Full Squad Monday

This’ll be the current Phillies’ discussion.

In the last week, the Phillies lost McKinley Moore and Diego Castillo to waiver claims after the Phillies designated them for assignment.

But they also signed RHP Spencer Turnbull and 2B Whit Merrifield to major league contracts and RHP Ricardo Pinto, OF David Dahl, and RHP Austin Brice to minor league deals with invitations to spring training.


The full squad will gather this morning.  Barring any injuries or any seriously brilliant camp breakouts, the Phillies’ roster is likely set.

Assuming Brandon Marsh is ready for opening day, the only question will be the batting order for JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Marsh, Johan Rojas, Nick Castellanos.

The bench will likely be Whit Merrifield, Edmundo Sosa, Cristian Pache, Garrett Stubbs/Rafael Marchan.  This could be Marchan’s year.  No longer can we just say “he needs to play every day in Triple-A”.  He proved he can hit last season and continued to hit during the winter in Venezuela.  I read that Stubbs signed a split contract.  They both have options.  This might be the biggest battle and decision this spring.

The rotation is set with Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suarez, Christopher Sanchez.

The bullpen is also mostly set with Jose Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez, Gregory Soto, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, Matt Strahm, Brogdon/Marte/Rucker, Dylan Covey.   Hoffman and Covey have zero options remaining.  I don’t know who has the edge for the seventh slot in the bullpen, but it could be filled by one of the three pitchers listed.  None of the other pitchers on the 40-man roster have zero options.  Spencer Turnbull, Kolby Allard, Connor Brogdon, Yunior Marte, Nick Nelson, Kaleb Ort, and Michael Rucker have over a year of major league experience.  Max Castillo and Luis Ortiz have substantially less.  Michael Mercado has none.  Maybe Covey eventually loses his roster spot, but he was effective last season.  I think it unlikely the Phillies expose him to waivers before the season starts.


Minor league minicamp also starts tomorrow.  The participants will have the Complex in the afternoon when the major league camp disperses.  Attending both sessions makes for a long day.  I’ll probably just attend the minicamp after the first full squad workout.


Important Dates

  • January 15, 2024, 9 a.m. EST: Opening of the 2023-2024 international signing period
  • February 14, 2024: Voluntary reporting date for pitchers, catchers, and injured players
  • February 19, 2024: Voluntary reporting date for other players
  • February 19, 2024: Minor League Mini-Camp (invitation only)
  • February 23, 2024: Mandatory reporting date
  • February 29, 2024: Start of minor league spring training
  • March 1-10, 2024: Period for renewing contracts of unsigned players (pre-arb, the 0-3-year players) on 40-man rosters
  • March 20-21, 2024: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego in Seoul, South Korea
  • March 28, 2024: Opening day for all other teams, active rosters reduced to 26 players
  • May 4, 2024: Star of the Florida Complex League
  • June 8-9, 2024: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia in London
  • July 14-16, 2024: Amateur draft, Arlington, TX
  • July 25, 2024: End of the FCL regular season

Transactions

2/17/2024 – Phillies signed FA RHP Austin Brice to an MiLB contract w/invite to ST
2/17/2024 – Phillies signed FA RHP Ricardo Pinto to an MiLB contract w/invite to ST
2/16/2024 – Phillies signed FA OF David Dahl to an MiLB contract w/invite to ST
2/16/2024 – Phillies signed FA 2B Whit Merrifield
2/16/2024 – Baltimore claimed SS Diego Castillo off waivers from Phillies
2/16/2024 – New York Yankees claimed RHP McKinley Moore off waivers from Phillies
2/14/2024 – Phillies signed FA RHP Spencer Turnbull
2/13/2024 – Phillies designated RHP McKinley Moore for assignment

 

311 thoughts on “Full Squad Monday

  1. Why do you think Pache gets that last spot? I don’t think he will. Cave hits left handed and Wes Wilson has more positional versatility giving both of them a chance.

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    1. It’s funny, people here talk about why the Phillies don’t have any change of scenery players like Muncy or Justin Turner and we could have one: his name is Cristian Pache. He’s still only 25, a former top 25 prospect, and an elite defender. The Phillies need to give him a chance. If we’re talking about players being late bloomers, Pache could be one of them. And we want to replace Pache with a soon to be 30 year old Dahl who’s been a poor defender his entire career?

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      1. You’re obviously right that Pache is the better fielder. However, I think that they’ll prefer a left handed hitter for that spot as a possible late game pinch hitter for Rojas. I think Dahl was signed to compete with Cave for that spot but I doubt Dahl will accept assignment. I think Pache is redundant with Rojas if Rojas hits at all.

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        1. Dahl was signed to a minor league contract which includes a NRI to major league spring training. -he will be at LHV unless there are numerous injuries…….sometimes they work with an opt-out date attached to the contract if he is not on the big club at a certain date…..normally around end of May or first part of June.
          I do not think he will or can refuse the minor league assignment if he is not on the 25.

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          1. He’s opted out of minor league deals several years in a row so I’d be surprised if he doesn’t have one here. Some opt outs are April 1 while you’re right, some are May 1 or June 1. I’m sure we’ll find out what his deal is soon.

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        2. One of the new provisions in the latest CBA is uniform opt-out opportunities for Article XX(B) free agents on minor league deals. An Article XX(B) free agent is one with at least six years of service time….which Dahl has I think…. who finished the previous season on a major league roster or injured list. Any such player who signs a minor league deal more than ten days prior to Opening Day can opt out of that deal at three points if they haven’t been added to the 40-man roster:
          A. Five days before Opening Day,
          B. May 1
          C or June 1.
          Not sure which clause Dahl signed onto.

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  2. When David Dahl was a member of the Colorado Rockies in 2018 he homered against the Phillies in 4 straight games. He took Yacksel Rios, Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta, and Jake Arrieta deep – plus a bonus RBI triple against Tommy Hunter!
    Phillies don’t forgot players that do well against them and later pick them up, even at times when they can’t do anything against anyone else.

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    1. Denny…spot on.
      At one time Dahl was a top prospect…four years running top 100….but he seems to get injured quite a bit. The most games played in one season was 100 and that was once in his 6 year career. If he can stay healthy he could be a very good asset for the Phillies if they need added OF support.

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            1. Maybe end of season. Romus gives you his award. For top poster.. Also a Beautiful trophy, comes with his picture

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    2. It’s hard to believe he’s he’s just turning 30. He looked to be starting a solid career a few years back but injuries have really derailed him. Not sure if he’ll stick around in the minors so his goal is probably to beat out Cave, Pache, and Wilson for the 5th OF spot or to be released. Former 1st rd pick.

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  3. I saw a thread on the prior post about optimal lineup, here is my take…

    On last year’s team, Schwarber got 4.65 plate appearances per game played when he batted leadoff. Harper got 4.38 PA/G when he hit 3rd and 4.33 PA/G when he hit 4th. Over a 162 game schedule that means that the leadoff spot got 44 more PAs than the 3rd hole hitter and 52 more than the 4th hole hitter.

    Not only is Harper our best hitter he has the highest OB%. IMO the most logical lineup is one that gives your best hitter with the highest OB% the most PAs. Here is my desired lineup:
    1 Harper
    2 Turner
    3 Marsh (2nd highest OB%)
    4 Schwarber
    5 JT
    6 Stott
    7 Castellanos
    8 Bohm
    9 Rojas

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    1. Many years ago Sports Illustrated had an article, long before sophisticated statistics were available, suggesting an optimal way to construct a lineup based on the best hitters getting the most at bats. Back then I think they based it strictly on batting average, highest average first, second highest second, etc. Sounds a bit like what you suggest

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    2. I would rather have Turner leading off because of his SB capability. I have no issues with Harper leading off though I’m not sure I want him trying to steal too many bags, even with the new rules concerning blocking the base.

      It’s an interesting lineup that I wouldn’t mind seeing.

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      1. Turner didn’t attempt many steal attempts last year despite the rule change. One thought is that you don’t want him to get thrown out with Harper up or on deck. So if anything batting Trea behind Harper makes Trea more of a weapon on the base paths.

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        1. For this year, it’s not really new rules but more of an enforcement by the umpires to make sure that the fielders are not blocking the base with their legs. Presumably it will make it easier for the base stealer to avoid injuries sliding into a base.

          And Trea stunk pre-standing ovation. He had one of the worst OBP of his career, so he had reduced chances to steal bases.

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        2. except, perhaps, if the person in front of him singles or walks…. and is not a basestealing threat themself

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    3. Would take Marsh out of the 3 spot and move him to 8th.

      1 Harper
      2 Turner
      3 Schwarber
      4 JT
      5 Stott
      6 Castellanos
      7 Bohm
      8 Marsh (2nd highest OB%)
      9 Rojas

      Give me some OBP at the bottom of the line-up so that Harper gets some opportunities with RISP at the top.

      Might even flip Rojas and Bohm so that both Marsh and Bohm have the chance to be on base in front of Harper more often as the line-up turns over.

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  4. v1…Interesting thought. It has been mentioned many times that over the course of the year the higher up in the lineup the more ABs a player will get. I may be wrong, but did Rollins get over 600 at bats a couple of times from the leadoff spot. For some reason I just do not see Schwarber hitting 4th or 5th. It seems to mess with him mentally for some reason. I think he would be ideal there if he accepted it. I like the idea of Turner 2nd and Harper 3rd and then juggling the rest as they have good times and then drop off some. This lineup gives that flexibility to do that. I also know guys do not like being jacked around in the lineup. Produce might be the best solution to that.

