204 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion, 7/1/24”

1. The Phils clearly need an upgrade over Pache and Merrifield who looks cooked. Jim I’m not sure if you’re referring to Robert or Pham but yes I’d take a flier on Robert while I’d probably skip Pham who has been on many teams for a reason.

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   1. I’m not willing to take a “flier” on anybody if it means giving up top tier minor league talent. Right now Robert is hitting a lusty .205 with a 34% K rate. Easy pass for me.

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      1. What about Rojas and McGarry for him?

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         1. C’mon man, you know that those 2 won’t be enough to get Robert Jr. Rojas now has a career ML OPS of .659. McGarry has a career minor league walk rate of 6.3.

            The White Sox will be asking for top trade value for Robert. ESPN has an article about who teams should trade for and with no surprise, the Phillies should trade for Robert. And the compensation? Some combination of Painter/Miller/Crawford/Abel to start.

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         2. I echo Guru below. McGarry is 25, hasn’t done anything since 2022 and is injured. I haven’t read anything about the extent of the injury.

            Not sure Rojas will ever be a plus hitter. I like Rojas and in the past week you can see that his speed alone can help you win games. I always figured that I would hedge my bets on Rojas with Crawford and would hedge my bets on Crawford with Rojas figuring one of the two would become an all around player.

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         3. How about Merrifield, Pache, McGarry, Turnbull, and player X (your choice) for him …….. as we vacuum the system. Still leaves a little debris, but we can sweep that under the rug for now. 🤔

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         4. shhhhhhh ……… the idea is we make it a smorgasbord for the ChiSox ………. the old 5 for 1 ………. which never bore fruit either, but what the heck it changes the landscape and you don’t have to watch Pache K 43% of the time.

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            1. Skeet……right on, we are talking the WSox. They love those 5-for-1 trades. Though have to admit…if the Phillies offered up just Crawford for Robert, they may budge.

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      2. I don’t think its a flier. Hes proven and hes young. Hes off to a horrid start coming back from injury playing for a terrible team with trade rumors surrounding him. Hes clearly not his best self right now. I think based on who he was as a prospect and who he has been as a major leaguer, it is reasonable to expect him to be productive not just this year but in future years. Just my opinion though.

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         1. It actually could be a great buy low situation on a talented player off to a terrible start this year after an injury.

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            1. Who said the White Sox are going to sell low? All indications are that they want full value for Robert Jr.

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               1. Yeah, absolutely, thats what the front office has to navigate. Of course the sox are going to come out with the “were not selling low” statement now. If they announced to the world they’ll sell low theyll be inundated with crappy offers. They aren’t gonna come out and say “yeah hes playing poorly so were looking to unload him for .60 on the dollar” because that would be insanely dumb.

                  They can say that all they want, but they also run the risk of him not picking it up in the second half, or even worse, getting hurt, and then his value is even lower, plus the team that would trade for him in the offseason would get a half season less of him, so value would go down there too.

                  Thats what the front office’s job is; negotiate and see where the actual point of sale is and see if they are willing to go there. They aren’t going to get him for McGarry, Abel and Rojas, but they also should never offer Painter and probably not Miller (although I’d consider Miller for Robert straight up). Its all a big chess match and well see how it turns out. If theres a happy medium (Caba, Klassen, Graves, Cabrera) then maybe you get him. If they really are stubborn and want a Soto-like package for him, then its a hell no.

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               2. @ Dan, I agree that all teams want full value but Robert Jr can potentially be under control for 3 more years. This usually commands a premium, although his future salaries are not that cheap ($15M, $20M club option, $20M club option).

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2. Someone, Romus?, questioned on the last Phillies thread why Hall wasn’t brought up to replace Harper short term. Realizing that Hall is limited to first base or DH it still seems to me to be the right choice. He would basically be replacing a first baseman, Harper, with another first baseman. His power or at least threat of power would, again short term, replace that missing with Schwarber and Harper out.

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   1. Why would we want Hall on the Phillies when Clemens is a much better and more versatile player? Hall’s a swell guy by all accounts, but he has been bad at AAA this year. No reason to think he’ll up his game 3 levels and be better than Clemens if he is promoted.

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      1. First…..he is a very good defensive first basemen

         Second……his power bat in the middle is a threat, Clemens does not provide that nor scare many opposing pitchers.

         Third….look at his whole body of career work, not just the last 2 1/2 months.

         Fourth….did it, done it, two years ago.

         Fifth…..it is only until spurt period, until Harper returns. That is when you want someone new to opposing pitchers. His adrenaline is also elevated.

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         1. Last year in AAA, Clemens hit the same number of HRs as Hall in 55 fewer plate appearances. At the major league level, Hall’s ISO was a paltry .074 versus Clemens’ .137 (also not great, but still better).

            This year, Clemens has 1 more HR than Hall… in 68 fewer PAs… AND almost half of them have come in the majors for Clemens. Clemens’ .313 ISO with the Phils is absolutely a power threat.

            Also, in their small samples, Clemens has actually been the better defensive 1B in Philadelphia. Plus he’s not limited to the position like Hall is.

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            1. What are you talking about? Hall is better!!! Stop with the statistics already.

               Sorry, that was too easy.

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               1. What is easy is putting the other guys out there , Pache and Merrifield with their great offensive statistics. I think Hall could match up with them from the plate. And Clemens could replace them in the OF or even 2B or 3B

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            2. Perhaps Hall’s ship has sailed from this org….but would have like to see that one short spurt of 12/15 games while Harper is out. ..assuming Harper returns July 19 @ Pittsburgh

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            3. Well, I’m not defending Merrifield or Pache (especially Merrifield), but what do those guys have to do with replacing Harper at first base? Pretty much nothing as far as I can tell. Now, if Hall batted righty, that might be interesting – this is one of the most lefty-heavy teams I’ve ever seen and it’s a bit of a problem. But Hall is also a lefty – so no leg up there.

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      2. Yeah, think the ship sailed on Hall. IMO id prefer Weston and Cardenas as ML callups over him. Hes the quintessential 4-A type guy at this point and he may have hit is prime 2 seasons ago.

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3. Have to think the Phils must be considering releasing Merrifield after the break, and just eating the last $4M of his contract. Doubt any other contender will want to trade for him with a slash of .188/.277/.283 after over 150PAs this season.

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   1. He’s definitely looking at a possible trade deadline release after acquiring someone by trade.

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4. Assuming (as one can’t) good health at the trade deadline and addition of a right-handed bat, the Phils could be faced with retaining 2 of Merrifield, Rojas, Dahl, Pache and Clemens.

   I think Clemens with options and Pache with no performance are easy calls for the team to make. If the Phils acquire a CFer, sending down Rojas is foreseeable. If they acquire a corner OFer, it seems inescapable Merrifield or Dahl will be a casualty.

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5. Quick side note: The High Hopes podcast that Jack Fritz runs is doing a group outing to the Jersey Shore/Wilmington game tomorrow night. Im very excited to go. Anyone else part of this? Bringing my wife, daughter and some friends. $2 dogs, $5 beers and fireworks. Should be an awesome time.

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6. FYI – Miller is really in a death spiral slump down to 169. He’s 5-31 since June 1.

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   1. Easy there, pal. Death spiral suggests his career is over. He’s in a terrible slump and let’s leave it at that – but it is a very, very bad slump.

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      1. Sorry, I didn’t mean to imply his career was over, just that he’s in a horrible slump. Crawford is in a bad slump also. I watched them both last week and they both looked lost. It’s a long process and neither player is being traded at this time. They’ll figure things out in time and be a better player from the experience. Baseball is hard!

