexico, Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico.  Japan will be a new participant based in Mexicali, Mexico.  Recent participants Cuba, Colombia, Nicaragua, Panama, and Curaçao have not been invited.
  • February 12, 2025: Pitchers and catchers are invited to report to Spring Training
    • By rule, no player shall be required to report to Spring Training more than 33 days prior to the start of the regular season, injured players, pitchers, and catchers may be invited no earlier than 43 days, and all other players may be invited to no earlier than 38 days prior to the start of the regular season.
  • February 17, 2025: All other players are invited to report to Spring Training
  • February 22, 2025: Any outstanding players are required to report to Spring Training
  • March 14, 2025: Spring Breakout prospects’ game, Phillies v. Pirates
  • March 27, 2025: Phillies season opener at Washington
  • March 31, 2025: Phillies home opener

Transactions

1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA LHP Carlos Duran to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA LHP David Hernandez to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA LHP Reyner Zambrano to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA RHP Deiry Gonzalez to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA RHP Ramon Marquez to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA RHP Diego Marquez to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA RHP Jorge Mitre to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA RHP Filippo Sabatini to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA RHP Geremy Villoria to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA C Anderson Araujo to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA C Gabriel Azocar to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA C Gabriel Flores to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA C Luis Hernandez to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA C Nelson Prieto to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA C Deivis Velasquez to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA 2B Samuel Salcedo to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA 3B Domingo Morla to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA SS Roiner Cespede to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA SS Romeli Espinosa to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA SS Maykol Fernandez to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA SS Nieves Izaguirre to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA SS Elias Marrero to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA SS Carlos Severino to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA IF Rafael Oropeza to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA OF Elian Adames to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA OF Leonardo Carpio to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA OF Dayber Cruceta to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA OF Yordanis Guerra to an MiLB contract
1/15/2025 – Phillies signed FA OF Eduardo Guillen to an MiLB contract
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster C Josh Breaux to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster C Payton Henry to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster C Paul McIntosh to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster INF Rodolfo Castro to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster INF Rafael Lantigua to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster RHP Nabil Crismatt to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster RHP José Cuas to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster RHP Joel Kuhnel to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster RHP John McMillon to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster RHP Nicholas Padilla to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster RHP Austin Schulfer to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster RHP Guillo Zuñiga to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster LHP Nick Vespi to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster SS Aidan Miller to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster CF Justin Crawford to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster C Caleb Ricketts to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster RF Gabriel Rincones Jr. to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster C Carson Taylor to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster LHP Tristan Garnett to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster RHP Griff McGarry to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster 3B Otto Kemp to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster RHP Andrew Painter to spring training
1/14/2025 – Phillies invited non-roster CF Matt Kroon to spring training
1/10/2025 – Phillies sent RHP Jose Cuas outright to Lehigh Valley
1/07/2025 – LHP Nick Vespi assigned to Lehigh Valley
1/06/2025 – Phillies signed FA LHP Nick Vespi to an MiLB contract

280 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion 1/16/2025”

  1. Jim – on the international signees, any word on who the larger contracts went to?

    The Phils come to camp with 3 spots up for grabs. It will be interesting to watch it play out but all 3 are low impact spots on the 26.

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    1. Phils have signed none of the top 50 international prospects so far although they signed two more from Italy.

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      1. Its all relative…the two Italian boys are the two top from Italy. One of which is Patrick Silva… Cuban-Italian pitcher-infielder who was a star for Italy at the U-15 Baseball World Cup. He is just 15 years old, and his father, Conrado Silva, is a coach for Vercelli and Settimo. Silva was named to the WBSC All-World Team after his strong performance at the U-15 World Cup, batting .481 with seven RBIs in eight games.

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    2. INF Nieves Izaquirre (800,000) VEN
      INF Elias Marrero (700,000) DR
      SS Carlos Severino (200,000) DR
      OF Elian Adames (75,000) DR
      OF Eduardo Guillen (65,000) CUB

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  3. Just saw this quote on Uecker:

    ‘One time I got pulled over at 4am. I was fined $75 for being intoxicated, and $400 for being with the Phillies.’

    Hope he’s in Heaven’s Front Row!

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    1. One thing for sure ……. he’ll have them in stitches! His induction speech with his Dad buying him a “football” and the tale of his Mom making him a pair of shorts for “basketball” out of flour sacks were “classics”!

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  4. “Baseball America highlighted RHP Geremi Viloria, from Venezuela. Aside from his 6-2 frame, he already has a fastball that can hit 93 mph and is developing a slider”

    Looks like the Phillies are signing many of Ronald Acuna’s family……already Aroon Escobar is in the system….now Nieves Izaguirre…another cousin.

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  6. Regarding Sasaki, whichever team signs him, you would think it would eat up the majority of their Int signing pool $. If these deals are agredd on 1-2 years before they are allowed to sign, does that mean that there are going to be several players suddenly lose their handshake agreement with the eventual Sasaki winner?

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  7. I assume a Sasaki signing would consume all of a team’s international signing pool money and that any handshake agreement with others would go out the window, resulting in both some unhappiness and an opportunity for teams positioned to swoop in

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  8. There’s an article online with Empire Sports Media by Alexander Wilson. The headline reads “Mets struggling to dump $19 million INFIELDER”. Either the guy knows nothing about Starling Marte or he didn’t bother to check the headline.

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    1. Yes, Rickardo Perez is still in the organization. There aren’t many LA players at the HPC at the Complex. There is an HPC being held at the Phillies’ Dominican Academy during the same time frame. I expect he’s there.

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  10. I watched Johnson, Strahm, and Romano throw BP today. Strahm looked like he was going at close to 100%. His FB had zip on it and his other pitches were dippin’ and dartin’. I asked him afterward, He said “No, not quite. Gotta protect the arm.”

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  12. Eagle and Flea. Yes, some kids who had agreements are suddenly going to find themselves without deals. On the 15th, a prospect who was thought to have an agreement with the Dodgers (I think it was the Dodgers) jumped ship and was signed by another team.

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    1. $1 Million to boot. It reminds me of all those trades to the Os and Dbacks back in the day that we unloaded prospects for slot money. And those names never really became anything.

      We literally got 500k almost every yr from the Os cause they just didn’t invest in international prospects.

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          1. Is that really a good thing? I’m not so sure.

            It’s one thing to hide a player’s injury – that’s dirty pool and it’s wrong. But otherwise, DD should be like Howie Roseman – worry about yourself and your team, not in giving proper consideration back to the other side. If the other team wants to do a stupid deal, let them do it – DD owes no duty to another GM only to the Phillies.

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            2. I doubt he is concerned at all about giving other GMs a fair deal – he’s too experienced to think that way. But what he probably does do is interest opposing GMs by starting with a fair offer so they don’t blow him off. My understanding of a guy like Billy Beane is that he throws offers up around the league constantly hoping someone will bite and it’s often negotiation by ambush where he calls another GM out of the blue and makes an immediate take-it-or-leave-it offer and if the other GM hesitates, he pulls the offer and says no thanks. This approach was outlined in the movie Moneyball and resulted in the Phillies getting Jeremy Giambi and the Ed Wade character on the phone is so hilariously suspicious – YET HE DOES THE DEAL ANYWAY! It’s not dirty pool, but not many people are eager to deal with a guy like that.

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  14. Dodgers signing Sasaki is a (Howard Eskin voice) JOKE. Sasaki was going to the Dodgers all along – the charade of ‘interviewing’ other teams was a (Eskin) JOKE and a FRAUD.

    MLB needs to look into this – (a) Dodgers salary model, (b) Toronto trading to acquire $$$.

    End of Day, MLB should suspend ALL non-US Dodger players – from Otani to Freeman, for 60 games, but defer the suspension until September.

    Seriously isn’t MLB worried about (a) Deferred Money, (b) any semblance of competitive balance. If I was Pads, I’d yard sale for prospects. Same for Giants.

    Frankly Middleton should approach Harper, offer to rip up contract, sign hum for $50m more – but at a base of $5m, and defer $200m. Same for Turner, Wheeler, Nola, etc., take the $80m in 2025 Salary, give em new deals at a base of $5m each – defer another $200m.

    End of day, it’s Dodgers – Phils – Braves. And that’s assuming Phils and Braves remain healthy.

    One thing I can say in favor of NFL – teams all play with around the same money. Winning teams differentiate by drafting, player development and salary management. Green Bay and Tampa Bay similar chance as Giants, Jets and Rams. But MLB can’t get this right.

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    1. LOL…..” But MLB can’t get this right.”……..it is not MLB, it is MLBPA.

      They will not even approve of an international draft at the SAME slot money as the Rule 4. They refuse any talks of ‘hard-caps’ like other professional leagues.

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      1. Romus. I mentioned to oldruff that maybe the Dodgers can play in both leagues this season. Seems most players have signed with them. LOL

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          2. Romus ……. you are correct and besides I feel so much better now that DD has bridged the gap and gone all-in on Koyo Aoyagi. We maybe can’t do the Iron Chef concession yet, but maybe egg rolls to see if it will fly. Kind of work are way up to General Tso’s chicken …… after all we have the cheese steak stigma to overcome……… takes awhile … play it safe ….. the Philly Way!😉

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          3. At least the Phillies have finally started….have to get a foot in the door. Signing young players from the Pacific Rim like Australia and Taiwan is good….but they are prospects and the success rate to MLB status is not high. Phillies have to get those Japanese established players who already found success in the NPB….which is probably the second best professional baseball league outside of the US MLB.

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    2. deferred money doesn’t change the cap hit they get for the contract so they aren’t somehow sneaking around the salary cap. Dodgers are the biggest market team on the west coast and have a natural advantage with players coming from Asia for that reason.

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      1. “deferred money doesn’t change the cap hit they get for the contract so they aren’t somehow sneaking around the salary cap.”

        It is a terrible loop hole that they found and materially favors big market teams. It should be not allowed. All money paid in a contract should be prorated over playing years.

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        1. Dodgers didn’t find it. The Nationals has significant deferred money in several of their contracts when they won their WS title.

