234 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion, 9/15/24”

1. Jim. Good points on the home field and seemingly lack of advantage. The way the playoffs are now you are 100% correct that the hot team is the one most likely to win. Plus, along the way somewhere you probably have to get a lucky bounce or two. Hopefully the Phillies can maintain this good streak as we approach October. I do think some concerns exist for Nola and Ranger. The hitting seems to go hot and cold. But for me the one thing that has really helped these last few weeks is the dominance of the bullpen again. There are several really good bullpens among the teams, so it is going to be interesting.

   When the playoffs began last Fall, I bet you could have got great odds for a Texas vs Arizona World Series. Not sure I have ever seen what that was. Oh well. Hoping the Phillies will be the hot team.

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   1. Don……thru the 2022 postseason, five NL wild card teams have gone on to win the WS (Florida in 1997 and 2003, Cards in 2011, SF in 2014 and Nats in 2019)…..and I think all were hot in their last two/three weeks of the season …just to get into the play-offs as the Wild Card. Last year Rangers did win the AL-West with 90 wins.

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      1. Romus. I agree. Being hot at the right time is most important. I remember that 2011 Cards 1-0 game. I think Rangers won division on last day if I recall correctly. Here is quiz for you. Watching MLB guys roast Cole for intentionally walking Devers before 5th inning. Buck is really roasting him. Anyway, they just mentioned in the last 25 years only 3 guys have received an intentional walk prior to the 5th inning. Devers is the 4th. Who are the other 3?

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         1. Bond I would think is one….maybe Harper vs Joe Madden and the Cubs

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   2. Now Don….same ominous stats…. the team with the best regular-season record won the WS only seven times, a 24% success rate. They were the 1998 Yankees, the 2007 Red Sox (tied for best record), the 2009 Yankees–vs who else, the 2013 Red Sox (tied for best record), the 2016 Cubs, the 2018 Red Sox and the 2020 Dodgers (shortened season).

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2. oldruff and Romus. Have you guys seen the Arozerena at bat and the Yankee pitcher signal 4 balls for a walk. It was Cole. He gave the walk to Devers. Randy simply stepped out of the box before the first 3 pitches. All were balls. Then on the 3-0 pitch he hits a home run.

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   1. Did not see it…..but how, Devers is on the Sox and Randy Arozarena is on the Mariners??????

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   2. Sorry. Two different games. Cole vs Red Sox. Bonds, Vlad Sr. and Judge.

      Arosemena was against whoever they played over weekend. I was watching him step out as Cliff Floyd said he has never seen that before. Forget who they were playing. Then he did like a ballerina jump when he got toward dugout. Weird.

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      1. If Bonds, Vlad, and Judge is the answer to your earlier quiz, it is incomplete. Romus was correct. Harper was walked intentionally in the fourth inning by Arrieta, Maddon and the Cubs on May 8, 2016.

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         1. The full stat was an intentional walk with the bases empty before the 5th. Harper was IBB’d with a man on, so that’s why he’s not on the list.

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            1. Thanks Dan. The conversation mostly dealt with Cole giving the 4 fingers walk symbol rather than Boone. Ump kind of looked at Boone and he really did nothing. Buck said Cole sent a really poor message to his teammates. They also showed Bonds getting the intentional walk with the bases loaded. One other thing they said and showed was a Giant right-handed batter hitting a home run into the Bay. They were saying that had never been done before. Not sure if ever or simply ever by a Giant.

               Romus. Back to Randy. They hit him the next at bat. But he sure baited the pitcher. The 3-0 pitch was grooved right down the middle of the plate.

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               1. Don…that was Giants’ Heliot Ramos who hit the HR into SF Bay. Probably approx 425 ft.

                  https://tht.fangraphs.com/the-physics-of-splash-hits/

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               2. Sorry Don…distance was actually only 394 ft into the SF Bay for Ramos’ HR.

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               3. Romus. I only saw the ball land in the bay and then he was rounding 1B. Could not see his number. Is it first ever by a right-handed hitter? I heard T Mac mention for some reason that Schwarbs only had IU and he thought Cincy interest in baseball. Said several football. Most likely even then only got partial. Until now baseball has been a few and mostly pitchers got those and then they would split some others. Even in 70 it was similar. My best was kicking a football. But did not want to do that and no scholarships for it then either.

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            2. Was going by the original comment by Don. No mention of the qualifier you state. But I’ll get back in my lane and leave the discussion.

               “Romus. I agree. Being hot at the right time is most important. I remember that 2011 Cards 1-0 game. I think Rangers won division on last day if I recall correctly. Here is quiz for you. Watching MLB guys roast Cole for intentionally walking Devers before 5th inning. Buck is really roasting him. Anyway, they just mentioned in the last 25 years only 3 guys have received an intentional walk prior to the 5th inning. Devers is the 4th. Who are the other 3?”

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               1. Yeah, just wanted to clarify since he was getting the info from a broadcast. I saw a clip of it right after they talked about it which is the only reason I knew.

                  I don’t have the exact number for how many IBB have happened before the 5th without any other qualifiers, but I imagine that list is still pretty small, too.

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               2. Barry Bonds has to be one. Guessing the others is a crapshoot, but I’d guess Albert Pujols is one of them.

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               3. Jim. You are fine. I was just waiting on Phillies game and put MLB guys on for a few minutes. Think the segment was like strange plays or plays I have never seen before. Something like that. Cliff Floyd said he had never seen a batter do what Arozerena did. Step out of batter’s box on 3 straight pitches. All were balls and then on 3-0 pitch he drills a home run. The pitch was grooved right down the middle.

                  The second was Gerrit Cole motioning to the umpire with 4 fingers to intentionally walk Devers. Guys put the rule up and it showed only the manager can do that. So, they were dissing on Cole for doing that in the first place. Devers has owned Cole, but Buck Showalter said that was poor judgement. At the very end they said only 3 guys in the last 25 years had received an intentional walk before the 5th inning. I missed them say with no one on base. Sorry. Devers then stole and Sox scored a few runs.

                  Catch the 3 they gave were Bonds, Vlad Sr. and Judge.

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3. Of equal interest and relevance to me are the Phils’ recent home:away splits. In 2022, the Phil’s were 47-34 at home, 40-41 on the road. In 2023 they were 49-32 at home and 41-40 on enemy turf. This year they are 52-26 at home and 38-33 on the road. That home record this year would be hard for playoff opponents to ignore.

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   1. I think the nearly daily sell out crowd of fans has helped them some. Gets them pumped up. I looked at some of the other play-off home team ballparks and there are plenty of empty seats in the upper deck levels. At CBP the crowd really gets into it.

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4. Jim – I will say home field advantage is overrated in the NBA,NHL, and NFL. In the MLB, the dimensions of the field and batter’s eye might make an impact, but generally agree. I think skipping the 1st rd id more the Bennie, but will see. Atlanta complains about that a lot, and Wheeler doesn’t like to pitch on extra rest so…. It could be an issue. I hope the team has a plan to stay locked in. They can’t afford to take 2 games to get warmed up…

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5. Anszinger saying Ohtani will be closer for Dodgers in playoffs. Roberts slim but not out of possibility. Greg says Ohtani said striking out Trout to win WBC his most favorable moment in baseball.

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   1. interesting … Watching Harper smack a walkoff HR off Ohtani to send the Phils to the WS would be amazing…

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6. What a crap turnout at “American Family field”…

   Is everyone divorced in Milwaukee?

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   1. Very true – few fans support their teams as well as Phillies’ fans. But this answers the question about why the Brewers are “cheap.” They probably have very low TV and stadium revenues compared to other teams. So they can never have more than a few highly paid players. As a result, they struggle to stay good, as the Tampa Rays always do.

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      1. One reason Pirates decide to delay Skenes’ debut….buy for them an extra year before he signs with the Yankees. Though surprised Brew Crew signed Chourio that fast on a LTC……J 8yr/$82M with a $2M signing bonus, and an AAV of approx.$10.25M….they bought out his pre=arb/entry and arb years and then added two more years into his normal free agency, then two years of club options…..similar to what the Braves did with Acuna and Albies 5 years ago. Chourio could become free agent going into age30 season.

