260 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion, 5/20/24”

1. Jim: Nice narrative!👍

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2. That was a very good article by Josh Norris on pitchers and the philosphy employed these days by teams of keeping them healthy or trying to..

   As he said we are in the ‘pitcher-protection era’…..but somehow, it does not seem to have as much success as envisioned.

   Led to think back to probably one of the original hard throwers of the game …Bob Feller…who some said threw when calculated at the time to have reached 98.6 mph , later raised to 104 mph  using updated measuring methods.

   No one limited his innings–over 200 per year for 12 seasons— or completing games–279 for his career— for that matter.

   Bob Feller Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

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   1. “Rapid Robert” ………… Indians “oops not politically correct” were my team. Bob Lemon, Mike Garcia, Early Wynn and another flame thrower, Herb Score.

      Herb had a lot of misfortune in life. Ran over by a truck when he was young, contacted rheumatic fever, and then had the misfortune of taking a line drive off the bat McDougald to the head which impaired his vision for about a year. He was never the same after that, but claimed it was not getting hit, but that he tore a ligament in his arm and changed his delivery to try and compensate for the injury.

      Romus, your point is a good one, if in the 50’s they had the medicine we had today, what would their career achievements been like? As it was, they didn’t shy from taking the ball ……… another guy was Nolan Ryan he threw a lot of innings. (27 yrs)

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   2. Went back and looked at Nolan’s innings and he went over 200 innings 14 years and 2 of those years he was over 300 innings. Again, from a flamethrower.

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      1. Romus and oldruff. Now you guys are going back to my time. One thing about some of these guys they were farm kids. So, they were used to hard work. I think both Feller and Ryan fell in this category. But not sure. Back in those days the manager handed you the ball and you were expected to go 9 innings. Also, those that you speak of bad luck on their side. There has to be good fortune when one pitch could bring an end to the party. Another guy back in the day was Bob Gibson. I am sure he had really good numbers as well. Randy Johnson another though not as far back.

         I wonder oldruff if they would have been as good if they were monitored then like a kid is today. Back then you pitched. No one tracked number of pitches or innings. Just a different time.

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3. Hey Jim, if you are using MLB.tv to watch Phillies games, a new feature this year is that you can switch to the radio broadcast which is generally synched up perfectly with the tv broadcast. This is especially wonderful getting to listen to Franzke and LA on days where Schmidt and/or Ruben are on tv, like yesterday.

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   1. I used to do that several years ago. Now, I stream on Extra Innings or NBC Sports Philadelphia. I prefer NBC. Don’t mind watching some Philly commercials and get the pre- and post- game stuff. Love watching the day care throwing water on the star of the game.

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      1. Jim. I get Extra Innings. Lots of times I only get the broadcast of the other team. But that is good at times. I get to hear how the broadcasters are talking about the Philles. Some are very positive. Some not so much. Other than the teams close to my area who I always get their broadcasters I have never figured out why on the others why I get Phillies sometimes and sometimes only the opponent broadcast. I probably get Phillies guys 50% of the time. Yes, Taryn does a nice job with her interviews and reports.

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4. Would the Phils release Whit or Pache to keep Clemens? I don’t see it happening. Would they release one of them for a right handed hitting upgrade through a small deal? Yes, that could happen.

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   1. Murray, they did release Didi and Odubel in past seasons so not out of the question. I’d keep Pache – I know he’s somewhat redundant with Rojas but at least in a playoff game if Rojas starts, you can pinch hit for him in the 8th inning with Clemens as an example, and then put Pache in the game defensively and not skip a beat. So I can see a role for Pache to add value. As for Whit, I see no value defensively and would I want him pinch hitting for Marsh late in a playoff game against a tough LHP? Probably not.

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5. Jim. Very nice write up. It is a really nice time to be a Phillies fan. I too think as Romus, and I have discussed that a formidable closer may be the most important piece needed down the line. I have no idea who they may have in mind, but I do think they may believe that as well. I do hope that they find a way for Clemens to stay up. He like some of the other youngsters adds that youthful enthusiasm. Great job Cody. Keep it up. I also like J.T. in the second spot.

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6. Been thinking about the topic of adding an elite closer at the deadline for a top prospect. Of the top guys who are gettable, Helsley is very interesting. I would definitely give up Abel for him.

   But the real star to get is Mason Miller. I know that he will cost a lot. Maybe Crawford and Abel. But he is truly elite. His numbers are like a video game. He has a 0.00 FIP. A 418 ERA+. Video game numbers. With Miller in the 9th and Alvarado and Hoffman in 7th and 8th. We would have the best pen in MLB. Combined with elite SP and a great lineup. That’s a championship club.

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   1. v1. Romus and I have spoken on Miller, Kopech, and Helsley. I have seen Miller a few times. He is almost like a BP Skenes. Almost every pitch seems around 102 or 103 in times I have seen him. Kopech was really wild the night I saw him against Nats. He held a 4-0 lead but barely. Couple walks and couple wild pitches. Romus has concerns on Miller and future health. He likes Kopech and thinks Helsley might be the best option. I like Helsley. I do think one final piece is needed to complete the bullpen. I have no idea who they have in mind.

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   2. It’s an interesting package you mention. As for Crawford, I view him as the most movable piece they have. The team is fine in centerfield now and into the future without him, I don’t view him as a future star, and he is highly regarded as a prospect, so this makes him a movable piece. As for Abel, you hate to give up on a starting arm, but he’s now a moderately high risk player, so you have to view him as a possible trade chip.

      Personally, I think it’s going to take another, smaller, piece to get Mason Miller – perhaps Devin Saltiban (I move him over NPG in a heartbeat – Pouaka-Grego, in my view, has minor star potential).

      But, if I think Mason Miller is truly healthy and his arm is sound, do I trade Abel, Crawford and Saltiban for him? With another 5 years of team control after this one – yeah, I definitely might do that trade. It’s a lot to pay, but Miller would be an anchor in the pen for half a decade and it would probably put them over the top this year. Also, you would still have all of your top prospects – Painter and Aiden Miller, not to mention Caba.

      You are trying to win a championship and this helps you to do that now and over the next few years.

      Yes, do it.

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      1. There are 3 guys I would probably not trade for Mason Miller: Painter, Aidan Miller, and Klassen . . . with Caba close behind.

         If the trade was Klassen and a lesser prospect (Sam Adegheri? Eduardo Tait?) for Miller – yeah that would be hard one.

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         1. But . . . if the A’s come to you and say “Miller for Miller”

            Do you do it? It would be a close call, but I’d still probably say yes, but, damn, that would hurt.

            If they said “Painter for Miller”, I’d say no. Painter’s ceiling is the HOF (seriously) and you build farm systems to draft and develop players like Andrew Painter – he is all but untouchable in my view.

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   3. let’s just chill and reevaluate that after 4th of July….

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      1. So don’t post any thoughts or reactions or ideas until July 4th?

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         1. talking about trading multiple top prospects (in our org) for a closer, yea….let’s wait on that

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            1. Any trade won’t happen until the deadline. I don’t understand the point that we can’t talk about that ahead of time. We talk about trades on this blog all the time.

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               1. V1, I recommend ignoring this guy. He was here before and seemed to try and annoy people with argumentative and ill-informed comments, like where he called Sosa a butcher somewhere above or below.. If he doesn’t get responses, he’ll probably go back where he’s been these past months. If not, he’ll eventually say something that’ll get himself blocked.

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         2. Topper deserves some credit here for how he’s been using Alvarado and Hoffman that makes it easier for King Dave to go get us someone like Mason Miller. Had he established Alvarado as the closer and dedicated 9th inning guy, it would be potentially disruptive to trade for a 9th inning guy and demote someone like Alvarado. But the fact that they’ve created this dynamic where they play the matchups, you can easily slide a Mason Miller in as a 9th inning guy or as one of 3 weapons you deploy in the last 2-3 innings depending on matchups and everybody stays happy.

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            1. Agreed. I doubt any of the players would be upset by adding an elite arm like Mason Miller.

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7. I believe that DD will add an experienced reliever – maybe not a Helsley who is clearly the best – most llikely traded – pitcher to be available. I suspect DD will hesitate to interrupt the chemistry of this team “too much.” Somebody like the A’s Erceg, or Tiger’s Alex Lange.

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8. I thought I was hallucinating but ex-Phillies starter Ben Lively is now pitching for the Guardians! How is that guy still in the bigs? His fastball was topping out at 89-90. He’s 32 and he’s still arbitration eligible! He’s actually having a decent season.

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9. I agree with Jim Ruben is annoying. I enjoy everyone but him, Taryn is a godsend so beautiful.

   I think we should definitely go a closer type for sure, baseball wise, even tho chemistry or vibes are important, the bullpen is easier to accommodate IMO.

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10. Since we’re talking about Reuben, I live in LA and watch the Phils on MLB TV. He’s annoying. Whenever he’s on, I watch the other team’s broadcasts. He talks too much and laughs at his own stories. I think he’s gotten better, but Davis and Kruk are much better. Meanwhile, Taryn Hatcher could be interviewing someone about their dog while Stubbs hits a walkoff grandslam in the 16th and she wouldn’t break from talking to the dog owner. At least Murphy would acknowledge there was something happening on the field.

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    1. I saw one game where Taryn was interviewing a kindly middle aged nurse who kept talking and marketing her worthwhile program – meanwhile the Phillies had guys smashing baseballs out of the reach of opposing outfielders, runners circling the bases, and a major rhubarb at home !!!

