This will serve as the Phillies’ discussion.
Just eight more wins.
The Phillies open the National League Championship Series vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight at the Bank. Wheeler vs. Gallen.
The Phillies submitted the same roster for the NLCS.
- Pitchers (13): Walker, Nola, Suarez, Alvarado, Sánchez, Soto, Strahm, Domínguez, Hoffman, Kerkering, Kimbrel, Lorenzen, and Walker.
- Catchers (2): Realmuto and Stubbs.
- Infielders (5): Bohm, Harper, Sosa, Stott, and Turner.
- Outfielders (6): Castellanos, Cave, Marsh, Pache, Rojas, and Schwarber.
FWIW, the Diamondbacks still worry me. They started from the sixth spot just like our Phillies last year.
Random stuff:
I’m considering restarting the daily recaps next year. There was some interest in this.
There was no interest in a Readers’ Prospect Poll.
Back from the land of “Bridge freezes before road surface”. Gatlinburg and the Smokies were just as great as they were in 2021. Although, I’m glad to be back where I can take my internet service for granted. Really sux when you are following directions on your phone and you get the message that there is no service.
The High Performance Camps started last week. No baseball activities so far.
- Clearwater
- Pitchers (21): Sam Aldegheri, Brandon Beckel, Cam Brown, Jean Cabrera, Ethan Chenault, Jake Eddington, Jayden Estanista, Marty Gair, Tristan Garnett, Mavis Graves, Esteban Jimenez, George Klassen, Tommy McCollum, Wesley Moore, Micah Ottenbreit, Wen-Hui Pan, Luke Russo, Enrique Segura, Casey Steward, Saul Teran, and Andrew Walling.
- Catchers (3): Jordan Dissin, Kehden Hettiger, and Jared Thomas.
- Infielders (9): Keaton Anthony, Zach Arnold, William Bergolla, Aidan Miller, Nikau Pouaka-Grego, Felix Reyes, Bryan Rincon, Devin Saltiban, and Bryson Ware.
- Outfielders (8): Emaarion Boyd, Raylin Heredia, Marcus Lee Sang, Avery Owusu-Asiedu, Leandro Pineda, Ricardo Rosario, Jordan Viars, and TJayy Walton.
- Dominican Academy
- Pitchers (21): Juan Amarante, Luis Avila, Wilmer Blanco, Alexis De La Cruz, Alexander De Los Santos, Josbel Garcia, Claudio Gatier, Jeffrey German, Luis Gonzalez, Jonh Henriquez, Joel Heredia, Maxwell Hernandez, Enderson Jean, Naoel Mejia, Brad Pacheco, Adilson Peralta, Danyony Pulido, Eduardo Robles, Raymon Rosario, John Sosa, and Ezequiel Ventura.
- Catchers (5): Yhoan Escalona, Alirio Ferrebus, Angel Mata, Guillermo Rosario, and Eduardo Tait.
- Infielders (7): Nolan Beltran, Aroon Escobar, Diego Gonzalez, Renair Manrique, Jarol Martinez, Yemil Rosario, and Marco Soto.
- Outfielders (8): Jaeden Calderon, Victor Cardoza, Leny Carela, Manolfi Jimenez, Jose Marchan, Jerffson Peña, Isaac Ramirez, and Santiago Torres.
The organization’s first free agency election occurred on October 13th when 3B Drew Ellis elected free agency. The first of many.
Key Dates
- October 9 – November 16: High Performance Camps
- October 15-24: League Championship Series
- October 27 – November 4, 2023: World Series
- November 4, 2023: Game 7 of the World Series (if needed)
- November TBA: Last day for a club to make a qualifying offer to an eligible former player who became a free agent, the 5th day after World Series, 5 p.m. EST
- November TBA: Last day for a player to accept a qualifying offer, 10th day after World Series, 5 p.m. EST
- November 7-9, 2023: General Managers’ meetings, Scottsdale, AZ
- November 14-16: Owners meetings, Arlington, TX
- November 17, 2023: Last day for teams to offer 2024 contracts to unsigned players on their 40-man rosters
- December 4-7, 2023: Winter meetings, Nashville, TN
- December 6, 2023: Winter meeting draft, Nashville, TN
- December 15, 2023: Close of the 2022-2023 international signing period, 5 p.m. EST
- January 8 – February 9, 2024: High Performance Camp
- January 12, 2024: Salary arbitration figures exchanged
- January 15, 2024: Opening of the 2023-2024 international signing period, 9 a.m. EST
- January 29 – February 16, 2024: Salary arbitration hearings, Scottsdale, AZ
- February 13, 2024: Voluntary reporting date for pitchers, catchers, and injured players
- February 18, 2024: Voluntary reporting date for other players
- February 23, 2024: Mandatory reporting date
- March 1-10, 2024: Period for renewing contracts of unsigned players on 40-man rosters
- March 20-21, 2024: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego in Seoul, South Korea
- March 28, 2024: Opening day for all other teams, active rosters reduced to 26 players
- June 8-9, 2024: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia at London
- July 13, 2024: Futures Game, Arlington, TX
- July 14-16, 2024: Amateur draft, Arlington, TX
- July 16, 2024: All-Star Game, Arlington, TX
- September 29, 2024: Regular season ends
Transactions (10/11 thru 10/16)
October 2023
10/13/2023 – 3B Drew Ellis elected free agency
Phuture Phillies 
Top keeping the same roster for the NLCS, I wonder, if the Phillies move onto the World Series, will Top put Rhys on the WS roster! Perhaps ilo of Cave or Pache.
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Do you think Rhys will be fully healthy by then? They still have not put Hoskins on the postseason roster. He doesn’t seem ready.
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So very hard to judge what a guy who hasn’t played all year can give you as a pinch hitter because essentially that is all Rhys would be on the roster IMO.
He’s not going to play 1B.
Is Rob going to make him the DH against a tough lefty and play the platoon with Schwarber and he?
Say we’re playing TX they have Montgomery, Chapman and Perez as their tough LHP matchups.
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I agree, IF Rhys is on the roster, he’ll be on solely as a PH. And can he even run? Can he score from 2B on a hit?
Facing LH pitching in Clearwater will be a lot different than facing Chapman in a live situation. Rhys will probably tell you he’s ready, but I have doubts.
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HPCs in Clearwater…….was Justin Crawford excused?
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Back to Aaron Nola’s upcoming FA, I knew that he was going to get seriously paid (since last offseason), it was just a matter of how much. Once he posted a 2 WAR season, I didn’t think he was going to get $200M but if he does, good for him. I just hope the Phillies won’t be the ones giving him that type of contract.
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I think Nola will get a $28M AAV offering…the question is for how many years going into his age31 season. I assume he would like St Louis…up the river from Baton Rouge and his home area. But I cannot see the Cardinals doling out 7 or 8 years for a 31 year old pitcher.
It would be a real kick in the butt, especially for the Phillies’ management, if the Cardinals start out and make the same offer as did the Phillies, and he signs with them.
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I’m not sure where this rumour is coming from about St. Louis. It’s not like St. Louis is close to being a good team and they traded away a bunch of guys during the trade deadline. St Louis needs way more pitching than Nola.
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Where do most rumours start anyways!
Could be Nola’s agent, agents have an agenda and that is a good way for them to get the market going for their clients.
The teams really cannot say anything due to tampering rules during the season, which I think also includes the play-offs.
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Wow! It really sounds like you want Nola out. Why?
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Jim, your experience is why I only buy cars with satnav. Sure it’s not as cool as the latest Maps, but you don’t need a cell connection. I vacation regularly in upstate NY where there is often no cell service. Amazing that the country still isn’t blanketed with cell service outside of wilderness areas. Proof that the private sector can’t handle such things.
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There was some rumors about Fuld being a candidate for Boston’s GM opening a while back and I mentioned it was just some local guys doing some speculating.
Well, The Athletic is now reporting that Fuld declined to interview for the job at all. So that’s that. Can’t blame him, the BoSox have more dysfunction than people realize.
Anyways, almost game time. Let’s get that win tonight so I’ll be slightly less anxious at the game tomorrow.
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Matt, your prediction was spot on. Schwarber joined the party.
But the Phillies seem to always find a way to take it to the limit almost each game. Again a few more early runs would have kept the suspense less at the end. Game had a lot of the Game 2 Braves game in it. I sure was glad to see the Phillies get off that 4-0 lead. Go get them tomorrow!
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I am so happy with the results of this team but would really enjoy more clutch hitting.
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Was at the game last night with my son and grandson and the place was rocking.
Never sure what the weather will be like in mid-October but it was a very nice night. Will be a real contrast moving between Philly/Arizona for the series. Might see 50 degrees swings in the game time temps.
Also started to get game 2 Atlanta vibes when they jumped out early and then couldn’t get hits with RISP when Arizona started chipping away.
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3up, Denny, Don, I agree with all of you. I was nervous at 4-0, and wanted to get off that number. Breathed easier with the 5th run, but we left too many guys on base. Love that we won, don’t get me wrong, but with the energy that those 3 HRs brought to the Bank, on top of an already frenzied crowd, should have resulted in a clutch base hit. That would have broken the game open, and given me much less anxiety!! I think we get a great game from Nola tonight, and some clutch hitting. Bohm did hit the ball hard a couiple of times. Maybe one falls with RISP tonight!
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I counted 5 line drives that went right at fielders. Baseball can be cruel.
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Matt, we need another of your predictions for tonight. As Mad Dog says on his promos for High Heat the only thing that matters now is Win. I do not know about going to the well too often, but it seems Phillies sure are in similar situations a lot. Hopefully some of these HRs can come with some guys on base. That would allow some cushion. Go Phils.
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After 9 seasons, and a 32WAR career with the Phillies, these next two or so weeks may be the end of Nola’s career wearing a Phillies uniform.
I think he will want that ring, and go out on a bang, and while at it, further position himself for a large payday come this off-season.
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I don’t subscribe to the conclusion that Nola is gone. Sure he could be but it also could be a scenario where he wants to weigh all his options and offers on an open market.
Again same as JT. He may find the Phillies offer was pretty darn good and return. Phillies have no reason to outbid themselves.
To that end though we made it to game 6 of the WS last year. I can’t even think about that now LOL.
Thomson is starting to worry me though with the way he uses certain guys. You go to the well one too many times and its eventually going to bite you.
Not sure if anyone noticed but Wheeler’s velo was down last night. Yeah still hitting 95 but by the 5th-6th he was showing signs of being gassed.
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Aaron Nola is as good as gone. If the Phillies only wanted to give him a 4 or 5 year deal, I doubt the Phillies will go more than that during the offseason. The Phillies gave Cole Hamels 6/144 but he was 29 entering FA.
As for JT, it’s not like he didn’t get paid. JT got 5/115.5 and as of right now, he’s still the highest paid catcher. So the Phillies made him the highest paid catcher. The Phillies will not make Aaron Nola the highest paid pitcher.
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For the last couple of years, Wheeler has consistently lost velocity throughout his starts. He’s usually 97 or 98 in the first and it slowly goes down from there. It really doesn’t affect him too much until he has trouble hitting 95. Then he’s as good as done.
That said, Wheeler’s evolution as a pitcher, even while with the Phillies, has been remarkable. When he first got to the team, he has a standard repertoire, did NOT, have a rising fastball and, in the old style of pitching, “tried to keep the ball down” and rarely pitched up in the zone. He was still excellent, but you thought there could and should be more.
Now he has a devastating, rising 4 seam FB, wicked 2 seam sinker, a good curve and a very good sweeper. He’s a true ace.
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Also agree Nola is gone. They should not match the types of offers I expect he will get from other teams.
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Nola goes down as one of the Phillie best:
Top Ten By WAR:
1. Robin Roberts…69.8
2. Steve Carlton…..64.6
3. Grover Alexander…60.3
4. Cole Hamels…….42.0
5. Curt Schilling……36.8
6. Chris Short……..32.1
7. Aaron Nola……..32.0
8. Jim Bunning……..31.3
9. Charlie Buffinton….27.2
10. Charlie Ferguson….25.6
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Between 75-80 pitch count his FB velo begins wanning downward..
Unfortunately it is usually around the third time thru the lineup for the hitters, so they make the adjustments to him, and he also initially makes the adjustments……but we really never know if it does totally work out for a few more innings, since Top invariably will pull him for a pen guy when he is not at his peak and begins ticking downward.
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Hi! You also said that Nola is going to get a large payday come this off-season. In terms of years and money, what are you thinking for Aaron Nola?
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Robin & Jim,
I too travel in the Adirondacks and often lose cell signals. I find it very helpful to download county maps on my phone prior to my drive. Often times pulling them up works better than navigation with bad connectivity.
I was very comfortable last night until Seranthony walked the first batter then promptly threw the ball into center field. That brought Alvarado in before we needed. Thank goodness Alvarado and Kimbrel took care of business.
I was also good with pulling Wheeler after 6. He had given up a home run and some very loud outs. Better one inning too soon rather than 1 batter too late.
Loved the approach of our hitters last night. They spat on the junk off the plate and attacked the fastballs for strikes. If they can keep doing that going forward, we should be fine. Looking forward to 8:07 tonight!
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Nola is going to get paid. The Mechanics adjustment will excuse many of the negatives from his season. He pitched well tonight … he’s going to be up there. To me, his stuff plays long term. Id sign him, even if high. Here is why – Andrew Painter/Abel/… one of them is likely to be pitch to a #2 position when Nola’s performance may drop, but they will be at a bargain. I don’t care who’s getting paid, as long as they are team oriented .
Also, Marsh’s slide at the plate. Might he have been safe? I feel like the dust kicked up and blocked the vision of the ump. The catchers mitt seems to miss the upper body of marsh, and his hand slide in before he was tagged at the waist. I was surprised they didn’t review it. He may have been out, but he was a lot closer than I initially thought, probably safe. What did you guys see?
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Had 6 people together watching game and it was unanimous that Marsh was safe, even tho we had Phillies’ glasses on, we were being fair. Why save a challenge at that time of the game?
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That’s what I thought. In real time, yeah looks like he’s out, because he barely gets to the plate, but in slow mooooo, you can see. More than just our bias. Thanks for replying, curious if I was just losing it or what.
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Initial reaction from some in my house said Marsh was stupid to run there. I said no, it was a good choice bc he might have been safe and even if he were thrown out, we still had runners on first and third. If he didn’t go, there was no chance of scoring and we’d have runners on second and third.
I would have asked for a review if I were the manager.
I kind of wish Marsh had taken a wider angle to the plate and reached in with just his hand… making it harder to tag him out. Hopefully he’ll review that with the coaches and learn from it.
5 more hours… Can’t wait!!!
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Marsh’s “mistake” was that he started initially and then stopped until he saw the ball bounced off the 1st baseman’s glove/body. If they had the contact play on, he scores easily. Once he stopped, probably should have just stayed at 3rd.
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“Nola……. The Mechanics adjustment will excuse many of the negatives from his season.”
…..the adljustment, he decided to switch and look at the pitch clock from the other side of the plate. The side he looked at prior to the pitch thru him off.
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Hi! You said that Nola was going to get paid this off-season. In terms of years and money what are you thinking for Aaron Nola?
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I agree on Marsh. My Wife and I both thought he was safe, and more so on the replay. Catcher missed his upper body and tags him at the waist. I believed his hand got in there. Tonight, I believe there will be a situation with a runner or runners on and they Walk Bryce to get to Bohm. I believe he then comes through. Optimistic based on him squaring up last night and making solid contact. Just had no luck. Tonight I think it is different. Hoping Nola pitches a great game and earns himself whatever he can get. I don’t see us giving him 7 or 8 years, so if that is the # of years, he will be elsewhere. Maybe, as he says, he loves it here, but $ usually wins out. Go Phils!
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Topper has been really good in my opinion, but there is one decision that doesn’t make sense to me. Why is Bohm hitting 4th? Castellanos is on fire. He would be much better behind Harper imo.
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Casty was hitting up in the lineup and was somewhat of a bust, since he was dropped in the order he is on fire.
Bohm will come thru tonight!
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v1, the guys on MLB were discussing that topic. O’Dowd said they would not change as long as team is winning. Said he could see it later if results change.