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         1. Skenes is a lock to be top 2 in ROY voting so he’s going to get 1 year of service time for that.

            Skenes has 5.5 WAR in only 21 starts.

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            1. More optimism for the Yankees, or the Dodgers….I bet they just cannot wait!

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7. I believe the other dynamic is that all the pressure is on the higher seed in many instances. Last year the D-Backs like the Phillies the year before weren’t even expected to be in the playoffs.

   Good teams with very low expectations tend to play free and easy and those are always the toughest opponents to face.

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8. Hoosier Don ………… Long Gone Walker singing that old favorite ………🎶I’m Back in the Saddle Again …. back where a🎶 …….. gotta feeling this saga is going to play continually til the dollars totally dissipate.😏

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   1. oldruff. Not sure. I figured he would get the next start. He earned that on Saturday. Had he given up 3 or 4 runs like he had been doing the game would have been out of reach. No one else has taken it from him. I thought in those innings he kept ball down better and was more on the corners. Not right down the middle like he had been. Hope he does good. Phillies really need to win one of these next 2 games.

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9. Abel getting bombed again. Year couldn’t go worse for him. IMO, Crawford is Phillies minor league player of the year and Abel is (by far) the most disappointing. Not sure about the minor league pitcher of the year. It would have been Klassen or Aldegheri.

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   1. Minor league pitcher of the year would be Robinson Pina or Eiberson Castellano.

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      1. what about Mavis Graves at Clearwater for minor league pitcher of the year????

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   2. the deets that I saw on Twitter:
      Mick Abel done after 2.1 IP:
      8 H
      9 R, 8 ER
      3 BB
      1 K
      1 Balk
      59 pitches, 34 strikes
      9 of 17 first-pitch strikes
      2nd shortest outing of 2024

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      1. Yup, it’s been a terrible year for Abel. Hopefully, he can go home, clear his head and then start anew. They will probably give him another shot as a starter and then I expect they will try to move him to the bullpen. This was still a good pick based on what they knew at the time, but sometimes, things go sideways. But he’s still young and still has a good arm. We’ll see.

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   3. Mavis Graves could be in the running….but season was shortened due to innings limitation.

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10. Edmundo Sosa has been activated, Buddy Kennedy was optioned down to Lehigh.

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11. I know people are riding high off his HR robbery, but Stevenson is showing that there is a CHASM between him and Rojas defensively. The Brewers have gotten at least 3 extra bases off him that Rojas (almost always) prevents.

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    1. You mean because Rojas has better RANGE than Stevenson and would have likely cut the ball off so the hitter can’t get an extra base(s)?

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12. They have a solid lead but ridiculous number of strikeouts tonight. They need to do a better job of putting the ball into play.

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13. Chasm, ehhhh ……….. maybe crevice. It’s like the word almost, the other day against the Met’s, that was an almost. An identical catch I’ve seen him make before, incidentally. If he had a glove like Casty’s with that “stickem stuff” we could change that word almost to always.

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    1. I dunno man. I’m not saying I hate having him out there. But he looks more like a 55-60 defender to Rojas’ 75-80. And that’s an enormous difference.

       Cal won’t necessarily lose you games out there, but Rojas just changes outcomes. We’re getting spoiled by him.

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       1. Interesting development in CF when Crawford comes up. Rojas may be sliding over or become a 4th….unless of course his bat gets better.

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          1. Agree, ……… I hope they let Crawford experience success at Lehigh. There is no need to accelerate his arrival to the bigs.

             I think trying to learn to hit in the majors, like Rojas is, ……. is a very tough chore mentally and mechanically.

             I can’t see both players (C & R) existing on the field together, unless Rojas becomes a better hitter. If all things remain the same, Rojas will fill the same roll he has now.

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             1. Skeet….if Crawford is everything as advertised and lives up to as he has performed so far thru the minors, Rojas may be relegated to a 4th OFer, or a late game defensive replacement.

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                1. In general, the Phillies only have 4 true OFs on their 26 man roster and it should be Hays, Marsh, Castellanos, Rojas when the season starts in 2025. If Crawford comes up, it’s likely that Rojas goes down to Lehigh and Rojas’ time as a starter for the Phillies are over.

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             2. I could see the two players co-existing, at least for a little while. Rojas is a perfectly fine 4th outfielder and defensive replacement. He will also get starts when the team goes against a tough lefty and Marsh or Crawford sits.

                I was skeptical of Crawford for a number of reasons (including low walk rates), but he’s developing very well for a 20 year-old in AA. I’ll be curious to see how he handles AAA. For hitters, there is often a huge jump between AA and AAA. Guys who struggle hitting breaking balls will often hit a wall in AAA.

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                1. Assume Crawford will head out to the Arizona desert for the AFL season ….he should get approx 100 PAs vs quality major league ready pitchers….that will also give everyone idea on his progression before next season @ LHV.

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14. It appeared to me that Stevenson could have cut off the trouble instead of having it go by him and playing it off the wall. Therefore, holding it to a double and putting runners on 2nd and 3rd.

    It’s a lot easier watching it on television with the help of replay after replay and not having to be out there making a split second decision. Overall, he plays a solid center field.

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    1. Yea, the triple was one of the plays I had in mind. Honestly, it even looked like it would have have only been a single if he had played it correctly. But he took a route to it, it got by him, then he tried to play it off the wall and it bounced away from him again.

       Rojas’ superb speed lets him get that ball well before the wall.

       And, again, not saying he’s a BAD defender necessarily (still too small a sample to be sure, but so far he seems a little above average), just that Rojas has elite defense and plays like that stick out a lot when he’s not in the field.

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15. Of course, I meant to write “triple” and not “trouble”.

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16. Some trivia stats:

    Phillies are 4-0 when they have struck out 16 times or more in a game.

    Phillies are 76-21 when they have scored 4 or more runs in a game.

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    1. I’ll tell you, the bullpen is superb and we are getting spoiled by it. You basically have 4 guys in the BP who are almost entirely lights out – Hoffman, Estevez, Strahm and Kerkering. Ruiz and Alvardo are generally quite good and Banks is a solid bulk reliever. My view is the BP cost us the NLCS last year. This version is much better.

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       1. Agreed…….Thomson may use them more often in the play-offs….if they get the added days off at the start, and then they play every other day once the games start, he may just have starters , other than Wheeler, go twice thru the lineup. Just hope bats do not get quiet and they can generate some leads.

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    2. Romus. I remember back in the day when Cliff Lee was like 44-1 or something similar when given a 4-run lead. Cards in 2011 made him 44-2. I am not a fan of 16 Ks. Not much pressure applied to the defense. Remember sometimes you get luck or have good fortune. In the playoffs there are only a few games you can lose before you go on vacation.

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17. You get to the playoffs everyone pretty much has good pitching if either a rotation or a BP. So it almost always comes down to offense and what teams can get the clutch hitting when its needed most.

    My view anyway…

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    1. That RISP becomes a big factor in the playoffs. Plus, a lucky bounce or hit generally comes into play at a key time.

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       1. Don…yes luck can be a factor….I remember two years ago in St Louis last inning, Arenado misses a routine ball and the Phillies scored six runs in that inning…..I think that was the last inning of the first game when they went into the inning trailing. Maybe I am remembering that wrong.

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          1. Romus. You are correct. They brought in Hellsley and had led in game 1 going to 9th. Maybe was 2-1 or even 2-0. I was listening to game in car waiting on grandkid to get back from driving school. I like to use good fortune, but luck sometimes is the same. Just so many things can happen either good or bad.

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    2. The offense, and consistent offense, is hugely important, no doubt. But these games are often very close and the team that can shut down the opposition in the late innings has a much better chance of succeeding. The 2024 Phillies bullpen is in a much better place than the 2022 and 2023 versions and the addition of Estevez was huge. It guarantees nothing, but they have a much better chance of success because of this.