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    1. Don…..spot on….you may have something there with Schwarber.
      Though there may be many circumstances effecting his metrics.
      Though hitting clean-up, overall, he has done well and at his bat.
      I assume, Topper should already know all of this.
      I decided to see his career marks at the different positions in the line-up
      Batting First: slash …..219/.328/.512
      Batting 3rd:……………….185/.371/.361
      Batting 4th.:………………..271/.371/.557
      Batting 5th:………………..199/.310/.448

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  5. Romus…If I just went on these numbers 4th looks good. Plus, take advantage of his HR ability. At IU he hit 2nd when I saw them play on tv. I know you can do this. Does Kyle have a lot more ABs at leadoff compared to the other 3 spots. I do not remember where he it for other teams. To me his two drawbacks are strikeouts and lack of base running. It is great when he hits that lead off HR and fires up the stadium. But even his walks which are many have a base-to-base result in many situations. Just seems to me that Topper likes him in that leadoff spot. Guess we will see.

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    1. Don..these are plate appearnce.
      First:……1609
      Second…533
      Third…….140
      Fourth……318
      Fifth………555
      Agree Ks are too high and he can be a slow mover on the base paths.

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      1. And the majority of the career lead-off has been his two years with the Phillies…..just with the Phillies he has almost 1400 PAs…..I have to guess over 90% have been as the lead-off hitter.
        Would that be a good guess?

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    2. I have calculated his total PAs wrong as batting first..
      With the Phillies he has lead-off the game 231 times
      The 1400 number is the number of times he batted first in any one inning.

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  6. V1 – interesting thought, but I would challenge this thinking in that putting Harper in the 2 or 3 hole, probably 2, would generate the most amount of runs per year. Harper at 1, likely gets him the most abs but that’s not the goal imo.

    My Thinking/logic is that, Harper is a power hitter. If he bats lead off every game, that is 162 plate appearances he can’t knock anyone in from his doubles & hrs. Putting him at #2 maxes his total abs out, while giving a potential to drive in more
    Runs. I would think that take those 162 at bats with no one one automatically, and 25% -33% to drive in a run. Putting Marsh in the 8th hole, with his OBP theoretically increases those odds as well. Put schwarber at 3 increases the odds of putting up crooked numbers imo, depending on the outs happen.

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    1. Due to the current MLB rule of the DH the teams that have a strong bottom of the lineup shouldn’t need worry about the lead off spot except for the 1st inning. If you have fast and smart runners that can hit .270+ in the 8 & 9 holes you should have little worries about this issue.

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    2. Home runs per PA last year:

      Kyle Schwarber 6.50%
      Nick Castellanos 4.30%
      Bryce Harper 3.90%
      Trea Turner 3.80%
      J.T. Realmuto 3.70%
      Alec Bohm 3.30%
      League Average 3.20%
      Brandon Marsh 2.50%
      Bryson Stott 2.30%

      IMO “Harper will hit a home run” is not a good reason to not bat him leadoff and get him 50+ more PAs. He is much more than a home run hitter.

      One other thought…if you are a pitcher facing Rojas, whom would you be more scared to face as the next batter? Harper or Schwarber? Putting Harper leadoff should get Rojas more fastballs.

      That said, I could be talked into hitting Harper 2nd. But then the problem is that you can’t split up the lefties well unless you move up JT or Bohm or Castellanos, whom imo are worse hitters than Stott, Marsh and Scwharber.

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      1. All fair points. I want to clear up, Harper is a power hitter, not just a hr hitter. He hits doubles, hrs, and sac flys. Obviously a great player. I think 2 or 3 is perfect for him. To your point, I’d push him to 2 to get more at bats, but back from 1 to get more chances with runners on base. Rojas getting more fastballs is a fair point, but schwarber is no slouch either. The lineup should be good regardless.

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  7. Tac…I think a lot of teams agree with you. Many like their best hitter batting 2nd. Do you think Turner would be a good leadoff and then follow with Harper, Schwarber, NC or JT? The one thing that Topper has with this Phillies team is it does have lots of flexibility. Stott can bat in many spots. Bohm is similar. For me Marsh and Rojas are lower in my estimation in the order.

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    1. Im not fallible, but not too many holes in this lineup. Ideally Id go Stott lead off. I thought he was lead off material back in the WS run. Pesky hitter, sees a lot of pitches, fouls them off. Has one of the better eyes o the team imo.

      Stott
      Turner
      Harper
      Schwarber
      Bohm
      Castellanos
      Muto
      Marsh
      Merrifield/Rojas

      I will say I liked Stott, Bohm, and Marsh in a row. The daycare seemed to feed off each other in the playoffs. I am excited to see Rojas, and his improvement potential. If not, merrifield is a nice fallback. Bench feels good to me with Merrifield, Sosa, and Wilson… Im still a big Pache fan. If he doesn’t get hurt last year, Im not sure you see Rojas in the majors. He was racking it for a decent stretch. Good problem to have, but not sure how this all shakes out with the recent signings.

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  8. I agree with Stott for same reasons. But I still think for some reason Topper leaves Schwarber. I like your lineup. I also think Topper could flip 4-7 guys depending on who is hot, opposing pitcher. I would leave 8-9 as you have them. Maybe Merrifield hits really well and he might move up at times. But I like this lineup other than too many Ks in it.

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  9. A dissection of our LU

    PLAYER AB BB K PA BB RATE K RATE
    Kyle 585 126 215 711 17.72% 30.24%
    Turner 639 45 150 684 6.58% 21.93%
    Harper 457 80 119 537 14.90% 22.16%
    Bohm 558 42 94 600 7.00% 15.67%
    JT 489 35 138 524 6.68% 26.34%
    Stott 585 39 100 624 6.25% 16.03%
    Nick 626 36 185 662 5.44% 27.95%
    Marsh 404 59 144 463 12.74% 31.10%
    Rojas 149 5 42 154 3.25% 27.27%
    TEAM 4492 467 1187 4959 9.42% 23.94%

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    1. Unless one of these guys is going to materially change who they are as a hitter other than Harper there aren’t many good options to lead off.

      Kyles BB rate of almost 18% is great but not with a 30% K Rate

      A month back I though Marsh might be the best option with his OBP but looking at it this way same boat as Kyle too high of a K Rate. I also think he was pitched around a bunch because of who was hitting behind him.

      I’m not sure how many times Kyle came to bat with runners on base. I do subscribe to the theory that you really only truly Lead Off once a game.

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  10. Romus…good point on Merrifield. Plus, he is a good base runner. Ideally you would like someone with a high OBP and good base running skills. Probably only Turner, Stott and Merrifield fit there. Then you need to find a position for Merrifield.

    dmar…nice list. Are those the stats for last season? There is no doubt that the K rate is just pretty high for many guys. Good point on only leading off once for sure. Just going off the past I think Kyle probably stays in that spot. We will just have to wait and see.

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  11. My issue with the Merrifield sign is not that he isn’t a decent enough super sub. Its simply where does he play?

    And for $8 million bucks how many PAs are you hoping to get him?

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    1. He could get a lot of ab or little depends, On Marsh, if he is hitting, injuries, He can play decent left or right, some infield, not a bad insurance policy, I would not count on pache to hit, Cave is okay, Wilson is a unkown, so if your going for a championship, this is a good sub to have,

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    2. Jake Cave and Josh Harrison combined last year got 317 plate appearances in 2023. With Merrifield’s ability to play OF and 2b (and maybe 3b) he will absorb most of those at-bats plus a few other random ones that include Castro, Hall, etc.

      They should be easily able to get him around 400 PA’s even without any significant injuries to the everyday line-up. But mostly, he’s an insurance policy to protect against any significant loss in the line-up for an extended period.

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      1. I’ll take Whit Merrifield replacing the 317 plate appearances of Cave and Harrison this year in second. That’s a definite team improvement.

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    3. When they signed him I was, at first, a little down on it because his overall season last year wasn’t that great. However, a few things won me over. First, last year, he was pretty darn good until August when it appeared he may have just played too many games and broke down. Second, he’s versatile – you can put him in a lot of roles. Third, he’s a great baserunner so you can insert him into a game even when he doesn’t start. Fourth, he can start against tough lefties and will start to give other players a rest. Fifth, if a guy gets injured, he’s a great plug-and-play alternative. Sixth, he’s supposed to be a great leader and a good teammate. For a one year deal? Yeah, this makes sense.

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  12. Gelb wrote an Athletic article this morning that Merrifield was told team would try and get him a start every 2 to 3 days. He was keenly aware that Phillies really didn’t have a full time job but wanted to go to Phils due to CBP fan excitement and also recognizes he is “aging” in baseball terms. He also said that team is known for its good vibes and he wants to WIN. Every 2 to 3 days would imply maybe 300 plate appearances ? I suspect he will pinch run and pinch hit almost daily.

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    1. If he plays well, he will get more ABs than that because if someone goes down with an injury or injuries, he’ll get first dibs on that playing time too. I’m thinking 350-450 ABs, including pinch hitting appearances.

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      1. Edmundo Sosa will lose a bunch of playing time/ABs due to the Merrifield signing.

        Okay, so we have the 9 regular position players, Merrifield, Stubbs/back-up catcher, and then competition for the last two with Sosa, Wilson, Dahl, Pache and Cave, right?

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    2. I guess it’s doable. He could get 2 starts in the OF per week or 1 OF/1 2B.