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Hi Jim! Who do you think will stay with the Phillies this off-season? Will Nola get paid? If he does, how many years and how much money do you give him?
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Hi everyone! Who do you all think will stay with the Phillies this off-season? Will Nola get paid? If he does, how many years and how much money do you give him? Who leaves the Phillies?
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Aaron Nola is going to get at least 6/175 or 7/200 and it likely won’t be with the Phillies.
If Aaron Nola is gone, Michael Lorenzen is in play but not for a multi-year deal. I think only 1 year deals for FA pitching starters.
If Kimbrel is willing to sign for $10M, he’ll be back. If he wants $16M, he won’t be.
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What would you anti-up for 1 year of Lorenzen? I haven’t seen much lately from him that makes him all that desirable.
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I would give 1/12 to either Lorenzen or Martin Perez and I’m hoping for a bounce back season. Mick Abel and Nick Nelson would be my backups.
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Guru/Sophia – I think Nola is back. I think he ages well. IMHO, we are seeing a change baseball team roster construction. Smart teams will not wave off the early playoff team exits, but starting following the Astros & Phillies. You make the WS in back to back years, knock off the favorites… GMs are going to notice. Same with the Astros – 7 ALCS in a row? Yeah … they see it’s a front loaded SR. SP this offseaon is going to be SKY high. Snell & Nola will give everybody raises. I’m guessing 28mil-30mil per year – 6 yes – 7 years
I can’t see Nola leaving now. How could you leave for 26mil vs 28mil? If they clubhouse is really as tight as they say, Topper comes back, I can’t see him leaving. The team is stacked, and it’s fun.
Philadelphia is single handedly saving baseball. This team is THAT good.
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You know that the Astros let Justin Verlander walk last offseason right? And he was only available for trade once the Mets started stinking it up.
Cots is projecting the Phillies to have a $209M payroll WITHOUT any FA additions. $237M is the luxury tax threshold. You can do the math.
Note that the Phillies exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2023.
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SP, imo is going to be highly targeted in FA, it usually is, but more so than usual. I think Walker could get Traded to free up money, he should be palatable for a team on the rise.
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If the Phillies don’t want Walker, and we’re already a playoff team, why would other teams want Walker? The Mets, Walker’s previous team, didn’t even bother attaching a QO on him and basically let him walk and replaced him with Kodai Senga which was a brilliant move. Walker is still owed 3/48 and he’s had issues keeping his velocity up. I think the Phillies will have to eat close to half his contract in order to move him.
I’m pretty sure if I asked my friend, the Blue Jays fan, if he wants Walker, he would laugh at me.
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Walker is actually a useful player. He’s a really nice, fairly consistent, 4th starter on a good offensive team – there’s a reason his record was so good. He’s a guy you use to rack up extra wins during the season, but you don’t want him to pitch in any high leverage situations. The Phillies gave him far too much money and too many years, but it doesn’t bother me too much if they don’t trade him.
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If Walker gets out of the first inning he seems to be able to hold opposing teams at bey……a useful 4th/5th guy in the rotation.
IMO Top starts Walker on Friday, with Sanchez coming in ASAP when trouble brews…..similar to what Top did last year with Thor/Falter. Though the Walker/Sanchez duo is better than last year’s duo.
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Walker has great splitter, has he ever pitched in the postseason?
Perhaps he gets a chance to shine.
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Don’t want to jinx him but Bohm throwing some serious leather at the rattlers tonight!
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Best def game I’ve ever seen him play… by far
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Nola was so elite tonight. What a team. Unbelievable how good they are. They have 4 hitters with a playoff OPS over 1.000 and 3 over 1.300. Dominant bullpen. 3 great starters and 3 good SPs. What a team.
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Totally agree with your points. I am amazed at how all the hitters are laying off pitches out of the strike zone. I had to watch the game to the end just to see Kerkering pitch.
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I might just be the offense’s good luck charm. First saw them demolish the Braves, now saw them demoralize the snakes in person. Awesome game. Great to see contributions from everyone.
On another note, I had a weird thought. It was widely covered about how Topper was ready to retire until he took over for Girardi. But how long does he want to hold the job? I wonder if he’d decide to hang it up after a championship.
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DanK…..if they happen do it, I think he comes back to try to repeat..has not been done in 23 years…Yankees did a three-peat in 2000, Giants won three in 5 years. So I think he would try.
My concern is Dombrow….he is in his late 60s now, and he may just retire with two rings….or he may move on down to Florida…..Marlins PoBO is open and Ng left becasue they passed her over for the promotion…..maybe a switch.
I just hope Sam Fuld remains, but he may get some feelers also.
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Does anyone know the schedule for the World Series? Is it set or can it be adjusted due to ending of LCS?
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It’s set. Game 1 is on the 27th, and game 7 (if needed) is on the 4th. Days off will be on the 29th and the 2nd.
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Thank you Dan.
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DanK….is that set if both the Phillies and Rangers sweep by Saturday the 21st?
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Romus, I think Dan is correct. Think TV is the ruler of this. Not positive.
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Yeah. The schedule doesn’t change regardless. Only thing that’s up in the air is the team participating.
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Romus, it looks like the IU guy has finally joined the HR party. LOL
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Don….just a matter of time.
I like the fact he is so stoic no matter how he is doing.
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Romus, I was just on the IU basketball site. One of my other teams. Wanted to let you know that Schwarbs and the Phillies have got the attention and approval of several on site. Some are even Cubbie fans like many around here. Many are saying the Phillies are really fun to watch and also dissing the Cubs for not keeping Kyle and Nick.
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Romus, I was just on the IU basketball site. One of my other teams. Wanted to let you know that Schwarbs and the Phillies have got the attention and approval of several on site. Some are even Cubbie fans like many around here. Many are saying the Phillies are really fun to watch and also dissing the Cubs for not keeping Kyle and Nick.
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Well, that was sure fun! Nola was outstanding, Bohm played outstanding D, and everyone contributed. Kelly pitched very well for them, but Nola was better. Just outstanding and he has earned back whatever he lost earlier in the season. Rojas is struggling at the plate, but he is my every day CF regardless. Just a terrific game, and I don’t believe the Series comes back to the Bank.
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The World Series does, just not this series!
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Kerkering … how do you do anything with that first pitch – strike on the black?
https://x.com/PitchingNinja/status/1714480800157290647?s=20
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I believe baseball as a whole, is regaining steam, for the following reasons:
Pitch clock
Story – condensed game highlights
Playoff expansion (granted over a few years)
Citizen’s Bank Park
Yeah, maybe I’m in a vacuum, but the fact that the national media has shifted the Philly PHANS narrative … from angry mob to an electric vibe … other team’s fans are noticing ..trying to match. They are asking, what’s wrong with us 🙂 why can’t we be that crazy passionate! That looks fun! It’s selling baseball back to America.
Maybe not that heartys warmy way I described it… but something has shifted, and Citizen Bank Park is accelerating the regrowth. What is crazy, is that I would still consider a portion of the phans at the bank, to be our “B” team. Those prices are boxing out some of the louder mouths … so our “B” team is still crushing other teams “A” team fans. (Note I’m not describing the ones on here fortunate to go as “B” teamers)
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Well, can get great seats in Arizona for $70 (first base line, lower section), so not catching on there!!!
$6 gets you in the third level.
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Ha, I just looked. I really wanted to go to a game but couldn’t get tickets for the home games … I bet it’s cheaper to take a family of 4 out to AZ than a home game … close enough
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Trust me – it is. My son and I saw Game 3 NLCS last year and wanted to do 2023’s version, Game 1 (Monday). We did. My son said exactly what you thought – it would have been cheaper for us to go to Arizona and watch the games there. But – it really is not the same thing – for sure !!!!!!!
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I’m trying. I would’ve paid the prices, but would like to get them from the Phillies vs secondary market. Too much shenanigans… but I’m willing to gamble for the WS. I gotta see this LIVE, even if it’s by myself standing room only. My son is not old enough to understand what’s going on.
Where are you guys buying your tickets if outside the Phillies season ticket offers or lottery?
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Tac3 – I got them from Stubhub – the commission after the purchase was the killer. But…if you want to go….? Row 6 section 130 – absolutely mind blowing seats !
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It’s premature to predict what the Phillies will do this offseason. Winning/not winning the WS could have a direct impact on their plans. Having said that, I think a couple of things are slam dunks.
1️⃣ Dave Dombrowski will be back.
2️⃣ Rob Thomson will be back.
The Phillies POBO has already signed an extension. He couldn’t ask for a better situation. He’s got the full confidence of ownership & the autonomy to build the club as he sees fit (including open check book). Execs across the league are in awe of what he’s done here (he’s mentioned the amount of texts he’s received).
On top of all that, MLB is not going to be expanding any time soon so there is little for him to do in Nashville.
The manager is not old. I was shocked when I found out he’s a few months younger than me. He’s heading a great team with an opportunity to win multiple championships. And he’s making more money than he’s ever earned in his career,
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I have a theory on DD and his autonomy and direction. I believe Middleton is willing to continue spending great amounts of money but I also believe he has given DD a directive to ensure the Phillies get good and stay good.
My evidence? At the trade deadline, in a very un-DD-like fashion, the Phillies effectively did . . . nothing (I mean, they got Lorenzen, but, relatively speaking they did very little). And I loved it. It showed they both trusted their players (and their farm system) and that they are looking to build a dynasty, not just push all the chips into the middle of the table.
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I agree Hinkie on those two. I think there are several players who can be put in the slam dunk category as well. Probably at least 12 to 14 or so.
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And while we were focusing on the big club, Gabriel Rincones continues his excellent AFL season. He is a huge breakout candidate. He has power, he has plate discipline, he steals bases. Very intriguing.
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And Keith Law completely ignored him in his write up which makes Rincones even higher on my prospect list. And on another topic, wasn’t Cave safe at 3B? I thought so.
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KLaw may not be entirely sold him yet……probably his K-rate of 25% needs to settle down a bit …if he can get it to 20% or less, that would be helpful in his projection. His BB rate is excellent at 11%.
Maybe he should ask his former college teammate, Nolan Schanuel, the secrets in contact.
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Cave’s attempt at a triple was a close play. Looked safe to me – tie goes to the runner where I’m from!
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Pretty sure he was safe, just not worth using a challenge at that point.
I feel bad for him, but at least he got a good story out of it. And Phillies fans everywhere will back him up every time he says he hit a triple.
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AFL News…..Jon Mayo on Phillies and Ricones:
https://www.mlb.com/news/phillies-arizona-fall-league-overview-2023?t=arizona-fall-league-coverage
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He was mad at the 30 grade run tool 🤣
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Have we ever had a prospect, who was given a 30 grade run tool, steal 32 bases in a minor league or MLB season? When a prospect is pegged at that level, I expect him to be a base stealing threat like Pedro Feliz (13 SB/12 CS over 12 years).
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I would give these ratings:
20: Alejandro Kirk
30: Kyle Schwarber
40: Pedro Feliz
SBs obviously depends a lot on speed, but timing matters too. Schwarber picks his spots and he has 22 career SBs over 9 years.
Pedro Feliz’s career OBP is .288. He wasn’t on base enough to attempt SBs.
Giving Rincones a 30 run tool is disrespectful. Good for him to change that narrative.
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Hard to understand the run grading.
Assume they do the timing from home-to-first as one criteria.
Then combinations of home- to -second, first- to- third.
Then the dash times for selcted distances…ie 40 yard.
Assume all times are weighted.
He said his slow start from home-to-first carried over to the rest of his evaluation, probably with the most weight..
Who knows….he seems to be proving them wrong one way or another so far.
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Thanks. Rincones’ 2023 SB figures are similar to Weston Wilson (2023 – 32 SB in MiLB; added 3 more with the Phillies). Wilson’s previous best MiLB season totals were 17 and 12 SBs. Do we have someone in the system who has taken on the old Davey Lopes role?
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I read Rincones’ interview. He came across extremely well. Like a very bright, hard-working and determined person. Very impressive and he’s probably my number one breakout candidate for next year.
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The umpires should be ashamed of themselves.
But Thomson also has way too much confidence in Kimbrel.
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Dan, I agree. HP ump missed many calls the entire game. Sure, Angel Hernandez was not back there. Not sure how the check swing can be missed by any of the umps. Obvious. I question the Orion move. I thought we would see Dominguez with the lead. Oh well. Go for it tomorrow.
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Dan, I agree. HP ump missed many calls the entire game. Sure, Angel Hernandez was not back there. Not sure how the check swing can be missed by any of the umps. Obvious. I question the Orion move. I thought we would see Dominguez with the lead. Oh well. Go for it tomorrow.
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Ranger pitched great. We couldn’t hit. Plain and simple, we saw a guy we hadn’t seen before and we missed or fouled back pitches we should have been on and swung at breaking pitches that were not close. Looked off balance all night. Orion didn’t have his best stuff and Kimbrel was not good at all, but this game was on the bats.
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Every time Ranger has a game like this, his price tag goes up . . . by a lot. If it were me, I wouldn’t mess around. Sign him while there’s a good deal to be had. Ranger is on the cusp of doing some very special things in his career. He’s an ascending player and one who could have a long period of excellence.
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Phillies must get away from thinking long ball in Chase.
Park factors by Savant indicate Chase is 26th in baseball for the HR frequency.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2023&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=&sort=12&sortDir=desc
Less lift and more level.
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that’s not how baseball works Romus. that’s not how hitting works. a batter doesn’t change a swing between games.
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Just look to make contact…..go with the pitch… I see Marsh, Turner and Stott able to do it quite often. Harper has done it when presed to do it.
Basically it is the two strike approach.
Three players that may not be able to do it are Castellanos, Schwarber and for some reason lately JTR, who seems to be in a pull mode.
They know what has to be done…….if a player is unable to do it , then he could be looking at a long day.
For sure……the HR will be scarce in Chase.
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You are overreacting to one game. They lost last night because they struck out 9 times and hit into 2 double plays. Panicking and changing your approach would be a disastrous idea that would surely hurt the team.
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I know I am old school, but I would have bunted Stott with Harper and Bohm on in top of 7th. I was surprised when announcers said he had 1 sacrifice bunt but not shocked. Runners on 2nd and 3rd just put more pressure on the pitcher and defense. Maybe he makes 2 wild pitches instead of 1. But after getting the lead to me the important think was putting another 0 on the board for the Dbacks. Letting them tie the game in two batters just gave all the momentum back to them. On a different note, did any of you see that the Astros are now after last night 18-3 in road playoff games. That is unreal. Two of those were at CBP.
Now just need to get the game today and get back the advantage.
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https://x.com/UmpireAuditor/status/1715256719125934212?s=20
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On the umpires. Even though they continue to miss a lot of B/S calls, they are better as a group behind the plate than your average in-season umpire, so while I’m not thrilled about it, I’m not sure how much better you can do with humans calling games.
That said, I have never seen such consistently bad calls on checked swings as I have this postseason. First, they get umpires who call the slightest twitch of bat movement a swinging strike. This made me think that, perhaps, umpires were told to be more aggressive on those calls. I was wrong because now I’m seeing umpires rule “no swing” when the batter brings the bat through and well beyond the zone. One wretched call after the next.
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Iassogna is absolutely not better than your average umpire. He’s a known awful umpire. So is Andy Fletcher (and Doug Eddings in the ALCS, while we’re at it). But Tripp Gibson is on this crew and is generally excellent. Which is why I’m so pissed off he hasn’t been behind the plate yet, while two awful umps have been.
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I went back and read about him. You’re right. He’s atrocious. But, on the whole, I believe the umpiring has been above average this postseason calling balls and strikes.
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This site is great for us Phillies fans because we can vent, praise, question, criticize, and complain all things Philadelphia baseball. Most of us have done it more than others but just about all of us have done it one time or another.
Today, I’m going to question and I don’t expect anyone to agree with me but I would like your insights. It is what took place in the bottom of the ninth inning when the Diamondbacks filled the bases on Kimbrel with just one out.
I realize the infield needs to come in to cut off the run at home. What I didn’t get was why Rojas was playing so deep in center field. If he (all of them) play closer to home plate, it doesn’t make a difference if the ball goes over them.