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   2. Miller is doing fine. His walk rate and K rates are in line with his other stops. His babip is low, .217. But he is having good at bats and hitting the ball hard. Stop focusing so much on batting average in a small sample size. It is irrelevant. Miller is an elite prospect. Imo the best position prospect that we have had since Utley.

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      1. In addition to V1 Klaw, has a publication in The Athletic reviewing prospects for the Phils, Pirates and Orioles, I believe, where he raves (as much as Klaw raves) about A Miller. To paraphrase he has shown good bat skills, is greatly impressed by his defense believes he can stay at Shortstop, and thinks the Phils were incredibly fortunate (and perceptive) to get him at slot 27 in R1 of the draft.

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7. Dahl really struggling against off speed pitches. He won’t stay in the majors after the other guys come back in a few days.

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   1. Dahl doesn’t have any options left and I think he’s done enough to get claimed by somebody.

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      1. True but he’s just not good enough.

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8. Regarding Darick Hall: I also believe his ship has sailed with the Phillies. Not because of his talent but because the Phillies have once again pivoted on their thinking regarding him.

   The first pivot occurred a couple seasons ago when they allowed another GM to persuade them to callup Donny Sands on September 1st first rather than Hall. I won’t go into this again unless you really want me to.

   First of all, Hall is more than capable of playing first base in the majors. Just not on a team whose first baseman is Bryce Harper. He could probably play for several if not most second division teams. He would certainly be an affordable alternative for some of the cheap teams.

   Second, Hall is the best first baseman in the organization. Credit to Harper for closing the gap so quickly. He will probably surpass Hall at some point if Hall is still in the organization next season. Note that most first basemen in the organization are either AAAA depth types from other organizations at the upper levels of the organization or converted corner outfielder or catchers. The Phillies haven’t drafted first base only players in a couple years. And they haven’t drafted very many since 2016-17.

   Harper’s visit to the injured list is the very reason that Hall was retained on the 40-man roster. His handedness doesn’t matter. He would be replacing a left-handed hitting first baseman. Not to use him is to admit they wasted a 40-man spot.

   While position flexibility is sometimes a valid argument for bench players, Hall would be replacing Harper who no longer has positional flexibility. This may not render the flexibility question moot, but it goes a long way toward that.

   Personally, I have wished for the Phillies to trade Hall to a team where he would have a better chance at making it back to the majors. However, I understand that most organizations have a Hall type in their organization already. It was rumored that Hall had a 3 year offer at $1M per year to play in Japan with many perks. I had hoped it was true and that he would accept. If true, I wonder if he would make the same decision knowing he would be overlooked when the decision was made to callup a replacement when Harper went on the injured list.

   I, like Romus, very much like Hall. I think he would be effective with the Phillies. Realistically, however, I wish him well and hope he’s with another organization soon.

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   1. Yep Jim…Hall was a good soldier…..wish him luck when the day comes that he goes. Had thought there was an outside chance he end up with the DBacks close to family, but Kennedy-Kendrick’s Christian Walker could return there if the DBacks offer him next season, if not who knows…….nevertheless, Japan would be a nice gig.

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   2. Okay, look, Darick Hall seems like a great guy and he played fine when he was with the Phillies in 2022. I believe he has a decent glove too, although he has a negative dWAR rating probably due to lack of range, which is common for big first basemen. I also believe that he is probably down on himself and that may account for his pretty bad (not mediocre, bad for a first baseman) performance this year in AAA.

      That said, it is his obligation as an older minor league player to fight for and obtain playing time. He has clearly not done that this year. I thought from comments he didn’t have a lot of ABs, but he has a reasonable sample size and his AAA OPS is .668, with a low BA, a low OBP and a well below .400 slugging percentage. This is unfortunate because was quite good in AAA last year. He has not earned this promotion. Clemens is younger and more athletic and has positional versatility. Perhaps Darick can clear his mind and rebound, but for now, the Phillies’ decision seems to be the right one.

      As for whether his not being righty is relevant (not determinative, but relevant), I submit that it is. If he were a righty, he could get pinch hitting and DH opportunities because this line-up is lefty-heavy with some guys having such bad platoon splits that they should be sat down for lefty starters or hit for late in games where lefty relievers are brought in (Stubbs, Marsh, etc. . . ) so it would have helped if he were a righty. He’s not.

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9. FWIW, the White Sox outfielder I cryptically referred to in the article is Luis Robert. The Phillies player whose makeup he was compared to by baseball insiders is Odubel Herrera. I always liked Herrera. But I had more info than I could share with you guys. Now, as a player both on the field and in the clubhouse, is this the type of player and personality you want to bring to our organization? I like Herrera and even I question whether he would be a good addition. So, are Robert’s power and potential return to his former production still acceptable? At what cost?

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   1. Thanks Jim for clearing that up. Personally I think the Phils will try to bring in a lesser name who costs less. I don’t think they want to trade Rojas or Abel, trading low on both. I think Pache, Merrifield and Dahl will all be let go, keeping Clemens (assuming he shows he can play LF) plus they’ll acquire a right handed hitting OF to platoon in LF with Marsh. Clemens will provide the versatility they hoped to get with Merrifield. A guy like Pham is what I’m thinking.

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10. Congrats to Miller and Crawford…headed to the Futures Game in Arlington Texas at the break. And will be the second time for Crawford.

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11. Congratulations to Michael Mercado. My goodness pitchers are strange and unpredictable. When the year started, Abel was our top active pitching prospect and looking to be a middle/top rotation arm in the near term. Mercado was a guy with a decent arm and a history of terrible control ERAs and deemed not good enough to keep a 40-man rotation spot. These two have essentially traded places. But it’s also a good reminder that Abel still may have a bright future (especially since the velocity has mostly, although not fully, bounced back) and we need to be patient. Quite frankly, I would not be eager to trade him because his trade value has sunk so far. I think he needs to get through this season the best he can and next year will be a fresh start. He still has ability. He could still become a very good pitcher – be it a reliever or starter.

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    1. I watched all of Mercado’s 5 innings. He has a 94-96 fastball with some run, a cutter that has some slider action, and a curveball. He threw some changeups but it’s by far his 4th pitch. He’ll have some command issues though, and he left a few up in the zone that the Cubs hitters ripped right at guys. He’s really calm on the mound which is a huge plus. I think he’s more advanced than Cristopher Sanchez was at that age. I think his cutter can be a plus pitch. At this point, I think he has enough to be a 3/4 pitcher which is amazing considering what the Phillies traded for him.

       Mercado only pitched 62 innings last season, so I’m guessing his limit would be 100-110 max. He’s halfway through that now, so he should be ok to start until Walker or Turnbull are healthy. But I doubt he’ll be able to finish the season due to his innings limit.

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       1. I bet he will finish the season with the Phillies. As soon as Walker is back, he’ll be starting and Mercado will become the long man in the bullpen unless he is needed for a spot start. As I view things, however, I’d be shocked if Walker were back next year – they should be able to move him and the contract – the only question is how much money they need to eat (probably less than you might think).

          Hey, if someone is willing to pay Tobias Harris $26 million a year (did Detroit actually watch him play? What?), then I am sure we can move Walker’s contract.

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          1. Walker needs to be healthy AND effective. He’s currently negative WAR. If he finishes the season at negative WAR, the Phillies will need to eat at least $18M. If he regains his splitter and becomes positive WAR, the Phillies might only need to eat $10M.

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             1. Even $18 million would save them $18 million. But yes, how much they have to eat depends on how he finishes the year.