       I was screaming at the tv – is there a game being played here or not ??? What is the score and what’s happening. I think the nurse talked for an entire three outs and Taryn was reluctant to end the interview !!! Exasperating !!!

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       1. RU……LOL, yes saw that episode…..love nurses, but there is a time and season for everything. You would think the producers would have a clue why people watch ballgames. It is so easy to pre-record those interviews, with cut work done prior to the game to fit it in time slots, and air them between innngs.

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          1. RU and Romus. I saw that interview. It was nurse appreciation night at the park. I thought Taryn tried different times to move on, but the nurse just kept talking. Even at the end when it was over the gal starting on another topic. I thought she was trying to be as polite as she could possibly be.

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    2. It’s odd. I was extremely critical of Ruben as a GM, but I really like him as an announcer and he doesn’t annoy me at all. He said something the other day that I thought was accurate, which was he can’t recall a pitcher improving as much as Christopher Sanchez has. I think he’s right on the money. Otherwise, I enjoy his commentary – he knows a lot about baseball from the perspectives of a player, coach and front office person. I also like Kruk (I mean, who doesn’t?) and Ben Davis is fine too. Mike Schmidt isn’t a great color guy, but, who cares? He’s MIKE SCHMIDT – I’ll take whatever crumbs the great one can leave behind.

       As for the main men behind the mic, Tom McCarthy, over the years, has really grown into his role and stature as the team’s primary voice and gone are the days when he was something of a chuckling Charlie with Wheels (who I, along with many others, hated) and Sarge (great guy, great player, terrible announcer) on the announcing team.

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       1. I am fine with all of them. I think they all add something that the other may not. I am just very appreciative that I am able to get almost every Phillies game live. Schmitty was one of my guys back in the radio days. I still remember out driving a tractor in the field the day he hit 4 HRs against Cubs at Wrigley.

          I just looked on Extra Innings for time and channel tonight and noticed that Yankees are only one game 33 behind Phillies 34 wins and Guardians are at 31. Dodgers were not listed yet but know they are high as well.

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          1. I think they are all good then all of them getting annoying after a while which is why I like that they have them on rotation LOL

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       2. I think Rube is good

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    3. the home broadcasts have become infomercials for the advertisers on the outfield walls, vendors in the ballpark, and mlb merchandise. It is completely over the top and totally annoying. Harry and Whitey must be rolling over in their graves! Tom is a very likeable man who is an awful baseball broadcaster. I need to start watching visiting broadcasts sometimes.

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       1. Tried that last season. Homerism runs rampant from those broadcasts especially Toronto, Washington, New York, New York, Atlanta, almost any team with a vowel in the name. I used to like the Miami broadcasts but then they fired Tommy Hutton and they’ve sucked since, too.

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11. I asked Romus. But did any of you participate in the Phillies auction that ended Sunday? Taryn was doing a nice job of promoting it sitting the Phanatic’s 4-wheeler. Romus you would look good cruising Philly on it. It looked like they had lots of neat things in it. Looked like tv crew were signing about everything they had available to sign on Sunday.

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    1. Don……I did not participate in the auction….Phanatic does a good job maneuvering with his Phanamobile….I’ll pass on it.

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12. Remember a tale about Gibson, where he uncorked a wild pitch at the batter on the on-deck circle and admonished …….. “don’t be timing me”! He was an enduring guy as well …… with an attitude! …… and who can forget Kruk’s eye’s in the all-star game when Johnson put that fastball by his nose! If it wouldn’t have been rotating it would have been close enough to read the commissioner’s name.

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    1. Bob Gibson was the ultimate bad ass (probably exceed by UFC-trained fighter, Kyle Farnsworth – who would body slam you if you charged the mound). He would hit you for looking at him the wrong way or crowding the plate. And if you dared to charge the mound, Gibson had been a golden gloves boxer, so he was going to put you down. And he was doing this at a time when segregation was in place early in his career and was just being phased out so that had to give him an extra edge; an extra bit of (justified) anger. You did not mess around with Bob Gibson.

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       1. You may recall the catcher/ comic Bob Uecker telling the story of walking out to the mound to talk to a fiercely glowering Bob Gibson – when Gibson told him to get back behind the plate, Uecker replied that he was just on his way to talk to Curt Flood, the center fielder.

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          1. NICE!

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          2. Bob Gibson catcher-to-the-mound story # 2.

             Tim McGarver goes to the mound to give Bob Gibson “advice” about pitching and Gibson says “the only thing you know about pitching is how hard it is to hit.” Back at ya, Tim!

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       2. Gibson was the most intimidating guy I can remember on the mound. He was a bad dude. Plus, lots of talent.

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          1. Don…and not a bad hitter either…one year he hit over .300.

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             1. Romus. He was just good. Gullet was the hardest thrower I saw in person. I am thinking he was 2 years older, and we were in a tourney my first year in Legion in Kentucky or Ohio. I think Don went almost immediately to majors. The second hardest was a kid I played Legion with. He got drafted by Giants pretty early in 73. Buddy Choate threw really hard at South Alabama and no idea where it was going. I was so thankful Coach Stanky always let me take BP off of him. LOL. But none gave the stare that Gibson did on the mound. I had forgot about him throwing at the on-deck hitter.

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13. Jim, I enjoyed your excellent write-up. Fans can project their hopes beyond the game at hand. The players and manager don’t have that luxury.

    In my mind, the Phils have a time window for success that allows one to think about winning back-to-back titles, beginning this year. The Phils have never done that.

    Turner’s return, barring an injury elsewhere creates a roster crunch. I’d retain Clemens and dangle Pache as trade bait for whatever small return he generates. I think every team in baseball has a Pache-equivalent, a 25 year old position player who is aging out of being considered a prospect and is out of options.

    Using a multi-year time frame, I’d avoid giving up value for any closer who is a rental. If I were Dombrowski approaching the trade deadline, I’d be asking myself what if my current crop of outfielders on the big team have no improvement in their futures. If what you see is what you’re going to get, do you look to make an upgrade in the off-season and retain Crawford in the meantime?

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14. I think Abel is the #4 pitching prospect in the organization behind Painter, Klassen and Mercado. Having said that I would be hesitant to trade him. He would be expendable if they had a healthy Painter and still had Ben Brown. But as of now he is the starter closest to the bigs and there is nobody other than Mercado (who may be a reliever) near ready for the bigs.

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    1. Abel is in AAA…Nola was just a couple years younger when he was drafted…relax on Abel

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15. Mercado might be a useful piece this year — they might not need to trade for a reliever if they can add another 99 mph arm from the farm.

    The hole in the team is outfield production, especially against lefties, with an outfield of Pache, Rojas, and Castellanos. At least against righties, Marsh has pretty good numbers.

    On the other hand, check out the OPS+ numbers for Harper, Stott, Turner, Sosa, and Bohm. If they keep this up, this would be the most productive Phillies infield ever.

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16. What’s more stunning:

    Ranger Suarez 2.5 WAR (I read an article that said that Ranger essentially turned into Tom Glavine)

    Alec Bohm 2 WAR (0.0 dWar!)

    Edmundo Sosa 1.1 WAR (vs Whit Merrifield 0.2 WAR)

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    1. That WAR is being offered as a definitive way to determine if these players are good or not?

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       1. Just that they’re having good years. WAR is just a stat to compare what players have done; not what they’re capable of doing in the future or what they’ve accomplished in the past.

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    2. idc what anyone or their data says….Sosa is a butcher at ever position in the field…feel like people are blind watching him

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17. NL East
    Phillies 35-14 .714
    Braves 27-18 .600 6.0

    The Braves have 4 games in-hand. They would have to win all 4 games just to get to 4.0 games back.

    NL
    Phillies 35-14 .714
    Dodgers 33-18 .647 3.0
    Braves 27-18 .600 6.0

    MLB
    Phillies 35-14 .714
    Yankees 33-17 .660 2.5
    Guardians 32-17 .653 3.0
    Dodgers 33-18 .647 3.0
    Orioles 29-16 .644 4.0
    Royals 31-19 .620 4.5
    Braves 27-18 .600 6.0

    These are just too cool to look at.

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    1. Jim. I agree. Couple things caught my attention yesterday on Extra Inning game previews. Phillies record but the fact that there are a few other teams that are right there with them. Then the Pirates and Reds. Both have really dropped off after strong starts. I think Reds only had 19 wins and Bucs 22 maybe.

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    2. Royals are  really a surprise…..all that young talent is starting to put it together…led by Witt Jr

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       1. I love it. Its the game within the game to see which franchises can draft, develop then transition into a winning club that competes against the big salaries.

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       2. Romus. Speaking of Witt think it was Ansinger the other night who did a list of his top 5 most exciting players in MLB at the moment. He had De La Cruz as 1. Skenes as 2, then Witt and Henderson were in, and I think Miller was in the top 5. Forget the order for sure. But they showed highlights of Witt, and he is really good defensively. It does amaze me when we see the Phillies win almost daily and you look and there are 3 or 4 other teams almost right there as well. One thing though is the have nots are starting to come into fruition as well.

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       3. It helps that Seth Lugo is having a career year at age 34 and that the always underrated Salvador Perez is still hitting. I hate to say it, but Perez is the best catcher in baseball.

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18. Aaron Nola is having a great season, then when compared to Wheeler and Ranger it pales. Harper’s stats are starting to look real good.