If it is a deep fly, the runner tags up, scores, and the game is over. If it is a soft liner like Marte hit, Rojas has much more of a chance to catch the ball and throw to the plate and cut off that game winning run. See what I’m saying? Thoughts?
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Ciada – with his range, you are 100 percent correct. Good observations. The outfielders should all have been playing in.
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ve seen that before vs a P we have not faced before. Today, we regroup, and the bats are back tonight!
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I don’t know what happened to the first part of my post? What I tried to say was I agree with Don, and I would have bunted there. Eliminate the DP and have 2d and 3rd. But they do not think like that, so it was not going to happen. We tried too hard to hit HRs, and were off balance the whole game. Castles was swinging out of his cleats. I have seen this before vs a P we are seeing for the 1st time, and the whole lineup was guilty of it. Swinging at way too many Pitches that were not strikes. We regroup today, and tonight the bats are back, and we win this game!
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I think Phillies offense gets back on track tonight. The question is … will Phils pitching be as good/almost as good in game 4 as it’s been in games 1-3?
Cristopher Sanchez has earned the start, but TBH, I’m a little surprised Thomson has picked him over Taijuan Walker. You’re basically giving the DBacks the same look 2 games in a row. Sanchez & Ranger are not just both LHPs, they come with the same arsenal: lots of low 90s FB/CH & mix in a breaker. Could be a 7-6 type of contest.
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I was a proponent of starting Lorenzen for one time through the order and then switching to Sanchez for the next time or two. Would have kept them off balance by switching looks/pitcher types, while also keeping Taijuan’s 1st inning implosions out of play.
But oh well. We just need to see how our rookie does after 3 weeks of rest. And I hope our offense takes last night as a punch in the face so that they come back with a knockout of their own again.
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DanK…I was thinking Walker for the first few innings, unless he gets raked early on, then Sanchez for as long as possible.
Walker is well rested but rusty. Sanchez also the same.
They all throw bullpens and sim games so hopefully that is beneficial.
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Who is the rookie? If you’re thinking Sanchez, you must have slept through last season.
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You got me thinking on this….last season Sanchez pitched 40 innings…I think, it use to be, until a pitcher pitches 50 innings in a season he may be still considered a rookie according to MLB.com Prospect Gradings.
Hitters use to be 150PAs. Now that may just be a technicality. MLB however may go by service time.
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I did not.
I call him a rookie because 1) he made 4 total starts prior to this year in the majors and 2) he’s basically a different pitcher than he was last year.
He barely exceeded rookie status last year, but never had what one would traditionally consider a rookie season.
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Stubbs is pretty confident…the other day he says….”We’ll be bee-lining it for the water.”……..meaning the pool beyond the OF.
A little fuel to get the Snakes rattled..
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I think Sanchez is the correct choice to start tonight’s game because I think he has the better “out” pitch… his changeup. That said, I thought Topper would have picked Walker. Fingers crossed CS has a good game and the bats wake up again!
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This game is extremely important and it is a game that reveals their biggest weakness; a sort of weak-ish back end of the rotation, at least on paper. If they win this game, it’s extremely difficult to imagine Arizona taking the series. If they lose this game, I think they still win the series, but then it’s a dog fight.
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If I’m topper, I manage this game much the way he managed Game 1 of the NLDS – at least if it’s a close game.
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The big difference is in the timing of days off. he knew they would play game 1, off day, play game 2, off day … easy to say you are going to blow out the bullpen when you have that schedule.
With the games yesterday and tomorrow, they will need a little length, assuming it’s a close game. From what I read, Walker isn’t a relief option since he takes so long to warm up. I’d guess he’d be a long guy in the event of a blow out in either direction.
I’m hoping for 5 from Sanchez tonight, I know that’s asking a lot.
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I think this is a really important game for the Phillies. Gallen will be difficult tomorrow and I am not one who has complete faith in the final games being in Philly. Even with a great home advantage you can still lose a game. Astros proved that a year ago. Hope Phils get the win tonight and put the pressure back on Dbacks tomorrow. Bats need to pick back up. I think this team will bounce back tonight.
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Playing some sloppy baseball early.
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Including chasing a lot of bad pitches.
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Phillies are feeling the pressure.
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They’re putting too much pressure on this kid, (Orion) and not helping him out by constantly calling for sliders, but if he survives this year we’ll have a pretty good relief pitcher IMO.
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As I said, way too much confidence in Kimbrel.
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D’s love seeing Kimbrell come in, again, to flip the game in their favor, again. He is cooked.
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There is zero chance I would have pitched Orion or Kimbrel tonight! I would have taken my chances with Lorenzen. Kimbrel has nothing left. Orion’s lost his slider command and I can’t believe we are blowing this game!
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There is zero chance I would have pitched Orion or Kimbrel tonight! I would have taken my chances with Lorenzen. Kimbrel has nothing left. Orion’s lost his slider command and I can’t believe we are blowing this game!
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Through game four, Diamondbacks’ likely MVP:
Kimbrell
He in late innings is as predictably ineffective as Walker in the first inning.
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Just awful pitching. Simply gave this game away. You simply cannot always pitch from behind to each batter every inning at the end of the game.
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It now appears Hader should be the Phillies target. Served the game on a platter to AZ. What a shame.
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Craig Kimbrel just turned into Mitch Williams. It was only a matter of time before Kimbrel crumbled, he’s getting up there in age.
It goes without saying that Kimbrel has lost his closer position for the playoffs.
Kerkering will be fine, but the pressure has to be immense for this kid. He’s pitching in high leverage situations and he’s just 22. He may be talented but I can’t imagine what’s going through his mind.
You figure Kimbrel and Kerkering won’t be available tomorrow. That means Lorenzen is pitching whether he’s ready or not.
Wheeler is going to have go 7 innings. Same with Gallen.
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woof… let 2 games escape them.. beating themselves and let dbacks hang in there too long
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Concerning Kerkering….JTR cannot keep calling on the slider/sweeper…..almost aligned with the the effects of Coors Field with breaking stuff, the Phoenix elevation does not lend itself to a good spin action , even with the humidor in place in the ballpark. Kerkering cannot make the adjustment becasue it is all knew for him there. JTR has to know that. Everything has to come off the kid’s FB, using it a little more, and hoping for better location in the zone.
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I said essentially the same thing below. Horribly called outing by Realmuto when Kerkering was on the mound. Astonishingly bad.
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I have a question for anyone. Phillies are up 2-1 in Series. Sanchez does not go as long as I am sure they hoped. But why not follow him with either Lorenzen or Walker. One threw a no hitter. One won 15 games. Maybe they could get through a couple innings or more. As soon as the Phillies brought in Hoffman for Sanchez I was concerned. Just too many outs left for the BP the way it has imploded of late. If one of them could have got through the 5th, then maybe the Phillies pull it out at the end. Announcers talked about one guy in a BP game can ruin it Phillies had 3 who could not throw strikes or keep the ball in the ballpark. I am not going to put blame on Kerkering. I agree the pressure is difficult. But for the vets not being able to throw strikes is inexcusable. Guess we are going to see again what the team is made of but last night was a gut punch.
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Don…….Top, Calitri and Cotham call the shots.
Agree….why not Lorenzen…he has done it quite a few times in the past.
Walker, I would not….not sure if he ever has come in relief, but of course this is a different animal when you are fighting to get to the WS.
Hoffman looks to be the real deal, maybe he should have been the 7th or 8th inning guy…who knows.
IMO, tonite is a must win…cannot go back to Philly trailing by a game.
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I agree with you Romus, but I looked up and saw Lorenzen and Walker as the 2 remaining options, I said it’s a coin flip.
Lorenzen has done nothing since the no-hitter, also has his time with BB’s. Walker’s stuff is very hittable and comes and goes like the weather.
Please DD find a closer that throws strikes. It doesn’t need to be filthy. Sick of 58′ fastballs in the dirt, breaking balls 2′ off the plate and hit batters at crunch time……….ahhhhhh that felt really good! Today we win!
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It’s pretty bad when you have pitcher on a 4 year, $72 m contract that isn’t good enough to pitch in the postseason. I love DD, but, man, he does some really foolish contracts.
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Walker wasn’t a bad contract. He did exactly what he was paid to do. He had a 2.5 fWAR season. That’s worth $18mil. Won 15 games as a 4th starter. That’s the cost of a 4th starter. Playoff baseball is different. Arizona didn’t pitch their 4th starter either. Also Sanchez has been very good too. I got no problem with the Walker signing.
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Agree V1, Walker did what they needed from him. He kept them in games and ate innings in the regular season. He’s part of the reason their bullpen had the fewest innings pitched coming into the postseason.
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I agree he’s fine for the regular season, wasn’t a bust and I’ll even agree that he pitched to his contract if you look at the regular season alone. But, when you pay someone $72 million to be a 3rd/4th starter (he’s being paid as a 3rd starter), you want them to be a good enough to be a 4th starter in the playoffs. He’s not and that deficiency had a very bad cascading effect on the entire bullpen. And, he’s so flawed as a pitcher that, in the playoffs, you can’t use him anywhere else. So I do have a problem with that at that price and for that contract duration.
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Top and staff elect to keep Walker on the play-off rosters for the past three series’.
And he just stands on the top step cheering the lads on.
Was not used in any games.
Assume…will be the same if they get to the World Series.
Now a rational individual would think……if you are not going to use a regular season starter in any series…why not add aother BP arm to the roster instead to augment the bullpen.
Top even stated yesterday…..I will tend to use the BP arms more in play-off baseball than regular season baseball…..becasue I want to preserve the bullpen thru 162.
I suppose Top wants Walker to feel a part of the team though not being used yet in one game.
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He actually does have a “role” on this team for the playoffs. And that’s to give the team multiple innings in a laugher of a game so they don’t use up the bp for the next game(s). That’s not nothing. Eating up 4-6 innings to keep the bullpen fresh is a useful skill.
But, quite intentionally, he’s not going to pitch meaningful innings.
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Game 2…..Nola comes out after the 6th…Phillies have that large lead…Top went with Hoffman, Strahm and finally Kerkering….that was the one game I figured he could have inserted Walker in the 7th inning. But chose not to.
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Is Walker or Lorenzen been throwing somewhere in game situations to be ready or are both “worthless” right now?
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Both are with the team….so bullpen sessions….though Lorenzen does warm up during the game at times.
Walker is the only player not to appear in any games in the play-offs so far……..not sure how he feels about that, but can imagine what a competitive athlete would feel,
Even Stubbs got into one game.
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The late inning relievers were terrible. Kerkering (again too many sliders), Soto (this guy saved 30+ games last year?), and of course Kimbrell (can’t get the big outs). But, to me, the game was lost in the sixth inning. They luck out with the high bouncer to score 2 and make it 4-2. Bohm gets thrown out at second for the first out. Stott walks and steals second with Harper on third. What happens next? Realmuto strikes out and Castellanos grounds out. Those two runs left on in scoring position changed the game.
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I still think they can and will win this series, although, obviously, it’s possible they will lose. They are a significantly better team.
That said, Topper’s managerial prowess will be pushed to the limits. Kimbrel was a disaster – there’s little more to say about that. But I have to say I’ve rarely seen a catcher call a pitcher as poorly as Realmuto called Kerkering’s outing. The guy throws a moving 98 MPH fastball and couldn’t locate his slider. Why on earth did he insist on having him pitch backwards when this was the case? I think for the only time I can remember, I was screaming at the TV for the catcher (Realmuto) to call a pitch (a fastball). Really weird and inexcusable stuff.
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I was doing the same. Same with the Kimbrel inning. Terrible pitch calling.
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Kimbrel was definitely shaking off calls. Kerkering wasn’t, so that’s all on either JT or the coaches.
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Agreed, plus the mental mistake from Sanchez. Then I’ll add, I think if Bryce gets up in the 9th, they at least tie the game again… marsh absolutely earned a walk, ridiculous how bad the umpire was calling pitches for dvackx “closer”. Felt like his palm was greased it was that bad
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I agree with ciada. I expected more runs when we had 2d and 3rd with JT and Castles due up. Obviously would have amde a big difference. Was very happy to see Rojas get that hit, and score, but was still worried about how many outs we still had to get. Why are 2 Pitchers on our Roster for the Playoffs that they have no intention to use. Lorenzen was my choice to come in. He has pitfched in relief before, and I didn’t want to see Orion or Kimbrel last night. We need a huge outing from Wheeler tonight and the bats have to wake up. We cannot count on Gallen throwing 3 1st pitch FBs, and we need a plan B to attack him.
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Romus, I agree that tonight is a must win. Winning 8 games in a row at home in the playoffs might be more than what is possible. I remember Jim mentioned that the Dbacks scared him. They are playing similar to the Phillies of 22. They are dangerous. Plus, for the most part their BP guys throw strikes. That is just killing the Phillies. The counts seem to be always 2-0 every batter.
I am worried who the Phillies have to close the game tonight even if Wheeler can go at least 7. Every time you turn around, they are either warming up Alvarado or bringing him in to put out a fire. Soto to me is maybe the biggest disappointment. He just never throws strikes.
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only pitchers ou can use in crunch time are Hoffman and Strahm. Kembrel cannot pitch tonight or maybe rest of series
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Many of the relievers , Don, are pitching back-to-back games now….hey, its all hands on deck now. They can rest tomorrow.
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Phillies are getting the solo homers but they can’t seem to get that big hit.
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Wheeler is a beast. Absolutely what we needed from him today. Now finish them off, Nola.
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Awesome game! Wheeler was truly an Ace, we hit HRs and played small ball! A double steal?! And Stott’s hit was huge! Just great stuff! Terrific D! Stott is a GG 2B and Rojas is so good he makes great catches look routine. Nola wins Monday!
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What did we everyone think about Harper’s “collision ” at home. What he right in the way he made contact? Did he extend his elbow?
My one son loves the Phillies but hates Harper. He said it was a dirty play. I didn’t think it was.
Thoughts?
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Throw pulled the catcher into Harper’s way, he had no choice. Clean play.
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Though Marte was rushed, he had to make a better throw to Moreno to avoid that collision from happening.
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Clean play. Moreno moved into Harper to make the tag and was blocking the plate. A dirty play is if the catcher is not turned into the runner and gets trucked.
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As everyone else said, absolutely a clean play. Harper even moved toward the back of the plate and pulled his arms in. He had no shot of avoiding a collision there. And the fact he immediately checked on Moreno says everything we need to know about the play.
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Slow motion replay makes everything look worse. Harper was bracing for the collision when he saw the throw pull the catcher into his path so it looked like he brought his elbow into the catcher.
He was just making the natural move everyone does to prepare for contact.
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That was a bad throw by Marte putting Moreno in a dangerous position. I watched it a number of times and thought it was clean on Harper’s part. You saw Harper have to reach back to make sure he touched the plate and then go right to check on Moreno. Clean play IMO.
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I agree with Murray. The throw took Moreno into path of Harper. Runner has a right to defend himself. No one had any issue with the play on the field. Sometimes things happen. Was it a dirty play that Olsen hit Harper on the play at 1B. No.
Here is one thing I was thinking last night in the 9th. Has MLB instituted a new rule that prohibits the Phillies from having a 1, 2, 3 inning to end the game. When did that last happen? LOL Team sure makes things interesting…
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Man, I am always wondering why we never have 1-2-3 9th innings, now I know. Darn MLB Rules Committee, 😆.
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One thing you have to like about this team is how mentally tough they are. After a terrible, sloppy game 4 where the bullpen imploded they followed that up with maybe their best game of the postseason. They took back the momentum in the series.
Did the same in the Braves series after a tough loss.
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Bullpen has been the issue for the Phillies for the most part in the series,
…series could have been over in five.
Other than the one game, the bats In the five games have done well…, Phillies have scored 27 runs to the DBacks 12 runs.
Lets’ hope Nola shuts the door tomorrow.
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Romus, I agree on BP. It seems like Phils have a few that are stepping up.
Hoffman, Stram, and Alvarado have been consistent.
Dominguez is consistently inconsistent. Seems like something little like last night always takes place with him. Kerkering is just in a tough spot.