          But the cap hit doesn’t change. Othani might be making $2 million but his cap number is for the tax calculation is $46m

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    3. it’s total crap that Sasaki went to the Dodgers imho. Mainly because it’s after Yomomoto & ohtani. To boot, if it wasn’t LAD, it would’ve been LAA or SD … notice a trend? The Mon needs to do something. It’s clear as day that any player from Japan will essentially pick a west coast team. ADD Seattle, maybe the AZ can stretch it or a NY team. The rest of the league not apply. You don’t even need a handshake deal … but they very likely had that as well. It’s pointless now as LAD. Has basically already gotten all the top talent now but how about if sign a Japanese player in 2025, you can’t sign a Japanese player until 2027, and your slot money is maxed out at .05% for a Japanese only player until 2029. It’s a rant, but something needs to be done up keep these teams (cough LAD) from having what is essentially an extra talent pool.

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            1. Is that fair to the North America kids who have to graduated HS, when the majority are 18-years old or the college guys who have to do three years, sans those who do the JUCO system?

              No ….two distinct drafts are needed. UNLESS, MLB can convince the Latin caucus to wait for a kid to be 18-years old before being drafted….but doubt that will ever happen.

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      2. Not sure why anybody is surprised about this. I’ve been saying this for years. From MLBTR: “Philadelphia never had a chance to get Sasaki”.

        The one team that should be pissed is the Blue Jays. They were used to increase the payout.

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  15. I don’t really know if I should be concerned. Deferred money should be addressed but Ohtani is a special case because of his endorsement wealth. It’s not a contagion in baseball.

    I don’t see the point in crying over the Sasaki signing. It’s a gamble for the Dodgers since if he throws out his arm next year, the Dodgers will have lost a Latin American draft class with that money going to Sasaki. And it could make handshake deals in LA harder for them in the future.

    I like the challenge of a Phillies rotation going up against a deep Dodgers rotation. If the Phils’ bats are earning their salaries, we’ll be ok. If not, we won’t even be the second best team in the NL.

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  16. At least we have a huge payroll, imagine being a Rockies fan. It sucks but Japanese players are more likely to sign with west coast teams. We need to do a better job with our long term FA signings, right now those are what is killing us.

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    2. MLB Pipeline has already slotted him in at 27. The Dodgers were clearly aggressive with his promotion (spent the entire year at High-A at age 21/22) and it didn’t work out. Looks like he’ll be a plus defender but until he starts making better contact, he’s a lotto ticket.

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      2. Why do you say “it didn’t work out well”?

        I thought he had a good season for his first full year.
        – 42 stolen bases
        – 10 homers as a 22 yo.
        – 10% walk rate
        – 22% K rate.

        Fangraphs has a 50 hit, 60 field. Add in base stealing ability and that is a legit prospect.

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        1. I guess I shouldn’t be expecting that much when trading international money.

          Looking at the write up in MLB Pipeline, they are saying that he could be a big league 4th OF if ha can cut down on his swing and miss.

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  18. Just remember that great starting pitching wins lots of games, especially when you have good defense. Kepler is a very good RF so that should translate to LF as well. 5 good starting pitchers is unusual so if they stay healthy, we’ll still be very good.

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  19. Bringing in Aoyagi to ST is a start.

    But the Phillies should start petitioning MLB to give them some games in Tokyo/South Korea. It can’t always be the Dodgers playing over there (and getting more exposure).

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  20. I am done watching Major League Baseball. This sport now resembles Professional Wrestling more than it does a sport. The Dodgers signing every Asian player imaginable, and then poking everyone in the eye and giving Tanner Scott 4 and 72 is just ridiculous.

    The fact that there are other teams spending less than $75M on their annual payroll while other teams are giving that much to 1-2 or maybe 3 players has just created such an imbalance it’s not even fun anymore.

    I’m done watching until this sport does something to level the playing field. And we are way ahead of 80% of the teams, but it’s still very unfair and frustrating.

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    1. Ridiculous! The Dodgers have crazy pitching depth and still expected to resign Kershaw. Can someone buy a championship?

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  22. Andrew Knapp retired from baseball….like to see John Middleton/Dave Dombrowski offer him a job as a catcher coach , to start, at the A level. Work with the young guys like Tait.

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    1. Knapp always seemed very, very serious about his job – it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he wanted to coach (or become a corporate executive type – this guy has a future somewhere). He can also teach the youngsters how to adjust their batting gloves . . . between . . . every . . . pitch. Oops, I guess you can’t do that anymore.

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      1. He’s also a cautionary tale about putting too much weight on aberrant minor league statistics in hitter-friendly leagues/parks. Knapp went completely nuts at AA for about 55 games and it looked like a breakout moment. Spoiler alert – it wasn’t.

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  24. Who is a good comp Gabriel Rincones Jr.? Let’s construct him as a hitter with the key peripherals:

    – Walk rate: GRJ has had a consistent walk rate in double digits. Warms my heart. Love seeing minor leaguers who are willing to work an AB. 

    – Strikeouts: GRJ is a power hitter. No doubt about that. His minor league K rate has been consistently in the 25%’ish range. Pretty standard for a power hitter. We can live with that. That said, there is risk here that it creeps up to the 30%+ range in the majors. If that happens, he needs to hit 25+ homers to be effective. As an example, Zach Gelof hit 17 homers last year and led the majors in strikeout rate at 34%. His BA was .211 and OB% was .270. OPS .632. Not good. 

    – Homer power. Last year at age 23, he homered every 26 PAs. Over a 600 PA season, that would be 20-25 homers. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him add more power and have a 30 homer season at some point. The power is there. 

    – BABIP. He looks like an average BABIP type player. League average is .300

    – Handed splits. This is a big red flag for GRJ. He only hit .189 against LHP last year (albeit in inly 37 ABs). In 2023 in a lower level, he hit .209 against LHP (in 86 ABs). It’s a small sample, but definitely a red flag. I wonder if his low plate appearance against LHP is because they sat him against LHP. Obviously if that was the case, that is a real issue.

    – Assuming that he isn’t a platoon, the math of a player with a 27% K rate, 10% walk rate and a .300 BABIP produces a hitter with a ~.250 batting average and a .350 OB%. Add in 25 homers and that is a good player. That said, the LHP splits in the minors are bad. If he can’t hit LHP, then he is a platoon.

    So who is a good comp?

    Those stats align to the age 30 season (2024) of Taylor Ward. Want another comp? Las year, Nick Castellanos had a 21% K rate, a 6% walk rate and 23 homers. His BA  was .254, with a .311 OB%. Nick has a lower K rate and a lower walk rate, but that feels about right. However, that company has one BIG assumption, that GRJ can hit LHP.

    What can go wrong?

    1. Can’t hit LHP at MLB level. Is a AAAA guy or a platoon.

    2. K rate goes above 30%. 

    What do you think? 

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    1. His upside might be a bit better than Brandon Moss (don’t laugh, Moss made an AS team), with the possibility of a longer MLB shelf life. I like Rincones a lot – it’s all about whether the hit tool will be good enough to highlight his other skills (power, plate discipline).

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      1. It’s not horribly far at all, especially since Rincones missed a lot of time with injury last year. The one difference is hit tool – can Rincones hit enough to make his other skills viable? We shall see.

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        1. Feel free to come up with a better comp – but Moss was the guy I thought of without thoroughly researching the issue.

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      2. The numbers might be somewhat similar but Marsh has 60 grade speed and GRJ has 30 grade speed. Defense ability is vastly different too.

        Interesting about Marsh, he did not have any issues hitting LHP in minors.

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        1. I really wish the Phillies would just put Marsh in the OF and let him play vs righties and lefties. Maybe he just doesn’t hit Left-handed pitching and he becomes a platoon player but I don’t think they have giving him the opportunity to prove it one way or the other.

          His splits aren’t good but he also often only gets at-bats against left-handers late in games vs. bullpen specialists because they are leading and want the defense.

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          1. I think he plays a lot. But he seems to always get hurt throughout the year. He doesn’t seem like 150 game guy

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  25. Hi guys. I spent the morning at the Complex in low to mid 40s temp. Gonna be a cold fantasy camp this week.

    Last week the high performance campers spent most of their time indoors. They did come outside to throw and some of the pitchers started throwing bullpens.

    Today, the position players ventured outside and took fielding practice. Mostly groundballs. Of particular interest to me was Aidan Miller at shortstop. Others of note – Rincon at 3B, De Martini, Villavincencio, and Rincon at SS, Escobar and Anthony at 2B. Rincon was the only one I saw at multiple positions.

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    2. Hi JIm. Mid 40s would seem like a heat wave here. 1 degree this morning. It is to be below zero wind chill the next 2 days and then finally warming some Thursday. Enjoy the balmy weather. LOL

      Have you always been in the Clearwater area? I found some old pics the other day I took of the Carpenter complex in either 72 or 73. I looked those two up and a short strike was one and lockout the other. The gates were locked but neither date really coincided with what my Spring Break would have been here. That is the extent of my Spring Training. I am glad you get to go frequently.

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      1. Agreed……he is rather a solid muscular guy, but I am sure they are thinking , with his bat, that would be one great experimental success if he can stay there. Turning the DP will be the test. Then again maybe they envision him being a versatility guy with a bat.

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  26. I was wondering on thoughts on Otto Kemp. He spent most of last year in AA with a cup of coffee at AAA. To me he seems to be a dark horse candidate for 3B if the position opens up this year. Also plays 2B and 1B with a dash of experience in OF.

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    1. Don’t forget his AZFL performance where he OPS’d 1.194 with 15 Ks to 11 BBs.

      He’s definitely a guy that at 25 should get a lengthy audition to see if he can stick.

      Sadly though the Phillies are risk averse when it comes to giving guys like him a shot. I’m sure we will see a lot from him in ST. I’m sure the league is paying attention to him as well.

      I guess pay attention to where they have him defensively to see what they are thinking.

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    1. i don’t really ever route against anybody or organization but i’ll be routing against the dodgers this year, wishing them nothing but bad fortune cookies in 2025

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      1. Wait they got Yates too I missed that. I really wanted him for our BP.

