Baseball America’s 2025 Pre-Season Phillies Top 10 List

Prospect Rankings

Baseball America released their Phillies Top 10 List. You can find it here.  I was able to view on my cell phone earlier today.  I expect that loophole might be closed by now.  BA offers a lot of behind the paywall write ups on prospects.

Their Top Ten List is:

  1. Painter
  2. Miller
  3. Caba
  4. Tait
  5. Crawford
  6. Chace
  7. Johnson
  8. Burkholder
  9. Rincones
  10. Nori

No surprise that Painter and Miller top the list.  I find Crawford behind Caba and Tait surprising.  Chace and Johnson are the only pitchers on the list other than Painter, and both were acquired at the deadline.  Top picks Burkholder and Nori slip into the top ten in the reverse order of their selection.  And Rincones maintains a position in the top ten.

BA offers opinions on specific skills.

  • Hitter for Average – Crawford
  • Power – Tait
  • Plate Discipline – Caba
  • Baserunning – Boyd
  • Athlete – MacFarlane
  • Defensive Catcher – Dissin
  • Defensive Infielder – Caba
  • Infield Arm – Rincon
  • Defensive Outfielder – Boyd
  • Outfield Arm – Heredia
  • FB – Painter
  • CB – Johnson
  • SL – Chace
  • CH – Cabrera
  • Control – Cabrera

Burkholder was injured early after he was activated.  I would expect him to overtake Tait in the power category based on what I saw this fall at the Complex.

BA also projects a 2028 lineup barring trades, etc.

  • C Tait
  • 1B Harper
  • 2B Turner
  • 3B Miller
  • SS Caba
  • LF Crawford
  • CF Rojas
  • RF Burkholder
  • DH Bohm
  • #1 Nola
  • #2 Painter
  • #3 Sanchez
  • #4 Suarez
  • #5 Chace
  • CL Kerkering

Turner at 2B?  Let’s do it sooner than 2028.  Rojas still in CF might raise a few eyebrows.  As well as Nola as the #1 starter.

Now, please discuss.

69 thoughts on “Baseball America’s 2025 Pre-Season Phillies Top 10 List”

    1. We all know that Abel had a poor season, but his story is not written yet. He has enough talent to turn it around. Abel will get as many innings as he can handle in AAA in 2025.

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  2. IMO, I’d put Saltiban above both Nori and Burkeholder at this point….perhaps even a healthy Escobar also. They- Nori-Burkeholder- would slot somewhere into my 11 thru 15 range.

    Dissin as the best defensive catcher in the farm system is a nice revelation. and Boyd over Crawford as a the best defensive outfielder…..that may be a toss-up.

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  3. It’s curious that Crawford is ranked 5th considering that he already played 40 games at AA at age 20. He has a career minor league OPS of .813. I guess that analysts are still wary about Crawford’s power (12 career HRs in 3 seasons).

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    1. MLB.com just had a little praise for Crawford, talking about how Crawford “tripled” his HR totals… 9 hrs isn’t going to get anyone excited … but I’ll take the bullish approach on him vs the bear. Will see how he does this season. His OBP & Slugging % went down slightly with roughly 100 more at bats. His numbers did go up, and he faced more advanced pitching. I’ll take it.

      Abel’s drop of the list is a bit surprising,but he did have a rough 2nd half. Big year for him to prove himself.

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      1. If Johan Rojas had close to the similar slash line of Crawford’s minor league stats……316/.371/.442….with 19%-K and 7%-BB with an 83% steal rate…I would be thrilled. Hopefully Crawford’s metrics in the minors …eventually translate to the majors.

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        1. And they were higher at Reading. I know some will say it’s a hitters park, but the pitching is also better. Im starting to be a believer. I wonder if DD fast tracks him,. Rojas skipped AAA. Miller struggled a bit when jumping leagues if I recall, but Crawford was having a lot of multi-hit games in AA. It’s not out of the question we see Crawford in Philly this year. I know the last jump is the biggest, but if he has .275 BA, .340 OBP, 375 SLG … thats probably enough to bump Rojas if his offseason numbers dont translate to the MLB. He really just needs to have a league avg bat, to slightly below with him Defense. Will see, hopefully a good problem to have soon enough.

