2024-25 Offseason Roster and Payroll Information

Other Stuff

“Sometimes you trade good players for good players”.  This quote from President of Baseball Operations, Dave Dombrowski, may well be our mantra for the offseason.

Time to put on our general manager or president of baseball operations hats and begin recommending or endorsing the roster moves that will improve the team for another more successful playoff run in the 2025. 

This annual exercise includes lots of guessing.  How many and which free agents will be targeted by the organization, which free agents would we target, how much money is available to sign free agents, which arbitration-eligible players will be tendered offers,  which arbitration eligible players do we think should be no-tendered, do any of our free agents get qualifying offers, which pre-arbitration players should be tendered contracts, which players should the organization consider acquiring through trades, which players (if any) should the Phillies try to trade, and will the Phillies successfully enter the Japanese market?

We have seen during the Phillies recent history that money is not a deterrent, that they are in on any player they think will help the team, and that they have dabbled in the Japanese market.

This will be pinned on the site for a couple weeks or until an update is necessary.

Summary of Expenses

The checkbook is once again open this coming offseason, so the following section doesn’t address how much money is available under the cap.  The limits applied by a cap have become a memory in our recent past.  In fact, the Phillies have exceeded the cap the past three seasons.  Rather this section will address how many thresholds the Phillies have exceed and by how much.

  • 2025 CBT threshold ……………………………. $241,000,000 (for 40 players)
  • Sunk Costs:          $      21,766,667   (includes 14 of the 40-man spots)
  • Guarantees:         $    220,537,104   (11 contracts/11 players)
  • Arbitration:          $      29,500,000   (8 of 9 tendered, 6 on active roster)
  • Pre-Arb:                 $        2,280,000   (3 at league minimum, or more)
  • Options:                $         1,000,000   (buyout for Merrifield)
  • Total Costs:          $   275,083,771   (with 3-6 openings still on the active roster)
  • Amount Over the CBT threshold … $34,083,771 (over the first threshold)
  • CBT Thresholds:  $241M/$261M/$281M/$301M

The Phillies aren’t likely to shy away from paying the Luxury Tax penalty for players they think will improve their chance at a World Series trophy.  They will probably look to add a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher (I’ll cover that in a later sections), a big bat outfielder (we hope), a high-leverage reliever (again, we hope), additional relievers, and repopulate the bench either via internal or external means.  Plus, they will have to restock Triple-A with major league ready depth, especially pitching, again also via internal or external means.

In the coming days and weeks, decisions by players and the organization will determine which vacancies will need to be filled on the active roster, the 40-man roster, and the upper minors.

Sunk Costs

Sunk costs are the costs the organization incurs that are not directly related to player acquisition and payroll.  They are predictable and recurring.

The Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold sets the maximum that a team can spend before penalties are levied, the Luxury Tax.  The amount is agreed upon by the players and owners as part of the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA).  For the 2025 season, the CBT threshold is $241,000,000.

The Phillies, and all teams, will have expenditures that do not have specific players attached to them.  These costs do not count against salary but do count against the CBT threshold.  These will effectively lower the dollars available to sign players.

The first sunk cost is the team’s portion of player benefits.  This is determined by calculating the total payroll throughout the major leagues and dividing by thirty (the number of franchises).  This figure goes up each year.  Each team’s estimated contribution for the 2025 season is $17,500,000.

The second sunk cost is the estimated salary for the minor league players on the 40-man roster.  That’s 14 players.  The estimate for the 2025 season is $2,600,000.

The newest sunk cost is the team’s contribution to the “zero-to-three-year” bonus pool.  The Phillies’ (and each team’s) share amounts to $1,666,667.

So, that’s an estimate of $21,766,667 that counts against the CBT threshold and doesn’t add a player to the active roster.  That bite out of the CBT threshold leaves $219,233,333 under the threshold to fill 26 active roster spots.

Guaranteed Contracts

The Phillies go into the offseason with eleven players having guaranteed contracts for the 2025 season.

  1. Zack Wheeler enters the 1st year of a 3-year contract extension ($126M (25-27)). It’ll be his age-35 season.  2025 salary is $42,000,000.  Luxury Tax salary is $42.0M.
  2. Bryce Harper enters the 7th year of a 13-year contract ($330M (19-31)). It’ll be his age-32 season.  2025 salary is $27,538,462.  Luxury Tax salary is $25,384,615.
  3. Trea Turner enters the 3rd year of an 11-year contract ($300M (23-33)). It’ll be his age-32 season.  2025 salary is $27,272,727.  Luxury Tax salary is $27,272,727.
  4. Aaron Nola enters the 2nd year of a 7-year contract ($172M (24-30)).  It’ll be his age-32 season.  2025 salary is $24,571,429.  Luxury Tax salary is $24,571,429.
  5. JT Realmuto enters the 5th year of a 5-year contract ($115.5M (21-25)). It’ll be his age-34 season.  2025 salary is $23,875,000.  Luxury Tax salary is $23.1M.
  6. Nick Castellanos enters the 4th year of a 5-year contract ($100M (22-26)).  It’ll be his age-33 season.  2025 salary is $20,000,000.  Luxury Tax salary is $20M.
  7. Kyle Schwarber enters the 4th year of a 4-year contract ($79M (22-25)). It’ll be his age-32 season.  2025 salary is $20,000,000.  Luxury Tax salary is $19.75M.
  8. Taijuan Walker enters the 3rd year of a 4-year contract ($72M (23-26)). It’ll be his age-32 season.  2025 salary is $18,000,000.  Luxury Tax salary is $18,000,000.
  9. Matt Strahm enters the 1st year of a 1-year extension ($7.5M (25+opt)).  It’ll be his age 33 season   2025 salary is $7,500,000.  Luxury Tax salary – $7,500,000.
  10. Jose Alvarado enters the 3rd year of a 3-year contract ($22M (23-25+opt)). It’ll be his age-30 season.  2025 salary is $9,016,667.  Luxury Tax salary is $7,333,333.
  11. Christopher Sanchez enters the 1st year of a 4-year contract ($22.5M (25-28=opts)). It’ll be his age-28 season.  2025 salary is $1,750,000.  Luxury Tax salary is $5.625M.

These eleven contracts account for a total salary of $221,524,285 but only $220,537,104 counts against the CBT threshold.

The guaranteed contracts and sunk costs raise expenses against the Threshold to $242,303,771 and put the Phillies

  • $1,303,771 over the first CBT threshold of $241M (50% penalty) with 15 active roster spots to fill.
  • They are $18,696,229 under the second threshold of $261M (62% penalty),
  • $38,696,229 under the third threshold of $281M (95% penalty), and
  • $58,696,229 under the top threshold of $301M (110% penalty).

The 2024 season was the third consecutive year the Phillies exceeded the CBT threshold.

Arbitration Eligible Players

The Phillies have 9 players eligible for arbitration.  Last year the Phillies avoided arbitration with 7 of 8 arbitration eligible players (Gregory Soto, Ranger Suarez, Jeff Hoffman, Edmundo Sosa, Jake Cave, Dylan Covey, and Garrett Stubbs).  Alec Bohm went to arbitration and won his arbitration case.  Cave and Covey did not make the 2024 Opening Day roster.

The arbitration estimates below are taken from MLB Trade Rumors.

  1. Ranger Suarez (5.112) had a 2024 salary of $5,050,000 and enters his third of three arb years, going into his age 29 season.  Arbitration estimate $8.9M.
  2. Alec Bohm (4.106) had a 2024 salary of $4,000,000 and enters his second of three arbitration years, going into his age 28 season.  Arbitration estimate $8.1M.
  3. Edmundo Sosa (4.140) had a 2024 salary of $1,700,000 and enters his third of four arbitration years, going into his age 29 season.  Arbitration estimate $2.5M.
  4. Garrett Stubbs (4.120) had a 2024 salary of $850,000 and enters his second of three arbitration years, going into his age 32 season.  Arbitration estimate $1.2M.
  5. Bryson Stott (3.000) had a 2024 salary of $768,000 and enters his first of three arbitration years, going into his age 27 season.  Arbitration estimate $3.5M.
  6. Brandon Marsh (3.078) had a 2024 salary of $766,500 and enters his first of three arbitration years, going into his age 27 season.  Arbitration estimate $3.0M.
  7. Austin Hays (5.057) had a 2024 salary of $2,235,484 and enters his third of three arbitration years, going into his age 29 season.  Arbitration estimate $6.4M.
  8. Jose Ruiz (4.148) had a 2024 salary of $745,968 and enters his second of three years of arbitration, going into his age 30 season.  Arbitration estimate $1.2M.
  9. Kolby Allard (4.021) had a 2024 salary of $433,871 and enters his second of three arb years, going into his age 27 season.  Arbitration estimate $1.1M.

If the Phillies were to sign all nine players at the estimated figures, they would spend $35.9M.  I think it highly unlikely that is the case this year.

Suarez, Bohm, Stott, and Marsh are locks, for now, right?  Ruiz and Allard seem like inexpensive depth.  Sosa and Stubbs, too.  The proposed estimate of $6.4M seems like a lot for Hays who will likely be the short side of a platoon.  Stubbs signed a split contract for less than the estimate last season.  He still retains an option.  He’s likely to sign a team friendly contract again.

As mentioned above, the Phillies have a history of reaching agreements and avoiding arbitration.  That is likely to happen again.  Of course, there is the possibility that one or more of these guys signs a multi-year extension.  I’m writing this before the NLDS.  I do not think that Suarez is an extension candidate.  I think he is more likely a trade candidate as the Phillies pursue bigger starting pitcher fish this offseason.

Assuming the Phillies non-tender Hays but reach agreement with the other players, this will commit about $29,500,000 toward the threshold and raise expenses against the threshold to $272,803,771.  This would likely fill just 6 active roster spots with Allard and Stubbs starting at Triple-A.  That would leave them with 9 active roster spots to fill.  They would be

  • $30,803,771 over the first threshold of $241M (50% penalty),
  • $10,803,771 over the second threshold of $261M (62% penalty),
  • $9,196,229 under the $281M threshold (95% penalty), and
  • $29,196,229 under the $301M threshold (110% penalty).

Pre-Arbitration, Cost-Controlled Players

The minimum salary in 2024 was $740,000.  The Phillies had agreements with most of their pre-arbitration players for slightly more than that amount (some as high as $748K).  The minimum salary in 2025 is $760,000.  The pre-arbitration players on the active roster will receive that amount or a little above depending on how the Phillies calculate their raises.

A good portion of the remaining spots on the active roster might be filled from within the organization with these affordable, cost-controlled, pre-arbitration players.  This group includes the remainder of the 40-man roster (19 players) –

  1. Orion Kerkering,
  2. Tanner Banks,
  3. Jose Cuas,
  4. Tyler Gilbert,
  5. Seth Johnson,
  6. Max Lazar,
  7. Yunior Marte,
  8. Michael Mercado,
  9. Tyler Phillips,
  10. Freddy Tarnok,
  11. Kyle Tyler,
  12. Rafael Marchan,
  13. Kody Clemens,
  14. Buddy Kennedy,
  15. Johan Rojas,
  16. Cal Stevenson,
  17. Weston Wilson,
  18. Luis Ortiz,
  19. Rodolfo Castro.

