This is your current Phillies Discussion.
I figured I would get out a new discussion while we wait for the Eagles defense to show up.
Okay, so I see the Trout discussion has started. I held off on commenting. Looked up some info and decided to save it for the discussion. Listen, I’m neither hot nor cold on Trout. I get that he’s a plus talent when healthy. I also see that he’s older, high salaried, and possibly prospect expensive.
What was of particular interest to me was the accepted fact that the Angels would have to kick in substantial dollars to any deal, anywhere from $60M to almost half of the balance; and the suggested package that included Walker, Castellanos, and prospects Abel and Rincones (I think). I’m not criticizing any of the suggestions. As much as I love our prospects, I probably do the trade. I guess I don’t completely understand how the money comes into play. Let’s look at my confusion.
Trout has six years remaining on his current contract at $35.45M per year for a commitment of $212.7M.
A trade that included Walker and Castellanos and 2 minor leaguers would effectively add salary to the Angels for two years. We would be sending $38M in salary to Anaheim in exchange for Trout’s $35.45M coming back. The Angeles wouldn’t see any salary relief until 2027. When the savings does kick in it will be a net $136.7M.
Now, if the Angeles include just $60M ($10M per year), that will increase the Angels net loss the first two season from $2.55M to $12.55M per year and lower their net relief over the length of the contract to $76.7M. If the Angels include a figure closer to half, say $102M, the numbers skew even more – $17M per year, $19.55M deficit the first two years, and only $34.7M in relief that wouldn’t materialize until 2027 at $8.675M per year.
Meanwhile, the Phillies are getting a lot of salary relief as the money paid by the Angels increases. Does the inclusion of Abel and Rincones justify the inclusion of even $60M by the Angels from their point of view? Since I would do the deal, I have to think not.
Sorry for rambling. What do you think?
Important Dates
- January 13, 2024: Salary Arbitration Exchange Date
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- March 28, 2024: Official opening of 2024 season; rosters reduced to 26 (13 pitchers) by Noon ET
- March 28, 2024: After noon, optional assignments begin to count towards the annual option limit of 5
- March 29, 2024: Triple-A Opening Day; Domestic Reserve List limit reduced to 165
- March 31, 2024: First date 7-day Injured List players may be reinstated, if applicable
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- April 7, 2024: First date optioned players may be recalled, if applicable
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- May 4, 2024: Start of the Florida Complex League
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- May 27, 2024: First date that players on the 60-day Injured List may be reinstated
- June 1, 2024: XX(B) Minor League player may require release if not added to Active Roster
- June 3, 2024: Start of the Dominican Summer League
- June 8-9, 2024: MLB London Series (Mets vs. Phillies)
- June 15, 2024: First date Clubs may trade a XX(B) player without his consent
- June 17-22, 2024: MLB Draft Combine, Phoenix, AZ
- July 7, 2024: Start of the Closed Period for the 2024 MLB First-Year Player Draft
- July 13, 2024: 2024 MLB All-Star Futures Game, Arlington, TX
- July 14-16, 2024: 2024 MLB First-Year Player Draft, Arlington, TX
- July 15, 2024: 2024 T-Mobile Home Run Derby, Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX
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- July 19-22, 2024: Hall of Fame Induction Weekend
- July 25, 2024: End of the Florida Complex League regular season
- July 29, 2024: Start of the Florida Bridge League (16-game schedule among Phillies, Pirates, Blue Jays, Yankees, Tigers)
- July 30, 2024, 6:00 p.m. ET: Trade deadline
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- September 29, 2024: Last weekend date waivers will be processed until next Spring Training
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- September 30, 2024: All players on optional assignment must be recalled
- September 30, 2024: All players on the 7-day, 10-day and 15-day Injured Lists must be reinstated
- September 30, 2024: Minor League UPCs may now be traded between Major League Clubs
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- October 7, 2024: Opening Night for the Arizona Fall League (AFL)
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- October 16, 2024: Start of the Dominican Professional Baseball League (LIDOM)
- October 25-November 2, 2024: World Series
- October 31, 2024: First date players may be traded between Major League Clubs
- October 31, 2024: Eligible XX(B) players become free agents (start of the quiet period)
- ARTICLE XX(B) Free Agency – Following the completion of the term of his Uniform Player’s Contract, any Player with 6 or more years of Major League service who has not executed a contract for the next succeeding season shall become a free agent.