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       1. So when bases are loaded, a ground ball between short and third scores 2 and the batter is a hero. If the ball is a couple of feet either way, it’s caught and the batter hits into a double play and he’s a bum. All we can ask come playoff time is for our guys to throw strikes, catch the ball and put the ball in play… good fundamental baseball. If we do that, we have a shot… no guarantees.

          I’m looking forward to a fun ride this October!

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          1. Of course a ton of this is random (even the great Mariano Rivera was responsible for losing a World Series), but the more talent you have, the less random it becomes and the greater the odds are that your team will prevail.

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       2. I agree the BP is much better right now than either of the last two years. Hope for the best.

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18. Craig Kimbrel DFA d by the Os

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19. The Orioles really do like giving chances to Phillies’ players.

    The Orioles DFAd Cristian Pache in August. They DFAd Nick Maton and Cole Irvin last Saturday. The Orioles just DFAd Craig Kimbrel.

    Seranthony Dominguez has a 3.26 ERA but 5.14 FIP.

    Gregory Soto has a 6.59 ERA but 4.34 FIP.

    Zach Eflin has a 2.22 ERA but 3.42 FIP.

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    1. It’s become pretty clear to me that the Orioles became very good at identifying and developing young talent, but they don’t know how to build a playoff roster and I cannot imagine they will go far in the playoffs.

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       1. The Orioles will also have some decisions to make as they have a bunch of key FAs who are looking to get paid: Corbin Burnes, Anthony Santander. Even John Means, who has battled injuries for 3 years, will be a FA and will likely get a raise from his current $3M salary.

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    2. O’s are hemorrhaging right now going down the stretch.

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    3. They do. O’s have some really good players, but they are missing some key pieces still. I do not see them in for a long time so that probably means they go to the WS. I just do not think it will be this year.

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20. Its the bullpen – the middle relievers, and the starting pitching which has been hurt by injuries. They still can hit though – and ultimately, are a better team than the Yankees if they hadn’t lost so many key pitching talents. Burnes has been very mediocre in August as well.

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21. Romus. I have not seen anyone post this but one of the Phillies nemesis the Dbacks are in serious danger of missing playoffs. Both Mets and Braves may pass them. I am sure you know this. In the expanded playoff not just the last year or so how often has the two teams from the previous WS not made the playoffs? May happen this year now.

    Tigers may pass Twins as well.

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    1. I know of once, in 2006 World Series it was the Tigers vs Cardinals, and in 2007, neither of them made the playoffs….there may be more.

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22. Taijuan Walker will start tomorrow against the Mets…maybe he has found his mojo. If so, he then will get his last start of the year at home vs the Cubs next week.

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    1. oldruff will be thrilled. He actually brought it up yesterday that he would get start. I agree he deserves chance. No one took it away from him

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23. Also, according to T Mac Topper really wants the 1 seed. So, I expect to see Phillies going with main guys till that is accomplished or not possible. I am sure when they clinch a guy here and there will get a day off but mostly pedal to the metal. He referenced the Phillies 28-13 record at CBP. But I remember the Cards 1-0 game and those last two a year ago. 31 and 10 would be a lot nicer. I guess 1 would have done trick a year ago.

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24. I know the Wild Card teams have done well the past few years (see Phillies v. Braves) but I’d still rather have the top seed and home field throughout. A first round bye is the only guarantee to the 2nd round.

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25. Brewers have clinched the Central….Cubs lost o the A’s this afternoon.

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    1. Romus you just beat me. You are so fast. Game just ended. Thanks to your guy Mason Miller. BTW I see Joe Girardi is a post-game guy for the Cubs. Maybe the Brewers rest guys tonight.

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       1. Nah……Murphy will have them busting it….they want that first round bye. No champagne now…Ginger Ale

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          1. Plus they still have to figure out what they’re giving to Chourio (in front of the cameras) since he’s only 20.

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             1. Yeah…..that would sure cause a stir with the league offices if he is seen sipping down a glass of the bubbly. Maybe wear the goggles and they cannot identify him!

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26. Romus. Brew Crew are 4 down. Really hard to make up in only a few games. Plus, tiebreaker is now the Phillies as well. They are all going to be relaxing in the dugout. I am just kidding.

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    1. I think they are two games behind the Dodgers….though Dodgers have Miami and six with Colorado left, but sandwiched in there is a three game series with the Padres.

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27. So, the pregame show is discussing Turner’s future at short, with both Ricky Bo and Amaro skeptical (especially RB) I. The fact that is happening there suggests it might happening in the front office. I just hope Bryce has provided a role model for him for changing positions.

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    1. Where else is he going to play? Second? Maybe – if you jettison Stott. He could probably play centerfield, but what about Crawford? And you can’t assume he can play third – that’s a very different skill set.

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       1. It is going to be a difficult decision to be made if Turner has to be moved off of shortstop. The options are limited…….then there will be Miller in 3, but just maybe even 2 years, ready to make his move in the infield at CBP. I suppose LF is a possibility if Marsh moves over to RF when Casty’s contract is done. I really wish they live Stott at 2B…he has a very good chance for a GG there.

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          1. ‘leave’ vs live

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          2. Stott is very good defensively but will need to hit better than he has this year.

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28. Another no decision for Nola despite a monstrous performance. The team better get the win for a consolation prize.

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29. Again too many strikeouts. Something they need to improve for the playoffs or it will be a short playoff run.

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30. So much for that crap about if we have 16 k’s we win!

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    1. Guys like Stott, Rojas, and Stubbs can’t be striking out multiple times each night. They don’t have enough power to justify taking such big swings.

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       1. I also noticed tonight in one of Stott’s at bats he winced and had to massage his hand/wrist in much the same manner as Harper and Bohm have done lately.

          I agree with you, just square it up and make contact. All 3 of them would be better hitters.

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       2. The real worry is Stott since he’s going to play every game. Stubbs will get maybe 2 starts the rest of the regular season and he likely won’t be playing at all in the playoffs. Rojas should be relegated to a platoon facing lefties. And he won’t be playing as much as he did last season in the playoffs.

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31. The loss is primarily on the offense, no doubt.

    But my real concern is Estevez. I have not been as enamored by him as others, but I figured the results were good so it wasn’t worth thinking about. But I’ve had a sinking feeling that play off teams will exploit him and tonight did not help me feel better. He looked BAD.

    Hopefully that’s just the Philadelphian in me and it’s just a one-off bad night.

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32. I think everybody realizes by now that Rojas is not the answer in CF. He’s just not hitting enough (0.2 oWar).

    Justin Crawford just had a slash of .313/.360/.444 across 2 levels as a 20 year old. The last time Rojas had a slash like this in the minors was when he was 22 at AA.

    If Crawford comes into ST and starts ripping it, I would be ok with Crawford making the team out of ST.

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    1. Yeah Rojas’ sampling now is more than enough to know he may never be an offensive impact player…..well, maybe not as much as Crawford is projected to be.

       As for all the strikeouts……listening to the manager post game and he reflected on the fact that the Ks are a too much, and they may have to be more concentrated on a two-strike approach at the plate. MLB players are creatures of habit…memory or muscle or whatever, just not sure they all can adapt to that approach…Casty for example as one may have a hard time doing that.

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    2. No, I don’t realize Rojas isn’t the answer in CF yet. He’s in a difficult situation as a young player who’s now getting random starts 2-3 times a week.

       Next year they either need to put him in CF and let him play like they claimed was going to happen this year or they need to send him to AAA and let him play every day to see if his offense develops. They do need to get him to cut down on his swing and not try to swing so hard.

       Crawford might be the long-term answer in CF but he needs the same opportunity to play every day, either in the majors or at AAA.

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       1. Rojas started the season playing every day. From March-May, he played in 48 games. But when you’re a team looking to win, you can’t have a guy with a sub .600 OPS even with his elite defense. The Phillies don’t have time to wait and that’s why Rojas has lost playing time.

          Rojas’ minor league numbers are not great. Only 2 years ago he posted a .663 OPS across 2 levels as a 21 year old.

          WHEN Crawford comes up, he’s playing everyday. He’ll have his elite defense and at the minimum, he’ll make way more contact than Rojas.