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             2. Baseball organizations don’t put as much stock in WAR as fans do. Maybe none at all.

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                1. What algorithm, convention or measuring device do they use for gauging performance?

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                2. Ruff, they have their own, internal, proprietary ways of evaluating both the performance of their own guys and those in other organizations. Of course, the methods are different for evaluating your own guys and the other guys’ guys.

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                3. Thanks for the back, I always thought it would be most revealing and entertaining to follow a GM for a week to see what actually does and doesn’t happen in that cloak of secrecy.

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                4. I am interested in the individual development plans they create for each player. I asked if I could see an example of one or a blank plan. These too are proprietary. Oh well.

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12. Kudos to Mercado. It would be nice if he develops into a good Major league pitcher. He does, however, owe a lot to Castellanos. If not for that catch, Mercado may not have survived the first inning.

    We crap on Castellanos a lot but when he gets to a ball, he catches. He is not a fast runner. As a matter of fact (in my mind), he “gallops” more than he runs. He even made a nice play on that final out which rose at the last second.

    If Castellanos ends up at .250 this year, it would be a positive come back from such a terrible start. To hit .260 would be a revelation. That outside slider still kills him as the inside slider is curtains for David Dahl.

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    1. His length, almost 6’5″ , does come in handy when he has to reach. And in his last 100 or so PAs he is slashing .280/.327/.495… so maybe he has turned the corner at the plate. Hopefully the last half of the season is more of the same, from over the last two dozen games.

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13. I am an “all in” guy. I believe when a team has a real shot at a championship, then you sell top prospects for elite MLB pieces. I was very supportive of the Halladay and Cliff Lee deals as an example. I had no issues selling our best prospects for elite SPs to take a real shot to win it all. This team has a 3-5 year window where Harper and the core are in their primes. Then a big rebuild is coming. And I am fine maximizing that window and rebuilding after.

    That said, I am not a fan of Robert Jr. I would not sell high level prospects for him. I still think the perfect player to get is Hinkie’s favorite, Brandon Nimmo. I think is is possible the Mets sell and that Cohen eats some of that contract for a top prospect. If the Astros were willing to sell Tucker for some reason, I would trade 2 top 100 prospects for him. But imo Robert is not in that caliber. I trust DD to do the right thing. He has been exceptional as a decision maker.

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    1. What makes you think the Mets are going to sell? Serious question. They’re one of the hottest teams in baseball in the past month, they’re only 1.0 game out of a WC spot, and they’re one of only 7 teams in the NL with a positive run differential. Weeks ago, yes, they may have had Alonso and others on the chopping block, but now? I’m not sure I see it.

       Nimmo is signed for 4 more seasons and currently is sporting 2.4 WAR and an .824 OPS at the midway point of this season. Even if they were going to sell (which I doubt), wouldn’t they want to keep a player of that caliber if they want compete in the next two years?

       I’m finding it very hard to get excited about the trade deadline at this stage . So many middle of the pack teams, so not sure who the obvious sellers are and I don’t really see a great OF fit, especially on the teams who are sellers. If we did somehow trade for Nimmo, I’m sure he’d help, but I’d still be aggravated by his stupid sprint to first after a BB.

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       1. No guarantees that the Mets sell. But Cohen isn’t the kind of guy who is happy with a wild card. He wants an elite team. I guess it would depend on the level of prospect coming back. But let’s see how it all plays out. Maybe the Mets don’t sell. I still wouldn’t trade much for Robert Jr

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       2. Hardly the only guy to sprint to 1rst on a BB. You probably don’t recall it, but Pete Rose inherited the nickname “Charlie Hustle” from Whitey Ford for doing this very thing and doing it during spring training to boot!

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    2. I liked Nimmo…I think that window has now closed….since June 1st the Mets are 18-8 and are going strong to catch the Braves. …and with the Nats, Pirates, Rockies and Marlins all still coming up in the next few weeks, that number will probably improve…they may be buyers in three weeks. And if the Phillies end up in the play-offs facing the Mets….that could spell disaster.

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       1. Maybe. You might be right. We will see how these next 3 weeks play out.

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          1. No need to get Nimmo, he’ll pass out come playoff time taking a crap. Good player tho, but pass

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14. Where would the Phillies play Nimmo? He’s not a CF anymore. He’s a better but higher priced and older version of Marsh. He’s better than Marsh now but what about the last 4 years of his expensive contract?

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    1. Left. Move Marsh to CF

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    2. I’m seeing the Phillies acquiring a RH platoon bat for Marsh, leaving Rojas as their primary CF (except on days they want to go lefty heavy then Clemens will be in LF and Marsh in CF), acquiring another impact reliever, and maybe a versatile bench piece. None of what they’re likely to do will cost top prospects. I just don’t see a CF, LF, or reliever (other than Mason Miller whose cost will be obscene and who really isn’t necessary for the Phillies) who really is elite and makes sense for the Phillies.

       I agree with posters on here who don’t want Robert, Jr. Doesn’t seem like a clubhouse fit and his low OBP/high-K is not a brand of baseball I want to watch long-term. I’d love to see them acquire another high impact player, but I just have no clue who that should be at this stage, especially given the middling state of baseball right now. Their best chance to win a WS is staying healthy in the second half.

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15. Maybe the Rockies will take an offer for 26-year old CF Brenton Doyle…..a Coors Field guy, and only two years MLB experience ( a little over 200 games), but can play better than average CF with great speed, strong arm , good size and also a right hand bat. Three of the Rox top five prospects are OFers and all younger than Doyle so he will probably be competing in less than 2 years for a job there.

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=doyle-000bre

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    1. There’s no reason for the Rockies to trade Doyle, he’s not blocking anybody. Heck, Jack Cave is still a starter. Unless the Phillies give them something interesting like Klassen AND Abel to start (they always need pitching), Doyle is not going anywhere. Yes, he’s already 26 but he’s on track for close to a 3 WAR season. Brandon Marsh is older than Doyle.

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       1. Doubt seriously if Doyle will cost both Abel and Klassen…..one or the other will do, and perhaps another pitcher in the minor league system, and also along with a position player.

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    2. Doyle has reverse splits. He’s worse against lefties. If the Phils want a strong RHB to play against lefties, I’m not sure he’s it.

       I’d like the Pirates to fall a little (they’re currently 7th in the WC standings, but not too many games out) and trade Bryan Reynolds. He could be the every-day left fielder. Marsh can play center against righties, and Rojas can play against lefties. Reynolds is 29 and under contract through 2030, his age 35 season, at an annual luxury tax amount of $13.3M.

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       1. Like I mentioned he has only approx 200 games under his belt…..so do not look at his rookie year splits……this year vs LHPs he is .269/.338/.403.

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16. alec bohm is a complete stud. What a development for the Phillies. Just a needed, big development

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17. What about Brent Rooker or Justin Turner?

    I know this may require some Schwarber in the field but the reality is there are just not that many good bats available.

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    1. Brent Rooker has 2 WAR and under control for 3 more years. He’s going to cost a lot.

       Justin Turner hits lefties, but he’s a DH now and I don’t really want Schwarber in the field that much.

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       1. That’s fine if Rooker costs a lot. But that doesn’t change the fact there aren’t a ton of quality bats out there to be had.

          Roberts has been talked about a lot more and also has 3 years of team control (albeit not cheap control).

          Tucker has been talked about endlessly online and he isn’t getting traded. Rooker is on a horrible team playing well.

          I constantly read/hear how Roberts is on a bad team so maybe that’s why he’s struggling at the plate…..

          Too many teams will think they are in it for that last Wild Card spot and the there will be very little in terms of bats available at the deadline.