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19. Kiley McDaniel @ ESPN just dropped a new top 50 prospects:

    11. Andrew Painter. Painter is a potential ace who looked to be big-league ready in March of 2023 but was shut down during that spring training and won’t throw a competitive pitch until 2025 due to a PRP followed by Tommy John surgery. 

    29. Aidan Miller. Miller was a popular pick to click from the 2023 draft’s muddled group of late-first round prep position players. He was old for his class and missed most of the spring with a broken hamate bone, but also had the longest track record in the class. He’s now looking passable defensively at shortstop (when many, including myself, thought he had no chance of sticking at the position at draft time) and is going off at Low-A, completely eliminating the injury and age concerns from 12 months ago.

    Interestingly, he has Miller ranked right before his #3 prospect in the upcoming MLB draft.

    No other Phillies in top 50.

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/40185182/top-50-2024-mlb-prospects-updated-paul-skenes-jackson-holliday

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20. Rumors keep floating around, Zach Eflin may be pitching again at Citizen’s Bank Park…unfortunately as a Brave when they visit. Seems the Braves are in dire need of starting pitching. I assume the Rays will want two of the Braves top five prospects….all young and RHPs.

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    1. Didn’t Efflin just go on the IL?

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       1. Skeet….yes lower back inflammation…..who knows, maybe keeping him on ice until a trade is done with the Braves.

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          1. Eflin is supposed to be out 2-4 weeks.

             And the Braves system is brutal right now.

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             1. Agreed, not sure what the Braves would offer for Eflin that TB would want.

                Their top prosect is Smith-Shawver who’s been so-so in AAA so far to the point where they bypassed him when they demoted Elder.

                Only other prospect is Waldrep who’s in AA with mediocre numbers overall and is potentially going to end up as a reliever.

                Also add in that adding Eflin and his salary probably pushes Atl into the next tax bracket.

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                1. Braves have $41M coming off the books in Nov…..Morton, Fried and Minter. They may try to resing Fried…..but they normally move on from what they have done in the past with their star free agents. Eflin would cost them $9M this year and $13M next season then he is also a free agent. Cannot see how it would be a hindrance from axquiring him…..and Rays are looking to dump the reminder of his contract…..so any of the two top Braves pitching prospects would probably work

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                2. The Rays scout other systems well. The package for Eflin might include a Curtis Mead-like player they have identified that we are not aware of. BTW, Mead is back in Triple-A as of May 6th, .218/.545 not cutting it for the Rays.

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21. Early NL Cy Young leaders for nomination.….Ranger…Cubs’ Imananga….Dodgers’ Glasnow….Braves’ Sale….maybe Reds’ Greene…..maybe Padres’ Cease and Phils Wheeler. I think Ranger tops the leaderboard right now.

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    1. lol … man.. not sure I was ever so wrong on one player coming up. I would’ve traded Ranger back in the day. Well I’m glad I was wrong! He needs to be extended yesterday.

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22. On Efflin – I too read somewhere that the Braves are interested in acquiring him – ditto Romus. The gimmick here is his contract is back end loaded so that he gets paid $18 million in 2025 vs. $ 11 this year and last. Tampa is simply not going to pay one player $18. so he is gone, injury list or not.

    For me the Braves are living on borrowed time. They have one 40 yr old starter who keeps ticking – Morton – go figure ? Two other aces in Sale and Lopez who rarely if ever pitched more than 100 innings in the last 3 years. They are both on borrowed time – the more they are used now they will not be effective at post season. The other 2 slots are Fried who has been injury prone this year and Elder who is not effective. Fried is also a free agent at end of year. Their minor league system does not have alot of tradeable parts – at least not desirable players. So they may have to trade from the major league roster. If Murphy comes back they could trade their backup catcher, d’Arnaud who has been very good – better than most starters. That said, Anthopolous, the GM will figure something out – he is going to have to.

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    1. RU……this year he has already been paid 1/3rd of his 2024 salary…tack on the $18M for ’25, so looks like he has $26M left in total …for the last four months of this season and the six months of next season. I think the Braves will make that work, especially since it is only a little less than $8M left this season.

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       1. Look at it from the Rays side. Can they get a better offer for Eflin from a team with a better farm system? Braves top prospect is comparable to Abel. Would you take Abel for Eflin?

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          1. No, would not do that trade…..but the Rays order of business it appears, is wanting to rid the contract from their payroll, and there may not be any other offers, so you take the first offer or whatever team shows interest first. The Rays priority may be payroll , then getting the best prospect. And who knows how prospects wil turn out….case in point OFer Randy A. from the Cardinals way back when, for the MLB pitcher the Rays gave up at the time.

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             1. They will get offers for Eflin. He’s been good and getting him for this season and short term at $18 million next season as well will be attractive for many teams.

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23. Efflin contract information comes from Cot’s. Baseball Contracts.

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24. Decision time is upon us.. from now and until the trade deadline. The real question is, Does DD go all in? The league looks wounded, gotta strike. Yes, we love our prospects, but if the variables stay mostly the same from now until the deadline… I think DD is going to have to take a big swing. This team would be freaking scary with a lockdown reliever who can throw 103+ mph. (No offense to my boy Alvarado) So… I think you gotta do it. DD should be focused (I’m sure he is) on what player is going to make the Yankees, Orioles,Dodgers, Braves, and the pesky wild card team have troubles in the playoffs. Eveyone of those teams are gunning for that 103+ mph arm – Miller & Helsley… I think the orioles get one of them.
    For me, the only untouchable is Painter. The rest are available in a smart trade, added piece. Mason Miller feels untested imo, but a talent like that … could do wonders for this team.

    Crawford, Abel, Mercado,… Aidan Miller. Some combo of those players can hopefully get it done.

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    1. Aidan Miller is untouchable for me in addition to Painter. Everyone else is available for Mason Miller.

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       1. I can understand that position. I’d be okay with Miller for Miller, but it would be a really close call for me and the only reason I’d consider doing it is because you have a generational team on the field right now and you want to give them every opportunity to win the WS and because you would have such lengthy control over Mason Miller – otherwise, I would never consider trading a potential first division regular prospect (and, really, potential star) for a relief pitcher.

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          1. Mason Miller only appeared in 16 minor league games between 2021-23 prior to being called up to the majors. He has had 2 60-day IL stints, the second at least for forearm issues. He was never a top 100 prospect. While I admit that he has been phenomenal, I would think twice about giving up a major prospect haul in light of the limited track record and injury history.

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             1. MLL. Romus is very skeptical of Miller for the same reason. He has pointed out his past history of injuries. Plus, I saw he is diabetic which I have no idea if that could contribute to any of his issues, but it was mentioned in the article I read. But he has been really good so far. Dan O’Dowd said the best indicator of future injuries is past injuries. So, wait and see, I guess.

                Romus. I heard Taryn mention that the auction made around $550 thousand. She said the mini golf with Bohm and Marsh was around $20 thousand. But Harper and Schwarber deals were higher. No mention on your 4-wheeler ride.

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                1. Don,……diabetes is a bitch and I don’t need anyone’s experience to educate me. If someone can manage it and compete at a professional level, he has my utmost respect……hope he does well.

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                2. Dave Hollins was also a Type 1 diabetic, and so was Bobby Clarke, IIRC. During the age when most athletes are in their careers, it usually does not affect their performance as long as they are not brittle diabetics with dangerous swings in their blood sugar levels.

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25. Romus. I was impressed last night when T Mac gave the all-time best records through 50 games. Learned Tigers 39 is the best followed by Mariners 38. One thing he emphasized it no guarantee. Tigers won. Mariners lost think in first round. It is amazing the 36 wins. Phillies had a few they kind of let get away at the end. They could be right at that 40-win doorstep. But this is awesome start.

    Tac. I do think they will look really hard at getting the guy to end the game who is close to a certainty if they can. I am not sure that guy is on the roster at this time. I have no idea who that may be but Miller, Helsley maybe since Cards are winning now, Kopech may be on the radar. Some here like Mercado and he seems to be doing great at LHV but has yet to do it when the lights are brightest. Guess we just wait and see.

    Romus. T Mac talked of your TTO reference for hitters last night. He mentioned the last at bat for Schwarber that he is at 51% on his at bats. Either a strikeout, walk, or home run.

    One last thought after watching these first two games. I do think the Phillies let a great opportunity to hang another flag slip away last Fall. I know the Rangers were playing really well but I really thought the Phillies had a great chance at 3-2 vs Dbacks to win it all. I realize the Rangers are missing some guys, but Phillies would have been a tough match. We can hope 24 is the year.

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26. Our outfield today averages .194, AVERAGES .194. ………sure hope the top 4 carry the day and Wheeler throws a no-hitter. Guess Rob thought we scored too much yesterday.

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    1. The Mendoza Minions!

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    2. That is a concern going forward. NC seems to be having better at bats recently. Marsh is ok. Rojas and Pache I think are what they are at this point. Rojas may need time. Pache has been around awhile. Whit is only average at best out there.

       Maybe Rob did but Rangers helped a lot. I am not sure I have seen a play like Seager and his soft toss to 2nd and Simien ducks out of the way. I am not sure on this but guess they gave Seager an error on that. T Mac later said on ground ball that it was his 2nd of game. To me there should have been an error on Harper or Stott on first play. Someone has to catch that pop up. For me, no way a base hit should be given. I know. I am old school. Old school says someone catches it. LOL.