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  4. Crawfords plate discipline is so-so and the power is questionable – the doubts are legit, but I think pretty much everyone agrees he should be a regular – the question is just how good he can become. It’s far from clear.

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  5. Crawfords plate discipline is so-so and the power is questionable – the doubts are legit, but I think pretty much everyone agrees he should be a regular – the question is just how good he can become. It’s far from clear.

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    1. The kid (Crawford) can field and steal bases. I think there’s a decent chance he can hit .280 in majors and hit 12-14 home runs a year. If he can keep getting more walks as he develops, he can easily turn himself into a first team regular. He also has lineage from his father. I do think if we make one impact move, it’s probably for an OF like Robert, and Crawford would likely be in that deal.

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      1. For Crawford it comes down to the question of will he show enough power to keep major league pitchers from knocking the bat out of his hands.

        Doesn’t need to be HR power but he will need to show enough doubles power to stay. I am fairly confident that he will get there since he’s shown some advancement already.

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      2. What you’ve described is like a 3-4 WAR player, which is very good. He has a chance to be a whole notch better than that, but how long it will take him to be even a solid MLB regular – who knows? It took JP Crawford 3 or 4 years at least.

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  6. I love Tait but I would not have Caba above Crawford that is just strange to me…

    Dare I say Caba reminds me a lot of Freddy Galvis which isn’t the worse thing in the world. Freddy managed a career slash of 246/292/684 OPS with really good defense.

    Could Caba be better than that? Absolutely it is not a high bar but a #3 Ranking is a bit rich. I’m going to assume he starts at CLW where he finished with 179/304/494 OPS

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    1. Note that at age 18, Ozzie Albies spent the entire season at A ball and slashed .310/.368/.404. Caba had worse numbers and now ranked #3? Strange.

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  7. yea, I just don’t get the Caba stuff. He is ranked top 100 in lots of places. I get he’s young and has a nice approach. He’s got 14 XBH in 400 career AB. That’s awful. Especially when 75% of those AB have taken place in rookie ball. And he only hit .250 in rookie ball last year. Gets moved up to Low A ball for 100 AB & has just 1 XBH. That’s absolutely terrible. Now, I’m not saying over next couple years he can’t develop and carve out a role in the show just as you can’t rule out any 18 year old w/ a bit of pedigree developing into a major leaguer down the line. But…to annount him a legit top 100 prospect is baffling as he has done nothing imo to even be on talent evaluators radar let alone a foundation prospect. Very odd. I’d have him outside the Phillies top 10 prospects as he hasent done absolutely nothing.

    He’s only a year younger than Crawford and the production gap between the two, (especially with Crawfords production being 2 minor league levels higher than Cabas) is so incredibly far apart it’s hard to even comprehend how anyone could have Caba ahead of Crawford unless they were getting paid by Caba himself….not trying to be negative about him but if someone valued him as a top 100 prospect he should be immediately traded. Another team can have the “slick” fielding commodity

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    1. Just to clarify – Starlyn just turned 19 in early December – Justin will be 21 in mid January. It’s a two year age difference. In regards to where they rank on the list it’s insignificant – both have legitimate chances to reach the major leagues. If you have ever seen Starlyn play you would immediately note the athleticism, quickness, eye-hand coordination and bat speed. The surface stats aren’t as important to evaluators as are the impressions and projections. Justin also has many of the same qualities as a player. Both have plus arms and tracking ability – in fact Caba would be an outstanding center fielder if he played there. I’d suggest listening to Josh Norris from BA on the Jersey Shore BlueClaws podcast from a few weeks ago – it goes a long way in explaining how he arrives at his listings. May surprise some.

      Steve Potter

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      1. I don’t doubt that potential and projections matter, but at a certain point, results need to take precedence. So when does that happen? At AA? At high-A?

        You can be the best athlete in the world but if you have issues hitting non-fastballs, it won’t matter.