        Well we’ve seen teams win the offseason before only to get clipped in the playoffs.

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        1. A lot in baseball is random, but there is a huge talent gap between the Dodgers and whoever you think is the second most talented team in baseball. It’s pretty significant.

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          1. When it comes to the Japanese free agent signings…….like to see rival owners voice heir displeasure….especially ownership in San Diego, Arizona and San Francisco. Seems until the owners collectively approach Manfred and MLB and want new directives about signing professional players from foreign leagues , I do not see anything changing.

            It is one thing that the Dodgers , Yankees and few other major market hot spots get 16 year old Latin players to sign on with them, where there are no guarantee of future superstardom……but continuing to get the best 23 year old, and older, established foreign professional players, is really a slap in the face to the integrity of the sport.

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            1. This discussion seems to harbor a perspective that I don’t share — that there is a small supply of Japanese players that high profile teams like the Dodgers can out-compete the competition to sign. Why?

              If the Phils want to be active in the Japanese market, they should be, with a recognition that that there are more quality players there than the Dodgers or any other single team could hope to sign.

              The money is right in MLB and the Phils have the money. It’s an example of small minded thinking that the number of Japanese players to post has to remain what it has been.

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            2. I see your point….but lets be realistic about…….a Japanese star has to be posted by their host team in order for them to transfer to the MLB…..so there in lies a cash outlay, that quite frankly small market teams will not be able to produce in order to remain within their budgets. Invariably, the many star players there, and I am not talking about starter or relief pitchers there in their mid-30s, may not all get posted if their teams want to keep them to remain competitive in their own league.

              Now I am glad the Phillies finally opened up to sign one, but for the most part it appears the superstars from the JBL will prefer specific destinations. Which is fine since they are technically free agents.

              I believe however, some directive needs to be put in place to have an equitable chance for all teams to share in the process of signing a player.

              Like

  28. I’m sure DD and Mattingly are hoping for the 2023 version of Kepler but even that version screams platoon player. And it will be a long season if we end up with the 2024 version. Especially at $10 million.

    Not that $10 million was getting you much these days.

    Its almost like they are doubling down on the Whit fiasco.

    Like

    1. I fully expect the OF to be a rotating cast of low WAR production AGAIN and that will be their demise if it isn’t chasing low and away.. shocked they’ve gone so far with the cast out there over the past few years but that should really show you how valuable Wheels/Nols have been and how screwed things are if either goes down…

      for S&G’s I took a peak at BR OF WAR over the past 20 years:

      2024 20th 4.2 1st was 20.4 Diff of 16.2
      2023 15th 7.8 1st was 16.3 Diff of 8.5
      2022 20th 3.7 1st was 17.0 Diff of 16.3
      2021 7th 9.5 1st was 15.3 Diff of 5.8
      2020 22th 1.3 1st was 7.4 Diff of 6.1
      2019 16th 7.9 1st was 17.1 Diff of 9.2
      2018 20th 4.4 1st was 23.0 Diff of 18.6
      2017 13th 7.0 1st was 16.6 Diff of 9.6
      2016 29th 1.3 1st was 20.2 Diff of 18.9
      2015 26th 4.3 1st was 13.1 Diff of 8.8
      2014 28th 2.5 1st was 17.9 Diff of 15.4
      2013 28th 0.5 1st was 15.0 Diff of 14.5
      2012 19th 6.2 1st was 18.8 Diff of 12.6
      2011 15th 7.5 1st was 16.9 Diff of 9.4
      2010 10th 10.0 1st was 16.7 Diff of 6.7
      2009 3rd 12.1 1st was 17.9 Diff of 5.8
      2008 5th 12.1 1st was 14.5 Diff of 2.4
      2007 2nd 14.3 1st was 15.6 Diff of 1.3
      2006 12th 8.6 1st was 17.0 Diff of 8.4
      2005 2nd 14.1 1st was 14.8 Diff of 0.7
      2004 13th 8.3 1st was 18.1 Diff of 9.8

      The whole Harper/Hoskins things really messed up the plan eh… I get by cherry picking the Top team and showing the Diff it’s not exactly “fair” and should have used League Avg to compare the Phils to the baseline but i wanted to show how far off they are each year in the OF compared to the top team, and if you look at the top teams by OF WAR each season, you won’t be shocked to know they are all very good teams in those years… so what are the phils doing here, what is the play.. rentals each year in Left.. try out the youth in center… trade folks hoping to hit with Marsh, leave Casty out there 162 times… Kempler and or Crawford coming down the pipes is not a good organization plan for the OF, they need to really figure it out out there

      Liked by 1 person

      1. The Phils seem intent on a 2026 salary re-set. So I don’t look for any long term FA signings. I think they’ll get the best reliever they can sign on a one year deal. And that any substantial improvement in the OF will await the 2025 trade deadline where the Phils will look primarily,perhaps exclusively, at rentals.

        Like

        1. agreed.. just not sure they even see an OF path for the future nor does it seem they can develop one from the farm…. will be very interesting to see what becomes of Crawford be it he gets a chance next year or is traded away

          Like

          1. steved…..there is a reason they drafted two of the best HS OFers in the first two rounds last year. That is the path they see….then add in Crawford and perhaps another FA in 2/3 years and maybe that is their long term strategic plan.

            Liked by 1 person

            1. 2 more seasons of Nick seems like an eternity and I love what the guy brings to the team and I value that edge he gives to the young guys but that has run its course.

              New ownership same MO other than JM will spend a lot more $$$ than the prior regime.

              The earth beneath an MLB GM is always moving and you can find yourself ahead of, or behind the 8 ball very quick.

              I truly believe JM is a kind and decent man and that in pro sports can be both a blessing and a curse.

              Perhaps with a few guys in their walk years and what roughly $69 mil in AAV coming off the books they add a 29 y/o Kyle Tucker for 2026.

              They can also shed some of Nick’s remaining $20 mil and Walkers $18 mil possibly. But either way after 2026 you have that $38 mil for the 27 FA period when Tarik Skubal might be an FA or Crochet

              And then conceivably have a pretty good team in 26-27-28 if Crawford becomes just a decent everyday player (maybe more) late this year and into the following years, followed by Miller and Nori.

              But this season should be about seeing what you might have in guys like Rincones and Kemp.

              Blue Skies ahead!

              Liked by 1 person

            3. I don’t see Acuna having a super long productive career, could be wrong but a dynamic guy like that starts having too many knee problems and the dynamics fade just like sand through an hourglass but i do like the genetic lineage the family produces and drafting the ilk is a fine play.

              Liked by 1 person

  29. hall of fame question. Utley seems like a long term lock and Rollins seems to barely have the votes to stay in the conversation. But my memory of Utley is that after the five years of dominance he spent most seasons sidelined by his knees. Five, six or even seven years of dominance doesn’t seem like enough (to me) to get in the hall especially when his decline was pretty stark. Meanwhile my memory is that Rollins was the spark for the Phils’ offense from his rookie season to his trade and that he won an MVP and was a top if not elite shortstop for a much longer span than Utley was at 2nd base. Is my memory faulty? Would Utley be a HOFer if he played shortstop with those same stats? what am I missing?

    Like

    1. You’re missing the extent of Chase Utley’s greatness during his incredible 6 year run (among the best all-time among 2nd basemen) and his overall productivity (close to 65 WAR – which is huge). When I watched him play I was sure I was looking at a HOFer – he was stupendous at his peak.

      Rollins was a really good player and sometimes great player, but he was often only good to very good, which is fine (especially his consistency in the field – it was something to behold), but I really never gave his HOF candidacy a serious thought.

      Like

      1. I think the writers will look at it that way also. And Utley ending up in LA his last four years with a positive, if just a pedestrian WAR, does not hurt his respectability with the writers in the West.

        Like

        1. His post-baseball career as MLB’s “ambassador” to Great Britain might help also. It certainly can’t hurt. He has been able to remain in a baseball sphere in a good way and didn’t go out and do or say things that others have done and said that may have hurt their candidacies.

          Like

            1. But on that note, Rollins has plenty of commentating gigs with various networks and promotes the game as well. If his elite work at shortstop for a dozen+ years, his career records with the Phillies, and above average counting stats, along with a World Series trophy, MVP, gold gloves, etc. don’t make him a serious candidate for the Hall, then why should Utley be a near-lock for 6 years of greatness and a few trips across the pond to talk about baseball?

              I love them both (obviously), but to say Utley should have some huge leg up over Rollins does a pretty big disservice to Rollins’ career in my opinion, regardless of what you think of the caliber of player that should be admitted to the Hall in the first place.

              Like

            4. “if Baines gets in with 38WAR, why not Rollins with 48WAR”

              Because Baines should have never gotten in – that’s why. Baines’ inexcusable admission does not justify another player getting in.

              And, no, Rollins at his peak was nowhere near as valuable as Utley at his peak and artificially lowering the WAR qualification for a “great” season doesn’t change that.

              Listen, I loved Jimmy Rollins. He was a really fine player and was sometimes a truly great player. His consistent defense is not to be underestimated – he made the makeable play virtually without exception along with some super difficult plays. You watch Trea Turner in the field for a while and you appreciate how reliable Rollins truly was. He was tenacious and courageous and was a leader. And his MVP season was superb.

              That said, I just think he falls short of being a HOFer – but I certainly wouldn’t mind if he got in – I just think he’s not quite there, which is no insult to him.

              Like

            6. It’s a complete outlier – Baines is not the new standard for HOF admission. Agree to strongly disagree.

              Like

          2. The more difficult calls are Abreu and Hamels. Both had just about 60 WAR – I think both will ultimately fall short, but it wouldn’t shock me if, some time from now, Abreu gets admitted by the Veterans’ Committee. I am not saying what I would prefer, but what I think will happen.

            If Hamels had won a Cy Young or had had a few more 3-4 WAR seasons at the end of his career, his candidacy would have been much stronger.

