Pre-ST Phillies Discussion

Other Stuff

Let’s see.  The Phillies did nothing while I was away.  So, I didn’t miss anything.  However, they did grab a multi-positional player off waivers from the Yankees.  Diego Castillo completes the Phillies 40-man roster.  For now. 

Castillo is primarily a middle infielder with more games at short than at second who has also played first, third, left, and right.  He even tossed a couple innings for the Pirates in 2022.  While he posted a .206/251/.382/.633 in 283 plate appearances and 96 games in 2022, he only made one appearance and got one at bat with Arizona in 2023.  He definitely has one option and maybe a second available.

The Phillies are the third team to claim Castillo this offseason.  After he was DFA-ed by the Diamondbacks, the Mets and Yankees each claimed and tried to pass him through waivers.  He’ll remain a Phillie until they try the same.

Today, the Phillies traded cash to acquire RHP Michael Rucker from the Chicago Cubs.  That addition necessitated the designation of RHP Andrew Bellatti to make room on the 40-man roster.  This looks like one of those improvement around the margin deals.  Rucker posted a 4.91 ERA last year while Bellatti posted a 5.11 ERA.  Certainly not the type of addition to the bullpen for which we’ve been waiting.

The acquisition of LHP Mason Ronan last month raised the Phillies’ offseason stateside minor league player count to the maximum of 175 players (by my pretty accurate count).  The Phillies can add no more minor league players at any stateside level without a corresponding release.  The start of the major league season will send at most 14 players to the minors and require 14 releases unless spots are opened by placing players on the 60-day or full season injury lists.  When the minor league season begins, the allowable stateside count drops to 165 players and may trigger more releases.

My “trip” to the DR was actually just one stop on a cruise of the western Caribbean.  We spent about 8 hours at Porto Playa which is about three hours from the Phillies Baseball Academy according to our tour guide.  So, visiting was not a realistic option.  Our other stops were Nassau in the Bahamas and Grand Turk.  When we got home, we learned that the US State Department had issued a travel advisory regarding Nassau because of 18 murders so far this year.

One baseball thing I paid attention to while being driven around the town and countryside was what team memorabilia the people choose to wear.  When wearing baseball apparel, Dominicans seem to prefer the Yankees.  The only others I saw worn were the Red Sox, Dodgers, and Royals.  This is a purely unscientific study of why the Phillies may still struggle in the Latin American market.  Looks like they could still be paying for decisions made by leadership 20-30 years ago.

Back to baseball.  So, if the Phillies are all rostered up, are they done?  Of course not.  The national guys who keep spewing out rumors are not necessarily aware of the roster limits that teams have reached other than the 40-man counts.  So, they continue to dig up possible stories and just plain BS.  Some that I’ve read since coming home.  I’m not sure what’s new or current.

Jordan Montgomery.  I don’t think the Phillies are going to give him the “Nola” money he wants.  But the longer he’s unsigned, the better the chance he lowers his expectations and Dombrowski jumps at the opportunity.  Maybe his agent would do a pillow contract for one year to prove tat 2023 was not a fluke.  Such a signing would give the Phillies one too many starting pitchers.  Barring an injury, Taijuan Walker would likely be moved.  While some think that Walker is a liability or disillusioned, there are teams that would trade for the innings eater.  I had floated the suggestion with friends that maybe Ranger Suarez could return to the pen to bolster the back end.  But it is generally believed that the Phillies see Suarez as too valuable in the rotation.  Oh well back inside the box.

Cody Bellinger.  This one surprised me.  A national guy suggested that Bellinger’s camp approached the Phillies.  Maybe they’ve given up on securing the 12-year/$264M contract predicted by MLB Trade Rumors.  Maybe they’ll settle for a shorter deal or a pillow contract to prove that he really as regained his earlier form.  I believe the Phillies are about $22M under the third tax penalty level.  Signing the CF for one year wouldn’t really hurt Johan Rojas.  He could be the team’s fourth outfielder or even start the season in Triple-A.  But the Phillies would pretty much be locked into their current pitching staff.  A multi-year deal would free up Rojas as a trade piece for a reliever like maybe Emmanuel Clase.  Including Rojas in a deal would hopefully lower the prospect cost of the deal.  Maybe the Phillies could slip in a lower salaried non-prospect to keep under the next penalty level.  However, despite what we’ve read though, I think the Phillies really like Rojas and are impressed with his improvement over the winter.

The Bench.  I believe the Phillies would still like to bolster their bench.  I’m not sure that Diego Castillo is their answer for that.  I think they would like to add one of the available guys.  With Jorge Soler coming off the books, Whit Merrifield and Tommy Pham wight be the two best of the remaining bench guys.

Phil Maton.  The guy a lot of us thought was their fallback option if they were priced out of the market for other targets has apparently agreed to sign with the Rays.  One year and an option should have been in the Phillies wheelhouse.  I guess that $6.5M was higher than the Phillies wanted to go.  That can be said for several of the better guys who signed one-year deals recently.  The Phillies have a number in mind and aren’t going to blow past it.  Other guys like Jake Diekman and Shintaro Fujinami just weren’t better than the guys they already have on the 40-man roster or at Triple-A.

I’ve returned to the Complex this week.  Along with the High Performance Campers, several Phillies are on hand.  Today Aaron Nola threw a bullpen and looked pretty sharp for early February.  Orion Kerkering and NRI pitcher Tyler Phillips long-tossed.  As did Rafael Marchan, Matt Strahm, and Jeff Hoffman.  NRI catcher William Simoneit caught Nola.  Nick Nelson, Jose Alvarado, and JT Realmuto have also been here for more than a week.  So, at least 20% of the roster is here already.  (Jose Alvarado tossed today.)

