2023-24 Offseason Roster and Payroll Information

Other Stuff

It is that time of year when every fan of a baseball team becomes its general manager (or president of baseball operations) and begins recommending or endorsing roster moves to prepare for the next season.

This annual exercise includes guessing how many and which free agents will be pursued, how much money is available to sign them, which arbitration-eligible players will/should be tendered offers, who gets qualifying offers, which pre-arbitration players should be tendered contracts, which players should the organization consider acquiring through trades, and which players should the Phillies try to trade.

We learned during the past two offseasons that there are no spending limits on our PoBO.  To his credit, the managing partner, John Middleton, has given Dave Dombroski a free hand in acquiring any player deemed a positive asset in getting to and winning in the postseason.

The sections below will break down how I arrived at how much money the Phillies have available below the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold, what decisions they might make with their current roster, and which players or types of players they might target during free agency.

Here is the consolidation of those figures.  The breakdown for each follows below.

This will be pinned on the site for a couple weeks.

Summary of Available Money

  • 2024 CBT threshold ……………………………. $237,000,000 (for 40 players)
  • Sunk Costs:          $      20,916,667   (includes 14 of the 40-man spots)
  • Guarantees:         $   175,565,675   (10 contracts/10 players)
  • Options:                $         1,000,000   (buyout)
  • Arbitration:          $      17,900,000   (6 of 8 tendered)
  • Pre-Arb:                 $        5,180,000   (6 at league minimum)
  • Total Costs:          $   220,562,342
  • Available Under the CBT threshold ……….. $16,437,658

The Phillies, who aren’t likely to shy away from paying the Luxury Tax penalty for players they think will improve their chance at a World Series trophy, will probably look to add a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher and a high-leverage reliever.  Adding to or upgrading their bench mix is probably a secondary objective.

In the coming days, decisions by players and the organization will determine which vacancies will need to be filled on the active roster, the 40-man roster, and the upper minors.

Sunk Costs

Sunk costs are the costs the organization incurs that are not directly related to player acquisition and payroll.  They are predictable and recurring.

The Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold sets the maximum that a team can spend before penalties are levied, the Luxury Tax.  The amount is agreed upon by the players and owners as part of the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA).  For the 2024 season, the CBT threshold is $237,000,000.

The Phillies, and all teams, will have expenditures that do not have specific players attached to them.  These costs do not count against salary but do count against the CBT threshold.  These will effectively lower the dollars available to sign players.

The first sunk cost is the team’s portion of player benefits.  This is determined by calculating the total payroll throughout the major leagues and dividing by thirty (the number of franchises).  This figure goes up each year.  Each team’s estimated contribution for the 2024 season is $17,000,000.

The second sunk cost is the estimated salary for the minor league players on the 40-man roster.  That’s 14 players.  The estimate for the 2024 season is $2,250,000.

The newest sunk cost is the team’s contribution to the “zero-to-three-year” bonus pool.  The Phillies’ (and each team’s) share amounts to $1,666,667.

So, that’s an estimate of $20,916,667 that counts against the CBT threshold and doesn’t add a player to the active roster.  That bite out of the CBT threshold leaves $216,083,333 under the threshold to fill 26 active roster spots.

Guaranteed Contracts

The Phillies go into the offseason with ten players having guaranteed contracts for the 2024 season.

  1. Bryce Harper enters the 6th year of a 13-year contract ($330M (19-31)). It’ll be his age-31 season.  2024 salary is $27,538,462.  Luxury Tax salary is $25,384,615.
  2. Trea Turner enters the 2nd year of an 11-year contract ($300M (23-33)). It’ll be his age-31 season.  2024 salary is $27,272,727.  Luxury Tax salary is $27,272,727.
  3. JT Realmuto enters the 4th year of a 5-year contract ($115.5M (21-25)). It’ll be his age-33 season.  2024 salary is $23,875,000.  Luxury Tax salary is $23.1M.
  4. Zack Wheeler enters the 5th year of a 5-year contract ($118M (20-24)). It’ll be his age-34 season.  2024 salary is $23,500,000.  Luxury Tax salary is $23.6M.
  5. Nick Castellanos enters the 3rd year of a 5-year contract ($100M (22-26)).  It’ll be his age-32 season.  2024 salary is $20,000,000.  Luxury Tax salary is $20M.
  6. Kyle Schwarber enters the 3rd year of a 4-year contract ($79M (22-25)). It’ll be his age-31 season.  2024 salary is $20,000,000.  Luxury Tax salary is $19.75M.
  7. Taijuan Walker enters the 2nd year of a 4-year contract ($72M (23-26)). It’ll be his age-31 season.  2024 salary is $18,000,000.  Luxury Tax salary is $18,000,000.
  8. Jose Alvarado enters the 2nd year of a 3-year contract ($22M (23-25)). It’ll be his age-29 season.  2024 salary is $9,016,667.  Luxury Tax salary is $7,333,333.
  9. Matt Strahm enters the 2nd year of a 2-year contract ($15M (23-24)). It’ll be his age-32 season.  2024 salary is $7,500,000.  Luxury Tax salary is $7,500,000.
  10. Seranthony Dominguez enters the 2nd year of a 2-year contract ($7.25M (23-24)). It’ll be his age-29 season.  2024 salary is $4,250,000.  Luxury Tax salary is $3,625,000.

These ten contracts account for a total salary of $180,952,856 but only $175,565,675 counts against the CBT threshold.

The contracts and costs stated above leave the Phillies $40,517,658 under the CBT threshold to fill 16 active roster spots.

Player Options

Scott Kingery is the only player with a contract that has an option for the upcoming season.  I think we all can agree that the Phillies will decline his $13,000,000 option and pay the $1,000,000 buyout.

The Phillies have no other players with options for the 2024 season.

Seranthony Dominguez has an $8M option for the 2025 season and Jose Alvarado has a $9M option for the 2026 season.  Both have $500K buyouts.  But, none of this factors directly into the 2024 season.

The buyout stated above leaves the Phillies $39,517,658 under the CBT threshold to fill 16 active roster spots.

Arbitration Eligible Players

The Phillies have 8 players who are eligible for arbitration.  Last year the Phillies avoided arbitration with all 7 players who were eligible.  One (Yairo Munoz) was non-tendered. Two (Alvarado and Dominguez) received multi-year contracts.  And, four came to terms (Rhys Hoskins, Ranger Suarez, Sam Coonrod, and Edmundo Sosa).

The arbitration estimates below are taken from MLB Trade Rumors.

  1. Gregory Soto (4.102) had a 2023 salary of $3,925,000 and enters his second of three arbitration years, going into his age 29 season.  Arbitration estimate  $4,900,000.
  2. Ranger Suarez (4.112) had a 2023 salary of $2,950,000 and enters his second of three arb years, going into his age 28 season.  Arbitration estimate  $4,700,000.
  3. Alec Bohm (3.106) had a 2023 salary of $748,000 and enters his first of three arbitration years, going into his age 27 season.  Arbitration estimate $4,300,000.
  4. Jeff Hoffman (5.084) had a 2023 salary of $1,300,000 and enters his final year of arbitration, going into his age 31 season.  Arbitration estimate $2,100,000.
  5. Edmundo Sosa (3.140) had a 2023 salary of $950,000 and enters his second of four arbitration years, going into his age 28 season.  Arbitration estimate $1,700,000.
  6. Jake Cave (4.071) had a 2023 salary of $950,000 and enters his third of four arb years, going into his age 31 season.  Arbitration estimate $1,400,000.
  7. Dylan Covey (3.138) had a 2023 salary of $507,101 and enters his first of three arbitration years, going into his age 32 season.  Arbitration estimate $1,000,000.
  8. Garrett Stubbs (3.120) had a 2023 salary of $741,000 and enters his first of three arbitration years, going into his age 31 season.  Arbitration estimate $900,000.

I can see an alternate world where all eight players are tendered contracts.  And, if that were to occur, I would expect all eight to accept a tender if offered.  However, it’s more likely that a couple will be non-tendered.

It’s noteworthy (to me at least) that the lowest estimates are not so far above the league minimum of $740K to make it automatic that the lowest two are not tendered.

The Phillies might consider extending Suarez and perhaps Bohm.  If not, they’ll certainly be tendered.

Given the state and cost of pitching around the league Hoffman, Soto, and Covey might all be tendered.  I know a lot of you don’t like Covey.  But, the Phillies obviously see something.  Just like they see something in Rodolfo Castro.  Soto, a two-time All-Star (2021 and 2022), is likely a bargain at an arbitration price under $4M.  Hoffman was very effective in low-leverage roles and eventually was being inserted into high-leverage settings.  Covey pitched well in his role as long-man out of the bullpen, well enough that the Phillies might tender him at just $1M.  A healthy Nick Nelson might challenge for the role next season.

Sosa provides a competent backup around the infield.  However, the Phillies went to extremes carrying Castro on the active roster to preserve his remaining option.  The free-swinging Sosa is out of options.  Castro is a switch-hitting utility infielder.  Scouts at the Complex complimented the Phillies on the acquisition, stating that along with his positional flexibility Castro has power from both sides of the plate.  Castro’s presence creates a duplication in the bench role.  But, his relative inexperience at the major league level might indicate that a stint in AAA is warranted.  Still, Sosa might be a possible non-tender.

Cave had a decent offensive month in August, but cratered in September (6 for 43).  He supplied starts at 1B and the corner OF positions.  A healthy Harper is going to create fewer opportunities for Cave to get into a game.  The Phillies can probably do better in free agency.  Another possible non-tender.

Stubbs is an integral part of the team.  I know some of you like Rafael Marchan.  I know that a lot of you are impressed with the offensive numbers Marchan put up at Lehigh Valley in 2023.  But, in his last full season at AAA, Stubbs put up similar numbers to Marchan’s numbers.  So, there’s no reason to expect Marchan to post significantly better offense than Stubbs at the major league level playing once a week.  If they’re a push on offense, Stubbs has the edge since he’s the better catcher.  Pitchers like throwing to him.  That’s important even if only used once a week.  So, yes, I’m saying Stubbs will be on the active roster next season.  Marchan will likely be traded before opening day.  Or, vice versa.  Honestly, Stubbs’s major league experience and healthier track record are probably more to the PoBO’s liking.

Assuming the Phillies tender or reach an agreement with all but Cave and Sosa, they will commit about $17,900,000 to sign six more players.  That would leave an estimated $21,617,658 to fill 10 active roster spots.

Pre-Arbitration, Cost-Controlled Players

The minimum salary in 2023 was $720,000.  The Phillies had agreements with most of their pre-arbitration players for slightly more than that amount (some as high as $748K).  The minimum salary in 2024 is $740,000.  The pre-arbitration players on the active roster will receive that amount or a little above depending on how the Phillies calculate their raises.

A good portion of the remaining ten spots on the active roster will be filled from within the organization with these affordable, cost-controlled, pre-arbitration players.  This group includes the remainder of the 40-man roster (20 players) – Andrew Bellatti, Connor Brogdon, Orion Kerkering, Yunior Marte, McKinley Moore, Nick Nelson, Luis Ortiz, Michael Plassmeyer, Cristopher Sanchez, Erich Uelmen, Rafael Marchan, Rodolfo Castro, Kody Clemens, Darick Hall, Bryson Stott, Weston Wilson, Brandon Marsh, Simon Muzziotti, Christian Pache, Johan Rojas.

The players most likely to be considered for the active roster are Kerkering, Sanchez, Castro, Stott, Marsh, Pache, and Rojas.  Although, I don’t think we should be surprised if Kerkering and Rojas (and maybe even Castro) start the season at Lehigh Valley for seasoning.  I wouldn’t do it, but, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Phillies consider something like that.

Sanchez has earned a spot in the starting rotation.  Marsh and Stott are solid starters in the everyday lineup.  As stated above Kerkering, Rojas, and Castro could spend the start of the season in AAA.  Pache is out of options and will likely be on the active roster in a bench role.

We saw that Kerkering ran out of steam in the playoffs.  He would benefit from attending one of the High-Performance Camps.  But, as a major leaguer, he can’t be made to attend a minor league player development function.  They were worried that his stamina would not last through the playoffs.  indeed, some in player development wanted to shut him down before he was advanced to Lehigh Valley.  They thought McKinley Moore would be a better option.  He had spent two hitches on the IL and had pitched well at Reading and in his one AAA appearance.  He had only racked up about 20 innings but also hadn’t been asked to pitch on consecutive days.

Rojas does know how to bunt.  I’ve seen him do it in the minors.  But, I believe he would benefit from a little seasoning in AAA.  I think he needs to control his swing.  I’m sure you’ve all seen him swing hard and his momentum carries him across the plate.  He has to find his balance and maintain it through his swing.  Needs a Bagger Vance.  Rojas to Triple-A is Pache’s best route to the active roster, especially if Harper remains at 1B and Schwarber remains the full-time DH.

Castro is just 24 years old.  Dombrowski may be hesitant to rely on him coming off the bench.  He has that one option left.  Maybe they decide to keep Sosa and send Castro to Lehigh Valley?

Some of the remaining thirteen players will be tendered to fill out the 40-man roster.  Some will be non-tendered (or tendered and released) to make room on the 40-man roster for new acquisitions.  I would think that some of the pitchers might be safe until they find clear upgrades preferably with an option.  I think Bellatti, Moore, Nelson, and Plassmeyer will be tendered.  Brogdon, Marte, Ortiz, and Uelmen are likely at risk of being non-tendered.  I think Marchan will be tendered but is a potential trade piece before the end of spring training.  (This changes if he does get a 4th option.) I think Clemens, Hall, and Wilson are depth pieces that the Phillies would like to keep with Wilson having a real chance at making the active roster as a bench piece.  I think Muzziotti is non-tendered (even with his extra option) with all the quick, young, quality defensive center fielders blocking him.