Maybe six of the nine openings on the active roster can be filled from this group.  Maybe as few as two.  Let’s assume three for now (Kerkering, Banks, Marchan).  That would add another $2,280,000 to the expense threshold and raise expenses against the threshold to $275,083,771.  This would leave them with 6 active roster spots to fill.  They would be

  • $33,083,771 over the first threshold of $241M (50% penalty),
  • $13,083,771 over the second threshold of $261M (62% penalty),
  • $6,916,229 under the $281M threshold (95% penalty), and
  • $26,916,229 under the $301M threshold (110% penalty).

Player Options

The Phillies have no players with options for the 2025 season.  However, I believe they are stuck for the $1,000,000 buyout for 2025 on Whit Merrifield’s contract regardless of his being picked up from waivers by Atlanta.

The $1,000,000 buyout raises expenses against the threshold to $276,083,771.  This still leaves them with 6 active roster spots to fill.  They would be

  • $34,083,771 over the first threshold of $241M (50% penalty),
  • $14,083,771 over the second threshold of $261M (62% penalty),
  • $5,916,229 under the $281M threshold (95% penalty), and
  • $25,916,229 under the $301M threshold (110% penalty).

Free Agents

The Phillies have 3 free agents among the players on their 40-man roster – RHPs Carlos Estevez, Jeff Hoffman, and Spencer Turnbull.  They may consider resigning one or both of Estevez and Hoffman.  Definitely not Turnbull.  He served his purpose in 2024.  He was rotation depth if needed.  Unfortunately, he was needed much earlier in the season than anticipated.  He had innings limitations.  Nothing has changed.  He had another injury riddled season and once again couldn’t reach 60 innings.  The only year he surpassed that mark was in 2019 when he threw 148.1 innings in 30 starts.  Yes, definitely time to move on from Turnbull.

Qualifying Offers

The Phillies are unlikely to extend a Qualifying Offer to any of their three free agents.  Last year’s QO was $20,325,000.  This year’s QO is $21,050,000.

In Season Options and Other Roster Stuff

The Phillies burned the final option of several players in 2024.  The different sites that track such do not always agree.  Sometimes a team will request an additional option the way that the Phillies requested and received an additional option for Rafael Marchan.  We don’t always know when this occurs.  The following numbers are pretty accurate.

The Phillies exercised the final options for Yunior Marte, Rafael Marchan, Kolby Allard, Rodolfo Castro, Kody Clemens, Tyler Gilbert, Buddy Kennedy, Cal Stevenson, Tyler Phillips, Freddy Tarnok, and Jose Cuas.

Johan Rojas, Seth Johnson, Kyle Tyler, and Weston Wilson have one option remaining.

 Max Lazar, and Michael Mercado, have two options remaining.

During the 2024 season, the Phillies were very active moving players off and on the active roster.  The Phillies –

  • selected the contracts of 9 players (Ricardo Pinto, Jose Ruiz, David Dahl, Nick Nelson, Aramis Garcia, Cal Stevenson, Tyler Gilbert, Max Lazar, and Tyler Phillips)
  • designated 7 players for assignment (Ricardo Pinto, David Dahl, Nick Nelson (twice), Aramis Garcia, Max Castillo, Darick Hall, and Michael Rucker)
  • exercised 40 options on 22 different players
    • 9 options on 9 players on or before the start of the season (Michael Mercado, Darick Hall, Rodolfo Castro, Max Castillo, Kolby Allard, Nick Nelson, Weston Wilson, Kody Clemens, and Jose Rodriguez)
    • 19 options after 13 players who were recalled (Nick Nelson, Kody Clemens twice, Weston Wilson, Yunior Marte thrice, Rafael Marchan, Michael Mercado twice, Kolby Allard twice, Buddy Kennedy twice, Seth Johnson, Cal Stevenson, Tyler Gilbert, Max Lazar, and Tyler Phillips)
    • 4 options after 4 players’ contracts were selected (Cal Stevenson, Tyler Gilbert, Max Lazar, and Tyler Phillips)
    • 2 options after 2 players were activated after starting the season on an injury list (Rafael Marchan and Michael Rucker)
    • 3 options after 3 players were claimed off waivers (Freddy Tarnok, Kyle Tyler, and Jose Cuas )
    • 1 option after a player was acquired in a trade (Buddy Kennedy)
    • 2 options of players who started the season on the opening day roster (Johan Rojas and Yunior Marte)

Free Agent Targets

The Phillies have a roster laden with stars.  Supposedly, it’s unlikely that the Phillies will sign additional free agents.  However, some roster subtractions might lead to a free agent addition or two.

Corner Outfield – The Phillies will undoubtedly kick the tires on Juan Soto.  They may not sign him, but it will remain a possibility throughout the offseason.  There are only a very few teams that can afford him although it is unlikely that his contract approaches the $700M suggested by some writers.  Corner outfielders who might interest the Phillies include offensive stalwarts like Teoscar Hernandez (.840 OPS, 33 HR, too many Ks 188), Randall Grichuk (.875 OPS, 46 starts), Tyler O’Neil (.847 OPS, 31 HR, too many Ks 33.6%), Rob Refsnyder (.830 OPS, low SLG, 51 starts), Anthony Santander (.814 OPS, 44 HR), and my personal favorite Jurickson Profar (.830 OPS, 15.1% K, 11.4 BB).  But I expect a serious run at Soto first.

Center Field – Not a top priority for the Phillies.  Cody Bellinger is by far the best offensive center fielder available.  But he has to opt out $26M and would likely be very expensive.  He only had 47 starts in CF but committed no errors.  There’s really no other clear upgrade except maybe Harrison Bader who has the lowest fielding percentage (.986) among all CF free agents.

Catcher – If the Phillies decide that they want better than Stubbs and Marchan, there is little to choose from.  First, you have to find a catcher who doesn’t mind reduced playing time behind Realmuto.  Then you hope to get a guy with better offense.  And finally you want a guy who is a good defensive catcher.

None of the free agent catchers checks all three boxes, but several check off two – Elias Diaz, Austin Barnes, Luke Maile, Yasmani Grandal, Tomas Nido, Reese McGuire, and Alex Jackson.  Barnes and Maile have options.  They along with Diaz were paid over $3M last season.  I don’t know that any is a clear upgrade over Marchan and Stubbs.  I think I stay the course behind the plate.

Third Base – Alec Bohm is our current third baseman.  A replacement would have to provide similar or better offense and defense.  There are only two full time third basemen among this year’s free agents – Alex Bregman and Eugenio Suarez. Bregman should be expensive, and Suarez strikes out at a 27.5% clip.

Middle Infielders – Trea Turner and Bryson Stott seem entrenched in their positions.  Personally, I would flip their positions.  I would not consider Turner in center field.

Pitchers – I don’t know.  How about Max Fried and Tommy Kahnle.

Here are a couple files listing the available free agents when I started this article.

2025 Free Agent Pitchers

2025 Free Agent Position Players

Trades Targets

“Sometimes you trade good players for good players”.

I expect the Phillies to renew their efforts to acquire LHP Garrett Crochet.  The package they offered at the trade deadline indicated the seriousness of their interest and how highly they think of him – several top prospects (more than two) and a couple guys from their active roster.  That seems serious.

Of course, there will be many more targets that we won’t know about including the ridiculous reports we will see from national writers all through the offseason.  For example, I read in the Sporting News that the Yankees are going to sign Thomson away from the Phillies and that Turnbull will be a superstar – a manager under contract and a pitcher who can’t stay healthy and throw more than 60 innings.

Minor League Free Agents

Any Phillies’ minor league player who signed before 2018 has satisfied his 7-year UPC requirement.  Any Phillies minor league player who signed in 2018 and was assigned to an affiliate during the 2018 season has likely satisfied same.  The Phillies have 24 players who meet that requirement.  Most may qualify for free agency.

Tyler McKay, Carlos De La Cruz, Matt Kroon, Christian Hernandez, Jordi Martinez, Dominic Pipkin, and Kendall Simmons are seven players who signed their first Minor League UPC with the Phillies in 2017 or 2018 and the required seven years have been satisfied.

Darick Hall and Scott Kingery both signed their first Minor League UPC with the Phillies prior to 2017 and acquired some time at the Major League level before satisfying the required seven years.

Cody Roberts, and Jose Rodriguez signed their first Minor League UPC with other organizations in 2018.  They were acquired by the Phillies via the Rule 5 Draft and trade.  Their required seven years have been satisfied.

Nick Nelson signed his first Minor League UPC with another organization in 2016 and acquired some time at the Major League level before satisfying the required seven years.

Aramis Garcia, Jim Haley, Zach Haake, Robinson Pina, Ryan McKenna, and Lachlan Wells had satisfied their initial Minor League UPC and signed two subsequent UPCs.

Dylan Covey, Nick Snyder, Alan Rangel, Jordan Luplow, David Dahl, and Andrew Bellati had satisfied their initial Minor League UPC and signed more than two subsequent UPCs.  A couple signed as many as five.

Now, some of these guys may have signed existing contracts for more than one year.  By rule, second and any subsequent Minor League UPCs can be up to 7 years.  So, it’s possible that a couple may have a year or more on their contract.  Most likely catchers and maybe pitchers.

Note that 3B Matt Kroon has signed a successor contract with the Phillies.

  • MLR 9(c)2 SUCCESSOR CONTRACT. A player shall not become a “Minor League free agent” if the player has entered into a successor contract with the player’s Major League Club or has been placed on the Major League Reserve List before the expiration of the player’s Minor League Uniform Player Contract. No negotiations for a successor contract may take place before the completion of the Minor League player’s championship season and playoffs or after 5 p.m. Eastern Time on the date the player’s Minor League Uniform Player Contract expires.  The window is the period of time between the end of the player’s season/playoffs and the end of his existing contract.

Rule 5 Candidates

Over 30 players are eligible for the Rule 5 draft.  I think the only players they protect will come from among the eligible pitchers.  Abel for sure maybe Castellano and Chace, plus any guys who increase their stock in the AFL.