Soto and Kimbrel are the two biggest concerns. I have little faith in either one at the moment. Had Phils brought in Dominguez or Hoffman in Game 3 might have sneaked it out. Hope they can get one more win on Monday.
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Romus, I forgot to mention couple things. I think Kerkering will do better at CBP if used. Also, announcers stated that Kimbrel had never done well at Arizona. Hopefully he does better next time but honestly next to Soto I think he has to be last on the trust list for Topper.
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I agree with many of the bp comments above. It appears now that Hoffman should handle the 8th with Alvy as the closer. Use Stramm in the 7th. It also looks like there will have to be a bullpen redo in the offseason. Let Kimbrel walk and sign another vet arms
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Not sure a complete redo is necessary for the bullpen.
1 .Perhaps subtract Kimbrel…..and of course his salary.
2. Kerkering appears to be in the mix, which he was not this year until Sep.
3. Hoffman will also be there come spring training
4. Though may still need to sign another free agent reliever.
But please… not a free agent with a QO attched to them…. Phillies would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2024 draft.
And I believe the Padres may place a QO on Josh Hader.
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Let Kimbrel walk? He’s a free agent at the end of the season. We don’t have to let him walk. He’ll walk on his own.
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Hopefully he won’t do too much more walking before he gets to free agency…
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We have enough walkers, ………. only the old folks home has more “walkers” than we do! Right? …… Romus.
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LOL…right.
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A few things some might respond on. Did any notice the announcers mentioning that the Phillies did not hit before Game 3 because it is DD philosophy for team to rest before beginning series where they have switched time zones. I had never heard of that before. But makes some sense. I wonder if the same applies when they return from the West coast to CBP? Some of you may notice that. Now I have heard that Harper rarely hits on the field. That is well known. Another point that was made before Game 3 by announcers was that it seemed dark in the park. Neither team hit much till Kimbrel came in. Then last night they mentioned that Rojas stated he had trouble seeing the ball early on. Finally, one last thing. I just watched Stott’s hit in first inning. Carroll’s throw to home was closer to going to 3B than HP. Wow. He was not very deep. One would be upset if these travel kids in the Summer made a throw like that. But it was good for the Phillies. All that matters.
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The announcers have made a point of saying that, while the D-Backs players are very athletic and play great defense, their outfield arms are weak.
Although I’ve been shocked before, I would be pretty shocked if the Phillies don’t make the WS and I believe they will win it all. I think this is their year.
As for Kimbrel, I love Topper. He knows Kimbrel’s in a bad place. He’s going to the bottom of the list and is more likely to pitch in a blowout than to close. Hoffman, who has been an incredible surprise this year, becomes the setup man with Alvarado as the primary closer. Kimbrel has struggled but, on the whole, the bullpen has been a big plus this year.
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DD is far from perfect, but he really does know how to assemble a championship roster. In that way, he’s a lot like Pat Gillick.
DD is at his best when, due to management directives or circumstances, he is forced to be resourceful. He completely overhauled this bullpen without overpaying for relief help or without (generally) sacrificing important resources in trades (Ben Brown notwithstanding – that one still stings, but they were desperate). And, best of all, he did so with an eye on the future of what baseball is becoming – a battle of bullpens with hard throwers at every turn. We are missing a bona fide, reliable, closer, but the depth of the bp has allowed the team to overcome that weakness.
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Catch, they have. But that throw was awful. I think the left fielder also had one earlier in Series that got like to around the pitcher’s mound. May be wrong on that. It does give baserunners a leg up on scoring on almost any hit to the outfield from 2nd base.
Hope the Phillies can end it tonight and get ready for the WS. Dbacks will not go easy though. They are scrappers.
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It would be nice to take it tonight in a blow out 🙂 and then go root for the Rangers to knock out the Astros. Also in 1 less game than that series.
I don’t need to beat the Astros in the WS to feel good about my witnessing a 3rd WS victory.
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Not so sure…..Verlander and Valdez appear hittable lately…..Javier can still be an issue.
OTOH, Eovaldi, Montgomery, Perez or Gray have become hot.
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Note that if the Astros win, Phillies get home field advantage. If the Rangers win, Rangers get home field advantage.
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I forgot about that and that could be a huge advantage but I thought that the Astros winning their division and us being a WC the head to head didn’t come into play?
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For some reason, division winners don’t automatically get home field vs wild card in the World Series. It’s now head to head which obviously benefits the Phillies against the Astros.
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I’m pretty sure they just went straight up record (and then head-to-head) so that NL-AL imbalances don’t come into play. For example, had the Twins made it to the World Series and we did too, they’d have home field advantage if division winners mattered, but they only won 87 games versus our 90.
Or to flip it, if the World Series was Rays-Brewers, and division winners mattered, a 99 win team would be the away team against a 92 win team.
Ignoring divisions altogether makes more sense since you can’t possibly play anyone in your own division (or league) in the World Series anyways.
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Oddly enough Astros play well on the road and poorly at home. Note the advantage of playing 4 in CBP if that is the case ? Even though Phillies are very tough at home that matchup would make for interesting series !! Let’s get there first however, and frankly I hope this ends tonight – no interest in a Game 7.
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Exactly my dilemma guys. I am rooting for Houston because I want the Home Field advantage. Plus, I want to beat them. I don’t, however, know if that is the right way to think. I believe that our HFA is more important than other teams. Most importantly, close it out tonight. Another great Nola outing and some big bats, and let’s celebrate tonight!
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I missed the head-to-head deal. I think the Phillies matchup better with Astros at this time. No revenge. Just think better match. I was still under impression that team that won All Star game got home field in WS. Must have missed that. So last year Phillies would have had home field if they had won 2 of last 3 with Astros to end season? Now to me that makes no sense that a 6 seed would have home field over a 1 seed. Think they were the 1.
They have been saying that NO team has made the WS with a losing home record. Astros are now like 40-46. A year ago, they had best home record. That makes no sense either. Weird.
Here is just a dumb question on my part. Every time I post I get a message at top that says it is a duplicate so I never know if it will go or not. I have noticed a few have had two but most only have one if they post.
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Don, sometimes, it doesn not appear to go through. So, I hit send again. Sometimes it says I have already posted that, so I know it went through. Sometimes it doesn’t, and I post the same thing twice. Sometimes it automatically shows me that it went through. I don’t know the reason, but what you are experiencing is not just you.
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Don,
The only reason head to head vs. Houston / Texas comes in to play is the Astros, Rangers and Phillies have the same regular season record. Since all 3 teams won 90 games, the tie breaker (Head to Head) comes into play. Texas beat the Phillies the first weekend of the season so they hold the tie breaker there. But the Phillies later beat Houston 2 games to 1 so we hold the tie breaker against them. Houston beat Texas during the regular season (head to head) that’s why they won the division. If the Astros had more than the Phillies 90 wins, they would hold HFA against the Phillies since the first tie breaker (Head to Head) would not apply.
Hope this helps!
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Thanks Matt and Andy. I get the head-to-head. I did not know that it switched from All Star game league winner. Maybe that happened years ago. So first is team with the most regular season wins? That makes sense. Second is head-to-head if tie? So, Braves would have had HFA as long as they stayed in this year. Got it.
Matt, I never know if post goes or not for sure. But I do get duplicate almost each time. I think I have only had a couple times where it posted both. Go Phils
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On the lighter side……Didi Gregorius is the 3rd overall pick in the draft for the Baseball United League. He was taken by the Dubai Wolves
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Big question is how will the boy from Louisiana who loves the heat and humidity pitch in the cold weather tonight? Always hoping for the best.
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Not well, unfortunately!
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Bad time for Castellanos, Nola and Turner torevert back to Bad Nick, Bad Trea and Bad Aaron. Team is leaving too many on in scoring position. You can add Bohm to that list.
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Bohm has just been consistently bad in the postseason. Was bad last year. Is just as bad this year.
Don’t get how he’s meant to be Bryce’s protection in the lineup.
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Simply comes down to one game now. Phillies may greatly regret the collapse in Game 4. I still think the pitching in Game 3 could have been different as well after Sanchez. Used a lot of guys that game.
None of that matters now. Simply which team scores the most runs in nine innings tomorrow night. Seemed like not much urgency on Phillies part tonight for some reason.
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MLB revenue!!!!!
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Simply comes down to one game now. Phillies may greatly regret the collapse in Game 4. I still think the pitching in Game 3 could have been different as well after Sanchez. Used a lot of guys that game.
None of that matters now. Simply which team scores the most runs in nine innings tomorrow night. Seemed like not much urgency on Phillies part tonight for some reason.
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If they fail tonite….one area where Top will be criticized in,
is not the adjustment of Bohm in the lineup.
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Agree with you on Bohm’s placement, but if they win tonight all will be forgotten. I think Top was spot on with the relief pitchers last night, though. His use of those guys didn’t waste the guys we will need for tonight. As a group, I thought they were lethargic considering the stakes, little or no heartbeat and Schwarber trying to steal 2nd, Schwarber? One guy who gives a good effort all the time imo is Stott. He’s fast becoming the guy who I like to watch the most. Need to teach Harper not to extend himself at 1B, Stott will get it just man the bag.
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Agree Skeet.
Stott quickly became a leader on the team.
His no-nonsense approach to on the field action is reminiscent of Utley.
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I think a slight switch in the LU tonight is called for. I would interchange JT and Bohm…
That said Harper is getting pitches to hit. The guy who is not getting pitches to hit is Rojas and why would he. He is swinging at everything they seem to toss up to him.
Also I prefer BBs singles and doubles over solo HRs unless its a walk off!
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P.3 ……..solos smack of individualism, BBs, hits and 2 baggers express more of a team thing and piling on. The other day when we had 3 solo shots, you looked around and here they come. We really do hit a lot of solo shots and need to learn how to hit and optimize the situation when we have RISP.
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Agree that Bohm has been a problem on offense in the series but his numbers are slightly better than Stott’s, who’s hitting .230 with 1 RBI out of the 5th spot.
Only possible replacement for Bohm in the line-up would be to move JTR up to the 4th spot and move Bohm to 6th. Castallanos has been terrible with 1 hit in the 6 games so he’s not protecting anyone.
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Was last night depressing? Yes, but this is why we have the Home Field advantage. We win tonight! Ranger is going to be dealing, and we hit like we can. No swinging at bad pitches, no trying to hit every pitch 600 feet, Ibelieve we are the better team, we are at home, and we win.
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We’re the better team, but we weren’t last night. And the better team doesn’t always win. Allowing them to stay alive this long is worrying to say the least. And last night was the first time this series where it felt like they beat us rather than us beating ourselves.
I have a feeling we’ll know who’s going to win tonight very early on.
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In a game 7 the pressure is always on the team that is supposed to win. I hope we’re up for it.
I have total confidence in Ranger to handle the pressure but he’s not a power pitcher I expect him to give up at least 2-3 runs.
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Matt/Dan k – The DBacks have a ton of confidence now and they hit the ball 1-9. If Suarez hangs a breaking ball or two, that’s big trouble. If the Phillies have at bats like last time against this rookie pitcher, it could be a loooong winter. Here’s hoping that Ranger is on top of his game and the mighty bats come alive
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Last night several AZ pitchers did a great job locating pitches in the lower third of the strike zone and slightly below it. Pfaadt in game 3 seemed comfortable working higher in the strike zone, and even above it. We made him look like Roger Clemens in his prime, an outcome that seems like a lock whenever we see a pitcher for the first time. If our guys can lay off pitches at or above the top of the zone, we might limit the HP ump’s inclination to expand the top of the zone for Pfaadt.
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If “Phaardt” leaves pitches high in the zone, he doesn’t have the big AZ ballpark to contain them this time.
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After nearly 7 months of baseball and 174 games the season comes down to one game against a rookie pitcher and a very young team. Dbacks are playing with house money and that is very dangerous.
I was most disappointed in the apparent lack of urgency on the part of the Phillies. It almost appeared as though they expected to win and when the Dbacks hit them in the face they had no idea what to do.
Anyway it all boils down to one game. I agree that the pressure is now on the Phillies. It will be interesting to see how they respond. The announcers have mentioned for several games that Bohm and Stott had come up numerous times with men on base and they favored JT being moved up. But I do not see it in game 7. Think they will ride with the usual lineup.
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Ok. For me tonight is all about the bats. We have struggled since scoring in all games except 2 and 5. Need Harper to be a monster. I also swap Bohm and Realmuto. I put Marsh in center and play Cave against the Righty. Rojas comes in as a late inning defensive replacement or PH against a lefty. Need to hit with RISP. Can’t let Arizona take a lead. If Ranger is pitching good, don’t be in a hurry to pull him before 6. Need to get back to our 2HR average and 6 runs.
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I actually like this Tony. Even better when you get to Cave’s spot late and you really need a big hit and AZ has brought in a lefty you can PH Wilson
After whatever the outcome Rojas could go in the field for defense assuming the game isn’t over at that point.
Its risky and Thompson is risk averse so we won’t see it. I’ve already heard he isn’t changing anything in the LU tonight.
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If the Phillies need to get Jake Cave in the lineup, then the Phillies are cooked. It’s up to Bohm, Stott and others to step up their game in the postseason. There’s no reason why they can’t beat a rookie pitcher at home. If they lose tonight, it’ll be on all the hitters and not because Rojas can’t hit.
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Agree…….Rojas hits in the 9 hole.
I cannot see pointing the finger at Rojas for how bad the team has played in the three losses.
The $$$$ stars need to get it together.
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Fair and I thought I heard one of our prominent players say “this is why you spend the money”
Seemed kind of premature to make a statement like that but perhaps the finger pointing if any deserves to go toward those with the big paydays.
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I have no faith in these bats tonight. They looked lost last night and had zero urgency.
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That was last night, troll, and tonight is a new ballgame. To me, it comes down to my faith in this team. I have a great deal if it. Castellanos is 0-19, I get it. He gets a key hit tonight. We know Topper is changing nothing in the lineup. They pitch around Bryce? Ok, tonight Bohm gets a key hit. Ranger is so cool he is frosty, and we win!
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Matt, I hope this prediction is as good as a couple previous. Game 7s are hard no matter how you do it. I mentioned early on that LUCK and someone not expected to be the hero probably will be. The teams seem pretty similar at this point so hoping it is one of the Phillies guys. I do not think it will be a very high scoring game tonight. Both teams have lots of pitchers they can throw out and the leash for each will be short. In a few hours we will know if we will have more playoff gear available tomorrow or waiting on pitchers and catchers to report to Clearwater. Go Phils.
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Matt, I forgot. I agree about tonight is a different game. It seems there has not been a huge carryover of momentum for either team one game to the next. Take Game 2 and Game 4. Winner did control of the Series in either case. Simply first team to 27 outs with a lead.
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Don….going to be very chilly tonite at the park….mid-50s.
HRs could be hard to come by……every 10 degree drop means 3.3 ft less the fly ball travels thru the dense colder air.
So have to see whch team has the hotter bats.
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In a vacuum, colder is better for us. They’ve got plenty of HR threats of their own, but their HRs tend to be of the “6 rows deep” variety. Whereas a mistake pitch against our big boppers is more a question of “is it staying in the park”.
But that’s assuming our guys both get a pitch to hit and actually hit it. Schwarber looks like he’s seeing the ball extremely well right now, but it doesn’t matter if they won’t pitch to him. Bryce isn’t his dominant self these past few games, but he only needs to see one pitch to make his impact… so they keep pitching around him. Bohm’s doing nothing to punish them for it, so they’ll keep doing it.
As for Casty… we better hope Liam is there tonight.
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Romus, I figured it would be cool. It has been cold here for about a week or so. Today is first day back in the 70s for quite some time.
Hopefully Phillies figure out how to get one more run somehow tonight than the Dbacks.
I keep reminding myself that the rookie pitcher was 3-9 for the season. Must be a reason for that. Hopefully returns this evening.
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Don…agree.
The strong violent power guys, if they make contact, can still blast it out…others will find it doable, but just a tad more difficult.
And i also hope that Brandon Pfaadt comes down to earth tonight.
Daytime temps around here were sunny in the hi-60s/low- 70s, but game time at 8PM, that will drop.
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Phillies will win the game tonight. It’s a new era.