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18. I might be totally wrong but wasn’t that Strahm’s 3rd consecutive blown hold/save?

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    1. Yes, it was. You knew that he wasn’t going to end the season with a sub 1 ERA…

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       1. Yes, Guru. Not even I assumed that he would go the entire season with a sub one ERA. Just a bit shocked that he has pitched somewhat poorly in 3 straight games. Only hope that it doesn’t impact his confidence.

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    2. I thought Strahm didn’t pitch bad last night. Bellinger had a really good hit. Sometimes the other team is better. The previous outing he gave up that bomb he looked shaky as heck.

       I still have tons of confidence in him.

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       1. TG………agree, think he’s done well most of the year. Actually, feel better seeing him in “crunch” then the Cardiac Closers as they seem to get my “Irish dander” up!

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19. Asking someone who might know: Harper and Sanchez both were named player of the month for position player and pitcher. Are they compensated for that with money?

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20. Update from Keith Law:

    Aidan Miller continues to impress

    Shortstop Aidan Miller was the Phillies’ 2023 first-round pick after the Florida high school infielder missed most of his senior season due to a broken hamate bone, dropping him from preseason expectations that he’d go in the top half of the round to the Phillies at No. 27. The Phillies just promoted Miller from Low-A Clearwater to High-A Jersey Shore, where I saw him for two games, and I think they got a steal at pick 27.

    Miller hit an impressive .275/.401/.483 in the Florida State League, a difficult place to hit for power, with a 21 percent strikeout rate. His exit velocity there topped out at 108.1 mph, and his EV50 — the average of the top 50 percent of his batted balls — was 99.5 mph. For some sense of scale, that’s pretty much where Spencer Steer has been in the majors this year, and Steer is 26 years old while Miller just turned 20 in June.

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    1. Miller has been too aggressive since the promotion, jumping on the first pitch or a pitcher’s pitch multiple times in my look, although he really only looked bad on fastballs at 94-95 mph. He’s short and quick to the ball but I’d like to see him square the ball up more consistently and stay on plane with the pitch, as I saw several swings from him where he got a little uphill and hit the top half of the ball.

       I’m more impressed, or stunned, by how well Miller has played shortstop this year. He’s got a 60 arm but he’s become quicker since last summer, approaching 60 run times and showing a faster first step in the field. He made multiple tough plays that required him to move quickly and cover ground to his left, and his transfer on throws was quick — except for the one play where he dove to his left and flipped the ball from his glove to the second baseman to get a force.

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       1. https://x.com/BlueClaws/status/1807490821362745805?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1807490821362745805%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=file%3A%2F%2F%2Fvar%2Fcontainers%2FBundle%2FApplication%2F83BAE002-0550-47EA-9882-7A49F2BA4945%2Ftheathletic-ios.app%2FAthleticUI_AthleticUI.bundle%2F

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       2. I didn’t see him in high school, but the strong consensus from scouts who had seen him the summer and fall before he got hurt was that he’d end up at third base. I don’t think that’s true any more — he’s a shortstop, and with him, Bryan Rincon (Jersey Shore IL), and emerging star prospect Starlyn Caba (Complex league), the Phillies have a lot of shortstop depth to work with.

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          1. I don’t know what their intentions are with Miller…..Bohm has two more years then a free agent, and 2025 arb salary now will jump ..possibly to I assume $12M and then his last arb year-2026- if he is still hitting like he is doing now could jump up to over $20M and then he hits free agency with Boras as his agent and he will be approaching 31 years old and probably looking for a LTC. Phillies will anticipate that and could move Miller over to third base in 2025 or 2026. And let Bohm walk That is pretty far down the road but it can get here fast. Things could get fluid in another year from now.

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             1. Even though hitters usually get better arbitration raises than pitchers, unless Bohm has a 6 WAR season I think he’ll get probably double his current salary. At best, he’ll get $9M which would be a substantial arbitration raise from $4M.

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                1. Yeah he may not get more than $10M in arb 3…he is on pace for a 5WAR season now, …but that last arb year, if he continues at his current pace, he could be approaching $20M or higher. Boras will guide him along.

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21. More from Law:

    Lefty Samuel Aldegheri pitched on Sunday against Greensboro and was much better than the box score might indicate, as the home plate umpire was apparently watching Bridgerton rather than the game in front of him and missed at least four clear strikes (called or checked swings) for the gentleman from Verona. Aldegheri was mostly 90-92, touching 94, with a real four pitch mix and solid-average control, although the secondary stuff does depend on him getting ahead more with the fastball than he did on Sunday.

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22. His slider and curveball both have depth, with the slider around 83-86 the better of the two. The changeup is his weakest pitch, a 45 right now where he slows his arm slightly, although the pitch has good tail. It’s not a great delivery, as his stride is too short and his arm can be late, while he works too north-south and doesn’t have anything with significant horizontal movement. I think he’s a back-end starter unless one of the pitches takes a real leap forward. He’d especially benefit from working on the changeup or trying a splitter. (I have not seen George Klassen yet, but he’s the best pitching prospect on the current Jersey Shore roster.)

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23. Right-hander Jaydenn Estanista was No. 18 on my Phillies list going into 2023, but spent more than half of that season on the injured list and didn’t make the cut this year. The Curacao native is back and healthy, pitching exclusively in relief now, sitting 94-95 against High-A Wilmington in a two-inning stint with a plus slider at 82-86. He’s lean and projectable with a very fast arm but an over-the-top arm slot that may make command and control a chronic issue for him. He threw strikes on Monday, 19 in 24 total pitches, but he’s walked 14 percent of batters he’s faced this year between Clearwater and Jersey Shore. He’s not Orion Kerkering but he’s in that class of relievers, with two above-average pitches and the need for a big dose of strikes.

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    1. Heading to Blue Claws game Friday night. FIREWORKS! Hopefully rain stays away!

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    2. Does Keith Law have any FB spin rates on any of the pitchers’ he scouts?

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24. Why not Cardenas??? instead of pache or whit

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25. Abel 4.2 inn. 4R 4H 2ER 3 BB 6k 97-57

    Cardenas 1 HR (19)

    Podkul 1 HR (9)

    Hall HR 1 (8)

    Kennedy, Cardenas, Hall, Haley, Robert’s all w/ 2 hits ea.

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26. Such a beautiful swing. Short. Simple. Powerful.

    https://x.com/Mitch_Rupert/status/1809007467159794039

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27. Cabrera jersey shore

    6 inn. O hits 1 bb, 10 Ks, 88 pitches

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28. https://www.milb.com/video/jean-cabrera-k-s-10?t=playerid-691893

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29. Cabrera came on strong at the end of last season and, I think, led Clearwater to the playoff championship. He is on a nice run and could be in play to move through the system.

    According to the box score, Abel didn’t pitch poorly last night. If the infielder hadn’t made an error in the fifth inning. chances are Abel pitches through the sixth with a quality start.

    Tait went 3-3 and got his average up to .290. I can see the Phillies parting ways with some quality middle infielders but not a potential catching candidate. Pan also pitched a few good innings.

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    1. Phillies have no other real major league catching prospects in the minor league system. Trading Tait would be nuts.

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       1. I think Jordan Dissin has a chance to reach the majors, probably as a back -up. And now at 22-years old he has to take advantage of every opportunity he gets. Defensively he is very good, but at the plate he needs to cut down on his swing and miss, has too much right now, He also could see Reading come late August or Sept. depending on what the Phillies want to do with him in his development.