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        1. of course results matter and are factored in evaluation – didn’t mean to insinuate that stats are entirely discounted. Just sayin that when scouting reports are filed they very rarely speak to stats but rather where a player stands in their development and the tools they have to go forward. Point in case is considering which tools stand out and whether those that are weaker are projectable to improve. There is underlying data to support what a scout sees – video as well. Pitch recognition isn’t an evaluation that’s emphasized until the the High A level when pitchers are more enabled to deliver a broader mix imo. Regardless the surface data posted publicly while important is just one part of the puzzle and not likely the primary consideration.

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          1. yeah i’m in the camp of minor league stats are like 20-30% of the big picture when it comes to a players development unless the stats are abysmal and sign for concern… they tell these guys to look fastball or look breaking ball to “work” on things.. it’s a learning atmosphere, not the big show.. think a lot of folks forget that when the guys are playing, they are out there playing in a specific manner, not of which all the time is to go out and pad stats or care about stats or the outcome of the event, it’s the repetition and practice of it all that is of most importance and to see a players makeup.. they are all amazing athletes and would beat the pants off everysingle one of us here in a game of ball, least not forget it.

            that said, caba did seem a bit inflated, but….. would inflating a guy be the worst thing to do during Hot Stove season….. seems we made a good flip.. chance for chance.. play our window keep cash down.. DD doing what he can while not handcuffing the team for a decade..

            question for those with more of the inside feel here, what’s the post DD plans.. post JM plans… old guys get old on all fronts and some of the current stars will out certainly outlast DD, maybe even JM… i know they seems to be high on Preston, is he the play for GM, what happens post JM, certainly hope his son isn’t playing a part in anything, maybe he has more kids? idk all the other partners in the ownership group to know if any of them truly want their fucking trophy back like JM does, and after the past 6 years i fear for what may become in a post JM Phillies world

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  8. Pitchers with Abel’s ability will always receive opportunities, look no further than Hoffman. However, I fear that if he ever does unlock that talent into MLB success, it will not be in Philadelphia.

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  9. Interesting info on Burkholder, I think Matt W was not very high on that pick(if Im wrong I apologize since Matt Winkleman is a excellent follow on X).

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  10. I see in 28 for lineup no Stott. Will he be a FA by then? I am not up to date on all the service years. Thanks. Nola as #1 is a bit concerning in 4 years.

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    2. Maybe, maybe not. If he is #1 (must have been a great 2027) and his performance justifies it that is a good thing, if he is #1 and it doesn’t justify it, than Painter, Sanchez and Suarez must have laid eggs also.

      Rojas, ….. check my eyebrows 😌

      Harper will be heartbroken…. no Stott …. the “down for double” Las Vegas connection … separated.😥

      All you Hoosiers🤞tonight!

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  12. Curious … I know it’s only a top 10 list, but … they did leave off Otto.. Are they saying he’s too old to be a prospect? Thats my guess… or Is he #11 on the top 30? He’s gotta be up there imo unless you are arguing hes too old.

    His stats are eye popping in a way … 4 levels + the AZ league. His OPS numbers… I like. AAA he didnt have a great 11 games whatever it was… but his AZ performance has got to be having fans excited. He has a real good chance to make the team imo, not a lock… but if he has a great spring … going to be hard to ignore. Weston Wilson & Kemp can make a push to bump Clemens out.. Maybe Sosa do to his salary. I thought Clemens had a better slash line last year but apparently not. he got the highlights though!

    What’s the defensive rankings between Bohm/Sosa/Kemp at 3B? I know they ain’t Mike Schmidt out there… but just trying to see the com-parables.

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  13. Caba is so highly ranked based on his defense. He is a future gold glove caliber SS and that’s rare to find and very valuable. I don’t understand the love for Kemp. He’s not making the team out of spring training barring lots of injuries. He’s an improving hitter who has a chance at a major league career if he can stay healthy and produce. He even has a chance to get called up during the season if he really hits this year at AAA but it’s not a done deal.