The first timers (14) –

  • LHP: Tristan Garnett, Matt Osterberg
  • RHP: Mick Abel, Griff McGarry, Konnor Ash, Andrew Baker, Tommy McCollum, Christian McGowan, Jaydenn Estanista, Alex Garbrick, Estibenzon Jimenez, Pedro Reyes
  • OF: Ethan Wilson, Felix Reyes

The second timers (16)

  • RHP: Jean Cabrera, Eiberson Castellano, Moises Chace, Gunner Mayer, Noah Skirrow, Giussepe Velasquez
  • Catchers: Luis Caicuto, Andrick Nava, Brahian Silva, Carson Taylor
  • Infielders: Erick Brito, Diego Gonzalez, Fernando Hernandez
  • Outfielders: Marcus Lee Sang, Leandro Pineda, Ricardo Rosario

The three timers (6) –

  • LHP: Erubiel Armenta
  • RHP: Nelson Alvarez, Jonah Dipoto, Carlos A. Francisco, Andrew Schultz
  • Infielders: Trevor Schweke

Others (3) –

  • RHP: Cody Stashak, signed MiLB FA contract 10/30/2024
  • Catchers: Josh Breaux, signed MiLB 2-year contract 6/30/2024
  • Infielders: Matt Kroon, signed MiLB successor contract 10/2024

A Few Upcoming Important Dates

  • October 31, 2024: First date players may be traded between Major League Clubs
  • October 31, 2024: Eligible XX(B) players become free agents (start of the quiet period)
    • ARTICLE XX(B) Free Agency – Following the completion of the term of his Uniform Player’s Contract, any Player with 6 or more years of Major League service who has not executed a contract for the next succeeding season shall become a free agent.
  • November 1, 2024: Article XX(D) Free Agency period begins. 
    • ARTICLE XX(D) – Outright Assignment to Minor League Club –
      • Any Player who has at least 3 years of Major League service, or
        who qualified as a “Super Two” Player as of the conclusion of the championship season, and whose contract is assigned outright to a Minor League club may elect to become a free agent. If such a Player with at least 3 years of Major League service does not elect free agency, he may elect free agency during the period between

        • (i) the end of the then Major League season and
        • (ii) the October 15, or
        • 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time on the second day after the final post-season game (whichever occurs later), unless such Player is returned to a Major League roster prior to making such election. Any Player who accepts an outright assignment as a “Super Two” Player will not retain a right to elect free agency following the season.
      • Any Player whose contract is assigned outright to a Minor League club for the second time or any subsequent time in his career may elect to become a free agent. In the event that such Player does not elect free agency at the time of the assignment, he may elect free agency during the Election Period, unless such Player is returned to a Major League roster prior to making such election.
  • November 1, 2024: Deadline for the 2025 International Player Registration Period
  • November 3, 2024: Last date to request waivers on draft-excluded players until next spring
    • MLR 5(h) DRAFT-EXCLUDED PLAYERS.  A player who has less than three years of Major League service as of the conclusion of the championship season and who is excluded from selection in a Rule 5 Selection Meeting because the player was promoted to a Major League Reserve List after August 15 of the championship season preceding the selection meeting and remains on a Major League Reserve List through the conclusion of such selection meeting shall be referred to as a “draft-excluded player.” A draft-excluded player shall not be reassigned to a minor league affiliate until 20 days before the opening day of the following Major League season.
  • November 4, 2024: Last date to outright potential Minor League free agent without Major League contract, if applicable
  • November 4, 2024: Last date for former Club to tender qualifying offer to XX(B) players, if applicable
  • November 4, 2024: Domestic Minor League Player Limit increases to 175 players
  • November 4, 2024: Minor League players become free agents at 5:00 p.m. ET, if applicable
  • November 4, 2024: End of Quiet period, XX(B) free agents may sign with any Club
  • November 4, 2024: All players on the 60-day Injured List (Major and Minor) and Full-Season Injured Lists must be reinstated
  • November 19, 2024: XX(B) players decide to accept qualifying offer from former Club by 4:00 p.m. ET. if applicable
  • November 19, 2024: Last date to outright an injured player to the Minor Leagues, if applicable
  • November 19, 2024: Reserve lists for all Major and Minor League levels filed by 6:00 p.m. ET (all Transactions MUST be entered by 5:30 p.m. ET)
  • November 22, 2024: Final day that clubs must tender/non-tender contracts to players on the Major League Reserve List (40-man roster)
  • December 1, 2024: Release of the 2025 International Registered Players List
  • December 4, 2024: Last date to request Outright Waivers to assign player prior to Rule 5 Draft
  • December 8-11, 2024: Baseball Winter Meetings, Dallas, TX
  • December 10, 2024: MLB Draft Lottery.
  • December 11, 2024: Major League Rule 5 Draft – Winter Meetings, Dallas, TX
  • December 15, 2024: End of 2024 International Signing Period

Notable Transactions

  • 10/2024 – Phillies signed 3B Matt Kroon to a successor contract
  • 10/30/2024 – Phillies signed FA RHP Cody Stashak to an MiLB contract
  • 10/15/2024 – C Aramis Garcia elected free agency
  • 10/10/2024 – RHP Andrew Bellatti elected free agency
  • 10/10/2024 – RHP Dylan Covey elected free agency
  • 10/10/2024 – RHP Nick Nelson elected free agency

Some Random Notes

  1. Need a starting pitcher.
  2. They will need reliable SP depth at Lehigh Valley.
  3. Need one or two back-end, high-leverage relievers for the active roster.
  4. Catcher is set no matter who is the backup.
  5. The infield of Harper, Stott, Turner, Bohm may not be set.
  6. The outfield is not set.
  7. Schwarber is entrenched at DH but not as leadoff.
  8. The bench has openings.
  9. The importance of options will come into play.

 

The portions from the MLR and CBA have been slightly edited for brevity and hopefully ease of understanding.  I don’t think I’ve altered the intent when trying to translate the legalese.

 

236 thoughts on “2024-25 Offseason Roster and Payroll Information”

  1. Great post. Was thinking about this exact question last night. Specifically as I was watching Ohtani celebrate I was wondering, “what does Mike Trout think right now?” I know that we have been down this path many times and ultimately it is Mike’s decision. But I wonder if he was thinking, “man, maybe I should try to get to Philly and win one before I retire.” I am very aware of the health risks. I get it. It is a big gamble. But if he is healthy, adding Trout to our lineup makes it by far the best in baseball. A lineup of:
    1. Trout
    2. Harper
    3. Trea
    4. Schwarber
    5. Castellanos
    6. Bohm
    7. Stott
    8. Marsh
    9. JT

    Is the best in baseball imo. And again, I know the injury risk. I get it. Big gamble on health. But man the upside is unlike anyone else we can get besides Soto and I honestly think there is zero chance we get Soto.

    So what would it take to get Trout if he asked for a deal? I think the Phillies would have leverage. They would have to give up a good package but nothing insane.

    For me, Painter, Miller and Crawford are untouchable. And I would try hard to avoid adding Tait or Caba. But 3 of anyone else in our minors works for me. I would also be willing to include Rojas or even Marsh if they wanted him back.

    One more time, I understand the injury risk. But as I look at other options, it is hard to see a real impact player that’s a realistic option. And man what a fun story that would be to bring Trout home to end his career.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Trout last year….29 games …WAR1.1…..over only 130 games that would equate out to a 4.9WAR. I would try to get him…..a sane GM like Perry M. would accommodate, but that owner is obstinate to a fault….he easily could have turned that franchise around starting in July 2023 if he only traded Ohtani to the crosstown guys for the haul they offered…then Ohtani gets hurt. Their fanbase must be so frustrated.

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    2. I would rather take a chance on Mike Trout (with the Angels paying down some of his contract) than spend $500M-$700M on Juan Soto.

      Liked by 1 person

    3. Beg your pardon, but since 89% of your hypothetical lineup exists in house exclusive of Trout and they just proved they aren’t the best in baseball. What is jotted down on paper has to be proven on the field of play before they wear the mantle, “best in baseball”! You are entitled to your opinion, just the difference between you and me. Also, looks very DH heavy to me in the very short-term!

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      1. “You are entitled to your opinion, just the difference between you and me.” << are you suggesting that you do not share your opinion here? Or that this is not the right space to share one’s opinion? Did you actually read what Jim wrote? Hi literally asked for our opinions,

        “Time to put on our general manager or president of baseball operations hats and begin recommending or endorsing the roster moves that will improve the team for another more successful playoff run in the 2025.”

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    4. One has to wonder Trout’s thought process just seeing Ohtani in the playoffs, let alone a WS Champ… just 1 year removed. He’s gotta ask for what he wants. Maybe he wants to be in LAA, to win with LAA… the thing is…. LAA doesn’t look like they are winning anytime soon. He has to see the writing on the wall. 6 years remain, and at best has 4 shots with the LAA. Art has said he will increase payroll to be competitive in 2025…but Soto is not an option. Trout should ask to leave imo, thats unacceptable. Even if it’s not to the Phillies. His servitude to LAA is over, he owes MLB more at this point IMHO. MLB needs him in the Playoffs.

      I do the deal, and I’d pay a lot for him.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Jim…very good in-depth look at the Phillies org/personnel.

    With just a few more weeks until the 2025 40 is submitted…I do think there could be some DFAs……I am guessing right now, Castro, Cuas, Tarnok and Marte. That will give them 4 open slots for any pick-ups thru trades, or free agency signings…..not sure they will take part in the Rule 5 draft…unless it is for pitching, a reliever.

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    1. I learned at the Complex today that Cuas and Tarnok each still have an option remaining. Don’t know if that changes anything for you, but those options are important to the Phillies.

      Also learned today that Breaux was signed to a two-year deal, so he isn’t a free agent this year.

      I’ll make the necessary updates to the text above later today. Might learn a few more things as the day progresses.

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  3. Jim – just an amazing amount of work had to go into this. Thanks. To unpack some thoughts – I think they’ll try to get another top 3 rotation pitcher but I’m not confident they’ll be able to do it. I don’t expect Ranger to be traded. I don’t think the IF will look different next year but the OF certainly will. Marsh could be traded with prospects. Tait and Caba are very highly regarded in minor league circles and would get us something good. The Phils will definitely talk to the White Sox again. Abel, McGarry, Chace, and maybe other arms (Cabrera?) will be added to the 40. Listening to the Mattingly podcast tells you they still like McGarry and love Chace. I’m glad the Series is over, let’s get the off-season started.

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    1. If the Phillies do close a deal with Chicago for Crochet, I expect Suarez or Sanchez to be part of the deal. (And, through my Phillies’ rosy-red colored glasses, one of those guys should almost be enough. Especially with the control a team would have over Sanchez with his contract.)

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      1. If Crochet stays on their wish list…wonder if CFer Robert will also be included in any trade with the Sox.

        Names that could be bandied around could be Ranger, Marsh, Rojas, Abel and even maybe someone like Marchan. I just hope Crawford, Miller and Painter are excluded.

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        1. I would be stunned if any of the big 3 prospects are traded. However, all other names (Caba and Tait lead the list with Rincones just behind) are in discussion.

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      2. If Crochet gets traded, then Sanchez would likely be part of that deal. Sanchez’s contract is really valuable.

        The question now is if Crochet gives more value than Sanchez (including his contract)? Crochet has 2 more years left before FA but he’s looking to get paid. I seriously doubt he takes Sanchez’s team friendly deal.

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        1. I wonder if Sanchez, Marsh. Abel and another prospect, would move the needle for the WSox for Crochet and Robert. Sox do save tons of cash and stay young.

          I really liked Marsh his first two years…..but now I have soured on him. In the field he is plus, good teammate…..but does not or cannot adjust with two strikes. Robert is not much better when it comes to K rate….but he is that RHB power guy that gives more balance to the lineup construction.

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            1. Crochet is younger with a better SO rate so I do think he’s better than Sanchez.

              However, Sanchez has a very team friendly deal for the next 4 years AND 2 team options. If Sanchez continues to be a 3 WAR pitcher, the contract will look crazy good.

              Crochet is good enough I think to be a 5-6 WAR pitcher if his SO/walk rate holds. But he hits FA after 2 more years and he’s going to get seriously paid. As everybody knows, the margin of error when giving a pitcher $25M+ per year is very low.

              Liked by 1 person

  4. Jim. Great post on the team. So much information. You are awesome. I too think they go after Crochet. I was really impressed with his last two starts that I got to watch. Romus. Lots of people have concerns with Robert staying healthy. Guess we put Trout in that mix as well. I agree the team has to make some moves and that money is not an issue. It is going to be interesting to see what direction the team goes for 2025. One thing is something has to be done soon with this core group. Age is starting to climb up the ladder for them. Hopefully some young reinforcements who are ready to contribute are not too far down the horizon. I still think at least 5 of the starting 9 return. After that things get iffy. Maybe 7.