- November 1, 2024: Article XX(D) Free Agency period.
- ARTICLE XX(D) – Outright Assignment to Minor League Club –
- Any Player who has at least 3 years of Major League service, or
who qualified as a “Super Two” Player as of the conclusion of the championship season, and whose contract is assigned outright to a Minor League club may elect to become a free agent. If such a Player with at least 3 years of Major League service does not elect free agency, he may elect free agency during the period between- (i) the end of the then Major League season and
- (ii) the October 15, or
- 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time on the second day after the final post-season game (whichever occurs later), unless such Player is returned to a Major League roster prior to making such election. Any Player who accepts an outright assignment as a “Super Two” Player will not retain a right to elect free agency following the season.
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- Any Player who has at least 3 years of Major League service, or
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- November 4, 2024: All players on the 60-day Injured List (Major and Minor) and Full-Season Injured Lists must be reinstated
- November 4-7, 2024: GM Meetings, San Antonio TX
- November 7, 2024: Start of the Roberto Clemente Professional Baseball League (LBPRC, Puerto Rico)
- November 8, 2024: AFL Fall-Stars Home run Derby
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- November 15, 2024: AFL Play-in Semifinal
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- November 19-21, 2024: Quarterly owners’ meetings in New York
- November 22, 2024: Tender Deadline – Final day that clubs must tender/non-tender contracts to players on the Major League Reserve List (40-man roster)
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- December 4, 2024: Last date to request Outright Waivers to assign player prior to Rule 5 Draft
- December 8, 2024: Last date to outright a player prior to the Rule 5 Draft
- December 8-11, 2024: Baseball Winter Meetings, Dallas TX
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- December 11, 2024: Major League Rule 5 Draft – Winter Meetings, Dallas, TX
- December 15, 2024: End of 2024 International Signing Period
- December 22, 2024: Completion of the LIDOM regular season
- December 30, 2024: Completion of the LMP regular season
- January 4, 2025: Completion of the LBPRC regular season
- January 5, 2025: LBPRC wild card game (if necessary)
- January 7-15, 2025: LBPRC Semifinals (best of seven)
- January 9, 2025: Exchange of salary figures for arbitration
- January 11-15, 2025: Period during which arbitration hearing scheduled is set
- January 15, 2025: Opening of the 2025 signing period for international amateurs
- January 17-30, 2025: Start of the LBPRC Championship Series (best of nine)
- January 19, 2025: End of the ABL regular season
- January 23-26, 2025: ABL Finals Series
- January 27-February 14, 2025: Period during which arbitration hearings will be held
- January 30-February 2, 2024: ABL Championship Series
- January 31 – February 7, 2025; Caribbean Series – participants will be Mexico, Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico. Japan will be a new participant based in Mexicali, Mexico. Recent participants Cuba, Colombia, Nicaragua, Panama, and Curaçao have not been invited.
- By rule, no player shall be required to report to Spring Training more than 33 days prior to the start of the regular season, injured players, pitchers, and catchers may be invited no earlier than 43 days, and all other players may be invited to no earlier than 38 days prior to the start of the regular season.
- February 12, 2025: Earliest date injured players, pitchers, and catchers may be invited to attend Spring Training
- February 17, 2025: Earliest date all other players may be invited to attend Spring Training
- February 22, 2025: Date players shall be required to report to Spring Training
- March 27, 2025: Phillies season opener at Washington
- March 31, 2025: Phillies home opener
- Note: These dates will be used unless notified differently.
Transactions – The next big batch of transactions will come when the players on the 60-day and Full Season injury lists are activated after the end of the World Series and as minor league players start declaring free agency.
However, 4 of our minor leaguers have already opted for free agency (bold below).
10/15/2024 – C Aramis Garcia elected free agency
10/10/2024 – RHP Andrew Bellatti elected free agency
10/10/2024 – RHP Dylan Covey elected free agency
10/10/2024 – RHP Nick Nelson elected free agency
If anyone is interested, the first 3 files under Rosters and Stuff on the pull-down menu above are up to date as of October 6th.