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          1. Why do you mention his minor league season as a 21-year-old but not his .845 OPS year at a higher level and his .771 OPS in the majors as a 22-year-old only last year?

             This year they said he was going to play every day and when he got off to a slow start, he was sent down to AAA where he hit extremely well in a very small sample, so they immediately called him back up. If they didn’t think he was ready, then leave him at AAA instead of calling him back up and then playing him sporatically.

             Maybe Crawford in the long-term answer, maybe not. He had a terrific year between A+ and AA ball this year and looks like a potential everyday regular.

             He still needs to make that jump from AA to AAA/Majors.

             Just not ready to pull the plug on the 23-year-old Rojas based on a bad offensive year in the Majors.

             I remember many fans being ready to discard a guy named Bohm after a bad first full season in the majors too and he was 2nd in ROY voting the previous season.

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             1. In general and always corresponding with age, success in the lower minors is almost a requirement in order to become a starter in the bigs. You can argue that Rojas’ first good minor league season was 2022, where he had a .845 OPS as a 22 year old. That already is a red flag for me considering that was his 4th full season stateside.

                Maybe you don’t want to give up on Rojas, but I believe the Phillies know what they have in him already. It’s a cruel business and I think that if some other team gives decent trade value, Rojas is gone.

                Bohm is going to get a longer leash and more opportunities because he’s a former #3 pick and he was ranked in the top 50. Rojas was never ranked. It’s the same reason why Mickey Moniak made it to the bigs with middling minor league numbers.

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                1. Well, I guess you could argue his first good season in the minors was in 2023 but that would be incorrect.

                   Rojas had a good year as a 17-year-old in 2018 and was ok across 2 levels in 2019. He missed the entire season in 2020 so that was a lost season. he was good in his return across 3 levels in 2021 before having a sub-par year in 2022.

                   Seems to me that’s a fairly good minor league history.

                   Johan Rojas Minor, Winter & Fall Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

                   By the way, Ryan Howard was never ranked either so not sure that’s the best way to evaluate prospects.

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                2. Ryan Howard was ranked by Baseball America. Before he reached the majors, he never had an OPS lower than .828 in the minors. And he was already blasting HRs.

                   The Phillies moved Jim Thome to make room for Ryan Howard.

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                3. You are correct …Howard was ranked 27th by BA in Jan. 2005

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33. Its really difficult to find exceptional CFs that can also hit. The league is littered with a number of them still floating around…

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    1. The best bat on this team for CF is Marsh……he is average defensively out there, so there is a trade-off that would have to be made. Crawford, when he is ready, could b the answer, both defensively and at the plate

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       1. That is how I would play it and then just bring Rojas in late when we have the lead…

          I like Clemons bat the best as a LHB but not sure he is adequate enough in the OF against righties. Same with Wilson for an upside offensive player just don’t know if over the span of the playoffs that would be too much of a drop off defensively.

          Both players almost always give you an excellent AB and have the potential for HRs.

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34. 3up & anyone ……….. enjoyed the Rojas discussion and was going to chime-in, but my contribution would just have been repeat conversation. Good points by all.

    I don’t want to see Crawford handled the way Rojas was handled. Rojas needed a year at AAA. I think his bat and confidence and mental awareness would be much better if he had been given that year. They sent him down and then jerked him back up right away to cover for injuries. He still needs that year IMO.

    The predicament that I see is this …….. you can’t have Rojas and Crawford both at AAA, it would be counter productive to what you want to accomplish. Essentially you are sacrificing the ones development for the other ……. so you develop the one who has the most potential (C) and relegate the other to the role he has (R). Unfortunately for Rojas, the School of Hard Knocks is a tough teacher. You can still graduate, but it is easier I think if you complete all the course work and don’t skip classes.

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    1. Agree that the Phillies will have to make a decision with Rojas/Crawford for 2025 and also think that Crawford would benefit from a year in AAA to see if he can maintain.

       My take is to start 2025 with Rojas as the everyday CF in the majors and Crawford in AAA. When you get to July, can adjust from there depending on how both guys are playing.

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    2. Phils need to prioritize the development of Justin Crawford in the hope that by mid-2025 he can contribute as a 6/7 bat in the order and play high level defense in CF. I see no indication that Rojas can fulfill both those roles, as good as he is at the latter.

       And if Crawford starts slow next year in AAA, I would leave him at Lehigh Valley for an entire year as necessary. He needs to play full time in Lehigh Valley until he’s ready to play full time at Citizens Bank. Rojas wasn’t afforded that and his development may have been impacted permanently.

       .So far, the Phils haven’t gotten the upgrade in LF the Phils tried for at the trade deadline. Hays, when healthy, hasn’t been an upgrade not has Marsh. So, the conditions that led the Phils to trade for Hays still pertain. I can see pursuing an upgrade at the position this off-season.

       This leaves Marsh and Rojas as placeholders barring substantial sudden improvement. I’m not in a hurry to get rid of either but not in a hurry to rely heavily on either.

       Having seen Hays play a fair bit in Baltimore, I was expecting more from him when he was healthy. Barring an end-of-season spark, he for me would be an off-season casualty to a roster upgrade in LF, as Hays doesn’t enter into the CF discussion.

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       1. Not sure how you can say that Hays is not the answer after 19 games in a Philadelphia uniform. DD traded for him and he’s going to get a shot next season to prove himself. I don’t think he’s going anywhere.

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          1. On a different type of team, I would agree with you. Or regarding a player with less of a track record than Hays. The Phils have hard decisions to make soon on veterans like Hays unless those players make the decisions easier.

             If Hays looked like a guy who could play every day in LF, you could pencil in Marsh as a future successor to Castellanos when Casty’s contract comes up., But Hays has not impressed against right-handed pitching just as he didn’t recently in Baltimore.

             A good move for the Phils would be to sign Anthony Santander in free agency to play a corner OF spot (LF then RF) for the Phils for easily the next 4 years. Waiting on Hays while aging vets age further doesn’t sound like a Dombrowski strategy.

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             1. “…. sign Anthony Santander in free agency to play a corner OF spot”…….logistically and financially that may not be feasible. The 30-year old Santander will easily command a large LTC…maybe minimum 4yrs/$80M based on last three years of an OPS+ of 120 or higher and average career OPS+ of 114. Not sure Middleton wants to get into any tax threshold penalties. And then there is the OF logjam that will further be accentuated. I’d think the Phillies would pass on that signing.

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                1. When the Phils missed out last year, they didn’t stand pat in the off-season,,adding Merrifield in free agency. I f the same happens on the field this year, I expect perhaps a bigger move this time.

                   Adding Santander and subtracting Hays has cost consequences but some contender will be signing Soto putting pressure on other GM’s.

                   I don’t recognize an OF logjam. I see an OF with a bunch of 2 and 3 tool players inferior to the OF’s of all other NL contenders. And I don’t khfritz@see guys improving. If you told me Crawford was guaranteed to be a starter by mid-year 2025, I’d still sign Santander or someone comparable. An OF of Satander-Crawford-Castellanos with Marsh and Rojas filling in is an improvement but doesn’t represent a burdensome glut.

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35. After back to back 16 K games, the Phillies get Severino tonight. He only struck out 5 or 6 on Saturday. What amazed me about last night’s game is that out of the 16 strikeouts, Schwarber did not whiff at all.

    I know and you know (if anyone pays attention to my offerings) that I’ve been writing that Walker is going to give the team 5 solid innings tonight. Rack it up to wishful thinking but I believe he still has it in him.

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    1. Ciada …… I just called my “bookie” you are on Record, bet my 401k on Walker solid thru 5.😉

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       1. I think you meant to say “so lit thru 5.”

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36. oldruff – Thanks for the vote of confidence. I imagine that 5 innings with 2 ERs would be a solid outing.

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    1. Walker giving them 5 innings with 2 ER would be an exceptional outing for him. I’m hoping for more like 4 innings with 3 runs.

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    2. Walker going against old teammates with the added clinch factor for the Phillies…may be all he needs to bring out the best in him.

