2024 Draft, Day Three and Beyond: July 16

2024 Draft

The Phillies Made 20 selections in the Rule 4 Draft over the past 3 days.  Within hours of the Draft’s completion, they had signed at least 3 undrafted free agents. 

Their first two picks were prep outfielders.  The next 5 were college underclassmen and position players.  The remaining 13 picks were all college players including 12 pitchers; all 10 day three picks were pitchers. The 3 undrafted signees were 2 college seniors and a juco soph.

The draft breakdown is as follows (round, pick, $, Pos., Name, Class) –

  1. 27th overall: $3,228,300 – OF, Dante Nori, HS
  2. 63rd overall: $1,352,000 – OF, Griffin Birkholder, HS
  3. 100th overall: $730,500 – SS, John Spikerman, 4YR JR
  4. 130th overall: $545,400 – SS, Carson De Martini, 4YR JR
  5. 162nd overall: $399,600 – OF, Carter Mathison, 4YR JR
  6. 192nd overall: $310,300 – C, Kodey Shojinaga, 4YR SO
  7. 222nd overall: $244,300 – OF, Joel Dragoo, 4YR JR
  8. 252nd overall: $204,400 – LHP, Camron Hill, 4YR JR
  9. 282nd overall: $188,200 – RHP, Marcus Morgan, 4YR JR
  10. 312th overall: $178,800 – SS, Brady Day, 4YR SR
  11. 343rd overall: $150,000 – RHP, Titan Hayes, 4YR SR
  12. 373rd overall: $150,000 – LHP, A.J. Wilson, 4YR GR
  13. 403rd overall: $150,000 – RHP, Tegan Cain, 4YR JR
  14. 433rd overall: $150,000 – LHP, Jared Spencer, 4YR JR
  15. 463rd overall: $150,000 – RHP, Luke Gabrysh, 4YR JR
  16. 493rd overall: $150,000 – RHP, Eli Trop, 4YR SR
  17. 523rd overall: $150,000 – RHP, Ryan Degges, 4YR JR
  18. 553rd overall: $150,000 – LHP, Kevin Warunek, 4YR JR
  19. 583rd overall: $150,000 – LHP, Erik Ritchie, 4YR JR
  20. 613th overall: $150,000 – RHP, Kyler Carmack, 4YR JR
  21. undrafted: $150,000 – RHP, Zack Tukis, 4YR SR
  22. undrafted: $150,000 – 3B, Raider Tello, 4YR 5S
  23. undrafted: $150,000 – C, Luke Davis, JC J2

Undrafted free agents are capped at $150,000.  Any amount exceeding $150K counts against the bonus pool, just like any overages count against the pool for their 20 picks.

What’s next?

It doesn’t appear that any of the college selections will command over slot bonus money.  Any savings from under slot signings will likely be needed to sign the 2 prep players. drafted at one and two.

All along we had heard reports that this was not a draft class with many if any great prospects.  In fact, some considered it an average class; though, just before the draft I heard an analyst describe it as deep.

I don’t think the Phillies drafted for need.  I think they took the player they deemed the best available.  I would guess that they considered the available pitchers as very similar and were comfortable waiting until the eighth round to finally begin selecting them.

The signing deadline for Rule 4 draft picks is 5:00 PM August 1st.  Any pick not signed can re-enter the draft next season or return to school.

The Florida Complex League regular season ends on July 25th.  The playoffs will be over by July 30th at the latest.

The Florida Bridge League begins a 16-game schedule on July 29th.  Schedule concludes on September 6th.

It’s very unlikely that any new players sign and play in the FCL.  The Phillies have usually held a one-week introductory period for new players.  The Florida Bridge League roster will surely be made up of some FCL players, some rehabbing players, and eventually some of this year’s new signees.  It is likely that a couple new signees are assigned to Low-A Clearwater.  It is also likely that some pitchers do not throw in any of the games.

The 2024 Draft Tracker will be updated as picks and signings are announced.  As in previous years, NDFA’s will be included in the draft tracker.

If you read about a signing, put it in the comments section so I can include it in the tracker.  Please include the link so I can record that too.

 

65 thoughts on “2024 Draft, Day Three and Beyond: July 16”

  1. So they draft a high school player with the first two picks, although Nori could almost be considered a JC because of his age and even Burkholder is slight older than the average high school senior, then a JC with the last pick, and 20 4th year college kids in-between. I don’t get it, but you have to have faith in their drafting ability. There must be reasons.