It seems reasonable to expect that six or seven of the above pre-arbitration players could be tendered and placed on the active roster.  Let’s assume seven.  That would be a minimum of $5,180,000 against the CBT threshold.  That leaves the Phillies with $16,437,658 under the threshold to fill 3 active roster spots.

Free Agents

As stated above in the Options Section, Scott Kingery will undoubtedly become a free agent when the Phillies decline his $13,000,000 option and pay a $1,000,000 buyout.

Among players on the 40-man roster, pitchers Craig Kimbrel, Michael Lorenzen, Aaron Nola, and first baseman Rhys Hoskins are free agents.  Nola will likely receive a qualifying offer.  Hoskins will likely not.

Any arb and pre-arb players who are not tendered become free agents.  Among the arb guys, Sosa is out of options and is essentially made redundant by Rodolfo Castro who has an option remaining.  Cave is a left-handed hitting outfielder/first baseman who is out of options.  Covey is out of options but is a pitcher in whom the Phillies have seen something.  Any of these players may be non-tendered, although I think they’ll hold onto Covey, at least through the spring.

Among the pre-arb players, pitcher Andrew Bellatti, catcher Rafael Marchan, and outfielder Simon Muzziotti are out of options unless Marchan and Muzziotti are granted a 4th option.  The Phillies skipped over Muzziotti to promote Johan Rojas.  I think Muzziotti is done in this organization regardless.  Bellatti is a pitcher with some value.  The lack of an option is a concern.

So far, the Phillies’ active and 40-man rosters might look like this through the offseason (those in bold text are those whom I expect to be on the active roster) –

  • SP: Wheeler, Walker, Sanchez, Suarez,
  • RP: Alvarado, Bellatti, Covey, Dominguez, Hoffman, Kerkering, Moore, Nelson, Plassmeyer, Soto, Strahm,
  • C: Realmuto, Stubbs, Marchan
  • INF: Bohm, Castro, Clemens, Hall, Harper, Stott, Turner, Wilson
  • OF: Castellanos, Marsh, Pache, Rojas,
  • DH: Schwarber
  • On the Fence: Brogdon, Marte, Ortiz, Uelmen, Sosa, Cave, Muzziotti

Notes on the above:

  1. Obviously need a starting pitcher for the active roster.
  2. They will need some reliable SP depth at Lehigh Valley.
  3. At some point during the season, Mick Able should be the first man up.  Maybe Christian McGowan.  Either/Both will need a 40-man spot if/when that time arrives.
  4. Need a back-end, high-leverage reliever for the active roster.
  5. There should be enough internal depth options for RP help, but I wouldn’t mind acquiring another strong, experienced BP arm.
  6. A lot of positions are set –
    1. Catcher is set no matter whether Stubbs or Marchan is the backup.
    2. If Castro takes on the Sosa role, the infield is set – Harper, Stott, Turner, Bohm.
    3. Four outfield spots are set – Castellanos, Marsh, Rojas, Pache. (assuming Rojas makes the opening day roster)
    4. Schwarber is entrenched at DH.
    5. The bench has an opening.  The backup catcher, Castro, and Pache seem to have spots.  A multi-positional infielder/outfielder will come from free agency unless the Phillies opt to promote someone like Wilson.
  7. Brogdon was among the league leaders for inherited runners scored when he was demoted.  He wasn’t even considered as a late-season call-up.  I’m afraid the organization may value his 40-man spot more than keeping him around.
  8. Marte and Ortiz bounced back and forth from the active roster this season.  They could be non-tender targets.
  9. Uelmen spent a lot of time on the Injury List.  The Phillies may decide to keep him around to see how he responds to rehab or just cut bait.
  10. I would like to see Hall traded or released rather than watch him spend another season at Lehigh Valley.  I still think he’s the best first baseman in the entire organization.  But, I don’t see him getting a chance now that Harper is the first baseman.  I’d like to see him get a chance in another organization.
  11. The quality of free-agent starting and relief pitchers this offseason will help determine which pitchers are tendered and which are not.  The importance of options could also come into play.

In addition to the four major league free agents, there could be as many as 25 minor league free agents.  Maybe more.

Free Agent Targets

At this point, the Phillies still have 2-3 spots to fill on the active roster.  These openings are likely to be filled by free agents.  The targets most likely sought through free agency are a starting pitcher to replace Nola (or Nola himself), a backend reliever to replace Kimbrel (even more pitching is always nice if they wish to upgrade the bullpen even more), and a bench player (to replacer Cave, maybe Wilson).  Remember, Castro is likely filling Sosa’s spot.

I have collected the season stats for all the potential free agents listed on MLBTR.  The pitchers are listed by ERA+.  I don’t know how valuable ERA+ is as a statistic (in fact I don’t have much faith in all the nerdy new stats like WAR, DRS, …).  It lists Nola as having an ERA plus of 96.  That doesn’t sound like a stat that would command 8/$200M.

The SP I like is Jordan Montgomery.  He is ineligible for a QO.  I understand the Phillies are interested in a Japanese SP not named Yamamoto.  We’ll see how that goes.  I find Snell’s 99 walks in 180 innings scary (BB9 of 5.0, yikes).

Hader is the cream of the RP crop.  I don’t know that I would give a relief pitcher a long-term contract of 3 or more years at the AAV he is going to command.  Trevor May announced his retirement.  Pierce Johnson has re-signed with Atlanta.  There aren’t that many pure closers available.  After Hader’s 33 saves, Kimbrel had the next highest number of saves at 23.  Will Smit had 2 but his numbers are worse than Kimbrels.  Robertson had 14 but he’s 39 years old.  How about Jordan Hicks and his 12 saves?  I have to admit that I keep coming back to Hector Neris.  But, he has an $8.5M player option.  If he opts out, he’s going to expect a better salary, I would think, and more years.

2024 Free Agent Pitchers

The position players are grouped by position but not sorted by any stat.  I think they are alphabetical.  I don’t expect to be spending free agent money on anything but pitchers.  I’m supplying them for reference.

2024 Free Agent Position Players

 

 

Trades

The Phillies don’t have to rely on free agency to fill out their active roster or to upgrade other positions.  Their top trade chips on the active roster are probably Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm because of their youth, team control, and up-and-coming bats.  But trading either creates a hole in the lineup and loses a low-cost player.

I know that trading Nick Castellanos is a popular topic.  I was disillusioned by his play last season.  But, I have to admit that my feelings toward Castellanos softened during last season’s playoffs.  I’m not in favor of trading him now.  He had a nice bounce-back season, played well in the first two rounds of this year’s playoffs, is great at mentoring the young outfielders, gets Philadelphia, and gives excellent interviews.  Maybe now that Miami “fired” Ng, they would welcome him to his hometown team.  I don’t believe the Phillies should have to eat a large part of his salary.  I also think that replacing his offensive production would be difficult.  He was also recruited by the GM-in-uniform so I don’t know how that would be accepted.

 

Minor League Free Agents (24)

After the Phillies activated all 40-man roster players, 30 players remained on the Lehigh Valley roster.

Seventeen players will be free agents either because they have fulfilled their UPC requirement of seven years – Crouse, Hernandez, Jones, Toffey, Hicklen, and Parkinson – or because they were acquired on a second contract on a one- or two-year deal that has been completed – Anderson, Bowden, Hutchison, Perez, Phillips, Vines, Walker, Garcia, Haley, Podkul, and Peterson.

Two players – Quiroz and Stevenson – are likely free agents since it appears they signed one-year, second contracts before being acquired by the Phillies.

One player – Kingery – will reach free agency when his #13M option is undoubtedly declined.

Ten players on the roster are not subject to any action.  They are under team/organization control and will likely return to AAA unless released – Abel, Lehman, McGarry, McGowan, McKay, Schulze, Skirrow, Friscia, Roberts, and Kroon.

There are an additional 12 players below Triple-A to be considered, six are FA, six are R% eligible.

Six players have reached free agency – Haake, Glendinning, and Ward have completed free agent contracts – and Sanchez, Ortiz, and Mezquita have completed their UPC.

One player – De La Cruz – has a year left on his UPC (although signed in 2017, he wasn’t added to a roster until 2018) but is Rule 5 eligible unless placed on the 40-man roster.  He may be the only prospect who is so placed.

One player – Dunn – who was selected in last year’s Rule 5 draft and selected to represent the Phillies in the Arizona Fall League will surely be placed on the AAA roster to avoid selection during the AAA portion of the Rule 5 draft.

Three players – Hernandez, Betancourt, and Gomez – signed their UPCs in 2017 but were not added to rosters until 2018.  Therefore, they each have one year remaining on their current UPC before becoming free agents.  This practice of future contracts has been ended in the current MiLB CBA.

One player – Martinez – has a year remaining on his UPC but was selected during last year’s Rule 5 draft.  The decision here is whether to protect him from or expose him to the upcoming Rule 5 draft.

Rule 5 Candidates

This is just a list of first-time and repeat eligibles.  No predictions at this point although none really jump out.  Remember that last year the Phillies left seven Triple-A roster spots open and selected 7 players (plus Noah Song) during the draft while losing five. Three of the players remain in the organization.  Song was returned and 4 were released.

The first-timers (30) –

  • LHP: Samuel Aldegheri, Jordan Fowler
  • RHP: Noah Skirrow, Blake Brown, Gunner Mayer, Jean Cabrera, Eiberson Castellano, Jonathan Petit, Giussepe Velasquez, Ezequiel Ventura, Luis Alcala, Javier Fuenmayor, Oswald Medina
  • Catchers: Andrick Nava, Jose Colmenarez, Jorge Mendez, Jackie Pertuz, Brahian Silva
  • Infielders: Casey Martin, Erick Brito, Diego Gonzalez, Jehisbert Sevilla, Fernando Hernandez, Jarol Martinez
  • Outfielders: Marcus Lee Sang, Baron Radcliff, Leandro Pineda, Ricardo Rosario, Jose Leanez, Jhailyn Ortiz

The second-timers (21)

  • LHP: Erubiel Armenta, Gabriel Cotto, Josh Hendrickson, Rafael Marcano, Jordi Martinez
  • RHP:  Starlyn Castillo, Carlos A. Francisco, Adam Leverett, Dominic Pipkin, Andrew Schultz, Brett Schulze, Eduar Segovia
  • Catchers: Arturo De Freitas, Vito Friscia, Herbert Iser, Cody Roberts
  • Infielders: Chris Cornelius, Wilfredo Flores, Kendall Simmons, Rixon Wingrove
  • Outfielder: Cal Stevenson

The three-timers (7) –

  • LHP: Keylan Killgore, Taylor Lehman
  • RHP: Tyler McKay
  • Infielders: Matt Kroon, Madison Stokes
  • Outfielders: Carlos De La Cruz

Random Facts

Last year’s qualifying offer (QO) was $19,650,000.  This year it is expected to be around $20.5M.

The minimum salary for 2024 will be $740K.

A Few Upcoming Important Dates

  • November 2: Trading resumes, the day after the World Series ends
  • November 6: Deadline to make offers to eligible former players who became FA
  • November 16: Deadline for free agents to accept qualifying offers
  • November 18 or 21: Deadline to submit 40-man rosters before Rule 5 Draft
  • December 1: Deadline to offer 2023 contracts to controlled players on the 40
  • December 9: Rule 5 Draft

And, so it begins …

Transactions

10/13/2023 – 3B Drew Ellis elected free agency

 

348 thoughts on “2023-24 Offseason Roster and Payroll Information”

  1. Thank You for all the work, Jim. Our quest to get back to the Playoffs and another chance at the WS has started. It will be an eventful off season. There are not a lot of pieces to add, Closer, Nola or his replacement, an upgrade for the Bench, maybe another BP arm, but the work to accomplish all of that is extensive. As I have posted before, I believe the SP market moves very quickly. Too many teams who view thmselves as WS contenders, us, the Braves, The Dodgers, the Yankees although maybe delusionally, need SP. Hoping my faith in DD is warranted.

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  2. As always and it can never be said enough nobody does this type of coverage better than you Jim 🙂

    DD either blows past the LT for this year/pillages our system/Or piece together with some lower tier FAs.

    Either way they are painted into a corner…

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    1. I think the Phillies will go over the 2024 threshold for a second consecutive year (which means 30% on the overage). However, I don’t think they will go past $257M because there will be a 12% surcharge.

      So using Jim’s numbers, the Phillies will have approximately $36.4M to work with which doesn’t leave a lot left over if the Phillies sign Nola or Snell.

      And before you say it’s not my money, even Steve Cohen has said that “spending a fortune doesn’t guarantee a trip to the playoffs”. According to Cots, the Mets payroll right now is hovering around $250M.

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  3. Based on Rangers’ arb estimate this year, and a guesstimate for his last arb year…….I’d offer him a 5yr/$85M contract thru his age32 season, buying out his two arb years left and tacking on an additonal three.

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  4. ” He was also recruited by the GM-in-uniform so I don’t know how that would be accepted.”….LOL

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  5. Jordan Hicks is the guy I think they’ll pursue as he’s another hard thrower.
    Dunn is another guy who will be a ST with a chance to win a bench job. He’s older but he’s obviously figured some things out.

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    1. I’m high on Jordan Hicks. He throws hard and is still only 27. Now I’m not sure what his contract demands are because the Cardinals didn’t like the numbers his agent was giving them.

      If Hicks wants Robert Suarez money, then I would move on. But I think 3/24 is more than fair for a non-closer.

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      1. Agree with Guru on Jordan Hicks. I thought Dombrowski should have actually made Hicks a priority at the trade deadline. Hicks may have supplanted Kimbrel as Phillies closer by the postseason, and maybe could have been the difference between NLCS loser and NL Pennant winner.