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37. I would take 5 innings tonight and 3 runs or less from Walker. These last two weeks are going to be fun. Almost every team in the playoff hunt has something to continuing to play for these next few games at least. Appears only Houston in the AL is a lock for the 3 seed. The other 5 are still up for grabs. Baltimore has edge for 4 seed, but they have really struggled lately. In the NL still 3 teams vying for seeds 1 and 2. San Diego may be closest to a lock at 4 seed. Then 2 or 3 among Arizona, Mets, and Braves. I thought Arizona was a lock a couple weeks ago, but they are hanging on by a tread now. So, it could be Pads vs Mets in 4 vs 5. I would not mind that matchup. At least eliminate one at the beginning.

    Phillies need to win a couple of these games this weekend to keep that 1 or 2 seed in place.

    Guess that 34 game win streak ended last night with starter going at least 7. That is still a great mark.

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38. So the Reds are going blown out in Cincinnati by the Braves and I was wondering what the heck they’re doing over there. Holy smokes, do they have injury issues: 1 on 10 day IL, 5 on 15 day IL, and a whopping 9 on 60 day IL! 4 of their pitching starters are hurt and the 5th was Frankie Montas who was traded to the Brewers. So their top 5 pitching starters are not available which is crazy to see.

    Compare that to the Phillies where Austin Hays will likely be activated before the season is over and we have 3 guys on the 60 day IL: Ortiz, Castro, Turnbull.

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    1. Probably a few of the 10/15 day ILs are guys they just want to shut down for the season, that may have a nagging injury that ordinarily they could play thru if it were June or July.

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39. Sale got his 18th win today….looks like the NL Cy Young will be between Sale and Wheeler. Sale currently edges Wheeler out in metrics like WAR, ERA+, FIP and the standard W-L column. With perhaps two starts left apiece, Wheeler could still draw a little closer and make it a photo finish

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    1. absent a huge collapse in his last two starts, it’s not going to be close. Sale will win.

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    2. Sale is going to win it easily because the National media is already pumping him for the award.

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       1. He’s also just had a better year than Wheeler in basically every conceivable way. This isn’t like in 2021 where it was a case of Burnes having some better numbers, but in a lot fewer innings. Sale has just been better outright.

          So we just gotta get Wheeler a ring instead.

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40. Well he got those two ERs out of the way early, oldruff.

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41. Dan ……….. just strategy to lull them asleep, he’ll get serious now and really buckle down!

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    1. Yeah, I’m sure your 401K is safe.

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       1. Do you have any incite into “reverse mortgages”?

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          1. I know they’re less risky than letting Taijuan Walker start a game.

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       2. Wait, the bet was for 2 ER per inning, right?

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          1. Willy the “Weasel” just called …….. wanted to know if I wanted to do wire transfer or bitcoin.🤔

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    2. oldruff. I just got home from volleyball. Looks like Long Gone returned to form. It was 7-3 but now 9-3. Oh well. Always tomorrow.

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42. Amazing the Phillies can’t find a 5th starter. Not asking for Cy Young but someone who can pitch a semi professional five innings.

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43. I’m gonna need someone to screenshot this pitching line, print it, frame it, put in on Thomson’s desk so he doesn’t get any funny ideas ever again.

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44. Remember those 3 innings the last time Walker pitched when we thought that May he doesn’t totally suck? Spoiler alert: he does. Where’s Kyle Kendrick when you need him? They should have claimed Coke Irvin on waivers when they had the chance.

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45. Remember those 3 innings the last time Walker pitched when we thought that May he doesn’t totally suck? Spoiler alert: he does. Where’s Kyle Kendrick when you need him? They should have claimed Coke Irvin on waivers when they had the chance.

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46. Cole Irvin.

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47. It is amazing. But they still need one more outing by someone according to Romus.

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48. This looks like a Stubbs game. He better get his arm loose. May have to go more than one.

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49. Phillies kicking game was not as strong as the Mets. Mets set a franchise record of 3 straight games scoring 10 or more runs. If they extend that to 6 games may be difficult for Phillies to find a win this weekend. Disappointing Phillies put 6 runs on the board but were really never in a competitive situation in the game. Appears it was good the Phillies made those 2 comebacks at CBP. Mets have now won 16 of 20.

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    1. Don…I hope the Mets and Padres hook up in the playoffs….though if the Mets dispose of them, will not look good then facing the Phillies.

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    2. Word to the wise. The Mets are going to be a handful from now going forward. This team was not even supposed to contend for a playoff spot but the GM, to his credit, built a very deep roster and made some smart pick-ups. They also have invested in the minor leagues and they are about ready to load up with more superstar free agents. They are in a good place.

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    3. To the Phillies’ credit, it’s extremely hard to win any game that Walker starts. He is literally the worst starting pitcher I’ve ever watched who got a lot of starts in a single season. I honestly cannot remember anyone who was worse who didn’t get sent down or released. They were stupid and got greedy. They should have kept Walker as the long man and they should try him there next year before they release him. But it’s malpractice to continue to put this guy on the mound for starts. You screwed up Dombrowski. Own it and move on.

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       1. An $18M long man? Just DFA him and move on.

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          1. They are going to pay him anyway. If he can be serviceable (which is unlikely), why wouldn’t you at least give it a try? FYI – I’m not expecting it to work either.

             But, the overall point is that he sucks and they need to move on if he can’t pitch anymore. He’s killing them.

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50. Romus, catch and oldruff. Our guy Walker was pictured on my opening page as I got on computer. Romus. I mentioned that I believe the Mets vs Pads is likely to happen now. Phillies have to be 1 seed which looks less likely given schedule you just gave for Dodgers. If 2 seed Brew Crew may be a handful or Braves/Dbacks.

    Catch. The Mets do look really good. They are most likely with Cohen to stay in that place as well. NL East will be really loaded next few years, and one expects Nats and Marlins with all these young kids to get better. Marlins may only be a one-year wonder like last season but better.

    I agree that Walker has had more chances than most if not all other pitchers would get. The contract is the reason. No idea what the future holds. Guess we can be happy that for 3 innings last Saturday he did not look like Long Gone Walker. Reference for oldruff.

    Kimbrel might be the closest example to being like Walker and even the O’s let him go this week. He has been mostly awful this season in his role.

    If the Phillies do not at least win 1 this week it may still be game on with the Mets for the division. Even as remote as it sounds with 9 games left some of us have long memories of days gone by.

    Lastly. Quick mention of the Tigers. Back at deadline I mentioned that Tigers were like 6 or 7 games back. I got grilled by some here that the Tigers were a long way from being a contender. I had asked about Max Clark and his arrival. Well, this morning they are pretty close to being in the playoffs. They may not make it but like the Mets they almost always have more runs than their opponents do each game. So pretty sure they are happy with the decision at the trade deadline. White Sox are a totally different story.

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    1. Tigers…….I think it would look real nice with the versatile Matt Vierling on the Phillies. But Tigers wanted him for Soto.

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       1. How did that work out?

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    2. I think he should open a concession stand at CBP. A pastry shop offering Walker’s Long Gone Pastry’s.

       Featuring a creme filled round pastry called the “long ball” with homerun written all over it.

       or the “Long Man” which mimics what we know as a longjohn.

       and the “smacker” which is a round pastry “split open” that you hold with two hands about letter high.

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       1. I have done that concession stuff the last 25 years. Maybe he could afford to hire me as an advisor. Believe it or not being unique and neat names are a big plus for a beginner in the pastry business. Need to separate from Tasty Kakes I missed the first 3 innings last night. It was 7-3 when I got home in top of the 4th. Walker was already Long Gone by then. Sounds like he may have been victim of the creme filled Long Ball. Someone mentioned he will not be on playoff roster but who will they replace him with. No one has really taken his spot away.

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51. I’m hoping we’ve all seen Walker for the last time this season. I don’t know if its possible to use the IL without an actual injury but that’s what I would do short of the DFA.

    If the only option is to DFA him to free up that roster spot I don’t even blink.

    For me its more about the years coming up than it is this year. The ground beneath a GM is always moving and you can see some teams gaining ground.