The Transactions menu option is up-to-date for the 2024 season thru September 30th.
On Trout…..one hang up as a poster suggested, bottom line, he would have to agree to the trade. I kind of think the ball would be in his mother and his mother-in-law’s hands when it comes down to it……grandmothers want and need to be around their young grandchildren.
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Jim – thats seems pretty lopsided for Philly, in terms of the money. If they are going to pay down Trouts salary, you’d likely have to deduct walker’s salary from that agreed upon number instead of in addition too…. Imo. After that it they should be able to work it out.
the reason I posted this is more for the speculation on my part … that Trout might change his mind about staying in LAA ..within the year. Stemming from the belief of seeing ohtani in the playoffs & now WS… it’s gotta get the juices flowing for him. 6 years left, but it’s really 4. Who believes the Angels have a legitimate shot of making the playoffs next year? No chance…. Even if they signed Soto. It’s that bad imo. So next year likely a no, and the last year of the contract you can figure is the swan song. That’s 4 years left, of which how many would LAA be a legit WS contenders?1-2 at most imho. I just see him starting to seee the writing on the wall. He’d be smart to force the issue this year but I bet he makes 1 more run with LAA and then it’s time for a deal. Will see
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Jim, If Trout is now healthy, I would do the deal. However, should Trout be willing to go elsewhere, I think the Angles could do better.
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I don’t think acquiring an over the hill, and usually injured, very highly paid star is the way to go. I also don’t expect them to trade Painter, Miller or Crawford or to trade Bohm and sign Bregman. I also don’t expect them to trade Stott after a bad year. What’s that leave? I could see them trade Marsh plus Caba or Tait for a young CF or LF. I don’t expect Marsh to be back. I could also see them pursue Bellinger for CF. I don’t know how much the White Sox will want for Robert and they’ll talk but without the 3 top kids I doubt a deal will get done. They’ll talk to the As again as well about Rocker. No way the Guardians will trade Kwan but calls will certainly be made. They’ll ultimately sign someone to play LF from free agency if they can’t get a trade done.
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Somewhere I saw it stated that Trout realizes he most likely needs to move to DH in the near future. Schwarber has one more year on current deal. He is one of the guys I think they would resign on a short-term deal let’s say 3 years. I would think that would eliminate the Trout addition. But I have no idea what is going on in the minds of the brain trust for the Phillies. Romus and others believe there needs to be changes made. I really do not disagree but have a feeling one could easily see at least 7 or the regular 9 return for 2025 season. But I may be way off. It may be 5, it may be all 9.
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Stumping for Hoosier Schwarber, yep …………. caught you ……. need to learn to be more subtle, Don.
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Hoosier Schwarber was the guest picker on Game Day on Saturday. He picked the Hoosiers over Washington. Also got the A & M win over LSU. Who would you rather have Trout or Schwarber? I agree dmar on not giving away MLB likely prospects for rentals or aging guys. Appears the Angels did that to the Phillies last Summer.
I had said Dodgers in 6. Maybe in 4 now.
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Don – I started a reply apologies if double posted. Phillies have a few roads to take but it all boils down to:
Sign Soto or Trade for Trout … lol or both. 🙂
Keep the lineup with a few updates – Hernadez, Profar, Santander, etc
or really move some line up pieces around … like Bohm, Schwarber, (to free up the DH) Alvarado, Sosa, Sanchez or Ranger….
The player I’d love to have gotten was Luis Arraez. I thought the Padres were in finanical ruin.. but apparently not. 200 hits at the bottom of this lineup would be amazing
The only other ideas I’ve seen is to put Harper in the leadoff spot. Like Lindor & Ohtani. I can see Harper doing it, but i see the Schwarber leadoff logic. If he’s going to hr in the 1st at bat… you essentially get 1-0 lead, with 27 outs to win. Question is if it’s better to have a pesky Stott leadoff with a 2023 approach, followed by Harper, Schwarber, Turner combo.
My two cents, Phillies need to spend. Soto would be a Harper 2.0 signing, and keep their prospects to prolong their window.
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I have to agree that would be a lot for the Angels to do to move him. And even if they were willing I’m not sure I would do it. Trout was a great player WAS! And even if he’s healthy today the odds are against him staying healthy.