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  6. Great read Jim. I would expect a few trades likely of the minor version but could include some of the out of options/potential non-tenders/fringe players they may want to get some value out of. Maybe trades or moves to pass thru waivers of 2-3 of the below players:
    Andrew Bellatti, Connor Brogdon, Yunior Marte, McKinley Moore, Nick Nelson, Luis Ortiz, Michael Plassmeyer, Erich Uelmen, Rafael Marchan, Rodolfo Castro, Kody Clemens, Darick Hall, Weston Wilson, and Simon Muzziotti.

    Armchair GMs need to get to work here. lol

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  7. Any rumors about Phillies international signings for January? Jesse Sanchez and MLB pipeline don’t rumors teams anymore

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  8. Jim, well done. Informative and well put together.

    I think DD has to trade one of Castellanos or Schwarber. I’d vote to get rid of Castellanos. Think he finished playoffs 0-23. I think we move on with a few keys hits. He’s too streaky and does not put up good at bats. Yes, he has 100+ rbis. However, if he didn’t go ice cold last two years we probably win a World Series. Frustrating guy to watch. Especially, game 7 this year when you know he’s an auto out.

    I thought verlander and scherzer were untradable with those contracts. They ended up bringing back the Mets decent prospects since they ate a lot of money. Essentially buying prospects. Would love to see DD move Castellanos, eat some salary and get something worthwhile back. Let’s play like the big boys.

    With a move like this. I think our D would look much better with Pache and Rojas playing more. I think this move would free us up some. Give top differant options.

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    1. THAT’S THE PROBLEM! On the biggest stage, in the biggest games, Castellanos can often be an automatic out. You just can’t have that. They should move him. If he’s not hitting a lot, he has negative value due to his bad fielding. Someone will want him and maybe they have to eat a little salary, but they need to free up that position. We are a better team with Harper in right and Hoskins (or another big first base bat) at first.

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      1. Agree.
        However both have had poor defensive metrics at their respective positions…. and their career slash of both is slightly trending towrds Hoskins I would think.
        Castellanos…..276/324/475
        Hoskins………..242/353/492
        My reservation…is Harper in RF again and blowing out his arm again.
        Tha would be a concern for me.
        Rather have Harper at first base…he adapted fairly well on the fly.

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        1. Agree Romus they are not a better team with Harper in RF and Hoskins at 1b. Harper is already better at 1b than Hoskins and he will continue to improve with more time there.

          I have no issues with moving Castellanos to improve the roster but replacing him with Hoskins doesn’t make them better, it replaces one streaky hitter who plays sub-par defense with another.

          The myth of Hoskins being a playoff performer is based on 1 bat spike. How did he hit in the WS vs. Houston? 3-25 with 1 walk and 10 strikeouts. That was after a 4-18 stretch vs. SD and 4-17 vs. Atl. So on the biggest stage, he went 11-60 (.183).

          If they move Castellanos the replacement needs to be another OF with better contact skills.

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          2. You’re right on. Hoskins and castellanos very similar. So frustrating to watch. Be happy to move on from both. Addition by subtraction.

            Like

      2. I’d be good with Hoskins, but would also be okay with Harper at first and someone other than Castellanos in RF. In my view, Castellanos is a liability who needs to be moved.

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  9. Jim, your reads are the best!
    I love this time of the year better than any time, if we are not winning the WS. I don’t go to bed thinking about how we could have won the game that day.
    I think Nola would be the best piece compared to the rest, Jordan Hicks would be a big pickup, Stubbs & Sosa remain as not to offer- use subs, and Weston Wilson is part of the team next year.
    Always love Hoskins and wish we could keep him, but don’t a repeat of 2012.

    Thanks again Jim, keep up the good work.

    Like

  10. Oh boy, the Braves just gave Joe Jimenez 3/26 as a non-closer. They just messed up the reliever market. That means Jordan Hicks will likely command 3/30 now.

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    1. That’s not out of line for a back-end reliever. Phillies are paying Alvarado $9m per season as a non-closer and Strahm 7.5.

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      1. Jimenez’s WAR was 0.9 which is decent for a reliever but not elite. Compare that to Jeff Hoffman who had 2.0 WAR and would have gotten paid if he was a FA.

        That means any decent reliever could ask for that range and it’s bringing up the cost of relievers. The relievers coming off an elite year could ask for more. This is problematic because relievers can easily have good/bad years.

        The Padres ridiculously gave Robert Suarez 3/30 AND 2 player options after he posted 1.4 WAR. He then gave the Padres 0 WAR this past season.

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        1. Might be true if teams based their decisions simply by looking at WAR and nothing else. Fairly certain that’s not the case.

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          1. They are not only looking at WAR, there’s always projection involved. The Braves are hoping that he will give them more than 0.9 WAR per year in this contract. But the other agents will say Jimenez got 3/26 with 0.9 WAR, my client is comparable and deserve to get a similar contract…

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            1. After I was done laughing at the agent for trying to use WAR as a selling point for his client, I would then point to Hector Neris getting 2/$17M and putting up a 2.5 WAR season and note that your client wasn’t that good so he deserves less.

              WAR just isn’t the gold standard for measuring players that some seem to think it is. Watch which FA’s get paid this off-season and see how closely it tracks to their WAR.

              Aaron Nola was a 2 WAR pitcher and is going to get north of $25m per season while Sonny Gray was a 5+ WAR guy and will get nowhere close to the same AAV.

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            2. Aaron Nola (age 30) has a history of durability and good WAR seasons on his side. His agent can say that this past season was an outlier season.

              Sonny Gray (who’s going to be 34 in November) is a lot older and has had recent injury plagued seasons.

              It’s obvious that WAR won’t be used primarily in these deals nor should they.

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  11. If Caleb Cotham thinks Hicks is as good as we think he is, then 3/$30M is not a problem to sign him. The problem is how many other teams are in on him and what that drives the price to. And I am much more in on a FA than a trade. There are prospects, Crawford, Miller, Abel, that I am just not trading. And, some combination of Muzzioti, Marchan, McGarry and Hall are just not getting us that Closer.

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    1. If it doesn’t hurt to trade a prospect, then that prospect is not as good as you think he is and other teams know it. All the other teams will be asking for Crawford/Miller/Abel as expected.

      Muzziotti, Marchan, and especially Hall have minimal trading value. McGarry has some value but he’s going to go for pennies on the dollar. In that case, you might as well just keep him.

      Like

  12. The Guardians need an outfielder with power, and it seems like they want to trade Bieber. If Phillies willing to eat salary, sounds like like a match to me.

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    1. If I was the Guardians GM, I wouldn’t do this. I would rather dangle Bieber to the DBacks and try to get Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

      Like

        1. You are right, BR has him as a FA in 2025.

          This works out better for the Guardians as they can sign Lourdes to a FA contract and trade Bieber for other needs.

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    2. Bieber has two more years control, which is good…..but 2023 was not one of his better pitcing performances…. his SO/9 is trending the wrong way.
      And that may be because his velo is slowly dropping off his FB:
      2020….94.26
      2021….93.01
      2022….91.57
      2023….91.59
      If you ask him to be a number two behind Wheeler, that could be dicey

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  13. I’d really like to see the Phillies non-tender Sosa and Stubbs and replace them from within the organization with Wilson and Marchan. Sosa’s game on both sides of the ball declined last season and Stubbs is basically the team’s backup mascot since Realmuto played so much.

    Marchan gives them an option to play 40 games or so (he really needs to play a lot, though, to stay sharp) and he is a very good defensive catcher. Wilson has pop, speed, and versatility. He also has a lot of swing and miss but so did Sosa. I can’t see them bringing Sosa back.

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  14. I think you may see Wilson replace Jake Cave, ciada, but I think Stubbs is the back up C, and Sosa is back. I think they keep Sosa over Castro.

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  15. Boy oh Boy… I just don’t see what the Phillies like in Castro. I’d much rather have Bailey Falter and that’s not saying much. Castro is versatile, yes but he’s not a great fielder nor is he a good hitter. He looks to me like Steve Jeltz in new packaging. Send him to AAA and see if he does anything. He should not be anywhere near a roster with Championship aspirations.

    Agree with Jordan Hicks. I think he’s one to go after. He won’t command Hader money and he could, along with Alvarado, Seranthony, Straham, Soto and Hoffman, help shorten games. That would be a pretty strong bullpen.

    I wonder why the Phillies would not be in on Yamamoto?

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    1. The Phillies should absolutely be in on Yamamoto. But the biggest issue is that the Phillies are not a destination for Asian players. There are a lot of other teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Blue Jays) who have a long history with Asian players. I think the Phillies will have to overpay significantly to get Yamamoto.

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      1. Yamamaoto has indicated no geographical preference, but he has said he’d like to play for a major market team. The game plan to bring him to Philly (if they don’t sign Nola) should be a front loaded contract with an early opt out (maybe after 2nd or 3rd year).

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    2. I believe Middleton/Dombrowski are willing to spend up to 277M. That would only cost them tax money penalties. Anything more than 277M would result in their first draft pick dropping 10 spots. According to Jim’s numbers, the club can spend ~57M this winter thru next summer’s trade deadline. Dombrowski can do a lot with 57M. I don’t put anything past him. Wouldn’t even be shocked to see someone like Brandon Marsh used to bring back a controllable SP if they need to go that route. Not predicting Marsh will be traded. Just not ruling it out.

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      1. Man, I think trading Brandon Marsh would a horrible idea. He’s already nearly a 4 WAR player and if develops any meaningful power, boom, he’s a star. He’s not far off right now.

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        1. Let me say a little more on Marsh.

          I was as down on the Marsh trade as anyone here for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that O’Hoppe could be a generational catcher, which is a very rare commodity.

          But Marsh has proven me wrong. And if the goal is to win championships I’d be very, very hesitant to let him go. During the postseason, Marsh had consistently better at bats than a lot of the stars. He stayed within himself and made contact and drew walks. We need guys like that who excel in the most extreme situations. Marsh is here, he’s really good and he’s cheap. Unless we get an offer we can’t refuse (and not from the Rays by the way), we should keep him.

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          1. I am with you catch, a big Marsh fan. I do not trade him! He is going to get even better, he will be a GG LF and I want him on my team.

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            1. To be clear … I am not advocating a Brandon Marsh trade. That would break my 83 YO mother’s heart. I am just connecting some dots.

              * Marsh holds a good deal of value
              * Phillies ‘may’ need to replace Nola (& maybe Wheeler 12 months from now)
              * Dombrowski has been non-committal on Marsh getting regular ABs vs LHP

              The Phillies were originally shopping Logan O’Hoppe for a controllable SP last summer. When they couldn’t find a deal, they refocused on a CFer (Marsh).
              What if Dombrowski was able to now use Marsh to land Dylan Cease, Kyle Harrison, Bryan Woo, or any of Miami’s young arms?

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  16. Well there was one Asian player who named his dog “Harper” and it seems the Phillies didn’t even talk to him!

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    1. You’re talking about Yoshida, the LF signed by Boston to a 5/90 deal where he just posted 1.4 WAR. It’s not looking like a good deal for them and his defense is poor which is odd considering that he’s playing in front of the Green Monster.

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  17. Andy – The Phillies see “something” in Castro. That’s why they kept him on the major league roster right up through the end of the season.

    They had to in order to keep him. They could not option him to AAA until the season ended or else they could’ve lost him to waivers.

    Now, he can play the entire next season in LHV as long as he stays on the 40 man roster. Who knows? Maybe he will do well.

    I may be totally wrong (but I’m a dancing fool ala Frank Zappa). If I am incorrect, someone on this site will set me straight.

    Like

    1. Agree Ciada that the Phillies see something there they think they can tap into and as you note, they have all of 2024 in AAA to do so if they want.

      Giving up Falter who is an AAAA level pitcher was a good gamble if they think something is there. If not, no major harm is done.

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  18. Ciada, I totally get why he was kept on the roster until the end of the season. I just don’t understand why he was put on the roster in the first place. The trade made no sense to me. They gave up a starting pitcher (Falter) for a utility infielder who can’t hit. Shake a tree and 5 of them will fall out. I know Falter is no Steve Carlton but he is a starting pitcher and they are much more valuable than utility infielders. The Phillies could have just called up Scott Kingery and got just as much (if not more) production as Castro. I hope I’m wrong and he does well in AAA next year but I just don’t see it.

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    1. You hit the nail on the head……a starter for a utility player just makes no sense…..and a utility player without much of a bat.
      Lefthanded starting pitchers have a way of coming around at some point…even Cole Irvin eventually found his place in a rotation.
      i do not get..Kingery could have gone out there in his last year in a Philly uniform, and gave us what Castro gave the Phillies.

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      1. Are we really going to go around and around about guys like Cole Irvin or Bailey Falter? These guys had little value and no place here going forward. So maybe you didn’t like a trade with one of these guys (I get it), but it’s just not that big of a deal.

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        1. You are kdding me, right!
          Lefthanded starting pitchers have more value than utility players.
          And not a big deal, until the Pirates come in next summer and Falter shuts down the Phillies…I will put wager on that.

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          1. Yeah, your theory about lefty starters has validity . . . When those pitchers don’t stink. Both of these guys, well, kinda stink.

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  19. For those that didn’t see it … what’s your take – thumbs up for yes, down for No

    Phillies Get:
    Trout (sorry Jim)
    RP Carlos Esteʋez
    Cash considerations (let’s say pay down to 23.5 mil per year)

    Angels Get: (looks like a good haul)
    SP Andrew Painter
    SP Griff McGarry
    CF Johan Rojas
    OF Carlos De La Cruz

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  20. Tac – I think a lot of us on this site see Painter as an ace for years to come. At least we hope he will be.

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    1. I hear you – for the record it was a trade proposed by an Angels fan, runs a site. It hurts, so… I thought id see what the group thought. Crazy to think that there is an overpay for one of the greatest players the game has seen.. I get it, near the end of his career.

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    1. Swap out Painter, who is the highest prospect going, Abel? Or is it cut off at McGarry. Likely need to add Miller
      Or Crawford.
      I’m guessing many still say no, which is kind of nuts considering many have him discussed Trout as one of baseball’s Top 10 players. Still I get it, surprising how much the answers have swayed in such a short time. 2 years ago, I think many do a similar deal, minus painter since everyone usually guards against trading the consensus #1 prospect in their system .