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  2. I agree NL. They have earned us having a little faith but this draft has me scratching my head and having my faith stretched. Now I read here from Jim that we might need any savings to sign our first 2 picks when I thought Nori was a bit of a reach at 27 and might save close to a million for a later pick to steal a kid away from college. I guess I’ll have to trust the process.

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  3. Perhaps Nori will rake in the remaining FCL season, and next season in the FCL/CLW, that will keep him on progressive age appropriate level. But he will find it difficult keeping to that standard if he ends up repeating a level along the way up the ladder. Case in point, Jordan Viars turns 21 years old tomorrow and now at JS…..he had already been at CLW (rookie and low-a) for the last three plus years.

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    1. Listen, this age appropriate issue, is a real issue and a real concern. However, in my view, it is a much bigger concern for players who are raw toolshed types. But that’s not Nori. He’s a very developed high school player in almost every way. If his skills are that developed and he’s that good, he should move through the system pretty quickly. And if he’s not that good, my guess is that we will know that fairly quickly and he won’t have a long-term path forward.

      Liked by 1 person

      2. Agree…..all the tools are evident, except hitting, it is the only questionable tool to some analyst….and that is only because he has faced underage pitching (17 and 18- year old) in HS up to this point. So soon it will interesting to see how he does.

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        1. No, the hit tool IS evident and supposedly excellent. The only tool he hasn’t shown in-game is HR power.

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          1. Think to Romus’s point the hitting tool is evident against inferior and younger competition.

            Doesn’t mean it won’t also show as he moves through the minors but questions exist for older HS players playing in northern schools.

            I’m more than happy to give him time see what happens and give the team the benefit of the doubt in their assessment but I also have some concerns about taking a soon to be 20-year-old high-school hitter.

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            1. Well, sure, nobody knows how he’s going to perform when he gets against good pitching. Just as nobody knew how Mick Abel would perform when he pitched against better hitting. But if Nori makes it, it will be in large part due to a hit tool – that’s one of his carrying tools and a big part of why he was drafted in the first round. Without the hit tool projection, he’s probably a mid-round pick at best.

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  4. I taught fourth grade for almost thirty years. In 4th grade, kids usually start the year as 9 year olds and turn 10 some time during the course of the school year. It’s a big deal turning ten because now they are “double digits”.

    Occasionally, a kid would turn 11 (and even 12) during that 4th grade year. They were kids who had “stayed back” in an earlier grade or the child who had started kindergarten “late” because (usually) he wasn’t ready yet.

    In other cases, the student who was turning 11 was held back by his parent(s) for the purpose of the kid being at the top of the class rather than being at the bottom or middle of the class. It does happen but not often.

    Sorry I droned on but one of these reasons could be what happened to Nori. I realize it has little to do with his age appropriateness when it comes to where he stands within the minor league timeline. I just find it interesting.

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    1. That happens for sports all the time. My buddy, who has a kid going to play college football this season, says that you would be surprised how many football players are older than their classmates. That way, they are usually bigger and stronger than their peers.

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      1. Indiana is a main proponent of the older athlete. This was going on big time back when I was in high school in the late 60s and early 70s. I played against the 1970 Mr. Basketball from junior high on through his senior year at Carmel. He was over 2 years older but only one grade level. Back then Carmel was just beginning to become one of the main athletic factories and that was a very common practice. It was done during junior high. Could not be held back after that time. At that time if a kid was deemed a potential star, it was pretty normal. Most were really good students. This became common in all sports but at that time basketball which is king in Indiana was the main focus.

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        1. I had a 16 year old classmate in 7th grade. He didn’t pass that year and dropped out. He was a giant farm boy. Ran into him a few years ago. He’s doing fine. School just wasn’t for him.

          he did have the good grace to take it easy on us little guys in gym class 😂

          Liked by 1 person

        2. Petty Ricky, if you don’t have something positive to add don’t comment on someone else’s comment. The guy was relating his experience as a teacher. You aren’t qualified to question him.

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    2. I have coached youth teams …baseball and basketball……every coach or knowledgeable observer can tell the difference in abilities of teenagers within the two year window. Just a one year difference is obvious for virtually most of the young athletes…..you will have the teenage Harpers and Trouts who compete against older kids and stand-out….but they are exceptions to the rule. I have seen the analysts already question the pick against superior pitching, or that of his own age equivalency.

      So I am interested in seeing what happens like most.