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    1. The love for Kemp is totally understandable. He jumped 4 levels last year and then killed in the AFL. He has a good hit tool, he has good plate discipline, he can hit the ball 115 MPH off the bat, which is Harper/Schwarber territory and is said to be a good third baseman. He’s on the outside looking in, but there is a lot to like with this kid.

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      1. I hope you, and others, are right but to me he just feels like another 4A utility player. He’s 25 and hit only 250 at AA/AAA after his promotion there. He’s another Clemons to me.

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        1. Murray – normally I’d overlook someone like Kemp, because he’s 25. Here is why he peaks my interest. Yes, he’s 25 but he missed 2 years with a significant injury. Since then , he has adjusted to every level. Essentially he has slashed an OPS at or above 1.000. He has elite exit velocity. Not the greatest measuring stick, but To me that means he’s seeing the ball, has an approach. He didn’t crush AAA, but it was 13 games or so. His AFL performance makes up for that to me. He has a very real chance to knock someone off the roster. Best part, we shouldn’t have to wait long. We should know by midseason or sooner. Clemens,Sosa, and Wilson should be looking over their shoulders.

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  14. Folks, Caba is an elite prospect. Let’s start with the obvious, he is an 80 grade defender at shortstop. If you have ever seen video of him play defense you immediately see a future gold glover. Electric defensively. Elite arm. Extremely fluid. Covers a lot of ground. He also has plus, plus speed. And already shown an ability to swipe bags (50 last year) at a young age. Nothing controversial so far. So let’s talk about his hit tool.

    Fangraphs gives it a 70 future grade. MLB gives it a 55. In all of my years watching prospects, I have repeatedly discussed the importance of peripheral stats and the insignificance of batting averages.
    1. Walk rate is critical. Pretty simple concept, if a guy doesn’t have a good batter’s eye against minor league pitchers he becomes a “free swinger without plate discipline” at the mlb level (sound familiar?). Caba’s walk rate is exceptional. 23% across 225 PAs in rookie ball and 14% in low A.
    2. A low K rate is critical for a prospect too. If you strike out a lot against minor league pitchers then you won’t get better against major league pitchers. For minor leaguers, anything in the high teens is very good. Low teens is great and single digits is exceptional. Caba’s k rate was 15% and 13% in his two stops last year.
    3. Batting average across a small sample is always heavily influenced by BABIP. Thus it is a very poor indicator of a prospect’s potential. That said, his ISO is extremely low. Not concerning to me. He was 18. All 18yo needs to get stronger. He will.
    4. Handed splits are also critical in judging prospects. If a guy can’t hit LHP minor leaguers then it won’t happen against LHP major leaguers either. Caba is a switch hitter. I have not seen reports that he is weaker on one side.

    As for a comp, I see a shortstop version of Brice Turang. Guys that’s a star. Turang is an electric player. Will only get better offensively. But was a 4.7 bWAR last year. Adding a player like that in 2-3 years easily allows us to move Turner to OF as he ages.

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      1. Brice didn’t play low A as an 18yo. He was 19 in low A. Caba is a year younger than Brice at same level.

        That said, their rookie league stats are very comparable with a significant edge to Caba on both walk rate and stolen bases. Brice had a much higher babip which inflated his batting average. Let’s see how Caba does next year in Clearwater.

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        1. seems like the FO agrees. From the outside, it looks like they’d rather trade Bohm & Crawford over Caba & Miller. BA’s list seems about right. Factor in the luxury tax penalties, I’m starting think we are going to see the top 7 on that list in pinstripes, minus one, maybe 2. I think they’d trade Bohm, Ranger, and Marsh before those prospects. They got something cooking for a change.

          Curious your take for OPS? Is it as Meaningless as BA as a prospect goes through the ranks? Reason I ask, it’s the reason I’m high on Kemp, + he’s making what seems to be great contact when he does connect. 115mph exit velocity seems to be elite. Gotta be seeing the ball well to make that kind of “boom” imho

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  15. Johnson and Chace for Soto was an exceptional trade that is getting overlooked. Everyone likes to gripe about DD. But that was grand theft. Chace is a really exciting prospect. Fangraphs has a future 80 grade on his fastball. 70 current grade. His strikeout numbers are awesome. He has a chance to be a high impact arm for us for a long time. No one talks about that.