      But the reality is, if he’s just the backup, he’s not moving the needle that much. I would doubt he gets even 1 War doing that, even with 300 ABs. He’s a capable backup if somebody goes down which I guess is what the Phillies are really paying for.

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      1. If it were just subbing in, I think 300 ABs would be right on the nose, but I’ll bet he’ll get another 15-30 starts for injured guys that will give him extra ABs.

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  13. RU…think those are good points. I have always heard the MLB guys speak highly of him. Sounds like maybe 300 ABs might be a good estimate. No one knows how the season plays out. Does sound like he wants to be on a team that has a chance to win. That is always a good thing.

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  14. Catch…I wondered with the signing who would be most affected of the bench guys since Merrifield plays both outfield and infield spots. Just looking at your list of guys you are probably correct on Sosa. Besides Cave and Stubbs are any of the others left-handed hitters. I forget on Wilson and Dahl. Appears Phillies were looking to add more flexibility with signing.

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  15. I’m not huge analytics , overstated in many walks of life, but for arguments sake … is there a stat that looks at the median number of total bases a lineup has, and build out the batting order accordingly? It maybe to random, but if a team could look at what innings end with what #batting order.. couldn’t try to put their better hitters there. To me, high OBP going in front of your bobbers seems like the way to go. About increasing the odds of putting up crooked numbers. Solo hrs are nice but 3 run hrs sure are a back breaker in the playoffs. Takes a fair amount of pressure off imo as well

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    1. Not exactly sure what you are getting at, but wOBA (weighted On Base Average) is a good stat imo. This takes into account the reality that not all base hits are the same. Raw OB% treats a double the same as a walk. So wOBA corrects for that. Here are the wOBA leaders for Phillies last year:

      Bryce Harper 0.384
      Brandon Marsh 0.358
      Kyle Schwarber 0.35
      Johan Rojas 0.335
      Nick Castellanos 0.335
      Trea Turner 0.333
      Alec Bohm 0.329
      J.T. Realmuto 0.324
      Bryson Stott 0.323

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  16. I’ll stop spamming but I found some interesting stats. ATL, one of the best offensives of all time last year l per stats, AVG 5.84 runs p/g, PHI 4.91 r/g. What id hone in on is ATL got 151 more runs out of basically the same # of at bats 5597 vs 5541. Why are there at bats producing almost 19% more runs? I guess you can look at the HR differences for ATL, they hit 81 more hrs (absurd) so let’s compare TEX instead. Same deal, roughly 50 more at bats for the year but a 5.4 r/g. Hits are 1470 vs 1417, maybe 50 more xtra base bits, resulted in close to 90 more runs for the year.

    Outside the traditional thinking but what if you spaced out your bigger bats – 2B & HR hitters

    Stott
    Turner
    Harper

    Marsh
    Bohm
    Schwarber

    Muto
    Rojas/merrifield
    Castellanos

    Something to chew on in the world of analytics. Essential space put your power hitters 1 every 3 batters (maybe swap Turner Harper to get Harper more at bats) vs more traditionally bunching them in the middle. Thoughts? Okay, roast me

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    1. Thinking you need to include one of the biggest reasons.

      Texas had a team .OBP of. 337 with 599 walks and 1416 strikeouts
      Phillies were .327 OBP with 539 walks and 1481 strikeouts.
      Atlanta was .344 with 538 walks and 1289 k’s

      Texas and Atlanta had more baserunners and put more balls in play. Not surprising that would result in additional runs.

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      1. Fair assessment – but I did notice Phil’s SO, BB were pretty similar as well. It has to be small ball execution, moving those base runners along during the year. ATL SO were near tops in the league, but when you connect for 90+ hrs, that’s going to eat up most of that 150+ run differential TEX had 50+ xtra base hits + contact hitters. I think the Phillies are closer to top offenses this year with a full year or Harper, a more comfortable Turner, improvements from Stott, Bohm, & Marsh. Will see on Castellanos, which one shows up. Schwarber will be schwarber, same with Realmuto

        Liked by 1 person

        1. My error – my eyes failed me on ATL’s SO totals. That’s explains it more. That was a crazy year for them … “to bad” their playoff schedule included the Phillies 🙂

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    1. This shows you what a great hitting coach Kevin Long is. It’s not a coincidence that the biggest improvements came from open-minded younger players who he coached. Brandon Marsh’s improvement was staggering and super impressive.

      Liked by 1 person

    1. If true, I’m stunned. But that goes to show that some new Asian players value location (i.e. not Philadelphia it seems) over money, although $325M is still a crazy amount.

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      1. I think it was partly location, but I think the biggest reason was Ohtani. They want to play together. And the Dodgers are going to keep benefitting from that aspect for a while it seems like. They may have first dibs on all Japanese prospects for the foreseeable future.

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  17. If that is true – the only valuable afterglow is that the Phillies are – indeed – a player in the Japanese market. I fully expect that no matter how much money they would have offered the player was going to Ohtani and the Japanese Dodgers. However – the Phillies may have set themselves up to pay Roki Sasaki as much or more than Yamamota – and the rest of the teams playing at that level know it. So does Sasaki. Who is to say that DD knew long before he was going to the Dodgers but they sent a big offer so that Sasaki would hear about it ? Is every Japanese player going to sign with the Dodgers ? Maybe – or maybe not $$$$ ? But at least they made a statement.

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    1. Until I see otherwise, I assume that every big Japanese free agent is going to sign with one of the following teams: Dodgers, Yankees, Mariners (they are Ichiro’s team and well-known in Japan), Angels, Giants, Yankees, Mets or Red Sox – I believe these are viewed as the high profile teams in Japan and the ones that the elite Japanese players want to sign with. Secondary Japanese players who are not courted by one of these teams may sign elsewhere. Maybe the Phillies will break through – but the odds are against it right now.

      Liked by 1 person

  18. Something fun for us to talk about is what lineup will the Phils run out in the new Prospect game on March 16. Will they include older guys or just stick to mostly A ball guys? An OF of Crawford, Boyd and Rincones (and Walton) with Miller, Rincon (and Saltibon) Bergolla and who at 1b?
    Abel can start with lots of one inning guys after (it’s a 7 inning game I think).

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  19. At some point all the big market teams with $$ will have spent it on the Japanese players (and others) and there will be no other place to go due to the hefty penalties but Philly ? Think about it – even now, Boston, Yankees, Dodgers, even Cubbies are cashed out – most likely on the Japanese players. Who is left ? Angels ? Texas lost their tv money ? Detroit ? Giants ?? That is a question…..not a statement…..Hinkie should like this ????

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    1. MLB……may have to do something with the Asian market free agents.
      To make it equitable for every team.
      It is one thing for a player who has already ‘paid his dues’ in the major legues and goes free agency after his 6th year……but free agents from non-MLB leagues should have some restritctions.
      Perhaps a lottery of sorts…if a team like the Pirates win the rights to Yamamoto…and cannot afford his asking price….next team down, until one that can.

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      1. Romus – I agree, something should be done … but AFTER the Phillies sign Sasaki 😂

        It’s out of hand, Japan is basically a feeder league for LAD at this point, with LAA,NYY, & BOS as the backups

        Again, let PHI sign Sasaki, then fix it. I’d imagine these players may not come over if they can’t truly pick where they want to go in combination with an outrageous salary

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    1. One of the things I’m enjoying most about Rojas (aside from his ridiculous fielding and athletic abilities) is what appears to be an excellent work ethic, humility and desire to improve. Listen, all the Rojas needs to be a first division regular and borderline star is to be average on offense, which he’s pretty close to now, his postseason struggles notwithstanding. That recipe has made Kevin Kiermaier 35 WAR player in his career (and he could easily retire a 45 WAR player – pretty staggering) and I think Rojas may have more potential than Kiermaier in all facets of the game.

      Kudos to the Phillies for slowly addressing virtually all of their defensive shortcomings. This team used to be pretty bad on defense in 2022, but in 2024 the only positions where they will likely be below average is third (yes, Bohm is below average notwithstanding his improvements) and right. And at many positions they should be well above average or elite in fielding (catcher [maybe], first (Harper is already good there), second, center [elite], and left). On the whole, however, I expect they will be a well above average fielding team and that will equate to more wins – perhaps another 2-4 – it’s significant.

      The pitching staff thanks you Dave Dombrowski.

      Like

    2. Yes Indeed Could not believe the Struggle he had to get a bunt down. How do these Guys through the minor leagues like this? He is a Speed Demon, should it not be part of His”player Development” Folder from very early on. I know that a Player does not “get off the Island”by Walking or bunting you have to Hit your way Off(Or Pitch)

      Like

      1. The reason that it is hard to get a bunt down at the MLB level is because the pitchers are so elite. The difference between MLB pitchers and AAA pitchers is the equivalent to the difference between high school and college pitchers. The speed and movement and command is massively better at the MLB level. This isn’t like getting the bunt down in your backyard. It is really hard to do.

        Like

        1. Yes. And Rojas never faced AAA pitching. He was promoted from AA. Rojas can bunt. I’ve seen him bunt in Clearwater. And, if he couldn’t bunt, he would not have been tasked by the Phillies with sacrificing. He laid down 6 sac bunts in 59 games while the rest of the team had just 7 during the whole season. Only one other player had more than one.

          Liked by 1 person

          1. Yes. Anyone who thinks bunting against MLB pitching is easy probably never played above high school baseball. It’s insane how good MLB pitchers are.