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      1. Romus. I think I agree with you, but I get a little confused. True there will always be an exception. Max Clark was an exception. One could tell when he was in the young groups, he was special. Baseball today keeps kids for the most part in the same age bracket. 9U, 12U, 14U etc. But there is at times a really wide difference even there. Some kids are right after the date cutoff and basically a year older than teammates.

        Romus. Just for a funny of your age difference. Mr. Basketball had 39 and 35 in our two games in 1970. I had 38 and 33. But I was 2 years younger age wise. LOL.

        Also just saw that a current IU outfielder Devin Taylor is projected as the number 4 college prospect for 2025 draft. So higher than Phillies will draft. He is very good. Lefty hitter. 18 HR, as frosh and 20 this year. Could be a 25 to 30 guy next season. IU just keeps churning out those outfielders like Schwarbomb. LOL

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  5. Going back to the 2022 draft, what if I told you the Phils were getting the 13th ranked player in his HS class (but old for his class, 19 years and 6 months at the time of the draft, similar to Nori)? https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=481521

    Somehow he turned into an UDFA in 2024. Who knows, maybe there is something there? .910 OPS in the Northwoods League this summer: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=davis-003luk

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  6. Seems like a residing tool in this class, at least in first two days was SPEED and athleticism… more and more teams are trending towards basestealing at MLB level now… just a thought

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    1. Sometimes you can “steal” first base. Look at Rojas. He hits a 40 foot dribbler that he beats out. Steals 2nd, goes to third on a throwing error and scores on a sac fly. A 40 foot dribbler turns into a run. He could have sole second, advanced on an infield out and scored on a sac fly or passed ball. Better than a 400 foot out.

      One of the reasons I do not want Crawford traded. He is even faster than Rojas and is lefthanded so think how many 40 foot dribblers he can turn into a run. You can’t coach speed. BTW, Caba has something like 36 steals.

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      1. I’m a big Rojas believer and think they should put him in CF and let him play but hitting 40-foot dribblers isn’t an offensive strategy.

        Rojas has 15 infield hits in 2024 with a batting average of .134 on balls hit in the IF. His average on balls hit to the OF is .536 so much better for him to hit the ball past the IF and not rely on those dribblers.

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        1. I’m so there with you. I hate when I hear that a team is teaching a fast player to hit the ball on the ground. Fly balls are definitely not a good thing for Rojas. And line drives are great – I’m fine with that. But grounders are generally outs, even for Johan Rojas. You could probably list on one hand the really good hitters over the last 50 years who specialized in hitting grounders and getting infield hits. It’s a failed philosophy and strategy.

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        1. I like the one they pound into the ground and the fielders have to flip their shades down in order to look 😎 up and catch the ball. Rojas usually arrives at 1b about the time they catch it. Can’t wait to see Crawford …… must be like a meteor. Someone here said we should get equal speed in LF and RF, but the collisions might be brutal.

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  8. Nobody says to ‘teach” guys to hit 40 foot dribblers. But it is another tool for very fast guys like Rojas/Crawford. They don’t have to hit frozen rope after frozen rope to get on base. They can manufacture runs once in a while and there is nothing wrong with that.

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  9. Matt Winkleman with his thoughts on this year: https://philliesminorthoughts.com/phillies-2024-draft-day-3-and-overall-thoughts/

    He makes an interesting point about drafting HS students: “Which speaking of high school, the rule changes have really choked the life out of drafting high schoolers. Whether it is bonus pools in relation to NIL money, condensed minor league teams and roster, or other factors that change the risk/reward scale, drafting high schoolers as a real plan is mostly on life support.”

    NIL for baseball hadn’t occurred to me, but NIL is an issue I’ve thought about a fair amount (I’m a professor at Temple, which ended its baseball program to pursue football, and which has been, for much of my career, a train wreck because of stoopid financial decisions). I honestly don’t think NIL donors will throw money at baseball. Maybe at Texas and one or two other places, but the average university is under too much pressure to focus on (1) football and (2, a very distant 2) basketball.

    I know Matt check in here periodically and be curious to know his further NIL thoughts, because I just don’t see it for baseball. But, as with many many things, I could be wrong %)

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    1. Oh hey, I was a student at Temple when they got rid of the baseball program. Which was extra infuriating because I wanted to PLAY BASEBALL.