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  5. Great work, Jim.

    The Phils went in big (unsuccessfully) for Yamamoto last off-season. That money never got spent and the free agent signing of Merrifield didn’t move the needle. The Phils will be a bigger player in free agency this time around.

    Age and team health are a consideration. No Trout to Philly in the off-season or at any time until he displays a period of good health. No deal the Angels would accept makes sense for the Phils. There’s a part of me that would like to be wrong but I don’t think I am.

    On age, there’s no point in losing Bohm in a scenario involving the acquisition of Bregman. An older, more expensive roster is not where Dombrowski is headed.

    The Phils need to be winners — the team doesn’t need a fan draw the way they did when they signed Harper. Soto makes the team more competitive but he doesn’t put fans in the seats for playing to capacity crowds at home. Even if there is “Yamamoto money” ($325M with a $27 M AAV) lying around, that doesn’t start a serious discussion for Soto.

    I agree with Jim on the priority needs == starting and relief pitching and a right-handed bat for the OF. I don’t agree the Phils will show no interest in Turnbull, depending on the medicals. His $2 M contract in 2024 wasn’t a waste.

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Wow, Jim, thanks for this post! Great work!

    If I’m the Phils I sign Soto at $45M per year, dump Casty (yes, probably need to send a mid-level prospect with him) for a bag of balls — a DH on a 2 year/$20M per year contract should find a taker — so that is a net add of $25M. So, all in for a WS title in 2025. And then I let payroll bleed down over the next few years with respect to JT, Schwarber, etc. At some point, the pharm needs to produce first-division regulars . . .

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  7. Jim – appreciate the timely offseason post!

    1. Agreed, but where do you see Painter? In the SR on an innings limit, an opener, or in the pen? My money is on the opener.

    3. Is McGarry turning a corner? Technically… can a returned to form Alvarado be counted as 1? Or are they already counting on him as a high leverage arm? If not, im thinking he’s trade bait.

    6. Kemp is looking nice… if options are important… im thinking Kemp may make Marsh expendablem, if he keeps up his AFL numbers . Im sure he can be a better LF than Schwarber . Interesting development.

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    1. Kemp……has rarely played in the OF…which is a surprise to me….9 games in over 430 games played from college onward. But maybe they ought to try him out there this season coming.

      And when he does get his call to the majors….hope he asks for number ’00’

      Liked by 1 person

    2. The Phillies will continue to bring Painter slowly. No chance he is on the opening day roster. Depending on how many innings they think they can realistically expect to get from him, he comes up in June or July. They’ll still monitor his innings closely either as part of a six-man rotation or with short starts like the White Sox did with Crochet this season.

      McGarry will likely be added to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. I don’t think they will have enough faith in him to start the season with him in the bullpen. I think they’ll feel better bringing him up after he proves himself at Triple-A and when he is needed. I believe they will fill their bullpen vacancies from free agency or trades. I can’t see Dombrowski trusting any of our young arms over veteran relievers. Jury is still out on Alvarado. I don’t think there are very many players who DD wouldn’t trade if he thought the net result would be improvement.

      Kemp is a nice player, but I think expectations are getting way out of whack. He’ll be invited to ST and maybe contend for a bench spot, maybe. No way he starts the season in the starting lineup. In fact, I wouldn’t even expect him to start the season on the bench as long as Sosa is on the roster. And even if they move on from Sosa, I would expect them to acquire a veteran for the bench.

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      1. Man those EV #’s tho.. ho boy i hope it can find a way to work as that crack off the bat will echo beautifully in august at the bank.. drool

        The trout stuff is just that, fishing, it’s on him.. this is home. does he want to end his time as ball player playing ball or hanging out at eagles games.. his choice.. he wants to ball out.. come home man, let’s do it and win it… you know dave and john will find a way if he wants it

        i don’t give sanchez up, love his changeup.. think he can do what cole did especially with some more time around zach and learning the art to his gift

        thank you very much for the vast treasture trove of information and spiderweb to weave my mind through as the winter weather gathers us around the hot stove

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  8. Note that ESPN projected which teams will sign Juan Soto (and for how much) and the Phillies were NOT mentioned at all. It’s really coming down to either the Yankees or the Mets.

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  9. Mets signed RHP Dylan Covey right out from under the Phillies…how dare they!

    Teams are not wasting any time…Braves traded Soler to Halos for RHP Canning. They will need insurance for Strider until he comes back.

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  10. How do the Braves do it? They unload Soler’s big contract and get a decent starting pitcher in return. Not great but a decent pitcher. Shows, though, that there might be takers for Castellanos. White Sox pass on Moncado’s option. Maybe Castellanos goes in a package to get Crochet.

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      1. The White Sox said no to a five-player deal for Crochet at the deadline. I don’t remember the exact trade that the White Sox turned down. One of the curses of getting older. But it was something like this. Three of our top prospects, one of our starting pitchers, and one of our starting position players.

        Now I don’t mean the top three but rather three of our top eight to ten prospects. Our top ten last July did not include Nori and Burkholder. It did include De La Cruz and Rincones. So, excluding Painter who was definitely not included, that would be three from among Miller, Crawford, Caba, Tait, Abel, Saltiban, Rincon, CDLC, Rincones. Pick three. Not three you wouldn’t mind trading, but three that make you say ouch.

        Add one of our rotation pitchers. Can’t be Wheeler or Nola, they have NTCs I believe and are too expensive for the Sox. Wouldn’t have been Walker or Turnbull, either. So, one of Saurez (10-5, 2.87, IL on 7/27 back spasms) or Sanchez (7-7, 3.36, 4 yr/$22.5M with 2 option years). I think I started sweating this before the 27th, so either of the young pitchers could have been in the package.

        And one of our young position players. We can rule out half the starters and the bench. So, one of Stott, Bohm, Rojas, Marsh.

        Since a major league pitcher is included, I would not think Abel would be included. I would also rule out a trade that included both Miller and Crawford. If Marsh or Rojas then Crawford is not likely, to me. If Stott or Bohm, Miller seems less likely. I don’t think Saltiban, Rincon, CDLC move the needle. Maybe Rincones but he doesn’t make me say ouch. That would shake out to one of these eight possibilities, maybe –

        Miller, Caba, Tait, Saurez, Marsh
        Miller, Caba, Tait, Saurez, Rojas
        Miller, Caba, Tait, Sanchez, Marsh
        Miller, Caba, Tait, Sanchez, Rojas
        Crawford, Caba, Tait, Saurez, Stott
        Crawford, Caba, Tait, Saurez, Bohm
        Crawford, Caba, Tait, Sanchez, Stott
        Crawford, Caba, Tait, Sanchez, Bohm

        Now, I don’t remember the exact deal. These all look like too much to me. So, if one of these is right, I can’t believe that it wouldn’t be enough for Crochet.

        Liked by 1 person

  12. I understand going after Crochet because I think he’s legit, but you can’t bankrupt your farm system like that.

    The Phillies have 5 starters (years left in parentheses) locked in for 2025:

    Nola(6), Sanchez(4), Wheeler(3), Walker(2), Suarez(1).

    Even though he won’t be able to pitch a full load, Painter will need an opportunity very soon. Not sure how aggressive the Phillies will be with Eiberson Castellano. Castellano will be 24 in May and he could certainly start the season at Lehigh if the Phillies think he’s ready.

    Johnson, Phillips, Abel are still at AAA. There’s some decent depth here.

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    1. So the Phillies definitely need a starter, because they have four starters locked in for 2025 who they trust to pitch innings. Walker is the long man in the pen for blowouts.

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      1. Walker would be the most expensive long man in history. If he doesn’t show anything in ST, he’s not making the team.

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        1. walker needs to walk and should be added to “sunk” cost… i’d rather watch stubbs throw batting practice in mop up innings of blow out loses… dudes done and has been for a long time… dfa

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      2. Walker will get the chance in ST to show improved velocity and performance. If that doesn’t happen, he will most likely be released/traded with the Phillies eating most of the remaining contract.

        At best, he makes it through April but the Phillies will not be counting on him being their 5th starter for the 2025 season.

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        1. Preston M. had some encouraging words on Abel and on his back end of the second half of the season. Maybe he is able to step it up. I saw something like that with Mackenzie Gore when he was 22-years old as a Padre, the next season he seem to find himself early on and then the Padres traded him to the Nats.

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  13. Crochet had a value at the trade deadline — when trades were the only way to improve a pitching staff — that he doesn’t have now. You can’t say he’s a proven ace or shown that he can handle the innings load of a top of the rotation starter. There are (older) options available in free agency to a team willing to spend.

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  14. I hope management isn’t considering Jack Flaherty. I saw him pitch for the Orioles versus the Sox at Fenway at the end of the ’23 season. He got pounded just as he did his last outing of the WS. He had a good year for most of ’24 but I think he has reverted back to the ’23 ways. He’ll get a contract (as Walker did with the Phillies) but I hope it’s not for the boys in red pin stripes.

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    1. I am so happy for Romus, Today he was one of three new minority owners of Phillies. Your hard work payed off m8

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      1. Do you know if he had to mortgage the S.S. Minnow to put up all the cash reserve that was required or whether JM just did it on membership in the WOG club.

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        2. oldruff, that particular 3 letter term for a club could get you in a fight in some quarters of Great Britain back in the day. Makes me a little uncomfortable reading it. I assume the use was innocent as you seem a good fellow.

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            1. oldruff, forget my comment. n a different place and in a different time it had a different meaning.

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  15. Let the trading begin…Scott Kingery to the Phillies fav trading partner, Angels, for $$$$…..Scott gets now to go to spring training near his hometown in the Arizona desert.

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    2. Thanks Rocco. Oldruff and I thought we were your friends as well. I guess not. Congrats though on the horse. Maybe you can drive up and see me now sometime from Louisville. Only a couple hours north. It would be great to meet you sometime. You could even bring Romus.

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      1. Don…Breeders was run in Cali this year….Del Mar north of San Diego. That was rocco’s play. You may be thinking of Churchill Downs , the Derby in Louisville KY, runs in May.

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        1. I think Romus he was there at something else in the Summer at Louisville. His post would still be in my archives somewhere.

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  17. Romus. I knew the Breeder’s Cup was not at Churchill Downs. I saw bits of it. I am a farm kid. Last summer when Rocco was in Louisville, he asked how far I was away from there. I would like to meet up with any of you some time. I am sure I will never get back to the Philly area. My only visit in Clearwater was the spring of 73 when of course the players were on strike. My issue is if it was 73 or 74. My fiancé/wife was with me, and we got married in June of 73. I know it was Spring Break at college. I do remember all the pad locks on the gates to the fields. So, we went to the beach instead. If cell phones had existed, then I would have pics. Oh well. I am going back to Disney next winter.

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  18. Jimmy consider my mind blown again with the depth and breadth to which you compile and they convey this information to us. Many thanks.

    My only opinion is very general in nature. Trade anyone you can from the 26 man 2-3 of them if necessary and acquire back pieces that will help you begin the next era.

    You’re just not going to run this group back and win a WS

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  19. Romus ……….. aside from Painter, do we have anyone in the AFL doing anything good or are we just MEH.