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27. Don ……. me too on the charitable “hit” gifting being delved out these days. Well, the announcer says …….. he had to run a long way and it just bounced out of his glove …….. so, …….. error. That was a comical attempt at 2nd between Seager/Simien.

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28. oldruff. Your 194 guys are having a pretty good day so far. I forget who the announcer was but one night JT hit a ball to 3B, and he bobbled it, and they gave a hit. May have been the Sunday night game recently, maybe not but announcer goes it is really difficult to commit an error in today’s game. May have been Rueben. He has been on a lot of games recently.

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    1. Don…they rotate the analyst announcers between Kruk, Ruben and Ben Davis. They will usually have them all together in one game when they take the ‘broadcast booth’ out to a particular section in the park among the fans for a game. Not sure where they are headed this season.

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       1. I’ve been going to Phillies games for more than 30 years (and I go to at least 15 games a year and playoff games). I’ve never gotten a foul ball or a home run – and never really had a shot at one either. And they go and do a broadcast from the stands in dead centerfield and in the first freaking inning they are out there, the batter hits the ball right to Tom McCarthy and, he pulls out his glove and catches it. Son of a . . . . Really?

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          1. Sorry to hear that catch…I will say a prayer that you eventually get a ball …bring your Spalding just in case!

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          2. Romus. I knew they rotate. Kruk would have tough time doing 162. LOL.

             Catch. I hesitate to admit that my 9-year-old grandson went to game at Cincy last year and NC tossed him a batting practice ball. Then after the game one of the Phillies bullpen guys tossed him another. This year they sat right behind the Phillies dugout at Cincy and Brandon Marsh signed a baseball for him.

             I am amazed at how many balls are actually caught by people in the stands. Some are amazing catches. I saw the night T Mac got his ball. Heard him and Rueben mention the other night only one ball in his years has made it back to the booth. They must be pretty high.

             Good luck getting a ball. We will all be pulling for you.

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          3. catch … with a screename like that? That’s rough. Funny story. I had to opportunities to get a ball. 1st was at the vet when I was like 12. 1st row of the upper deck, behind 1st base. Had my glove (like a loser 🙂 – the ball was coming … I was so freaking excited but the ball was just short, bounced off the bottom of the upper deck wall. I gotta a lot of flack since I didn’t get it due to the glove.. but I definitely would have fallen over.. not worth it

             second chance came last year. I got tickets for son/nephew .. got some flack because the seats weren’t closer (lol) but I knew EXACTLY what I was doing. The family next to us, all 5 of them got up and went to Stuff their faces… lo and behold…. Foul ball comes right where their empty seats are, my kids & nephew scramble for it get it. Yup, I’m DEFINITELY the favorite uncle. Didn’t hear crap about the seat selection afterwards either!

             anyways if you want a ball… try section 139, closer to the concourse.. you get a shot at all the balls that foul hers. We had like 5 opportunities, almost got 2. I hope that helps “catch”

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29. Good thread on how Ranger has improved this past season. good detail on his pitches.

    https://x.com/AdamNaliwajko/status/1793051687260660022

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30. Vivala Mendoza Minions, Ole Ole!

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31. Talk about the pressure now being on Walker. After Turnbull did so well in his absence, he has got to be feeling he needs to step up. Forget the guaranteed money/contract. He’s got to be feeling that he needs to show that it was a good signing by the team. I didn’t like it from the get-go but I have always remained hopeful. I know he’s making a ton of money but I still feel bad for the guy.

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    1. Yeah, 4 years, and $72 million. Don’t feel THAT bad for the guy. He’ll be fine and there are worse thing for him and the team than them moving him and his contract at the appropriate time. He would be valuable to a very good hitting team that needs steady innings. The Phillies would have to eat some of the salary, but it would be worth it.

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       1. Dodgers could be a team that may need another starter…right now they only have two starting pitchers with a FIP under 3.8….if not a NL team, maybe go down the road to Baltimore, the Orioles may be able to use him. Like you say the Phillies will need to eat salary…and the more than can, the easier it is to move him….and maybe also pick up a prospect or a reliever in the transaction.

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       2. I don’t think they would have to eat any salary. The Phillies had a deal in place with an American League team in case they were able to sign one of the free agents this past offseason. It was a straight up swap for a minor leaguer(s) with no money changing hands. The deal never happened because the Phillies didn’t sign one of the free agents. I was led to believe that the deal was still on the back burner well into the Grapefruit/Cactus League season.

          There was and still is a need for pitchers that can start and eat innings. We may not appreciate him at his salary, but there are even more teams with a need for starting pitching now. We just finished sweeping a team with more starters on the IL (de Grom, Scherzer, Eovaldi, Gray) than in their rotation. I think his value in a trade would be even higher than it was in the spring. Although I don’t think he returns a major piece, I don’t think the Phillies would have to pay any of his contract down.

          I’m also not sure that the Phillies are looking to trade him. Turnbull was never going to throw over a hundred innings this season. He hasn’t thrown as many as 60 since 148 in 2019. Unless they trade for a starter, they would have to rely on one of the Lehigh Valley guys – Abel, Buchanan, Phillips. Mercado has started but is still considered a bulk reliever. But, if we want to consider him, too, is one of these guys a better option than Walker? I don’t know. That’s why DD gets paid, to make these types of decisions.

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          1. I’m stunned that the Phillies had a deal in place that didn’t involve eating money. Now Walker did have a decent first season (2.5 WAR).

             His second season will not be as good and he missed a month.

             Very interesting to see if he’s back on the block again this offseason.

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             1. this is walker’s last year with the Phillies IMO. Not that it’s hard to forecast but Walker’s money is ear marked for Ranger. No question. Sanchez & Painter will help keep the SR cost avg back down. Castellanos is the next piece to make way for Stott & Bohm. Whoever survives the deadline out of Crawford & Miller help bring down the everyday players Abha. This team is getting expensive 😃

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          2. I agree with Jim and really don’t understand why that is surprising to people. The 3 seasons prior to this year, Walker had an fWAR of 6.3, which is the 53rd best for SPs in all baseball. There are spots for 150 SPs in MLB, basic supply and demand show that TW is a valuable pitcher. Even this year, he is off to a slow start and has a 0 fWAR, which sounds bad, until you realize that only 74 SPs have a positive fWAR, so again, he is easily a top 150 SP in MLB. And if you believe that he will return to his form from his prior 3 years then he is a top 60 starting pitcher in MLB.

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             1. IMO, not sure WAR is a driver when it comes to evaluating pitchers.

                One thing Gabe Kapler mentioned way back when as the Phillie manager, and I remember, is that he  said all the teams he has been asscoiated with, evaluate pitchers…starters anyway…based on FIP. Walker, except for his last year as a Met, has problems getting under 4.5. That screams back- end rotation guy,  as we know he is now. How many teams will have him on their payroll as a 4th or 5th with approx. $44M left on his contract!

                I can see some of the large market teams being able to absorb his contract in entirety,  even if they break the tax at the lowest level., …but do not see small market teams bidding for him without some salary relief provided by the Phillies.

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                1. not sure Kapler is an expert on pitcher evaluation but I agree that no team is using WAR to evaluate anyone.

                   I also agree with V1 that too many fans under estimate Walker’s overall value in a market where starting pitching is getting harder and harder to find.

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                2. Over the prior 3 seasons, Walker’s FIP was 4.29, good for 69th best among all SPs who qualify.

                   His ERA was 4.11, good for 63rd.

                   Any way you slice it, he is definitely a MLB starting pitcher and in the top 75 or half of all SP spots.

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                3. I am not quibbling about his rank amongst starting pitchers…..I just do not see many teams, other than the large market teams, willing to take on his contract in its entirety.

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             2. for the record, I think walker is a quality pitcher. I believe it’s his last year simply for money equation that is the payroll & roster needs. Like many of us, I anticipate one of the prospects taking the 5th SP next year. Walker’s money needs to be reallocated to keep & extend Ranger imho. Maybe I’m not used to money bags Middleton yet, but there is still only so much money, even in his world. I’ll keep him, but not over the cost of extending Ranger, thus that’s why I see the FO explored/had a deal for him. Not to mention last years playoff use

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          3. Tijuan Walker is the best 5th starter in baseball. I understand his salary says he’s a 3 and we signed him to be a 4 but the phenomenal development of Mr Christopher Sanchez makes Tijuan our 5 and there’s nobody better in baseball to eat innings and win some games as a #5. BTW, Turnbull is also probably the best #6 in baseball. Nola, Wheeler, and Ranger are pretty good too

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32. After a marvelous homestand – 29 and 6 in the last 35 games. Absolutely fantastic. Team leads all in runs scored and only one team has allowed fewer runs (in fewer games at that). They stand at a positive 93 which is the mlb high water mark. Today, the usual players off the bench picked it up with Sosa and Pache having great games. Bohm had more rbi chances but couldn’t pull it off. Nick had a big fly and hit the ball well. Wheels was himself – a W.

    On to the Rockies and Giants for 6 and then home again. This is all a mirage I think ????

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    1. The mirage ends on July 2nd…Phillies 40 day gauntlet ….July 2nd thru Aug 11th..….comes with 31 games vs Cubs, Braves, Dodgers, D-Backs, Twins, Yanks, Seattle and Cleveland…….

       Oakland and Pirates for 6 games, sandwiched in that 40 days.

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       1. Or maybe that’s a stretch where 8 playoff hopefuls Phear the Phillies. See what I did there?

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          1. Yes……..could be the reversed for sure. I cannot wait for that test.