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    1. He has to harness his control. His brief time in the Phillies organization last season he was able to do that. His stuff plays well….but then again so does Griff McGarry’s. Chace has to get his BB/9 to remain in the 3 area. If he can do that, then agree….can be a high impact arm. Lets see if he maintains what he did as a Phillie prospect at Reading.

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          1. Tijuana Walker is an elite pitcher about to have a cy young worthy comeback season. Now is the time to buy low. His 2 year $36mil deal will looks like a steal after this season.

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  17. Ugh – that hurts. Caba is going to be another Lindor – less the power. He is already considered the finest fielder in all minors. But Luzardo is a solid talent and they have him for 2 more years. If he is healthy it will be a potential steal for 2 years – but over the long term – we will miss Caba who is a bonafide future potential gold glover. Gives great pitching depth !

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    1. Boyd might hurt as well. They did also get a catching prospect -McIntosh back in the trade. Will be interested to learn about him. Phils need catching

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    1. Caba would have been draft age of a HS’er as of this past years draft. If he was an American, he is easily in the first round. If he is the 54th best prospect then he would have been a top 10 pick in the draft. He is high risk but the upside is huge. I hope he turns out to be a stud. But I also love adding Luzardo.

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    1. Hope Tait gets into the Dominican Winter League next winter….not sure how competitive the pitchers are in the Panama Winter League. Understand why he is there now because it is home with family.

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      1. “To be eligible for the Dominican Winter League (LIDOM), a player must be a native of the Dominican Republic or have Dominican origins and be playing in a mid-Single-A level or higher roster by August 1”

        Got this off google, not sure of the source. I’m pretty sure we’ve had Phillies prospects on Dominican teams who weren’t Dominican, but I think they were all American. I believe they make exceptions for a small number of foreign (mostly American players).

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        1. Got an update: Source is Baseball Prospectus plus the following also from BP.

          “Foreign players are signed basically as free agents, the only difference being the contract is just for one season. Foreign players are important because they are used to add depth and improve positions where the teams have weaknesses. Imports–foreign players–include not only Americans, but players from other countries. In the Dominican Republic each team can have a max of 10 players as imports.”

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          1. Thanks Jim….maybe he can be one of those 10 imports next year…I think it would serve him better. Then again Phillies may place him in the AFL as the Padres did with Salas this past season who is the same age as Tait,

            Merry Christmas Jim, to you and the family…hope you soon begin healing.

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    2. With Marchan it’s all about staying healthy but if he’s well that man is one heck of a ball player. Big fan.

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      1. This is a big year for Marchan. We really need him to eat productive innings. I thought it was clear that JT was warn down at the end of the season. He is a FA after this year. I think JT will come back but hopefully on a 2 year deal. A combo of JT and Marchan to buy time until Tait is ready is the perfect scenario.

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        1. Tait is really an important prospect in our system as he looks like the only possible future starting catcher in the system. His development this next season will be huge for us. I assume he’ll start at CWater and move to the shore at some point. At his age and at catcher I would doubt there’s any chance he makes it to Reading this year. So yes, I totally expect the Phils to extend JT by a year or two.

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    1. MLB may like these changes…..players start at a older age when they get drafted out of college-with little leverage-…plus MLB keeps wanting to set a lower total number of players a club can have in their farm system and the longer a player stays at the collegian level the more they develop without MLB teams paying for that lower A level development. I think MLB would like to get away from drafting players out of high school and leaning for them going the college way.