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    1. Skeet…..Otto Kemp is having an all-star selection year….also small samplings but a few of the releivers we sent are having good years….even Griff McGarry is doing well….but all are very small samplings right now.

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  20. i want players to get paid. But sometimes, like cole at 34. Optioning out of his contract, with 4 yrs left. To get a age 39.fifth yr. Is to me nuts. Yankees have to pay him but it’s wrong.

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    2. I agree that I want to get paid. And it stinks when your team has to overpay for a veteran. But hopefully these “bad contracts” just get so out of hand that they re-vamp the system and pay players what they’re worth from the start.I know it’ll never happen, but that would be great.

      Liked by 1 person

    3. If the Yankees don’t think Cole was worth the money then this is a great opportunity for them to get out of the contract. I have zero sympathy for them.

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  21. i am really on the fence with the Phillies, letting Hoffman walk. I know he was terrible in playoffs. But I thought during the season he was really good.

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    1. rocco……maybe the price is not right for what the Phillies want to pay him…projected $11M AAV for three years…I just don’t know. Estevez does get projected cheaper at $9MAAV over three years. But will see where the Phillies go.

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    4. Rocco. Just my opinion and I have mentioned it before. Hoffman was good. I do not think he will ever be THE guy out of the bullpen. I think that is what the Phillies had hoped he would become. Maybe he will. I just do not see the makeup of that guy. I hope the best for him.

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  22. Phils best chance for Soto I think would be a 1-year deal for $60 M with X number of player annual renewals at that amount and X number of team option buyouts at $15M.

    Phils aren’t stuck on a long term deal and gradually $60 M becomes the new $50 M. Soto gets paid with flexibility to move at a time of his choosing. Phils position well for a WS in 2025 and offer an environment in which Soto might choose to remain a while. The deal hurts the Phils the most on the front end and gets manageable as other players’ contracts come off the books. Phils presumably aren’t paying Soto top dollars in his declining years.

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      1. if he’s in line for $700 M you’re probably right. I (and MLBTR) don’t see it. Last winter’s story line was “the Boras 4” guys who over-estimated their respective markets. It’s hard to predict with Boras clients, Gerrit Cole case in point.

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  23. Rodolfo Castro, Yunior Marte, Kolby Allard, Luis Ortiz, Freddy Tarnok have all elected FA.

    Phillies acquired Devin Sweet and claimed John McMillon.

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      1. Phillies liked him and thought he could help. They were wrong. Most deals like this fail anyways. Life goes on.

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  24. So the Yankees declined to add the extra year to Cole’s contract after he opted out. Unbelievably, Cole decided to remain with the Yankees for the remainder of his 4/144 deal. So it’s as if Cole didn’t exercise his opt out.

    I don’t know what I’m more surprised about, that the Yankees declined the extra year or that Cole (a Boras client) decided to fulfill his remaining contract and not test FA.

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  26. Very good accomplishment for Keaton Anthony…was awarded the MiLB Gold Glove for first base. This is quite a noteworthy achievement since the other 8 award winners are either on MLB’s top 100 prospects list or on their own respective MLB affiliates top 25 prospect list. Anthony is neither….and also was a UDFA. Congrats to him.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Landing Keaton Anthony and Otto Kemp as UDFAs and having them both become big league prospects is an enormous achievement by our scouting department. Kudos to them!

      Liked by 1 person

    2. I am a big fan of Keaton. Not a sexy name because he wasn’t drafted. But I seem him as a player similar to Rhys. I think that he will have a very productive MLB career.

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  27. Hard to believe and very sad to believe that we have gotten to the point that athletes in MLB, NBA, and NFL (quarterbacks) are earning $50-60-70 M a year. No problem. The fans will pick up the cost anyway.

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    1. It’s odd, and unfathomable in someways… but in terms of business it makes sense. These players “technically” serve are tremendous amount of people. Think about it this way. $1 for every game you watch. How many people are in the greater Philadelphia area? I get it, it’s still freaking nuts, but when you have more customers, you get more money. I think ultimately it would be nice to change this up in a way the fans benefit more, and the minor league players benefit more. No real reason imo for the minor leaguers to slum it.

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  28. Lots of national projections that we’ll sign Tanner Scott as our closer and bringing Hoffman back for the 8th inning. I would be very happy with that. I think they’ll talk to Santander also but Soto is not coming here. They’ll definitely talk to the White Sox about Crochet and Robert but I don’t think anything will happen.

    Liked by 1 person

  29. I look at Trea Turner as the key to whether Aidan Miller survives the trading season. If DD & his Minions feel that Trea is entrenched at SS for the future …. and don’t see a position change ……. sayonora! Yeah, I know …. move Bohn slot Miller, but that would bring a veteran 3rd basemen, I think.

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    1. Skeet….I like to see the team try to infuse younger players into the mix, like Crawford and Miller and maybe Tait in 3 years or so, to the starting line-up. Granted that does not always turn out as expected, e.g. Dom Brown, but it should be first tried.

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      1. I don’t disagree with you as I really like the infusion of “new” blood to keep a viable and competitive product on the field and the engine running.

        Unfortunately, DD likes to wheel and deal and his history as you know, often gives up young, raw talent for veteran pieces that are planeing or digressing ……. in fact we have a few examples of that. Hope that isn’t the case, but I don’t have a warm cozy feeling about that event not being exercised.

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        1. Yeah that is the fear most of us have with Dombrowski. Though I remember what Middleton said when he hired Klentak back in 2015…he does not want a GM to win the next season, but also 5 years from now. So perhaps they will hold the limit on trading away top tier prospects.

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          1. I’m curious when DD loses his reputation as the scourge of farm systems.

            We’re going into year 5 with him at the helm, and the only top tier prospect (at time of trade) he’s traded has been Mead. And that was for Sanchez, so not exactly a “top prospect for aging star” move.

            We’ve traded far too many interesting prospects for relievers for my liking, but it’s pretty evident that DD isn’t interested in mortgaging the farm.

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            1. Dan……Klentak traded Mead-Nov 2019……Dombrowski did trade O’Hoppe. Then there were the complaints about the Robertson trade from the Cubs for RHP Ben Brown. But agree…..he so farr has no interest in mortgaging the farm for immediate gains.

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            2. Good points on the prospect’s guys. It is so hard to make the right call on this guy or that guy in so many cases. Romus. Good point on Dom Brown. He was like a can’t miss until he did. I remember Bill Polian of the Colts saying in you can hit on around 50% of your draft picks you are lucky. Projecting a player just has so many variables. I kind of agree with all of you that I hope they keep these top guys and see what they can do for the Phillies in the near future. No doubt some changes are needed probably sooner than later.

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            3. Totally agree, and in fact some criticism of Dave this year was not making moves at deadline / stripping some Farm talent away.

              There needs to be changes to this lineup. Frankly I think we / fans may have a higher valuation of this talent then the market.

              I also think we need to get some versatility in lineup. Find Whit Merrifield in his prime.

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  31. @Romus, right sorry. O’Hoppe was the one I meant. I went back to look at the transactions and I saw Mead last before I closed that tab so he was stuck in my head.

    But yeah, O’Hoppe for Marsh is still a prospect for young, potential cornerstone trade (regardless of how we may feel about Marsh now).

    I’m also one that did not like trading Ben Brown. But he was objectively not in our top tier of prospects, so.

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  32. Just an FYI – I’ve known this for a couple weeks but today Matt Gelb let it out so I will share with ya all here. RHP Wen Hui Pan will have TJ surgery and miss the 2025 season. He’s been working with the rehab team here in Clearwater – did not report to the AFL.

    Steve Potter

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    1. Yeah, I’ve been sitting on this too. I’ve been at all of the high-performance workouts since they started three weeks ago. Pan has been here all along working out with a small rehab group (7-8 players). So, when I saw questions in the comments about Pan and the AFL, I just ignored them. I didn’t know if his absence was temporary or permanent. I didn’t learn of his upcoming TJ surgery until a couple days ago.

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      1. Ouch that is a killer. For a couple of seasons now I’ve had high hopes for Pan as a somewhat under the radar guy that could make the jump to the MLB for us…

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        1. DMAR…..interestingly, Pan is due back pitching in 2026….and that will be the year his Rule 5 eligibility kicks in. So Phillies will need to make a decision on whether or not he goes on the 40 or not.

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  33. Todd Zolecki has an article up outlining Soto’s impact on the Phillies payroll. Notes: 281m payroll, Soto pushes it to 428m due to CBT penalty tiers

    To get Soto, you gotta subtract, and possible admit a step back this year.

    GM hats:

    Add:

    Soto:45mil, Crochet (2mil p/yr – Caba,Tait,Ranger), add Scott and Yates

    Subtract

    Ranger, Castellanos, Alvarado, Sosa, and technically no Hoffman/Estvez.

    Team payroll has a say. Ultimately, the Walker contract is such dead money at this point it likely has cost you Soto or resigning Ranger. For that reason, I trade Ranger.

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    1. Middleton’s comments to Gelb on the luxury tax and adhering to it and its purpose is interesting in that Middleton could be hesitant on breaking it, especially for too long a period of time..

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  34. Middleton mentioned to Gelb……’players chase too much’…they must change that……IMO certain ones may be on the move. I like Marsh, but he is leads the list in K rate @ 32%, so he is one that needs to be more disciplined.

    Like

    1. I didn’t see that. Yeah… Marsh is likely on the chopping block with that info. Only hesitant to add him since he is inexpensive still, maybe he changes. Also debated about putting Bohm on this list. Too soon to move him to make room for Aidan Miller. Plus, he may breakout IMO this year,HR wise.

      The team is in some heavy fine zones… and they gotta ask do we have more top tier chances adding/tweaking to the current core, or taking a step back to retool with Soto & resetting the penalties. I’d argue… Yes, if you believe you have players in Painter, Crawford, Miller, and Kemp. They seem to be a year out or less.
      Even with retooling, I’d argue you’d have a great chance with Wheeler, Crochet, Nola, and Sanchez and Painter as an opener in the playoffs. Just gotta piece the Pen together as usual, and get the most out of Turner, Harper, Soto, Stott, and Realmuto.

      Im still trying to register how a seemingly perfect 1st half team just crapped out. It’s as if they really knew they missed the 2023 WS Chance. Nuts.

      Like

      1. Tac. They did miss the 23 WS chance. They gave it to the Dbacks on a Silver Platter. One win in 2 games was all that was needed. They blew it. No way to sugar coat it.

        Like

  35. Romus and Dan bring up a good point. I think the Ben Brown trade is the one that will come back and bite the hardest.

    Like

  37. I have to tell you, I’m pretty down on this team. The starting pitching is really quite good and bullpens come and go every year and their is generally okay to good.

    But this line-up is a problem. They are aging, they aren’t disciplined and they are as streaky as can be. They need to do something dramatic there and shake it up.

    The owners wants them to become more disciplined. Good luck with that. Walk and K rates don’t vary very much. It’s not a desire issue, it’s a talent issue. The way you deal with this is don’t sign FAs who chase. DD in my view, has some very questionable talent evaluation skills.

    Liked by 1 person

        1. I didn’t say he is a bad GM, I said he has some questionable talent evaluation skills and stand by that. How about that brilliant Taijuan Walker signing or the Castellanos signing? You thought he did a good job with those? That was him and he bled the Tigers dry and also the Red Sox. He does a lot well, but is often at his worst with free agent deals.