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  22. Bellinger is a free agent now…Cubs will need a bat in that lineup……Dombrowski and Fuld should look to see if they will want Castellanos…..especially if Middleton wants to extend a QO to Rhys , who will probably take it.

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    1. That’s a good mixup, and is a move Gillick would make. Instills new blood to help erase the memory of the Dbacks series. Bellinger & Hoskins > Castellanos & Rojas? That’s the only issue I have is if Rojas starts hitting in AAA (I assume he needs to play everyday), there is no room for him in 2024 other than as a 4th OF.

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      1. I would not want Bellinger….his price is too high, and if Hoskins is back,
        Harper goes back to RF…..and then squeezing Bellinger into the lineup becomes an issue….anyway looks like the Giants and Yankees are going to start the bidding for him.
        Cubs though have a half-dozen quality pitching prospects…..try to get one or two of them ….of course the Philies would have to pick up a percentage of Castellano’s remaining conract.

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  23. Very interesting that Kingery is still under Phillies team control despite the team decllining his option. It appears that he is still under control from his first Minor League contract. I did not know that.

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  24. Hector Neris return ? He opted out…He could use his old stationery.
    Thoughts ? Fits nicely into a collective closer strategy.

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    1. All his metrics look good, turns 35…not sure what he will want, 2024 was a team option, assume they elected to move on, so he may settle for $5/6M or less.
      Pressly and Abreu were the Astros main closers…..Neris only saved two games , so he was the 7th or 8th inning set up guy most of the 71 games he was in.
      Phillies should kick the tires at least if the price is right.

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      1. I was always a fan of Neris and he’s coming off a spectacular season of 2.5 WAR. But he’s turning 35 in June and he actually opted out of his deal so he’s expecting a multi year deal. I think the most I would go is 2/15 otherwise I would pass.

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  25. It’s official, the Orix Buffaloes have officially posted Yoshinobu Yamamoto. I do believe DD will put in an offer but I have a feeling that he’s headed to either the Yankees or the Red Sox.

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    1. Here is another, notch down from Yamammoto, but Phillies may be able to offer……30 year old Shōta Imanaga, LHP, Yokohama DeNA BayStars
      ……….Imanaga’s name is familiar, he started against Team USA in the WBC gold medal game. Imanaga was credited with the victory after allowing one earned run in two innings…… Imanaga permitted a HR to Trea Turner, he also showed the baseball world why he’s such a highly regarded starter. He struck out Paul Goldschmidt with a splitter and caught Cedric Mullins looking at a 94-mph FBl on the outside corner….FOX’ Ken Rosenthal reported that U.S. players noticed similarities between Imanaga and Braves Max Fried, due in part to the southpaw’s effectiveness against right-handed batters……MLB teams generally view him as a No. 2 or 3 starter. Yakyu Cosmopolitan (@yakyucosmo) reported last week that 10 teams scouted Imanaga’s most recent start: the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, Phillies, Cubs, Reds, D-backs, Giants and Padres.

      Like

      1. Wow, he’s not the biggest guy, he’s barely bigger than Marcus Stroman. That said, you figure a reasonable contract would be similar to what Kodai Senga got (5/75) so I’m guessing something similar should get it done.

        Like

          1. Shōta Imanaga is interesting, but I just have a hard time seeing the fit with the Phillies. He’s sort of redundant/too similar to Ranger & Cris Sanchez: LH SP3-SP4 w/similar stuff (low 90s FB, CH).
            IMO, Middleton/Dombrowski are going to hunt for a true SP2. I just see that being either Aaron Nola, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, or Tyler Glasnow. I could envision Eduardo Rodriguez as maybe their “break glass in case of emergency” option.

            I look at the BP as the more cloudy situation. Do they go out and acquire a GUY, or do they roll with their ensemble (probably the deepest BP in MLB) & reassess at next summer’s trade deadline.

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            1. Odds are Phillies will probably not sign him, I am not holding my breath…….Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, Rangers and Blue Jays will up the ante for him, and all are very familiar with Japanese negotiations and their respective liaison agents…..and he probably prefers playing where other Japanese pitchers have had success upon their initial arrival to the states and MLB.

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  26. Anyone know how long Kingery is under philles control, huh? One of you guys that know everything, how long?

    Like

    1. Skeet……yes they did did decline, gets $1M,
      ….but he is under a minor league contract, so he will be with the org in 2024.

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      1. Thanks for the claraification on Kingery, appreciate it. Are you ready for this week’s fun, games and surprises?

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        1. LO, yes…….some of the decisions will definetly be of interest….just, may not like them all however.

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          1. Romus,…….do the Phillies and the Eagles share the same ending scripts….like 9th inning and 4th quarter?

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  28. It’s Yamamoto for bust for me. No need for Hader or a high priced reliever. Run it back with the starting offense. Harper at 1b, Casty, Rojas, Marsh in OF. Make minor bench moves, get some RP signings a la Jeff Hoffman, and maybe a AAAA SP or 2 that can provide depth. Getting Yamamoto lays the groundwork for the ultimate prize for me, Roki Sasaki. Oh and get that Japanese chef that Hinkie always talks about. I’m pretty sure everyone likes some type of sushi and tempura.

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  29. sibs – Hoffman is property of the Phillies just like Rojas and Pache are. They don’t need to sign him.

    Like

    1. He means make some minor signings to find another Hoffman.

      Plenty of high upside relievers that can be had for cheap. Just gotta scout the right ones (and get a little lucky).

      Like

  31. I am happy for Wheeler, and I actually think Ranger is an even better defensive Pitcher. I think there will be some moves made quickly. I hope we are ready.

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    1. Ranger again, for the second year in a row, missed the cut-off in innings pitch to qualify. Maybe next year he will be fully healthy for the season and able to qualify.

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  33. Finding another Hoffman would be terrific. Along with Nola or a #2SP to replace him, a Closer, and maybe another BP arm, I think the Bench can use an upgrade.

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  34. Thoughts on Ranger and his conditioning?
    His track record and maybe even from sight, he could be in better shape for the upcoming season.

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    1. Agree with you 💯 %! When he had that no-hitter going this year, I said to myself, “Self, he’s never going to make it.” 5 or 6 is all he’s got. By the way, the only arguments I win are with myself.😄

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      1. Skeet……Ranger is listed now at almost 16 stone, when he was signed a over 11 years ago he was 12 stone soaking wet. We all gain weight as we age…..but agree, he probably should look more into conditioning.

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  35. Not sure if this is true, but Bryce’s camp wants a contract extension? He’s still owed approx. 8/209. Sorry Bryce, big no on extension.

    Like

    1. Well hold up… how would doing so impact his AVV? Knowing him, he may be trying to help. If he hit that hr vs Ari in Gm7 …
      He could have asked for 300.
      Also, how does a player who is retiring impact the payroll? Does it fall off or does the team still gotta take the available payroll hit?

      Like

      1. If the player actually retires with time remaining on the contract, then that money is forfeited and the contract is over.

        But most of the time, if the player still has time on the contract and wants to retire, they work out some type of deal with the team on payment. Last one I remember was Chris Davis of the O’s who agreed to a 3-year payment deferral when he retired with 1 year remaining on the deal.

        In that situation, pretty sure the AAV still counts vs. the team’s luxury tax # since the contract is technically still valid.

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  36. The Phillies claimed Josh Fleming from the Rays.

    And the Padres extended a QO to both Snell and Hader.

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    1. Wonder what the Phillies see in Josh Fleming…sinker pitcher, low 90s and gives up plenty of hits. Granted a lefty, but so far he has not stood out.
      Perhaps back of the rotation guy, or long man.

      Like

  37. I know next to nothing about Josh Fleming, but what I read indicates a 5th SP/BP swingman with decent stuff. Anybody know more? Maybe our Left handed Jeff Hoffman?

    Like

  38. Flemming must be an Ani Kilambi recommendation. He was in Tampa identifying BP talent while Flemming graduated to the big league roster.
    The #s don’t look great. Must be something Kilambi sees the Phillies can work with/develop. To me, LHP is always worth investing in (especially because the Phils have not resourced much draft capital into southpaw pitchers lately).

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  39. The thing about Fleming is that he doesn’t have much swing and miss to his game so his K level is really low. Would you offer Michael Wacha a two or maybe three year deal?

    Like

    1. The Padres didn’t want to give Wacha 2/32 which is a surprise but they are having money issues. Wacha has been a middling pitcher until he hit 30 where he’s now at least decent. But I’m worried that he might regress and a 2 year deal is the max I would go.

      Like

  40. The Good Phight had some interestin ideas in their mock off season. #1, re-signing Nola at 7/$203M, a little steep, but I don’t know if we could replace him for elss. Then a trade with the O’s, Anthony Santander for McGarry and Rincones. Then Ethan Wilson for Colin Selby, and Bobby Dalbec for Connor Brogdon. Santander would add a really good switch hitting bat, I don’t know if the O’s do that, but the rationale is that they have 2 high prospect OFs ready to play. I also think that Selby would be a nice addition but would require more than Wilson. Overall, interestin reading to start off the Hot Stove League.

    Like

    1. I may suffer from heart arrhythmia if Dave Dombrowski gives Aaron Nola 7/200M. But if they really were ok with that kind of money (and I seriously doubt they are), why not spread out the 200M over 9 or 10 years to lower the AAV? It would almost certainly be Aaron’s last contract anyway.

      Like

            1. I’m not saying it’s the wrong move, but I’ve never seen the Phillies take a big gamble in the Asian market, nor have any of the big-name Asian free agents ever, to my knowledge, showed a real interest in playing in Philadelphia. He’s young, so it sounds like a good gamble to me, but it’s not the type of deal that seems likely here.

              Frankly, given that our young pitching studs are power righties and we already have Wheeler, I’d be very good with Blake Snell. He was even better on the road last year than he was in San Diego. Personally, I’d rather have him in our rotation going forward than Aaron Nola. This is about winning playoff games and I think Snell gives us an edge we don’t currently have.

              Like

    2. Unless Marsh is cemented to LF for the next 4/5 years…I would not trade
      Rincones.
      Phillies must see plenty of potential in him sending him to the AFL…which is usually a stepping stone to the majors for most of the players selected.
      His bat could play big in the majors and be ready for the jump up, once he gets another 750 to 1000 minor league ABs under his belt.
      https://www.mlb.com/video/rincones-jr-s-462-foot-home-run

      Like

      1. I like Rincones I also like De La Cruz both are the kind of players where you don’t know what you have until you give them a chance in the MLB.

        But Marsh is my guy I think you can count on him in LF for the next 4-5 years.

        Like

      2. I’m a big fan of Rincones as well. I am not ready to annoint him as the second coming of anything, but he’s a great breakout candidate for 2024 and I just like the whole profile (power potential, outstanding plate discipline, burgeoning power, stolen bases). To me, he’s the guy who could ultimately play in right field and be a really solid corner outfield bat.

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  42. If the team offers 7 years to Nola, by the time 2030 comes around they will be known as the Wheeze Kids with Harper, Turner, and Nola approaching 40 lol. Of course 1983 team went to WS that year and many made it to HOF or at least should have.

    Like

    1. Bob – this not really that funny – it is a problem. One of DD’s biggest failings is his tendency to give out contracts that are far too long (ask the Detroit fans how much they liked the Cabrera contract). I like Trea Turner and he should have another 6 or so good years (if we are lucky), but he contract he signed was insane. You could have 4-5 dead years at the end of that contract. A dead year or two is one thing (think Realmuto) – 4 or 5 years is indefensible.

      Like

      1. Think Realmuto? He’s had no dead years with his contract so far and has 2 years left. Would be great if Turner is still that productive that late in his deal.

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  43. More surprisingly, the Twins offered a QO to Sonny Gray. He’s turning 34 tomorrow and if he likes Minnesota, he might be tempted to take it.

    Like

    1. If you can get Gray for 1 year at $20m it’s a good move. Braves just picked up $20 million option on Morton.

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  44. Michael Mercado from the Rays for Adam Leverett. Any thoughts on who we are getting? He has been added to the 40.

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    1. He’s another attempt at prying an Alvarado away from the Rays. Mercado was very highly regarded in his draft class, and as you can see by his K numbers, he’s got the goods. Just a matter of harnessing it. Much like Alvarado. We can only hope they’ll be even half as successful this time.

      Definitely a shot worth taking. Especially when the only cost is Leverett and some cash. Leverett has been fine, but nothing special based on what I’ve seen. Granted this is the Rays, so maybe he’s a cutter away from being a frontline starter/high leverage reliever and we just don’t see it…

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    2. Rays made him a reliever this year…..he did have Tommy John surgery in 2019. ….between that and the COVID year, he didn’t pitch for two full seasons. He came back in 2021 and 2022 as a starter, but for some reason the Rays decided to take him out of a rotation this past season. As a starter he just did not cut the mustard.

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  46. Love the attempts by Phil’s to find pitching diamonds in the rough – These 2 players today – why not !!! Find that next Hoffman, Alvy, even Bellati who was serviceable- they are out there. Even Marte for that matter !!!

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    1. Lest you forget….Gregory Soto can be listed in that category also.
      Some come via free agency …..some thru trades.
      Hi octane FB pitchers who , when under control, can be devastating o hitters.

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  47. My take on Michael Mercado: Why not?
    The Phillies scouted the SoCal prep ranks pretty hard in 2016. That year, they drafted Mickey Moniak, Gevin Gowdy, and Josh Stephen. Mercado was a HS junior in San Diego at that time. So they got to see plenty of him. Ani Kilambi maybe also had a positive opinion.
    Will be interested to see if the Phillies let him start in AAA or move him right into the BP. As a SP in the Rays system, his control seemed fine. It wasn’t until this season when Tampa shifted him to the pen that his BB #s ballooned. Probably threw harder in shorter stints. It may have affected his ability to repeat his delivery.