Any prospect that we have that has real MLB potential we need to hold onto. Abel probably isn’t that guy but Rincones Jr is so i would not part with him.
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To be even considering Mike Trout tells me that they don’t think Bohm or Casty is proper protection behind Harper in the lineup. They found that out last year.
As much as I like to believe otherwise, I feel Harper may have only 3 years or so of superstar production left. He started slipping bit last year. But he might be a fine player after that , but only at first base. His days in the OF are over IMO.
A trade for Trout could be one of the best trades of all time or it could be a disaster. I don’t think DD should even consider it, but they still a righthanded power bat behind Harper.
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Please no Trout. Love the guy, but I want predictability and flexibility.
Need a RH with Gap Power, but I want a guy that can play 140, play a primary position that’s NOT DH, and have a contract that is not 7+ years investment
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I really think that we have a lot of potential moves to make, but one for sure that we should do is find a young catcher who can be a future piece. Let him come in this year and learn from JT, while also catching 40-50 games.
I think we are all excited about Marchan, but he’s an injury risk and hasn’t exactly owned the pitchers in Triple-A. I do like the fact that Stubbs has a minor league option remaining, and I think we should retain him. If he could just be a scrappier hitter, he could be a good part-time guy. There’s no excuse for him to not be bunting for a base hit at least once a game.
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Harry Ford may be obtainable…perhaps Dipoto would take local kid Washington state Mick Abel. Georgia prep ball players seem to develop into very good MLB players.
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That kid steals a ton of bases for a catcher!
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Very athletic for sure……but can he prevent the steals.
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The first names that came to mind when I read the Georgia prep school remark were Cornelius Randolph (10th overall in 2015) and Larry Green (39th overall, a 2011 Comp A pick). Both were Georgia prep schoolers.
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Apparently the Phillies are an exceptional team…they picked the exceptions from Georgia…….and then there was also Baron Radcliff, Kendal Simmons, so far, and Ethan Lindow,
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Local Philly web-poll…on who stays and/or who goes.
Marsh…..40% want him to go.
https://www.phillyvoice.com/phillies-mlb-roster-news-free-agency-rumors-stay-or-go-dave-dombroski-vote-results/
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Romus. Like I said earlier that I think 7 starters stay where they are. Really think only LF and CF are most likely. Then RF and 3B in 2nd group. Other 5 I think are locks to stay. But what do I know. oldruff says I am bias for Hoosier Schwarber.
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The Website That Ball’s Outta’ Here has documented the worst trades in Phillies’ history. It’s painful as well as instructive to read. Like castor oil, it tastes bad but is possibly good for one. Forget the past and you could be destined to re-live it.
There were trades of players for an inadequate return like Rolen and Schilling who demanded a trade to a contender and the trade of Hamels which amounted to the same, even though Hamels didn’t demand a trade.
The most instructive and, to me, painful trades were those (Ferguson Jenkins, Ryne Sandberg and Jack Sanford) where the Phils clearly didn’t recognize the talent they were sacrificing.
Sanford had been an NL Rookie of the Year with the Phils while Jenkins had scant time on the MLB squad before each left in different eras to the Cubs.
Not every prospect is a diamond in the rough and all can’t be treated as such.But team-controlled emerging stars populate the top teams and the Phils need their share. As long as you think Bohm is or can be one, you don’t trade him. And you give a chance to the top tier prospects to become those stars, even if it’s unlikely that each and every one will reach their potential.
To fill the gaps in he current roster, use free agency and players who are blocked from any realistic chance of reaching their potential in Philly. The latterI think is theoretical because Marchan is the only prospect who is knocking on the door whose path you could describe as blocked at the moment.
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Thinking outside the box just a little…
We don’t have to focus solely on an outfielder. We can also shoot for a SS or a 3B… or even a 2B. Harper can move back to the OF and Bohm can move to 1B… if needed, I’m sure Turner can play 3B if we get a SS… or Stott can play SS if we get a good hitting 2B. Point is, our defense can be somewhat flexible and not lose too much. We should focus on getting a good hitter, with good plate discipline, who doesn’t strike out too much. I think that will help our lineup more than another LF’er who hits 25 HR’s, bats .265 and strikes out 180 times per year.