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          1. The Phillies have a bunch of young guys at the lower levels and guys like Dissin and Rickets. I would call them maybe’s/suspects. But putting Tate aside, there is no O’Hoppe type anywhere in sight. It wouldn’t kill the Phillies to draft a catcher very high if there is one available and qualified

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       2. I agree, the Phillies shouldn’t trade Tait. He’s 17 with a .843 OPS in the FCL. If Tait is promoted after the MLB draft, I don’t think anybody here would complain. He’s hitting way better than Salvador Perez did at that age.

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30. Mock has us taking Tommy White. While I love his hitting and his personality, he is a poor defensive player without a real position. I don’t think we would take him.

    https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2024-mock-draft-july-4?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share

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    1. So he’s another Alec Bohm?

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       1. No. Worse defensively imo.

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    2. Latest version of Pete Incaviglia……him and Harper can eventually split DH and 1B.

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    3. If Stanford’s catcher, Malcolm Moore drops Dombrowski and Fuld could pull the trigger on him…..him and Janek are both considered the two best catchers in the class.

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31. They could do worse than Tommy White. To me he looks most like Justin Turner. He was a big power guy at LSU with a low K rate.

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32. Tyler Phillips up to the big leagues. Looks like he’ll be the long man with Marte and Ortiz (?) out. Is that the Tyler who Mr. Jimmy was high on? I can’t remember if it was he or another Tyler. Anybody know?

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33. Romus. I do not get Apple TV tonight so going to watch Skenes vs Mets. Little bit of velocity. Say he is averaging over 100.

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    1. Don….same here…..Apple, Hulu, Peacock, Roku, MLB, Amazon, and whatever else streaming service they can come up with….I am not bending.

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       1. This piece mealing the viewing after the viewers think they are portioned in …….. is starting to stick in my craw. I’ll watch James Arness chasing Miss Kitty or if it comes to It Julia Child reruns.

          Actually signed up for Apple their last game and it took til 2 days after the game was over to be able to hook in. So, much for that, I told them no thanks, don’t think so.

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          1. oldruff. I agree 100%. I am home this evening and cannot watch Braves and Phillies. I have been busy recently so have not been able to see some.

             I love my MLB Extra Inning package. Not big fan of this other stuff. Simply greed on part of MLB to get every $$ possible.

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             1. I pay monthly to watch “all out of market games.” All games, that is, except like tonight when they stream. It’s a rip off of the fans.

                But there is a silver lining. I’ll listen to the radio broadcast and be better entertained by Franzke and Co.

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34. Phillies Mock Drafts;;

    USA Today: Caleb Lomavita, C, Cal…..Bleacher Report: Kellen Lindsey, SS, Hardee HS (Florida)………MLB.com: Ryan Sloan, RHP, York HS (Elmhurst, Ill.)……CBS Sports: Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View HS (Arizona)

    Four different prospects at four different positions . Lomavita’s a top catcher whose swing is unusual but effective. He’s improved his bat potential . Sloan has a very good FB and an advanced changeup for a prep pitcher. Caldwell lacks size (5 feet, 9 inches tall) but makes up for it with bat speed, aggression, and athleticism to hang in at centerfield.

    USA Today: “……. Lomavita brings a polished offensive profile but also questions about his receiving ability that may suggest a move to the infield.”

    CBS Sports: “…..Aidan Miller and Caldwell are not all that similar — Miller is a power threat likely to settle in at third base, Caldwell is a slash-and-dash burner — but the Phillies have leaned into the HS ranks lately, and Caldwell is the highest-upside high school position player still available in our mock draft.”

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35. Phillies Mock Drafts:

    USA Today: Caleb Lomavita, C, Cal……..Bleacher Report: Kellen Lindsey, SS, Hardee HS (Florida)……….MLB.com: Ryan Sloan, RHP, York HS (Elmhurst, Ill.)……………CBS Sports: Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View HS (Arizona)

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    1. Romus. I do not see Honeycutt on your list. He was mentioned quite a bit during CWS.

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36. Romus. Met guys just said Skenes is first pitcher in history to have 70Ks and only 9 runs given up in first 9 starts. Also, he has 70 pitches over 100 and that is more than all other pitchers combined this year. I wondered how he got out of Air Force commitment. They just said had he stayed his junior year he would have been required to fulfill his commitment. So, I guess a kid can get out of the 4-year deal if they leave by end of 2nd year. Said he had no plans to play baseball and he just blew up. All the Pirate pitchers were watching him warm up before the game. He is kind of the Caitlin Clark of MLB without all the drama. All these gals jealous and before her no one knew or cared about WNBA.

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37. Met guys just said Skenes was only mid 80s in high school. Then he grew and look at him now. He was not drafted out of high school. Casey Mize of Tigers was not either and both became number 1 pick.

    Just said Met pitchers have not had a shutout pitching in first 85 games. Last time that happened was 2002. Here is a funny. Announcer goes Mets pitching has not been good, but you would have thought they would have lucked into at least 1 shutout in that many games.

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38. Romus. Skenes is wild tonight. McNeil hit a 0-2 home run. He just nailed Mets catcher with a 99-mph fastball square on left elbow. No elbow guard. He may have one next at bat if he is still in game.

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39. Romus. Skenes. 7 IP. 4 Hits, 8 Ks. 106 pitches. Easy delivery. Leads 4-2. Couple things. Who had Phillies and Cubs yesterday? I could not get it on any channel but got it on the Extra Inning 8 game screen. But had to leave after 2-0 lead and it was 8-2 when returned. Also saw your guy Hellsley was the relief guy of the month with 12 saves. I think he is off market. Cards playing well.

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40. At Blue Claws game with the family.

    Klassen wasn’t great.

    Boyd looks lost at the plate.

    Whoever came in relief for Klassen was bad. Gave up meatball after meatball. Let 2 inherited runners score.

    Turned out to have beautiful weather though with the breeze.

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41. Baseball is definitely a funny sport. Rojas gets 2 hits. But both are in the infield and the ball he hit 103 MPH and the ball he hit 358 feet are both outs.

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    1. Dan …….. according to the box, Alvarado’s stint must have been ugly. Did he have another episode where he couldn’t throw strikes?

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       1. He actually mostly looked good. Albies’ hit was nowhere near the zone. It was a super good pitch that he just happened to get the bat on and find a hole.

          The walk on Riley was on 4 pitches, but 1 of them was actually a strike, another 1 barely missed, and a 3rd was a good pitch to try to get him to swing but he didn’t bite. So only 1 of the 4 was actually not a good pitch (and it shouldn’t have been a walk since 1 was actually a strike).

          The homerun ball was a mistake pitch, no doubt about it, though. Got too much plate after locating two pitches in basically impossible-to-hit spots (1 for a strike, 1 for a ball). But in his entire inning, that was 1 of only probably 3 pitches that weren’t located well. The other ones were the aforementioned ball that was nowhere near the zone to Riley and the third was a middle-middle pitch to d’Arnaud that he luckily did nothing with.

          So he got punished by 1 bad call by the ump, 1 unlucky hit, and 1 mistake pitch. And they just happened to line up in such a way that it turned into 3 runs.

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       2. Had a longer post that went into more detail that got lost to the void. But to summarize; outside of the homerun pitch he actually was looking pretty good. He made 3 mistake pitches in my estimation, 1 being the HR pitch, 1 to d’Arnaud that he did nothing with, and 1 that was nowhere near the zone to Riley.

          But the single was a lucky hit on an excellent pitch, the walk should have been 3-1 and he was around the zone the whole time, and then the HR. So just bad luck that it was a 3 runner.