            Like

  30. Sitcom,

    IMO… Neither Chase nor Jimmy have the Career Numbers typically needed to reach Cooperstown (Home Runs, RBI’s, Hits, Batting Average, etc.) but neither do a lot of guys in “modern” baseball. What Chase has going for him was his dominance at his position for about 7 or 8 years. He was the best in the game over that span. And he was clutch in the playoffs too. Some of the newer voters will look at more advanced stats like WAR where Chase has a very respectable 64.5. For reference, Ryne Sandberg had a 68 WAR and Roberto Alomar a 67… So Chase is close to them. Chase’s first year on the ballot saw him with more votes (29%) than Scott Rolen (10.2%) and he got in so I think Chase has a shot. We’ll soon see if he gets a bump over last years totals. (Side note… there are a lot of voters who won’t vote for a guy on the first ballot but that’s a discussion for another day)

    Jimmy didn’t hit the most HR’s, or get the most hits or or extra base hits or steal the most bases… but what he did do was combine Hits, Homers, Doubles, Triples, Stolen Bases and fantastic defense like very few before him. That, to me, warrants strong consideration for the HOF. But I’m just not sure his 48 WAR will get the newer generation’s vote.

    Bottom line… I think Chase gets in but Jimmy doesn’t. Although I’d vote YES for both.

    Like

  31. thanks for the very helpful explanations. It makes sense even if I don’t care as much about WAR as other people. I still don’t feel Chase was elite for enough years to warrant HOF even if that’s almost entirely due to injuries. I’d vote for Jimmy before Chase but I’d be happy if both got in.

    Like

  32. Jayson Stark had a good article about the Phillies keystone combo and the HOF in The Athletic. To paraphrase – Utley based upon modern analysis is a surefire HOF because he was so dominant at his peak – many advanced metrics rated him the 2nd best player for 5 years in all of MLB behind only Pujols – see Jay Jaffe, among others. What he lacks are “old time” counting stats because of his injuries and his career started when he was 26. He is the prototypical “new” HOF ‘er because his peak value exceeded almost all other current HOF 2nd basemen. Among his peers – he is considered the finest, smartest, most driven player of that era. With no one remotely comparable. To quote Doc H – he wanted to play with the Phillies because of the “great” Utley and what he brought to the game. The Dodgers purposely acquired Utley to drive the other players and despite being a shadow of himself – he was lauded for that in the clubhouse.

    Rollins otoh – is an “old fashioned” HOF candidate – given that his counting stats, not WAR, are actually more impressive than any other shortstop in the HOF now. He not only hit, but hit with power ; he was a clinic in the field ; but his combination of speed in 3B and SB is unmatched among other shortstops. Not only that but he won GG and an MVP. More counting stats. He was proficient in every single category – offense and defense.

    Eventually I would suggest – as does Stark (and Jaffe for that matter) that Utley will get in – in several years. Rollins will have a longer and tougher road because he will be judged against modern analytical methods when his career was about the counting stats. If I had to bet, I say he makes it eventually (the vets committee, etc.) . Having watched Phillies baseball for more than 70++ years I can think of no two more deserving players – they were the greatest keystone combo of the 21st century so far. They were the equivalent of Trammell and Whitaker of the Tigers (only one of whom is a HOF – which is a travesty). Here’s to # 26 and 11 !!!

    Like

    2. was going to mention that article, this point and question are the exact examples/scenario unfolding… eventually the hall will/has to change or nobody gets in.. i’m sure some prefer that but it’s not practical haha

      Like

  33. Not sure I’d vote for Utley or Rollins based on my long-term belief that career stats should be super stellar to qualify for the HOF. But given what appear to be today’s standards, then it’s heck yeah for both of ’em.

    Like

    1. Utley’s career WAS super stellar – do you think Billy Wagner was a more valuable player than Chase Utley? It is not even close.

      Liked by 2 people

      1. It was fitting for a closer to have to wait till the last final chance, was nice story on BW and his journey while awaiting the votes the past few years up on the Athletic the other day.

        interesting info to obtain though i’m not going to go to the effort to obtain would be avg player career length per decade going back to when baseball started… seemed guys in the 40/50/60/70/80s had a much easier path at counting stats being as the avg career was long, these days, what’s a avg MLB Career in comparision right?

        not to say it’s right or wrong or one feat is better then another, it’s just simply guys won’t play as long now as the team replaces them upon decline in old age… comparing BW or CU or Jimmy to guys from the 40’s really makes no sense to me, that wasn’t there era, wasn’t there competition.. if that is the yardstick forever then nobody gets in moving forward bc nobody plays long enough… now i can’t say i really felt that way back in the early 00’s but two decades later the writing is clearer on how the hall will eventually morph as the writer/voters age more and some pass and some are replaced with the young

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  34. Next year Utley will see a significant jump in votes since there is no 1st time HOF candidate; next year’s 1st time rep on the ballot with the greatness career is our own COle Hamels. Chase will get in one day, it may be in 2029 but it will occur.

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  35. he’s in imo, since he’s a 2B. Another position it would be harder as his numbers wouldn’t likely stack up from his dominant years alone. His playoff performance against the yanks was pretty good too. Hell theey should let him in just piss off Mets fans! I think Rollins gets in as well, but I’d have to examine the HOF SS in more detail. It’ll be close if he does from what I saw before

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  36. haven’t listen to this before but saw Todd Z link it in his email earlier https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/phillies-pitching-coach-caleb-cotham-talks-wheeler/id1738537069?i=1000684213615

    good listen so far.. was also reading a bit on Aoyagi and his NPB numbers… nice to have that funky stuff when funky stuff is needed… there is always a time in a game if the other team gets some momentum going with the bats to bring in an arm like that and change their eye

    Like

  37. When I was a kid, players had to hit certain milestones to be a lock for the HOF… 500 Homers, 3,000 Hits, 3,000 K’s, 300 Wins…

    Now that I’m an old guy, we see an interesting difference between the “old school” vs. “new school” assessment of players’ stats and who deserves to go into the HOF…

    Chase Utley didn’t start his career until age 26. He missed significant time due to injuries… partially because of bad luck and partially because of the way he played. We all know he was, for a good 6-7 years, not just the best second baseman but one of the best players in the league. That said, his career numbers don’t add up to the other great second basemen currently in the Hall.

    Now look at Jamie Moyer. He racked up 269 Wins… Way more than Roy Halliday (203), Don Drysdale (209), Pedro Martinez (219), Sandy Koufax (165)… I could go on and on. But nobody in their right mind would take Jamie Moyer over any of those guys listed above. Jamie pitched 25 years so basically he averaged about 11 wins per year which is certainly not Dominant. He had great career numbers but he never dominated. That’s why he’s not in the Hall and I think Chase will be.

    Just my humble opinion

    Like

    1. to the same Jamie Moyer point, I don’t think a lot of HOF 2Bmen would be taken over a healthy Utley in there right minds. It’s not just Philly fanfare, Utley was a special player. HOF lock since it’s the best player of the era, not necessarily hitting certain stats.

      refresh my memory? How did the Phillies let a HOF (or borderline HOF) sit in their minors until he was 26?
      thank Eddie wade for not trading this guy as well. He got offers from what I remember too

      Like

      1. Back then, the Phillies were NOT one of the teams that promoted aggressively. That said, he made his debut in 2003 at age 24.

        2003: 43 games, .696 OPS. Note that Placido Polanco played most of the time at 2B and generated 4.6 WAR.

        2004: 94 games, .776 OPS. Placido Polanco again played most of the time at 2B but his WAR significantly went down to 1.7.

        2005: He was the full time starter.

        Can’t really complain too much about this timeline. Chase probably should have made his debut in 2002 at age 23 if the Phillies were a little more aggressive.

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        1. As I recall, our frustration wasn’t about Utley vs. Polanco. Most of the fans like Polanco. But the Phillies gave a bunch of money to David Bell who just wasn’t all that. They would have done much better to move PP to 3B and promote Utley and use Bell’s money on a pitcher.

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  38. MLB wouldn’t have made chase the euro mlb ambassador if they themselves didn’t view him in such high regard… i mean he is the Man! he’ll get in.. probably be the last hard nose kind of player the league sees really… like happy gilmore up there eating em high and in

    Like

    1. noted, i’ll post the link next time so long as it’s fine for athletic links.. maybe some are subscribers i guess

      Like

  41. Braves pickup Profar They seem to do this a lot, make such signing AFTER all the big moves are made and have a sneaky good offseason. Hopefully Profar reverts back to his negative war years

    Like

      1. i’d rather have had profar at 1 yr 14-18m vs 1 year kepler at 10m or whatever but i wouldn’t have pulled a multi year deal with profar, no need to ad aging bad defenders to the payroll to play the outfield after 1 solid season at what 31 ? pass

        Like

        1. Agree. Profar has by far the best year of his career at the age of 31. Now maybe he finally figured it out or maybe he just had an outlier of the season.

          I might be up for the gamble that he figured it out if he was a good defensive player and had some speed, but he’s a bat only player and if he doesn’t hit, he’s unplayable.

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    2. I’ve seen Crawford play and remember making a similar assessment of the reads and routes he takes in CF. With his athleticism I’d expect that to improve over time.

      As for his offensive game I just have to laugh. He has the foundational tools there to be successful. I’ve no worries that he won’t hold his own in the MLB eventually.

      No doubt he is going to have to experience them first but I favor him being able to make the appropriate adjustments to have success in the league.

      To think at just 21 he won’t be able to improve is crazy.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. The encouraging thing with Crawford is that his groundball rate dropped 9% in one season which seems to indicate he’s making adjustments in his swing to get more loft.

        I generally agree with the assessments that he won’t have long-term success with a GB% in the 60s but it’s good news that he makes solid contact with good exit velocity so his issues aren’t a lack of power but a need to adjust his swing path.

        As for his defense, I suspect he will learn to get better reads and take better angles in CF. His speed will make him league average as worst.

        Like

  43. “Maybe A.J. Brown will want to revisit baseball — when you’re a catcher, the ball is thrown to you constantly” just about spit out my drink hahahaha

    Liked by 2 people

  44. I like Matt’s work in general but you’d think he was evaluating wing walkers or free solo mountain climbers by the way he slaps ‘high risk’ on prospects. In this world, a ‘low risk’ prospect is not so much a prospect but someone who tore up MLB pitching or hitters as a previous September’s call up. Which is to say his ‘low risk’ prospects are as common as white elephants.