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So, basically, we just need to get a reincarnated Joe Morgan – :). I’m sure we can arrange that. Easy peasy.
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i like Luis Avarrez when he was on the Marlins. Would have been awesome for the bottom of our lineup
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Phillies’ starters K rates:
JTR -.25%……
Harp -.22%…..
Stott – 16%……
TreaT -.18%……
AlecB -14%…..
Marsh -.32%…..
Roias – 19%…..
Casty -.21%…..
Schwarb – 28%…..
Marsh is alarming since he was minimized PAs vs LHPS
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Agree, Marsh is 👺 alarming ……
Schwarb is Schwarb HR, BB or K, that’s what you get ….., liked the 2024 version better than the 2023 version, less HRs, but better average. (Came in better shape to spring training)👍
JT is 😳 surprising, seemed to me, he slowwwwed down on turnnnning on a FB ……..
Casty ……. ankle high n away and he falls prey!
Stott …. high n tight on the “P” and another “K” he will see!
Rojas ….above the letters … axe swinger’s delight!
Bohm best contact of the group!😇
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Skeet…I was keen all the way on Marsh up to about mid-season of this year……he can be clutch, but often times gives bats away with two strikes thru the season. I mean, if a guy like Harper can make an approach adjustment with two strikes….dang, why can’t mountain man Marsh!
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oldruff. How do you really feel about the lineup. LOL Are you and English professor or poetry? Poetry in motion. You are pretty right on with your assessments. Probably put Turner with Casty. Haper sees the most pitches. JT was really bad on fastballs over 93 I think it was stated. Marsh took an awful lot of pitches down the middle of plate.
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I really don’t think that Harper wants anything to do with right field anymore whether it is for “the good of the team” or not. Especially now that he’s being considered a possible gold glove first baseman.
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Harper’s the first baseman and will be for the next 5-7 years at least. It’s a good spot for him.
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i think the amount of jerseys and shirts and gear they sell with trout’s name on it would pay for itself if they paid him $300mil… i’d give up some to get him but not a lot… don’t Angels the Phillies anymore then we have as it’s not working.. take marsh back, give me o’hope and take street fighter hyduken gives up the GS with you.. smh Angels.. but no.. yo i’d take trout for little on the dolla if he wants to compete.. guys kind of soft imo
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Hopefully the Dodgers can complete their sweep tonight so we can get onto the off season.
I rarely root for the NL team when we are not there but I find myself liking a lot of their guys. I always liked Freeman and Betts especially.
And how about Kiki Hernandez. He wasn’t even a name I was thinking could help us but wow has he been clutch for the Dodgers in the playoffs. He was exactly the kind of guy we were missing at the bottom of the LU.
Batting 9 ahead of Shohei he knows precisely how he is going to be approached and he has made the most of those mistake pitches.
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Agree. I told Romus that Kiki is one of those 7 o’clock players. When the lights are brightest, he shines. Believe the Phillies were hoping Merrifield would be that kind of player for them. But Whit had the dimmers on till he landed with the Braves.
I had said Dodgers in 6 but could be 4 now. I am ready for the season to be over. Biggest disappointment is the Phillies were 5-1 against the Dodgers this season. Another opportunity missed by the Phils. Not like in 23 but still missed.
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Don….I remember that Whit reference…if the Phillies get Kiki he could evolve into the next Whit…in true Phillies fashion.
BTW..….LA Dodgers, of also Brooklyn fame, were formed in 1883….won their first World Series 71 years later in 1955.
If they win it this week, will be their 8th WS championship in the last 69 years. In the NL, they will be second to the Cardinal’s 11 WS championships and tied with their arch-rivals the Giants.
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Any team looking for high end starting pitching this off-season is going to have to compete with the Dodgers and Yankees — and Mets, Braves, Giants, Challengers, Rangers, Orioles, Red Sox, Padres, Astros, BlueJays, Cubs — who am I leaving out?
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Who are the Challengers?
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Romus. Be nice. Challengers are from out in space. You should know that.
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Got it.