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          2. Hopefully the 8 playoff hopefuls will Phlounder……resulting in a Phlop.

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33. You have a point. Going to Chicago to see the July 2 kickoff game.

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    1. Hopefully you get a good Phillies’ victory and they can keep up the winning.

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34. Using Marsh to punch hit against a righty makes sense. Having him replace Sosa does not.

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35. As it turns out, among Abel, McGarry and Ben Brown – Brown will probably be the best. But who knew? Nobody. But it is a little painful in retrospect.

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    1. Brown was always a very good prospect. But he lost close to three years to TJ surgery and Covid and he was drafted very low from a NY high school and signed for chump change so people never really gave him his due. His minor league K stats are outstanding. I saw him pitch in Lakewood and he was throwing legit heat. Had the build and look of a future quality major league starter.

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36. Watching a little of the Tigers morning game today, and didn’t realize that they had 2 recent #1 picks on their team. In fact, after the Phillies picked Moniak in 2016, 3 teams have actually had 2 #1 picks during that time:

    Tigers: Mize, Torkelson

    Orioles: Rutschman, Holliday

    Pirates: Davis, Skenes

    You can easily guess who got the short end of those #1 picks.

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37. I believe it’s time to do something with Spencer Turnbull. In his 5 relief appearances since T. Walker returned, he has pitched 8 innings giving up 12 hits and 6 earned runs. He has walked 2 and struck out 6.

    He is not a relief pitcher and he doesn’t want to be a relief pitcher. He does not have the mindset to pitched an inning here and an inning there every few days. He’ll do it, of course, but you can tell that he hates it.

    I realize that he’s around as insurance should a starter get hurt. If that happens, it would take weeks for Turnbull to get stretched out. Mercado is in the position to be called up if that is what is needed.

    So I’m saying/writing (now don’t all pile on at once) that they should trade Turnbull now. There are lots of teams out there who’d trade for him. Cash in now and if Walker is traded in the off season, maybe resign him.

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    1. Perhaps you are correct…Turnbull seems to have better results as a starter. I’d prefer , if they shop him, the Phillies should deal him to an AL team. And with his very small contract now, as a rental also….teams will flock to see what it would take to get him.

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    2. What happens if the Braves want to trade for Turnbull? Brewers? Dodgers? If you start limiting which teams you want to trade Turnbull to, the return won’t be as much as you think. And if that’s the case, then why bother? As far as I’m concerned, the Phillies did their job and rehabilitated Turnbull’s value to the point where he will get paid during the offseason. Turnbull (and his agent) should not be complaining. So right now, it’s all about doing what’s in the best interest of the Phillies and that’s keeping Turnbull as insurance.

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    3. You make some good points, I agree, he hates closing and I believe he sees himself as a starter. Furthermore, I don’t think he’ll be back with the Phillies next year in any capacity, so you might as well get what you can for him while there is a need somewhere and you have the surplus.

       .

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    4. You realize that Turnbull is injury insurance but want to trade that insurance because they haven’t needed it yet? I have not used my life insurance yet either.

       Don’t really care if he likes pitching out of the pen or not because his job is to be available as the #6 starter and I expect he will be needed before the season ends. There is zero evidence that Mercado can fill that role.

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       1. Really, …………do you realize, if you have a used car that you don’t need anymore and someone shows up and says I’ll give you __ for that used car and in 4 mo. you won’t have the title to it anymore ………. you probably should sell it.

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          1. The problem with your analogy is you state as fact it’s no longer needed. I operate under the assumption that he will be needed.

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38. Coors field getting into Ranger’s and Phillies heads. Hitters are overly agressive and Ranger is missing everything.

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39. Acuna out for season with torn ACL on left knee (not right one which he tore several years ago.) Darn shame.

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    1. Wow, almost three years from the time he tore his right ACL. And then 2022 was one of his poorest season that followed. Next season could be a difficult season for him. Losing their ace and best player is a tough road ahead for them. Phillies are fortunate in that regards, so far Turner, and that is only for a couple of months.

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       1. The Braves are obviously in trouble. Looks like they will try to use 35 year old Adam Duvall (0.4 WAR) to replace Acuna. As for replacing Strider, the Braves tried with Elder and others, with limited success. The issue is that the Braves farm system is not that good. They won’t be able to deal for anybody good.

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40. I guess I should realize there is no confusing Alec Bohm with Nolan Arenado.

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    1. Hot topic … but Arenado is arguably the NEW greatest 3rd baseman in MLB history. I said it, not 100% sure but I think thats the way it could shakeout. Don’t hate the messenger 🙂

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       1. No, Michael Jack Schmidt! Arenado and Rolen are comparable.

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          1. Idk, I’d have to dive into to it more, but by the time arenado is done, he could be the new best 3rd basemen. Never really an argument before, but Chipper Jones made is a run at it, Rolen possibly, but arenado is greatest threat to Schmidt

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             1. I feel as an overall player it wasn’t that close. Chipper played almost 20% of his games in the OF where Schmidt played 7% of his games not at 3b/SS. Schmitty was just that much better defensively. Just my 2 cents.

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       2. Is Arenado a very good 3B? Yes.

          Is he better than Mike Schmidt? Not even close.

          Schmidt has 106.9 WAR and 3 MVPs. Arenado has 54.1 WAR and 0 MVPs. The items that are similar are the GGs and Silver Sluggers, which to Arenado’s credit, is a feat in itself.

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          1. And, to put a finer point on this, Rolen had 70 WAR, so Arenado is a good deal behind him and has not played well the last few years. Odds are strong that Arenado will not pass Role in WAR. But Arenado will probably need a few more good years to be legitimate HOF material. Whether he will do that or not is anyone’s guess, but he’s not trending well right now.

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             1. fair enough, I haven’t revisited this since 2022. That said, I think he’ll fall short of Schmidt, but depends if he can play to age 39/40 and be productive. He “should” surpass rolen imho. Arenado is 33, lost a prime year to Covid and is off to an on-arenado type year. His SO are less than rolen, and a few other stats are trending past rolen. Arenado GG is impressive in this era. I will say that’s what pushes him past. Arenado has a shot at joining the 500 club if that is even impressive anymore. Will talk more on it later but he could make a case for top 3 all time 3B. He’s having a hellva career, just needs to get back to his near career averages for a couple years and not drop off a cliff

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             2. Looking at the geatest WAR thrid basemen…Mike S, Adrian Beltre, Eddie Matthews, Wade Boggs -believe it or not..and Chipper–all approx 90 and above WAR—.Arenado does have a ways to go just to get to Rolen’s 70 as you say..

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                1. I was extremely happy when Chipper Jones finally retired because he was a great player and he could really hit.

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                2. There are a bunch of guys who are significantly better than Arenado. We haven’t even mentioned George Brett or Brooks Robinson. Robinson was, pretty clearly, the best fielding third baseman who ever lived. I’ve seen two infielders that I thought, as fielders, were transcendent. One was Ozzie Smith and the other was Brooks Robinson. If you ever want to be entertained by great fielding watch highlights of the 1970 WS – it was a Brooks Robinson fielding highlight reel. One play after the next that was beyond belief.

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    2. whew……………ouchy, did someone sew Bohm’s glove shut? What a spectacle. Merrifield having a bad day, also. Mendoza’s Minions now collectively hitting .199, can’t keep trotting this group out there together.

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41. I can only dream of someone having as much faith in me as Thomson has in aging, over-paid veterans.

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42. I cannot stand the consistent mediocrity of Taijuan Walker. We seriously downgraded the rotation when he was reinserted after he came off the IL. That was a mistake. I believed it then and believe it even more now.

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    1. Time to reinsert Turnbull, Walker becomes long relief guy unless the trade Jim mentioned is still on the table.

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43. At this point Castellanos isn’t just stealing money. He’s using the stolen money to pay for a gun to go back and shoot the team that he stole from.

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    1. And there’s problem number 2. He’s horrendous.

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44. Here are player projections after 1/3 of a season.

    Schwarber 123 runs, 27 hr, 91 rbi, 120 bb, 210 K, .234 AVG, normal

    Turner/Sosa 135 runs, 210 H, 45 2B, 15 3B, .335 AVG, normal/over perform

    Harper 96 runs, 39 hr, 123 rbi, 99 BB, .273 AVG, normal

    Bohm 192 H, 63 2B, 141 rbi, .311 AVG, over perform

    Realmuto 81 runs, 21 hr, 60 rbi, .288 AVG, normal

    Stott 93 runs, 15 hr, 90 rbi, 39 SB, .252 AVG, normal-under perform

    Castellanos 18 hr, 66 rbi,153 K, .199 AVG, under perform

    Marsh 18 hr, 72 rbi, 144K, .262 AVG, normal

    Rojas 39 SB, .226 AVG, under perform

    There is definitely room for improvement offensively.

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45. Here are the pitcher projections after 1/3 of a season

    Wheeler 18 wins, 202 INN, 228 K, .98 WHIP, 2.53 ERA, normal

    Nola 18 wins, 223 INN, 195 K, 1.06 WHIP, 3.04 ERA, normal

    Suarez 27 wins, 216 INN, 231 K, .82 WHIP, 1.75 ERA, over perform

    Sanchez 6 wins, 163 INN, 147 K, 1.45 WHIP, 3.15 ERA, normal/ over perform

    Pitching has been strong, but 4 and 5 are trending downward

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46. Nothing cranks up the comments section like a 2 game losing streak.