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    1. Getting players like Mercado is where one area where the new Phillies management excels. You take a gamble on as many of these high-upside arms as you can. The AAA roster is otherwise filled with nobodies – there is plenty of room to give these guys a chance. If one out of 3 or 4 of these guys pan out, it is totally worth it.

      And speaking of being worth it, it’s time we started paying a little more attention to Oliver Dunn. If you are looking for a guy who might have some upside going forward (starting as a utility guy and then, who knows?), he could be your man. He’s not THAT old (just finished age 25 season) and he’s played some great ball over the last year. Very curious to see how he fares at AAA next year.

      Like

      1. Dunn could be up with the Phillies sooner than later……his AFL performance is a good indication where he is at in his development.
        If he gets out of the gates fast at LHV, come May, if Sosa is struggling in his limited appearances, Dunn could be the guy that is given a chance.

        Like

          1. May be a moot point on Dunn anyways……thru the grapevine, Phillies are getting interest from other clubs on him. He could be on the move this off-season. Does seem Trader Dave D. will make those under- the- radar trades involving role players.

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  48. MLBTrade Rumors has a lengthy thorough write up of FA and their expected cost. They handicap where players may go – conjecture with some national writer guesses as clickbait. However don’t have Phil’s in on much. Think they lose Nola and don’t get any Japanese pitchers. Possible buyer of Snell. One good idea though- Liam Hendricks for ‘25 after his TJ – has a negligible salary.

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    1. This much you can virtually guarantee – the Phillies will sign a big name free agent starting pitcher. DD said that and I believe him. It may be Nola or it may be someone else, but it’s happening. And, really, for them to compete for a title, it has to happen.

      Like

      2. Well the only problem is if you re-sign both Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins then you don’t have that kind of money because they cost a lost especially Aaron Nola.

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  49. There is not a chance that we lose Nola and the number is 6/$150M. That was the unanimous vote of the 3 guys doing the MLBTR musical chairs. And all of them have him going to the Cards. And, if we do lose him, there will be a big $ deal to someone. DD is well aware that we need a #2 SP, either Nola or someone else. I still think that Nola is the guy. 1 of the writers has us going after Chapman. Some of you will like that I am sure. I am sticking with Bohm, And, Marsh is my guy. I have him in LF for the next 4-5 years.

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    1. If the Phillies sign Chapman……that probably indicates Bohm becomes available in a trade for a pitcher.

      Like

        1. They could do that but replacing Bohm with low salary with Chapman with high salary I doubt they would unless Bohm will bring in a SP on low salary. I do think they will try to offset some salaries if possible but won’t hesitate to pick up larger salaries if it is right

          Like

          1. Chapman makes 0 sense. To spend $$$ on pitching, you need controllable, quality players at other key positions – aka 3B. Bohm is a .270 / 25-30 / 100 guy for the next 5-7 years, with an improved glove, and good attitude. He’s a cornerstone player in a cornerstone position.

            Harper – Stott – Turner – Bohm are the infield next 3-5 years.

            That said, you need to tweak – so you don’t get old, stale (see ’93). That comes down to either moving out an expensive Casty, and/or trading with chips like Rojas, Marsh.

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  50. Understood, Romus, but that’s another big $ FA and 1 less young guy, and we need as many young guys to play a role as possible. It can’t be Stott and nobody, There is still talk of Rojas starting out in AAA to work on his hitting. Even with Middleton’s willingness to spend, there is a limit to what we spend.

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    1. You’re so right! There is a limit to how much the Phillies spend this year and that’s what I am worried about because let’s say you give Nola $300 million for 7 years then you have barely any more money to spend on other players.

      Like

    2. matt…not advocating that move at all.
      Just reacting to some writers “throw it against the wall and hope it sticks” projectable analysis.

      Like

  51. Ok, I understood guys need to write their articles, and Jim Bowden is entitled to his opinion. But, shouldn’t their predictions have some connection to reality to them? Or is everything click bait? P.S. I didn’t click. So, he has Ohtani “surprising many” and signing with Texas, Dodgers lose out, then sign Aaron Nola to a 5 year/$125M contract, Seriously? He would already be here at 5/$125M. Then, we pivot and sign Jordan Montgomery for 5/$127M? Does this make any sense at all?

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  52. I expected the Phils to make minor moves like yesterday. Flemming probably won’t survive on the roster all winter but worth a shot for adding experience and insurance. Mercado is a lot like last years move for Marte to add a useful bullpen arm.

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  53. Wonder if the Phillies sent a scout down to the DR last month to watch Cuban RHP Yariel Rodriguez. ‘Rodriguez averaged 96.2 miles per hour on his fastball, 84.9 miles per hour on his slider, 76.7 miles per hour on his curveball, 88.9 miles per hour on his splitter and 86.2 miles per hour on his changeup’

    https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/mlb-teams-line-up-to-watch-cuban-pitcher-yariel-rodriguezs-first-tryout-in-dominican-republic-after-release-from-japan

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    1. Most likely. Half the teams in baseball sent scouts, and the Phils were reported as one of the teams that specifically have (had?) interest in him.

      Like

  54. ………well, I suppose it’ll come on like a category 4 when it comes……….only partly cloudy so far. Jim …. got anything juicy yet?

    Like

  55. Romus, I have a brief request. My son signed up his little guy for a camp on December 9th at Westfield. Ryne Sandberg is the instructor. I told him that Ryne was originally with the Phillies and then came back to manage in minors and briefly with the Phillies. Add any other things that I may have forgotten. I told him that he was traded to the Cubs for Manny Trillo. I think I am correct there. Thanks.

    Like

    2. Cubs snookered Phillies on two trades, both Ferguson Jenkins and then Sandberg…two Hall of Famers.
      Have the Phillies ever came away with any player from the Cubs in a trade that could meet those standards!

      Like

      1. David Robertson! Oops, was that out loud?

        Just waiting for Ben Brown to turn into a #3 starter so we can (justifiably) whine about that trade for the next 20 years.

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          1. As a reliever? He only threw 92 innings in 2023 with so-so results so I don’t think they would want him to go past 120-130 total in 2024. Guess they could play around with his starts to try to limit him a bit.

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      3. Romus, I was going to mention Fergie but felt Sandberg was enough.
        I have a question for you. Did you catch any of the AFL all-star game?
        I watched couple innings. Montgomery the Southern Indiana kid was batting, and Rueben was talking about him also playing other sports. Rueben said he felt that multiple sports help kids develop skills that are beneficial to whatever path they take. Montgomery was a very good basketball player. I forget if he played football, but he may have been the quarterback. I am not sure of that. But he mentioned that today many kids think they must concentrate on one sport. The school Montgomery attended is very similar to where my grandson attends so some similarities to the success of the multiple teams.

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        1. Don …missed the game, but agree.
          Kids playing different sports has to aid in their development….especially in athletic coordination.
          Granted hitting a baseball is probably one of the most difficult things to do….so a kid should concentrate on that aspect of the game when he has the time.

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    3. Don, I was at a Threshers/Blue Jays game in Dunedin and sitting two seats from Ruben Amaro. During the game, he received a call and bolted from his seat and the stadium. The next day he was in Philly for the press conference announcing that manager Sandberg was leaving the team. Have your son/grandson ask him what it’s like being a quitter. I have similar feelings regarding Dick Vermeil, just another quitter.

      Like

      1. Jim, I had forgot that he quit. I knew he did not finish the season. I have had this issue with my oldest grandson since beginning of last Summer. He is a better baseball player than basketball. But he is a pretty good basketball player. Would have been a starter and maybe even the leading scorer.
        A few weeks ago, I was inducted into my high school athletic HOF which they began 4 years ago. One of the other inductees made reference to a time where he decided to quit in the middle of the season in wrestling. One of the administrators at the time who was also the dad of a classmate of mine who went to Air Force and rose as high in the military that he had the number of the red phone in White House. Point his dad made with this kid at the time was “once you quit it makes quitting easier the next time.” My grandson was sitting in the audience, and I told some of my friends that I hoped he heard what was said. I have been so disappointed in my grandson for several months. I know he got bad information. Thanks for your comment. Here in Indiana, I miss so much of what goes on regarding the Phillies.

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  56. Not Romus, Don, but Sandberg was the “throw in” in the Bowa/Ivan DeJesus trade. He was our top prospect, and when Dallas Green left and took over the Cubs, and Bowa had an argument with Bill Giles over a raise he felt was promised to him by Ruly Carpenter, the team traded Bowa. Green demanded Sandberg as the throw in, and he went on to become an all time great at 2B.

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    1. DeJesus would play three seasons with the Phillies and help the club to win the 1983 National League pennant……….we still got snookered big time fwiw.

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  57. Thanks guys. I knew that Bowa was involved. I mentioned Romus because he is like an encyclopedia. LOL. Looking back that probably not the best trade. I may have to go down to the camp. It says one can get a photo with Sandberg. My grandson went to Cincy when the Phillies were there. He got 2 baseballs. One Nick flipped up to him during BP. 2nd was one of the BP pitchers tossed one up to him at the end of the game. He was on cloud 9. They had seats on the front row in left field and also right next to Phillies BP area.

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  58. I think the Phillies are going into the GM and Winter meetings with the intention of making some “outside the box” moves. While DD has not yet, emptied the shelves as his reputation invites, I feel like now is the time.
    The farm system, for the first time in awhile, has some legitimate talent in the top 20. Most of it lower level. But with the infield trotting out there for the foreseeable future, the options in the outfield, and the need for a #1/2 I think the front office will want to be creative to avoid handing out mor big $$ contracts to free agents with scruples (Hader, Snell).
    I like the trade route. Hinkie mentioned Glasnow. I like that. Cease? what does it take to get him?
    I just think that in Win Now mode and limited roster flexibility for the up and coming players (Rincones, De La Cruz, Dunn and yes Painter….again WIN NOW MODE) now will be the time to make those moves and some will be painful. Painter had TJ – They are doing great things medically – but think Noah Syndergard……you just don’t know. I think the biggest piece this winter is a TOR starter and I think it will be a trade but I’m curious what it would take – who else might be available that fits the bill, and do we have the talent to get it?

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    1. “Win Now Mode” is antiquated nomenclature that old school GMs once subscribed to. The modern GM operates in a much different environment especially the ones that can sustain upper echelon payrolls.

      The dynamic between Fuld and DD is probably very interesting.

      I’m sure Fuld prefers to keep the pipeline primed with young controllable talent now that he has a mix of high priced guys and low cost MLB everyday players.

      Ideally though one of those young low cost guys makes a leap into that next level type of elite player.

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  59. Captain, they may go the trade route if they lose Nola, but I still think Painter, Abel, Crawford and Miller are untouchable. I have no idea what other than them gets Glasnow or Cease and I sign Montgomery as a FA without a QO before I make a trade.

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  60. What if you signed Montgomery and could still get a TOR arm via trade of 1 or 2 blue chippers? You wouldn’t do it? Remember the Sports Illustraded cover with the 4 guys not named Blanton?

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    1. I remember that cover. It signaled the last year we were competitive for a decade, and won us zero championships.

      If you want to win titles, and that’s what the FO is after, the best way to do it is by having good teams for a long time. We’re not mortgaging our future anymore. That’s just not how successful teams do things.

      Will there be trades? Absolutely. Will we trade some of our blue chip prospects? Maybe for young, controllable guys. But we’re not pushing them all in.

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      1. Dan …agree…the O’Hoppe for Marsh was one of those trades…young skilled controlled players for each other

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  61. Only my opinion, Captain, but I don’t trade those 4 prospects. However, if the deal is Abel and Rincones, for example, for Cease, I do that. But I don’t think that makes the deal. Painter, to me, is a TOR future SP. fully understanding the TJ and missing the year, but his ceiling is high enough for me to risk keeping him.

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  62. SoCal, I also remember Dominic Brown, the # 1 Prospect in Baseball. That didn’t work out either. We are not talking about Cliff Lee or Doc. I still don’t trade Painter for Dylan Cease or Tyler Glasnow, and I am fully aware that Painter may not get back to what he was, or never hits his ceiling, or any of a multitude of other negative things. I don’t trade him, and I don’t think the FO trades him either. And, I could very well be wrong.

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    1. The thing with Painter is this. You never know what’s going to happen after TJ (Noah), but beyond that it wasn’t like he was ready to step onto the stage. I saw him 3 times last year and yes, his FB was really good, but the other stuff imo needed work. So, next year is shot and 2025 imo is half shot under the best of circumstances. So, if the right offer comes along I have to listen. It wasn’t too long ago that the magic name was Spencer and we all know how that went.

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    2. No, you’re not wrong. Unless he comes back looking nothing like what he was before, this team is absolutely not going to trade Andrew Painter. A young potential ace is among the most valuable assets in the sport.

      And, the problem with the argument suggesting that “so many prospects fail, so it’s not a big deal if they are traded” is that it gets you nowhere and proves nothing. Yes, many prospects fail, but many prospects also succeed and you MUST have good young players to get good and stay good. The tough part is deciding which prospects to keep and which to trade but if you think a guy has a good chance to turn into one of the top 10 starters in baseball, then he pretty much becomes untouchable, which is what I think Painter is – nearly untouchable.

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  63. I’m not suggesting that Painter be dangled out there as trade bait, just saying if it’s part of a package it should be considered. In all likelihood he doesn’t take the mound with the big club until mid ’25. At that point he’s probably still on a pitch limit if all is going well. Supplanting Nola (who I think goes elsewhere for money and years) with Montgomery, imo, still requires more work to be done. I don’t think that’s an upgrade. Crawford and Miller may be elite but probably, what, 3 years away? I think pitching and refreshing some lesser cogs (as SoCal mentioned) get this team better. And I think it’s going to take the minor league assets to do it. And I keep Casty. He seems to be loved by his teammates, he was 1 of less than 20 to drive in 100 and who’s picking up that slack? Boom, Harper probably. Rojas, Marsh…not likely. Hoskins…..nope.