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52. I sure would like to undo that Bailey Falter for Roldolfo Castro trade! Sheeesh, that was a bonehead move.

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    1. Why are we going back to this? Falter’s time in Philadelphia was over. He got numerous opportunities and it didn’t pan out. I had zero issues with that trade when it happened. If he resurrected his career in Pittsburgh, good for him.

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53. Well, I called it on Walker, didn’t I? – I’m not sure if it was on this site or another Phillies site (I’m not on any other site). I predicted Walker would pitch 3 innings (he pitched 3.1). I wrote that he wouldn’t give up over 10 runs (he only gave up 8). And I said he’d give up less than 5 home runs (the Mets only got 4). Man, I really need to get a hobby.

    Seriously though, we know Walker won’t be on the post season roster. However, I don’t believe the Phillies will release him. Thirty six million dollars is too much dead money. I think he will come to spring training (remember, he really didn’t have a spring training), and the Phillies will see where he’s at before they make a decision on him.

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    1. It is too much dead money and they will (and almost have to) give him another chance in ST but all the dead money in the world won’t make him a major league pitcher if he isn’t one anymore.

       Maybe the worst big FA contract ever given out by the Phillies – right up there with Adam Eaton.

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    2. You called it alright ……. my 401K is …… gone, gone, gone!

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54. Walker + $18 M + Austin Hays(1 yr. team control) + any non-top 12 Phils prospec

    to

    Any willing team offering 2 lottery ticket prospects

    Use the salary relief this off-season to bolster the Phils’ OF.

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    1. Trying to wrack my brain on what team would want or even need T Walker . Not sure there are any….maybe some GM may bite on Walker. Further, to trade him, the other team would also need a top ten prospect to go along with TW and inheriting his salary. As they say, GMs love dealing with Dave Dombrowski, he skunks no one in the art of the deal…in fact he may give up more than is necessary.

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       1. Every time I read something about other GMs wanting to deal with DD, it makes me sick.

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          1. For me…it is worrisome when he decides to deal with another GM. First with the Tigers then with the Red Sox, he was able to bring the top stars at a substantial prospect cost….for the Sox it worked out with a ring….Tigers like the Phillies, though, lost in the WS. And not many of his traded top prospects actually turned into superstars, that I am aware of. There were those that became MLB players but not of the impactful star variety. Maybe I missed someone out there in all his trades however.

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             1. You’re right, Randy Johnson never turned into a star 🙂

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                1. Oh yeah……that may have been the biggest…..Mark Langston who was good but never reached what Dombrowski thought he would be for them in Montreal.

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                2. DD has been around for decades. He’s going to have some traded prospects who panned out elsewhere. It comes with the job.

                   As for Walker, if they have to eat 2 years of his deal that sucks but it’s hardly debilitating to the team. That’s the benefits of a big payroll.

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       2. If Walker was a FA, he would have to rehabilitate his value with a 1 year, $3M deal. No good GM would even consider trading for Walker’s remaining contract (2/36). I certainly wouldn’t.

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          1. Walker needs to consult a career doctorfor sure. To be clear, I proposed that the Phils eat 1 of the 2 remaining years on the Walker contract.

             As the salary relief would be useful, I’d offer a good — not great — prospect as a sweetener in the package.

             As for the other team, Walker is not an answer for a contending team. He’s had runs in Seattle and Arizona so scratch them off the list. It wouldn’t be a long list of suitors but it only takes one. Maybe the Phils take back a smaller bad contract to make it happen. A change of scene for Walker would be good all around.

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             1. Now the Phillies are going to find out how hard is it to unload a contract that nobody wants. I mean, they should know already when they couldn’t unload Ryan Howard’s contract (5/125). Similar to how the Nationals couldn’t trade Patrick Corbin.

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                1. It could be worse. They could have done something like the Miguel Cabrera deal (with another tip of the cap to DD) or the Stephen Strasburg contract (maybe the worst of all time).

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55. For those of us who are lamenting the loss of Logan O’Hoppe, he has hit the wall a bit of late. He is 0 for his last 13 and his average has dropped to .233. Last night he had a golden sombrero. His strike out rate is just below 30%.

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    1. He’s been in a bad slump for a couple of months. He missed a lot of last year so this is really his first full major league season and like everybody else will need to make adjustments. Moniak started awful and has come on a little in the past couple of months. He hit 14 hrs last year and 14 this year. While not exactly a power hitter it is more than I ever thought he would hit. His walk/K rate is still nuts 19/109

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56. Phillies clinch playoff spot with Braves loss to Miami.

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57. On Walker, he’s fried. I can’t believe he’s not a serviceable bottom of the barrel #5 MLB starter. I stuck up for him a little bit, thinking he coudl reel together some flashes of his old self to save Middleton some money but …. He looks like a batting practice pitcher out there. The Mets arrogantly over celebrating on their former teammate. That was a bit low imo.

    For DD and GM’s wanting to trade with him… Thats a GREAT thing.. That means DD will always get a call. I bet other GM’s give him last offer. Many times at the deadline a team is rebuilding and the GM trading away the proven player doesn’t want to get hosed. DD’s reputation can come in handy there. As hindsight would have it, he may have missed the boat to see high on 2 pitching arms. I won’t mention them,but you know who they are. If DD did that last year, we’d all be up in arms… but as of this year… y’all be singing a different tune.

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58. oldruff. I heard the MLB guys tonight when they were showing cut ins of the Phillies vs Mets in the early innings that Topper let Long Gone take one for the team last night. Told the media he was not going to use up the main guys in the BP with 3 games still remaining this weekend. So, you may be correct that Long Gone may have that pastry shop up in the left field area. That seems to be where most of the long Gones go as they land.

    Good win for the Phillies tonight. Also, the MLB guys were discussing which team they would fear the most in the playoffs and all 3 Pedro, Plesac and Matty V picked the Padres. So as Romus and I discussed earlier a Mets vs Padres matchup to start may be the best alternative for Phillies and for that matter anyone else.

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    1. For the third time in their history, Phillies have reached the postseason for three years in a row (1976-78 and 2007-11). I see they lifted the champagne glasses up in the locker room and toasted the accomplishment in a more subdued but purposeful celebration with more still needed to be accomplished.

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       1. Romus. Those late 70s teams were very good. Just not quite good enough. Big Red Machine kind of had a stranglehold on things then. Those were my first years at Carmel and all the others were Reds or Cubs fans. Then I believe the Dodgers snuck in 1978. But I do remember the Philly fans essentially booing Burt Hooten off of the mound in one of the games. But most of this group plus Pete did breakthrough a couple years later for the title.

          Here is a question for you or Dan is really good at this stuff as well. Since Walker went on the IL and I believe he was 3-3 at the time. Not sure how many 5th day starts there have been but many. Phillies have had very limited success in the win column. I remember Mercado. He won 1 and then the sky fell. Allard was either just before or after. Believe he won one and we saw his last start. Then Phillips. He had the most success. Maybe 2 or 3 wins then the sky fell. Seth Johnson did not do well in his one appearance. My question is this. How many games have the Phillies won on the 5th day pitcher since the IL stint. Not many. Kind of amazing the Phillies still post the record they do basically giving every game away on the 5th day. Failed to mention that Long Gone has had several starts on that 5th day since returning. I bet he gets the start next week against the Cubs.

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          1. Here are the pitchers:

             Starts….wins (not sure all from the starts)

             Walker….15 …..won 3

             Turnbull…7 …..won 3

             Phillips…7 …..won 4

             Allard……4…won 2

             Mercado….2…won 1

             Johnson…1….won 0

             ***Kerkering-opener-2

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             1. So, everyone not named Walker has won about half of their starts. He has won 20% of his ……$6,000,000 per win.

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                1. Bargain basement. LOL

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          2. In the 154 games played to date..11 different pitchers have started a game.