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47. Walker is like Kyle Gibson. Guys who can pitch a bunch of innings and be somewhat around league average can make money. To me, it’s not a good use of $18M. I’d rather have Cole Irvin or Bailey Falter as the #5 (or #6) and have $16M or $17M to spend in other areas.

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    1. This is what I like to call Big Money problems. When teams have money to spend on FAs, but now they’re stuck with their non-performing contracts.

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    2. WestCoast – you nailed it! Walker teeters on being the 4th/5th/6th starter – whatever. A lot of that is because the other pitchers are so good on this staff, but, for the Phillies, it’s something of a waste of money. Their 4s and 5s should be young guys and pitchers like Turnbull. That extra money can address other needs – namely, the Ranger Suarez extension.

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48. I wonder if Edmundo Sosa is for real or if this is just a productive blimp along his major league trajectory. If he keeps hitting like he has of late, especially when l Turner is ready to return, what do the Phillies do! It would be a shame to sit Sosa if he is raking.

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    1. Sosa, plays in right a lot of the time, gets ABs against tough lefties, learns to play other outfield slots and is a utility player. If he continues to play anywhere near this good, he needs to be in the line-up almost every day.

       Almost without fail, Dombrowski’s best moves are his subtle ones. Count the Sosa trade as a huge win.

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       1. Sosa jsut may be able to go out to the OF….he has hardly any game experience out there….but he is a good athlete. If you ask me, the Phillies collective total OF OPS is poor —Casty, Pache and Rojas–are just not cutting it at the plate. If the Phillies had any Dodger mentality to them, they would juggle the hot hitting players into the lineup…Dodgers have no qualms moving players around on the field..as long as their bats are playing.

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          1. Are you de-meaning the Mendoza Minions? In this week alone they have raised their collective batting averages from .194 to .199……… as far as giving Sosa a shot in the outfield… I heard of a guy who never played 1rst base and in his first year there, he looks better to me than guys who have always played 1rst base.

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          2. I love how the Dodgers do that too. And with good athletes, it works! You find out that Max Muncy of all people is a good third baseman and can hold his own at second. I would think Sosa, with a little training, would be a much better defensive right fielder than Castellanos.

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    2. Sosa’s hard-hit rate is about 15% higher than his career best while his exit velocities are about the same so I would lean towards he’s on a hot streak vs. he’s suddenly become a 1000 OPS player.

       Ride the streak while it lasts and figure out ways to get him at-bats once Turner returns.

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       1. Thanks, that’s helpful information and, for sure, a lot of this is just him being hot. But I think he has had much better at bats this year – he’s much more discerning at the plate. I mean, he’s not Wade Boggs, but I think he’s improved quite a bit.

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          1. Biggest difference ISee that might point to a sustainable jump is his walk rake is significantly higher in 2024 but sample is a bit small yet.

             If he’s becoming more selective as a hitter that would help sustain his improved numbers

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       2. Then again, for Sosa, playing the devil’s advocate, …..he was never thrust into a starting lineup for any continuos extended period of time in the majors to get any rhythm established. Cardinals never did that for him and this may be the first time with the Phillies. I like to see how long he can ride this wave.

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          1. At age 25, Edmundo Sosa had 3.1 WAR for the Cardinals. Then the following year, he started off cold, he didn’t have any options left, and the Phillies swooped in and traded JoJo Romero for him.

             I think he was a capable player and I was perfectly willing to give him a shot as the SS before the Phillies signed Trea Turner.

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             1. Yes I see that…….he totaled 326 PAs and played mostly ss and 2B, but he only played stretches of starting at either position three times… the first time was for 21 games, then there was 11 and then late second half of the season 14 games in a row. His total WAR of 3.1 also consistent of 1.5dWAR. With the Phillies after two months of the season he has already started two dozen games….of course I realize it is because of the Turner injury that number is elevated from his past career numbers but it is showng he may be capable of more than a versatilty role. I thought he would be exposed by now, but maybe he will continue to be consistent at the plate and trend upward with his current WAR at 1.8 in only 87 PAs-27 games. Some could say this is a SSS and will not normalize until he gets to a steady 150 PAs, I hope the raking does not let up

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          2. From watching him he has begun to hit the ball to the opposite field – he always had the power, but he is now punching the ball down the first base line. Good for Sosa !! His timing has been great too !!

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49. Over the weekend Starlyn Caba became the 100th best prospect in baseball according to MLB https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/starlyn-caba-806965

    He was added to the list following the graduation of the Dodgers’ Andy Pages.

    Over the years posting here, I have noted many times that K rate and BB rate are really strong indicators of future success. More so than batting average which is heavily influenced by sample size. On those two metrics, it is hard to think of another prospect that has been more impressive. Now it is only 67 PAs in rookie ball but his rates look like a typo 23.9% BB rate and a 7.5% strikeout rate. Those look flipped, but they are correct. 16 BBs to 5 Ks. That’s what a 70 hit tool looks like.

    Very exciting prospect.

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    1. Caba needs to be untouchable in trade talks. He could be the Phillies best latin signing ever. You could argue that Caba is more advanced than Jose Altuve at age 18.

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       1. He is exciting. He may end up being great, and I’m really high on him.

          But we have had a lot of great infield prospects who put up great stats in the lower minors who began to struggle in A ball and never really made it out of AA. Let’s be excited, but not get too far ahead of ourselves.

          But I agree that if anyone has a chance to be our next great Latin American hitting prospect, it’s Caba for sure. He checks a lot of boxes.

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          1. “….if anyone has a chance to be our NEXT great Latin American hitting prospect, it’s Caba”……ahh, who was our first?

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             1. Our first was Julio Franco ; George Bell ; and then Juan Samuel.

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    2. Agree with you on K rate.

       Phillies have 5 prospects (Painter, Miller, Crawford, Abel, and Caba) on the MLB Top 100 — when the last time that happened?

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       1. I wouldn’t hold your breath too much on Abel staying there for long, but when you add in Klassen and Aldegheri – there are some good things going on here.

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50. Speaking of Jo Jo Romero, he, Ben Lively and Cole Irvin are having pretty nice seasons. Wishing them well.

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    1. As is Bailey Falter – good for them!

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    2. It is a good thing we have Taijuan to make up for their absences.

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    3. I have noticed the same phenomenon. The Phillies have alot of alumni doing much better than we would have ever thought ? Obviously you can add in Ben Brown and Mark Leiter.

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51. Castellanos thrived in the eighth spot last year, for the love of God Rob put him back there.

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    1. Okay, that’s such a great point. Why are you batting the guy with the under .600 OPS in the five spot all year. Stop it already!

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52. Mariners PoBO Jerry Dipoto’s son , RHP Jonah, is now in the Phillies’ org….LHV signed him. Maybe Jerry will make a favorable trade with Dombrowski and the Phillies come July.

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53. We can add Spencer Howard to that list of former Phillies doing well. Well, at least for one game we can. Just had to be against the Phillies, right? Everybody pounds on the guy but he was untouchable last night. Absolutely pitched with a chip on his shoulder yesterday. Go figure.

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    1. Thinks most anyone could have pitched against the Phillies last night and had success. Not too many good at-bats throughout the line-up.

       They noted during the broadcast how terrible the Phillies have played as a team in that stadium over the past decade. Have now lost 9 straight games at SF.

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    2. We got hits off of him, just weren’t able to get any runs. I wasn’t particularly impressed with his stuff and I noted early in the game Wheeler touched 98 several times which indicated the gun might have been reading hot. Most of the time Spencer was 93-94, I didn’t see anything that made me want him back. Just one of those games where RISP go to waste. You don’t score the gift guy in the 10th, the odds are greatly tilted against you that the opposition will …………. game.

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       1. Skeet…..the team’s overall OF OPS is terrible….Dombrowski needs to do something about that before the play-offs…..with Braves now minus both Strider and Acuna, Phillies have a very good opportunity to stay on top of the division.

          And Rojas…..a mistake keeping him on the active after spring training….if he was sent to LHV, he may have been up now with some confidence, who knows for sure the outcome for him. Phillies did something similar to Rojas with what they did with Maikel Franco 7 or so years ago….should have been sent down to recapture confidence…..he was never the same after that season….hope Rojas does not have the same career trajectory.

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          1. Romus,…..I joke about the Mendoza Minions, but really it’s kinda pathetic and results from them are predictable. My position was always send Rojas to Lehigh.

             The thing is even if you look at his hits .22x, they are dying quail flys that barely make it to no man’s land, worm Beaters that barely evade diving infielders or bouncers that are infield fly rule eligible. Nothing is routinely smacked with authority. Pache, Merrifield, and Castellanos I don’t get it and doubt they’ll Salvage a respectable season.

             Having said that, Pache actually drove a guy home!

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             1. Skeet……..I hear thee…….Rojas’ line drive % this season is the lowest in his career at any level…13%. While his GB% is approx 50%…which it has been in that range historically thru- out his career. So he is not barrelling the ball much at all.

                Once Turner returns…put him in CF and leave Sosa at ss until he starts to level off, or trickle down, at the plate.

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       2. Just need to hope this is a short dry spell. I watched a few innings. Not much happened other than when JT tried to go to 3rd on Harper ball. I thought Wheeler was very good. Too bad to waste a start like that but it happens. Maybe they can get one today and come back home and regroup.

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54. Turnbull is basically a rule 5 player right now who the team is just hiding. He has been relegated to a mop up role and is pretty much taking up a spot in the bullpen.