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  64. I agree with you completely, SoCal. To be successful we have to be right on a certain number of prospects.

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  66. Elite prospects usually have a lower failure rate than those outside of the top 100. And since the Phillies’ farm system hasn’t been that great in the last 10 years, we have more non-elite prospects and they’ve failed which is not a surprise.

    Andrew Painter is easily the most talented pitching prospect we’ve had since Hamels. If Painter didn’t have TJ, he would have made his debut at age 20, a full 2 years younger than Hamels. You cannot trade Painter.

    If the Phillies trade for a controllable pitcher like Dylan Cease, Abel or Crawford will have to be part of that deal. You have to give talent to get talent. But you have to keep in mind that to control costs, you need to have young talent. So I don’t thing DD will be emptying the farm system.

    So a better question would be, out of Abel/Crawford/Miller, which player are you willing to give up?

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    1. There’s no doubt that Cease would cost a top prospect. That said, they have money so they don’t need to make that type of prospect-draining trade to obtain a top of rotation pitcher. A trade of top prospects for that pitcher will be a last resort here – I’m expecting a signing.

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      1. Remember, DD traded Randy Johnson because his people thought Johnson was a worse prospect than Brian Holman. Ouch!!!!

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        1. That’s not why Johnson was in the trade (Holman was too), but Johnson was not main player traded – Gene Harris and Holman were more highly regarded at the time. Amazing, but true.

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    2. ‘So a better question would be, out of Abel/Crawford/Miller, which player are you willing to give up?’….. I’d take my chances with Rojas in CF for the next 6/7 years…….Crawford for a top MLB pitcher or MLB ready prospect pitcher.

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      1. Painter and Miller are most likely untouchable.
        Abel and/or Crawford are probably more available in a deal for the right controllable SP1 or SP2. Controllable meaning at least 2 years thru contract or arbitration.

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  67. Thanks Guru, I respect that. I completely agree with the premise of infusing our young talent because I think we have some legitimately. It’s conceivable to have both Marsh and Castellanos until ’27 right? Bohm and Stott will be due for a payday and a long term contract. For that reason I hold Miller for Bohm (who I think will only continue to get better year after year both offensively and defensively). Young controllable pitching (Abel) I keep. Hopefully the last 2 years of development have him ready to turn the corner. So if I pick today, it’s Crawford out of the 3.

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    1. No offense, but I don’t want Castellanos in ’24.

      On Bohm, everyone thinks he’s great. He’s not. He’s okay, because his bad fielding (no range) and lack of plate discipline take away from his other positive attributes. For him to be really good he has to hit for a higher average and more power. Will he? Maybe.

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    2. I put off that decision as long as I can be, frankly, you really don’t know very well what you have in any of the 3. If I had to pick today, I’d pick Miller, but not with any conviction.

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  68. So who replaces Castellanos’ offense? I’m not in the group that thinks Bohm is great….but improving, and he is cost controlled.

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    1. Bohm is getting all the chances because he’s cost controlled and he was a former #3 overall pick. He could improve, but he’s already 27 and his defense is still poor. I don’t have high hopes for him which means the Phillies should let him walk when it’s time.

      As for Castellanos, his defense is taking away his value (just like Bohm and Hoskins). I would give him 1 more year in RF and then trade him next offseason. I need to see if Rojas/Pache will step up their offensive game. It will also help if Rincones/Crawford continue to improve.

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  69. That’s fine that you don’t like them, but who is the replacement? Another big money FA ? On a long term contract? We need guys like Bohm to produce. As for Casty replacement, you could probably get a gut on a one or two year deal to help pick up the slack but no way Rojas or Pache pick up that offensive slack. They’re not that type of hitters. Rincones….maybe?…but that’s asking a lot from a rookie no?

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    1. Skeet….that seem to be the foregone conclusion after he played there for awhile and showed he is athletic enough to handle the position very well.
      As for Rhys…..unless trades are made of key players, I do not see how he can fit into the picture as just a DH on the team.

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      1. Rhys doesn’t fit and DD basically said so in his comments on Harper moving to 1b. It was obvious last year when Harper started playing 1b that he was done in Philly.

        Even trading Castellanos would only be done to get a different type of outfielder.

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  72. Romus…..so the ? mark on 1B has been erased if it wasn’t a foregone conclusion. So that means to me that Castellanos is your Rhys Hoskins so to speak as far as offensive production goes. Does that mean to you that SP is the quarry with all the rumors on Sonny Gray and not out of the hunt for Nola yet?

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    1. Looks like if it is Gray, at 34 years old, he may settle for three plus an option year (probably mutual, not team- with a hefty buy-out) and maybe @$23/24M AAV.
      Not sure how the Nola thing will eventually work out….as I always thought the AAV is no problem, Middleton does not go cheap…it is the length.

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      1. Sonny is a mercurial pitcher tends to do better in the smaller markets but getting him on a 2 even 3 year deal wouldn’t be a bad thing.

        I hate comparing one player to another but who would have thought Charlie Morton would still be as effective as he is at his age.

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        1. DMAR..agree.
          Sometimes these average to mediocre older pitchers from the past, find the fountain of youth and another better pitch, and come around.
          cards’ Mikolas and Kelly of the DBacks are other ones…both did some time in the Asian leagues.

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  73. Skeet, not Romus, I believed that if Rhys was brought back. Castellanos would be traded. I think this secures that Rhys plays elsewhere. I am surprised that there aren’t more rumors linking us to Montgomery instead of Gray. But who knows what is accurate. I think Montgomery is better and doesn’t have a QO.

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  74. So, it seems the team spoke to Harper, he said he would play either, and the team made the decision for him. It’s 1B. I don’t think anyone doubted that Harper’s answer would be whatever benefits the team most.

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  75. Catch,…… earlier post of yours concerning Castellanos and I’m not ringing your chimes, really not,……how does Harper at 1B alter your thinking going forward concerning Castellanos? Is he here to stay in RF and we are focused on pitching or could he still be in play for Trader Dave to move?

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  76. I have got to believe that Dombrowski and company figured that Castellanos is untradeable and they know that they would have to eat a ton of money to get rid of him and they don’t want to do that.

    Therefore, it was between him and Hoskins who I think could have made up for the lost RBIs in a Castellanos departure. Harper in RF and Hoskins at 1b would have evened out defensively with Harper at 1B and Castellanos in RF.

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    1. With the news that Harper is manning 1B, the Phillies can easily move Schwarber to DH full time (which helps the defense drastically) and gives Castellanos 1 more year in RF. I think the bigger issue is that the Phillies don’t have an internal replacement (yet) for Castellanos. Both Crawford and Rincones are at High-A, and a strong 2024 season could put them in contention for the RF job in 2025. If Pache can hit RH pitching in 2024, he could also be in the mix for RF.

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  77. Harper at 1B was the obvious course of action. The Phillies don’t have a 1B prospect waiting and Harper will likely be at least league average defensively at 1B which is way better than what Hoskins was at 1B.

    Good luck to Hoskins.

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  78. With Harper at 1b, they’ll sign someone to play LF, expecting Rojas to start at LHV. Duvall, Pham, and Renfroe are available. Who do people prefer?

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    2. Murray I agree – Marsh plays cf; Nick in rf ; Pache and a lefty bat that also plays 1B to rest Harp has to be acquired. Duval or another power bat can alternate with Pache. Rojas to AAA to work on his hitting for half season. Renfroe tailed off but he can still play.

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      1. Bench isn’t that big. Pache will be the 4th OF and they’ll sign one of the free agent OFs to play LF. Sosa will play 3b with Bohm at 1b to rest Harper, who won’t sit out much. There will be a competition for the 2nd IF bench spot. Wes Wilson and Dunn will be in the competition among others.

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        1. Dunn will probably be gone before spring training…..Rule 5 draft next month, or some type of a minor Dave D deal.
          His AFL performance probably was the selling point for scouts from a few other clubs.

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          1. A selling point you mean a trade, yes, but if we wasted a spot in the AFL on a player that is going to be a Rule5 draftee, then not a smart move.

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            1. It’s not a waste, that’s one of the primary reasons for the AFL. The players who go there usually fall into one of two categories; either 1) they missed time (usually due to injury), so they can get extra work in, or 2) they’re about to need a roster decision, so the team uses it to get a longer look before making their decision.

              The players who fall into the second category also serve the dual purpose of playing in front of other organizations, opening up a larger possibility of the other teams wanting to trade for them.

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  79. Anyone take a shot on Bauer? I don’t think he’s known as a great clubhouse guy but I think he might be a good buy low candidate. Based on things I’ve read, the case was a money grab. Might be humbled and willing to be a better teammate.

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    1. His IQ is so high it burned out his filtering system in the past.
      Very tricky decision if the Phillies go in that direction…..remember the Phillies Way is mightily endorsed by Middleton….they want straight and narrow guys, behaving in a way that is honest and moral, without baggage that will not incur distractions or public ridicule.

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      1. He did receive some high praise from Mookie Betts and in turn Mookie took a lot of heat for dolling out that praise.

        At the end of it all though you can’t extract the off field stuff from the player on the field.

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        1. I’d challenge his resolve and new found personality…have him stand on the Citizen’s Bank pitchers mound, and see if he can throw it over the batters’ eye in CF into Ashburn Alley! (tic)

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    2. Sign Bauer ASAP. He’s hitting mid-90’s. He’s pi**ed. He’s got a Godzilla-size chip on shoulder. And there’s no signing picks lost.

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      1. I’ll give you that he’s talented and he’s smart. But he is a class A jerk – no, worse, he’s a true backstabbing a__ _ hole. He is a clubhouse killer. I don’t want him around at any price. No thank you. Have a nice life, Trevor.

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        1. Just a thought….last 2 teams amazing chemistry, but 0 rings. What would a clear #2, possibly #1a get you? Think of him as a bridge to Painter and Abel. One year, incentive based deal.

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  80. Rojas will be our starting CF, Marsh majority of LF. I am very happy with the Harper decision, going forward we should be an above average defensive team with possible GG at first, second and center.

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    1. Also Marsh in 2022, was a GG candidate in LF in his brief time as an Angel.
      In the 77 games in LF, he had a positive 6 DRS. That is outstanding.

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        1. Soler would do well in LF, and Marsh could always move over to RF. if Castellanos is traded. That is assuming Rojas is the CFer.
          Then again, if the Padres trade Soto to the Phillies for Castellanos and prospects….Soto goes to LF.
          Soto will probably get $30M last arb….then he is a free agent in 2025…so Padres may want to strike now while the iron is hot for Soto….and may not to take much prospect capital to get a deal done.
          Of course Phillies will lose him if they cannot give him a Turner/Harper type deal in 2025..

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  82. Rumors starting on a Castellanos possible trade. I don’t think they have any interest in a salary dump, but for a controllable SP? Like with Miami? That is a possibility. Teoscar Hernandez in RF? Maybe? And, no thank you on Bauer.

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  83. I’d finally bring in one of Hinkies favs Kevin Kiermaier. He’d be a great compliment to Pache in CF (Marsh is not a good CF) for a platoon spot. Rojas for me would start the year in AAA

    I’d hope for a couple of things: One Pache plays really well and draws some attention for a trade. Two Rojas finds his bat and sharpens his bunting skills and then gets called back up.

    Wilson would be my super utility guy. He has good ABs draws walks and hits dingers all while being capable at a multitude of positions.

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  84. If the Brewers are in sell mode which some reports are surfacing as that may a future possibility, do you sell the farm for Burnes and Williams. Solves 2 major needs.

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    1. I like burnes, but Williams not so high on – probably pass

      Abel, Ricones, and ? To get it done if it did go down?

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      1. Burnes and Williams? It’s basically the heart of the Brewers – it will cost you a treasure trove of prospects. Two of Abel, Crawford and Miller – and then some more. Why would you do that when your team has money to buy a big time free agent without sacrificing those prospects? To ask that question is to answer it. It almost certainly would not happen.

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  85. Here are my thoughts. I think Phillies a #2 starter. Regarding the BP tend to think they may be satisfied with what they have. I think on the left side things look pretty good. Soto needs to be more consistent. Team may feel that with Hoffman, Kerkering and SerAnthony they have the right-handed closer they need to replace Kimbrel.
    I figured they would leave Harper at 1B. Lots less wear and tear over the coming years. Regarding Rhys and Nick, it seems that one and maybe both will leave. To me one of the things that really hurts this team at times, and it did the last 5 games of the LCS is the swing and miss problem that so many of the current players have.
    I may be totally wrong, but I do not see many major changes with the roster intact now. This group was very close, but I do understand that you do not stand pat all the way. Hopefully, the right decisions are made, and the team is very good next season and for years to come.
    Game 4 still makes this a long offseason for me. Just no reason that game should have ever been lost IMO.

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  86. One other quick thing. Many are talking about the young prospects. It is a crap shoot knowing who is going to make it big and who is not. I remember the Brown, Drabek, etc. None really made it big of those guys. Most of those really high guys did not even become real average guys.

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  87. Replies to a lot of what’s up top:

    Bauer: I’ve Followed him on his YT
    Channel. Super talent, super knowledgeable on baseball, easily a future pitching coach. I feel like he gets a bad wrap. MLB did him dirty for the spider tack video. If the clubhouse is okay with being taped, sign him. Probably get him on a 1 or 2 yr deal tools. Probably worth the headache. He’s learned to pitch differently in Japan. I bet he crushes it in his return. A weird cat, but not weird enough to not sign

    Pass on signing KK – too much redundancy

    Trout could be in play with Hoskins out of the picture – but it does look like that ship has sailed unless LAA would pay down the contract heavily

    I prefer the Japanese pitcher over all options. I won’t butcher his name, it’s a long shot, but he’s the too FAA imo

    I didn’t realize how much bellinger was going to be worth, but It looks like the Giants could really bring in a lot of talent this off-season.