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Turner and Castellanos coming up small in game 7. Very unproductive at- bats
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Bryce too. JT and Schwarber at least looking like premier players. The other 3 are being dragged across the finish line by the day care.
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Bryce at least had some decent at-bats, just no results.
Castellanos and Turner are just flailing away at everything.
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Good year, bad ending.
And I will hear nothing about how good Castellanos is this off-season. Other guys slumped offensively, but at least they helped out on defense.
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Game 4 collapse ended up costing them dearly. Plus, as mentioned no HITTING.
I just had a feeling after leaving the bases loaded and only getting one run that would not be enough. Oh well.
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🤮
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They won one game in the last 5. ONE ! Basically this was an epic collapse reminding me of 1964. Once they lost game 6 anything could happen. AZ bullpen was just over powering. Once behind the game was over. Umpiring was lousy as usual also.
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It was a good run, and as much as I want to blame Kimbrel (and I do), the hitting just disappeared. The bats just went cold at the worst time.
It royally sucks right now, but it’ll be an interesting offseason.
On offense, not sure what can be improved because it’ll likely be the same hitting lineup as tonight. Presumably Rojas will be better and let’s hope the other members of the daycare keep on improving. Aidan Miller and Justin Crawford are likely 2 years away.
The pitching will demand DD’s attention. I think Nola and Kimbrel are both gone. Josh Hader is the hot name. Will DD overreact and sign Blake Snell?
I guess we’ll see what happens.
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Can’t disagree. We came up tiny. Our big $ guys did nothing in the last 2 games. We scored by Marsh, Bohm and Stott tge last 2 nights. Nick and Trea were about 0-40, and swung and missed at about 2 dozen breaking balls low and outside. I have no idea what to do. This off season needs work, and frankly, I am depressed and disappointed and do not know where to make moves. Those of you who don’t like Bohm? I do, and he certainly is not why we lost. Change the batting order? Would that have helped? No, we didn’t lose because of Bohm. We lost because Schwarber and Turner and Harper and Castellanos failed. We lost 3 and 4 because we thought we were a team of destiny and stopped doing little things like not swinging at crap. We lost because we sucked the last 2 games at home. We have no one ready to help from the farm, and I don’t know what to change. We will need a SP, a Closer, someone to hit better with RISP? Don’t know, apologize for venting but I am really disappointed with how we played.
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DD shouldn’t overreact because right now, the only prospect likely to make his debut in 2024 is Mick Abel and perhaps Christian McGowan. Painter, Crawford, Miller are ticketed for 2025. Nobody knows what’s going to happen with Griff McGarry.
So keep Schwarber and Castellanos for 1 more year, and let’s hope that the outcome will be different in 2024. Yes, they will all be a year older but DD gave them the money, they have to earn it. The replacements are coming, just not right now.
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Guru, Miller and Crawford are 2 years away if we get extremely lucky. It is probably longer and that’s a big if they progress as we hope. What do we do for next year? Paiinter won’t be here either and I don’t think Abel will either. I wish I had an answer to make us better.
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Of course, a lot can happen in 2 years but you have to have hope right? Crawford in 2 years is very likely since he’s already at high-A. Miller might be pushing it but he’s a bit older and he’s supposed to have an advanced bat.
This is probably the best Phillies farm system I’ve seen in a long time so I’m hopeful that it can produce elite talent and do it somewhat consistently.
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I didn’t mind if they lost in the WS, but not the NLCS .. especially after being up 2-0.
It’s going to sting but I will
Say, I was so close to buying season tickets for the 1st time this year…. because I was shut out of playoff tickets last year and I thought … what are the chances that they go to back to back WS? Well…
Unfortunately I was right.
Some odd points but … I think Painter’s injury was underplayed. Having him in the playoffs, after a full year … gotta think he crushes it
Hoskins injury blessing in disguise, as Bryce seems to be 1st basemen going forward.
No knock on Hoskins, but he’s gone imo.
Small play, but a steal vs Suarez/Realmuto – Suarez got in realmutos plane of throwing… I think Realmuto has him if he steps to the otherside.. if turner does get the hunt down, that’s a run with halters u ball … woulda coulda shouldas but … pointing out 3-3 fans vs a 4-2 loss
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The great thing about baseball is that we can all point to different reasons for winning or losing and all be right. I’ll point to Turner and Castellanos putting in horrible at bats (though Casty does do great interviews) and Kimbrell blowing two leads, though Thomson gets an assist for pitching him.
So, we’ll have a lot to consider in the off-season.
In the meantime, let’s all agree on one thing — it was great to have PhuturePhillies back after its extended absence and Jim is to be thanked for doing so. Best baseball discussion anywhere is on this site — by far.
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One more point, I’ll point to some bad luck in Game 7. Harper hit the ball hard but, ruefully, exit velocity doesn’t score runs.
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Arizona played baseball…. Phillies played home run derby.. didn’t work out.. live and die by the long ball…. no adjustments to their hitting approach in gm 6 or 7.. just all the stars swinging for the fences like a solo shot down 4-2 was going to win the game….. sad sad showing and they should be embarrassed that they couldn’t see it at their feet and team together for some singles…. just like Arizona did.. .single… single… stolen base.. single…. past 2 nights.. they didn’t beat the piss out of us but they just chipped at us knowing the stars were looking for big blasts no matter the situation…
turner and harper are here for a long time and the window still exists but they really really need some young arms to help this upcoming season and i don’t expect they’ll get that… so what do you do…. pay Nola and have him fork up hanging knuckle curves to the tune of 45 HR’s next year? Wheeler/Ranger/Sanchez/Walker isn’t going to cut it… damn shame they will end up doing something regrettable in the starting pitching department bc painter got hurt and Abel isn’t there yet and Griff can’t seem to ever locate pitches… 0-3 on that group being viable for the prime window they are in and that is really a problem
The Saddest Thing In Life Is Waisted Talent and the choices that you make will shape your life forever……… man i’m pissed they couldn’t come together and have some good at bats
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I honestly thought Rojas would have a better-post season at the plate than he did based on a sample size at the back end of the season. He didn’t lose the series vs the Diamondbacks but it was a bad time to go into a slump
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Disappointing as that loss is, the Phils went to the 7th game of the LCS. They beat am amazingly talented – World Series favorite, Atlanta Braves team along the way, as well as the Marlins. Perhaps the two best teams in baseball this year were the Braves and the Orioles and neither made it as far as the Phillies did. If you are listening Philadelphia Phillies, I salute you, and thank you.
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I know Rojas was over matched and look for him to get better this off season. He is elite defensively. My regrets are the 2 blown saves, and Turner and Castellanos swinging at bad pitches. Veteran guys just flailing away. Arizona knew Castellanos would get himself out and tried the same approach with Turner. Some of the swings were so bad they had to have decided to swing before they saw the ball. I don’t know how to fix that. Bryce just missed the fly out to LF, that was his opportunity. But the other 2 didn’t miss by an inch, they swung and missed by feet. Not a chance we give Nola 8 years if that is still his demand. We have to replace him if he won’t take 4, and maybe a 5th year option We need to replace Kimbrel. We need Hoffman back. Depressed and disappointed. And thank you Jim for bring this site back. It is so very much appreciated.
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Sad day for Philly baseball all around.
Phillies loss…..and the passing of prospect Alexeis Azuaje in an automobile accident. May he RIP.
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Did not know that, Romus! That is really sad, may he rest in peace!
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matt..here is the report.
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Very tragic my heart breaks for his family…..
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So disappointed. I don’t want to bemoan this to death … but we talk a lot about “the window” on this site. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen an easier path to a WS title … that’s now 3 Championships Ive seen crap out – 09’,11’, and now 23’. A familiar feeling that I hate seeing back … Harper deserves a ring, that may have been his shot. He’s got more years, but that was absolutely a missed chance. I don’t blame him, even for GM 6&7. They stopped pitching to him in many ways. To me it’s on Thompson & Kimbrel. Kimbrel was losing steam, morphing back into the arm the dodgers left off the playoff roster last year. Wish Rob saw it earlier. Thompson didn’t manage the lineup the way he did his bullpen, changes should’ve been made. It made more sense to start Pache over Rojas, this game and then defensive replacements come in. He should’ve shuffled the lineup, I think he will regret that.
Talk me off the ledge!
Jim, thanks for bringing the site back, it‘a basically therapy for many of us!
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In 2002 the Tigers fire their GM in April and DD takes over. They suffer some bad seasons but get to the WS in 2006 losing to the Cards 4-1.
They don’t get back to the playoffs until 2011. They win 95 games but lose to the Rangers in the ALCS 4-2.
In 2012 they win 88 games and advanced all the way to the WS only to be swept out by the Giants. In 2013 they followed that up with a 93 win season but lost in the ALCS to Boston the eventual WS Champs.
In 2014 they managed 90 wins, won their division but lost 3-0 to the Orioles in the ALDS.
By 2015 (13 years in) it was starting to fall apart. DD left in early August after making some trades to try and back fill the roster most notably moving David Price to Toronto.
They finished with 74 wins and Alex Avila took over to rebuild. The Tigers haven’t sniffed a division let alone the playoffs since.
DD didn’t waste any time though he became the President of the Red Sox in Mid-August 2015. Boston would finish with 78 wins in 2015.
But 2016 would be an impressive turn around. He would add Price and Kimbrel. They win the division with 93 wins then lose 3-0 to the Indians in the ALDS.
2017 He makes the trade for Sale and brings up a 20 y/o Rafi Devers. They win the division again but again lose in the ALDS this time to Houston 3-1.
And then 2018 everything changes. They fired Farrell, add Alex Cora, added JD Martinez and win 108 games and the WS 4-1 over the Dodgers.
2019 Boston wins 84 games and doesn’t make the playoffs. DD leaves and Chaim Bloom takes over to rebuild and DD arrives in Philly.
2022 Phillies make the playoffs as the 6th seed and lose the WS 4-2 to Houston. 2023 they take the 1st WC and lose in the NLCS to the 6th seed D-Backs 4-3.
Where to from here?
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DMAR……I believe it was you or one of the other posters that said…..cannot buy championships.
Well the Hi- Five Dollar Stars tried their best but came up short.
Recent World Series winners seem to have more home-grown talent than star bought free agent talent on their starting rosters.
Not sure there is any correlation to all that, but makes you wonder why that is.
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I didn’t say it but I don’t disagree with the premise. As Guru states further below I think the best path to winning Championships is augmenting through FA a solid young core of players.
Some of which you draft and some of which you make savvy trades for.
I think we’ve kind of done that. I think you do need to invest in the right stars and BH is/was a slam dunk. Turner we’ll see…
Schwarber was well worth the money IMO and Casty is the tale of 2 cities. When he’s going good its good but when he goes cold it is deflating.
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Not if Texas wins
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Tac3, Ihave heard and read the Rojas comments. I don’t understand them. Pache cannot hit, and Rojas is the better defensive player. I know Rojas looked overmatched. But, I have seen nothing from Pche that leads me to believe he should have replaced Rojas. Put another lefty in there? Cave? Marsh in CF? Then the Defense is worse, and I am not a Cave fan. Going back to Kimbrel in Game 4, that was a big mistake. Couple that with Castellanos and Turner literally getting themselves out, that is what cost us the Series. They beat us by ground balls through the holes, stealing 2d, and then getting opposite field hits for a run. We couldn’t move Schwarber to 3B.
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Agree Matt,
To me the 2 biggest at-bats in the game for the Phillies were:
Castellanos striking out with runner on 3rd and 1 out when the Phillies had just scored to go up 2-1. Adding another run in that spot is big. They eventually got to Rojas for the strikeout with bases loaded but Castellanos needs to put the ball in play.
Second was the Turner at-bat after Schwarber lead off the inning with a double. He first tried to bunt and then rolled over a curveball off the plate and bounced to 3b. Was a perfect pitch to take to RF to at least move Schwarber to 3b with 1 out and Harper coming to bat. Was a worthless at-bat.
The difference in the game was Arizona did the little things to push runs across the plate and the Phillies hitters did not.
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Agreed, I mentioned these moments above. That said, once Castellanos struck out, it was obvious they weren’t going to pitch to Marsh. Look, I’m not trying to rip on Rojas, he gave them what they asked, which was defense. The hits were supposed to be extra. That said .. it was a “hit” moment. He was lost. Basically an automatic out at this point in the playoffs. He was overmatched. It’s not like he was getting unlucky, he was having wild at bats. I pinch hit for him with Pache Then you don’t lose much, and it’s not a double switch. I’d of even have considered Sosa. This is where Hoskins would’ve been nice off the bench … I’d definitely of taken my chances with him over the way Rojas was taking at bats.
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“That’s why you spend the money” quote isn’t going to age well. Not when you lose to a team that cost $127 million to your $256 Million.
A great group of guys and I had a lot of fun watching them this season but I think they got a little too full of themselves.
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No, the quote was absolutely right. Any blame for not winning the series belongs with the guys making the money, Harper, Turner, Schwarber, Castallanos, and JTR.
Yes, Bohm, Stott, and Rojas could have hit better but it’s on the guys getting paid.
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The problem is that when players reach FA, they’re usually 29-30 years old. So you’re paying for their “30” years and eventually they will decline. You’re just hoping that the decline happens later rather than sooner.
FA is supposed to augment your young core, not the other way around. The Phillies can’t keep on throwing crazy money around, it’s just not sustainable. Even the Mets realized this when they sold off a bunch of players during the trade deadline.
It may not look like it, but the Phillies system I think is underrated. Painter and Abel are close, and the system has decent depth on the way (McGowan, Osterberg, McGarry(maybe)). The system also has an interesting mix of hitters (Crawford, Miller, Rincones). The Phillies should avoid spending more big FA money and give these prospects the opportunities to prove themselves in the near future.
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The one position where the Phillies do need to have a quality positional replacement is at catcher, probably within two years.
If I were Dombrowski, or Fuld who may be calling the shots soon, I would see if the surplus rich catching position that the Dodgers are currently at, can be finagled for one of their prospects.
Dodgers need pitching and the Philies have their share from Hi-A up.
Friedman will probably not let go of Rushing or switch-hitter Liranzo, so maybe Diego Cartaya can be had.
I like Marchan but just not sure his bat can be that 120/130 game catcher at the MLB level
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Realmuto is still under contract for 2 more years so the Phillies don’t have to rush into any trade for a catcher. Maybe Ricketts takes a step forward next season or Eduardo Tait shows that he’s the real deal.
The Dodgers do need pitching (like almost every team out there) so I’m assuming that Mick Abel will have to be a part of any deal for Cartaya or Rushing considering they are all top 100 prospects. The Phillies have their own pitching needs so I doubt the Phillies will part with Abel anyways.
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I think Friedman will keep hands off Abel or Painter…..all other pitchers in the system are game.
Also, Diego Cartaya. of the three, probably is one with more risk, though a high ceiling. His minor league track record is very similar to Jorge Alfaro’s was…lots of power, great arm, but also a high K rate. Alf though had some wheels, Cartaya is fairly slow afoot.
More than likely Cartaya would start at AA level Reading.
I think if the Phillies wanted to go there they could offer up any of the other pitchers and Friedman may accept.
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This still doesn’t make any sense for the Dodgers. Currently, Cartaya is a top 100 prospect at AA (56 on Pipeline). Yes, he has under performed there but he’s still only 22. Why would the Dodgers trade him for a non-ranked pitcher that’s in high-A or lower? Cartaya for Alex McFarlane? That would be highway robbery for the Phillies. Dodgers need pitching that is close. They don’t want to wait.
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Why would I want another Jorge Alfaro, who would cost me some legit prospects, when I have Marchan around? Where is Alfaro now? ? Exactly.
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Dodgers would do the trade…trust me.
Surplus inventory has limited shelf life.
29-year old Will Smith is not going anywhere soon and isn’t a free agent for two more years….and Rushing is his heir apparent, not Cartaya….and Liranzo is next in line.
Cartaya will not cost Abel or Painter…..McGarry and another pitcher like McFarlane or Christian McGowan, who is now in the AFL showcasing himself, would easily bring him back.
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@Romus, you need to talk to your contacts in the Phillies organization and have them get Cartaya!