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This is interesting stuff, I read an article where the family whose profile served as the face of the Washington Commanders for 48 years want him back. His image was also the face on the Indian Head Nickel. His name was Two Guns White Calf, his nephew reportedly said I’m proud of him and the tribe is proud of him.
Anna Kutz Newsnation 9/19/24
You are right, hard to discuss subjects like old baseball teams and military forts anymore, don’t know what to call them.
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Quotes are not direct quotes just a ref. to where you can read the article.
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I just read this article which states the Mets can pay Soto $45 mil, Burnes $30 Mil and Alonso $25 mil and still have a lower payroll than the Phillies
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/flush-with-offseason-cash-steve-cohen-and-the-mets-have-the-phillies-in-a-tricky-spot/ar-AA1tbQx3?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=2cde42da7fed47cd85d6030f9a0edd24&ei=84
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DMAR…that is so hard to believe…..Lindor, Marte and Nimmo also account for $74M AAV in 2025. but knowing Cohen, Soto is in his cross-hairs. Maybe Phillies can up the ante.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/new-york-mets/cap/_/year/2025
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Romus the writer admits those are random figures and the price for those 3 in AAV could be much higher.
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IMO, if the Yankees lose Soto to the Mets….they will go high after Alonso, since Rizzo is a club buy-out for $6M, and Yankees could exercise that right, and Rizzo then becomes a free agent.
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Romus. You may have to cough up your yacht for this one.
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Offseason time passer – thoughts?
Much like we we do the Org Top 30, what about an all time favorite Phillies team? 27 players. Not the best at each position,but your favorite players. Thought it might be fun to compare against the all time best Phillies players are we all wait for the Middleton to sign SOTO 😀 (relax, but im trying to will it)
Feelings arent hurt either way, no rush on it either. I was thinking about the Phillies SR, and …. There are a lot of good pitchers to pick from nowadays. Anyways, thought it could be fun. There would be a DH allowable for the one position you can’t decide. Its your team/lineup.
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A nice podcast is available with Preston Mattingly – he talks about several of the players in the minors. Give it a listen as you go for a walk or hand out candy..
It’s on ‘The Phillies Show” podcast.
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Thanks Wes….very interesting.
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By the way, Matty Winks did a write up of our AFL prospects, praising Painter and saying what you’d expect he’d say (if he keeps progressing he could easily become the best pitching prospect in baseball again), and saying generally nice things about Rincones, but really came out strong on Otto Kemp (aside from his K rate, which is a concern). The bottom line is that Kemp is punishing the ball and producing really high exit velocities, as high as almost 116 MPH – that’s Harper/Schwarber territory. It’s hard to believe, but Kemp started last year in low A ball and now he’s a bona fide big league prospect. Let’s see what he does in AAA, but they really should give him a shot at some point.
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Kemp, along with Keaton Anthony and Carson Taylor are all legit right handed bats…….but they have defensive position limitations. Kemp can play third, the two others will either be first base or left field….though Taylor could give it ago again as a catcher. Like to see all three at LHV this season and see what they can do.
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The Phillies have plenty of payroll flexibility, just not in 2025. After next year, Realmuto and Schwarber come off the books, and after 2026 Casty and Walker come off the books. So they have >$80M coming off in the next two years from those four players. Look, careers don’t last forever. They need to find younger stars (whether internal or through trades/free agency). Soto at $45M per year would crush the payroll in 2025, would be a strain in 2026, but would be tolerable for the remaining 11 years (or whatever) of the contract.
Another thing about the super long-term contracts: there is inflation. Look at the Harper $330M contract. This year he was the 30th highest paid player, just a tick above Dansby Swanson and slightly below Xander Bogaerts. By the time we get to 2029-2031, it won’t be in the top 50 or 60 annual salaries in the game.
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Agree and I think the front office/Middleton agrees as well. I don’t think he leaves NY but I think the Phillies already showed last year they’ll make an exception to acquire an elite young star just entering his prime and they showed with the Harper contract they can get creative to make it work. I think they can also move money if needed (even if it costs prospect capital).
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JTR and Schwarber come off the books……that will depend if there are two players available that will replace them…in the field and at the plate. I do not see any team signing them, as free agents, for more than a two year period, but then again the Phillies just may do that if they cannot find anyone to replace them..