            Like

            1. Right…and MLB hitters only had a .248 batting average and strike out 23% of their PAs, so the point is that it is really hard to find the barrel against elite pitchers even for a bunt.

              Like

            2. Batting average and strikeouts are pretty irrelevant points to getting a bunt down. No one is saying it is easy…but the level of pitching is a non-sensical comment. Only trumped by talking further about college and high school.

              Of course professional pitchers are great…so are professional hitters. Getting a bunt down is not a difficult task…it goes unpracticed which is why they often fail or look folish when needing to do so.

              Like

            3. To put that in perspective, if the MLB strikeout rate is 23% that means the when swinging fully, MLB players put the ball in play 77% of the time. Now to be fair it is lower than 78% as some of those would be bunts and also some would be foul ball outs. But think about that 50% fair bunt rate. That is lower than fully swinging. So yes, bunting against MLB pitchers is very hard. In your backyard or against bad pitchers it is relatively easy. But against MLB stuff it is still very hard.

              Like

            4. Not practiced. And please stop with the red herring comparisons. I’m not a MLB hitter. But you’re getting better with stat comparison. 50% in play is a better compare than batting average

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            5. I know math is hard but 50% in play for bunts is lower than for swings. 23% k rate means 77% in play. True that some of that 77% are foul ball outs but still way above bunts in play.

              Like

  20. there is an interesting article in the Inquirer today about Nick Podkul. Podkul was hit by a pitch last year and it screwed up his face (he needed reconstructive surgery), his vision and the remainder of his season. It remains to be seen whether he’s 100 percent and, if so, if he can still dig in at the plate and hit without the incident affecting him. He’s 27 so he’s still at the very outer range of prospect age.

    What’s interesting about Podkul, and something that was never mentioned on here, most likely because he’s a bit older and didn’t have an enormous number of at bats, is that he was having a phenomenal season – with a combined OPS between AA and AAA near 1.000 after being a Mendoza-line hitter in the Toronto system. But last year, Podkul hit for power, he didn’t strike out a crazy amount, he hit for average and he walked a LOT – a combination of attributes that can often mean the player has a big league future.

    If he can recover from his serious incident, he could surprise some people and perhaps even compel a promotion. Good luck to him.

    Liked by 1 person

  21. One obstacle the team needs to overcome….is their slow starts thru Memorial Day, for whatever reasons there were..
    Last season 25-30, and in 2022 it was 21-29.
    They did improve from 2022 last season by a few more games,
    but they need to come out of the gates ready to go.
    A guy like Turner could help that cause and a fully healthy Harper.

    Like

    1. The Schedule is somewhat favorable for them to go better than 500. They start the season at home with the Braves.

      They will play in the first Month 15 Home 15 Away

      3-Braves
      3-Nats
      7-Reds
      4-Pirates
      3-Cards
      3-Pads
      3-Rockies
      3-Angels

      How would 18-12 Sound

      Like

      1. DMAR…every year when the Eagles schedule came out, I would right away start projecting wins and losses…..and virtually every year got multiple games wrong.
        Looking above….yuo see the Nats, Reds , Pirates, Rockies and Angls -total of 20 games- and think great!
        Should be 15/17 wins…….not going to do that.
        Been burned too many times in the past.

        Liked by 1 person

    2. Here is the Thing that I know You guys who Dwell here already Know. But there seems to be a “DNA” with Certain Players Getting off to slow starts Hitting Wise, Clearly Schwarber Does not “Hit” April &May and the Famous JUNE Kick it in Gear. What’s is going to Change that? Harper we Know First 2 Years, slow April &May. (last Year obviously n/a. What is going to change that”DNA” so to speak? Turner, ok only 1 Year, but but he has a History of Not getting off to good Starts. Not many people pay attention to April and May stats, even as a Player progresses through the Minor Leagues. There are some players who have Fast Starts in 1 st half and tremendous 2nd Halfs. And Vice Versa. Some players are consistent throughout the year. No one can Sustain for 6 Months there has to be Slumps along the way. The best shorten the Slumps to get on track. Point being Who in the Phillies lineup can you count on to get off to Good Start? Bohm Stott and Marsh are still in the learning Curve. Realmuto? Castellanos? Rojas? How does He Start the Season? How did he do do in the minor leagues;No one is paying attention in April & May.

      Like

  22. Great point Catch……….he was having a really good year. I saw him at Reading, I thought he was impressive. Too bad what he’s going thru, hope he bounces back!

    Like

  23. Didn’t know that Stubbs and Marchan both had 1 option left. So that makes the battle for b/u catcher a race btwn both

    Like

  24. Romus…Would a 29-21 start in the first 50 games be acceptable for you? That would project to something in the 90+ win range. I would take that.

    Like

  25. Romus…I am thinking the longer that Snell, Montgomery, Bellinger remain on the market maybe one of them might slip to the Phillies. Any thoughts? Maybe a large, short term or pillow deal.

    Like

    1. Snell would look good…maybe though only a one year deal.
      I do believe if he or the others are unsigned come June 15……a team can sign them without a QO penalty involved to that team.
      Unless the latest CBA changed things up on that..

      Like

  26. For me the only valuable one of the 3 big FA left is Montgomery. The other two require significant future damaging compensation and both players have big warts. Snell is very inconsistent and can rarely get past the 5th inning; Bellinger still has hard hit deficiencies and who really knows if he recovered “completely” from that 3 year mess caused by injuries. I suspect the asking price on all of them is very high and nobody wants to pay it – given their perceived issues. Monty wanted to get paid like Nola and teams don’t see them as the same pitcher. To the Phillies, Monty would be nice but they would then have 3 lefties in the rotation (assuming they traded Walker) and that isn’t good against the RH batting Braves. Ranger, Sanchez, Monty and the 2 aces. Although – one could also argue then to put Ranger back in the bullpen !!! But that’s not a smart move for Ranger’s and the team’s sake.

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  27. RU…I did see that Phillies were interest in one- or two-year deal with Montgomery but he wants longer deal. That seems less likely each day he remains unsigned. Saw Rangers are not as likely as some originally thought.

    Like

  28. There is a video of Kerkering’s floating out there, from his recent workout, probably today. Jim would know … either way .. he looks damn impressive already. There is a lot of movement on this pitches. What a find.

    Like

    1. At 23 throwing that hard I hope he is pacing himself. Its a long season….

      I worry about these youngsters in ST trying to overly impress. If an Ulnar is gonna tear its gonna tear but at least try and get half a regular season out of it.

      Like

  29. I grow more intrigued by the day with bringing in Trevor Bauer.

    Once upon a time this town absorbed Michael Vick and I’m a second chances (not 3rd or 4th) kind of person.

    Like

    1. I’m not against second chances, I’m against Trevor Bauer. No thanks – he’s a clubhouse cancer.

      Like

  30. I just saw a USA article about the new uniforms. Some like them and some do not. Hoffman said they do not look like a $450 uniform. Lots of players think they are cheap looking. Has anyone seen them in person.?

    Like

  31. I am a pass on Bauer as well. I was thinking earlier that Snell has some like traits. He is a little different as well. I had forgot the QOs on Snell and Bellinger.

    Like

    1. I am a hard pass on Bauer. Could care less what his pitches look like. The strength of this team is the clubhouse. One bad apple can ruin the bunch. Hard pass.

      Like

  32. If I had to guess – DD would ask Harper, Turner, and Schwarber, among others – what would they think of Bauer as a teammate. I can imagine a resounding negative response – and that’s unusual because I think they would accept any teammate who they thought could help them win. I also suspect management is leary of messing with the team’s mojo – players want to come to Philly because of the positive team spirit. Why risk adding an unknown and dangerous ingredient ?? Let Bauer pitch for the Motel 6 Nine or something.

    Like

    1. LOL no takers on Bauer and I understand. I was in that camp not too long ago.

      I keep hearing this chemistry thing and a number of you don’t wish to disrupt that. We’ll see but this chemistry thing seems like its getting overplayed.

      Like I was saying last August and September….Yay Chemistry! It didn’t amount to a WS. It didn’t amount to us even getting there.

      Like

  33. I am probably looking thru my Philly colored glasses, but my prediction through 6/3 is:
    Phillies 36-24
    Braves 34-25

    Like

  34. Rocco…that could be something Braves may be willing to do.
    Denny…I proposed 29-21 for Phillies through 50. So, we are close if either is near correct. I do agree that Phillies need to avoid that slow start Romus mentioned. No idea how Braves will do.

    Like

  35. I’ve been preaching Bauer…. He doesn’t have a QO attached, he had a great year in Japan, his velocity went up. The guy is weird-ish, but I believe he has learned. Take out his weirdness, and you will find a huge baseball nerd in there too. The guy loves the game, knows pitching better than most
    Pitching coaches. His routines have reinvented how pitcher prepare.

    He can bridge the gap between Painter & Abel on a 1 or 2 year deal. He is ideal in a lot of ways…. Minus the perceived clubhouse cancer. Mookie Betts hyped him up as well if it’s worth anything. The guy was setup and railroaded by a female predator. Gotta know the whole story. Other than that…. He’s a decent gamble to get to the WS & win it. Perfect angle vs the Dodgers.

    Sign him, if he is such a clubhouse cancer, book him at different hotels, private
    Planes, and only let him in the clubhouse on days he pitches. Schedule his practice away from the team.

    His talent is worth the gamble imo. If he’s going to be good… (behavior) it’s this year. Sign him, 1 yr.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I agree he’s a very good pitcher but that’s not the whole story – I don’t want him on a team with such good chemistry – but if the team’s top players, including the pitchers who would have to spend a lot of time with him, wanted him, I’d consider it on a one year. But be careful what you ask for.