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Exactly, and the last 2 games the RBIs were from Marsh, Bohm and Stott. And, 3up, you are absolutely correct. The Castellanos K before Marsh was walked was really big. Just get the ball in play.That extra run wouls have been huge last night. Terrible AB, and then Turner. Go the opposite way, just like they did to us with RISP. At the very least, move Schwarber to 3rd. But, the worse part is that this wasn’t just 2 bad ABs. They were 0-40!, almost inconceivable to me. And, literally dozens of swings and misses at balls way off the strike zone. Certain ABs, they did not give themselves a chance to be successful, just got themselves out. And, to me, whatever we do in the next regular season doesn’t matter. It is all about getting back to the Playoffs, and how we perform there. And, I am at a loss to figure out how to make us better. I have trouble figuring out how to replace Nola, or how far to go contract wise.
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And, I stayed up to watch the post mortem. Was I delirious, or did Turner actually say he ws guessing at pitches? He thought they wouldn’t throw a strike and they did or would throw a strike and they didn’t. How do you go to bat like that?! See the ball, hit the ball. It certainly looked ;like he was guessing, why? He lost the guessing game time after time.
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I watched a portion,Turner was saying that he thought they weren’t going to pitch to him. It was more schwarber & Harper imo, but I believe the Dbacks did a partial walk around on those 3. They made it look like they’d walk them and then try to sneak the count back…. With Turner, he they through outside the zone and Turner went fishing, trying to jump on the first pitch. Repeat, turner went again. At 0-2, they were trying to get him out before Harper. Good mind games imo.
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If the Phillies had to play the DBacks during the regular season 13 times,
I can see them doing to the DBacks what the Dodgers did to them….8 wins, 5 losses, and outscoring them in total runs 72 to 47.
But the sprint of the play-offs is a different animal….and the slightest mistakes can be magnified to a team’s detriment.
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I must admit that I also would like to trash Castellanos, Turner, Kimbrel, Thomson and even Rojas to a point but all you guys did a good enough job of it for me to contribute more.
What I will say/write is that without those guys the Phillies don’t make it nearly as far as they did. They were the top wild card team. They won the wild card series and the next series against two teams that had pretty much had outclassed them during the regular season.
Was I disappointed with the final outcome? Of course I was. But they had a good season and it was a lot of fun watching them play. I have been following this organization for sixty years. I’m not stopping now.
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Well, I for one am defeated, despondent, depressed, and full of despair. We absolutely gave this series to that team and it is an embarrassment. Here is my wish list
Develop internally or sign a legitimate closer
More bullpen arms that will throw strikes every time out
A continued, I hope, emphasis on drafting hitters with bat to ball skills watching this series it is clear that Arizona‘s lineup is superior to our lineup. In this regard sure they don’t have the boppers we have but they kept putting the ball and play.
Having the courage to maybe take a step back to move two steps forward doing that to me entails, at least the following
Let Nola walk his command is not elite enough for being the soft, tossing right handed, at best he’s a number three starter and he’s gonna get paid a lot more than that
Trade Castellanos even if you get back pennies on the dollar
Fire the manager, and bring in somebody that yes can manage people, but also can manage a baseball game I really like Thompson he’s very likable, but I think his absolute lack of making any adjustments even when things were clear to most of our eyes indicates a philosophy he is married to and I don’t think it’s gonna lead to a championship
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Take a breath and relax. The Phillies are still in fantastic shape and will likely make the playoffs again barring injuries.
Orion Kerkering will be fine. He’s a future closer or setup man. If you want heat in the bullpen, then you’re going to have to deal with the walks. That’s just the way it is. In 2008, Brad Lidge walked 4.5 per nine innings. All the relievers on the postseason roster walked 4 or less. Walks are infuriating but they weren’t walking an abnormal amount. Josh Hader had a bounce back year and he still walked 4.8.
I doubt Castellanos gets traded but if he does, who do you replace him with? He posted 1.6 WAR and now I don’t doubt that Pache can probably generate close to that just on his defense alone, I don’t think you want 2 OFs still developing as hitters.
And Thomson is not going anywhere.
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$20 million for 1.6 WAR is not good value. I just don’t see Casty as the best fit or good value, his son notwithstanding.
I also want to see Bohm take his next step forward.
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With $20 m freed up, there will be a bunch of options I’m sure.
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Except you will not be freeing up $20 million. Trading Castellanos will either require them to eat some of the contract or take on a bad contract in exchange.
I’m not opposed to replacing him with a different type of hitter but he’s not going to give you any payroll relief.
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I am as despondent depressed and disappointed as anyone. I still maintain that game 6 was the DBacks trying to fight to not be eliminated and us trying to dazzle the fans with a HR party. Last night was our year long failures with RISP coming back to bite us. That is on our top guys, what were the last 2 games’ numbers? 1 for 28? I absolutely would not have gone back to Kimbrel in game 4 after what I saw in game 3. But if Nick brings in a run instead of chasing 3 balls way off the plate and Trea moves Schwarber to 3rd, we would have won.
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Jim I rolled back on this site when the Phillies made the playoffs and what do I see? My old friends that we all debated and fussed and fought over. Whatever the health circumstances you and your bride faced well done.. Thank you.. Be well..
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Resign Hoskins, get a pick for Nola, trade Casty for a SP, sign a serviceable LF, start Rojas back at AAA, sign a pen guy to replace Kimbrel. The off-season has begun.
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If Thomson is still the manager, not sure Rojas will start next season in AAA, and that will compound things if he has a very good spring traning.
Seems the manager wants Rojas’ glove in CF, come hell or high water.
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I don’t understand any talk about the manager. Step back and appreciate their success this year. He’ll 100% be back if he wants to be back.
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That is not my point…my point is…Rojas will not start in AAA if it is up to Thomson.
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The only way Rojas goes to AAA is if he looks totally overmatched at the plate. He is a 2-3 WAR defensive player. He needs to do very little at the plate to justify his existence on the big league team and I’ll bet Kevin Long thinks he can coach him up, just as he did with Stott, Bohm and Marsh. Unless he flounders as the plate, he’s up for good.
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Hopefully it is not up to Thomson LOL. I love Rojas but let’s face it he definitely needed more seasoning with the bat. And those hitting issues I don’t believe can be fixed in an offseason.
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If anyone can fix a young player it’s Kevin Long. I was astonished at how far Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott came this year. You could make a pretty good argument that, between his contact skills and plate discipline, Brandon Marsh is their best hitter not named Harper. If Marsh develops any real power (he’s a big, powerful guy – so I don’t see why he couldn’t develop some power), he could become a big star. His contact and plate judgment skills are impeccable.
So, yeah, I think there’s a pretty decent chance that Long can develop Rojas in the majors, although I wouldn’t mind too much if they wanted to give him another couple of months in AAA, although that would mostly result in more Schwarber OF appearances, which nobody wants.
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After Rojas came up, you could see that he still needed work with the bat. But his defense is elite and he wouldn’t have to hit that much to be a 3 WAR CF. Jackie Bradley Jr has a career slash of .225/.303/.381 and I’m certain that Rojas can beat that. Rojas needs to cut down on his swing and make contact and that should be the first step.
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DMAR….Rojas’s career MiLB peripherals indicate he can make adequate contact(approx. 1900 PAs…17% K-rate and 7%-BB-rate)…..how hard the contact and with what kind of lift is yet to be determined. He does hit his share of ground balls, almost 50% in the minors…with no shift maybe that will work to his advantage.
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We can disagree. I think he needs to play at AAA and continue to improve his hitting (and bunting) in a less stressful situation. They want this guy to be a 10 year starter but he needs to finish his development first. It’s only fair to the guy.
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Really don’t get the wish by some to resign Hoskins and trade Castellanos. they are basically the same player. Castellanos hits for move average and Hoskins walks more but both are streaky hitters who can be terrific for stretches and terrible for stretches. Both are also bad defensive players at their respective positions.
Harper is the 1b of the future for this team and if they are looking to move Castellanos, it should be for a more athletic OF who has better plate discipline/contact ability and is more consistent. They don’t need more power, they need more contact and a better approach.
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Because they’ll need a SP, Nola won’t be back
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They aren’t getting a Top of the rotation starting pitcher for Castellanos and trading him, signing Hoskins isn’t saving any money that can be used to get a replacement for Nola.
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We have a serviceable LF his name is Brandon Marsh…
Hopefully after watching Rojas we now know that Brandon is not a CF but he is an everyday player.
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I think Thomson is getting a bit of unfair criticism for his mgmt in game 6 and 7. Some for putting Bohm in the 4 hole.
Bohm was 3 for 7 with a walk 2 hits & HR in games 6 and 7.
Meanwhile in front of him collectively (Schwarber, Turner, & Harper) were:
1 for 20 with 4 walks and the 7 hole money man was 0 for 8.
Pitching wise Nola and Kerkering were responsible for the runs in game 6 Lorenzen, Kimbrel and Soto did their jobs.
Suarez and Alvarado gave up the 4 runs in game 7. Hoffman, Wheeler and Strahm were clean.
I think Thomson did a good job, especially in game 6 in the use of relief pitchers, using those who were more inclined to fail and saving those who were more inclined to succeed for game 7. Turned out, it wasn’t about pitching, it was about situational hitting, moving the runner, scoring when you the opportunity. I hope we learned a lesson, but …….I doubt it.
I thought the efforts of Wheeler, Strahm and Hoffman really stood out this year.
There were others who had good years too, I think the manager was one. You got to use who they give you or not in Walkers case, but I think that was a good call as well. Easy to 2nd guess a manager, but he is in the moment! FWIW
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Soooo . . .
I think blaming Thomson for screwing things up is pretty unfair. He’s a superb manager, but nobody is perfect. I think if he had to do it all over again, he would have managed with a little more desperation in earlier games and would not have relied so much on a struggling Kimbrel because he pitched well earlier in the season. I mean, frankly, who cares? That doesn’t get you outs in the playoffs and Thomson knows that.
On the team, I think Nola is probably gone and they will sign a different starter. Personally, I would trade Casty. He has virtually no “net” worth. He may not even be worth his salary, so you’re not getting a starting pitcher for him that you’d want. You’re hoping someone will take the contract and give you a lottery ticket. But the problem with Casty is not only is he crazy streaky, he really flails away at good breaking stuff. I mean, he’s almost useless against a pitcher who is good at spinning the ball and throwing strikes. I’d prefer a good fielding RFer with better contact skills. Although for next year, I’d be fine rebooting Harper in right and Hoskins at first – and then seeing what the team needs for 2025 next offseason, with an eye toward moving Harper back to first. All of that said – I expect they won’t trade Casty.
If there’s anything I “learned” from this series is that, while it’s true that we are in an era of hard throwing pitchers, there is still room for breaking ball specialists, particularly guys who have funky deliveries or odd out pitches. That’s how Arizona ultimately won this series. It would be nice to add a guy or two like that who throws strikes to our bullpen.
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I think you’re underestimating Casty’s trade value because he ended 0-23. He had a good year with power and was an all star and has a good track record. He improved his defense significantly. He would get us a good SP, I think.
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No, he won’t. Castellanos will be 32, still owed 3/60, and while his defense has improved, it’s still bad by any metric. His range is terrible and his arm is average at best. He’s a DH playing RF. The Phillies will have to eat salary in order to trade him.
With pitching at a premium, there’s no way you’re getting a quality starter for him. You’ll be lucky to get a quality reliever for him.
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Possible Castellanos could have some “value” with the rebuilding Red Sox… team needs right handed bat and outfield has openings…especially if we could come up with a trade for Verdugo. Better contact hitter and could fit in nicely with our lineup. Red Sox need starting pitchers too.
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For the Sox to take Castellanos, and his contract ….for a return of Verdugo….Phillies would also have to add a top line pitching prospect to that deal. If Abel and painter are off the table, then who would the Sox want to complete that deal?
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I’m surprised I haven’t seen anyone mention the two things I got most angry at Thomson about this series; his seeming inability to trust Marsh and pitching to Corbin Carroll.
I’ll preface this by saying he’s overall a good manager and it’s not worth firing him for this stuff, but there’s always things to improve on and I hope that the FO will at least talk to him about those things.
That said, does he have a personal dislike of Marsh? He slumps sometimes, but he’s been just about our most consistent offensive threat for the entire year. And by a lot of measures, he’s our second best hitter after Bryce. So why is he literally permanently at the back of the lineup. AND WHY DOES HE STILL SIT AGAINST LEFTIES??? That second part wasn’t an issue this series, but he literally sat him IN THE PLAYOFFS in favor of PACHE. He obviously has worse splits against them. But EVERY TIME he gets a chance to face them, he shows improvement. Especially late in games, he’s come up big multiple times against lefty relievers.
Now for something specifically about this series… it does feel like an almost fire-able offense that we kept pitching to Carroll in game 7. Twice he came up with men in scoring position, and twice he delivered. It was already apparent his third time up that he was seeing Ranger extremely well. We should not have been pitching to him. But it was even WORSE his fourth time up. He’s 3-for-3 on the day, we only have 1 out and 1B is open. WALK HIM. Are you kidding me? Not a single person thought, “hmm… maybe we should set up the double play instead of pitching to their young star who has been dismantling our pitchers…”? I would give JT some blame for that, but it can’t be the pitcher making that call. It’s gotta be the coaches. The best JT can do is call for pitches at the corners, but if they miss their spots that’s trouble.
Thomson is an excellent player’s manager, by all accounts. But sometimes his strategy is extremely suspect.
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A lot to say… still. The fallout from this is a mess. That said, this team still needs some tweaks, but it’s in great shape to go in the direction they want … and then the results are all on them.
For perspective, it is incredibly hard to win the WS. Look at how many the Braves, Dodgers have … with all their Division titles. Look at Houston. Yes, it feels like a missed opportunity, but this team will have more. They have great young players coming to support which we’ve never been able to say before. Still, this was absolutely a missed opportunity. To me, Thompson gets a fair amount of the blame, but the lion share is on Kimbrel. He cost 2 games. The No show offense also cost us 2 games. Now, the SP & Offense did win us games too but we needed 1 more. Frustrating. I don’t expect Thompson to be perfect, he should’ve of had to be perfect to win this series, really the 1st series they were expected to win outside the Marlins over the last 2 years.
Questions:
Do you make a play for Trout?
How much of the farm are you willing to trade?
What prospect can be pushed for a late season addition? McGarry? Crawford?
Do you resign Hoskins?
Do you sign Hader and give up the picks? (YES)
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No to Trout.
What are we trading for? It takes talent to get talent, and every team out there is eying Abel and Crawford.
McGarry is already at Lehigh so if he turns it around, he’s an obvious choice. Crawford would need to have a monstrous season like Corbin Carrol suddenly hitting 24 HRs as a 21 year old. And Crawford will only be 20 next season.
No to Hoskins because Harper is now playing 1B.
I’m leaning towards no for Hader. The Phillies will have to pay him something like 3/55, just last season he was negative WAR, and his walk rate this season is the the highest of his career (4.8).
The Phillies have enough closer capable relievers that Thomson can mix and match as he sees fit. I would rather take a chance on a 27 year old Jordan Hicks (3/20) and hope that he continues to improve as he ages.
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Mike Trout and his 7 year contractual obligation scare the hell out of me.
First, he’s always injured. I wouldn’t bet a lot on him being healthy going forward. If you get 110 games out of him in a year, you’re lucky.
Second, and maybe more important, look at his numbers. His age 30 and 31 seasons, with a scary drop in batting average, recall those of Albert Pujols and Ken Griffey, Jr. There’s a good chance that Trout just devolves into an above-average player, or worse.
He is not a good gamble on his current contract alone – put aside sending prospects over to get him.
Hard pass.