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    1. Rule 5 player? Unless they DFA him, he is their emergency starter if and when one of the core four of Wheeler, Nola, Ranger and Sanchez go down. Or maybe if Tajuan gets injured or moved in a trade. They may need to start again….at least this way he stays current and more or less is throwing live bullpen sessions

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55. No matter how effective Turnbull has been or has struggled through these recent relief appearances – this pitcher has no interest whatsoever in coming out of the bullpen. His physical posture, demeanor, and bodily movements say — loudly —“I don’t like this job and I am not very good at it ” send off signals like a blaring foghorn in the harbor. He is, indeed insurance, and may yet prove to be exactly what he was acquired to do – meanwhile, it is one giant slog for him. Maybe its the $$ he thinks he is missing out on with a next year huge starting pitcher contract, but he needs to adapt and grow into the job for the betterment of the team – quickly !!

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    1. I think he’s trying his best and is very uncomfortable as a reliver, which is understandable. I think he is also thinking “WTF!!!! I was killing it here for this team as a starter and the guy who replaced me can’t hold my jock strap.” And how could you blame him? He was 10 times better than Walker. The fault is with the Phillies here. Turnbull is doing what they are asking him to do, but he should be in the rotation now – or somebody’s rotation.

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56. The Mets have yet again sent down their struggling prospect Brett Baty. At one point, he was a top 25 prospect with a career minor league OPS of .897. His ML OPS is .606. He’s definitely a change of scenery candidate for somebody.

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57. Really fascinating discussion https://x.com/MLBNetwork/status/1796238645558751594

    Phillies’ SP ave velo is 23rd in baseball and they have one of the best staffs in MLB. All of their SPs velos are down this year. They have focused on fastball movement over velo, tunneling and shape of off-speed over chasing velo.

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    1. It’s an interesting discussion, and outside of Wheeler who started his career having premium velocity, the other 4 pitchers were considered having above average offspeed pitches. Personally, the chase for velocity will always be there because that’s where the money is. Skenes went #1 because he can get it up 100. But if you don’t have the premium velocity, then you better have an outstanding off speed pitch and perhaps those type of pitchers will get drafted more in the 1st round. And if the analytics say that these type of pitchers get less injured, their value is only going to go up.

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    2. Four have middling velo, and always have had it-sans Walker 5/6 years ago…..Nola, Suarez, Turnbull and Walker…. Sanchez is a little better with increase velo and of course Wheeler is top of the bunch. So overall their starting pitchers’ velo will be low on the totem pole.

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58. v1 – All you have to do is look at Alvarado to see that. I know he’s not a starting pitcher but his fast ball is coming in as straight as an arrow. It was that pitch the other night that he blew the 2-1 lead with 2 outs.

    When Hinke, I believe, was asking for the Phillies to get Alvarado he showed footage of him pitching for the Rays and his fast ball had incredible movement. Not so much any more.

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59. Turnbull was signed to fill a role. That role was to be insurance in case a starting pitcher got hurt. The move paid dividends when he was available when Walker got hurt this spring.

    That’s his role. He knew it when he signed. If he doesn’t like it now, tough. Walker was always going to return to his rotation spot when healthy for at least two reasons that I can think of. One, players don’t lose their spot due to a short-term injury unless they get Wally Pipped. And, two, Turnbull ain’t no pitcher version of Lou Gehrig.

    Realistically, there is no way that Turnbull was going to get 30 starts with the Phillies. They were going to have to find a way to manage his innings in Triple-A so that he could possibly help if needed later in the season. Here’s why.

    Since a career high 148.1 innings in 2019, Turnbull has –

    2020 – 56.2 IP in 11 starts
    2021 – 50.0 IP in 9 starts
    2022 – DNP
    2023 – 57.0 IP combined between majors and minors in 15 starts (of which 31 were in 7 starts for DET)

    So, how many starts and innings could the Phillies realistically expect out of Turnbull as a full-time starter?

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    1. Turnbull was going to max out at around 125 innings, and that would be pushing it. So 20 starts x 6 innings = 120 innings was the best case scenario.

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       1. Maybe, maybe not quite so many. His effectiveness as the innings count grew would be in question. I’m not prepared to expect Turnbull to maintain the level of pitching he established up until Walker returned.

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          1. Just a FWIW comment, I thought the “Iron Bull” had a really nice effort yesterday against the “redbirds”! He looked really into it and his stuff was good, a look I hadn’t seen the last couple times out. I’m not saying he wasn’t effective those times. Maybe with the injury to Ranger, he was telegraphic, “Hey, I’m here”.

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          2. Orange …. not Iron @#$% auto correct!

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             1. Skeet…assume Phillies will let Ranger skip a start with the contusion , so Turnbull should get a start vs the Mets on June 8th in London, unless they decide to move all the pitchers up a day for the start, since they will have two days off-travel time….flying across the pond for that series. They may want Wheeler and Nola pitching in those nationally televised games there. Then they are off on traveling day Monday again and play the Sox in Boston on Tuesday the 11th.

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                1. Guess I’ll need to switch to “Bangers and Mash” and a “pint” for that game. I don’t think they drink tea for a baseball game, do they?

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                2. Romus, MLB really wants offense in the international games . . . so the Phils should start Walker for sure 😉

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60. https://x.com/PhilsTailgate/status/1797280273299607817

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    1. Not really too shocking, in fact that’s where the team weakness seems to lie. Some want a closer, but even if we had one, I’m not sure Thomson would use him that way. Rob is kind of set in his ways ……… “I did it my way!” 🎼🎵🎶

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       1. My guess it will be a right hand bat OFer…..right now Rojas and Pache are not able to cut the mustard at the plate. So they may have to move Marsh to CF and put the new OFer in LF if they cannot deal for a legit CFer….Nick C. is not going anywhere it appears.

          The other option I would explore….Turner to CF and Sosa stays at ss….send Rojas to LHV for a month or so and if Sosa gets exposed in the long run, maybe Rojas would have come around at the plate in Triple A ball and be ready to come back up..

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          1. Phillies are discussing Sosa playing some OF.

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          2. I don’t see a difference maker that they could get. Who is a realistic OF target? Maybe Rooker?

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             1. Not sure there is a difference maker out there that will not cost an arm and a leg……or one that is already on a contender who is not available anyways.

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          3. Zero chance Turner is moving to CF. Maybe a guy like Canha in Detroit would be an OF option as a RH LF option.

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             1. WSox Tommy Pham may be available…..does he move the needle enough to make a difference is the question.

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                1. Not big on Pham. He’s a bit of a knucklehead that I wouldn’t want to add to the clubhouse.

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                2. I would not worry about that with this group. The Phillies clubhouse is virtually all established veterans.

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                3. As chance would have it, Pham had a bit of a meltdown tonight after being thrown out at home plate. Made the late night sports news.

                   By the way, might need 2 outfielders now. Marsh looked like he tweaked it pretty bad. Dahl on the way?

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61. I think the perfect compliment to T. Walker’s repertoire would be the eephus pitch. That would give him 4 offerings that float down. 4th inning and the bp’s starting to stir.

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62. Who knows, maybe David Dahl is the difference maker for the OF? He’s had a couple decent MLB years previously — OPS+ in the range of 111 to 113 in part-time work. If he could do anything like that, it would be a huge boost.

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    1. In fact, he has a career OPS of .829 versus RHP (and only .665 vs LHP), so he is strictly a platoon bat. But that fits well with Pache, who has a career .704 OPS versus LHP (and, amazingly, a career OPS of .378 — three seventy-eight! — versus RHP). Pache should never bat against a RHP.

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63. Now we know why José Rodriguez was cut by the White Sox

    https://x.com/MattGelb/status/1797992859427279038

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    1. Funny right professional sports gets in bed with the sports betting apps advertising dollars then acts surprised when a player gets nailed for sports betting.

       Maybe that’s not fair and maybe they aren’t surprised but its likely a thing especially for all the prop bets that are offered.

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       1. I miss seeing Paige Spiranac on PointsBet…that commercial where she is dancing on the green of a golf course while being ogled by a male golfer is funny.

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          1. She has been replaced by cigarette golfer from England.

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64. Wife and I got to attend last nights game and it was an amazing treat to see Rhys get such a warm welcome home 🙂

    Its funny the things I find myself complaining about LOL. Crazy traffic getting in and out, long lines just to walk into CBP and so on. Then of course I catch myself and acknowledge this is what winning baseball looks like.

    We were in 123 which is pretty much directly behind HP. Rojas’ throw to nail Rhys at home was an absolute missile. It is really a shame he’s not a bit more proficient with the bat.

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    1. DMAR…I bet you, or your wife had a tear in your eye when Rhys got that standing ovation.

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65. Passan drops a few target names for Phils for OF https://x.com/ArcainiLuke/status/1798011392278298846

    Arozarena is having a terrible year, so you are banking on a bounce back. To make it work you have to send Castellanos back and pay down a lot of that contract. But also probably attach a legit prospect. I would be the Rays ask for Klassen and another in the top 10 (not Miller or Painter)

    Hard to see CHW trading Roberts unless it is a massive package. He is only 26 and hit 38 homers and stole 20 bases last year. Players like that are hard to find. He is entering his peak years too.