    For Nola, I can see him resigning but also going to a pitcher friendly park
    To help Limit the hr ball

    DD is going to make a big trade. I get the feeling.

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    1. “Bauer: …………super knowledgeable on baseball”…….he better be, he is labeled a genius with an IQ of 151.

      Like

      1. Romus – that’s my IQ 🙂 he’s changed the game, at least for pitchers, you can see other pitchers throughout all levels of baseball using his warmup & drills. MLB has done him dirty because he’s a bit of a weirdo.

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        1. Tac…….I believe his issue, being so nerdy intelligent , is that as a starting pitcher…..he gets in 30 games a season…..and with all that mass matter in his brain getting electrified, he gets bored between starts and becomes a real Mr Hyde–Dr Jekyll on game day, Mr Hyde the four days between……….teams should have made him a closer out of the pen….every other day he has to be prepared to be in a game…off days prepares for next day games……he has no time to be bored and cause trouble….anyway bullpen guys are a bit wacky to start ……out there, he would fit right in.

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    2. You’re right on KK to the extent that would give us 3 exceptional CFs with very limited offense…That said he had a 105 OPS+ against RHP last season. The real redundancy is Pache/Rojas.

      I’m hoping they cement Marsh as an everyday LF. He’s just ok in CF. No reason to force that square peg any longer.

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  88. I’ve thought about this a bit. I really can’t comment on the Japanese player, except to say we never sign these guys, but I reserve judgment on him – he might be great.

    That said, I have this feeling we are going to sign Blake Snell. If you’re the Phillies, you have to plan for the present and the rotation of the future.

    Check out this rotation of the future – it’s fabulous – Wheeler, Snell, Painter, Suarez, and Abel (or Sanchez if Abel falters, NO PUN INTENDED, LOL). That’s a championship rotation with many different looks and skills almost every night. Wow!

    Like

    1. I basically offer Snell a slight upgrade over the contract Scherzer got from the Nationals – I think it’s doable unless the Yankees decide they are just going to pour money over him they way they did with Judge and Cole – if they do, you go to another plan.

      Like

      1. IMO, Yankees are going to try to get Yamamoto initially.
        If that fails, then I see them going for Snell.
        But not sure Snell wants to pitch in NYC…he could be another Cliff Lee/Sonny Gray/Zach Greinke type personality player…..does not want to deal with the microscopic regular criticism and pressures of the Big Apple’s media.

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        1. Everyone thought Yu Dharvish would wind up with a club on one of the coasts but he went to TX. It occasionally does happen that a Japanese player bucks that trend.

          The Phillies just might be the excitement capital of the MLB right now so we should just make sure we have our hat in the ring so to speak and see what happens.

          As good as Snell can be he had a BB Rate of 5 last season. Also he rarely if ever gets you through 6 IP. At 30 y/o I’d not go into that $$$ and years territory for him.

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          1. Note that the Rangers had the highest bid for Yu Darvish, which at the time was only $51.7M.

            I fully expect Yamamoto to get a bids in the $210M+ range.

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    2. Phillies may have a good chance with signing LHP Shōta Imanaga…a bit older 30, and smallish…but he did start for Japan in the WBC Gold M edal game vs the USA. Does not have the same cache as Yamamoto but will come with a smaller price tag and shorter length contract.

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  89. I have zero interest in Bauer, and I don’t think we get Yamamoto, not because we don’t pay, we do and we will, but because we are never even a finalist for the Japanese talent when they first come over. I don’t see Montgomery mentioned much. I like him, and he has no QO attached. I am not giving up on Nola, but if he is set on 7 years, I think we are out.

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  91. Matt, I saw someone predicting Nola at 6 and 150 to somone. Maybe Cards. I can see Phillies going 6. But personally, I would pass on 7 or 8. I like Nola and the Phillies know what you get. Usually, a guy who goes 6 or 7 but somewhere in the game has one bad inning. If you can live with that then ok. Aaron is durable. You pencil his name in every 5 and 6 day, and he goes to the mound.

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  92. I have a question I thought about the other day. Last year Phillies gave Walker I think it was 4 and 72. What did Eovaldi get from Rangers? I was thinking it was similar but I could be way off. It came to mind other day when one of MLB said Eovaldi won 5 playoff games this year and then I thought Walker did not throw a pitch. Just wondered.

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    1. Note that Eovaldi was 33 and has a history of injuries. He got 2/34 and a vesting option.

      Walker was 30 and was durable for the Mets the last 2 seasons.

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    2. So we give a lesser pitcher 3/65 and then another 3 years from now 3/85. Why not get Nola at 6/150? Overall results for the 6 years will be better with Nola at same cost.

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  93. Don, I saw that as well the other day. I think it was Jim Bowden, naybe not. But, my comment was if the number is 6 and $150M then we sign him. It’s longer than what the team wants, but I think they go 5, and should not lose him for 1 year. But, the problem becomes if he gets 7 or 8 year offers. Only 1 is really what it takes, and I think a few here have said the same thing. We have no problem paying $, it’s the length that has held up re-signing Nola. But, I do 6/$150M, for sure.

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  94. Guru, thanks. Just shows that sometimes you get lucky. I knew Eovaldi had injury history. So Rangers hit on 1 of 2 huge risks on pitching side. I think Eovaldi also missed sometime during season. That may have been a benefit for the playoff run. I was way off on the money figures.

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  95. MLB has an article detailing which top 30 team prospects need to be added to the 40 man roster by Tuesday’s 6pm deadline or risk getting exposed to the rule 5 draft.

    For the Phillies, it’s Carlos De la Cruz and Samuel Aldegheri.

    The Phillies current 40 man roster stands at 38 players. Note that Muzziotti, Mercado, Fleming are already part of the 38.

    I think the Phillies can easily create space on the 40 by designating some players.
    Some candidates are Luis Ortiz, Jake Cave, Kody Clemens, Darick Hall, Simon Muzziotti.

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      1. If there is a player in our system that I feel badly about, it is Darick. He just happened to have the misfortune to be in our system at the wrong time. I really have a hope that a stateside club would take a chance on him. Really hope that whatever happens with him really turns out well.

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        1. Darick was not a top prospect so the odds of him sticking on the Phillies were long to begin with. Then he got an opportunity and then he got hurt which sucked for him.

          If Hall wants to go the Darin Ruf route and head to Asia, best of luck to him. Ruf was able to come back stateside and parlay his experience into a $6M contract.

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        2. oops……I’ll try to be less compassionate to my fellow man…….one thing for sure, that TD wasn’t Romus!😅

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  96. Matt, I think Phillies will go 6 and 150 as well if that will get things done. I have no info on that but there are only so many out there. I agree that someone may go 7 or yikes 8. But since a few days have passed now maybe not. I mentioned other day that I think I have figured out how to get comment to post each time now. Took a while.

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  97. If Snell is looking at 7/200 and Nola 6/150, Yamamoto 9/225. Higher AAV for Snell who doesn’t get you more than 5-6 innings ordinarily, IMO Nola’s warts are starting to show, I’d hate to see the last 3 years of that contract paying him as a #4, but maybe he holds up. A lot of innings on that arm. I guess what I’m thinking is Snell isn’t really an upgrade so keep Nola….but the year? Tough call. And the unproven , might be great…for 9 years? Scary. Tough calls.

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    1. What does it say about Snell that, even with 5 bb per 9 he still had an ERA under 2.30 and was better on the road than he was at home.

      I hope they get Snell. Elite power lefties are rare commodities and he’s just in his prime. I hope the Yankees or Dodgers don’t give him a 9 or 10 year deal.

      Also, while they are at it, they really should sign Ranger.

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  98. The rumor is that the Phils and Nola were $100M apart in ST. That sounds like 4/$100M v 7/$200M. Maybe the Phils go up to 5/$140M but that’s about it and others might go to 6/$180M. I still think a trade for a SP like Burnes is very possible.

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    1. 28 a yr . Wow . Not my money give him 35 for 9 or 10.yrs. so he isn’t a ace. Just raise beer prices to 28 a cup

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        1. Romus I have no clue. Help. Pls. How much better is Snell over Nola? Or Gray. Is Nola the better pitcher but it’s a money issue.

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          1. Nola is a better buy than Snell. I think it is a fluke to walk that many and have a low ERA (Snell). I’d rather take Gray on a shorter contract over Snell and Nola over both of them.
            Now I think going after Yamamoto, Imanaga, and Yariel Rodriguez would be worth the effort. Good to high upside for each.
            Yuki Matsui would be a good signing if you don’t want to spend $100 mil on Hader.
            Hector Neris is my 2nd favorite pick for closer out of all those out there.

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          2. rocco…..I lean Nola…..but no more than six years, and the sixth year a mutual buy-out.
            Phillies rarely give any pitcher more than 5 years…..actually I cannot recall any pitcher ever getting more than 5 years on a contract…….money AAV is not the issue when it comes to Middleton, it is the length.
            Snell is alright…but if Sanchez is in the rotation you will then have three lefties in it…..and that does not bode well vs the Braves right handed leaning lineup.
            Gray would be cheaper and at 34 years old on a three year contract…but quality of pitching probably is a notch or two below Nola.

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  99. Those wishing for a Juan Soto to Philly trade may be out of luck…or maybe not.
    ….sounded sort of like Scott Boras said the Padres were not going to trade Juan Soto…. “They laid out their plan for next year, which obviously included a lineup that definitely included Juan Soto,” Boras said of a meeting his agency had with the Padres’ brass on Tuesday. “He’s their one .900-OPS player. They’re obviously looking for more left-handed bats rather than less.”
    I guess this is the reality, and yet it by no means connotes that Soto is certain to be with the Padres in 2024. He is in line to become the highest-paid player on a team that is trying to trim payroll while adding three or four starting pitchers.

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    1. Boras would rather the Padres trade Soto at the deadline. That would free him of a QO. Although, pretty certain the QO isn’t going to negatively impact Soto all that much.

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    2. One thing is for sure with the Padres…AJ Preller does not sit still…he is aggressive and assume he will be this off-season.

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  100. The Friars have Tatis, Machacho and Soto as very highly paid position players. Can’t see them playing any better than this past year seeing that they have very little pitching.

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  101. Something is afoot in SD. I think they are having financial problems. Reduced player salaries, letting all player options lapse (the 3 pitchers), the messy manager situation. Moreover, as pointed out above, no pitching other than 2 starters and they also have to fix the bullpen – no more Hader. They needed an emergency 50 million loan and Seidler has serious health problems. I think they hit the wall, rather Preller hit the wall. Soto will get traded as Hinkie suggests at mid year when they can’t take the financial heat any longer and it creates a no QO for him. That team is a short.

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    1. Soto’s last arb is approx $28/30M…..waiting until July may not bring back a King’s ransom of QUALITY prospects since he will be only a two-month rental with certainty of a free agency market staring him in the face.
      Just look at what the Dodgers did with Manny and the Orioles…how many of those five prospects are key contributors for the Orioles now..and the Dodgers farm system was rated very high at the time…just the one, pitcher Dean Kremer!
      Plus if it finances that are weighing down the Padres…..they will have had to pay $20M to Soto already against their threshold.
      If it were up to me, I’d move Soto next month to the highest bidder,

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  102. Snell will soon be a two time Cy Young winner but he’s a 6 inning lefty and I don’t want him. I’m not sure Nola is worth 5/$140M but he’ll get at least that because of his durability. If they can get Gray on a 3/$60M type deal, I think they’d jump at it but he’s not as good as Nola and already 34. Depending on the trade cost, I still think Burnes could be an attractive option if they could extend him. He’s a very good pitcher.

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        1. Interesting. Snell did reach 180 innings for the 2nd time so I guess he wasn’t far behind Nola in that regard.

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          1. I think a Snell issue is his high pitch count, which cuts short his innings per game….tends to walk more than usual and also does strike out plenty, so he does not go deep into games.
            His H/9 though are the lowest in the league at 5.8

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  103. Happy Veterans Day to all that served. I appreciate my freedom that y’all provide for my country & family.
    Thank you!

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    1. Yes. Thank you for your service, Romus & all other veterans on PP.

      .

      On a different note: one move that has sort of flown under the radar ▶ Phillies moved Sal Agostinelli to a senior adviser role this week, and promoted Derrick Chung to Director Of International Scouting. I’m excited for this. Chung is young (35 YO) and Korean American. Maybe I’m reading too much into this, but I see this as maybe a greater emphasis on Asia. Phillies have been working Taiwan (Wen Hui Pan /Hao-Yu Lee/front-runners for Lin An Ko before he decided to play in the CPBL) hard, but need to be more aggressive in Japan & Korea IMO. Roki Sasaki will be up for grabs in 3 more years!!!

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      1. Long-time listener (met Jim in Clearwater at 2016 spring training) and sporadic caller. Fun fact: Derrick Chung was the catcher and senior leader of the 2011-12 Sacramento State team that featured Freshman All-American Rhys Hoskins.

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        1. Another fun, but irrelevant Derrick Chung fact: he graduated HS with old friend James Harden. BTW … that Daryl Morey transaction to ship Harden to LA may go down as one of the greatest in Sixers’ history.

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          1. It’s hard to feel badly for a guy who makes as much money as Daryl Morey does, but I do a bit. When he arrived in Philadelphia, two very incompetent GMs had, in an extremely short period of time, blown all of the team’s draft capital and maxed out salary to (or around) the cap and over a really long period of time, with a max deal given to a slightly above average player (Harris) and another huge deal given to a player who didn’t fit (Horford). On top of that, Ben Simmons became a huge problem because Doc Rivers answered a question innocuously, honestly and, apparently, incorrectly.

            Morey did an excellent job of trading Simmons (thank God – soon after the trade he was worth next to nothing) and then waited things out properly to trade Harden. I was shocked at how many assets he received in return.