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42. IMO the hardest to obtain at a reasonable cost, and the position it is hard to have too much of, is quality starting pitching. I would be delighted to see them pick the best available pitcher prep or college … with their first, and at least 2 of their first five picks…. and, echoing V1 (I think) stay away from defensively challenged players

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    1. I have said for years take the highest upside pitcher with your first round pick.

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43. Romus. Good win tonight for Phils. Up 10 now. Saw on MLB Tonight an interesting stat. They said Braves were 0-27 in games the opposing team score 3 or more runs. Make it 0-28. Also saw another as I scanned games. Astros had a kid pitching from Georgetown College in Kentucky. Dback rookie last year was from Bellarmine also in Kentucky. I think Miller on A’s went to small school. I tell my grandson just go somewhere that you can play. If you make good someone will find you. That was not the case back in the early 70s. I remember the old bird dog scouts who followed some of our games back then. Ironically the scout who followed me the most was a Phillies scout. I read a write up on Tommy White. Here is my take. I have seen him play a few times the last couple years. He is Kyle Schwarber II. Schwarber was the catcher for IU. No way he could be a catcher. So left field. Not really a left fielder either. But he had the bat. White has the bat. Saw on an ESPN article that Honeycutt struck out 83 times in 62 games. They felt his swing and miss does not translate well to pro ball.

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    1. Don……White has two positions in the majors…DH and 1B. He most likely would be negative SDI /DRS in any other and cause pitchers to have agita.

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       1. Romus. I think your first option is maybe best. I have seen him a few games at LSU on tv. But he is a stud hitter. Isn’t the Braves stat of being now 0-28 if opponent scores 3 or more runs amazing.

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          1. Yes it is Don…then when you look at some of their usually reliable guys from the past….Olson, Riley, Harris, Arcia all with poor years, or poor compared to prior years…and the loss of Acuna…then you can see they do not have the best of abilities to come back in games. Hopefully they do not turn it around anytime soon.

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             1. Here is something else that caught my attention watching Skenes last night. Showed Mets 10 game schedule. 3 vs Nats, 4 vs Bucs and finally 3 vs Nats. I am sure they were hoping to make up ground on Braves with that. So far 0-4. They get Diaz back soon, but he is not helpful if score is like 14-2 as last night.

                Hope you are correct on Braves continued struggles.

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44. I’ll mention again for those who can’t watch certain games due to broadcasting/streaming shenanigans; MLB’s website/app has their “Gameday” feature which is the next best thing to watching.

    They show each pitch location (including type and speed), and there’s only a couple minute delay between it and the broadcast. And most big plays (including scoring plays, big strikeouts, and excellent defensive plays) will be updated with a clip from the broadcast after a couple of minutes.

    So when someone hits a HR, it’ll tell you that in text form with the EV, distance, and number of runs scored. Then it’ll continue coverage, and when you check back in a few minutes there will likely be the clip from the broadcast of the HR.

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45. Cardenas yard again….

    .281. 20 HR. 56. rbi

    a better option than Pache or Merrifield??

    i guess they are just going to hang on with whats there until JTR, Schwarb, and Harper return

    btw looks like crawford is on again

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    1. My sense is that Cardenas is positioning himself for addition to the 40-man and then a September call-up. Barring further injury, the Phils are currently faced with a numbers crunch on the active roster exacerbated by the need to add a potential right-handed bat with a big league track record. We’re it me, I’d swap out Pache in a heartbeat but the Phils are more measured.

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       1. “Measured”….I hope Dave D and the front office will be able to take some risks as they approach the stretch run…and really not so sure it is much of a risk if they move on from Pache or Merrifield with another RHB. I thought Wes Wilson would be a viable alternative or until they feel the need to upgrade thru a trade. But they must know they take a risk by going into the play-offs with unreliable bats like those mentioned.

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          1. Agree. I felt for long time a closer was most needed. See Phillies mentioned with Rangers maybe. But I have changed. When you get to about 6-9 now in the batting order there are just many outs to be had. Almost as if the opposing pitcher can take a breath before getting back to the top. Hopefully the starters get back soon but still concerned with outfield production or lack thereof production.

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          2. Measured?

             I think the Phils would prioritize:

             1. Adding a substantial right-handed bat for prospects which would contribute to the roster crunch (90 %)
             2. Swapping in Cardenas for Pache (5 %)
             3. Maintaining the status quo for the roster (5%)

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46. https://x.com/PhilliesVibes/status/1809564952727814573?t=SbMt-iTKBOEa80ZzoWOP8Q&s=19

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47. Here is a new name for a trade…Ian Happ

    He won’t come cheap but he is a perfect fit.
    1. A switch hitter with near equal production from both sides.
    2. High on base % guy. Great walk rates. Even with no protection in the Cubs lineup.
    3. Very solid OF defender.

    What would a package look like?

    Depends on if Cubs want a MLB ready player or a high upside prospect package.

    Trade idea #1: Marsh + Aldegheri for Happ.

    Hate to see Marsh go, love the guy. But he really is a platoon player at this point. He hasn’t taken the next step to hit LHP. If he could hit LHP then we wouldn’t have to play Pache (who is awful by the way)

    Trade idea 2: Castellanos (with buy down of $10m AAV) + Abel + Pan.

    Trade idea 3 (all prospects): Happ for Tait or Caba + Aldegheri

    Trade idea 4: Rojas + Abel.

    What do you think?

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    1. v1. Happ is pretty good player. I did not realize till Phillies went there that Cubs had fallen to last place. I think prior to the last two games they were 15-30 over the previous 45 games after a good start. How long do you have Happ? I wonder if Cubs will be sellers. Cards were awful and then wow they are really hot now. There are so many teams that are just hanging around 500 or so. I am not sure which option Phillies would go with. I do not see them moving Marsh. Just a gut feeling on my part. I do not see Topper letting Casty go. He may be his favorite player. So, toss a coin on 3 and 4.

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    2. ?: In order to take the next step to hit LH pitching, don’t you have to be given the opportunity to on consecutive days actually ply your trade against LH pitching? Furthermore, when the guy they run out there instead of you, a RH bat, who K’s 44% of the time against LH pitching and 40% against RH pitching, doesn’t it ring a little hollow ……. that you are not developing…….. and yes, we agree Pache’s hitting is terrible.

       .

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       1. Pache makes a strong case that Marsh should be playing every day.

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    3. Having signed Happ to a lucrative 3-year deal in the off-season. the Cubs have less than a 5% chance of trading him at this deadline. And it wouldn’t be a move hat signals a rebuild. You don’t poach a manager and do big free agent deals only to turn the ship 180 degrees.

       Castellanos doesn’t represent an upgrade for the Cubs or for anybody. He’s not being moved now. I think the Phils like Marsh more than I do so I think he stays. Which means they’ll shop for a platoon addition for LF in my opinion.

       For what they’re looking for, I’m confident that Painter, Miller, Crawford and Tait are safe.

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       1. Trader Dave might be a little more bold than to settle for acquiring a platoon outfielder.

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       2. Agree they are more likely to go after a RH hitting LF to platoon with Marsh. Someone like Cahna who’s opsing .850 vs lhp.

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          1. Mark Canha is an excellent choice and it won’t cost any of the Phillies top 100 prospects. The Phillies can give the Tigers some lotto tickets like Bergolla and Boyd.

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48. If they trade Marsh, who is the CF option versus right handed pitching? Happ does not play CF. I saw him here at UConn his freshman and junior seasons when he was at Cincinnati U. When he came as a freshman, he was a 2B. As a junior he was playing RF. Great bat, poor infielder. If they trade Marsh, it opens up a need for a CF.