Keep in mind that the number of Phillies NRIs (15) is much lower this year than in past years.  That is a direct result of the lower number of spots available in the minor leagues.  It is not a reflection of how good the Phillies’ minors are.  Twelve of the 15 invites were with the organization last season, all but one with Lehigh Valley.  The only new guys are Rule 5 selection catcher William Simoneit and free agent right-handed pitchers Ryan Burr and Jose Ruiz.  A camp invite is one important carrot for minor league free agents, the other being the chance to compete for a major league roster spot.  Since the Phillies don’t have any space on minor league rosters, they can’t induce free agents to sign.  (The acquisition of Michael Rucker and designation of Andrew Bellatti alters this paragraph slightly.)

Regarding the Phillies and multi-year contracts and pitchers, they have long tried to avoid giving contracts of more than three years to free agent pitchers.  In fact, prior to Aaron Nola’s deal this offseason, they have only negotiated four.

  1. Cliff Lee: 5-year/$120M, 2011-2015
  2. Zach Wheeler: 5-year/$118M, 2020-2024
  3. Taijuan Walker: 4-year/$72M, 2023-2026
  4. Jonathan Papelbon: 4-year/$50,000,058, 2012-2015

They have also tried to avoid more than one- or two-year deals with relievers, but they have gone three years in the past with Tom Gordon, JC Romero, Mitch Williams, and Rheal Cormier.

I think that the Phillies will soon have to amend their thinking regarding the length of pitchers’ contracts if they want to secure the services of the better middle tier pitchers.

Dang, this ran longer than I expected.  Let me add this and then I’ll sign off.

I spent two days trying to figure out how I turned on the Nero thumbs up/down on comments.  Finally, I went to a WordPress forum and posed the question, “How do I turn it off”.  Fortunately, one of their experts provided me with the answer and I removed it Monday.  I replaced it with a Like feature, the little star at the bottom of the comment.  If you like a comment, then others can pass their mouse over it to see who liked the comment.  This is less invasive than the thumbs and should put an end to the silly childness that arose from the use of the thumbs down as a weapon of sorts.  It had the wrong affect as the victim didn’t care, but others here did.  Hopefully that’s the end of this.

Important Dates

  • December 15, 5 p.m. EST: Close of the 2022-2023 international signing period
  • January 8 – February 9, 2024: High Performance Camp in Clearwater
  • January 12, 2024: Salary arbitration figures exchanged
  • January 15, 2024, 9 a.m. EST: Opening of the 2023-2024 international signing period
  • January 29 – February 16, 2024: Salary arbitration hearings, Scottsdale, AZ
  • February 14, 2024: Voluntary reporting date for pitchers, catchers, and injured players
  • February 19, 2024: Voluntary reporting date for other players
  • February 19, 2024: Minor League Mini-Camp (invitation only)
  • February 23, 2024: Mandatory reporting date
  • February 29, 2024: Start of minor league spring training
  • March 1-10, 2024: Period for renewing contracts of unsigned players (pre-arb, the 0-3-year players) on 40-man rosters
  • March 20-21, 2024: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego in Seoul, South Korea
  • March 28, 2024: Opening day for all other teams, active rosters reduced to 26 players
  • June 8-9, 2024: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia in London
  • July 14-16, 2024: Amateur draft, Arlington, TX

Transactions

2/06/2024 – Phillies designated RHP Andrew Bellatti for assignment
2/06/2024 – Chicago Cubs traded RHP Michael Rucker to Phillies for cash
2/05/2024 – Phillies claimed SS Diego Castillo off waivers from New York Yankees

134 thoughts on “Pre-ST Phillies Discussion”

  1. The Cliff Lee 5-year deal really bit the Phils in the proverbial butt… for the last two years! But maybe a big market team can afford that

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  2. This is the definition of “running it back”. The team that ended the playoffs will be the same, minus Kimbrel, we see start this season if nothing happens. I don’t think that ever works out well. There’s still time but few real names to add.

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    1. “…..we see start this season if nothing happens. I don’t think that ever works out well….”
      I kind of agree……concerning only the 8 position players, the Phillies have put themselves in a position that 6/7, are virtualy not going to be moved…..maybe one candidate could have been in Castellanos. The infield and catcher are here to stay, along with it now appears Marsh and Rojas.
      So the fans have to cross their fingers and hope for the better.

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        1. I hear Michael Martinez is still playing. He is playing on a team in an Independent League in Hickory, NC with my grandson’s high school coach.

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  3. As GMs and even in our case owners come and go so should philosophies LOL

    Or maybe its a case of the more things change the more they stay the same.

    As relievers go one year good one year bad this would have been Bellatti’s year to bounce back. Bellati’s K/9 in 22 was 12.9 it dropped off to 9 last season. His hits and HRs also jumped quite a bit.

    Rucker makes very little sense. He is basically what Bellatti was last season without any of Bellattis upside years. He doesn’t K a lot of batters and he gives up a ton of HRs.

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    1. I believe Rucker has an option left where as Bellatti does not.

      Also, Brogdon and Covey do not have options left.

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  4. In the Inky David Murphy with some interesting observations about Marsh:

    “His final postseason numbers: a .342/.405/.526 batting line, five extra base hits, four walks, 42 plate appearances…..This wasn’t just a blip. Marsh was pretty much the same hitter he’d been since the All-Star break. In his last 52 games of the regular season, he hit .281/.408/.473 and made a huge dent in his strikeout/walk numbers.