      Like

    2. Bauer absolutely has not learned. He literally cannot stop self-sabotaging. If he would just shut up (or at least not PUBLICIZE his rants) and pitch, someone would take a shot on him. But he won’t.

      He’s talented, but not so much so that he’s worth the headache he has proven he will continue to be

      Like

      1. DK:
        People may be selling Spencer Turnbull short….he could surprise.
        Two years after TJ is something many pitchers in the past have come on stronger than their first year back from the surgery.
        I aminterested to see how he does these next few weeks.
        And the talk of Trevor Bauer may just subside..

        Like

        1. I am certainly a fan of the Turnbull signing. Low risk high reward move, and this FO has hit on a surprisingly high number of pitchers.

          Really, for as quiet as the offseason has been for the Phils, they did pretty much everything I wanted them to do. They went hard after Yamamoto, they filled Nola’s spot at the top of the rotation (with Nola), and they’ve brought in some pitching depth.

          Rather than consider Bauer, the team seems much better off continuing to monitor the big name FAs that still haven’t signed and see if they become agreeable to short-term deals.

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            1. Don’t know if I will be able to tolerate watching Clevinger on the mound, gives me anxiety with his quirks.

              Like

            2. I used to be a power pitcher early in my non-professional career, when I reached late 20’s I became “quirky” but not like him. I was only trying to distract enough to get the batter out; i.e., Luis Tiant, Gaylord Perry, Ted Abernathy, Fernando, Jim Bunning, crossfire/submarine/knuckle/scuffing, etc. When I see pitchers like Clevinger, I feel that an MLB pitcher should not need it.

              Like

      1. Made my morning Rocco. Just read Steve Potter’s Blog and my balloon was pumped full, and now you are trying to deflate it. PhilliesStrong!

        Like

        1. Denny Romus wanted me to start a discussion, he had a rough night at Cheer leaders and is tired, Jim is sick and Romus didnt write a column,

          Liked by 1 person

  36. Looks like the Mets are
    Going to have to dip in the FA Starter pool. Senga is to
    Start the year on the DL – Bauer? Or does this help them go for Snell or Montgomery. Could get interesting.

    Like

      1. They just keep coming and coming. Look at their last Draft if I recall The Marlins Took 2 Pitchers very highly touted. It just takes 3-4 years (H.S/College)or so to get To the Show, but the pipeline is prioritized.

        Like

        1. The Marlins only have 1 player in the Pipeline top 100:

          #57 Noble Meyer – pitcher but he’s in A ball.

          However, the Marlins should be getting back Max Meyer, a highly touted pitcher who should be fully recovered from TJ this season.

          The Marlins’ system is not great right now. The Phillies have 4 players in the top 100.

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  37. Kevin Gowdy pitched an inning for the Dodgers in their opening ST game vs Padres. Pitched the 7th, gave up a lead off single, got a DP, gave up a single and then struck out the last batter.

    Like

  38. I will go a quiz on baseball for todays discussion, 1. Who developed the rules of baseball. Was it Johnny Carson, Joy Cartwright or Hoss Cartwright? 2 The women’s team was started by what college? Villanova, Yassar. Or Yale. 3. First game of baseball was played by a Cricket team and The Knickerbocker, true or false. Bonus Question is how many hair plugs did Romus get?

    Like

        1. rocco…back in the mid-80s I was in the US military in the UK….took my squadron’s team to RAF Brize Norton and played the Brits.
          In a friendly of sorts….with BBQ dogs/burgers et al.
          One game of baseball and one game of cricket,
          ….they beat us in both, and really whooped us pretty bad in cricket, naturally. We got on the bus home with tails bewteen our legs.

          Liked by 1 person

    1. 1. Alexzander Joy Cartwright and a committee of players from the Knockerbocker Athletic Club.
      2. The Vassar Resolutes
      3. The first officially recorded baseball game in U.S. history took place on June 19, 1846, in Hoboken, New Jersey. The contest was between the “New York Nine” and the “Knickerbockers,” with the New York Nine emerging victorious, winning 23–1 in just four innings. The rules back then were that a game was played until a team reached 21 aces (runs). I think the New York Nine was the name of the team CDLC played for when he was spotted by one of our scouts after the 2017 draft.
      4. Zero?

      Like

  39. Romus…you have all the answers. Even to the tough ones from Rocco. LOL
    I am going with 12 for Romus on the hair plugs.

    Like

  40. Seeing on tv that the Phillies vs Blue Jays is on tomorrow at 1 on MLBN. You guys probably know that but nice for me here in Indiana to get to see Phillies on tv. Just an FYI if anyone not in Clearwater was unaware.

    Like

    1. Yeah I try to sync up the Phillies radio broadcast with the Blue Jay’s TV broadcast. A little tricky but I did it for the playoffs last year and it was great.

      Like

  41. Denny…you are much more talented than I am. I am good at turning on the tv. I am a big IU fan and the IU women beat Iowa and Caitlin Clark last night. No view for me. Game was on Peacock. LOL

    Like

  42. Rocco…I have trouble syncing the radio in my truck. LOL
    Where is Captain Romus? It is almost Play Ball time today.
    After this Winter some baseball sounds pretty good.

    Like

  43. Looks like the Phillies got a TD and FG in the 5th. That is a good start.
    Just heard the announcers mention that no weightlifting till late 70s. I remember that. But I was a farm kid so pretty strong physically at the time.

    Like

    1. Like you, players had off season jobs that were probably requiring muscle. After the big contracts came out in the late 70’s, no one needed to work in the off season. They starting weight training.

      I remember Pete Rose coming to ST wearing a big black plastic bag to lose weight.

      Like

        1. Great story here:
          Chris Short “earned the nickname “Styles” from teammates in light of his wardrobe. His luggage on road trips often consisted of a brown bag with an extra shirt, a hairbrush, and a toothbrush. Former Phillies center fielder and broadcaster Richie Ashburn recalled that Short would wash his underwear every night and hang it out to dry”.

          Like

  44. Good article by Gelb on JT’s hitting struggles and his work this offseason. Went to Phillies biomechanics hitting lab this winter. KLong focused on less movement in the swing. Thinks it will cut down on his K’s which were mostly on inside pitches.

    https://theathletic.com/5287706/2024/02/21/jt-realmuto-phillies-hitting-lab/?source=user_shared_article How to fix a hole in your swing: Phillies’ J.T. Realmuto started by visiting the hitting lab

    Like

    1. v1…good point. In many cases the less movement will have improved results. Just fewer things that can go wrong. It did seem to me that JT also struck out a lot of high pitches. Maybe my memory is just fading.

      Like

  45. Denny…after tearing the rotator cuff in my shoulder before going to South Alabama I always had off season jobs. No more legitimate baseball. LOL.
    But you are right. I remember when it was big to be the first $100.000 player. I am old.
    Game today was 14-12 when they cut to Cubs game. Is that how it ended?

    Like

    1. Don….I think Merrifield could very well lead off …in the games he plays.
      Thomson is probably going to keep going with him this spring and see if it can work out.
      Merrifield has lead off a majority of his career with KC…but he played regularly….not sure if that can happen in Philly with this line-up.

      Like

      1. 14-13 today, Blue Jays missed extra point, lol.
        JT did swing at too many high pitches without result.
        Man, Kingery gives me so much of “what could have beens”.

        Like

  46. I know it is only 1 spring training game and I know that Rojas has 2 hits including a triple, but but I really didn’t like his at bats. He really struggled to pick up the curve/slider. A lot of swing and miss. The triple was off a kid who won’t make the roster. I just didn’t like how he looked. Concerning.

    On the other hand Weston Wilson just flat out rakes. I have no idea what kind of defensive player he is but I would feel extremely comfortable with him taking a big AB in the playoffs. Guy is a professional hitter.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I’ve said it all off-season, it wouldn’t hurt to have Rojas start the year at AAA and get some low stress at bats to build his confidence. Same thing with Kerkering. It’s a long season.

      Liked by 1 person

        1. Only problem with that Murray is that Marsh in CF is a huge drop off from Pache or Rojas

          And Whit while capable in LF is not good out there for extended periods of time. He really is just a 2B these days.

          Like

      1. Agree……..and in Rojas case, all things considered barring no injuries to outfielders, I think it will happen.

        I thought that his swing last year at Reading looked much better than what I’ve seen so far this year. But, we are only two games into it.

        Like

  47. v1…I only saw Rojas first at bat but did not look good. Much like last Fall. But only first game as you said.
    Denny…those extra points are big. Ask the 49ers.

    Like

    1. Yes they are.
      Rojas’ batting technique bothers me. He swings like he is playing tennis and is trying to hit a drop shot or something like that type of analogy. Doesn’t swing thru the ball.

      Like

    1. Matt Kroon is 27. He’s behind Weston Wilson in the depth chart, and Wilson is 29.

      The Phillies don’t want to see Kroon on the ML roster. That means that the Phillies have had disastrous injuries in the OF.

      Kroon is auditioning for other teams, but guess what? Pretty much all teams have players like Kroon in their systems.

      Liked by 1 person

  48. Romus…I think Jim mentioned they may get some per diem money. Not sure if it matters if they get in the game. I thought I saw that a while back.