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    1. You may be correct….Happ has played 240 games in CF and more than double in LF….570. But, oddly, his DRS in CF is @ negative 6, however in LF it is whopping positive 22, Fld% is virtually the same between CF and LF…..so he is basically a LF nowadays. As a switch-hitter no need for platooning….splits indicate as a LHB his OPS is .824 and as a RHB it is lower @ .719.

       Who plays CF…for now Rojas, in 2 years probably Crawford.

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    2. Rojas plays CF.

       Imo his defense is enough value to overcome his hitting. Our main problem right now (besides Castellanos) is in LF against LHP.

       I love Marsh but he really struggles against LHP

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49. Romus. Is game just a delay or could it be rained out tonight. All I get here is Rain comment. Thanks.

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    1. First pitch at 7:45 ET according to MLB

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       1. Romus. 13-year-old granddaughter just threw no hitter. Only mention because 2 months ago almost to the day she slightly dislocated shoulder. Had to not pitch for a month. Throws really hard but so many issues with her shoulder. They have only been letting her pitch one inning at a time. Had finished two games this afternoon pitching last inning. Travel stuff is crazy. They have played 5 games today. One went extra innings.

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50. Thank you. Got it.

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51. Rincones playing rehab games in the FSL. That was a long injury stint. Looking forward to seeing him back mashing at AA soon.

    Also nice to see Aldegheri promoted to AA.

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    1. Aldegheri may be able to get start intp 2/3 games before the MLB trade deadline…..wonder if he is being showcased at this point?

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       1. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5339511/2024/03/15/sam-aldegheri-italian-pitcher-phillies-mlb/

          Great story. I pray they don’t trade this kid.

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          1. Would be nice to see Graves promoted to JS to take Aldegheri’s place.

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             1. Yeah……lefty pitchers with good stuff and show it, are at a premium. But other GMs know that and we will want them in return. i remember in the JTR trade with the Marlins, besides Alf and Sixto, the Phillies gave up on a lefty named Will Stewart…I thought including Stewart was so wrong…..but turns out he just did not make it with the Marlins and is now in Indy ball pitching in York PA.

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          2. Why not? Who do you think he will be? Likely a 5 (maybe a 4). He has good K rates but poor walk rates. This is exactly the type of prospect you trade at the deadline.

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             1. I like the international aspect of this story. Not saying he will be the next Carlton/Hamels or even Ranger/Underwood. Would like to see the Phillies keep a non Caribbean international prospect. They traded Meade-turnout out great. Also traded Lee-has the potential of being awful. This kid was a million to one shot to make it even this far. Anybody as driven and self-confident as him will make it.

                Nothing wrong with being a 4/5. That to me if worth more than a two month rental of some over the hill bum. If he is part of a larger trade for a controllable player with talent then things change.

                Ranger was considered a long man at one point. Certainly no more than a 4/5. Imagine if they traded him for some turkey that was gone three years ago.

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                1. There’s nothing wrong with a 4/5 pitcher, but those are guys that you’re actively looking to replace.

                   That said, this is more about the Phillies depth in the future. Wheeler is here for 3 more years, Sanchez 6, Nola 6.

                   Mercado is getting his audition this year, Painter will be getting his next year. Suarez is a FA in 2026. Walker has 2 more years but he’s only going to stay if he’s effective. If Abel was performing, I think the call is easy.

                   Can the Phillies afford to trade Aldegheri? For now, I’m leaning to yes, as long as Klassen stays.

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          3. Does anyone know if the ulnar ligament strain is a sign that future added caution is needed? Maybe it is a common thing pitchers experience…. I don’t know!

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       2. Imo he is very likely to be traded.

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52. In yesterday’s (as I write this) game Ranger S gave up one of his HR’s on a first pitch (off speed) curve ball – not one of his more common pitches to that point. Not that I counted but I would guess over 80% had been sinkers. According to Gameday the location was pretty good at the very bottom of the strike zone, but it was crushed over 400 ft to dead center field. I wonder if he is not disguising his pitches as well as he used to these past three or four starts. Or maybe it is a different lasting residue of the hit-by-a-pitch?

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    1. The fact is, his career ML era is over 3. He’s having a crazy season but he’s not a 1/2 pitcher. He relies on guile and command to get the job done. He really wasn’t going to end the season with a sub 1.5 ERA.

       Not only that, he pitched in 125 innings last season. He’s already at 108 innings. His career high was 2022: 29 starts, 155 innings. He’s on pace for 180+ innings.

       I think it’s inevitable that the Phillies go to a 6 man rotation in August for a stretch, ideally when Walker comes back healthy.

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53. Did any of you catch the Fox guys talking to Thomson about areas of improvement for Phillies? They said he had no response as to the idea that he is happy with the roster he has at this point. Most likely that is a smokescreen for what is going on behind closed doors. They did mention though that Merrifield is a huge favorite of his. So maybe not a smokescreen. We know Casty is. Hoping Phillies can pull one out today. 10 vs 8 games look lots nicer at this point. Here is just a question for anyone. Does anyone have a concern with Bohm doing the HR contest? He really is not a home run hitter and I know in the past I have heard guys who competed that they felt contest kind of messed up their swing going forward for a while. Any thoughts.

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    1. I am concerned that he’s going wear himself out or modify his swing. I would rather he didn’t do the HR derby.

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    2. It seems Thomson could very convincingly deny the Phils’ interest or need to improve the squad. Why signal possible moves or where the Phils could be looking? There is no reason on God’s green earth for him to say “We’re dying to lengthen our bullpen and add a right handed bat.”

       Going 2-4 head-to-head with the Braves so far this season can’t be lost on Dombrowski. The Phils are missing bats in the order but they’re being outpitched.

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54. Bowden thinks the Phillies are targeting:

    – Luis Robert Jr.
    – Jazz Chisholm
    – Cody Bellinger

    And thinks it will cost us Miller. I would NOT trade Miller for any of those guys.

    https://x.com/ArcainiLuke/status/1809969899889987994

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    1. Ditto……Miller is a keeper in my estimation.

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    2. If have to think , for Robert, the WSox if they cannot get Miller will want Crawford as the front line prospect in return, then I assume a minor league pitching prospect, ie Aldegheri, and maybe a middle infielder.

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55. I thought Mercado got lucky in his starting debut because he left a bunch of balls up and the Cubs didn’t take advantage.

    In today’s game, with him being so wild and the ball flying out, he got punished. The numbers were as bad as it looked. He couldn’t throw strikes, he was hanging pitches, just a game to forget. He should still get his next start vs the A’s on Saturday.

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    1. ……… your thoughts on Phillips?

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       1. I was impressed with the 4 innings by Phillips. He has a good sweeper and he threw it early and often against RH hitters. Just on that pitch alone, he could be a 7th inning reliever, mainly vs RH hitters. He struck out Ozuna twice on sweepers. His curveball is decent and he has enough fastball (93-95) but not a lot of movement. I think for Phillips to take the next step as a starter, he needs to get more movement on his fastball/sinker and/or introduce a cutter. There aren’t too many starters that throw non-fastballs 60% of the time, so not sure if it’s sustainable in the long run.

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    2. I didn’t say anything about it because I didn’t wanna sound like a downer on a young guy’s promising start, but yeah. Today was exactly what I feared he was gonna be.

       But hey, a little adversity can go a long way in developing. So hopefully he can bounce back strong and learn from this start.

       On the other hand, I’m officially concerned about Ranger. His start against Detroit is whatever. It wasn’t great, but the defense did him no favors. But the last two are purely him not locating his pitches. It’s still possible he was just off his game and he’ll be back in form next time. But the pessimistic Philadelphian in me says he’s hiding an injury.