    An organization which aggressively pushes prospects up the ladder before they’re ready attaches greater risk on all its prospects. But as has been discussed here, this is not the Phils’ pattern.

    Painter and Miller have performed well at every level and are believed to be in good health. If they are ‘high risk’, then so are 99.5 % of guys languishing in the minors such that the term ‘high risk’ is obliterated of all meaning.

    Liked by 1 person

      2. The Crawford writeup is depressing because it is hard to argue. A combo of a high ground ball rate, relatively high K rate and little power is not a combo you see in MLB as a productive hitter. If his defense is truly not good (new info to me) then that’s not a good prospect. Obviously others disagree on him. I hope that he is wrong.

        It is surprising to me with a father who was an MLB superstar that he has swing issues.

        Like

        1. I agree. I thought the glove was good. This is a little disappointing but I’m hopeful he can still make improvements to all facets of his game.

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        2. Well, we’ll see – not every prospects turns out as one would hope.

          That said, the write-up on Chace is outstanding – that was the only shocker of his top 5 – having this guy ranked third. Wow. That trade might have been worth it for Seth Johnson alone, but to also get Chace – outstanding scouting on that one. And what were the Orioles thinking (not that I care that much)?

          Liked by 1 person

    2. ff, This might help. These are the descriptions for the different levels of risk that have been used by scouts for assessing a prospect’s overall potential for reaching his ceiling. These were Baseball America’s about 6 years ago. I’m sure Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus (Matt contributes here), and others use same or similar descriptors.

      Risk: Description
      Safe: Has shown realistic ceiling, ready to contribute
      Low: Likely to reach realistic ceiling, certain MLB career barring injury
      Medium: Some work to reach MLB caliber skills, but fairly polished player
      High: Most picks in 1st season, players w/projection left, injury history
      Extreme: Teens in rookie ball, significant injury history, struggle w/key skill

      Like

      1. Thanks, Jim. That’s helpful. Without any intention to quibble, I wonder how the categories shake out in real world settings.

        The Orioles Jackson Holliday was by acclamation the #1 2024 prospect. I’m guessing he’d be seen as a safe prospect by scouting standards. Yet he struggled, got demoted and perhaps has graduated to the point where I don’t see him on 2025 lists. His glide path wasn’t smooth and he certainly wasn’t “ready to contribute.”. I realize no one is claiming scouting systems are infallible — I’m just wondering to what extent the ‘safe to extreme risk’ designations can can be seen as useful to fans, aside from the scouts themselves.

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        1. Jackson Holliday had 208 PAs and 190 ABs last season…..one reason why he is no longer on any prospect lists is because he is no longer considered a rookie/nor prospects. He is over the minimum now.

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  45. Dug in a littler deeper on the Fangraphs writeup of Crawford. I think it is unfairly harsh and I think there is a really good offensive comp for him.

    First, the criticism on Crawford’s bat. Eric’s argument is that he has a too high ground ball percentage (60%), too high of a K rate (18.7%) and projects to have no power (a sub .100 ISO).

    Before I kill his argument, I will acknowledge that a 60% ground ball rate is way too high. Brendan Rodgers led MLB in ground ball rate last year at 56%. He used a .338 BABIP to end the season with a .314 OB% and .721 OPS. Not great but not horrific. That OB% and OPS was basically Bryson Stott’s batting line last year too. So I will agree that a 60% ground ball rate is simply too high. Fair point. But to write him off completely and ignore his improvement from last year or the possibility that a 20yo elite athlete can improve is silly. So let’s just stipulate that he needs to continue to improve the GB% and really get it to around 50%. That said, he did have a 19.7% line drive rate in AA as a 20yo. MLB league average for LD% is 21% and batting average on line drives is .685. Again, ignoring that in your analysis is incomplete at best. In Eric’s defense, he has to rip through thousands of prospects to write up all MLB teams. But when you are counter to industry on a guy you should dig in more.

    So who is an offensive comp for Crawford? Last year Brice Turang had a 52.5% GB%, sub .100 ISO (0.095) and a 17% K rate and he batted .254 with a .316 OB%. What made Brice an offensive weapon was his 50 steals. So that’s the offensive comp for Crawford. He needs to reduce his GB% but with his ability to steal bags when he gets on base he can be an offensive weapon. Turang was primarily a leadoff hitter for Milwaukee last season. Frankly, Eric ignored my biggest concern with Crawford which is his relatively low walk rate of 6.1% in AA. Ideally he would be a 10%+ walk guy.

    Now, on his defensive criticism, really that is the first time that I have heard anything negative about Crawford’s defense. On the contrary, I have been led to believe that with his speed he is an elite defender. MLB has him as a 60 defense with a 55 arm. Here is what Keith Law said about his defense last season, “tremendous foot speed that translates into at least 70 range in centerfield.” Even if Eric is right that he gets bad reads, that certainly can improve as a 20yo. And he has the raw athleticism to overcome most missed reads. Maybe he isn’t Rojas level defender but a 40 grade from Eric seems silly.

    My take, Crawford is an elite athlete who competed very well as a 20yo in AA. He is not a finished product. But I certainly see a productive MLB player. Is he a future superstar? Honestly, that is tbd. He has the raw tools to be one. For what it’s worth, Keith Law is really high on him. So we will see. But dropping him below Jean Cabrera or Mercado seems silly to me.

    Like

    1. As many find warts in Crawford’s game …reminds me how Juan Soto graded out 10 years ago after Nats signed him as a 16 year old…..Hit: 55 Power: 50 Run: 40 Arm: 50 Field: 50 Overall: 45.

      Then the grading for 18 year old Crawford in 2022…..Hit: 55 Power: 40 Run: 70 Arm: 55 Field: 60 Overall: 55.

      Really, all grading should be taken with a grain of salt.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Okay, but here’s the difference. By the time Soto was Crawford’s age he was an established major league star. Yes, you have to take grading with a grain of salt – agree completely – but that’s as far as the analogy goes.

        Like

  46. MLB Pipeline has released their top 100 prospects. The Phillies have:

    8. Painter

    27. Miller

    64. Crawford

    93. Tait

    Starlyn Caba slotted in at 81 for the Marlins. Note that the top 30 lists for teams for 2025 have not been updated yet.

    Liked by 1 person

  47. I look for improvements in young players from year to year, and even from beginning of season to end, in addition to their possible ceilings. They all have high risk because none of them are ready to play in the majors yet (with the exception of a small few – Painter hopefully is on this list). As for Crawford, I’ve seen significant improvement and supposedly he is very aware of what he needs to continue to work on. Time will tell. As for Miller, he’s also a work in progress. He succeeded, then he struggled, and then he got his head above water. He supposedly will develop lots of power but he hasn’t shown much yet. We’ll see.
    I’ve also always believed in the eye test. Some guys you watch and you just see something different than the other players. Crawford and Miller both check that box.
    Spring training starts in a month. Until then,

    Let’s Go Birds!

    Like

  48. I look for improvements in young players from year to year, and even from beginning of season to end, in addition to their possible ceilings. They all have high risk because none of them are ready to play in the majors yet (with the exception of a small few – Painter hopefully is on this list). As for Crawford, I’ve seen significant improvement and supposedly he is very aware of what he needs to continue to work on. Time will tell. As for Miller, he’s also a work in progress. He succeeded, then he struggled, and then he got his head above water. He supposedly will develop lots of power but he hasn’t shown much yet. We’ll see.
    I’ve also always believed in the eye test. Some guys you watch and you just see something different than the other players. Crawford and Miller both check that box.
    Spring training starts in a month. Until then,

    Let’s Go Birds!

    Like

  49. Looks like the Dodgers’ signing of Roki Sasaki has pushed some owners to the limit. Wonder what the future will hold come the next CBA.

    ” COTS’ projects the Dodgers for a luxury tax payroll around $375MM. The Phillies have the second-highest layout at roughly $308MM. The Yankees are the only other team above $300MM by that estimate. The gap between the Dodgers and the 30th-ranked Marlins is almost $300MM. Jeff Passan writes that the payroll disparity (plus the $765MM guarantee which Juan Soto secured from the Mets) has led to a “rekindling” of talks amongst owners who hope for the implementation of a salary cap. New Orioles owner David Rubenstein, who purchased the franchise from the Angelos family last spring, is among those in support….”

    A salary cap will entail a battle between MLB and the MLBPA…..may incur a strike once again or maybe a lock-out.

    Like

    1. There will definitely be a work stoppage. The baseball system is broken. It’s dominated by owners in big markets with deep pockets. The money being thrown around is so crazy that even the Red Sox, who used to spend like a big market team, don’t want to do that anymore. If you’re a team like the Marlins or Pirates, is spending an extra $50M per year going to make a difference? Why do that when you can easily keep costs down and receive revenue sharing money?

      Like

      1. Yep…the system does seem to be broke. If winning a World Series is the ultimate goal…some small market teams may never get there, but the franchise will stay financially afloat with revenue sharing entitlements.

        Like

        1. NCAA going the same path with revenue sharing. Apparently, schools are to get around $20M to divvy up in some form plus who knows how the NIL thing plays out. It is out of control as well.

          Like

      2. Baseball’s entire financial system and competitive balance mechanisms are broken. They keep trying to cobble together half solutions, but it never works. As a result, about half the teams in MLB have almost no shot of competing for more than a year or two at a time – they just can’t afford it. Specifically what doesn’t work:

        1. Massive differential in spending capabilities between the “haves” and the “have nots” due to lack of a revenue sharing, high cap and weird salary tax rules.
        2. Weird system for signing prospects outside of the U.S. including the bizarre Japanese posting system.
        3. Weird comp picks for “small market” teams like the Cardinals – yeah, right. I get the idea, which isn’t that bad, but it is not applied correct.
        4. Strange cap for paying players chosen in the top 10 rounds of the draft.
        5. Inability to trade draft picks. This is so stupid. Every other sport allows this. And it would permit teams to get better faster and would increase interest in the draft ten fold. Every single fan wants this. And yet baseball is entrenched and refuses to budge. So stupid.