    Like

    1. Abel looked fine. It’s always hard to get an accurate read on pitcher, or any player really, during the first week of ST. I can say I watched a lot of his games on MiLBTV last year and he should have more in the tank going forward including higher velocity (again, not surprising). It seems he’s really working on throwing strikes, so you’ll probably see more breaking balls that he can better command. Overall, today, he looked like a potential mid-rotation starter, but it’s early yet. By the way, one guy who impressed me on Saturday was Mercado. His pitching line wasn’t good, but the stuff is pretty electric. That looks like an interesting and very cheap gamble with some upside. Speaking of higher upside, I really liked everything about Pache yesterday – the swing looked excellent. Rojas has stolen his thunder (and I get why), but Pache is an elite or near-elite fielder with some potential at the plate too. He could still surprise us and I’m glad they are keeping him around for now.

      Like

      1. I’m glad Topper mentioned the”squeezing” by the umpire on Saturday. Not the Allard was great but he threw more strikes than were called by that ump.

        Like

  49. See Bellinger goes back to Cubs for 3 and 80M. Plus, some opt outs. Not at all what he wanted. Looks like Snell, Montogomery, Chapman last of the big names left.

    Like

      1. It basically ended up being the AAV I thought the Phillies could have offered without the extra years…

        Great deal for the Cubs

        Like

        1. it’s not that great of a deal for Cubs. It’s an OK deal and they don’t lose the draft picks and international $$ for signing it like the Phillies and several other teams would have.

          Bellinger basically signed a 1-year deal with 2 years of insurance. If he has a good year, he can opt out without the associated QO and go back on the market. If he regresses, he won’t opt out gets paid $30 million in 2025. He can then choose to opt out again after 2025 if he wants and try FA again.

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  50. Romus…yes, I knew that with all of them. Plus, Martinez.
    Article up now on Boras 5 if one year deal where would be best.
    It is not accurate since they had Bellinger to Phillies, and he went to Cubs.
    Article had this.
    Snell- Giants
    Bellinger-Phillies oops
    Montgomery-Rangers
    Chapman-Cubs oops. not likely now
    Martinez-Marlins
    Not predicting too well.
    One would think he would want the pitchers to get in camp fairly soon.

    Like

  51. So far so good for Pache, Kingery, and Abel. All off to good starts
    Pache jumping on that 1st pitch FB. It was a meatball but he didn’t miss it.
    Kingery, not sure how incredible a ST he would need to have to make the team, assuming no one is injured
    Abel, looked good. 96mph right out the gate? I’ll have to rewatch, schwarber & McCarty were yapping about last year w when he was pitching. Didn’t get the usual look. Look good from what I saw

    Liked by 1 person

    1. That yapping from McCarthy with Schwarber was annoying but they are doing that all the time in ST. I saw it Saturday with the Blue Jays, last year with the Pirates and Tigers and probably others. I would rather not have this interview at all, with social media it is all old news.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. T-Mac’s constant yapping and the on the field interviews to me are quite annoying, but I find solace in the little button on the controller marked “mute” 👍.

        Like

  52. I know Middleton wanted it to get out there how strong of an offer the Phillies made to Yamamoto and I can’t say that I blame him but at the end of the day I’m a “don’t listen to what they say but watch what they do” kind of guy.

    And for me JM has maxed his payroll.

    At its core it is a business and you’ll hear players cite that when its convenient for them to do so. An owner however dare not say it.

    I’m not salty about it. In fact I can’t say that I blame them for not wanting to increase payroll beyond what it is.

    Like

    1. As a business, signing a Japanese player would open up additional revenue streams that signing a bellinger wouldn’t. Good news is, Roki Sasaki will get the same offer or more from the Phillies for the same reasons. Regardless where their payroll is when he comes over, it will make business sense to sign him to a crazy contract. They will be players for him, something that could not be said before, realistically.

      For a bellinger, yeah the same opportunity is not there. You also have to go back to Harper’s comment about “at some point you have to home grow the stars” because you can have all these massive contracts. Well… Painter, Abel, Kerkering, Rojas, Crawford, and Miller all offer them a chance to extend the window, and move on from Castellanos, Schwarber, Bohm, Suarez (I hope not) Walker, Kimbrel, Alvarado (Also don’t hope so) Sir A (Ditto)

      Gotta make the changes at some point, so it will be interesting to see how this all shakes out

      Like

      1. Tac have to push back some on that comment. Having a Japanese player doesn’t do anything for John Middleton or the Phillies specifically.

        Phillies are already selling out most nights and a starting pitcher who pitches every 5-6 days will do little to effect that.

        Merch sales don’t go to the club they go to the league and then get split up.

        The city I can see getting a bump in tourism from the Japanese wanting to come in and see Yamamoto but that is going to happen in every city he gets a start in.

        Like

      2. Tac….you may have to hold your breath, temper the enthusiasm, for three more years when it comes to Sasaki……..a player under 25 who has not reached six years of service in a foreign major league is subject to MLB’s international amateur signing bonus pools, which set a hard cap and limit him initially to a minor league contract. Saski has pkayed three years so far in the JPPL……unless they alter the rules.
        https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=sasaki000rok

        Like

        1. Dmar – fair challenge 🙂 merchandise sales are split. It they do get a great share of jersey sales at the stadium
          Store. If the Phillies do demand based pricing they could see a boost but yes you’d think thise would yield more . Where the Phillies could get a great return is this the advertisement costs/deals that
          open up due to the new market. They had to factor that in, when making that offer. If not kudos to Middleton for being aggressive for just expected playoff revenue

          Like

          1. “expected playoff revenue”
            Ironically, a better team would likely reduce playoff revenue for the organization. As it stands, all tickets are sold for all playoff games. Here’s how the money is divided.

            The players get 60% of ticket revenue for the scheduled games in a playoff series – games 1 and 2 in a 3-game series, games 1-2-3 in a 5-game series, and games 1-2-3-4 in a 7-game series. They get nothing for the “if needed” games.

            The commissioner’s office gets 15% of ticket revenue from ALL games.

            The 2 clubs evenly split 25% of ticket revenue for the scheduled games and 85% of ticket revenue for the “if needed” games.

            The commissioner can set his % at the start of the season. If he does, it would effect everyone else’s %.

            A shorter series diminishes the money that the clubs would get. For instance, in 2023 all the wild card series were sweeps. So, the clubs did not get the big benefit of any “if needed” games. Two of the four division series were sweeps, the other two went to a game four. The four clubs in the championship series got full value as both went 7 games. But the world series was just a 5-game series.

            The reward for Middleton is making the playoffs and going deeper. But I don’t think the extra ticket revenue is the driving force for him to acquire players. I think he genuinely wants to get “his” trophy back.

            When ALL common revenue is tallied it is divided as follows (this would include TV and other revenue which would be split evenly):
            WS Winner 36%
            WS Loser 24%
            LCS Loser 12%
            LCS Loser 12%
            DS Loser 3.25%
            DS Loser 3.25%
            DS Loser 3.25%
            DS Loser 3.25%
            WCS Loser 0.75%
            WCS Loser 0.75%
            WCS Loser 0.75%
            WCS Loser 0.75%
            Total 100%

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  53. dmar…I think Bellinger was asking at first around $200,000 for 6 years. Something like that. Maybe the Phillies are done as you just mentioned. Maybe waiting to see if either of the two pitchers’ price and years come down.
    BTW saw on MLB last night that Phillies vs Braves is on Wednesday at 1 on MLBN. That is only way I get to see games.

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  54. Well, it appears Stubbs chances for another year have increased greatly with the revelation that Marchan has a back problem. Also, if Pache makes his bat work this spring and Rojas doesn’t, Rojas starts the year at Lehigh.

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  55. Phils Breakout game is on Match 16 v the Tigers’ prospects. The game has been extended from 7 innings to 9 to allow more pitchers to get work. It’s a great new idea and should be fun.

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  56. Murray…is this just a prospects game between the two? I wonder if Max Clark here from Indiana will play in the game for the Tigers.

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    1. Yes, it’s a new game idea across all of baseball. The Phils will play the Tigers but every other team has its own game. The players all need to still have rookie status so I’m interested to see who will play, I’m assuming top prospects in major league camp may not play. Clark should play.

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      1. Murray…thank you. I just wondered. Back in the day both Clark and my grandson played on Bulls teams and had workouts together back when Dan Held was in charge. Both kids were among the top hitters last Spring on the Max Preps lists in Indiana. Seems like a neat idea for teams to do.

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    1. Yes. It’s just another gimmick that Dickerson uses to help the infielders with concentration and hand-eye coordination. It’s only a short drill. He has several others.

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    2. The actual facts are that it’s a Paco activity for the outfielders that the infielders have joined, not a Dickerson gimmick.

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  57. Phils lost to the Red Sox today at their place. I wonder what the record is for teams home/away for ST. Seems like most teams would win home games due to having the right players available. I know it doesn’t make a difference but it does seem like we loose these type of games in the late stages.

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  58. Spencer Strider thinks MLB is going a little too far when it comes to the ‘pitch clock’……now reducing it to 15 seconds without runners on base……health is his primary concern.
    In 2023, 30 MLB pitchers succumbed to Tommy John surgery or similar elbow reconstructions or revisions, including Shohei Ohtani, Sandy Alcantara, Shane McClanahan, Liam Hendriks and Jacob deGrom. That pushed the percentage of major league pitchers who’ve undergone TJ to 35.3%, a 29% increase since 2016, according to independent injury analyst Jon Roegele. Strider say, “With injury rates where they are, I don’t know how we can blindly decrease the clock after the worst injury season in baseball, arguably, without having a conversation about injuries. The league talks about creating more action on the field. Well, when the best players in the league are hurt, how much interest is there in the game?”