          Like

          1. Yep, sure he didn’t get any input from teams scouts, play devopment staff, coaches, etc. before signing players.

            How about bringing in Schwarber, Hoffman, rebuilding the player development operations, etc.

            Guy is going to be a HOF executive but yes, over decades, some mistakes will be made.

            Like

            1. No – none of those players were unknown commodities – he was the guy who made the final assessments and pulled the trigger on those deals. The Turner deal was also far too long – not a good contract and could have a 4 to 5 dead years at the end. That’s a LOT of dead years.

              He’s a good GM, fine roster builder and has done some very good things but he’s not an elite GM. He has a horrible habit of burying teams in bloated bad contracts that can tie a franchise’s hands for years. So let’s see how he does and if he can maneuver well this off-season. If he can – I’ll be the first one to applaud him.

              Like

            2. Agree with Catch that the Turner contract is a bad contract, about 5 years too long. Who gets credit for Walker ……. DD or Fuld?

              Like

            3. DD made it crystal clear when he joined that he makes the final decisions on pretty much everything. I view DD to be the biggest danger when you stuff a lot of money in his pocket.

              He is very good at below-the-radar trades. The trade for Johnson and Chace for Gregory Soto was fantastic. He also has identified a much better group of people to select draft picks and develop young players. He totally gets credit for that.

              Like

  38. Phillies CEO and Bryn Mawr resident John Middleton recently announced that two Montgomery County executives would join the team’s ownership group. The Phillies welcome Mitchell L. Morgan and Guntram J. Weissenberger Jr. Morgan is the founder, chairman, and CEO of Morgan Properties, a leading real estate investment management firm based in Conshohocken. Morgan Properties is the nation’s largest private multifamily property owner and third-largest apartment owner in the country. Their portfolio has of over 96K units in over 350 communities across 19 states. Weissenberger is president of King of Prussia-based Westover Companies. Founded in 1965, the firm owns approximately 15K apartments in over 70 communities in six states.

    Like

  40. Jim, not sure where to post this question, but with the aftermath of the hurricanes, would you recommend a first-time spring training visit this coming spring, or wait until a later year? Just wondering how extensive the impact will be on hotels, golf courses, restaurants, etc.

    Thanks!

    Like

    1. Tourism is important to Clearwater. I fully expect the Clearwater to be ready for spring training. The beaches took a major hit, I don’t know how they will be. But, I don’t go to the beach in February and March. Restaurants are open. I’ve driven past active golf courses.

      The Complex may be a different story. The fields are in excellent shape. They fall under the responsibility of the Phillies staff, and they do a great job. The fields were under water after Milton. Water did not get into the ground floors of the Complex buildings although there was some slight rainwater damage on the second floor that has already been addressed.

      The stadium field is also in great shape. There was water damage to the lower levels of the stadium where the clubhouses, other baseball facilities, and storage are located. The water damage has been addressed. However, planned improvements to the stadium are in jeopardy like a new scoreboard.

      I don’t know about any specific damage to the stadium, but each day I go to the Complex, I can see an outfield fence is down and that the mesh on the fences and batter’s eyes is shredded. I expect they will be fixed before Phantasy Camp (maybe) or Spring Training (almost certainly). The fields are the responsibility of the Phillies staff. Repairs to the stadium and Complex have been the responsibility of the city. The city has other more important damage to address at this time. But I expect them to soon prioritize tourism (and money generating) destinations.

      When I learn anything specific, I’ll be sure to post it.

      Like

    1. How about we give them our whole OF – Marsh, Rojas, and Castellanos? 🙂 In all seriousness, I’m guessing they wouldn’t have much interest in Rojas since he’s a question mark offensively, and Bohm might not really fit their timeline very well. I could see Marsh being of interest, but based on what Jim said above, it’s going to take ALOT so I’m guessing that would take Miller plus Crawford to start, plus maybe Marsh and more prospects. I can’t imagine offering any more than what was offered at the deadline.

      Like

      1. What ever happens, I think Marsh is headed somewhere this off-season. When Middleton specifically mentioned the issue of ‘players chasing’, Marsh just happens to be one that has all the positive peripheral value going for him….age, contract, good character, and does have ability. Most of the other big ‘chasers’ in the lineup are staying put because of contracts or leadership value (JTR/Schwarber) and/or also little return value (Rojas/Casty).

        Like

        1. rocco……Ranger and Crochet both become free agents soon…Ranger after ’25 and Crochet after ’26……they may not want Ranger if he is offered. The WSox though will need to make changes…a 41 win team cannot stand pat. Mick Abel could be a name that could be offered to them. Though, flashback of Gavin Floyd and Gio G.. for Freddy Garcia, almost 20 years ago, comes to my mind…ouch.

          But I am with you…..do not trade Miller and Crawford.

          Like

      3. Buddy, actually Chicago is a perfect landing spot for Rojas. Most second division teams would have a spot for the defensive improvement he would bring to their outfield. (Calling Chicago a second division team does seem generous.) Their counteroffer was ridiculous, but it did include Rojas in whom they do have interest. Remember, my suppositions above were based on a faulty memory. It has occurred to me that the deal may have included another player, probably Robert in whom the Phillies had interest at the time.

        Like

  42. I just read an article that says Soto may be interested in the Phillies. He wants to stay on East Coast. That would put Yankees, Mets, and possibly Phillies in play. Mentions his fondness for Harper and Turner. Anyway, just thought I would mention. I know some here would like to see Soto in red pinstripes.

    Like

    1. Seems to me we could have saved a great deal of trouble if we just would have swapped teams with the Nationals!🤔

      Like

    2. Don, if you don’t mind could you provide the link or source the article? I’d be curious to read such an informed writer. Seriously, I don’t know why the local and national media have been excluding the Phillies from the Soto Derby. I’ve read several articles that say the Phillies will NOT be in the race but then outline the needs they must address and the best player to meet those needs is Soto. Of course, they will be in on Soto. How do I know? Because Dombrowski would like everyone to believe they are not. We’ve seen that money doesn’t matter. They’ve increased spending each of the past four years breaking the hallowed “cap” each year. Some articles have listed up to 12 teams expected to be in on Soto and the Phillies haven’t been one of them. In a month or so, if the Phillies haven’t been outed as in on Soto, every writer will make reference to an unnamed dark horse in the Soto Stakes. That dark horse will be the Phillies.

      Like

      1. Jim. When I got on earlier it was just one of the many little captions on my screen. I just opened and read the article. I did not pay attention to who it was. Maybe it could have been someone with Nats or Dodgers connections. It referenced his preference to stay on the East Coast. So, they discounted Dodgers some. I will continue to look and let you know if it appears again. I am sorry I did not pay attention to author. I have just looked again, and I cannot find it. This time Sporting New and Peter Chawaga has one on Santander going to Philly.

        Like

    1. Rocco ……. the anonymous one was me ……. you spilled the beans …….. thankfully I had the minority share, only had to relinquish my shares of stock in “Popeye Lunch Buckets”, it was time to liquidate that anyhow, so it was a win/win for me.😎

      Like

    2. LOL…..$3B worth….. three new investors, including Mitchell Morgan and Guntram Weissenberger Jr.,and one who wants to remain unknown…..“It came down to broadening the base of investors or retaining our interest,” Middleton said on Friday. “That’s exactly what it was. We decided that for the long-term best interest of the Phillies…”

      Like

  44. Jim. I will look again later. Only thing I can find right now is one that MLB Insiders predict Phillies to land Scott and Santander.

    Like

  45. I would go all in on Sasaki. Give him the same offer as Yamamoto. I would rather over pay in dollars for Sasaki than overpay in prospects (and then ultimately dollars to extend him) for Crochet.

    Like

    1. If we get Sasaki that frees us up to be aggressive with trading either Sanchez or Ranger. For example, I wonder if the Cardinals would trade Donovan for Ranger + Rojas?

      Donovan is exactly the type of player we should go after. Cards would only trade him for MLB players. But getting a great defensive replacement in Rojas plus a #3 starter should be enough.

      Like

    3. We can’t offer Sasaki the Yamamoto deal; Yamamoto was a free agent, Sasaki is being posted.

      Unfortunately we can only be one of many (all?) teams to offer him the same amount of money, so we’d have to wow him some other way. But this screams of another Japanese player joining the Dodgers to team up with Shohei.

      Like

      1. Should have said similar amount of money instead of same, because it’s tied to international bonus pools. But regardless of who signs him, it’s going to be a pittance. I believe the highest possible theoretical amount is something like $13M. And that’s only possible if one of the teams with largest pool trades for as much more of it as they possibly can. So he’s likely going to get less than $10M.

        Like

  46. I saw this morning one prediction that the Phillies trade for Williams and the Braves land Hellsley.

    Romus. Just watched ESPN Game Day picks. Hoosier Schwarber has the best record of guest pickers at 8-1. Today they had NIL queen Livvy Dunne and Paul Skenes. Either Skenes is really big, or Dunne is really small in stature. Believe both are true. Livvy may make more than Skenes does at this time.

    Like

    1. Dunne isn’t particularly small. She’s actually pretty tall for a female gymnast; she’s listed at 5’6″. But yes, Skenes is a giant. 6’6″, so a full foot difference in their heights.

      For reference, Simone Biles is 4’8″, Jordan Chiles is 4’11”, and Sunisa Lee is 5′ even.

      Like

      1. I had seen them together a few other times. The ESPN gal was speaking to them as they walked up to the guys on set. If she is 5’6″ the ESPN gal was taller by some. Sure, seemed like more than a foot difference in size. I know most gymnasts are small. But Skenes is really big. He looked more like a tall lean basketball player today out of the Pirates uniform.

        Like

  47. Jim. This is not the article I saw yesterday but some of the same points on Phillies pursuing Soto. SI article by Nick Ziegler.

    Four reasons. Harper Deal. Outfield Help. Arms Race with Dodgers. Phillies built to win now and see Dodgers as biggest threat.

    Like

    1. Don……here is more on the subject:

      Jorge Castillo of ESPN spoke about how Washington would love a reunion with their former superstar.  “The Mets are viewed as the Yankees’ stiffest challenge for Soto’s services, but other teams loom. The Dodgers, Phillies and Blue Jays are expected to at least try. The Nationals would love a reunion. The Giants and Cubs could use a franchise cornerstone. Soto is keeping all doors open. He met every expectation — and then some — in the Bronx, but a return is no guarantee.”

      Like

      1. Romus. Cannot believe I paid no attention to who had the article yesterday. But I think it had many good points. If correct that Soto wants to stay on East Coast there really are only a few teams that really fit. I did see the Nats interest. Plus, I think every other article that shows up when I get on each time has been repeated. Just my luck. One thing caught my attention on the one today. It spoke of Soto and Casty together in the outfield. Can Soto play LF or CF effectively if that were to happen?

        Like

        1. Hoosier Don …….. for 500 – 700 mil, Soto should be able to play LF & CF both, ……..and at the same time!

          Like

          1. oldruff. For that much money maybe Soto can play all 3 outfield positions. That sure would bring the AAV value down for the contract.

            Like

  48. Roki Sasaki will be posted this off-season for what likely will be $13 M or less. He’s 23 yo. He’ll be a great add for someone with all 30 MLB teams in play. Big spending teams won’t have an inherent advantage.