      As for NIL in baseball, I think there’s definitely an impact. At least in terms of potential-first round talents. There’s less money for the average player than there is in football. But there’s definitely enough to entice a teenager to forgo minimum salary for 5+ years of minor league play.

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      1. Dan…..the sentiment of the MLB commissioner and the owners is that the minor league development programs are costly, especially ilo of the latest CBA …and to cut cost the natural reduction of total players in a system has come about, plus reducing the rounds in the draft……about the same effect as a corporate lay-off. But the ultimate goal is to try to have the MLB model mirror the NFL model….that is, colleges provide the majority if not all the development. Naturally they cannot do that with the international kids….but the academies have been established to facilitate that development…..and many teams now share an academy and share the cost like the Phillies and Twins in Boca Chica that started 8 years ago. IMO, the drafting of kids out of HS will get fewer and fewer each year until it may become a thing of the past. And the MLB benefits in trimming development training costs and naturally the NCAA and its baseball coaches would appreciate that…more talent for them.

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    2. Robin. NIL is here to stay until any changes are made. NIL is not just football. Basketball is huge as well. IU basketball is one of the top NIL programs in the country. They restocked their team with NIL money. Some got over a Million. There are several players in the Big10 getting over 200 to 300 thousand who do not even play much. I think NIL will be a big driver in the baseball arena very soon. Sure, it is already in some. Look at these guys coming from nowhere schools to topflight teams. The number 10 pick came from Wingate to Wake Forest. Wake has really jumped into the national scene in recent years. My guess NIL is big factor. Also, if you saw Skenes last night on MLB red carpet with his gal Lizzy Dunne. She is the highest paid NIL person in college currently being a gymnast. My guess Skenes got a boatload to end up at LSU. There is money being thrown around everywhere. Total Wild West.

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      1. Agreed. I heard directly from a PAC12 player this year that his teammate — a decent player but not a draft prospect, and in fact wasn’t drafted this week — who transferred to an SEC school and got $150k NIL money for this season. If you’re a high school kid who the pros are offering $200k or $250k (say, 8th round), why would you take that if you can go to school, make more $, and have a chance to be drafted higher in a few years?

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    3. On the NIL side, I think it changes the calculus at the top and bottom of the draft spectrum. For very top HS players (particularly pitchers) going to be a major school, they can bet on getting a large amount of money for their 3 years and then potentially hit the draft again in 3 years.

      On the bottom of the spectrum, if a team is trying to give a lower end bonus it doesn’t take a large NIL amount plus a scholarship to start to shift the math on a junior staying in school for another year or a high schooler turning down a mid to low 6 figure bonus.

      I don’t think NIL is an earth shattering thing for baseball, but if you are choosing a year(s) between minor league pay and conditions vs getting a scholarship and money in college, it shifts the line of what a team has to meet to convince you to sign.

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      1. Thanks, Matt, and others who have provided more information. Given that scholarship support for baseball was always meager, it would seem that NIL is benefitting college baseball more than the big 2 sports (football and basketball), which, one could argue, are being destroyed by the combination of NIL and the unrestricted use of the transfer portal. I stress that I am NOT opposed to paying college athletes, but pay+portal is making it possible for relatively poor schools like Temple to compete.

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        1. To be fair, Temple wasn’t competing BEFORE the NIL stuff became “legal”.

          I really have no issue with schools being unable to compete in the sports business. Just focus on academics if you can’t.

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  10. WestCoast. I agree 100%. This is a great time to be a college athlete. Money is growing on trees. All the under the table things of years past are now fine to be out in the open. An example. Coleman Hawkins is a good player not great. Supposedly he got over $2M to go to Kansas State from Illinois. This is a basketball guy. But money is available to kids in many sports now. More on the guy’s side than gals but you can be sure the pitcher from Stanford will get wealthy with what she gets from who she goes to. I have not heard but most thought a while back it would be Oklahoma. Why not. Best program. There are a lot of gals getting a lot of money.

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    1. I wish they would call NIL what it really is, Pay for play. I think NIL will settle down in a few years when most people realize they’re throwing their money away. For now though most will enjoy being legal “bagman”.