    Marsh, overall, 2022: 158 Ks, 28 walks (191/34 over 162 games)
    Marsh pre-ASB, 2023: 93 Ks, 30 walks (186/60 over 162 games)
    Marsh post-ASB, 2023: 51 Ks, 29 walks (159/90 over 162 games).”

    I had thought Marsh had finished stronger, but that’s better than I remembered

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    1. The biggest thing to me, and Murphy so much as says it too, is that he was at his best when the stakes were highest and when the pitching he faced was outstanding. I never projected Marsh as developing into this type of player and he still has more room to grow, so kudos to DD and his staff for identifying Marsh and helping him reach his potential as a major league player. They gave up a lot to get him (a potential all-star catcher or, at least, first division regular behind the plate), but, so far, it’s turning out to be a very solid trade.

      Liked by 2 people

    2. LOL David Murphy must read DMAR as I posted essentially the same thing here 3-4 weeks ago and then ended my post with Marsh should be the teams LO Hitter going forward.

      And I was not a happy camper with the trade at the time as I was enamored with O’Hoppe.

      I don’t know that Marsh is any better than this but I don’t need him to be. If he just stays consistently at this level for the next 4-5 years I’ll be thrilled.

      Liked by 1 person

  5. Jim, Glad your back safe. Hope you had a good time. BTW I think Middleton has figure on what he won’t spend for a lot of reasons, some you’ve stated.Thanks,Mark

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  6. Jim, thanks for the report, it was a really informative.

    I am hoping the Phillies can move Walker too, especially if they can sign a guy like Montgomery to a pillow contract. And you’re right, as limited as Walker may be, the amounts teams are paying for pitchers who aren’t as good as, or are older and with a worse track record than, Walker are astounding, so there will be a market for him ($45m for 3 years of a 34 year-old Seth Lugo? Crazy). He’s being paid $18m per year. If they eat $3-4m per year, they should have a taker. It’s also possible that they let the year play out, see how Abel develops and move Walker at the trade deadline so that he can help them win games in the first half of the season and perhaps even increase his trade value.

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  7. I imagine the Phillies could structure a contract like Ohtani’s (meaning deferrals) but only a lot less in value for someone like Bellinger to achieve a lowered AAV

    and then just pepper it with opt outs if necessary.

    Going into his age 28 season Bellinger in CF for the next season or two does make this team a helluva lot better. He hits lefties exceptionally well and would look really good in the LO hole instead of Kyle.

    Once Kyle’s contract is up Belly can move to 1B or a corner so BH can DH and Crawford can play CF. Maybe Bohm moves to 1B and Miller is manning 3B with Bellinger in RF.

    If Rojas plus a few other lower tier guys gets you Clase do it…

    Liked by 1 person

  8. With Bellinger, how do you know you are getting the 2023 version or the 2021/2022 versions which were not so good?

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    1. Well I believe the separated shoulder was a big deal. I separated my left shoulder a few years back. I’m a right handed hitter. Cody separated his right he is a left handed hitter.

      Now humor me. I play softball I’m not the athlete that Cody is obviously but it took me a couple of seasons not to feel that in my swing.

      But maybe the bigger tell is the difference in his Ks between 2022 and 2023-150 down to 87. After he joined the Cubs he obviously made a decision to prioritize contact over HRs.

      If he has matured as a hitter and now knows who he is as a hitter I think you can safely bet on that. Given the athlete and defensive player he is as well.

      I’m not saying give him 10/$264 but what if you can get him for 7/$189 and entice him with a couple of opt outs after years 1 & 2?

      Liked by 1 person

      1. I would never make a bet like that on Bellinger – it’s just too risky. His health and consistency vary tremendously from year to year, mostly due to health issues. But I’d love him on a one year contract and wouldn’t want to trade Rojas, who will probably get a lot of OF time even if Bellinger became the starter in center this year.

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      2. dmar…I think you make a good point on the injury. They take time and sometimes you have to learn to make adjustments to avoid the pain.
        I hurt my rotator cuff just before going to college. To this day I have lots of pain if I do something that puts strain there. Did that a couple weeks ago. But I had a guy teach me how to pitch fastpitch softball and using the windmill motion my shoulder never hurt. Pitched for around 20 years.
        Another thing on Bellinger is he has a vicious swing like Harper. That alone is going to add stress to that area. I would be in favor of him if the price is right. Phillies could have a rotation of left and right hitters if so. Schwarber, Harper, Bellinger, Stott, and Marsh from the left. Turner, NC, JT, Bohm. Mix and match as guys are hitting or struggling. Pretty potent lineup.

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    2. Not knowing which version of Bellinger you will get may be what is hindering his market. Remember, his camp supposedly came to us. I suggest one of three scenarios –

      1.) They hope that the good will between the parties would lead to a reasonable, face-saving multi-year contract.

      2.) They hope that the good will between the parties would lead to a reasonable, face-saving one-year contract that will provide him with the opportunity to prove he is the newer version of himself and make it easier when he reenters free agency next season.

      3.) They hope that the mere mention of any discourse with the Phillies will ignite interest from other teams.

      I think 2 and 3 are more likely.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Would be terrified of signing Bellinger to a long-term deal. He had a 3-year stretch post MVP where he was basically unplayable due to both injury and performance. he had over 1000 at-bats in those 3 years that were simply terrible.

        Was 2023 a bounce back to form or a blip before a return to unplayable. As a GM, I’m not gambling $20+ million per season for multiple years to find out.

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      2. You have to figure that Boras is playing a huge part of this. Boras wants top dollar for all his clients. But when nobody wants to pay, players are left holding the bag and waiting. It’s crazy that Bellinger (coming off 4.4 WAR, 10th in MVP voting, SS) and Snell (coming off 6 WAR, Cy Young(!)) are unsigned.