        I think there’s going to be a strike or a threatened work stoppage but ultimately, I think MLB will win for a million reasons not the least of which is that MLB has adopted the NFL strategy of selling and providing the best benefits to the average player – give them the best package of money and benefits and they will approve the deal over the objections of the richer players and powerful agents.

        Liked by 1 person

    2. Romus. You are probably going down the right track. Seems something has to take place. Strike and/or lockout. Memories of 72 or 73. I have determined it was February of 72 for my only visit to Carpenter Complex at the time. Gates were chained.

      Like

    3. Not sure why it was the Sasaki deal that put them over the edge for a salary cap LOL. Wasn’t it capped what they could pay him?

      I think more than salary the bigger problem is that non-domestic players basically get complete FA.

      If I’m the owners I mandate international drafts before I mandate salary cap but make salary cap the leverage telling them (the MLBPA) they are getting one or the other.

      Like

  50. I’ve read Matt Winkelman’s descriptions of prospects every year and, quite frankly, what he does is astonishing and perhaps at the highest level I’ve ever seen by any non-scout and better than guys like Keith Law. His evaluations tend to be spot on. So even when I hope he’s going to be wrong when he pans a prospect, more often than not, he’s correct.

    What amazes me is where he gets all of his information – it’s like he’s sitting around in his spare time watching prospect tape. I wonder if he watches the saved game feeds from milb.com.

    Like

    1. Think Matt used to write for the courier post or other local newspapers and is a longtime fan, and yes very well versed and written. I enjoy more than Law too but Matt isn’t tasked with doing the whole MLB as is Keith’s job. Keith sure was ready to fire away in the comments section of Athletic following the list posting though and always responds to his articles

      Like

  51. I’m worried about Crawford, but not as depressing as reading about Dante Nori, damn he sound like Ben Revere T_T

    I’m thinking shouldn’t we have drafted somebody else in the 1st round?

    Like

    1. Yeah Dante’s advanced age vs younger HS competition was a caution, maybe even a red flag for many clubs. He does have all the other physical traits that are viewed as positive……now if he can hit the breaking pitch…that would come in handy.

      Liked by 1 person

  53. Having seen Miller play I don’t think he stays at SS. But that doesn’t worry me in the least…

    If the hit tool turns out to be real there are plenty of places on the diamond he can potentially play.

    Like

    2. I saw him play a few times at Lakewood. I think that he can stick at SS. Not going to be an elite SS, but let’s put it this way, I think that he is a better defensive SS than Bohm is a 3B.

      Also hard to be much worse defensively at SS than Trea has been the past 2 years.

      Liked by 1 person

          1. Unless the Phillies decide to trade Crawford in the next year or two….I think they want Crawford to be out. The two areas I think he can do well at are 2B and maybe the corner OF positions. I think at 3B he may have a negative DRS. And I think he will need to make some type of decisions after this season and lets hope his defense is not suspect there.

            Like

  54. Phantasy Camp is over. I returned to the Complex for continued workouts at High Performance Camp. Watched a side by Romano with Marchan. Also saw a couple infield groups take ground balls. Of note – Saltiban at 2B, Miller at SS, Kemp at 3B, Anthony at 1B, Escobar and Day at 2B, Villavicencio and DeMartini at SS, Rincon at 3B.

    I finally have an idea of who’s attending. Ten infielders, the nine listed above plus Beltran. Nine outfielders – Nori, Walton, Mendez, Rincones, Spikerman, Dragoo, Mathison, Pineda, Burkholder. Nine catchers – Dissin, Ricketts, Rosario, Tait, Shojinaga, Ferrebus, Hettiger, Davis, Mata.

    And a bunch of pitchers – Luis Avila, Kyler Carmack, Ethan Chenault, Aaron Combs, Ryan Degges, Ryan Dromboski, Jake Eddington, Luke Gabrysh, Tristan Garnett, Mavis Graves, Daniel Harper, Titan Hayes, Camron Hill, Angel Liranzo, Gunner Mayer, Tommy McCollum, Alex McFarlane, Griff McGarry, Wesley Moore, Marcus Morgan, Micah Ottenbreit. Andrew Painter, Danyony Pulido, Erik Ritchie, Luke Russo, Enrique Segura, Casey Steward, Eli Trop, Zack Tukis, AJ Wilson, Erubiel Armenta, Kevin Warunek, McGowan

    There are still a handful of guys I can’t identify yet. Early reports and rehabbers have gotten mixed in with the HP players.

    Estanista, Campbell, Ash, and Stashak arrived today.

    Major leaguers include Romano, Marchan, Nola, Bohm, JT, Johnson, Strahm, Abel, Kerkering.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Listing Abel in with the Major leaguers eh? was looking for him and was like, is he not there in FL.. then saw him under the other listing haha

      Like

        1. I agree and it might even be something like a move to the BP that could cause him to blossom. Pitchers are weird like that – he has a lot of ability – it’s just a matter of putting it all together.

          Like

    2. That’s as fit as I’ve ever seen him. He has probably lost a good 75 pounds since he was at his peak weight with the Rays. I’ll keep rooting for him, the players all seem to love the guy.

      Like

  56. Austin Hayes to the Reds for $5M. Kike Hernandez still waiting for the Dodgers’ call. If it doesn’t come, I’m sure the Phils have checked in with him.

    Like

  57. Here is my question to Keith Law in his Q&A about his prospect ranking

    Andrew R.

    · 55m ago

    I have seen several reports say Justin Crawford takes bad routes to the ball and makes up for mistakes through his pure speed. Your report puts him at a 70-grade with the glove. I’m just wondering if you see something the others are missing? I am glad to see you are very bullish on Aiden Miller. Thanks Keith

    Like
    More
    Keith Law

    Keith Law

    · 35m ago

    @Andrew R. I do not agree with that on Crawford’s routes at all. I’ve had multiple scouts say he’s an 80 defender in center. I’m not quite there yet.

    Liked by 1 person

      1. What separates great CFs from good or average CFs is their split second reads of balls off the bat. Whether you want to call them reads or routes is your business LOL

        I love JC and I think he is near big league ready but I witnessed some pretty bad reads on balls over his head. He could mitigate this by playing a little deeper because he is so fast and so athletic he’ll be able to close on balls in front of him.

        Like

        1. Bad reads out in the OF is a killer regardless of athleticism/postitioning imo…. long time LF/RF lower level game sitter…. (for the $ i enjoy the lower level OF most as it gives me the sense of the game coming at me/like i’m playing albeit from 440 and slightly elevated)… anywho.. the outfield has been a cast off of bad “reads” for a long time… phew boy Dom Brown was atrocious not to mention countless others over the years… i long for Pat B and his slow feet.. at least you knew what you were going to get every fly ball lol…

          i hope he can get a better eye for reads off the bat if that is his knock.. don’t really anticipate that kind of skill “developing” when the EV’s increase not decrease in skill level advancement… i’ll tell ya this much.. the new LED bulbs or whatever that all the parks use is way different in seeing a ball vs the old incandescent bulbs… feels like being in a science experiment down at the park now at night.. i don’t like the lights at all but it’s the way of the world… real artifical.. probably great for facial recognition software but gives me a headace.. anyways, maybe the “brighter” lights amplify his game.. never know with some competitors.. sometimes just have to put them out on stage and see them perform

          Like

      1. I agree. Reading people say he doesn’t take good routes really had me down on him, thinking maybe we missed an opportunity to trade him at peak value. But after Law’s assessment, I’m back to being very high on him.

        Like

        1. Don’t be down Andrew. He’s not Rojas but he’s also not Marsh. He’s solid enough defensively and he’s going to be on base at a much higher clip than either of them.

          Like

  58. Last year our 8th reliever spot was a player with options who could be replaced and rotated in and out.

    This year that isn’t going to happen. As of right now, Walker is the 8th spot reliever. They need to replace him or cut him. I understand the money is prohibited but they missed out on offensive upgrades and other teams have gotten better.

    Dodgera may have to jettison Brasier to add Yates. That would be a great alternative.

    Like

    1. I think the Phils will give Walker a shot to earn a spot on the roster out of respect for him as a veteran but that, like Whit Merrifield, they will cut him if he doesn’t justify his spot on the roster. If there’s no role he can fill, I don’t expect him to break camp with the team.

      It’s easy to see the Phils add a reliever to the competition, particularly a free agent they can sign to a one year deal.

      Barring a trade, I think the Phils have now the position players they’ll need for the roster. If needed, they could go big on a rental bat at the trade deadline. It wouldn’t constrain their ability to do a substantial budget re-shuffle vis the luxury tax next off-season.

      Like

      1. Releasing Walker means a big $$$$$ bite against the threshold.

        Oh Dave Dombrowski …he painted himself into a corner with that contract.

        If some team experiences many starter injuries in the spring training period…maybe he can move him and eat a portion of the contract and save a bit on the other portion.

        Like

        1. Yeah, of course, because who doesn’t want a guy with a 7.10 era in their starting rotation?

          Seriously, it was an awful contract, but Walker is really going to have to show a lot for anyone to take that contract, even at a reduced rate. More likely, he will be released and the new team will pay him the MLB minimum – assuming there is a new team, which definitely may not happen.

          Like

        2. Releasing him vs. keeping him has no bearing on their tax threshold. He’s sunk cost.

          I agree he will pitch in ST with a hope that he shows some additional velocity that will make him maybe a potential trade candidate. They will still eat most of the remainder of his contract either way but maybe can save a couple of million.

          I really don’t understand the constant complaint that his contract is somehow a disaster for the team and has painted them into some corner. If he was painted into a corner, they wouldn’t have make the deal to get Luzardo and pay him $6+ milion.

          It’s a bad deal but big market teams eat bad contracts all the time.

          Like

          1. It’s a bad deal and it helps limit their options with their tax threshold, but whatever. They have to keep moving on and they are. They are not relying on this guy AT ALL.