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59. Romus. I had forgot that Turnbull when Walker was out at the beginning. 15 wins out of 36 starts is not awful. Not playoff caliber but ok. 3 or 15 is less than that. I knew you would know. Only using 11 starters for 154 games is probably one of the lowest. I know Brewers had like 17 or so starters. Plus, most of those 11 go in that 5th starter spot. So, Phillies have been fortunate in that category this season. That is always a good thing.

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    1. Don…as far as total pitchers used by the Phils–starters and relievers – in all their games…it is 29…..one of the lowest in the league….league average is 28……but the league’s average is skewed since the Marlins (45), Dodgers and Angels (39 a piece)….Mets (37) , Brewers (36) and the WSox (35). those six teams jacked up the league average. Phillies are fortunate that many of their key injured pitchers were not season ending or 60 day ILs. I guess that is just luck. Next season could be just the opposite.

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       1. Good fortune is important for success. My senior high school football team went 10-0. We only had 1 game missed by a key player that season. That is good fortune. Sometimes it happens and sometimes it does not. Phillies have been fortunate in that respect.

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60. I know that most of you are going to call me crazy but I truly believe the Phillies should let Walker pitch that last game when they’ll need a #5 starter. Find out for sure if he claims he felt as good as he’s felt all year like he did against the Mets in that debacle Thursday night. They really don’t have much to lose.

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61. ciada. I think they will let him start the game against the Cubs. I do not think Rob wants to disrupt the bullpen guys and now really one game may not be a huge factor at this point. Plus, I do not think they have anyone else on current roster to take that start. I may be wrong there. I am not sure Phillies are going to be too worried at this point on how he feels. I will be shocked if he is on the playoff roster but then again not sure who they replace him with at this point.

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    1. They still have to get the first or second seed……if the Dodgers keep winning then that game vs the Cubs could be critical. If it is, and there is not enough cushion, Walker could be on a very short leash.

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       1. Agree that leash may be short, or it may be like other night. I have no idea. Rob says they want the 1 seed. But do they really want to open with Padres or Mets? Or as some here have mentioned is 2 seed better. I do not know. I do not think Brewers catch the Phillies. I believe they are 4 back again. I know they lost last night. Dodgers have 3 with Padres but they may not mean anything at that point. Until I hear otherwise, I think Walker gets the call. I may be wrong. Not saying it is deserved.

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62. Romus. Philly and LA at 92. They will be 1 or 2. Brewers at 88. They are not going to catch either. SD almost a lock for 4. Then battle for 5 with AZ and Mets. Do not think Atlanta is going to make it now.

    AL. NY and Cleveland will be 1 and 2. Both at 90 now. Houston is 3. O’s will be 4. KC sure has hit the skids like you projected but they are in, I think. Then 1 of Minn and Tigers.

    That is how I see it. Do the Phillies want 1 seed, or do they want the 2 seed? The question Romus is yours? LOL.

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    1. Don…..agree on the NL teams’ playoff future projections. Braves look like they have finally succumbed after last nights defeat at the hands of the Marlins. And this may be it for Charlie Morton.

       Not sure who the Phillies would benefit from playing first……seems AZ has their number, Mets want revenge, and then the Padres who also have a score to settle with the Phillies.

       A number one or two seed …does it matter much and make any difference, especially since the 4 days off seems to ill effect the rested team anymore.

       I think MLB should start the WC cards immediately after the last game on Sunday is completed…start on Monday….three days off for the rested teams.

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63. My post-season roster:

    Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, Sanchez, Hoffman, Estevez, Strahm, Kerkering, Alvarado, Banks, Ruiz, Lazar, Gilbert

    Realmuto, Stubbs

    Harper, Stott, Turner, Bohm, Sosa, Clemens

    Hays, Marsh, Rojas, Castellanos

    Schwarber

    I don’t have any doubt that Hays makes it if he’s game ready. If not, it’s Wilson.

    I don’t see a role for Walker or Allard.

    Stevenson vies with Clemens but I think Topper values Clemens as a clutch bat off the bench.

    There’s no way Marchan replaces Stubbs at this point, barring injury. I think Marchan will play well enough early next season for people to ask if he could have been used earlier and better.

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    1. Obviously 22 guys are a lock….will come down to the last four reserve guys.

       Also see Clemens and Hays. But see Top going with Walker, for whatever reason. And lastly Allard..a lefty……to go along with Alvarado, Strahm and Banks out of the pen.

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64. Wow, so the Nationals demoted CJ Abrams to the minors with 8 games left in the season. He was a 1st time AS with 3.4 WAR. His second half numbers are not great but that wasn’t why he got demoted. He got demoted because he pulled an all-nighter at a Chicago area casino and had an afternoon game the next day. Hard to believe that he thought that was a good idea.

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    1. I guess “no brainer” has a dual application.😏

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65. Are we positive the team didn’t stay out all night celebrating? Because Thomson is certainly managing like he’s hung over.

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    1. What’s the issue here? It was a lefty on the mound and Thomson trotted out the same lineup as yesterday in which that lineup put up 12 runs. Manaea shut them down for 3 hits over 7 innings. How’s that on Thomson?

       Aside from the 2 HRs, the Mets got their runs on bloop hits.

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       1. The bullpen usage was suspect at best.

          Jose Ruiz in a tie game is questionable. Leaving in a laboring Kerkering when he literally could not find the strikezone, and had a walk and HBP in his first two faced, was inexcusable. Oh, and having Alvarado be the only one getting ready when he was struggling.

          It’s easy to say they only scored on bloop hits, but he wasn’t missing bats and he had to throw his sweeper in the zone because he couldn’t get strikes any other way.

          Obviously there’s only so much you can do about one of your best relievers having an off day. But one of those things is to let ANOTHER one of your best relievers pick up the slack.

          How is it we saw Kerkering, Strahm, and Hoffman pitch in a blowout yesterday, but only one of them was available today in a winnable game?

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          1. Dan…..agree with the bullpen usage….I scratch my head at times. It does appear that some decisions are illogical from what I have been use to seeing over the last 60 years or so. But what do I know. There always seems to be a manager who will make a decision that on face value, makes no sense, but there must be some rational reason behind it.

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          2. I thought yesterday’s usage was more suspect but I guess Thomson wanted that game badly. After Kerkering in the 6th and the Phillies now with a 10-2 lead, I would have went with Alvarado or Banks. And not sure why Tyler Gilbert only went 1 inning after only 10 pitches.

             I was ok with Ruiz in the 6th, he’s been very good lately. I think yesterday’s usage impacted today. Perhaps if Strahm didn’t pitch yesterday, he might have been able to pitch in the 7th instead of Kerkering.

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             1. I’m good with saying that the night before was even worse bullpen management.My issue with Ruiz is that, despite the ERA suggesting he’s pretty decent, his underlying metrics point to a decidedly average reliever. Which is fine, but he is not the guy that should be first out of the ‘pen in a tie game. Especially since he’s, at best, our FIFTH best reliever.

                But I genuinely do not understand why Strahm wasn’t at least warming up after Orion walked the leadoff guy. He’s pitched twice in the past 11 days. We know he can go back-to-back days. Hoffman’s pretty much in the same boat. Not even close to being overworked lately and has no issues going two days in a row.

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66. Brewers loss means magic # for a 1st round bye is now 3. Magic number remains 2for the division.

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67. Arizona has kind of eliminated Brewers for the bye I feel. Appears Dbacks are back on track again after a slight lull. Do the Phillies want the 1 seed or the 2 seed is really the question? Both are at 92 wins, so it is up for grabs. Most likely Phillies have a loss when that 5th spot rolls around again. So, in the remaining 6 they need to beat the Dodgers by 1 for a tie.

    Romus. Tigers may slip in ahead of both KC and Minny. Both have really hit the skids. Tigers only 1 game back of KC for 5th. That may be the most amazing thing of these playoff pursuits.

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    1. Those Tigers are on a roll…wish Vierling was still in Philly.

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68. Love the comment about Ol Hoppe , your jinx didnt work, 4 for 4 with his 20th homerun last night,

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    1. rocco…….LOH , for where he was drafted, has really come along way. He beat all the odds.