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        1. Unless someone wants to take a really big risk, Bellinger probably won’t get the deal he wanted, but he’s still only going to be 29 this year, so doing another pillow contract could be a good thing for him – assuming he can stay healthy.

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  9. Bellinger in CF and Johan in a trade for Clase would be phenomenal and make up for the lack of activity thus far. And I do like Johan, but that is a must.

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  10. For as much as a Bellinger signing would be great to see, I would at this point, take the Johan Rojas upside potential for the year and go from there. To have The Elite Centerfielder in baseball in the #9 spot is tantalizing. Any offense is a plus with this lineup around him. The speed on base paths and then even more importantly the improvement that the pitchers will have with great defense in CF is huge. If his offense improves to what many think it can be, then he would be the best leadoff hitter on the team at some point in the future.
    So for me I’m good with a year of Rojas.
    Play Ball!

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Signing Bellinger is a bell-weather transaction as noted for a Dombrowski
    maneuver.
    Now the length of any contract with him is the concern.
    I definetly could live with a pillow year…..and mayeb 2 or 3, but anything more causes some consternation.
    However, when it comes to John M, and possibly Bryce’s input…..you just never know.

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    1. Bryce is here thru 2031! Turner thru 2033!

      Offering Bellinger 7 at $27 AAV with Opt Outs after years 1 & 2 is essentially a pillow contract.

      If he doesn’t opt out you have him thru 2030. You’ll also see the club AAV go down $43.5 million from JT and Schwarber’s contracts coming off the books in 2026. And if Casty isn’t traded another $20 in 27.

      If he does opt-out after either of those 1st two years it means he had an exceptional season in there somewhere thus maybe you won the big prize.

      And you just freed up $27 in AAV. We’ll be fine LOL!

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    1. Still don’t understand the hate for Cesar. He was a replaceable 2B but the Phillies didn’t have anybody else better than him. To his credit, he posted 3 and 2.8 WAR for 2016 and 2017.

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      1. Agree……..Cesar in his first few years had some issues on the base paths, but rectified them. Last 5 years as a regular everyday player with the Phillies he totaled 11WAR. Seem like he got little respect.

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        1. Cesar was such a polarizing figure on this site – I think perhaps only Rhys Hoskins generated as many mixed reactions (among players that is, if you start talking about GMs, things got even hotter). I was a big Cesar fan for a long time – he could field well, got on base and held his own at bat. But, over time, the really dumb things he did on field (and especially the base paths) began to wear on me – he was just not a very aware player at times, it was frustrating and, at the end, it was time to move on. But on the whole, he was a very solid player during his time here. One of the best players on a pretty bad team.

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    2. They lost me with the comment. “No one above is really a threat to knock off a top 10 pick below. To our list:”

      First person on the list they are referring to was Bryson Stott who is certainly a threat to hit the top-10 once he meets their qualifications of playing 2b for 3 years.

      Would also have Segura #8 above Hernandez at #6.

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      1. I saw that comment too and didn’t get it. Maybe he meant that Stott wouldn’t be in the top 10 right now (which is also debatable). But he could easily end up in the top 3 or 4 over time.

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        1. Looks like Stott will be first eligible a month into 2025 season. At his current pace he could debut where Hernandez is listed at #6. Any of the top five spots would take more than three years. If he does add a gold glove then even better. Now if he switches with Turner at SS then that changes things but my bet is he will be there thru 2025 at the least.

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    1. I can still see Muzziotti having a big league career – like Ender Inciarte. There would seem to be a role for him on a big league roster.

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    2. I’m good with this. Castillo has options and will provide depth at Lehigh. Muzziotti is behind Pache and Cave.

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  14. See DD did interview on WIP94. Had 5 takeaways.
    Phillies offered Yamamoto a really big deal.
    Rojas likely in CF
    Young players hopefully get time to develop.
    Hoping extension for Wheeler
    Tried to land some relievers, Junis, Hicks, Stevenson.
    It is a pretty good article. DD is pretty happy with what they have in interview.
    5 good starters, said 6 good BP arms, and strong lineup.
    I am sure you guys have access to this.

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  15. Been trying to post, having tech fight me. Anyways …

    Bellinger is intriguing, on a pillow or short contract.

    I’d hate to see Rojas go. That defense is damn calming, knowing he’s got it. I think he’s needed as a 4th OF at minimum.

    Anyone else on the Bauer train yet? I know we have some holdouts.
    Pillow contract – 1 year.
    Painter & Abel ready next year

    I’m younger than most you guys – 44. I say this as I think some have the old school right him off attitude. I think he’s turned the corner from what I’ve seen. Phils need to sign him to a creative contract. if he is so bad … don’t let him travel with the team. If he is a cancer, boot him. Put in all the provisions in his contract. So many ways to do this. I think he can give this team the boost it needs, and bridge the gap between one of the young guns stepping up in 2025.

    Who’s moving towards the “Sign Bauer” side? He is easily the Bellinger of 2024

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    1. Other than him speaking out on twitter…has there been any news on where Bauer could land?
      Mets backed off on him last month.
      Have not seen him in any discussios from the regular national news pundits.
      It is like …no comment.
      He may be blacklisted by MLB….too toxic in this current environment.

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      1. I haven’t seen much … but that could also be contributed to the slow offseason. I would have expected him to come off the board towards the end of the quality player pool. Once Montgomery & Snell, I would think you’ll hear whispers.

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    2. Bauer’s production won’t be the issue. Signing Bauer will alienate some fans (me included) and I’m sure some of the Phillies players won’t be too happy about it either.

      No team gave Ray Rice a shot afterwards, and I don’t see why any team would give Bauer a shot. He’s just not worth the bad press.