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       1. For Ranger…maybe ‘dead arm’…fatigue….already 108 innings pitched in 18 starts…..the break will help.

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56. Phillies have lost 3 of the last 4 games and in those losses scored 2-1-0. What I have learned in that span:

    The Phils can’t seem to win a regular season series from the Braves. Thank goodness they can in the post season.

    Mercado can hang with the Cubs but when it comes to the Braves (even minus Acuna) he is totally outclassed.

    Rojas still can’t hit in MLB even after tearing up AAA and chances are never will. Please don’t trade Crawford.

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    1. Crawford is making very good progress. He was in high school two years ago and now is hitting close to .300 in high A. Keep him, let him develop and you have a starting Phillies CF in his low 20’s.

       I would move him to Reading. He is very hot and I feel that is when you promote people. Miller started very hot then went into a bad slump, was promoted and then continued his slump. I would like to see Crawford in Reading.

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       1. Their all-star break is the same time as the MLB break ….July 15-18….he could be promoted to Reading at that time.

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57. Congratulations to the Phillies for having 7 representatives for the AS game.

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    1. Amazing. Truly amazing. And that doesn’t include Sanchez who is extremely deserving.

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       1. Note that Zack Wheeler will NOT be pitching in the AS game since he will pitching on Sunday.

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58. Feel Phillies need to go at least 3-3 this week at home before break. Need to start to get some momentum back and keep Braves at length. They head west.

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59. new name floating around

    Brent rooker A’s

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    1. Brent Rooker is 29, but he already has 2.4 WAR for the season and 3 years of control. He’s going to cost the Phillies a considerable amount, something along the lines of Crawford, Abel, Aldegheri/Klassen.

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       1. How about Rojas, Aldegheri & Abel or Rojas, Abel and Mercan?

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          1. I cannot stress this enough: You have to give talent to get talent.

             Abel is a top 100 guy but he really hasn’t performed well and will likely be out of the top 100 soon enough. So the A’s need to get a legit top 100 guy for Rooker. You can pick between Miller or Crawford, but I can pretty much guarantee that the Phillies are not getting Rooker without giving up one of those guys.

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       2. Were the market and high costs force the Phils to turn their attention from CF to a corner outfielder to platoon with Marsh, I wouldn’t be disappointed.. Rookery would be fine and also Randy Arozarena, also 29, who is emerging from a slow ’24 start. He’s been consistent heretofore. I wouldn’t part with Crawford but the Phils could afford the likely asking price for a Rooker, Arozarena, De La Cruz or Thomas.

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          1. With Crawford, Miller, Caba (assuming Painter is untouchable), the Phillies can pretty much get whatever player they want, it’s just a matter of how much the Phillies are willing to give up.

             And make no mistake, with so many teams still in it, you will be surprised at what some players will get traded for.

             For example, the Rays traded Aaron Civale to the Brewers. Civale has 1 year of control left, but he’s been terrible since mid 2023. So this was more of a change of scenery trade (although the Brewers desperately need pitching) and the Brewers gave up Gregory Barrios, a 20 year old IF prospect at high-A. A Phillies comp would be trading Will Bergolla for Civale.

             If a non-performing, change of scenery player can get that type of return, imagine what a good player like Rooker will get you.

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          2. Arozarena and Lane Thomas both have a history of past performance and they are controllable for at least 1 more year so they won’t go as cheap as you think. Bryan De La Cruz has been replacement level his entire career and he’s looking like a career backup, so he should be had for an ok price.

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             1. I like Lane Thomas and I think he’d help our team as he would be a more competent, professional AB than Rojas come playoff time. That said, he’s batting .245 (.250 lifetime) with just 8 HR and 10 doubles. His K/BB ratio is 3:1. I like that he’s not terrible in LF and he can steal a base for you. But he’s not all that. What realistically would we have to give up for him? I’m thinking nobody in our top 5 or 6…

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                1. Lane Thomas had 3.3 WAR last season and he’s still under control for 1 more year. Aldegheri and Boyd for Lane Thomas.

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                2. Lane Thomas will probably not be a Nat for much longer anyways after this season…..Wood and Crews will be in their outfield soon, and then there are 4 other OFers in their top ten prospects.

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                3. @Romus, Jesse Winker is a FA after the season so Crews can take his spot whenever Winker leaves. The other OF prospects are not close so the Nats can easily keep Lane Thomas for another season and hope for a bounce back, similar to Jesse Winker. The moral of the story is that the Nats are not in a rush to trade Lane Thomas. They’ll definitely try to trade Winker.

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60. Ok,……………. when may I expect these hypothetical trades to breech the gap of imagination ……. into reality?

    this week …(w/e 7/15)

    next week …(w/e 7/22)

    week after …(w/e 7/29)

    sundown 6:00 pm 7/30

    or will DD let the sunset on this group?

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61. Skeet…assume after the all-star break he will make his move.

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62. I fully respect the guys here who are mentioning Pham, Lane Thomas, etc….but if they really think this is the year, you have to get a difference maker. Unlike some, I’d trade Miller for Robert, though I know I am higher on Robert than many here and I don’t know the behind the scenes stuff about his attitude that Jim talks about. Gotta think Harper and Schwarber would take care of any attitude issue though, and the guy has all star potential. I spent my whole youth overvaluing prospects. I was mad when they gave up Michael Taylor for Blanton. I was mad when they gave up Singleton AND Cosart for Pence and I thought Sixto was too much for JT (really thought Sixto was the next Pedro Martinez hahaha).

    The truth is, a lot of these guys dont work out. And even if they do, if we get a title, its fine. If Aiden Miller becomes Luis Robert-esque, he’ll be considered a success. So why are we so scared to trade him for the actual thing? For me, its Robert, Arozerena, Rooker in that order. Dont want any part of jazz who i think is just flat out overrated as a player.

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    1. I also like Robert….but the glaring red flag is his lack of games played over the last three and half years……348 out of a possible of 560.

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    2. Could be the latest version of Byron Buxton of the Twins.

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    3. Dan, I think Harper is more likely to block a trade than correct any known issue acquired from a trade in which he wasn’t consulted. Or went against his opinion when asked. Block and consulted may be too strong in this example, but Harper has recruited for the Phillies in the offseason. I believe his opinion carries a lot of weight with DD.

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63. Kudos to Aaron Nola on earning his 100th career win this past week. In Phillies franchise history, he is currently 8th in wins, 4th in strikeouts, 7th in games started, and 6th in WAR. With 16 more wins he’ll move into 5th place in wins, and he’ll pass some pretty good Phillies pitchers: Curt Schilling, Cole Hamels, and Curt Simmons.

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    1. The game was the ultimate Nola paradox. Overall he was very good. But two separate times he gave up a homer immediately after getting run support. Its so frustrating. At least this time he gave them up to bonafide players and not 9 hole hitters with 2 career homers. Im not a hater at all, and you take that pitching line vs the braves all day, but its such a frustrating aspect of his game and i think its why not everyone sees him as a star. Again though, ill take that performance. Just seems like its mental with him.

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64. A bunch of swing videos from FCL. Caba and Tait to start. And then a mix of Phillies and Yankees for the rest of the video.

    https://x.com/jnorris427/status/1810127840735613120

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65. Mock trade that I would do:

    Bellinger for Mick Abel, Gabriel Rincones Jr., Michael Mercado

    I would do that.

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66. Closing this discussion thread.

    New discussion at Phillies Discussion, 7/8/24 | Phuture Phillies

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