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Tac, first, the only blame I lay at the Manager’s feet are sending Kimbrel back out in Game 4. He looked terrible in Game 3, and I absolutely would not have sent him back out. I have no problems with his Managing in 6 and 7. That was on the big $ hitters, pure and simple. Your questions, No on Trout, keeps getting injured, too costly in players, I pass. I don’t trade Abel or Crawford or Miller, and for anyone else, it depends on the return. Unfortunately, I do not see any late season addition coming from the Farm, not in 2024, anyway. Unless there is a SP coming not, not a salary dump or a situation that we have to lose prospects to kmove him, I keep Castles, and move on from Hoskins. I have Caleb Cotham study every pitch that Hader threw before I make a play for him. I prefer to look at a deal like DD made for Alvarado. My question, I had read someone’s opinion that we sign Hoskins to a 1 year deal, move Castellanos to LF, and platoon Rojas and Marsh in CF. Does anyone else endorse that? I believe Marsh has earned an every day role in LF, and I sign Nola if the term is less than 6 years, I don’t know who to go after if we cannot, upgrade the Bench, and add a couple of RPs, one a Closer.
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Job #1 for Dave Dombrowski this winter is to settle the SP2 spot.
I’ve posted this dozens of times ➡ The Phillies certainly would pay Aaron Nola SP2 money (~5/125M). Aaron risked health to get to free agency. Now that’s he’s reached the open market, he’s likely going to find a team(s) happy to shell out SP1 dollars (6/162M) for him.
Most likely Nola replacement IMO:
1️⃣ Yoshinobu Yamamoto
2️⃣ Blake Snell
3️⃣ Tyler Glasnow (trade)
Yamamoto is just 25 & a safer bet to hand out a 7 or 8 year contract to. Sounds like he’s open to playing on the east coast. Phillies have spent a good chunk of time in Japan scouting him.
Snell and Glasnow are more power arms. Dombrowski is more apt to spend big money (or prospects in Glasnow’s case) on that type of arm.
Hinkie chances on Phillies SP2 next seaon:
Nola 25%
Yamamoto 20%
Snell 20%
Glasnow 15%
The field 20%
I’m not predicting Mike Trout to the Phillies, but I would say this is the last best chance of that ever happening. Trout is like cat nip for Dombrowski. The Phils POBO has a history of hunting star players. Trout wants to win. Ohtani has one foot out the door & Arte Moreno (who Trout has a great relationship with) has toyed with selling the Angels for the last 12 months. I think the price the Phillies would have to pay for Trout is being exaggerated here. Trout has a “no trade” clause & could do a lot to force his way here. v1’s idea of including Nick Castellanos in a potential deal is right on the money.
Again … I’m not telling you Mike Trout will definitely be wearing red pinstripes in 2024. I’m just saying the pieces are in place. It’s been more a comfort thing with Trout and the Angels. Moreno may sell. Trout wants to win. His family is here. His wife’s family is here. And his developing business interests are here.
https://x.com/MikeTrout/status/1695070118345105414?s=20
One last thing … I’m not the biggest Rob Thomson fan. He’s ok. But IMO Kevin Long shoulders more responsibility for the Phillies getting bounced. The team lost because it’s hitters would not stop swinging at pitches out of the zone. That’s what killed them. Long has to be able to help/fix that.
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I’m not laying the blame on Kevin Long at all, and you know why?
From what I can tell, big star hitters do whatever the heck they want. They ask for Long’s advice when they think they need it, but they keep their own counsel.
Contrast that with the young guys who really need to listen to him. Those guys are much more disciplined and clearly listen to him.
Who chased the bad pitches (I’m taking Johan out of this – he was outclassed in the playoffs) in the NLCS?
Realmuto, Turner, Castellanos and sometimes Harper. The big name guys.
Who didn’t?
The young guys: Marsh, Bohm, and Stott. By the way, Marsh was fantastic in the playoffs from start to finish – he is becoming an outstanding player. I was 100 percent wrong about him and Marsh man, I apologize!
I agree that, if you wanted Trout, now would be the time to get him. But with his salary, injury and performance risk, and the ridiculous price the Angels will ask in return? No way.
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Not taking anything away from the work Kevin Long has done with Marsh/Bohm/Stott/Pache. And it is true that Nick Castellanos isn’t a Kevin Long disciple. But Turner, Harper, and Schwarber spend lots of time learning from Long. Not campaigning to have Long fired. Just saying he’s more responsible than Thomson for NLCS outcome.
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Agree with the take on Trout. Don’t understand the argument that:
A) the prospect demand will be way too much and
B) the contract is terrible
C) his health/performance is diminished.
If the contract is terrible and his play is slipping, the Angels will be happy to get out from under it. They are preparing for a major rebuild with Othani most likely leaving so the prospect demand would be minimal. Agree and have stated previously that deal must include Castellanos as part of the package to offset some of the $$$. The only real risk is all of the $$$ remaining on the deal and Trout’s health status moving forward.
I don’t agree that his play is slipping. He put up an .858 ops in a down year coming off the previous season where he was .999.
IF he can provide even his down year numbers, that’s much better than what they are getting from Castellanos now. His down year in 2023 would make him 2nd to only Harper on the team in OPS.
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It’s like you set up the perfect argument for me to counter.
1. Performance. He was not terrible last year, but he was hurt half the year. His .858 OPS was, by far, the worst of his career. His .263 batting average was, by far, the worst of his career. Due to the slip in performance he played to a 3 WAR – not at all worth the $37 M payment and AAV he commanded. He could bounce back on performance, but when other sluggers declined, this is exactly what the decline looked like. There are huge red flags here.
2. His contract goes for another 7 years. He hasn’t played to the value of his contract in 2 of the last 4 years and he’s not getting any younger. Given his performance declines and constant injuries, the odds are that he does not play to the value of his contract. And it’s an enormous contract that will combine with other enormous contracts on this team to reduce its flexiblity on payroll.
3. When a player does not play to the value of his contract, do you know what the trade consideration for that player should be? As a general rule – nothing – there is no net trade value for that player. People don’t seem to understand this. If the deal were only for a couple more years, it might be worth it to overpay and absorb the risk. But for 7 years? To me, that’s a bad deal.
I mean, is he better than Castellanos? Yeah, but that’s not the entire point. It’s not a one-year deal.
Sorry, I don’t buy any of these arguments with Trout.
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Maybe we should let the Associate GM decide if Trout would be nice to have…….the Associate GM Harper.
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Castellanos was an Associate GM hire. Before you trade him, I would think you would have to run it past the Associate GM.
I realize you didn’t necessarily advocate trading Castellanos, but you opened a door with the AGM title. And, I thought it pertinent to mention his role in the signing.
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LOL…I love Harper,
when on the field in a game.
It just seems, the people who are hired to manage the organization, may defer a little too much to the player.
I remember 3 or 4 years ago in spring training, he mentioned Spencer Howard needs to be in the rotation. I thought that was a little of a premature evaluation.
But i get it…the star face of the franchise has some clout on who he wants surrounding him..
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3up…..for the Angels to give up Trout….for Castellanos….Phillies again would have to sweeten the pot…..and you know who they would want to start….Mick Abel.
I dunno know if I would go there….unless they wouild be happy with one or two of the three Mcs…..McGarry/McGowan or McFarlane
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I agree mostly with Catch, I don’t want Trout.
A) The Angels are not going to give him away, they are going to want something significant for him, at the bare minimum, 1 top 50 guy.
B) Trout is still owed approximately 7/260. The Angels are paying him to be a 5 WAR guy! There’s zero margin for error here. If he gets hurt or starts declining even a little, this contract will look brutal fast.
C) Trout started his career at age 19. He has a lot of mileage on his body, especially playing CF which is a demanding position. He hasn’t been close to healthy the last 4 seasons. And as my buddy likes to say, you don’t get healthier when you get older. Injury concerns are very real with Trout.
The issue is not that Trout is better than Castellanos, he definitely is. He will be an upgrade. The issue is his remaining contract and the prospects required to get him. Trout is going to decline, it’s just a matter of when. Add his injury issues and the odds of him giving value back to the Phillies is virtually zero.
I know people don’t want to hear this but you can argue that Trea Turner is already in decline, and Trea is only 30.
age 28: 6.4 WAR
age 29: 4.9
age 30: 3.6
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Hinkie what makes you think Trout wants to win though? He signed that extension in 2019 even though they hadn’t made the playoffs much, and rumors are he wants to stay in LA.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/09/mike-trout-intends-to-play-for-angels-in-2024.html
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Frank … Mike Trout meets with Arte Moreno and the FO after every season to get confirmation the Angels are doing what they can to win. It’s similar to Harper here. The team signed him with the promise they would do whatever they had to do to help him get a ring. Like Romus says, they are basically Associate GMs.
As far as Trout’s comments to reporters … what is he going to say, “I give up. Trade me.” If (and I don’t know if he has reached that point) Mike has given up on winning in LA, he would have his agent handle things behind closed doors.
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Hey I hope you’re right! I just suspect that maybe he’s not that concerned about whether or not he wins.
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How’s that approach of pushing all the chips into the middle of the table going for Mike and the Angels? That is a wretched franchise.
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The owner has to own up to the Angels’ years of futility.
He could have easily dealt Ohtani in July….prior to his injury….to ‘crosstown’ Dodgers for 3 , maybe 4, quality prospects…but his ego would not let him do that.
Down deep, Angels not being in the play-offs now in almost a decade (2014) probably eats at Trout.
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Should the Phillies have interest in Trevor Bauer? Will any team sign him?
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Unless you want a huge fan revolt on your hands, this is a “no way in hell”.
Did you not see what the Dodgers did to Julio Urias? They erased him from their clubhouse.
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No way do the Phillies bring Trevor Bauer here. I don’t care if he agreed to pitch for free. He is a cancer to any clubhouse.
Also … the Mike Trout cost would be measured by how much money the Angels were willing to eat. If the only dollars they took on were the Castellanos contract, the LAA’s would not get any of Painter/Abel/Crawford/Miller.
If the Angels want to rebuild and/or if Arter Moreno wants to clear the books to get a better sale price on the club, Trout holds the hammer. He can dictate where he wants to go.
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Trout has 7 and $260M left on his contract. If you trade Castellanos and his 3 and $60M, I believe the Angels go one for one (and only a lottery ticket). They’d be saving $200M and getting a pretty good player in return with only 3 years left on his contract. I think the Halos would jump at it.
Trout moves to the less stressful position of right field for two years. After two years, Schwarber’s contract ($20M per) is up. Trout moves to DH with almost no physical stress and the money gap closes a bit more. Not saying I’d do it, but hey, it’s not my money.
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ciada…..you make some very interesting points for bringing him in.
I just hate to see the cap hit dwon the road, and how many draft choices will lose in the process….and also the funny money internationale bucks.
John Middleton may have to get a part-time gig at Walmarts as a greeter.
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Schwarber only has one year left.
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Murray, Schwarber has 2 years left, 2024 and 2025. His was a 4 year contract before the 2022 season.
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Thanks. I thought Schwarber and Casty signed for 3 and 4 years but they actually signed for 4 and 5 years.
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Hinkie, We have never been in at all on a Japanese player coming over for the 1st time. I don’t know why you think that changes with Yamamoto? I think they try hard to re-sign Nola. If someone offers him 8 years/$200M, I don’t think we go there. But I can see us going to 6 years. I just don’t know where to pivot if we lose Nola. Snell is going to get years and $ also. I don’t know how far the team goes but we have to get SP #2. Then a Closer. You were all on Alvarado before I even knew who he was. Who has someone we could trade for to Close?
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Not Hinkie….but the one guy that fascinated me in the play-offs with the Twins…Jhoan Duran and his splinker pitch. He will cost and arm and a leg since he is controlled and is on the verge of stardom.
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LOL. Romus stole my answer. Duran is a monster. Minnesota would never trade him though.
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Your opinion is always welcome, Romus. Do the Tigers have anyone?
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LOL…Tigers…..another Soto?
Sorry…..Alex Lange was their guy,
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/langeal01.shtml
…….along with Jason Foley and LHP Tyler Holton…all in their late 20s.
I suppose the Tigers could trade one of them for the right price.
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Speaking of Soto, he was more inconsistent than I had hoped for when we traded for him. Foley was the guy I was thinking of. Not dismissing your Duran suggestion, just think he would cost more in prospects than we are willing to give up.
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I wrote a long post yesterday that apparently did not go through. Most of my thoughts have been addressed. Only point I made that I have not seen was the importance of the misplayed pickoff in the first inning. To me that was really a big play.
I saw today that it is predicting 9 players not returning. Nola, Hoskins, Kimbrel lead list. Most others are reserves. One notable was Kingery. Said Phillies have a 13 million option. Only 6 players at 2B make more. Too bad Scott did not pan out. I thought he would back in the day.
I really enjoy all of you and your posts. Big thanks to Jim. My biggest disappointment with Phillies elimination is that there is no guarantee that these players will ever get this close again. They were 15 outs from the WS after the 4th inning. Neither the Rangers or DBacks were even in the playoffs a year ago.
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Don, I still have a thought that Nola is back. I don’t know the rest of the list, but I don’t think Rhys is back. No chance they pick up Kingery’s option. I had him as our Dustin Pedroia. Boy, was I wrong. You are correct, nothing is guaranteed. I believed in, and loved following, this team. Very disappointed. However, I do have faith in the Ownership and DD to add enough for us to get back to the Playoffs. I am pretty confident of that. After that, anything can happen, as we have seen. Love this site, and thoroughly enjoy interacting with all of you!
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I agree that the window for the playoffs is good. But as we have seen the last two years the number 6 seed has gone to the Series. Plus, the Braves are going to be good as well. Who knows what happens with Mets. Arizona has a nice young group to work with. It is just so hard to make it all the way now with all the rounds. I saw a bracket today of someone who had Phillies vs Astros. It had both Rangers and Dbacks going out in round 1.
I like Nola a lot. But as in game 6 for some reason he seems to have 1 bad inning in a game frequently. He can be so good, but I think he gets better offer elsewhere.
The players were Cave, Sosa, Covey, one they got from Pirates, and I am forgettting the last. it was a reserve player.
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My early offseason thoughts…
If the trade presents itself, I trade for Trout. Here is why:
I don’t care if he only plays 110 games. This team is good enough to to make the playoffs with him on the injured list… i just wanted him for the playoffs. (This also assumes part of his contract is paid down to 26 to 27 mil per year or more)
The team is in win not mode.
He has 7 years left. Give me 3 Mike Trout-esque years, 1 at 75% and Im good with whatever the last 3 are.
Harper has 8 left? Turner has 10?
I say roll the dice, ESPECIALLY, if it cost less Than previously thought;
Castellanos, Abel, Rojas or Pache, and others. Here is one … Walker. The Angels ALWAYS need pitching … and Walker has to be disgruntled about not making a playoff appearance after a 15 win season. Im sure other prospects have to be added, but I’d argue ones that can be traded. Trout protect Harper is a fantasy that is hard to pass up.
I don’t worry about the years or money (its not mine), i worry about the condition of his back. If that checks out, im in.
Rojas has 2-3 defensive war, but I can live with that trade if Pache can develop with Trout… until Crawford is ready. Pache is likely a 1. To 1.5 Defensive war.
Get the SP in here,and a reliever, and they are good.
Turner – SS
Stott – 2B
Harper – RF
Trout – LF
Schwarber – DH
Hoskins. – 1B
Marsh – CF
Realmuto – C
Bohm – 3B
With Wheeler, Suarez and either a Nola, Snell, etc … I like the teams chances, with Painter developing in the wings… and a cooked Kimbrel no longer relied on
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Murray – Schwarber signed for 4 and $79M. Has completed 2 with 2 to go.
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Thanks. I thought Schwarber signed for 3 while Casty signed for 4 years.
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Murray – Sorry to be redundant. Didn’t see that Matt addressed the contract.
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I read some of the DD presser. Clear that sifning Nola is priority #1, and acknowledged he cannot guarantee that, so if they do not, replacing him becomes priority #1. I am not sure he needed to say they will talk to Bryce about where he prefers to play. We know they will. But the decision needs to be the teams. If we are better with him at 1B, therefore not bringing Hoskins back, that should be the team’s call. If they can trade Castellanos for what they perceive to be value, and Bryce plays RF and Hoskins plays 1B, and I am not suggesting that they can or want to, they should take that info to Bryce and explain what is the best for the team. If they feel platooning Rojas and Marsh in CF and Castellanos in LF and Hoskins at 1B is the best avenue, that should be DD’s call. I love Haroer, but his preference for this upcoming season shouldn’t be the decider. What other moves they can or feel they should make, should decide. I am not advocating for any moves, just the process, sorry for that word! that they use to get there.