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      1. Trust me, I know it’s a touchy subject , and I don’t want Jim to have to police that, so please any responses, let’s keep it PC. That said, dive deep into those charges on him, and now with the perspective of him being targeted for his money. If you don’t know, look up Lindsey Hill. I think he’s gotten a bad “wrap” because of her plans. I don’t think any of us condone that behavior, but it adds a shade of different story when you’re baited into it imho.

        From what I know, As a father/husband – I’m comfortable giving him the chance. I would hold him to the stake, trust me. I don’t believe his case is comparable to RaybRice, if you think it is, then I could see why you’d hard pass on him. Again, look at Lindsey Hill’s
        Intensional & plans for him. She ruined his career in a way. Not right in a lot of ways

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        1. Tac3…….the environment is not the same as it was 20 years ago or further back. The NHL and those five players may have had their careers derailed…Bauer looks to bein the same situation…even with the settlement.
          Women make up a good portion of the MLB fanbase and having Bauer on a certain team will undoubtedly open up a can of worms.

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        2. Like it or not, as a baseball player in the spotlight, you’re held to a higher standard. And you have to know that you’re a target. The second he got himself into that situation, he needn’t to stop and walk away. Easy to say, but when your career and money are on the line, you have to do it.

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      2. Bauer was set up. No crime. Bad judgment yes. Morals question, yes. End of day, IF Harper, Wheels and Aaron are OK…he is the best, price value #3 starter out there. And he will pitch with a huge chip.

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        1. By the way, I will not comment on a situation I do not understand that well, but, to be clear, I would not want Bauer on my team if he had never been involved in that fiasco. This guy has historically been a really bad teammate. While he was on the Indians he complained about how he was a much better pitcher than Corey Kluber and wasn’t getting acknowledged as such. Even if that was true (it probably was), who cares? Who on earth says that about their teammate who they should be supporting? A selfish jerk says that and that, my friends, is Trevor Bauer. I don’t want him on a team with lots of good mojo. No thanks.

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          1. I think he also had some issues , when in college Yankees ace Gerrit Cole when both were at UCLA about 15 years ago….of course they were a lot younger and not as wise.
            If the Dodgers or Padres…local teams for him….do not bite on him, not sure the Phillies would either.
            Still, I think I would pass.

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      1. Right Romus…that was just one of the items that was listed, and I forgot it. I am thinking Phillies are happy with what they have. I would pass on Bauer. I still see him throwing that ball into CF from mound. Weird guy.

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  17. I still don’t get the deal for Bobby Witt Jr. 11/288M? Are you serious? For a player that hasn’t hit arbitration yet? Where’s the team discount? Did the Royals sign him quickly to help get a new stadium? It just doesn’t make sense.

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    1. It doesn’t make sense in the case of big market teams, but if the FO/Owner is worried their top talent is going to bolt when FA hits, or negotiations are off as they get closer to FA – Getting him signed now eliminates that issue. It gives Witt the team, and if he is the Utley/Harper type, it’s not a bad move imo. Gives the team a face, identity, and likely increases FA sign there.

      Liked by 1 person

  18. No one mentioned this and I just read it on MLB that because Bellinger rejected a QO offer, the signing team forfeits a 2nd and 5th round pick and 1 mil in intl pool bonus money……..change anyone’s minds.

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    1. Good point. For Cody Bellinger, yes, it probably would. It wouldn’t be worth it to give away those rights for a pillow contract and Bellinger is too risky to sign to a much longer deal. Armed with that information, I would probably pass on Bellinger.

      By the way, Blake Snell remains out there. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if the team pursues him if they can’t extend Wheeler. I’d rather have Wheeler for 3 years than Snell for 7 or 8, but Snell is a heck of a consolation prize and he would fit perfectly in a rotation with Painter, Abel, Suarez and Nola – like the perfect complement to those pitchers in terms of being a power lefty, which they don’t otherwise have.

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  19. Kiley McDaniel prospect list

    1. Andrew Painter, RHP, 60 FV (16th on the Top 100)
    2. Mick Abel, RHP, 50 FV (78)
    3. Justin Crawford, CF, 50 FV (108)
    4. Starlyn Caba, SS, 45+ FV (158)
    5. Aidan Miller, 3B, 45+ FV (167)
    6. Bryan Rincon, SS, 45+ FV (175)
    7. Eduardo Tait, C, 45 FV
    8. Orion Kerkering, RHP, 45 FV
    9. Gabriel Rincones Jr., LF, 40+ FV
    10. Alex McFarlane, RHP, 40+ FV
    11. Aroon Escobar, 2B, 40 FV
    12. Robert Moore, 2B, 40 FV
    13. William Bergolla, SS, 40 FV
    14. Michael Mercado, RHP, 40 FV
    15. Devin Saltiban, SS, 40 FV
    16. Emaarion Boyd, CF, 40 FV
    17. Griff McGarry, RHP, 40 FV
    18. Nikau Pouaka-Grego, 2B, 40 FV
    19. Christian McGowan, RHP, 40 FV

    Notable 2023 graduations: CF Johan Rojas, 1B Darick Hall, 2B Kody Clemens, RHP Luis F. Ortiz

    2024 impact: Kerkering
    Above 40 FV breakout: Tait
    40 FV breakout: Saltiban

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    1. Amazes me how far Griff McGarry has fallen among mnay pundits, since last season’s challenges for him.
      He needs to come back strong and prove them wrong.
      So far he has looked good down at the Complex from reports simplfying his mechanics in delivery..

      Like

      1. McGarry will be 25 in June and he’s spent 3 years in the system and his career minor league walk rate is 6.1. Until that walk rate gets down into the 3s, he’s not having a big league career.