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69. Rocco. Are you still in Louisville? Romus. There is always someone in the room to criticize you. LOL. Vierling has Indiana connections. Did you note my post where Smoltz mentioned that Schwarber only had 2 schools with baseball interest in him. IU and Cincy. Even up to a few years ago baseball did not have much leverage in colleges. Both baseball and softball do now with new scholarship rules and the NIL. Schwarbs had many in football. That was how it was back in my time. I do think Tigers get in. Not sure now on my KC pick.

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70. Moffo – What do you mean “my” jinx? I was only stating a fact and I mentioned those of “us” who were lamenting the trade. I hope the kid becomes an all star and I was just going to comment on his 4-4 night. Try not to be so devisive.

    On another note, last week I wrote that it would be good for the Phillies to win at least 3 of the 7 games with the Mets. A win tonight would be 4. I’m hoping that they can come out scoring and give Wheeler a lead so he could coast.

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71. The White Sox are now at 119 losses. With 7 games to go (Padres, Angels, Tigers), the 120+ loss record will be theirs to hold for all time. Never say never, but I don’t think I’ll ever see a team worse than the White Sox in my lifetime. They just can’t hit at all. The crazy thing is that when the season started, they had a higher payroll than the Guardians and the Royals. The White Sox are year 2 in paying 5/75 to Andrew Benintendi, who has been awful. What a brutal team.

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    1. You gotta feel especially bad for anyone that gets traded there. It’s one thing for the guys who chose them in FA for whatever (money) reasons. But the ones who had no say in the matter and now just have to hope they can keep their head above water enough to get a contract somewhere else must be depressed.

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72. I would not feel for Crochet. He kind of set his place with his demands. He may get moved this, Winter. Would be a waste if he stays a few more years. But KC lost over 100 a year ago and may make the playoffs in 24. So, one never knows for sure.

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    1. Don …wonder what the Phillies season would have looked like if the Braves had not lost Acuna, Albies and Riley for close to a combined 220 games and Strider for 30 starts. I did a quick check of their WAR vs per career games and the total of the four would have totaled close to a conservative 11WAR in games missed and/or pitching starts. Phillies were fortunate in that regards……JTR was out for awhile with the knee and Turner with the hammy and Ranger with the back but nothing like the total number of missed games by the Braves.

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       1. Romus. Phillies season may be similar. Were they not 6-7 or 7-6 vs Braves? But I think one could say on the conservative side the Braves would have at least 10 more wins. Most likely closer to 15. Remember like the Phillies streak of I think 34 wins in a row when starter went at least 7. Braves had this crazy one and it still occurs where they lost like 27 games in a row at the beginning of the season when opponent scored 3 or more runs. That would not have happened if guys had stayed healthy. But injuries are a part of the game. Good fortune just makes it so much easier to be successful

          Phillies have lost some games like you mentioned but all the guys have come back. Braves were not so lucky.

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       2. Braves have gotten their share of good fortune. Chris Sale (age 35) has been healthy all season. The last time he had 25+ starts was 2019. He’s going to regress next year. Reynaldo Lopez (age 30) has pitched out of his mind and the last time he pitched this many innings was also 2019. He’s due to regress. Marcell Ozuna (age 33) having a bounce back year. Not banking on Ozuna doing that next season.

          The Braves will lose Max Fried to FA. Charlie Morton, who’s pitched at a replacement level, will likely retire. One of their top relievers, AJ Minter, is also a FA.

          The Braves will have their issues next season, like all teams.

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73. It’s going to be interesting to see what the Phillies will do with Carson Taylor. After joining the Phillies and not catching anymore, his offensive numbers have went way up. He’ll start the year at Lehigh, but he’s pretty much 1B/DH and obviously the Phillies are set there.

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    1. Hall’s replacement at AAA and injury insurance.

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74. So who’s going to give Max Sherzer at age 40 a 1 year, $25M deal? The Braves? The Blue Jays?

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    1. Phillies should have interest. Would be a good stop-gap to get to Painter later in the season.

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75. Will say this team is going nowhere in the playoffs if they don’t tighten up the pitch chasing. JTR and Clemens with terrible at-bats in the 7th.

    Way too many strikeouts the last week.

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    1. Schwarber and Harper both look like they need a breather.

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76. Well, the hundred million dollar lineup laid an egg for the second day in a row. A terrible waste of another great outing by Wheeler. In the playoffs, they are going to face the best pitching in all of baseball. I just hope it doesn’t duplicate what the Diamondbacks did to them at the end of last season.

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77. Romus. The Mets in the 9th inning got good fortune on the throw to 3B. Not sure I have ever seen that happen. Normally down the baseline or off the base and rolls forever foul or back towards the infield. This time nicely lands just in front of 3B.

    My biggest take from last night is the waste of another one of Wheeler’s great performances. Romus you will know the number he has pitched really well only to get a Loss or No Decision because of a complete lack of run support.

    I am as big of Phillies fan as anyone even though I am in Indiana. I do not get a good vibe on this team for this season. I hope I am wrong. But I have been around this game for a long time and sometimes you just get a sense things may not go as you hope.

    I totally agree on the swing and miss stuff. I posted a week or so ago that I felt that was an area the team had improved in recently. I am completely wrong on that thought. I realize as someone will say that guys throw hard. But last night for instance there were several swings on pitches that were never in the strike zone after they left the pitcher’s hand. I get it that a guy will throw a great pitch that moves away at the last second. Wheeler was doing that on the right-handed guys of the Mets last night.

    Well Phillies need to win one more or at least have Mets lose one to Braves. Rob talks about the Phillies wanting the 1 seed but I am not really sure they do. In the NLCS if they make it and win 1 or first 2 games, they have the next 3 at CBP even if they end up the 2 seed. One more week to go so time to saddle up and let things play out as they will.

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    1. Nola tonite ….he may just do it, and maybe they will get some timely hitting to back him up. I was a little surprised the team is middle of the pack in strikeouts…thought they would be higher…Padres hitters are the team with the fewest Ks/

       https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024.shtml

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       1. Romus ………… I take no solace in being average in K’s. I told my insurance company I am average in auto accidents ….. they said ……. too bad your monthly rate is going up. Average is not good, especially in negative categories. There were a couple K’s last nite (JT) for one, where he K’d on ball 4 twice.

          Happy thought, on the recap if that was Hall’s departure he leaves us with a hug and a wink. I really enjoyed him and there aren’t many I can say that about. Almost like he was family or a good friend and I never met the guy. Wish him well.

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          1. Yep….hope Hall resurfaces someday back in the majors , if just for a brief time now as he approaches 30-years old..there have been a few position players who went Asian and then got a call back for a few productive MLB years…Thames and Ruf were two I can think of.

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       2. Believe I have seen that Arizona is a good contract team as well. All the little things will become big things in a week or so as to your team’s success or lack of it.

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          1. contact

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78. If Paul Skenes doesn’t win ROY, it’ll be an outrage in Pittsburgh. He has a 1.99 ERA in 22 starts! His ERA+ is 213!!!

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    1. Merrill has been really solid and up the whole season and a full year younger than Skenes. If I had a vote I’d go with the position player over the SP.

       And that’s not to take away from Skene’s dominance. I’m sure that is how the voters will go too. Skenes for the ROY.

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       1. Jackson Chourio has been up the full year, has been really solid, and is a full year younger than Merrill. To me, it should go to the best rookie, and age doesn’t factor into it. Skenes has been the best starter in the majors since he was called up — he has 6.0 WAR, more than Wheeler has for the whole year, and, in fact, more than every pitcher except for Sale and Skubal, who will be the two Cy Young Award winners.

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          1. In fact, the last time an NL rookie had 6.0 or more WAR was in 2013, when the late, great Jose Fernandez put up 6.6 WAR.

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          2. If Skenes doesn’t pitch on Saturday, he will have the lowest ERA ever for a starting rookie pitcher.

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79. Seeing in a Sporting News article that it is being projected that Estevez will get a deal in the 69M dollar range. Let someone else have him for that.

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80. Closing this discussion.

    New one at

    Phillies Discussion, 9/23/24 | Phuture Phillies

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