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matt…Harper’s close friendship with Rhys and Nola may force Dombrowski’s hand on the future decisions that will need to be made…..now in just two weeks.
Here is the chain of command pecking order reporting to John Middleton.
Wonder how it will all shake out.
1.President, Baseball Opes David Dombrowski
2.Vice Pres,/ General Manager Sam Fuld
3.Asst GM Anirudh Kilambi
4.Asst GM Ned Rice
5.Asst GM Jorge Velandia
…………Bryce Harper
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Romus, I am hoping that Plans A through Z have already been discussed, even if the particulars haven’t been. For instance do they need to trade Castles in order to sign Hoskins? Is a CF platoon plus having Hoskins, with Castles in LF, workable? There will be little time. I can’t see re-signing Hoskins and then having to make a trade with their backs to the wall.
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Romus …
Dombrowski
Fuld
🔼 Harper
Velandia/Kilambi/Rice
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LOL…yeah. that is probebly how it is..
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Although you might want to sit Marsh once in a while against a really tough lefty, he’s not a platoon player. He’s a first division regular right now and has even more upside.
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I agree catch, none of that is what I would do. To me, Harper is the 1B, we let Hoskins walk and re-sign Nola. I play Marsh every day. I am a big fan. But, I don’t know what the team is thinking, just that they better have an idea of what they want to do, and what they believe they can do, before going to Bryce and asking him which position he prefers. Bryce may not have a choice if we lose Nola and they decide to trade for a SP and Castellanos goes in that deal? No guarantee that we lose Nola and simply sign Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery.
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matt…..letting Rhys walk without a QO attached, may show some disrespect to him for all that he has done for the org over the last 8/9 years.
Then again, having a QO attached to him may prevent him from getting the best deal available to him from another team.
But, on the other hand….he may want to come back for a year…a $20M ‘pillow’ contract…….which then puts Top and the staff in a line-up juggling mode.
Tough call for Dave and the crew.
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It’s no disrespect IMO, just business! …….and no matter what we do there will be detractors camped on all sides, but I hope we have a solid plan for the good of the team after we execute our course of action.
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Skeet….I think John Middleton sees it different.
Phillies are family to him…….business was the cigar company and the dealing with the antics of his sibling.
I trust Dombrowski knows what has to be done…convincing Middleton may be a another animal.
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Romus, the issue with the QO is that he probably accepts it! So what are the rules. If you accept a QO, can you them be traded?
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matt…according to the rules…..only players under contract can be traded…..so I say yes.
Has it ever been done……have not recall ever seeing it prior to the season beginning.
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Romus, ……….Do you think Boras will say to Rhys…….”Rhys, you know, John has just been like a father to you, and you really didn’t do a thing this year to earn your salary except to get hurt…..how about we play 2024 for 12 mil too show we are so grateful!”
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Wow, very sad news.
Alexis Azuaje was killed in a car accident.
https://thatballsouttahere.com/posts/philadelphia-phillies-prospect-tragically-dies-in-traffic-accident
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Good article in the Atlantic on how the DBacks approached pitching – meaning they got the Phils’ hitters to expand the zone. Not sure if this matters over 162, but for a playoff series, this is critical.
Raise this with regards to 1B issue and Rhys. Yes Rhys is steaky, but he does work the count – as opposed to Nick. Noticed the Asst Hitting Coach was relieved.
To win a Series, need to win the edges.
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SoCal, no argument. And no disrespect to the DBacks. But our hitters got worse at the chasing. I don’t know why. Some of the pitches were so far off the plate, I have to believe that they decided to swing before they saw the pitch. DD does not know either. He listed all the same factors we can. Tryinfg to do too much, not seeing the ball well enough, the pressure of the situation. He listed them all and there will be many discussions. But one thing is clear. We did not adjust to their adjustments. And, this was not just about our aggessiveness, this was not picking up spin on the ball, or guessing, or trying to hit HRs on every swing. And we compounded our swinging at pitches out of the strike zone by doing it even more. We had the most swings and misses at pitches out of the strike zone in the last 5 games than in any 5 game stretch through the entire season. That is why we lost this Series. So, Arizona did not give up, they changed their approach, while we took a flaw, and made it worse. Why? We would all like to know.
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For you trivia guys, just wondering if this is the first World Series that will be played by two teams that carry the “state” name. There are only a few teams that use the state name that I can think of: Arizona, Texas, Minnesota, Colorado. Years back the Marlins went by Florida and the Angels were California. In football, the Patriots carry the entire region using New England and basketball has the Warriors using a nickname in Golden State. Did I miss any?
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A few more.
NBA…Jazz..Pacers.
NFL…Titans…Panthers (Carolina)
NHL…Devils…..Huricanes(Carolina)
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You da man, Romus.
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Are the Titans named after Dolly Parton?
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Dombrowski basically said what I’ve been saying about Rojas. He was exploited in the playoffs and needs to hit better and definitely does not have a spot on the 26 locked up. Marsh/Pache could easily play CF to start the season if they want to go that way and sign Hoskins and move Harper to the OF. This is after all how this season was supposed to go (once Harper came back) before Hoskins got hurt. In this model, Rojas could come up mid season to give them a boost (like Lonnie Smith in 1980 for you older guys).
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How’s he going to give them a boost? Whose spot is he taking in the lineup? Harper, Marsh, Castellanos aren’t being benched in July unless one of them gets injured.
Signing Hoskins freezes the roster and make any position flexibility nearly impossible. Not to mention chewing up about $15m better spent on pitching.
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You’d have to be old to remember 1980. The Phil’s had Luzinski in LF and Maddox in CF, two established and well paid stars. However neither was hitting to their standard and the team was around the 500 mark. They brought up Lonnie Smith from the minors and he took turns playing LF and CF, making the two stars angry, while he hit 330. It drove the previously close but not champion club to the championship (in an angry mood). Rojas could do the same for us midseason if he improves his hitting back to where he was in the AFL and in Reading.
Having said all that, it doesn’t sound like they’re bringing Hoskins back.
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You need to be more respectful of your elders! Some of us remember it like it was yesterday,……on the days we can remember!🤔
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I remember that Lonnie Smith was NOT called up mid-season from the minors. He started the season on the bench as a pinch runner and late-inning defensive replacement.
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Thinking about us needing a #2 SP if Nola signs elsewhere, I think trading Crawford, rather than Casty, becomes more likely as he has much more value for a bad team. Rojas has shown that if his hitting improves he can be the long term CF. It also could mean they trade Rojas if they think Crawford’s ceiling is higher and the timing of his arrival works better with Casty and Schwarber’s contracts. These will be important decisions if they can’t sign Nola.
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Crawford should be untouchable. Trading him I think will be a massive mistake.
We can all talk about trading for quality starting pitching, but that cost is going to be crazy high. If the Phillies are not willing to give up Mick Abel, then they’re not getting any SPs.
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They will definitely acquire a #2 SP, maybe Nola or maybe someone else through FA or trade but they will get one. If by trade, it will cost a lot to get a good #2 and they’re not trading Abel.
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Went out to dinner .. they had the WS on, wanted to barf. Rangers look so Beatable. .. and the Dbacks still look like an 84 win team to me
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Texas did their scouting of how Arizona pitched to the Phillies. They took 10 walks last night! If only we could have had that discipline….
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A 2-run HR off the guy (Sewald) that we couldn’t lay a bat on.
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We had Chase Turner and Chase Castellanos…we needed a re-incarnated Chase Utley.
As Dombrowski said……you can talk to the guys, he stopped short without saying until ‘you are blue in the face’…but they will do what they always did, when they step into the batters box.
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When you watch our team, you understand why Chase Utley should be a Hall of Famer. As good as everyone is, is there anyone, with the possible exception of Harper (yeah, he was bad the last two games, I get it), is there anyone you’d rather have hit with a postseason game on the line than Utley? No freaking way!!!
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After a walk…..made him throw a strike I guess…
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To Tac3 – I had the same barf sensation watching game 1. And finally after AZ uses the 3 headed bullpen monster they blow up ? Why couldn’t that have happened at CBP ? Ugh – it makes the agony return.
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I was telling everyone what Sewalt is not an elite closer… he’s hittable. Bounced to blow a save… well….
I was correct … but missed it by 1 game… 🤮
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After seeing what Dave Dombrowski said…..thinking he would like to move on from Rhys, but…..
” As far as Rhys is concerned, there are still some moving parts that I’m just not sure at this time,” Dombrowski said. “Our defense is important for us and I think it has shown. We were a better defensive team after the August 1 scenario that we had. But again, we have to converse about that ourselves t’s more sitting down with Bryce and seeing what he feels, but I also don’t want to put it on Bryce, that’s something we have to decide ourselves.”
(A major part of that conversation is what Harper wants. Not whether Harper wants his friend and teammate back — of course he does — but whether he feels now is his time to transition to first base.)
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I won’t watch a pitch of the WS. I am certain that there would be multiple instances where Texas does what we failed to do, and I have to relive the agony. Although they performed the same in those last 2 games, I view Trea and Castles differently. Turner is a former league leader in BA, and I know he is capable of much better strike zone awareness. Castellanos has had those streaks before where he gets himself out by swinging at pitches way out of the zone. But, they both should be able to work on this problem. I still don’t know if it was not picking up the spin on the ball, guessing at the pitches, or what caused it, but it is certainly a blueprint to pitch to us, and we have to figure out an adjustment.
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Romus, there is a marked difference in our defense with Harper at 1B and Marsh in LF. We are not just a little, but a lot better, and that matters. I am a Rhys Hoskins fan, but I think it is time to move on, and I also think that Bryce will get better and better at 1B the more he plays there. I think they all like Hoskins, and want to have “conversations” and look at different options, but I think the decision has already been made.
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matt….correct.
The defense was better with Marsh (LF), Rojas (CF) and Harper at first base. I am sure Rhys can see that.
Not putting a QO on him, lets many small market teams in on his bidding knowing they may still have to cough up some money, but not have to lose a draft pick.
I think Dombrowski is leaning that way.
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It’s hard to see a path forward for a Hoskins deal if Castellanos remains with the team. I just don’t see both guys on this team – too many bad gloves and they went to the NLCS without Hoskins, so there’s that.
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And to the World Series with him after he hit a huge homer….
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Getting back to maybe acquiring Trout, if the Angels really want to get out from under his enormous remaining contract, they have to take Castellanos and Walker who together have 3 years and about $115 million left on their totals. In my whacked out opinion, the Halos still make out pretty good by getting a guy who knocked in over 100 runs and another who won 15 games.
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I am going to tell you right now that if the Angels trade Trout this offseason, they will not be cutting the other club any deals. They will be pigs about it. They will want huge minor league assets and the other team to pay his whole salary (or nearly the whole salary). They will probably ask too much and it won’t get done. They are a losing franchise for a reason.
But they are not so stupid to trade Trout for Castellanos and Walker – why on earth would they do that when they are trying to rebuild and shed contract money? Trade a star for two overpaid, mediocre players (sorry, Castellanos is not nearly as good as people think) with bad contracts? Come on now. They would want Crawford and Abel and Miller – just for starters.
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ciada…what is in the water up there in Conn!
The contract money may be equalized a bit, but I do think the Halos may want a little more for the future Hall of Famer.
Probably one of the Phillies top ten pitching prospects.
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Romus – A case of CTH2O from Storrs (soon to be in WPalmBch) is on its way to you. Throw in McGarry for all I care.
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Check out MLB Trade Rumors.com – Q and A on Phillies – also a review of what Phillies need to do for 2024 in another section. No where near as good as this site but you can see what the “outside” world thinks ???
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After looking at SP between Nola, Snell, & Montgomery I feel the Phils are best off keeping Nola as all are probably about the same in value and age (30). The wild card is Yamamoto (25) whom would be an interesting fit.
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Hinkie is all in on Yosh Yamamoto…….if it leaks that the Phillies are sending someone iike a rep to Japan, then I will believe they are in on him.
But the usual teams that court Japanese pitchers, will also be in on him with their wallets all open.
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We have never been even a finalist for a Japanese player, so my hopes aren’t up. I think we find a way to sign Nola. We are going to know rather quickly, I don’t think the Nola signing waits until January. He is going to be here or elsewhere very quickly after FA opens.
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In order for the Phillies to get Yamamoto, the Phillies will have to overpay by a significant margin. Think 8/225 and that’s not even including the posting fees. With the posting fees, it’ll be closer to 8/260.
Is he going to be worth it? At that price, he better be.
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If Nola signs elsewhere; the west coast teams get Yamamoto-or even the Mets – which remaining free agent pitcher would you want ? I say Montgomery – no QO – Snell is maddening inconsistent and walks way too many. Monte is going to get a big payday and every team could have interest .
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From MLBTR, I think I’d be leaning towards a trade at that point, Dylan Cease, seems to have been brought up/sought after – looks like it could fit with a trout trade too. Castellanos & Bohm to CWS for Cease, LAA eats a lot of contract to get better prospects – Crawford, Abel, Rojas, and others
Sigh Hader or Hicks
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One of the really smart things the Phillies have done recently is not to unnecessarily surrender assets (valuable minor league players) for the opportunity to also pay a lot of money. That’s how you give yourself a short window of opportunity and screw up your farm system. Just pay the money. Much smarter and that’s what they’ve done.
That said, if someone were stupid enough to take Castellanos and Bohm for Cease that’s fine. Otherwise, just sign someone.
They need to be patient with Abel and avoid trading him almost at all costs. He is already good and his upside is enormous. A rotation with Abel and Painter that is cheap for years is what is going to keep this team competing well into the next decade. There is literally nothing in baseball more valuable that an early career, inexpensive star. They need to keep those guys coming.
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I think people on here need to curb their enthusiasm on Painter. If miracles still happen you might see him in 2025. My bet is 2026. Hope I’m wrong for his sake and the team’s, but that’s my take.
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It’s amazing when people don’t want their own players and feel that those same players have elite trading value. I can’t stress this enough, you have to give talent to get talent. The other teams have scouts too. There’s a reason why other teams traded for Hao Yu Lee and Ben Brown. So if we feel that Castallenos and Bohm are not worth it, they know it also, and you’ll have to lower your expectations.
Dylan Cease still has 2 years of control left. Mick Abel has to be part of that deal, no doubt.
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Pitching is going at a premium and even Jordan Montgomery will likely get 5/120. Is this the path to go with Abel and Painter waiting in the wings? Or should they sign a shorter deal with an older pitcher (Stroman) or go after a reclamation project (Martin Perez)?
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I feel confident the Phillies will feature a legit SP2 for 2024. They’re not going to cross their fingers on a guy like Martin Perez. He’s had maybe 1 year (during a long career) where he was SP2 worthy. Eduardo Rodriguez is a better option than Perez. They won’t waste a season of their core’s prime years by bargain shopping for a guy to slide in behind Zack Wheeler. That’s not Dave Dombrowski.
Each winter, Dombrowski targets a player, and then puts the full court press on. He’ll overpay if he has to.
If they can’t come to terms with Nola, he’ll pivot to Snell or Yamamoto, or look to make a trade.
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Another Japanese player posted… Naoyuki Uwasawa …..he may be the one Dombrowski may try to get though as per reports, the Texas Rangers, Diamondbacks and Reds had sent scouts to watch Uwasawa in action in September. The scouts returned with plenty of positives to report on the 29-year-old RHP.
The Kansas City Royals, Chicago Cubs, and Los Angeles Angels have also reportedly drawn interest in Uwasawa.
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Everyone check box score from yesterday’s World Series game. Montgomery and Perez’s stats do not warrant any long term or expensive investments. Sign Nola nothing better.
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I finally got around to reading the MLBTR assessment on the Phils. Understand the talk about Castellanos. I don’t think we trade him but I’ve been wrong before. But I don’t get the Bohm trade talk. Not everyone on here is a big fan, but we trade him and open another hole. We need contributions from our young guys. I think he made major strides and isn’t done improving. Just my opinion.
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matt…agree.
Trading Bohm creates another need…..the Phillies would then have to look at a free agent like Jeimer Candelario, who wil be on a few other teams target list……hr looks to be $14/15 M AAV player.
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