        Like

      2. Yeah, I think this is an understandable reaction to the level of meltdown he had in AAA. He didn’t just struggle there. He utterly imploded. The talent is real and the stuff is wicked. Hopefully, the changes to his mechanics take because the upside would be amazing if he could just hone his control (and I said control and not command because the stuff is so good that he mostly just needs to throw strikes to be effective).

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        1. I think his role eventually will be out of the pen with two plus pitches.
          Phillies will still give him the opp to be a starter this season…at least for the first few months…and if he is able to hone the control he may stay.
          If not, assume they will do what they did with Seranthony, and Francisco Morales….worked for Seranthony, not so much, so far for Morales.

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  20. Watching them pack up the truck for Clearwater always gets me excited. Regardless of what happens for us the rest of the offseason I’m excited to see what adventure this group takes us on this year.

    I’m also more broadly excited for the MLB. I watch a lot of baseball so seeing the likes of Yamamoto, Jackson Holiday at some point, Skenes, Dylan Crews and a handful of others new to the MLB has me pumped.

    And then of course there are always the story lines to follow. Will the Dodgers live up to the hype, will the Mets be the Mutts again, Will the Astros win the West again.

    How will the Orioles follow up 100+ Win Season and so on….

    Like

    1. Os look to becoming the next AL juggernaut……like the Astros did 7/8 years ago.
      Yanks, Sox, Jays and Rays beware.
      How making changes at the GM level has made such a difference.

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  21. Wip and Howard Eskin is reporting Phillies trying to get Classe from Guardians, but stinking point is Crawford

    Like

  22. Rocco…WIP is the article I saw. It had Clase to Phils. But had Crawford, Miller and Rojas to Guardians. That to me seems too much.

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    1. Why not move Crawford it seems no one likes his chances, i wouldnt move miller, Abel instead should get it done, So Abel, Crawford, Rojas, scouts dont like any of them so why not move them

      Like

      1. Way too much. And then who do you have start in LF? Jake Cave/Christian Pache platoon? Why weaken an everyday role by trading Rojas to acquire a closer who pitches in only 1/3 of your games? Both of their top 2 pitchers should be untouchable (Painter/Abel) given the uncertainty with Wheeler after this season and how difficult it is to find quality pitching at a reasonable cost.

        I’d trade Crawford and some lower-level prospects for the closer, but if you do, that’s your shot and you basically aren’t upgrading in a major way at the trade deadline because you’ve already depleted prospect capital.

        I think the team is good enough (and their first half schedule weak enough) that you can play out the start with what you have and have a clearer picture of what you need to get over the hump come July. Maybe it’s a closer and maybe more of them are available in July than February. Maybe it’s a power RH bat in the OF who can play everyday and protect Harper. Point is, that’s an enormous prospect/young talent cost for a closer that isn’t essential to your first half success given the strong arms already in the BP.

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      2. Rocco I’m not sure that I’ve seen any legit scout say they don’t like Crawford?

        I don’t think relief pitchers even closers are ever worth top tier prospects.

        Just my opinion. I’d flip a few of our lower tier guys for him. I’d do a McGarry, Rincones JR and McFarlane deal

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        1. Here’s a quote on Crawford: Crawford’s speed is a huge asset in the outfield and he has the opportunity to be a plus center fielder for a long time. Evaluators who have seen Crawford as a pro describe his game on both sides of the ball as electric, and there’s excitement about the kind of five-tool potential the teenager might be able to display as he physically matures.

          I’ll add his Low A and Hi A 2023 stats: 332/392/859 OPS; 22 Doubles, 8 3 baggers and 3 HRs to go along with 32 BBs 69 Ks and 47 Stolen Bases

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            1. Maybe, but not anytime soon. Crawford is probably at least a year and a half away from a promotion and that’s if everything goes well this year and next. If you trade Rojas and don’t get someone back to play center, you’ve got Pache and Marsh playing there.

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            2. Nope. Crawford turned 20-years-old less than 4 weeks ago. He has 18 games at High-A under his belt. Today, he cannot replace Johan Rojas.

              He is at least 2 years removed from serious consideration of making an MLB roster.

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            3. I would agree Catch. I expect him to start in LKW and at some point get to Reading. Followed by 2025 with a start in Reading and a finish in Lehigh.

              So not really before 2026.

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        2. Then his hitting a lot of ground balls, By people on here, Lack of power, Dont like his swing by scouts, Romus saying he has 70 percent ground balls not good, That was something in my dreams, Abel dropping out of top 100 was also in my dreams,?

          Like

          1. So a few things regarding ground balls in an optimistic point of view.

            For a big heavy slugger that can’t run sure that can be a problem. But for a speedster less so.

            If shifting is now banned fangraphs shows his spray percentages and they are fairly and evenly dispersed.

            I could be wrong but I value bat to ball skills at his age most as well as good plate discipline and he has both. As we discussed over and over the strength will come.

            The other thing I like are his splits. He handled LHP very well so far.

            I remember how quite a few here found reasons to be negative about another Crawford. And all I am saying is its way to early to be trading Justin for a relief pitcher.

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    2. Way too much. I would not trade for a reliever with high prospects, I think Siranthony could do just as well with Kettering and Hoffman backing him up on the right side. We have some others coming up Dallas, Baker, Schultz etc.

      Like

  23. On another note. Seeing PECOTA is predicting Phillies win 85 games, make playoffs but go to Arizona who is projected to win 85.3. Not sure how you win .3. Oh well. Says Phillies will be 15 games behind Braves. I would think the Phillies should be as good or maybe last year when they won 90.