    I don’t think the Phils will do a big deal this off-season but if they did ….

    Sign Alex Bregman , who has indicated he has position flexibility. Then …

    to the Phils – Garrett Crochet

    to the White Sox – Bryson Stott, Keaton Anthony, Starlyn Caba, Gabriel Rincones, Taijuan Walker

    Too much? Too little? ChiSox reportedly want position players. No deal if they don’t take the Walker contract, making Bregman more affordable.

    Like

    1. Signing Bregman will be a HUGE mistake. He will soon become an average player being paid like a star (another DD special). Pray hard we don’t sign him.

      Like

      1. I know it’s your point of view but Bregman is a 4.6, 4.9, 4.1 or 13.6 WAR over the last 3 seasons. Harper, by contrast is 11 WAR. Bregman, who turns 31 before next season starts was a Gold Glove this year and has a good recent health history. Plus, on a team that’s won nothing lately, Bregman’s been a leader on a team that’s been a winner. If you’re looking to upgrade, why not with a winner?

        Houston seems to be in the throes of a decision on whether they can afford to keep both Bregman and a younger Kyle Tucker, whose deal is up after the 2025 season.

        Maybe our area of slight agreement is that the Phils should not be offering a super-lengthy contract. But there are a lot of ways he can be useful on a 4-year deal with an AAV under Harper’s. If the Phils’ window for winning is now, it’s the kind of deal you make.

        Like

        1. Id be more willing to consider Bragman, but … I’m shooting from the hip.. I doubt he’d go 4 years. He most likely if looking at min 6, and I’d bet is asking for 8. This is what is wrong with baseball. To get a good player you gotta over pay in terms of money & years. The years are more harmful than the money

          Liked by 1 person

          1. It starts with the Astros. If they want to run it back with Bregman, he probably stays. Otherwise, the Phils are as well-positioned as any team and better positioned than most. Dodgers and Braves don’t have Boras clients. Tigers are sniffing but their budget is limited.

            Other big market teams seem focused elsewhere. A lot of activity taking place on Soto involving New York franchises. There will be pressure on teams seeking to compete with them.

            Like

        2. His offense has slowly eroded and he’s at the age where his defense is likely to decline quickly too. He will want some ridiculous contract that is like 7 or 8 years long when he already a declining player. If they do this, they will be so locked in on long-term contracts with dead years that it will be so hard for us to dig out. Let Bohm finish out, replace him with Miller next year and put the money elsewhere. A Bregman contract will, in short order, look like the Trea Turner contract, which isn’t very good. I am sooooo against this.

          Like

          1. it’s legitimate concerns,on the aging of players. There a some players who have defied the odds. Franco comes to mind. JD Martinez is a current one (that likely just expired).

            The baseball world is acting like age doesn’t matter the way it used to, much like TJ surgery doesn’t scare off signing pitchers anymore. Harper is saying he can play into his 40s. Is he the Tom Brady of Baseball? Turner is signed very late as well… if sports medicine, strength training programs, and nutrition plans aren’t gong to push the expiration dates back on these players… a lot of teams are in for a world of hurt. We are going to see a good example with Wheeler coming up here in the next few years. Fingers crossed.

            Like

          2. There is no perfect solution available to improving the daily lineup.

            Free agency and trades involve compromise. If the Astros felt Bregman deserved a 7-8 year, they would have given him that by now and he would have taken it. He’s not the declining resource you claim him to be — any more than Harper is. Or any player not coming off his best year.

            Your argument is basically against free agency since Soto alone is the player reaching free agency before his prime.

            Phils can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs. Soto’s not coming and the Phils don’t have obvious talent they can relinquish to upgrade themselves through a trade. Acquiring Bregman positions the Phils better to pick up a pitcher like Crochet.

            Bregman could re-sign quickly with Houston or he could languish on the market the way so many Boras clients did last off-season. The suggestion that he can’t be had for less than a 7 or 8 year deal I don’t expect to be borne out by events.

            Like

  50. Cannot see Phillies signing Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki…just do not have the international $$$ allotted.

     BA’s Ben Badler published a list of teams’ bonus allotments for the ’25 signing period…… Reds, Tigers, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, A’s, Mariners and Rays have the largest pools at $7.55M each. If one of those teams acquired another 75% via trade and devoted the entire allotment to Sasaki, his maximum signing bonus would be around $13.22MM.

    Like

    1. I always thought Sasaki would come over like Yomomato did, FA. If he did pick the Phillies it would be huge. I take it DD can’t trade feasibly trade for int’l bonus money

      Like

      1. Use to be trading for int’l money was done in increments of $250K. Would take one boat load of prospects to accumulate millions more to compete with many small market teams.

        I will put on my small market GM hat……sign Roki S…..then trade him to the Dodgers or Padres—AJ Preller is like Dombrowski -everyone likes to deal with him now……for 4 or 5 of their top prospects. Roki’s age and 6 year control, beside his super pitching skills will bring back half a team of MLB ready prospects.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. That is a plan I could get behind. Make them take Walker’s contract as well.

          Crawford, Caba, Tait, Abel, McGarry + Walker’s contract for Sasaki? Or is that too much?

          Like

          1. Sasaki has never pitched more than 130 innings in a season. There’s only so much you can pay for hope — that he can shoulder the load of a top of the rotation hurler appearing on less than the 6 days rest typical for pitchers in the NPB.

            Like

  51. Spit balling

    Sign Bregman – upgrade defense & OF

    Move Turner to OF when Miller is ready.
    Crawford to CF.

    That’s not that far off from happening. Trade Bohm & Ranger, Caba for Crochet. I’d give them more if they would take Walker’s dead money. Abel & someone else. I’m just trying to hold onto tait

    Sign 1, maybe to 2 relievers

    Turner,Harper,Bregman,Schwarber, Castellanos, Realmuto, Stott, Marsh, Rojas

    that’s 6 batters with 25-30hrs in a row.
    adding Santander with Marsh could be nice but I’m guessing that just crushes the CBT. Trading

    Like

    1. By the way, I’m not against moving Turner to the outfield in the next couple of years. I think he’ll be a better left fielder than a SS.

      Liked by 2 people

      1. I think that is the Phillies plan. I am sure that Miller will get some reps at 3B this season but I think that they still hope that he can play SS in majors and they can move Turner to OF.

        Like

  52. one thing on Soto… he is a butcher in the field. I think he is worse than castellanos from when I saw him in SD. He is somewhere in between Schwarber & Castellanos. His bat is elite but that Defense is atrocious.

    Like

      1. Romus – I can see why he got 0.0… I just watched his 2023 defensive highlights, he was in LF for SD. The only thing saving him from negative rating is his arm. His range leaves something to be desired. A lot of hit balls he is sliding/diving for that Marsh would be getting on the run. I don’t want to rag on him, but not sure if it’s his read on the ball, 1st step, or hes just gotten slower. Gold Glove my – – -!

        Castellanos, worst in the NL at -7.8. Maybe i didn;’t watch enough games this year but i don’t see much of a difference other than the arm.

        Like

        1. Soto did play half his games in short-porch Yankee Stadium…if he played in the expansive Coors Field outfield his rating would have really suffered.

          Castellanos’ defense has been regularly autopsied here the last 6 months. He is what he is…good glove, adequate arm, poor reads, and hope for Rojas.

          Like

    2. If that is true, is it proof that you only need to hit in the majors to make the big bucks (500 – 700 mil), all other defensive skills, not important.

      Like

      1. Oldruff, I’ve been dogging Soto since the Phils/SD series in 2022 for his Defense. Soto made some Horrific plays in RF during that series. I don’ think it was a one off. There was a ball he miss played so badly in SD, that went it over his head while was losing his balance due to having to change directions.I think it exposed his defense. His best abilities seems to be his arm when a player tries to stretch a questionable single into a double. Even then, the slo-mo looks like the umps got the wrong call.. It’s his ability to play the ball off the wall & his arm. His range, 1st step, and read on the ball is not that much better than Castellanos. If Soto didn’t get those outs due to his arm, I gotta beleive he is in the -3.0-5.0 range. Now, I could be wrong, it’s an eye test. His value comes all from his bat, imo. Like 85%. Yankee Fans see it… John Smotlz saw it too, when comparing Mookie betts in RF to Soto. I stil want him,but it’s not for his defense.

        Like

        1. Anyone signing Soto to a deal is doing so with the knowledge that he will be a permanent DH within the next 2-3 years. His glove is bad and will only continue to get worse.

          Like

          1. Agree….but I give him his 4thyear in the OF on any LTC, his age 29 season, it may be his last in the OF. The team that signs him has to be able to see that down the road, and may over time start transitioning him to play first base before making him a likely DH for the remainder of his career. He will probably end up doing his part like Schwarber currently does.

            Like

  53. oldruff. Just hit baby! Every time I get on the computer it seems the Phillies are predicted to sign or trade for about everyone available. Williams and Crochet as trades. Soto, Santander, Scott, and Yankees closer. Forgot his name. Hope there is enough room in the clubhouse for everyone. LOL This must be why it is called the Hot Stove.

    Like

  54. phils attached to any blue jays trades/deals?..

    saw casty or his OL was chillin with Alek Manoah and signifOther.. could just be ayahuasca buddies or something idk just following some crumbs before the fire gets started

    Like

      1. I saw on instagram that Nick was hanging out with Blue Jay Alek Manoah the other day, wasn’t sure if just old friends or if there was any rumors of action going on with the Blue jays… one way or another….

        just out here following crumbs on the socials… the wives post a lot

        Like

  55. I’m not sure what type of deal either Santander or Profar get but I’d concentrate my efforts on either of those two players for LF. Santander put up 44 HRs an OPS+ of 134

    Profar 24 HRs and an OPS+ of also 134. He’d be an ideal lead off hitter. Bats Switch slashed 280/380/839 OPS

    Santander also a switch hitter would be an ideal 4 hitter to protect BH. Still leaves you a problem for LO if they are serious about not batting Kyle their any longer.

    Age 30 and 31 respectively. Landing either or both if you can somehow move Casty and his $20 million.

    Liked by 1 person

      1. Could probably make the best offer for the 32-year old Profar, 3yr/$48M deal. Have him lined up for LF.

        Move Marsh to RF and try to to move Casty….or vice versa, move Marsh-who will bring back a good deal more in a return.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. I don’t think the league would value Marsh’s K rate and then add he’s pretty much defensively a corner OF with not much power.

          If you were lucky enough to move Casty then you have to get another high OPS + Corner OF to replace him. Moving Marsh out there with no significant upgrade in CF isn’t going to help IMO.

          If all you got was Profar then LF it is and I’ll grin and bear a Marsh/Rojas Platoon in CF. Even Hays a few seasons ago played a decent enough CF.

          Like

      2. Profar is a prime regression candidate. He had the best year of his career by far in 2024 at the age of 31?

        His defense is sub-par so everything depends on a bat that was massively better in 2024 than it was any time previously. There’s a reason SD was able to sign him for $1m.

        Like

        1. What data makes you conclude that “he is a prime regression candidate”?

          His babip was only .302. Neither his 11.4% walk rate nor his 15% K rate were out of line from his recent prior seasons. He played half of his games at Petco which ranked 30th in park factors. So why do you think that coming to CBP (10th in park factors) would cause him to regress?