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    1. Strider (or the article) is wrongabout the clock “now reducing it to 15 seconds without runners on base”.

      The changes discussed were (all but #3 were approved):
      1.) The Runner’s Lane from home to first base will be widened to include the dirt area between the foul line and the infield grass.
      MLB proposed minor changes to the Pace of Game Regulations to address an increase in game time as the season progressed –
      2.) Timing Between Pitches was reduced from 20 seconds to 18 seconds with runners on base.) A universal 17-second Clock used for the final month of the Triple-A season did not increase violations with runners on base.)
      3.) Batter Timeouts: MLB withdrew a proposal that would have required the home plate umpire to immediately reset the Pitch Clock after a batter called timeout.
      4.) If a new pitcher steps onto the warning track with less than 2:00 remaining on the inning break Clock, the Clock will reset to 2:00 rather than 2:15.
      5.) Mound Visits will be reduced from five per game to four, and an extra mound visit will still be awarded for the ninth inning if the defensive team has zero remaining at the end of the eighth inning. Umpires will also permit defensive players to signal for a mound visit without actually visiting the mound to further help improve pace of game.
      6.) The FTC will now restart the timer after a dead ball when the pitcher has the ball and play is ready to resume. There will no longer be a requirement for the pitcher to be on the mound, removing the pitcher’s ability to delay the start of the timer by walking around the edge of the mound.
      8.) A pitcher who is sent out to warm up for an inning must face at least one batter (in addition to any requirements under the Three-Batter Minimum rule). There were 24 instances this season where the pitcher that warmed up between innings was replaced before throwing a pitch (adding approximately three minutes of dead time per event).

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      1. Thank you Jim for the clarification. I was confused on the pitcher warming up had to pitch to one batter rule. I was thinking it was in the bullpen, but this makes great sense. I didn’t even know that this occurred.

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  59. Matt Snyder on CBS has his top 10 starting rotations as of now. He has Braves, Astros and Phillies his top 3. Any thoughts on this. Thinks Nola will have a strong season in 24.
    Romus…You bring up good points. One thing with the pitchers throwing so hard there is most likely going to be several injuries. Romus on that point I learned last week that Coach Stanky knew I had hurt my shoulder pitching at the end of the summer. I never knew that he knew for over 50 years.

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  60. Rocco……….how much has your hero “El Capitan” subsidized Darick Hall to date. Just round it off no need to break it down to centavo’s!

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  61. i was at the game to day. brogdon’s fastball was 92-93. Also control issue’s . He needs to add 3-4 more mph on his fastball to have a chance to make this team. just does not look like the same pitcher from a couple of years ago. i do not claim to have any expertise in the art of hitting, but rojas did not make any changes with his swing. still lacks discipline and swing is to long

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  62. Basic Question How Many % Major League Hitters are “Guess”Hitters? It is Very Difficult to Hit Major League Pitching, the Best in the World. You hear The First Pitch Get it over Fastball that is “Ambushed” “Sitting on a Pitch” with all the Handheld Blue Screen/Instant replay. “Pitching Backwards” Command of 3-4 Pitches, not Control, but Command. I’ve Seen Many a HitterTake the Fastball In or a Strike K Looking. Swinging Wildly at an “Slider Away” Even Harper confessed to Looking for a Certain Pitch, and Looking Silly if they Swing and it’s not the Pitch they were Looking For. All the Data/Graphics/Scouting/Analytics Show Both Pitcher and Hitter. Pitchers had the perfect Storm to handle Phillies hitters and exploit weaknesses. Just a Longwinded Question about “Guess Hitting”. Can the Pitcher Put the Ball where He Should and Wants; and Can the Hitter Hit the “Mistake”? The Hanging Slider, Curve, that High Changeup. “He missed His Spot”.

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      1. I watched a lot of Dave Kingman growing up. He was not a good baseball player, and even though he was physically talented, he wasn’t a really great guy and was no student of the game. But I still believe to this day that nobody I have ever seen could hit a baseball as far as Dave Kingman. Nobody. I saw Dave Kingman hit a ball that hit the rim of the roof in Olympic stadium in Montreal. The ball was hit down the left field line and was hit a good 50 feet or more ABOVE the foul pole so you couldn’t tell if it was fair or foul and they didn’t draw a line on the roof rim because nobody believed a human could ever hit the ball that high and far. That ball was going to travel, in my view, at least 500-550 feet. He also used to hit balls out of Wrigley that went far into the neighborhood. As much as he struck out, when he came to bat it was “must see” tv. He hit baseballs and made them look like they were golf balls.

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        1. Everything you say is correct.
          I was glued to the telly watching Kingman when he came to the plate…even as a Met, first the Giants, then at Wrigley…..he really was a masher…..over 400 HRs and over 1800Ks.
          Oddly, at USC he started there as a pitcher then became a hitter and led them to a NCAA championship

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          1. There are only two other guys I’ve seen that I thought maybe hit the ball with that level of velocity, but neither hit balls with the same perfect home run trajectory as Kingman. Giancarlo Stanton absolutely mashes the ball. The balls goes as hard off of his bat as almost anyone I’ve ever seen, but he hits line drives mostly. The same was true of Willie McCovey – he could darn near kill a fielder with a line drive and when he hit a ball it went out of the park so quickly it was amazing. And there are a bunch of other guys who hit amazing, long homers – Bonds, Stargell, Judge, McGwire, and Mickey Mantle I’m told (I’m not THAT old) but, still I’ve never seen anyone yet who could consistently hit the ball as far as Kingman. I have no doubt at all that, if he got “all” of it, Kingman could have taken a pitch to the back of, or even over, Ashburn Alley. His ability to drive a baseball farther than anyone else was superhuman. Completely unreal.

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            1. Yes Kigman could easily get it into Ashburn Alley with his power.
              Also for me, besides Stanton and McCovey, I have to add in Dick Allen.
              I have seen Dick Allen hit a HR out of Connie Mack Stadium over the LF roof…all the while using a large 42- ounce piece of timber. I cannot even imagine how he did it …he must have had the strongest wrists around…with great action

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            2. BTW……The weight of the heaviest bat allowed in MLB is 46 ounces. This weight limit was put in place by the MLB in 2009, and it applies to all bats used in professional baseball games….now seriously, who on this planet can get that bat around on a 95 mph FB!

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            3. You mentioned Willie McCovey, I didn’t see it, but did anyone see the last out of the 1962 WS where WM hit a very hard line drive to the Yankees 2b to end the game? I heard it was one of the hardest hit balls ever for an out. The game was on the line and if it was a hit the Giants would have won the WS.

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          2. My college roommates and I had tickets to the Yankees/Red Sox series in September 1977. Kingman joined the Yankees for the September run. Our seats, bought on opening day that year, were right behind home plate. Kingman was a massive man. He came to the plate and hit a foul ball behind the left field dugout. The ball went up. I could have gone to the concession stand. Picked up a dog and beer. Went to the head and been back by the time that ball came down on a woman’s seat and proceeded to bounce almost as high as it went up. That woman would have been dead, if she wasn’t standing. Later in the game, Kingman came up. One of my roommates had the game on the radio. The pitch came in and with the crack of the bat, the announcer on the radio said, “That ball is in the outbound lane of the Mass. Pike.” From behind the plate, that ball looked like it would never come down.

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            1. When he was still with the Giants, I saw Kingman hit some amazing home runs at Shea Stadium on TV.

              If you remember Shea, the bullpens were over the left and right field fences and they went very deep beyond the outfield walls and had their own back walls which must have been at least 430-450 feet from home plate. Basically, nobody hit the ball over the back bullpen wall. Nobody but Kingman, that is. Kingman, at least a couple of times, hit the ball over the back bullpen fence and struck cars in the player parking lot beyond the bullpen wall. With Kingman, you just had to see it to believe it – but he would crazy home runs like that all the time.

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        2. No doubt that Kingman was all or nothing for the most part. In regard to the heaviest bat, I always thought that Dick Allen used a really heavy bat. Not sure what it weighed but I thought it was the heaviest at least then. Watching today it seems like Nick uses a pretty heavy bat. No idea what his is. Romus, I agree with the guys throwing so hard a light bat might be in order.

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          1. Don…..Dick Allen used a 42 ounce bat as reported. Heavy bats made a short-lived comeback in the 60s with a few marquee players. Roberto Clemente sometimes swung a 39-ouncer, and Orlando Cepeda and Dick Allen hefted bats that weighed 40 ounces or more. Clemente often took a couple of bats to the on-deck circle, making his final selection on “feel,” intuition, and the tendencies of the pitcher. After the 60s …players preferred the lighter bats…….be it ash, maple or hickory. I think they are all now ash.

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            1. Romus…Allen hit for a good average with that heavy bat. I always liked the light bats. Not sure we had many choices on what the bat was made of back then. Think all were Louisville Sluggers in my time. I know they break pretty easy today.

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    1. Don’t know what that number is but Schwarber looks to guess on a lot of pitches. I suspect most hitters guess on pitches regularly but doubt they guess on everything.

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        1. But taking pitches is part of his game. He drew 123 walks last year. Without those walks, and with his batting average so low, he’s barely a major league hitter (even with the power). But he does wait on and hit early pitch fastballs in the zone – that’s a huge part of his game. What he really needs to do is not swing so hard and make more regular contact. A .230 average for him is fine with the walks. Under .200 is rough, even when he hits 47 homers.