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Realmuto – If a healthy Realmuto performs no better than he did in an injury-plagued 2024, then any future contract will be for substantially less $. If he balks at less playing time in the regular season, he may seek to move on. Does Marchan, as a backup show signs of being an MLB starter? Probability of the Phils being successful at extending Realmuto? I’d put it at 40 % or less.
Schwarber – Schwarber makes less than the qualifying offer level for a team retaining rights to a player entering free agency. That’s to say Schwarber is a bargain and a strong candidate for an extension either this off-season or during the 2025 season, barring a drop-off in performance.
I don’t think any calculation of a Soto addition can assume a Schwarber salary subtraction for 2025 or 2026, at least.
Lastly, I don’t know anyone weighing in who thinks a Phils’ offer with a $45 M AAV won’t be matched/surpassed by a New York team. Some think a 10 year $475 M offer is where bidding will begin.
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“Probability of the Phils being successful at extending Realmuto? I’d put it at 40 % or less.”….I think that is rather a low percentage. I do not see a lot of contending teams offering a 35-year old catcher (2026) more than a two year contract, if that, If the Phillies offer him two years I am confident he would accept it.
Agree with you on Schwarber, and also the likelihood that Soto stays with a New York team.
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3 P’s on Realmuto; performance, play and pay. If the Phils improve their LF position this off-season, Realmuto could become the worst right-handed bat in the order. That puts him in the 8th slot.
Reduced playing time could cause Realmuto to re-valuate his desire to remain in Philly. Can’t assume it’s insurmountable but you can’t assume it isn’t or won’t be an issue.
Realmuto is the highest paid catcher. On a team with 8 All Stars in ’24, he wasn’t one. How do you compensate Realmuto for what he is and not for what he was?
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Finding the money for Soto is very doable imo (Hey, it’s not my money) Several trades can be made in addition to money coming off the books. I based my numbers off Ohtain – 700 mil over 12 years for a 26 yr old is 58mil p/y. It’s surprisingly not hard to get there. -trade Castellanos or Schwarber, Sosa, Alvarado, and “Yamamoto’s” offer. Done.
its whether Soto will sign here vs elsewhere. Every major team will be in on Soto. I think the Phillies are the #2 choice right now. JM does it, becasue it completely elongates their window. My reason for optimism is that why Soto maybe an entertainer, showboater, there is reason to believe he is a very private person. That usually doesn’t mix well with NY or LA. Will see, but don’t be shocked. It’s a higher possibility than we might think. Boras may owe JM By now too.
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Romus. I mentioned to oldruff I can see Phillies going a few years for Schwarber. I doubt they do for JT. He gets so beat up physically. It takes a toll.
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Yeah…….Phillies will let JTR test the market, but if they do offer him a contract he will accept. Bottom line…..will it be one or two years? If Tait does not stumble going up the ladder, then he should be close in 2027 or 2028…and he still will be under 22-years old.
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The Phillies will really need to explore finding a backup catcher this off season. Though I like Marchan, they just can’t depend on him alone.
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Seeing the Phillies are listed as the 4th best odds for the 2025 WS. Also, as the number 2 team in the Way Too Early Power Ranking for 2025. Was mentioned that most of roster returns intact. But also, most of the core guys are now 32 or older. Let the Hot Stove begin.
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Dodgers deserve some plaudits. Like the Phillies they were on the brink of elimination at 1-2 in the NLDS. Unlike the Phillies who left quietly the Dodgers showed their resolve with the pitching staff responding with 33 straight shutout innings. It is really difficult to lose if the other team does not score. That could be an oldruff saying. From that point on it was fairly smooth sailing for them. After the 1-2 start they finished 10-3 to capture the WS. Both Phillies and Dodgers were at 1-2. Phillies finished 1-3, Dodgers 11-5.
Romus. Is the WS MVP the same Freeman guy who was on the Braves? I am only kidding. Congrats to Freddie. He is one of the good guys in baseball. He plays the game the way it is meant to be played.
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I get why the Braves let Freddie Freeman walk and replaced him with a younger Matt Olson. Most times, this is the right decision to make.
Unfortunately for the Braves, Freeman seems to have a lot left in the tank.