            Like

  59. Call me a bad fan, but I strongly disagree with some of the Hall of Fame selections. As a baseball fan, I followed Billy Wagner’s entire career and he does not deserve to be in the Hall of Fame. I love the Phillies and our 2008 heroes but Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley are not Hall of Fame caliber players. Carlos Beltran??!! Absolutely not! I’m tired of greatness being watered down. I love Jimmy and Chase and I’d love to someday shake their hands and thank them for what they accomplished as Phillies, but not Hall of Famers.

    Like

    1. Daniel, I’m in a small minority that agrees with you. I think it should be the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Excellence. To me, the standard, admittedly 100 percent subjective, is who will fans know and talk about generations from now. Unfortunately in a commercial world we’ve got to elect people every year to promote the game, and that invites watering down the standards.

      Like

      1. Guys – if your position is that the HOF should be limited to only to players that are like in the top 20-30 position players or pitchers of all time, I get that, and while I don’t totally agree with that, there is a point to that.

        However, if your position is that the standards for the HOF have been substantially diminished (putting aside relief pitchers, who are in their own sort of weird category), you are just dead wrong. For decades and decades the Hall has been admitting players who are well below the very elite of the sport and a guy like Carlos Beltran clearly satisfies those well-established standards as does Chase Utley (Jimmy Rollins, generally, does not). Here’s an example. Joe Medwick was inducted into the HOF almost 50 years ago – Beltran had a clearly better career than Medwick. And he’s just an example, there are plenty of other HOFers who were not as good as Beltran. The issue with Beltran is whether the cheating scandal impairs his candidacy, but not whether he did enough. He definitely did – and 70 WAR and 439 home runs pretty much cement that.

        I will say relievers are harder – they produce way less value so it’s hard to argue whether or not they should be in the Hall. And even among relievers, was Billy Wagner that great? Eh, maybe. But I wouldn’t have lost sleep if he didn’t make it.

        Like

        1. Catch, your point is understood. Also, having given my Hall of Fame Not Excellence speech, I also understand we have to deal with the criteria being used. On that basis, I vote IN for Utley and am willing to be persuaded on Rollins.

          Like

  60. Since many of you are giving thoughts on HOF selection or not. I have a question. I am not saying one set of criteria is correct and one is wrong. I do not know. I have always wondered why if a player has had a HOF career based on whatever requirement you have that it takes some 8, 9 or 10 years to get in? I know the voters get 10 votes on ballot but really are there ever 10 guys for one year. Some are speaking about Chase and Jimmy why did it take Scott Rolen so long? Not even sure if most here feel he should be in. I do agree that a relief guy is really difficult for the amount of time they are actually on the field in a game. My point is why is a guy a HOF in year 10 let’s say but not in year 1 or 2?

    Like

    1. Generally speaking it makes no sense. Sometimes it takes a while for the voters to learn about and appreciate a player, but overall, it makes zero sense and shows how uncertain and impressionable the baseball writers are, and not in a good way.

      Like

      1. Has never made any sense to me either. Just a guess on my part but many of these guys selecting are doing it for years and years. One would think the career and I believe the 5 years wait for being eligible would give them ample time to figure it out. Has just always baffled me a guy becomes a HOF in year 8 instead of year 1. Oh well.

        Like

        1. Some guys may get lucky, and the first time on the ballot, in going against an average class. And they end up getting a large percentage of votes…since it seems baseball has never had a year where no player was selected into the HoF in the last 18 years…..2007 was the last year no one was selected…not good PR for the game.. Back in the 40s, (WWII years) and a few year in the late 50s-early 60s, it was common not to have anyone selected in any particular year.

          Like

    2. File this in the category – ‘Little People Given Power’. It’s basically the Media’s BS to managing the HoF (see Phil Rizutto IN, Curt Schilling OUT).

      If you have the credentials to enter the Hall in Year 10, you had the same credentials in Year 1.

      Like

  61. HOF voting does various things including signal sending. A unanimous vote sends a signal as does denying someone like Ichiro a unanimous vote. He invidiously is being compared to, not others on the ballot,but the first immortals selected to the HOF. In the same way, a first ballot selection sends a signal and offers an endorsement that some voters don’t want to provide because a first ballot selection puts a player in the pantheon with others like Ruth, Cobb, Wagner, Johnson and Mathewson.

    Like

    1. I think you’re right on why many voters wait on a player, but it’s still so silly – I mean, Chase Utley won’t be playing any more games over the next 5 years. He’s either good enough or he’s not.

      Like

  62. Nice posts guys. I agree on the idea that Chase or whoever stays on the ballot improves in the next 5 to 8 years. My thought is you are or are not a HOF player. Not sure that it may take you up to 9 years to prove that when you are retired now by at least 10 to 14 years. Goofy.

    Like

  63. I agree that a player voted into the HOF in any subsequent year should have been voted into the HOF in his first year of eligibility. It makes no sense to me that a player gets incrementality more votes each year he is on the ballot. If he’s Hall worthy in year seven (for instance) then he should have been Hall worthy in year one of his eligibility.

    I think voters who take the position that no player should be voted into the HOF on the first ballot or have a 100% of the vote should lose their right to vote.

    Here’s a solution.

    Lift the ten-player limit that restricts the number of players a voter can vote for. If 15 players become eligible, the writers can vote for all 15 if they so choose.

    Allow a player to be on the ballot only for his first year of eligibility. This forces voters to seriously consider players as they become eligible but limits the number of players they have to “research” each year since players are eligible in a one-and-done scenario. This also removes politicking by voters for their personal favorites each year of a ten-year eligibility period.

    The first year this would be enacted, all eligible players from the last HOF ballot would be eligible plus the incoming class but if not elected they would not be on future ballots. Ballots in succeeding years would contain only the next class of eligibles.

    This would leave the committee path for players who don’t receive enough votes. Personally, I disagree with this alternative. Recently, an owner was on one of the committees and managed to get one of his former players selected. As I recall it was a questionable selection. It annoyed me because it prevented Dick Allen from being selected while he was still alive.

    Oh, well. I said my piece.

    Like

  64. I was at the Complex today. Aidan Miller once again took ground balls only at shortstop. I will continue to watch this and the day he takes groundballs at second or third, I’ll let you all know. I did speak to him as he left the field. Based on his reaction to my asking about 3B, we believe his preference is SS. He hasn’t played 3B since his junior year at HS. He also pitched in HS, but not since his junior year. I asked about his velocity, he said 97. I asked if the Phillies knew, he said he didn’t think so.

    Miller, Pinella, Kemp, and Rincones took optional BP outside on Roberts. Four big guys who hit a lot of balls hard. About half-a-dozen cleared the fence.

    Liked by 2 people

    4. While I might be surprised if Aidan stays at SS long term I wouldn’t hate it :).

      Also don’t see any reason this far into his tenure to move him off the position.

      Not always crazy about comps but JJ Hardy comes to mind for Aidan. JJ was not a flashy SS but he had great instincts for the position.

      Like

  66. Chace is sounding like a steal. 98mph, 3-4 pitches. He’s about to make a big jump on the top 30 list. With this SR, I can’t see him cracking it, unless Ranger is not resigned. He could be a BP arm, or he’s trade bait. That’s not a bad scenario either way. DD lost the initial Soto trade, and now has a chance to win flip trade of Soto

    Like

    1. Maybe he is why they felt comfortable leaving Castellano unprotected…

      But then I would not have been uncomfortable leaving Tyler Philips off the 40 man or even better just DFA Walker. The cost is sunk anyway and I’d be willing to bet Castellano could give you better results in a pinch than Walker…

      Like

      1. I think the decision was between Castellano and Cabrera. And they felt that Castellano was less likely to be retained on a major league roster and thus more likely to be returned.

        Like

    2. It’s hard to express just how great of a trade this was, especially after the Phillies were forced to part with George Klassen’s A+ arm in another trade. Soto was largely a useless player for the Phillies. A guy who throws the ball in the high 90s, yet was somehow so useless that a team who desperately needed high leverage relievers agreed to part with him during a pennant race. Soto for Johnson probably would have been a fair trade (Johnson had a bad debut, but so do a lot of guys – he has genuine solid 4th starter potential), but to get Chace as well was phenomenal. This was a classic combination of great scouting and preying on another desperate team in the middle of a pennant race. These low on the radar moves are where DD and his team do their best work.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Agreed. Chace is plus + trade for DD. Helps to minimize the klaussen trade. That one hurt a bit, but it’s the same deal. Where is he going pitch in this rotation. It was Worth the trade risk at the deadline. pretty nice to have such a nice wildcard in the system. So Can DD flip Chace for a player bettter than Veirling? Or can Chace impact the bullpen better than Veirling could. A nice story line to watch this year

        At this point, the Philadelphia Angels should be fun to follow for many of us. (Moniak, O’hoppe, Klaussen, Aldegheri, Kingery, Crouse…. and Trout of course 🙂 Techniclly D’Auard as well (spelling on a few of those names)

        Liked by 1 person

        2. I don’t see why they need to trade him at all. Pitchers have high failure and injury rates and Ranger will likely not be here past 2025 and who knows with Luzardo. I say let’s keep him around for a while to do see what he can do.

          Like

      1. Im excited for McGriffy this year. He could emerge as a BP arm. He reminds me somewhat of Hoffman arch. Hopefully it’s with the Phillies.

        Like

        1. Well, if he does, he’s going to have to take a huge leap forward – he has regressed seriously over the last few years, much as Abel has.

          Like

          1. Catch -agreed, but I would think at this point he has some clarity on his road to the show. If it’s going to be on the Phillies, it’s almost certainly through the bullpen. Hes not cracking the rotation.

            Like

            1. No doubt. His only chance now is in the bullpen, but even that is a very remote chance. He doesn’t have good command and his velocity has been way down. But I guess you never know.

              Like

    1. I don’t care that he’s playing SS now, I completely view Aidan Miller as Alec Bohm’s ultimate successor. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t start playing some third base this year.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. I wouldn’t rule out 2B for miller. I can see Stott taking back the SS spot, with musical chairs between Turner,Bohm, and Kemp for 3rd & LF/RF

        Liked by 1 person

        1. Right now, apparently they will let Trea make any decision on the shortstop position. But if embarrasses himself out there this season…he may move himself to another position. He has a lot of pride I would assume and not want to hurt the team.