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  24. Romus…sign of Spring coming. Last night I passed on going to see Phillies at Cincy on April 22. My son is taking the 9-year-old. Kid is excited. Last year he got 2 baseballs at the game. Phillies lost like 13-0. Nick tossed him one during BP and then at end of game one of the bullpen guys tossed him up another. They had seats on the front row in left field.
    Since I have MLB Extra Innings it is so easy for me to just sit in my living room and watch almost all games. I tell people it is the best money I spend each year. I believe it is around $160 for all the games.

    Like

  25. Kenley Jansen perhaps from the Sox for the BP.

    MLB Network…@MLBNetwork
    “I was told the Red Sox are in fact listening on [Kenley] Jansen.”
    @jonmorosi
    weighs in on Jansen’s trade market and shares two teams expected to be in the mix for the 4x All-Star reliever, if moved. #MLBNHotStove

    Like

    1. Have to assume if Phillies are one of the teams….McGarry would be involved…certinalt not Abel or Painter.
      Perhaps a young Latin position player like a Bergolla…or Rincon.

      Like

    2. Meh on Jansen. If you’re giving up those pieces, I want somone who is likely not a redux of Kimbrel. Jansen is 36. I’ll pass. Rather wait till the deadline to see who is actually “hot” this year, trade
      For them

      Liked by 1 person

  26. Good point Jim on the Rangers and Diamondbacks. Neither made it in 22 I believe. This is just a question. Romus probably your deal. Has the WS had two teams make it that were not in the playoffs the previous year.
    Romus…I saw that the Red Sox were possibly interested in dealing a few players.

    Like

    1. Jansen would look good closing….hopefully he has not fallen off the cliff.
      I do not think the price would be too high….he is 36 years old and in his last contract year.
      If Dave D can do it…then do it.
      BTW …Rincon is from Pittsburgh, not a LA.

      Like

      1. Well the way Robby likes to deploy his BP Arms he could help. As DD said and seems to be ok with Thomson likes to handle the backend of a game based on match-ups

        He is perfectly comfortable using Alvarado and Dominguez in the 9th or the 6th.

        Before you trade for Jansen you need to be sure he’s onboard with a hybrid role. Assuming he likes winning and has already made his $$$ I’d consider it an upgrade to what is in the pen now.

        Like

      1. FAIL? Over? Did you say ‘Failed ? You say failed> failed not til we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!…

        It ain’t over now, ’cause when the goin’ gets tough, the tough get goin’. Who’s with me? Let’s go! Come on!…(romus runs thru door
        (He returned, chastising his frat brothers) What the f–k happened to the phuture phillies that I used to know? Where’s the spirit? Where’s the guts, huh? This could be the greatest night of our lives, but you’re gonna let it be the worst. ‘Ooh, we’re afraid to fAIL

        Rockys right. Psychotic, but absolutely right.

        Liked by 2 people

        2. ……..if only Romus could have given that tirade at game 7 of the NLCS we would never have lost to AZ, but no, no …. he just had to get in that line to get a box of chocolate covered goobers…disappointing!

          Liked by 1 person

  27. Romus…You never fail. I only knew that both teams last year were not in playoffs previous year. No idea if that has ever happened before. Probably unusual if one made WS. But the playoffs are so much more of a wildcard now who knows. Back when fewer teams maybe more unlikely to have happened.

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    1. I dunno how common it is, but it also happened in 2014 with the Giants and the Royals.

      The Giants were doing their, “every other year” thing, whilst the Royals made it to the playoffs for the first time since like 1985.

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      1. Dan… good find. I doubt very common, but Giants were really weird over those years. KC perfect. A one and done kind of appearance. I have no idea if it has happened since. Thanks.

        Like

  28. Tonight I watched the Savannah Bananas on youtube….I don’t get the excitement. I have seen the Harlem Globetrotters numerous times, and even the Indianapolis Clowns with Nature Boy Williams and Billy Vaughn in the 1960’s, but the Bananas……what am I missing?

    Like

    1. Really, you know I agree. I saw them in person at Durham Bulls Stadium, thetree was loud music throughout the game and it rotated thru so it became monotonous. After 5 innings and a couple drinks at the bar, we took off with a din in our ears. Couldn’t even pay enough attention to the game to know if we could have enjoyed it. It is cool watching snippets on YouTube but extended time, nope.

      Like

  29. I have been to one Savannah Banana game. Son lives in Savannah. It is total entertainment with just a smattering of baseball thrown in as a background. They have constant sell-outs. It is a tough ticket to get and caters mostly to the younger crowd. It is a party atmosphere before, during and after the game.

    Anything that gets the younger crowd interested in the game is a good thing.
    The night I went there Bill “Spaceman” Lee pitched one inning. Head coach is Eric Byrnes- ex Oakland A. Fun time once you convince yourself it is Globetrotter like.

    Like

    1. But it will provide more ABs for both Rojas and Pache in the spring.
      Marsh could be on the field for the St Patty’s game…split squad that day I heard….was $80 per ticket on Stub Hub a few weeks ago…sold out as usual.

      Like

  31. Was planning on making it down to Clearwater this year, pop the cherry, but … some multiple gusts of wind targeted my wallet … well back to the tried and tie recliner/6 pack plan. Easy come … easy go.