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When the Yankees “open the door” they don’t fool around, front door, side door, back door and sliding door wide open. Relax for a moment ……. and 5 run lead is squandered …….. gone, gone ….gone.
Personally, I thought it was a great WS. Freeman, he was the man ….. Olson is a good player, but the Braves made a mistake, a big one!
The “Bums” staff rose to the occasion, not really impressed with them pre-series, but they didn’t let up and were vigilant.
The kid “Anthony Volpe” for some reason stood out and impressed me. I think it was his demeanor, on the biggest stage, he didn’t seem like the “bright lights” mattered!
Well another season has come and gone, but one thing is certain ………….. we don’t have the intangibles and we only play one brand of baseball ……. we got work to do.
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I agree with you on Volpe. He is one impressive player for a young guy. Plays a great shortstop and he seemed to adjust on the run to hitting in the bright lights. I think they have a real keeper there. A little side note for Hoosier Don who likes this sort of thing – Volpe went to a school with Jack Leiter (Texas Rangers pitcher) – Delbarton in Morristown, NJ. They won the state title as seniors and both picked in first round of 2019 draft. Volpe is a local boy who succeeded in all the leagues as a youth.
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Guys. I do like those guys who shine the brightest at the biggest moments. As a coach or manager, you just hope you can find them. We all know Freddie is one of those guys. That is great for both of the kids in their development.
I thought even before last night that the Yankees had played the series as the Phillies did the 2nd half of the season. Little hitting, scoring outburst, and then squander a big lead as the Phillies did a few times especially for Nola in the 2nd half.
Time to turn the page. No November baseball this year. I really think it will be interesting to see what the Phillies do. I see the new posting above by Jim so we can all speculate.
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Yankees’ fundamentals are below par…..modt managers can deal with the physical mistake. like Judeg driopping the line drive…..but base running miscues, not covering first base by Cole…where was his PFP mind on that, in Tampa! Throwing to the wrong base, missing cut-off men……I guess in spring training they throw the balls out on the field and tell them, hit home runs..
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Various lessons from how this season played out. One, if you think you have enough starting pitching, you don’t.
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Juan Soto is asking for a “solid” $700M, meaning minimal deferred money.
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Keaton Anthony just won a minor league GG at 1B. Pretty sure he’s not moving to the OF.
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Guru – I think we could also be pretty sure that he will be traded in some package because he won’t be playing first base for the Phillies.
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Yes, interesting articles today about players moving to different positions in 2025 …….. DD …… “Harper isn’t going back to the OF” …….. at the lower level Anthony probably isn’t going to the OF. Who is replacing Hall?
WS Champs ……… “Mookie is going to the IF” ……… Phillies “shhhhh” Trea probably isn’t moving from SS, but you may hope, going to the OF, nah.
Sorry, I’m anxious already to see the perceived improvements for 2025. If you think I’m delirious, I might be ….. I had 4 teeth yanked today!
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I’m excited about the Promotion for Mattingly. I mean, track record isn’t long but have confidence that the Phils made the decision based on a multitude of observations. Hopefully the minor leagues will start to produce MLB players at a higher rate.
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I feel that if they didn’t promote him, they would eventually lose him to another organization.
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Guys on MLB spoke with Preston last night. He was really high on the 4 starting pitchers. Relievers Strahm, Alvarado, and Kerkering. Spoke highly of 6 of the position players. Left out J.T. May have just forgot. Also spoke very highly of Painter, Miller and Crawford. Think it might be difficult for someone to land any of those. He stated his belief that all 3 will be in Philly soon.
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Looks like Dombrowski is transitioning out into retirement after the 2025 or 2026 season. Both Sam Fuld and Preston M. have been promoted and Fuld takes over as PoBO sometime in 2026. Time and changes keep on going.
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Yeah, I kind of got that drift as well…….. is that Nashville or expansion gig still a possibility on the horizon?
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Who knows for sure…he will be in his 70s by then.
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It’s important to note that the PoBo position Fuld will be taking after graduating from Wharton is President of BUSINESS Operations, not baseball operations.
So I dunno if DD is any closer to retirement or not, but Fuld isn’t going to be the one that succeeds him.
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Closing this down, new discussion at …
Phillies Discussion, 11/13/24 | Phuture Phillies
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