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          1. Sorry, it was 126 walks. That’s a LOT of walks. His OBP was .343 – not bad at all – Jimmy Rollins rarely had an OBP that high (in fact only twice in his entire career over full seasons).

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    2. Gary – I saw a video that goes into detail on just how important the count is. It’s shows avg for the 12 possible counts a batter goes through. I believe it was called “the count the only thing that matters” on good old YouTube. Check it outz, about 10 days ago

      Liked by 1 person

      1. YES I found and Saw on You Tube that 18 minute Video on Pitch counts and the Stats for Each Count. I think with the Center field Camera view, it seems like we can watch at home and think there is More T I m e to Decide to Swing or Not When the hitter in the box has Split Seconds to Pull the Trigger or Not. That Umpire Cam they use in Playoffs/World Series shows what it looks like as the Pitch comes in. and the Hitter Swinging. . . Maybe the future AI Umps will have a Bigger Camera.

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    3. I believe its a very small percentage of hitters that can recognize and react to what they see. So that would mean the majority of hitters rely on (I don’t want to call it guessing) sitting on certain pitches in an area they want to attack.

      And if they get it they swing.

      And there are some who are flat out trying to guess along with the pitcher and catcher.

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      1. DMAR..agree……like to call it ‘probabilty assumption’ vs guessing…MLB hitters are intelligent enough to know what to expect in certain counts and from what the opposing pitcher has going good for him that day.
        After that it is a matter of execution….bat on the ball.
        Remember Ryan Howard vs LHP when he had two strikes….he knew , we all knew the next pitch, low and away breaking ball…he just could not execute.

        Liked by 1 person

  63. I know it is only spring training but I get so frustrated on the road when we are ahead in the late innings, I know we are going to blow the lead. It happens so often, 2 in a row. It is what I posted yesterday, home team has guns to our knives.

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    1. Don’t sweat it. The pitcher was Schulze – he’s probably never going to get a cup of coffee.

      However, as I noted the other day, keep your eye on Mercado. His minor league stats are admittedly not good. But he has a hell of an arm – he throws a very hard and “live” ball. There really might be something there and today he struck out 3 in an inning. Great value pick up by DD and Fuld.

      Liked by 1 person

  64. Saw people talking about Mc Covey, Remember one time sitting in Bleacher in Connie Mack, Mc Covey hits a ball over the wall just right of the light tower, in Right Center, Richie Allen came up later in game and hit his farther, and he was right handed, Richie Allen later in life, when i used to see him at turf club, Was really nice guy, He would drink his Heinekens and we would talk Horses, he loved them, I Believe his family is involved with horses, one is a trainer, I really loved that Wall in right field, Like going to Boston, i enjoy that park because of there wall and it seems your closer to action,

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    1. In batting practice at Connie Mack, we used to sit right where the seats and wall meet in RF. You could see down at the rowhomes on the street below. Kids sitting on the stoops of the homes would yell up to us and ask who was hitting, if we said Callison, Allen, Covington they would stand up and get ready for a ball, Wine, Rojas, they would sit down.

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      1. Denny……..they were the kids earlier in the day that we gave the “insurance” money to, to watch the cars……. today’s equivalent to metered parking for you youngsters!

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        1. Hahaha so true. That parking lot they had was terrible. I think it was like a horseshoe shaped and was maybe 5 cars wide and you had to wait for the cars in front to leave so you could get out.

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  65. Rocco…I think Allen did have maybe even some racehorses back in his playing days. I remember when you would hear him talk about them. No doubt both of those guys could hit the ball long and far. It is too bad he was unable to play his career in Philly. I always thought he was a really good player. Just me.

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  66. Great article on Christopher Sanchez. He added 10 pounds of muscle this offseason. His sinker yesterday averaged 94 mph, +2 from last year. And he added a new pitch, a cutter, which he got a swing and miss from Correa. We traded a really good prospect for him and the prior GM got panned for it, but it looks like a very good trade. As good of a propsect as Mead is, it’s always better to have a legit MLB starting pitcher. Sanchez looks like a real find.

    https://theathletic.com/5303945/2024/02/28/cristopher-sanchez-cutter-phillies-2024/

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    1. Saw Mead play 3B for Tampa vs O’s on Monday here in Sarasota. He looks good with a bat in his hands but not too good with the glove. He was unsure of his throws to 1B and looks very mechanical. I don’t think they can find a position for him and he doesn’t carry enough power to just be a DH.

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      1. For two yrs all i hear is Mead and the mistake we made, I dont know him, is he the best prospect in mlb? How great is it?

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    2. Hopefully Sanchez can show the progression and then consistency that Suarez has shown.

      You can’t sign everyone to LT deals and you need to hit on guys like Chris to keep the train rolling.

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    3. How this trade came up roses for Philly Phans… i don’t know … but I love it. Sanchez still hasn’t hit his ceiling. He could be Suarez 2.0

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      1. Ranger is a good comp for Sanchez. Very similar type pitchers. This article pointed out a really interesting fact on Sanchez, his 4% walk rate was the 6th best in the majors. I hadn’t known that his command was so good. That is really awesome. As a benchmark, Zack Greinke was 5th with a 3.9% rate. Wheeler had a 5% walk rate and Nola a 5.7% rate. So Sanchez’s 4% over 99 innings is elite.

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        1. Hopefully with the new pitch, cut FB…RHBs will not be able to hit him as well as last season.
          Though a slash of 260/.292/.473 is not terribly bad….he can be more selective with his change-up to them as his out pitch.

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        2. Here’s the weird thing about Sanchez. Until he was promoted last year to the majors, his command was not that good. In fact, his control was not that good in the minors. His minor league numbers last year were “meh” at best. That doesn’t mean his performance is a mirage – we just don’t know yet. Sometimes the light bulb turns on for a player and he just hits another gear altogether and it’s a permanent change (see Cliff Lee, Jose Bautista, Kevin Gausman) – we shall see.

          Liked by 1 person

  67. FYI for anyone like me who has Direct TV. Phillies vs Braves on MLBN today at 1. One thing I have noticed is that the weather in Florida looks really nice so far for these games. Here in Indiana, it was 70 yesterday and in the 20s today. Just normal for Spring here.
    Rocco…I started paying attention to the Phillies in the mid 60s. I was thinking Wine and Rojas played for the Phillies maybe in the late 60s. I remember Tony Taylor. I was most upset later in the 70s when Dave Cash left via free agency. I always thought players should be loyal, but a new era was on the horizon. I was a big Johnny Callison fan. I batted left-handed and tried to copy his style.

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    1. MLBN is a channel I could not do without. I pretty much watch it year round. When I’m not watching Phillies games of course.

      I’m watching it now in fact…

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        1. I know exactly what you’re saying and I don’t watch all of their programming. I’m a classic flipper with the remote Romus

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    2. Wine and Amaro (Sr.) were the shortstops on the 64 team, while Taylor and Rojas split 2B.

      All batted right handed, so not sure how a platoon was determined.

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  68. I just got back home. Nelson just gave up a home run. Looks like a nice crowd and great weather today. I remember the Bunning no hitter. I enjoy MLBN as well. But my favorite is MLB Extra Inning package. Mine is like $160 or so for all season. Best money I spend all year.

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  69. MSN is reporting the Phillies & Astros are discussing a Kyle Tucker trade…
    Seems odd…. But per them its

    Tucker (2 yrs of arb control)
    For
    A combination of (i guessing 2 of)
    Abel, Crawford, and Miller.

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    1. Interesting….they must be throwing it up against the wall hoping to stick.
      But …..outside of Miller, I would be tempeted….but Castellanos and his salary has to go back to the’Stros also, since Tucker needs to play somewhere.
      Only reason I see the Stros wanting to do that deal…..Abel…..they need MLB- ready young arms in their system

      Liked by 1 person

      1. It would further reduce the RH power of the team, which is concerning, but perhaps Tucker hits RHs just as well as LHs or close… I haven’t looked. Obviously a great player, but two of Abel, Crawford, or Miller hurts, unless they take Castellanos’ salary from the Phillies in full. If Phillies are paying any of that salary down, then sending 2 of our top 4 prospects seems like an overpay, even for a great OF, primarily because the fit is a little unclear. It makes an already LH-heavy lineup more so.

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  70. Romus…I saw this a few weeks back about being discussed. Think Astros do not want to pay Tucker what he may want. It has been a while since I read it but something on that basis. I forget who was being mentioned on Phillies end from the article I saw.

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    1. Yeah Don……agree.
      Tucker will want a King’s Ransom contract……but that is not all…..he is in his second arb year….so next year his salary could balloon from $12M this season to $20M or perhap even more….especially if he is has his 4th 5WAR plus season in a row. The precedent in the last arb year has been set with the likes of Judge, Soto etc. and that was in the high 20s or more range
      So the Stros are probably trying to nip it in the bud when it comes to team payroll.

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      1. rocco…..with Tucker in the line-up, the Phillies bats are arguably on par with the Braves and Dodgers.
        I think the Phillies bP is pretty well set now…..but who knows with relievers each year.

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  71. I forget when I saw this, but it was a few weeks ago so this has been at least discussed for a while. Tucker is really good. Adding him would be an offensive and defensive plus. But I agree with Rocco that I think Phillies may still need another bullpen guy. Stud guy as well.

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  72. Again our minor leaguers blow a save, I’ve been harping on this last 3 games, I don’t live in Philly anymore but complaining makes me nostalgic.

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