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    2. WestCoast. You make an interesting point. Here is my take on the NIL and college basketball and I think it may soon apply to baseball and softball. Just seeing LSU is landing 3 veteran softball players. This is NIL at it best. I am a big baseball and basketball person. I have told many on the IU basketball site I believe going forward the great high school kids will have no issue. Plus, lots of money. But to me the kids who will be affected by the NIL explosion will be the good high school kids. I believe most of them will need to go to smaller schools initially. Why would a major college want to spend maybe two years developing a kid when they can go annually into the portal and with NIL bring in ready to play players. That is the norm in basketball now. IU for example almost completely reloaded their team with transfer kids because of the NIL money they have available. That to me will become more and more common with baseball and softball as well going forward. So, what happens to the good baseball players? Who knows. But I have been told by those in the know many average basketball players are making hundreds of thousands of dollars and basically in some cases sitting on the bench. So, who knows where it goes.

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  15. I thought this article helped explain the draft strategy well. Barber really likes the top 4 picks. All hitters. Thinks there is real upside to their 3rd and 4th round picks. Day 3 was all about selecting relief pitchers that have good stuff but mediocre results due to poor command. They are confident that they can clean up mechanics to improve command. They took 10 RPs on day 3. If one of them becomes an impact RP for the Phillies then that’s a win.

    https://www.mlb.com/news/phillies-wrap-2024-draft-with-day-3-picks?partnerID=web_article-share

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    1. That seems like a good strategy with the relief pitching selections…..good velo and spin rates….poor command in college, but maybe workable once they get into the Phillies system and under Phillies’ coaching. Maybe they will get that special one like the Mets got with deGrom out of Stetson.

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    1. Before people think that this is massive overpay, the Marlins gave Carter Johnson (#56 overall) $2.8M ($1.6M slot).

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    2. If Burkholder is getting that much over slot, then Dante Nori has to be under slot by a decent margin. Probably in the $2.75M range.

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      1. Maybe, but I expect several players in the top 10 to be considerably under slot, including:

        • Kodey Shojinaga
        • Brady Day
        • Joel Dragoo

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        1. They would have to be getting near zero amounts because their slot values total are $733400. Burkholder is over by $1.15M. That still leaves $416600.

          Burkholder is now signed in the MLB draft tracker.

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          1. Well, Day is a college senior, and it’s fairly common for those guys to sign for 5-10K. And there’s also the 5% overage which is only “penalized” with a tax that the Phils are absolutely sure to take advantage of. That gives them an extra almost 400K to work with.

            So there’s ~550K of the 1.15M right there.

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  18. The MLB draft tracker has the Phillies giving full slot ($545K) to our 4th round pick Carson DeMartini.

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  20. Expect Phillies to announce signings soon (day or two). They are hosting most of their 20 draft picks in Philadelphia this week. Possible that two are opting to continue playing for SEC schools via transfer portal. At least one (maybe all) of the UDFAs is already at the Complex. Can’t do better than that. The Phillies keep their cards closer to their chest than a professional card player.

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    1. Phillies just released that they signed Nori for $2.5M. They also mentioned that they signed most of their 20 picks EXCEPT:

      3: Spikerman

      5: Mathison

      14: Spencer

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      1. Mathison has stated that he will sign with the Phillies but looks like it’s not official yet.

        Spencer has stated on social media that he’s going to Texas so the Phillies might have to go overslot to get him.

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  21. The Phillies have signed all but #3, #5, and #14. The tracker is up to date but I don’t have most of the signing bonuses, yet. #1 and #2 each got $2.5M. #4 got full slot. If all the remaining top ten picks sign for full slot (which is highly unlikely) the Phillies would exceed 105% of their bonus pool by a little over $50K. So, no worries.

    Now, savings below $150K for #11 thru #20 can’t be applied to over slot picks in the top ten. But, any overages count against the pool. So, any savings on the remaining top ten picks can be applied to the second ten picks if needed.

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  24. Tracker is up-to-date with the bonuses for the top ten picks.

    Phillies exceed bonus allotment, but are under the 5% the MLB allows.

    Phillies have $45.99K to apply to a later pick. Picks 11 thru 20 (except #14) have signed. Bonuses aren’t known yet. Maybe this little bit was enough to get one of them to sign. We’ll see when/if the bonuses become public.

    2024 Draft Tracker – Google Sheets

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  26. All 19 draft picks and 4 UDFAs have reported to Clearwater and were on the back fields today. Word circulating that a fifth UDFA will be reporting later today or tomorrow.

    The kids I saw all look to be in solid shape, no scrawny guys. Nori is easily the smallest of the group. He probably appeared smaller because he was standing next to Burkholder in the outfield shagging balls hit by Coach Abad. They were the only two outfielders taking part in this morning’s outfield drill.

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