    Like

        2. Denny that is everywhere you travel, I found hotels for around 350 a night, which in todays world is cheap, its the add ons that kill me, Lauderdale added 35a night in resort fees and 30 for parking, Vegas same stuff, I go to Saratoga Race track I stay in Marriott, before pandemic i paid 240 a night with free breakfast and parking now its 500 a night, Boston which i love went from 300 a night to 580 for same hotel a night, its crazy. ,

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            1. Salaries are going up but not as fast as Inflation, My kid trying to buy house, is nuts, with the interest rates and taxes, My wife is retiring in a yr, I Will sell my house and moved to Florida, Cant stand philly anymore

              Like

            3. Rocco…..maybe you could latch on with PP and assist Jim with the position of Parole Board Supervisor down there. No one has the experience you have actually being banned. I’m sure Romus would give you a letter of recommendation and I’d be glad to help!

              Liked by 1 person

    1. The Phillies deserve a lot of credit for Johan Rojas. Over 2 WAR last year in maybe one-third a season of at bats. When was the last time that happened (rhetorical question)? An article credited a double A coach I had never heard of, Tyler Hensen, with figuring some swing adjustments out and a way to present them to Rojas.

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      1. Tyler Henson was drafted by the Orioles in 2006 out of HS in OK. He was an infielder who eventually played all infield and outfield positions. He was signed as a minor league free agent by the Phillies after the 2012 season and played for Reading and Lehigh Valley in 2013 and 2014. He declared free agency and was resigned for the 2015 season. He signed gain as a free agent for the 2016 season and was assigned to Reading, but probably was considered a player coach and didn’t play a game all season. He was a coach with the Williamsport Crosscutters in 2017, Lakewood BlueClaws in 2018, and Clearwater Threshers in 2019. He was scheduled to be hitting coach of the Reading Fightin Phils in 2020 before the season was cancelled due to Covid-19 then did coach Reading in 2021-2023.

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  33. I can’t ever remember an off-season where the team didn’t add even one new player to the existing 26. This will be a very boring spring training as it stands today. Rojas and Kerkering both have jobs that they’ll have to be very bad to lose. Even the 4 bench jobs are sewn up with Cave and Pache set. The only job up for grabs is Brogdon vs a few 4A relief pitchers, most of whom spent time on the roster last year. “Running it back”

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      1. We need to think like the other Team in a Jansen trade if we were trading him; 2 lower level prospects. Middle IF hitting .240 in low minors and 26 year old AAA reliever with a 4.70 ERA.

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        1. Yeah….though Dave D has indicated there are ‘no on-going discussions’ with the Sox or any other team for BP arms in a trade.
          So for now he seem to have settled on the current BP guys on the 40

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      2. Also time to add a bench piece once the market has settled and they see who’s still out there looking for a job.

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  34. Just put MLB Network on and they have a Kickoff College Softball game being played In Clearwater. The point I was going to make is it sure looks like nice weather there. I have no idea how many games are on TV over the weekend or where this is in relation to where the Phillies train. Just an FYI.

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  35. Romus…and others. Seeing Feisand is reporting that most likely Phillies and Wheeler agree on a short-term extension this Spring. Saying it will be like Scherzer and Verlander deals possibly around the 40M AAV amount.
    Romus you said it may be a high AAV. 40M would be high. If 3 years he may get more than his current deal at this time.

    Like

    1. Don…….if it is a three year extended deal, his last year will be his age37 year-2027.
      So a high AAV for those extended years looks to be the key.
      Whether or not it is $40M remains to be seen…..IMO it will be higher than $35M.

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  36. Here is just a projection for FYI. Late possible signings.
    1. Snell-Angels 5 years 145M
    2. Bellinger-Blue Jays 5 years 115M
    3. Martinez-Cubs 1 year 15.5M
    4. Soler-Giants 2 years 28M
    5. Montgonery-Angels 3 years 57M
    Thought it was interesting that guy was sending both Snell and Montgomery land with Angels. Guy may be a Angel’s writer. I did not know the name. My question to anyone is what do you feel about these numbers if any are near accurate?

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  37. Romus…I am sure the dollars will be high for Wheeler. I am watching IU vs Purdue. IU at least hanging in tonight. Couple weeks ago, was blowout.
    Jim…I just see getting on now another article by FanSide list 5 possible suitors for Montgomery. Phillies are listed and they use Nightengale as a source.
    1. Rangers
    2. Red Sox
    3. Giants
    4. Phillies
    5. Angels.
    Believe that was order. One earlier had Angels as most likely spot.

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  38. Just FYI to all. Seeing now that MLB analyst Jensen Lewis thinks Snell has good chance to land with Phillies. Jim if the numbers 5 years and 145M from yesterday are in the ballpark is that something Phillies would even consider? I never heard what he was looking for initially. Again, this was just posted today. So, any thoughts. I am not a huge Snell fan, but he is good.

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    1. The Jensen Lewis I know is the pre-game/post-game analyst for the Guardians. Kind of like Ricky Bottalico without the actual baseball cred. Not someone I’m going to listen to about free agent rumors.

      Regarding Snell and 5/145, I don’t think he is the type of pitcher they would consider giving a long-term contract. I thought I posted this earlier. If I did, apologies.

      The only free agent pitchers the Phillies gave more than THREE years were –

      (Player: Position, Age, Terms, Years, AAV, Partner/PoBO/GM)
      Nola: rhp-s, 31, 7/$172M, 2024-2030, $24.57M AAV, Middleton/Dombrowski/Fuld
      Wheeler: rhp-s, 30, 5/$118M, 2020-2024, $23.6M AAV, Middleton/MacPhail/Klentak
      Walker: rhp-s, 30, 4/$72M, 2023-2026, $18M AAV, Middleton/Dombrowski/Fuld
      Papelbon: rhp-c, 31, 4/$50M, 2012-2015, $12.5M AAV, Giles/Amaro
      Lee: lhp-s, 32, 5/$120M, 2011-2015, $24M AAV, Giles/Amaro

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