            Starting now, we are going to be able to see what Morey can do with some flexibility and a base of two superstars. I’m excited about it.

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      2. This is great. Sal had a very mixed tenure. Not all good and not all bad. He knew middle infield, catching and pitching talent when he saw it. He did pretty well with some extremely limited budgets for many years. He discovered Carlos Ruiz, Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez, Ranger Suarez and Sixto Sanchez (we all forget that he was on the verge of becoming an elite prospect before he got hurt and lost focus – but the talent was there).

        But I think his focus was wildly off when it came to outfield talent. He was fixated on fast, skinny outfielders. When that works out, you have Johan Rojas. When it doesn’t you get a ton of guys who look like Carlos Tocci – who never had a shot to hit big league pitching – I mean, like zero chance. So we never had a Juan Soto or Ronald Acuna, Jr. Ever. Or anything roughly approaching that. And that hurts.

        They took one big swing at a guy who they thought could be a big time power hitter – Jhailyn Ortiz – and missed horribly. And otherwise wasted their big signings on skinny, slick fielding guys who had little chance to be big league hitters like Yhoshwar Garcia (what a stupid waste of money – seriously). Honestly, I hated that.

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    1. LOL…$8.5M AAV for next 7 or 8 years…thank you Sandy Barbour where ever you are, former PSU AD…..he is now a combined 4-16 vs Ohio State and Michigan in last 10 years. Sheesh…talk about mediocrity!

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        1. 9-2 Franklin – the GOAT of Participation Bowls – an annual trip to the Outback, Gator or Astro Blue Bonnet Bowl.

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  106. Romus, I kidded a buddy of mine after games today that Franklin probably comes to IU. At least he played to win. Like PSU game IU today in OT ran three running plays to kick FG and then lost in OT. Typical IU game. Score 45 pts and lose because your defense is awful.

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    1. Don…….only know one PSU alum who likes him as the HC…that is my financial adviser….he met him at a fund raiser, and swears by him….I do not argue with my financial adviser.

      Like

      2. That’s the difference between youRomus and south philly people, Our financial advisor is stuffing money in hiding places, I cant get used to this generation, My kids carry no cash, I say if someone helps you and you want to tip them you cant, If you car breaks down and you need a hot shot, or a flat tire , and they help you how do you say to them ,Here go buy yourself lunch on me, That’s the way i was brought up,

        Like

        1. rocco…..I know….soon digital currency will be the norm.
          Save your Rosland gold teeth, they may come in handy some day..

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          1. Romus, wonder if Jimbo Fisher might consider coming to IU? Looks as though he has 76M reasons he could spend some time in Bloomington. LOL

            Like

    1. Rincones was very promising this year. It may not seemed as if they rushed him, but getting to high A ball in your first year in the system and doing well in the AFL is a big accomplishment. Next year, after he’s had a year to settle in and adjust to minor league ball, we should get a better assessment of his abilities, but the power, plate discipline and stolen base abilities are really helpful. Nice to see that in that game Baker went 2 innings, struck out 4 and gave up one run. He throws so hard that it’s worth keeping him around to see if the lightbulb will come on and it could – at any time.

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      1. I like to think peer pressure can be a motivator for some people….Rincones’ college teammate, Nolan Schanuel, made it to the Angels lineup less than 8 weeks after he was drafted this past summer, and performed very well in the last 6/7 weeks of the season …..maybe that spurs on Rincones even further.
        And yes Baker has a good chance to get his MLB debut this summer….the way BP arms seem to break down or fizzle every season, that can be more a reality than a wish for him

        Like

        1. I really don’t see Schanuel’s path as being too relevant to what Rincones does, but who knows?

          On Baker, appearing in the big leagues would be a very big (but wonderful) surprise. He was really bad this year because his control/command is awful and he can’t throw breaking pitches for strikes. If he just gets on track and has a solid year in AA and hopefully some AAA, I’d be pleased.

          Relief pitchers are weird. Someone taught here that, once a reliever can command a plus pitch and consistently show another one, he’s essentially ready for the big leagues. That’s how Seranthony essentially jumped from A ball to the majors in a short amount of time and the same with Kerkering.

          On Kerkering. Forget about the rushing him part – he’ll be fine. What I still don’t get is having that guy pitch backwards, throwing breaking ball after breaking ball, when he can throw a FB almost 100 MPH. He needs to throw much more heat to set up that slider/splitter. To me, unless he’s lights out in ST (always possible), he starts in AAA at least for a month or two. He could use some more development time.

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  108. Catch – Both Rincones and Dunn struck out either around or above 30% of their plate appearances in AZ. In the AFL they faced better pitching but that is still a pretty high %. Hopefully, they each progress to make the big club some day or at least turn out to be trade pieces.

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  109. Looks as though Phillies and Nola are still long ways apart. I mentioned I thought they would do the 6 and 150. If in the Spring it was only 4 and 100, I am probably wrong. Maybe something in the 130M range but probably not higher. It will be interesting to see which main pitcher signs first. Looks as though no other team is keen on the 8 and 200M idea.

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    1. I think (speculating) that Nola will give Phil’s a chance to match. If it was before the last couple of playoff seasons, probably not, but it’s pretty hard to say no to winning, a ton of money, and keep a good amount of friends , and be a cornerstone. Will see but i bet he tries to get Phil’s to match

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      1. For sure Nola will give the Phillies a chance to match but the Phillies have given no inclination of giving a 6+ year contract to pitchers in their 30s which is a good thing.

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  110. To me, we have to get a #2SP, whether it is Nola, Snell or Yamamoto. I don’t think we have any shot at Yamamoto and I don’t believe that Snell’s contract is significantly less than Nola’s. So I have to weigh the issue of 6 years vs 5 for Nola, if that becomes the sticking point against the cost in prospects to get a Dylan Cease or Corbin Burnes. Is that Abel, Crawford, Miller? I don’t know. But I know my answer. I give Nola the extra year rather than lose a top level prospect let alone 2 or 3. And I know the rate of failure of prospects and the Lee and Doc trades, but Cease and Burnes are not Lee and Doc in my mind.

    Like

    1. Three pitchers the Phillies need to address with LTCs.
      1. Wheeler….cannot let him go next year into limbo like Nola this past season….3 year extension thru 2027 @ $30M AAV
      2. Ranger…..now jump on his contract….5yr/$90M- buying out arb yrs
      3. Nola orreplacement….cannot comprehend the $$$ what that could be

      Like

      1. Romus – check it out – you and I agree!! I think Wheeler will cost a little more and Ranger will costs a little less but they need to be signed.

        I am still very much in favor of Snell. I think he’s about to have a superb 5 or 6 year run (his arm is fresh – he wasn’t overused as a younger pitcher, which is huge) and he provides a completely different look than any of their other starters in the big leagues or the minors.

        On money, I just see Nola somewhere else, although I wouldn’t be upset if he ended up here. I think he ends up with the Dodgers or the Yankees (frankly, he’d do well on either team), with Seattle and Houston as dark horses. Someone will give him 7 years and about $190-200 million and I doubt it will be the Phillies, who probably won’t go more than 5 years and an option year with him.

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        1. Ranger will command less than that because his performance is mostly about projection. I think you could get him for 5 years at around $70m or so. I would say, now, his projected worth on the market would be around $18 million a year for his free agent years. That’s $54 million for 3 FA years. His arbitration projection this year is $5 m max and probably $11-12 million for the next year. That gets you to around $70-75 million or so. He’s a bargain at that price.

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      2. If you don’t get Wheeler extended now there is a good chance he ends up with the Braves.

        His wife being from Jersey and He from Dallas Georgia where they just purchased a large plot of land and spend their off seasons.

        I’d go year to year on Ranger. I love him yes but his stuff is not that compelling to me that I couldn’t replace it when the time comes or get him on an $18M AAV then if warranted.

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        1. DMAR…going year to year with Ranger can be risky…sure you save on money thru his arb years…..but what if these next two years he puts up 3 or 4WAR seasons….in 2026 he will hit free agency and you may have just priced yourself out of the market with him.
          I look at it like this…..a boyd in the hand is worth two in the bush.

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  111. Will the Phillies protect Oliver Dunn from the Rule V draft? It’s worth debating. Dunn, the former Rule V player selected last year in the minor-league phase from the Yankees, has been chosen as the AFL Breakout Player of the Year. He has positional versatility and speed. Makes you wonder if he will get one of the coveted 40-man roster spots ahead of tomorrow’s 6 p.m. deadline.

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    1. If you can protect Castro for a year who showed nothing, I would think you could protect someone who showed something! Now will they or might they trade him as an add on?

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      1. Agree Skeet…….Ollie Dunn is a keeper in my book…..over Castro.
        And even after being on the 40, he could be traded next season at some time.
        He could end being one of those late bloomers that contributes quite a bit to a MLB team…..maybe someone like a Gio Urshela.

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  112. I neglected to add Jordan Montgomery as a FA option. I sign him over trading for one of the purported available SPs

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  113. I love Nola and all he has given this city but watching him last year shows me he’s not worth the money. Let’s move on. Ton of innings on the arm. Best years behind him. If he’s going to command 5/150+ then we have to let him walk. Toughest thing to do is let homegrown talent walk.

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    1. “Toughest thing to do is let homegrown talent walk.”
      ….yes it is, but the Braves regularly do it, even with one future Hall of Fame player.

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  114. Romus, a question. Saw the Nittany Lions just let OC go. Did Lions not put 51 points or so on Maryland a week ago? Maybe the problem lies elsewhere? LOL
    Saw piece today that Snell wants to go to Seattle. But Phillies may be his best option. Snell is good. But I am not his biggest fan. Who do you think ends up in Philly in the end?
    BTW the Hoosiers nudged out Army last night. Led by 3 with a couple minutes to go. May be a long winter for me in Bloomington as well as the Phillies failure.

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    1. Don…..PSU has more OCs in Franklin’s 10 years than they had in the previous 74 years under Rip Engle and JoePa.
      What does that tell you!
      The next OC will be either number 5 or 6 under Franklin.
      Nick Saban has had a lot of them….but the Tide either win NCAA
      championships or are in the finals

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    2. Yeah, we did and cremated U. Mass. …….problem is Ohio St. & Michigan are horses of a different color and we only beat them 4 times out of 20 the past 10 years, also this will be Franklin’s 6th OC in the past 20 years….maybe he should let someone else pick him!

      I’m not that high on Snell, either, but we need a solid #2 SP.

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      2. Skeet, us IU fans would love it if we only got beat by OSU and Michigan. IU tends to play better against those two than the ones they should be able to compete against. I do agree though that PSU gets the same kind of kids as those two and should win a higher percentage of those games.

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    1. v1gain, you make some of the best comments on this website. Oliver Dunn has some good numbers, but his K rate is almost equal to Carlos de la Cruz, who you have pointed out, has a rather high K rate. You caution about Carlos, I guess the same should be said about Oliver

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  116. I understand that sentiment can cause mistakes in keeping guys that ultimately hurt the team. That is not how I view Nola. Hoskins, yes, and we are replacing him with Bryce Harper, an upgrade. Who is the equal to Nola, let alone an upgrade? Snell? We have no idea if he is an upgrade, or if his contract is less, or he can give us the innings that Nola can. The Braves let Freddie Freeman go, I get it. A Franchise icon who can still play really well. They got his replacement in Matt Olsen. Traded Pache, who was highly regarded at the time, we see what he is now, Langeliers, the C, and 2 pitching prospects, Estes and Cusick, who I know nothing about. What is the trade we are making to acquire a #2 SP that is equal or better than Nola? The A’s don’t have a SP to trade, and pretty much every other one that is available is going to cost a heckuva lot more than wht the Braves gave up for Olsen. And that is without knowing anything about Cusick or Estes.

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    1. Braves won the WS with Freddie Freeman, since then they have been knocked out of the opportunity by the Phillies. Replacement never means better.
      Sign Nola!

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  117. Watching the MLB ROY awards show, and I’m thinking who on the Phillies could post a ROY caliber season like Gunnar Henderson (6.2 WAR, debut at age 21) or Corbin Carroll (5.4 WAR, debut at age 22)? And it comes down to one name: Justin Crawford. Crawford is going to be 20 at High-A. He could potentially be a top 25 prospect by the end of next season. I hope the Phillies don’t trade him.

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  118. Someone help me here. How did Tyler Glasgow go from a little over $5M in his next to last arbitration year to $25M in his final arbitration year?

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    1. Contract status….. he signed a 2 year / $30,350,000 contract with the Rays, including $30,350,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $15,175,000. In 2024, Glasnow will earn a base salary of $25M, while carrying a total salary of $25M
      His service time of 5 years indicate he is in his last arb year , but the Rays bought it out last season.
      It is a weird set-up since it was not an extension it appears, but the Rays are always up against their budget restraints..
      https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tampa-bay-rays/tyler-glasnow-18345/

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  119. I hope Crawford can be that guy, but he needs more power to be anywhere like Carroll. What did he have, 25 HRs and 50 SBs? Crawford has the speed, and is an elite D player. And, he has shown the ability to hit the ball. Hoping he adds some power.

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    1. Do you believe Harper, Turner, Wheeler , Schwarber or even JTR will be the players they have been, in the next 3/4 years?
      Obviously not….strike while the iron is hot now.
      Crawford could be a prime trade piece for whatever Dave D needs to get the ring. And he may well use that.
      Crawford’s ETA is more than likely 2026, barring any injury setbacks.
      Dombrowski can see the core stars now will be fading or gone by the time Crawford has acclimated to the majors.

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    1. Just dawn on me why the Rays would do a contract like that….buying his arb years out BUT not extending the years out any further…..they are going to trade him to the highest bidder next month or come July.
      That is their MO…..they cannot afford the superstar contracts so it will be easier to trade a player under these circumstances to large market contending teams for a boatload of prospects.

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