          Like

          1. I look at his career numbers and see he’s never posted an OPS over .800 except for the 2024 season. His slugging % was the highest by far that it’s been since his age 25 season in Texas.

            Guy had a career year in 2024. Is he going to continue to have career years in 2025, 2026, and beyond?

            Everyone bitches about Castellanos’s defense but Profar isn’t much better defensively.

            Don’t get why he would be a prime target for a team that is supposed to be aging and needing to get younger.

            Like

  56. I would not trade Aidan Miller or Painter in any deal.

    I think Crawford is very good and may be a 4+ WAR regular. But I would be willing to move him for an elite player, like Crochet. But I would not include Miller for Crochet. I really think Miller might turn out to be special.

    Like

    1. I don’t think you can get Crochet without moving Aidan Miller I think LAD gets him by putting Rushing on the table.

      Like

        1. Bowman went for $40k, people banking on his stardom pretty handily already, i’d keep em.. only so many young studs

          Like

      2. The Dodgers, with starters Ohtani, Glasnow, Yamamoto, Kershaw, Stone and Vesia under contract have been linked in the media with Sasaki, Fried and now Crochet. I’m guessing not all will fall in their lap. Crochet alone comes with a player cost for them.

        Like

    2. I would say Crochet’s stuff is elite but would stop short of calling him an elite player or even elite pitcher….yet. I don’t think he gives you IP al beit maybe one day he will but with FA coming for him after 26 I’m reluctant to give up a kid like Crawford for him.

      Sure Justin may never give you big power numbers but I think he’s as steady as they come in all other areas of his game for many many seasons to come.

      Like

  57. “Elite”should be used advisedly. Crochet’s not elite pitcher though he could turn out to be one. Crawford is not an elite prospect though he could turn into aq star MLB player. Crochet has 2 years of team control which isn’t great. If a prospect ranked with Crawford gets you Crochet, then a lot of teams will be in play. It’s the upward bidding for Crochet I anticipate that concerns me..

    Like

    1. As a 25 yo, Crochet had a 4.7 WAR, 2.69 FIP, a 12.88 K/9 with a
      2.03 BB/9. That is elite.

      His FIP was 3rd best in MLB. Hi K/9 was the best in MLB by a margin of 1.48. Sale had the second best K rate at 11.4. That’s about as elite as it gets. Crochet is definitely better than Nola. He is basically a 25 year old version of Wheeler.

      Is Crawford an elite prospect? Hmmm…maybe not elite, but pretty dang good. He is ranked 53rd best prospect by MLB. He has elite speed. And he does stuff like this in Center Field:

      https://x.com/PhilsTailgate/status/1856178249694335182

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      1. v1. I saw his last 2 starts. He was elite in those 2. I have no idea what happens going forward but I have seen the Mets mentioned in trade deals for him as well.

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      2. David Clyde, Ben MacDonald, Todd Van Poppel, Mark Prior, Matt Anderson,Brien Taylor, Paul Wilson and many more. Great prospects with varying degrees of early success including, for some, at the big league level. “Elite”? Not in my book. Same, till now, for Crochet who has shown early promise but he hasn’t shown he can handle the workload of a top of rotation starter. Is he the next A.J. Minter, confined to bullpen use?. You’re not trading for an ace, you’re trading for a #3 whom you hope, with Painter, to be future aces. Will that happen at all or before his current contract expires? None of us can say.

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      3. All that is true I am just of a different opinion of what is going to lead to a WS in the next 1-3 years and it isn’t a starting pitcher.

        For me its creating a more dynamic line-up and not that you can ever have enough good pitching but with Painter on the way I call hold your prospects.

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  58. i believe if we have to give up Crawford plus other prospects. We must sign this kid Crochet before trade is finalized but our his last two yrs

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    1. Agree rocco….signing him with John M’s money though will not be a problem. They could ink him 6 years…….his age32 season he becomes free agent. He may want a 7th year, but throw in an optional club 20% buy out in the 7th year from his AAV, and that probably would work.

      And also right now he is NOT a Boras client but CAA…which is a plus factor.

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  59. oldruff. More bad news. This morning Hot Stove had Dmitri Young on with Matty V and Leiter. Young was a big baseball card collector. One of the questions was which card was your most valuable. Answer the Roberto Clemente Rookie Card. Sold it for $450,000. He did not say year. But added that the card is now worth in the neighborhood of $20M. I knew I should have gone back and got those boxes of baseball cards. I may have had a Clemente card in the group. Nice job Hoosier Don. I even asked some of my relatives if they remembered seeing those boxes after my mom passed in 2000. They were in a closet upstairs, and they only dealt with things downstairs. Oh well.

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    2. Think about the national wealth destroyed by mothers. What kid ever threw out his baseball card collection? What kid grows up with his card collection intact? So what happened? I rest my case.

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      1. Well besides the maternal misgivings that did come with good intentions…..two other erosion features were my undoing….I flipped with the boys and lost my share , and then I clothes-pinned them to my bicycle spokes to get that cool revved sound…tore them up pretty good. Shredded Mickey Mantle I suppose.

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        1. Aside, from giving the varoom sound …….. a hammered chrome closet rod was added to the rear wheel sprocket of the bike and a “cat-tail” soaked in kerosene stuffed in the open end and lit to provide exhaust smoke! …. of course you took the fenders off and turned the handle bars upside down to get the cool look……. back to the cards though, …… many a Mickey Vernon and Duke Snider sported a mustache or a set of sideburns ……. sad, but that’s the truth … phffft.

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          1. Skeet….next time you go to CBP, stop down in the concourse…the memorabilia stand/shop….usually between home plate and third base side of the concourse. You can flip thru the binders and see all their old timer baseball cards. A buddy of mine is a collector/pack rat of sorts…filled virtually his whole house with memorabilia-needless to say he is single- and he always had to stop at that stand to see what they had….often times he would say as we paged thru them…I have that card already. I would just shake my head and say lets get a beer.

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      2. So true. I actually do not believe my mom tossed mine. But I have no idea what happened to them. I had 2 shoe boxes of baseball cards. I had 2 shoe boxes of letters I received from colleges. I know exactly where they were in the fall of 1971. I actually never really thought about them till years later. Got married shortly after returning from Mobile. So, the rest is a mystery.

        Romus. One of my friends recently when we were talking about the baseball cards mentioned that was what he did. Putting them on the bicycle tires. I wonder how many were ruined that way as well.

        One other weird thing they brought up today as they said for no reason. Mark McGuire got his first MLB hit off of Hoosier Tommy John. Tommy John dentist was Mark McGuire dad. No idea if this is true but they said it was today.

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        1. Oldruff and Hoosier Don – got a chuckle out of your baseball card journeys. The sad truth is my Mother saved mine for me and I have them all – 1950 – 1958 (some of my younger brother’s too ). Anyway most of the star cards – have been marvelous investments but when you see the $$millions mentioned – those cards were for completely pristine cards – called PSA 9’s or 10’s on a 10 point ranking system. Even when we bought the cards for a nickel a pack in the stone age the average card would only grade about a “7.” The technical manufacture of the cards left a lot to be desired – many were miscut, suffered from poor focus, and had marks from wax on them – the day we bought them. Never mind Romus using the clip pins to turn his bike into a motorcycle by having them flutter amid the spokes !!!

          The 1955 Topps Clemente card you mentioned is highly desirable in any condition but Dimitri Young – at one point in time – had all the major rookie cards of the stars in PSA 9 or 10 and his collection was widely regarded as the finest collection in the world. His Clemente was a 10- and there may only be 1 to 3 of them in existence. The price is truly because it is incredibly rare. However, if Don’s wife finally confesses she kept the cards gifted by her MIL and she has a PSA 6 it would be worth about $4-5,000.

          I still enjoy my collection and have enjoyed looking at those old cardboard visages and remember the day I bought them – and where. Oh nostalgia !! I consider myself lucky and my Mother would often remind me, “you owe me because I am the only Mother who saved them.”

          Liked by 1 person

          1. Very good story…did not know all of that about the PSAs…..a buddy of mine, every time we went to the park for a game had to make a stop down in the concourse at the memorabilia shop and page thru all the old cards and the prices they were asking….many were under $150, of MLB players…not stars however. But still fascinating to see those cards.

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    3. Yeah, very painful recalls on baseball cards …… I know I had a lot of Braves and Indians cards (oops, sorry, slip) because they were my favorite teams at the time……. probably fortunes are lying in the bottom of landfills and dumps.

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  60. Romus and others. R. J. Anderson has his predictions on CBS for the top guys. He was pretty spot on a year ago except for Matt Chapman.

    So here goes. Soto-12/600, Burnes-7/245, Bregman-6/162, Snell/Fried-5/150, Adames-7/185, Flaherty-5/125, Manea-3/70, Eovaldi-2/50, Alonso-4/115.

    Thoughts anyone. Looks like the Phillies can go after any of these. Just kidding.

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    1. Alonso could go down I95 to Wash. Nats…they have $$$ to spend. Dodgers will more than likely, lose Buehler, so they may want local kid Fried in their rotation. Most GMs have resolved themselves to believe Soto goes to Citi Field and the Mets. The NL-East will be a dogfight.

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      1. Romus. Hot Stove guys showed LA staff as Ohtani, Yamamoto, one being posted, Glasnow, May and Goslin. But Buehler is not projected. Neither is Bobby Miller. He could be available. Most have Soto to Mets. But Heyman has 2 mystery teams for Soto. One has to be the Phillies.

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          1. Heyman had Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, and Blue Jays plus 2 mystery teams. Maybe Rangers or Nats might be the 2nd. Maybe Padres.

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  61. Painter this afternoon pitched 2.2 innings, gave up 2 hits and 1 ER. He threw 53 pitches, 33 strikes, walked 2 and struck out 6.

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    1. It would be so great if come next spring Abel has turned it around, (if he is still in the Phillies org.) and Painter continues his progression…….could have two more for the rotation.

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  62. Wonder if anyone has heard about Bohm’s name being bandied around in any trade rumors? Some other sites seem to say it is……but just could be generated wishful internet blogging.

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  63. On a serious note – I would love to hear what Jim has to say about the Phillies losing Coach Brian Kaplan to AZ ???? He is often considered, along with Cothem, the reason why the Phils have such great pitching. To me – I believe this was a major loss because he along with the other experts was part of the pitching lab who has developed such hidden nuggets like Hoffman among others. I hope he can be replaced ? But have my doubts !!

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    1. One person does not make a program. The Phillies success has been from the contributions of many pitching instructors. TBH, I was more worried about Mattingly’s promotion. But Luke Merton was promoted from within. So, I choose to not worry about those things until it becomes necessary, if it becomes necessary.

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  65. Bleacher Report cites Kiley McDaniel of ESPN+ as a source for the idea that some teams this off-season are considering Jeff Hoffman as a rotation piece. I wouldn’t mind the Phils re-signing Hoffman with this thought in mind.

    A Hoffman experiment in the rotation would force the Phils to re-prioritize their bullpen needs.If Hoffman could give the Phils a right-handed version of what David Peterson gave the Mets in 2024, I’d be happy with that. If Painter kicked in the door and forced a promotion to the rotation, that’s a good place to be in.

    Hoffman wants to return to Philly (from his own mouth) and position flexibility could justify the pay day he’s in line for.

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