          Liked by 1 person

            1. If Trea moves off SS, it will happen in the offseason where he he will have time to prepare for it. That means for better or for worse, he’s spending the majority of 2025 at SS.

              Like

          2. My guess is that Turner remains at SS until it becomes truly painful. I’m thinking another 3 years or so. That’s not what I want, but it is what I think is going to happen.

            Man was that contract wayyyyyyyyyy too long. DD sure knows how to bury a team in long term contracts. My goodness!

            Like

            1. Yeah…….he really painted himself into another corner with these very generous/lengthy contracts….Walkers, Casty, Turner and probably soon a mod to Harper’s contract. He will be in his late 70s and retired by the time Turner and Harper are done.

              Like

            2. I’m okay with Harper’s contract – in fact, it’s an awesome contract that will end right when it should. It’s also NOT a DD contract, nor was the first Wheeler contract.

              I actually think the Nola contract will workout fine and the Realmuto contract will prove to be appropriate. The Schwarber contract was also a good contract. But then there are the contracts that are not so good, and there are several of those.

              Like

            3. Harper’s contract could or may be modified according to Middleton…I would not mind a lengthy yearly monetary deferment after a specified active end date. Other teams are doing it…..or extending it maybe thru his age 41 season in 2034 with no future deferments.

              Like

    2. Painter,Miller, Crawford, Tait… I’m assuming his 4 with Chace & Kemp his 5th & 6th

      be nice to see how much klaussen & Caba would have bumped the system ranking. Still, amazing to finally see after all this time.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Caba yes, but I think the industry still views Klassen as a bit of a lottery ticket. I would also doubt that, as much as we like Kemp, that Law views him as a top prospect given his age and lack of pedigree – he must mean someone else.

        Like

  68. Lead the league in stolen bases

    Justin Crawford, CF, Philadelphia Phillies (113)

    Yep, the son of Carl Crawford is really fast and really good at stealing bases. His scouting report is a little tricky because he has some raw power but doesn’t lift the ball and has incredible bat-to-ball ability, but he chases out of the zone far too much. While his plus-plus running ability has led to stolen bases, he is just OK defensively in center field. His baserunning is more refined, stealing 99 bases in his pro career, good for an 83% rate of success.

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/43599024/top-100-mlb-prospects-2025-kiley-mcdaniel-101-200-rankings-superlatives

    Liked by 1 person

      1. I am very excited about seeing what Eduardo Tait does this year and, as much as Caba has a lot of potential, I’m glad they traded him and not Tait. It’s hard to believe but after having a very promising debut in low, full-season A ball (Clearwater), Tait is going INTO his age 18 season. Players often improve massively between their age 17 and 19 seasons, so we could see another huge jump from Tait. Tait is one of the few players in the system who truly has superstar potential, so it’s very exciting.

        As for the catchers, if Marchan is healthy (and it’s always a huge IF), they are doing the organization no favors if they keep Stubbs over Marchan as the backup. Marchan is one of our most underrated prospects. He’s outstanding behind the plate and is a very underrated hitter. I think he could very well become a first division regular and at the very least could provide a bridge between Realmuto and our next star catcher. This guy can really play. If healthy, he needs to be the back-up catcher this year.

        Liked by 1 person

    2. Cannot grasp McDaniel’s eval on Crawford’s defense. The discrepancy between a few scouts and the majority of scouts is too much of a gap….some have him between 70 and 80…..and assume McDaniel and a few others, probably at 50 or 55.

      Like

      1. I think a lot of these national guys see a player for 1-2 games a season. KLaw spends a lot of time talking with scouts. But we will see pretty soon.

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        1. its almost impossible to have elite speed… and be a horrible outfielder … the speed would make up for bad jumps & reads. It would be like saying …

          Crawford gets a bad jump on the ball, then uses his elite speed to make up ground… then turns into Kyle Schwarber as the ball gets 3 ft from him. (Sorry Kyle, love your hitting though!)

          It doesn’t make sense.

          Like

  69. Good Morning Jim, I tried to send you an email but it didn’t go through. is there a current email address to send to you. Thank you.

    Like

  70. As a whole our OF of Castellanos, Marsh, Rojas and Kepler is a pretty dim light on an otherwise solid team.

    I know there is a lot of time and baseball between now and the trade deadline but I can’t help but wonder what it looks like then.

    I’m not seeing any of those players with an OPS of 800+ and its really hard to win in the MLB without more thump in your corners.

    Right handed thump specifically is a glaring whole in the LU.

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    1. I agree with all of this. I just look at the Phillies and I look at the Dodgers and see a huge gaping chasm between the two teams. The only way they make up the difference is through luck or the acquisition/development of better players – right-handed hitting outfielders in particular. And please stop giving me the “I believe in the numbers on the back of bubble gum cards” speech for guys like Castellanos and Turner – how has that gone the last few years?

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      1. the Dodgers … are hard to compare against. Their team is stacked,double stacked and they know it too. Hopefully their team chemistry & some untimely injuries bring them back to earth.

        the Phillies are within striking distance. I will say it again, but it’s not fair to put the pressure on the kid … but Otto Kemp seems like he’s going be this year’s Cinderella story. I know the AFL is not generally stocked with top tier pitchers but… with a little bit of projection , … kemp could be the internal option to boost for the OF

        LF -Kemp/Kepler, CF Marsh/Kepler, RF – Castellanos with Rojas being the late game defensive replacement … unless he makes Marsh expendable …

        It’s an intriguing storyline as this team is gonna look pretty different this time next year, in likely a big way

        between turner,Bohm,Stott, miller, Crawford, kemp, marsh … & the catcher position … a shake is coming. Stating the obvious, but a lot of battles to be won before then.

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        1. You can’t fault the Dodgers for going all out to repeat, but their spending has really sparked the other owners’ anger. I mean, when Hal Steinbrenner complains about it, then you know a tipping point has been reached.

          The MLBPA is a joke. Sure, seeing Juan Soto get $765M is great but when Jack Flaherty has to settle for 2/35 and Bregman, Alonso, Pivetta are still available is very telling. Note that Bregman and Alonso are Boras clients.

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          1. I view situations like that as an opportunity to take advantage of market inefficiencies. The Tigers are getting Flaherty for the cost of a Taijuan Walker. Let that one sink in a little bit.

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      2. The Dodgers are spending us right into a work stoppage in 2026. Small market teams will want so much more from teams like the Dodgers (and us, too), that they will demand more competitive balance and the only way the owners will agree is by wanting a salary cap.

        We are screwed.

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        1. Nah – we’re not screwed. The Florida Marlins are screwed. The Cincinnati Reds are screwed. The Pittsburgh Pirates are screwed.

          But you know what they say in Japan, the nail that sticks out gets hammered down. The Phillies are fine with the league having “haves” and “have not” but what I am sure they and other teams are not okay with is having 1 team so control the situation that so they are always, by far, the best team and no other teams can really compete (truth be told, the Mets and Yankees could compete if they wanted to). If the Dodgers keep this up, the other teams will come for them and this nonsense will end. The owners need to end it, not the MLBPA.

          To be clear the owners learned the NFL secret sauce with players unions. Appeal to the average player, win the vote and marginalize the richest players. I don’t see a work stoppage coming at all.

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          1. The Phillies are a “have” team so it’s probably in their best interest to stay status quo.

            But MLB is losing viewers to other sports. If you’re a fan of a small market team, you know that you have no shot even before ST starts. Yes, there will be times when you get a Paul Skenes and he generates excitement, but those times are usually once a decade, if that.

            For the betterment of baseball, there absolutely needs to be a cap. When the Dodgers have money growing out of trees and the Marlins are penny pinching like crazy, the disparity in team salaries have never been greater. Something needs to be done and if there has to be a work stoppage, so be it.

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            1. I am telling you, it is highly, highly unlikely that there will be a work stoppage. This isn’t a player versus the owners type of thing, it’s an owners versus the owners thing. They need to work this out amongst themselves.

              The big time agents tried to get the union to strike last time, MLB pitched a very good package to average players and they approved the deal over the screams and hollers of agents like Scott Boras who thought it limited the upside of the game’s elite players. The same thing happened in the NFL. So long as each player only has one vote (and it’s not dollar-weighted), MLB will game the system and appeal to the average player.

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            2. May need two leagues….large market team league and a small market team league, with each having their own playoff to the WS,

              …..WS…large team vs small team….anything can happen then.

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            3. RELEGATION!!!!

              Promote the Nashville AAA team to the big leagues and send Oakland/Las Vegas to AAA.

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          2. Agree…….appeal to the average player. With 1200 in the union at one time (40×30)…there are a good number of what yuo refer to as average players. That is why MLBPA tries to up the basic salary for the entry level players as high as they can get it before they hit free agency….and along the way arbitration years are a carrot for them also.

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        2. I think I read that the Dodgers Tax Bill is $138 mil whereas the Phillies is just shy of $40 million. I mean, let that sink in for a bit. It’s in some cases nearly double that of some teams entire payroll.

          I have to believe somehow that comes back to bite the Dodgers hard in the next couple of seasons.

          Yes they’ve collected a lot of really good players but also a lot of players that get hurt quite a bit and are likely to continue doing so on the other side of 30.

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          2. Living here in SoCal, all I’m told by Dodger fans – ‘don’t penalize us, everyone can do it…’

            Unfortunately that’s not true – and baseball knows it.

            Feel sorry for teams not named Phils, Mets, Yankees, cause they really have no chance.

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  71. On top of the luxury tax, perhaps baseball should penalize the high spenders by taking away draft picks. Say for every level of the tax scale that a team goes beyond, that team loses draft picks. And I mean a bunch of draft picks. Come on, Romus, give us some kind of formula.

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    1. LOL…….I think they already lose draft picks…2nd rounders and below for signing QOed players….maybe first round picks will get the message across for the extreme spenders.

      Japanese free agent players, 23 and older, seem to be the most desirable and skilled…..maybe a team can have only one Japanese player on their 26 man roster.. Other countries limit foreign players, why can’t the US!

      Kind of like a tariff on Japanese players per team. The thing to do these days.

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