    Passan is plugged in so he doesn’t mention Kyle Tucker without some intel, but man is it hard to see why Houston would trade him. He is 27 and currently having an MVP type season. Already 3.3 WAR through 60 games. Unless they want to completely rebuild and start over. I would think the package would be so massive that this blog would melt down. Something like Painter, Miller, Klassen + 2 others in the top 30. Kyle Tucker is a sell the farm type acquisition.

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    1. I would think Arozarena would be the one they would go after…..will cost the less in return trade. A bit older at 29, and first arb year approaches next season with Scott Boras as his agent, so Rays are a reluctant payer, especially ilo of his current performance indicators. Rays have little leverage so two prospects will probably go in the trade…..a pitcher and a position player.

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       1. I wonder what kind of value Rojas would have in a return package? Younger, cheaper, longer control than Randy.

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          1. Everything you mentioned on Rojas is what the Rays value, probably more than they should, but really small market teams have to make do when it comes to budgets and finances. IMO, Rojas and and A ball pitcher or even a guy like McGarry would get it done. Not sure Thomson will want to let Rojas go however…he seems to have a strong affinity for him in CF.

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    2. Tucker was mentioned in the Spring as someone who the Phillies might pursue some time down the line. It has been long time since I read article but think it felt he is going to be too expensive for the Astros. Tucker is really good, so I am sure Passan has heard those rumors.

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66. Romus, Guru or Catch …………. when you guys go down for those Nick Castellanos Jersey’s could you pick one up for me. I don’t want to miss the extravaganza, but I’m overbooked. Hey , thanks alot, appreciate it. Skeet

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    1. In the last 15 days, Castellanos has an OPS of .809 so he has been slowly improving over the last few weeks and is hitting the ball harder more consistently.

       Hopefully is a sign of a thaw.

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67. Is it time for Kingery to replace Merrifield? He can probably play more positions.

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    1. Probably not, but I’ll give him credit – he’s hung in there and is trying to make himself a power hitter. His average is still meh (probably translates to like a .220 average in the majors), but he can field and run well and he’s hitting a lot of home runs now (at age 30).

       They are going to give Merrifield until at least the middle to end of July to snap out of it, I would think. After that, who knows?

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68. I understand the inclination to talk about trades and certainly the OF has been our weakest position group (I would’ve said the bench, but then the likes of Sosa, Clemens, and Dahl have changed the perspective). However, the team is playing so well and MLB has so few good teams this year, should we really decide on a particular position of need at this moment? This team has shown they can win many different ways — excellent starting pitching, putting up zeroes with a lights out bullpen, crushing the ball, clutch/timely hitting, and excellent all around team defense. Really can’t say at this point they have a glaring weakness. It has been the maligned OF leading the way the past two nights (Castellanos, Rojas, and now Dahl).

    Maybe we should take a best player available at the right price approach? If it’s a great bullpen arm like Helsley or Miller, fine. If it’s a bench piece with versatility to play OF/IF who can hit for some power, fine. Maybe there’s an injury and we need someone to fill in for a regular, then we go that direction.

    Frankly, I’ll take anything that adds one more excellent player to this team, I just don’t want them to waste all of their resources in the farm. I want them to sustain this success for several years. For once it seems like we have a glut of tantalizing prospects. Caba and Miller at short. Klassen, Adligheri, Painter, and Abel (him less so) in the rotation, Tait, Ricketts, and Marchan at catcher, guys like Wen Hui in the bullpen. It just seems like they should add the best piece they can at the most reasonable cost, rather than sinking every resource into someone like Tucker when they probably have enough as constructed to win a WS this year in a depleted MLB.

    Thoughts?

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69. Timing is everything with prospects. Abel was untouchable in most posters’ minds in the past few years and was very desirable by some teams.

    Now, we think of him as a trade chip and I imagine most teams don’t want him that much anymore because he isn’t developing as many hoped.

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70. I see Fan Side has a trade proposal between Astros and Phillies. Zack Presnell has the article. Tucker to Phillies. Miller, Rincone and McGowan to Astros. He said these are 2, 7 and 15 on prospect list. Tucker has gaudy numbers this season. Does anyone bite on this trade? Miller may be a star. Passan was mentioned in this as well so might be something to possibility.

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    1. I view Miller as nearly untouchable. Maybe he gets moved up to High-A and really struggles a lot, but I don’t see it. His counting stats and underlying numbers are great. This team has had such a rough time developing position players and has had much more success with pitchers over the most recent decade+. Think not just of guys who have made it on this team like Sanchez, Suarez, Nola, but also of the many who have been traded such as Eflin, Pivetta, JoJo Romero, Ben Lively, and similar ilk. Those guys aren’t stars but they can be good complementary pieces on a playoff-caliber team. I think they should be more willing to deal guys from the org strength of pitching and try to save what looks like their can’t-miss position players (Miller and to lesser extent Caba).

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    2. I highly doubt that’s enough to get Tucker. But if so, that’s a no brainer. Tucker is in his prime years and having an MVP caliber season. I would be shocked if no one beat that offer.

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       1. Would be shocked if the Astros traded Tucker at all. He has 1 more year of control after 2024 and the Astros aren’t blowing it up and rebuilding.

          I keep seeing this out there but can’t think of a reason the Astros would be sellers.

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          1. Yes, it doesn’t make sense that the Astros would trade the guy who, along with Alvarez, would likely be their best player over the next 5 years. It seems like he would be the center of a re-tooling effort, not the first guy to go in a complete rebuild.

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          2. I agree. Doesn’t seem like a real possibility

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    3. Don….are the Astros in a luxury-tax cap bind! I’m trying to see the Astros logic in the trade. I can see Miller as one of the cogs in the return, but not Rincon or McGowan…..more like Painter and either Caba or Tait.

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       1. Or is it Ricones vs Rincon……that would make a little more sense for OF prospect depth for them.

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          1. Romus. I do not remember from last Spring, but it was being tossed out there that Tucker was a good match for the Phillies. There must be some friction somewhere if his name keeps surfacing. I do not have any facts one way or the other. The question I had then and now does Tucker only play right field? How would that work with Nick?

             I am not aware of the top prospect list and who is where. The article simply proposed the Phillies giving up their 2, 7, and 15 top prospects. I am sure Miller is 2. He was talked about the most. I think I spelled what was listed correctly. They said Rincon is also a shortstop. Is that correct? Also stated McGowan is most MLB ready. Throws hard but kind of wild. That was the gist of the article. Do you guys who post articles just copy and paste them in to here? I am always afraid this may go crazy and lock me up or something. I have had lots of issues at times, so I try to keep things simply on my end. I know Hinkie used to post pics and v1 does articles, but I am always hesitant to try something. Thanks.

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             1. Well you are correct then…Rincon is a shortstop/middle infielder, so it must be him. With Rincon and McGowan seems the Astros are selling low on Tucker.

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71. Another one out there with Tucker being mentioned with Braves because of Acuna injury. Not sure why Tucker is being rumored. Said unlikely Braves can offer what they would accept. Article said Tucker is under control through next season and does not become a free agent till 2026.

    Here is a question I have on Kingery. I see he is doing well at least on the power aspect. Is he still as good defensively and runs as well as before? I only saw him play in one preseason game. It does look Phillies may have missed on the effectiveness of Merrifield. Seems Kingery would be a cheaper option than Merrifield. Although he may still be getting a good paycheck. One thing I thought about today I think Merrifield was near Kingery’s age when everything kind of came together for him. So, who knows.

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72. Matt Snyder has an article up now on possible All-Star starters. If he is correct there are 4 playing in the game today. Bohm and Harper for Phillies and Contreas and Yelich for Brewers. Saying Ohtani may nudge his way into the DH spot. LOL

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73. Great series by the Phillies. I think this is the best overall defense that I have seen the Phillies played at any time. Pitching was great. A little timely hitting as well. Good luck in London.

    Romus. Are you already in London? Nola just said he has never been out of U.S.

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    1. Don…..its been decades since I was in London…an American Werewolf was roaming around then, …cannot believe Nola has not been out of the states.  Its a wonder his wife has not got him to travel overseas somewhere. Women live to travel.

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       1. My wife went to England and Scotland a couple times and then cancelled once during Covid time. None for me.

          I hope the Phillies can keep it going. They are just doing all the things that winning teams do.

          Jim. Maybe he meant overseas. Could he have not gone on that trip last year possibly?

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          1. Don….Nola pitched there last August and won

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          2. I saw the interview, he specifically he hadn’t been out of the states.

             And, I checked his starts against Toronto, of the two on the road one was in Dunedin, FL during COVID and the other was last year in Toronto. He couldn’t travel to Canada when they started playing games there after COVID because Canadian regulations and he wasn’t vaccinated.

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    2. I guess his trip to Rogers Centre last season doesn’t count.

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74. 3 well played games against a quality opponent. Nice to beat a really good team after playing a slate of sub-std. teams. See how we fare after Picadilly.

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    1. It’s not the Phillies fault that the only teams in the NL that have winning records are the three division leaders and the Braves. At least they’re beating the teams they should (if you ignore the Colorado/SF trip) and not playing down to the level of the competition.

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       1. Oh, and after the London trip, they draw Boston in Boston. Maybe they catch a break, and the Sox are distracted by their next series which is against the Yankees.

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       2. Yep, you gotta play who is in front of you. I just thought we played good baseball.

          How is the shoulder by now? Are you back doing those one arm pushups yet?😉

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          1. Not yet. Possible rotator cuff tear. There goes my summer league pitching.

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75. Closing this thread. New one at – Phillies Discussion, 6/5/24 | Phuture Phillies

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