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  21. Who is a good comp Justin Crawford? Let’s construct him as a hitter with the key peripherals:
    – Walk rate: imo this is Crawford’s biggest weakness. He had a 6% walk rate last year. For a contact with no power hitter that is really low. Ideally we want a hitter like Crawford with 10%+ walk rate. While it is not unprecedented for a player to improve his walk rate in the majors, it is rare. Usually, the walk rate in the majors is very similar to the stat in the minors. If anything it goes down. As an aside, that’s Rojas’s biggest weakness too. He has such a low walk rate. Crawford can’t allow his walk rate to drop like Rojas’s did. below 6% walk rate for a hitter like Crawford is bad. So let’s say he has a 6% walk rate in the Show
    – Strikeouts: a hitter like Crawford needs to stay below a 20% K rate. Last year he was 20% in A and 16% in AA. That’s ok if it holds but it is a bit concerning because he can’t afford a 25% K rate. Let’s assume a 20% K rate for Crawford in the majors.
    – Homer power. I was encouraged by his 9 homers last year. For a 20yo that’s good pop. He also had a pretty good ISO so he has double power too (albeit likely due to his speed more than his power). He looks like he is filling out physically. It’s possible that he has a 20 homer season in his 30s but my guess is he is a 9-15 homer player. For this analysis, let’s say he is a 12 homer player.
    – BABIP. This is a critical stat for a guy like Crawford. I have looked at this stat over and over and it is so random. Sayuki Sasaki led MLB in BABIP last year. Totally random. He is not fast nor has huge power. A guy like Francisco Lindor who is both fast and has good power has a career BABIP of .292. So it is pretty random. Crawford has had an extremely high BABIP throughout the minors career. Unsustainably high. It feels like it is luck combined with his elite speed and poor minor league infielders. For this exercise, let’s say he is a .310 BABIP (slightly better than the league average of .300).
    – So the math of a player with those stats produces a hitter with a .263 batting average with a .323 OB%. Add in 12 homers and 25-30 doubles that’s a productive player.
    – If he can also become a 50 steal player, then that that is a really good offensive player. There are few players with stats like that.
    – So who are comps for those metrics?
    – Jacob Young, an outfielder for the Nats, is pretty close to those numbers. Although Young had 3 homers not 12. And 33 stolen bases, not 50. But Young had a 2.6 fWAR last year. Productive player.
    – A totally different player, but as an fyi Nick Castellanos had a 6% walk rate and a 21% K rate, and hit .254 w a .311 OB%. but Nick had 23 homers and only 5 stolen bases. So Nick is a much slower but more power offensive comp. Not really similar player, but wanted to show what a similar K rate and walk rate and BABIP player looks like.
    – Another good comp might be Brice Turang. Brice was a 4.7 bWAR player last year. He had an 8% walk rate and a 17% K rate. With 50 steals and 7 homers. And a .300 BABIP. He hit .254 with a .316 OB%. That might be Crawford’s peak upside.
    – Add in a plus defender at CF and that is a really really good player. Borderline all-star.

    What can go wrong?
    1. Walk rate falls below 5%. That would be bad.
    2. K rate goes above 25%. A K-rate of 25%+ for a guy like Crawford is really bad.

    Put those two downside scenarios together and you have Johan Rojas. That’s Crawford’s floor.

    Speaking of Rojas, his AA stats as a 22yo,
    – K rate of 16.7%
    – Walk rate of 6.8%
    – 9 homers
    – 30 stolen bases
    – BABIP of .349
    – Hitting line: .306/.361/.845 OPS

    Eerily similar AA stats for Crawford and Rojas. Although Crawford did it as a 20yo.

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    1. Good analysis. I still say they rushed Rojas to the majors before he was ready and he hasn’t had the time to finish development. It’s much harder to develop in the majors but not impossible. Apparently he’s hitting well in the winter league currently which is a positive.

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      1. I honestly don’t care how well Rojas hits in the winter league. I care about two metrics with Rojas.
        1. Walk rate
        2. K rate

        His profile is entirely dependent upon those two metrics. If he had a 9% walk rate instead of 3% which he has had the past two years he would be an everyday player. He dropped his K rate last year to 19%. Down from 25.6% the prior year. That’s a phenomenal improvement. If he can keep it at 19% or maybe even lower it a little more to 16% then he can be a productive hitter. Especially with his base stealing ability. To be a regular he needs to increase his walk rate too. 3% is way way too low.

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        1. I agree on the walk rate but he needs to hit the ball harder more consistently and raise his babip. With his speed that would really help him too.

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